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The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    One of the problems with that, it is May’s Anus Horribilis before Boris Love, actually swept the nation. To be fair, Although Conservatives in power since 2010, Boris platform ran against the Cameron & May administrations to a degree as a fresh start. What we most wish to learn from these real votes is extent Boris love from last three years is becoming electorally unpopular?
    2018 was a 35/35/16 split.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was 2019 which was the protest election and even then the Conservatives were level with Labour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    The Scottish and Welsh elections last took place in 2017 - which was the big Conservative win during the 2017 GE campaign.
    Those are the BBC figures. Rallings and Thrasher had it Con 37%, Lab 36%, LD 14%.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,635
    Provisionally, I think Labour will hold Sunderland, with vote share down on 2018 though up on 2021.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,249
    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    OMG, Wordle is just taking the piss with its words now

    Wordle 320 5/6

    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Very common word for americans. The national pastime etc. Just about acceptable as a British word, in its second meaning, but very obscure. New puzzle in 4 mins…
    I don’t play wordle, but following your clues…is it FANNY?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,053

    TimT said:

    Reports that the two Russian tank brigades in the salient to the South of Izium are being withdrawn for regrouping after being heavily mauled. Not sure if this means the salient shrinks or is simply backfilled with additional cannon fodder.

    Which borough is Izium in?
    Hull?
    Don-baster
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,077
    Kind of exasperating how the pundits spend hours analysing Sunderland simply because there’s nothing else to talk about, whereas more interesting councils that report at (say) 2am get skipped over.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,325

    TimT said:

    Reports that the two Russian tank brigades in the salient to the South of Izium are being withdrawn for regrouping after being heavily mauled. Not sure if this means the salient shrinks or is simply backfilled with additional cannon fodder.

    Which borough is Izium in?
    Hull?
    Kharkiv South.

    Noted for its yellow peril.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Vera Lynn has been elected in Sunderland / St Peter's.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Sunderland

    Barnes

    Antony Mullen (Conservative Party) 1,637
    Abul Bakkar Ehthesham Haque (Labour Party) 1,329
    Tim Ellis (Liberal Democrat) 264
    Rachel Featherstone (Green Party) 212

    Doxford - Lib Dem GAIN

    Allen Curtis (Liberal Democrat) 1,511
    Steven Hansom (Labour and Co-operative Party) 851
    Tom Cuthbertson (Conservative Party) 565
    Richard Peter Bradley (Green Party) 115

    Big Dog vote still holding up in Labour heartlands?

    Lib Dems also now hurting Labour in red wall heartlands?

    I need to pee - stop all the counts!
    Doxford was Labour over the Tories by 57 votes in 2018. With LD nowhere.
    It was LD over Labour by 23% in 2021.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,325

    TimT said:

    Reports that the two Russian tank brigades in the salient to the South of Izium are being withdrawn for regrouping after being heavily mauled. Not sure if this means the salient shrinks or is simply backfilled with additional cannon fodder.

    The cannon fodder well is running dry:

    An aggressive draft campaign by the Russian-backed separatists who control parts of eastern Ukraine has emptied the area’s streets of military-age men, with many in hiding to avoid being sent to the frontline.

    In a sign of how desperate pro-Russia authorities are to bolster the ranks of fighters, in late March they announced that the upper age limit of the draft had been raised from 55 to 65 in Donetsk, local media reported. And on Saturday authorities announced a mobilisation in the region of Kherson, which was largely captured by Russia after the war began.

    Men who do not want to become cannon fodder in a war they do not support, against a country – Ukraine – that most of them still consider their own, are spending their days in hiding. Locals joke that they now live in a town of Amazons, run by women.

    Husbands, sons and brothers live in basements or locked indoors. They cannot stay in their own homes because registration is by address. Instead they stay at the homes of friends or relatives where no military-age men are listed as residents.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/donetsk-separatists-desperate-draft-campaign-empties-streets-of-men-ukraine
    If they are conscripted and given guns, their officers will need eyes in the back of their heads.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,936
    Radio 4 sounding pessimistic for the Tories. Expectation management might not have gone far enough!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    12 of the 24 Sunderland results we're getting tonight are in.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,249
    Roger said:

    Radio 4 sounding pessimistic for the Tories. Expectation management might not have gone far enough!

    It’s gonna be a Terrrrrrrible night for the Tories.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Wordle seems semi-appropriate for today's election results. One or two maybe seen on candidates at the counts.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    Roger said:

    Radio 4 sounding pessimistic for the Tories. Expectation management might not have gone far enough!

