General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command, says continued Russian aggression may result in no fly zones, conceding that this could mean war with Russia
Very eminent, but retired. I'd be absolutely astonished (and pretty terrified) if NATO actually tried this on.
Quite apart from anything else, I'm assuming that the alliance would seek unanimity, and such a madcap enterprise would therefore be blocked by the more cautious powers. Certainly Hungary, and almost certainly Germany as well, for starters.
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
Thankfully, and to my surprise, it seems that Western leaders are made of sterner stuff than you are. I had never had you marked down as an appeaser.
Are they? I am certainly not 100% certain Biden, Macron and Johnson would go to war with Russia even if Putin went beyond Ukraine and invaded Poland and the Baltic States.
If he invaded France and Germany they would have no choice but to go to war but beyond that you cannot be certain.
I also doubt Biden would launch a nuclear weapon against Russia himself unless a US city was attacked. The same goes for Boris unless London was attacked or Macron unless Paris was attacked
Unlike some of the more learned members here, I was not alive and creating memories in the 80s. How does this compare? I assume that it's a decent few steps below, but have no real yardstick.
People were worried about nuclear attacks in the first half of the 80s, but the second half of the decade and most of the 90s were very relaxed and happy by comparison with most other periods.
In 1962 my wife and I lived in daily fear of a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis
It was horrible then and is today
While I wasn’t alive then, I did study the Cuban missile crisis in university.
I think the current situation is actually more serious than back then.
Cool heads are required.
It was more difficult to live with back then. Two nuclear bombs had been used relatively recently. Missiles were new and omnipotent unstoppable technology. Warheads had been developed with more destructive power and produced in numbers. It was new and gave us a whole different reality to assimilate.
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
Thankfully, and to my surprise, it seems that Western leaders are made of sterner stuff than you are. I had never had you marked down as an appeaser.
He actually has quite a consistent attitude to democracy and self-determination . See all his comments about Scottish referenda.
"And here’s where it’s beginning to trickle (or rather, pour) down on average Russians: As of tomorrow, Sberbank is raising mortgage rates on homes (both finished and under construction) by 7.5% to 18.6%.
This is Putin’s new economy. This will be his legacy."
Who will own the mortgages when Sberbank defaults?
General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command, says continued Russian aggression may result in no fly zones, conceding that this could mean war with Russia
Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.
From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.
What do you find attractive about Hunt, politically speaking?
He is a former Remainer, he's a grown up, he flies peasant class (once in the seat Infront of me as it happens) and most important of all he is not Johnson.
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
One of the reasons WWII came about is that Hitler became used to Britain and France rolling over and not standing by their previous commitments. At the beginning, when he abrogated Versailles by sending the German Army into the Rhineland, he was worried we would force him to back down, but when we declared war on him over Poland he was surprised, because he'd learnt by our earlier actions not to take our commitments seriously.
If we abandon Eastern Europe to Russia it will teach Russia the lesson that we can be bullied and that we will not stand up for our allies, or our interests. So why would they think we would start to do so when they start to bully us in Western Europe? It would actually make WWIII more likely as a result.
I agree with HY about the necessity of avoiding become directly embroiled in Ukraine, but I also agree with practically everyone else about the need to draw a line in the sand over the NATO alliance. It's a key reason why this show of disgust over Ukraine and the imposition of sweeping sanctions now is so important.
It will hopefully discourage Mad Vlad from making more territorial demands, this time by shedding crocodile tears over oppressed Russians in the Baltic States.
I've entertained the possibility of building a physical wall right across the continent of Europe when the carve up (hopefully with Ukraine on our side of it) is eventually done, and I know that's probably wildly impractical but some kind of obvious barrier would serve an important purpose. To demonstrate to the Russians the limits of their power that we will accept and respect - but also to say thus far and no further. Our side is Europe and they can keep their filthy hands off it. Permanently.
Not a good solution for a free world.
Last person to suggest this was The Donald. Creating barriers increases division in the long run.
General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command, says continued Russian aggression may result in no fly zones, conceding that this could mean war with Russia
They're never going to do that. Biden's spokeswoman has explicitly said as much today.
They're responding to Putin's bluster, reminding him that stakes can be raised on both sides, even though neither intends to go that far. Unless he personally has literally gone insane he has already raised the stakes as high as he can without involving NATO directly - that is presumably why the EU and NATO have responded with unusual speed, because he finally pushed them all too far, and so his threats to go further won't work unless he can convince them he is mad, and opens them up to threaten in turn.
General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command, says continued Russian aggression may result in no fly zones, conceding that this could mean war with Russia
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
One of the reasons WWII came about is that Hitler became used to Britain and France rolling over and not standing by their previous commitments. At the beginning, when he abrogated Versailles by sending the German Army into the Rhineland, he was worried we would force him to back down, but when we declared war on him over Poland he was surprised, because he'd learnt by our earlier actions not to take our commitments seriously.
If we abandon Eastern Europe to Russia it will teach Russia the lesson that we can be bullied and that we will not stand up for our allies, or our interests. So why would they think we would start to do so when they start to bully us in Western Europe? It would actually make WWIII more likely as a result.
As Western Europe is 'we' ie France, Germany and the UK. Eastern Europe is not. I am not saying if Russia invaded Eastern Europe NATO would not go to War, most of those nations are now in NATO after all.
However there is still a difference between fighting for other countries against a nuclear armed military superpower which just 4 decades ago were under Russian control anyway and fighting for your own country.
Plus when we went to war with Hitler over his invasion of Poland he did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin.
In Scotland 40 years is at least 3 generations. Having nuclear weapons pointed at us isn't something that we stop for. I would rather be glass than live in a world of tyranny, subjugation, torture and no freedom.
Thinking about it, if I had 4 minutes warning I may become stained glass
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
One of the reasons WWII came about is that Hitler became used to Britain and France rolling over and not standing by their previous commitments. At the beginning, when he abrogated Versailles by sending the German Army into the Rhineland, he was worried we would force him to back down, but when we declared war on him over Poland he was surprised, because he'd learnt by our earlier actions not to take our commitments seriously.
If we abandon Eastern Europe to Russia it will teach Russia the lesson that we can be bullied and that we will not stand up for our allies, or our interests. So why would they think we would start to do so when they start to bully us in Western Europe? It would actually make WWIII more likely as a result.
I agree with HY about the necessity of avoiding become directly embroiled in Ukraine, but I also agree with practically everyone else about the need to draw a line in the sand over the NATO alliance. It's a key reason why this show of disgust over Ukraine and the imposition of sweeping sanctions now is so important.
