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Short Odds, Strong Nerves – Local Election Betting 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • CatMan said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    "Abortions For Some, Miniature American Flags For Others" would be a good compromise

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIgSTjzrmRg
    Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Federal Reserve raises rates from 0.5% to 1% - double the expected rise.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    News Update from Snookie

    Snookie is my life long friend who now lives in Bristol and is a Green (though her parents are ardent and cocky conservative Brexiteers and I bottled mentioning politics when I spoke to them three weeks ago).

    The news update is there’s no council elections in Bristol.

    But there is a plebbycite on abolishing the mayor. And, in a gentle plot twist from Snookie assuring me last year Greens will win the next mayor, the council and 3 of 4 parliament seats, Greens are now in a “modernisation” move going to abolish the mayor, and 9/10 voters support them.

    This is what she sent me. I love the subtle green twist on what the questions on the ballot actually are.

    The 2 choices on how the council is run, are:
    1. Keep the current Mayoral system, where the Mayor has the power to make nearly all decisions, and where your elected councillors have hardly any power.
    2. Change to a Modern Committee system, where all councillors actually have the power to do the job voters are electing them to do. Councillors will work in small committees to make decisions, and communities can have a bigger voice. All councillors from all parties will have the power to make and influence decisions.

    http://bristolgreenparty.org.uk/referendum/

    I think the Bristol Greens may just see self interest in taking power more quickly through a “council leader via coalition” than winning a mayor election. But am I wrong?

    Does it help democracy to get rid of them, or hinder it? Or is it more than that, mayors put places on maps and easier to talk with other places than a committee system?

    If you got/had a vote to abolish your places mayor tomorrow how would you vote?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    The latter happens in China.
    That's not the only time and place it's happened, and it's frightening and wrong.
    Nobody should have control over a woman's reproductive decisions other than the woman herself.
    A woman is not allowed to abort her perfectly viable 33 week old fetus “just cause she’s in a bad mood” - not anywhere in the world, as far as I know - so you are factually and morally wrong

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    I've set up a spreadsheet with all the local election nominations. I'll post it if anyone's interested. It took about 3 weeks to do.

    If anyone’s interested? :D:D:D

    Given that I still owe you several beers for winning me a bag of sand in 2016, count me in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    I think the middle ground is a little varied, since it is not generally about being purely on demand in all circumstances.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    I am not entirely sure it is this simple. I think there is a genuine battle in the middle ground over the timing of abortions. I made my own position clear the other night - abortions should not generally occur after there is a possibility of the foetus surviving and developing into a healthy baby outside of the womb with modern medical facilities (unless there is a risk to the mother or the baby is known to be suffering from an abnormality).

    Prior to that point we should have abortion on demand. After that point it should be only in special circumstances.

    There are extremes on both sides - the no abortion at any time vs the right to an abortion even at a late stage. But both of these are equally invalid positions. There are no 'strong arguments' in my view for either of those positions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    I may have missed it, but does anybody have an exact number of how many council seats are up for grabs tomorrow? Without that figure, it's hard to take a view on performance. E.g. the Tories losing 500 councillors - good or bad? Obviously depends on how many contests there are - 2,000 or 10,000?

    I have all that data available:

    total wards/divisions 3,954
    total seats 6,860
    total candidates 21,030
    3 undernominated seats (in Scotland).
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Andy_JS said:

    I may have missed it, but does anybody have an exact number of how many council seats are up for grabs tomorrow? Without that figure, it's hard to take a view on performance. E.g. the Tories losing 500 councillors - good or bad? Obviously depends on how many contests there are - 2,000 or 10,000?

    I have all that data available:

    total wards/divisions 3,954
    total seats 6,860
    total candidates 21,030
    3 undernominated seats (in Scotland).
    It is quite surprising that there are, on average, only 3 candidates for each seat.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Aslan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    That's about as likely as Tory backbenchers finding the spine to depose Johnson before the local elections.
    Yeah I agree, getting a bit speculative all this.

    But I did like the post where Biden has to think outside the box, and go in hard where they don’t like it up em. Your posts just pour cold water over every suggestion!
    I think term limits would be an excellent and non partisan means of reforming the court. Sadly I don't see any real chance of their being introduced.

    I'd be fine with (though less keen on) court expansion, and while it would be easier to achieve, the Democrats simply don't have the votes, and a failed attempt would probably be worse than none at all.
    Another thing talked about, in excitement of Biden’s election, was adding two new states strongly favouring democrats with their EVs. How long would that take to pull off?
    This bit of fairly desperate (but not entirely unconvincing) speculation is probably the best hope.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/05/after-abortion-decision-leak-what-can-the-chief-justice-do-now.html
    Actually that’s a very good piece, thanks for posting. Turning it from a binary issue, of conflicting placards being whacked over peoples heads, into a compromise, and saying it’s not that far fetched achieving compromise by peeling off justices from each camp.
    Sounds like an EU compromise where the threat of a massive loss for one side is a "compromise" when it just becomes a large loss.

    The real problem at the heart of things is that the Republicans have abused procedures to dominate the court. The Democrats should respond in kind, use this outrage to get a bigger Senate majority and expand the court. If they don't it won't just be abortion that is banned, it will be the morning after pill and gay marriage. The Republicans want to turn the US back into a 1950s society that straight, Christian with traditional gender roles. We shouldn't let them.
    We are just exploring all the outside the box options here today. Compromise actually has a history in abortion law everywhere?

    May I ask Robert Smithson where you get your 70/30 polling split from, is it across several reliable pollsters?

    I mean, if the country is 70/30 one way, and a committee is 70/30 the other way, is that even democracy anymore? Especially if the committee has been loaded by people like Stalin, Robespierre and Trump you understand what I am saying?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415
    edited May 2022
    kle4 said:

    Apologies if this came up earlier, but I had completely missed that conviced election fraud Lutfur Rahman was running again in Tower Hamlets, as his ban for holding elected office has expired. Livingstone is backing him.

    Personally I think if found guilty of such egregious election offences a lifetime ban is the only appropriate punishment. Being a former criminal, sure, stand and win, but a former election criminal? No.

    He seems to be saying he did nothing wrong and was innocent, but also he has learned from his mistakes.

    Hopefully everyone will vote Labour in Tower Hamlets and keep him out.

    Rahman into 6/5 with william hill to win Labour 4/6

    I think Rahman is a good bet - The ethnic make-up is growing more muslim by the day (young muslims reaching 18 etc) . Labour candidate not a muslim. Galloway succeeded here (so no scruples about extreme personalities winning if from a muslim side)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Andy_JS said:

    I've set up a spreadsheet with all the local election nominations. I'll post it if anyone's interested. It took about 3 weeks to do.

    Very much so if that is okay?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    CatMan said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    "Abortions For Some, Miniature American Flags For Others" would be a good compromise

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIgSTjzrmRg
    Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.
    A guy I saw in New Orleans, a couple of days ago

    “Don’t blame me, I voted for Trump”. A nice twist


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    The actual case before SCotUS is IIRC to restrict abortion to within 15 weeks in Mississippi.

    Which is longer than what the law in, for example, France and Germany allows.

    The oddity is that the passing of the Texas six week law effectively puts much greater restrictions on abortion than the Mississippi law that has caused the uproar.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
    Would make a good name for someone in House of Lords.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Andy_JS said:

    I may have missed it, but does anybody have an exact number of how many council seats are up for grabs tomorrow? Without that figure, it's hard to take a view on performance. E.g. the Tories losing 500 councillors - good or bad? Obviously depends on how many contests there are - 2,000 or 10,000?

    I have all that data available:

    total wards/divisions 3,954
    total seats 6,860
    total candidates 21,030
    3 undernominated seats (in Scotland).
    It is quite surprising that there are, on average, only 3 candidates for each seat.
    In Scotland it's only just over 2 candidates per seat available. It must be something to do with their electoral system.

    Scotland totals

    total wards 355
    total seats 1,226
    total candidates 2,546
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Federal Reserve raises rates from 0.5% to 1% - double the expected rise.

    Is this where poster normally reply “boom!”
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    edited May 2022
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Thanks. Very reasonable and all that, but misconceived. My point is simply this: There is a strong argument in general in favour of women's autonomy and a strong argument in general in favour of the unborn having rights which are protected by their parents and society because they cannot speak for themselves.

    Where abortion law should lie within the spectrum that creates is a political issue. IMHO both an absolute ban and 'abortion on demand' are positions which fail to respect the nature of the problem.

