"Putin doesn’t use a mobile phone or the internet. His obsession with secrecy means he even limits his use of paper and often gives orders verbally in person."
Wonder if he does the writing on one piece of paper on a glass sheet thing?
Capital - lower general tax rates did not help business capital investment. Future tax policy to be targeted and strategic, cutting taxes on business investment - probably means higher capital allowances following the end of the super deduction?
People - adult skill development is poor, reform complexity and confusing in the current system of adult training (no free market here), is the tax system (apprenticeship levy) doing enough to incentivise business to invest in right kind of training.
Ideas - not enough business research and development, AI important, R&D tax reliefs not doing a good job in incentivising R&D despite high cost. Change visa system to encourage entrepreneurs and highly skilled persons.
The message (apart from tax cuts do not pay for themselves) is that tinkering with the tax system to encourage specific behaviour is back.
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
I agree grotesque. But what’s the lesson to learn? Politicians too influenced by money, not vague concepts in dusty parts of their minds about sovereignty, democracy, the right to self determination.
Has there been no failure at all of western politicians, western intelligence services being able to influence politicians far enough out from this to make a difference, or no failure of Capitalism?
No? Schroeder saying that suggests all three to me.
I have been comparing this to Lady Thatcher and the miners strike she won. Putin is Lady Thatcher in spending years preparing to be insulated when the miners withdrawing labour. Sanctions on Russia this afternoon is the miners withdrawing labour.
Whilst at lunchtime Boris, on behalf of the UK people, declared economic war on Russia, as long as it takes till Putin is gone.
Anyone wish to counter argue there has been no political, intelligence and capitalism failure? 🙄
Today has to be a day to learn lessons, and act upon them.
Tough on Schroeder. Tough on the causes of Schroeder.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Indeed. The only difference is that the far right is an irrelevancy in UK politics, whereas the far left's (much diminished from 2019, but still tangible) influence over the Labour party means they very much aren't.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
"Putin doesn’t use a mobile phone or the internet. His obsession with secrecy means he even limits his use of paper and often gives orders verbally in person."
Mafia boss.
Also suggests he is seriously scared of being whacked. Like any mafioso/dictator
There were reports last week that many in the Russian military are seriously unhappy with this Ukrainian shit, thinking it is far too risky and could easily become another Afghanistan....
What contribution is being made to the economic sanctions against Russia by UK territories?
British Virgin Islands (British Overseas Territory)? Isle of Man (Crown Dependency)? Cayman Islands (British Overseas Territory)? Guernsey (Crown Dependency)? Anguilla (British Overseas Territory)? Jersey (Crown Dependency)? Gibraltar (British Overseas Territory)?
Surely these bastions of Britishness can do something to help in the specialist financial services field? Or are BOTs and CDs unable to assist much in this hour of peril for the principle of national self-determination - to which they are all deeply wedded?
A bit more trolling for Putin from another Useful Idiot Scottish Nationalist
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Are you categorising Trump and Farage as representatives of the authoritarian right? I hope so because there have been moments on here when you have supported Trump over Democrats because he is "of the Right".
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
This isn't 2019. This is 2022. Putin's party "United Russia" is right-wing conservative.
Its extremely statist, that is not right-wing conservative. If anything it is left-wing conservative, but it is more dictatorial than either left or right.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the #Chornobyl_NPP. Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated. Reported this to @SwedishPM . This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Corbyn roundly condemned Putin today. Because he's basically a British pacifist, he's known for being anti-war conducted by Britain, but it misreads him to think he's therefore in favour of a war conducted by somebody else. He's rigidly consistent, to a degree that I suspect disconcerts some of his usual more, um, flexible allies.
Capital - lower general tax rates did not help business capital investment. Future tax policy to be targeted and strategic, cutting taxes on business investment - probably means higher capital allowances following the end of the super deduction?
People - adult skill development is poor, reform complexity and confusing in the current system of adult training (no free market here), is the tax system (apprenticeship levy) doing enough to incentivise business to invest in right kind of training.
Ideas - not enough business research and development, AI important, R&D tax reliefs not doing a good job in incentivising R&D despite high cost. Change visa system to encourage entrepreneurs and highly skilled persons.
The message (apart from tax cuts do not pay for themselves) is that tinkering with the tax system to encourage specific behaviour is back.
I read the report in the Telegraph last night.
Sunak is now not much more than an HM Treasury glove puppet. They are keeping that money, all of it, and if Ministers want any back it is going to have to come with spending cuts.
Tax cuts under the tories are quite clearly never coming. Ever.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
"Putin doesn’t use a mobile phone or the internet. His obsession with secrecy means he even limits his use of paper and often gives orders verbally in person."
Mafia boss.
Also suggests he is seriously scared of being whacked. Like any mafioso/dictator
There were reports last week that many in the Russian military are seriously unhappy with this Ukrainian shit, thinking it is far too risky and could easily become another Afghanistan....
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Corbyn roundly condemned Putin today. Because he's basically a British pacifist, he's known for being anti-war conducted by Britain, but it misreads him to think he's therefore in favour of a war conducted by somebody else. He's rigidly consistent, to a degree that I suspect disconcerts some of his usual more, um, flexible allies.
Even Le Pen and Zemmour have condemned Putin's invasion today too.
However there is no doubt they and Corbyn have been much weaker on Putin than Johnson and Macron have been
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Hands up anyone else who thought until 3 minutes ago that Chernobyl was in Russia...
IIRC, it's in Ukraine, but very close to Belorus.
If the wind is blowing the wrong way, it could be pretty awful for Minsk.
I've been there, and you are quite right. The nuclear plant is in Ukraine, just, but the Exclusion Zone straddles the Ukraine-Belarus border, and both countries were horribly afflicted
It is one of the eeriest places on earth. Fighting there is madness
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
This isn't 2019. This is 2022. Putin's party "United Russia" is right-wing conservative.
