Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

123457»

Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Hull, the place where they used to weigh the vote for the likes of Alan Johnson and John Prescott....

    Suck it down!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,730
    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

    Based on...? Wheels coming off implies worse than predictions.
    Earlier they seemed they might do better than expectations , now not so.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,377
    nico679 said:

    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

    Based on London results?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,434
    nico679 said:

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    After an okay start for the Tories the wheels look like they’re coming off now .

    Based on...? Wheels coming off implies worse than predictions.
    Earlier they seemed they might do better than expectations , now not so.
    What's that assessment based on? After an OK start implies it was a recent result that changed it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    425 seats now declared:

    Lab - Down 10
    Con - Down 13
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,377
    Sky News, council seat changes:

    Lab -10
    Con -8
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,377
    LDs take Queens Park in Tandridge by 3 votes from the Tories.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,171
    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    It's going to be 1992/2005 - a reduced majority and one last hurrah for Con...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,307
    Totally off topic.

    Has everyone seen that there is a video of a naked Madison Cawthorn rubbing his bare "bits" on another man's face while groaning.

    There's nothing wrong with that behaviour, as it's just two consenting adults, etc.

    But I do find the way - in today's Republican Party - he's busy making possibly the least persuasive "I'm not gay, this is just a things guys do all the time" line I think I've ever heard.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    Was this in the script?

    Royton North (Oldham) election result:

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    Con: 47.4% (+7.6)
    Lab: 40.1% (-7.7)
    LDem: 5.9% (-1.7)
    Grn: 3.6% (-1.2)
    Oth: 3.1% (+3.1)


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1522381111124537344
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    It's going to be 1992/2005 - a reduced majority and one last hurrah for Con...
    If so, will Lab give Starmer a second chance?

    It's rare these days to get a second chance, but just maybe they might.
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 142
    Spectacular result for the Green in Plympton Chaddlewood (Plymouth), coming from nowhere to split the big 2 with 57.7% of the vote. Is there a local effect to do with nuclear submarines?

    Turnout: 35.7%
    Candidate Party Votes
    Christopher James Cuddihee Labour Party 163 -23.6%
    Glenn Robert Jordan Conservative Party 770 -26.4%
    Ian Andrew Poyser Green Party 1,273 +57.7%

    https://www.plymouth.gov.uk/votingandelections/elections2022/localelections2022/localelectionresults2022
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,307
    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    I'm not even sure they have that many realistic targets. They have perhaps half a dozen really good opportunities and another dozen longer shots.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,033
    vino said:

    vino said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Thurrock — Con hold

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -3 seat

    Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
    Leave areas don't trust the man most associated with "people's vote" / trying to cancel Brexit?
    Nail on head
    Brexit Brexit bloody Brexit. It’s still alive and well in English and Wales voting. The country still has Boris beating through its veins 🙁 🙁 🙁
    The main parties let all the leave voters down until Boris came on the scene - voters will not forget
    Well, a third of voters won't forget. It's up to the other two thirds to remove the numpties from power.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,377
    Professor Michael Thrasher on Sky News very pessimistic about Labour's performance and prospects for the next election. Doing well in Barnet and Wandsworth isn't enough he says.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    Jiggle them baby, jiggle them. Hull biggest result ever!

    INCOMING!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    Feels as if Ashworth is desperately clutching at straws.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off topic.

    Has everyone seen that there is a video of a naked Madison Cawthorn rubbing his bare "bits" on another man's face while groaning.

    There's nothing wrong with that behaviour, as it's just two consenting adults, etc.

    But I do find the way - in today's Republican Party - he's busy making possibly the least persuasive "I'm not gay, this is just a things guys do all the time" line I think I've ever heard.

    There were no parties.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,171
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    It's going to be 1992/2005 - a reduced majority and one last hurrah for Con...
    If so, will Lab give Starmer a second chance?

