Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
The UK, like the Lannister's has always paid its debts.
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
They are under sanctions, partly as a result, of taking action resultant on our not paying our debts. Vicious circle. Someone has to show goodwill first.
Not true. They've been under sanctions since the seventies and for very good reason.
They're the ones who need to show goodwill first. We should never respond to blackmail.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
Partly, yes. Although there needs to be give from their side as well, in a number of areas.
The rouble has recovered some of its heavy losses but remained under pressure on foreign markets, while Russian shares were suspended for a second day as sanctions tear through the economy.
The Russian currency found some support after authorities ordered exporting companies – including energy giants such as Gazprom and Rosneft – to sell 80pc of their forex revenues on the market.
Telegraph business blog
LOL.
Yet for all their efforts, and destruction of hard currency reserves, the ruble is back over 100 to the US$ almost immediately this morning. Still stories of exchanges in Moscow wanting 15k of their Monopoly money, from anyone actually looking for a physical Benjamin Franklin.
It must be costing the Russian State and businesses billions every day to keep their currency from collapsing. I bet traders can’t wait for the Moscow stock market to open up again…
It's like Norman Lamontski, only with less prospect of success.
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Верховна Рада України @verkhovna_rada ‼️На Чернігівщину зайшли білоруські війська. Інформацію Суспільному підтвердив речник регіонального управління сил тероборони «Північ» Віталій Кирилов. Більше деталей згодом.
"‼️Belarusian troops entered Chernihiv region. The information was confirmed to the Public by the spokesman of the regional department of the forces of the theroboron "North" Vitaly Kirillov. More details later."
Putin could have carried on collecting top $ for gas for years to come. Now...
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner Good Morning from #Germany which brings forward goal to generate the country’s electricity from renewable sources by 15yrs to 2035. Pace of capacity expansion for wind, solar set to triple. Govt to create national gas reserve to avoid a short-term crunch.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
The early Romans used a system where the oldest and most experienced warriers, the triarii, were committed last after the hastati (light infantry) and principes (heavier. better armed with some experience and better weapons). In most fights the battle was won before the triarii were committed.
See also Napoleons's Old guard.
Possibly not a perfect analogy...
The hastati were skirmishers - their job was to harass the enemy and try and break up their formation
The principes were the primary fighting element of the early Roman army.
The triarii were the reserves - being older, they would have less stamina etc.
"Time for you to join the Reserves, Granddad"
There was a Latin expression about being "reduced to your triarii" - similar to "last resort"
olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba Last night a large group of RU warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches. They approached the coast. RU was about to shell the beach. UA was about to shoot back, when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa. https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498587998627282945
If that's even 5% true, amazing.
The percentage of war tweets (from both sides) on twitter that are accurate is something I am keen to know.
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
Верховна Рада України @verkhovna_rada ‼️На Чернігівщину зайшли білоруські війська. Інформацію Суспільному підтвердив речник регіонального управління сил тероборони «Північ» Віталій Кирилов. Більше деталей згодом.
"‼️Belarusian troops entered Chernihiv region. The information was confirmed to the Public by the spokesman of the regional department of the forces of the theroboron "North" Vitaly Kirillov. More details later."
Either any public positioning by Lukashenko to challenge Putin is different from the situation on the ground, he's no longer in control, or all the hints of dissent so far from him have been false. I don't think it's the third, somehow - he looked like a frightened hostage, subtly threatening his captor, on Sunday.
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did". "We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this." Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv. A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory."
That would be good news if true . Perhaps Lukashenko fears protests if he did join in the invasion.
Whatever his motivations, it's better than the alternative.
Lukaschenko would likely be the first domino to fall if this did lead to unrest in Russia and Belarus. I suspect he is treading carefully with his statements. He is noticeably less belligerent than Putin.
Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran · 7m Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
People were talking about the big war chest Putin has (from oil and gas) and the cost of war.
History tells us that propping up a currency falling through economic weakness of the regular kind can run through vast sums in days. See the British economy post war - repeated loans from the Americans vanished into the maw very, very rapidly.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba Last night a large group of RU warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches. They approached the coast. RU was about to shell the beach. UA was about to shoot back, when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa. https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498587998627282945
If that's even 5% true, amazing.
The percentage of war tweets (from both sides) on twitter that are accurate is something I am keen to know.
Way, way less than 5 %, is my guess.
I would say, based on the evidence provided, that the Russians did contemplate such a landing, and did turn around, but probably based on a re-assessment of the risk. Very little evidence of a mutiny, save that ordering men to their deaths (which ultimately they did not) risked one.
Putin could have carried on collecting top $ for gas for years to come. Now...
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner Good Morning from #Germany which brings forward goal to generate the country’s electricity from renewable sources by 15yrs to 2035. Pace of capacity expansion for wind, solar set to triple. Govt to create national gas reserve to avoid a short-term crunch.
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
The early Romans used a system where the oldest and most experienced warriers, the triarii, were committed last after the hastati (light infantry) and principes (heavier. better armed with some experience and better weapons). In most fights the battle was won before the triarii were committed.
