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The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    RobD said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Voters in Nuneaton sticking two fingers up at the main stream media and their poster boy Sir Keir

    Is it Tory policy to blame the “main stream media” now?
    Do you think Tory policy is dictated by an anonymous user on PB?
    Yes, in that I assume he’s a paid astroturfer operating from a bunker in Tufton Street.
    I’d guessed St Petersburg, to be honest.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    Hans Christian Andersen didn't get a fairytale result for the LD's in Benwell and Scotswood.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456

    RobD said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Voters in Nuneaton sticking two fingers up at the main stream media and their poster boy Sir Keir

    Is it Tory policy to blame the “main stream media” now?
    Do you think Tory policy is dictated by an anonymous user on PB?
    Yes, in that I assume he’s a paid astroturfer operating from a bunker in Tufton Street.
    No, it's overwhelmingly more likely that he isn't.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    What’s actually happening in Nuneaton?
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    tory gain in Bolton
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,763
    Bede (Nuneaton & Bedworth) election result:

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    Con: 48.6% (+4.4)
    Lab: 44.0% (-2.1)
    Grn: 7.4% (+7.4)
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    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2022
    Raab must be odds on to lose his seat in the GE, shirley?

    Whenever the LD’s go for it in the blue wall, they meet a receptive audience.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    El_Sid said:

    BBC -
    Professor Sir John Curtice

    There are signs of a Liberal Democrat advance in the "Blue Wall" territory of Brentwood, in Essex.

    In the first five wards declared, their vote was up by 19 percentage points compared with 2018, and by 5 points compared with last year. Meanwhile the Conservatives are down by 2 - 3 points compared with both years.

    Is that all the Tory drop is? 😕
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Would be funny if Keir ended up losing his job after lacklustre council results.
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    xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Arguably the worst result of the night for Labour (so far) losing seats in Bolton pretty much confirms Labour have failed to win back any red wall voters, if anything more have gone Tory.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Bede (Nuneaton & Bedworth) election result:

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    Con: 48.6% (+4.4)
    Lab: 44.0% (-2.1)
    Grn: 7.4% (+7.4)

    Gosh that’s tight. Minuscule numbers made a big result
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    ping said:

    Raab must be odds on to lose his seat in the GE, shirley?

    Whenever the LD’s go for it in the blue wall, they meet a receptive audience.

    Unless he chicken runs
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438
    Labour making gains from Tories in Worcester.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663
    xxxxx5 said:

    Arguably the worst result of the night for Labour (so far) losing seats in Bolton pretty much confirms Labour have failed to win back any red wall voters, if anything more have gone Tory.

    Hardly any results are in and you’re always going to get local factors . It’s too early to say .
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Don't think this local election tells us anything much either way about the general election... but this certainly doesn't feel like one of those seminal local elections like 1995/1996 or 2006/2007...
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    another tory gain in Harlow - from Labour
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    Changes so far, council seats:

    Lab -6
    Con -4
    LD +5
    Green +4
    Ind +1
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228

    Labour making gains from Tories in Worcester.

    Although no declarations have been made yet.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,763
    vino said:

    another tory gain in Harlow - from Labour

    It's reminiscent of the local elections when loads of Tories were preparing a coup against IDS and then had to backtrack when the results turned out to be pretty good.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,228
    edited May 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    Don't think this local election tells us anything much either way about the general election... but this certainly doesn't feel like one of those seminal local elections like 1995/1996 or 2006/2007...

    No, it doesn't, although London may prove different.

    Northern Ireland will likely be first, second and third headline if Sinn Fein win - which perhaps both main party leaders will be happy about.

    Boris isn't going anywhere immediately.

    Back to Sue...
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited May 2022

    I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.

    It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.

    I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
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    xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Labour share either goes green or Tory.

    Acid test looks to be where it goes the most.
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    xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Will there be pressure Nick for Starmer to go as the results were not great this time last year as he lost Hartlepool 12 months ago.
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    nico679 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Arguably the worst result of the night for Labour (so far) losing seats in Bolton pretty much confirms Labour have failed to win back any red wall voters, if anything more have gone Tory.

    Hardly any results are in and you’re always going to get local factors . It’s too early to say .
    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1522365801277399040
    "We know, that just on the vote switching from our poll taken today, Labour gets back to roughly neck-and-neck, i.e. the position they were in in when English seats were last fought in 2018. BUT!!!

    There will still be some realignment within this. Since 2018 Labour and Tories voter coalition has changed quite substantially (most notably, Leave voters have moved towards Con, Remain voters have moved towards Lab) so we will still be seeing some of this play through tonight.

