I’m also getting increasingly worried about the head of steam that seems to have built, especially in Europe (less so the US). People need to cool it.
Speak softly and carry a big stick. Let Russia run out of cash, fuel and tanks, and the will to fight. It was working quite well. Stay on the moral high ground and try to get China on side.
The ramping up of WW3 rhetoric might cause a rallying to the flag in Russia. Has happened several times in Iran in response to Western pressure.
My brother is the same.
But I think it's too late. The escalation is occurring. That's in large measure because Russian forces are not succeeding on the ground and the more they escalate the style of campaign the more our horror turns to indignation and then to action. Russian forces have gone from waltzing in as apparent liberators now to carpet bombing.
Surely we have little choice? We cannot sit back and let this deranged lunatic annihilate a country just because he shouts at us not to get involved. Perhaps I'm wrong and we just sit on our hands and let him do it. Let him destroy an entire country. But he won't stop there.
Europe has irrevocably altered.
I don't think we have a choice but to face him down. He's not going to stop here. And it would embolden others (like China) if we didn't.
The alternative is all of Eastern Europe falls and we're subject to permanent geopolitical blackmail across Europe and the World by authoritarian states.
I agree.
We cannot let Putin get away with this. He is crushing an entire people and place and if we don't stand up to him now it will be the next country and the next and the next.
If it risks a nuclear escalation, then that's the price we have to pay.
Whilst this is all going on we should be doing everything possible to assassinate him. Remove Putin and we can breathe. No one is saying we'll suddenly lurch into a sunlit Russian meadow but we won't be dealing with a man who has literally gone mad.
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman@Mij_EuropeSenior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain
This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Is there such a thing as an EU passport but a good idea anyway
A CNN poll finds 83% of US voters favour increased economic sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, including 84% of Democrats and Republicans and 81% of Independents.
Interesting and unusual consensus in US politics. Is Trump's peculiar stance hurting him?
He was an idiot for coming out with the 'genius' comment, talk about leaving yourself hostage to fortune at the very least. I suspect it might but I also suspect he will pivot away from it.
Look, everyone knows that the only way to stop a nation from magically acquiring nuclear weapons (a surprise even to them), or whatever the pretext is today, is to bomb civilian centres. That's sound logic.
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
What utter rubbish.
I made quite clear I supported Hillary over Trump in 2016 unlike the late missed Plato when she was here at the time.
However a 40 mile armed Russian convoy is advancing on Kyiv, it is naive to think that the war in Ukraine is over when it has barely just begun
“Doing a Plato” is an analogy. This is nothing to do with US politics..,
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
People talking about us 'escalating' seem to ignore the fact that the person escalating events - in violence and rhetoric - is Putin.
Not at all. It has been important the West escalated through sanctions and cutting off Russia the last week. It is a rational, important and perfectly reasonable debate to see if we should stick with about we have done or do more from here.
Putin is wholly to blame, but strategic discussions such as escalation need to be continually made by all parties, innocent or guilty.
UPDATE — Polish President Duda just said: "We are not going to send any [fighter] jets to the Ukrainian airspace" because "that would suggest an open military interference in the Ukrainian conflict." NATO is not a party to this conflict, Duda said.
How many times does it need to be said NATO and the EU are simply not going to become directly involved in the defence of Ukraine.
Any such assistance would need to come through Poland and that would mean possible if not likely targeting of Poland by Russia. That is not a game that anyone wants to play.
I agree there appears that a lot of the nervousness seems to centre around the “what ifs” that are unlikely to come about.
What if NATO forces directly intervene? What if there is a no fly zone?
The simple fact remains that we see absolutely no indication from the US that it is even considering that option. It has on the other hand been very quick to say that is not on the table.
I think that in the social media and Internet age we are quick to jump upon utterances from all and sundry about these decisions, but the fact remains that any decision to make such commitment is a NATO commitment, and without the US that will not happen.
I would be more concerned of the danger of stray missiles etc than I would be about escalation via this route.
Johnson is easily stupid and impulsive enough to think an NFZ is a good idea. Fortunately he'll be told to stay in his lane by Biden.
In his live press conference just now in Warsaw he has just publicly rejected it in response to an understandably very passionate Ukrainian journalist's appeal for it, to save all the children being slaughtered by Putin
I am very grateful that happened. He is, shall we say, not averse to promising things he can't deliver when put on the spot so I am glad that someone (Biden perhaps) was keeping him in check.
Here is the video - very tough question to be fair
Look, everyone knows that the only way to stop a nation from magically acquiring nuclear weapons (a surprise even to them), or whatever the pretext is today, is to bomb civilian centres. That's sound logic.
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman@Mij_EuropeSenior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain
This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Whereas we are avoiding taking Ukrainians because of the off-chance they may possibly be Russian.
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman@Mij_EuropeSenior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain
This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman@Mij_EuropeSenior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain
This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Is there such a thing as an EU passport but a good idea anyway
No there isn't. If there were there are many of us that would happily have one alongside UK. Oh, hang on we used to have that...
I’m also getting increasingly worried about the head of steam that seems to have built, especially in Europe (less so the US). People need to cool it.
Speak softly and carry a big stick. Let Russia run out of cash, fuel and tanks, and the will to fight. It was working quite well. Stay on the moral high ground and try to get China on side.
The ramping up of WW3 rhetoric might cause a rallying to the flag in Russia. Has happened several times in Iran in response to Western pressure.
My brother is the same.
But I think it's too late. The escalation is occurring. That's in large measure because Russian forces are not succeeding on the ground and the more they escalate the style of campaign the more our horror turns to indignation and then to action. Russian forces have gone from waltzing in as apparent liberators now to carpet bombing.
Surely we have little choice? We cannot sit back and let this deranged lunatic annihilate a country just because he shouts at us not to get involved. Perhaps I'm wrong and we just sit on our hands and let him do it. Let him destroy an entire country. But he won't stop there.
Europe has irrevocably altered.
I don't think we have a choice but to face him down. He's not going to stop here. And it would embolden others (like China) if we didn't.
The alternative is all of Eastern Europe falls and we're subject to permanent geopolitical blackmail across Europe and the World by authoritarian states.