It will hopefully discourage Mad Vlad from making more territorial demands, this time by shedding crocodile tears over oppressed Russians in the Baltic States.
I've entertained the possibility of building a physical wall right across the continent of Europe when the carve up (hopefully with Ukraine on our side of it) is eventually done, and I know that's probably wildly impractical but some kind of obvious barrier would serve an important purpose. To demonstrate to the Russians the limits of their power that we will accept and respect - but also to say thus far and no further. Our side is Europe and they can keep their filthy hands off it. Permanently.
Not a good solution for a free world.
Last person to suggest this was The Donald. Creating barriers increases division in the long run.
It won't happen, of course, but even if it did it would merely recognise the division that already exists and is unlikely ever to heal.
Russia is the empire of the despots. If we're all lucky enough to outlive Putin then the next bastard will simply rise to take his place. They've been the same since Ivan the Terrible. No attempt at meaningful reform ever endures.
Unlike some of the more learned members here, I was not alive and creating memories in the 80s. How does this compare? I assume that it's a decent few steps below, but have no real yardstick.
People were worried about nuclear attacks in the first half of the 80s, but the second half of the decade and most of the 90s were very relaxed and happy by comparison with most other periods.
In 1962 my wife and I lived in daily fear of a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis
It was horrible then and is today
While I wasn’t alive then, I did study the Cuban missile crisis in university.
I think the current situation is actually more serious than back then.
Cool heads are required.
It was more difficult to live with back then. Two nuclear bombs had been used relatively recently. Missiles were new and omnipotent unstoppable technology. Warheads had been developed with more destructive power and produced in numbers. It was new and gave us a whole different reality to assimilate.
Both sides in 62 had rational men at the head rather than in this case the RU side is led by a lunatic who may well have a mental health issue or be on medication that sends him nuts.
Unlike some of the more learned members here, I was not alive and creating memories in the 80s. How does this compare? I assume that it's a decent few steps below, but have no real yardstick.
People were worried about nuclear attacks in the first half of the 80s, but the second half of the decade and most of the 90s were very relaxed and happy by comparison with most other periods.
In 1962 my wife and I lived in daily fear of a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis
It was horrible then and is today
While I wasn’t alive then, I did study the Cuban missile crisis in university.
I think the current situation is actually more serious than back then.
Cool heads are required.
It was more difficult to live with back then. Two nuclear bombs had been used relatively recently. Missiles were new and omnipotent unstoppable technology. Warheads had been developed with more destructive power and produced in numbers. It was new and gave us a whole different reality to assimilate.
Both sides in 62 had rational men at the head rather than in this case the RU side is led by a lunatic who may well have a mental health issue or be on medication that sends him nuts.
To be fair we did not see it as a rational situation, otherwise we would not have been very scared as many are today
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
Thankfully, and to my surprise, it seems that Western leaders are made of sterner stuff than you are. I had never had you marked down as an appeaser.
Are they? I am certainly not 100% certain Biden, Macron and Johnson would go to war with Russia even if Putin went beyond Ukraine and invaded Poland and the Baltic States.
If he invaded France and Germany they would have no choice but to go to war but beyond that you cannot be certain.
I also doubt Biden would launch a nuclear weapon against Russia himself unless a US city was attacked. The same goes for Boris unless London was attacked or Macron unless Paris was attacked
You are simply an appeaser
Or hacked by a Russian troll farm...
I wonder if getting involved will make any difference to what Putin will do. If he really has gone "full tonto", for whatever reason (roids, terminal illness) would he just look for an excuse to nuke us anyway? If he wants to do it, would downing a few jets make any difference?
A conspiracy theorist could suggest that the crap performance by the military is a deliberate ploy to provide a reason to escalate, and to draw others in when the escalation happens.
I _really_ hope that we hear rumblings from the Kremlin soon. Surely they can all see where this is going.
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
Thankfully, and to my surprise, it seems that Western leaders are made of sterner stuff than you are. I had never had you marked down as an appeaser.
Are they? I am certainly not 100% certain Biden, Macron and Johnson would go to war with Russia even if Putin went beyond Ukraine and invaded Poland and the Baltic States.
If he invaded France and Germany they would have no choice but to go to war but beyond that you cannot be certain.
I also doubt Biden would launch a nuclear weapon against Russia himself unless a US city was attacked. The same goes for Boris unless London was attacked or Macron unless Paris was attacked
You don’t understand any of this. On Eastern Europe - see above re: tripwires and existing presence. On a nuclear exchange, in so far as a leader makes that choice, it’s based on seeing that a launch has happened but not knowing the target (only our sub captains, after the fact, would get to strike with hindsight).
Biden, Johnson and Macron all have nuclear bunkers to act as last resort command centres and order retaliatory strikes from. Only if Johnson was killed too would the sub commander with Trident act under the letter of last resort order.
There is also no guarantee the few thousand western NATO troops in Poland and the Baltic States would not be ordered to retreat back to reinforce the western nations if Poland and the Baltic States were invaded by the Russians
UPDATE: Regarding fighter jets for Ukraine. Initially, several reporters said the EU countries will supply fighter jets as military aid and the news got popular in Ukraine. However, Bulgaria has already refused, other countries have not confirmed. We have deleted previous tweet. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1498447849255837696
Unlike some of the more learned members here, I was not alive and creating memories in the 80s. How does this compare? I assume that it's a decent few steps below, but have no real yardstick.
People were worried about nuclear attacks in the first half of the 80s, but the second half of the decade and most of the 90s were very relaxed and happy by comparison with most other periods.
In 1962 my wife and I lived in daily fear of a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis
It was horrible then and is today
While I wasn’t alive then, I did study the Cuban missile crisis in university.
I think the current situation is actually more serious than back then.
Cool heads are required.
It was more difficult to live with back then. Two nuclear bombs had been used relatively recently. Missiles were new and omnipotent unstoppable technology. Warheads had been developed with more destructive power and produced in numbers. It was new and gave us a whole different reality to assimilate.
Both sides in 62 had rational men at the head rather than in this case the RU side is led by a lunatic who may well have a mental health issue or be on medication that sends him nuts.
An assessment that is valid in retrospect. The machinations of Soviet politburo, the alleged power struggles and health rumours left adequate uncertainty to equal the clear and obvious fact that Putin is a power drunk psychotic dictator who may be ill.
“We have no fucking clue what [Putin] will do next,” he said. “No one in the business community has a clue any more. Everyone is so depressed. I have experienced so many economic crises here, the pandemic being the latest.
