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Punters think the Ukraine invasion will help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Age related data

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.

    Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
    Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):

    Zelensky = Centrist liberal
    Putin = Right-wing conservative
    In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
    So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!

    Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
    The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.

    The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.

    It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
    I'm not sure 'authoritarian v liberal' is quite the full essence of it, although it does explain a lot. The softhead pro-Russia sentiment on the left has 2 main drivers imo - a sentimental attachment to the cradle of communism and a crude anti-Western world view in which enemies of the West (and esp the US) become allies to be rooted for.

    On the right it's less to do with Russia and more about Vladimir Putin himself. There is admiration for the man and 'gut and brain' support for what he represents. They like his aggressive white orthodox ethno-nationalism, his robust rejection of what progressives call minority empowerment and they call 'woke', his attachment to what progressives call outmoded bigotry and they call traditional values.

    Putin is something of a role model for these types. We see this hinted by Farage and more overtly with Donald Trump and those who follow him. Eg I haven't checked Truth Social lately but if I did I bet I'd see lots of 'Vlad's so tough and clever, shame we're stuck with sloppy senile Joe' postings.
    I agree with that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    A NATO enforced no-fly zone would be mental. It would entail the RAF shooting Russian planes out of the sky. It is a non-starter. We need to give Ukraine the mean to shoot Russian planes out of the sky with superior anti-aircraft missiles.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    FTSE below 7200
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    rcs1000 said:

    Antonello Guerrera
    @antoguerrera
    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 50% OF OUR COAL COMES FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 55% OF OUR GAS FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 35% OF OUR OIL COMES FROM RUSSIA


    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1496848585882746881

    I think he means coal imports rather than overall coal, as most coal burnt in Germany is lignite and is locally mined.
    Reported US and UK would like Russia out of the swift payment system but push back coming from Europe and in particular France and Italy who would lose 30 billion euros or more

    Furthermore energy payments to Russia would end thereby seeing retaliation from Russia by cutting off energy to Europe

    There are some posters who seem to delight in trashing the UK and Boris over our actions, when clearly this is very complex and seemingly it is Europe who have the wider consequences and problems in this crisis
    I don't believe many have been uniquely and specifically critical of Britain's response. The UK, so far, have been as useless as the EU and the US.

    You have been one of the key posters condemning the EU over the UK. For a Johnson critic, you are remarkably positive about the sanctions on the 5 small banks and the 3 key Putin personnel.

    Pathetic is pathetic, be that the work of the EU or the UK.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    ...and just in case Nick should continue to make apologies for Corbyn, this is one of the lines in the statement from SWC that Corbyn and all his left wing nutjob supporters signed:

    'in taking this position we do not endorse the nature or conduct of either the Russian or Ukrainian regimes.'

    They want to suggest that the Ukrainian "regime" is equivalent to Russia. FFS!

    Witheringly stupid from Team Corbyn, nonetheless how do we define the reaction from Team Farage/Banks?
    They'd probably like to fellate Putin.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    A NATO enforced no-fly zone would be mental. It would entail the RAF shooting Russian planes out of the sky. It is a non-starter. We need to give Ukraine the mean to shoot Russian planes out of the sky with superior anti-aircraft missiles.
    It could be a bit late for that with reports of Russian transports flung into the airport by Kyiv.
    Any meaningful help has to happen now.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    I've have thought we were up to at least 5/10 apocalypse now...
  • MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    A NATO enforced no-fly zone would be mental. It would entail the RAF shooting Russian planes out of the sky. It is a non-starter. We need to give Ukraine the mean to shoot Russian planes out of the sky with superior anti-aircraft missiles.
    Haven't the Russians already got their S-400 missile system set up all around the border of Ukraine, such that it now covers basically all of the Ukrainian airspace. So its a non-starter unless you want WW3 by attacking their anti aircraft system.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    A NATO enforced no-fly zone would be mental. It would entail the RAF shooting Russian planes out of the sky. It is a non-starter. We need to give Ukraine the mean to shoot Russian planes out of the sky with superior anti-aircraft missiles.
    It could be a bit late for that with reports of Russian transports flung into the airport by Kyiv.
    Any meaningful help has to happen now.
    You're probably right, yet I can't see a scenario where an RAF typhoon gets into a dogfight with a a Russian MiG.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    Yes, if you are out of the system - see Iran - you are unable to do anything which involves banks, internationally.

    For example, the only way that Germany could buy gas from Russia, which it needs, would be literally to send pallets of cash to Russia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    I've have thought we were up to at least 5/10 apocalypse now...
    We are not quite at the point where the file clerks battle with the convicts to see who will run the post apocalypse world. Yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    An honest admission from Merkel's former defence minister.
    https://twitter.com/akk/status/1496803129328816135
    Ich bin so wütend auf uns, weil wir historisch versagt haben. Wir haben nach Georgien, Krim und Donbass nichts vorbereitet haben, was Putin wirklich abgeschreckt hätte.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Gas up 42.5% today
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited February 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    Antonello Guerrera
    @antoguerrera
    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 50% OF OUR COAL COMES FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 55% OF OUR GAS FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 35% OF OUR OIL COMES FROM RUSSIA


    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1496848585882746881

    I think he means coal imports rather than overall coal, as most coal burnt in Germany is lignite and is locally mined.
    Reported US and UK would like Russia out of the swift payment system but push back coming from Europe and in particular France and Italy who would lose 30 billion euros or more

    Furthermore energy payments to Russia would end thereby seeing retaliation from Russia by cutting off energy to Europe

    There are some posters who seem to delight in trashing the UK and Boris over our actions, when clearly this is very complex and seemingly it is Europe who have the wider consequences and problems in this crisis
    I don't believe many have been uniquely and specifically critical of Britain's response. The UK, so far, have been as useless as the EU and the US.

