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Short Odds, Strong Nerves – Local Election Betting 2022 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 8 in General
imageShort Odds, Strong Nerves – Local Election Betting 2022 – politicalbetting.com

On ‘Election Eve’ it is traditional for some cheeky punters to stick a small mortgage-worth of cash onto a sure thing to try and bag a quick if small return. Apparently during the week of a general election even seats as short as 1/100 see 5 figure bets on this basis, since in theory the annual equivalent ROI of such a bet is very good.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    First.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,454
    Second
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,576
    Short Trousers, Strong Shoes -
    Local Election Canvassing 2022
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167
    Good luck everyone, and remember to save your bus fare home.
  • pingping Posts: 2,143
    edited May 4
    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    I'm a contrary sort, so I'm trying to think of reasons why these bets might come unstuck, but I'm not thinking of much.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 4
    Thank you for this thread Quincel. As I posted y'day I'm on the LibDems to win control of Woking. You can still get 2/1 on this.

    But I'm nervous about it ever since tlg86 challenged the prospects. He lives in the borough as do I.

    Betfair have offered me a cash out. Stick or twist? What's your take Quincel? Others?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 4
    tlg86, I didn't stick around for your reply yesterday but is the golf course part of your route? If it is then check out the wisteria on the club house which is gorgeous at the moment. But what is with the two artificial swans? I've never understood it!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    My brother lives in Kingston and has voted ... LibDem.

    There is not a snowball's chance in hell of them losing control. If the odds were 1/100 it would still be value.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,904

    I'm a contrary sort, so I'm trying to think of reasons why these bets might come unstuck, but I'm not thinking of much.

    Absolutely the right way to look at it, and if you do come up with something I'd be very interested to hear it!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,700
    Good tips Quincel.
    Hillingdon must rival Kensington and Westminster for split boroughs. It's got both the PM and John McDonnell as MP's as proof.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,454
    edited May 4
    Thanks for the header.

    Will the svelte new pescatarian Ed Davey help win Green votes?

    And some people learn very young. I've not met *that* many PBers, but most of us look like that Little 'un.




  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,700
    edited May 4
    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    My brother lives there.
    He definitely has strong opinions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    Thanks Q. Yes, this technique (if you're careful) can work well. I used it to boost my net return on the 2020 US election. Lumped money on surefire states. Boring if this is all you're doing but good as a compliment to your main 'at risk' punting positions.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,904
    Heathener said:

    Thank you for this thread Quincel. As I posted y'day I'm on the LibDems to win control of Woking. You can still get 2/1 on this.

    But I'm nervous about it ever since tlg86 challenged the prospects. He lives in the borough as do I.

    Betfair have offered me a cash out. Stick or twist? What's your take Quincel? Others?

    I think 2/1 is about right, I'd perhaps lean on it being a tad too short rather than a tad of value but it's a marginal call. If the whole council was up you'd probably win, the thirds may well screw you. If I've looked it up right the Lib Dems need 4 gains and while there are prospects they'd need a very good night.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Heathener said:

    tlg86, I didn't stick around for your reply yesterday but is the golf course part of your route? If it is then check out the wisteria on the club house which is gorgeous at the moment. But what is with the two artificial swans? I've never understood it!

    I walk past the lake and the fake swans and then on towards Wych Hill. Just googling fake swans and it seems they might be used to deter geese, but I'm sure I've seen geese on the lake (and the fourth green...).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167
    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    Star Sports Polling Station
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s-gs4vrK0U
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 4
    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Quincel said:

    Heathener said:

    Thank you for this thread Quincel. As I posted y'day I'm on the LibDems to win control of Woking. You can still get 2/1 on this.

    But I'm nervous about it ever since tlg86 challenged the prospects. He lives in the borough as do I.

    Betfair have offered me a cash out. Stick or twist? What's your take Quincel? Others?

    I think 2/1 is about right, I'd perhaps lean on it being a tad too short rather than a tad of value but it's a marginal call. If the whole council was up you'd probably win, the thirds may well screw you. If I've looked it up right the Lib Dems need 4 gains and while there are prospects they'd need a very good night.
    Yep, two gains should be in the bag, but the other two will be gaining wards they've not done in the past. But then the Tories aren't exactly popular at the moment.

    Worth noting that the Victoria Square development has finally opened and Victoria Way is running normally again. I don't know if that will help the Tories.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    tlg86, I didn't stick around for your reply yesterday but is the golf course part of your route? If it is then check out the wisteria on the club house which is gorgeous at the moment. But what is with the two artificial swans? I've never understood it!

    I walk past the lake and the fake swans and then on towards Wych Hill. Just googling fake swans and it seems they might be used to deter geese, but I'm sure I've seen geese on the lake (and the fourth green...).
    :smiley:

    Thanks for this. I never thought to google what they were all about. I've seen geese on there too.

    Ah lovely Wych Hill. The walk down to St John's is very pleasant too. I've often run around there and picked up the canal towpath.

    Surrey is an incredibly beautiful county, with iirc more trees than any other county in England. As well as private schools and dogging. True fact.

    It's just some of the residents ;) And the driving. And the lack of phone masts.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,700
    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    The Tories only need to win 7 of the 8 they are defending. Only one got below 60% of the vote in 2018.
    Superficially, it looks possible. At ward level, it is huge Tory majorities in the wards they win. Over 50% of the borough vote in 2018 and 2022.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,878

    Good luck everyone, and remember to save your bus fare home.

    Unless you are one of Boris' chosen ones, then remember to thank him for his generosity in arranging the bus pass for you.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    But I'm not sure that debt is quite as bad as it looks. A Tory leaflet through the door implied that they were making use of a national fund or something and even the Lib Dems don't think it's that bad...

