Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
Also their decision to close their nuclear powers stations, thus making the country reliant on Russian gas.
Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
I'm not sure 'authoritarian v liberal' is quite the full essence of it, although it does explain a lot. The softhead pro-Russia sentiment on the left has 2 main drivers imo - a sentimental attachment to the cradle of communism and a crude anti-Western world view in which enemies of the West (and esp the US) become allies to be rooted for.
On the right it's less to do with Russia and more about Vladimir Putin himself. There is admiration for the man and 'gut and brain' support for what he represents. They like his aggressive white orthodox ethno-nationalism, his robust rejection of what progressives call minority empowerment and they call 'woke', his attachment to what progressives call outmoded bigotry and they call traditional values.
Putin is something of a role model for these types. We see this hinted by Farage and more overtly with Donald Trump and those who follow him. Eg I haven't checked Truth Social lately but if I did I bet I'd see lots of 'Vlad's so tough and clever, shame we're stuck with sloppy senile Joe' postings.
I agree with that.
Farage is a puzzle though. There are two broad strands of anti-federalism - the libertarian strand (too many rules) and the - for want of a better term right now - nationalist (too many foreigners). Farage, from memory, started very much on the first, though he did harness a lot of the second. But then he moved on to a pro-Trump position - which if I were seeking to explain would do so only through him enjoying being a contrarian* - and then he's moved on to a pro-Putin position. Which I'd struggle to explain at all. Certainly it's not consistent with his initial too-many-rules anti-federalism. Perhaps someone's given him a big bag of money. I hear that can sometimes change a mind.
*surely he couldn't be OUR contrarian?
With 'controversialists' in politics and the media it can be hard to disentangle what they truly believe from what they judge to be the best way to generate money and influence and exposure for themselves.
I know Starmer is utterly useless. Nonetheless his speech was head and shoulders more Churchillian than Johnson's. Mrs May too every inch the Statesman.
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
You are a joke.
Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.
When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.
Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"
Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
What I found interesting is that 50 years later there were Russian language schools and Ukrainian language schools which only amalgamated after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Have you been to Northern Ireland? Do you know why the schools there are segregated by religion?
Yes of course. But that was my original point. I've just had a conversation with an Ukrainian builder who gave me the background. As you say what he described was something very similar to Northern Ireland but according to him who was born in 1975 there was no animosity between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians. They happened to have Russian schools and some of the older folk spoke only Russian.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
I'm not sure 'authoritarian v liberal' is quite the full essence of it, although it does explain a lot. The softhead pro-Russia sentiment on the left has 2 main drivers imo - a sentimental attachment to the cradle of communism and a crude anti-Western world view in which enemies of the West (and esp the US) become allies to be rooted for.
On the right it's less to do with Russia and more about Vladimir Putin himself. There is admiration for the man and 'gut and brain' support for what he represents. They like his aggressive white orthodox ethno-nationalism, his robust rejection of what progressives call minority empowerment and they call 'woke', his attachment to what progressives call outmoded bigotry and they call traditional values.
Putin is something of a role model for these types. We see this hinted by Farage and more overtly with Donald Trump and those who follow him. Eg I haven't checked Truth Social lately but if I did I bet I'd see lots of 'Vlad's so tough and clever, shame we're stuck with sloppy senile Joe' postings.
I agree with that.
Farage is a puzzle though. There are two broad strands of anti-federalism - the libertarian strand (too many rules) and the - for want of a better term right now - nationalist (too many foreigners). Farage, from memory, started very much on the first, though he did harness a lot of the second. But then he moved on to a pro-Trump position - which if I were seeking to explain would do so only through him enjoying being a contrarian* - and then he's moved on to a pro-Putin position. Which I'd struggle to explain at all. Certainly it's not consistent with his initial too-many-rules anti-federalism. Perhaps someone's given him a big bag of money. I hear that can sometimes change a mind.
*surely he couldn't be OUR contrarian?
With 'controversialists' in politics and the media it can be hard to disentangle what they truly believe from what they judge to be the best way to generate money and influence and exposure for themselves.
Yea, I reckon a lot of the time they get a thrill out of being out of the mainstream. It makes them think that it makes them look cool or intelligent, when often they are neither. Corbyn and Farage both fit that kind of needy psychology
A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.
I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…
No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.
I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
You are a joke.
Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.
When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.
Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"
Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
What I found interesting is that 50 years later there were Russian language schools and Ukrainian language schools which only amalgamated after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Have you been to Northern Ireland? Do you know why the schools there are segregated by religion?
Yes of course. But that was my original point. I've just had a conversation with an Ukrainian builder who gave me the background. As you say what he described was something very similar to Northern Ireland but according to him who was born in 1975 there was no animosity between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians. They happened to have Russian schools and some of the older folk spoke only Russian.
By the 70s both sides in the Ukraine felt equally oppressed by the Moscow. Mostly.
But there was also an element of "It was equal" for the Russians and "It was especially shit for us" for the Ukrainians.
EDIT: Bit like you get Protestants who say their was never any trouble when they were growing up in the 50s....
- Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1 - In Hospital down - MV beds down. Halved in a month... - Admissions down. R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
Hmmm....
Yes which it is why I find it worrying that "in hospital" has done this
I would have expected "In hospital" to have kept heading downwards.
Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
You are a joke.
Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.
When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.
Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"
Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
What I found interesting is that 50 years later there were Russian language schools and Ukrainian language schools which only amalgamated after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Have you been to Northern Ireland? Do you know why the schools there are segregated by religion?