    You have been one of the key posters condemning the EU over the UK. For a Johnson critic, you are remarkably positive about the sanctions on the 5 small banks and the 3 key Putin personnel.

    Pathetic is pathetic, be that the work of the EU or the UK.
    I have not said anything about the UK sanctions as you would suggest, and no I do not think Boris went far enough but as this unfolds it is very scary as to why the president of the european council expressed surprise about the invasion, indeed drawing a rebuke from Sky's correspondent, and now real issues are surfacing with the EU on sanctions
  • Nataliya Vasilyeva
    @Nat_Vasilyeva
    ·
    23m
    About 1,000 people at this anti war protest right now. These are taking away protesters indiscriminately. I was briefly detained even though I was saying repeatedly I’m a journalist.

    https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1496881798680354823
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    A NATO enforced no-fly zone would be mental. It would entail the RAF shooting Russian planes out of the sky. It is a non-starter. We need to give Ukraine the mean to shoot Russian planes out of the sky with superior anti-aircraft missiles.
    It could be a bit late for that with reports of Russian transports flung into the airport by Kyiv.
    Any meaningful help has to happen now.
    You're probably right, yet I can't see a scenario where an RAF typhoon gets into a dogfight with a a Russian MiG.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_(missile)

    You can shoot planes down from a different country, with that....
  • kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?

    There are workarounds for SWIFT, as I understand it. A much bigger deal would be to ban Western banks from interacting with Russian ones. Individual governments can make that call. The US and the UK can do it whenever they want. It would have a major impact if Wall Street and the City were so instructed.

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Antonello Guerrera
    @antoguerrera
    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 50% OF OUR COAL COMES FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 55% OF OUR GAS FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 35% OF OUR OIL COMES FROM RUSSIA


    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1496848585882746881

    Could there be an economic realignment in Europe, with Germany’s dominance being reduced?
  • Yesterday Wallace stated in public, on camera, that essentially we can and should try and beat Russia as in 1853, and today Cleverly thinks he can make a public call for a coup in Russia, which he also presumably thinks is the right way to achieve this goal.

    The competence level of this government is absolutely staggering and shocking. There's no joke about that.

    Calling for the demise of the Putin dictatorship is absolutely the right thing to do but I wouldn't expect an apologist to understand that.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited February 2022

    Evening address from Zelensky. “If you my dear European leaders, my dear world leaders, leaders of the free world, don’t help us today, if you do not strongly help Ukraine, then tomorrow war will knock on your doors."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496884388868595714

    Difficult to argue with that.
    That entirely depends on what the help means.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993
    TimT said:

    Trying to focus on something more positive.

    COVID figures today show that new infections are still at a rate of over a million per month, but hospitalizations and deaths are falling like a stone. I really hope this does mean that HMG are right and that we are now firmly into the endemic phase of COVID.

    A couple of research papers from South Africa and Denmark indicate that omicron BA.2 is not creating a new wave of infections, but rather a prolongation of the BA.1 wave's tail. And that, while it does create breakthrough infections for the vaccinated and those who've had delta or BA.1, hospitalizations and severe outcomes are overwhelmingly in the unvaccinated.

    In British Columbia in Canada, they've done a regression analysis for hospitalisation risk against vaccination state, age, and underlying conditions for the Omicron wave:

    image

    The overall hospitalisation rate against infections is 1.2% for them in this wave (as against 6.2% in previous waves). Partly due to reduced deadliness, partly to wider immunisation.

    I think we have a better immunity distribution than them, so should expect an even lower hospitalisation risk.

    And, of course, with paxlovid coming on-stream and being made available to the higher risk groups, even those yellow boxes can drop by a factor of 10.


  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    edited February 2022
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.

    Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
    Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):

    Zelensky = Centrist liberal
    Putin = Right-wing conservative
    In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
    So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!

    Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
    The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.

    The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.

    It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
    I'm not sure 'authoritarian v liberal' is quite the full essence of it, although it does explain a lot. The softhead pro-Russia sentiment on the left has 2 main drivers imo - a sentimental attachment to the cradle of communism and a crude anti-Western world view in which enemies of the West (and esp the US) become allies to be rooted for.

    On the right it's less to do with Russia and more about Vladimir Putin himself. There is admiration for the man and 'gut and brain' support for what he represents. They like his aggressive white orthodox ethno-nationalism, his robust rejection of what progressives call minority empowerment and they call 'woke', his attachment to what progressives call outmoded bigotry and they call traditional values.

