- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Too much nuclear risk, what with him being a bit loopy. They could cause him all sorts of trouble, though, and probably bring him down very quickly if and when they want, with a mix of economic and military manoeuvres. China is the last major economic pillar standing for him.
Exactly why would China risk war with a current ally and nuclear armed military superpower when Xi clearly has Putin's support to invade Taiwan which is what he really wants while Putin has distracted the west by invading Ukraine and when he knows Biden would do little bar economic sanctions about it anyway?
Because they'll never have a better chance to have a massive mineral-rich land grab?
They may consider that currently, Russia is a spent force. China isn't going to be selling much to Russia for the next decade. No-one is.
Of course I'm not saying it is very likely. But I'd be surprised if there weren't a massive planning exercise going on in Beijing right now, just to consider all their options.
"Putin 'moves family members to Siberian 'underground city' designed to survive a nuclear war', says Russian professor who also claimed Vladimir is suffering from secret illness"
As Sir Mervyn King observed - once a bank run starts the smart thing is to join the queue:
Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
In times like these I might have to place my faith in the eccentric predictions of Nostradamus for our time. He mentioned the fish being boiled in the Black Sea, but not in Europe, as far as I know.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
He is indeed but, in today's world, he needs control of the resources - and the Russian Far East is a very tempting target. However, I suspect control will come through soft, than hard, force.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
Does China need to take military action? I don't think so, China will have Russia over a barrel on trade. China will get what it wants from Russia at knock-down prices. The Russian government can and probably will terrorise and starve Ukraine into submission, but strategically Putin's actions will go in the history books as a catastrophe for his country.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
The fact of the survival of the Russian column heading towards Kyiv is evidence of the limits of the capability of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Ukrainians are also suffering losses every day, but have fewer reserves. They may pass a breaking point beyond which their capability to resist across such wide fronts is much reduced.
It could be evidence. Alternatively, as has been pointed out, that column is mighty vulnerable to a number of frontal attacks etc.
We don't know if the Russians are advancing because the Ukrainians can't attack it or because they are waiting for an optimal moment to attack.
Surely the best time to attack it is when it is farthest from its supply lines and reinforcements? Not that I know much about it. But that would seem logical to this layman.
It looks like Russia is starting to get the upper hand in Ukraine. However, even if they win the war, how can they possibly hold Ukraine? At the very least there is going to be a massive anti-Russian insurgency fed with arms from other nations. At the same time sanctions in Russia are going to have a huge impact. Will the Russian people stand for their kids being sent into a warzone against a nation where so many of their relatives must live whilst at the same time suffering the misery of an economic collapse? It sounds a remarkably similar situation as to what ended the USSR.
I am also a bit puzzled about this 40 mile Russian column. Anyone who has been in a long motorway tailback knows how long it takes to get moving again. Surely in this sort of situation it is only going to be worse as not every vehicle is going to move again. Is it deliberate as a challenge to NATO to dare bomb it and risk escalation? It must be a very easy target for a well organised aerial force. Or is it the simpler situation that they just don't have the logistics to keep it moving?
The convoy is very odd - I can't think of a reason why you'd *want* that situation. As you say, it is a risk and a massive choke point.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Too much nuclear risk, what with him being a bit loopy. They could cause him all sorts of trouble, though, and probably bring him down very quickly if and when they want, with a mix of economic and military manoeuvres. China is the last major economic pillar standing for him.
Exactly why would China risk war with a current ally and nuclear armed military superpower when Xi clearly has Putin's support to invade Taiwan which is what he really wants while Putin has distracted the west by invading Ukraine and when he knows Biden would do little bar economic sanctions about it anyway?
Because they'll never have a better chance to have a massive mineral-rich land grab?
They may consider that currently, Russia is a spent force. China isn't going to be selling much to Russia for the next decade. No-one is.
Of course I'm not saying it is very likely. But I'd be surprised if there weren't a massive planning exercise going on in Beijing right now, just to consider all their options.
China isn't playing Civ and trying to grab all the land and resources it can wherever they are. Their priority is Taiwan and it's not clear how nobbling Russia helps them get that.
In times like these I might have to place my faith in the eccentric predictions of Nostradamus, for our time. He mentioned the fish being boiled in the Black Sea, but not in Europe, as far as I know.
The identity of Mabus has long been speculated on.
You have done more evil than all who lived before you. You have made for yourself other gods, idols made of metal; you have aroused my anger and turned your back on me.
The first-stage charge distributes an aerosol made up of very fine material – from a carbon-based fuel to tiny metal particles. A second charge ignites that cloud, creating a fireball, a huge shock wave, and a vacuum as it sucks up all surrounding oxygen. The blast wave can last for significantly longer than a conventional explosive and is capable of vaporising human bodies. Russia using them in a “bunker-buster” role to destroy defensive positions. effects can be pretty horrific, because of that effect of creating a vacuum and sucking the air out of the lungs of defenders
😢
By this it is evident who are the children of God, and who are the children of the devil: whoever does not practice righteousness is not of God, nor is the one who does not love his brother.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
The fact of the survival of the Russian column heading towards Kyiv is evidence of the limits of the capability of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Ukrainians are also suffering losses every day, but have fewer reserves. They may pass a breaking point beyond which their capability to resist across such wide fronts is much reduced.
It could be evidence. Alternatively, as has been pointed out, that column is mighty vulnerable to a number of frontal attacks etc.