    Alternatively the expectations management has worked.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,077
    LibDem gain from the Tories in a district by-election in Oxfordshire: http://twitter.com/OxfordClarion/status/1522350865692205056
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,244
    edited May 5
    Roger said:

    Radio 4 sounding pessimistic for the Tories. Expectation management might not have gone far enough!

    Or they worked perfectly, in time for the morning…
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    Andy_JS said:

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    One of the problems with that, it is May’s Anus Horribilis before Boris Love, actually swept the nation. To be fair, Although Conservatives in power since 2010, Boris platform ran against the Cameron & May administrations to a degree as a fresh start. What we most wish to learn from these real votes is extent Boris love from last three years is becoming electorally unpopular?
    2018 was a 35/35/16 split.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was 2019 which was the protest election and even then the Conservatives were level with Labour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    The Scottish and Welsh elections last took place in 2017 - which was the big Conservative win during the 2017 GE campaign.
    Those are the BBC figures. Rallings and Thrasher had it Con 37%, Lab 36%, LD 14%.
    IIRC the R&T are what the official parliament data uses.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Kind of exasperating how the pundits spend hours analysing Sunderland simply because there’s nothing else to talk about, whereas more interesting councils that report at (say) 2am get skipped over.

    It's a little bit of influence for a place which doesn't have much.
    If more interesting Councils are narked, there is always the option of training up a super efficient delivery and counting team.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,244
    edited May 5
    dixiedean said:

    Kind of exasperating how the pundits spend hours analysing Sunderland simply because there’s nothing else to talk about, whereas more interesting councils that report at (say) 2am get skipped over.

    It's a little bit of influence for a place which doesn't have much.
    If more interesting Councils are narked, there is always the option of training up a super efficient delivery and counting team.
    In fairness, on Brexit night Sunderland was VERY interesting thanks to the spreadsheet on here.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    One of the problems with that, it is May’s Anus Horribilis before Boris Love, actually swept the nation. To be fair, Although Conservatives in power since 2010, Boris platform ran against the Cameron & May administrations to a degree as a fresh start. What we most wish to learn from these real votes is extent Boris love from last three years is becoming electorally unpopular?
    2018 was a 35/35/16 split.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was 2019 which was the protest election and even then the Conservatives were level with Labour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    The Scottish and Welsh elections last took place in 2017 - which was the big Conservative win during the 2017 GE campaign.
    2019 the conservatives lost 1300 seats?

    Let’s just say, the last 7 years have been extraordinary times? 🙂

    But what matters most here, what we can learn about 2024, and from early red wall results, Big Dog votes seem to be holding up well where he needs them?
    The 2019 election had both the largest number of councillors and these were previously contested in the big Conservative win of 2015.

    Each local election is different.
  • pingping Posts: 2,659
    Wordle 6/6
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    edited May 5
    Sunderland
    Labour hold St Ann's, which was lost by 3 votes in 2021

    Susan Watson (Labour Party) 1,061
    Bryan George Foster (Conservative Party) 840
    Raymond Moore (Green Party) 273
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,635
    Brandon Lewis concedes Wandsworth has gone to Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,249
    Twitter says Labour is doing OK in Sunderland but that OK in Sunderland suggests rather better in the rest of the Red Wall.

    And perhaps quite well in Westminster.
  • pingping Posts: 2,659
    edited May 5
    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    HOMER

    I assumed it was the Greek geezer. NYT n’all
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    HOMER
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 599
    43 seats in and the only party to make a net loss so far is Labour.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,635
    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    Homer (=baseball home run, though apparently it has a different meaning in the UK)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    Homer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    Homer.
    Is Homer Simpson a play on the word? I didn't know, if it is.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    edited May 5
    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    Do you really think "bunce" is a baseball term?

    EDIT - "Bunts" is, multiple of bunt
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,505
    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    Reports that the two Russian tank brigades in the salient to the South of Izium are being withdrawn for regrouping after being heavily mauled. Not sure if this means the salient shrinks or is simply backfilled with additional cannon fodder.

    The cannon fodder well is running dry:

    An aggressive draft campaign by the Russian-backed separatists who control parts of eastern Ukraine has emptied the area’s streets of military-age men, with many in hiding to avoid being sent to the frontline.

