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Short Odds, Strong Nerves – Local Election Betting 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    I can't see the Tories losing Hillingdon, which includes ultra safe Ruislip Northwood and voted Leave unlike Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster.

    Kingston upon Thames voted for Cameron but hates Boris and Brexit so likely more LD gains there
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,028
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header.

    Will the svelte new pescatarian Ed Davey help win Green votes?

    And some people learn very young. I've not met *that* many PBers, but most of us look like that Little 'un.




    He looks very disapproving!

    (I’ve been cataloguing old baby photos and some of the expressions are superb)
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    It has certainly made doctors pay tricky.

    Pay them more, they can retire earlier.
    Pay them less, they think sod this, and retire earlier.

    Not sure of the short term solution, or if there even is one.
    Make working lives better? Not everything is about money. Same with teachers.

    Getting rid of the hassle factor is a major step to staff retention.

    Absolutely but a key part of making working life better for doctors is surely having enough of them? So them retiring faster than normal whether we keep wages level, up or down is not helpful at all.

    Longer term, of course we can train more doctors.
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 485
    dixiedean said:

    PJH said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Does anyone have any strong opinions on Gosport?

    Paul Krishnamurty and one of the other guys on the star sports “polling station” video thought NOC looked like value.

    The Tories only need to win 7 of the 8 they are defending. Only one got below 60% of the vote in 2018.
    Superficially, it looks possible. At ward level, it is huge Tory majorities in the wards they win. Over 50% of the borough vote in 2018 and 2022.
    Having grown up there, and still having politically-connected rellies there...

    Gosport is all up this time, because of new boundaries.

    The problem for the Conservatives is that they win their safe wards (basically the seaside ones) by massive majorities on huge turnouts. The trouble is that they sometimes/often struggle in the rest of the borough, which looks like a bit of the north that broke off and got stuck back in the wrong place.

    The problem from a betting point of view is that the results in Gosport pretty much depend on one specific Lib Dem activist, the mood he is in and whether he can pull the rest of the party with him. On his day, he can sweep the board, but he can also annoy the rest of his party enough to almost destroy it. That's been true since the 1980's, and he's still at it. I suspect he will be enjoying the government's current tribulations, but I'm too many miles away to know.

    NOC is possible, but tricky. Basically, it requires a decent showing by Labour, and they have had a torrid time over the last few years.

    In short, search me guv.

    (The problem with local elections- unless the national tide is an absolute tsunami, the countercurrents at ward level can make odd things happen in specific places. To take another example, Havering ought to stay NOC, though perhaps Residents-led minority rather than Conservative-led minority. But there are enough wards where the result is something of a lottery that a Conservative majority or a Residents majority aren't impossible.)
    Re Havering, I think the same, but then the other day I passed the green in Havering-atte-Bower where there is a scarecrow exhibition/competition going on, and in the stocks is... Boris. And this is the most Tory part of a safe Tory ward.
    To be fair.
    Which other famous person would immediately spring to mind when planning to enter a scarecrow competition?
    The Duke of York? But I get your point. But it does suggest a certain public consensus as in another year it might not have been anyone at all in the stocks as most scarecrows are in people's gardens not public spaces.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282
    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Good job you do not live here in Wales

    Our bins are collected ONCE a month
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Same here in Havering. My leaflet talks about the 'Labour supporting Residents Association' conveniently forgetting that the minority Tory council is sustained in place by the Residents Association.
    Residents' councillors will generally back the most NIMBY administration possible
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    I'm not convinced about Putin's call-up plans. Russia's problem is equipment; it does not not a lack untrained recruits. I suppose he could move newbies into the occupied regions to free up battle-hardened troops. One perverse effect of sanctions is increased unemployment so perhaps some will take Putin's shilling.
    The Russian Army is driving around mostly empty armoured personnel carriers because it has a severe manpower shortage.
    It's one way to use up all the NLAWs in theatre.....
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    Carnyx said:

    Personal Statement - I recently and mistakenly implied, that JackW is a Reformed Jacobean. When of course we all know he is a Reclaimed Jacobin.

    I apologize profusely, unreservedly, repeatedly for any and all discomfort I have caused to JackW personally, and for the shame I have brought upon PB.

    Surely a Returned Jacobite?
    Please stop calling my Surely!

    Resurrected Jacobite? In electoral pact with Restyled Whigs
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    "Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. Yhe has bets on the Tories"

    That's a pronoun I've not encountered before.

    I identify as a fool who wrote quickly this last night and didn't proof read it properly.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    Isn't that just an argument to make BTL relatively less attractive rather than give 45% rater earners such as ourselves a tax cut? I still like the idea of a 100% CGT rate and 100% income tax rate on BTL profit and capital gain for existing property but 30 year non-transferable nil rate bands for new builds. Take the investment aspect out of BTL but heavily incentivise building of new property.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,028

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    That’s a logical analysis.

    But without reliable intelligence it’s a heck of a bet.

    Are you feeling lucky, punk?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,598

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    It has certainly made doctors pay tricky.

    Pay them more, they can retire earlier.
    Pay them less, they think sod this, and retire earlier.

    Not sure of the short term solution, or if there even is one.
    Make working lives better? Not everything is about money. Same with teachers.

    Getting rid of the hassle factor is a major step to staff retention.

    Absolutely but a key part of making working life better for doctors is surely having enough of them? So them retiring faster than normal whether we keep wages level, up or down is not helpful at all.

    Longer term, of course we can train more doctors.
    Except that Specialist Training has been trashed over the last few years...
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    In American/British designs (most known) the Tritium is in fairly accessible canisters, which are regularly removed for replacement, when the warhead is serviced.

    The actual removal of the He3 from Tritium decay is fairly simple.

    Tritium is also a extremely expensive. $30K a gram.

    https://nuke.fas.org/cochran/nuc_88101901a_85.pdf

    "Each weapon has on average about 4 to 5 grams, with neutron bombs requiring a much larger quantity,. perhaps as much as 25 grams."