We don't know if the Russians are advancing because the Ukrainians can't attack it or because they are waiting for an optimal moment to attack.
Surely the best time to attack it is when it is farthest from its supply lines and reinforcements? Not that I know much about it. But that would seem logical to this layman.
The counter argument goes get them into urban areas where it becomes messy and / or air support on any enemy is more difficult. You might argue that it is better to add more to the convoy if you think you can take it out at some point. Who knows?
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
He is indeed but, in today's world, he needs control of the resources - and the Russian Far East is a very tempting target. However, I suspect control will come through soft, than hard, force.
Part of the Greater China Nationalism is that "we don't invade other countries" - yes, tell that to Tibet etc.
China itself is resource rich. And they are getting what they want by buying their way in across Africa and elsewhere.
Another big element in GCN is not starting expensive wars until they are ready - they see their military strength as growing. Hence the rhetoric you hear from them about "when we are ready, we will take Taiwan like {insert metaphor for really easily}".
It looks like Russia is starting to get the upper hand in Ukraine. However, even if they win the war, how can they possibly hold Ukraine? At the very least there is going to be a massive anti-Russian insurgency fed with arms from other nations. At the same time sanctions in Russia are going to have a huge impact. Will the Russian people stand for their kids being sent into a warzone against a nation where so many of their relatives must live whilst at the same time suffering the misery of an economic collapse? It sounds a remarkably similar situation as to what ended the USSR.
I am also a bit puzzled about this 40 mile Russian column. Anyone who has been in a long motorway tailback knows how long it takes to get moving again. Surely in this sort of situation it is only going to be worse as not every vehicle is going to move again. Is it deliberate as a challenge to NATO to dare bomb it and risk escalation? It must be a very easy target for a well organised aerial force. Or is it the simpler situation that they just don't have the logistics to keep it moving?
See the post earlier - the MoD was giving the clear impression this morning the Russians are not doing that well.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
He is indeed but, in today's world, he needs control of the resources - and the Russian Far East is a very tempting target. However, I suspect control will come through soft, than hard, force.
Part of the Greater China Nationalism is that "we don't invade other countries" - yes, tell that to Tibet etc.
China itself is resource rich. And they are getting what they want by buying their way in across Africa and elsewhere.
Another big element in GCN is not starting expensive wars until they are ready - they see their military strength as growing. Hence the rhetoric you hear from them about "when we are ready, we will take Taiwan like {insert metaphor for really easily}".
True but the Russian Far East has got a fuck load more minerals and commodities, and it's on their border without a strategic threat nearby. Having effective control of those resources would make China a far deadlier opponent,
They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
I thought part of that one had been drone attacked yesterday. Telegraph:
The satellite images showed a vast Russian convoy bogged down on the road to Kyiv.
Military experts said the 17-mile column, which more than doubled in size overnight on Monday, was a sitting duck for Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. About 20 miles from where it was last spotted, the Russian advance appeared to have hit a wall.
(It's possible that these are two separate events - the 17 miles convoy was going past the side of the airport the Special Forces attempted to take on day 1/2.)
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
We've been proven right about everything else...
Do we know how much funding the Greens have had from Gazprom?
Russian influence in the green lobby has been known for a while
Jolly good.....we'll just carry on then, shall we?
Russia says sanctions won't make it back down.
"This is impossible... If they want to punish us for something, we can’t do anything about that. Let them punish," says Dmitry Peskov. "We don’t have assets in the west. Punish all you want, not a big deal."
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
He is indeed but, in today's world, he needs control of the resources - and the Russian Far East is a very tempting target. However, I suspect control will come through soft, than hard, force.
The Chinese have long deeply studied the fall of the Soviet Union. (Somewhat ironic that the Russians didn't appear to). One key conclusion they drew was the economy at home is of paramount importance. And troops abroad is a disastrous situation to get into. They'll take economic rather than military control all day every day. Look at Africa. This is a win-win for them whatever happens. The Russian economy is trashed. The West's hasn't been helped. They'll get cheap resources from the former who have no other buyers, and sell to the latter. Politically, they wield huge influence. They can play the two sides off. This applies whatever the shake out is. Why would they chuck these gains away by doing summat daft?
They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
I thought part of that one had been drone attacked yesterday. Telegraph:
The satellite images showed a vast Russian convoy bogged down on the road to Kyiv.
Military experts said the 17-mile column, which more than doubled in size overnight on Monday, was a sitting duck for Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. About 20 miles from where it was last spotted, the Russian advance appeared to have hit a wall.
(It's possible that these are two separate events - the 17 miles convoy was going past the side of the airport the Special Forces attempted to take on day 1/2.)
Maybe the Ukrainians having been playing Warhammer 40K?
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
He is indeed but, in today's world, he needs control of the resources - and the Russian Far East is a very tempting target. However, I suspect control will come through soft, than hard, force.
Part of the Greater China Nationalism is that "we don't invade other countries" - yes, tell that to Tibet etc.
China itself is resource rich. And they are getting what they want by buying their way in across Africa and elsewhere.
Another big element in GCN is not starting expensive wars until they are ready - they see their military strength as growing. Hence the rhetoric you hear from them about "when we are ready, we will take Taiwan like {insert metaphor for really easily}".
True but the Russian Far East has got a fuck load more minerals and commodities, and it's on their border without a strategic threat nearby. Having effective control of those resources would make China a far deadlier opponent,
That sounds like playing Risk. Easier just to but the output from mines etc. Buying stuff is cheaper than war - that's why the old empires went away.