I said this a few days ago and was called a moron. Funny how the zeitgeist has shifted.
Not for me or the majority of public opinion, if the latest polls are to believed, it hasn't.
To be fair you are very very dove like and cautious! Maybe that's not a bad thing but you've also been saying that you feel it in your bones that things are going to get better which they clearly aren't. (Eeek I now have the bloody D:Ream song playing in my head.)
The fact is that the situation has evolved. Putin sickeningly is doing the unthinkable. He has gone full tonto. We have to stop him.
Nice bit of profiteering going on here, on the part of the Home office.
"Ms Klymova crossed the border from Ukraine to Hungary and then flew to Paris to meet her mother, where they are grappling with a slow and bureaucratic process.
After a lot of confusion, they have now applied for a standard visitor's visa - their only option - which came with what she described as a "horrendous fee".
The family was told that a fast-track, next-working-day visa costs €1,312 (£1,100), while a five-day processing visa costs €394 (£329) - plus a €120 (£100) appointment fee.
Ms Klymova did not qualify for the fee waiver recently announced by the Home Office because she is not a British citizen."
Nice bit of profiteering going on here, on the part of the Home office.
"Ms Klymova crossed the border from Ukraine to Hungary and then flew to Paris to meet her mother, where they are grappling with a slow and bureaucratic process.
After a lot of confusion, they have now applied for a standard visitor's visa - their only option - which came with what she described as a "horrendous fee".
The family was told that a fast-track, next-working-day visa costs €1,312 (£1,100), while a five-day processing visa costs €394 (£329) - plus a €120 (£100) appointment fee.
Ms Klymova did not qualify for the fee waiver recently announced by the Home Office because she is not a British citizen."
Wasn't that the woman featured on the BBC, about whom Priti Patel told Yvette Cooper in the Commons that everything would be sorted?
She's not coming in. Sorted.
Obviously one of them hypothetical Ukranians.
I think for politicians hypothetical example has a secondary meaning of 'specific example' that they don't want to comment on. They didn't square that with the rest of us.
A CNN poll finds 83% of US voters favour increased economic sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, including 84% of Democrats and Republicans and 81% of Independents.
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
Pleased to hear it, but how do you know the B-team line is nonsense? Curious to know.
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman@Mij_EuropeSenior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain
This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Is there such a thing as an EU passport but a good idea anyway
There isn't but the idea is a simple one - if you pull the qualified people out of Russia (many of whom will happily go to Europe and triple / x times increase their salary) it makes things harder for Putin going forward.
Plus there are a whole set of people who you want to know that when things go bad someone in the EU will find them a suitable job so you don't need to accept that offer from North Korea's nuclear program.
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
What utter rubbish.
I made quite clear I supported Hillary over Trump in 2016 unlike the late missed Plato when she was here at the time.
However a 40 mile armed Russian convoy is advancing on Kyiv, it is naive to think that the war in Ukraine is over when it has barely just begun
“Doing a Plato” is an analogy. This is nothing to do with US politics..,
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
It’s just sad to watch.
There is currently a 40 mile long convoy of Russian tanks and troops advancing on Kyiv.
I have just booked my first foreign holiday in about 3 years so if Putin could bear that in mind it would be appreciated.
Just avoid anywhere in the Russian sphere and you'll be fine. Unforunately they seem to have shifting definitions of that sphere, and some in it are surprised to find themselves in it.
There's been a lot of backslapping about good intelligence, but in the long-run this is the biggest intelligence failure in history.
Putin has been planning something vile for years, and the Western intelligence agencies haven't had the first sniff of it.
Alternatively, in the defence of our hard pressed security people you are trying to smear on behalf of our politicians, they weren’t listened to, Russia Report and all that. A senior Tory MP had whip withdrawn for trying to get Russia report into public knowledge.
Here’s a person saying “careful there” here’s another person offering out lovely rubles and rens.
I'm not trying the smear the intelligence services; they have done an excellent job in the last two months, and the incredible naivety of the west in allowing so much money in has definitely played a big role, but something's clearly gone very badly wrong there.
GCHQ has long been recognised as world-class. Its reputation is, if anything, being enhanced by the current conflict.
It is only about five miles down the road from where I live. I've been past many times but they don't encourage casual callers so I've never got closer than the A40. I'm never completely sure whether it is good or bad to be close to such a key facility in the event of nuclear war. Perhaps other PBers could let me have their views.
I suspect on balance it is good, because it will be better protected than most of the UK, but if it is bad I'll just say 'So long...and thanks for all the fish.'
Didn't the Dolphins live?
Being the second most intelligent species on the planet (mice were the most intelligent\0 they legged it just before the Vogons arrived.
I had to stop and consider whether a dolphin can be said to 'leg it', but in this case a metaphorical intent is plain ...
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
What utter rubbish.
I made quite clear I supported Hillary over Trump in 2016 unlike the late missed Plato when she was here at the time.
However a 40 mile armed Russian convoy is advancing on Kyiv, it is naive to think that the war in Ukraine is over when it has barely just begun
“Doing a Plato” is an analogy. This is nothing to do with US politics..,
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
It’s just sad to watch.
There is currently a 40 mile long convoy of Russian tanks and troops advancing on Kyiv.
Far more important stuff going on today than politics, and it’s almost impossible to know what voting patterns will be like in two years when there’s so much up in the air, but it remains astonishing to me how much of a blind spot this site has on the PM. Go and look at what was being said in late 2019 - it’s the same. I don’t think his goose has been cooked yet - though I do think Starmer has managed a “reverse Corbyn” and will come out of a Russia crisis looking like a possible PM.
Also, can dogmatic remainers and dogmatic leavers stop trying to make points about which of the U.K. and EU is “doing more”? The real truth here is that the external threat has made us forget our petty differences and we can only hope we’ll resolve the issues between us in three minutes flat when we have five minutes in a month or two, as we work to rebuild NATO and the Western alliance.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 1h A No Fly Zone enforced by NATO is an act of war that could *easily start A NUCLEAR WAR*. It is INSANE & coming from many of the same people who gave us Iraq/Afghan disasters. People who suggest it/similar shd be nowhere near power. Make your voice heard today
This is an example of the phenomenon I was warning about earlier. There is a vast amount of momentum in support of Ukraine. However, it is taking the form of a campaign that seeks to force governments in to doing things that escalate the conflict, and do not resolve it.