    Putin is something of a role model for these types. We see this hinted by Farage and more overtly with Donald Trump and those who follow him. Eg I haven't checked Truth Social lately but if I did I bet I'd see lots of 'Vlad's so tough and clever, shame we're stuck with sloppy senile Joe' postings.
    I agree with that.
    Farage is a puzzle though. There are two broad strands of anti-federalism - the libertarian strand (too many rules) and the - for want of a better term right now - nationalist (too many foreigners). Farage, from memory, started very much on the first, though he did harness a lot of the second. But then he moved on to a pro-Trump position - which if I were seeking to explain would do so only through him enjoying being a contrarian* - and then he's moved on to a pro-Putin position. Which I'd struggle to explain at all. Certainly it's not consistent with his initial too-many-rules anti-federalism.
    Perhaps someone's given him a big bag of money. I hear that can sometimes change a mind.

    *surely he couldn't be OUR contrarian?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Antonello Guerrera
    @antoguerrera
    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 50% OF OUR COAL COMES FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 55% OF OUR GAS FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 35% OF OUR OIL COMES FROM RUSSIA


    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1496848585882746881

    I think he means coal imports rather than overall coal, as most coal burnt in Germany is lignite and is locally mined.
    Reported US and UK would like Russia out of the swift payment system but push back coming from Europe and in particular France and Italy who would lose 30 billion euros or more

    Furthermore energy payments to Russia would end thereby seeing retaliation from Russia by cutting off energy to Europe

    There are some posters who seem to delight in trashing the UK and Boris over our actions, when clearly this is very complex and seemingly it is Europe who have the wider consequences and problems in this crisis
    I don't believe many have been uniquely and specifically critical of Britain's response. The UK, so far, have been as useless as the EU and the US.

    You have been one of the key posters condemning the EU over the UK. For a Johnson critic, you are remarkably positive about the sanctions on the 5 small banks and the 3 key Putin personnel.

    Pathetic is pathetic, be that the work of the EU or the UK.
    Yes, all Western nations have failed in stopping Putin, the UK included. Clearly some see saying that as being unpatriotic when we could instead be criticising others rather than our own leaders.

    For the avoidance of any doubt Putin is of course ultimately wholly responsible.
  • Sean_F said:

    ...and just in case Nick should continue to make apologies for Corbyn, this is one of the lines in the statement from SWC that Corbyn and all his left wing nutjob supporters signed:

    'in taking this position we do not endorse the nature or conduct of either the Russian or Ukrainian regimes.'

    They want to suggest that the Ukrainian "regime" is equivalent to Russia. FFS!

    Witheringly stupid from Team Corbyn, nonetheless how do we define the reaction from Team Farage/Banks?
    They'd probably like to fellate Putin.
    Back in the day they would be called what they are: traitors.

    So much for Farage and co wrapping themselves in the Union Jack flag.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited February 2022

    Yesterday Wallace stated in public, on camera, that essentially we can and should try and beat Russia as in 1853, and today Cleverly thinks he can make a public call for a coup in Russia, which he also presumably thinks is the right way to achieve this goal.

    The competence level of this government is absolutely staggering and shocking. There's no joke about that.

    Calling for the demise of the Putin dictatorship is absolutely the right thing to do but I wouldn't expect an apologist to understand that.
    One of the best candidates of recent PB posts for one that surely doesn't merit a reply.
  • Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue. Really

    https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1496858172040130567
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.

    Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
    I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
    Doesn't sound good

    The Independent
    @Independent
    ·
    11m
    BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496862467414106112?s=20&t=-eN-FBxzBSy4VJwNhAP9CQ

    BUT: fog of war and all that
    Hands up anyone else who thought until 3 minutes ago that Chernobyl was in Russia...
    IIRC, it's in Ukraine, but very close to Belorus.

    If the wind is blowing the wrong way, it could be pretty awful for Minsk.
    I've been there, and you are quite right. The nuclear plant is in Ukraine, just, but the Exclusion Zone straddles the Ukraine-Belarus border, and both countries were horribly afflicted

    It is one of the eeriest places on earth. Fighting there is madness
    Putin is mad.

    Its scary as learning about things like the Cuban Missile Crisis and similar in the past I at least knew (a) it was in the past and (b) Khrushchev and Kennedy were both sane.

    Putin seems to have lost his grip on sanity. That is scary.
    What would be even more scary would be if Trump was POTUS and they weren’t on the same side as each other.
    Yes, Joe Biden may be ineffective and doddery, but I think we can at least safely assume he thinks that nuclear war is probably bad and something to be avoided.
  • You have got to be fecking kidding me...



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    MaxPB said:

    What Ukraine really needs is a big symbolic short term victory, shooting a few Russian planes down and making Putin eat expensive losses will be the only way to resolve this. We should be enabling Ukraine to do this.

    You are right, but the Ukrainian leader's words are echoing around the world.

    The Ukrainians are fighting. We have to help them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    NEW SNAP POLL🇺🇦🇷🇺

    🇬🇧41% say NATO military response wld be JUSTIFIED
    🇬🇧32% WANT it to happen, 38% EXPECT it
    🇬🇧55% say current UK sanctions don't go far enough
    🇬🇧53% want economic sanctions against Rus. leaders

    1,108 UK adults, 24th Feb
    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1496886172408242176?s=20&t=3MWmhTt1RFNidKlIzhGgWQ
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.

    Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
    I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
    Doesn't sound good

    The Independent
    @Independent
    ·
    11m
    BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496862467414106112?s=20&t=-eN-FBxzBSy4VJwNhAP9CQ

    BUT: fog of war and all that
    Hands up anyone else who thought until 3 minutes ago that Chernobyl was in Russia...
    IIRC, it's in Ukraine, but very close to Belorus.

    If the wind is blowing the wrong way, it could be pretty awful for Minsk.
    I've been there, and you are quite right. The nuclear plant is in Ukraine, just, but the Exclusion Zone straddles the Ukraine-Belarus border, and both countries were horribly afflicted

    It is one of the eeriest places on earth. Fighting there is madness
    Putin is mad.

    Its scary as learning about things like the Cuban Missile Crisis and similar in the past I at least knew (a) it was in the past and (b) Khrushchev and Kennedy were both sane.

    Putin seems to have lost his grip on sanity. That is scary.
    What would be even more scary would be if Trump was POTUS and they weren’t on the same side as each other.
    Yes, Joe Biden may be ineffective and doddery, but I think we can at least safely assume he thinks that nuclear war is probably bad and something to be avoided.
    PS wind appears to be blowing from the south in Minsk. Not good for Belarus if nuclear waste coming out of Chernobyl.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
  • Yesterday Wallace stated in public, on camera, that essentially we can and should try and beat Russia as in 1853, and today Cleverly thinks he can make a public call for a coup in Russia, which he also presumably thinks is the right way to achieve this goal.

    The competence level of this government is absolutely staggering and shocking. There's no joke about that.

    Calling for the demise of the Putin dictatorship is absolutely the right thing to do but I wouldn't expect an apologist to understand that.
    One of the best candidates of PB posts for one that surely doesn't merit a reply.
    Whilst I sympathise with your post, haven't you just replied.....and provoked more replies too.....
  • kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    Yes SWIFT is a massive deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue. Really

    https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1496858172040130567

    Makes sense to me. All those people going to the gallows should also stop struggling, it's just preventing a swifter return to peace and quiet on the platform.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    With regard to sanctions, the most effective way of implementing them would seem to me to be a maximalist approach now, with a clear pathway out of sanctions for Russia as conditions are met. This sanction will be lifted when xxx happens. However, still not sure how effective this will be when China will pick up any slack.

    In the longer term, there needs to be a vision for mainland Europe and Russia that everyone is working toward, rather than everyone fighting 'against' everything. Personally I would support the EU growing Eastwards, but not as a prelude to NATO membership for those states. It seems to me that Russia should welcome a closer partnership with the EU, because in the long term, China is a far bigger threat to Russia, current friendship notwithstanding.

    However, the existence of what would then be a very powerful continental European influence connected with real military muscle would imo be very strongly opposed by the USA.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    You have got to be fecking kidding me...



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say

    That won't last
  • You have got to be fecking kidding me...



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say

    It's not even in Europe, and never likely to be after today.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1496886777591836676


    Hey remember when Donald Trump tried to condition military aid to Ukraine on Ukraine's president providing dirt on Trump's political rival and then the Republican Party and its associated propaganda apparatus were virtually united in saying that was fine?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Sky News: Fighting reported in the western city of Lviv.

    Just checked and the western border of Ukraine is only 300 miles from Austria and 400 miles from Germany.
  • Will history record these as the Guilty men (and a woman)?




  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    With regard to sanctions, the most effective way of implementing them would seem to me to be a maximalist approach now, with a clear pathway out of sanctions for Russia as conditions are met. This sanction will be lifted when xxx happens. However, still not sure how effective this will be when China will pick up any slack.

    In the longer term, there needs to be a vision for mainland Europe and Russia that everyone is working toward, rather than everyone fighting 'against' everything. Personally I would support the EU growing Eastwards, but not as a prelude to NATO membership for those states. It seems to me that Russia should welcome a closer partnership with the EU, because in the long term, China is a far bigger threat to Russia, current friendship notwithstanding.

    However, the existence of what would then be a very powerful continental European influence connected with real military muscle would imo be very strongly opposed by the USA.

    The idea that Russia will ever be closer to the USA and us than a fellow authoritarian regime like China is very far fetched
  • Dominic Cummings having a go today at Tory party funding by Putin cronies. That's a surprise, I had assumed he was all in favour of that!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Antonello Guerrera
    @antoguerrera
    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 50% OF OUR COAL COMES FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 55% OF OUR GAS FROM RUSSIA

    GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 35% OF OUR OIL COMES FROM RUSSIA


    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1496848585882746881

    Could there be an economic realignment in Europe, with Germany’s dominance being reduced?
    The Germans are going to be forced to pick a side here. The cancellation of Nord Stream 2 is an encouraging sign but it does nothing with regard to existing trade.

    The Poles and especially the Baltic States must be terrified right now. If Germany (and its fellow incrementalists heel draggers) won't back them by taking the pain on ceasing to buy Russian energy, then it'll hole both NATO and the EU below the water line.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598
    edited February 2022
    TimS said:

    You have got to be fecking kidding me...



