They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Thanks. The danger with Johnson is that he uses the conflict as a distraction from his domestic problems. I think there is an element of that going on, but his assertiveness and charisma has been positive in other ways. Hard to judge, at the moment.
I find it quite interesting that many on PB seem to think Johnson has had a good couple of weeks.
It feels to me that in the big picture Johnson has looked pretty irrelevant. He's said some of the right things but with very little action and it's fairly clear that for leadership in Europe countries are now looking to the EU bloc. If Johnson really wanted to make a difference he should be looking at a much more extensive list of individual sanctions/property confiscations in London and Surrey. If oligarch families are in residence let them spend a few weeks being interned.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them
“To an extent”?
20,000 trained Ukrainian troops since 2015 is a heck of a lot more of “an extent” than any of our European peers.
Or do people think it’s a coincidence that the Ukrainian army is not the walk-over it was in 2014?
Yes, that is the extent and it is something to be proud of. What we didn't do, and should have done, is tackle Londonograd. We clearly didn't plan for the refugeee crisis either.
However, I don't see the point in relitigating the past. What matters is what happens from here.
And I think that goes for Europe, too.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders. Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
We never nuked Beijing over the Uighurs or held Tel Aviv to account over Palestine..
I'm not getting into a debate today on whataboutery nor on those conflict zones
We have to stand up to Putin. Even if that comes at a cost.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Thanks. The danger with Johnson is that he uses the conflict as a distraction from his domestic problems. I think there is an element of that going on, but his assertiveness and charisma has been positive in other ways. Hard to judge, at the moment.
I find it quite interesting that many on PB seem to think Johnson has had a good couple of weeks.
It feels to me that in the big picture Johnson has looked pretty irrelevant. He's said some of the right things but with very little action and it's fairly clear that for leadership in Europe countries are now looking to the EU bloc. If Johnson really wanted to make a difference he should be looking at a much more extensive list of individual sanctions/property confiscations in London and Surrey. If oligarch families are in residence let them spend a few weeks being interned.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them
“To an extent”?
20,000 trained Ukrainian troops since 2015 is a heck of a lot more of “an extent” than any of our European peers.
Or do people think it’s a coincidence that the Ukrainian army is not the walk-over it was in 2014?
Yes, that is the extent and it is something to be proud of. What we didn't do, and should have done, is tackle Londonograd. We clearly didn't plan for the refugeee crisis either.
However, I don't see the point in relitigating the past. What matters is what happens from here.
And I think that goes for Europe, too.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders. Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
Totally agree.
At some stage, though, we need to recognise that everything has changed. That will require major strategic recalibration.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
Well option 2 yes, but it would be a total game changer in our life. We would be at conflict.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
The key player to watch here is the US. They are noticeably showing restraint. For all of Europe’s positioning, the US calls the shots here and it will be the US to whom the Russian government will be looking for indicators.
I am not saying we shouldn’t be worried. War in Europe as a thing is enough cause for worry without adding talk of MAD into the equation.
It's at a time like this that it is good to have a POTUs who remembers previous confrontations with Russia, and how they were de-escalated, rather than some cosplay kid brought up on Call of Duty.
More importantly, Putin's alleged catspaw is no longer in the Whitehouse. Can you imagine the West's response if The Donald was still in charge?
There is a lot of whinging about how wishy left-leaning liberals got us into this mess, but we spent years electing right-wing populist leaders in the west, ineffectual nobodies whose main function was tapping on twitter or posing in costume for publicity shots etc.
No wonder Putin invaded. We were too busy applauding the idiots we elected to worry about some country that many of us could not find on a map. Putin was probably surprised that we even noticed...
Yes, if there's one thing that would erode this broad consensus on NATO it would be Mr Trump back in the White House.
I do think it incumbent on him to prepare for speeches like the one he made in the Ukrainian church. Off the cuff and rambling isn't good enough, and it certainly isn't Churchillian.
It was lucky there was film crew there to record his spontaneous act...
Of course there was a film crew there. The Ukrainians would have made sure. Their public relations effort has been superb in this conflict. Very, very media savvy.
Whilst the Russians have clowns like PJohnson spamming the airwaves.
From here on in, though, the big decisions will be taken by the US and the EU. That is the realpolitik.
Here's a thought:
Imagine if Brexit had been "a success". Imagine if, as brexiters hoped, the EU had post 2016 fallen apart with a number of countries leaving amid chaos with members trying to re-adopt individual markets & currencies.
Go back and look at what has happened over the last few weeks. Coherent EU action driving change has been a myth. In almost every case - sending arms and equipment, introducing economic sanctions, closing airspace - it has been individual countries that have both driven it and actually done it with the EU only following up when it is already a fait accompli. The closure of airspace is a classic example with Brussels only adopting an EU wide ban when most countries that mattered had already done it individually.
That might be the case but when you’re dealing with 27 countries things do take time . I don’t want to re-hash old arguments but some on the Leave side actively wanted the EU to fall apart .
And that’s what Putin has wanted so whether they like it or not they’re aligned with him on that and if that had occurred things would be far worse now .
They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
Or that the Russians have sorted out air superiority for the area. And/or they have set up the multi layered air defence setup the Soviet armies were famous for - long range SAMs, backed by medium range SAMS, backed by short ranged SAMS, backed by gun vehicles, backed by giving everyone (including the cooks) shoulder launched missiles.
Is it possible that the Russians might call it a day once they get the land border to Crimea? Putin could sell that as a kind of victory and if the Ukrainians are patient they can wait for the Russian economy to collapse when surely they'll be in no position to deal with a resistance force.
Yes.
They will try a big push to take Kyiv first. If that succeeds then the psychological momentum swings in their favour.
However, if it fails I would think they could stop at any moment, and declare that they'd sufficiently mauled the Ukrainian armed forces that the threat to Russia had been defeated.
We shoud be using joint russian /british business and sport contacts to de=escalate not ramp things up in general. I am not sure its good that BP have been told to get off the Rosneft board for instance .
Political posturing, both from the govt and opposition. It is pathetic.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
We never nuked Beijing over the Uighurs or held Tel Aviv to account over Palestine..
I'm not getting into a debate today on whataboutery nor on those conflict zones
We have to stand up to Putin. Even if that comes at a cost.
You are talking nonsense though. I don't know how you plan to sacrifice your life for the cause, but it doesn't feature on my list of things which have more than .0000001% chance of happening
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Indeed, after this we need to have a forensic, transparent, open and comprehensive inquiry into the role of Russian money and influence of Russian individuals in the British polity over the last 20 years. The Russia report I suspect barely skimmed the surface.