The only way to resolve the conflict is to escalate it until Russia is defeated.
The only alternative is appeasement and let Russia take whatever they want.
Some idealised version of "de-escalation" is off there in the land of unicorns and rainbows along with unilateral nuclear disarmament, which Ukraine of course did.
I am absolutely in agreement with the "fight now" school of thought, in relation to Putin. However, tactics come in to play. Putin is saying that we started the war, and also that we are the aggressor. This is absurd. But every wild, unfiltered, statement by a western politician on twitter feeds this narrative, until it starts to look to an outsider like Russia have a point, and the west really do want to annihilate Russia. Then we lose the high ground, are in to a 'two sides' problem.
Tactically it is far better to isolate and starve the bear, than fight it whilst it thinks it is winning. It is a long game and won't be over in a week.
He won't be defeated militarily. We aren't going to go and occupy St Petersburg and Moscow and Vladivostok.
So he has to be contained militarily at the lowest possible cost to us, and maximum possible cost to him, while he is defeated economically and socially.
That was the whole Cold War strategy (which took ~40 years).
St Pete's is a possibility.
It's always been a very 'european' city. We'd probably have quite a few of the locals on our side, a factor which Putin might acknowledge as making a bit of a difference.
So what is the future for Russia - should the west 'win'? Is Russia a nation state? What, in an ideal world, would we do with it? There's probably bits of it which might want to be independent - possibly few or none of them terribly viable or helpful to the west. Do we just put them back where they were and say 'don't do it again'? Because I can't really think of anything else. I can see a future in which the Ukraine and Belarus join the west. Could Russia join the west? Would we want it to? Would we trust it? Is it just too big?
Optimistic reading is that this is Russia's Suez, or (perhaps closer to the truth) Algeria. A post -imperial moment where it is forced to come to terms with its relative decline and give up an empire. Britain and France have had to go through this very painful process (and Zemmour in France and elements of the far right in the UK show we're not completely over it yet), but have done so while remaining important and economically successful world players.
OK - so which bits of its empire does it give up? Ukraine, obviously. Though even here things are not clear cut - Crimea appeared content to be Russian last time I heard. Belarus, I think. Transdniestria, however it is spelled? (Interestingly for fans of linguistics, its Russian name translates as 'Cisdniestria'). South Ossetia? Chechenya? Kaliningrad?
You could theoretically end up with a patchwork of hundreds of little countries. Though I suspect there would be majorities for remaining Russian in most places.
I’m also getting increasingly worried about the head of steam that seems to have built, especially in Europe (less so the US). People need to cool it.
Speak softly and carry a big stick. Let Russia run out of cash, fuel and tanks, and the will to fight. It was working quite well. Stay on the moral high ground and try to get China on side.
The ramping up of WW3 rhetoric might cause a rallying to the flag in Russia. Has happened several times in Iran in response to Western pressure.
My brother is the same.
But I think it's too late. The escalation is occurring. That's in large measure because Russian forces are not succeeding on the ground and the more they escalate the style of campaign the more our horror turns to indignation and then to action. Russian forces have gone from waltzing in as apparent liberators now to carpet bombing.
Surely we have little choice? We cannot sit back and let this deranged lunatic annihilate a country just because he shouts at us not to get involved. Perhaps I'm wrong and we just sit on our hands and let him do it. Let him destroy an entire country. But he won't stop there.
Europe has irrevocably altered.
I don't think we have a choice but to face him down. He's not going to stop here. And it would embolden others (like China) if we didn't.
The alternative is all of Eastern Europe falls and we're subject to permanent geopolitical blackmail across Europe and the World by authoritarian states.
I said this a few days ago and was called a moron. Funny how the zeitgeist has shifted.
Not for me or the majority of public opinion, if the latest polls are to believed, it hasn't.
To be fair you are very very dove like and cautious! Maybe that's not a bad thing but you've also been saying that you feel it in your bones that things are going to get better which they clearly aren't. (Eeek I now have the bloody D:Ream song playing in my head.)
The fact is that the situation has evolved. Putin sickeningly is doing the unthinkable. He has gone full tonto. We have to stop him.
My point was not that I felt in general that things were much better, but that the nuclear danger has been slightly lower since Lukashenko somehow intervened and started talks. I still feel that.
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman@Mij_EuropeSenior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain
This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Whereas we are avoiding taking Ukrainians because of the off-chance they may possibly be Russian.
It's a ridiculous situation. The potential risks, such as they are, are not sufficient to the harm of turning away or not accepting genuine refugees. That calculation is always present with such policies to a degree, but this is an acute situation.
I'm getting disturbed by all this talk of "escalation". COVID has affected us all, but I can't see what the practical route is here. And there seems a touching certainty that Putin will automatically be replaced by something better. I don't think that's nailed on. The whole thing needs the greatest care. I hope we are talking with the Chinese.
@BartholomewRoberts is about to lay out his blueprint for the escalation. I am very much looking forward to seeing it. .
Pretty much what the West is doing.
Keep increasing the economic pressure and isolation on Russia.
Cut them off from international finance.
Abuse the fact they were dumb enough to stash their wealth in the West be seizing or freezing it.
Cut them off from all international sport, apartheid South Africa style.
Help ensure the rouble collapses.
Ensure this hurts both ordinary Russians and oligarchs alike raising the pressure for protests or revolt, from either the public or the elite.
All while continuing to provide as much support as possible to the Ukrainian resistance.
No matter how powerful it supposedly is, a country that can't pay it's soldiers won't win a war.
Apologies if I've missed anything out, but that's the gist.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
I'm getting disturbed by all this talk of "escalation". COVID has affected us all, but I can't see what the practical route is here. And there seems a touching certainty that Putin will automatically be replaced by something better. I don't think that's nailed on. The whole thing needs the greatest care. I hope we are talking with the Chinese.