It looks like Russia is starting to get the upper hand in Ukraine. However, even if they win the war, how can they possibly hold Ukraine? At the very least there is going to be a massive anti-Russian insurgency fed with arms from other nations. At the same time sanctions in Russia are going to have a huge impact. Will the Russian people stand for their kids being sent into a warzone against a nation where so many of their relatives must live whilst at the same time suffering the misery of an economic collapse? It sounds a remarkably similar situation as to what ended the USSR.
I am also a bit puzzled about this 40 mile Russian column. Anyone who has been in a long motorway tailback knows how long it takes to get moving again. Surely in this sort of situation it is only going to be worse as not every vehicle is going to move again. Is it deliberate as a challenge to NATO to dare bomb it and risk escalation? It must be a very easy target for a well organised aerial force. Or is it the simpler situation that they just don't have the logistics to keep it moving?
The convoy is very odd - I can't think of a reason why you'd *want* that situation. As you say, it is a risk and a massive choke point.
Perhaps there's only one good road. Mud elsewhere.
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
They probably want to draw out the sniper fire, so they can then destroy the building housing the sniper. Along with all of the families who live there. Sacrificing a few of their own troops in the process is no problem.
(I've not been posting since the war started. Not a lot I can say that really needs saying.)
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
He is indeed but, in today's world, he needs control of the resources - and the Russian Far East is a very tempting target. However, I suspect control will come through soft, than hard, force.
Part of the Greater China Nationalism is that "we don't invade other countries" - yes, tell that to Tibet etc.
China itself is resource rich. And they are getting what they want by buying their way in across Africa and elsewhere.
Another big element in GCN is not starting expensive wars until they are ready - they see their military strength as growing. Hence the rhetoric you hear from them about "when we are ready, we will take Taiwan like {insert metaphor for really easily}".
Tbf. It is "we don't invade sovereign UN members." Now that hasn't always been adhered to, but neither Tibet (well played Dalai Lama), nor Taiwan are. So there was at least a quasi-legal case that they were "internal matters". This does not apply to Ukraine.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
He is indeed but, in today's world, he needs control of the resources - and the Russian Far East is a very tempting target. However, I suspect control will come through soft, than hard, force.
The Chinese have long deeply studied the fall of the Soviet Union. (Somewhat ironic that the Russians didn't appear to). One key conclusion they drew was the economy at home is of paramount importance. And troops abroad is a disastrous situation to get into. They'll take economic rather than military control all day every day. Look at Africa. This is a win-win for them whatever happens. The Russian economy is trashed. The West's hasn't been helped. They'll get cheap resources from the former who have no other buyers, and sell to the latter. Politically, they wield huge influence. They can play the two sides off. This applies whatever the shake out is. Why would they chuck these gains away by doing summat daft?
That's my view. The way out of this for Russia is as a Chinese client state.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Too much nuclear risk, what with him being a bit loopy. They could cause him all sorts of trouble, though, and probably bring him down very quickly if and when they want, with a mix of economic and military manoeuvres. China is the last major economic pillar standing for him.
Exactly why would China risk war with a current ally and nuclear armed military superpower when Xi clearly has Putin's support to invade Taiwan which is what he really wants while Putin has distracted the west by invading Ukraine and when he knows Biden would do little bar economic sanctions about it anyway?
Because they'll never have a better chance to have a massive mineral-rich land grab?
They may consider that currently, Russia is a spent force. China isn't going to be selling much to Russia for the next decade. No-one is.
Of course I'm not saying it is very likely. But I'd be surprised if there weren't a massive planning exercise going on in Beijing right now, just to consider all their options.
China isn't playing Civ and trying to grab all the land and resources it can wherever they are. Their priority is Taiwan and it's not clear how nobbling Russia helps them get that.
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Alternatively, in the defence of our hard pressed security people you might inadvertently be smearing on behalf of our unarguably greedy politicians, they weren’t listened to, Russia Report and all that. A senior Tory MP had whip withdrawn for trying to get Russia report into public knowledge, to help us better answer this very question you just answered.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
As Sir Mervyn King observed - once a bank run starts the smart thing is to join the queue:
Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
I don't think that's the case. This has been in the papers for months. It must have been known about for years before that. Hence why we've been training Ukrainian troops etc. What do you think would have been done differently with different intelligence?
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Alternatively, in the defence of our hard pressed security people you are trying to smear on behalf of our politicians, they weren’t listened to, Russia Report and all that. A senior Tory MP had whip withdrawn for trying to get Russia report into public knowledge.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
I'm not trying the smear the intelligence services; they have done an excellent job in the last two months, and the incredible naivety of the west in allowing so much money in has definitely played a big role, but something's clearly gone very badly wrong there.
They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
I thought part of that one had been drone attacked yesterday. Telegraph:
The satellite images showed a vast Russian convoy bogged down on the road to Kyiv.
Military experts said the 17-mile column, which more than doubled in size overnight on Monday, was a sitting duck for Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. About 20 miles from where it was last spotted, the Russian advance appeared to have hit a wall.
(It's possible that these are two separate events - the 17 miles convoy was going past the side of the airport the Special Forces attempted to take on day 1/2.)
Maybe the Ukrainians having been playing Warhammer 40K?
Or did they deploy Creme Brûlée gun?
We need the new three-hundred-and-forty-four-millimeter Lepage glue gun. It glues a whole column of tanks together in mid-advance.