Yes of course. But that was my original point. I've just had a conversation with an Ukrainian builder who gave me the background. As you say what he described was something very similar to Northern Ireland but according to him who was born in 1975 there was no animosity between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians. They happened to have Russian schools and some of the older folk spoke only Russian.
There's also the point that a lot of Ukrainians speak Russian because it was the language of the Soviet Union. And in Kyiv, for example, there were a lot of people from other Republics (eg Georgia) and Russian is the language they had in common.
A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.
I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…
No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.
I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
it is. How interbank payments are made
If you have modern bank, with a decent phone app, you can look up the SWIFT details for your own bank account.
Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
You start to wonder how deliberate this was given her background.
Paranoid nonsense, perhaps, but the outcome does look rather like the result of a long game, even if it is cockup and not conspiracy.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
It was a deliberate part of East Politics that by binding Germany and Russia together in terms of trade and making Germany utterly dependent on Russia., there could never be a conflict between them......
Could there be an economic realignment in Europe, with Germany’s dominance being reduced?
The Germans are going to be forced to pick a side here. The cancellation of Nord Stream 2 is an encouraging sign but it does nothing with regard to existing trade.
The Poles and especially the Baltic States must be terrified right now. If Germany (and its fellow incrementalists heel draggers) won't back them by taking the pain on ceasing to buy Russian energy, then it'll hole both NATO and the EU below the water line.
Well, it will make no difference at all if Germany were to cease buying Russian oil.
Oil is fungible. If the Germans don't buy Russian oil, the Vietnamese or the Chinese or the Chileans will.
All that happens is that Europe buy from Saudi Arabia instead of Russia. And the Chinese buy from Russia instead of Saudi Arabia.
The only way you could make it work would be if *everybody* stopped buying Russian oil. And as Russia is 10% of world oil production, that would be a massive shock to oil prices - I'd reckon you could see them move to $180-200. (It would also be very bad news for natural gas prices, as US drilling would shift almost entirely over to oil to benefit from the high prices.)
Natural gas is a different story. Western Europe could wean itself off Russian gas on a two or three year view. It would be expensive, but it could be done. It would, however, require a willingness to enter into long term LNG supply contracts, something that the UK in particular has been very unwilling to do.
If Trump wins in 2024 NATO is done for and some kind of European alliance will have to replace it.
The USA is the one country that could dissolve NATO if it wants to. American opponents of NATO don't see the point, as they would describe it, of paying for the defence of Europe, while being lectured on foreign policy by Europeans, who at the same time take Russian gas. It's not as obviously in America's interest as ours.
But I still don't think there's enough consensus within to EU for a lasting, EU-wide military alliance. Maybe for a single war, but not the sort of alliance that would function beyond that for the long term in the way that NATO has.
I could see more alliances btween individual European countries: things like an 'Intermarium' style alliance in the east, which are sort of already happening. But again these wouldn't be linked to the EU, they would be seperate treaties.
Certainly no 'EU Army' as was referred to in the Leave campaign.
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
You are a joke.
Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.
When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.
Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"
Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
What I found interesting is that 50 years later there were Russian language schools and Ukrainian language schools which only amalgamated after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Have you been to Northern Ireland? Do you know why the schools there are segregated by religion?
Yes of course. But that was my original point. I've just had a conversation with an Ukrainian builder who gave me the background. As you say what he described was something very similar to Northern Ireland but according to him who was born in 1975 there was no animosity between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians. They happened to have Russian schools and some of the older folk spoke only Russian.
There's also the point that a lot of Ukrainians speak Russian because it was the language of the Soviet Union. And in Kyiv, for example, there were a lot of people from other Republics (eg Georgia) and Russian is the language they had in common.
I think Russian speaking in the Ukraine long predates the Soviet Union. It was the language of the towns and of administration and of businesses; Ukrainian was the language of the countryside. There is some analogy with English in Wales (only a vague analogy though). In many cases, it doesn't make the speaker any less Ukrainian. Nationality in this case cannot be inferred from language.
- Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1 - In Hospital down - MV beds down. Halved in a month... - Admissions down. R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
Hmmm....
Yes which it is why I find it worrying that "in hospital" has done this
I would have expected "In hospital" to have kept heading downwards.
That would suggest
- Longer term patients? - Our famous "found COVID in hospital" thing?
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
You start to wonder how deliberate this was given her background.
Paranoid nonsense, perhaps, but the outcome does look rather like the result of a long game, even if it is cockup and not conspiracy.
Surely not a conspiracy, but her disastrous policies, combined with Schroeder's contemptible conduct, makes you wonder!
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
I'm not sure 'authoritarian v liberal' is quite the full essence of it, although it does explain a lot. The softhead pro-Russia sentiment on the left has 2 main drivers imo - a sentimental attachment to the cradle of communism and a crude anti-Western world view in which enemies of the West (and esp the US) become allies to be rooted for.
On the right it's less to do with Russia and more about Vladimir Putin himself. There is admiration for the man and 'gut and brain' support for what he represents. They like his aggressive white orthodox ethno-nationalism, his robust rejection of what progressives call minority empowerment and they call 'woke', his attachment to what progressives call outmoded bigotry and they call traditional values.