    It's rare these days to get a second chance, but just maybe they might.
    No, Starmer will be done in 2023/2024 I think.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    It's going to be 1992/2005 - a reduced majority and one last hurrah for Con...
    If so, will Lab give Starmer a second chance?

    It's rare these days to get a second chance, but just maybe they might.
    Nope.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,171
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    I'm not even sure they have that many realistic targets. They have perhaps half a dozen really good opportunities and another dozen longer shots.
    Remember, the Lib-Dems ALWAYS underperform in general elections - Even their best general election result in 2005 was disappointing compared to what might have been...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    Con MPs are surely never going to challenge Boris after this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,307
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    I'm not even sure they have that many realistic targets. They have perhaps half a dozen really good opportunities and another dozen longer shots.
    Remember, the Lib-Dems ALWAYS underperform in general elections - Even their best general election result in 2005 was disappointing compared to what might have been...
    1997 saw massive outperformance.

    Other than that, yes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 6
    Tories not getting a kicking i think is bad for everybody. Democracy is best when poor governance is held to account and there is a strong opposition who the people have some faith they could govern instead.
  • vinovino Posts: 102

    Tories not getting a kicking i think is bad for everybody. Democracy is best when poor governance is held to account and there is a strong opposition who the people have some faith they could govern instead.

    Agree - but don't blame the voters
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,222
    MikeL said:

    Con MPs are surely never going to challenge Boris after this.

    its a bit early for that sort of prediction. - I reckon its a 50/50 call whether a leadership challenge goes ahead
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 6
    vino said:

    Tories not getting a kicking i think is bad for everybody. Democracy is best when poor governance is held to account and there is a strong opposition who the people have some faith they could govern instead.

    Agree - but don't blame the voters
    I haven't. If they don't get a kick up the arse, it is because the public don't believe both parts are true.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 475
    Pure speculation, but could the war in Ukraine be hurting Labour, with voters who remember Corbyn? (Opinion on the Ukraine war appears to hardening in the US, with majorities now ready to accept higher gas prices as a consequence of tougher sanctions.)
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,730
    Just over 500 seats declared and yet some seem to be calling this as not a bad night for Johnson .

    Nearly 4000 more seats to go !
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    edited May 6
    With lot more results to play with now Prof Curtice is still saying Labour 1% down on 2018 Corbyn Labour. 😯
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 116
    MikeL said:

    Con MPs are surely never going to challenge Boris after this.

    tide is looking like it is turning, especially with alot of london vote to come

    Tories looking at 300-400 lose i would say, not as bad as it could have been, but not good by any means.

    Big thing is that Labour might end up losing seats, which in my opinion would be total disaster.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    BBC News - Cocaine found in coffee sent to Nespresso plant
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61343037

    I thought i had a bit more of a pep in my step recently....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC talking about how well LDs are doing - but surely key point is they only have 25 to 30 realistic targets at GE.

    Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.

    It's going to be 1992/2005 - a reduced majority and one last hurrah for Con...
    If so, will Lab give Starmer a second chance?

    It's rare these days to get a second chance, but just maybe they might.
    No, Starmer will be done in 2023/2024 I think.
    He should still be able to survive this bad night though and lead Labour into the election.

    But he has just not won over a single leave voter where he needs them, so next General Election should see a working majority for Boris unless Labour can somehow do something about it.
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 142
    Another factor is seats like Pitsea NW (Basildon) which in 2014 saw UKIP winning with 45.1% of the vote and Tories third with 16.7%, and then Labour come through the middle with 47.2% in 2018 with the Tories in second with 32.3% and UKIP third with 16.9%, has tonight seen the Tories beat Labour 47.1% to 46.1%.

    Labour vote has held up pretty well (previously they had mostly been in the 30-35% range), all that's happened is that there's no UKIP and almost all their vote has gone to the Tories.

    https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/3732/
    https://www.basildonmeetings.info/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=282&RPID=17293364
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,730

    MikeL said:

    Con MPs are surely never going to challenge Boris after this.

    tide is looking like it is turning, especially with alot of london vote to come

    Tories looking at 300-400 lose i would say, not as bad as it could have been, but not good by any means.