@BartholomewRoberts is about to lay out his blueprint for the escalation. I am very much looking forward to seeing it. .
Pretty much what the West is doing.
Keep increasing the economic pressure and isolation on Russia.
Cut them off from international finance.
Abuse the fact they were dumb enough to stash their wealth in the West be seizing or freezing it.
Cut them off from all international sport, apartheid South Africa style.
Help ensure the rouble collapses.
Ensure this hurts both ordinary Russians and oligarchs alike raising the pressure for protests or revolt, from either the public or the elite.
All while continuing to provide as much support as possible to the Ukrainian resistance.
No matter how powerful it supposedly is, a country that can't pay it's soldiers won't win a war.
Apologies if I've missed anything out, but that's the gist.
Not paying Russia USD1bn a day for hydrocarbons might help?
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
A bit skeptical is putting it mildly.
Regretfully I don't think people like Putin ever face justice. We can but hope that at least he can lose power though.
True. But the likes of Putin also rarely get a peaceful retirement. One day he’s going to be shot by the next guy and I suspect he knows that. It’s like the mafia.
I'm getting disturbed by all this talk of "escalation". COVID has affected us all, but I can't see what the practical route is here. And there seems a touching certainty that Putin will automatically be replaced by something better. I don't think that's nailed on. The whole thing needs the greatest care. I hope we are talking with the Chinese.
@BartholomewRoberts is about to lay out his blueprint for the escalation. I am very much looking forward to seeing it. .
Apologies if I've missed anything out
I'm afraid you have.
We have to get involved militarily. We need to get tough with this mother-fucker even if, yes, that risks the worst.
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
What utter rubbish.
I made quite clear I supported Hillary over Trump in 2016 unlike the late missed Plato when she was here at the time.
However a 40 mile armed Russian convoy is advancing on Kyiv, it is naive to think that the war in Ukraine is over when it has barely just begun
“Doing a Plato” is an analogy. This is nothing to do with US politics..,
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
It’s just sad to watch.
There is currently a 40 mile long convoy of Russian tanks and troops advancing on Kyiv.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops to Ukraine or launch airstrikes on Russian forces in Ukraine.
There is support for economic sanctions on Russia which Biden has implemented as has Boris and the EU but nothing beyond that
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
He is calmly backing
- The most comprehensive package of economic sanctions against a country I have ever heard of. - Getting remarkable unanimity on this How much the pressure on Germany to drop Nord Stream 2 from the US, for example, effected things is unknown, but.... - Got the whole of NATO and the associates (Sweden and Finland) signing from the same hymn sheet.
How much of this is down to Biden, I don't know. But if it hadn't happened, he would be catching a massive chunk of the blame... so....
Starting WWIII won't actually improve things for the Ukrainians. Collapsing the Russian economy so they can't afford a war in Ukraine, might.
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
What utter rubbish.
I made quite clear I supported Hillary over Trump in 2016 unlike the late missed Plato when she was here at the time.
However a 40 mile armed Russian convoy is advancing on Kyiv, it is naive to think that the war in Ukraine is over when it has barely just begun
“Doing a Plato” is an analogy. This is nothing to do with US politics..,
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
It’s just sad to watch.
There is currently a 40 mile long convoy of Russian tanks and troops advancing on Kyiv.
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
What utter rubbish.
I made quite clear I supported Hillary over Trump in 2016 unlike the late missed Plato when she was here at the time.
However a 40 mile armed Russian convoy is advancing on Kyiv, it is naive to think that the war in Ukraine is over when it has barely just begun
“Doing a Plato” is an analogy. This is nothing to do with US politics..,
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
It’s just sad to watch.
There is currently a 40 mile long convoy of Russian tanks and troops advancing on Kyiv.
Putin has lost this already. Just about how it ends now.
The trouble is he has massive weaponry.
Indeed, all he has mainly sent in so far is conscripts with limited air support.
Most of the elite Russian troops have not been sent to Kyiv. If it does not fall within a week they will be after a massive aerial bombing campaign and supported by heavy artillery and Russian tanks.
It is not over by any means, in reality the war has barely begun
Do you still believe in the myth of the invincibility of the Russian military after what we've seen?
As I said so far it is mainly conscripts who have been doing the fighting, the full scale of the Russian military has yet to be engaged
This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
The B-team line is Russian propaganda (why are they doing so badly). It’s a lie. Just like the whole NATO provoking them line.
I fear our friend @HYUFD may be in the process of doing a Plato
What utter rubbish.
I made quite clear I supported Hillary over Trump in 2016 unlike the late missed Plato when she was here at the time.
However a 40 mile armed Russian convoy is advancing on Kyiv, it is naive to think that the war in Ukraine is over when it has barely just begun
“Doing a Plato” is an analogy. This is nothing to do with US politics..,
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
It’s just sad to watch.
There is currently a 40 mile long convoy of Russian tanks and troops advancing on Kyiv.
Until this war started I was watching a lot of GB News because I agreed with their stance on the Woke stuff. Stopped watching now because I don't like their attitude on Putin and Russia.
Somebody on Twitter this morning claims they are owned/funded by Gazprom
Lots of rethinking going on at both ends of the spectrum. Finnish opinion polls suggest a complete reversal of attitudes to NATO from solid opposition to solid support. Swedish polls also moving that way. Here, the Morning Star is highlighting campaigners' claims of Russian use of illegal cluster munitions. Sabine Wageknecht, who leads the communist wing of Die Linke in Germany, has apologised for mistakenly thinking that Putin wouldn't invade and says she is rethinking her attitude towards Russia. And so on across the continent. A side-effect of all this may be a pretty broad consensus across Western Europe on the need for solid defence policies. Not quite what Putin had in mind, I imagine.
UK Green Party policy is, I believe, to leave NATO.
Point of information: there is no such thing as a UK Green Party. There are 3 parties: E&W, NI and S.
And all three want to leave NATO....
It is the word “Party” which is incongruous… and redundant.
"The Green Party, also known as the Green Party UK, was a Green political party in the United Kingdom.