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2022/1428216/a-liberal-democrat-vision-for-woking

    Borrowing stands at almost £2 billion pounds. Repayments of £60 million have to be found every year. This is why the Liberal Democrats secured a Financial Review. Thankfully the review didn't reveal a catastrophic situation, but it did raise concerns on how the Council will afford repayments in future.

    Of course, perceptions matter, and I have heard people talk about the debt.

    What annoys me is when Tories go on TV and say "Conservative councils keep council tax down". Not in Woking they don't!
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 603
    edited May 4
    When looking at the results according to Andrew Teales Britain Elects excellent review of the local elections Conservatives only have 1,338 seats currently (of those up for consideration this time) in England so suggestions that could lose 800 or even 500 seems to be a severe case of expectation management.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,878
    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,878
    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Not to mention the 2-3% of locals who take the government being so anti-woke personally.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167

    Good luck everyone, and remember to save your bus fare home.

    Unless you are one of Boris' chosen ones, then remember to thank him for his generosity in arranging the bus pass for you.
    Lol. I might need to get one of "Boris's" bus passes in order to vote, as I have no other photo ID.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,016
    Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    tlg86, I didn't stick around for your reply yesterday but is the golf course part of your route? If it is then check out the wisteria on the club house which is gorgeous at the moment. But what is with the two artificial swans? I've never understood it!

    I walk past the lake and the fake swans and then on towards Wych Hill. Just googling fake swans and it seems they might be used to deter geese, but I'm sure I've seen geese on the lake (and the fourth green...).
    :smiley:

    Thanks for this. I never thought to google what they were all about. I've seen geese on there too.

    Ah lovely Wych Hill. The walk down to St John's is very pleasant too. I've often run around there and picked up the canal towpath.

    Surrey is an incredibly beautiful county, with iirc more trees than any other county in England. As well as private schools and dogging. True fact.

    It's just some of the residents ;) And the driving. And the lack of phone masts.
    This is great info. I knew about the private schools and the dogging (the two go together, obvs) but the trees are news to me. Incredibly, New Cross used to be in Surrey, before LCC days, although it certainly doesn't have a Surrey vibe these days (except for the sometimes surprisingly poor phone reception).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,700

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Heathener said:

    tlg86, I didn't stick around for your reply yesterday but is the golf course part of your route? If it is then check out the wisteria on the club house which is gorgeous at the moment. But what is with the two artificial swans? I've never understood it!

    Keeping away some critter that's afeared of swans?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713
    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header.

    Will the svelte new pescatarian Ed Davey help win Green votes?

    And some people learn very young. I've not met *that* many PBers, but most of us look like that Little 'un.




    It’s a who blinks first dies contest 🤗
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 218
    Andrew Teale has produced his usual useful summary of the local elections

    https://medium.com/britainelects/andrew-teales-2022-local-election-previews-e9fe434dc869
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 496
    Here in leafy rural North Hertfordshire it's almost impossible to gets your sedan chair or carriage through to Chez JackW without being accosted by an army of "Winning Here" diamond posters or the attendant yellow peril highwaymen armed to the teeth with bullet point "Focus" leaflets.

    And where pray are the blunder(buss)Tories to repel this invasion? - Totally absent. St Albans and Harpenden are further lost to the orange demon diamond hordes .. :confounded:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,874
    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Ohio 2022 Primary - US Senate

    Republican Primary (over 95% counted)
    Candidate Votes
    J.D. Vance
    340,991 32.2%
    Josh Mandel
    253,051 23.9%
    Matt Dolan
    247,042 23.3%
    Mike Gibbons
    123,417 11.7%
    Jane Timken
    62,237 5.9%
    Mark Pukita
    22,478 2.1%
    Neil Patel
    9,897 0.9%
    Total reported
    1,059,113

    Democratic Primary (86% counted)Candidate Votes Pct.
    Tim Ryan
    355,764 69.7%6
    Morgan Harper
    90,485 17.7%
    Traci Johnson
    64,113 12.6%
    Total reported
    510,362

    Ryan won 2/3 carrying every county in the Buckeye State. But total Dem vote just half of GOP total.

    In the Republican primary, Vance won with less than 1/3 of total vote, leading his nearest opponent, Mandel, by over +8% and over +87k votes.

    Of Ohio's 88 counties, Dolan carried just three, all big: Franklin (Columbus), Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Geauga (affluent Clev. burbs); Mandel won eleven, small city/rural spread across central part of state; and Vance took the other 74 sweeping southern Ohio and including Cincinnati, Toledo, Youngstown, Akron, Dayton, Springfield and Middletown where Vance grew up (in at least one sense of the word).
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    The Tories only need to win 7 of the 8 they are defending. Only one got below 60% of the vote in 2018.
    Superficially, it looks possible. At ward level, it is huge Tory majorities in the wards they win. Over 50% of the borough vote in 2018 and 2022.
    Having grown up there, and still having politically-connected rellies there...

    Gosport is all up this time, because of new boundaries.

    The problem for the Conservatives is that they win their safe wards (basically the seaside ones) by massive majorities on huge turnouts. The trouble is that they sometimes/often struggle in the rest of the borough, which looks like a bit of the north that broke off and got stuck back in the wrong place.

    The problem from a betting point of view is that the results in Gosport pretty much depend on one specific Lib Dem activist, the mood he is in and whether he can pull the rest of the party with him. On his day, he can sweep the board, but he can also annoy the rest of his party enough to almost destroy it. That's been true since the 1980's, and he's still at it. I suspect he will be enjoying the government's current tribulations, but I'm too many miles away to know.