Putin is something of a role model for these types. We see this hinted by Farage and more overtly with Donald Trump and those who follow him. Eg I haven't checked Truth Social lately but if I did I bet I'd see lots of 'Vlad's so tough and clever, shame we're stuck with sloppy senile Joe' postings.
I agree with that.
Farage is a puzzle though. There are two broad strands of anti-federalism - the libertarian strand (too many rules) and the - for want of a better term right now - nationalist (too many foreigners). Farage, from memory, started very much on the first, though he did harness a lot of the second. But then he moved on to a pro-Trump position - which if I were seeking to explain would do so only through him enjoying being a contrarian* - and then he's moved on to a pro-Putin position. Which I'd struggle to explain at all. Certainly it's not consistent with his initial too-many-rules anti-federalism. Perhaps someone's given him a big bag of money. I hear that can sometimes change a mind.
*surely he couldn't be OUR contrarian?
With 'controversialists' in politics and the media it can be hard to disentangle what they truly believe from what they judge to be the best way to generate money and influence and exposure for themselves.
Very good point.
He's gone from sort-of-leading the most successful campaign of political outsiders in the post-war period to being a Katie Hopkins of the political classes.
Further economic sanctions on Russian interests in the UK: 67% Sending more troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe: 45% (net +15) Sending troops to Ukraine: 22% Air strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine: 18%
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
I suppose the fact that the EU and not Remainers are now getting the blame for Brexit must count for something. Brexit is the fault of the people who advocated for it or voted for it, ultimately.
- Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1 - In Hospital down - MV beds down. Halved in a month... - Admissions down. R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
Hmmm....
Yes which it is why I find it worrying that "in hospital" has done this
I would have expected "In hospital" to have kept heading downwards.
That would suggest
- Longer term patients? - Our famous "found COVID in hospital" thing?
Scotland have been fucking around with their health board level data formats so can't easily check if any particular health board has had a massive surge but my instinct is that it's option 2, somewhere has had an infection control breakdown.
I go with this because mechanical ventilation/ICU figures (where I assume infection control is impeccable) are at the lowest level since June last year.
A package of additional tough sanctions against Russia from the EU is approaching. Discussed all the details with @EmmanuelMacron. We demand the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective steps to stop the aggressor.
I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he gets more than half of one (sanctions) out of three. We need to work out how we get more arms to the Ukrainians. Bringing down a Russian transport plane or two might concentrate minds…
No fly zone looks tricky. No way to get that without force I'd assume.
I'd never heard of SWIFT until a few weeks ago. Is it that big a deal?
it is. How interbank payments are made
It’s more important than just payments. It’s vital for blocking funds interbank between parties in business transactions, confirming assets, confirming actions such as Bank A guaranteeing to send x asset on x date if Y happens.
So it would stop Russian entities even taking out positions with a promise to pay when it’s all over because the Swift messages will not be allowed to be sent confirming bank to bank.
They won’t be able to issue/send SBLCs or other banking instruments that are vital in trade finance globally so even if they have a “friendly” counterpart willing to do business that counterpart will have to think long and hard about whether they will transact without their bank having the relevant Swift message type lodged with their own bank.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
Juncker rather than Merkel, Max?
No, Dave met Merkel first to get a heads of terms and she said his fairly reasonable shopping list was impossible so told him to water it down. He did so to an agreed level, then in the actual negotiation she essentially did the same again so the final agreement was a pile of nothing that wasn't legally binding in any treaty.
Merkel is the root cause of all this. She's Germany's Boris. A good campaigner and election winner but absolutely terrible at governing and thinking beyond tomorrow's survival/elections.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
I suppose the fact that the EU and not Remainers are now getting the blame for Brexit must count for something. Brexit is the fault of the people who advocated for it or voted for it, ultimately.
Nope ultimately it is the fault of the people who advocated for us joining the stupid bloody thing in the first place and then lied repeatedly about its impact over the decades. Anything else is just victim blaming.
Further economic sanctions on Russian interests in the UK: 67% Sending more troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe: 45% (net +15) Sending troops to Ukraine: 22% Air strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine: 18%
- Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1 - In Hospital down - MV beds down. Halved in a month... - Admissions down. R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
Hmmm....
Yes which it is why I find it worrying that "in hospital" has done this
I would have expected "In hospital" to have kept heading downwards.
That would suggest
- Longer term patients? - Our famous "found COVID in hospital" thing?
Scotland have been fucking around with their health board level data formats so can't easily check if any particular health board has had a massive surge but my instinct is that it's option 2, somewhere has had an infection control breakdown.
I go with this because mechanical ventilation/ICU figures (where I assume infection control is impeccable) are at the lowest level since June last year.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
I suppose the fact that the EU and not Remainers are now getting the blame for Brexit must count for something. Brexit is the fault of the people who advocated for it or voted for it, ultimately.
Nope ultimately it is the fault of the people who advocated for us joining the stupid bloody thing in the first place and then lied repeatedly about its impact over the decades. Anything else is just victim blaming.
Well I suppose you can't leave something you haven't joined. Beyond that tautology, no.
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
This is about so much more than Brexit, what caused it and what has happened subsequently between the UK and the EU. Poland, Hungary and, to a lesser extent, Slovenia are currently moving swiftly towards authoritarianism. Separatism has set the agenda in Spain for the last seven years or so. The Balkans are a tinderbox. The US is on the verge of giving Republicans, who believe the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was fixed, a majority in Congress, quite possibly on a minority of the national vote. And so on.