    So, assuming that Russian multi-stage design resembles US design,

    $100K+ of Tritium to steal from each warhead.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    Dura_Ace said:

    Russia's military hardware decrepit?

    It's like every other military. Some of the gear is mint, some of it is haggard old shit, some of it only exists on paper, etc. Only the proportions vary from country to country.
    Umm.... I think you'll find Nato countries have generally got far superior kit though I accept we haven't always equipped our soldiers well enough.

    If you compare what the Americans were doing 30 YEARS AGO in Desert Storm to where Russia is now there is no comparison.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,028
    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    My council collects rubbish twice a week, with a separate recycling collection once a week.

    So your paltry approach is absolutely improveable
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Good job you do not live here in Wales

    Our bins are collected ONCE a month
    Once a month? That's a rubbish service.
    They do collect our recycling and food waste weekly, and our garden waste fortnightly though that is a paid service
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    If you think about why the government gives relief on pension contributions at all, it is to reduce the number of retired individuals who are a financial cost on the state and future workers. That justification is fine for the first £1m or so of pension savings, but would not cover the second and further millions of pension savings.

    Why should you not pay tax on your earnings?

    No doubt you will say it is being taxed twice, but only if you put it into a pension wrapper, there is nothing stopping you saving further for retirement in a general investment account, not to mention ISAs (another £0.4-0.8m tax sheltered account over a well paid career) and VCTs, EIS, SEIS.

  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,028

    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    Same here in Havering. My leaflet talks about the 'Labour supporting Residents Association' conveniently forgetting that the minority Tory council is sustained in place by the Residents Association.
    Ah, but which Residents' Association? The official (fairly normal) one, the renegade but sort of in-line Independent Residents' Association (like a RA, but very right wing indeed), or the treacherous Residents' Association (who have backed the Conservative administration for the last few years).

    There are quite a lot of wards where RA-on-RA action might let Conservatives come through the middle.

    Havering politics is utterly bonkers.
    Their council is quite forward looking in certain areas
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,812

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    The other factor is they will not be paying NI, and income tax is of course focussed on the higher part of the income.

    If one has saved for a reasonable occupational and/or private pension and/or ISAs and has a decent income available, then the impact of NI and income tax disporportionately hit the salary and reduce it to something much closer to the net pension etc income than one might think from the ratios of gross income in work vs retirement. I'm sure the news of the increase in the tax known as "NI" will be making this much worse.

    Its the same old quandry, the more taxes are increased the more people do to avoid paying them
    Time to tax land, then. You can't move that offshore.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    Isn't that just an argument to make BTL relatively less attractive rather than give 45% rater earners such as ourselves a tax cut? I still like the idea of a 100% CGT rate and 100% income tax rate on BTL profit and capital gain for existing property but 30 year non-transferable nil rate bands for new builds. Take the investment aspect out of BTL but heavily incentivise building of new property.
    That only makes sense if you think all property except new builds should be owner occupied. Does that make sense in somewhere like London, where you have always had a decent proportion of people who want to rent and limited space for building new property? What will they do when there is no rental property available? They won't all be able to afford to buy a flat, even if they wanted to. Or are you advocating for the state to become a much bigger landlord again?
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    It has certainly made doctors pay tricky.

    Pay them more, they can retire earlier.
    Pay them less, they think sod this, and retire earlier.

    Not sure of the short term solution, or if there even is one.
    Make working lives better? Not everything is about money. Same with teachers.

    Getting rid of the hassle factor is a major step to staff retention.

    The hassle factor in many sectors has increased over the past 10 years with bizarre red tape, H & S requirements, exhaustive tendering processes etc. In my area of work staff retention is hard as people can't be bothered anymore and want to do something with less nonsense and all the stress that goes with that.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    Isn't that just an argument to make BTL relatively less attractive rather than give 45% rater earners such as ourselves a tax cut? I still like the idea of a 100% CGT rate and 100% income tax rate on BTL profit and capital gain for existing property but 30 year non-transferable nil rate bands for new builds. Take the investment aspect out of BTL but heavily incentivise building of new property.
    That only makes sense if you think all property except new builds should be owner occupied. Does that make sense in somewhere like London, where you have always had a decent proportion of people who want to rent and limited space for building new property? What will they do when there is no rental property available? They won't all be able to afford to buy a flat, even if they wanted to. Or are you advocating for the state to become a much bigger landlord again?
    I'm advocating that the state and housing associations become significantly bigger landlords.
  • Options
    Is there a list of which councils are counting over night and estimated timing of results?
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,790
    dixiedean said:

    Expect Friday to be a big political day.
    Still not sure the media, and political establishment in general, are fully aware of quite what a story is brewing in NI. It may actually impinge on our consciousness for a short time.

    Last nights NI debate was a car crash for the DUP Leader . Came last and if people in NI had any sense they’d ensure that the DUP don’t even make second place . Essentially he told viewers fxck the cost of living crisis we care more about trying to get the NI protocol removed and will refuse to take part in the assembly until that happens .
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    Sandpit said:

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    What we need now, is for Lavrov to upset the Saudis, as the Russians did a couple of years ago, and watch OPEC up production to drive the price (and Russia’s main source of foreign currency) down. This would be good for everyone except Russia.

    It’s already been said that Russian reserves are close to full, at which point they will need to start shutting production down or burn it off, if they can’t sell it. They also rely heavily on Western equipment and services for their O&G industry, which will quickly become unserviceable due to sanctions.
    Surely some of the Arab states such as Egypt must be horrified by the blockade on Odessa. Rising food prices in the Arab world would be very dangerous for the Saudis. I can't understand why it's in their interests for Putin to continue the war.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,202

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    I'm not convinced about Putin's call-up plans. Russia's problem is equipment; it does not not a lack untrained recruits. I suppose he could move newbies into the occupied regions to free up battle-hardened troops. One perverse effect of sanctions is increased unemployment so perhaps some will take Putin's shilling.
    The Russian Army is driving around mostly empty armoured personnel carriers because it has a severe manpower shortage.
    Are they down to conscripting their bots? IF not as cannon fodder, maybe as fire wardens?
    I think the issue is that Russian military doctrine for a major war involves national mobilisation and using conscripts to provide the numbers for their frontline units.