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
How do you know that And is it an intelligence, or a political failure ?
Exactly. The writing has been on the wall for years, but Western polities have been stimied by a combination of internal difficulties with politicians & “thought leaders” bought off by Russian money & the diplomatic complexity of convincing other countries that a unified front against Russian belligerence was necessary. Now they have a Schelling point to rally around & boy are they rallying around it.
I have no idea of the current Ukrainian military capabilities but if they can hit that convoy hard it makes perfect sense to hold back for now. There is still the possibility of Putin withdrawing under a fig leaf and also that he will be somehow removed to enable a withdrawal under a fig leaf. If really heavy casualties are inflicted on the Russians in a humiliating way then the stakes are raised and the risk of severe civilian casualties or escalation into more global conflict are increased dramatically. The best tactical situation is for Ukraine to block and inflict steady casualties for now if they can and hope for economic destabilisation of Russia to also have an effect. If Putin moves to large scale destruction of cities I assume Ukrainians will go all out.
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Rangers fans get very upset when naughty opposition fans call them zombies, perhaps cockroaches might go down better?
Careful; someone here might be a Celtic fan who'd LOVE that!
Why do you think Hollywood likes filming zombie and vampire films in Glasgow?
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
I don't think that's the case. This has been in the papers for months. It must have been known about for years before that. Hence why we've been training Ukrainian troops etc. What do you think would have been done differently with different intelligence?
But this is surely years in the making, not months, and I'm sure intelligence hasn't kept up with it. Look at the vast scope of it. I'd agree this is an intelligence-political failure, even a civilisational failure, but that doesn't really absolve any of us.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Yugoslavia was a specially set up Tribunal, like Nuremburg. (But did it form the triggering precedent for the ICC ?)
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
One of the oligarch's "yachts" Ragnok was recently boarded in Norway amidst suspicions it had a cable-cutting capability within it....
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Alternatively, in the defence of our hard pressed security people you are trying to smear on behalf of our politicians, they weren’t listened to, Russia Report and all that. A senior Tory MP had whip withdrawn for trying to get Russia report into public knowledge.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
I'm not trying the smear the intelligence services; they have done an excellent job in the last two months, and the incredible naivety of the west in allowing so much money in has definitely played a big role, but something's clearly gone very badly wrong there.
UPDATE — Polish President Duda just said: "We are not going to send any [fighter] jets to the Ukrainian airspace" because "that would suggest an open military interference in the Ukrainian conflict." NATO is not a party to this conflict, Duda said.
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
One of the oligarch's "yachts" Ragnok was recently boarded in Norway amidst suspicions it had a cable-cutting capability within it....
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
I don't think that's the case. This has been in the papers for months. It must have been known about for years before that. Hence why we've been training Ukrainian troops etc. What do you think would have been done differently with different intelligence?
But this is surely years in the making, not months. Look at the vast scope of it. I'd agree this is an intelligence-political failure, even a civilisational failure, but that doesn't really absolve any of us.
But we don't typically get to hear about what the intelligence services know. I suspect the intelligence services have had rather longer in terms of advanced notice than the general public. And what would you do if you knew it was a threat? You couldn't, beforehand, get Ukraine into NATO. The best you could do would be to arm and train them. Which is what was done.
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Alternatively, in the defence of our hard pressed security people you might inadvertently be smearing on behalf of our unarguably greedy politicians, they weren’t listened to, Russia Report and all that. A senior Tory MP had whip withdrawn for trying to get Russia report into public knowledge, to help us better answer this very question you just answered.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
The UK & US governments have been telling the Germans since Nord Stream 2 was conceived that it was bad idea and designed entirely to attack Ukraine.
For which they got called stupid, bigoted etc etc.
The mistake that was made was to assume the attack would be economic - that Putin would use the Gas Weapon to squeeze the Eastern European states into acquiescence. Rather than deploy rocket launcher batteries against apartment blocks.
A few months back, when it became clear that Putin was going "Full Tonto", again the US and UK called it first. For which they were called stupid, bigoted etc etc.
Hell, remember the reaction to the "Full Tonto" comment?
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
One of the oligarch's "yachts" Ragnok was recently boarded in Norway amidst suspicions it had a cable-cutting capability within it....
No idea how valid this is, but US officials briefing NBC news...
"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Too much nuclear risk, what with him being a bit loopy. They could cause him all sorts of trouble, though, and probably bring him down very quickly if and when they want, with a mix of economic and military manoeuvres. China is the last major economic pillar standing for him.
Exactly why would China risk war with a current ally and nuclear armed military superpower when Xi clearly has Putin's support to invade Taiwan which is what he really wants while Putin has distracted the west by invading Ukraine and when he knows Biden would do little bar economic sanctions about it anyway?
Because they'll never have a better chance to have a massive mineral-rich land grab?
They may consider that currently, Russia is a spent force. China isn't going to be selling much to Russia for the next decade. No-one is.
Of course I'm not saying it is very likely. But I'd be surprised if there weren't a massive planning exercise going on in Beijing right now, just to consider all their options.
China isn't playing Civ and trying to grab all the land and resources it can wherever they are. Their priority is Taiwan and it's not clear how nobbling Russia helps them get that.
China is playing Civ.
So is Russia - badly.
Russia currently appears to be doing what the crap AI in Civ 5 and 6 does when attacking a city: sending its forces in a big line so they can be defeated one by one.