Further economic sanctions on Russian interests in the UK: 67% Sending more troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe: 45% (net +15) Sending troops to Ukraine: 22% Air strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine: 18%
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
Juncker rather than Merkel, Max?
No, Dave met Merkel first to get a heads of terms and she said his fairly reasonable shopping list was impossible so told him to water it down. He did so to an agreed level, then in the actual negotiation she essentially did the same again so the final agreement was a pile of nothing that wasn't legally binding in any treaty.
Merkel is the root cause of all this. She's Germany's Boris. A good campaigner and election winner but absolutely terrible at governing and thinking beyond tomorrow's survival/elections.
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
You are a joke.
Yes my Ukrainian history C1930 is limited. I was more interested in the cultural side. How a country was able to absorb millions of Russian in a very short space of time and how they coexisted with separate schools for at least the next 40 odd years.
When you see it in the context of the UK experience where 52% f the population couldn't cope with a small influx of Europeans who integrated almost immediately it shows the cultural complexities that the Russian Ukrainians and the Ukrainians had to deal with
Murdering anyone vaguely looking like leading their country always helps with taking it over.
Which is what the Stalin did - following up with importing Russians to make the place "more Russian"
Comparing that with immigration in the UK isn't grotesque. It's just moronic.
What I found interesting is that 50 years later there were Russian language schools and Ukrainian language schools which only amalgamated after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Have you been to Northern Ireland? Do you know why the schools there are segregated by religion?
Yes of course. But that was my original point. I've just had a conversation with an Ukrainian builder who gave me the background. As you say what he described was something very similar to Northern Ireland but according to him who was born in 1975 there was no animosity between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians. They happened to have Russian schools and some of the older folk spoke only Russian.
There's also the point that a lot of Ukrainians speak Russian because it was the language of the Soviet Union. And in Kyiv, for example, there were a lot of people from other Republics (eg Georgia) and Russian is the language they had in common.
I think Russian speaking in the Ukraine long predates the Soviet Union. It was the language of the towns and of administration and of businesses; Ukrainian was the language of the countryside. There is some analogy with English in Wales (only a vague analogy though). In many cases, it doesn't make the speaker any less Ukrainian. Nationality in this case cannot be inferred from language.
Indeed. Left Bank Ukraine was fairly mixed with areas such as the Donbas having Russian miners and industrial workers moved in. The Black Sea coast was settled by the Russian Empire. But much of North West Ukraine has not been ruled by "Russia" since the breakup of Kievan Rus. Lviv was a Polish/Ukrainian-speaking city until WW2
Thread on the challenges facing the EU in agreeing a package:
Senior EU officials keep talking up the prospects of a "massive" package of sanctions against 🇷🇺 for its invasion of 🇺🇦 as EU leaders prepare to gather tonight in Bxl at 8pm CET. But - at least as of now - there's a risk what's agreed will underwhelm 1/
The Russian central bank has purchased millions of roubles to prevent the collapse of the Moscow stock exchange and prop up the currency after it plunged to an all-time low of 89.60 against the dollar.
Cummings wants us to believe that Russia DID try and influence the Indy referendum, but not the Brexit one two years later. Seems pretty implausible that Putin did not attempt to influence the later one if he did the former
Beyond a resounding, humiliating and definitive defeat for Putin with as few casualties as possible, what I hope is that this profoundly bleak moment is an opportunity for all of us in the West to realise who our real friends are and to work to ensure that the crap we have inflicted on each other for the last few years is not repeated. To deter the tyrants Western unity has to be unquestioned. We have sent a lot of mixed messages on that front and it needs to stop.
Sadly, I suspect this is all a bit Imagine. It's clear Putin believes we will continue to not trust each other in Europe, and that in the US Trump or one of his followers will win in 2024 and blow everything out of the water.
I'm sorry SO, this is all a result of German short termism. You would count Germany as one of our real friends and a key ally. I wouldn't. They are nothing more than a mercantilist nation who would sell their nation's grandmothers to continue selling dishwashers to China. The coalition of willing democratic nations to take on authoritarianism globally is very small and it doesn't include Germany.
This is not all the fault of Germany. That lets far too many others - including the UK and the US - off the hook. The whole West has appeased Putin at the diplomatic, military, financial, business, cultural, sporting and whatever other level you want to look at. We thought we could manage him, we thought there was a line. We couldn't and there wasn't. So we are where we are. Even now, we are throwing bricks at each other, while not doing all we could. Again, that applies to all of us in the West. We are doing exactly as Putin wants and expects. Again.
No, it is Germany. Germany decided to allow NS2 to go ahead, Germany pushed the UK out of the EU, Germany shut down its nuclear power completely unnecessarily, Germany allowed itself to rely on piped gas from Russia and allowed for anti-LNG propaganda to deter opening any LNG terminals. German energy policy is an absolute disaster zone, it's worse than ours by some distance which should make you understand just how bad it is.
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
I am not absolving Germany. I am just not blaming Germany entirely. I think the West as a whole has failed. Neither have I said EU = Good, UK = Bad. Clearly, that's what you want me to claim, but I won't because I don't believe it.
So who, in your opinion, is to blame for inter European mistrust? What is the root cause of all the ructions within Europe and even within the EU? In 2015/16 Dave went to the Germans with a pretty small shopping list which if he'd been able to get would have kept the UK in the EU. Merkel told him to get fucked. That disrespect from Merkel to both the UK PM and the UK is the reason we left the EU. Not Boris, not the leave campaign, Merkel. Her inability to see long term consequences of her stupid decisions is the root cause of much ill in Europe.