    They've been fighting a major war without the mobilisation, which means they lack infantry to make combined arms operations work properly, and so have suffered massive losses in equipment and trained personnel.

    It's possible that they've suffered so many losses that they'd now struggle to mobilise lots of conscripts, because they won't have the officers, specialists or equipment to go alongside large numbers.

    It's been a monumental blunder, but it leaves a lot of room for them to improve if they were to stop sabotaging their own effort.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    If you think about why the government gives relief on pension contributions at all, it is to reduce the number of retired individuals who are a financial cost on the state and future workers. That justification is fine for the first £1m or so of pension savings, but would not cover the second and further millions of pension savings.

    Why should you not pay tax on your earnings?

    No doubt you will say it is being taxed twice, but only if you put it into a pension wrapper, there is nothing stopping you saving further for retirement in a general investment account, not to mention ISAs (another £0.4-0.8m tax sheltered account over a well paid career) and VCTs, EIS, SEIS.

    I quite like the simplicity of a pension. You put the money away and don't have to think about it. Also to me it makes sense that you are taxed when you receive the income, which, if you put it into a pension, is in retirement. So pension tax relief makes a lot of sense - although it can't be infinite so a lifetime limit makes sense but I don't see why high earners shouldn't be able to save for retirement just like everyone else. (And I don't really believe that governments won't start taxing income from ISA savings in the future).
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,808

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    In American/British designs (most known) the Tritium is in fairly accessible canisters, which are regularly removed for replacement, when the warhead is serviced.

    The actual removal of the He3 from Tritium decay is fairly simple.

    Tritium is also a extremely expensive. $30K a gram.

    https://nuke.fas.org/cochran/nuc_88101901a_85.pdf

    "Each weapon has on average about 4 to 5 grams, with neutron bombs requiring a much larger quantity,. perhaps as much as 25 grams."

    So, assuming that Russian multi-stage design resembles US design,

    $100K+ of Tritium to steal from each warhead.
    It would be cold, cold irony if Russia launched 6000 missiles that all went fizz and it was the retaliatory strike alone that precipitated the nuclear winter.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 1,936

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    Round here we get a rubbish collection every week that alternates between recycling & general waste. Food waste is collected every week. Generally it seems to work fine - the recyclable / non-recyclable waste split means that bins get to be full roughly when collection happens (and you can get larger bins for larger households).
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    Isn't that just an argument to make BTL relatively less attractive rather than give 45% rater earners such as ourselves a tax cut? I still like the idea of a 100% CGT rate and 100% income tax rate on BTL profit and capital gain for existing property but 30 year non-transferable nil rate bands for new builds. Take the investment aspect out of BTL but heavily incentivise building of new property.
    That only makes sense if you think all property except new builds should be owner occupied. Does that make sense in somewhere like London, where you have always had a decent proportion of people who want to rent and limited space for building new property? What will they do when there is no rental property available? They won't all be able to afford to buy a flat, even if they wanted to. Or are you advocating for the state to become a much bigger landlord again?
    I'm advocating that the state and housing associations become significantly bigger landlords.
    OK then your proposal makes sense. I am planning to buy a BTL property but with the aim of renting it to refugees at below market rents so your 100% tax won't yield much revenue from us unfortunately.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    Where I live it's rubbish fortnightly, recycling fortnightly, food waste weekly, garden waste bin (paid for) fortnightly, with larger wheelie bins available if you have a reason such as a large family.

    That done, the real issue is access to the local recycling depots for anything out of gauge - closing one would be very unpopular indeed. The council will uplift but at a cost.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,028
    Pro_Rata said:

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    In American/British designs (most known) the Tritium is in fairly accessible canisters, which are regularly removed for replacement, when the warhead is serviced.

    The actual removal of the He3 from Tritium decay is fairly simple.

    Tritium is also a extremely expensive. $30K a gram.

    https://nuke.fas.org/cochran/nuc_88101901a_85.pdf

    "Each weapon has on average about 4 to 5 grams, with neutron bombs requiring a much larger quantity,. perhaps as much as 25 grams."

    So, assuming that Russian multi-stage design resembles US design,

    $100K+ of Tritium to steal from each warhead.
    It would be cold, cold irony if Russia launched 6000 missiles that all went fizz and it was the retaliatory strike alone that precipitated the nuclear winter.
    Hot then cold irony.

    Not cold cold irony…
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2022
    Phil said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    Round here we get a rubbish collection every week that alternates between recycling & general waste. Food waste is collected every week. Generally it seems to work fine - the recyclable / non-recyclable waste split means that bins get to be full roughly when collection happens (and you can get larger bins for larger households).

    In Gwynedd, recycling is every week, but rubbish is every 3 weeks.

    This is typical for Wales.

    In my opinion, it seems to have led to increased fly-tipping in rural Wales, though that is just an impression and I have no statistics to back it up.

    But -- what seems extraordinary -- is London seems to have rubbish bin collections *every week* (happy to be corrected, but it does seem to be the case in Camden from the Council webpage).
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    edited May 2022
    nico679 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Expect Friday to be a big political day.
    Still not sure the media, and political establishment in general, are fully aware of quite what a story is brewing in NI. It may actually impinge on our consciousness for a short time.