    We are in fact agreed. 'Striking the balance' - your phrase for the correct process - is the critical political issue.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094

    kle4 said:

    Britain would come to the aid of Finland and Sweden if they were attacked, whether the countries were members of the military alliance NATO or not, said the British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace on a visit to Niinisalo in Finland

    https://twitter.com/STTuutiset/status/1521844788701667329

    As has been noted, a bit of a kick in the teeth to Ukraine. But surprisingly honest, especially whilst trying to convince those two to join.
    Why a kick in the teeth? - U.K. Sweden and Finland are part of an explicit military alliance, already. NATO isn’t the only alliance out there…
    Probably quite a safe thing for him to say, since Finland can resist Russia quite well on its own, and Germany said pretty much the same within the last 24 hours.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    I am not entirely sure it is this simple. I think there is a genuine battle in the middle ground over the timing of abortions. I made my own position clear the other night - abortions should not generally occur after there is a possibility of the foetus surviving and developing into a healthy baby outside of the womb with modern medical facilities (unless there is a risk to the mother or the baby is known to be suffering from an abnormality).

    Prior to that point we should have abortion on demand. After that point it should be only in special circumstances.

    There are extremes on both sides - the no abortion at any time vs the right to an abortion even at a late stage. But both of these are equally invalid positions. There are no 'strong arguments' in my view for either of those positions.
    Roughly I'd go for:

    First 13 weeks - legal
    Third 13 weeks - illegal (except for extreme circumstances)

    With the second 13 weeks the variable on which the dial can be moved from 14-26 depending on what people vote for.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Sandpit said:

    Federal Reserve raises rates from 0.5% to 1% - double the expected rise.

    No it was in line with expectations.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Federal Reserve raises rates from 0.5% to 1% - double the expected rise.

    Got to get that recession in before the mid terms
  • A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
    I thought it was Andy Burnham's nickname for himself?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    The actual case before SCotUS is IIRC to restrict abortion to within 15 weeks in Mississippi.

    Which is longer than what the law in, for example, France and Germany allows.

    The oddity is that the passing of the Texas six week law effectively puts much greater restrictions on abortion than the Mississippi law that has caused the uproar.
    Mississippi changed the scope of their lawsuit when RGB died and ACB was installed. It went from the 15 weeks issue to full Roe repeal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Sandpit said:

    Federal Reserve raises rates from 0.5% to 1% - double the expected rise.

    No it was in line with expectations.
    Big pressure now on BoE.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Andy_JS said:

    I've set up a spreadsheet with all the local election nominations. I'll post it if anyone's interested. It took about 3 weeks to do.

    Very much so if that is okay?
    Definitely post. Impressive amount of work by sounds of things.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    One gets the impression most Conservatives stopped putting up posters and signs a long time ago, possibly in the mid-1990s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited May 2022
    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Explains this from the BBC.

    Ukrainian officials say Russia has launched a major assault on the besieged Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol

    That 9 May speculation clearly not nonsense.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Thanks. Very reasonable and all that, but misconceived. My point is simply this: There is a strong argument in general in favour of women's autonomy and a strong argument in general in favour of the unborn having rights which are protected by their parents and society because they cannot speak for themselves.

    Where abortion law should lie within the spectrum that creates is a political issue. IMHO both an absolute ban and 'abortion on demand' are positions which fail to respect the nature of the problem.

    We are in fact agreed. 'Striking the balance' - your phrase for the correct process - is the critical political issue.
    Indeed. And look at this. Virginia Democrat lawmakers pushing for, essentially, abortion-on-demand up to the FORTIETH WEEK. Even if the woman is DILATING

    https://twitter.com/delanosquires/status/1521650291547979776?s=21&t=ANdQmVCO00-Wd492na8mZg

    This is the other side of the argument that we do not see. And I challenge any PB-er to watch that and not feel deeply uncomfortable. The polarization in America happens on both extremes.

    Abortion at 40 weeks and dilation means you have to murder a completely viable baby - a baby, for all intents and purposes, about to be born that moment - on the grounds that “the mother’s mental health might be impaired”. WTF

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Andy_JS said:

    I've set up a spreadsheet with all the local election nominations. I'll post it if anyone's interested. It took about 3 weeks to do.

    Very much so if that is okay?
    Yes. I'm just doing some final checks on it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
    :)

    There's a good joke about someone trying to drive from Cambridge to the northwest, then realising where he was going, saying: "God, Manchester!", then turning around and going home.

    It's quite an interesting place, and beautiful by the river. It was a Roman town tangentially involved in Boudicca's revolt, and after the war a bunch of German atomic scientists were kept in a manor house in the town, including Niels Bohr and Heisenberg.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    Andy_JS said:

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    One gets the impression most Conservatives stopped putting up posters and signs a long time ago, possibly in the mid-1990s.
    Not in West Wales they didn't, lots of farmers fields, though since brexit not as many crops.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    If got some ideas where the results this week might take politics in the coming months.

    Firstly, maybe a misconception. At the 2019 polls, the equivalent to these, the Tories lost over 1300 councillors. But Labour finished in negative net territory too, losing six councils. Big John Knowles please explain.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was the libdems went up 700. Maybe it’s libdems coming in on high mark, Labour need six council just to be square from Corbyn’s losses?

    Secondly. If it’s the libdems and greens who have good night, because they can win in both Tory and Labour areas, the impact is likely to be a poll bounce in General Election polling? And the impact of that is reduced Labour leads over the Conservatives because the ld and green bounce more likely to come at expense of Labour GE polling? Adding the three parties up it will still be around 55 like normal (some recent polls have that creeping up) only Labour will start polling less of the 55 showing smaller leads over Tories from every poster, even Opinoum and Kantor who currently only have the gap about 2?

    This could mean a few months of lots of BigJohnKnowes asking “please explain” and Sunil replying “no Tory lead since 2,000,000 BC” 😆
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    IshmaelZ said:

    Britain would come to the aid of Finland and Sweden if they were attacked, whether the countries were members of the military alliance NATO or not, said the British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace on a visit to Niinisalo in Finland

    https://twitter.com/STTuutiset/status/1521844788701667329

    So what have they got that Ukraine hasn't?
    And idiot looking for some positive headlines visiting them?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Alistair said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    The actual case before SCotUS is IIRC to restrict abortion to within 15 weeks in Mississippi.

    Which is longer than what the law in, for example, France and Germany allows.

    The oddity is that the passing of the Texas six week law effectively puts much greater restrictions on abortion than the Mississippi law that has caused the uproar.
    Mississippi changed the scope of their lawsuit when RGB died and ACB was installed. It went from the 15 weeks issue to full Roe repeal.
    My point was merely that a 15 week limit is well within the 'normal' abortion laws.

    And that the Texas six week law has effectively driven a wild west stagecoach right through abortion rights already.

    That SCotUS approved the Texas law by 8-1 was the surprise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Lots of buildup.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Only had to bomb it almost totally into rubble to capture it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    I don't think any Republican Senators would go along with court-packing, but, yes, there are a few Republican Senators who are pro-choice: Susan Collins (Maine, who hangs on even though the state usually votes Dem), Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska, practically in constant revolt with her party, with frequent rumours she'll cross the floor). So, 3/8 female Republican Senators are pro-choice versus 0/42 men.
    Is that all? Just three? 😔
    What would be interesting is *any* Republicans crossed the floor - a lot of Biden's legislation is held hostage to the "moderate" Dems in the Senate

    Joe "Rollin' Coal" Manchin in particular....
    I don't expect much more than performative outrage from them - like Collin's claims yesterday that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch misled her during their confirmation.

    Like Manchin, Collins and Murkowski have enjoyed very successful careers badmouthing their party's policies to the right audience. Though unlike Manchin, they don't very often vote against it, especially when it might mean burning bridges..
    It should have been obvious to anyone with two braincells to rub together that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch were lying toerags who would tear up Roe vs Wade the minute they had a chance. I'm kind of sick of these "moderate Republicans" who pretend to be nice reasonable people then vote with the Gilead crowd that runs their party 90% of the time.
    On stuffing the court I am conflicted. The Republicans have acted in such bad faith that I half think that anything goes now. On the other hand if both sides trash the normal political conventions then the US will inevitably slide into a really bad place. Maybe it is better to stick to the rules even if that places you at a disadvantage, do at least some semblance of civilised democracy is maintained.
    Are you still whining about the Garland delay? Using the power of agenda setting is politics101. There’s no bad faith at all - is aggressive sportsmanship
    The biggest error was RBG not resigning under Obama or even Clinton. Having an 88-year-old serving the court was always going to be a liability.

    That said, the actuarial risk for the next few years is with the conservatives.

    If we get a Republican President and Senate in 2024, expect Roberts, Thomas and Alito to all stand down.
    I don't think they'll stand down, because - like with RBG - they enjoy being on the Court.

    Personal view: the best justices are those appointed when the President and the Senate are controlled by different parties.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    dixiedean said:

    Well my walk to the beach was cut short by an apocalyptic storm. Massive hailstones. Drenched.

    Feeling pedantic.