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say

    That won't last
    What if it was Pussy Riot? I'm sure they could do a suitable number.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    Yes SWIFT is a massive deal.
    SWIFT is basically international banking - without it access to SWIFT Russia is not going to get money in or out of Russia.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Will history record these as the Guilty men (and a woman)?




    Hopefully yes.
  • kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
    Yes SWIFT is a massive deal.
    Throw them out. Now.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Dominic Cummings having a go today at Tory party funding by Putin cronies. That's a surprise, I had assumed he was all in favour of that!

    He was in favour of a lot of things until he got his arse fired, now he suddenly was against everything bad that ever happened.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Alistair said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
    Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    BBC reporting EU sanctions agreed.
    No idea what they are yet.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    HYUFD said:

    With regard to sanctions, the most effective way of implementing them would seem to me to be a maximalist approach now, with a clear pathway out of sanctions for Russia as conditions are met. This sanction will be lifted when xxx happens. However, still not sure how effective this will be when China will pick up any slack.

    In the longer term, there needs to be a vision for mainland Europe and Russia that everyone is working toward, rather than everyone fighting 'against' everything. Personally I would support the EU growing Eastwards, but not as a prelude to NATO membership for those states. It seems to me that Russia should welcome a closer partnership with the EU, because in the long term, China is a far bigger threat to Russia, current friendship notwithstanding.

    However, the existence of what would then be a very powerful continental European influence connected with real military muscle would imo be very strongly opposed by the USA.

    The idea that Russia will ever be closer to the USA and us than a fellow authoritarian regime like China is very far fetched
    Russia shares a lot more in common culturally with Western Europe than it does with China. And Russia claims to be democratic (though of course so does China...).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    Roger said:

    Alistair said:

    Roger said:

    As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.

    The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.

    Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.

    You are a joke.
    Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.

    When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
    Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.

    Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"

    Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
    Yep and deporting vast numbers of the original inhabitants to the other side of the Soviet Union also helps. I wold have hoped that an internationalist like Roger might have been aware of these things.
    The Jewish Autonomous Oblast is still around with us today (in its ludicrous location deep in the Russian Far East). But even more fascinating still is the Volga German Republic (straddling what are today's Volgograd and Saratov Oblasts). Between 1918 and 1941, there was part of Russia with a German majority (66% at its peak) with German as one of its official languages.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_German_Autonomous_Soviet_Socialist_Republic
    There was, before 1945, many German-speaking people scattered across eastern Europe, who had been there a couple of centuries or so. Come the end of World War II and most of those populations fled or were sent (ethnically cleansed) west to Germany.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Will history record these as the Guilty men (and a woman)?





    Germany's leadership of Europe goes f8cking pear shaped. AGAIN.

    And Britain has to clean up the mess. AGAIN.

    We've got to remove their Europe domination license after this. Absolute effing sh*wer.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    edited February 2022
    Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.

    Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2022
    Probably not the reaction they were briefed to expect:

    Ukrainian woman confronts Russian soldiers in Henychesk, Kherson region. Asks them why they came to our land and urges to put sunflower seeds in their pockets [so that flowers would grow when they die on the Ukrainian land]

    https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1496866811110834176?
  • kle4 said:

    Dominic Cummings having a go today at Tory party funding by Putin cronies. That's a surprise, I had assumed he was all in favour of that!

    He was in favour of a lot of things until he got his arse fired, now he suddenly was against everything bad that ever happened.
    I certainly wouldn't trust him an inch but find it a surprising thing for him to bring up.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    kle4 said:

    Dominic Cummings having a go today at Tory party funding by Putin cronies. That's a surprise, I had assumed he was all in favour of that!

    He was in favour of a lot of things until he got his arse fired, now he suddenly was against everything bad that ever happened.
    Yep. He’s a big fat aftertimer. And very good at it, too. He’s fooled a fair few journalists in his time.
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 159
    On Brexit: I voted Remain, but as far as I can see Brexit is irrelevant to this war. NATO is relevant. If the EU were a defensive alliance it would be relevant. A certain segment of the French elite would rather like to replace NATO with an EU defence force, though only if a great and worthy nation (i.e. France) was its permanent commander; and a segment of the German political elite would not particularly mind outsourcing their defence to such an alliance. But most European countries, particularly in the East, probably prefer NATO, because it includes the USA and is not seen to act solely in the interests of any single country.

    On the PM: We do seem to have a history of replacing prime ministers during wars when they weren't up to snuff. We also have a history of prime ministers who, despite being very tricky, even corrupt, politically, and having dysfunctional personal lives, managed specific national crises well.
    Despite having been a pretty awful Foreign Secretary, I think Johnson's been pretty good on foreign policy. If he is replaced, the new PM ought to try to keep John Bew as an advisor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Probably not the reaction they were briefed to expect:

    Ukrainian woman confronts Russian soldiers in Henychesk, Kherson region. Asks them why they came to our land and urges to put sunflower seeds in their pockets [so that flowers would grow when they die on the Ukrainian land]

    https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1496866811110834176?

    Russian social media needs to be flooded with demoralising messages.
  • TimS said:

    You have got to be fecking kidding me...