Its extremely statist, that is not right-wing conservative. If anything it is left-wing conservative, but it is more dictatorial than either left or right.
There's a specific type of authoritarian regime that I find very difficult to classify into left and right. China is another - in some ways ultra-conservative economically in that there is little or no regulation of capitalist monopolies, almost non-existent labour rights or social protections, but on the other hand as you say highly statist, with central power conferred through cronyism and favours, and distorted markets.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Are you categorising Trump and Farage as representatives of the authoritarian right? I hope so because there have been moments on here when you have supported Trump over Democrats because he is "of the Right".
I only would have supported Trump over Sanders, I made clear I would have voted for Biden over Trump in 2020
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Indeed. The only difference is that the far right is an irrelevancy in UK politics, whereas the far left's (much diminished from 2019, but still tangible) influence over the Labour party means they very much aren't.
I guess your idea of what "far right" is might be different to some others. I am an ex-Tory activist and I would say that there are plenty of people in the Conservative Party who are as far from the median as Corbyn is in the other direction
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Corbyn roundly condemned Putin today. Because he's basically a British pacifist, he's known for being anti-war conducted by Britain, but it misreads him to think he's therefore in favour of a war conducted by somebody else. He's rigidly consistent, to a degree that I suspect disconcerts some of his usual more, um, flexible allies.
Corbyn called this wrong, he called Salisbury wrong. His motives may be honourable, nonetheless he appeases Putin. A man who detests and punishes weakness.
Corbyn needs to put on the sack cloth shirt and retreat to consider how wrong he has been for his entire life.
He may not be a wicked man, but he is dangerously foolish.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Hands up anyone else who thought until 3 minutes ago that Chernobyl was in Russia...
IIRC, it's in Ukraine, but very close to Belorus.
If the wind is blowing the wrong way, it could be pretty awful for Minsk.
I've been there, and you are quite right. The nuclear plant is in Ukraine, just, but the Exclusion Zone straddles the Ukraine-Belarus border, and both countries were horribly afflicted
It is one of the eeriest places on earth. Fighting there is madness
Putin is mad.
Its scary as learning about things like the Cuban Missile Crisis and similar in the past I at least knew (a) it was in the past and (b) Khrushchev and Kennedy were both sane.
Putin seems to have lost his grip on sanity. That is scary.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Indeed. The only difference is that the far right is an irrelevancy in UK politics, whereas the far left's (much diminished from 2019, but still tangible) influence over the Labour party means they very much aren't.
I guess your idea of what "far right" is might be different to some others. I am an ex-Tory activist and I would say that there are plenty of people in the Conservative Party who are as far from the median as Corbyn is in the other direction
Boris is no Trump however and there is no far right party now polling over 10% of the vote as Le Pen's is in France, Lega is in Italy, the Afd are in Germany and Vox are in Spain.
The closest we came was when UKIP got 12% in 2015, though even they are more hard right than far right
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
I was thinking the same thing. My own similarly uninformed theory is that Putin backed Lukashenko with his earlier domestic problems by getting agreement to assistance with an invasion of Ukraine launched from Belarus. Indeed, there are reports that Belarussian soldiers are involved in the invasion. Presumably, Ukraine did not expect this at all.
Of course Ukraine expected this. You’ve got to presume that the Ukrainian armed forces are just a little bit cleverer than random people on a UK politics website. If the media were speculating about something, as they were, of course the Ukrainians were expecting the possibility. That said, they have finite resources and will have been trying to prepare for a range of different possibilities.
"Putin doesn’t use a mobile phone or the internet. His obsession with secrecy means he even limits his use of paper and often gives orders verbally in person."
Mafia boss.
Also suggests he is seriously scared of being whacked. Like any mafioso/dictator
There were reports last week that many in the Russian military are seriously unhappy with this Ukrainian shit, thinking it is far too risky and could easily become another Afghanistan....
Let us hope they do the decent thing
It'll be worse than Afghanistan. Not only will the Ukrainians be fighting for their homeland and independence (like Afghans) but the people shooting them may as well be their cousins. Indeed in many cases will literally be cousins. How long will Russian troop morale keep up in those circumstances?
"Remind me again Vlad why we are in this trench fighting our cousins?"
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Corbyn roundly condemned Putin today. Because he's basically a British pacifist, he's known for being anti-war conducted by Britain, but it misreads him to think he's therefore in favour of a war conducted by somebody else. He's rigidly consistent, to a degree that I suspect disconcerts some of his usual more, um, flexible allies.
He is an apologist for Putin and it does you no credit that you defend him. He is also an apologist for anti-Semites and terrorists, and that fact also does you no credit for defending him either.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Hands up anyone else who thought until 3 minutes ago that Chernobyl was in Russia...
IIRC, it's in Ukraine, but very close to Belorus.
If the wind is blowing the wrong way, it could be pretty awful for Minsk.
I've been there, and you are quite right. The nuclear plant is in Ukraine, just, but the Exclusion Zone straddles the Ukraine-Belarus border, and both countries were horribly afflicted
It is one of the eeriest places on earth. Fighting there is madness
Some friends of mine had part of their honeymoon there (yes, they are a bit nuts).
Remember that there are about 15 other nuclear plants in Ukraine, not just the remants of the one at Chernobyl.
The Russians will be totally paranoid that someone will do something with the waste, justified or not.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
Surely it all depends if he tries to occupy and subjugate the entire country, which - at the moment - looks like his plan. He has now earned the undying hatred of 35 million Ukrainians. He will have to install a brutal puppet regime to keep them from rebelling in their anger. Their economy will likely implode, as well
Syria and Georgia and the rest were all very different. This IS closer to Afghanistan, even if the terrain is better for tanks.
I cannot see a way out of this for Putin which does not end pretty badly, either a long term chronic insurrection in Ukraine, or Putin himself is deposed. Unless, that is, his intention is simply to carry on warring, moving on to Moldova and the Baltics, and he doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine per se.
