Not an easy day. Pray for Ukraine and her people. 😢
Does your wife have family in Ukraine ? Do you know if they are safe ? I hope they are.
Her father is there, lives west of Kiev so out of the major conflict area. Military base nearby was bombed this morning though. She has many friends in Kiev and surrounding areas. God knows what happens next. My wife is thankfully with me in Dubai.
I’m out of here for a while, will probably lurk but not really in the mood for the usual political debate when there’s a war going on. Can we all please agree that the only agressor is Vladimir Putin.
Absolutely.
Best wishes for them all and all people of Ukraine.
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Whereas our wonderful government has covered itself in glory. Silly old furriners
You may want to drop the silly partisanship for a while.
The UK and US governments have been warning for months increasingly loudly that Russia was going to invade.
Charles Michel just said that they had no idea that Russia was going to invade.
This isn't a partisan thing, this isn't a Brexit issue, its seriously WTF that he can stand there and say to the world he had no idea what was coming. Incredible and Sky's correspondent was right to be gobsmacked.
100% not putting a Brexit spin on this either way, today is not the day for those old squabbles.
Unless his public statement was not the internal view.
1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.
2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.
Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.
Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
Note to young Misty,
Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.
Cheers, Mr Chips.
Misty's right.
If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.
You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.
PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.
Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"
Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.
It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm. Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.
No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
You clearly missed my final paragraph so let me reiterate for you, there would have been economic damage either way, but there is no way that the damage would have been as severe.
Still we can never fully walk or understand the path not travelled, but as far as I can see no country without mandatory lockdowns had anything like the hit to the economy of their Exchequer as we did.
Lockdown had a steep price to pay, just because health is important doesn't mean it is cost-free or that the cost paid was unavoidable.
No, there is every way and every chance that the economic damage would have been far worse. People aren't going to keep up the same economic activity when they're stepping over collapsing people, or they know that any illness will go untreated.
Look, I hated lockdown as well. It doesn't mean it was responsible for everything wrong that happened. Hell, during 2020, the UK had more restaurant footfall than, say, many US states that avoided imposing any lockdowns - because people were far more confident to go out in the quiet periods for the virus. Not just me. Go through all the surveys here: https://www.igmchicago.org/covid-19/
Get the virus under control and the economy can run more normally. Do not do so, and it doesn't. The impact to the economy correlates far better with the death rates than anything else. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy
1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.
2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.
Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.
Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
Note to young Misty,
Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.
Cheers, Mr Chips.
Misty's right.
If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.
You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.
PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.
Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"
Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.
It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm. Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.
No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
The best performing economy in Europe through the pandemic was Denmark, which had lots of restrictions. The worst was either the UK or Spain. Both of which had lots of restrictions.
Sweden - which had few restrictions - performed better than most European countries, but worse than neighours Norway, Denmark or Germany.
Basically, it's complicated.
If you're going to need restrictions, get them strong enough and get them going in time.
If you leave it too late (or too mild) to avoid considerable death and healthcare stresses, you'll incur a big chunk of the economic damage anyway, and need the restrictions longer.
On the flip side, do not impose restrictions that are unneeded or too strong. Not an easy balance, of course.
Vulnerability to disease should surely determine restriction levels.
Protect the sick, the disabled and the old, and let the healthy keep generating wealth.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I think Putin would find Russia in Eurovision more of an affront to his ideas about masculinity and hatred of homosexuality - in fact it’s beholden on Eurovision to turn the gayness up to 11 this year and then make Russia win as it will give Putin a heart attack.
UK entry should be "Putin has only got one ball.."
This is quicker than the fall of Afghanistan if true. I DON’T BELIEVE YOU.
You mean you don’t believe Bloomberg. Don’t shoot the messenger.
(Also on Swedish state broadcaster SVT.)
(Don't they say "the kyiv region" - with reports that they are about 35km from the capital; but it can't be long - the Belarus border is so close to the capital anyway.)
Yes, that is what I saw.
It's possible they have airlifted light tanks into the airport outside of Kyiv, which was reported taken by helicopter assault, but there certainly won't have driven all the way from Belarus so quickly. There was also video of Mil8s reportedly overflying a town on the outskirts of Kyiv. Ukraine has also reported destroying a tank column which crossed the border from Belarus. All FWIW.
All of this is going to be pretty unclear for a while.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
It has not.
The Western Alliance is NATO. Brexit hasn't weakened that.
Some wanted NATO to be "braindead" and the EU to be the future - it never was and never would be. Defence is via NATO and Brexit hasn't damaged that at all, as is visible by how clear and strong a player the UK, the USA and certain EU nations like the Netherland, Denmark and Spain are.
France has long played a semi-detached role from NATO and Western security and Germany seem to want to go that way too. Thankfully the visions of some that the EU would replace NATO never happened.
Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out. Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.
Why do you think Boris comes out well in this? He’s had an awful Ukraine Crisis so far.
Who says I think he's come out well in this? Like everything else, it's a mixed bag. The gap between the admirable rhetoric and the lacklustre delivery is pretty emblematic. All we're missing is some horrible verbal gaff.
Is that all?