Prior to 1985 it was called the Ecology Party, and before that PEOPLE. In 1990, it separated into three political parties:
the Green Party of England and Wales
the Scottish Greens
the Green Party Northern Ireland
Despite the UK Green Party no longer existing as an entity, "Green Party" (singular) is still used colloquially to refer collectively to the three separate parties; for example, in the reporting of opinion polls and election results." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_(UK)
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There’s not a meaningful difference between economic sanctions and military action. Both ruin the lives or innocent civilians - if anything military action is less damaging to innocent civilians.
Squeeze hard enough economically and you get the same risk of ww3 as you would do enforcing a no fly zone. People are fooling themselves if they think economic sanctions are without risk.
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
A bit skeptical is putting it mildly.
Regretfully I don't think people like Putin ever face justice. We can but hope that at least he can lose power though.
True. But the likes of Putin also rarely get a peaceful retirement. One day he’s going to be shot by the next guy and I suspect he knows that. It’s like the mafia.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
As painful as it is the west simply can’t afford to take that chance .
If NATO gets involved then that escalates the situation ten fold .
We’d all love it to wipe out that convoy but gambling with an extinction level event I’m afraid is not a gamble that any western leader should contemplate .
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
No, the purpose of the nuclear deterrent is to never use nuclear weapons.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There does appear to be an increasing plea from Ukraine and others and It cannot be ruled out that sometime something will happen that precipitates the confrontation
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
What can you expect from a population that has been bombarded with propaganda to the effect that climate change and covid are the main threats to their lives?
Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman@Mij_EuropeSenior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain
This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦
I thought it was countries that offered passports.
Is this someone freelancing, or have they consulted properly?
It's important that our actions stay on the right side of 'not starting war with Russia'.
No fly zones sound benign to a layperson, but are in fact a military promise to shoot down as many Russian planes as necessary. That is how you start a nuclear war and journalists should be careful.
Where we can do more is further sanctions, asset freezes and forfeitures. That is an area where the UK can have a big impact with the levels of Russian investment in London. My sense is we've only scratched the surface so far.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
The Government doesn’t actually have to follow the polls you know, especially on matters of right and wrong. And as we were all explaining to you last night, if NATO’s eastern flank is attacked then we will literally be attacked too because of the battle groups.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
No, the purpose of the nuclear deterrent is to never use nuclear weapons.
Yes obviously but if you are never prepared to use it, and the others know that, it's not a deterrent.
They have to know that you would, albeit in extremis, use is. Otherwise it's a useless lump of metallic objects.
"Today, some French minister has said that they declared an economic war on Russia. Watch your tongue, gentlemen! And don’t forget that in human history, economic wars quite often turned into real ones"
They're really running out of inflammatory language to ramp up.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There won't.
Wait and see.
Been here before several times. Same happened with the Falklands.
As this escalates and our media gets ramped, so will the clamour for greater involvement.
And that's good because we cannot let Putin get away with this. We need to defend Ukraine. Now.
It's important that our actions stay on the right side of 'not starting war with Russia'.
No fly zones sound benign to a layperson, but are in fact a military promise to shoot down as many Russian planes as necessary. That is how you start a nuclear war and journalists should be careful.
Where we can do more is further sanctions, asset freezes and forfeitures. That is an area where the UK can have a big impact with the levels of Russian investment in London. My sense is we've only scratched the surface so far.
Yes. The vast numbers of Russians in West London does make the excuse that we can't let Ukrainians in in case they turn out to be Russian sleepers a bit of a curious argument.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There won't.
Wait and see.
Been here before several times. Same happened with the Falklands.
As this escalates and our media gets ramped, so will the clamour for greater involvement.
And that's good because we cannot let Putin get away with this. We need to defend Ukraine. Now.
More government support for Liz Truss “unofficial” British Expeditionary Force of fighters in Ukraine - though you should only consider it if you feel trained enough.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
It's important that our actions stay on the right side of 'not starting war with Russia'.
No fly zones sound benign to a layperson, but are in fact a military promise to shoot down as many Russian planes as necessary. That is how you start a nuclear war and journalists should be careful.
Where we can do more is further sanctions, asset freezes and forfeitures. That is an area where the UK can have a big impact with the levels of Russian investment in London. My sense is we've only scratched the surface so far.
Yes. To be responsible, the likes of the BBC need to do a primer on folk for what a no fly zone is. You shoot down aircraft, you suppress air defences. You are an active participant. We’ve been able to do them in other places with impunity because they weren’t peer threats.
UPDATE — Polish President Duda just said: "We are not going to send any [fighter] jets to the Ukrainian airspace" because "that would suggest an open military interference in the Ukrainian conflict." NATO is not a party to this conflict, Duda said.
*good news story amidst the most depressing news story of my entire life “Zelenskyy thanks Duke and Duchess of Cambridge for their support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has thanked Prince William and Kate Middleton for their support at this "crucial time" in the Russian invasion. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge had earlier shared a message of support with the Ukrainian people, who are fiercely opposing Putin's army. Mr Zelenskyy said: "Olena and I are grateful to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge that, at this crucial time, when Ukraine is courageously opposing Russia's invasion, they stand by our country and support our brave citizens.”
The war is building into a massacre of Ukrainian civilians. It is proof how desparate the Russian side now is. They are pushing on all fronts and sadly they are making progress just through simple savagery. However this is a very short window. The inability of Russia to pay for anything will impact their fighting capability, but not overnight or even in a few days. The Ukrainian army and state needs to survive for weeks or even months and feeding the cities will become a problem. Only if they can stand firm will the Russian attack abate and it is asking a lot. We are entering a point of maximum danger for the Ukrainians and the Russian high command will do to Kharkiv or Kyiv what they already did to Grozny and Aleppo. War crimes indictments will surely follow.
This marks a comprehensive break between the West and the current form of Russia. These are not sanctions, they mark the utter shunning of Russia in every single sphere of contact. The reputation of Russia and the Russians has been totally trashed and, even if the war stops tomorrow, the change in perception will be lasting.
Johnson is arriving in Tallinn later today, but I am not sure calling for Putin´s head is such a good move. Even those who also want him gone in the regime won´t want to be pushed around so obviously, so it is likely to be counter productive, even though it is now quite clear that VVP is not a man we can do (any) business with.