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say

    That won't last
    I am not sure if its a punishment to be banned or invited to compete. I doubt Putin is filled with regret and angst worrying if Russia gets to sing at the eurovision
  • Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue. Really

    https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1496858172040130567

    A very smart idea from Edward Lucas, who I think is a former LibDem Parliamentary candidate:

    The US to announce that foreign politicians and senior officials who sit on Russian boards or act as consultants to Russian companies must resign at once, or be blacklisted from visiting the United States. Other countries to follow suit.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Alistair said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
    Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
    Hmmm....

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited February 2022
    Johnson on his feet in the House.
  • LDLF said:

    On Brexit: I voted Remain, but as far as I can see Brexit is irrelevant to this war. NATO is relevant. If the EU were a defensive alliance it would be relevant. A certain segment of the French elite would rather like to replace NATO with an EU defence force, though only if a great and worthy nation (i.e. France) was its permanent commander; and a segment of the German political elite would not particularly mind outsourcing their defence to such an alliance. But most European countries, particularly in the East, probably prefer NATO, because it includes the USA and is not seen to act solely in the interests of any single country.

    On the PM: We do seem to have a history of replacing prime ministers during wars when they weren't up to snuff. We also have a history of prime ministers who, despite being very tricky, even corrupt, politically, and having dysfunctional personal lives, managed specific national crises well.
    Despite having been a pretty awful Foreign Secretary, I think Johnson's been pretty good on foreign policy. If he is replaced, the new PM ought to try to keep John Bew as an advisor.

    If Trump wins in 2024 NATO is done for and some kind of European alliance will have to replace it.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    TimS said:

    You have got to be fecking kidding me...



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say

    That won't last
    I am not sure if its a punishment to be banned or invited to compete. I doubt Putin is filled with regret and angst worrying if Russia gets to sing at the eurovision
    Of course he and many wouldn't care about Eurovision. But its presumably about locking out Russian citizens from global matters generally, who will grumble to the regime.

    But then again they can engage in widespread cheating and still go to the Olympics, so no rules exist.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who are real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.

    Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.

    Right now I think our only real friends are the Ukrainians.
  • kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?

    There are workarounds for SWIFT, as I understand it. A much bigger deal would be to ban Western banks from interacting with Russian ones. Individual governments can make that call. The US and the UK can do it whenever they want. It would have a major impact if Wall Street and the City were so instructed.

    As I understand it, disconnnecting Russia from SWIFT would be very serious and likely to impact Russian GDP by about 4%. I assume that would take time to work through but it's a big hit, especially for a dysfunctional economy that will have the added military burden of its reckless adventure into Ukraine.

    I think it is because of the level of impact that the SWIFT weapon has been held back so far but I would expect it to be implemented now.

    The idea of a no-fly zone sounds very iffy to me though. How do you impose it? Bringing down transport planes is an act of war and brings NATO into direct conflict with Russia. That wouldn't be good, but fortunately the idea is fanciful.
  • Johnson on his feet in the HoC
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    MISTY said:

    Will history record these as the Guilty men (and a woman)?





    Germany's leadership of Europe goes f8cking pear shaped. AGAIN.

    And Britain has to clean up the mess. AGAIN.

    We've got to remove their Europe domination license after this. Absolute effing sh*wer.
    You're swimming against the tide though. Our "allies" within the EU were nations like the Netherlands and Denmark who were more than happy to hide behind our opposition of idiotic German decisions and policies while buddying up to them as they were the biggest bullies in the room. Europe is a continent of appeasement to the biggest bully in the room. Their overwhelming desire for "unity" means the alpha country will always get it's way. Merkel got her way when she stone walled Dave on migration reforms and ensuring a UK veto on financial regulations as the biggest player in the room. Our "allies" in the EU supported our positions on both points in private but publicly came out with the "unity" position which Germany proposed of giving the UK no concessions.

    I said it at the time, the price of keeping the UK in the EU was, IMO, very low and the cost to the EU of the UK leaving was very, very high, to an almost existential degree. This is playing out right now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited February 2022

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?

    There are workarounds for SWIFT, as I understand it. A much bigger deal would be to ban Western banks from interacting with Russian ones. Individual governments can make that call. The US and the UK can do it whenever they want. It would have a major impact if Wall Street and the City were so instructed.

    As I understand it, disconnnecting Russia from SWIFT would be very serious and likely to impact Russian GDP by about 4%. I assume that would take time to work through but it's a big hit, especially for a dysfunctional economy that will have the added military burden of its reckless adventure into Ukraine.

    I think it is because of the level of impact that the SWIFT weapon has been held back so far but I would expect it to be implemented now.

    The idea of a no-fly zone sounds very iffy to me though. How do you impose it? Bringing down transport planes is an act of war and brings NATO into direct conflict with Russia. That wouldn't be good, but fortunately the idea is fanciful.
    Looks like Boris and Biden have banned Russia from swift payment system here and in the US
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    HYUFD said:

    With regard to sanctions, the most effective way of implementing them would seem to me to be a maximalist approach now, with a clear pathway out of sanctions for Russia as conditions are met. This sanction will be lifted when xxx happens. However, still not sure how effective this will be when China will pick up any slack.