He might be entirely mad. That speech was not a hopeful indicator. Ranting
Capital - lower general tax rates did not help business capital investment. Future tax policy to be targeted and strategic, cutting taxes on business investment - probably means higher capital allowances following the end of the super deduction?
People - adult skill development is poor, reform complexity and confusing in the current system of adult training (no free market here), is the tax system (apprenticeship levy) doing enough to incentivise business to invest in right kind of training.
Ideas - not enough business research and development, AI important, R&D tax reliefs not doing a good job in incentivising R&D despite high cost. Change visa system to encourage entrepreneurs and highly skilled persons.
The message (apart from tax cuts do not pay for themselves) is that tinkering with the tax system to encourage specific behaviour is back.
Thanks for the summary. Sounds OK. All great to encourage investment, though a bit of discouragement of 'devestment' wouldn't go amiss either.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
It's sad when someone is so clearly bought and sold. When they are arguing responding in any way is as big an issue as naked aggression you have to assume they know its bullshit.
Capital - lower general tax rates did not help business capital investment. Future tax policy to be targeted and strategic, cutting taxes on business investment - probably means higher capital allowances following the end of the super deduction?
People - adult skill development is poor, reform complexity and confusing in the current system of adult training (no free market here), is the tax system (apprenticeship levy) doing enough to incentivise business to invest in right kind of training.
Ideas - not enough business research and development, AI important, R&D tax reliefs not doing a good job in incentivising R&D despite high cost. Change visa system to encourage entrepreneurs and highly skilled persons.
The message (apart from tax cuts do not pay for themselves) is that tinkering with the tax system to encourage specific behaviour is back.
I have some experience with the modern apprenticeship system and it’s a nightmare of bureaucracy and red tape. Another example of a Conservative government not trusting in a free market to work!
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
This isn't 2019. This is 2022. Putin's party "United Russia" is right-wing conservative.
Its extremely statist, that is not right-wing conservative. If anything it is left-wing conservative, but it is more dictatorial than either left or right.
There's a specific type of authoritarian regime that I find very difficult to classify into left and right. China is another - in some ways ultra-conservative economically in that there is little or no regulation of capitalist monopolies, almost non-existent labour rights or social protections, but on the other hand as you say highly statist, with central power conferred through cronyism and favours, and distorted markets.
I think mafia capitalist pretty much sums it up.
Mafia is right, capitalist is not.
Capitalism depends upon law and order. The idea that if you invest your capital, and do well, then your capital can grow. However in those sort of regimes the state is prepared and willing to destroy successful businesses if they don't bend to the mafia in charge of the nation. See Putin's destruction of the Yukos oil and gas company to cease its assets for the state and their friend and to destroy successful rivals - as determined by courts in the Hague.
That sort of thing can't happen in a capitalist society.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Russian Federation has today further violated Ukrainian Sovereignty. Despite the efforts of the international communities, Russia has chosen conflict.
No one has been fooled by the Kremlin’s false flags and fake narratives. 1/2
This is naked aggression against a democratic country which had dared to express a different aspiration than being a supine neighbour to Russia. No one should forget this day. Putin thinks this land grab is about securing his legacy -it will be, but not the one that he wishes.2/2
Baldy Wallace on Twitter
Boris may be secure but not stopping Ben n Liz from positioning
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
We need to face the brutal reality of a new Cold War at the very least. We need to remember quickly how we won the last one, before it is too late. Speak softly, carry a big stick. We need a bigger stick and some serious political leaders.
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
Ukraine should read the Daily Mail, then.
Putin's invasion plans were leaked and all over the Mail a few days ago.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
Surely they would have to deploy substantially more than 100,000 troops to mount an occupation. Does Russia want to tie up its armed forces in such a way?
Yesterday Wallace stated in public, on camera, that essentially we can and should try and beat Russia as in 1853, and today Cleverly thinks he can make a public call for a coup in Russia, which he also presumably thinks is the right way to achieve this goal.
The competence level of this government is absolutely staggering and shocking. There's no joke about that.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
If you look at the map, Chernobyl is in the path from Belarus to Kiev.
This was posted by Zelensky:
@ZelenskyyUa Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the #Chornobyl_NPP. Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated. Reported this to @SwedishPM. This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
"What India was for England, Russia Ukraine will be for us!"
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Hands up anyone else who thought until 3 minutes ago that Chernobyl was in Russia...
IIRC, it's in Ukraine, but very close to Belorus.
If the wind is blowing the wrong way, it could be pretty awful for Minsk.
I've been there, and you are quite right. The nuclear plant is in Ukraine, just, but the Exclusion Zone straddles the Ukraine-Belarus border, and both countries were horribly afflicted
It is one of the eeriest places on earth. Fighting there is madness
Putin is mad.
Its scary as learning about things like the Cuban Missile Crisis and similar in the past I at least knew (a) it was in the past and (b) Khrushchev and Kennedy were both sane.
Putin seems to have lost his grip on sanity. That is scary.
...and just in case Nick should continue to make apologies for Corbyn, this is one of the lines in the statement from SWC that Corbyn and all his left wing nutjob supporters signed:
'in taking this position we do not endorse the nature or conduct of either the Russian or Ukrainian regimes.'
They want to suggest that the Ukrainian "regime" is equivalent to Russia. FFS!
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
I guess in a way it's a coup and the usual rules apply. What do we know about the Ukrainian police?
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
Surely they would have to deploy substantially more than 100,000 troops to mount an occupation. Does Russia want to tie up its armed forces in such a way?
Perhaps Putin is now so deluded that he thinks most Ukrainians will actually be glad to be part of his Russian superstate?
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Hands up anyone else who thought until 3 minutes ago that Chernobyl was in Russia...
I thought it was in Belarus. As a youth I played in a brass band at an event which included Belorussians our age (1986/87) in a choir, from memory they had been part of fundraising.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic band clog the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
Putin mentioned nuclear ambitions by Ukraine in his Count Blowfly speech.