    Last nights NI debate was a car crash for the DUP Leader . Came last and if people in NI had any sense they’d ensure that the DUP don’t even make second place . Essentially he told viewers fxck the cost of living crisis we care more about trying to get the NI protocol removed and will refuse to take part in the assembly until that happens .
    Yes. And the Protocol remains popular too.
    Not sure a situation where a government can't be formed because the Party who came third refuses (on an issue the vast majority are content with) is going to be tenable for long.
    IF it happens of course.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    If you think about why the government gives relief on pension contributions at all, it is to reduce the number of retired individuals who are a financial cost on the state and future workers. That justification is fine for the first £1m or so of pension savings, but would not cover the second and further millions of pension savings.

    Why should you not pay tax on your earnings?

    No doubt you will say it is being taxed twice, but only if you put it into a pension wrapper, there is nothing stopping you saving further for retirement in a general investment account, not to mention ISAs (another £0.4-0.8m tax sheltered account over a well paid career) and VCTs, EIS, SEIS.

    I quite like the simplicity of a pension. You put the money away and don't have to think about it. Also to me it makes sense that you are taxed when you receive the income, which, if you put it into a pension, is in retirement. So pension tax relief makes a lot of sense - although it can't be infinite so a lifetime limit makes sense but I don't see why high earners shouldn't be able to save for retirement just like everyone else. (And I don't really believe that governments won't start taxing income from ISA savings in the future).
    I agree with the simplicity argument. If you invest in a general investment account, the numbers should feed through automatically into your self assessment account. If that was the case then it would be just as simple, just taxed differently.

    High earners can of course save for retirement and do so very effectively, getting beneficial tax rates on their first million plus ISAs.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    Pro_Rata said:

    From a thread yesterday.

    ydoethur said:

    There were a large number of Soviet nukes that Ukraine inherited by virtue of them being based in their territory.

    Under the Budapest Accords Ukraine gave these up in return for security guarantees from Russia, various western countries etc

    As of course did Kazakhstan.

    Am I right in thinking the only country to have given up an independent nuclear weapon voluntarily is South Africa?
    No - Ukraine gave them up per the above

    Were they independent nuclear weapons though?
    No - they didn’t have the maintenance or production facilities.

    Given the decay rate of tritium, for a start, the helium contamination problem would have made the weapons (assuming all h bombs) duds in short order. A year or 2. Pulling the tritium capsules (if possible) would turn them (maybe) into very low yield a bombs, but that would require knowledge of the design to know if that would work

    If nuclear weaponry requires such complicated maintenance and production, which I presume is expensive in order to remain functional then I have to wonder given the largely decrepit state of the rest of Russia's military hardware whether their nuclear weapons have actually been maintained or not?

    Given that this is weaponry that's never really used or displayed, it seems a prime target for a bit of embezzlement strategic redeployment of funds with a box ticked saying that its been maintained while funnelling the funds to more pressing concerns. Like Villas or nice cars.

    If the bulk of Russia's hardware is Potemkin, I wonder whether the tritium has already decayed and their nuclear arsenal is Potemkin too.
    In American/British designs (most known) the Tritium is in fairly accessible canisters, which are regularly removed for replacement, when the warhead is serviced.

    The actual removal of the He3 from Tritium decay is fairly simple.

    Tritium is also a extremely expensive. $30K a gram.

    https://nuke.fas.org/cochran/nuc_88101901a_85.pdf

    "Each weapon has on average about 4 to 5 grams, with neutron bombs requiring a much larger quantity,. perhaps as much as 25 grams."

    So, assuming that Russian multi-stage design resembles US design,

    $100K+ of Tritium to steal from each warhead.
    It would be cold, cold irony if Russia launched 6000 missiles that all went fizz and it was the retaliatory strike alone that precipitated the nuclear winter.
    And cold, cold comfort for us too.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    In Lewisham the landfill/incinerator rubbish is collected fortnightly and food waste and recycling is collected weekly. Garden waste is weekly (paid for separately) and they will collect large items at a cost and a wait. Anything metal left out will disappear pretty quickly, collected by private operators.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,898
    Our local Tory council are introducing this bin schedule

    1. Weekly food waste collection using food caddies (a small caddy for inside your property and a larger caddy to use outside and for collection).

    2. Fortnightly dry recycling collection

    3. Three-weekly refuse collection (using your existing grey wheeled bin).

    +. Fortnightly chargeable garden waste collection .

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282
    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Liz Truss
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,387
    .
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 898

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    In my daughter's village in Andalusia, Spain rubbish is collected daily. From large communal bins sorted into different categories.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Nadine Dorries.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,028

    Phil said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    Round here we get a rubbish collection every week that alternates between recycling & general waste. Food waste is collected every week. Generally it seems to work fine - the recyclable / non-recyclable waste split means that bins get to be full roughly when collection happens (and you can get larger bins for larger households).

    In Gwynedd, recycling is every week, but rubbish is every 3 weeks.

    This is typical for Wales.

    In my opinion, it seems to have led to increased fly-tipping in rural Wales, though that is just an impression and I have no statistics to back it up.

    But -- what seems extraordinary -- is London seems to have rubbish bin collections *every week* (happy to be corrected, but it does seem to be the case in Camden from the Council webpage).
    They have lots of foxes in Camden with limited other food sources vs rubbish bins
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    If you think about why the government gives relief on pension contributions at all, it is to reduce the number of retired individuals who are a financial cost on the state and future workers. That justification is fine for the first £1m or so of pension savings, but would not cover the second and further millions of pension savings.

    Why should you not pay tax on your earnings?

    No doubt you will say it is being taxed twice, but only if you put it into a pension wrapper, there is nothing stopping you saving further for retirement in a general investment account, not to mention ISAs (another £0.4-0.8m tax sheltered account over a well paid career) and VCTs, EIS, SEIS.

    I quite like the simplicity of a pension. You put the money away and don't have to think about it. Also to me it makes sense that you are taxed when you receive the income, which, if you put it into a pension, is in retirement. So pension tax relief makes a lot of sense - although it can't be infinite so a lifetime limit makes sense but I don't see why high earners shouldn't be able to save for retirement just like everyone else. (And I don't really believe that governments won't start taxing income from ISA savings in the future).
    I agree with the simplicity argument. If you invest in a general investment account, the numbers should feed through automatically into your self assessment account. If that was the case then it would be just as simple, just taxed differently.