    Big thing is that Labour might end up losing seats, which in my opinion would be total disaster.
    Labour will gain seats , no chance they end up with a net loss .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,377
    Sky News just showed a live declaration, from Southfields / Wandsworth. Very rare event for local elections.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 116
    nico679 said:

    MikeL said:

    Con MPs are surely never going to challenge Boris after this.

    tide is looking like it is turning, especially with alot of london vote to come

    Tories looking at 300-400 lose i would say, not as bad as it could have been, but not good by any means.

    Big thing is that Labour might end up losing seats, which in my opinion would be total disaster.
    Labour will gain seats , no chance they end up with a net loss .
    How many do you think they will gain?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    El_Sid said:

    Another factor is seats like Pitsea NW (Basildon) which in 2014 saw UKIP winning with 45.1% of the vote and Tories third with 16.7%, and then Labour come through the middle with 47.2% in 2018 with the Tories in second with 32.3% and UKIP third with 16.9%, has tonight seen the Tories beat Labour 47.1% to 46.1%.

    Labour vote has held up pretty well (previously they had mostly been in the 30-35% range), all that's happened is that there's no UKIP and almost all their vote has gone to the Tories.

    https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/3732/
    https://www.basildonmeetings.info/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=282&RPID=17293364

    Is it too glib to conclude, not a single leave voter trusts Starmer, Lamy and the Labour front bench, they are sticking with Boris?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,307

    NEW THREAD!

  • OliverPBOliverPB Posts: 2
    Early days but this looks like a disaster for Labour given the state of the government and the wider political context.

    There’s an obsession with the “leave voter” or Corbyn (stull!) but the real reason seems obvious: Starmer is crap. Really, really crap.

    And it could be argued he’s just the leader and face of a Parliamentary Labour Party that is really really crap. They certainly seem content with his leadership.

    Look forward to how this is spun. A reminder that Labour’s 2018’s results were regarded as disappointing at the time, so it’s not like the comparison is a high watermark either.
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 142

    El_Sid said:

    Another factor is seats like Pitsea NW (Basildon) which in 2014 saw UKIP winning with 45.1% of the vote and Tories third with 16.7%, and then Labour come through the middle with 47.2% in 2018 with the Tories in second with 32.3% and UKIP third with 16.9%, has tonight seen the Tories beat Labour 47.1% to 46.1%.

    Labour vote has held up pretty well (previously they had mostly been in the 30-35% range), all that's happened is that there's no UKIP and almost all their vote has gone to the Tories.

    https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/3732/
    https://www.basildonmeetings.info/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=282&RPID=17293364

    Is it too glib to conclude, not a single leave voter trusts Starmer, Lamy and the Labour front bench, they are sticking with Boris?
    Yes.

    Basildon voted 69:31 to Leave, so assuming no differential turnout effects then Labour must be getting some Leavers to get to 46.1% today.

    But it's rather more complex than that, although Leave/Remain are convenient labels it's more about the factors that led people to vote Leave/Remain, for instance the Rwanda stuff will have gone down very well with some audiences and Labour haven't really offered those audiences anything equally eye-catching (not that "eye-catching" and "effective" are often bedfellows).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    nico679 said:

    MikeL said:

    Con MPs are surely never going to challenge Boris after this.

    tide is looking like it is turning, especially with alot of london vote to come

    Tories looking at 300-400 lose i would say, not as bad as it could have been, but not good by any means.