    Aren't hailstones ice, therefore dry?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    Applicant said:

    kle4 said:

    Good article by Curtice and Fisher on their Project National Share for local elections and how that may differ from the National Equivalent Vote by Rallings and Thrasher

    https://electionsetc.com/2022/05/04/understanding-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2022/

    That sentence is like chum in a piranha pool to election nerds, and means absolutely nothing to normal people.
    Who let the normal people into PB?
    Don't worry, they won't be around for long.
    But it’s good though because it is the mistake I made last week, misunderstanding projected national from raw vote, maybe there is still a bit of Normal left in me. 😇

    I still remain sceptical exactly how you do a big opinion poll of just Labour areas and few Tory areas, and can extrapolatte that into a reasonable accurate claim as if every area had voted. To start with, those who gave Boris landslide win could soften but still support Boris whilst those voting against Boris in 19 could harden from soft to hard and hard to harder, which is actually a big change in peoples views, but virtually unmeasurable in terms of voting and polling isn’t it?
    I think the answer is that it is not an opinion poll.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
    Would make a good name for someone in House of Lords.
    A few years back there was an interview on the radio with a lady who had been appointed to the House of Lords. She was advised to take a name from a place she knew and liked, but said that 'Lady ??? of Six Mile Bottom' probably wasn't a good choice....

    Annoyingly, I cannot remember what her name was. It wasn't the old Lady Delamere.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022
    What It’s Like Inside Shanghai’s Lockdown
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpJPPJwi2Vo

    Makes Wuhan look like a walk in the park.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Lots of buildup.
    I’m not so sure there was. There were indications Russia was increasingly autocratic and aggressive, from Grozny to Aleppo to Crimea, but nonetheless Russia and Russians seemed essentially sane. Greedy, imperialist, punchy, but sane

    In 2022 it appears to have gone quite mad, almost overnight, from the Nazi sloganizing to Putin’s crazy long tables, As if Putin’s allegedly-terminal paranoia has infected the whole nation
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well my walk to the beach was cut short by an apocalyptic storm. Massive hailstones. Drenched.

    Feeling pedantic.

    Aren't hailstones ice, therefore dry?
    The 20 or so minutes of tropical downpour that followed it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
    Would make a good name for someone in House of Lords.
    A few years back there was an interview on the radio with a lady who had been appointed to the House of Lords. She was advised to take a name from a place she knew and liked, but said that 'Lady ??? of Six Mile Bottom' probably wasn't a good choice....

    Annoyingly, I cannot remember what her name was. It wasn't the old Lady Delamere.
    Lady Bottom 🤭
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Andy_JS said:

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    One gets the impression most Conservatives stopped putting up posters and signs a long time ago, possibly in the mid-1990s.
    There are no Labour posters in Newham but if you think it's going to be anything other than Labour 66, Others 0, good luck with that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    I don't think any Republican Senators would go along with court-packing, but, yes, there are a few Republican Senators who are pro-choice: Susan Collins (Maine, who hangs on even though the state usually votes Dem), Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska, practically in constant revolt with her party, with frequent rumours she'll cross the floor). So, 3/8 female Republican Senators are pro-choice versus 0/42 men.
    Is that all? Just three? 😔
    What would be interesting is *any* Republicans crossed the floor - a lot of Biden's legislation is held hostage to the "moderate" Dems in the Senate

    Joe "Rollin' Coal" Manchin in particular....
    I don't expect much more than performative outrage from them - like Collin's claims yesterday that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch misled her during their confirmation.

    Like Manchin, Collins and Murkowski have enjoyed very successful careers badmouthing their party's policies to the right audience. Though unlike Manchin, they don't very often vote against it, especially when it might mean burning bridges..
    It should have been obvious to anyone with two braincells to rub together that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch were lying toerags who would tear up Roe vs Wade the minute they had a chance. I'm kind of sick of these "moderate Republicans" who pretend to be nice reasonable people then vote with the Gilead crowd that runs their party 90% of the time.
    On stuffing the court I am conflicted. The Republicans have acted in such bad faith that I half think that anything goes now. On the other hand if both sides trash the normal political conventions then the US will inevitably slide into a really bad place. Maybe it is better to stick to the rules even if that places you at a disadvantage, do at least some semblance of civilised democracy is maintained.
    Are you still whining about the Garland delay? Using the power of agenda setting is politics101. There’s no bad faith at all - is aggressive sportsmanship
    The biggest error was RBG not resigning under Obama or even Clinton. Having an 88-year-old serving the court was always going to be a liability.

    That said, the actuarial risk for the next few years is with the conservatives.

    If we get a Republican President and Senate in 2024, expect Roberts, Thomas and Alito to all stand down.
    I don't think they'll stand down, because - like with RBG - they enjoy being on the Court.

    Personal view: the best justices are those appointed when the President and the Senate are controlled by different parties.
    Didn't the Dems control the Senate when Clarence Thomas was confirmed?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Russia seems to be a world leader in self-pity and self-entitlement.

    Based upon economic backwardness, brutal authoritarianism and mass corruption.

    I wonder if it has ever been any different.

    Did the orthodox church and society ever have a renaissance, reformation and enlightenment ?

    It seems to be a permanent feature that the dear father is in heaven (Karl Marx had that role under communism) and the little father (Tsars including Putin) is in the Kremlin, the boyars/oligarchs have all the money and the individual is a slave without rights.

    The underlying bitterness from this state of affairs is then inflicted on the outsider.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    I don't think any Republican Senators would go along with court-packing, but, yes, there are a few Republican Senators who are pro-choice: Susan Collins (Maine, who hangs on even though the state usually votes Dem), Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska, practically in constant revolt with her party, with frequent rumours she'll cross the floor). So, 3/8 female Republican Senators are pro-choice versus 0/42 men.
    Is that all? Just three? 😔
    What would be interesting is *any* Republicans crossed the floor - a lot of Biden's legislation is held hostage to the "moderate" Dems in the Senate

    Joe "Rollin' Coal" Manchin in particular....
    I don't expect much more than performative outrage from them - like Collin's claims yesterday that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch misled her during their confirmation.

    Like Manchin, Collins and Murkowski have enjoyed very successful careers badmouthing their party's policies to the right audience. Though unlike Manchin, they don't very often vote against it, especially when it might mean burning bridges..
    It should have been obvious to anyone with two braincells to rub together that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch were lying toerags who would tear up Roe vs Wade the minute they had a chance. I'm kind of sick of these "moderate Republicans" who pretend to be nice reasonable people then vote with the Gilead crowd that runs their party 90% of the time.
    On stuffing the court I am conflicted. The Republicans have acted in such bad faith that I half think that anything goes now. On the other hand if both sides trash the normal political conventions then the US will inevitably slide into a really bad place. Maybe it is better to stick to the rules even if that places you at a disadvantage, do at least some semblance of civilised democracy is maintained.
    Are you still whining about the Garland delay? Using the power of agenda setting is politics101. There’s no bad faith at all - is aggressive sportsmanship
    The biggest error was RBG not resigning under Obama or even Clinton. Having an 88-year-old serving the court was always going to be a liability.

    That said, the actuarial risk for the next few years is with the conservatives.

    If we get a Republican President and Senate in 2024, expect Roberts, Thomas and Alito to all stand down.
    I don't think they'll stand down, because - like with RBG - they enjoy being on the Court.

    Personal view: the best justices are those appointed when the President and the Senate are controlled by different parties.
    Isn't the last justice appointed in that situation Clarence Thomas?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Sandpit said:

    Federal Reserve raises rates from 0.5% to 1% - double the expected rise.

    No it was in line with expectations.
    Big pressure now on BoE.
    FWIW I think the BOE will hike less than the Fed because the UK economy will fall over earlier. Underlying inflationary pressure in the UK is lower and looks like it may be decelerating already.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    If got some ideas where the results this week might take politics in the coming months.

    Firstly, maybe a misconception. At the 2019 polls, the equivalent to these, the Tories lost over 1300 councillors. But Labour finished in negative net territory too, losing six councils. Big John Knowles please explain.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was the libdems went up 700. Maybe it’s libdems coming in on high mark, Labour need six council just to be square from Corbyn’s losses?

    Secondly. If it’s the libdems and greens who have good night, because they can win in both Tory and Labour areas, the impact is likely to be a poll bounce in General Election polling? And the impact of that is reduced Labour leads over the Conservatives because the ld and green bounce more likely to come at expense of Labour GE polling? Adding the three parties up it will still be around 55 like normal (some recent polls have that creeping up) only Labour will start polling less of the 55 showing smaller leads over Tories from every poster, even Opinoum and Kantor who currently only have the gap about 2?

    This could mean a few months of lots of BigJohnKnowes asking “please explain” and Sunil replying “no Tory lead since 2,000,000 BC” 😆

    What it means is breathing space for the Conservatives in 2023 - they start next year's election campaign from a very low base so any improvement (particularly at the expense of the LDs) will encourage Team Johnson the worst is past and they can go for a big tax cutting Budget and a 2024 election.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Russia seems to be a world leader in self-pity and self-entitlement.