Juncker rather than Merkel, Max?
No, Dave met Merkel first to get a heads of terms and she said his fairly reasonable shopping list was impossible so told him to water it down. He did so to an agreed level, then in the actual negotiation she essentially did the same again so the final agreement was a pile of nothing that wasn't legally binding in any treaty.
Merkel is the root cause of all this. She's Germany's Boris. A good campaigner and election winner but absolutely terrible at governing and thinking beyond tomorrow's survival/elections.
Bit of Putin in the mix too perhaps?
Not really, Putin is a known factor. Our decision making on security and energy security should have that Putin factor in built at all times. Merkel decided not to and now innocent Ukrainians are paying the price.
Could there be an economic realignment in Europe, with Germany’s dominance being reduced?
The Germans are going to be forced to pick a side here. The cancellation of Nord Stream 2 is an encouraging sign but it does nothing with regard to existing trade.
The Poles and especially the Baltic States must be terrified right now. If Germany (and its fellow incrementalists heel draggers) won't back them by taking the pain on ceasing to buy Russian energy, then it'll hole both NATO and the EU below the water line.
Well, it will make no difference at all if Germany were to cease buying Russian oil.
Oil is fungible. If the Germans don't buy Russian oil, the Vietnamese or the Chinese or the Chileans will.
All that happens is that Europe buy from Saudi Arabia instead of Russia. And the Chinese buy from Russia instead of Saudi Arabia.
The only way you could make it work would be if *everybody* stopped buying Russian oil. And as Russia is 10% of world oil production, that would be a massive shock to oil prices - I'd reckon you could see them move to $180-200. (It would also be very bad news for natural gas prices, as US drilling would shift almost entirely over to oil to benefit from the high prices.)
Natural gas is a different story. Western Europe could wean itself off Russian gas on a two or three year view. It would be expensive, but it could be done. It would, however, require a willingness to enter into long term LNG supply contracts, something that the UK in particular has been very unwilling to do.
Alternatively the Europeans including the British could stop being so bloody self destructive and stop blocking the exploitation of our own gas reserves. There is still very large amounts of gas to be exploited in the UK, Netherlands and Denmark even without going near fracking but successive Governments are putting more and more obstacles in the way of extracting it. This ranges from the UK putting more barriers in the way of exploration and the development of new fields to Denmark and Ireland ending drilling for hydrocarbons completely. It makes bugger all difference to how much gas we ned to burn in Europe, it just means we have to rely more and more on getting it from places that not only use it as a geo-political tool against us but have almost non existent environmental and safety standards.
It is, as I say, one of the most self destructive policies on the 21st century.
This is about so much more than Brexit, what caused it and what has happened subsequently between the UK and the EU. Poland, Hungary and, to a lesser extent, Slovenia are currently moving swiftly towards authoritarianism. Separatism has set the agenda in Spain for the last seven years or so. The Balkans are a tinderbox. The US is on the verge of giving Republicans, who believe the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was fixed, a majority in Congress, quite possibly on a minority of the national vote. And so on.
Not today's most important topic, but let's be accurate. Slovenia is not moving towards authoritarianism. It has a wretched authoritarian and crooked PM, who is hopefully seeing the final weeks of a very long and shitty political career. Even after appealing to the last vestiges of the now-aging religious right he will lose the next election, and Slovenia will remain a very fine, well-educated bastion of liberal democracy (and indeed a lot more democratic than here).
This is about so much more than Brexit, what caused it and what has happened subsequently between the UK and the EU. Poland, Hungary and, to a lesser extent, Slovenia are currently moving swiftly towards authoritarianism. Separatism has set the agenda in Spain for the last seven years or so. The Balkans are a tinderbox. The US is on the verge of giving Republicans, who believe the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was fixed, a majority in Congress, quite possibly on a minority of the national vote. And so on.
Not today's most important topic, but let's be accurate. Slovenia is not moving towards authoritarianism. It has a wretched authoritarian and crooked PM, who is hopefully seeing the final weeks of a very long and shitty political career. Even after appealing to the last vestiges of the now-aging religious right he will lose the next election, and Slovenia will remain a very fine, well-educated bastion of liberal democracy (and indeed a lot more democratic than here).
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
That would be quite a development. Looks like about a third of the socialist campaign group.
This could be the opportunity Starmer is looking for to weed out the far left.
Absolutely. The berks have played right into his hands.
I know from sources that McDonnell had been half-expecting to be expelled for months and has been sounding out the potential for a independent campaign.
A week ago I’d have said Keir needed to be careful to create a set of martyrs. But the Stop the War declaration was so batty, and now looks absolutely indecent in light of current events.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
I don’t wish to be rude like earlier when I doubted tanks already in Kyiv, like I doubt this where are you getting this from.
What is there militarily in Chernobyl for the first wave of targeting and capture? Putting my head in the minds of Russian planners gives me two aims for day one. Certainly airports, airfields, and everything to help with air supremacy in the coming days. In the same thinking other targets for day one, radar, comms, intelligence gathering and holding network. The second aim is it will be much easier for Russia if the civilians bugger off out the way, so sow seeds of terror, fear, panic and fill the roads fleeing West.