    NOC is possible, but tricky. Basically, it requires a decent showing by Labour, and they have had a torrid time over the last few years.

    In short, search me guv.

    (The problem with local elections- unless the national tide is an absolute tsunami, the countercurrents at ward level can make odd things happen in specific places. To take another example, Havering ought to stay NOC, though perhaps Residents-led minority rather than Conservative-led minority. But there are enough wards where the result is something of a lottery that a Conservative majority or a Residents majority aren't impossible.)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    edited May 4
    JACK_W said:

    Here in leafy rural North Hertfordshire it's almost impossible to gets your sedan chair or carriage through to Chez JackW without being accosted by an army of "Winning Here" diamond posters or the attendant yellow peril highwaymen armed to the teeth with bullet point "Focus" leaflets.

    And where pray are the blunder(buss)Tories to repel this invasion? - Totally absent. St Albans and Harpenden are further lost to the orange demon diamond hordes .. :confounded:

    Serves you right for NOT standing for the Reformed Jacobean Tendency.

    A Rotten Candidate for a Rotten Borough - Black Adder
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tkb9SIe4WWo
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header.

    Will the svelte new pescatarian Ed Davey help win Green votes?

    And some people learn very young. I've not met *that* many PBers, but most of us look like that Little 'un.




    Sir Winston eyes the Red Menace with disfavor.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748

    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    Seems Tory election leaflets avoid mentioning their glorious leader.

    And yet he is only PM because of his star quality and campaigning skills that allow him to connect with the public and reach parts no other politician can.

    Shome mishtake surely?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713

    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.

    Copyright the late Jeremy Thorpe of course.
    Of another Old Etonian Tory PM.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header.

    Will the svelte new pescatarian Ed Davey help win Green votes?

    And some people learn very young. I've not met *that* many PBers, but most of us look like that Little 'un.




    Sir Winston eyes the Red Menace with disfavor.
    The baby is thinking, "blimey if you are the future, what the hell did the past look like?"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    The other factor is they will not be paying NI, and income tax is of course focussed on the higher part of the income.

    If one has saved for a reasonable occupational and/or private pension and/or ISAs and has a decent income available, then the impact of NI and income tax disporportionately hit the salary and reduce it to something much closer to the net pension etc income than one might think from the ratios of gross income in work vs retirement. I'm sure the news of the increase in the tax known as "NI" will be making this much worse.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    JACK_W said:

    Here in leafy rural North Hertfordshire it's almost impossible to gets your sedan chair or carriage through to Chez JackW without being accosted by an army of "Winning Here" diamond posters or the attendant yellow peril highwaymen armed to the teeth with bullet point "Focus" leaflets.

    And where pray are the blunder(buss)Tories to repel this invasion? - Totally absent. St Albans and Harpenden are further lost to the orange demon diamond hordes .. :confounded:

    Bringer of such fine news 🤗
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152
    edited May 4

    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.

    Copyright the late Jeremy Thorpe of course.
    Of another Old Etonian Tory PM.
    ..
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,719
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    The other factor is they will not be paying NI, and income tax is of course focussed on the higher part of the income.

    If one has saved for a reasonable occupational and/or private pension and/or ISAs and has a decent income available, then the impact of NI and income tax disporportionately hit the salary and reduce it to something much closer to the net pension etc income than one might think from the ratios of gross income in work vs retirement. I'm sure the news of the increase in the tax known as "NI" will be making this much worse.

    Its the same old quandry, the more taxes are increased the more people do to avoid paying them
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    The other factor is they will not be paying NI, and income tax is of course focussed on the higher part of the income.

    If one has saved for a reasonable occupational and/or private pension and/or ISAs and has a decent income available, then the impact of NI and income tax disporportionately hit the salary and reduce it to something much closer to the net pension etc income than one might think from the ratios of gross income in work vs retirement. I'm sure the news of the increase in the tax known as "NI" will be making this much worse.

    Its the same old quandry, the more taxes are increased the more people do to avoid paying them
    Well, the Tories certainly have done their best for their pensioner voters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    The other factor is they will not be paying NI, and income tax is of course focussed on the higher part of the income.

    If one has saved for a reasonable occupational and/or private pension and/or ISAs and has a decent income available, then the impact of NI and income tax disporportionately hit the salary and reduce it to something much closer to the net pension etc income than one might think from the ratios of gross income in work vs retirement. I'm sure the news of the increase in the tax known as "NI" will be making this much worse.

    Its the same old quandry, the more taxes are increased the more people do to avoid paying them
    Well, the Tories certainly have done their best for their pensioner voters.
    No, the Tories reneged on their triple lock manifesto promise.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713
    Carnyx said:

    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.

    Copyright the late Jeremy Thorpe of course.
    Of another Old Etonian Tory PM.
    I thought a man's best friend was his dog?
    It wasn't Jeremy's dog. It was a (former) friend's dog!
    And the Court decided Jeremy knew little or nothing about it. So that's all right then!

    Actually, I'm rather wondering whether/when I can get hold of a copy of Norman Scott's (or whatever he was called) book.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    The other factor is they will not be paying NI, and income tax is of course focussed on the higher part of the income.

    If one has saved for a reasonable occupational and/or private pension and/or ISAs and has a decent income available, then the impact of NI and income tax disporportionately hit the salary and reduce it to something much closer to the net pension etc income than one might think from the ratios of gross income in work vs retirement. I'm sure the news of the increase in the tax known as "NI" will be making this much worse.