    High earners can of course save for retirement and do so very effectively, getting beneficial tax rates on their first million plus ISAs.
    Not really with pensions though, you can only pay in £4k/year before you lose all tax relief. So you'd need to live for 250 years to benefit from the tax relief on your first £1mn.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    The WhatsApp group for Fortune Green is full of complaints about Camden not collecting the bins from the local shops and restaurants, the resulting fly-tipping and rubbish strewn around the streets and how complaints to Camden result in no action. The Lib Dems are making a big thing of it. The impression is that matters have got worse. So "unimprovable" is overstating it, I think.

    As for Copeland, you'd hardly know there was an election. The local Tory (I assume) came round at the very start with a leaflet about all the local stuff he was doing. The Lib Dems have done no canvassing at all - not even a leaflet. And eventually the Labour candidate left a leaflet with my milk bottles saying that the lovely lady running the local and very good theatre in Millom supported her.

    That's it. People are much more exercised about the proposals for an Iron Line locally with the celebrated Dutch garden designer, Piet Oudolf, involved and the next Spring Fair at Holker Hall.
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    When I lived in Greenwich, IIRC the blocks of flats get their industrial sized bins collected at least once a week (twice for the bigger blocks) but the houses (sometimes in the same street) only every two weeks.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,387

    Is there a list of which councils are counting over night and estimated timing of results?

    Seek and you shall find, IIRC, about a third are counting overnight.

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282

    Phil said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    Round here we get a rubbish collection every week that alternates between recycling & general waste. Food waste is collected every week. Generally it seems to work fine - the recyclable / non-recyclable waste split means that bins get to be full roughly when collection happens (and you can get larger bins for larger households).

    In Gwynedd, recycling is every week, but rubbish is every 3 weeks.

    This is typical for Wales.

    In my opinion, it seems to have led to increased fly-tipping in rural Wales, though that is just an impression and I have no statistics to back it up.

    But -- what seems extraordinary -- is London seems to have rubbish bin collections *every week* (happy to be corrected, but it does seem to be the case in Camden from the Council webpage).
    Fly tipping in Wales is largely due to recycling depots charging for household building waste
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 898
    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Every minister sacked is another letter to the '22!
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,969
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Expect Friday to be a big political day.
    Still not sure the media, and political establishment in general, are fully aware of quite what a story is brewing in NI. It may actually impinge on our consciousness for a short time.

    Last nights NI debate was a car crash for the DUP Leader . Came last and if people in NI had any sense they’d ensure that the DUP don’t even make second place . Essentially he told viewers fxck the cost of living crisis we care more about trying to get the NI protocol removed and will refuse to take part in the assembly until that happens .
    Yes. And the Protocol remains popular too.
    Not sure a situation where a government can't be formed because the Party who came third refuses (on an issue the vast majority are content with) is going to be tenable for long.
    IF it happens of course.
    It will be interesting to see what happens if the Alliance does end up in second place.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,028

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    So money has nothing to do with it?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    Does everyone else have food waste bins?
    We don't. Not even plastic or glass. All of that goes straight to landfill.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,387
    Liverpool will not win the tetralogy but this is a nice stat.

    Liverpool are the first English team to reach 10 European Cup / Champions League finals:

    10 - Liverpool
    9
    8
    7
    6
    5 - Man Utd
    4
    3 - Chelsea
    2 - Nottingham Forest
    1 - Arsenal, Aston Villa, Leeds United, Man City, Tottenham


    https://twitter.com/WinnerpoolLFC/status/1521622071209603072
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Phil said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    Round here we get a rubbish collection every week that alternates between recycling & general waste. Food waste is collected every week. Generally it seems to work fine - the recyclable / non-recyclable waste split means that bins get to be full roughly when collection happens (and you can get larger bins for larger households).

    In Gwynedd, recycling is every week, but rubbish is every 3 weeks.

    This is typical for Wales.

    In my opinion, it seems to have led to increased fly-tipping in rural Wales, though that is just an impression and I have no statistics to back it up.

    But -- what seems extraordinary -- is London seems to have rubbish bin collections *every week* (happy to be corrected, but it does seem to be the case in Camden from the Council webpage).
    I find it quite extraordinary that any council is still clinging on to what I consider a proper waste collection service - everything, every week. Any less is totally inadequate.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,202

    Sandpit said:

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    What we need now, is for Lavrov to upset the Saudis, as the Russians did a couple of years ago, and watch OPEC up production to drive the price (and Russia’s main source of foreign currency) down. This would be good for everyone except Russia.

    It’s already been said that Russian reserves are close to full, at which point they will need to start shutting production down or burn it off, if they can’t sell it. They also rely heavily on Western equipment and services for their O&G industry, which will quickly become unserviceable due to sanctions.
    Surely some of the Arab states such as Egypt must be horrified by the blockade on Odessa. Rising food prices in the Arab world would be very dangerous for the Saudis. I can't understand why it's in their interests for Putin to continue the war.
    Russia has been reported to have stolen enough grain across the South of Ukraine that warnings of famine in the area are starting to be made.

    Perhaps Arab countries are thinking that Russia might be their best hope for future grain supplies?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,387

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    So money has nothing to do with it?
    Nope, he's wealthy as it is, can do a stint as Chancellor for a few years, and still pick up where he left off when he finishes in Number 11 again.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    Probably too busy sleeping off a life on benefits.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,885

    Sandpit said:

    This EU oil embargo is far too slow if it only takes effect at the end of the year. Putin could well resort to national mobilisation if things don't improve for him on the battlefield. We haven't managed to induce the complete financial collapse of Russia as some anticipated. People are being offered well above the average salary to go and fight in Ukraine. We need to make it unaffordable.