UPDATE — Polish President Duda just said: "We are not going to send any [fighter] jets to the Ukrainian airspace" because "that would suggest an open military interference in the Ukrainian conflict." NATO is not a party to this conflict, Duda said.
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
I don't think that's the case. This has been in the papers for months. It must have been known about for years before that. Hence why we've been training Ukrainian troops etc. What do you think would have been done differently with different intelligence?
But this is surely years in the making, not months. Look at the vast scope of it. I'd agree this is an intelligence-political failure, even a civilisational failure, but that doesn't really absolve any of us.
But we don't typically get to hear about what the intelligence services know. I suspect the intelligence services have had rather longer in terms of advanced notice than the general public. And what would you do if you knew it was a threat? You couldn't, beforehand, get Ukraine into NATO. The best you could do would be to arm and train them. Which is what was done.
The usual modus operandi would be to get everything into internal subversion if you knew the scale of the threat, i think. I know it's extremely diffiicult with a regime like his, but I doubt people have known that personally, and I doubt that that's been done. Putin has been a semi-partner, after all.
I don't know want to frighten everyone even more, but there's another thing - Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's really known why.
We are living in somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're about to wake up from.
Look at it this way - if Putin wants to escalate the situation by attacks on western infrastructure he could probably do it in a much simpler way.
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
One of the oligarch's "yachts" Ragnok was recently boarded in Norway amidst suspicions it had a cable-cutting capability within it....
Cable-cutting would be an act of war though, wouldn't it?
And of course there are probably some Russian cables that could be cut in return.
It is also probably worth reiterating at this juncture that there is little sign that Russia is planning for a war with the west. It has its hands full in Ukraine right now.
There is danger of overreach, miscalculation, escalation right now, though, and that’s what we should be trying very hard to avoid!
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Rangers fans get very upset when naughty opposition fans call them zombies, perhaps cockroaches might go down better?
Careful; someone here might be a Celtic fan who'd LOVE that!
Why do you think Hollywood likes filming zombie and vampire films in Glasgow?
They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
I thought part of that one had been drone attacked yesterday. Telegraph:
The satellite images showed a vast Russian convoy bogged down on the road to Kyiv.
Military experts said the 17-mile column, which more than doubled in size overnight on Monday, was a sitting duck for Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. About 20 miles from where it was last spotted, the Russian advance appeared to have hit a wall.
(It's possible that these are two separate events - the 17 miles convoy was going past the side of the airport the Special Forces attempted to take on day 1/2.)
Maybe the Ukrainians having been playing Warhammer 40K?
Or did they deploy Creme Brûlée gun?
We need the new three-hundred-and-forty-four-millimeter Lepage glue gun. It glues a whole column of tanks together in mid-advance.
I broke the news, the other day, that the Creme Brûlée Gun is actually an adapted, Mk II version of the Lepage glue gun.
One hit, and it turns entire divisions into Left Bank intellectuals.
Nice bit of profiteering going on here, on the part of the Home office.
"Ms Klymova crossed the border from Ukraine to Hungary and then flew to Paris to meet her mother, where they are grappling with a slow and bureaucratic process.
After a lot of confusion, they have now applied for a standard visitor's visa - their only option - which came with what she described as a "horrendous fee".
The family was told that a fast-track, next-working-day visa costs €1,312 (£1,100), while a five-day processing visa costs €394 (£329) - plus a €120 (£100) appointment fee.
Ms Klymova did not qualify for the fee waiver recently announced by the Home Office because she is not a British citizen."
UPDATE — Polish President Duda just said: "We are not going to send any [fighter] jets to the Ukrainian airspace" because "that would suggest an open military interference in the Ukrainian conflict." NATO is not a party to this conflict, Duda said.
No idea how valid this is, but US officials briefing NBC news...
"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400
No idea how valid this is, but US officials briefing NBC news...
"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400
UPDATE — Polish President Duda just said: "We are not going to send any [fighter] jets to the Ukrainian airspace" because "that would suggest an open military interference in the Ukrainian conflict." NATO is not a party to this conflict, Duda said.
There was a claim circulating previously that Poland was going to let Ukrainian pilots take off in Polish jets to attack Russian troops from Polish bases, which was a bit surprising for reasons related to global nuclear armageddon. So the comment may just have been about that, rather than meaning that they're not going to give/sell them the jets.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 1h A No Fly Zone enforced by NATO is an act of war that could *easily start A NUCLEAR WAR*. It is INSANE & coming from many of the same people who gave us Iraq/Afghan disasters. People who suggest it/similar shd be nowhere near power. Make your voice heard today
No idea how valid this is, but US officials briefing NBC news...
"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400
Sounds like some hideous combination of AH and Trump.
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Alternatively, in the defence of our hard pressed security people you are trying to smear on behalf of our politicians, they weren’t listened to, Russia Report and all that. A senior Tory MP had whip withdrawn for trying to get Russia report into public knowledge.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
I'm not trying the smear the intelligence services; they have done an excellent job in the last two months, and the incredible naivety of the west in allowing so much money in has definitely played a big role, but something's clearly gone very badly wrong there.
GCHQ has long been recognised as world-class. Its reputation is, if anything, being enhanced by the current conflict.
It is only about five miles down the road from where I live. I've been past many times but they don't encourage casual callers so I've never got closer than the A40. I'm never completely sure whether it is good or bad to be close to such a key facility in the event of nuclear war. Perhaps other PBers could let me have their views.