Boris has no intention of letting the UK response go beyond sanctions, but did commit UK in his speech today to bring down the Putin regime with sanctions, we are now at economic war, though admitted it won’t be quick. Leaders should look his own people in the eye and tell them this war will be hard for us too. He has had ample opportunity, including an address to the nation to do this, shirked it every time. He has not been straight at any point with UK that the sanctions war to bring down Putin (that he said will be long, some experts might say say never getting there) is going to hurt people in Britain too, the costs we have to pay in our fight to bring down the Putin regime now and put him on trial for war crimes. Boris Pathologically incapable of being straight with anyone, isn’t he. Not a great leadership trait.
The real damage was done earlier in the week, where it’s accepted now we gave a “pea shooter” response. It’s all going to be seen through the prism of that now in coming weeks, you see what I mean? How does he turn round this narrative of being weak? The tale of how the UK went from the Iron Lady of Europe to the Straw Man?
And this what people call a good day, where he has upped his game?
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
I hope these lines in the sand don't remain when the EU announces its next round of sanctions..
@MatinaStevis Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky: - ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions - ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways - ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods - BEL wants carve-out for diamonds + broad reluctance to sanction energy sector https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374
This is quicker than the fall of Afghanistan if true. I DON’T BELIEVE YOU.
You mean you don’t believe Bloomberg. Don’t shoot the messenger.
(Also on Swedish state broadcaster SVT.)
(Don't they say "the kyiv region" - with reports that they are about 35km from the capital; but it can't be long - the Belarus border is so close to the capital anyway.)
If by "region" they mean Kiyivska Oblast, then yes it borders on Belarus and includes part of the largely empty Chernobyl exclusion zone
Not an easy day. Pray for Ukraine and her people. 😢
Does your wife have family in Ukraine ? Do you know if they are safe ? I hope they are.
Her father is there, lives west of Kiev so out of the major conflict area. Military base nearby was bombed this morning though. She has many friends in Kiev and surrounding areas. God knows what happens next. My wife is thankfully with me in Dubai.
I’m out of here for a while, will probably lurk but not really in the mood for the usual political debate when there’s a war going on. Can we all please agree that the only agressor is Vladimir Putin.
Best wishes to you and your wife Sandpit, and her family.
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
I genuinely don't agree with that. It is such a superficial and false idea that it should not even be considered. As a military entity the EU has always been, and to date remains, an irrelevance. As a diplomatic entity designed to project soft power it is also an irrelevance since the individual countries have so many diverse views on every single subject. You only have to look at the current situation within the EU to see that in action with countries all wanting their own carve outs from any sanctions. Indeed the only meaningful sanction to date - the suspension of Nordstream - came about because of one EU country (Germany) being pressured into it by a non EU country (The US). The UK being inside or outside makes no difference to any of that. EU countries will do their own thing when it comes to reacting to this and the only multi-national organisation that matters right now is NATO.
That is all before any rally behind the PM in a crisis poll bounce for Boris
In the dazed days after the results come in, it’ll all have seemed inevitable.
I don't yet see a popular alternative government waiting to sweep in and save the nation. Starmer is a decent person, has made some good decisions and some poor ones (Johnson variant?). The nutters are slowly leaving the party. Starmer will need policies waiting to go, which he won't want to announce too soon.
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Whereas our wonderful government has covered itself in glory. Silly old furriners
You may want to drop the silly partisanship for a while.
The UK and US governments have been warning for months increasingly loudly that Russia was going to invade.
Charles Michel just said that they had no idea that Russia was going to invade.
This isn't a partisan thing, this isn't a Brexit issue, its seriously WTF that he can stand there and say to the world he had no idea what was coming. Incredible and Sky's correspondent was right to be gobsmacked.
100% not putting a Brexit spin on this either way, today is not the day for those old squabbles.
I think you need to notice my post was a response to the previous post (Leon), plus this is a political discussion forum amongst other things. Putin's interest in Brexit and Scottish separatism and other areas that relate to the weakening of the UK and the western alliance is very relevant, and as you well know has always been one of my main reasons for opposing Brexit, on security grounds. I am sure you, and others on here will not wish to address that because you voted for it, but the reality is that our government needs to rebuild it's cred with all our Western partners, but I suspect that while the Clown is still in post there will continue to be this "us and them" approach to members of the EU (typified by Leon's post), and that is not helpful
Just wondering but Sky News had lots of people reporting live from various places, including Kiev. Not seen much in the way of them recently, just back to studio presenting.
I guess a lot of them would have been on-air for a number of hours since the beginning of the invasion in the early hours...just hoping it's not a bad sign in itself (i.e. things have deteriorated so quickly they've already hade to abandon the location)?
Edit - turned to BBC and they are reporting live from Kiev so obviously not the case
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
The oil price dipped below zero because storage capacity was full at Cushing Oklahoma - people literally couldn't take delivery. (And indeed, that's one of the reasons that oil & gas drilling in the US basically stopped.)
But oil wasn't actually sold for zero dollars by the Russians. It just sat in storage.