    Based upon economic backwardness, brutal authoritarianism and mass corruption.

    I wonder if it has ever been any different.

    Did the orthodox church and society ever have a renaissance, reformation and enlightenment ?

    It seems to be a permanent feature that the dear father is in heaven (Karl Marx had that role under communism) and the little father (Tsars including Putin) is in the Kremlin, the boyars/oligarchs have all the money and the individual is a slave without rights.

    The underlying bitterness from this state of affairs is then inflicted on the outsider.
    Some of that sounds familiar here, too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Applicant said:

    kle4 said:

    Good article by Curtice and Fisher on their Project National Share for local elections and how that may differ from the National Equivalent Vote by Rallings and Thrasher

    https://electionsetc.com/2022/05/04/understanding-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2022/

    That sentence is like chum in a piranha pool to election nerds, and means absolutely nothing to normal people.
    Who let the normal people into PB?
    Don't worry, they won't be around for long.
    But it’s good though because it is the mistake I made last week, misunderstanding projected national from raw vote, maybe there is still a bit of Normal left in me. 😇

    I still remain sceptical exactly how you do a big opinion poll of just Labour areas and few Tory areas, and can extrapolatte that into a reasonable accurate claim as if every area had voted. To start with, those who gave Boris landslide win could soften but still support Boris whilst those voting against Boris in 19 could harden from soft to hard and hard to harder, which is actually a big change in peoples views, but virtually unmeasurable in terms of voting and polling isn’t it?
    I think the answer is that it is not an opinion poll.
    No it’s real votes from mainly labour territory extrapolated, and obviously wouldn’t be the same levels in Tory areas but how on earth do you extrapolate remotely accurately, my point being votes that aren’t votes could have soften a lot, but still be a vote non vote if soften or hardened (likely softened). Does that make it clearer for you?

    I can ask the question very clear like that, but don’t have an answer I’m afraid.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    edited May 2022
    ...

    algarkirk said:


    Call them what you like, Motorway service stations are the most horrible places in Britain, so vile that you find yourself longing for another four hours driving on the motorway until you have to stop at another one.
    (Cairn Lodge and Fleet are the honourable exceptions that I have encountered).

    Just building my rep as PB's eccentric - I like motorway service stations, especially Moto. But then I like fast food, and nowadays they have comfortable sofas to sit while you eat, and you can read a book and nobody bothers you no matter how long you stay. I'm just back from a West Country holiday, and driving leisurely back and stopping for a bite and a chapter every now and then made it a very easy run. What seems to be the problem?
    Agree. I love them. They are free, predictable, all human life is there, no pressure to spend money, are open all hours, each has its own ambience. The Economist Christmas edition ran a great article on them of a few years ago, about how they were the ever open still centre of a moving world, and became a world of their own if you inhabited one for long.

    And I love the way they are sometimes fantastically busy, and sometimes empty as the grave.

    South Mimms is almost a town and road system in its own right.

    Some of the treats are off the Motorway system as such. Great Gonerby (if you can find it). Blyth (Notts not Northumberland).

    But nothing compares with Tebay. The Ritz and Dorchester of service stations. Service stations in heaven are all like that.

    Is it a service station?

    https://www.tebayservices.com/
    It is. Gloucester services are pretty good as well though. Strangely enough, operated by the same company.

    https://www.westmorlandfamily.com

    The worst services have to be Hartshead Moor - what a dump.
    Late to this party, missed the beer and the curry by the look of it. But as someone who travels our nation each day I am happy to give my tuppence worth. Collumpton and Bridgewater on the M5 are notable 0/10s.

    Here in Wales, Pont Abraham is a notable mention best avoided, although with the exception of Reading, Leigh Delamere and Sarn everywhere else on the M4 is pretty desperate.

    Come to think of it UK Motorway services are with the exception of the Tebay/Gloucester services generally an utter disgrace.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Lots of buildup.
    I’m not so sure there was. There were indications Russia was increasingly autocratic and aggressive, from Grozny to Aleppo to Crimea, but nonetheless Russia and Russians seemed essentially sane. Greedy, imperialist, punchy, but sane

    In 2022 it appears to have gone quite mad, almost overnight, from the Nazi sloganizing to Putin’s crazy long tables, As if Putin’s allegedly-terminal paranoia has infected the whole nation
    Tipping point then. You go fascist, you go full fascist.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Lots of buildup.
    I’m not so sure there was. There were indications Russia was increasingly autocratic and aggressive, from Grozny to Aleppo to Crimea, but nonetheless Russia and Russians seemed essentially sane. Greedy, imperialist, punchy, but sane

    In 2022 it appears to have gone quite mad, almost overnight, from the Nazi sloganizing to Putin’s crazy long tables, As if Putin’s allegedly-terminal paranoia has infected the whole nation
    Apart from the genocide and seizing of other countries territory, the jailing of political opponents and the mad ranting about the decadent homosexual west there was literally no sign that Russia and Putin might be a bad 'un.
    What genocide? Russia has done a lot of bad shit, but I don’t remember anything actually genocidal - until now, when they literally want to erase “Ukraine-ness” forever

    Your other points are reasonable if arguable. Perhaps we all just looked away, as it was so much easier. Not any more
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    No, no, no:

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions up until the end of the second trimester
    Extreme: abortions up until the end of the twelfth trimester
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    I don't think any Republican Senators would go along with court-packing, but, yes, there are a few Republican Senators who are pro-choice: Susan Collins (Maine, who hangs on even though the state usually votes Dem), Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska, practically in constant revolt with her party, with frequent rumours she'll cross the floor). So, 3/8 female Republican Senators are pro-choice versus 0/42 men.
    Is that all? Just three? 😔
    What would be interesting is *any* Republicans crossed the floor - a lot of Biden's legislation is held hostage to the "moderate" Dems in the Senate

    Joe "Rollin' Coal" Manchin in particular....
    I don't expect much more than performative outrage from them - like Collin's claims yesterday that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch misled her during their confirmation.

    Like Manchin, Collins and Murkowski have enjoyed very successful careers badmouthing their party's policies to the right audience. Though unlike Manchin, they don't very often vote against it, especially when it might mean burning bridges..
    It should have been obvious to anyone with two braincells to rub together that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch were lying toerags who would tear up Roe vs Wade the minute they had a chance. I'm kind of sick of these "moderate Republicans" who pretend to be nice reasonable people then vote with the Gilead crowd that runs their party 90% of the time.
    On stuffing the court I am conflicted. The Republicans have acted in such bad faith that I half think that anything goes now. On the other hand if both sides trash the normal political conventions then the US will inevitably slide into a really bad place. Maybe it is better to stick to the rules even if that places you at a disadvantage, do at least some semblance of civilised democracy is maintained.
    Are you still whining about the Garland delay? Using the power of agenda setting is politics101. There’s no bad faith at all - is aggressive sportsmanship
    The biggest error was RBG not resigning under Obama or even Clinton. Having an 88-year-old serving the court was always going to be a liability.

    That said, the actuarial risk for the next few years is with the conservatives.

    If we get a Republican President and Senate in 2024, expect Roberts, Thomas and Alito to all stand down.
    I don't think they'll stand down, because - like with RBG - they enjoy being on the Court.

    Personal view: the best justices are those appointed when the President and the Senate are controlled by different parties.
    Those days are over. Any such appointment would have no majority in the President's own party to get it over the line.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    In pre-war Nazi Germany it was quite 'normal' to inform on others, even family, friends and neighbours. (My mother was held in police custody for carrying a simple Brownie camera near a barracks in 1937. She thought a relative snitched on her).
    The same is happening in Russia today.


    At Penza, eighth-grade students at a sports-focused school reported their 55-year-old English teacher at the end of March. The female teacher had expressed her anti-war opinion during the lesson.

    A couple of students had asked why they didn’t get to Europe for sports competitions in the summer. The teacher had said he saw the exclusion of Russia as the right decision, which the students had wondered about.

    “As long as Russia does not start behaving in a civilized way, this will continue forever,” the teacher had replied. “Well, you go to the LNR [Luhansk People’s Republic], there’s karate. You go to DNR [Donetsk People's Republic]. ”

    One of the students recorded the conversation, and the recording was handed over to the authorities. According to Kuznetsova, it is uncertain whether the teachers were reported to the police by the students or their parents. The teacher has been charged with spreading false news about the Russian army.


    https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008794124.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Russia seems to be a world leader in self-pity and self-entitlement.

    Based upon economic backwardness, brutal authoritarianism and mass corruption.

    I wonder if it has ever been any different.

    Did the orthodox church and society ever have a renaissance, reformation and enlightenment ?

    It seems to be a permanent feature that the dear father is in heaven (Karl Marx had that role under communism) and the little father (Tsars including Putin) is in the Kremlin, the boyars/oligarchs have all the money and the individual is a slave without rights.