I suspect on balance it is good, because it will be better protected than most of the UK, but if it is bad I'll just say 'So long...and thanks for all the fish.'
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Rangers fans get very upset when naughty opposition fans call them zombies, perhaps cockroaches might go down better?
Careful; someone here might be a Celtic fan who'd LOVE that!
Why do you think Hollywood likes filming zombie and vampire films in Glasgow?
Then again when Holywood chose to film Batman, set of course in Gotham City infamous for its crime and corruption where else to film that than Liverpool?
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Yes. Attacking down single axis, in column is an interesting plan. It practically begs for flank attacks. And blocking moves on the road itself.
That is only a risk when you have mobile forces against you. They don't.
Drones are mobile, so are aircraft.
The classic delaying tactic would be to blow up some bridges, or drop some stuff across the road. Add some mines for fun. Then have teams with anti-material rifles and anti-tank weapons hiding in the surroundings - up to a couple of miles away. Cause some loses, eventually the road is cleared.
Meanwhile hit the column while it is stalled.
Then the next road block.
The Ukranians have already blown up pretty much every major bridge north and west of Kiev.
That massive column can’t go forwards, because roads in front are blocked and full of Ukranians with anti-tank weapons. There are reports of drone strikes on it already this morning.
To the east of Kiev, there’s a big river with only four or five highway bridges over it, with difficult approach roads if you’re trying not to be spotted.
According to the Ukranians, the Russians have lost 29 aircraft so far, 2.5% of the whole Russian combat fleet in four days! Carry on at this rate, and in three months they’ll have lost half of their combat Air Force (assuming they still have the other half serviceable, and existing in reality rather than just on paper).
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
One of the oligarch's "yachts" Ragnok was recently boarded in Norway amidst suspicions it had a cable-cutting capability within it....
Since so many people seem to be having thermonuclear war fantasy's why not see how they turn out? Great game, bit old now but very interesting, especially about the trade offs between first strike and defence.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Yes. Attacking down single axis, in column is an interesting plan. It practically begs for flank attacks. And blocking moves on the road itself.
That is only a risk when you have mobile forces against you. They don't.
Drones are mobile, so are aircraft.
The classic delaying tactic would be to blow up some bridges, or drop some stuff across the road. Add some mines for fun. Then have teams with anti-material rifles and anti-tank weapons hiding in the surroundings - up to a couple of miles away. Cause some loses, eventually the road is cleared.
Meanwhile hit the column while it is stalled.
Then the next road block.
The Ukranians have already blown up pretty much every major bridge north and west of Kiev.
That massive column can’t go forwards, because roads in front are blocked and full of Ukranians with anti-tank weapons. There are reports of drone strikes on it already this morning.
To the east of Kiev, there’s a big river with only four or five highway bridges over it, with difficult approach roads if you’re trying not to be spotted.
According to the Ukranians, the Russians have lost 29 aircraft so far, 2.5% of the whole Russian combat fleet in four days! Carry on at this rate, and in three months they’ll have lost half of their combat Air Force (assuming they still have the other half serviceable, and existing in reality rather than just on paper).
So you are saying the the Ukrainian *have* been playing Warhammer 40K?
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Yugoslavia was a specially set up Tribunal, like Nuremburg. (But did it form the triggering precedent for the ICC ?)
Map's a bit of a mess colour-coding awry; Myanmar's in green, should be 'light red' and Sudan seems to be in the wrong place. And why light and dark red. Why not red and blue or some other clear distinction.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 1h A No Fly Zone enforced by NATO is an act of war that could *easily start A NUCLEAR WAR*. It is INSANE & coming from many of the same people who gave us Iraq/Afghan disasters. People who suggest it/similar shd be nowhere near power. Make your voice heard today
This is an example of the phenomenon I was warning about earlier. There is a vast amount of momentum in support of Ukraine. However, it is taking the form of a campaign that seeks to force governments in to doing things that escalate the conflict, and do not resolve it.
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
One of the oligarch's "yachts" Ragnok was recently boarded in Norway amidst suspicions it had a cable-cutting capability within it....
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Rangers fans get very upset when naughty opposition fans call them zombies, perhaps cockroaches might go down better?
Careful; someone here might be a Celtic fan who'd LOVE that!
Why do you think Hollywood likes filming zombie and vampire films in Glasgow?
Then again when Holywood chose to film Batman, set of course in Gotham City infamous for its crime and corruption where else to film that than Liverpool?
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Alternatively, in the defence of our hard pressed security people you are trying to smear on behalf of our politicians, they weren’t listened to, Russia Report and all that. A senior Tory MP had whip withdrawn for trying to get Russia report into public knowledge.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
I'm not trying the smear the intelligence services; they have done an excellent job in the last two months, and the incredible naivety of the west in allowing so much money in has definitely played a big role, but something's clearly gone very badly wrong there.
GCHQ has long been recognised as world-class. Its reputation is, if anything, being enhanced by the current conflict.
It is only about five miles down the road from where I live. I've been past many times but they don't encourage casual callers so I've never got closer than the A40. I'm never completely sure whether it is good or bad to be close to such a key facility in the event of nuclear war. Perhaps other PBers could let me have their views.
I suspect on balance it is good, because it will be better protected than most of the UK, but if it is bad I'll just say 'So long...and thanks for all the fish.'