Starting at the beginning of 2021, the oil price began to climb and climb. And that stored oil was sold at high prices.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
It certainly plays into his hands, the influence of the Green lobby on our politics.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.
2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.
Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.
Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
Note to young Misty,
Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.
Cheers, Mr Chips.
Misty's right.
If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.
You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.
PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.
Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"
Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.
It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm. Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.
No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
The best performing economy in Europe through the pandemic was Denmark, which had lots of restrictions. The worst was either the UK or Spain. Both of which had lots of restrictions.
Sweden - which had few restrictions - performed better than most European countries, but worse than neighours Norway, Denmark or Germany.
Basically, it's complicated.
If you're going to need restrictions, get them strong enough and get them going in time.
If you leave it too late (or too mild) to avoid considerable death and healthcare stresses, you'll incur a big chunk of the economic damage anyway, and need the restrictions longer.
On the flip side, do not impose restrictions that are unneeded or too strong. Not an easy balance, of course.
Vulnerability to disease should surely determine restriction levels.
Protect the sick, the disabled and the old, and let the healthy keep generating wealth.
Okay, those most vulnerable to hospitalisation (which is who we need to protect) were those in JCVI categories 1-9.
Amounting to 33 million of our population. Of the remaining 34 million, over 10 million are under 16.
So we have 24 million adults to run the entire country, economy, and health service. We also have to disentangle all people in that 33 million from interacting with the remaining 24 million. Families. Where do children of those in categories 1-9 go? Not with grandparents, obviously. Do we have state-run facilities? All workers in all areas (including the health service, police, government, supermarkets, power industry, water industry) who are in categories 1-9 need to be isolated and cannot turn up to work. How, exactly, these isolated people keep going is a bit unclear. How do they get food? Do we keep paying all their bills?
It's basically the bollocks of the Great Barrington Declaration, which could never work in practice, but dangled the prospect of "with a bound, you can be free" in front of the gullible who wanted it to just go away right now please.
(Is this where "Oh, those in those categories can just keep going if they want" or "that's too harsh on the choice of restrictions" comes in? With just those under 50 and with no long term health conditions allowed and that limited number, if they were all exposed prior to vaccines, we'd expect in excess of 800,000 of them to be hospitalised, anyway - which is higher than the number we've seen hospitalised to date. So it's actually too permissive a criterion; we'd still see healthcare collapse, because it would incur that greater number of hospitalisations than we've yet seen in considerably less time - and with a health service crippled through losing many people in JCVI categories 1-9)
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
I genuinely don't agree with that. It is such a superficial and false idea that it should not even be considered. As a military entity the EU has always been, and to date remains, an irrelevance. As a diplomatic entity designed to project soft power it is also an irrelevance since the individual countries have so many diverse views on every single subject. You only have to look at the current situation within the EU to see that in action with countries all wanting their own carve outs from any sanctions. Indeed the only meaningful sanction to date - the suspension of Nordstream - came about because of one EU country (Germany) being pressured into it by a non EU country (The US). The UK being inside or outside makes no difference to any of that. EU countries will do their own thing when it comes to reacting to this and the only multi-national organisation that matters right now is NATO.
Good articulate post Richard, but methinks you are simply trying to justify a foreign policy and security disaster because you were emotionally engaged with it. Brexit has created significant division and has emboldened Putin. It is not the only thing that has, but it is important. To suggest otherwise is putting your head in the sand .
Just wondering but Sky News had lots of people reporting live from various places, including Kiev. Not seen much in the way of them recently, just back to studio presenting.
I guess a lot of them would have been on-air for a number of hours since the beginning of the invasion in the early hours...just hoping it's not a bad sign in itself (i.e. things have deteriorated so quickly they've already hade to abandon the location)?
Edit - turned to BBC and they are reporting live from Kiev so obviously not the case
There was an air-raid siren about 20 mins ago whilst live on the roof with bbc people - they’ve now put their flak jackets on but still out on the roof. Sky are soft lads!!
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
Not an easy day. Pray for Ukraine and her people. 😢
Does your wife have family in Ukraine ? Do you know if they are safe ? I hope they are.
Her father is there, lives west of Kiev so out of the major conflict area. Military base nearby was bombed this morning though. She has many friends in Kiev and surrounding areas. God knows what happens next. My wife is thankfully with me in Dubai.
I’m out of here for a while, will probably lurk but not really in the mood for the usual political debate when there’s a war going on. Can we all please agree that the only agressor is Vladimir Putin.
Best wishes to you and your wife Sandpit, and her family.
I think Putin would find Russia in Eurovision more of an affront to his ideas about masculinity and hatred of homosexuality - in fact it’s beholden on Eurovision to turn the gayness up to 11 this year and then make Russia win as it will give Putin a heart attack.
UK entry should be "Putin has only got one ball.."