    The underlying bitterness from this state of affairs is then inflicted on the outsider.
    Some of that sounds familiar here, too.
    It is a bit reminiscent of what Scottish nationalists think of Scottish unionists and Scottish unionists think of Scottish nationalists.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Lots of buildup.
    I’m not so sure there was. There were indications Russia was increasingly autocratic and aggressive, from Grozny to Aleppo to Crimea, but nonetheless Russia and Russians seemed essentially sane. Greedy, imperialist, punchy, but sane

    In 2022 it appears to have gone quite mad, almost overnight, from the Nazi sloganizing to Putin’s crazy long tables, As if Putin’s allegedly-terminal paranoia has infected the whole nation
    Apart from the genocide and seizing of other countries territory, the jailing of political opponents and the mad ranting about the decadent homosexual west there was literally no sign that Russia and Putin might be a bad 'un.
    What genocide? Russia has done a lot of bad shit, but I don’t remember anything actually genocidal - until now, when they literally want to erase “Ukraine-ness” forever

    Your other points are reasonable if arguable. Perhaps we all just looked away, as it was so much easier. Not any more
    You touched on it, Chechnya. It wasn't a little gentleman's skirmish Russia engaged into. They wiped out whole villages of civilians.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,722
    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    No, no, no:

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions up until the end of the second trimester
    Extreme: abortions up until the end of the twelfth trimester
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxHQJiqYqeM
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    No, no, no:

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions up until the end of the second trimester
    Extreme: abortions up until the end of the twelfth trimester
    You could do similar for terminations of oldies but with their kids now having the choice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Aslan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    That's about as likely as Tory backbenchers finding the spine to depose Johnson before the local elections.
    Yeah I agree, getting a bit speculative all this.

    But I did like the post where Biden has to think outside the box, and go in hard where they don’t like it up em. Your posts just pour cold water over every suggestion!
    I think term limits would be an excellent and non partisan means of reforming the court. Sadly I don't see any real chance of their being introduced.

    I'd be fine with (though less keen on) court expansion, and while it would be easier to achieve, the Democrats simply don't have the votes, and a failed attempt would probably be worse than none at all.
    Another thing talked about, in excitement of Biden’s election, was adding two new states strongly favouring democrats with their EVs. How long would that take to pull off?
    This bit of fairly desperate (but not entirely unconvincing) speculation is probably the best hope.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/05/after-abortion-decision-leak-what-can-the-chief-justice-do-now.html
    Actually that’s a very good piece, thanks for posting. Turning it from a binary issue, of conflicting placards being whacked over peoples heads, into a compromise, and saying it’s not that far fetched achieving compromise by peeling off justices from each camp.
    Sounds like an EU compromise where the threat of a massive loss for one side is a "compromise" when it just becomes a large loss.

    The real problem at the heart of things is that the Republicans have abused procedures to dominate the court. The Democrats should respond in kind, use this outrage to get a bigger Senate majority and expand the court. If they don't it won't just be abortion that is banned, it will be the morning after pill and gay marriage. The Republicans want to turn the US back into a 1950s society that straight, Christian with traditional gender roles. We shouldn't let them.
    We are just exploring all the outside the box options here today. Compromise actually has a history in abortion law everywhere?

    May I ask Robert Smithson where you get your 70/30 polling split from, is it across several reliable pollsters?

    I mean, if the country is 70/30 one way, and a committee is 70/30 the other way, is that even democracy anymore? Especially if the committee has been loaded by people like Stalin, Robespierre and Trump you understand what I am saying?
    Here you go:


  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745


    Late to this party, missed the beer and the curry by the look of it. But as someone who travels our nation each day I am happy to give my tuppence worth. Collumpton and Bridgewater on the M5 are notable 0/10s.

    Here in Wales, Pont Abraham is a notable mention best avoided, although with the exception of Reading, Leigh Delamere and Darn everywhere else on the M4 is pretty desperate.

    Come to think of it UK Motorway services are with the exception of the Tebay/Gloucester services are generally an utter disgrace.

    I used to drive a lot in the 80s and 90s and particularly to Cornwall from London. I knew every Little Chef on the A303 and the A30 and used to stop at Victoria (the one in Cornwall) for a late dinner at 8.30pm. Just me, the night and the music all the way from Exeter.

    If I had more time, I'd treat myself to an overnight at the Taunton Deane Road Chef or at Sowton or at Whidden Down. The Little Chef artery-clogging Olympic Breakfast was a British institution along with The Archers, losing at cricket and warm beer but the unhealthy capitalist obsession with profit and loss ended all that - there's more to life than profit and loss after all.

    I'm told the Little Chefs became Starbucks - I've tried their coffee, slightly brackish in taste but better than drinking mud.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Whether Brits like it or not, Americans choose to codify many, many rights in their written Constitution, from the prohibition of slavery to free speech to gun ownership. The logical outworking of "just settle it by majority rule" is ever-changing unfreedom based on transient outrage in one part of the country, which is exactly what the Constitution is meant to stop. Now, to a Brit, it is easy to settle the gun debate by passing laws based on what the majority wants today, but that's not how Americans think about rights and freedoms.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    One gets the impression most Conservatives stopped putting up posters and signs a long time ago, possibly in the mid-1990s.
    There are no Labour posters in Newham but if you think it's going to be anything other than Labour 66, Others 0, good luck with that.
    We're not far behind! Redbridge Council: Labour 51, Tories 11, Ref 1
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    stodge said:


    Late to this party, missed the beer and the curry by the look of it. But as someone who travels our nation each day I am happy to give my tuppence worth. Collumpton and Bridgewater on the M5 are notable 0/10s.

    Here in Wales, Pont Abraham is a notable mention best avoided, although with the exception of Reading, Leigh Delamere and Darn everywhere else on the M4 is pretty desperate.

    Come to think of it UK Motorway services are with the exception of the Tebay/Gloucester services are generally an utter disgrace.

    I used to drive a lot in the 80s and 90s and particularly to Cornwall from London. I knew every Little Chef on the A303 and the A30 and used to stop at Victoria (the one in Cornwall) for a late dinner at 8.30pm. Just me, the night and the music all the way from Exeter.

    If I had more time, I'd treat myself to an overnight at the Taunton Deane Road Chef or at Sowton or at Whidden Down. The Little Chef artery-clogging Olympic Breakfast was a British institution along with The Archers, losing at cricket and warm beer but the unhealthy capitalist obsession with profit and loss ended all that - there's more to life than profit and loss after all.

    I'm told the Little Chefs became Starbucks - I've tried their coffee, slightly brackish in taste but better than drinking mud.

    Love the Olympic breakfast! You just don't get fried bread these days!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    That's about as likely as Tory backbenchers finding the spine to depose Johnson before the local elections.
    Yeah I agree, getting a bit speculative all this.

    But I did like the post where Biden has to think outside the box, and go in hard where they don’t like it up em. Your posts just pour cold water over every suggestion!
    I think term limits would be an excellent and non partisan means of reforming the court. Sadly I don't see any real chance of their being introduced.

    I'd be fine with (though less keen on) court expansion, and while it would be easier to achieve, the Democrats simply don't have the votes, and a failed attempt would probably be worse than none at all.
    Another thing talked about, in excitement of Biden’s election, was adding two new states strongly favouring democrats with their EVs. How long would that take to pull off?
    This bit of fairly desperate (but not entirely unconvincing) speculation is probably the best hope.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/05/after-abortion-decision-leak-what-can-the-chief-justice-do-now.html
    Actually that’s a very good piece, thanks for posting. Turning it from a binary issue, of conflicting placards being whacked over peoples heads, into a compromise, and saying it’s not that far fetched achieving compromise by peeling off justices from each camp.
    Sounds like an EU compromise where the threat of a massive loss for one side is a "compromise" when it just becomes a large loss.

    The real problem at the heart of things is that the Republicans have abused procedures to dominate the court. The Democrats should respond in kind, use this outrage to get a bigger Senate majority and expand the court. If they don't it won't just be abortion that is banned, it will be the morning after pill and gay marriage. The Republicans want to turn the US back into a 1950s society that straight, Christian with traditional gender roles. We shouldn't let them.
    We are just exploring all the outside the box options here today. Compromise actually has a history in abortion law everywhere?

    May I ask Robert Smithson where you get your 70/30 polling split from, is it across several reliable pollsters?

    I mean, if the country is 70/30 one way, and a committee is 70/30 the other way, is that even democracy anymore? Especially if the committee has been loaded by people like Stalin, Robespierre and Trump you understand what I am saying?
    Here you go:


    An odd poll given that abortion in the USA is already regulated by law.

    A better opinion poll would be to ask what time limits abortion should be legal to.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
    Would make a good name for someone in House of Lords.
    A few years back there was an interview on the radio with a lady who had been appointed to the House of Lords. She was advised to take a name from a place she knew and liked, but said that 'Lady ??? of Six Mile Bottom' probably wasn't a good choice....