    In a sign of how desperate pro-Russia authorities are to bolster the ranks of fighters, in late March they announced that the upper age limit of the draft had been raised from 55 to 65 in Donetsk, local media reported. And on Saturday authorities announced a mobilisation in the region of Kherson, which was largely captured by Russia after the war began.

    Men who do not want to become cannon fodder in a war they do not support, against a country – Ukraine – that most of them still consider their own, are spending their days in hiding. Locals joke that they now live in a town of Amazons, run by women.

    Husbands, sons and brothers live in basements or locked indoors. They cannot stay in their own homes because registration is by address. Instead they stay at the homes of friends or relatives where no military-age men are listed as residents.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/donetsk-separatists-desperate-draft-campaign-empties-streets-of-men-ukraine
    If they are conscripted and given guns, their officers will need eyes in the back of their heads.
    It suggests Russia may not hold on to the Donbass cities long term.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    Homer.
    Is Homer Simpson a play on the word? I didn't know, if it is.
    Matt Groening named him Homer after his own father, Homer Groening
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    edited May 5
    In case anyone's waiting for Scottish and Welsh results, there won't be any tonight.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147
    Tories fail to unseat Labour leader of Mackemland Council.

    Labour hold control.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Twitter says Labour is doing OK in Sunderland but that OK in Sunderland suggests rather better in the rest of the Red Wall.

    And perhaps quite well in Westminster.

    Not sure there's a clear read through from Sunderland to Westminster.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I would like to say fairwell to the Tories in Wandsworth. Labour is in charge now
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    edited May 5
    Sunderland - Washington South

    Graeme Miller (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1, 454
    Peter Noble (Conservative Party) 1, 310

    it was a split ward last year.

    Miller is the council leader
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was yesterday's wordle ?

    Bunce ?

    Homer.
    Is Homer Simpson a play on the word? I didn't know, if it is.
    Matt Groening named him Homer after his own father, Homer Groening
    Q. What's Homer Simpson's favorite electoral system?

    A. D'ohndt!

    I think you need to spend a few days thinking very carefully about your life choices.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,936
    dixiedean said:

    Twitter says Labour is doing OK in Sunderland but that OK in Sunderland suggests rather better in the rest of the Red Wall.

    And perhaps quite well in Westminster.

    Not sure there's a clear read through from Sunderland to Westminster.
    Radio 4 saying the Tories are in big trouble
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,053
    dixiedean said:

    Twitter says Labour is doing OK in Sunderland but that OK in Sunderland suggests rather better in the rest of the Red Wall.

    And perhaps quite well in Westminster.

    Not sure there's a clear read through from Sunderland to Westminster.
    Washington on the other hand...
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Sunderland - Washington South

    Graeme Miller (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1, 454
    Peter Noble (Conservative Party) 1, 310

    it was a split ward last year.

    Miller is the council leader

    Swing to the Tories from 2018, mind.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,635
    Interesting swings from LD and Green to Lab since 2021 in Newcastle and Sunderland, but still good results for LDs coimpared with 2018. Layla Moran on LBC reporting big swings from Tories to LDs - tougher vs Labour.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    edited May 5
    My electoral porn is when there are fewer than 5 votes in it*. What's the closest we've had so far this evening?

    *1 is perfect. But I hate a draw. That's a sickener for the loser.
  • vinovino Posts: 119
    BBC

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Hat tip vote-2012
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Farooq said:

    My electoral porn is when there are fewer than 5 votes in it*. What's the closest we've had so far this evening?

    *1 is perfect. But I hate a draw. That's a sickener for the loser.

    Ryhope / Sunderland has just declared:

    Lab 1311
    Con 1283
    Grn 277
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Roger said:

    dixiedean said:

    Twitter says Labour is doing OK in Sunderland but that OK in Sunderland suggests rather better in the rest of the Red Wall.

    And perhaps quite well in Westminster.

    Not sure there's a clear read through from Sunderland to Westminster.
    Radio 4 saying the Tories are in big trouble
    Good. Right now Conservative fortunes are negatively correlated with the fortunes of the country. I hope the Tories get stuffed so hard tonight they prolapse.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    Sunderland finished

    LD +2
    Con -1
    Lab -1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%

    Is that from 18 or 21?
    It is a bit confusing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913
    Encouraging results from Sunderland for the Lib Dems and this could spell trouble for the Tories further south .
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Andy_JS said:

    Farooq said:

    My electoral porn is when there are fewer than 5 votes in it*. What's the closest we've had so far this evening?

    *1 is perfect. But I hate a draw. That's a sickener for the loser.