“But there was always a reason to keep on fighting for your business,” he said. “Now, I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel any more. Even if peace is achieved, the damage is done. How do we reverse it?”
You know, we’re rapidly approaching the point that I want Ukraine in NATO, as should we all, not to help Ukraine but because they are hard as nails and I want them to have my back.
Which while Russia has troops in there means we are then at war with Russia, leading to WW3 and potential nuclear war
Will you change your narrative when Johnson and NATO change theirs?
They won't, we are not going to war with Russia unless they invade Poland and maybe not even then.
Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO state anyway beyond Ukraine the likeliest nation he would attack is Georgia
If Poland is invaded and NATO run away, I can safely say Putin will be emboldened. That being the case he really won't give a ****!
Poland will be defended, the Baltic States will be defended. Ukraine should be defended with a no fly zone. The consequences might be unthinkable, but that bridge needs to be crossed when it is reached.
There is zero chance of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian military and airforce already there. Even defending Poland and the Baltic States is only a 50% chance.
Western Europe's defence is guaranteed, beyond that there is no certainty
Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.
Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.
NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
One of the reasons WWII came about is that Hitler became used to Britain and France rolling over and not standing by their previous commitments. At the beginning, when he abrogated Versailles by sending the German Army into the Rhineland, he was worried we would force him to back down, but when we declared war on him over Poland he was surprised, because he'd learnt by our earlier actions not to take our commitments seriously.
If we abandon Eastern Europe to Russia it will teach Russia the lesson that we can be bullied and that we will not stand up for our allies, or our interests. So why would they think we would start to do so when they start to bully us in Western Europe? It would actually make WWIII more likely as a result.
As Western Europe is 'we' ie France, Germany and the UK. Eastern Europe is not. I am not saying if Russia invaded Eastern Europe NATO would not go to War, most of those nations are now in NATO after all.
However there is still a difference between fighting for other countries against a nuclear armed military superpower which just 4 decades ago were under Russian control anyway and fighting for your own country.
Plus when we went to war with Hitler over his invasion of Poland he did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin.
In Scotland 40 years is at least 3 generations. Having nuclear weapons pointed at us isn't something that we stop for. I would rather be glass than live in a world of tyranny, subjugation, torture and no freedom.
Thinking about it, if I had 4 minutes warning I may become stained glass
I wondered about driving to the nearest sand quarry and placing some metal panels in order to send a message in the geological record. Not sure it would work though.
Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.
From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.
What do you find attractive about Hunt, politically speaking?
He is a former Remainer, he's a grown up, he flies peasant class (once in the seat Infront of me as it happens) and most important of all he is not Johnson.
Lefties used to despise him. Is he no longer Murdoch's man?
General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command, says continued Russian aggression may result in no fly zones, conceding that this could mean war with Russia
Some rather good points here on the subject of the fact that Downing Street officials should NOT be talking about "regime change" in Russia, even if it was luckily furiously backpedalled on later. It's very likely to happen internally, which you would never advertise supporting from the outside, so there no need to use Brexit-level populist gesture politics that could be dangerous if not brought back under control.
General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command, says continued Russian aggression may result in no fly zones, conceding that this could mean war with Russia
They're never going to do that. Biden's spokeswoman has explicitly said as much today.
Fallows is a journalist who’s been around about as long as Biden (and worked for the Carter administration). I think he knows what he’s talking about here.
Some rather good points here on the subject of the fact that Johnson should *NOT* be talking about "regime change" in Russia, even if it was luckily furiously backpedalled on later. It's very likely happen internally which you would never advertise supporting from the outside, so there no need to use Brexit-level populism that could very dangerous it not brought back under control.
Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.
From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.
What do you find attractive about Hunt, politically speaking?
He is a former Remainer, he's a grown up, he flies peasant class (once in the seat Infront of me as it happens) and most important of all he is not Johnson.
Lefties used to despise him. Is he no longer Murdoch's man?
I don't think he was a good HS or FS either. He was a decent Chair of the Health Committee tbf and had a handy pandemic. I think however I have already clarified my position, "he is not Johnson".
Some rather good points here on the subject of the fact that Johnson should *NOT* be talking about "regime change" in Russia, even if it was luckily furiously backpedalled on later. It's very likely happen internally which you would never advertise supporting from the outside, so there no need to use Brexit-level populism that could very dangerous it not brought back under control.
Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.
From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.
What do you find attractive about Hunt, politically speaking?
He is a former Remainer, he's a grown up, he flies peasant class (once in the seat Infront of me as it happens) and most important of all he is not Johnson.
Lefties used to despise him. Is he no longer Murdoch's man?
He is a Tory of course, but unusually competent and sane. Not like the cabinet at all.
“Russian convoy 'stretches up to 40 miles' Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology says that earlier reports indicating the column of Russian armour advancing on Kyiv is 17 miles (27km) long are inaccurate.
The convoy actually stretches about 40 miles, according to Maxar.
The company added that new images also show ground troops and attack helicopters in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles from the Ukraine border.”
“Russian convoy 'stretches up to 40 miles' Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology says that earlier reports indicating the column of Russian armour advancing on Kyiv is 17 miles (27km) long are inaccurate.
The convoy actually stretches about 40 miles, according to Maxar.
The company added that new images also show ground troops and attack helicopters in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles from the Ukraine border.”
“Russian convoy 'stretches up to 40 miles' Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology says that earlier reports indicating the column of Russian armour advancing on Kyiv is 17 miles (27km) long are inaccurate.
The convoy actually stretches about 40 miles, according to Maxar.
The company added that new images also show ground troops and attack helicopters in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles from the Ukraine border.”
Can we not sell the Ukrainians a few A-10s?
It can only be done by the Russians to intimidate, in the expectation the Ukrainians will be bow down to such an immense force inevitably heading their way.
It may be a plan drawn up before the introduction of so much lethal defence kit into theatre. With no expectation it could ever arrive.
Ironically, it could be the ability of the Ukrainians to inflict so much damage on that convoy that causes a mad petulant Putin to nuke them, out of spite for what they have done to his army. So maybe smash up the front part guys, and let the rear two-thirds back up and go home.....
Another video of Russian soldiers in Berdyansk being told what the local populace. I feel bad for them - they saw their friends die on a liberation mission, only to arrive and be told to go home. Almost everyone involved in this war is a victim.
“Russian convoy 'stretches up to 40 miles' Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology says that earlier reports indicating the column of Russian armour advancing on Kyiv is 17 miles (27km) long are inaccurate.