I don't know want to unsettle everyone even more unecessarily, but there's another fact, maybe to be accustomed to from now ; Putin's ships have been sniffing around undersea internet cables for a couple of years now, and no one's known why.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
One of the oligarch's "yachts" Ragnok was recently boarded in Norway amidst suspicions it had a cable-cutting capability within it....
They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 1h A No Fly Zone enforced by NATO is an act of war that could *easily start A NUCLEAR WAR*. It is INSANE & coming from many of the same people who gave us Iraq/Afghan disasters. People who suggest it/similar shd be nowhere near power. Make your voice heard today
This is an example of the phenomenon I was warning about earlier. There is a vast amount of momentum in support of Ukraine. However, it is taking the form of a campaign that seeks to force governments in to doing things that escalate the conflict, and do not resolve it.
The only way to resolve the conflict is to escalate it until Russia is defeated.
The only alternative is appeasement and let Russia take whatever they want.
Some idealised version of "de-escalation" is off there in the land of unicorns and rainbows along with unilateral nuclear disarmament, which Ukraine of course did.
Astonishing pressure must be on Johnson at moment. One slip from him and Biden and we are in WWIII.
For all that many of us loathe his character and his way of doing business we must put that all aside for time being and hope and pray he makes the right calls.
Media starting to call for no-fly zone. Really, really terribly dangerous times.
That's changes since Oct 2021 so not really surprising at all, but yes that's utterly irrelevant just as October's Con 40, Lab 32 was utterly irrelevant as well.
Comments
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1498612606042611716
They may consider that currently, Russia is a spent force. China isn't going to be selling much to Russia for the next decade. No-one is.
Of course I'm not saying it is very likely. But I'd be surprised if there weren't a massive planning exercise going on in Beijing right now, just to consider all their options.
Fuck Off, Russian Foreign Minister.
Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1498593663789813765
Not that I know much about it. But that would seem logical to this layman.
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle had threatened to grant a UQ on the subject if she didn't appear in the HoC today
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1498614611465150466
I'm sure Sir Lindsay didn't "threaten"....he'll just have pointed out the consequences of no Ministerial Statement.
The first-stage charge distributes an aerosol made up of very fine material – from a carbon-based fuel to tiny metal particles. A second charge ignites that cloud, creating a fireball, a huge shock wave, and a vacuum as it sucks up all surrounding oxygen. The blast wave can last for significantly longer than a conventional explosive and is capable of vaporising human bodies.
Russia using them in a “bunker-buster” role to destroy defensive positions. effects can be pretty horrific, because of that effect of creating a vacuum and sucking the air out of the lungs of defenders
😢
By this it is evident who are the children of God, and who are the children of the devil: whoever does not practice righteousness is not of God, nor is the one who does not love his brother.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498615475726651396
China itself is resource rich. And they are getting what they want by buying their way in across Africa and elsewhere.
Another big element in GCN is not starting expensive wars until they are ready - they see their military strength as growing. Hence the rhetoric you hear from them about "when we are ready, we will take Taiwan like {insert metaphor for really easily}".
NORD STREAM 2 GAS PIPELINE'S SWISS-BASED OWNER NORD STREAM 2 AG IS CONSIDERING FILING FOR INSOLVENCY -SOURCES
NORDSTREAM 2 AG'S OWNER GAZPROM DECLINES TO COMMENT ON THE SITUATION
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1498616100287877120
The satellite images showed a vast Russian convoy bogged down on the road to Kyiv.
Military experts said the 17-mile column, which more than doubled in size overnight on Monday, was a sitting duck for Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. About 20 miles from where it was last spotted, the Russian advance appeared to have hit a wall.
In Bucha, 15 miles north-west of Kyiv, images posted online showed the bloody aftermath of one of the most brutal ambushes and firefights of the five day old war.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/28/russias-17-mile-convoy-thwarted-road-kyiv/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/28/ukraine-live-map-track-war-map-movements-troops-battles-russia/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy2NsAusyWY
(It's possible that these are two separate events - the 17 miles convoy was going past the side of the airport the Special Forces attempted to take on day 1/2.)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/19/russia-secretly-working-with-environmentalists-to-oppose-fracking
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Russia says sanctions won't make it back down.
"This is impossible... If they want to punish us for something, we can’t do anything about that. Let them punish," says Dmitry Peskov. "We don’t have assets in the west. Punish all you want, not a big deal."
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498616282790383618
One key conclusion they drew was the economy at home is of paramount importance.
And troops abroad is a disastrous situation to get into. They'll take economic rather than military control all day every day. Look at Africa.
This is a win-win for them whatever happens. The Russian economy is trashed. The West's hasn't been helped. They'll get cheap resources from the former who have no other buyers, and sell to the latter.
Politically, they wield huge influence. They can play the two sides off.
This applies whatever the shake out is.
Why would they chuck these gains away by doing summat daft?
Or did they deploy Creme Brûlée gun?
I would assume the existence of Plan B, C, D etc.
This is all somewhat of a surreal nightmare, which i hope we're all about to wake up from with the help of some Russian insiders.
(I've not been posting since the war started. Not a lot I can say that really needs saying.)
Now that hasn't always been adhered to, but neither Tibet (well played Dalai Lama), nor Taiwan are. So there was at least a quasi-legal case that they were "internal matters".
This does not apply to Ukraine.
The way out of this for Russia is as a Chinese client state.
So is Russia - badly.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
And is it an intelligence, or a political failure ?
Shell allowed for a significant impairment. Makes sense.