I haven't any specialised knowledge about this conflict but I have a growing feeling that Putin has signed his own death warrant. I think he will be liquidated within the year and possibly a lot sooner. Could be dressed up as a short illness depending on circumstances. This could be a classic case study to be included in any future discussion of "the role of the individual in history". A corrupt regime with a relatively stable power structure but too much power concentrated over time in the central figure who then has a change of mental state. He becomes erratic, too risky, too unpredictable. They won't move while the invasion is in full swing but I think they will act.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
I genuinely don't agree with that. It is such a superficial and false idea that it should not even be considered. As a military entity the EU has always been, and to date remains, an irrelevance. As a diplomatic entity designed to project soft power it is also an irrelevance since the individual countries have so many diverse views on every single subject. You only have to look at the current situation within the EU to see that in action with countries all wanting their own carve outs from any sanctions. Indeed the only meaningful sanction to date - the suspension of Nordstream - came about because of one EU country (Germany) being pressured into it by a non EU country (The US). The UK being inside or outside makes no difference to any of that. EU countries will do their own thing when it comes to reacting to this and the only multi-national organisation that matters right now is NATO.
Good articulate post Richard, but methinks you are simply trying to justify a foreign policy and security disaster because you were emotionally engaged with it. Brexit has created significant division and has emboldened Putin. It is not the only thing that has, but it is important. To suggest otherwise is putting your head in the sand .
That's like saying snow melting caused spring. Brexit didn't cause significant division, Brexit happened because significant division hadn't been reconciled in decades. The divisions were always there, even if you didn't see them.
However longer term Brexit allows us to heal the divisions we couldn't as unhappy members of the EU. Instead of being unhappy tenants dragging our heels and consistently undermining the institution and seeking opt outs they can get to work integrating how they like and longer term we can move on to being friendly allies instead.of arguing neighbours.
Brexit was a first step to recovery to heal our divisions of the past.
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
It certainly plays into his hands, the influence of the Green lobby on our politics.
The thing is, Putin knows and understand that, right now, alternatives cannot replace conventionals. They just can't. The technologies are not there. And they won't be for a while.
Its a truth the West has failed to grasp, but its one that is leaving us horribly exposed.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
What evidence do you have that Putin would not have invaded if we had remained in the EU or that it emboldened him at al?
His idiotic belief that Ukraine is a part of Russia isn't affected by our vote to Leave. He started wars in Georgia and the Ukraine while we were a member of the EU. He poisoned people in England while we were a member of the EU, and when we had voted to leave. He has always been a murderously opportunistic tyrant and I don't see any evidence at all that voting to leave affected his behaviour even slightly.
But feel free to produce some. Evidence, not assertions.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
I agree with some of that, but not at all on Brexit. The primary usefulness of Brexit for Putin was by far and obviously intra-European strife and simply reduced co-ordination and integration between major powers, not social stresses within Britain. That's why he openly advocated for as hard a Brexit as possible, and even went on camera to tell May "to respect the Will of the People", as I posted the other day.
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
We changed PMs three times during the the world wars, we changed PM during the Korean war, and Thatcher was ousted a few weeks before the campaign to liberate Kuwait before.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
It certainly plays into his hands, the influence of the Green lobby on our politics.
The thing is, Putin knows and understand that, right now, alternatives cannot replace conventionals. They just can't. The technologies are not there. And they won't be for a while.
Its a truth the West has failed to grasp, but its one that is leaving us horribly exposed.
I hope these lines in the sand don't remain when the EU announces its next round of sanctions..
@MatinaStevis Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky: - ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions - ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways - ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods - BEL wants carve-out for diamonds + broad reluctance to sanction energy sector https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374
The lines are likely to increase.
Simple fact is every nation that wants to punish Russia, including us, will bear a cost for doing so, and that doesn't even include inevitable Russian retaliation.
It's depressing but not surprising that even after an actual invasion the primary concern is still to seek to punish Russia but with as little inconvenience as possible, that is not really punish them at all if we can help it. I'm surprised anything has happened at all.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
What a complete tool Farage is. Corbyn is, however, correct for once.
It is a miracle, he's managed to say the right thing without caveating some stupid, misplaced point which undermines it all (as Farage's second para does).
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
US/UK intelligence was superior, on this occasion. Which is some small solace. And it has often been inferior, of course
Most of the EU countries were (sadly) desperate to appear not to 'provoke' Russia. Somehow they thought that sending weapons to Ukraine increased the chance of war.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
US/UK intelligence was superior, on this occasion. Which is some small solace. And it has often been inferior, of course
Most of the EU countries were (sadly) desperate to appear not to 'provoke' Russia. Somehow they thought that sending weapons to Ukraine increased the chance of war.
Some otherwise sensible people have even gone so far as to say the rhetoric increased the chance of war.
Call me naiive, but I think external words are not a massive factor when someone had already marched his troops up to the border whilst leering drunkenly over it. It isn't the actions of someone who is taken a keen interest in what is being said.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
I agree with some of that, but not at all on Brexit. The primary usefulness of Brexit for Putin was by far and obviously intra-European strife and reduced co-ordination, not social stresses within Britain. That's why he openly advocated for as hard a Brexit as possible, and even went on camera to tell May "to respect the Will of the People", as I posted the other day.