See also Napoleons's Old guard.
Possibly not a perfect analogy...
Phew, so it’ll be a while till the PB Triarii have to fire up our mobility scooters.
Exactly - we are keeping our big guns in reserve. Although one wonders who are the PB triarii? Based on length of time on PB, or on numbers of posts? There are always some rising stars, who are paid to post endlessly about the same points who like to post endlessly about the same points, even during working hours. Are these the 'new men' of PB? The equivalent of the equestrian class?
Putin could have carried on collecting top $ for gas for years to come. Now...
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner Good Morning from #Germany which brings forward goal to generate the country’s electricity from renewable sources by 15yrs to 2035. Pace of capacity expansion for wind, solar set to triple. Govt to create national gas reserve to avoid a short-term crunch.
It makes no real difference right now, indeed as the item suggests. Germany would be inflicting tremendous economic harm on its citizens if it were to stop buying Russian gas. And the Russians would have an alternative market in China, albeit the terms would likely favour the Chinese.
But yes, longer term ( @Leon what is our thinking on there being a longer term) it is a good idea. .
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Rangers fans get very upset when naughty opposition fans call them zombies, perhaps cockroaches might go down better?
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Rangers fans get very upset when naughty opposition fans call them zombies, perhaps cockroaches might go down better?
Now now we know how it ended last time people employed that nomenclature.
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko · 17m It looks like Belarusian military has finally joined Putin’s war. Not surprising at all, but this is so sorry to see.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
The UK, like the Lannister's has always paid its debts.
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
They are under sanctions, partly as a result, of taking action resultant on our not paying our debts. Vicious circle. Someone has to show goodwill first.
Not true. They've been under sanctions since the seventies and for very good reason.
They're the ones who need to show goodwill first. We should never respond to blackmail.
I don't think, Mr R, that we're going to agree on this!
Our, and the USA's, conduct over their democratically elected government that we 'didn't like' back in the '50's was very bad.
Two of my disliked teams in trouble because they sold their souls assets to Russians. Hope they both go bust, then it’s just Glasgow Rangers to get rid of.
Rangers have already come back from the dead once. They would probably survive a nuclear war.
Rangers fans get very upset when naughty opposition fans call them zombies, perhaps cockroaches might go down better?
Careful; someone here might be a Celtic fan who'd LOVE that!
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
The UK, like the Lannister's has always paid its debts.
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
They are under sanctions, partly as a result, of taking action resultant on our not paying our debts. Vicious circle. Someone has to show goodwill first.
Not true. They've been under sanctions since the seventies and for very good reason.
They're the ones who need to show goodwill first. We should never respond to blackmail.
I don't think, Mr R, that we're going to agree on this!
Our, and the USA's, conduct over their democratically elected government that we 'didn't like' back in the '50's was very bad.
I'm not disagreeing with that (I don't know enough about it to be fair) however that doesn't justify the actions of the Ayatollahs etc since then.
Some people have said that because Iran is now taking hostages we should pay them money we've refused to pay them, in order to secure the hostages release. To that, I say absolutely not. Paying hostage takers is absolutely not something we should contemplate - sending in the SAS, if the hostages family is willing to consider that and the government is too OTOH is something we perhaps could consider.
Is there much history of invasion forces sending in their 'B' troops first?
The early Romans used a system where the oldest and most experienced warriers, the triarii, were committed last after the hastati (light infantry) and principes (heavier. better armed with some experience and better weapons). In most fights the battle was won before the triarii were committed.
See also Napoleons's Old guard.
Possibly not a perfect analogy...
Phew, so it’ll be a while till the PB Triarii have to fire up our mobility scooters.
Exactly - we are keeping our big guns in reserve. Although one wonders who are the PB triarii? Based on length of time on PB, or on numbers of posts? There are always some rising stars, who are paid to post endlessly about the same points who like to post endlessly about the same points, even during working hours. Are these the 'new men' of PB? The equivalent of the equestrian class?
I fear there may be some disappointments, the 5th Btn. Florid Prose Writers may consist of one raddled old sybarite.
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko · 17m It looks like Belarusian military has finally joined Putin’s war. Not surprising at all, but this is so sorry to see.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Yes. Attacking down single axis, in column is an interesting plan. It practically begs for flank attacks. And blocking moves on the road itself.
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko · 17m It looks like Belarusian military has finally joined Putin’s war. Not surprising at all, but this is so sorry to see.
Hasn't this shown that in the hands of a madman, the entire planet is at risk? That's all it takes: one lunatic with the capability.
Would you really trust Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin (if he's still alive) to do what they say? Is there any evidence to back up such trust?
I said it was easy to say and difficult to do, but we must try to find a way. Seriously restarting talks should be a way. even if Russia, the US, us, France and China halve out stockpiles, it will be a help. It will also give a massive peace dividend.
In a way, chemical and biological weapons frighten me more than nukes.
We should use Iran as a basis. We have failed in our talks there: partly our fault, partly theirs. We are showing the power *real* sanctions can have against a state - that's a stick. Carrot can be all sorts of things, from money to influence in international bodies.
