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The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,111

    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Apparently it was Rachel Maclean, who's a minister in the Home Office.

    image
    Striking look!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,171

    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Apparently it was Rachel Maclean, who's a minister in the Home Office.

    image
    I would have thought Roger would appreciate someone "theatrical/eccentric" like Rach?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,737
    edited May 5
    Brandon Lewis clearly got the memo.
    Saying it was expected that Labour would make 800 gains!
    Ludicrous.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    edited May 5
    First (?) declaration

    Halton, Central & West Bank ward

    Noel Hutchinson Labour Party 633
    Colleen Mary Harper The Conservative Party 106
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513

    1941 really marks the hinge point between Pax Britannica and the American century, even if American power and influence had been blindingly obvious since at least 1918.

    Did the Americans exploit the situation to get their hands on UK assets? Broadly, yes.

    Did they also hasten the end of imperial dreams? Certainly at Suez, and probably in myriad subtle ways too.

    I can’t say I know much about how America considers the UK strategically, especially now our job as occasional horse-whisperer to Europe has gone.

    I think we’re chiefly seen as a reliable partner for when a show of multilateralism is required, or as a useful voice to sound out various positions which the US can plausibly deny.

    I imagine (I don’t really know) that British diplomatic influence in the US is as good as it gets, on a par with the Canadians and the Israelis. To the extent that means much.

    I think it will become more significant in the years to come but that's because Pax Americana is on the decline now too so they won't be able to act unilaterally and will need reliable allies more.
    The premise of Peter Zeihan’s thinking is indeed that American is unwilling (but not unable) to maintain the global order.

    I think this is true-ish. I don’t see the USA retreating from South East Asia at all, and NATO has just been given a shot in the arm.

    Less important regions might see the rise of new power brokers, but I can’t see much of an opportunity for enhanced U.K. influence.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    Tomorrows papers actually all splash the story in the same way, rather oddly they are all the same and don’t disagree or put positive spin on it.

    As I explained in a recent post in this thread, bad economic news is not necessarily a Labour bounce - in 1992 the voters preferred incumbents to manage the recession and the recovery better. Arguably without a early nineties recession against a different backdrop, Labours tax raising public spending manifesto might even have won? So this looming recession might actually kill off Labours chances.

    Many of the front pages predict unemployment to rise to 5.5% - I don’t know if Saint Bart can allow himself to call That stagflation, after all as it doesn’t sound like full employment or unemployment standing still.

    Two different political bits caught my eye amongst the red lines on white graphs.

    Was the Rwanda plan just a local election gimmick?

    image

    image
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Apparently it was Rachel Maclean, who's a minister in the Home Office.

    image
    I would have thought Roger would appreciate someone "theatrical/eccentric" like Rach?
    Do the WIGGLE everyone!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Apparently it was Rachel Maclean, who's a minister in the Home Office.

    image
    I would have thought Roger would appreciate someone "theatrical/eccentric" like Rach?
    When I close my eyes, this is actually what Roger looks like.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Safeguarding.

    Apparently.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    edited May 5

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377

    First (?) declaration

    Halton, Central & West Bank ward

    Noel Hutchinson Labour Party 633
    Colleen Mary Harper The Conservative Party 106

    2021 result:

    Pamela Wallace Labour Party 535 30% Elected
    Stan Hill Labour Party 478 26% Elected
    Noel Hutchinson Labour Party 429 24% Elected
    Joanne Lesley McLean The Conservative Party Candidate 140 8% Not elected
    Romana Aleksandra Coveney Liberal Democrats 113 6% Not elected
    John Grant Fifield The Conservative Party Candidate 111 6% Not elected
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    According to Sky News this is the ward where the counting centre is situated.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,094

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084

    Sean_F said:

    ..

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
    I don't blame anyone in Ukraine for fighting the invasion. I merely state that there is absolutely a point at which supporting their continued brave resistance becomes untenable. Everyone, and every polity, must decide where their personal and collective point is.
    One might very reasonably claim exactly the opposite. That there is a point at which continuing the invasion becomes untenable. I personally think that is a far more likely outcome than the one you seem to prefer.
    No, that's undoutedly true too, of course it is. It may or may not be a likelier outcome.
    Don't you think that the likelihood of that outcome might be influenced by the level of support Ukraine gets from its allies?

    I think even you would argue that US support for Britain during WW2 was in its narrow national interest so it is possible to combine being on the right side and being strategic.
    US support for Britain afaicg involved selling us what we needed, at full price, for which we liquidated the Empire, and put the rest on our credit card, which we paid over the next decades. Of course that was in their national interest.

    Their support after war was declared on them lead to them having bases all over the UK, and created a permanent defence alliance with a junior partner, one that as late as the 30's had been a serious economical competitor and geopolitical player.

    I can't see the resemblance to the current situation.
    The Lend Lease stuff was on the basis of send it back, or keep it for 10% of price, plus a loan to pay for it below the market rate. Those loans were some of the cheapest bits of the National Debt - which is why they were kept for so many years.

    The skill with which UK post war government blew the oceans of money the Americans threw at us was impressive.
    Emblematic perhaps of the US view of original AND current Lend-Lease, is that when Royal Navy took possession of first destroyers transferred over by the US, British sailors found that the US Navy had fully stocked the ships with armament, fuel and provisions, including some rich and rare to Limey tars.

    My understanding is that there was in fact a huge desire in the USA after the end of the war to return home, and *not* act as the World's policeman, and to leave it to the UK and France to keep the Soviet Union in check. For a time, the UK in the late forties had the world's biggest navy, by some margin.