Yes I think it's true but only if you firmly emphasise that intra-European strife is Putin's aim and that the means don't concern him. It wouldn't have mattered to him if the result had been a surly Britain remaining in the EU stymieing any attempt at European coordination. I'm as commited a supporter of Britain in the EU as you can find but purely in terms of Russian preference I think they'd have been equally disappointed by an emphatic remain vote and a smooth exit and negotiation on the UK's future relationship.
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
US/UK intelligence was superior, on this occasion. Which is some small solace. And it has often been inferior, of course
Somebody should write an article about how invading Ukraine is like having a baby.
No, if I were a writer, and I were opining on this, I'd say that Putin will almost certainly withdraw in a day or two under French "cultural pressure", because of the stature of Voltaire in the daily lives of Muscovites, and Russia's huge inferiority complex vis-a-vis the croissant
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
What a complete tool Farage is. Corbyn is, however, correct for once.
Yesterday Corbyn was still waving his white flag.
Farage is nonetheless worse.
Corbyn has been forced by circumstances - those darned Ukrainians peruse to be the aggressors! - to this.
But don't worry. The moment there is the slightest thing to condemn about Ukrainian actions (imagined or otherwise) he will snap back.
Reminds me of a manager who was a totally Company Man. On one occasion, they lied to him so deeply, obviously and egregiously that he snapped out of singing the company song. For about 6 hours. Then he snapped back. Just like someone had done a hard reset....
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
US/UK intelligence was superior, on this occasion. Which is some small solace. And it has often been inferior, of course
Somebody should write an article about how invading Ukraine is like having a baby.
No, if I were a writer, and I were opining on this, I'd say that Putin will almost certainly withdraw in a day or two under French "cultural pressure", because of the stature of Voltaire in the daily lives of Muscovites, and Russia's huge inferiority complex vis-a-vis the croissant
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
It certainly plays into his hands, the influence of the Green lobby on our politics.
The thing is, Putin knows and understand that, right now, alternatives cannot replace conventionals. They just can't. The technologies are not there. And they won't be for a while.
Its a truth the West has failed to grasp, but its one that is leaving us horribly exposed.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
I'm not sure Putin even believes himself. It would be entirely consistent with his current actions though.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
What a complete tool Farage is. Corbyn is, however, correct for once.
Yesterday Corbyn was still waving his white flag.
Farage is nonetheless worse.
Corbyn has been forced by circumstances - those darned Ukrainians peruse to be the aggressors! - to this.
But don't worry. The moment there is the slightest thing to condemn about Ukrainian actions (imagined or otherwise) he will snap back.
Reminds me of a manager who was a totally Company Man. On one occasion, they lied to him so deeply, obviously and egregiously that he snapped out of singing the company song. For about 6 hours. Then he snapped back. Just like someone had done a hard reset....
X should do the right thing.
X does the right thing.
X ONLY DID THE RIGHT THING COS THEY WERE FORCED TO!
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
I agree with some of that, but not at all on Brexit. The primary usefulness of Brexit for Putin was by far and obviously intra-European strife and reduced co-ordination, not social stresses within Britain. That's why he openly advocated for as hard a Brexit as possible, and even went on camera to tell May "to respect the Will of the People", as I posted the other day.
Yes I think it's true but only if you firmly emphasise that intra-European strife is Putin's aim and that the means don't concern him. It wouldn't have mattered to him if the result had been a surly Britain remaining in the EU stymieing any attempt at European coordination. I'm as commited a supporter of Britain in the EU as you can find but purely in terms of Russian preference I think they'd have been equally disappointed by an emphatic remain vote and a smooth exit and negotiation on the UK's future relationship.
It is also highly arguable that Europe quasi-united in an inert and bureaucratic union with little democracy and half-arsed foreign policy, and no real sense of purpose, serves Russia much better than a vigorous Europe of independent nations that can come together in a crisis
As a pseudo-Federation which constantly squabbles and does nothing, due to so many vetos, the EU probably diminishes European power, rather than multiplying it
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
US/UK intelligence was superior, on this occasion. Which is some small solace. And it has often been inferior, of course
Somebody should write an article about how invading Ukraine is like having a baby.
No, if I were a writer, and I were opining on this, I'd say that Putin will almost certainly withdraw in a day or two under French "cultural pressure", because of the stature of Voltaire in the daily lives of Muscovites, and Russia's huge inferiority complex vis-a-vis the croissant
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
It certainly plays into his hands, the influence of the Green lobby on our politics.
The thing is, Putin knows and understand that, right now, alternatives cannot replace conventionals. They just can't. The technologies are not there. And they won't be for a while.
Its a truth the West has failed to grasp, but its one that is leaving us horribly exposed.
Oh, they've had some massive successes - fracking in banned in France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Bulgaria, and those campaigns were all bankrolled by Russia.
(Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
I don't believe for a second that the LDs are on 15% in Scotland - that's basically the same level they were at in 2001.
20% for Plaid is also nonsense considering they only got that at last year's Assembly election and only polled 9.9% in 2019 (admittedly as part of an alliance with the LDs).
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
What a complete tool Farage is. Corbyn is, however, correct for once.
Yesterday Corbyn was still waving his white flag.
Farage is nonetheless worse.