This will be painful for the Conservative Party and for certain individuals from across the political spectrum but by God, it is absolutely necessary.
Investigating their effect on the London housing market over recent years will be enlightening.
Boris was the first to demand Russia was barred from Swift
Technicality as I recall Oliver Dowden mentioned it first in public from the Conservative benches , but no matter.
Your defence of Johnson is becoming tiresome. Johnson has got a lot right, primarily by not getting much wrong. You seem to want to bolster him (personally) at every opportunity, and quite often at the expense of others (mainly the EU and Biden) who have also to date called it mostly right, if on occasions, a little late. Mind you, the EU have called the refugee crisis early.
Personally I don't approve of Johnson and Truss's grandstanding. No one else in Government, particularly Ben Wallace, has embarked on this course of action. Nonetheless, Sandpit, who has a direct interest in Ukraine confirm that the Ukrainian people appreciate Johnson's performance.
I am a Johnson skeptic, and grudgingly accept the job he has done so far is OK. However, ss Mr Johnson is representing our nation on the World stage, I do think it incumbent on him to prepare for speeches like the one he made in the Ukrainian church. Off the cuff and rambling isn't good enough, and it certainly isn't Churchillian.
I give credit where it is due
I am sorry if you find it tiresome, but we are at war and frankly his popularity both in Ukraine and the Baltic States is widely acknowledged and his spontaneous standing ovation by the congregation at the Ukrainian Church in London was genuine
Did you watch the entirety of the Ukrainian Church speech?
Olena and I are grateful to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge @RoyalFamily that at this crucial time, when Ukraine is courageously opposing Russia's invasion, they stand by our country and support our brave citizens. Good will triumph.
I do get it that some on here are very nervous about the escalations and about the rhetoric, although I'm slightly bemused that the very same people who thought Russia Today should not be banned seemed to want to restrict freedom of expression about Putin's war both on here and on social media.
However, this is the real world. It is not the world of a week ago or a month ago. Putin already did the unthinkable, the stupid, the insane. He invaded a European country.
If we don't defend them we don't defend civilisation and we let Putin re-write the entire geopolitical landscape of the western world for a generation.
If Putin detonates a nuclear weapon over Ukraine we emphatically must not sit on the sideline. In such a scenario there is no sideline.
This is not rational policy, and should be challenged quite strongly. Johnson thinks he's performiing a public stance of Churchilian heroism, but he's fundamentally too shallow and insulated a politician to understand the perspective and stakes of the situation outside the glories of his head.
Putin is only going to fail if the regime collapses ; we cannot defeat him. Johnson' team may also be telling him that this sort of rhetoric will increase the internal panic, or bring about more concessions at negotiations, but it won't. It;s just making it harder both for him to come to terms and his internal foes to get rid of him.
I only hope that Boris does not turn up on the Ukrainian border decked in flags and sliding down a zip-wire whilst waving at the cameras.....
British troops have been providing training and capacity building to the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2015.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
Well option 2 yes, but it would be a total game changer in our life. We would be at conflict.
I don't think the question can be answered in the abstract.
Nuclear attacks on Ukraine would surely now be answered. Occupied Georgia, Chechnya, or Syrian rebels? Within Russia on separatists? Not so sure.
Olena and I are grateful to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge @RoyalFamily that at this crucial time, when Ukraine is courageously opposing Russia's invasion, they stand by our country and support our brave citizens. Good will triumph.
We shoud be using joint russian /british business and sport contacts to de=escalate not ramp things up in general. I am not sure its good that BP have been told to get off the Rosneft board for instance .
Between this and your other posts you seem to be firmly on the side of appeasement.
We don't need to appease a Russia that's invading other countries. We need to defeat them.
Unhelpful. State is not talking about appeasement. He is talking about being mindful of the outcomes and what practical steps you might take.
He is talking about appeasement. You can't "de-escalate" with someone who is literally bombarding cities and sending hundreds of thousands of troops in to invade.
We need to do everything we can to destroy Russia's war machine by trashing its economy until the regime either collapses or gives up. Anything less is appeasement.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
"nuclear disarmanent of Russia" - simply won't happen. You're better off coming up with a plan to defeat Russia in a nuclear war. It's that impossible.
I do get it that some on here are very nervous about the escalations and about the rhetoric, although I'm slightly bemused that the very same people who thought Russia Today should not be banned seemed to want to restrict freedom of expression about Putin's war both on here and on social media.
However, this is the real world. It is not the world of a week ago or a month ago. Putin already did the unthinkable, the stupid, the insane. He invaded a European country.
If we don't defend them we don't defend civilisation and we let Putin re-write the entire geopolitical landscape of the western world for a generation.
If Putin detonates a nuclear weapon over Ukraine we emphatically must not sit on the sideline. In such a scenario there is no sideline.
Even then Biden would simply step up sanctions, not go to war with Russia.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them. That is to the government's credit.
The "sclerotic" EU, apparently taken unawares, acted fast enough to cause whiplash.
The UK, which was apparently well prepared, still hasn't got out of our own way.
As time goes on in this conflict, what the UK does or doesn't do will become far less significant. But we did make a difference by arming and training the Ukrainian army. It is churlish to claim otherwise. Right now, the only individual European country that can really make a difference is Germany and it is doing its bit. From here on in, though, the big decisions will be taken by the US and the EU. That is the realpolitik.
Indeed. And the training decision was taken by the previous government (or indeed quite possibly by the one prior to that), and not by the current one.
I do get it that some on here are very nervous about the escalations and about the rhetoric, although I'm slightly bemused that the very same people who thought Russia Today should not be banned seemed to want to restrict freedom of expression about Putin's war both on here and on social media.
However, this is the real world. It is not the world of a week ago or a month ago. Putin already did the unthinkable, the stupid, the insane. He invaded a European country.
If we don't defend them we don't defend civilisation and we let Putin re-write the entire geopolitical landscape of the western world for a generation.
If Putin detonates a nuclear weapon over Ukraine we emphatically must not sit on the sideline. In such a scenario there is no sideline.
Even then Biden would simply step up sanctions, not go to war with Russia.
I agree. I'm not overly interested in Biden.
This is currently Europe's issue. It may yet become global, but remember it wasn't until the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour in WWII that the Americans were finally drawn in. You're right that they won't get involved at the moment.