    Ryhope / Sunderland has just declared:

    Lab 1311
    Con 1283
    Grn 277
    Good info, thanks. I'm unstirred by this margin though. Let's have some real nail-biters!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    edited May 5
    One vote victory for the Tories in Daresbury / Halton.

    Apparently it was a tie to begin with, and they had to draw lots.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,077
    I see Han Dodges is as far removed from the plot as ever.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    Provisionally, I think Labour will hold Sunderland, with vote share down on 2018 though up on 2021.

    It’s good job BJK isn’t on here for this Labour wobble in Sunderland 🫢
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Sunderland finished

    LD +2
    Con -1
    Lab -1

    Wasn't even really close.
  • xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Does anyone really think Starmer is going to be Prime Minister based on these results so far? Labour vote going backwards in Sunderland. I don't think voters are happy with the Tories but I don't think they see Labour as an alternative government I think we are heading for 1992 with another Tory majority in 2024.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Andy_JS said:

    One vote victory for the Tories in Daresbury / Halton.

    Ohhhhhhhhhh baby that's the GOOD stuff
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,244

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    Must we? Why? Based on what?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    xxxxx5 said:

    Does anyone really think Starmer is going to be Prime Minister based on these results so far? Labour vote going backwards in Sunderland. I don't think voters are happy with the Tories but I don't think they see Labour as an alternative government I think we are heading for 1992 with another Tory majority in 2024.

    Yes.
    Don't read too much into one town.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,010
    Wordle 321 X/6

    ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
    🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜
    🟨🟩⬜⬜🟩
    ⬜🟩🟨⬜🟩
    ⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩

    And, right on cue, I fail.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    One vote victory for the Tories in Daresbury / Halton.

    Ohhhhhhhhhh baby that's the GOOD stuff
    Twitter is reporting this as a draw with a coin toss. I'm back to being distinctly unimpressed.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    Andy_JS said:

    One vote victory for the Tories in Daresbury / Halton.

    Apparently it was a tie to begin with, and they had to draw lots.

    Is that a Con gain from Green ?

    2021 seemed to have new boundaries:

    https://councillors.halton.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=201&RPID=28170393
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147

    Sunderland finished

    LD +2
    Con -1
    Lab -1

    Bozo's visit to Wearside paid dividends then.

    Bedtime for me...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    LOL!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    edited May 5
    Halton finished counting

    https://hbcnewsroom.co.uk/council-election-results/

    The Appleton result look strage. May have been put the numbers in the wrong rows

  • pingping Posts: 2,659
    What are the key shires declaring soon?

    I’m wondering if the main story of the night might be the LD’s eating into the Tory core vote…?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    edited May 5
    Farooq said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Does anyone really think Starmer is going to be Prime Minister based on these results so far? Labour vote going backwards in Sunderland. I don't think voters are happy with the Tories but I don't think they see Labour as an alternative government I think we are heading for 1992 with another Tory majority in 2024.

    Yes.
    Don't read too much into one town.
    Indeed. Labour can stand still in Sunderland. It's the LD's who have gone forward. Labour holds all 3 Westminster seats. With the Tories second.
    Nevertheless. A 1992 remains possible certainly.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Labour have been struggling in Sunderland for a few years but don't know why.

    Back in 2015 Labour won 24/25 in Sunderland.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Labour have been struggling in Sunderland for a few years but don't know why.

    Back in 2015 Labour won 24/25 in Sunderland.
    Love of Brexit. Love of Boris, love of levelling up agenda.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    Farooq said:

    My electoral porn is when there are fewer than 5 votes in it*. What's the closest we've had so far this evening?

    *1 is perfect. But I hate a draw. That's a sickener for the loser.

    Halton - Daresbury, Moore & Sandymoor
    Hutchinson Anna Christina Labour Party 398
    Kinchin Richard Stephen Green Party 372
    Davidson Sian Fiona Alexandra The Conservative Party 399 Elected
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,077
    edited May 5
    The hell is happening in South Tyneside? Three Green gains, two from Labour, one from Con.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    edited May 5

    The hell is happening in South Tyneside? Three Green gains from Labour.

    Beacon & Bents and Westpark were won by the Greens last year too. 18% and 20% majorities in 2021.
    Which is the third?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Is that from 18 or 21?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,077
    edited May 5

    The hell is happening in South Tyneside? Three Green gains from Labour.