    Its the same old quandry, the more taxes are increased the more people do to avoid paying them
    Well, the Tories certainly have done their best for their pensioner voters.
    No, the Tories reneged on their triple lock manifesto promise.
    True, but only temporarily, and look at the IT, IHT and NI setup compared to 2010.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Carnyx said:

    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.

    Copyright the late Jeremy Thorpe of course.
    Of another Old Etonian Tory PM.
    I thought a man's best friend was his dog?
    It wasn't Jeremy's dog. It was a (former) friend's dog!
    And the Court decided Jeremy knew little or nothing about it. So that's all right then!

    Actually, I'm rather wondering whether/when I can get hold of a copy of Norman Scott's (or whatever he was called) book.
    Thanks, I wasn't very sure on reflection, it was a long time ago! Apologies to Mr Thorpe.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    Is Russia's military hardware decrepit?

    My impression is that their hardware has mostly been fine, it's principally in terms of training and strategy that they've been poor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,143

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,910
    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,143
    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Looks as though Ukraine took out a sizeable supply column yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1521556446747541510

    They’re still making daily attacks on Russian materiel in the field, and slowly depleting the enemy of resources.

    Ukranian figures are now more than 1,000 tanks destroyed, out of what they now say is a serviceable number of only 3,300.

    We know there’s around 10k tanks in Russia, but the majority of them are in graveyards and not close to being able to be sent to battle.

    https://www.minusrus.com/en — Ukranian claims for Russian casualties.
    There was a rather interesting youtube on here the other day - a chap looking for Russian tank storage sites.

    He seemed to find rather a lot of hulks missing turrets, left out in the open. Scrap essentially.

    I think he was saying that there were a few thousand that looked usable (from Google Maps images) our of the 6K or so tanks he found.

    EDIT - found it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA

    He says less than half of the 6K or so look usable.
    That’s a good video, thanks for posting. It tends to back up the Ukranian figures, which is good, and it means that somewhere between a quarter and a third of the entire serviceable Russian tank fleet has been lost. They’ll need tanks elsewhere too, Russia is a big place, so we might be looking at close to half the Russian tanks gone already - meaning they have only two or three months left of attrition at the current rate.

    Also interesting that the US figures for attrition of tanks in a land war, are almost exactly what’s been observed with Russian losses in Ukraine.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167

    Carnyx said:

    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.

    Copyright the late Jeremy Thorpe of course.
    Of another Old Etonian Tory PM.
    I thought a man's best friend was his dog?
    It wasn't Jeremy's dog. It was a (former) friend's dog!
    And the Court decided Jeremy knew little or nothing about it. So that's all right then!

    Actually, I'm rather wondering whether/when I can get hold of a copy of Norman Scott's (or whatever he was called) book.
    Norman Scott is still alive, isn't he? iirc he popped up on telly after A Very English Scandal was broadcast. By all accounts, the judge was right about Scott being a sponger. Is there a counterfactual history where Thorpe sorts out Scott's NI card and they all live happily ever after?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,399
    edited May 4
    any insight or opinion on the Tower Hamlets mayor election - William hill have labour 4/6 and Ruhman 5/4 (LD 12/1)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,053

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    Is Russia's military hardware decrepit?

    My impression is that their hardware has mostly been fine, it's principally in terms of training and strategy that they've been poor.
    Early on there was a lot of stuff about the (perished) state of their tyres. If you can't get that right you can't do anything right.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,053

    Carnyx said:

    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.

    Copyright the late Jeremy Thorpe of course.
    Of another Old Etonian Tory PM.
    I thought a man's best friend was his dog?
    It wasn't Jeremy's dog. It was a (former) friend's dog!
    And the Court decided Jeremy knew little or nothing about it. So that's all right then!

    Actually, I'm rather wondering whether/when I can get hold of a copy of Norman Scott's (or whatever he was called) book.
    Norman Scott is still alive, isn't he? iirc he popped up on telly after A Very English Scandal was broadcast. By all accounts, the judge was right about Scott being a sponger. Is there a counterfactual history where Thorpe sorts out Scott's NI card and they all live happily ever after?
    I met him in Devon 3 or 4 years ago
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Johnson will not solve anything by implementing a reshuffle if (1) he continues to appoint people based on loyalty and Brexit stance rather than capability, and (2) the Tories have no ideas and solutions to the challenges Britain faces.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1521785331892293632
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1521778069232627712
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,143
    edited May 4

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    What we need now, is for Lavrov to upset the Saudis, as the Russians did a couple of years ago, and watch OPEC up production to drive the price (and Russia’s main source of foreign currency) down. This would be good for everyone except Russia.

    It’s already been said that Russian reserves are close to full, at which point they will need to start shutting production down or burn it off, if they can’t sell it. They also rely heavily on Western equipment and services for their O&G industry, which will quickly become unserviceable due to sanctions.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167
    edited May 4

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    I'm not convinced about Putin's call-up plans. Russia's problem is equipment; it does not not a lack untrained recruits. I suppose he could move newbies into the occupied regions to free up battle-hardened troops. One perverse effect of sanctions is increased unemployment so perhaps some will take Putin's shilling.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    edited May 4
    I see Starmer made a mistake on GMB:

    https://order-order.com/2022/05/04/keir-squirms-over-beergate-scrutiny-we-were-working/

    “We were on the road, at the end of the day, we were in the office preparing. Now, that evening, from memory, we were doing an online event for members… at some point, this was in the evening, everyone is hungry. A takeaway was ordered… in Durham all restaurants and pubs were closed.”

    On the 30 April 2021, I was doing my bit for my local by having a drink in the garden.