There are other nuclear players and as the EU (which you hate) has demonstrated, it's not going to sit back. Nor is it going to wait for the US.
I think you're in slight danger of applying yesterday's conventions to today's new geopolitical reality and that includes on the EU. The world changed this past week.
This is not rational policy, and should be challenged quite strongly. Johnson thinks he's performiing a public stance of Churchilian heroism, but he's fundamentally too shallow and insulated a politician to understand the perspective and stakes of the situation outside the glories of his head.
Putin is only going to fail if the regime collapses ; we cannot defeat him. Johnson' team may also be telling him that this sort of rhetoric will increase the internal panic, or bring about more concessions at negotiations, but it won't. It;s just making it harder both for him to come to terms and his internal foes to get rid of him.
I only hope that Boris does not turn up on the Ukrainian border decked in flags and sliding down a zip-wire whilst waving at the cameras.....
British troops have been providing training and capacity building to the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2015.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Thanks. The danger with Johnson is that he uses the conflict as a distraction from his domestic problems. I think there is an element of that going on, but his assertiveness and charisma has been positive in other ways. Hard to judge, at the moment.
I find it quite interesting that many on PB seem to think Johnson has had a good couple of weeks.
It feels to me that in the big picture Johnson has looked pretty irrelevant. He's said some of the right things but with very little action and it's fairly clear that for leadership in Europe countries are now looking to the EU bloc. If Johnson really wanted to make a difference he should be looking at a much more extensive list of individual sanctions/property confiscations in London and Surrey. If oligarch families are in residence let them spend a few weeks being interned.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them
“To an extent”?
20,000 trained Ukrainian troops since 2015 is a heck of a lot more of “an extent” than any of our European peers.
Or do people think it’s a coincidence that the Ukrainian army is not the walk-over it was in 2014?
Yes, that is the extent and it is something to be proud of. What we didn't do, and should have done, is tackle Londonograd. We clearly didn't plan for the refugeee crisis either.
However, I don't see the point in relitigating the past. What matters is what happens from here.
And I think that goes for Europe, too.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders. Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
I really don't think Germany has anything to apologise for except perhaps being overly optimistic (perhaps naivety). 20:20 hindsight is a wonderful thing but should not be used to criticise Germany in this case.
Sadly the UK can have no such excuses about Russian finances. Everyone knew it was compromising us but no one did anything about it.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
She has been criticised by a few on here for daring to speak the unthinkable. But she's right to wake us up. Putin has to be stopped.
It is a good interview. I read the analysis as being to the effect that war with Putin has been going on for 15 years, it is extremely dangerous, he has already used nuclear weapons, and this conflict is best understood as being just a stage in it.
Worth reflecting on the fact that Putin started his invasion of Ukraine 8 years ago, we did nothing then. What has changed in the intervening time is us.
I don't think Hill is saying that the best strategy to beat Putin is to go all in.
The hypothesis that Putin has already used nuclear weapons is tendentious to say the least. The primary function of nuclear warheads is to vaporise cities and armies, the fallout and its ability to poison the whole planet is just a handy after effect and probably the main deterrent to their use.
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
There are a number of cases of people dramatically underestimating the opponent and sending inadequate forces, first.
The first half of Third Servile War was basically this. With the Romans sending new equipment to Spartacus and chums, on the backs of soldiers....
What about sending in your B-troops first in order to "soak up" the opposition's weapons, ammunition and fighters? That's slightly different to underestimating them.
I do get it that some on here are very nervous about the escalations and about the rhetoric, although I'm slightly bemused that the very same people who thought Russia Today should not be banned seemed to want to restrict freedom of expression about Putin's war both on here and on social media.
However, this is the real world. It is not the world of a week ago or a month ago. Putin already did the unthinkable, the stupid, the insane. He invaded a European country.
If we don't defend them we don't defend civilisation and we let Putin re-write the entire geopolitical landscape of the western world for a generation.
If Putin detonates a nuclear weapon over Ukraine we emphatically must not sit on the sideline. In such a scenario there is no sideline.
Even then Biden would simply step up sanctions, not go to war with Russia.
I agree. I'm not overly interested in Biden.
This is currently Europe's issue. It may yet become global, but remember it wasn't until the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour in WWII that the Americans were finally drawn in. You're right that they won't get involved at the moment.
There are other nuclear players and as the EU (which you hate) has demonstrated, it's not going to sit back. Nor is it going to wait for the US.
I think you're in slight danger of applying yesterday's conventions to today's new geopolitical reality and that includes on the EU. The world changed this past week.
Though again it has to be pointed out that any nuclear response will be entirely the decision of the two nuclear powers in Western Europe. The EU won't get a look in. Basically in that situation it is Johnson (God help us) and Macron who will be making that decision.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Thanks. The danger with Johnson is that he uses the conflict as a distraction from his domestic problems. I think there is an element of that going on, but his assertiveness and charisma has been positive in other ways. Hard to judge, at the moment.
I find it quite interesting that many on PB seem to think Johnson has had a good couple of weeks.
It feels to me that in the big picture Johnson has looked pretty irrelevant. He's said some of the right things but with very little action and it's fairly clear that for leadership in Europe countries are now looking to the EU bloc. If Johnson really wanted to make a difference he should be looking at a much more extensive list of individual sanctions/property confiscations in London and Surrey. If oligarch families are in residence let them spend a few weeks being interned.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them
“To an extent”?
20,000 trained Ukrainian troops since 2015 is a heck of a lot more of “an extent” than any of our European peers.
Or do people think it’s a coincidence that the Ukrainian army is not the walk-over it was in 2014?
Yes, that is the extent and it is something to be proud of. What we didn't do, and should have done, is tackle Londonograd. We clearly didn't plan for the refugeee crisis either.
However, I don't see the point in relitigating the past. What matters is what happens from here.
And I think that goes for Europe, too.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders. Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
I really don't think Germany has anything to apologise for except perhaps being overly optimistic (perhaps naivety). 20:20 hindsight is a wonderful thing but should not be used to criticise Germany in this case.
Sadly the UK can have no such excuses about Russian finances. Everyone knew it was compromising us but no one did anything about it.
What do you mean "excuses"?
Its great that Russians have put their finances into the UK, because that means now the UK can seize and sanction them during a conflict. That is a diamond hard "soft power", that is helping to win this war.
If the Russian finances were elsewhere, eg China, then our sanctions now would be impotent in comparison.