    It was the fact the UK and France could not afford this role, combined with the Berlin blockade and the fall of China, that pushed the US into taking the lead role in opposing Communism.
    I’d like to see some evidence of this, as it’s not what I thought.

    Can you recommend a book?
    Find a strategic plan between 1945 and the start of Korea, for the US would be a bit hard. There wasn't much of a plan as such.

    The desire to pivot the economy back to civilian production fitted with the idea that nearly all the exiting military equipment was obsolete. So massive scraping programs as various research programs on jets, submarines etc moved ahead.

    The thread through all of this was that the Bomb would win wars. The role of conventional arms was up for grabs - but couched in terms of what would be shape of the military that would be mobilised to over a long war, rather than a huge standing military. So the peacetime military shrank and shrank.

    Basically, the Bomb would win the next war. If it didn't, Detroit would do its thing, again.

    Then Korea happened.....
    US did in fact have a strategic plan in 1947-50 for dealing with Soviets - Containment.

    As exemplified and amplified by massive, successful response to the Berlin Blockade via the Berlin Airlift. Also by less prominent but equally successful efforts by US government (including CIA) to thwart Communist electoral ambitions in France and esp. Italy. Plus support for Yugoslavia following Tito's break with Stalin in 1948. And formation of NATO and Council of Europe in 1949.

    So things went reasonably according to plan in Europe. However, Asia was a different story.

    Communist victory and establishment of Peoples Republic of China on mainland in 1949 was a severe challenge to containment and the Truman administration, the beginning of "Who lost China?"

    North Korean invasion of South Korea in June 1950 was yet another, even more shocking assault on containment, esp. as US Secretary of State had NOT included the peninsula when HE drew the line publicly shortly prior to armed attack.

    As Korean War ebbed and followed, a new strategic idea emerged for US foreign policy - rollback.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,034

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Rutland politics are a bit like Powys. Lots of chippy Independents and old-school Bufton-Tufton Tories. I believe they now have a Green elected on the platform of opposing a solar farm. It’s that sort of place.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321
    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Rachel Maclean, MP for Redditch.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377
    edited May 5
    Silksworth, Sunderland

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321
    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.

    I’m holding out for Westminster.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    Silksworth in 2018 was 52 to 32%.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377
    edited May 5

    Silksworth, Sunderland

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    2021 result:

    Labour Pat Smith 1,120 42.6 +5.1
    Conservative Jack Simm 1,073 40.8 +21.1
    Green Chris Crozier 180 6.8 -2.8
    Liberal Democrats Sharon Boddy 136 5.2 N/A
    UKIP Ian Walton 123 4.7 -23.4

    Interesting because the Labour was thought at risk of losing their majority in Sunderland (Andrew Teale's analysis speculates about that).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,111

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Rutland politics are a bit like Powys. Lots of chippy Independents and old-school Bufton-Tufton Tories. I believe they now have a Green elected on the platform of opposing a solar farm. It’s that sort of place.
    Opposing solar farms is just plain good sense. If you are standing for election anywhere close to where it is being built. Lots of 'support, but this is not the right place for it' votes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Good to see you here again Andrea
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,655

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ..

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
    I don't blame anyone in Ukraine for fighting the invasion. I merely state that there is absolutely a point at which supporting their continued brave resistance becomes untenable. Everyone, and every polity, must decide where their personal and collective point is.
    One might very reasonably claim exactly the opposite. That there is a point at which continuing the invasion becomes untenable. I personally think that is a far more likely outcome than the one you seem to prefer.
    No, that's undoutedly true too, of course it is. It may or may not be a likelier outcome.
    Don't you think that the likelihood of that outcome might be influenced by the level of support Ukraine gets from its allies?

    I think even you would argue that US support for Britain during WW2 was in its narrow national interest so it is possible to combine being on the right side and being strategic.
    US support for Britain afaicg involved selling us what we needed, at full price, for which we liquidated the Empire, and put the rest on our credit card, which we paid over the next decades. Of course that was in their national interest.

    Their support after war was declared on them lead to them having bases all over the UK, and created a permanent defence alliance with a junior partner, one that as late as the 30's had been a serious economical competitor and geopolitical player.

    I can't see the resemblance to the current situation.
    The Lend Lease stuff was on the basis of send it back, or keep it for 10% of price, plus a loan to pay for it below the market rate. Those loans were some of the cheapest bits of the National Debt - which is why they were kept for so many years.

    The skill with which UK post war government blew the oceans of money the Americans threw at us was impressive.
    Emblematic perhaps of the US view of original AND current Lend-Lease, is that when Royal Navy took possession of first destroyers transferred over by the US, British sailors found that the US Navy had fully stocked the ships with armament, fuel and provisions, including some rich and rare to Limey tars.

    My understanding is that there was in fact a huge desire in the USA after the end of the war to return home, and *not* act as the World's policeman, and to leave it to the UK and France to keep the Soviet Union in check. For a time, the UK in the late forties had the world's biggest navy, by some margin.

    It was the fact the UK and France could not afford this role, combined with the Berlin blockade and the fall of China, that pushed the US into taking the lead role in opposing Communism.
    At the end of the WW2, the Americans would have had many more carriers than the UK, so is that true?
    Apparently yes. Quick googling shows that at the end of WW2 the US fleet had grown from 700 vessels in 1941 to more than 6,000 including 99 carriers.