Corbyn has been forced by circumstances - those darned Ukrainians peruse to be the aggressors! - to this.
But don't worry. The moment there is the slightest thing to condemn about Ukrainian actions (imagined or otherwise) he will snap back.
Reminds me of a manager who was a totally Company Man. On one occasion, they lied to him so deeply, obviously and egregiously that he snapped out of singing the company song. For about 6 hours. Then he snapped back. Just like someone had done a hard reset....
X should do the right thing.
X does the right thing.
X ONLY DID THE RIGHT THING COS THEY WERE FORCED TO!
It's not always irrelevant, particularly if someone has a habit of apologising/backpeddling, then just repeating the same thing they apologised/backpeddled over next time, but probably best to celebrate when someone's eyes are opened and hope it is lasting, like a damascene conversion.
Let's ignore WWW3 and concentrate on the important topic of British local by-elections. There are 6 today; Con defences in Castle Point, Lincolnshire, and South Kesteven, Ind defence in Durham, Ind defence elected as Con in South Kesteven, and Non-aligned elected as Con in Malden.
@maxseddon Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on state television just now:
“Firstly, this is not the beginning of a war. This is very important. We are trying to prevent developments that could escalate into a global war. And, secondly, this is the end of the war.”
We changed PMs three times during the the world wars, we changed PM during the Korean war, and Thatcher was ousted a few weeks before the campaign to liberate Kuwait before.
Johnson was always safe. He clearly still has the support of the vast majority of his MPs. This just moves the news cycle on.
My understanding is that, on the contrary, the majority hate him. This will delay his demise, though in my view, other than Mr Thicky Corbyn, I can think of few worse individuals to have in No10 at a time like this than a clown like Johnson.
Maybe they do hate him, but they support him. They certainly aren't (with a few exceptions) doing much to get rid of him.
@maxseddon Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on state television just now:
“Firstly, this is not the beginning of a war. This is very important. We are trying to prevent developments that could escalate into a global war. And, secondly, this is the end of the war.”
Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
Macron tried to use France's historic ties to Russia to avoid war. He tried to flatter and charm Putin and work out how he could be bought off.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
Yes, that's fair. At least Macron tried. However he over-estimated French prestige and influence, and made himself look a little silly
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
US/UK intelligence was superior, on this occasion. Which is some small solace. And it has often been inferior, of course
Somebody should write an article about how invading Ukraine is like having a baby.
No, if I were a writer, and I were opining on this, I'd say that Putin will almost certainly withdraw in a day or two under French "cultural pressure", because of the stature of Voltaire in the daily lives of Muscovites, and Russia's huge inferiority complex vis-a-vis the croissant
First, you'll have to get him out that French karaoke bar, where he's singing "Non, Je ne regrette rien...."
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
I agree with some of that, but not at all on Brexit. The primary usefulness of Brexit for Putin was by far and obviously intra-European strife and reduced co-ordination, not social stresses within Britain. That's why he openly advocated for as hard a Brexit as possible, and even went on camera to tell May "to respect the Will of the People", as I posted the other day.
Yes I think it's true but only if you firmly emphasise that intra-European strife is Putin's aim and that the means don't concern him. It wouldn't have mattered to him if the result had been a surly Britain remaining in the EU stymieing any attempt at European coordination. I'm as commited a supporter of Britain in the EU as you can find but purely in terms of Russian preference I think they'd have been equally disappointed by an emphatic remain vote and a smooth exit and negotiation on the UK's future relationship.
It is also highly arguable that Europe quasi-united in an inert and bureaucratic union with little democracy and half-arsed foreign policy, and no real sense of purpose, serves Russia much better than a vigorous Europe of independent nations that can come together in a crisis
As a pseudo-Federation which constantly squabbles and does nothing, due to so many vetos, the EU probably diminishes European power, rather than multiplying it
The issue of whether NATO is the nearest and only approximation to those vigorous independent nations is about to be tried out. And there truly is no alternative around.
An EU which has vacillated between trade association and Thing With Flag, Parliament, Taxes, Currency, Central Bank Ambassadors, Courts, Overriding Legislative Powers but no power to attack or defend will come unstuck. This may be what does it. but something else will if it doesn't.
Anyway, in a sign of these discombobulating times, took 6 on Wordle today - and even then. a surprisingly un-Wordle word in which I had very little confidence as I punched it in....
Anyway, in a sign of these discombobulating times, took 6 on Wordle today - and even then. a surprisingly un-Wordle word in which I had very little confidence as I punched it in....
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
But has NATO committed itself to the unequivocal defence (attack on one is attack on all) of non NATO friendly states.
It's (per google maps) 159km from the closest Russian point to the outskirts of Kyiv.
If they drove at full pelt and encountered no opposition, maybe.... but I don't think they'll be there just yet. It would indicate the Ukrainian military don't exist.
Comments
Best wishes for them all and all people of Ukraine.
People aren't going to keep up the same economic activity when they're stepping over collapsing people, or they know that any illness will go untreated.
Look, I hated lockdown as well. It doesn't mean it was responsible for everything wrong that happened. Hell, during 2020, the UK had more restaurant footfall than, say, many US states that avoided imposing any lockdowns - because people were far more confident to go out in the quiet periods for the virus.