    AND!

    The big unknown we still have is turnout. There is an expectation that more Tory voters won't bother to vote than Labour voters...but we really can't tell until we get more results in.

    My best guess at this stage is that both of the above is happening, and it is canceling out in some of the earlier Leave-leaning areas (which is why we are seeing small swings to Con's so far).

    When everything plays out, I think we will end up with a small lab lead.
    "
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Over 200 seats declared so far:

    Lab = Down 5
    Con = Down 2
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663

    I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.

    It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.

    I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
    People are less likely to vote tactically in council elections , come a GE things will be different . But the trend at the moment looks like the Lib Dems could cause a lot of problems for the Tories in the south .
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    pingping Posts: 3,805

    I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.

    It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.

    I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
    The greens in my part of the midlands are in chaos. A councillor allegedly sexually harassed a very loud green trans activist. The allegations went all over Twitter and blew apart the - hitherto rather effective - local party. It’s now all out war. On Twitter.

    They really are their own worst enemy, these greens.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    edited May 2022
    MikeL said:

    Over 200 seats declared so far:

    Lab = Down 5
    Con = Down 2

    I look forward to the spin on this, if it remains the picture throughout the night and tomorrow.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    nico679 said:

    I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.

    It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.

    I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
    People are less likely to vote tactically in council elections , come a GE things will be different . But the trend at the moment looks like the Lib Dems could cause a lot of problems for the Tories in the south .
    It was the greens voting green in general election I was referring to.

    News from Prof Curtis
    There has been no sign so far of turnout falling compared with previous local elections.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    Labour gain from Tories in Peterborough
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    Over 200 seats declared so far:

    Lab = Down 5
    Con = Down 2

    I look forward to the spin on this, if it remains the picture throughout the night and tomorrow.
    BJO will be on the war path in the morningl! :D
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    Tories hold Nuneaton and Bedworth Council - bbc
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    xxxxx5 said:

    Will there be pressure Nick for Starmer to go as the results were not great this time last year as he lost Hartlepool 12 months ago.

    According to prof Curtice results currently show a 1% swing from Labour to Conservatives. And that’s quite a lot of red wall seats declared now.

    Also according to Prof Curtice, There has been no sign so far of turnout falling compared with previous local elections. So despite all expectations of stay at home Disgruntled voters, Tories have clearly got their vote out.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Approx 280 seats declared:

    Lab = Down 8
    Con = Down 2

    I guess nothing yet in from London which will probably be worse for Con - but even so pretty good for Con.

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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    No sign yet of currygate-induced outrage in the Balti heartland of the West Midlands:

    Quarry Bank and Dudley Wood (Dudley) election result:

    Labour HOLD.

    Lab: 51.8% (+6.8)
    Con: 39.7% (-1.2)
    LDem: 8.5% (+6.2)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    Sky News:

    Lab -11 seats
    Con +4 seats
    LD +3 seats
    Green +3 seats
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605

    xxxxx5 said:

    Will there be pressure Nick for Starmer to go as the results were not great this time last year as he lost Hartlepool 12 months ago.

    According to prof Curtice results currently show a 1% swing from Labour to Conservatives.
    LOL! Really?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    edited May 2022
    BBC Key Ward Analysis so far (all outside London) - vote share change since 2018:

    Lab -1
    Con -2
    LD +3
    Green +2
    UKIP -1
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    looks like another tory gain from Labour in Harlow
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    three on the trot - posts
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Will there be pressure Nick for Starmer to go as the results were not great this time last year as he lost Hartlepool 12 months ago.

    According to prof Curtice results currently show a 1% swing from Labour to Conservatives.
    LOL! Really?
    I'm not surprised at all. The blob is always utterly out of touch with the rest of the country.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456
    Epping Forest is a CON hold, @HYUFD you can stand down the tank division.

    :D
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    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    What is everyone's final prediction for total Tory seat loses?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    In Oldham Labour council leader lost to the Conservative candidate in her ward.