    But the Royal Navy at the end of WW2 consisted of 16 battleships, 52 carriers—though most of these were small escort or merchant carriers—62 cruisers, 257 destroyers, 131 submarines and 9,000 other ships. So they were, at least on paper, still considerably larger.
    Bigger by number of vessels, but I'm not convinced it would be true by tonnage.

    A quick search of Wikipedia shows the UK had remarkably few "real" carriers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_Royal_Navy

    The number of British carriers that survived until the end of WW2 appears to be 26. (Although there were a further 5 or 6 of the Colossus class that came on immediately after the war.
    Pretty sure a large number of the smaller RN escort carriers and convoy escorts would have been scrapped shortly after the end of the war, for obvious reasons.
    A number of aircraft carriers ended up in Commonwealth Navies.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321
    Good result for Labour in Sunderland.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky News results show starts at 11pm.

    Are there any results or just pointless speculation?

    Lots of the latter. I'm off to bed soon.
    The meat of the results come tomorrow.
    Although the narrative is spun overnight. But it will be partial (in both senses) bollocks.
    Aren't you staying up for Wandsworth? 😊
    Labour are certain to take Wandsworth. The local results are just moving into line with the Parliamentary results.
    Would be a massive scalp. Has been Tory for 40+ years IIRC, and is a Tory flagship borough.

    We'll see what happens.
    Labour actually outpolled the Conservatives in 2018, and only fell short by a whisker.

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky News results show starts at 11pm.

    Are there any results or just pointless speculation?

    Lots of the latter. I'm off to bed soon.
    The meat of the results come tomorrow.
    Although the narrative is spun overnight. But it will be partial (in both senses) bollocks.
    Aren't you staying up for Wandsworth? 😊
    Labour are certain to take Wandsworth. The local results are just moving into line with the Parliamentary results.
    Nick Watt just said that Labour think a lot of the wards will be on a knife edge and will be won by 20 votes or so.

    Sounds like recount territory if that prediction holds.
    If that is so, then it would suggest a very small swing, compared to 2018.
    So what is a real coup for Labour, if Wandsworth low lying fruit? Barnet they have never had? They seem to be calling that early. What is further up scale surprisingly good territory?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,788
    3-0 to the red team so far, including the one in Sefton, so a good time to go to bed.

    I don't think any party will have that much to crow about when the overall results are in, but I expect some specific results may shake the Tories a bit. Looks like Barnet could be one, and I think Worthing could well go red.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    Roger said:

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Good to see you here again Andrea
    Hello Roger. I hope you are well too.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,638

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Yeah Andrea, on your toes as per usual.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,737

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    10.6% from 2021 I make it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,035
    Andy_JS said:

    Good result for Labour in Sunderland.

    A big swing from 2021 but only a slight swing from 2018.

    https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2018/56/

    But does suggest that Labour should hold the council.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    Which would make it a huge swing of 2%?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Rutland politics are a bit like Powys. Lots of chippy Independents and old-school Bufton-Tufton Tories. I believe they now have a Green elected on the platform of opposing a solar farm. It’s that sort of place.
    Rutland is for Lovers - Obviously
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,222

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Rutland politics are a bit like Powys. Lots of chippy Independents and old-school Bufton-Tufton Tories. I believe they now have a Green elected on the platform of opposing a solar farm. It’s that sort of place.
    Ha, my parents live in Rutland. Could be a fun conversation at the weekend…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321
    "@BBCEssex
    First results declared in Basildon:

    Crouch ward - Conservative HOLD (1311 votes v Labour 408. Turnout 25.8%)

    Lee Chapel North - Labour GAIN from non-aligned (1006 votes v Con 649, Reform UK 157. Turnout 17.95%)"
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,737
    edited May 5
    OMG, Wordle is just taking the piss with its words now

    Wordle 320 5/6

    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,470

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    "FPTP, unfair but fast". Like the builder in Fawlty Towers who was "not good but cheap".
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,638
    edited May 5

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    rubbish, they should have a result by the end of the days counting. In Scotland the results are scanned in and the final decision takes a matter of a couple of hours.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,932

    Well Sam Coates on Sky says "Labour have bagged Barnet". So make of that what you will.

    A big scalp?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Safeguarding.

    Apparently.
    Safeguarding? Who needs safeguarding? Boris?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    My most un-rigorous guess-timation was, a +5% swing for Labour or thereabouts?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.

    I’m holding out for Westminster.
    What is the news from there?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 596

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    rubbish, they should have a result by the end of the days counting.
    I think that was slightly tongue in cheek.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,034
    .
    Sandpit said:

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Rutland politics are a bit like Powys. Lots of chippy Independents and old-school Bufton-Tufton Tories. I believe they now have a Green elected on the platform of opposing a solar farm. It’s that sort of place.
    Ha, my parents live in Rutland. Could be a fun conversation at the weekend…
    It’s a great place. I grew up there and would happily move back to Uppingham. But don’t go anywhere near the politics.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    2 more Sunderland declarations

    Shiney Row

    Mel Speding (Labour Party) 1,658
    Richard Steven Vardy (Conservative Party) 882
    Thomas Alexander Mower (Green Party) 345
    Michael Anthony Kennedy (Freedom Alliance) 120

    St Michael's

    Michael Dixon (Conservative Party) 1,832
    Chris Smith (Labour Party) 1,201
    John Leonard Appleton (Green Party) 231
    Colin Andrew Wilson (Liberal Democrat) 139
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,168

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    Some of us prefer the right result, rather than a quick one.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    look at Newsnight. They have a Tory Minister with Blue rosette huge green specs yellow t-shirt and an electric purple jacket. Anyone know who she is? Minister for circus performers?