If someone is developing WMD, cut them off from the world internationally. Totally. If they back off, help them. It's hard in the case Iran, whose rhetoric is that much of the west is a 'satan', and we're not much better towards them. NK is another case.
These are just random musings, and possibly laughable. But we - and I mean the world community - need to be thinking of what we can do. The world faces enough issues without adding more problems.
Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Carrots, in the case of Iran, would be paying our debts.
The UK, like the Lannister's has always paid its debts.
However Iran is under sanctions, so we can't transfer them money until they come out of sanctions. Once the need for sanctions ends, then they can be paid.
They are under sanctions, partly as a result, of taking action resultant on our not paying our debts. Vicious circle. Someone has to show goodwill first.
Not true. They've been under sanctions since the seventies and for very good reason.
They're the ones who need to show goodwill first. We should never respond to blackmail.
I don't think, Mr R, that we're going to agree on this!
Our, and the USA's, conduct over their democratically elected government that we 'didn't like' back in the '50's was very bad.
I'm not disagreeing with that (I don't know enough about it to be fair) however that doesn't justify the actions of the Ayatollahs etc since then.
Some people have said that because Iran is now taking hostages we should pay them money we've refused to pay them, in order to secure the hostages release. To that, I say absolutely not. Paying hostage takers is absolutely not something we should contemplate - sending in the SAS, if the hostages family is willing to consider that and the government is too OTOH is something we perhaps could consider.
I'm not saying that the Ayatollahs are nice people, but one could argue that they've been playing the only cards they've got. Mind, I do think it's way over unnecessarily cruel!
And, I believe, other countries which have had hostages there have quietly settled. Even the US.
O/t but Mrs C has just returned from grocery shopping and suspects that she went on the wrong day, or something else is happening. Plenty of empty shelves, apparently. Especially fresh fruit and veg.
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran · 7m Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
People were talking about the big war chest Putin has (from oil and gas) and the cost of war.
History tells us that propping up a currency falling through economic weakness of the regular kind can run through vast sums in days. See the British economy post war - repeated loans from the Americans vanished into the maw very, very rapidly.
I don't understand the point of throwing away your hard currency to temporarily prop up the value of your currency.
Better to keep the hard currency and use it to buy the import goods you require over a longer period of time.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Yes. Attacking down single axis, in column is an interesting plan. It practically begs for flank attacks. And blocking moves on the road itself.
That is only a risk when you have mobile forces against you. They don't.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
I'm not sure they do. To win they need to be able to not just invade, but to put down any resistance and occupy the nation too - and they need to be able to keep paying their troops and supplying them while they do that.
The clock is ticking and Russia is running out of resources - fast.
The UK and USA etc could spend 20 years sitting in Afghanistan before pulling out. Can Russia sustain this for 20 years in Ukraine? Or anything like it? I don't think so.
Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran · 7m Bank run accelerates in #Moscow after Putin imposed crippling capital controls last night to protect a collapsing economy. This is Svetnoi Boulevard in the heart of Moscow.
People were talking about the big war chest Putin has (from oil and gas) and the cost of war.
History tells us that propping up a currency falling through economic weakness of the regular kind can run through vast sums in days. See the British economy post war - repeated loans from the Americans vanished into the maw very, very rapidly.
I don't understand the point of throwing away your hard currency to temporarily prop up the value of your currency.
Better to keep the hard currency and use it to buy the import goods you require over a longer period of time.
They are trying to keep the people off the streets until Kyiv has fallen.
Terrifying. Southeastern Azov Sea city of Mariupol is nearly surrounded by Russian forces and with “practically no electricity supply and centralized heating in the city,” says Mayor Vadim Boychenko. “The enemy is storming the city from all directions.” https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498601434866192386
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
It is not just about firepower, the economy, the will of the soldiers, the support of the people are all important too and he cannot maintain those through might or wishing. They will fail in that objective, if they stick to it, Putin will be toppled.
Alternatively he can perhaps get Crimea and referenda in Donbass, Luhansk and proclaim success, he has saved the Russians from the West.
O/t but Mrs C has just returned from grocery shopping and suspects that she went on the wrong day, or something else is happening. Plenty of empty shelves, apparently. Especially fresh fruit and veg.
Delayed or failed delivery - I found the same when shopping on Sunday..
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
The fact of the survival of the Russian column heading towards Kyiv is evidence of the limits of the capability of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Ukrainians are also suffering losses every day, but have fewer reserves. They may pass a breaking point beyond which their capability to resist across such wide fronts is much reduced.
O/t but Mrs C has just returned from grocery shopping and suspects that she went on the wrong day, or something else is happening. Plenty of empty shelves, apparently. Especially fresh fruit and veg.
Delayed or failed delivery - I found the same when shopping on Sunday..