Chernobyl has a number of cooling ponds, full of ancient fuel rods.
The reason that "civilian plutonium" is said to be not usable for bombs is the presence of Pu-240 - one more neutron than the Good Stuff. Pu-239. Often, civilian plutonium is 20%+ Pu-240
Separating plutonium isotopes would be hard and required a big, expensive plant normally used for enriching uranium and would contaminate it with plutonium. Forever.
However, over time, the Pu-240 decays into Uranium 236. Half life is 7 years. So after 7 years, 20% becomes 10%. after 14 years, 20% becomes 5%, 21 years and it 2.5%....
Plutonium with 2490 below 3% is weapons grade. So if you have *old* fuel rods, you have weapons grade plutonium. A lot of it. And because the only plutonium left is 239, all the other materials in the rods can be removed with relatively simple chemistry. Dissolve the rod in nitric acid and precipitate the Pu-239 using oxalic acid, IIRC.
So if Putin thinks that Ukraine wants the bomb (and he will think so - he would want it, in their shoes) Chernobyl would be a prime target....
Putin has the backing of the Russian people... https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496848719345504256 Moscow’s Mayakovsky Theater has forbidden its actors from making “ANY comments AT ALL” about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The city’s Culture Dept. reportedly says any negative comments will be considered “treason.”
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
Surely it all depends if he tries to occupy and subjugate the entire country, which - at the moment - looks like his plan. He has now earned the undying hatred of 35 million Ukrainians. He will have to install a brutal puppet regime to keep them from rebelling in their anger. Their economy will likely implode, as well
Syria and Georgia and the rest were all very different. This IS closer to Afghanistan, even if the terrain is better for tanks.
I cannot see a way out of this for Putin which does not end pretty badly, either a long term chronic insurrection in Ukraine, or Putin himself is deposed. Unless, that is, his intention is simply to carry on warring, moving on to Moldova and the Baltics, and he doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine per se.
He might be entirely mad. That speech was not a hopeful indicator. Ranting
He already as a strip of Moldova: Transnistria, since 1992.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
Not a circus, the Circus. You don't read J Le Carre obv.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
The President of Ukraine says there's fighting in Chornobyl.
Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the #Chornobyl_NPP. Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated. Reported this to @SwedishPM. This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496862540957114370
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
Surely they would have to deploy substantially more than 100,000 troops to mount an occupation. Does Russia want to tie up its armed forces in such a way?
Perhaps Putin is now so deluded that he thinks most Ukrainians will actually be glad to be part of his Russian superstate?
That's definitely one thought. As if Russia were indeed liberating Ukraine.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
Surely they would have to deploy substantially more than 100,000 troops to mount an occupation. Does Russia want to tie up its armed forces in such a way?
Perhaps Putin is now so deluded that he thinks most Ukrainians will actually be glad to be part of his Russian superstate?
Maybe. I suspect more likely he calculates many might hate it but not to the point of dying in a long guerilla war to prevent it.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
IMHO, the modern Russian army is a shadow of what the Red Army was. And, back then, there were enthusiastic communist parties in most of Eastern Europe. The Communists actually believed in what they doing.
What contribution is being made to the economic sanctions against Russia by UK territories?
British Virgin Islands (British Overseas Territory)? Isle of Man (Crown Dependency)? Cayman Islands (British Overseas Territory)? Guernsey (Crown Dependency)? Anguilla (British Overseas Territory)? Jersey (Crown Dependency)? Gibraltar (British Overseas Territory)?
Surely these bastions of Britishness can do something to help in the specialist financial services field? Or are BOTs and CDs unable to assist much in this hour of peril for the principle of national self-determination - to which they are all deeply wedded?
The CDs are doing the same as Scotland - waiting until the UK govt announces any sanctions and applying them as, like Scotland, international affairs are left to Westminster.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
There's another national shock which might hit in the next two years but I find it distasteful to discuss. Johnson though has a habit of lurching from one shitstorm to another, all of which may keep him in office.
None of this will help him (yet) at the General Election.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
Russia is conducting proactive defense on all sides, comrade. Its necessary to defend the independent republics by attacking locations hundreds of miles away.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
I guess in a way it's a coup and the usual rules apply. What do we know about the Ukrainian police?
As per Luttwark, a properly executed coup d'etat is almost bloodless, because the pieces have already been played.
The classic example is the overthrow of Lavrentiy Beria. At some point, it must have become blindlingly clear that Kruschev's denunciation could only mean one thing - he and his supporters were liiving dead men.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
IMHO, the modern Russian army is a shadow of what the Red Army was. And, back then, there were enthusiastic communist parties in most of Eastern Europe. The Communists actually believed in what they doing.
And enthusiastic traitors in the West sank many of the resistance movements to the USSR.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
IMHO, the modern Russian army is a shadow of what the Red Army was. And, back then, there were enthusiastic communist parties in most of Eastern Europe. The Communists actually believed in what they doing.
The Red Army was prepared to lose hundreds of thousands to cross the Dnepr back in late 1943. Don't see that happening now.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
This isn't 2019. This is 2022. Putin's party "United Russia" is right-wing conservative.
Its extremely statist, that is not right-wing conservative. If anything it is left-wing conservative, but it is more dictatorial than either left or right.
There's a specific type of authoritarian regime that I find very difficult to classify into left and right. China is another - in some ways ultra-conservative economically in that there is little or no regulation of capitalist monopolies, almost non-existent labour rights or social protections, but on the other hand as you say highly statist, with central power conferred through cronyism and favours, and distorted markets.
I think mafia capitalist pretty much sums it up.
Mafia is right, capitalist is not.
Capitalism depends upon law and order. The idea that if you invest your capital, and do well, then your capital can grow. However in those sort of regimes the state is prepared and willing to destroy successful businesses if they don't bend to the mafia in charge of the nation. See Putin's destruction of the Yukos oil and gas company to cease its assets for the state and their friend and to destroy successful rivals - as determined by courts in the Hague.