    Safeguarding.

    Apparently.
    Safeguarding? Who needs safeguarding? Boris?
    Needs a keeper. With taser AND cattle prod readily to hand.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,655
    edited May 5

    Sean_F said:

    ..

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
    I don't blame anyone in Ukraine for fighting the invasion. I merely state that there is absolutely a point at which supporting their continued brave resistance becomes untenable. Everyone, and every polity, must decide where their personal and collective point is.
    One might very reasonably claim exactly the opposite. That there is a point at which continuing the invasion becomes untenable. I personally think that is a far more likely outcome than the one you seem to prefer.
    No, that's undoutedly true too, of course it is. It may or may not be a likelier outcome.
    Don't you think that the likelihood of that outcome might be influenced by the level of support Ukraine gets from its allies?

    I think even you would argue that US support for Britain during WW2 was in its narrow national interest so it is possible to combine being on the right side and being strategic.
    US support for Britain afaicg involved selling us what we needed, at full price, for which we liquidated the Empire, and put the rest on our credit card, which we paid over the next decades. Of course that was in their national interest.

    Their support after war was declared on them lead to them having bases all over the UK, and created a permanent defence alliance with a junior partner, one that as late as the 30's had been a serious economical competitor and geopolitical player.

    I can't see the resemblance to the current situation.
    The Lend Lease stuff was on the basis of send it back, or keep it for 10% of price, plus a loan to pay for it below the market rate. Those loans were some of the cheapest bits of the National Debt - which is why they were kept for so many years.

    The skill with which UK post war government blew the oceans of money the Americans threw at us was impressive.
    Emblematic perhaps of the US view of original AND current Lend-Lease, is that when Royal Navy took possession of first destroyers transferred over by the US, British sailors found that the US Navy had fully stocked the ships with armament, fuel and provisions, including some rich and rare to Limey tars.

    My understanding is that there was in fact a huge desire in the USA after the end of the war to return home, and *not* act as the World's policeman, and to leave it to the UK and France to keep the Soviet Union in check. For a time, the UK in the late forties had the world's biggest navy, by some margin.

    It was the fact the UK and France could not afford this role, combined with the Berlin blockade and the fall of China, that pushed the US into taking the lead role in opposing Communism.
    I’d like to see some evidence of this, as it’s not what I thought.

    Can you recommend a book?
    Find a strategic plan between 1945 and the start of Korea, for the US would be a bit hard. There wasn't much of a plan as such.

    The desire to pivot the economy back to civilian production fitted with the idea that nearly all the exiting military equipment was obsolete. So massive scraping programs as various research programs on jets, submarines etc moved ahead.

    The thread through all of this was that the Bomb would win wars. The role of conventional arms was up for grabs - but couched in terms of what would be shape of the military that would be mobilised to over a long war, rather than a huge standing military. So the peacetime military shrank and shrank.

    Basically, the Bomb would win the next war. If it didn't, Detroit would do its thing, again.

    Then Korea happened.....
    US did in fact have a strategic plan in 1947-50 for dealing with Soviets - Containment.

    As exemplified and amplified by massive, successful response to the Berlin Blockade via the Berlin Airlift. Also by less prominent but equally successful efforts by US government (including CIA) to thwart Communist electoral ambitions in France and esp. Italy. Plus support for Yugoslavia following Tito's break with Stalin in 1948. And formation of NATO and Council of Europe in 1949.

    So things went reasonably according to plan in Europe. However, Asia was a different story.

    Communist victory and establishment of Peoples Republic of China on mainland in 1949 was a severe challenge to containment and the Truman administration, the beginning of "Who lost China?"

    North Korean invasion of South Korea in June 1950 was yet another, even more shocking assault on containment, esp. as US Secretary of State had NOT included the peninsula when HE drew the line publicly shortly prior to armed attack.

    As Korean War ebbed and followed, a new strategic idea emerged for US foreign policy - rollback.

    I always find it very striking how rarely discussed in the west the staggering casualty rates from the western bombing of Korea are, as one of the first moment of offence rather than containment of the "cold" war. At least *one million* deaths, possibly more.

    This is crucial to understanding the particular form the derangement and paranoia of the North Korean regime takes.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    EPG said:

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    "FPTP, unfair but fast". Like the builder in Fawlty Towers who was "not good but cheap".
    Personally I’m sold on the German system, or more specifically the (I think) Hessian variant that was recommended by some august body or another.

    I’ll save it for the PR thread promised by TSE.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,737
    Am turning off and turning in. There are actual results, but no MSM (AFAICS) is actually reporting them. Merely playing pre-prepared speculation. I know there has only been one Sunderland ward called. But it is 100% more useful evidence than what a journalist in London thinks about Sunderland. Or a vox pop.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377
    edited May 5
    Basildon results:

    Lee Chapel North (Basildon) election result compared with 2018:

    Lab: 55.5% (-0.2)
    Con: 35.8% (+9.3)
    Ref: 8.7% (+8.7)

    Decent Tory result there.

    and Crouch in Basildon too:

    Con: 76.3% (+2.1)
    Lab: 23.7% (+5.0)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.

    I’m holding out for Westminster.
    What is the news from there?
    Dunno.
    But it’s beautifully balmy in Central Park.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,737

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky News results show starts at 11pm.