I do get it that some on here are very nervous about the escalations and about the rhetoric, although I'm slightly bemused that the very same people who thought Russia Today should not be banned seemed to want to restrict freedom of expression about Putin's war both on here and on social media.
However, this is the real world. It is not the world of a week ago or a month ago. Putin already did the unthinkable, the stupid, the insane. He invaded a European country.
If we don't defend them we don't defend civilisation and we let Putin re-write the entire geopolitical landscape of the western world for a generation.
If Putin detonates a nuclear weapon over Ukraine we emphatically must not sit on the sideline. In such a scenario there is no sideline.
Even then Biden would simply step up sanctions, not go to war with Russia.
I agree. I'm not overly interested in Biden.
This is currently Europe's issue. It may yet become global, but remember it wasn't until the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour in WWII that the Americans were finally drawn in. You're right that they won't get involved at the moment.
There are other nuclear players and as the EU (which you hate) has demonstrated, it's not going to sit back. Nor is it going to wait for the US.
I think you're in slight danger of applying yesterday's conventions to today's new geopolitical reality and that includes on the EU. The world changed this past week.
We are no longer in the EU. How the EU responds is up to them.
We are still in NATO however and will follow the US lead therefore in our response.
However I think the chances of UVDL and Scholz and Macron going to war with Putin's Russia while the US does not are as close to zero as you can get
From here on in, though, the big decisions will be taken by the US and the EU. That is the realpolitik.
Here's a thought:
Imagine if Brexit had been "a success". Imagine if, as brexiters hoped, the EU had post 2016 fallen apart with a number of countries leaving amid chaos with members trying to re-adopt individual markets & currencies.
Go back and look at what has happened over the last few weeks. Coherent EU action driving change has been a myth. In almost every case - sending arms and equipment, introducing economic sanctions, closing airspace - it has been individual countries that have both driven it and actually done it with the EU only following up when it is already a fait accompli. The closure of airspace is a classic example with Brussels only adopting an EU wide ban when most countries that mattered had already done it individually.
Is it possible that the Russians might call it a day once they get the land border to Crimea? Putin could sell that as a kind of victory and if the Ukrainians are patient they can wait for the Russian economy to collapse when surely they'll be in no position to deal with a resistance force.
Yes.
They will try a big push to take Kyiv first. If that succeeds then the psychological momentum swings in their favour.
However, if it fails I would think they could stop at any moment, and declare that they'd sufficiently mauled the Ukrainian armed forces that the threat to Russia had been defeated.
I agree. I am not sure I see a scenario where Russia swallows Ukraine whole which I thought was the most likely outcome at the start of this.
More likely he takes Kyiv, gets some of the territory signed over to him, and goes back to regroup. There follows a period of tensions as he blames the West for all his woes, which hopefully does not escalate into further action. Or he gets defenestrated.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There's a vital difference, though. The International Criminal Court doesn't have jurisdiction over war crimes in Syria or Chechnya. It does have jurisdiction over war crimes committed by anyone in Ukraine.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
I see we're into WarGames for todays PB.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
It's a cross between that and Churchill karaoke night
They missed a trick in not calling them Grim Reaper drones.
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
As far as we know, the Ukrainians may be planning to take out the convoy. However, the longer it stays where it is, the more food and fuel the Russians will be needing to service it.
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
English & Wales Green policy is to leave NATO "in the long term" Scottish Green policy is that an independent Scotland would not join (I a not sure if they have a policy for the UK).
Let's say that in a year's time, we've avoided nuclear war and the situation in eastern Europe is stablish, whichever side 'wins' in the Ukraine conflict.
We've really, really got to start talking about disarmament. This conflict has done a great deal of damage to nuclear proliferation - who will get rid of nukes now that the assurances given to Ukraine are naught?
We need to start disarmament talks. Not unilateral disarmament, but multilateral.
It has to be a carrot-and-stick approach, and also include chemical and biological weapons. We may never get to zero weapons (indeed, some may actually be useful), but we can reduce numbers and encourage other states not to develop NBC weapons.
It's a mess. The world's taken its foot off the pedal towards disarmament, and now we're staring into the abyss.
And yes, this is easy to say. But it needs to be done, however hard it is.
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
There are a number of cases of people dramatically underestimating the opponent and sending inadequate forces, first.
The first half of Third Servile War was basically this. With the Romans sending new equipment to Spartacus and chums, on the backs of soldiers....
What about sending in your B-troops first in order to "soak up" the opposition's weapons, ammunition and fighters? That's slightly different to underestimating them.
Various generals in history claimed to have done variations on this as part of their battle plans.
Trying to remember the chap who weakened his left wing, knowing the Spartans right was their strongest. When they charge, the left collapsed, the Spartan pushed forward, lost formation... and then got the hit by the strengthen right wheeling round to slam into and envelope them.....
Certainly Hollywood likes this for the "Evil" Generals. See Braveheart.
From here on in, though, the big decisions will be taken by the US and the EU. That is the realpolitik.
Here's a thought:
Imagine if Brexit had been "a success". Imagine if, as brexiters hoped, the EU had post 2016 fallen apart with a number of countries leaving amid chaos with members trying to re-adopt individual markets & currencies.
Go back and look at what has happened over the last few weeks. Coherent EU action driving change has been a myth. In almost every case - sending arms and equipment, introducing economic sanctions, closing airspace - it has been individual countries that have both driven it and actually done it with the EU only following up when it is already a fait accompli. The closure of airspace is a classic example with Brussels only adopting an EU wide ban when most countries that mattered had already done it individually.
Yep this is not meant exactly as a criticism of the EU, simply pointing out that they have not driven the response or even really improved on it. They have simply followed what has already been decided by decided, and in many cases executed, by individual members.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Thanks. The danger with Johnson is that he uses the conflict as a distraction from his domestic problems. I think there is an element of that going on, but his assertiveness and charisma has been positive in other ways. Hard to judge, at the moment.
I find it quite interesting that many on PB seem to think Johnson has had a good couple of weeks.
It feels to me that in the big picture Johnson has looked pretty irrelevant. He's said some of the right things but with very little action and it's fairly clear that for leadership in Europe countries are now looking to the EU bloc. If Johnson really wanted to make a difference he should be looking at a much more extensive list of individual sanctions/property confiscations in London and Surrey. If oligarch families are in residence let them spend a few weeks being interned.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them
“To an extent”?