Now the tide has gone out, at least we now know who picked the wrong side: Farage, Salmond, Trump, various Tories and many others. I said that the day of reckoning would be delayed until the crisis cools, but when that happens, the reckoning should be sure and complete.
In the meantime, Happy St. David´s Day!
War crime indictments didn’t follow after Grozny or Aleppo did they? I’m a bit skeptical that they would now, unless Ukrainians being ‘people like us’ makes a difference. The only way Putin will face justice is at the hands of Russians.
There was some threadbare legal coverage for those, though, as they were internal conflicts, and in the latter case Putin was invited in by the Assad regime. And as both Assad and Putin remain in power, investigation is complicated.
Ukraine has the additional factor of being a clear war of aggression. I'm sceptical about indictments happening any time soon, too, but that last factor does make them a bit more likely in practical terms, particularly if Ukraine does not end up under full control of Putin.
A stark statistic (this was 2016 so dunno if this has changed)
‘In the court’s 14-year history it has only brought charges against Africans’
It may have been a predecessor court, but didn’t a bunch of Serbs get prosecuted?
Seems that Putin didn't invest in one of the most underrated and necessary aspects of warfare: Logistics corps
There were some interesting things on that yesterday - someone posted a link to an analysis that pointed out that the efficient, anti-corruption Minister of Defence in Russia got turfed out in 2012. He had a special emphasis on logistics and stocks of weapons.
His successor is a pal of Putin and all the other thieves, right back to the beginning of Putinism.
And stealing/faking supplies for the military is one of the oldest forms of corruption.
"Today, some French minister has said that they declared an economic war on Russia. Watch your tongue, gentlemen! And don’t forget that in human history, economic wars quite often turned into real ones"
They're really running out of inflammatory language to ramp up.
Can one of our Russian speakers elucidate on the implications of the word "war"? They seem remarkably touchy about it. Are there differing levels of the word in Russian which all translate to war in English? Or are there separate words for economic and military? Or are they just bonkers?
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There won't.
Wait and see.
Been here before several times. Same happened with the Falklands.
As this escalates and our media gets ramped, so will the clamour for greater involvement.
And that's good because we cannot let Putin get away with this. We need to defend Ukraine. Now.
More government support for Liz Truss “unofficial” British Expeditionary Force of fighters in Ukraine - though you should only consider it if you feel trained enough.
Powerful speech from VDL to the EU Plt, including a clear commitment to accelerate Ukraine toward membership
Putin would piss and moan about it but it would be far harder to portray joining a political and social union as an existential threat to Russia compared to joining NATO. Of course our own useless idiots will have to reconcile their views on whether the EU is forcing its members into constructing a single military power with oppressive views on vacuum cleaners or it's a fissiparous bunch of conchies, but who cares what they think.
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There won't.
Wait and see.
Been here before several times. Same happened with the Falklands.
As this escalates and our media gets ramped, so will the clamour for greater involvement.
And that's good because we cannot let Putin get away with this. We need to defend Ukraine. Now.
More government support for Liz Truss “unofficial” British Expeditionary Force of fighters in Ukraine - though you should only consider it if you feel trained enough.
The Foreign Office website advises people against travel to the area and says: "If you travel to eastern Ukraine to fight, or to assist others engaged in the conflict, your activities may amount to offences against UK terrorism or other legislation and you could be prosecuted on your return to the UK."
Whereas the Foreign Secretary says "The people of Ukraine are fighting for freedom and democracy, not just for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe. Absolutely, if people want to support that struggle, I would support them in doing that.”
I'm getting disturbed by all this talk of "escalation". COVID has affected us all, but I can't see what the practical route is here. And there seems a touching certainty that Putin will automatically be replaced by something better. I don't think that's nailed on. The whole thing needs the greatest care. I hope we are talking with the Chinese.
@BartholomewRoberts is about to lay out his blueprint for the escalation. I am very much looking forward to seeing it. .
Pretty much what the West is doing.
Keep increasing the economic pressure and isolation on Russia.
Cut them off from international finance.
Abuse the fact they were dumb enough to stash their wealth in the West be seizing or freezing it.
Cut them off from all international sport, apartheid South Africa style.
Help ensure the rouble collapses.
Ensure this hurts both ordinary Russians and oligarchs alike raising the pressure for protests or revolt, from either the public or the elite.
All while continuing to provide as much support as possible to the Ukrainian resistance.
No matter how powerful it supposedly is, a country that can't pay it's soldiers won't win a war.
Apologies if I've missed anything out, but that's the gist.
Not paying Russia USD1bn a day for hydrocarbons might help?
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There won't.
Wait and see.
Been here before several times. Same happened with the Falklands.
As this escalates and our media gets ramped, so will the clamour for greater involvement.
And that's good because we cannot let Putin get away with this. We need to defend Ukraine. Now.
More government support for Liz Truss “unofficial” British Expeditionary Force of fighters in Ukraine - though you should only consider it if you feel trained enough.
There is no quicker way to turn a country into a killing field that to invite random people from outside -- who could be anything from well-intentioned to nutters to wannabe gangsters -- and give them guns and ask them to start shooting.
Astonishing pressure must be on Johnson at moment. One slip from him and Biden and we are in WWIII.
For all that many of us loathe his character and his way of doing business we must put that all aside for time being and hope and pray he makes the right calls.
Media starting to call for no-fly zone. Really, really terribly dangerous times.
Which is why I think Boris Johnson: The European Tour and Liz Truss: The European Tour are enterprises fraught with danger.
I was slightly surprised when I found out how dark that song was.
The forecast is
- Overcast with heavy clouds. - Day time (and night time) temperatures may reach 10,000 degrees C. - Winds strong, with occasional gusts to Mach 1 expected.
*good news story amidst the most depressing news story of my entire life “Zelenskyy thanks Duke and Duchess of Cambridge for their support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has thanked Prince William and Kate Middleton for their support at this "crucial time" in the Russian invasion. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge had earlier shared a message of support with the Ukrainian people, who are fiercely opposing Putin's army. Mr Zelenskyy said: "Olena and I are grateful to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge that, at this crucial time, when Ukraine is courageously opposing Russia's invasion, they stand by our country and support our brave citizens.”