    Are there any results or just pointless speculation?

    Lots of the latter. I'm off to bed soon.
    The meat of the results come tomorrow.
    Although the narrative is spun overnight. But it will be partial (in both senses) bollocks.
    Aren't you staying up for Wandsworth? 😊
    Labour are certain to take Wandsworth. The local results are just moving into line with the Parliamentary results.
    Would be a massive scalp. Has been Tory for 40+ years IIRC, and is a Tory flagship borough.

    We'll see what happens.
    Labour actually outpolled the Conservatives in 2018, and only fell short by a whisker.

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky News results show starts at 11pm.

    Are there any results or just pointless speculation?

    Lots of the latter. I'm off to bed soon.
    The meat of the results come tomorrow.
    Although the narrative is spun overnight. But it will be partial (in both senses) bollocks.
    Aren't you staying up for Wandsworth? 😊
    Labour are certain to take Wandsworth. The local results are just moving into line with the Parliamentary results.
    Nick Watt just said that Labour think a lot of the wards will be on a knife edge and will be won by 20 votes or so.

    Sounds like recount territory if that prediction holds.
    If that is so, then it would suggest a very small swing, compared to 2018.
    So what is a real coup for Labour, if Wandsworth low lying fruit? Barnet they have never had? They seem to be calling that early. What is further up scale surprisingly good territory?
    Westminster.would be big.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    One of the problems with that, it is May’s Anus Horribilis before Boris Love, actually swept the nation. To be fair, Although Conservatives in power since 2010, Boris platform ran against the Cameron & May administrations to a degree as a fresh start. What we most wish to learn from these real votes is extent Boris love from last three years is becoming electorally unpopular?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky News results show starts at 11pm.

    Are there any results or just pointless speculation?

    Lots of the latter. I'm off to bed soon.
    The meat of the results come tomorrow.
    Although the narrative is spun overnight. But it will be partial (in both senses) bollocks.
    Aren't you staying up for Wandsworth? 😊
    Labour are certain to take Wandsworth. The local results are just moving into line with the Parliamentary results.
    Would be a massive scalp. Has been Tory for 40+ years IIRC, and is a Tory flagship borough.

    We'll see what happens.
    Labour actually outpolled the Conservatives in 2018, and only fell short by a whisker.

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky News results show starts at 11pm.

    Are there any results or just pointless speculation?

    Lots of the latter. I'm off to bed soon.
    The meat of the results come tomorrow.
    Although the narrative is spun overnight. But it will be partial (in both senses) bollocks.
    Aren't you staying up for Wandsworth? 😊
    Labour are certain to take Wandsworth. The local results are just moving into line with the Parliamentary results.
    Nick Watt just said that Labour think a lot of the wards will be on a knife edge and will be won by 20 votes or so.

    Sounds like recount territory if that prediction holds.
    If that is so, then it would suggest a very small swing, compared to 2018.
    So what is a real coup for Labour, if Wandsworth low lying fruit? Barnet they have never had? They seem to be calling that early. What is further up scale surprisingly good territory?
    Westminster.would be big.
    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh go the audience.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,932

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    I think it is awful. I'm a d'Hondt fan.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.

    I’m holding out for Westminster.
    Westminster and Wandsworth used tio have the lowest council tax in London despite being two of the wealthiest boroughs. It would be quite an achievment to take them both
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    Sunderland again

    Hetton

    Claire Marilyn Rowntree (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,230
    David William Geddis (Independent) 991
    Adelle Burnicle (Conservative Party) 339
    John Anthony Lennox (Liberal Democrat) 168

    Hendon

    Michael Mordey (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,087
    Tom Livingstone (Liberal Democrat) 909
    Syed Ajmol Ali (Conservative Party) 281
    Helmut Izaks (Green Party) 104

    LDs won Hendon in 2021
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,496

    Basildon results:

    Lee Chapel North (Basildon) election result compared with 2018:

    Lab: 55.5% (-0.2)
    Con: 35.8% (+9.3)
    Ref: 8.7% (+8.7)

    Decent Tory result there.

    and Crouch in Basildon too:

    Con: 76.3% (+2.1)
    Lab: 23.7% (+5.0)

    Lee Chapel North had a fairly chunky UKIP vote in 2018 (about 18 %). So it looks like the Conservatives have hoovered up a decent slice of that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,737
    Shiney Row is a great name. However you pronounce the second half.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.

    I’m holding out for Westminster.
    Westminster and Wandsworth used tio have the lowest council tax in London despite being two of the wealthiest boroughs. It would be quite an achievment to take them both
    Westminster would be great.

    The council has been run like a rotten boroughs forever.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Seems like he was being generous to his former party by not wanting to damage their election campaign.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.

    I’m holding out for Westminster.
    What is the news from there?
    Dunno.
    But it’s beautifully balmy in Central Park.
    Thanks for that. 😆
  • timpletimple Posts: 87

    EPG said:

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    "FPTP, unfair but fast". Like the builder in Fawlty Towers who was "not good but cheap".
    Personally I’m sold on the German system, or more specifically the (I think) Hessian variant that was recommended by some august body or another.