    In the longer term, there needs to be a vision for mainland Europe and Russia that everyone is working toward, rather than everyone fighting 'against' everything. Personally I would support the EU growing Eastwards, but not as a prelude to NATO membership for those states. It seems to me that Russia should welcome a closer partnership with the EU, because in the long term, China is a far bigger threat to Russia, current friendship notwithstanding.

    However, the existence of what would then be a very powerful continental European influence connected with real military muscle would imo be very strongly opposed by the USA.

    The idea that Russia will ever be closer to the USA and us than a fellow authoritarian regime like China is very far fetched
    Russia shares a lot more in common culturally with Western Europe than it does with China. And Russia claims to be democratic (though of course so does China...).
    Maybe Russia under Yeltsin, or even Gorbachev.

    Under Putin Russia still has the same state overseen economy as China and the same authoritarian and repressive laws.

    Russia like China is also looking to aggressively expand its territory, for Russia and Ukraine read China and Taiwan.

    Even religious heritage wise Russia is Russian Orthodox, not Roman Catholic or Protestant like western Europe.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Roger said:

    Alistair said:

    Roger said:

    As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.

    The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.

    Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.

    You are a joke.
    Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.

    When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
    Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.

    Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"

    Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
    What I found interesting is that 50 years later there were Russian language schools and Ukrainian language schools which only amalgamated after the fall of the Soviet Union.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    I won't be sorry to see the Russian gangsters kicked out of London. Hopefully that will happen now.
  • SWIFT action by UK and US
  • Johnson hinting SWIFT exclusion not agreed in G7 - in favour of it, but important to maintain G7 unity.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?

    There are workarounds for SWIFT, as I understand it. A much bigger deal would be to ban Western banks from interacting with Russian ones. Individual governments can make that call. The US and the UK can do it whenever they want. It would have a major impact if Wall Street and the City were so instructed.

    As I understand it, disconnnecting Russia from SWIFT would be very serious and likely to impact Russian GDP by about 4%. I assume that would take time to work through but it's a big hit, especially for a dysfunctional economy that will have the added military burden of its reckless adventure into Ukraine.

    I think it is because of the level of impact that the SWIFT weapon has been held back so far but I would expect it to be implemented now.

    The idea of a no-fly zone sounds very iffy to me though. How do you impose it? Bringing down transport planes is an act of war and brings NATO into direct conflict with Russia. That wouldn't be good, but fortunately the idea is fanciful.
    Looks like Boris and Biden have banned Russia from swift payment system here and in the US
    A long list of measures being announced. I would like to hear what the analysts who understand these things have to say about what has been said, but - whilst, amongst other things, an asset freeze is to be imposed on VTB (a consequential bank rather than the shitty little ones that were targeted before) - it sounds like SWIFT access hasn't been guillotined. Yet.
  • Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putin-s-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=entnewsntp
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited February 2022

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?

    There are workarounds for SWIFT, as I understand it. A much bigger deal would be to ban Western banks from interacting with Russian ones. Individual governments can make that call. The US and the UK can do it whenever they want. It would have a major impact if Wall Street and the City were so instructed.

    As I understand it, disconnnecting Russia from SWIFT would be very serious and likely to impact Russian GDP by about 4%. I assume that would take time to work through but it's a big hit, especially for a dysfunctional economy that will have the added military burden of its reckless adventure into Ukraine.

    I think it is because of the level of impact that the SWIFT weapon has been held back so far but I would expect it to be implemented now.

    The idea of a no-fly zone sounds very iffy to me though. How do you impose it? Bringing down transport planes is an act of war and brings NATO into direct conflict with Russia. That wouldn't be good, but fortunately the idea is fanciful.
    Looks like Boris and Biden have banned Russia from swift payment system here and in the US
    I don’t think so. Sounds to me like they couldn’t get agreement.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    PM: "no creeping normalisation" of what the Russians have done.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.

    Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.

    I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Alistair said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
    Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
    Hmmm....

    image
    I was looking at the numbers in hospital each day. Hospitalisations and admissions were both steadily reducing until February 13, since when admissions have levelled off. Hopefully the reduction in admissions over the last few days will continue, followed by a sustained reduction in hospitalisations.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Alistair said:

    Roger said:

    As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.

    The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.

    Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.

    You are a joke.
    Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.

    When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
    Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.

    Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"

    Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
    What I found interesting is that 50 years later there were Russian language schools and Ukrainian language schools which only amalgamated after the fall of the Soviet Union.
    Have you been to Northern Ireland? Do you know why the schools there are segregated by religion?
  • pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?

    There are workarounds for SWIFT, as I understand it. A much bigger deal would be to ban Western banks from interacting with Russian ones. Individual governments can make that call. The US and the UK can do it whenever they want. It would have a major impact if Wall Street and the City were so instructed.

    As I understand it, disconnnecting Russia from SWIFT would be very serious and likely to impact Russian GDP by about 4%. I assume that would take time to work through but it's a big hit, especially for a dysfunctional economy that will have the added military burden of its reckless adventure into Ukraine.

    I think it is because of the level of impact that the SWIFT weapon has been held back so far but I would expect it to be implemented now.