The convoy actually stretches about 40 miles, according to Maxar.
The company added that new images also show ground troops and attack helicopters in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles from the Ukraine border.”
Can we not sell the Ukrainians a few A-10s?
It can only be done by the Russians to intimidate, in the expectation the Ukrainians will be bow down to such an immense force inevitably heading their way.
It may be a plan drawn up before the introduction of so much lethal defence kit into theatre. With no expectation it could ever arrive.
Ironically, it could be the ability of the Ukrainians to inflict so much damage on that convoy that causes a mad petulant Putin to nuke them, out of spite for what they have done to his army. So maybe smash up the front part guys, and let the rear two-thirds back up and go home.....
Yes, good thinking. Take out the front enough to block the road, and maybe a few other select ones (missile launchers etc), let the rest go home. No need to escalate. They clearly aren't a threat to us in any way.
It doesn't look like this is happening though. Do they have air cover against drones?
Just out of interest, I checked the Sentinel satellite images and was very surprised that they are still being made public over Ukraine. I've played with these in the past for various reasons...
This is Hostomel airfield 2 days ago using SWIR, showing the fires clearly. Obviously the US have much better satellites for surveillance and not land observation, but still...
"BREAKING - British Army warns its soldies not to go rogue and travel to Ukraine - Telegraph reports"
Unprecedented numbers of British soldiers heading out to the shops for a pack of cigs last I heard.
Heard the same today.
Second, or third, Truss misjudgment. I think she should be replaced by Mordaunt.
Not sure it's a misjudgement. Especially if Zelenskyy is intelligent enough to surround himself with the Western Special forces soldiers crossing the border. As I said as the invasion broke out, there's some people who went into elite UK units who have opted to go off the grid recently.
"BREAKING - British Army warns its soldies not to go rogue and travel to Ukraine - Telegraph reports"
Unprecedented numbers of British soldiers heading out to the shops for a pack of cigs last I heard.
Heard the same today.
Second, or third, Truss misjudgment. I think she should be replaced by Mordaunt.
Not sure it's a misjudgement. Especially if Zelenskyy is intelligent enough to surround himself with the Western Special forces soldiers crossing the border. As I said as the invasion broke out, there's some people who went into elite UK units who have opted to go off the grid recently.
The government shouldn't be providing any public encouragement to any activities like that, because it's not NATO policy.There's a pattern of her managing things ineptly, rather than through pre-meditated strategy, so I think she's too much a liability to stay, in this situation.
"BREAKING - British Army warns its soldies not to go rogue and travel to Ukraine - Telegraph reports"
Unprecedented numbers of British soldiers heading out to the shops for a pack of cigs last I heard.
Heard the same today.
Second, or third, Truss misjudgment. I think she should be replaced by Mordaunt.
Not sure it's a misjudgement. Especially if Zelenskyy is intelligent enough to surround himself with the Western Special forces soldiers crossing the border. As I said as the invasion broke out, there's some people who went into elite UK units who have opted to go off the grid recently.
But there's a pattern of her managing things ineptly, rather than through pre-meditated strategy. I just think she's too much a liability to stay, in this situation.
Oh she's blatantly using this to boost her election chances, but I'm not sure that in isolation was a mistake. If I were PM I'd be tempted to put Wallace in charge of both foreign affairs and defence; he's a highly competent minister that stands no threat of becoming leader.
"BREAKING - British Army warns its soldies not to go rogue and travel to Ukraine - Telegraph reports"
Unprecedented numbers of British soldiers heading out to the shops for a pack of cigs last I heard.
Heard the same today.
Second, or third, Truss misjudgment. I think she should be replaced by Mordaunt.
Not sure it's a misjudgement. Especially if Zelenskyy is intelligent enough to surround himself with the Western Special forces soldiers crossing the border. As I said as the invasion broke out, there's some people who went into elite UK units who have opted to go off the grid recently.
But there's a pattern of her managing things ineptly, rather than through pre-meditated strategy. I just think she's too much a liability to stay, in this situation.
Oh she's blatantly using this to boost her election chances, but I'm not sure that in isolation was a mistake. If I were PM I'd be tempted to put Wallace in charge of both foreign affairs and defence; he's a highly competent minister that stands no threat of becoming leader.
It might not have been a slip of the tongue, but it's also clearly not officially agreed NATO policy, even if not.
On Wallace, his 1853 comments were almost as inept as some of Truss's , but since then he's been better again. I agree that either him of Mordaunt would be better.
Shashank Joshi @shashj “Finnish political parties will gather on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s attack on Ukraine and Finland’s role in Europe’s new power balance. Finland’s potential NATO membership will also be on the table, Prime Minister Sanna Marin told reporters Monday.”
You'd have to be stupid to say no to NATO at this point. Get under any nuclear umbrella you can.
It seems a pretty sound calculation. If Russia will invade in part because of the prospect of NATO membership (even an unlikely prospect to say the least), then you may as well join up - Russia would be furious, but what are they going to do, invade? As they have just demonstrated they might well do if you lack membership?
At the end of the Winter War in 1940, after the Russian Goliath finally bested the Finnish David, a Soviet general was asked, well, at least we gained a lot of territory from the Finns?
And this was my point earlier today, London having this kind of finance gives us power and the structures that London has built are not easy to replicate.
And this was my point earlier today, London having this kind of finance gives us power and the structures that London has built are not easy to replicate.
Well, that's one way of looking at it ...;.)
On the oligarchs question, that's very much the kind of good news some of us were expecting earlier on. The pressure on them will soon be unbearable, and so eventually will it be on the leader, via the army also.
Re: the legitimacy of Ukrainian independence, as contested by many in Russia and a few on PB, perhaps worth pointing out that according to the Soviet Constitution of 1936"
ARTICLE 17. To every Union Republic is reserved the right freely to secede from the U.S.S.R.
Also worth noting that Ukraine was a full, separate member of the United Nations, indeed one of the founding UN members in 1945.
Re: the legitimacy of Ukrainian independence, as contested by many in Russia and a few on PB, perhaps worth pointing out that according to the Soviet Constitution of 1936"
ARTICLE 17. To every Union Republic is reserved the right freely to secede from the U.S.S.R.
Also worth noting that Ukraine was a full, separate member of the United Nations, indeed one of the founding UN members in 1945.
How's THAT for some realpolitik?
As Putin pointed out, this was all Lenin's fault, and he is going to "decommunise" them.