PS. Just a word to say Yokes isn’t a poster getting it all from a circus in my opinion, nor a darling John le Carre killed on rewrite like some have posted. Although extremely rude and hastily judgemental about me when I tried to engage conversation, Yokes posts a must read in this crisis.
Does Yokes only come out during UK night? All I am getting from MSM is waffle, not the insights I crave.
This is good
A live interactive map of everything going on. Russia is attacking from all sides
No, just millions of people trying to access it, which come to think of it is what a Russian denial of service attack would look like. Error 520 is almost certainly coming from a CDN which handles most of the load, reporting an upstream glitch. Enough nerdspeak: just count to five and try again.
This is about so much more than Brexit, what caused it and what has happened subsequently between the UK and the EU. Poland, Hungary and, to a lesser extent, Slovenia are currently moving swiftly towards authoritarianism. Separatism has set the agenda in Spain for the last seven years or so. The Balkans are a tinderbox. The US is on the verge of giving Republicans, who believe the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was fixed, a majority in Congress, quite possibly on a minority of the national vote. And so on.
Not today's most important topic, but let's be accurate. Slovenia is not moving towards authoritarianism. It has a wretched authoritarian and crooked PM, who is hopefully seeing the final weeks of a very long and shitty political career. Even after appealing to the last vestiges of the now-aging religious right he will lose the next election, and Slovenia will remain a very fine, well-educated bastion of liberal democracy (and indeed a lot more democratic than here).
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
That would be quite a development. Looks like about a third of the socialist campaign group.
This could be the opportunity Starmer is looking for to weed out the far left.
Absolutely. The berks have played right into his hands.
I know from sources that McDonnell had been half-expecting to be expelled for months and has been sounding out the potential for a independent campaign.
A week ago I’d have said Keir needed to be careful to create a set of martyrs. But the Stop the War declaration was so batty, and now looks absolutely indecent in light of current events.
From linkedin, it was shared by a QC who has family in Ukraine. Contains links to NGOs you can donate money to, if you want to support the Ukranian army.
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Your last sentence shows the inadequacy of your analogy; a tiger could be excused, Putin can not.
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Much as I like an analogy it doesn't really work because the tiger cannot help the way it acts, whereas Putin can, even if the fence should have been kept in good condition.
Could there be an economic realignment in Europe, with Germany’s dominance being reduced?
The Germans are going to be forced to pick a side here. The cancellation of Nord Stream 2 is an encouraging sign but it does nothing with regard to existing trade.
The Poles and especially the Baltic States must be terrified right now. If Germany (and its fellow incrementalists heel draggers) won't back them by taking the pain on ceasing to buy Russian energy, then it'll hole both NATO and the EU below the water line.
Well, it will make no difference at all if Germany were to cease buying Russian oil.
Oil is fungible. If the Germans don't buy Russian oil, the Vietnamese or the Chinese or the Chileans will.
All that happens is that Europe buy from Saudi Arabia instead of Russia. And the Chinese buy from Russia instead of Saudi Arabia.
The only way you could make it work would be if *everybody* stopped buying Russian oil. And as Russia is 10% of world oil production, that would be a massive shock to oil prices - I'd reckon you could see them move to $180-200. (It would also be very bad news for natural gas prices, as US drilling would shift almost entirely over to oil to benefit from the high prices.)
Natural gas is a different story. Western Europe could wean itself off Russian gas on a two or three year view. It would be expensive, but it could be done. It would, however, require a willingness to enter into long term LNG supply contracts, something that the UK in particular has been very unwilling to do.
Alternatively the Europeans including the British could stop being so bloody self destructive and stop blocking the exploitation of our own gas reserves. There is still very large amounts of gas to be exploited in the UK, Netherlands and Denmark even without going near fracking but successive Governments are putting more and more obstacles in the way of extracting it. This ranges from the UK putting more barriers in the way of exploration and the development of new fields to Denmark and Ireland ending drilling for hydrocarbons completely. It makes bugger all difference to how much gas we ned to burn in Europe, it just means we have to rely more and more on getting it from places that not only use it as a geo-political tool against us but have almost non existent environmental and safety standards.
It is, as I say, one of the most self destructive policies on the 21st century.
The UK Government has also made a complete pigs ear of hydrocarbon taxation. Firms hate investing here because they're not just taking engineering, price, and geological risk... but taxation risk too.
Almost every exec I've spoken to prefers the Norwegian model, because even though they take 80% of the profit on every barrel of oil, it's a system that encourages drilling, exploration and remediation of old wells.
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Your last sentence shows the inadequacy of your analogy; a tiger could be excused, Putin can not.
Thread on the challenges facing the EU in agreeing a package:
Senior EU officials keep talking up the prospects of a "massive" package of sanctions against 🇷🇺 for its invasion of 🇺🇦 as EU leaders prepare to gather tonight in Bxl at 8pm CET. But - at least as of now - there's a risk what's agreed will underwhelm 1/
The Russian central bank has purchased millions of roubles to prevent the collapse of the Moscow stock exchange and prop up the currency after it plunged to an all-time low of 89.60 against the dollar.
In a scramble to prevent the invasion of Ukraine pushing Russia’s financial system into meltdown, officials in Moscow closed the stock exchange while the Bank of Russia mounted a rescue operation to put a floor under the skidding rouble.