    Annoyingly, I cannot remember what her name was. It wasn't the old Lady Delamere.
    Baroness Trumpington?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    stodge said:

    If got some ideas where the results this week might take politics in the coming months.

    Firstly, maybe a misconception. At the 2019 polls, the equivalent to these, the Tories lost over 1300 councillors. But Labour finished in negative net territory too, losing six councils. Big John Knowles please explain.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It was the libdems went up 700. Maybe it’s libdems coming in on high mark, Labour need six council just to be square from Corbyn’s losses?

    Secondly. If it’s the libdems and greens who have good night, because they can win in both Tory and Labour areas, the impact is likely to be a poll bounce in General Election polling? And the impact of that is reduced Labour leads over the Conservatives because the ld and green bounce more likely to come at expense of Labour GE polling? Adding the three parties up it will still be around 55 like normal (some recent polls have that creeping up) only Labour will start polling less of the 55 showing smaller leads over Tories from every poster, even Opinoum and Kantor who currently only have the gap about 2?

    This could mean a few months of lots of BigJohnKnowes asking “please explain” and Sunil replying “no Tory lead since 2,000,000 BC” 😆

    What it means is breathing space for the Conservatives in 2023 - they start next year's election campaign from a very low base so any improvement (particularly at the expense of the LDs) will encourage Team Johnson the worst is past and they can go for a big tax cutting Budget and a 2024 election.
    Who is the big tax cutting chancellor that Johnson can call on? Looks like Sunak is out on 6th or 7th May.


  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited May 2022
    EPG said:

    Whether Brits like it or not, Americans choose to codify many, many rights in their written Constitution, from the prohibition of slavery to free speech to gun ownership. The logical outworking of "just settle it by majority rule" is ever-changing unfreedom based on transient outrage in one part of the country, which is exactly what the Constitution is meant to stop. Now, to a Brit, it is easy to settle the gun debate by passing laws based on what the majority wants today, but that's not how Americans think about rights and freedoms.

    The problem is that the US constitution was written at a time when there was general agreement on all sides about what should be in it - although there were still arguments about the detail. I think it would be pretty much impossible to produce a similar document today in the UK or even in the US if it didn't already exist. There is simply too much difference between [people about what such a document should contain and what its purpose should be.

    I personally think that the US constitution is a wonderful document but I just don't see how it could be created today.

    Edit: It is also worth pointing out that differing interpretations of the constitution and its place in US governance was in part responsible for the worst war the US has ever seen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    One gets the impression most Conservatives stopped putting up posters and signs a long time ago, possibly in the mid-1990s.
    There are no Labour posters in Newham but if you think it's going to be anything other than Labour 66, Others 0, good luck with that.
    Come now, they had a mere 54 out of 60 only 16 years ago, it's practically a nailbiter.

    What's hilarious about Newham is I don't think anyone but Labour even got within 700 votes of winning a seat, and most were well over 1000 votes off the pace.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Sandpit said:

    Federal Reserve raises rates from 0.5% to 1% - double the expected rise.

    No it was in line with expectations.
    Big pressure now on BoE.
    FWIW I think the BOE will hike less than the Fed because the UK economy will fall over earlier. Underlying inflationary pressure in the UK is lower and looks like it may be decelerating already.
    iirc Bailey has already said that he worries about recession a lot if they push too far, so you may be right.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    That's about as likely as Tory backbenchers finding the spine to depose Johnson before the local elections.
    Yeah I agree, getting a bit speculative all this.

    But I did like the post where Biden has to think outside the box, and go in hard where they don’t like it up em. Your posts just pour cold water over every suggestion!
    I think term limits would be an excellent and non partisan means of reforming the court. Sadly I don't see any real chance of their being introduced.

    I'd be fine with (though less keen on) court expansion, and while it would be easier to achieve, the Democrats simply don't have the votes, and a failed attempt would probably be worse than none at all.
    Another thing talked about, in excitement of Biden’s election, was adding two new states strongly favouring democrats with their EVs. How long would that take to pull off?
    This bit of fairly desperate (but not entirely unconvincing) speculation is probably the best hope.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/05/after-abortion-decision-leak-what-can-the-chief-justice-do-now.html
    Actually that’s a very good piece, thanks for posting. Turning it from a binary issue, of conflicting placards being whacked over peoples heads, into a compromise, and saying it’s not that far fetched achieving compromise by peeling off justices from each camp.
    Sounds like an EU compromise where the threat of a massive loss for one side is a "compromise" when it just becomes a large loss.

    The real problem at the heart of things is that the Republicans have abused procedures to dominate the court. The Democrats should respond in kind, use this outrage to get a bigger Senate majority and expand the court. If they don't it won't just be abortion that is banned, it will be the morning after pill and gay marriage. The Republicans want to turn the US back into a 1950s society that straight, Christian with traditional gender roles. We shouldn't let them.
    We are just exploring all the outside the box options here today. Compromise actually has a history in abortion law everywhere?

    May I ask Robert Smithson where you get your 70/30 polling split from, is it across several reliable pollsters?

    I mean, if the country is 70/30 one way, and a committee is 70/30 the other way, is that even democracy anymore? Especially if the committee has been loaded by people like Stalin, Robespierre and Trump you understand what I am saying?
    Here you go:


    Which is a piece of nonsense. To leave it to the woman and the doctor is exactly to regulate by law. To do something like that required legislation in England in the 1960s.

    Secondly, it is simply unclear as a position. Does it mean that the decision rests with the doctor, or the woman, or jointly, or one has a casting vote? It's a cop out without meaning.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    stodge said:


    Late to this party, missed the beer and the curry by the look of it. But as someone who travels our nation each day I am happy to give my tuppence worth. Collumpton and Bridgewater on the M5 are notable 0/10s.

    Here in Wales, Pont Abraham is a notable mention best avoided, although with the exception of Reading, Leigh Delamere and Darn everywhere else on the M4 is pretty desperate.

    Come to think of it UK Motorway services are with the exception of the Tebay/Gloucester services are generally an utter disgrace.

    I used to drive a lot in the 80s and 90s and particularly to Cornwall from London. I knew every Little Chef on the A303 and the A30 and used to stop at Victoria (the one in Cornwall) for a late dinner at 8.30pm. Just me, the night and the music all the way from Exeter.

    If I had more time, I'd treat myself to an overnight at the Taunton Deane Road Chef or at Sowton or at Whidden Down. The Little Chef artery-clogging Olympic Breakfast was a British institution along with The Archers, losing at cricket and warm beer but the unhealthy capitalist obsession with profit and loss ended all that - there's more to life than profit and loss after all.

    I'm told the Little Chefs became Starbucks - I've tried their coffee, slightly brackish in taste but better than drinking mud.

    Love the Olympic breakfast! You just don't get fried bread these days!
    Some places don't do it and many don't do it well. There are a few gems out there - my local cafe in the Barking Road is very good. There's a place in central Epsom which does a really good fried slice.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    ?

    This could mean a few months of lots of BigJohnKnowes asking “please explain” and Sunil replying “no Tory lead since 2,000,000 BC” 😆

    December the 6th, actually :lol:

    (Redfield und Wilton)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    There are no Labour posters in Newham but if you think it's going to be anything other than Labour 66, Others 0, good luck with that.

    Come now, they had a mere 54 out of 60 only 16 years ago, it's practically a nailbiter.

    What's hilarious about Newham is I don't think anyone but Labour even got within 700 votes of winning a seat, and most were well over 1000 votes off the pace.
    Yes, I think to overturn the Labour majority in the closest Ward based on 2018 numbers would require a 21% swing. There are a couple of Wards with Labour close to 90% - I think in Little Ilford, the Conservatives need a 39% swing to win the Ward.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    stodge said:


    What it means is breathing space for the Conservatives in 2023 - they start next year's election campaign from a very low base so any improvement (particularly at the expense of the LDs) will encourage Team Johnson the worst is past and they can go for a big tax cutting Budget and a 2024 election.

    Who is the big tax cutting chancellor that Johnson can call on? Looks like Sunak is out on 6th or 7th May.
    If the Conservatives think the route to re-election lies through tax cuts, they'll cut taxes irrespective of whether it's good or bad for the economy (we're not dealing with Ken Clarke anymore - Boris Johnson will find any old acolyte to hold the Red Box and make the announcement).

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    EPG said:

    Whether Brits like it or not, Americans choose to codify many, many rights in their written Constitution, from the prohibition of slavery to free speech to gun ownership. The logical outworking of "just settle it by majority rule" is ever-changing unfreedom based on transient outrage in one part of the country, which is exactly what the Constitution is meant to stop. Now, to a Brit, it is easy to settle the gun debate by passing laws based on what the majority wants today, but that's not how Americans think about rights and freedoms.