Re: the legitimacy of Ukrainian independence, as contested by many in Russia and a few on PB, perhaps worth pointing out that according to the Soviet Constitution of 1936"
ARTICLE 17. To every Union Republic is reserved the right freely to secede from the U.S.S.R.
Also worth noting that Ukraine was a full, separate member of the United Nations, indeed one of the founding UN members in 1945.
How's THAT for some realpolitik?
As Putin pointed out, this was all Lenin's fault, and he is going to "decommunise" them.
Funny (in a very sick way) coming from a KGB neo-commie
@ChrisMurphyCT 4/ The U.S. and allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his oligarch allies, but to seize those assets as well. This is likely a further step than Putin’s inner circle anticipated.
The well-qualified author hasn't explored the most interesting possibility here. That the Air Force don't want to get involved - so far - and through that that there's something going wrong with the entire country's command structure.
The Russian brutality in Ukraine is getting g worse. It is imperative they cannot be rewarded for this appalling war. The sanctions are working and the economic crisis in Russia will accelerate over time. We must keep up amd broaden the sanctions until full Ukrainian sovereignty is restored on the borders that were guaranteed in 1991.
The latest warnings from Moscow sound concerning in a different way. The tone of the latest statement below sounds rather like they're considering some sort of asymmetrical response on individuals or societies, possibly some form of terrorism.
"A spokesman for the country's foreign ministry said the steps the bloc has taken against it following its invasion of Ukraine, which include sanctions, will 'not go unanswered'.
It also warned that 'EU citizens and structures' involved in sending weapons to Ukraine would be 'responsible for any consequences'. "
The latest warnings from Moscow sound concerning in a different way. The tone of the latest statement below sounds rather like they're considering some sort of asymmetrical response on individuals or societies, possibly some form of terrorism.
"A spokesman for the country's foreign ministry said the steps the bloc has taken against it following its invasion of Ukraine, which include sanctions, will 'not go unanswered'.
It also warned that 'EU citizens and structures' involved in sending weapons to Ukraine would be 'responsible for any consequences'. "
When in a hole STOP. Have Russia ever supplied weapons to a third party who is in conflict with an EU member or UK or USA? They do have 100% effective blinkers.
I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
I know nothing but is their economy going to sink without trace? Their economy is mostly oil and gas, and they're still producing oil and gas. Their currency has been devalued but that doesn't destroy your economy, it makes any export industry that's still functioning more profitable. And they can still trade freely with China and India. I'm not saying it won't be bad for them but I'm not sure it's armageddon?
I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
I know nothing but is their economy going to sink without trace? Their economy is mostly oil and gas, and they're still producing oil and gas. Their currency has been devalued but that doesn't destroy your economy, it makes any export industry that's still functioning more profitable. And they can still trade freely with China and India. I'm not saying it won't be bad for them but I'm not sure it's armageddon?
The financial system is frozen and interest rates are at 20%. No business can borrow money for investment. And the massive devaluation is about to unleash a whirlwind of inflation.
I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
I know nothing but is their economy going to sink without trace? Their economy is mostly oil and gas, and they're still producing oil and gas. Their currency has been devalued but that doesn't destroy your economy, it makes any export industry that's still functioning more profitable. And they can still trade freely with China and India. I'm not saying it won't be bad for them but I'm not sure it's armageddon?
Well Germany is going to build LNG to reduce reliance on Russian gas. The question is how long that takes. Russia can't reorient its gas supplies eastwards too quickly. And of course they'll get more export earnings from the devaluation so it helps cushion the blow but my experience is that such devaluations (40%) are usually pretty terrible for an economy. Combined with 20% interest rates. Have you listened to what people in Russia have been saying? Oh and the stock market is closed for a week. The day after Brexit this is not.
Some bizarre and unhelpful ideas circulating above. Building a wall around Russia? Idiotic. Not an advertisement for the ‘free west’, and counter-productive in that experience and contact with better societies plays a key part in undermining dictatorships. Which is why it is the dictators that build walls.
I am also uneasy about banning RT, which has, or is being, done. It is not doing any demonstrable harm and we should never fear a flawed message. Again, during the Cold War it was the East that tried to jam western radio; as a child I used to pick up the news from Radio Moscow and Radio Tirana and it never did me any harm (no votes on that one pls).
In our eagerness to do everything we can other than actually fighting, let’s not lose sight of the high ground we purport to be defending.
Some bizarre and unhelpful ideas circulating above. Building a wall around Russia? Idiotic. Not an advertisement for the ‘free west’, and counter-productive in that experience and contact with better societies plays a key part in undermining dictatorships. Which is why it is the dictators that build walls.
I am also uneasy about banning RT, which has, or is being, done. It is not doing any demonstrable harm and we should never fear a flawed message. Again, during the Cold War it was the East that tried to jam western radio; as a child I used to pick up the news from Radio Moscow and Radio Tirana and it never did me any harm (no votes on that one pls).
In our eagerness to do everything we can other than actually fighting, let’s not lose sight of the high ground we purport to be defending.
The problem is our opponent is someone who had invaded a sovereign country in an attempt to conquer it and, at least, install a puppet regime. He has designs on other neighbouring states, in a vile dream to recreate 'security' for his country. He has masses of nuclear weapons. He has used chemical and nucleotide weapons in the UK
He has the will and the means to do lots of evil to the world. This has been clear for at least a decade, but we did virtually nothing each time.
So it becomes a series of questions. Do you think Putin (not Russia) needs stopping? If so, when? How?
We have very few tools in our armoury. I have been impressed by the speed, severity and unanimity of sanctions amongst western nations.
But they do not look like they are going to stop him.
Some bizarre and unhelpful ideas circulating above. Building a wall around Russia? Idiotic. Not an advertisement for the ‘free west’, and counter-productive in that experience and contact with better societies plays a key part in undermining dictatorships. Which is why it is the dictators that build walls.
I am also uneasy about banning RT, which has, or is being, done. It is not doing any demonstrable harm and we should never fear a flawed message. Again, during the Cold War it was the East that tried to jam western radio; as a child I used to pick up the news from Radio Moscow and Radio Tirana and it never did me any harm (no votes on that one pls).
In our eagerness to do everything we can other than actually fighting, let’s not lose sight of the high ground we purport to be defending.
The EU has already banned RT - in the UK the decision will be made by OFCOM not the government. So one presumes your ire is directed at the EU.
Have you listened to what people in Russia have been saying?
So I've been looking for a good source for that but I haven't found one. Occasionally I see a poll on Twitter but I don't know enough to interpret it.