    Big thing is that Labour might end up losing seats, which in my opinion would be total disaster.
    Labour will gain seats , no chance they end up with a net loss .
    How many do you think they will gain?
    The rate Labour are losing councillors to libdem and green and Tories, hardly taking a thing off the Tories, it’s a brave call to say labour won’t end up in negative territory.
    But clarify the bailiwick- just England or include Wales and Scotland.
    Labour also in negative territory on vote share v 2018.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    El_Sid said:

    El_Sid said:

    Another factor is seats like Pitsea NW (Basildon) which in 2014 saw UKIP winning with 45.1% of the vote and Tories third with 16.7%, and then Labour come through the middle with 47.2% in 2018 with the Tories in second with 32.3% and UKIP third with 16.9%, has tonight seen the Tories beat Labour 47.1% to 46.1%.

    Labour vote has held up pretty well (previously they had mostly been in the 30-35% range), all that's happened is that there's no UKIP and almost all their vote has gone to the Tories.

    https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/3732/
    https://www.basildonmeetings.info/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=282&RPID=17293364

    Is it too glib to conclude, not a single leave voter trusts Starmer, Lamy and the Labour front bench, they are sticking with Boris?
    Yes.

    Basildon voted 69:31 to Leave, so assuming no differential turnout effects then Labour must be getting some Leavers to get to 46.1% today.

    But it's rather more complex than that, although Leave/Remain are convenient labels it's more about the factors that led people to vote Leave/Remain, for instance the Rwanda stuff will have gone down very well with some audiences and Labour haven't really offered those audiences anything equally eye-catching (not that "eye-catching" and "effective" are often bedfellows).
    Yes I can go along with that. If you could meet me part then way and concede yes some leavers switching to Labour, but the interest is more the amount that’s not not amount that are?
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 142

    El_Sid said:

    El_Sid said:

    Another factor is seats like Pitsea NW (Basildon) which in 2014 saw UKIP winning with 45.1% of the vote and Tories third with 16.7%, and then Labour come through the middle with 47.2% in 2018 with the Tories in second with 32.3% and UKIP third with 16.9%, has tonight seen the Tories beat Labour 47.1% to 46.1%.

    Labour vote has held up pretty well (previously they had mostly been in the 30-35% range), all that's happened is that there's no UKIP and almost all their vote has gone to the Tories.

    https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/3732/
    https://www.basildonmeetings.info/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=282&RPID=17293364

    Is it too glib to conclude, not a single leave voter trusts Starmer, Lamy and the Labour front bench, they are sticking with Boris?
    Yes.

    Basildon voted 69:31 to Leave, so assuming no differential turnout effects then Labour must be getting some Leavers to get to 46.1% today.

    But it's rather more complex than that, although Leave/Remain are convenient labels it's more about the factors that led people to vote Leave/Remain, for instance the Rwanda stuff will have gone down very well with some audiences and Labour haven't really offered those audiences anything equally eye-catching (not that "eye-catching" and "effective" are often bedfellows).
    Yes I can go along with that. If you could meet me part then way and concede yes some leavers switching to Labour, but the interest is more the amount that’s not not amount that are?
    I think both parties are stuck with the legacy of their party leaders in dealing with the parties that were outflanking them circa 2015. Johnson is enabled by Cameron's decisions which (regardless of the effect on the country) eliminated the Tories' competition to their right by out-UKIPing UKIP and now gives them the freedom to become a tax & spend party without worrying too much about losing those who care about fiscal discipline, whereas Labour are stuck with the legacy of Corbyn, who had the opportunity to wipe out their competition but didn't, and so Starmer is now constrained by the fact that if he goes too "Leavey", his gains will be outweighed by his losses to the LDs and Greens.

    So he's constrained by that space, all he can really hope to do is just push the case for "change" by looking like a plausible PM and trying to move the conversation away from that kind of Leave vs Remain dichotomy which will always favour the one party on one side rather than the three parties on the other side. But moving the conversation is hard to do as an Opposition leader - although it's striking looking at some of the recent coverage of 25 years since 1997, just how much Blair wanted to do compared to the listlessness of the incumbents.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,572
    edited May 6
    Snip
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,327
    A few years ago the early results from the north were ok for the tories but the southern results were horrendous. I look forward to reading through the thread to see if theres a pattern this time.
This discussion has been closed.