    Oh, and on 1 May 2021, we had lunch outside at a restaurant in Weybridge.

    What annoys me is that Starmer et al clearly weren't going the extra mile to stop the spread of COVID. They have consistently been on the safety-first side of the COVID argument, so it's annoying to see that when they thought no one was watching, they weren't that bothered about it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Ohio results are quite interesting re: the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo

    > clear and convincing victory for 45's anointed in a key (if no longer battleground) state for his Next Hurrah in 2024; Vance was stuck in back of the GOP pack UNTIL he secured Trump's endorsement.

    > yet fewer than one in four Republican primary voters picked 45's pick; his imprimatur alone is NOT enough to sway more than a fraction of GOP voters in a major primary.

    > still that fraction was decisive, in THIS primary anyway, which was crowded, super-expensive, media-saturated, hotly-contested, high-profile big-stakes race.

    > Trump backers, whether MAGA maniacs or less fervent but still supportive, did NOT coalesce behind Vance in the primary, but instead split their votes between him, Mandel, Gibbons and Timken; even Dolan got a few; in part because many were more turned off by Vance's flip-flopping on 45 more that The Donald himself.

    > Vance should be able to unite the lion's share of the solid Trump vote in Ohio this Fall. However, contested primaries often leave wounds and open fissures that can be tough to heal. Plus in Tim Ryan the Democrats have united solidly behind a competitive, combative moderate who will NOT hesitate to throw Joe Biden under the bus like he did with Nancy Pelosi. AND will also not hesitate to do battle with Vance from Parma to Portsmouth, Lima to East Liverpool.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 140

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    The Tories only need to win 7 of the 8 they are defending. Only one got below 60% of the vote in 2018.
    Superficially, it looks possible. At ward level, it is huge Tory majorities in the wards they win. Over 50% of the borough vote in 2018 and 2022.
    Having grown up there, and still having politically-connected rellies there...

    Gosport is all up this time, because of new boundaries.

    The problem for the Conservatives is that they win their safe wards (basically the seaside ones) by massive majorities on huge turnouts. The trouble is that they sometimes/often struggle in the rest of the borough, which looks like a bit of the north that broke off and got stuck back in the wrong place.

    The problem from a betting point of view is that the results in Gosport pretty much depend on one specific Lib Dem activist, the mood he is in and whether he can pull the rest of the party with him. On his day, he can sweep the board, but he can also annoy the rest of his party enough to almost destroy it. That's been true since the 1980's, and he's still at it. I suspect he will be enjoying the government's current tribulations, but I'm too many miles away to know.

    NOC is possible, but tricky. Basically, it requires a decent showing by Labour, and they have had a torrid time over the last few years.

    In short, search me guv.

    (The problem with local elections- unless the national tide is an absolute tsunami, the countercurrents at ward level can make odd things happen in specific places. To take another example, Havering ought to stay NOC, though perhaps Residents-led minority rather than Conservative-led minority. But there are enough wards where the result is something of a lottery that a Conservative majority or a Residents majority aren't impossible.)
    Re Havering, I think the same, but then the other day I passed the green in Havering-atte-Bower where there is a scarecrow exhibition/competition going on, and in the stocks is... Boris. And this is the most Tory part of a safe Tory ward.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,878
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    It has certainly made doctors pay tricky.

    Pay them more, they can retire earlier.
    Pay them less, they think sod this, and retire earlier.

    Not sure of the short term solution, or if there even is one.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    edited May 4
    IshmaelZ said:

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    Is Russia's military hardware decrepit?

    My impression is that their hardware has mostly been fine, it's principally in terms of training and strategy that they've been poor.
    Early on there was a lot of stuff about the (perished) state of their tyres. If you can't get that right you can't do anything right.
    They've still managed to put a lot of hardware into the field and cause a lot of damage.

    These Oniks anti-ship missiles that they've been using against land targets look quite technically advanced. Maybe corruption means they only have half the number they might have, but if they can get those right they can likely maintain a nuclear deterrent.

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1520702173797044226
  • PJHPJH Posts: 140
    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Same here in Havering. My leaflet talks about the 'Labour supporting Residents Association' conveniently forgetting that the minority Tory council is sustained in place by the Residents Association.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,719
    edited May 4

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    Is Russia's military hardware decrepit?

    My impression is that their hardware has mostly been fine, it's principally in terms of training and strategy that they've been poor.
    A lot of it does seem very old and outdated.

    Ticked box maintenance happens in the UK all the time and is a massive moneyspinner for very little work.

    Companies just want to meet regulation requirements to ensure that their insurance etc is valid and employ a suitably qulaified company to carry out the maintenance on a particulat system/installation. They have no idea whats done but as long as the maintenance schedule is completed they are happy. Often nothing is done. Its easy money.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,700

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    The Tories only need to win 7 of the 8 they are defending. Only one got below 60% of the vote in 2018.
    Superficially, it looks possible. At ward level, it is huge Tory majorities in the wards they win. Over 50% of the borough vote in 2018 and 2022.
    Having grown up there, and still having politically-connected rellies there...

    Gosport is all up this time, because of new boundaries.

    The problem for the Conservatives is that they win their safe wards (basically the seaside ones) by massive majorities on huge turnouts. The trouble is that they sometimes/often struggle in the rest of the borough, which looks like a bit of the north that broke off and got stuck back in the wrong place.

    The problem from a betting point of view is that the results in Gosport pretty much depend on one specific Lib Dem activist, the mood he is in and whether he can pull the rest of the party with him. On his day, he can sweep the board, but he can also annoy the rest of his party enough to almost destroy it. That's been true since the 1980's, and he's still at it. I suspect he will be enjoying the government's current tribulations, but I'm too many miles away to know.