20,000 trained Ukrainian troops since 2015 is a heck of a lot more of “an extent” than any of our European peers.
Or do people think it’s a coincidence that the Ukrainian army is not the walk-over it was in 2014?
Yes, that is the extent and it is something to be proud of. What we didn't do, and should have done, is tackle Londonograd. We clearly didn't plan for the refugeee crisis either.
However, I don't see the point in relitigating the past. What matters is what happens from here.
And I think that goes for Europe, too.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders. Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
I really don't think Germany has anything to apologise for except perhaps being overly optimistic (perhaps naivety). 20:20 hindsight is a wonderful thing but should not be used to criticise Germany in this case.
Sadly the UK can have no such excuses about Russian finances. Everyone knew it was compromising us but no one did anything about it.
What do you mean "excuses"?
Its great that Russians have put their finances into the UK, because that means now the UK can seize and sanction them during a conflict. That is a diamond hard "soft power", that is helping to win this war.
If the Russian finances were elsewhere, eg China, then our sanctions now would be impotent in comparison.
I doubt that the liquid element is sitting there waiting to be seized, though. Which leaves us mostly with property - where I rather suspect the Tories will be nervous of doing anything substantial.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Thanks. The danger with Johnson is that he uses the conflict as a distraction from his domestic problems. I think there is an element of that going on, but his assertiveness and charisma has been positive in other ways. Hard to judge, at the moment.
I find it quite interesting that many on PB seem to think Johnson has had a good couple of weeks.
It feels to me that in the big picture Johnson has looked pretty irrelevant. He's said some of the right things but with very little action and it's fairly clear that for leadership in Europe countries are now looking to the EU bloc. If Johnson really wanted to make a difference he should be looking at a much more extensive list of individual sanctions/property confiscations in London and Surrey. If oligarch families are in residence let them spend a few weeks being interned.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them
“To an extent”?
20,000 trained Ukrainian troops since 2015 is a heck of a lot more of “an extent” than any of our European peers.
Or do people think it’s a coincidence that the Ukrainian army is not the walk-over it was in 2014?
Yes, that is the extent and it is something to be proud of. What we didn't do, and should have done, is tackle Londonograd. We clearly didn't plan for the refugeee crisis either.
However, I don't see the point in relitigating the past. What matters is what happens from here.
And I think that goes for Europe, too.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders. Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
I really don't think Germany has anything to apologise for except perhaps being overly optimistic (perhaps naivety). 20:20 hindsight is a wonderful thing but should not be used to criticise Germany in this case.
Sadly the UK can have no such excuses about Russian finances. Everyone knew it was compromising us but no one did anything about it.
What do you mean "excuses"?
Its great that Russians have put their finances into the UK, because that means now the UK can seize and sanction them during a conflict. That is a diamond hard "soft power", that is helping to win this war.
If the Russian finances were elsewhere, eg China, then our sanctions now would be impotent in comparison.
I doubt that the liquid element is sitting there waiting to be seized, though. Which leaves us mostly with property - where I rather suspect the Tories will be nervous of doing anything substantial.
Is it possible that the Russians might call it a day once they get the land border to Crimea? Putin could sell that as a kind of victory and if the Ukrainians are patient they can wait for the Russian economy to collapse when surely they'll be in no position to deal with a resistance force.
Yes.
They will try a big push to take Kyiv first. If that succeeds then the psychological momentum swings in their favour.
However, if it fails I would think they could stop at any moment, and declare that they'd sufficiently mauled the Ukrainian armed forces that the threat to Russia had been defeated.
I agree. I am not sure I see a scenario where Russia swallows Ukraine whole which I thought was the most likely outcome at the start of this.
More likely he takes Kyiv, gets some of the territory signed over to him, and goes back to regroup. There follows a period of tensions as he blames the West for all his woes, which hopefully does not escalate into further action. Or he gets defenestrated.
Sadly, I don't think this is how it pans out. We are going to get dragged into this war somehow or other. Unless the Chinese stage an intervention and pull the plug sufficiently on Putin support that he thinks again.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There's a vital difference, though. The International Criminal Court doesn't have jurisdiction over war crimes in Syria or Chechnya. It does have jurisdiction over war crimes committed by anyone in Ukraine.
Another vital difference is that Putin has withdrawn Russia from the ICC, a guarantee of future empty gestures. Of course the US doesn’t recognise the ICC either..
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
I see we're into WarGames for todays PB.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
Indeed. I am tempted when it gets like this to respond as per those who want to pay more tax - that is: be my guest. Write the cheque to HMRC. Or in this case get yourself out to a slit trench in Ukraine. Every extra body will help slow the Russian advance.
Meanwhile as has been put by those much wiser than me on the area, you could increase the collective EU defence budget by 1,000x and make conscription mandatory for every male between 15 and 35 and they (the EU nations) still wouldn't fight in Ukraine.
Is it possible that the Russians might call it a day once they get the land border to Crimea? Putin could sell that as a kind of victory and if the Ukrainians are patient they can wait for the Russian economy to collapse when surely they'll be in no position to deal with a resistance force.
Yes.
They will try a big push to take Kyiv first. If that succeeds then the psychological momentum swings in their favour.
However, if it fails I would think they could stop at any moment, and declare that they'd sufficiently mauled the Ukrainian armed forces that the threat to Russia had been defeated.
I agree. I am not sure I see a scenario where Russia swallows Ukraine whole which I thought was the most likely outcome at the start of this.
More likely he takes Kyiv, gets some of the territory signed over to him, and goes back to regroup. There follows a period of tensions as he blames the West for all his woes, which hopefully does not escalate into further action. Or he gets defenestrated.
Sadly, I don't think this is how it pans out. We are going to get dragged into this war somehow or other. Unless the Chinese stage an intervention and pull the plug sufficiently on Putin support that he thinks again.
China aren't going to do that - they have their eyes on the resources sat in frozen Siberia and know that their best chance of getting them will be when Putin is desperate for money.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
Thanks. The danger with Johnson is that he uses the conflict as a distraction from his domestic problems. I think there is an element of that going on, but his assertiveness and charisma has been positive in other ways. Hard to judge, at the moment.
I find it quite interesting that many on PB seem to think Johnson has had a good couple of weeks.
It feels to me that in the big picture Johnson has looked pretty irrelevant. He's said some of the right things but with very little action and it's fairly clear that for leadership in Europe countries are now looking to the EU bloc. If Johnson really wanted to make a difference he should be looking at a much more extensive list of individual sanctions/property confiscations in London and Surrey. If oligarch families are in residence let them spend a few weeks being interned.