Thread on the challenges facing the EU in agreeing a package:
Senior EU officials keep talking up the prospects of a "massive" package of sanctions against 🇷🇺 for its invasion of 🇺🇦 as EU leaders prepare to gather tonight in Bxl at 8pm CET. But - at least as of now - there's a risk what's agreed will underwhelm 1/
Could there be an economic realignment in Europe, with Germany’s dominance being reduced?
The Germans are going to be forced to pick a side here. The cancellation of Nord Stream 2 is an encouraging sign but it does nothing with regard to existing trade.
The Poles and especially the Baltic States must be terrified right now. If Germany (and its fellow incrementalists heel draggers) won't back them by taking the pain on ceasing to buy Russian energy, then it'll hole both NATO and the EU below the water line.
Well, it will make no difference at all if Germany were to cease buying Russian oil.
Oil is fungible. If the Germans don't buy Russian oil, the Vietnamese or the Chinese or the Chileans will.
All that happens is that Europe buy from Saudi Arabia instead of Russia. And the Chinese buy from Russia instead of Saudi Arabia.
The only way you could make it work would be if *everybody* stopped buying Russian oil. And as Russia is 10% of world oil production, that would be a massive shock to oil prices - I'd reckon you could see them move to $180-200. (It would also be very bad news for natural gas prices, as US drilling would shift almost entirely over to oil to benefit from the high prices.)
Natural gas is a different story. Western Europe could wean itself off Russian gas on a two or three year view. It would be expensive, but it could be done. It would, however, require a willingness to enter into long term LNG supply contracts, something that the UK in particular has been very unwilling to do.
Alternatively the Europeans including the British could stop being so bloody self destructive and stop blocking the exploitation of our own gas reserves. There is still very large amounts of gas to be exploited in the UK, Netherlands and Denmark even without going near fracking but successive Governments are putting more and more obstacles in the way of extracting it. This ranges from the UK putting more barriers in the way of exploration and the development of new fields to Denmark and Ireland ending drilling for hydrocarbons completely. It makes bugger all difference to how much gas we ned to burn in Europe, it just means we have to rely more and more on getting it from places that not only use it as a geo-political tool against us but have almost non existent environmental and safety standards.
It is, as I say, one of the most self destructive policies on the 21st century.
The UK Government has also made a complete pigs ear of hydrocarbon taxation. Firms hate investing here because they're not just taking engineering, price, and geological risk... but taxation risk too.
Almost every exec I've spoken to prefers the Norwegian model, because even though they take 80% of the profit on every barrel of oil, it's a system that encourages drilling, exploration and remediation of old wells.
Yep this has been one of my bug bears for many years. The joy of the Norwegian system is that although the tax take is high it is remarkably consistent over the years. Basically in Norway when you are about to invest a couple of billion pounds in a field development you know that when it comes on stream in 8 or 10 years time the tax and legislation regime has a good chance of being the same as it is now. It allows for long term planning and investment. Unlike the UK which changes the rules far more often than it changes Governments.
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
You forgot, in your litany, the fiscal austerity that Germany effectively imposes on the European south so that German businesses can enjoy lower interest rates.
At present, though, said austerity still retains the democratic consent of those countries (chiefly Italy and Greece).
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Much as I like an analogy it doesn't really work because the tiger cannot help the way it acts, whereas Putin can, even if the fence should have been kept in good condition.
Maybe Putin also cannot help the way he acts. He is who he is.
Your last sentence shows the inadequacy of your analogy; a tiger could be excused, Putin can not.
Which is a fair point, I'm talking about it from our perspective as the people on the other side of the fence from the tiger. The actions of Putin are not under our control, the actions of our defence against him are absolutely under our control. We've unilaterally disarmed ourselves and taken down defensive barriers like energy security. Knowing that Putin was likely to "go tiger" and that we'd have no real way of preventing him from doing so.
That would be quite a development. Looks like about a third of the socialist campaign group.
This could be the opportunity Starmer is looking for to weed out the far left.
Absolutely. The berks have played right into his hands.
I know from sources that McDonnell had been half-expecting to be expelled for months and has been sounding out the potential for a independent campaign.
A week ago I’d have said Keir needed to be careful to create a set of martyrs. But the Stop the War declaration was so batty, and now looks absolutely indecent in light of current events.
Made it nice and easy for the whips, I agree.
Latest from Patrick Maguire:
All but one of the Labour MPs who signed the Stop the War letter have now told the chief whip they have withdrawn their signatures
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
Comments
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/former-french-pm-fillon-joins-board-russias-sibur-2021-12-24/
Your automatic assumption that EU = good and UK = bad is the root cause of why you want to absolve Germany of this. They are the primary reason Putin is able to make this wild moves to annex another country. He knows the west is powerless to stop him because Germany controls the EU and he has got the sword of Damocles hanging over the German economy.
Merkel was the worst peacetime leader in our living history. Everything she did is unravelling right now.
But there was also an element of "It was equal" for the Russians and "It was especially shit for us" for the Ukrainians.
EDIT: Bit like you get Protestants who say their was never any trouble when they were growing up in the 50s....
I would have expected "In hospital" to have kept heading downwards.
Paranoid nonsense, perhaps, but the outcome does look rather like the result of a long game, even if it is cockup and not conspiracy.
"What a time I have come here. So much excitement."
Perhaps he should have stuck to cricket?
Oil is fungible. If the Germans don't buy Russian oil, the Vietnamese or the Chinese or the Chileans will.
All that happens is that Europe buy from Saudi Arabia instead of Russia. And the Chinese buy from Russia instead of Saudi Arabia.