    I’ll save it for the PR thread promised by TSE.
    STV - Perhaps they simply need to use computers to speed up the result calculation.......
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377

    2 more Sunderland declarations

    Shiney Row

    Mel Speding (Labour Party) 1,658
    Richard Steven Vardy (Conservative Party) 882
    Thomas Alexander Mower (Green Party) 345
    Michael Anthony Kennedy (Freedom Alliance) 120

    St Michael's

    Michael Dixon (Conservative Party) 1,832
    Chris Smith (Labour Party) 1,201
    John Leonard Appleton (Green Party) 231
    Colin Andrew Wilson (Liberal Democrat) 139

    2021:

    Shiney Row
    Labour Katherine Mason-Gage 1,639 50.9 +12.1
    Labour David Snowdon 1,190 36.9 -1.9
    Conservative Grant Shearer 1,069 33.2 +18.0
    Conservative Richard Vardy 1,026 31.8 +16.6
    Green Raymond Moore 223 6.9 -0.3
    UKIP Kay Rowham 197 6.1 -19.8
    Green Robert Welsh 176 5.5 -1.7
    Liberal Democrats Nana Boddy 170 5.3 -0.4

    St Michaels

    Conservative Lyall Reed 1,958 57.1 +6.4
    Labour Chris Smith 902 26.3 +5.2
    Green John Appleton 455 13.3 +3.0
    Liberal Democrats Colin Wilson 117 3.4 -2.1
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    One of the problems with that, it is May’s Anus Horribilis before Boris Love, actually swept the nation. To be fair, Although Conservatives in power since 2010, Boris platform ran against the Cameron & May administrations to a degree as a fresh start. What we most wish to learn from these real votes is extent Boris love from last three years is becoming electorally unpopular?
    Please don’t refer to May’s anus while I am preparing dinner, thanks.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,638
    Andy_JS said:

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Seems like he was being generous to his former party by not wanting to damage their election campaign.
    Rutland not up this year.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321

    Andy_JS said:

    The Rutland council leader has just announced that he's resigning from the Conservatives and hopes to continue qs leader as an independdent. Curious moment to mention it.

    Seems like he was being generous to his former party by not wanting to damage their election campaign.
    Rutland not up this year.
    The national campaign for the Tories.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437

    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories and Labour both saying Barnet has gone to Labour.

    I’m holding out for Westminster.
    Westminster and Wandsworth used tio have the lowest council tax in London despite being two of the wealthiest boroughs. It would be quite an achievment to take them both
    Westminster would be great.

    The council has been run like a rotten boroughs forever.
    Cons to win it at 1.4 on BF looks like a great price to me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,180

    EPG said:

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    "FPTP, unfair but fast". Like the builder in Fawlty Towers who was "not good but cheap".
    Personally I’m sold on the German system, or more specifically the (I think) Hessian variant that was recommended by some august body or another.
    Is that the one where you get a hangover bonus?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321

    2 more Sunderland declarations

    Shiney Row

    Mel Speding (Labour Party) 1,658
    Richard Steven Vardy (Conservative Party) 882
    Thomas Alexander Mower (Green Party) 345
    Michael Anthony Kennedy (Freedom Alliance) 120

    St Michael's

    Michael Dixon (Conservative Party) 1,832
    Chris Smith (Labour Party) 1,201
    John Leonard Appleton (Green Party) 231
    Colin Andrew Wilson (Liberal Democrat) 139

    2021:

    Shiney Row
    Labour Katherine Mason-Gage 1,639 50.9 +12.1
    Labour David Snowdon 1,190 36.9 -1.9
    Conservative Grant Shearer 1,069 33.2 +18.0
    Conservative Richard Vardy 1,026 31.8 +16.6
    Green Raymond Moore 223 6.9 -0.3
    UKIP Kay Rowham 197 6.1 -19.8
    Green Robert Welsh 176 5.5 -1.7
    Liberal Democrats Nana Boddy 170 5.3 -0.4

    St Michaels

    Conservative Lyall Reed 1,958 57.1 +6.4
    Labour Chris Smith 902 26.3 +5.2
    Green John Appleton 455 13.3 +3.0
    Liberal Democrats Colin Wilson 117 3.4 -2.1
    Most of the media is comparing results to 2018 rather than 2021 but it's a matter of opinion which is best.
  • pingping Posts: 2,412
    edited May 5
    CatMan said:

    OMG, Wordle is just taking the piss with its words now

    Wordle 320 5/6

    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Lol

    I assumed it was past midnight. Took me 4 guesses before I realised… those letters look familiar….
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,655

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    I think it is awful. I'm a d'Hondt fan.
    d'Hondt leave me this way
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,305
    Darth Putin
    @DarthPutinKGB
    ·
    12h
    Weeks - 10
    Victories - 0
    Sanctions - ♾
    Economy - 🚽
    Oil embargo - Pending
    Supply dumps in Russia - Exploding
    Generals - Dead
    Army - Advancing backwards
    Le Pen - Lost
    9 May parade - Not in Kiev

    I remain a master strategist
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377
    More Sunderland from VoteUK:

    Hetton

    Claire Marilyn Rowntree (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,230
    David William Geddis (Independent) 991
    Adelle Burnicle (Conservative Party) 339
    John Anthony Lennox (Liberal Democrat) 168

    Hendon

    Michael Mordey (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,087
    Tom Livingstone (Liberal Democrat) 909
    Syed Ajmol Ali (Conservative Party) 281
    Helmut Izaks (Green Party) 104


    LDs won Hendon in 2021 so a swing back from LD to Lab.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    NeilVW said:

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    rubbish, they should have a result by the end of the days counting.
    I think that was slightly tongue in cheek.
    It couldn’t be a more painful system STV. Essentially, aside from your own support, who does everyone else hate and fear least? It’s merits I suppose every vote is sacred, every vote is good, not a vote is wasted in that neighbourhood? So in extremely tribal or sectarian places, maybe it’s not such a bad system?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377

    More Sunderland from VoteUK:

    Hetton

    Claire Marilyn Rowntree (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,230
    David William Geddis (Independent) 991
    Adelle Burnicle (Conservative Party) 339
    John Anthony Lennox (Liberal Democrat) 168

    Hendon

    Michael Mordey (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,087
    Tom Livingstone (Liberal Democrat) 909
    Syed Ajmol Ali (Conservative Party) 281
    Helmut Izaks (Green Party) 104


    LDs won Hendon in 2021 so a swing back from LD to Lab.