Zelensky’s social media team are having a bloody good war.
I mentioned it the other day, but it’s worth repeating that a lot of the sort of content that might make westerners cringe, especially from politicians with whom we don’t usually agree, is going down really well in Ukraine. Boris speaking Russian and Ukranian, and waving off a plane full of supplies, was on the national news.
It's important that our actions stay on the right side of 'not starting war with Russia'.
No fly zones sound benign to a layperson, but are in fact a military promise to shoot down as many Russian planes as necessary. That is how you start a nuclear war and journalists should be careful.
Where we can do more is further sanctions, asset freezes and forfeitures. That is an area where the UK can have a big impact with the levels of Russian investment in London. My sense is we've only scratched the surface so far.
I would not expect NATO to consider no-fly zones and similar unless it becomes really horrible eg if Russia is killing hundreds of thousands using WMD.
Seems that Putin didn't invest in one of the most underrated and necessary aspects of warfare: Logistics corps
There were some interesting things on that yesterday - someone posted a link to an analysis that pointed out that the efficient, anti-corruption Minister of Defence in Russia got turfed out in 2012. He had a special emphasis on logistics and stocks of weapons.
His successor is a pal of Putin and all the other thieves, right back to the beginning of Putinism.
And stealing/faking supplies for the military is one of the oldest forms of corruption.
It has to be one of the prime reasons for the slowness of their advance.
Grant Shapps announces that the UK is the first nation to pass into law a total ban on all ships with any Russian connections from entering our ports
Russian owned? Russian flagged? Russian crewed?
Any Russian connection
The usual collection of tankers and cargo ships out the window, waiting for a space at Fawley or Southampton, is currently being approached by HMS Richmond.
The tankers waiting appear to be registered in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malta, the Marshall Islands (three), Cyprus, Italy, and one unknown. Round the corner there’s another one from Cyprus, and Malta, plus Denmark.
*good news story amidst the most depressing news story of my entire life “Zelenskyy thanks Duke and Duchess of Cambridge for their support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has thanked Prince William and Kate Middleton for their support at this "crucial time" in the Russian invasion. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge had earlier shared a message of support with the Ukrainian people, who are fiercely opposing Putin's army. Mr Zelenskyy said: "Olena and I are grateful to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge that, at this crucial time, when Ukraine is courageously opposing Russia's invasion, they stand by our country and support our brave citizens.”
I expect the Sussexes are seething their message was ignored and Zelensky only acknowledged the Cambridges' message
I'm exceedingly glad we don't have Donald Trump at the helm but I have zero confidence in Joe Biden I'm afraid.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
There is no appetite in the majority of the population of any western nation to send troops
Yet.
But there will be ...
There won't.
Wait and see.
Been here before several times. Same happened with the Falklands.
As this escalates and our media gets ramped, so will the clamour for greater involvement.
And that's good because we cannot let Putin get away with this. We need to defend Ukraine. Now.
More government support for Liz Truss “unofficial” British Expeditionary Force of fighters in Ukraine - though you should only consider it if you feel trained enough.
The Foreign Office website advises people against travel to the area and says: "If you travel to eastern Ukraine to fight, or to assist others engaged in the conflict, your activities may amount to offences against UK terrorism or other legislation and you could be prosecuted on your return to the UK."
Whereas the Foreign Secretary says "The people of Ukraine are fighting for freedom and democracy, not just for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe. Absolutely, if people want to support that struggle, I would support them in doing that.”
Joined up thinking!
“May” is doing a lot there. And this is why ministers should dodge the question. In principle it’s fine, but if you get sucked into certain types of action it would not be fine. And as Private Smith of the international brigade in someone else’s war for national survival, you don’t really get to decide what you are and are not asked to do.
Comments
We cannot let Putin get away with this. He is crushing an entire people and place and if we don't stand up to him now it will be the next country and the next and the next.
If it risks a nuclear escalation, then that's the price we have to pay.
Whilst this is all going on we should be doing everything possible to assassinate him. Remove Putin and we can breathe. No one is saying we'll suddenly lurch into a sunlit Russian meadow but we won't be dealing with a man who has literally gone mad.
You are citing Putin’s talking points. May be you find them convincing, May be you agree with them. You are not done Russian troll - you’ve earned the right to say what you think.
It’s just sad to watch.
Putin is wholly to blame, but strategic discussions such as escalation need to be continually made by all parties, innocent or guilty.
The fact is that the situation has evolved. Putin sickeningly is doing the unthinkable. He has gone full tonto. We have to stop him.
Plus there are a whole set of people who you want to know that when things go bad someone in the EU will find them a suitable job so you don't need to accept that offer from North Korea's nuclear program.
A Russain missile has just hit the main administrative building in Kharkiv too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877
I am afraid the siege of the Ukranian capital has only just begun. I do not welcome that but that is the reality
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60571884
Also, can dogmatic remainers and dogmatic leavers stop trying to make points about which of the U.K. and EU is “doing more”? The real truth here is that the external threat has made us forget our petty differences and we can only hope we’ll resolve the issues between us in three minutes flat when we have five minutes in a month or two, as we work to rebuild NATO and the Western alliance.
Ukraine, obviously. Though even here things are not clear cut - Crimea appeared content to be Russian last time I heard.
Belarus, I think.
Transdniestria, however it is spelled? (Interestingly for fans of linguistics, its Russian name translates as 'Cisdniestria').
South Ossetia?
Chechenya?
Kaliningrad?
You could theoretically end up with a patchwork of hundreds of little countries. Though I suspect there would be majorities for remaining Russian in most places.
Keep increasing the economic pressure and isolation on Russia.
Cut them off from international finance.
Abuse the fact they were dumb enough to stash their wealth in the West be seizing or freezing it.
Cut them off from all international sport, apartheid South Africa style.
Help ensure the rouble collapses.
Ensure this hurts both ordinary Russians and oligarchs alike raising the pressure for protests or revolt, from either the public or the elite.