Not just me. Go through all the surveys here: https://www.igmchicago.org/covid-19/
Get the virus under control and the economy can run more normally. Do not do so, and it doesn't. The impact to the economy correlates far better with the death rates than anything else.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy
Protect the sick, the disabled and the old, and let the healthy keep generating wealth.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
(Note the spelling)
It's possible they have airlifted light tanks into the airport outside of Kyiv, which was reported taken by helicopter assault, but there certainly won't have driven all the way from Belarus so quickly.
There was also video of Mil8s reportedly overflying a town on the outskirts of Kyiv.
Ukraine has also reported destroying a tank column which crossed the border from Belarus.
All FWIW.
All of this is going to be pretty unclear for a while.
The Western Alliance is NATO. Brexit hasn't weakened that.
Some wanted NATO to be "braindead" and the EU to be the future - it never was and never would be. Defence is via NATO and Brexit hasn't damaged that at all, as is visible by how clear and strong a player the UK, the USA and certain EU nations like the Netherland, Denmark and Spain are.
France has long played a semi-detached role from NATO and Western security and Germany seem to want to go that way too. Thankfully the visions of some that the EU would replace NATO never happened.
Boris has no intention of letting the UK response go beyond sanctions, but did commit UK in his speech today to bring down the Putin regime with sanctions, we are now at economic war, though admitted it won’t be quick. Leaders should look his own people in the eye and tell them this war will be hard for us too. He has had ample opportunity, including an address to the nation to do this, shirked it every time. He has not been straight at any point with UK that the sanctions war to bring down Putin (that he said will be long, some experts might say say never getting there) is going to hurt people in Britain too, the costs we have to pay in our fight to bring down the Putin regime now and put him on trial for war crimes. Boris Pathologically incapable of being straight with anyone, isn’t he. Not a great leadership trait.
The real damage was done earlier in the week, where it’s accepted now we gave a “pea shooter” response. It’s all going to be seen through the prism of that now in coming weeks, you see what I mean? How does he turn round this narrative of being weak? The tale of how the UK went from the Iron Lady of Europe to the Straw Man?
And this what people call a good day, where he has upped his game?
Safe till the next election because of this?
🙄
I remember one over excited idiot on here who shared footage from Call of Duty thinking it was contemporary footage.
He failed. But he tried, and I don't bear him any particular ill will (in this instance) for his behavious.
And compared to the Germans, Macron was a titan. While the Germans blocked the reexport of munitions to the Ukraine, the French have happily sold the Ukrainians everything they asked for.
@MatinaStevis
Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky:
- ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions
- ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways
- ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods
- BEL wants carve-out for diamonds
+ broad reluctance to sanction energy sector
https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374
Good article by Applebaum.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/ukraine-identity-russia-patriotism/622902/
Ukraine is not going to go away even if it is completely overrun by the fascist in Moscow.
Russia must have sustained huge losses in 2020 when the price when below zero. And yet suddenly Putin can fund an invasion...??
Plus We have plenty of oil and gas that we could get out of the ground to depress the price, but we choose not to. Because of the green lobby presumably. Or the real Putin enablers, as I like to call them.
I guess a lot of them would have been on-air for a number of hours since the beginning of the invasion in the early hours...just hoping it's not a bad sign in itself (i.e. things have deteriorated so quickly they've already hade to abandon the location)?
Edit - turned to BBC and they are reporting live from Kiev so obviously not the case
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
But oil wasn't actually sold for zero dollars by the Russians. It just sat in storage.
Starting at the beginning of 2021, the oil price began to climb and climb. And that stored oil was sold at high prices.
Jeremy Corbyn
@jeremycorbyn
Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
Russia must withdraw its troops and return to diplomacy. If it does not, dark days are ahead for Ukraine, Russia and all of Europe.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1496827583828312070
is MUCH better than
Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
Well, I was wrong. Putin has gone much further than I thought he would.
A consequence of EU and NATO expansion, which came to a head in 2014. It made no sense to poke the Russian bear with a stick.
These are dark days for Europe.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1496832757518974978
https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1496840890257711106?s=21
Amounting to 33 million of our population.
Of the remaining 34 million, over 10 million are under 16.
So we have 24 million adults to run the entire country, economy, and health service.
We also have to disentangle all people in that 33 million from interacting with the remaining 24 million.
Families. Where do children of those in categories 1-9 go? Not with grandparents, obviously. Do we have state-run facilities?
All workers in all areas (including the health service, police, government, supermarkets, power industry, water industry) who are in categories 1-9 need to be isolated and cannot turn up to work.
How, exactly, these isolated people keep going is a bit unclear. How do they get food? Do we keep paying all their bills?
It's basically the bollocks of the Great Barrington Declaration, which could never work in practice, but dangled the prospect of "with a bound, you can be free" in front of the gullible who wanted it to just go away right now please.