    Edit: actually, I think that's the first gain - LDs took it from Labour in 2018.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,035

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    One of the problems with that, it is May’s Anus Horribilis before Boris Love, actually swept the nation. To be fair, Although Conservatives in power since 2010, Boris platform ran against the Cameron & May administrations to a degree as a fresh start. What we most wish to learn from these real votes is extent Boris love from last three years is becoming electorally unpopular?
    2018 was a 35/35/16 split.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was 2019 which was the protest election and even then the Conservatives were level with Labour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    The Scottish and Welsh elections last took place in 2017 - which was the big Conservative win during the 2017 GE campaign.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,737
    ping said:

    CatMan said:

    OMG, Wordle is just taking the piss with its words now

    Wordle 320 5/6

    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Lol

    I assumed it was past midnight. Took me 4 guesses before I realised… those letters look familiar….
    Since it's about to change, I assume I can get away with spoilers. It's a Baseball term I think
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513

    EPG said:

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    "FPTP, unfair but fast". Like the builder in Fawlty Towers who was "not good but cheap".
    Personally I’m sold on the German system, or more specifically the (I think) Hessian variant that was recommended by some august body or another.
    Is that the one where you get a hangover bonus?
    No, it’s the one where you don’t have a closed party list, but proportionality is preserves by allowing best runners up into Parliament.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084

    More Sunderland from VoteUK:

    Hetton

    Claire Marilyn Rowntree (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,230
    David William Geddis (Independent) 991
    Adelle Burnicle (Conservative Party) 339
    John Anthony Lennox (Liberal Democrat) 168

    Hendon

    Michael Mordey (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,087
    Tom Livingstone (Liberal Democrat) 909
    Syed Ajmol Ali (Conservative Party) 281
    Helmut Izaks (Green Party) 104


    LDs won Hendon in 2021 so a swing back from LD to Lab.

    Beergate be damned!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    Sunderland

    Barnes

    Antony Mullen (Conservative Party) 1,637
    Abul Bakkar Ehthesham Haque (Labour Party) 1,329
    Tim Ellis (Liberal Democrat) 264
    Rachel Featherstone (Green Party) 212

    Doxford - Lib Dem GAIN

    Allen Curtis (Liberal Democrat) 1,511
    Steven Hansom (Labour and Co-operative Party) 851
    Tom Cuthbertson (Conservative Party) 565
    Richard Peter Bradley (Green Party) 115
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,305
    Reports that the two Russian tank brigades in the salient to the South of Izium are being withdrawn for regrouping after being heavily mauled. Not sure if this means the salient shrinks or is simply backfilled with additional cannon fodder.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449
    dixiedean said:

    Am turning off and turning in. There are actual results, but no MSM (AFAICS) is actually reporting them. Merely playing pre-prepared speculation. I know there has only been one Sunderland ward called. But it is 100% more useful evidence than what a journalist in London thinks about Sunderland. Or a vox pop.

    Once the people have turned up to vote and the turnout is in, it's a good time to turn off and turn in. Don't turn down the chance to turn up tomorrow and see if the voters have turned on Boris and overturned some Conservative councils.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321
    edited May 5
    LD gain in Doxford / Sunderland.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Sunderland

    Barnes

    Antony Mullen (Conservative Party) 1,637
    Abul Bakkar Ehthesham Haque (Labour Party) 1,329
    Tim Ellis (Liberal Democrat) 264
    Rachel Featherstone (Green Party) 212

    Doxford - Lib Dem GAIN

    Allen Curtis (Liberal Democrat) 1,511
    Steven Hansom (Labour and Co-operative Party) 851
    Tom Cuthbertson (Conservative Party) 565
    Richard Peter Bradley (Green Party) 115

    Big Dog vote still holding up in Labour heartlands?

    Lib Dems also now hurting Labour in red wall heartlands?

    I need to pee - stop all the counts!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,737
    CatMan said:

    ping said:

    CatMan said:

    OMG, Wordle is just taking the piss with its words now

    Wordle 320 5/6

    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Lol

    I assumed it was past midnight. Took me 4 guesses before I realised… those letters look familiar….
    Since it's about to change, I assume I can get away with spoilers. It's a Baseball term I think
    Also slang for a homing pigeon. And a biased ref. See Mersey Derby.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084

    NeilVW said:

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    rubbish, they should have a result by the end of the days counting.
    I think that was slightly tongue in cheek.
    It couldn’t be a more painful system STV. Essentially, aside from your own support, who does everyone else hate and fear least? It’s merits I suppose every vote is sacred, every vote is good, not a vote is wasted in that neighbourhood? So in extremely tribal or sectarian places, maybe it’s not such a bad system?
    Don't speak too ill of your opponents, as YOU could win or lose in the end depending on their transfers.