NEW: French energy giant Total will not provide capital for new projects in Russia, which falls short of BP/Shell divestment of Russian investments
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1498593117280382979
What do you think would have been done differently with different intelligence?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcR5KHjoc-0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQMilHlPD1A
For the Court in the Hague, there's this useful map. It looks like a bias towards Africa at this stage for investigations further down the track.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations
https://www.world-today-news.com/the-armed-forces-coast-guard-and-the-police-acted-against-russian-luxury-yacht-ragnar-in-narvik-nrk-nordland/
UPDATE — Polish President Duda just said: "We are not going to send any [fighter] jets to the Ukrainian airspace" because "that would suggest an open military interference in the Ukrainian conflict." NATO is not a party to this conflict, Duda said.
https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1498617907764412417
They could always sell them to Ukraine....
And of course there are probably some Russian cables that could be cut in return.
And what would you do if you knew it was a threat? You couldn't, beforehand, get Ukraine into NATO. The best you could do would be to arm and train them. Which is what was done.
For which they got called stupid, bigoted etc etc.
The mistake that was made was to assume the attack would be economic - that Putin would use the Gas Weapon to squeeze the Eastern European states into acquiescence. Rather than deploy rocket launcher batteries against apartment blocks.
A few months back, when it became clear that Putin was going "Full Tonto", again the US and UK called it first. For which they were called stupid, bigoted etc etc.
Hell, remember the reaction to the "Full Tonto" comment?
For which they were ridiculed.
And denounced, by some, for arming Ukraine.
I would say that they called it - we will only know *when* Putin decided that War was the Way many years from now, I suspect.
"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400
We can dream...
Shipping small arms and land items in isn't difficult an ancient MiG jet -sadly way too obvious...
Especially as Putin seems to be pushing for reasons to get NATO directly involved.
There is danger of overreach, miscalculation, escalation right now, though, and that’s what we should be trying very hard to avoid!
One hit, and it turns entire divisions into Left Bank intellectuals.
"Ms Klymova crossed the border from Ukraine to Hungary and then flew to Paris to meet her mother, where they are grappling with a slow and bureaucratic process.
After a lot of confusion, they have now applied for a standard visitor's visa - their only option - which came with what she described as a "horrendous fee".
The family was told that a fast-track, next-working-day visa costs €1,312 (£1,100), while a five-day processing visa costs €394 (£329) - plus a €120 (£100) appointment fee.
Ms Klymova did not qualify for the fee waiver recently announced by the Home Office because she is not a British citizen."
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-please-help-british-man-appeals-for-uk-visa-rules-to-be-relaxed-to-save-family-trapped-in-ukraine-12554367
Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
·
1h
A No Fly Zone enforced by NATO is an act of war that could *easily start A NUCLEAR WAR*.
It is INSANE & coming from many of the same people who gave us Iraq/Afghan disasters.
People who suggest it/similar shd be nowhere near power.
Make your voice heard today
It is only about five miles down the road from where I live. I've been past many times but they don't encourage casual callers so I've never got closer than the A40. I'm never completely sure whether it is good or bad to be close to such a key facility in the event of nuclear war. Perhaps other PBers could let me have their views.
I suspect on balance it is good, because it will be better protected than most of the UK, but if it is bad I'll just say 'So long...and thanks for all the fish.'
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/tv/liverpools-transformation-gotham-city-batman-23130148
That massive column can’t go forwards, because roads in front are blocked and full of Ukranians with anti-tank weapons. There are reports of drone strikes on it already this morning.
To the east of Kiev, there’s a big river with only four or five highway bridges over it, with difficult approach roads if you’re trying not to be spotted.
According to the Ukranians, the Russians have lost 29 aircraft so far, 2.5% of the whole Russian combat fleet in four days! Carry on at this rate, and in three months they’ll have lost half of their combat Air Force (assuming they still have the other half serviceable, and existing in reality rather than just on paper).
Great game, bit old now but very interesting, especially about the trade offs between first strike and defence.
https://www.gog.com/en/game/defcon
Oh and supposedly russian marines have mutanied, refusing to attack.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498587998627282945?t=0jeifSht3HxbpEOgO3thkg&s=19
Can't see how this is going to end personally, so much can go wrong and how will Putin react if he feels he can't even trust his armed forces now?
And why light and dark red. Why not red and blue or some other clear distinction.
CON 35 (-5)
LAB 42 (+10)
LD 8 (+2)
SNP 5 (-1)
PLD 1 (=)
GRN 6 (-3)
RUK 2 (-1)
OTHER 2 (=)
@NCPoliticsUK @mattsingh for @itvpeston
Fieldwork: 21st-28th Feb 2022 (changes on 11th-18th Oct 2021)
N:2001
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1498616790246694919
Polls are irrelevant again?
Submarines setup to play with cables are extremely expensive and rare beasts - the Americans only ever had a couple at any one time.
The only alternative is appeasement and let Russia take whatever they want.
Some idealised version of "de-escalation" is off there in the land of unicorns and rainbows along with unilateral nuclear disarmament, which Ukraine of course did.
For all that many of us loathe his character and his way of doing business we must put that all aside for time being and hope and pray he makes the right calls.
Media starting to call for no-fly zone. Really, really terribly dangerous times.
That's changes since Oct 2021 so not really surprising at all, but yes that's utterly irrelevant just as October's Con 40, Lab 32 was utterly irrelevant as well.