The UK saw the dangers earlier than most and, to an extent at least, acted on them
“To an extent”?
20,000 trained Ukrainian troops since 2015 is a heck of a lot more of “an extent” than any of our European peers.
Or do people think it’s a coincidence that the Ukrainian army is not the walk-over it was in 2014?
Yes, that is the extent and it is something to be proud of. What we didn't do, and should have done, is tackle Londonograd. We clearly didn't plan for the refugeee crisis either.
However, I don't see the point in relitigating the past. What matters is what happens from here.
And I think that goes for Europe, too.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders. Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
I really don't think Germany has anything to apologise for except perhaps being overly optimistic (perhaps naivety). 20:20 hindsight is a wonderful thing but should not be used to criticise Germany in this case.
Sadly the UK can have no such excuses about Russian finances. Everyone knew it was compromising us but no one did anything about it.
What do you mean "excuses"?
Its great that Russians have put their finances into the UK, because that means now the UK can seize and sanction them during a conflict. That is a diamond hard "soft power", that is helping to win this war.
If the Russian finances were elsewhere, eg China, then our sanctions now would be impotent in comparison.
I doubt that the liquid element is sitting there waiting to be seized, though. Which leaves us mostly with property - where I rather suspect the Tories will be nervous of doing anything substantial.
Not in the Caymans under the control of the likes of JRM is it?
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
The early Romans used a system where the oldest and most experienced warriers, the triarii, were committed last after the hastati (light infantry) and principes (heavier. better armed with some experience and better weapons). In most fights the battle was won before the triarii were committed.
The rouble has recovered some of its heavy losses but remained under pressure on foreign markets, while Russian shares were suspended for a second day as sanctions tear through the economy.
The Russian currency found some support after authorities ordered exporting companies – including energy giants such as Gazprom and Rosneft – to sell 80pc of their forex revenues on the market.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
How about a declaration by US, GB and EU that all significant assets (including property and Yachts) directly or indirectly owned by Russians with a high net worth will be confiscated and the proceeds used for Ukrainian humanitarian causes and rebuilding unless there is a withdrawal by a certain date?
It is because Russian finance has ended up primarily in the UK and the USA that UK and US sanctions are biting so hard.
We have their wallets in a vice now. That's a strength for us, not a weakness. That's a mistake by the Russians, not by the UK.
There's surely a difference between Russian reliance on the City money market and owning west end property via offshore companies.
Not really - it is because they have so much money invested in London that they were so happy to use the City.
And I suspect now the corporate veil is being removed from the offshore companies a lot of those properties are going to be forfeit.
I have full confidence that London would continue to be an attractive place to invest, without the need for global secrecy. The Government has hobbled these reforms for ten years, not even counting the ten years before when they weren't even considering it.
I am thankful it appears now to be taking up the challenge.
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
The early Romans used a system where the oldest and most experienced warriers, the triarii, were committed last after the hastati (light infantry) and principes (heavier. better armed with some experience and better weapons). In most fights the battle was won before the triarii were committed.
See also Napoleons's Old guard.
Possibly not a perfect analogy...
Phew, so it’ll be a while till the PB Triarii have to fire up our mobility scooters.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
Is it possible that the Russians might call it a day once they get the land border to Crimea? Putin could sell that as a kind of victory and if the Ukrainians are patient they can wait for the Russian economy to collapse when surely they'll be in no position to deal with a resistance force.
Yes.
They will try a big push to take Kyiv first. If that succeeds then the psychological momentum swings in their favour.
However, if it fails I would think they could stop at any moment, and declare that they'd sufficiently mauled the Ukrainian armed forces that the threat to Russia had been defeated.
Kyiv is a holy city, that is where the Russian Orthodox Church has its roots. The history of Christiantity in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia began in Kyiv. Ukrainian and Russian monasticism was born in Kyiv.
Putin is a zealous Orthodox (improbably enough).
Putin would be happy with a partition of the Ukraine. But he wants Kyiv, and the Crimea secured. Perhaps the Black Sea coast as well.
I suspect that partition is where this will end .. for the moment. Of course, this will now be disputed territory for years.
The rouble has recovered some of its heavy losses but remained under pressure on foreign markets, while Russian shares were suspended for a second day as sanctions tear through the economy.
The Russian currency found some support after authorities ordered exporting companies – including energy giants such as Gazprom and Rosneft – to sell 80pc of their forex revenues on the market.
Telegraph business blog
LMFAO they're postponing the inevitable day by day. No doubt hoping they can crack Kyiv and see the West's sanctions then collapse before they do but even if they do get into Kyiv I can't see that happening. They're burning through their accessible reserves too fast.
Russia is more f***ed than a Stepmom on Pornhub that is moonlighting as a Dockyard Hooker.
olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba Last night a large group of RU warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches. They approached the coast. RU was about to shell the beach. UA was about to shoot back, when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa. https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498587998627282945
How about a declaration by US, GB and EU that all significant assets (including property and Yachts) directly or indirectly owned by Russians with a high net worth will be confiscated and the proceeds used for Ukrainian humanitarian causes and rebuilding unless there is a withdrawal by a certain date?
Why are we punishing all Russians? Some of them are hard line critics of the Kremlin.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Very interesting, indeed, possibly. Lukashenko also organised the talks and gave what seemed to be a veiled warning to Putin , in the exact form of words of his threat to the West the other day, all the while looking terrified. Again, this can easily be interpreted as a challenge to Putin, possibly even more openly so , this time. In that case, he must have support for it.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
Ukraine's Foreign Affairs Minister has tweeted a video of the explosion in Kharkiv's Freedom Square and accuses Russian President Vladimir Putin of war crimes. He is calling on the world to isolate Russia.
How about a declaration by US, GB and EU that all significant assets (including property and Yachts) directly or indirectly owned by Russians with a high net worth will be confiscated and the proceeds used for Ukrainian humanitarian causes and rebuilding unless there is a withdrawal by a certain date?
Why are we punishing all Russians? Some of them are hard line critics of the Kremlin.
True - but in practice some sort of tribunal could exempt those who could prove opposition or at least distance from the regime. The oligarchs have to realise that all the lovely things they desire in the West will be denied them unless they act.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
The UK, like the Lannister's has always paid its debts.