    NOC is possible, but tricky. Basically, it requires a decent showing by Labour, and they have had a torrid time over the last few years.

    In short, search me guv.

    (The problem with local elections- unless the national tide is an absolute tsunami, the countercurrents at ward level can make odd things happen in specific places. To take another example, Havering ought to stay NOC, though perhaps Residents-led minority rather than Conservative-led minority. But there are enough wards where the result is something of a lottery that a Conservative majority or a Residents majority aren't impossible.)
    Cheers for that.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    I'm not convinced about Putin's call-up plans. Russia's problem is equipment; it does not not a lack untrained recruits. I suppose he could move newbies into the occupied regions to free up battle-hardened troops. One perverse effect of sanctions is increased unemployment so perhaps some will take Putin's shilling.
    The Russian Army is driving around mostly empty armoured personnel carriers because it has a severe manpower shortage.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,198

    Russia's military hardware decrepit?

    It's like every other military. Some of the gear is mint, some of it is haggard old shit, some of it only exists on paper, etc. Only the proportions vary from country to country.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    There is not greater thing a man can do, than to lay down his friends for his life.

    Johnson's attitude on 6th May.

    Copyright the late Jeremy Thorpe of course.
    Of another Old Etonian Tory PM.
    I thought a man's best friend was his dog?
    It wasn't Jeremy's dog. It was a (former) friend's dog!
    And the Court decided Jeremy knew little or nothing about it. So that's all right then!

    Actually, I'm rather wondering whether/when I can get hold of a copy of Norman Scott's (or whatever he was called) book.
    Norman Scott is still alive, isn't he? iirc he popped up on telly after A Very English Scandal was broadcast. By all accounts, the judge was right about Scott being a sponger. Is there a counterfactual history where Thorpe sorts out Scott's NI card and they all live happily ever after?
    I met him in Devon 3 or 4 years ago
    He was on TV plugging a book three or four weeks ago. Apparently he's giving his account of his life, and of course, L'Affaire Bunnies.
    He said he'd been given a house in Devon, I gathered not too long after the trial and had been living there ever since, although at one stage Wikipedia says he was living and working in Ireland.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,864
    "Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. Yhe has bets on the Tories"

    That's a pronoun I've not encountered before.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Same here in Havering. My leaflet talks about the 'Labour supporting Residents Association' conveniently forgetting that the minority Tory council is sustained in place by the Residents Association.
    Ah, but which Residents' Association? The official (fairly normal) one, the renegade but sort of in-line Independent Residents' Association (like a RA, but very right wing indeed), or the treacherous Residents' Association (who have backed the Conservative administration for the last few years).

    There are quite a lot of wards where RA-on-RA action might let Conservatives come through the middle.

    Havering politics is utterly bonkers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,143

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    It has certainly made doctors pay tricky.

    Pay them more, they can retire earlier.
    Pay them less, they think sod this, and retire earlier.

    Not sure of the short term solution, or if there even is one.
    The obvious one is to remove the lifetime pension contributions limit and the £100k 60% rate madness, but together these raise several billion for the Treasury.

    Limiting tax relief on pension contributions to 20% has been mooted for years, but it will be about as unpopular as inheritance tax with the Tory faithful.

    Anything else is tinkering around the edges, and changes to private sector pensions neglect the elephant which is a lot of final salary schemes still around in the public sector.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713

    "Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. Yhe has bets on the Tories"

    That's a pronoun I've not encountered before.

    Anglo-Saxon, I think.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,700
    PJH said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    The Tories only need to win 7 of the 8 they are defending. Only one got below 60% of the vote in 2018.
    Superficially, it looks possible. At ward level, it is huge Tory majorities in the wards they win. Over 50% of the borough vote in 2018 and 2022.
    Having grown up there, and still having politically-connected rellies there...

    Gosport is all up this time, because of new boundaries.

    The problem for the Conservatives is that they win their safe wards (basically the seaside ones) by massive majorities on huge turnouts. The trouble is that they sometimes/often struggle in the rest of the borough, which looks like a bit of the north that broke off and got stuck back in the wrong place.

    The problem from a betting point of view is that the results in Gosport pretty much depend on one specific Lib Dem activist, the mood he is in and whether he can pull the rest of the party with him. On his day, he can sweep the board, but he can also annoy the rest of his party enough to almost destroy it. That's been true since the 1980's, and he's still at it. I suspect he will be enjoying the government's current tribulations, but I'm too many miles away to know.

    NOC is possible, but tricky. Basically, it requires a decent showing by Labour, and they have had a torrid time over the last few years.

    In short, search me guv.

    (The problem with local elections- unless the national tide is an absolute tsunami, the countercurrents at ward level can make odd things happen in specific places. To take another example, Havering ought to stay NOC, though perhaps Residents-led minority rather than Conservative-led minority. But there are enough wards where the result is something of a lottery that a Conservative majority or a Residents majority aren't impossible.)
    Re Havering, I think the same, but then the other day I passed the green in Havering-atte-Bower where there is a scarecrow exhibition/competition going on, and in the stocks is... Boris. And this is the most Tory part of a safe Tory ward.
    To be fair.
    Which other famous person would immediately spring to mind when planning to enter a scarecrow competition?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    I'm not convinced about Putin's call-up plans. Russia's problem is equipment; it does not not a lack untrained recruits. I suppose he could move newbies into the occupied regions to free up battle-hardened troops. One perverse effect of sanctions is increased unemployment so perhaps some will take Putin's shilling.
    The Russian Army is driving around mostly empty armoured personnel carriers because it has a severe manpower shortage.
    Are they down to conscripting their bots? IF not as cannon fodder, maybe as fire wardens?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,719
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see Starmer made a mistake on GMB:

    https://order-order.com/2022/05/04/keir-squirms-over-beergate-scrutiny-we-were-working/

    “We were on the road, at the end of the day, we were in the office preparing. Now, that evening, from memory, we were doing an online event for members… at some point, this was in the evening, everyone is hungry. A takeaway was ordered… in Durham all restaurants and pubs were closed.”