    There are considerable similarities, in legal effect, between the ECHR in this country and the Constitution in the US. Both influence the way that other laws are construed and, in extremis, strike them down. Both give the Courts considerable power over the legislature and the executive. Both are capable of being construed differently at different times by differently constituted courts.

    Both, in my view, show the undemocratic nature of such sanctified texts. You can argue that they are a necessary limitation put on the tyranical rights of the majority and prevent oppression of minorities but they can also both be used by highly motivated minorities to simply override the wishes of that majority in pursuit of some legal principle originally drafted a long time ago in a very different society.

    As a lawyer I have reservations about the role of an overactive judiciary. Of course Roe-v-Wade was a compelling example of such an overactive judiciary 50 years ago. I think it is unhelpful to see this as a legal debate. It would be much better if it were a substantive democratic discussion. If you want women to have the right to determine what happens to their own bodies don't vote Republican. Its really that simple.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    1h
    - legal regulations from March 29 2021 did allow indoors gatherings of workers if deemed “reasonably necessary” which is the essence of the Starmer defence

    - but it doesn’t seem that the curry was in line with non-legally binding campaign guidance from March 25 2021, see below

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1521911730347126784


    ===

    FWIW I think Lab should now drop Partygate. Job done. 60% of the country think Johnson is a lying cad. The damage to Brand Johnson has been done, time to move on.

    Now shut up and try and move the agenda onto cost of living, where there is a fecking lightyear's worth of political ground to be had. Get Reeves out there after local elections with a five point plan to actually make a difference. Front foot stuff. Genuine back of a pledge card stuff that could do something.

    Labour can do this because they are in opposition and Johnson and Sunak do not agree over the most fundamental financial issues.



  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    EPG said:

    Whether Brits like it or not, Americans choose to codify many, many rights in their written Constitution, from the prohibition of slavery to free speech to gun ownership. The logical outworking of "just settle it by majority rule" is ever-changing unfreedom based on transient outrage in one part of the country, which is exactly what the Constitution is meant to stop. Now, to a Brit, it is easy to settle the gun debate by passing laws based on what the majority wants today, but that's not how Americans think about rights and freedoms.

    The problem is that the US constitution was written at a time when there was general agreement on all sides about what should be in it - although there were still arguments about the detail. I think it would be pretty much impossible to produce a similar document today in the UK or even in the US if it didn't already exist. There is simply too much difference between [people about what such a document should contain and what its purpose should be.

    I personally think that the US constitution is a wonderful document but I just don't see how it could be created today.

    Edit: It is also worth pointing out that differing interpretations of the constitution and its place in US governance was in part responsible for the worst war the US has ever seen.
    I tend to agree with you: it would be fine to have the protections of the US over a wide range of things I like and don't like. But that's my political position anyway. Other people think there are no such things as rights or freedoms, everything can be compelled on you by a vote of parliament. That's their position.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    Poplar said:

    kle4 said:

    Apologies if this came up earlier, but I had completely missed that conviced election fraud Lutfur Rahman was running again in Tower Hamlets, as his ban for holding elected office has expired. Livingstone is backing him.

    Personally I think if found guilty of such egregious election offences a lifetime ban is the only appropriate punishment. Being a former criminal, sure, stand and win, but a former election criminal? No.

    He seems to be saying he did nothing wrong and was innocent, but also he has learned from his mistakes.

    Hopefully everyone will vote Labour in Tower Hamlets and keep him out.

    Rahman into 6/5 with william hill to win Labour 4/6

    I think Rahman is a good bet - The ethnic make-up is growing more muslim by the day (young muslims reaching 18 etc) . Labour candidate not a muslim. Galloway succeeded here (so no scruples about extreme personalities winning if from a muslim side)
    I may as well use my first post (I have lurked for years) to comment on my local area. I think Rahman is probably about right at 6/5. Certainly Aspire (the Rahman party) were first out of the blocks when it came to campaigning, and you do hear from them occasionally not at election time.

    Every party other than Aspire campaigned to ditch the mayoral system in May 2021. The pro-mayor referendum campaign was basically vote to keep the mayoral system so you can vote for Lutfur Rahman next time. Tower Hamlets voted to keep it by a landslide, so read into that what you will.

    Additionally, Labour haven't come across as amazingly competent over the last 4 years - their liveable streets rollout has been messy, although the theory is popular enough.

    My prediction (no knowledge at all, just a local who reads PB sometimes):
    First Round
    Rahman (Aspire) 36%
    Biggs (Labour) 34%
    Khan (LD) 16%
    Wood (Ind) 8%
    Weaver (Con) 5%
    Pierre (TUSC) 1%
    Holmes (Ind) 0%

    Of the 30% second preference votes up for grabs, it would be something like 6%-2% in favour of Labour, with 22% unused or for other candidates.
    Thanks for your first post. Welcome.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Russian celebrations planned for 9th May.
    Helsingin Sanomat:

    Russia is likely to consider the capture of Mariupol to be its greatest success. Now, Ukraine's military intelligence claims that Russia is concentrating the festivities there.

    “Mariupol will become the center of‘ celebration ’. The streets in the city center are currently being cleaned of rubbish, corpses and munitions, ”the official account of the military intelligence reports on social media.

    “A large-scale propaganda campaign is planned. The Russians are shown stories of the ‘joy’ of the locals when they meet the conquerors. ”

    Nice that they are clearing away the corpses, cadavers and various strewn body parts of dead Ukrainians. Guess they might put a dent in the “joyousness”

    How has Russia become this ludicrous tragicomic caricature of Nazi Germany in about 2 months?
    Lots of buildup.
    I’m not so sure there was. There were indications Russia was increasingly autocratic and aggressive, from Grozny to Aleppo to Crimea, but nonetheless Russia and Russians seemed essentially sane. Greedy, imperialist, punchy, but sane

    In 2022 it appears to have gone quite mad, almost overnight, from the Nazi sloganizing to Putin’s crazy long tables, As if Putin’s allegedly-terminal paranoia has infected the whole nation
    There certainly has been. Fascist ideology has been pushed by the Kremlin for at least a decade, with the likes of Prokhanov and Dugin being amplified and elevated by Russian state media. This has absolutely not been a sudden transformation, it's only a sudden Western focus on what's going on.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    EPG said:

    Whether Brits like it or not, Americans choose to codify many, many rights in their written Constitution, from the prohibition of slavery to free speech to gun ownership. The logical outworking of "just settle it by majority rule" is ever-changing unfreedom based on transient outrage in one part of the country, which is exactly what the Constitution is meant to stop. Now, to a Brit, it is easy to settle the gun debate by passing laws based on what the majority wants today, but that's not how Americans think about rights and freedoms.

    The problem is that the US constitution was written at a time when there was general agreement on all sides about what should be in it - although there were still arguments about the detail. I think it would be pretty much impossible to produce a similar document today in the UK or even in the US if it didn't already exist. There is simply too much difference between [people about what such a document should contain and what its purpose should be.

    I personally think that the US constitution is a wonderful document but I just don't see how it could be created today.

    Edit: It is also worth pointing out that differing interpretations of the constitution and its place in US governance was in part responsible for the worst war the US has ever seen.
    A big part of why there was agreement on all sides was because most people were excluded from the process of writing it. I'm sure if you got together a bunch of wealthy white male landowners and capitalists and asked them to come up with a constitution right now they would probably find a lot to agree about between themselves. This also explains the original document's deficiencies, of course, not all of which have been corrected subsequently.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Biden can't unilaterally increase the size of the Court, but Congress can. It's legal: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/05/1034494416/the-case-for-court-packing-as-a-way-to-promote-democracy Whether it would fly, whether they could get the votes in the Senate to swerve a filibuster, are different questions.

    Nigelb probably right, Senate too tight to get it passed.
    Nigelb possibly wrong if GOP senators visited WH indicating they are not on side of Roe v Wade overturned, which a handful may feel from their own gut politics.

    Should we presume all the GOP senators are on board with abortion becoming illegal? Without trawling through each ones position on it, at least a handful may be for the status quo? Especially if RCS is right in claiming 70% of voters in favour of status quo?
    That's about as likely as Tory backbenchers finding the spine to depose Johnson before the local elections.
    Yeah I agree, getting a bit speculative all this.

    But I did like the post where Biden has to think outside the box, and go in hard where they don’t like it up em. Your posts just pour cold water over every suggestion!
    I think term limits would be an excellent and non partisan means of reforming the court. Sadly I don't see any real chance of their being introduced.