That sort of thing can't happen in a capitalist society.
I regard China as authoritarian nationalists rather than marxist now. If it has changed, and leaders use China nationalism rather than red book to galvanise everyone now, so many minds on right and left around the world will remain woefully out of step on how it’s changed. If China is all about the little red book, how does that square with surge of billion and millionaires?
Same with all the Labour thicko’s who equate right wing Russian nationalist Putin as KGB Putin heir to Stalin - their minds seemingly incapable of getting updated with reality. Same with HYs silly comment. When McDonnell tossed red book across dispatch box it was to emphasise Tories getting UK too much in bed with what China had become today. Hence in 2019 was Labour more pro Putin and China than the Tories? No. On basis as these days we need to wake up and see it as a money thing, in my opinion.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
This is an important point. Hated and nasty regimes can endure a long time. In much of the world that's all you ever get.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
The one thing I have come to learn about Putin is to be very sceptical about the optimists. His regime seems to hang on and prosper, and his actions seem to get worse as time goes on.
The one lesson seems to be that the dictators who escalate up the brutality scale survive in power: Assad, Lukashenko, etc. Those that fool around get whacked: Mubarak, even Gadaffi.
Unfortunately the arrival of the internet, social media, etc. which we all hoped would throw a light on the bad guys, and give them nowhere to hide, has only led to the surveillance state and given dissidents nowhere to hide. If the Soviets had hung on for a few more years and not messed around with Glasnost they would probably still be there, along with Xi.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
Apart from the last bit, I'm not sure about any of that.
Ukraine has not yet given up, and I think it way too early to judge the outcome. We will see. As far as resistance to a successful Russian occupier is concerned, the terrain isn't as important as the determination to fight, which appears to be significant. Again, we will see.
And if it were prepared to roll the dice right now, 'the West' probably could save Ukraine. It's not prepared to do so.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
I genuinely don't agree with that. It is such a superficial and false idea that it should not even be considered. As a military entity the EU has always been, and to date remains, an irrelevance. As a diplomatic entity designed to project soft power it is also an irrelevance since the individual countries have so many diverse views on every single subject. You only have to look at the current situation within the EU to see that in action with countries all wanting their own carve outs from any sanctions. Indeed the only meaningful sanction to date - the suspension of Nordstream - came about because of one EU country (Germany) being pressured into it by a non EU country (The US). The UK being inside or outside makes no difference to any of that. EU countries will do their own thing when it comes to reacting to this and the only multi-national organisation that matters right now is NATO.
Good articulate post Richard, but methinks you are simply trying to justify a foreign policy and security disaster because you were emotionally engaged with it. Brexit has created significant division and has emboldened Putin. It is not the only thing that has, but it is important. To suggest otherwise is putting your head in the sand .
I would suggest you cannot point to a single way in which things would have turned out differently regarding Russia and Ukraine if Brexit had not happened. It is not putting head in the sand, it is simply recognising the irrelevance of Brexit and the impotence of the EU in matters of both high diplomacy and military operations.
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
Surely they would have to deploy substantially more than 100,000 troops to mount an occupation. Does Russia want to tie up its armed forces in such a way?
Perhaps Putin is now so deluded that he thinks most Ukrainians will actually be glad to be part of his Russian superstate?
Maybe. I suspect more likely he calculates many might hate it but not to the point of dying in a long guerilla war to prevent it.
My assumption is that he will replace the current Ukrainian leadership with his puppets, and then withdraw. Fear of another invasion, he'll reckon, will prevent any kind of uprising.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
IMHO, the modern Russian army is a shadow of what the Red Army was. And, back then, there were enthusiastic communist parties in most of Eastern Europe. The Communists actually believed in what they doing.
The Red Army was prepared to lose hundreds of thousands to cross the Dnepr back in late 1943. Don't see that happening now.
1.2 m casualties; 700,000 in Operation Bagration. 200,000 in the Battle for Berlin. You have to have incredible commitment to take those losses and fight on.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
This is an important point. Hated and nasty regimes can endure a long time. In much of the world that's all you ever get.
When was the last successful "occupation" by a large power over a smaller, resistant, unhappy nation?
Afghanistan was a trillion dollar disaster and a defeat (as was the USSR's attempt beforehand)
Iraq was hideously costly (in lives and money, more than Russia can afford)
Israel has occupied Palestine at the cost of decades of terrorism and hatred
Kashmir is a nightmare
Kurdistan ditto
And many more. Occupations generally don't work. The Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe from 1945-89 was one of the last examples of a "successful" subjugation and, as others have noted, it benefited from elites in all the countries genuinely believing in Marxist-Leninism. No one believes in "Putinism"
Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63 Ok, after years of warnings were ignored and hearing "Garry, you were right!" all damn day today, I'll repeat what I said in 2014: Stop telling me I was right and listen to what I'm saying now. My recommendations follow: -Support Ukraine militarily, immediately, everything but boots on the ground. All weapons, intel, cyber. -Bankrupt Putin's war machine. Freeze & seize Russia's finances & those of him and his gang. -Kick Russia out of every intl & financial institution. PACE, Interpol, etc 2/5 -Recall all ambassadors from Russia. There is no point in talking. The new unified message is "stop or be isolated completely". -Ban all elements of Putin's global propaganda machine. Turn them off, shut them down, send them home. Stop helping the dictator spread lies & hate. -Expose and act against Putin's lackeys in the free world. If Schröder and his ilk continue to work for Putin, bring charges. Ask the owners & advertisers of networks platforming Putin propagandists like Carlson why they allow it. 4/5 -Replace Russian oil & gas. Pressure OPEC, increase production, reopen Keystone. You can't save the planet if you don't save the people on it. -Acknowledge there will be costs, sacrifices. We waited to long, the price is high, but it will only get higher. It's time to fight. 5/5 Cannot ignore the political 5th column of Putinists, from the far right & left in EU to the tankies & Trump & his GOP followers in the US. They may have the right to support a brutal dictator's war in order to criticize Biden, but it's disgusting and anti-American. Do not forget. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1496865471995523080
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
This is an important point. Hated and nasty regimes can endure a long time. In much of the world that's all you ever get.