    What we need now, is for Lavrov to upset the Saudis, as the Russians did a couple of years ago, and watch OPEC up production to drive the price (and Russia’s main source of foreign currency) down. This would be good for everyone except Russia.

    It’s already been said that Russian reserves are close to full, at which point they will need to start shutting production down or burn it off, if they can’t sell it. They also rely heavily on Western equipment and services for their O&G industry, which will quickly become unserviceable due to sanctions.
    Surely some of the Arab states such as Egypt must be horrified by the blockade on Odessa. Rising food prices in the Arab world would be very dangerous for the Saudis. I can't understand why it's in their interests for Putin to continue the war.
    Indeed. The Middle East isn’t close to being self-sufficient in food, and while there’s not yet a problem of rising prices, it has the potential to become one in the poorer parts of the region, if the war continues into the summer.

    The one thing that is being noticed here, in middle-class expat territory, is the price of petrol. Now around a dollar a litre, close to double where it has been in recent years. We are not known for our love of small, fuel-efficient cars.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Does everyone else have food waste bins?
    We don't. Not even plastic or glass. All of that goes straight to landfill.

    Definitely a post to dis-like, alas. Or rather, it needs a 'commiserate' button.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    edited May 2022

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Liz Truss
    Could Boris move the foreign sec with Ukraine still looming large?

    How about Nadine for CotE? :D
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,139
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    The WhatsApp group for Fortune Green is full of complaints about Camden not collecting the bins from the local shops and restaurants, the resulting fly-tipping and rubbish strewn around the streets and how complaints to Camden result in no action. The Lib Dems are making a big thing of it. The impression is that matters have got worse. So "unimprovable" is overstating it, I think.

    As for Copeland, you'd hardly know there was an election. The local Tory (I assume) came round at the very start with a leaflet about all the local stuff he was doing. The Lib Dems have done no canvassing at all - not even a leaflet. And eventually the Labour candidate left a leaflet with my milk bottles saying that the lovely lady running the local and very good theatre in Millom supported her.

    That's it. People are much more exercised about the proposals for an Iron Line locally with the celebrated Dutch garden designer, Piet Oudolf, involved and the next Spring Fair at Holker Hall.
    I haven't seen any leaflets in Cambridge at all, since the campaign started. We usually get something from the LDs at least. I submitted my postal vote a couple of weeks ago, mind, so it would've been pointless!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    That would be a father again via his former adviser having divorced his wife.

    On some things at least he might still fit in well with Boris!
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104
    HYUFD said:

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    That would be a father again via his former adviser having divorced his wife.

    On some things at least he might still fit in well with Boris!
    The party of family values... They love families so much they have more than one of them.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Liz Truss
    That works. She gets the blame for the next round of cost of living crisis, government debt crisis and so on. Leaving Johnson with one less person who could replace him.

    Hunt would be very well advised to turn down any offer to be anywhere near this government.

  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104
    Crossrail opening in 20 days. 🤞
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT re this being a weird cost of living crisis, Malmesbury said

    "Once again, COVID accelerated a process - in this case early retirement/slowing down

    Quite a few people "retired" early, by replacing their full time jobs with part time plus pension."

    ----

    This is the unsurprising result of an economy where govt distorts it to such an extent that an average house earns more per year than an average wage.

    If you have housing assets why bother working? And in large parts of the country, even if you are working, you will feel poor as cannot afford housing locally.

    Hence the weirdness to the cost of living crisis, it is far more divided than previous ones, with haves and have nots largely decided by age rather than class or education.

    From my chats with employers in the NE, it isn't the loss of EU or overseas workers, there weren't that many, but the loss of experienced staff to retirement that is hurting them.
    They are filling the jobs. But not with decades of knowledge. And over promoting earlier than they'd like to.
    One thing which might encourage people in their 50s and upwards to retire early or reduce their hours is that they've made all the NI contributions they need to receive the maximum state pension.

    By going part time you proportionally reduce your hours worked much more than you reduce your earnings.

    And this sort of income and pension planning knowledge is now much easier to access than it was in pre internet days.
    Among the middle classes, there is the same phenomenon with regards to the lifetime rules for private pensions. This is affecting the doctors and lawyers, who after years of stuffing five figures into their pension every year for the tax relief, now see what looks like a large pay cut as they’re exposed to the 40% rate in full, and after the £100k personal allowance withdrawal. That last one is a huge big fiscal drag by the way, there will be a million or two caught by it in the next few years.

    I’d love to see some retirement statistics, there’s definitely anecdotal evidence that more people than usual retired during the pandemic.
    World's smallest violin time, but I am sure that the really mean rules on pension tax relief are contributing to this. Eg in my case, I can only put IIRC £4k into my pension with tax relief. Everything after that is basically taxed at 45% when it goes in and at least 20% when it comes out (not to mention another 20% when you buy anything except food), ie it's not worth it. Now if I can engineer a few years in some kind of consultancy or part time role down the road and bring my earnings down then I can benefit from the tax relief for £40k per year and get my pension pot up to something respectable. That means a lot less tax revenue and a smaller economy of course. By being too greedy on pension tax relief for high earners I think the tax man is shooting himself in the foot. Also, because I can't benefit from pension tax relief, stuff like BTL is made relatively more attractive.
    If you think about why the government gives relief on pension contributions at all, it is to reduce the number of retired individuals who are a financial cost on the state and future workers. That justification is fine for the first £1m or so of pension savings, but would not cover the second and further millions of pension savings.

    Why should you not pay tax on your earnings?

    No doubt you will say it is being taxed twice, but only if you put it into a pension wrapper, there is nothing stopping you saving further for retirement in a general investment account, not to mention ISAs (another £0.4-0.8m tax sheltered account over a well paid career) and VCTs, EIS, SEIS.