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko · 17m It looks like Belarusian military has finally joined Putin’s war. Not surprising at all, but this is so sorry to see.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Terrifying. Southeastern Azov Sea city of Mariupol is nearly surrounded by Russian forces and with “practically no electricity supply and centralized heating in the city,” says Mayor Vadim Boychenko. “The enemy is storming the city from all directions.” https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498601434866192386
Terrible. Very old and long-standingly mixed population there - about 150,00 each of Greeks, Russians and Ukrainians.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
I'm not sure they do. To win they need to be able to not just invade, but to put down any resistance and occupy the nation too - and they need to be able to keep paying their troops and supplying them while they do that.
The clock is ticking and Russia is running out of resources - fast.
The UK and USA etc could spend 20 years sitting in Afghanistan before pulling out. Can Russia sustain this for 20 years in Ukraine? Or anything like it? I don't think so.
You raise a key point - for the Russians, this is now a race against time. Can they secure enough objectives / force enough pressure to come out of this with at least some gains before their economy topples over. As was pointed out by somebody else, they are obviously chucking billions to support the currency and that won't last. Moreover, the more days that go on, the more countries look for alternatives to Russia for oil and gas (Algeria's statement a few days back was a clear sign of intent, although I'm not sure of their capabilities). There is a serious chance that, for Putin, he has until the end of next weekend at most before the pressures become too much within Russia.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Those weren't under the ICC, they were under the ICT(f)Y
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
The fact of the survival of the Russian column heading towards Kyiv is evidence of the limits of the capability of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Ukrainians are also suffering losses every day, but have fewer reserves. They may pass a breaking point beyond which their capability to resist across such wide fronts is much reduced.
It could be evidence. Alternatively, as has been pointed out, that column is mighty vulnerable to a number of frontal attacks etc.
We don't know if the Russians are advancing because the Ukrainians can't attack it or because they are waiting for an optimal moment to attack.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Those weren't under the ICC, they were under the ICT(f)Y
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Isn't there an institutional sleight of hand involved in the claim? I believe the Yugoslavs have been prosecuted by an adhoc court established solely for those wars, and that prompted the establishment of a permanent court to prosecute war crimes more generally.
So you might be able to say that the permanent court had only gone after Africans, but only because of the institutional distinction.
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
We've been proven right about everything else...
I dunno about the "UK Green Party" but the Scottish branch (WHICH IS IN GOVERNMENT) is certainly anti-NATO and seems far more interested in the constitution, gender, opposing nuclear, and practically any other subject rather than boring old ecological issues and the environment.
If you ever wondered where all the sellers of Socialist Workers went, look no further.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
It is not just about firepower, the economy, the will of the soldiers, the support of the people are all important too and he cannot maintain those through might or wishing. They will fail in that objective, if they stick to it, Putin will be toppled.
Alternatively he can perhaps get Crimea and referenda in Donbass, Luhansk and proclaim success, he has saved the Russians from the West.
Not sure if this has been commented on before but the MoD thinks clearly the Russians are not doing that well:
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
It is not just about firepower, the economy, the will of the soldiers, the support of the people are all important too and he cannot maintain those through might or wishing. They will fail in that objective, if they stick to it, Putin will be toppled.
Alternatively he can perhaps get Crimea and referenda in Donbass, Luhansk and proclaim success, he has saved the Russians from the West.
Not sure if this has been commented on before but the MoD thinks clearly the Russians are not doing that well:
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Yes. Attacking down single axis, in column is an interesting plan. It practically begs for flank attacks. And blocking moves on the road itself.
That is only a risk when you have mobile forces against you. They don't.
Drones are mobile, so are aircraft.
The classic delaying tactic would be to blow up some bridges, or drop some stuff across the road. Add some mines for fun. Then have teams with anti-material rifles and anti-tank weapons hiding in the surroundings - up to a couple of miles away. Cause some loses, eventually the road is cleared.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Those weren't under the ICC, they were under the ICT(f)Y
It was technically the ICTY, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia but to distinguish this from the ICC is, in my opinion, a bit silly. They are both created by the UN under the same treaty provisions and have an identical jurisprudence with cases from 1 being precedents for the other. The ICTY has had 160 cases, the ICC all of 30. To the best of my knowledge the ICC is yet to convict anyone.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Isn't there an institutional sleight of hand involved in the claim? I believe the Yugoslavs have been prosecuted by an adhoc court established solely for those wars, and that prompted the establishment of a permanent court to prosecute war crimes more generally.
So you might be able to say that the permanent court had only gone after Africans, but only because of the institutional distinction.
The numbers caught, sentenced and gone to jail are pretty disappointing.
It looks like:
8/45 ICC 61/96 Rwanda 87/161 Yugoslavia
Given there were tens of thousands conducting war crimes in Rwanda and Yugoslavia, the chances of war criminals getting caught, convicted and spending time in jail are very low.
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
We've been proven right about everything else...
Do we know how much funding the Greens have had from Gazprom?
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
We've been proven right about everything else...
I dunno about the "UK Green Party" but the Scottish branch (WHICH IS IN GOVERNMENT) is certainly anti-NATO and seems far more interested in the constitution, gender, opposing nuclear, and practically any other subject rather than boring old ecological issues and the environment.