Of course that preceded the age of the mobile phone and the internet -not to mention the interlocked financial systems. I think today it is much more difficult to not 'let freedom ring!' Sadly we may soon be finding out.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
Corbyn roundly condemned Putin today. Because he's basically a British pacifist, he's known for being anti-war conducted by Britain, but it misreads him to think he's therefore in favour of a war conducted by somebody else. He's rigidly consistent, to a degree that I suspect disconcerts some of his usual more, um, flexible allies.
Corbyn called this wrong, he called Salisbury wrong. His motives may be honourable, nonetheless he appeases Putin. A man who detests and punishes weakness.
Corbyn needs to put on the sack cloth shirt and retreat to consider how wrong he has been for his entire life.
He may not be a wicked man, but he is dangerously foolish.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
I genuinely don't agree with that. It is such a superficial and false idea that it should not even be considered. As a military entity the EU has always been, and to date remains, an irrelevance. As a diplomatic entity designed to project soft power it is also an irrelevance since the individual countries have so many diverse views on every single subject. You only have to look at the current situation within the EU to see that in action with countries all wanting their own carve outs from any sanctions. Indeed the only meaningful sanction to date - the suspension of Nordstream - came about because of one EU country (Germany) being pressured into it by a non EU country (The US). The UK being inside or outside makes no difference to any of that. EU countries will do their own thing when it comes to reacting to this and the only multi-national organisation that matters right now is NATO.
Good articulate post Richard, but methinks you are simply trying to justify a foreign policy and security disaster because you were emotionally engaged with it. Brexit has created significant division and has emboldened Putin. It is not the only thing that has, but it is important. To suggest otherwise is putting your head in the sand .
I would suggest you cannot point to a single way in which things would have turned out differently regarding Russia and Ukraine if Brexit had not happened. It is not putting head in the sand, it is simply recognising the irrelevance of Brexit and the impotence of the EU in matters of both high diplomacy and military operations.
NATO matters. The EU does not.
Yes and no.
To the extent of your analysis, yes. But the EU is far more normalizing than NATO - witness Hungary vs Turkey. And that must be what Putin fears more than simple NATO membership - that the countries that aspire to EU membership must first align democratic, legal, economic and military systems with the principles of open, democratic societies, and then, upon membership, lock those systems and values in.
That is far scarier to his vision of a renewed Russian Empire under his personal domination than any defensive military alliance, no matter how much he tries to build that up as a pretext.
But I agree with you. Brexit itself does not move the needle on either issue.
It's not Afghanistan, but it is a country the size of France, filled with tens of millions of people who, if they didn't hate Russia previously, will certainly do so now.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
The Soviet empire in eastern Europe was full of people who hated Russia, but that didn't prevent the Soviet occupation lasting 40-odd years. A puppet regime, some nasty targetting of anyone who resists, a veneer of respectability through 'elections': the playbook is one Putin knows inside-out.
This is an important point. Hated and nasty regimes can endure a long time. In much of the world that's all you ever get.
When was the last successful "occupation" by a large power over a smaller, resistant, unhappy nation?
Afghanistan was a trillion dollar disaster and a defeat (as was the USSR's attempt beforehand)
Iraq was hideously costly (in lives and money, more than Russia can afford)
Israel has occupied Palestine at the cost of decades of terrorism and hatred
Kashmir is a nightmare
Kurdistan ditto
And many more. Occupations generally don't work. The Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe from 1945-89 was one of the last examples of a "successful" subjugation and, as others have noted, it benefited from elites in all the countries genuinely believing in Marxist-Leninism. No one believes in "Putinism"
It's far easier to hold people down if you truly believe you're building a better world, as the Eastern European Communists did in the 1940's. And, of course, many of them could point to their heroic war record, and the fact that some of their enemies were Nazi collaborators, as further justification for their project.
It's far harder to have that will to power, when all that you're doing is maintaining a bunch of kleptocrats in power.
Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba · 1m Я не буду дипломатичним у цій темі. Всі, хто зараз сумнівається, чи треба відключати Росію від SWIFT, мають розуміти, що кров невинних українських чоловіків, жінок і дітей буде і на їхніх руках. Відключіть Росію від SWIFT! https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1496875093712064518
google gives me
"I'm not going to be diplomatic about this. Anyone who now doubts whether Russia should be cut off from SWIFT should understand that the blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children will be on their hands. Disconnect Russia from SWIFT!"
Comments
Key focus on Capital, People & Ideas.
Capital - lower general tax rates did not help business capital investment. Future tax policy to be targeted and strategic, cutting taxes on business investment - probably means higher capital allowances following the end of the super deduction?
People - adult skill development is poor, reform complexity and confusing in the current system of adult training (no free market here), is the tax system (apprenticeship levy) doing enough to incentivise business to invest in right kind of training.
Ideas - not enough business research and development, AI important, R&D tax reliefs not doing a good job in incentivising R&D despite high cost. Change visa system to encourage entrepreneurs and highly skilled persons.
The message (apart from tax cuts do not pay for themselves) is that tinkering with the tax system to encourage specific behaviour is back.
" Look, this whole station is basically a big fusion reactor, right? So you're talkin' about a thermonuclear explosion and adiós, muchachos!"
Has there been no failure at all of western politicians, western intelligence services being able to influence politicians far enough out from this to make a difference, or no failure of Capitalism?
No? Schroeder saying that suggests all three to me.
I have been comparing this to Lady Thatcher and the miners strike she won. Putin is Lady Thatcher in spending years preparing to be insulated when the miners withdrawing labour. Sanctions on Russia this afternoon is the miners withdrawing labour.