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
The rouble has recovered some of its heavy losses but remained under pressure on foreign markets, while Russian shares were suspended for a second day as sanctions tear through the economy.
The Russian currency found some support after authorities ordered exporting companies – including energy giants such as Gazprom and Rosneft – to sell 80pc of their forex revenues on the market.
Telegraph business blog
LOL.
Yet for all their efforts, and destruction of hard currency reserves, the ruble is back over 100 to the US$ almost immediately this morning. Still stories of exchanges in Moscow wanting 15k of their Monopoly money, from anyone actually looking for a physical Benjamin Franklin.
It must be costing the Russian State and businesses billions every day to keep their currency from collapsing. I bet traders can’t wait for the Moscow stock market to open up again…
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
The early Romans used a system where the oldest and most experienced warriers, the triarii, were committed last after the hastati (light infantry) and principes (heavier. better armed with some experience and better weapons). In most fights the battle was won before the triarii were committed.
See also Napoleons's Old guard.
Possibly not a perfect analogy...
Phew, so it’ll be a while till the PB Triarii have to fire up our mobility scooters.
Nice try, 'arry. Now get back to building the barricades.....
How about a declaration by US, GB and EU that all significant assets (including property and Yachts) directly or indirectly owned by Russians with a high net worth will be confiscated and the proceeds used for Ukrainian humanitarian causes and rebuilding unless there is a withdrawal by a certain date?
Why are we punishing all Russians? Some of them are hard line critics of the Kremlin.
True - but in practice some sort of tribunal could exempt those who could prove opposition or at least distance from the regime. The oligarchs have to realise that all the lovely things they desire in the West will be denied them unless they act.
That's just the sanctions regime but with a presumption of guilt. We'd be taking charge of a lot of yachts and then handing them back again.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
I see we're into WarGames for todays PB.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
I have a meeting of trustees of our pension fund at 2. I did wonder if I should be pointing out that thermonuclear war has excellent prospects of reducing the fund's liabilities and is therefore completely compatible with our duties as trustees.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
The UK, like the Lannister's has always paid its debts.
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
We could do what Obama did - some Iranian money was transferred to them as shrink wrapped fork-lift pallets of cash, since they banned from SWIFT....
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Very interesting, indeed, possibly. Lukashenko also organised the talks and gave what seemed to be a veiled warning to Putin , in the exact form of words of his threat to the West the other day, all the while looking terrified. Again, this can easily be interpreted as a challenge to Putin, possibly even more openly so , this time. In that case, he must have support for it.
If Lukashenko is trying to save his own job in the case of Putin being deposed I'm not sure it will work.
How about a declaration by US, GB and EU that all significant assets (including property and Yachts) directly or indirectly owned by Russians with a high net worth will be confiscated and the proceeds used for Ukrainian humanitarian causes and rebuilding unless there is a withdrawal by a certain date?
Why are we punishing all Russians? Some of them are hard line critics of the Kremlin.
True - but in practice some sort of tribunal could exempt those who could prove opposition or at least distance from the regime. The oligarchs have to realise that all the lovely things they desire in the West will be denied them unless they act.
The Oligarchs need to realise that if the West's banking and financial systems lock them out and confiscate their stuff, then they will not be Oligarchs any more.
They are mostly well-connected to the Kremlin. If they fail to act in their own interests they will be paupers soon.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
I see we're into WarGames for todays PB.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
I have a meeting of trustees of our pension fund at 2. I did wonder if I should be pointing out that thermonuclear war has excellent prospects of reducing the fund's liabilities and is therefore completely compatible with our duties as trustees.
If Leon had had his way, covid would have done that job already.
Lukashenko wouldn't say anything remotely like that if there wasn't some support somewhere from Russia, I think. Something's up there, pretty obviously. "There is no need for this." Two days ago : "We must be very careful".
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
I see we're into WarGames for todays PB.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
Greetings, Professor Slackbladder.
Female Party Guest: But what would it be like? I mean, really like?! Who would survive?
Prof. Groeteschele: Who would survive? That's an interesting question. I would predict... convicts and file clerks. [A male guest laughs.] The worst convicts. Those deep down in solitary confinement. And the most ordinary file clerks. Probably for large insurance companies, because they would be in fire-proof rooms, protected by tons of the best insulator in the world: paper. And imagine what will happen. The small group of vicious criminals will fight the army of file clerks for the remaining means of life. The convicts will know violence, but the file clerks will know organization. Who do think'll win? [There is a long pause, and then he laughs.] It's all hypotheses of course, but fun to play around with.
Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran · 7m Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
The UK, like the Lannister's has always paid its debts.
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
They are under sanctions, partly as a result, of taking action resultant on our not paying our debts. Vicious circle. Someone has to show goodwill first.
olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba Last night a large group of RU warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches. They approached the coast. RU was about to shell the beach. UA was about to shoot back, when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa. https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498587998627282945
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
I see we're into WarGames for todays PB.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
I have a meeting of trustees of our pension fund at 2. I did wonder if I should be pointing out that thermonuclear war has excellent prospects of reducing the fund's liabilities and is therefore completely compatible with our duties as trustees.
If Leon had had his way, covid would have done that job already.
I don't think that we have lost a single pensioner to Covid. It's not a huge fund, probably 250 or so beneficiaries, but I do think that indicates that the myth of Covid emptying out our old folks homes and wiping out an elderly generation are somewhat overstated. So, on to the next idea!
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
I recall going to the hustings in the run up to the Labour leadership election, in 2015. The cheers to the rafters when Corbyn called for unilateralism and leaving NATO. It felt at the time like the world had gone mad. Today, it feels strangely more sane, if much more dangerous.
Comments
The failure so far to use drones on that mega convoy suggests that restraint might be part of ongoing back channel discussions. Such restraint has a very limited time-line. This announcement - likely after the things have actually been delivered in theatre - cranks that notion up more.
Recriminations against Germany for not seeing the danger of Ostpolitik are pointless, given they have now recognised that themselves. Let them decide how they will deal with their Schröders.
Whatever we decide to do with respect to Ukraine - and none of the choices are great now - it is of overriding importance that the west stands together in its response.
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia
2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
The first half of Third Servile War was basically this. With the Romans sending new equipment to Spartacus and chums, on the backs of soldiers....
We have to stand up to Putin. Even if that comes at a cost.
At some stage, though, we need to recognise that everything has changed. That will require major strategic recalibration.
Whilst the Russians have clowns like PJohnson spamming the airwaves.