(Is this where "Oh, those in those categories can just keep going if they want" or "that's too harsh on the choice of restrictions" comes in? With just those under 50 and with no long term health conditions allowed and that limited number, if they were all exposed prior to vaccines, we'd expect in excess of 800,000 of them to be hospitalised, anyway - which is higher than the number we've seen hospitalised to date. So it's actually too permissive a criterion; we'd still see healthcare collapse, because it would incur that greater number of hospitalisations than we've yet seen in considerably less time - and with a health service crippled through losing many people in JCVI categories 1-9)
But he tried
My larger point is that the EU - from Brussels to Berlin - was publicly dismissing the weeks of UK/US warnings of near-certain invasion right up to this morning. Was that for show? Or did they simply not believe the bad news, for some psychological reason? Is it our old friend Normalcy Bias again?
That was certainly at work in Ukraine:
"Ukraine: west’s fears of imminent attack not shared in Kyiv
Analysis: Kyiv’s interpretation of Russian buildup diverges from UK and US leaders, who in recent days have ratcheted up invasion warnings"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/30/analysis-ukraine-russia-vladimir-putin-uk-us-intelligence
US/UK intelligence was superior, on this occasion. Which is some small solace. And it has often been inferior, of course
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-ends-emergency-powers-invoked-tackle-truckers-protests-pm-trudeau-2022-02-23/
Gary Lineker @GaryLineker·3m UEFA is to move the Champions League final away from Russia. The right decision.
ForgottenGenius @ExStrategist·1m Not to Stamford Bridge I assume.
Lab 46%
Con 39%
LD 9%
Grn 4%
Ref 2%
Indication of SLab/SLD revival?
SNP 41%
SLab 23%
SCon 16%
SLD 15%
Ref 4%
Grn 1%
Indication of Welsh Tory revival?
WLab 39%
WCon 30%
PC 20%
WLD 8%
Grn 3%
Ref 2%
(Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
However longer term Brexit allows us to heal the divisions we couldn't as unhappy members of the EU. Instead of being unhappy tenants dragging our heels and consistently undermining the institution and seeking opt outs they can get to work integrating how they like and longer term we can move on to being friendly allies instead.of arguing neighbours.
Brexit was a first step to recovery to heal our divisions of the past.
Its a truth the West has failed to grasp, but its one that is leaving us horribly exposed.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
His idiotic belief that Ukraine is a part of Russia isn't affected by our vote to Leave. He started wars in Georgia and the Ukraine while we were a member of the EU. He poisoned people in England while we were a member of the EU, and when we had voted to leave. He has always been a murderously opportunistic tyrant and I don't see any evidence at all that voting to leave affected his behaviour even slightly.
But feel free to produce some. Evidence, not assertions.
Perhaps they didn't listen to Putin's speech.
Simple fact is every nation that wants to punish Russia, including us, will bear a cost for doing so, and that doesn't even include inevitable Russian retaliation.
It's depressing but not surprising that even after an actual invasion the primary concern is still to seek to punish Russia but with as little inconvenience as possible, that is not really punish them at all if we can help it. I'm surprised anything has happened at all.
Czech government:
1) closes two Russian consulates on Czech territory
2) closes two Czech consulates in Russia
3) suspends issuing new visa to Russians
4) calls home Czech ambassadors to Moscow and Minsk
5) prepares for the migration wave from Ukraine
https://twitter.com/_jakubjanda/status/1496836189223010306?s=21
Belarusian troops could be used in operation against Ukraine if needed, Lukashenko says
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1496841157011292175
Farage is nonetheless worse.
Call me naiive, but I think external words are not a massive factor when someone had already marched his troops up to the border whilst leering drunkenly over it. It isn't the actions of someone who is taken a keen interest in what is being said.
But don't worry. The moment there is the slightest thing to condemn about Ukrainian actions (imagined or otherwise) he will snap back.
Reminds me of a manager who was a totally Company Man. On one occasion, they lied to him so deeply, obviously and egregiously that he snapped out of singing the company song. For about 6 hours. Then he snapped back. Just like someone had done a hard reset....
It would be entirely consistent with his current actions though.
X does the right thing.
X ONLY DID THE RIGHT THING COS THEY WERE FORCED TO!
As a pseudo-Federation which constantly squabbles and does nothing, due to so many vetos, the EU probably diminishes European power, rather than multiplying it
Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on state television just now:
“Firstly, this is not the beginning of a war. This is very important. We are trying to prevent developments that could escalate into a global war. And, secondly, this is the end of the war.”
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496838767596142599
They certainly aren't (with a few exceptions) doing much to get rid of him.
An EU which has vacillated between trade association and Thing With Flag, Parliament, Taxes, Currency, Central Bank Ambassadors, Courts, Overriding Legislative Powers but no power to attack or defend will come unstuck. This may be what does it. but something else will if it doesn't.
What price Finland?
📺 It is understood he will deliver a statement later today
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1496849543765565441
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As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1496842315985559560?cxt=HHwWkIC9kfyJ7cUpAAAA
It's (per google maps) 159km from the closest Russian point to the outskirts of Kyiv.
If they drove at full pelt and encountered no opposition, maybe.... but I don't think they'll be there just yet. It would indicate the Ukrainian military don't exist.