    On the 30 April 2021, I was doing my bit for my local by having a drink in the garden.

    Oh, and on 1 May 2021, we had lunch outside at a restaurant in Weybridge.

    What annoys me is that Starmer et al clearly weren't going the extra mile to stop the spread of COVID. They have consistently been on the safety-first side of the COVID argument, so it's annoying to see that when they thought no one was watching, they weren't that bothered about it.

    I’ve been consistent in saying that this whole thing is a silly and overblown story from years ago - but Starmer doesn’t think so, he led with six questions about ‘parties’ for four weeks running at PMQs, and has been vocal in suggesting the PM should resign over forgetting about his birthday cake.

    If you’re going to take that approach to personal morality, you’d better make damn sure that you’re whiter than white yourself.

    The ‘narrative’ is now that they’re all as bad as each other on this issue.
    How will SKS survive as PM with the scrutiny that he will put under if he can't deal with this one bit of very minor scrutiny
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    dixiedean said:

    PJH said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    The Tories only need to win 7 of the 8 they are defending. Only one got below 60% of the vote in 2018.
    Superficially, it looks possible. At ward level, it is huge Tory majorities in the wards they win. Over 50% of the borough vote in 2018 and 2022.
    Having grown up there, and still having politically-connected rellies there...

    Gosport is all up this time, because of new boundaries.

    The problem for the Conservatives is that they win their safe wards (basically the seaside ones) by massive majorities on huge turnouts. The trouble is that they sometimes/often struggle in the rest of the borough, which looks like a bit of the north that broke off and got stuck back in the wrong place.

    The problem from a betting point of view is that the results in Gosport pretty much depend on one specific Lib Dem activist, the mood he is in and whether he can pull the rest of the party with him. On his day, he can sweep the board, but he can also annoy the rest of his party enough to almost destroy it. That's been true since the 1980's, and he's still at it. I suspect he will be enjoying the government's current tribulations, but I'm too many miles away to know.

    NOC is possible, but tricky. Basically, it requires a decent showing by Labour, and they have had a torrid time over the last few years.

    In short, search me guv.

    (The problem with local elections- unless the national tide is an absolute tsunami, the countercurrents at ward level can make odd things happen in specific places. To take another example, Havering ought to stay NOC, though perhaps Residents-led minority rather than Conservative-led minority. But there are enough wards where the result is something of a lottery that a Conservative majority or a Residents majority aren't impossible.)
    Re Havering, I think the same, but then the other day I passed the green in Havering-atte-Bower where there is a scarecrow exhibition/competition going on, and in the stocks is... Boris. And this is the most Tory part of a safe Tory ward.
    To be fair.
    Which other famous person would immediately spring to mind when planning to enter a scarecrow competition?
    Are we sure it wasn't Boris having some downtime?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,016
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Personal Statement - I recently and mistakenly implied, that JackW is a Reformed Jacobean. When of course we all know he is a Reclaimed Jacobin.

    I apologize profusely, unreservedly, repeatedly for any and all discomfort I have caused to JackW personally, and for the shame I have brought upon PB.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713

    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Same here in Havering. My leaflet talks about the 'Labour supporting Residents Association' conveniently forgetting that the minority Tory council is sustained in place by the Residents Association.
    Ah, but which Residents' Association? The official (fairly normal) one, the renegade but sort of in-line Independent Residents' Association (like a RA, but very right wing indeed), or the treacherous Residents' Association (who have backed the Conservative administration for the last few years).

    There are quite a lot of wards where RA-on-RA action might let Conservatives come through the middle.

    Havering politics is utterly bonkers.
    Castle Point, my long-time stamping ground, has the Canvey Island Independence Party, which usually get the majority of the Island's seats, and I see there's now something called 'The Peoples Independent Party' fighting several seats on the mainland.
    I'm out of touch with matters there nowadays, so I don't know what's really going on.
    No Lib Dems, which slightly saddens me.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 140

    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Same here in Havering. My leaflet talks about the 'Labour supporting Residents Association' conveniently forgetting that the minority Tory council is sustained in place by the Residents Association.
    Ah, but which Residents' Association? The official (fairly normal) one, the renegade but sort of in-line Independent Residents' Association (like a RA, but very right wing indeed), or the treacherous Residents' Association (who have backed the Conservative administration for the last few years).

    There are quite a lot of wards where RA-on-RA action might let Conservatives come through the middle.

    Havering politics is utterly bonkers.
    The official Havering Residents' association. I knew about the Independent Residents (without paying too much attention I thought they were more pro-Labour) but didn't realise there was a third grouping and they were the ones keeping the Tories in. I just see them all as a bunch of right wing nutcases and it doesn't make much difference who wins. I expect Labour to take enough off both for NOM to stay, but the HRA have put some effort into my ward for the first time ever so who knows?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967

    "Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. Yhe has bets on the Tories"

    That's a pronoun I've not encountered before.