If you ever wondered where all the sellers of Socialist Workers went, look no further.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Isn't there an institutional sleight of hand involved in the claim? I believe the Yugoslavs have been prosecuted by an adhoc court established solely for those wars, and that prompted the establishment of a permanent court to prosecute war crimes more generally.
So you might be able to say that the permanent court had only gone after Africans, but only because of the institutional distinction.
In part. But the ICC has nothing to say about Israel/Palestine, Al-Qaeda; ISIS in the Levant; Myanmar; Xinjiang; Venezuela; Chechnya; or Georgia. You can pick apart WHY if you want, but the removal of the former Yugoslavia does not itself account for the lack of action.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
A good moment to (re) read 'A Short History Of Tractors in Ukrainian'
Indeed. Although the International Harvesters tractor factory is no more.
The EU deemed it part of a monopoly, it was then sold to an Italian firm, after which the EU provided a grant to move all the equipment to Italy. Oops.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Too much nuclear risk, what with him being a bit loopy. They could cause him all sorts of trouble, though, and probably bring him down very quickly if and when they want, with a mix of economic and military manoeuvres. China is the last major economic pillar standing for him.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Yes. Attacking down single axis, in column is an interesting plan. It practically begs for flank attacks. And blocking moves on the road itself.
That is only a risk when you have mobile forces against you. They don't.
Drones are mobile, so are aircraft.
The classic delaying tactic would be to blow up some bridges, or drop some stuff across the road. Add some mines for fun. Then have teams with anti-material rifles and anti-tank weapons hiding in the surroundings - up to a couple of miles away. Cause some loses, eventually the road is cleared.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Isn't there an institutional sleight of hand involved in the claim? I believe the Yugoslavs have been prosecuted by an adhoc court established solely for those wars, and that prompted the establishment of a permanent court to prosecute war crimes more generally.
So you might be able to say that the permanent court had only gone after Africans, but only because of the institutional distinction.
The numbers caught, sentenced and gone to jail are pretty disappointing.
It looks like:
8/45 ICC 61/96 Rwanda 87/161 Yugoslavia
Given there were tens of thousands conducting war crimes in Rwanda and Yugoslavia, the chances of war criminals getting caught, convicted and spending time in jail are very low.
The only woman who has served serious time for war crimes, in recent years, was the former Rwandan Minister for the Family, Pauline Nyiramasuhuko. This is a really interesting article about the reluctance to prosecute women for war crimes.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
Yes. Attacking down single axis, in column is an interesting plan. It practically begs for flank attacks. And blocking moves on the road itself.
That is only a risk when you have mobile forces against you. They don't.
Drones are mobile, so are aircraft.
The classic delaying tactic would be to blow up some bridges, or drop some stuff across the road. Add some mines for fun. Then have teams with anti-material rifles and anti-tank weapons hiding in the surroundings - up to a couple of miles away. Cause some loses, eventually the road is cleared.
Meanwhile hit the column while it is stalled.
Then the next road block.
Somebody's played a lot of Warhammer 40k.
That's what the Chechens did to the Russians, repeatedly.
EDIT: It's why the Russians started flattening everything with artillery for miles around before they entered an area, in Chechnya, as well.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
Isn't there an institutional sleight of hand involved in the claim? I believe the Yugoslavs have been prosecuted by an adhoc court established solely for those wars, and that prompted the establishment of a permanent court to prosecute war crimes more generally.
So you might be able to say that the permanent court had only gone after Africans, but only because of the institutional distinction.
The numbers caught, sentenced and gone to jail are pretty disappointing.
It looks like:
8/45 ICC 61/96 Rwanda 87/161 Yugoslavia
Given there were tens of thousands conducting war crimes in Rwanda and Yugoslavia, the chances of war criminals getting caught, convicted and spending time in jail are very low.
The only woman who has served serious time for war crimes, in recent years, was the former Rwandan Minister for the Family, Pauline Nyiramasuhuko. This is a really interesting article about the reluctance to prosecute women for war crimes.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Too much nuclear risk, what with him being a bit loopy. They could cause him all sorts of trouble, though, and probably bring him down very quickly if and when they want, with a mix of economic and military manoeuvres. China is the last major economic pillar standing for him.
Exactly why would China risk war with a current ally and nuclear armed military superpower when Xi clearly has Putin's support to invade Taiwan which is what he really wants while Putin has distracted the west by invading Ukraine and when he knows Biden would do little bar economic sanctions about it anyway?
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Never, ever, give up. Never, ever, give in to despair. Keep going. We are on the right side here and we are on the strongest side.
Things are going to get bleak, perhaps horribly bleak, particularly for our incredibly brave Ukrainian allies, but however long it takes, we will prevail.
Don't forget that.
emotional drivel i am sorry to say. We need cool heads not speeches
Mate, if you want to give up, if you want to despair, be my guest. I think we will end up on the winning side here. If you don't, so be it.
I dont wnat to give up on the world or my family . /ukraine and always being on the right side of "good" and winning all the time is not as important as my family or indeed civilisation in general.i
If we acquiesce, lie down, and let Putin get away with crushing Ukraine then there is no civilisation.