    BTW, consider the Aug 2022 Alaska primary for US Senate, which will narrow field down to Top-4 for the November general election. AND possible impact of impending reversal of Roe v Wade on electoral fortunes of incumbent US Senator Lisa Murkowski, who is pro-choice but voted to confirm SCOTUS justices who are upending the apple cart.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,035
    TimT said:

    Reports that the two Russian tank brigades in the salient to the South of Izium are being withdrawn for regrouping after being heavily mauled. Not sure if this means the salient shrinks or is simply backfilled with additional cannon fodder.

    The cannon fodder well is running dry:

    An aggressive draft campaign by the Russian-backed separatists who control parts of eastern Ukraine has emptied the area’s streets of military-age men, with many in hiding to avoid being sent to the frontline.

    In a sign of how desperate pro-Russia authorities are to bolster the ranks of fighters, in late March they announced that the upper age limit of the draft had been raised from 55 to 65 in Donetsk, local media reported. And on Saturday authorities announced a mobilisation in the region of Kherson, which was largely captured by Russia after the war began.

    Men who do not want to become cannon fodder in a war they do not support, against a country – Ukraine – that most of them still consider their own, are spending their days in hiding. Locals joke that they now live in a town of Amazons, run by women.

    Husbands, sons and brothers live in basements or locked indoors. They cannot stay in their own homes because registration is by address. Instead they stay at the homes of friends or relatives where no military-age men are listed as residents.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/donetsk-separatists-desperate-draft-campaign-empties-streets-of-men-ukraine
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    TimT said:

    Reports that the two Russian tank brigades in the salient to the South of Izium are being withdrawn for regrouping after being heavily mauled. Not sure if this means the salient shrinks or is simply backfilled with additional cannon fodder.

    Which borough is Izium in?
    Hull?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452

    More Sunderland from VoteUK:

    Hetton

    Claire Marilyn Rowntree (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,230
    David William Geddis (Independent) 991
    Adelle Burnicle (Conservative Party) 339
    John Anthony Lennox (Liberal Democrat) 168

    Hendon

    Michael Mordey (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,087
    Tom Livingstone (Liberal Democrat) 909
    Syed Ajmol Ali (Conservative Party) 281
    Helmut Izaks (Green Party) 104


    LDs won Hendon in 2021 so a swing back from LD to Lab.

    Beergate be damned!
    The funny thing would be if @Big_G_NorthWales with all his pearl clutching drove the meme of Starmer liking a beer and curry with his workers as a man of the people.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    First Sunderland result

    Silksworth

    Phil Tye (Labour Party) 1,618
    Jack Paul Simm (Conservative Party) 923
    Christopher Crozier (Green Party) 337

    In 2021 Labour held with less than 100 majority.

    Huge swing back to Labour there in the Red Wall.

    Interesting.
    Shouldnt we be comparing votes from the 2018 election when it was last contested?
    Now 56% 32%, then 52% 32%
    One of the problems with that, it is May’s Anus Horribilis before Boris Love, actually swept the nation. To be fair, Although Conservatives in power since 2010, Boris platform ran against the Cameron & May administrations to a degree as a fresh start. What we most wish to learn from these real votes is extent Boris love from last three years is becoming electorally unpopular?
    2018 was a 35/35/16 split.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was 2019 which was the protest election and even then the Conservatives were level with Labour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    The Scottish and Welsh elections last took place in 2017 - which was the big Conservative win during the 2017 GE campaign.
    2019 the conservatives lost 1300 seats?

    Let’s just say, the last 7 years have been extraordinary times? 🙂

    But what matters most here, what we can learn about 2024, and from early red wall results, Big Dog votes seem to be holding up well where he needs them?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,377

    Sunderland

    Barnes

    Antony Mullen (Conservative Party) 1,637
    Abul Bakkar Ehthesham Haque (Labour Party) 1,329
    Tim Ellis (Liberal Democrat) 264
    Rachel Featherstone (Green Party) 212

    Doxford - Lib Dem GAIN

    Allen Curtis (Liberal Democrat) 1,511
    Steven Hansom (Labour and Co-operative Party) 851
    Tom Cuthbertson (Conservative Party) 565
    Richard Peter Bradley (Green Party) 115

    Big Dog vote still holding up in Labour heartlands?

    Lib Dems also now hurting Labour in red wall heartlands?

    I need to pee - stop all the counts!
    Doxford had a larger LD majority (20%) last year, but this is a gain vs 2018. And I was wrong about Hendon - a LD-Lab swing since last year, but was Lab in 2018.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,084

    EPG said:

    Presumably no Irish exit poll?

    They use a complicated system so it takes 4 days for an exit poll, and 6 months for full result.
    It’s a reason why STV is not fit for purpose, despite being the preferred option for proportional fetishists.
    "FPTP, unfair but fast". Like the builder in Fawlty Towers who was "not good but cheap".
    Personally I’m sold on the German system, or more specifically the (I think) Hessian variant that was recommended by some august body or another.
    Is that the one where you get a hangover bonus?
    That would be VERY popular with politicos in Ireland - North AND South.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 802
    CatMan said:

    OMG, Wordle is just taking the piss with its words now

    Wordle 320 5/6

    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Very common word for americans. The national pastime etc. Just about acceptable as a British word, in its second meaning, but very obscure. New puzzle in 4 mins…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,321
    Yesterday's Wordle was a word I'd never heard of before. I managed to get it on the last attempt.
This discussion has been closed.