All while continuing to provide as much support as possible to the Ukrainian resistance.
No matter how powerful it supposedly is, a country that can't pay it's soldiers won't win a war.
Apologies if I've missed anything out, but that's the gist.
I don't think he's showing a sure or statesmanlike touch. And I don't believe that he would ever use a nuclear weapon which, whilst none of us would ever want, totally defeats the purpose of deterrent.
I remember the Cold War. We stood up to these bullies then, we have to do so again. It's time to get tough. Just as we maintained a corridor into Berlin, we need to do the same for Ukraine.
Standing back and doing nothing militarily is a dereliction of our duty to fellow human beings.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/ukraine-chip-shortage-neon
Not economic or politically.
We have to get involved militarily. We need to get tough with this mother-fucker even if, yes, that risks the worst.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560
Hope they remembered the blue and yellow paint.
Good move though.
There is support for economic sanctions on Russia which Biden has implemented as has Boris and the EU but nothing beyond that
This is my hope for the future where we all work together
But there will be ...
- The most comprehensive package of economic sanctions against a country I have ever heard of.
- Getting remarkable unanimity on this How much the pressure on Germany to drop Nord Stream 2 from the US, for example, effected things is unknown, but....
- Got the whole of NATO and the associates (Sweden and Finland) signing from the same hymn sheet.
How much of this is down to Biden, I don't know. But if it hadn't happened, he would be catching a massive chunk of the blame... so....
Starting WWIII won't actually improve things for the Ukrainians. Collapsing the Russian economy so they can't afford a war in Ukraine, might.
Squeeze hard enough economically and you get the same risk of ww3 as you would do enforcing a no fly zone. People are fooling themselves if they think economic sanctions are without risk.
If NATO gets involved then that escalates the situation ten fold .
We’d all love it to wipe out that convoy but gambling with an extinction level event I’m afraid is not a gamble that any western leader should contemplate .
Quite a bit of which has, of course, been inspired by the Russians and their internet troll farms.
Let’s all unite against the common enemy, now that it’s plain to see who that enemy is.
Even only 38% of British voters want British military action to defend Poland if Russia attacks it, only 8% higher than the number who want military action to defend Ukraine
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/31/eurotrack-russian-invasion-ukraine-seen-likely-few
Meanwhile there are lots of people ready to sign up and help Ukraine, including ex British soldiers.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563685/British-Lads-Army-volunteers-head-Ukrainian-embassy-sign-fight-Putin.html
This will without a single shadow of doubt increase and escalate.
The idea that we are militarily detached and remain pure and outside is fantasy. We're already in it.
Is this someone freelancing, or have they consulted properly?
Slight feel of the fighter aircraft thing.
Interesting idea, though.
No fly zones sound benign to a layperson, but are in fact a military promise to shoot down as many Russian planes as necessary. That is how you start a nuclear war and journalists should be careful.
Where we can do more is further sanctions, asset freezes and forfeitures. That is an area where the UK can have a big impact with the levels of Russian investment in London. My sense is we've only scratched the surface so far.
They have to know that you would, albeit in extremis, use is. Otherwise it's a useless lump of metallic objects.
https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1498619523045511168
"Today, some French minister has said that they declared an economic war on Russia. Watch your tongue, gentlemen! And don’t forget that in human history, economic wars quite often turned into real ones"
They're really running out of inflammatory language to ramp up.
Been here before several times. Same happened with the Falklands.
As this escalates and our media gets ramped, so will the clamour for greater involvement.
And that's good because we cannot let Putin get away with this. We need to defend Ukraine. Now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60555451
We have other, more important things, to bring to the table. You are even more obsessed about Greta and climate change than Leon is with Brexit
Get some perspective please!
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk-intelligence-indicates-russian-advance-on-kyiv-has-made-little-progress/ar-AAUrYzh?ocid=entnewsntp
Seems that Putin didn't invest in one of the most underrated and necessary aspects of warfare: Logistics corps
There does seem to be an absence of nuclear war, though. Which is nice.
I think we should leave starting the nuclear war, to at least the weekend.
"Does anybody know how long till World War 3? I wanna know, I've gotta book me holidee"
I was slightly surprised when I found out how dark that song was.
“Zelenskyy thanks Duke and Duchess of Cambridge for their support
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has thanked Prince William and Kate Middleton for their support at this "crucial time" in the Russian invasion.
The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge had earlier shared a message of support with the Ukrainian people, who are fiercely opposing Putin's army.
Mr Zelenskyy said: "Olena and I are grateful to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge that, at this crucial time, when Ukraine is courageously opposing Russia's invasion, they stand by our country and support our brave citizens.”
His successor is a pal of Putin and all the other thieves, right back to the beginning of Putinism.
And stealing/faking supplies for the military is one of the oldest forms of corruption.
They seem remarkably touchy about it.
Are there differing levels of the word in Russian which all translate to war in English? Or are there separate words for economic and military?
Or are they just bonkers?
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158
The Foreign Office website advises people against travel to the area and says: "If you travel to eastern Ukraine to fight, or to assist others engaged in the conflict, your activities may amount to offences against UK terrorism or other legislation and you could be prosecuted on your return to the UK."
Whereas the Foreign Secretary says "The people of Ukraine are fighting for freedom and democracy, not just for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe. Absolutely, if people want to support that struggle, I would support them in doing that.”
Joined up thinking!
In Johnson's case, Kipling and Nazanin say hello.
It'll save on the dry cleaning.
- Overcast with heavy clouds.
- Day time (and night time) temperatures may reach 10,000 degrees C.
- Winds strong, with occasional gusts to Mach 1 expected.
I mentioned it the other day, but it’s worth repeating that a lot of the sort of content that might make westerners cringe, especially from politicians with whom we don’t usually agree, is going down really well in Ukraine. Boris speaking Russian and Ukranian, and waving off a plane full of supplies, was on the national news.
Would be very very high risk indeed.
The tankers waiting appear to be registered in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malta, the Marshall Islands (three), Cyprus, Italy, and one unknown. Round the corner there’s another one from Cyprus, and Malta, plus Denmark.