Civilisation is something that has to be defended against a madman. Even if that means we are heading into the hitherto unthinkable.
I will sacrifice my life to defend civilisation against Putin.
Assuming that Putin does a small scale nuke on a non NATO territory, which I think is a high possibility, what is the response that is more likely to preserve human civilisation?
1. Fire a nuke back on Russia 2. Don't fire a nuke back on Russia, let it be. Work for complete and total isolation of Russia with a view to reparations/legal redress for war crimes, and nuclear disarmanent of Russia.
I am not suggesting for one minute that this should be our 'official' policy, but I am in favour of option 2.
I'm in favour of option 1.
And this is game theory 101, Russia needs to know we're in favour of option 1 before they cross that rubicon.
I see we're into WarGames for todays PB.
Let's play Global Thermonuclear War!
I have a meeting of trustees of our pension fund at 2. I did wonder if I should be pointing out that thermonuclear war has excellent prospects of reducing the fund's liabilities and is therefore completely compatible with our duties as trustees.
If Leon had had his way, covid would have done that job already.
I don't think that we have lost a single pensioner to Covid. It's not a huge fund, probably 250 or so beneficiaries, but I do think that indicates that the myth of Covid emptying out our old folks homes and wiping out an elderly generation are somewhat overstated. So, on to the next idea!
Reinstate the Home Guard and send them to defend Ukrainian homes?
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
Rubbish. Most of their actual trials have been of people from the former Yugoslavia.
I was referring to the ICC. The ICTY was specifically formed to investigate Yugoslav war crimes I believe?
On the original point, how many previous Russian war crimes have been investigated, let alone charges brought?
Absolutely no idea how this thing pans out in the coming days or months.
Putin is hellbent on ramping up the destruction of Ukraine. I would not put it past him to use tactical nukes on it if he gets desperate, particularly as the economy collapses and the circle around him becomes more hostile
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Long-term, I am sure they would love to do that (and a lot of other valuable minerals there as well).
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Xi is a Greater China Nationalist - he wants all the territory that the Chinese Empire ruled. I doubt he is interested in world conquest.
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s - Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow - Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
If I were China, I might be tempted to move my armed forces up to the Russian border.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
Too much nuclear risk, what with him being a bit loopy. They could cause him all sorts of trouble, though, and probably bring him down very quickly if and when they want, with a mix of economic and military manoeuvres. China is the last major economic pillar standing for him.
Exactly why would China risk war with a current ally and nuclear armed military superpower when Xi clearly has Putin's support to invade Taiwan which is what he really wants while Putin has distracted the west by invading Ukraine and when he knows Biden would do little bar economic sanctions about it anyway?
Perhaps an opinion poll told them it was popular with Winnie the Pooh fans?
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
It is not just about firepower, the economy, the will of the soldiers, the support of the people are all important too and he cannot maintain those through might or wishing. They will fail in that objective, if they stick to it, Putin will be toppled.
Alternatively he can perhaps get Crimea and referenda in Donbass, Luhansk and proclaim success, he has saved the Russians from the West.
Not sure if this has been commented on before but the MoD thinks clearly the Russians are not doing that well:
One of the smarter things that have been done is being transparent about what we know, and what we (ie, intelligence agencies) think the Russians are likely to do. No doubt, some stuff is kept back, but it has been highly effective in winning the presentational campaign.
Also, is it just me, but I think President Biden has handled this very well. His years in the Senate and as VP, with an interest in foreign affairs, really paying off. A professional in the White House - like Bush Snr - has its advantages.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
It is not just about firepower, the economy, the will of the soldiers, the support of the people are all important too and he cannot maintain those through might or wishing. They will fail in that objective, if they stick to it, Putin will be toppled.
Alternatively he can perhaps get Crimea and referenda in Donbass, Luhansk and proclaim success, he has saved the Russians from the West.
Not sure if this has been commented on before but the MoD thinks clearly the Russians are not doing that well:
One of the smarter things that have been done is being transparent about what we know, and what we (ie, intelligence agencies) think the Russians are likely to do. No doubt, some stuff is kept back, but it has been highly effective in winning the presentational campaign.
Also, is it just me, but I think President Biden has handled this very well. His years in the Senate and as VP, with an interest in foreign affairs, really paying off. A professional in the White House - like Bush Snr - has its advantages.
Much more measured and calm than some other leaders I could mention.
On the war, I can't help feeling that the last 24 hours, unlike the 24 hours before that have not been good for Ukraine. Russia is taking the gloves off a bit and is getting a bit more casual about what sort of weaponry it uses and what it hits. The death toll has risen precipitously.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
I would take the opposite view. I can't see how Russia can meet its objectives any more.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
I think that column indicates a massive effort to take Kyiv. The assumption behind that is that that would be that. The Russians seem to have forgotten some of their own history. They are likely to be disappointed.
I am not saying the Russians wont put in massive effort or kill many more Ukrainians. But the concept of replacing the Ukrainian PM, turning into a submissive neighbour and buffer to the West, is going to be far too expensive in terms of money, deaths and morale to happen. So what next?