Whilst at lunchtime Boris, on behalf of the UK people, declared economic war on Russia, as long as it takes till Putin is gone.
Anyone wish to counter argue there has been no political, intelligence and capitalism failure? 🙄
Today has to be a day to learn lessons, and act upon them.
Tough on Schroeder. Tough on the causes of Schroeder.
The most fun you could have is if all the superconducting magnets quenched. Which would be a bit of a brown trowser monument if you next to it.....
- For all their bravery and resolve, I can't see the Ukrainian army being able to mount an effective defence against such a large attach from three sides. In particular, with Kyiv so close to the northern border, and the Ukrainian army concentrated towards the east, the situation looks pretty hopeless in the short term.
- Putin has understood the messages which the West has been giving him for nearly a decade. His expectation will be that, as with his operations in Syria, Crimea, Georgia, and even Salisbury, we will huff and puff for a while, but soon drift back into buying Russian oil and gas.
- That calculation might, and should, be wrong, but there's nothing we can now do to deter him. A puppet regime will no doubt be installed, and Ukraine declared 'de-nazified'.
- I don't really buy the idea that there will be a prolonged period of effective Ukrainian resistance, sufficient to give Putin nightmares, after the Russian army has taken control. This is not Afghanistan with warlords and private armies hidden in mountain redoubts. It's mostly flat country (other than the Carpathian Mountains in the far south-west), which is not good terrain for an asymmetric war. There will be some pockets of resistance, for sure, but Putin will be calculating, correctly I think, that he will be able to crush them.
- If I'm right, the West cannot save Ukraine in the short term, but it needs to ensure that we don't simply go back into tut-tutting whilst going back to business as usual. There will be a big economic hit from taking robust long-term action, but it has to be done.
- I'm not convinced it will be done, but we shall see.
- As for Trump, Corbyn, Burgon, Abbott, McDonnell, Farage, Banks, and the rest of them: let's hope they are now consigned to the universal opprobrium they deserve.
There were reports last week that many in the Russian military are seriously unhappy with this Ukrainian shit, thinking it is far too risky and could easily become another Afghanistan....
Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the #Chornobyl_NPP. Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated. Reported this to
@SwedishPM
. This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496862540957114370?s=20&t=-eN-FBxzBSy4VJwNhAP9CQ
Sunak is now not much more than an HM Treasury glove puppet. They are keeping that money, all of it, and if Ministers want any back it is going to have to come with spending cuts.
Tax cuts under the tories are quite clearly never coming. Ever.
If the wind is blowing the wrong way, it could be pretty awful for Minsk.
However there is no doubt they and Corbyn have been much weaker on Putin than Johnson and Macron have been
It is one of the eeriest places on earth. Fighting there is madness
I think mafia capitalist pretty much sums it up.
Corbyn needs to put on the sack cloth shirt and retreat to consider how wrong he has been for his entire life.
He may not be a wicked man, but he is dangerously foolish.
Its scary as learning about things like the Cuban Missile Crisis and similar in the past I at least knew (a) it was in the past and (b) Khrushchev and Kennedy were both sane.
Putin seems to have lost his grip on sanity. That is scary.
The closest we came was when UKIP got 12% in 2015, though even they are more hard right than far right
"Remind me again Vlad why we are in this trench fighting our cousins?"
Remember that there are about 15 other nuclear plants in Ukraine, not just the remants of the one at Chernobyl.
The Russians will be totally paranoid that someone will do something with the waste, justified or not.
Syria and Georgia and the rest were all very different. This IS closer to Afghanistan, even if the terrain is better for tanks.
I cannot see a way out of this for Putin which does not end pretty badly, either a long term chronic insurrection in Ukraine, or Putin himself is deposed. Unless, that is, his intention is simply to carry on warring, moving on to Moldova and the Baltics, and he doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine per se.
He might be entirely mad. That speech was not a hopeful indicator. Ranting
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
Capitalism depends upon law and order. The idea that if you invest your capital, and do well, then your capital can grow. However in those sort of regimes the state is prepared and willing to destroy successful businesses if they don't bend to the mafia in charge of the nation. See Putin's destruction of the Yukos oil and gas company to cease its assets for the state and their friend and to destroy successful rivals - as determined by courts in the Hague.
That sort of thing can't happen in a capitalist society.
I'm not sure that Russia has anything like the military resources to conduct an occupation.
No one has been fooled by the Kremlin’s false flags and fake narratives. 1/2
This is naked aggression against a democratic country which had dared to express a different aspiration than being a supine neighbour to Russia. No one should forget this day. Putin thinks this land grab is about securing his legacy -it will be, but not the one that he wishes.2/2
Baldy Wallace on Twitter
Boris may be secure but not stopping Ben n Liz from positioning
FTSE down -3.5%
Putin's invasion plans were leaked and all over the Mail a few days ago.
The competence level of this government is absolutely staggering and shocking. There's no joke about that.
This was posted by Zelensky:
@ZelenskyyUa
Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the #Chornobyl_NPP. Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated. Reported this to @SwedishPM. This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496862540957114370
'in taking this position we do not endorse the nature or conduct of either the Russian or Ukrainian regimes.'
They want to suggest that the Ukrainian "regime" is equivalent to Russia. FFS!
Chernobyl has a number of cooling ponds, full of ancient fuel rods.
The reason that "civilian plutonium" is said to be not usable for bombs is the presence of Pu-240 - one more neutron than the Good Stuff. Pu-239. Often, civilian plutonium is 20%+ Pu-240
Separating plutonium isotopes would be hard and required a big, expensive plant normally used for enriching uranium and would contaminate it with plutonium. Forever.
However, over time, the Pu-240 decays into Uranium 236. Half life is 7 years. So after 7 years, 20% becomes 10%. after 14 years, 20% becomes 5%, 21 years and it 2.5%....