    The idea of a no-fly zone sounds very iffy to me though. How do you impose it? Bringing down transport planes is an act of war and brings NATO into direct conflict with Russia. That wouldn't be good, but fortunately the idea is fanciful.
    Looks like Boris and Biden have banned Russia from swift payment system here and in the US
    A long list of measures being announced. I would like to hear what the analysts who understand these things have to say about what has been said, but - whilst, amongst other things, an asset freeze is to be imposed on VTB (a consequential bank rather than the shitty little ones that were targeted before) - it sounds like SWIFT access hasn't been guillotined. Yet.
    On swift I may be mistaken but it is clear Boris and Biden have taken action on financial transaction in pounds and dollars
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Johnson hinting SWIFT exclusion not agreed in G7 - in favour of it, but important to maintain G7 unity.

    No it isn't. If it cannot be unified on something important and significant, what good is it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putin-s-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=entnewsntp

    The former fucked with our nuclear deterrent base. Brexit didn't.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Alistair said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
    Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
    Hmmm....

    image
    I was looking at the numbers in hospital each day. Hospitalisations and admissions were both steadily reducing until February 13, since when admissions have levelled off. Hopefully the reduction in admissions over the last few days will continue, followed by a sustained reduction in hospitalisations.
    If you look at the graph, it shows that short term variations can dominate - you need to "zoom out".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited February 2022

    Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putin-s-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=entnewsntp

    There's no evidence that Russia successfully exerted any influence on any British election/referendum or any American election.
  • So SWIFT exclusion is apparently still on the table......is that after he goes for Latvia, Poland or Slovakia?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Alistair said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
    Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
    Hmmm....

    image
    I was looking at the numbers in hospital each day. Hospitalisations and admissions were both steadily reducing until February 13, since when admissions have levelled off. Hopefully the reduction in admissions over the last few days will continue, followed by a sustained reduction in hospitalisations.
    If you look at the graph, it shows that short term variations can dominate - you need to "zoom out".
    I hope so. I don’t want Sturgeon to have any excuse not to end Covid restrictions.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putin-s-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=entnewsntp

    There's no evidence that Russia successfully exerted any influence on any British election/referendum or any American election.
    What kind of evidence would you accept?
  • Sean_F said:

    ...and just in case Nick should continue to make apologies for Corbyn, this is one of the lines in the statement from SWC that Corbyn and all his left wing nutjob supporters signed:

    'in taking this position we do not endorse the nature or conduct of either the Russian or Ukrainian regimes.'

    They want to suggest that the Ukrainian "regime" is equivalent to Russia. FFS!

    Witheringly stupid from Team Corbyn, nonetheless how do we define the reaction from Team Farage/Banks?
    They'd probably like to fellate Putin.
    Back in the day they would be called what they are: traitors.

    So much for Farage and co wrapping themselves in the Union Jack flag.
    It is always good to be suspicious of those that wrap themselves in the flag. they are nearly always the ones that run a mile from the colours as soon as the shit hits.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Alistair said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1
    - In Hospital down
    - MV beds down. Halved in a month...
    - Admissions down. R solidly below 1
    - Deaths down

    image

    Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
    Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
    Hmmm....

    image
    I was looking at the numbers in hospital each day. Hospitalisations and admissions were both steadily reducing until February 13, since when admissions have levelled off. Hopefully the reduction in admissions over the last few days will continue, followed by a sustained reduction in hospitalisations.
    If you look at the graph, it shows that short term variations can dominate - you need to "zoom out".
    I hope so. I don’t want Sturgeon to have any excuse not to end Covid restrictions.
    Daily numbers are dangerous for that reason. Look at the wider graph, trendiness, seven day averages.
  • Will history record these as the Guilty men (and a woman)?




    Is that Schroeder on the left?
  • pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496877445332582407

    I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…

    No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.

    I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?

    There are workarounds for SWIFT, as I understand it. A much bigger deal would be to ban Western banks from interacting with Russian ones. Individual governments can make that call. The US and the UK can do it whenever they want. It would have a major impact if Wall Street and the City were so instructed.

    As I understand it, disconnnecting Russia from SWIFT would be very serious and likely to impact Russian GDP by about 4%. I assume that would take time to work through but it's a big hit, especially for a dysfunctional economy that will have the added military burden of its reckless adventure into Ukraine.

    I think it is because of the level of impact that the SWIFT weapon has been held back so far but I would expect it to be implemented now.

    The idea of a no-fly zone sounds very iffy to me though. How do you impose it? Bringing down transport planes is an act of war and brings NATO into direct conflict with Russia. That wouldn't be good, but fortunately the idea is fanciful.
    Looks like Boris and Biden have banned Russia from swift payment system here and in the US
    A long list of measures being announced. I would like to hear what the analysts who understand these things have to say about what has been said, but - whilst, amongst other things, an asset freeze is to be imposed on VTB (a consequential bank rather than the shitty little ones that were targeted before) - it sounds like SWIFT access hasn't been guillotined. Yet.
    On swift I may be mistaken but it is clear Boris and Biden have taken action on financial transaction in pounds and dollars

    Given where the Russians do most of their trading that will have a significant impact. And, unlike with SWIFT, there will be no workarounds.

This discussion has been closed.