The only way you could make it work would be if *everybody* stopped buying Russian oil. And as Russia is 10% of world oil production, that would be a massive shock to oil prices - I'd reckon you could see them move to $180-200. (It would also be very bad news for natural gas prices, as US drilling would shift almost entirely over to oil to benefit from the high prices.)
Natural gas is a different story. Western Europe could wean itself off Russian gas on a two or three year view. It would be expensive, but it could be done. It would, however, require a willingness to enter into long term LNG supply contracts, something that the UK in particular has been very unwilling to do.
He was (maybe still is) Chairman of Nord Stream.
American opponents of NATO don't see the point, as they would describe it, of paying for the defence of Europe, while being lectured on foreign policy by Europeans, who at the same time take Russian gas. It's not as obviously in America's interest as ours.
But I still don't think there's enough consensus within to EU for a lasting, EU-wide military alliance. Maybe for a single war, but not the sort of alliance that would function beyond that for the long term in the way that NATO has.
I could see more alliances btween individual European countries: things like an 'Intermarium' style alliance in the east, which are sort of already happening. But again these wouldn't be linked to the EU, they would be seperate treaties.
Certainly no 'EU Army' as was referred to in the Leave campaign.
- Longer term patients?
- Our famous "found COVID in hospital" thing?
Something that should be banned.
Sounds like if they refuse to do so, they will all lose the whip.'
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1496898836522053634?s=20&t=TgIH0rTjBCX2y6R_A-15tQ
He's gone from sort-of-leading the most successful campaign of political outsiders in the post-war period to being a Katie Hopkins of the political classes.
Further economic sanctions on Russian interests in the UK: 67%
Sending more troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe: 45% (net +15)
Sending troops to Ukraine: 22%
Air strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine: 18%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1496840885023035392?s=20&t=TgIH0rTjBCX2y6R_A-15tQ
BUT, Britons don't support sanctions on Russia if it hits their own finances
% who support increased sanctions if it meant…
Oil & gas shortages: 36%
Cost of living increase: 35%
Higher taxes to cover defence costs: 32%
Significant energy price rise: 31%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1496840890438062086?s=20&t=TgIH0rTjBCX2y6R_A-15tQ
What should be banned is any access to their former Government offices, so that they are not able to leverage privileged contacts.
I go with this because mechanical ventilation/ICU figures (where I assume infection control is impeccable) are at the lowest level since June last year.
So it would stop Russian entities even taking out positions with a promise to pay when it’s all over because the Swift messages will not be allowed to be sent confirming bank to bank.
They won’t be able to issue/send SBLCs or other banking instruments that are vital in trade finance globally so even if they have a “friendly” counterpart willing to do business that counterpart will have to think long and hard about whether they will transact without their bank having the relevant Swift message type lodged with their own bank.
Merkel is the root cause of all this. She's Germany's Boris. A good campaigner and election winner but absolutely terrible at governing and thinking beyond tomorrow's survival/elections.
Beyond that tautology, no.
https://twitter.com/mil_in_ua/status/1496875679606005763
⚡ A whole reconnaissance platoon of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade surrendered near Chernihiv.
Senior EU officials keep talking up the prospects of a "massive" package of sanctions against 🇷🇺 for its invasion of 🇺🇦 as EU leaders prepare to gather tonight in Bxl at 8pm CET. But - at least as of now - there's a risk what's agreed will underwhelm 1/
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1496892887732297730
The Russian central bank has purchased millions of roubles to prevent the collapse of the Moscow stock exchange and prop up the currency after it plunged to an all-time low of 89.60 against the dollar.
Did they consult Major and Lamont?
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/11/14/the-extent-of-russian-backed-fraud-means-the-referendum-is-invalid/
https://www.csis.org/blogs/brexit-bits-bobs-and-blogs/did-russia-influence-brexit
It is, as I say, one of the most self destructive policies on the 21st century.
Geopolitical importance: virtually zero. ;-)
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1496904283190661126?s=20&t=gHpSUJREi_yTKO50M-LY4g
I know from sources that McDonnell had been half-expecting to be expelled for months and has been sounding out the potential for a independent campaign.
A week ago I’d have said Keir needed to be careful to create a set of martyrs. But the Stop the War declaration was so batty, and now looks absolutely indecent in light of current events.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ukrainian-arbitration-association_supportukraine-stoprussianaggression-unitedforukraine-activity-6902494451177263104-ehUr
One hopes that the next government cracks down on party funding and reversed the various illiberal measures put in place during Boris’s crooked reign.
Almost every exec I've spoken to prefers the Norwegian model, because even though they take 80% of the profit on every barrel of oil, it's a system that encourages drilling, exploration and remediation of old wells.
Who enjoys posturing like a Churchillian while acting in power like a Chamberlainite.
In the finest true Tory tradition?
In a scramble to prevent the invasion of Ukraine pushing Russia’s financial system into meltdown, officials in Moscow closed the stock exchange while the Bank of Russia mounted a rescue operation to put a floor under the skidding rouble.
At present, though, said austerity still retains the democratic consent of those countries (chiefly Italy and Greece).
What is needed is for someone else to stop him.
All but one of the Labour MPs who signed the Stop the War letter have now told the chief whip they have withdrawn their signatures
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1496907720909275140?t=3O4Xe3aNzgIMKoJsxdyzKA&s=19
FFS is there a "Select All" option?