    Beacon & Bents and Westpark were won by the Greens last year too.
    Which is the third?
    Cleadon & East Boldon but from Con - I misread it initially.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Labour have been struggling in Sunderland for a few years but don't know why.

    Back in 2015 Labour won 24/25 in Sunderland.
    Love of Brexit. Love of Boris, love of levelling up agenda.
    Aspects possibly.

    But Sunderland has shown more general anti-Labour voting in local elections.

    Which suggests some issue with how the council is run.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    edited May 5

    The hell is happening in South Tyneside? Three Green gains from Labour.

    Beacon & Bents and Westpark were won by the Greens last year too.
    Which is the third?
    Cleadon & East Boldon but from Con - I misread it initially.

    That qualifies as a surprise as the Greens polled 13% in 2021
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466

    Farooq said:

    My electoral porn is when there are fewer than 5 votes in it*. What's the closest we've had so far this evening?

    *1 is perfect. But I hate a draw. That's a sickener for the loser.

    Halton - Daresbury, Moore & Sandymoor
    Hutchinson Anna Christina Labour Party 398
    Kinchin Richard Stephen Green Party 372
    Davidson Sian Fiona Alexandra The Conservative Party 399 Elected
    29 votes off winning; finished last. Epic result for the Green candidate.
  • vinovino Posts: 119
    dixiedean said:

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Is that from 18 or 21?
    I'm assuming it's from 18
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Labour have been struggling in Sunderland for a few years but don't know why.

    Back in 2015 Labour won 24/25 in Sunderland.
    Love of Brexit. Love of Boris, love of levelling up agenda.
    Aspects possibly.

    But Sunderland has shown more general anti-Labour voting in local elections.

    Which suggests some issue with how the council is run.
    Local factors we are ignoring! 👍🏻
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    South Tyneside finished

    Lab 14 (including the double vacancy) (-4)
    Ind 2 (+2)
    Greens 3 (+3)
    Con 0 (-1)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,635
    vino said:

    dixiedean said:

    That is it. The Red Wall is lost and Labour has officially overcome Brexit.

    We must now consider the odds of a Labour landslide.

    What are you babbling about ???
    Vote share shows a bit of a wobble for Labour. Mid term. Despite everything

    Sunderland, change in share of vote:

    Lab -3%
    Con +0.3%
    LD +4%
    Ind -2%
    Is that from 18 or 21?
    I'm assuming it's from 18
    Yes, Labour doing significantly better than 21 in Sunderland, but worse than 2018. Good Green results in South Tyneside, gains from both Lab and Con.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Popular vote, Sunderland:

    Lab 29,628
    Con 20,602
    LD 10,294
    Green 4,410
    Ind 1,457
    Freedom Alliance 120
    Communist 30

    Lab 44.5%
    Con 31.0%
    LD 15.5%
    Green 6.6%
    Ind 2.2%
  • xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Another swing against Labour in the North East are Labour becoming just a party of London? I cannot see Starmer becoming Prime Minister.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    The hell is happening in South Tyneside? Three Green gains, two from Labour, one from Con.

    It’s not going the way labour we’re hoping for up North. surprising considering opinion poll north sub samples have been promising for Labour all year so far.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,077
    Greens having a belter of a night. Just picked up a ward in Nuneaton.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    xxxxx5 said:

    Another swing against Labour in the North East are Labour becoming just a party of London? I cannot see Starmer becoming Prime Minister.

    This sunlit uplands from Brexit and levelling up factor is going to take quite a few more years to unwind, at least in a few key places.
  • xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Remarkable result from Nuneaton -
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 142
    Andy_JS said:

    Vera Lynn has been elected in Sunderland / St Peter's.

    The poor lass is actually Lynn Vera - a blue bird but a long way from the white cliffs of Dover : https://www.sunderlandconservatives.org.uk/people/lynn-vera
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,936
    nico679 said:

    Encouraging results from Sunderland for the Lib Dems and this could spell trouble for the Tories further south .

    Sounding like the Red Wall are coming to the Tories aid but elsewhere a dismal night
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913
    Seems there was some drama in Worcester where the Tory council leader had a meltdown and buggered off home .
  • xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Voters in Nuneaton sticking two fingers up at the main stream media and their poster boy Sir Keir
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325
    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Encouraging results from Sunderland for the Lib Dems and this could spell trouble for the Tories further south .

    Sounding like the Red Wall are coming to the Tories aid but elsewhere a dismal night
    Nevermind Roger, you don't need all that riff raff in the north anyway! ;)
This discussion has been closed.