Absorbtion of the country into the USSR, sorry, Russia, seems the only possible end point here for Putin. And I agree with you that the price will be very high. But Mad Vlad (hattip the Sun) doesn't seem to care.
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
It is not just about firepower, the economy, the will of the soldiers, the support of the people are all important too and he cannot maintain those through might or wishing. They will fail in that objective, if they stick to it, Putin will be toppled.
Alternatively he can perhaps get Crimea and referenda in Donbass, Luhansk and proclaim success, he has saved the Russians from the West.
Not sure if this has been commented on before but the MoD thinks clearly the Russians are not doing that well:
One of the smarter things that have been done is being transparent about what we know, and what we (ie, intelligence agencies) think the Russians are likely to do. No doubt, some stuff is kept back, but it has been highly effective in winning the presentational campaign.
Also, is it just me, but I think President Biden has handled this very well. His years in the Senate and as VP, with an interest in foreign affairs, really paying off. A professional in the White House - like Bush Snr - has its advantages.
Much more measured and calm than some other leaders I could mention.
"Putin 'moves family members to Siberian 'underground city' designed to survive a nuclear war', says Russian professor who also claimed Vladimir is suffering from secret illness"
It looks like Russia is starting to get the upper hand in Ukraine. However, even if they win the war, how can they possibly hold Ukraine? At the very least there is going to be a massive anti-Russian insurgency fed with arms from other nations. At the same time sanctions in Russia are going to have a huge impact. Will the Russian people stand for their kids being sent into a warzone against a nation where so many of their relatives must live whilst at the same time suffering the misery of an economic collapse? It sounds a remarkably similar situation as to what ended the USSR.
I am also a bit puzzled about this 40 mile Russian column. Anyone who has been in a long motorway tailback knows how long it takes to get moving again. Surely in this sort of situation it is only going to be worse as not every vehicle is going to move again. Is it deliberate as a challenge to NATO to dare bomb it and risk escalation? It must be a very easy target for a well organised aerial force. Or is it the simpler situation that they just don't have the logistics to keep it moving?
Comments
They're the ones who need to show goodwill first. We should never respond to blackmail.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1498593534114512896
In the case of Iran, I think it can be done.
Looks like a Russian strike right on the center of Kharkiv, in the main square right by the local government HQ this morning.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498548458160021510
@verkhovna_rada
‼️На Чернігівщину зайшли білоруські війська. Інформацію Суспільному підтвердив речник регіонального управління сил тероборони «Північ» Віталій Кирилов. Більше деталей згодом.
9:30 AM · Mar 1, 2022·Twitter for Android
https://twitter.com/verkhovna_rada/status/1498591541920686082
"‼️Belarusian troops entered Chernihiv region. The information was confirmed to the Public by the spokesman of the regional department of the forces of the theroboron "North" Vitaly Kirillov. More details later."
Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
Good Morning from #Germany which brings forward goal to generate the country’s electricity from renewable sources by 15yrs to 2035. Pace of capacity expansion for wind, solar set to triple. Govt to create national gas reserve to avoid a short-term crunch.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1498551567796121605
The principes were the primary fighting element of the early Roman army.
The triarii were the reserves - being older, they would have less stamina etc.
"Time for you to join the Reserves, Granddad"
There was a Latin expression about being "reduced to your triarii" - similar to "last resort"
Way, way less than 5 %, is my guess.
History tells us that propping up a currency falling through economic weakness of the regular kind can run through vast sums in days. See the British economy post war - repeated loans from the Americans vanished into the maw very, very rapidly.
They have concentrated their forces in that column and seem, rightly or wrongly, confident that their air superiority is sufficient for that to be safe. This will allow them to apply overwhelming force. Kyiv has been isolated which means resupply is going to become a major issue. The question may become whether the Russians run out of gas before the Ukranians run out of anti-tank weapons.
The positive side has all been on the sanctions and economic warfare against Russia. I am astonished at how far this has gone and how united the rest of the world has been about it. The economic damage is massive but will it stop the troops on the ground? Russia, historically, has been willing to endure beyond most countries imagination. Is this true of a generation which has grown very used to western toys?
https://twitter.com/CarstenVolkery/status/1498595080915111940
who are paid to post endlessly about the same pointswho like to post endlessly about the same points, even during working hours. Are these the 'new men' of PB? The equivalent of the equestrian class?But yes, longer term ( @Leon what is our thinking on there being a longer term) it is a good idea.
.
So I would expect a pivot back to limiting objectives to Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk either militarily or diplomatically over the next month, that is if Putin survives, he may not.
@IAPonomarenko
·
17m
It looks like Belarusian military has finally joined Putin’s war.
Not surprising at all, but this is so sorry to see.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko
Our, and the USA's, conduct over their democratically elected government that we 'didn't like' back in the '50's was very bad.
With profound sorrow we confirm that an Indian student lost his life in shelling in Kharkiv this morning. The Ministry is in touch with his family.