    Second year in a row with council leader ousted here.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Tory’s getting bullish about taking Sutton from the Libdems 🙁
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Over 300 seats now declared - that must be a good sample, EXCEPT contains little or no London:

    Lab = Down 8
    Con = Down 11

    And of course even if Lab does well in London, there are few Con marginals in London.
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    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    BBC has just jumped Tory loses from -4 to -11
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    Bush Fair (Harlow) Conservative GAIN from Labour by 4 votes for those counting

    Voting turnout: 27.64%
    Marco Lorenzini Conservative 678 ELECTED
    Kay Morrison Labour 674
    Jennifer Steadman Green Party 116
    William Tennison Liberal Democrats 47

    https://www.harlow.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/latest-election-news
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    Over 200 seats declared so far:

    Lab = Down 5
    Con = Down 2

    I look forward to the spin on this, if it remains the picture throughout the night and tomorrow.
    BJO will be on the war path in the morningl! :D
    Good job he’s not flipping here!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456

    Tory’s getting bullish about taking Sutton from the Libdems 🙁

    That sees unlikely given the current composition.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    closer to home - tory gain from Labour in Amber Valley
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    Labour still struggling in Leave areas. That pretty much sums it up IMO.
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    vinovino Posts: 158

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    It does to me - former Labour voters like me still feel betrayed by Labour on Brexit
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    RobD said:

    Tory’s getting bullish about taking Sutton from the Libdems 🙁

    That sees unlikely given the current composition.
    You could get 5/1 on the LDs losing control until a few hours ago.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    El_Sid said:

    Bush Fair (Harlow) Conservative GAIN from Labour by 4 votes for those counting

    Voting turnout: 27.64%
    Marco Lorenzini Conservative 678 ELECTED
    Kay Morrison Labour 674
    Jennifer Steadman Green Party 116
    William Tennison Liberal Democrats 47

    https://www.harlow.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/latest-election-news

    Thanks, I'll add it to the spreadsheet.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    ping said:

    I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.

    It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.

    I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
    The greens in my part of the midlands are in chaos. A councillor allegedly sexually harassed a very loud green trans activist. The allegations went all over Twitter and blew apart the - hitherto rather effective - local party. It’s now all out war. On Twitter.

    They really are their own worst enemy, these greens.
    They are nuts. What’s this about the revolution eats it’s own. Sensible long standing greens are getting eaten by weird undernourished vegan wokists. Libdem and Labour can’t rely on these people for support, they are now on a mission.
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    How many Labour supporters on this site voted leave? none?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    This all seems incredibly low key for a Government in mid-term in complete disarray with the economy looking dreadful.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    Sky News — LDs saying they've won Hull.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,620
    vino said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    It does to me - former Labour voters like me still feel betrayed by Labour on Brexit
    Also Starmer drinking in Durham and the fact that Labour have no idea how to address any of the economic problems the country faces - in fact it would probably make them even worse in a number of ways.

    Centre-left politics is all about spending more of other people's money, and, as Brown found out, when there is none, it has nothing to say.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    Leave areas don't trust the man most associated with "people's vote" / trying to cancel Brexit?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663
    Interesting reports coming in from the south coast .

    BBC reporter hearing from Tories in Portsmouth that it could be a bloodbath there !
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    xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    The tories who are currently ensuring the worst cost of living crisis in a generation and potentially leading the country into a recession are still doing better than Labour. This just shows what a mess the Labour Party is in and that Keir isn’t the man to bring the W for labour.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,488
    El_Sid said:

    Bush Fair (Harlow) Conservative GAIN from Labour by 4 votes for those counting

    Voting turnout: 27.64%
    Marco Lorenzini Conservative 678 ELECTED
    Kay Morrison Labour 674
    Jennifer Steadman Green Party 116
    William Tennison Liberal Democrats 47

    https://www.harlow.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/latest-election-news

    Pro Brexit areas still holding up relatively well for the Tories. Better in London for Labour and the LDs having a good night so far.

    In Epping Forest the only Tory loss was Theydon Bois to the LDs by a very narrow margin
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    vinovino Posts: 158
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    Leave areas don't trust the man most associated with "people's vote" / trying to cancel Brexit?
    Nail on head
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Lib-Dem's back in business. Setting up the next Con-Lib coalition around 2040? ;)
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    xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Should Mike's next thread be about a market for Starmers exit, rather than Boris?
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    ping said:

    I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.

    It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.

    I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
    The greens in my part of the midlands are in chaos. A councillor allegedly sexually harassed a very loud green trans activist. The allegations went all over Twitter and blew apart the - hitherto rather effective - local party. It’s now all out war. On Twitter.

    They really are their own worst enemy, these greens.
    They are nuts. What’s this about the revolution eats it’s own. Sensible long standing greens are getting eaten by weird undernourished vegan wokists. Libdem and Labour can’t rely on these people for support, they are now on a mission.
    Flipping eck. I’m beginning to sound just like Leon. Maybe I’m getting old.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News — LDs saying they've won Hull.