    I quite like the simplicity of a pension. You put the money away and don't have to think about it. Also to me it makes sense that you are taxed when you receive the income, which, if you put it into a pension, is in retirement. So pension tax relief makes a lot of sense - although it can't be infinite so a lifetime limit makes sense but I don't see why high earners shouldn't be able to save for retirement just like everyone else. (And I don't really believe that governments won't start taxing income from ISA savings in the future).
    I agree with the simplicity argument. If you invest in a general investment account, the numbers should feed through automatically into your self assessment account. If that was the case then it would be just as simple, just taxed differently.

    High earners can of course save for retirement and do so very effectively, getting beneficial tax rates on their first million plus ISAs.
    Not really with pensions though, you can only pay in £4k/year before you lose all tax relief. So you'd need to live for 250 years to benefit from the tax relief on your first £1mn.
    That is only for those earning over £312k per year, the highest 0.1% or so of earners. Definitely a case of worlds smallest violin.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    I could manage with traditional bins being collected once/month. Our recycling bin on the other hand is normally overflowing after 2 weeks. All the soft plastics which are normally marked as not recyclable we now take to the Coop who will recycle it. Means we end up with minimal waste going in the "normal" bin.

    My preferred collection routine would be:
    - Ordinary bins: Every 4 weeks (currently every 2)
    - Recycle bins: Every week (currently every 2)
    - Food waste bins: Every 2 weeks (currently every 2)

    I think councils need to work on recycling soft plastics. A lot of what goes into ordinary bins could be recycled.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited May 2022

    HYUFD said:

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    That would be a father again via his former adviser having divorced his wife.

    On some things at least he might still fit in well with Boris!
    The party of family values... They love families so much they have more than one of them.
    Or if Rees Mogg have 6 children with his wife. Jacob takes the traditional Roman Catholic view and does not use contraception
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340
    If Sunak went, surely he’d almost have to pick Gove?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,885
    That’s a little, err, worrying. It sounds awfully like they’re trying to find groups of trained mercenary soldiers, as they did with the Chechens.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,808
    dixiedean said:

    Does everyone else have food waste bins?
    We don't. Not even plastic or glass. All of that goes straight to landfill.

    No, though rumours of a service in the pipeline, they started taking plastic trays in recycling a month or so back, as opposed to just plastic bottles.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    That would be a father again via his former adviser having divorced his wife.

    On some things at least he might still fit in well with Boris!
    The party of family values... They love families so much they have more than one of them.
    Or if Rees Mogg have 7 children with his wife. Jacob takes the traditional Roman Catholic view and does not use contraception
    His face is probably sufficient.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    Liverpool will not win the tetralogy but this is a nice stat.

    Liverpool are the first English team to reach 10 European Cup / Champions League finals:

    10 - Liverpool
    9
    8
    7
    6
    5 - Man Utd
    4
    3 - Chelsea
    2 - Nottingham Forest
    1 - Arsenal, Aston Villa, Leeds United, Man City, Tottenham


    https://twitter.com/WinnerpoolLFC/status/1521622071209603072

    I doubt Forests 66% success rate will ever be beaten.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    Icarus said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    In my daughter's village in Andalusia, Spain rubbish is collected daily. From large communal bins sorted into different categories.
    Was the same in Taipei. The bin lorry played a tune like an ice cream van does here. Which was a signal to head downstairs and chuck it in the back yourself as it went by. This was an art. You had to trot, aim and fire. Trying not to be run over. Frailer folk took their place early.
    They also had older blokes on cycle rickshaws who collected recycling by category.
    So, the cardboard, paper, food etc. people would follow like a swarm.
    As dozens of scooters weaved in and out to overtake. Taxis honked, and everyone yelled insults in Taiwanese.
    Happy days.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Sandpit said:

    That’s a little, err, worrying. It sounds awfully like they’re trying to find groups of trained mercenary soldiers, as they did with the Chechens.
    On the other hand, shows their desperate situation. Making their relationship with Israel even worse.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,202
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    That would be a father again via his former adviser having divorced his wife.

    On some things at least he might still fit in well with Boris!
    The party of family values... They love families so much they have more than one of them.
    Or if Rees Mogg have 6 children with his wife. Jacob takes the traditional Roman Catholic view and does not use contraception
    If capable AI existed vanilla would have known not to show me that post...
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975
    Phil said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    Round here we get a rubbish collection every week that alternates between recycling & general waste. Food waste is collected every week. Generally it seems to work fine - the recyclable / non-recyclable waste split means that bins get to be full roughly when collection happens (and you can get larger bins for larger households).
    Same here. Seems to be OK. Glass is collected from the bins about twice a week; we live nearby so hear the crashing!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,885
    biggles said:

    If Sunak went, surely he’d almost have to pick Gove?

    One of Gove, Truss and Hunt. Can’t see anyone else as being qualified.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,387
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss
    @BorisJohnson
    reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move
    @RishiSunak
    as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    5m
    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...

    Any potential names in the frame for CotE?
    Lord Osborne?
    Only in TSE's dreams methinks... ;)
    Nah, George hasn't been an MP for nearly five years, he's never coming back to politics.

    He's loving life too much, recently became a father again, and most importantly, he couldn't reconcile being Chancellor and delivering the policies of Boris Johnson and the modern day Tory party.
    That would be a father again via his former adviser having divorced his wife.

    On some things at least he might still fit in well with Boris!
    The party of family values... They love families so much they have more than one of them.
    Or if Rees Mogg have 6 children with his wife. Jacob takes the traditional Roman Catholic view and does not use contraception
    Nah, Jacob Rees-Mogg strikes me as the type of person who buys contraceptives but doesn't know how to use it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,387
    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    If Sunak went, surely he’d almost have to pick Gove?

    One of Gove, Truss and Hunt. Can’t see anyone else as being qualified.
    It'll be Nadine Dorries and you know it.
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    AlistairM said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    I could manage with traditional bins being collected once/month. Our recycling bin on the other hand is normally overflowing after 2 weeks. All the soft plastics which are normally marked as not recyclable we now take to the Coop who will recycle it. Means we end up with minimal waste going in the "normal" bin.