    I'd be fine with (though less keen on) court expansion, and while it would be easier to achieve, the Democrats simply don't have the votes, and a failed attempt would probably be worse than none at all.
    Another thing talked about, in excitement of Biden’s election, was adding two new states strongly favouring democrats with their EVs. How long would that take to pull off?
    This bit of fairly desperate (but not entirely unconvincing) speculation is probably the best hope.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/05/after-abortion-decision-leak-what-can-the-chief-justice-do-now.html
    Actually that’s a very good piece, thanks for posting. Turning it from a binary issue, of conflicting placards being whacked over peoples heads, into a compromise, and saying it’s not that far fetched achieving compromise by peeling off justices from each camp.
    Sounds like an EU compromise where the threat of a massive loss for one side is a "compromise" when it just becomes a large loss.

    The real problem at the heart of things is that the Republicans have abused procedures to dominate the court. The Democrats should respond in kind, use this outrage to get a bigger Senate majority and expand the court. If they don't it won't just be abortion that is banned, it will be the morning after pill and gay marriage. The Republicans want to turn the US back into a 1950s society that straight, Christian with traditional gender roles. We shouldn't let them.
    We are just exploring all the outside the box options here today. Compromise actually has a history in abortion law everywhere?

    May I ask Robert Smithson where you get your 70/30 polling split from, is it across several reliable pollsters?

    I mean, if the country is 70/30 one way, and a committee is 70/30 the other way, is that even democracy anymore? Especially if the committee has been loaded by people like Stalin, Robespierre and Trump you understand what I am saying?
    Here you go:


    Which is a piece of nonsense. To leave it to the woman and the doctor is exactly to regulate by law. To do something like that required legislation in England in the 1960s.

    Secondly, it is simply unclear as a position. Does it mean that the decision rests with the doctor, or the woman, or jointly, or one has a casting vote? It's a cop out without meaning.

    No, it means a womans choice. After all she can change doctor at will.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    A totally anecdotal report from running through a poorer area of Huntingdon and leafy Godmanchester:

    Huntingdon (just to the south of the Oxmoor estate): 1 rather limp-looking Conservative sign, one erect Labour one, and a Lib Dem diamond outside a posh-looking house.

    'Posh' part of Godmanchester: Lib Dem orange everywhere. Three on the same street.

    Make of that what you will.

    Is Godmanchester a heaven for Mancunians?
    Would make a good name for someone in House of Lords.
    A few years back there was an interview on the radio with a lady who had been appointed to the House of Lords. She was advised to take a name from a place she knew and liked, but said that 'Lady ??? of Six Mile Bottom' probably wasn't a good choice....

    Annoyingly, I cannot remember what her name was. It wasn't the old Lady Delamere.
    Baroness Trumpington?
    Brilliant! That was her, thanks; she was talking about her time at Bletchley Park. Se led quite an amazing life.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Barker,_Baroness_Trumpington
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    This leak enquiry is going to be fun, except for those subject to investigation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/supreme-court-leak-probe-faces-slew-of-obstacles-and-unknowns-00029841
    ...Leaks of non-classified information generally are not prosecutable, with very few exceptions,” Painter said. “That’s important to a well-functioning democracy, that leaks are not prosecuted.”

    However, Painter added, the person who breached the court’s confidences should face professional consequences if identified.

    “If a justice intentionally did it, I think that justice could be impeached and removed from office,” he said. “If a clerk did it, they could be dismissed and there might be implications at the bar.”...


    Would be hilarious if it turns out to be Alito - though if it were him, the inquiry would likely be perfunctory and fail to reach a conclusion.

    Imo definitely leaked by supporters of The scrapping of wade v row in June, either over excited oneupmanship, or calculated in making Junes change a fait accompli and yesterdays news.

    Does Biden actually have the power to appoint two additional judges? If so all the pressure will pile on Biden to do that to stop it, and Biden becomes the fall guy wether roe v wade is saved or is dumped.
    Not unilaterally, the power is with Congress. I suspect there are enough Democtratic Senators who realise how foolish it would be to do so, given that the political pendulum will inevitably swing again.
    That is a way to stop the scrapping of Wade v `roe, what other options does Biden have?
    Let Wade v Roe be scrapped, and use it as a great motivator to get the vote out in November?

    Legal abortion (and RvW) is supported by about 70% of voters. If the Republicans manage to move the debate from "Woke" and towards women's reproductive rights, they will have scored an enormous own goal.
    Yes. Courts are not places for closing down the debate in contested issues. That is the job of politics in a democratic society. The same people who support a court process when it is on their side suddenly start attacking the process when it isn't. This is logical nonsense. Only the process of politics, voters, mandates and accountability can sort it.

    BTW on abortion, both extremes want to pretend it isn't a contested issue because the truth is obvious. It's, in a way, like Brexit/Remain. There is such a strong case on BOTH sides that each side needs to be in denial about it.
    This thing about abortion being a "finely balanced issue with strong arguments on both sides". I don't think so. Let's unpack it.

    One side wants to retain a woman's access to safe and legal abortion but with controls. ie to strike a balance between the rights of the woman and those of the unborn child. The case for this is strong conceptually (it's an underpinning of female empowerment) and also pragmatically (it's status quo, plus all the harm resulting to women who are unhappily pregnant and lacking means and options).

    The other side wants a complete ban. ie to subjugate the rights of the woman to those of the unborn child. No balance. Subjugation of the woman. This is EXTREME and the case for it rests on one thing only - a dogmatic ideological assertion that a full fat human life is created from the moment of conception and to abort it is therefore "murder". That's it. There's nothing else. These people can't debate the issue. All they can do is repeat that assertion like a robot. They're dead from the neck up.

    So, I'm sorry and all, but "strong argument on both sides" my arse. It sounds all nuanced and thoughtful and reasonable to say that but it's utter horseshit. There's no equivalence at all.
    Agreed

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions when wanted
    Extreme: abortions even if not wanted
    No, no, no:

    Extreme: no abortions
    Middle ground: abortions up until the end of the second trimester
    Extreme: abortions up until the end of the twelfth trimester
    That South Park episode?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    Applicant said:

    kle4 said:

    Good article by Curtice and Fisher on their Project National Share for local elections and how that may differ from the National Equivalent Vote by Rallings and Thrasher

    https://electionsetc.com/2022/05/04/understanding-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2022/

    That sentence is like chum in a piranha pool to election nerds, and means absolutely nothing to normal people.
    Who let the normal people into PB?
    Don't worry, they won't be around for long.
    But it’s good though because it is the mistake I made last week, misunderstanding projected national from raw vote, maybe there is still a bit of Normal left in me. 😇

    I still remain sceptical exactly how you do a big opinion poll of just Labour areas and few Tory areas, and can extrapolatte that into a reasonable accurate claim as if every area had voted. To start with, those who gave Boris landslide win could soften but still support Boris whilst those voting against Boris in 19 could harden from soft to hard and hard to harder, which is actually a big change in peoples views, but virtually unmeasurable in terms of voting and polling isn’t it?
    I think the answer is that it is not an opinion poll.
    No it’s real votes from mainly labour territory extrapolated, and obviously wouldn’t be the same levels in Tory areas but how on earth do you extrapolate remotely accurately, my point being votes that aren’t votes could have soften a lot, but still be a vote non vote if soften or hardened (likely softened). Does that make it clearer for you?

    I can ask the question very clear like that, but don’t have an answer I’m afraid.
    There's no need to get tetchy. All I'm saying is the final set of percentages is just a comparison tool, not an opinion poll. I'm sure no-one in their right mind believes the next election result will be anything like it. It's just a comparison tool that's all. I would be cockahoop if the libdems reached 16/17%., but I know that's going to be very difficult to do in a general election.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    BREAKING: @BrandonLewis gives signal there won't after all be legislation foreshadowed in next week's Queen's Speech to give government powers to suspend parts of Northern Ireland Protocol. NI Sec stressed importance of negotiation with EU. Full interview ITV 10.45 and Twitter 9 https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1521927079931035648
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: @BrandonLewis gives signal there won't after all be legislation foreshadowed in next week's Queen's Speech to give government powers to suspend parts of Northern Ireland Protocol. NI Sec stressed importance of negotiation with EU. Full interview ITV 10.45 and Twitter 9 https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1521927079931035648

    Good
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004



    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    1h
    - legal regulations from March 29 2021 did allow indoors gatherings of workers if deemed “reasonably necessary” which is the essence of the Starmer defence

    - but it doesn’t seem that the curry was in line with non-legally binding campaign guidance from March 25 2021, see below

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1521911730347126784


    ===

    FWIW I think Lab should now drop Partygate. Job done. 60% of the country think Johnson is a lying cad. The damage to Brand Johnson has been done, time to move on.

    Now shut up and try and move the agenda onto cost of living, where there is a fecking lightyear's worth of political ground to be had. Get Reeves out there after local elections with a five point plan to actually make a difference. Front foot stuff. Genuine back of a pledge card stuff that could do something.

    Labour can do this because they are in opposition and Johnson and Sunak do not agree over the most fundamental financial issues.



    Telegraph tweets

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1521934605993091073?t=cqp4CxQ5FWqXqIvtpEGmSQ&s=19
This discussion has been closed.