    Wow! Take that. Take it. We give it to you, you take it. Suck it down Starmer. Suck it down.

    Jiggle them baby, jiggle them!

    I’m jiggling jiggling!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456
    Not sure that Labour have gained a single seat yet.

    Still early days, with 20/146 councils in.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    vino said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    Leave areas don't trust the man most associated with "people's vote" / trying to cancel Brexit?
    Nail on head
    Brexit Brexit bloody Brexit. It’s still alive and well in English and Wales voting. The country still has Boris beating through its veins 🙁 🙁 🙁
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Livestream from Coventry count for those interested

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUzEr5JtuFU
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456
    Ah, with that 3 pop up in Redditch.
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    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2022

    Livestream from Coventry count for those interested

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUzEr5JtuFU

    Niche
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    Popular vote, Harlow:

    Con 8,945
    Lab 7,182
    Green 1,779
    Harlow Alliance 461
    LD 47
    TUSC 46

    Con 48.5%
    Lab 38.9%
    Green 9.6%
    Harlow Alliance 2.5%
    LD 0.3%
    TUSC 0.2%
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456
    Why are the BBC Sky etc results websites so bad? I want to see gains/losses and net, and a matrix of who gained how many seats off which party. It's not difficult.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    ping said:

    Livestream from Coventry count for those interested

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUzEr5JtuFU

    Niche
    Not at all.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663
    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,278
    Hull, the place where they used to weigh the vote for the likes of Alan Johnson and John Prescott....
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Hull:

    LD 2 gains from Lab so far.

    LD need 3 gains for control.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456
    nico679 said:

    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

    Based on...? Wheels coming off implies worse than predictions.
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    vinovino Posts: 158

    vino said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    Leave areas don't trust the man most associated with "people's vote" / trying to cancel Brexit?
    Nail on head
    Brexit Brexit bloody Brexit. It’s still alive and well in English and Wales voting. The country still has Boris beating through its veins 🙁 🙁 🙁
    The main parties let all the leave voters down until Boris came on the scene - voters will not forget - it's a strange world for when Boris goes BIG - G will vote Conservative again and I will vote Green - never Labour
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-61235136?pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:c28b6c99-5999-4b34-b267-bf548ed6bcea

    Kit Malthouse (NW Hampshire) :
    “It’s been tricky, hard. I’m preparing myself for a thumping”
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Hull, the place where they used to weigh the vote for the likes of Alan Johnson and John Prescott....

    Suck it down!
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663
    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

    Based on...? Wheels coming off implies worse than predictions.
    Earlier they seemed they might do better than expectations , now not so.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    nico679 said:

    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

    Based on London results?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456
    nico679 said:

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

    Based on...? Wheels coming off implies worse than predictions.
    Earlier they seemed they might do better than expectations , now not so.
    What's that assessment based on? After an OK start implies it was a recent result that changed it.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    425 seats now declared:

    Lab - Down 10
    Con - Down 13
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    Sky News, council seat changes:

    Lab -10
    Con -8
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    LDs take Queens Park in Tandridge by 3 votes from the Tories.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    It's going to be 1992/2005 - a reduced majority and one last hurrah for Con...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,300
    Totally off topic.

    Has everyone seen that there is a video of a naked Madison Cawthorn rubbing his bare "bits" on another man's face while groaning.

    There's nothing wrong with that behaviour, as it's just two consenting adults, etc.

    But I do find the way - in today's Republican Party - he's busy making possibly the least persuasive "I'm not gay, this is just a things guys do all the time" line I think I've ever heard.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Was this in the script?

    Royton North (Oldham) election result:

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    Con: 47.4% (+7.6)
    Lab: 40.1% (-7.7)
    LDem: 5.9% (-1.7)
    Grn: 3.6% (-1.2)
    Oth: 3.1% (+3.1)


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1522381111124537344
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    It's going to be 1992/2005 - a reduced majority and one last hurrah for Con...
    If so, will Lab give Starmer a second chance?

    It's rare these days to get a second chance, but just maybe they might.
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    Spectacular result for the Green in Plympton Chaddlewood (Plymouth), coming from nowhere to split the big 2 with 57.7% of the vote. Is there a local effect to do with nuclear submarines?

    Turnout: 35.7%
    Candidate Party Votes
    Christopher James Cuddihee Labour Party 163 -23.6%
    Glenn Robert Jordan Conservative Party 770 -26.4%
    Ian Andrew Poyser Green Party 1,273 +57.7%

    https://www.plymouth.gov.uk/votingandelections/elections2022/localelections2022/localelectionresults2022
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