    Pronoun of one self-identifying as willing to have sex with something?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Personal Statement - I recently and mistakenly implied, that JackW is a Reformed Jacobean. When of course we all know he is a Reclaimed Jacobin.

    I apologize profusely, unreservedly, repeatedly for any and all discomfort I have caused to JackW personally, and for the shame I have brought upon PB.

    Surely a Returned Jacobite?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    It has certainly made doctors pay tricky.

    Pay them more, they can retire earlier.
    Pay them less, they think sod this, and retire earlier.

    Not sure of the short term solution, or if there even is one.
    The obvious one is to remove the lifetime pension contributions limit and the £100k 60% rate madness, but together these raise several billion for the Treasury.

    Limiting tax relief on pension contributions to 20% has been mooted for years, but it will be about as unpopular as inheritance tax with the Tory faithful.

    Anything else is tinkering around the edges, and changes to private sector pensions neglect the elephant which is a lot of final salary schemes still around in the public sector.
    A related pension problem is that once any pension has been taken, future relief is limited to 4 per cent so there is a disincentive for those who lost or left jobs during the pandemic to return to work.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    It has certainly made doctors pay tricky.

    Pay them more, they can retire earlier.
    Pay them less, they think sod this, and retire earlier.

    Not sure of the short term solution, or if there even is one.
    Make working lives better? Not everything is about money. Same with teachers.

    Getting rid of the hassle factor is a major step to staff retention.

  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 2,605
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see Starmer made a mistake on GMB:

    https://order-order.com/2022/05/04/keir-squirms-over-beergate-scrutiny-we-were-working/

    “We were on the road, at the end of the day, we were in the office preparing. Now, that evening, from memory, we were doing an online event for members… at some point, this was in the evening, everyone is hungry. A takeaway was ordered… in Durham all restaurants and pubs were closed.”

    On the 30 April 2021, I was doing my bit for my local by having a drink in the garden.

    Oh, and on 1 May 2021, we had lunch outside at a restaurant in Weybridge.

    What annoys me is that Starmer et al clearly weren't going the extra mile to stop the spread of COVID. They have consistently been on the safety-first side of the COVID argument, so it's annoying to see that when they thought no one was watching, they weren't that bothered about it.

    I’ve been consistent in saying that this whole thing is a silly and overblown story from years ago - but Starmer doesn’t think so, he led with six questions about ‘parties’ for four weeks running at PMQs, and has been vocal in suggesting the PM should resign over forgetting about his birthday cake.

    If you’re going to take that approach to personal morality, you’d better make damn sure that you’re whiter than white yourself.

    The ‘narrative’ is now that they’re all as bad as each other on this issue.
    Shut up. He was doing pieces to camera.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152
    edited May 4

    "Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. Yhe has bets on the Tories"

    That's a pronoun I've not encountered before.

    Pronoun of one self-identifying as willing to have sex with something?
    You need to be more specific (pun intended).

    Edit: no reflection on Quincel, of course: just the ambiguity ...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,016
    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Same here in Havering. My leaflet talks about the 'Labour supporting Residents Association' conveniently forgetting that the minority Tory council is sustained in place by the Residents Association.
    Ah, but which Residents' Association? The official (fairly normal) one, the renegade but sort of in-line Independent Residents' Association (like a RA, but very right wing indeed), or the treacherous Residents' Association (who have backed the Conservative administration for the last few years).

    There are quite a lot of wards where RA-on-RA action might let Conservatives come through the middle.

    Havering politics is utterly bonkers.
    The official Havering Residents' association. I knew about the Independent Residents (without paying too much attention I thought they were more pro-Labour) but didn't realise there was a third grouping and they were the ones keeping the Tories in. I just see them all as a bunch of right wing nutcases and it doesn't make much difference who wins. I expect Labour to take enough off both for NOM to stay, but the HRA have put some effort into my ward for the first time ever so who knows?
    Isn't the rule of thumb in local elections that if you're not voting for any of the major parties then you're voting Conservative?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see Starmer made a mistake on GMB:

    https://order-order.com/2022/05/04/keir-squirms-over-beergate-scrutiny-we-were-working/

    “We were on the road, at the end of the day, we were in the office preparing. Now, that evening, from memory, we were doing an online event for members… at some point, this was in the evening, everyone is hungry. A takeaway was ordered… in Durham all restaurants and pubs were closed.”

    On the 30 April 2021, I was doing my bit for my local by having a drink in the garden.

    Oh, and on 1 May 2021, we had lunch outside at a restaurant in Weybridge.

    What annoys me is that Starmer et al clearly weren't going the extra mile to stop the spread of COVID. They have consistently been on the safety-first side of the COVID argument, so it's annoying to see that when they thought no one was watching, they weren't that bothered about it.

    I’ve been consistent in saying that this whole thing is a silly and overblown story from years ago - but Starmer doesn’t think so, he led with six questions about ‘parties’ for four weeks running at PMQs, and has been vocal in suggesting the PM should resign over forgetting about his birthday cake.

    If you’re going to take that approach to personal morality, you’d better make damn sure that you’re whiter than white yourself.

    The ‘narrative’ is now that they’re all as bad as each other on this issue.
    Yeah, but the public ain't buying it!

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1521532533464354817?t=NI2GN5Em2aCOzRnFp22qFw&s=19

    #Beergate stories haven't changed the public perception that Keir Starmer has generally abided by COVID rules

    Generally did: 42% (+2 from Jan)
    Generally didn't: 28% (-)

    Boris Johnson, meanwhile, is still seen as a rulebreaker

    Generally did: 21% (+4)
    Generally didn't: 70% (-3) https://t.co/fwy7GhSwou
This discussion has been closed.