The problem is that Very Online people were already strongly anti-Putin, especially English speakers. They're also the people most likely to be immediately screwed by sanctions. So I have no idea what middle-aged and elderly people who get their news from TV are saying or experiencing.
I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
I know nothing but is their economy going to sink without trace? Their economy is mostly oil and gas, and they're still producing oil and gas. Their currency has been devalued but that doesn't destroy your economy, it makes any export industry that's still functioning more profitable. And they can still trade freely with China and India. I'm not saying it won't be bad for them but I'm not sure it's armageddon?
Russia doesn't have (m)any non-commodity export industries: it's 80+% oil, coal, gas and wheat.
And don't forget that their oil industry is dependent on drilling rigs and other equipment from Western firms like Schulmberger, Baker Hughes and Halliburton.
Some bizarre and unhelpful ideas circulating above. Building a wall around Russia? Idiotic. Not an advertisement for the ‘free west’, and counter-productive in that experience and contact with better societies plays a key part in undermining dictatorships. Which is why it is the dictators that build walls.
I am also uneasy about banning RT, which has, or is being, done. It is not doing any demonstrable harm and we should never fear a flawed message. Again, during the Cold War it was the East that tried to jam western radio; as a child I used to pick up the news from Radio Moscow and Radio Tirana and it never did me any harm (no votes on that one pls).
In our eagerness to do everything we can other than actually fighting, let’s not lose sight of the high ground we purport to be defending.
The EU has already banned RT - in the UK the decision will be made by OFCOM not the government. So one presumes your ire is directed at the EU.
Well... technically the UK government's sanctions might not ban RT, but they do prevent it from paying carriage fees to Sky. Now Sky may continue out of the goodness of their hearts to carry RT (and/or may reckon that continuing to carry them will have other advantages for the Murdoch empire), but the UK government have certainly made RT's job much harder.
I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
I know nothing but is their economy going to sink without trace? Their economy is mostly oil and gas, and they're still producing oil and gas. Their currency has been devalued but that doesn't destroy your economy, it makes any export industry that's still functioning more profitable. And they can still trade freely with China and India. I'm not saying it won't be bad for them but I'm not sure it's armageddon?
The financial system is frozen and interest rates are at 20%. No business can borrow money for investment. And the massive devaluation is about to unleash a whirlwind of inflation.
I'm wondering if some people are finding it difficult to accept the enormous power that the west is still able to exert. Some are not comfortable with that. Of course Japan is included in that. Whatever the complaints people make about the west and economic power is shifting away, they know where they want their money due to the defence of property rights.
I will go further. Although Putin is facing humiliation he still has a couple of cards he can play. Firstly he can escalate the war in Ukraine and engage in atrocious bombing of civilians if he so wishes. Secondly he could launch nuclear annihilation. The second of these is unlikely but how might we try to stop the first? We could make it absolutely clear that the sanctions are not finished yet and that we are prepared to cut off the gas if he goes down the Aleppo route. The public needs to be prepared for this NOW and explain that the alternative is possibly millions of refugees. Could we encourage people to use alternative forms of energy if they have them available? Point out that the focus is on those with the broadest shoulders - the poor after all are already probably economising due to rising prices.
Secondly the west needs to send a message to the rest. If countries are not prepared to condemn Russia then we will have to consider our generosity towards them. If you want our help with covid, aid, climate change relief don't risk losing our support because the west is re-discovering itself and will not look kindly on those who do not wish to share their outrage at a government using its nuclear deterrent as a shield to destroy cities, killing and maiming thousands of people into submission. And for what? Nothing more than one deluded man's bruised pride and ego.
Please can someone paint Ukranian flags on the side of a few fighter planes, and go bomb the hell out of that convoy before they find a way through to Kiev.
We better start building a list of war criminals. Put hundreds and hundreds of names on it. Not only the top brass, but anyone who in any way continues to fund the Putin regime.
We better start building a list of war criminals. Put hundreds and hundreds of names on it. Not only the top brass, but anyone who in any way continues to fund the Putin regime.
No, we need to very careful. There are only two ways out of this. Giving Putin an off ramp so he takes his toys home and we await his demise. Or giving an off ramp to those around him to accelerate the process (hopefully in a safe way).
Please can someone paint Ukranian flags on the side of a few fighter planes, and go bomb the hell out of that convoy before they find a way through to Kiev.
I'm convinced we could have done more on the plausible deniabilty front. I'm hoping we've lulled them into a false sense of security and will drone them when the moment is right. I admit that is unlikely though.
I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
I know nothing but is their economy going to sink without trace? Their economy is mostly oil and gas, and they're still producing oil and gas. Their currency has been devalued but that doesn't destroy your economy, it makes any export industry that's still functioning more profitable. And they can still trade freely with China and India. I'm not saying it won't be bad for them but I'm not sure it's armageddon?
Well Germany is going to build LNG to reduce reliance on Russian gas. The question is how long that takes. Russia can't reorient its gas supplies eastwards too quickly. And of course they'll get more export earnings from the devaluation so it helps cushion the blow but my experience is that such devaluations (40%) are usually pretty terrible for an economy. Combined with 20% interest rates. Have you listened to what people in Russia have been saying? Oh and the stock market is closed for a week. The day after Brexit this is not.
We better start building a list of war criminals. Put hundreds and hundreds of names on it. Not only the top brass, but anyone who in any way continues to fund the Putin regime.
No, we need to very careful. There are only two ways out of this. Giving Putin an off ramp so he takes his toys home and we await his demise. Or giving an off ramp to those around him to accelerate the process (hopefully in a safe way).
Two things oil Putin's power: money and fear. We are using what levers we can externally to disrupt the money. But it needs to be cut off internally, within Russia. People won't get paid, people will lose what they have, people who have got used to luxury will spend very long periods in jail.
The fear of what we can do to those who facilitate Putin will never match what Putin can do to them if he decides to have them all rounded up. But the sooner he is gone, the sooner that fear goes away. And the more magnanimous we can choose to be to those on the war crimes list.
Please can someone paint Ukranian flags on the side of a few fighter planes, and go bomb the hell out of that convoy before they find a way through to Kiev.
I'm convinced we could have done more on the plausible deniabilty front. I'm hoping we've lulled them into a false sense of security and will drone them when the moment is right. I admit that is unlikely though.