Plutonium with 2490 below 3% is weapons grade. So if you have *old* fuel rods, you have weapons grade plutonium. A lot of it. And because the only plutonium left is 239, all the other materials in the rods can be removed with relatively simple chemistry. Dissolve the rod in nitric acid and precipitate the Pu-239 using oxalic acid, IIRC.
So if Putin thinks that Ukraine wants the bomb (and he will think so - he would want it, in their shoes) Chernobyl would be a prime target....
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496848719345504256
Moscow’s Mayakovsky Theater has forbidden its actors from making “ANY comments AT ALL” about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The city’s Culture Dept. reportedly says any negative comments will be considered “treason.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria
Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa
Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the #Chornobyl_NPP. Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated. Reported this to
@SwedishPM. This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496862540957114370
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
https://liveuamap.com/
Russian hacking?
There's another national shock which might hit in the next two years but I find it distasteful to discuss. Johnson though has a habit of lurching from one shitstorm to another, all of which may keep him in office.
None of this will help him (yet) at the General Election.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496870591483330560?cxt=HHwWgIC-gen3-cUpAAAA
The classic example is the overthrow of Lavrentiy Beria. At some point, it must have become blindlingly clear that Kruschev's denunciation could only mean one thing - he and his supporters were liiving dead men.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Jungle etc
a fun note - the engines on some of the German E-boats used were replaced with Napier Deltics - compact, more powerful and quieter...
Same with all the Labour thicko’s who equate right wing Russian nationalist Putin as KGB Putin heir to Stalin - their minds seemingly incapable of getting updated with reality. Same with HYs silly comment. When McDonnell tossed red book across dispatch box it was to emphasise Tories getting UK too much in bed with what China had become today. Hence in 2019 was Labour more pro Putin and China than the Tories? No. On basis as these days we need to wake up and see it as a money thing, in my opinion.
Perhaps Putin is personally targetting me with misinfo, for calling him a "pussy"
Unfortunately the arrival of the internet, social media, etc. which we all hoped would throw a light on the bad guys, and give them nowhere to hide, has only led to the surveillance state and given dissidents nowhere to hide. If the Soviets had hung on for a few more years and not messed around with Glasnost they would probably still be there, along with Xi.
Ukraine has not yet given up, and I think it way too early to judge the outcome. We will see.
As far as resistance to a successful Russian occupier is concerned, the terrain isn't as important as the determination to fight, which appears to be significant. Again, we will see.
And if it were prepared to roll the dice right now, 'the West' probably could save Ukraine.
It's not prepared to do so.
NATO matters. The EU does not.
Afghanistan was a trillion dollar disaster and a defeat (as was the USSR's attempt beforehand)
Iraq was hideously costly (in lives and money, more than Russia can afford)
Israel has occupied Palestine at the cost of decades of terrorism and hatred
Kashmir is a nightmare
Kurdistan ditto
And many more. Occupations generally don't work. The Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe from 1945-89 was one of the last examples of a "successful" subjugation and, as others have noted, it benefited from elites in all the countries genuinely believing in Marxist-Leninism. No one believes in "Putinism"
Garry Kasparov
@Kasparov63
Ok, after years of warnings were ignored and hearing "Garry, you were right!" all damn day today, I'll repeat what I said in 2014: Stop telling me I was right and listen to what I'm saying now. My recommendations follow:
-Support Ukraine militarily, immediately, everything but boots on the ground. All weapons, intel, cyber.
-Bankrupt Putin's war machine. Freeze & seize Russia's finances & those of him and his gang.
-Kick Russia out of every intl & financial institution. PACE, Interpol, etc 2/5
-Recall all ambassadors from Russia. There is no point in talking. The new unified message is "stop or be isolated completely".
-Ban all elements of Putin's global propaganda machine. Turn them off, shut them down, send them home. Stop helping the dictator spread lies & hate.
-Expose and act against Putin's lackeys in the free world. If Schröder and his ilk continue to work for Putin, bring charges. Ask the owners & advertisers of networks platforming Putin propagandists like Carlson why they allow it. 4/5
-Replace Russian oil & gas. Pressure OPEC, increase production, reopen Keystone. You can't save the planet if you don't save the people on it.
-Acknowledge there will be costs, sacrifices. We waited to long, the price is high, but it will only get higher. It's time to fight. 5/5
Cannot ignore the political 5th column of Putinists, from the far right & left in EU to the tankies & Trump & his GOP followers in the US. They may have the right to support a brutal dictator's war in order to criticize Biden, but it's disgusting and anti-American. Do not forget.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1496865471995523080
Ukraine's president says Russian forces are attempting to seize control of Chernobyl nuclear power plant
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1496872355347550216
He's deranged enough to have done it.
A grim grim day.
In some ways, might the markets not prefer a swift victory?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/24/boris-johnson-russia-ukraine-joe-biden-liz-truss-cobra/
To the extent of your analysis, yes. But the EU is far more normalizing than NATO - witness Hungary vs Turkey. And that must be what Putin fears more than simple NATO membership - that the countries that aspire to EU membership must first align democratic, legal, economic and military systems with the principles of open, democratic societies, and then, upon membership, lock those systems and values in.
That is far scarier to his vision of a renewed Russian Empire under his personal domination than any defensive military alliance, no matter how much he tries to build that up as a pretext.
But I agree with you. Brexit itself does not move the needle on either issue.
It's far harder to have that will to power, when all that you're doing is maintaining a bunch of kleptocrats in power.
Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba
· 1m
Я не буду дипломатичним у цій темі. Всі, хто зараз сумнівається, чи треба відключати Росію від SWIFT, мають розуміти, що кров невинних українських чоловіків, жінок і дітей буде і на їхніх руках. Відключіть Росію від SWIFT!
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1496875093712064518
google gives me
"I'm not going to be diplomatic about this. Anyone who now doubts whether Russia should be cut off from SWIFT should understand that the blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children will be on their hands. Disconnect Russia from SWIFT!"