We convey our deepest condolences to the family.
https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/1498591112188989442
Some people have said that because Iran is now taking hostages we should pay them money we've refused to pay them, in order to secure the hostages release. To that, I say absolutely not. Paying hostage takers is absolutely not something we should contemplate - sending in the SAS, if the hostages family is willing to consider that and the government is too OTOH is something we perhaps could consider.
Mind, I do think it's way over unnecessarily cruel!
And, I believe, other countries which have had hostages there have quietly settled. Even the US.
https://twitter.com/thatjohn/status/1498581806228062209
Plenty of empty shelves, apparently. Especially fresh fruit and veg.
Better to keep the hard currency and use it to buy the import goods you require over a longer period of time.
He then fell foul of the government and he got another posting.
To Iran.
During the Iran-Iraq war.
I think that's called falling out of favour...
https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1498563169874284548
I see increasing problems getting munitions and equipment in from the west. Intelligence is less useful when Ukraine's army has become static and tied down in the cities. Russia has nearly doubled the number of troops in Ukraine in a relatively short period of time. They have the firepower to win this war. I wish it were not so.
Most wars are between undemocratic countries.
This war is unusual because it's an undemocratic country versus a democratic one.
The clock is ticking and Russia is running out of resources - fast.
The UK and USA etc could spend 20 years sitting in Afghanistan before pulling out. Can Russia sustain this for 20 years in Ukraine? Or anything like it? I don't think so.
Whatever it takes, Comrade, whatever it takes...
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498601434866192386
Alternatively he can perhaps get Crimea and referenda in Donbass, Luhansk and proclaim success, he has saved the Russians from the West.
The Ukrainians are also suffering losses every day, but have fewer reserves. They may pass a breaking point beyond which their capability to resist across such wide fronts is much reduced.
Shaun Walker
@shaunwalker7
·
1h
Putin’s long-standing goals:
- Economic prosperity, or at least stability, to compare with the chaotic 1990s
- Have a ukraine friendly or at least neutral to Moscow
- Create divides in the West to undermine any sanctions or other hostile policies
All up in smoke in six days.
We don't know if the Russians are advancing because the Ukrainians can't attack it or because they are waiting for an optimal moment to attack.
It is a pretty short list!
So you might be able to say that the permanent court had only gone after Africans, but only because of the institutional distinction.
If you ever wondered where all the sellers of Socialist Workers went, look no further.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1498551511445553158|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-increased-use-of-artillery-civilian-casualty-risk-increased-uk-defence-ministry-articleshow.html
The classic delaying tactic would be to blow up some bridges, or drop some stuff across the road. Add some mines for fun. Then have teams with anti-material rifles and anti-tank weapons hiding in the surroundings - up to a couple of miles away. Cause some loses, eventually the road is cleared.
Meanwhile hit the column while it is stalled.
Then the next road block.
It looks like:
8/45 ICC
61/96 Rwanda
87/161 Yugoslavia
Given there were tens of thousands conducting war crimes in Rwanda and Yugoslavia, the chances of war criminals getting caught, convicted and spending time in jail are very low.
It would cause Putin a big headache, because he can't keep all his troops tied up in Ukraine. China gets to be seen to be a good guy by us in working to protect its European markets (and not insignificant investments in Ukraine).
And who knows, whilst everyone thinks they are after Taiwan, a blitzkrieg of their own could steal all of Russia's hydrocarbons east of the Urals....
The EU deemed it part of a monopoly, it was then sold to an Italian firm, after which the EU provided a grant to move all the equipment to Italy. Oops.
https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/when-women-commit-war-crimes/
The execution of some women who worked in concentration camps, at the end of WWII remains exceptional.
EDIT: It's why the Russians started flattening everything with artillery for miles around before they entered an area, in Chechnya, as well.
Too much threat of nuclear war though. Vlad would almost certainly use nukes, if not strategic, at least tactical.
Rob Lee
@RALee85
Another video of Russian troops patrolling through Kherson.
https://t.me/vorposte/14544
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498609667257344000
On the original point, how many previous Russian war crimes have been investigated, let alone charges brought?
Putin is hellbent on ramping up the destruction of Ukraine. I would not put it past him to use tactical nukes on it if he gets desperate, particularly as the economy collapses and the circle around him becomes more hostile
Also, is it just me, but I think President Biden has handled this very well. His years in the Senate and as VP, with an interest in foreign affairs, really paying off. A professional in the White House - like Bush Snr - has its advantages.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563727/Putin-moves-family-members-Siberian-underground-city-designed-survive-nuclear-war.html
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has just said that it is unacceptable for Russia that the US has nuclear weapons in Europe.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498610625861373955
I am also a bit puzzled about this 40 mile Russian column. Anyone who has been in a long motorway tailback knows how long it takes to get moving again. Surely in this sort of situation it is only going to be worse as not every vehicle is going to move again. Is it deliberate as a challenge to NATO to dare bomb it and risk escalation? It must be a very easy target for a well organised aerial force. Or is it the simpler situation that they just don't have the logistics to keep it moving?