The British army guy saying “Please British soldiers, don’t go to Ukraine. No, really, please don’t”, could be read in a number of different ways, depending on the audience…
There’s no way all that NATO kit is completely unaccompanied, and there were definitely Western military ‘trainers’ in Ukraine for months before the invasion. Maybe Ukranian flags on Typhoons and F35s might be implausible, but there’s plenty of SU-27s around Eastern Europe that would work just fine.
Please can someone paint Ukranian flags on the side of a few fighter planes, and go bomb the hell out of that convoy before they find a way through to Kiev.
How could the Russians prove that they were Nato? If it was the other way around would the Russians think twice about it?
I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
I know nothing but is their economy going to sink without trace? Their economy is mostly oil and gas, and they're still producing oil and gas. Their currency has been devalued but that doesn't destroy your economy, it makes any export industry that's still functioning more profitable. And they can still trade freely with China and India. I'm not saying it won't be bad for them but I'm not sure it's armageddon?
Well Germany is going to build LNG to reduce reliance on Russian gas. The question is how long that takes. Russia can't reorient its gas supplies eastwards too quickly. And of course they'll get more export earnings from the devaluation so it helps cushion the blow but my experience is that such devaluations (40%) are usually pretty terrible for an economy. Combined with 20% interest rates. Have you listened to what people in Russia have been saying? Oh and the stock market is closed for a week. The day after Brexit this is not.
Moscow stock market shut for a week, and queues for the few banks with dollars in the safe, charging unofficial excahnge rates with 50% premiums as mortgage payments double.
Definitely nothing wrong here, nothing at all.
How long before ordinary middle-class Russians in Moscow, want to Puck Futin as much as the rest of us do?
Do we have any age breakdown for Putin support in Russia? If the young are less likely to watch television - which he controls - and more likely to follow media sources he doesn't, might there be a big generational divide? And who is it that's in the military? The young. Again, I am getting my hopes up but a mass strike amongst the air force or even desertion with the amount of money being offered, would be lovely to see.
Do we have any age breakdown for Putin support in Russia? If the young are less likely to watch television - which he controls - and more likely to follow media sources he doesn't, might there be a big generational divide? And who is it that's in the military? The young. Again, I am getting my hopes up but a mass strike amongst the air force or even desertion with the amount of money being offered, would be lovely to see.
Can’t remember who but I heard someone on the radio at the weekend pointing out that Netflix and the like have a role to play. They could flash up messages and videos every time the app is loaded. And if they get taken down for it, it’s one more brick in the wall of luxury gone for the Russian people.
Reynolds: The more we talk, the more we’re using World War II analogies. There are people who are saying we’re on the brink of a World War III.
Hill: We’re already in it.
She thinks he would use nuclear weapons.
Not sensible talk, whatever the risks. Politicians should tone down their pubic rhetoric a couple of notches, and media should also not cause panic.
It's a tricky one.
I understand why people don't like the talk of nuclear war or the talk of world war three but to what extent is that just us wish-casting? Actually, wasn't it you who posted over the weekend that you just had a feeling in your gut that it was all about to get better?
I'm not being critical of you. In some ways I operated on the same denial about the invasion in the first place.
But Fiona Hill is right: “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.”
We are already sucked into this war. We are supplying intelligence, weaponry and even personnel. The whole of the EU is now involved. There is war in Europe.
As for nuclear. I am convinced Putin is deranged enough to use it and he may even use it against any western countries who are seen to be aiding Ukraine's defence.
This feels like a very dangerous situation. Whereas until recently diplomacy was carried out very carefully by state actors, now it is being driven by twitter. Consequently, there is rapid escalation, and it is out of the control of Western governments. The suggestion that the Ukranian air force can use airfields in NATO countries, endorsed by the social media accounts associated with the Ukranian regime, is an example of a very bad move. Of course, it the idea has merit, but it gives Putin all the evidence he needs to justify further escalation. And he is running out of options.
I don't see a good solution other than the disposal of Putin. And that must come from within Russia.
Comments
Quite apart from anything else, I'm assuming that the alliance would seek unanimity, and such a madcap enterprise would therefore be blocked by the more cautious powers. Certainly Hungary, and almost certainly Germany as well, for starters.
Two nuclear bombs had been used relatively recently.
Missiles were new and omnipotent unstoppable technology. Warheads had been developed with more destructive power and produced in numbers.
It was new and gave us a whole different reality to assimilate.
Last person to suggest this was The Donald.
Creating barriers increases division in the long run.
BREAKING: Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have broken ranks with the Kremlin and called for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/CalltoActivism/status/1498443028540837891
Which ends in 5 mins.
Russia is the empire of the despots. If we're all lucky enough to outlive Putin then the next bastard will simply rise to take his place. They've been the same since Ivan the Terrible. No attempt at meaningful reform ever endures.
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1498255397529993217
BREAKING: Israeli foreign minister Lapid says Israel will vote in favor of a UN general assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine
I wonder if getting involved will make any difference to what Putin will do. If he really has gone "full tonto", for whatever reason (roids, terminal illness) would he just look for an excuse to nuke us anyway? If he wants to do it, would downing a few jets make any difference?
A conspiracy theorist could suggest that the crap performance by the military is a deliberate ploy to provide a reason to escalate, and to draw others in when the escalation happens.
I _really_ hope that we hear rumblings from the Kremlin soon. Surely they can all see where this is going.
There is also no guarantee the few thousand western NATO troops in Poland and the Baltic States would not be ordered to retreat back to reinforce the western nations if Poland and the Baltic States were invaded by the Russians
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1498447849255837696
“We have no fucking clue what [Putin] will do next,” he said. “No one in the business community has a clue any more. Everyone is so depressed. I have experienced so many economic crises here, the pandemic being the latest.
“But there was always a reason to keep on fighting for your business,” he said. “Now, I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel any more. Even if peace is achieved, the damage is done. How do we reverse it?”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/the-damage-is-done-russians-face-economic-point-of-no-return
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/28/russian-invasion-is-no-time-for-uk-ministers-clumsy-messaging
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I think he knows what he’s talking about here.
https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1498402514256941062
Since USSR got nukes in 1950s, US policy under *every* prez has been not to fight USSR/RUS directly *except* (a) w/in NATO or (b) Western hemis—Cuban Missile Crisis
“Watch in silence” = Hungary 1956, Czech 1968, Berlin many times…
This time is a bit different, but not that different.
And Centrist, not Leftie please.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
Prayers for Ukraine
Good night everyone
“Russian convoy 'stretches up to 40 miles'
Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology says that earlier reports indicating the column of Russian armour advancing on Kyiv is 17 miles (27km) long are inaccurate.
The convoy actually stretches about 40 miles, according to Maxar.