    My preferred collection routine would be:
    - Ordinary bins: Every 4 weeks (currently every 2)
    - Recycle bins: Every week (currently every 2)
    - Food waste bins: Every 2 weeks (currently every 2)

    I think councils need to work on recycling soft plastics. A lot of what goes into ordinary bins could be recycled.
    Food waste every two weeks, at least in summer, seems sub-optimal.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    It does appear another BM-21 Grad Multiple rocket launcher was damaged/captured by Ukrainian forces in the village.
    https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1521805180597059585

    Take a look at this picture. Looks like an old Lada with a Z painted on it. What does it say about the situation for the Russian forces if they are using these types of vehicle?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,202
    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    If Sunak went, surely he’d almost have to pick Gove?

    One of Gove, Truss and Hunt. Can’t see anyone else as being qualified.
    He gave the job to Javid before. With Cummings gone he could do so again.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340
    AlistairM said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a little, err, worrying. It sounds awfully like they’re trying to find groups of trained mercenary soldiers, as they did with the Chechens.
    On the other hand, shows their desperate situation. Making their relationship with Israel even worse.
    It’s almost like now the mask has slipped, they are dropping all pretence of being anything other than the baddies.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Applicant said:

    AlistairM said:

    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the reason the LibDems had a rocky spell in Kingston-u-T is because they screwed up finances. And made a mess of the town centre, although the leaning phone boxes amuse me (my brother thinks they're an example of profligacy). They have since got on top of things and they're surefire to win.

    This is one of the reasons I think Woking represents real value at 2/1. The tory minority council have massively screwed up the money. It's the third most debt-ridden council in the entire United Kingdom. Yes that's right: Woking. £1.84 billion in debt. A tory led council. It's staggering.

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    Last Con election broadcast I saw, a night or so ago, claimed that only Lab or LD councils were in debt and likely to default.
    I shouted something about Northants at the TV but the chap didn't seem to hear me!
    I think lying has become the Con norm under Johnson. Eg I got their leaflet for Camden and it claimed the Lab council only does the bins fortnightly. Just not true. It's every Tuesday. They come early so you put them out Monday night. System works like a dream. It's unimprovable. So if the Tories are planning to make it a referendum on the bins, if they think they have a wedge issue here with this, they're in for a nasty shock. Bins very good under Labour in Camden.
    I could hardly believe this.

    Are you saying in London boroughs, your rubbish is collected every week ? It certainly seems to be the case in the borough webpages I have spot-checked.

    WTF .. I think everywhere in Wales, rubbish bins are collected once every two weeks (usually longer).

    In Gwynedd, it is every three weeks. In Abertawe it is every two weeks, in Conwy, it is every 4 weeks,

    Just absolutely typical of London, preaching to the rest of the country... but not practising what they preach :wink:

    The rest of us have been told to reduce our landfill, so we get reduced collections.

    And you say Labour are responsible for this ....
    I could manage with traditional bins being collected once/month. Our recycling bin on the other hand is normally overflowing after 2 weeks. All the soft plastics which are normally marked as not recyclable we now take to the Coop who will recycle it. Means we end up with minimal waste going in the "normal" bin.

    My preferred collection routine would be:
    - Ordinary bins: Every 4 weeks (currently every 2)
    - Recycle bins: Every week (currently every 2)
    - Food waste bins: Every 2 weeks (currently every 2)

    I think councils need to work on recycling soft plastics. A lot of what goes into ordinary bins could be recycled.
    Food waste every two weeks, at least in summer, seems sub-optimal.
    Had no issue with it myself even in the Summer. The bins lock so keeps everything contained.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340
    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    If Sunak went, surely he’d almost have to pick Gove?

    One of Gove, Truss and Hunt. Can’t see anyone else as being qualified.
    I agree. So he’ll pick Hancock…..
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994
    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    If Sunak went, surely he’d almost have to pick Gove?

    One of Gove, Truss and Hunt. Can’t see anyone else as being qualified.
    Not being "qualified" isn't necessarily an impediment to appointment with this government.

    Dorries. Patel. Shapps. Jenrick. That one with the really large head.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    edited May 2022
    AlistairM said:

    It does appear another BM-21 Grad Multiple rocket launcher was damaged/captured by Ukrainian forces in the village.
    https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1521805180597059585

    Take a look at this picture. Looks like an old Lada with a Z painted on it. What does it say about the situation for the Russian forces if they are using these types of vehicle?

    This one doesn't have a sun grenade roof.....
  • Options

    Is there a list of which councils are counting over night and estimated timing of results?

    Seek and you shall find, IIRC, about a third are counting overnight.

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
    Thanks for the googling.

    So most London boroughs and some mets are overnight - the initial perspective will be based on those?
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340

    Is there a list of which councils are counting over night and estimated timing of results?

    Seek and you shall find, IIRC, about a third are counting overnight.

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
    Thanks for the googling.

    So most London boroughs and some mets are overnight - the initial perspective will be based on those?
    For a very brief period before NI takes over, and then we get the Queen’s Speech. I think Boris is lucky. Again.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678
    In light relief - they are trying to reintroduce the Junkers 52.

    https://scramble.nl/civil-news/the-return-of-the-junkers-ju-52

    Persuade some of your Home Guard 1940 reenactment group to learn parachuting, and that's the opposition sorted out.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,885
    AlistairM said:

    It does appear another BM-21 Grad Multiple rocket launcher was damaged/captured by Ukrainian forces in the village.
    https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1521805180597059585

    Take a look at this picture. Looks like an old Lada with a Z painted on it. What does it say about the situation for the Russian forces if they are using these types of vehicle?

    Another missile launcher with a Ukranian flag on it, good to see!

    The old Lada was probably looted. There’s quite an astonishing collection of 1980s and 1990s cars in Ukraine, both Soviet and Western brands. They’ll be easier to hot wire and keep running than more modern types.
This discussion has been closed.