And that’s what Putin has wanted so whether they like it or not they’re aligned with him on that and if that had occurred things would be far worse now .
They will try a big push to take Kyiv first. If that succeeds then the psychological momentum swings in their favour.
However, if it fails I would think they could stop at any moment, and declare that they'd sufficiently mauled the Ukrainian armed forces that the threat to Russia had been defeated.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1498575182583185409
However, this is the real world. It is not the world of a week ago or a month ago. Putin already did the unthinkable, the stupid, the insane. He invaded a European country.
If we don't defend them we don't defend civilisation and we let Putin re-write the entire geopolitical landscape of the western world for a generation.
If Putin detonates a nuclear weapon over Ukraine we emphatically must not sit on the sideline. In such a scenario there is no sideline.
Nuclear attacks on Ukraine would surely now be answered. Occupied Georgia, Chechnya, or Syrian rebels? Within Russia on separatists? Not so sure.
We need to do everything we can to destroy Russia's war machine by trashing its economy until the regime either collapses or gives up. Anything less is appeasement.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
This is currently Europe's issue. It may yet become global, but remember it wasn't until the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour in WWII that the Americans were finally drawn in. You're right that they won't get involved at the moment.
There are other nuclear players and as the EU (which you hate) has demonstrated, it's not going to sit back. Nor is it going to wait for the US.
I think you're in slight danger of applying yesterday's conventions to today's new geopolitical reality and that includes on the EU. The world changed this past week.
https://twitter.com/AlynSmith/status/1489650032865333250
Sadly the UK can have no such excuses about Russian finances. Everyone knew it was compromising us but no one did anything about it.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
"We will therefore cause the collapse of the Russian economy"
https://twitter.com/franceinfo/status/1498563077440159745
Its great that Russians have put their finances into the UK, because that means now the UK can seize and sanction them during a conflict. That is a diamond hard "soft power", that is helping to win this war.
If the Russian finances were elsewhere, eg China, then our sanctions now would be impotent in comparison.
We are still in NATO however and will follow the US lead therefore in our response.
However I think the chances of UVDL and Scholz and Macron going to war with Putin's Russia while the US does not are as close to zero as you can get
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ukraine-russia-funding-weapons-budget-military-aid/
More likely he takes Kyiv, gets some of the territory signed over to him, and goes back to regroup. There follows a period of tensions as he blames the West for all his woes, which hopefully does not escalate into further action. Or he gets defenestrated.
It is because Russian finance has ended up primarily in the UK and the USA that UK and US sanctions are biting so hard.
We have their wallets in a vice now. That's a strength for us, not a weakness. That's a mistake by the Russians, not by the UK.
Scottish Green policy is that an independent Scotland would not join (I a not sure if they have a policy for the UK).
Let's say that in a year's time, we've avoided nuclear war and the situation in eastern Europe is stablish, whichever side 'wins' in the Ukraine conflict.
We've really, really got to start talking about disarmament. This conflict has done a great deal of damage to nuclear proliferation - who will get rid of nukes now that the assurances given to Ukraine are naught?
We need to start disarmament talks. Not unilateral disarmament, but multilateral.
It has to be a carrot-and-stick approach, and also include chemical and biological weapons. We may never get to zero weapons (indeed, some may actually be useful), but we can reduce numbers and encourage other states not to develop NBC weapons.
It's a mess. The world's taken its foot off the pedal towards disarmament, and now we're staring into the abyss.
And yes, this is easy to say. But it needs to be done, however hard it is.
Trying to remember the chap who weakened his left wing, knowing the Spartans right was their strongest. When they charge, the left collapsed, the Spartan pushed forward, lost formation... and then got the hit by the strengthen right wheeling round to slam into and envelope them.....
Certainly Hollywood likes this for the "Evil" Generals. See Braveheart.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
And I suspect now the corporate veil is being removed from the offshore companies a lot of those properties are going to be forfeit.
Meanwhile as has been put by those much wiser than me on the area, you could increase the collective EU defence budget by 1,000x and make conscription mandatory for every male between 15 and 35 and they (the EU nations) still wouldn't fight in Ukraine.
See also Napoleons's Old guard.
Possibly not a perfect analogy...
The rouble has recovered some of its heavy losses but remained under pressure on foreign markets, while Russian shares were suspended for a second day as sanctions tear through the economy.
The Russian currency found some support after authorities ordered exporting companies – including energy giants such as Gazprom and Rosneft – to sell 80pc of their forex revenues on the market.
Telegraph business blog
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
I am thankful it appears now to be taking up the challenge.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
Putin is a zealous Orthodox (improbably enough).
Putin would be happy with a partition of the Ukraine. But he wants Kyiv, and the Crimea secured. Perhaps the Black Sea coast as well.
I suspect that partition is where this will end .. for the moment. Of course, this will now be disputed territory for years.
Russia is more f***ed than a Stepmom on Pornhub that is moonlighting as a Dockyard Hooker.
@olex_scherba
Last night a large group of RU warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches. They approached the coast. RU was about to shell the beach. UA was about to shoot back, when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498587998627282945
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
Yet for all their efforts, and destruction of hard currency reserves, the ruble is back over 100 to the US$ almost immediately this morning. Still stories of exchanges in Moscow wanting 15k of their Monopoly money, from anyone actually looking for a physical Benjamin Franklin.
It must be costing the Russian State and businesses billions every day to keep their currency from collapsing. I bet traders can’t wait for the Moscow stock market to open up again…
They are mostly well-connected to the Kremlin. If they fail to act in their own interests they will be paupers soon.
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1498426027017744388
Flying the Ukrainian flag next to the flag of our own invader and occupier. Zero sense of irony,
https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1498408183412531205
Female Party Guest: But what would it be like? I mean, really like?! Who would survive?
Prof. Groeteschele: Who would survive? That's an interesting question. I would predict... convicts and file clerks. [A male guest laughs.] The worst convicts. Those deep down in solitary confinement. And the most ordinary file clerks. Probably for large insurance companies, because they would be in fire-proof rooms, protected by tons of the best insulator in the world: paper. And imagine what will happen. The small group of vicious criminals will fight the army of file clerks for the remaining means of life. The convicts will know violence, but the file clerks will know organization. Who do think'll win? [There is a long pause, and then he laughs.] It's all hypotheses of course, but fun to play around with.
@jason_corcoran
·
7m
Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1498593663789813765
Vicious circle. Someone has to show goodwill first.
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’