The company added that new images also show ground troops and attack helicopters in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles from the Ukraine border.”
Pat Robertson came out of retirement to claim that Putin "is being compelled by God" to invade Ukraine in preparation for a massive End Times invasion of Israel.
https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1498410764113256455
Sounds a bit like Dugin.
"BREAKING - British Army warns its soldies not to go rogue and travel to Ukraine - Telegraph reports"
Unprecedented numbers of British soldiers heading out to the shops for a pack of cigs last I heard.
It may be a plan drawn up before the introduction of so much lethal defence kit into theatre. With no expectation it could ever arrive.
Ironically, it could be the ability of the Ukrainians to inflict so much damage on that convoy that causes a mad petulant Putin to nuke them, out of spite for what they have done to his army. So maybe smash up the front part guys, and let the rear two-thirds back up and go home.....
Another video of Russian soldiers in Berdyansk being told what the local populace. I feel bad for them - they saw their friends die on a liberation mission, only to arrive and be told to go home. Almost everyone involved in this war is a victim.
It doesn't look like this is happening though. Do they have air cover against drones?
Just out of interest, I checked the Sentinel satellite images and was very surprised that they are still being made public over Ukraine. I've played with these in the past for various reasons...
This is Hostomel airfield 2 days ago using SWIR, showing the fires clearly. Obviously the US have much better satellites for surveillance and not land observation, but still...
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=50.59318&lng=30.19403&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https://services.sentinel-hub.com/ogc/wms/bd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-02-26T00:00:00.000Z&toTime=2022-02-26T23:59:59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR
It seems some of the rations given to Russian soldiers date from 2013 and “expired” in 2015
On Wallace, his 1853 comments were almost as inept as some of Truss's , but since then he's been better again. I agree that either him of Mordaunt would be better.
Yes, he replied - just enough to bury our dead.
On the oligarchs question, that's very much the kind of good news some of us were expecting earlier on. The pressure on them will soon be unbearable, and so eventually will it be on the leader, via the army also.
ARTICLE 17. To every Union Republic is reserved the right freely to secede from the U.S.S.R.
Also worth noting that Ukraine was a full, separate member of the United Nations, indeed one of the founding UN members in 1945.
How's THAT for some realpolitik?
Justin Bronk
28 February 2022"
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force
@ChrisMurphyCT
4/ The U.S. and allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his oligarch allies, but to seize those assets as well. This is likely a further step than Putin’s inner circle anticipated.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477869936398340
"A spokesman for the country's foreign ministry said the steps the bloc has taken against it following its invasion of Ukraine, which include sanctions, will 'not go unanswered'.
It also warned that 'EU citizens and structures' involved in sending weapons to Ukraine would be 'responsible for any consequences'. "
Have Russia ever supplied weapons to a third party who is in conflict with an EU member or UK or USA?
They do have 100% effective blinkers.
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https://www.wordle2.in
I am also uneasy about banning RT, which has, or is being, done. It is not doing any demonstrable harm and we should never fear a flawed message. Again, during the Cold War it was the East that tried to jam western radio; as a child I used to pick up the news from Radio Moscow and Radio Tirana and it never did me any harm (no votes on that one pls).
In our eagerness to do everything we can other than actually fighting, let’s not lose sight of the high ground we purport to be defending.
He has the will and the means to do lots of evil to the world. This has been clear for at least a decade, but we did virtually nothing each time.
So it becomes a series of questions. Do you think Putin (not Russia) needs stopping? If so, when? How?
We have very few tools in our armoury. I have been impressed by the speed, severity and unanimity of sanctions amongst western nations.
But they do not look like they are going to stop him.
The problem is that Very Online people were already strongly anti-Putin, especially English speakers. They're also the people most likely to be immediately screwed by sanctions. So I have no idea what middle-aged and elderly people who get their news from TV are saying or experiencing.
And don't forget that their oil industry is dependent on drilling rigs and other equipment from Western firms like Schulmberger, Baker Hughes and Halliburton.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498537119467327488
I will go further. Although Putin is facing humiliation he still has a couple of cards he can play. Firstly he can escalate the war in Ukraine and engage in atrocious bombing of civilians if he so wishes. Secondly he could launch nuclear annihilation. The second of these is unlikely but how might we try to stop the first? We could make it absolutely clear that the sanctions are not finished yet and that we are prepared to cut off the gas if he goes down the Aleppo route. The public needs to be prepared for this NOW and explain that the alternative is possibly millions of refugees. Could we encourage people to use alternative forms of energy if they have them available? Point out that the focus is on those with the broadest shoulders - the poor after all are already probably economising due to rising prices.
Secondly the west needs to send a message to the rest. If countries are not prepared to condemn Russia then we will have to consider our generosity towards them. If you want our help with covid, aid, climate change relief don't risk losing our support because the west is re-discovering itself and will not look kindly on those who do not wish to share their outrage at a government using its nuclear deterrent as a shield to destroy cities, killing and maiming thousands of people into submission. And for what? Nothing more than one deluded man's bruised pride and ego.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
Wonder how many days it will take to get desensitised to it all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko
Hill: We’re already in it.
The fear of what we can do to those who facilitate Putin will never match what Putin can do to them if he decides to have them all rounded up. But the sooner he is gone, the sooner that fear goes away. And the more magnanimous we can choose to be to those on the war crimes list.
There’s no way all that NATO kit is completely unaccompanied, and there were definitely Western military ‘trainers’ in Ukraine for months before the invasion. Maybe Ukranian flags on Typhoons and F35s might be implausible, but there’s plenty of SU-27s around Eastern Europe that would work just fine.
Definitely nothing wrong here, nothing at all.
How long before ordinary middle-class Russians in Moscow, want to Puck Futin as much as the rest of us do?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Gorbachev#Foreign_policy
I understand why people don't like the talk of nuclear war or the talk of world war three but to what extent is that just us wish-casting? Actually, wasn't it you who posted over the weekend that you just had a feeling in your gut that it was all about to get better?
I'm not being critical of you. In some ways I operated on the same denial about the invasion in the first place.
But Fiona Hill is right: “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.”
We are already sucked into this war. We are supplying intelligence, weaponry and even personnel. The whole of the EU is now involved. There is war in Europe.
As for nuclear. I am convinced Putin is deranged enough to use it and he may even use it against any western countries who are seen to be aiding Ukraine's defence.
So should the media not report the threat?
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1498544825062375434
I don't see a good solution other than the disposal of Putin. And that must come from within Russia.