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Punters think the Ukraine invasion will help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited March 2022 in General
imagePunters think the Ukraine invasion will help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com

The one betting market that has moved following the overnight news about the invasion of Ukraine has been the above one on when Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    First like Putin
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,985
    The war in Ukraine could have some interesting consequences for the US midterms.

    On the one hand, Biden's rush out of Afghanistan probably emboldened Putin, and that's on him and the Democrats.

    On the other, the Republican party seems completely split on Ukraine and Russia. And voters - historically - haven't been that keen on parties that are squabbling.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,468
    edited February 2022
    Nigelb said:

    With respect, the header discussion is pretty well irrelevant today.

    This is the moment Johnson has waited his entire life for. At six PM today he will declare, "tonight Matthew, I am Winston Churchill".
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    this crisis will be a real test for Liz Truss and Ben Wallace - I suspect they will either come out of it serious contendors (or not) to replace BJ... Wallace's comments about the Crimean War yesterday were a bit clumsy but I think he could be a fair compromise candidate (a bit like John Major, who incidenally replaced Thatcher during the Kuwait crisis
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    I wonder whether dom will have anything interesting to say about Russian donors
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,767
    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,500
    edited February 2022
    Boris came across well today and promised heavy economic sanctions against Putin.

    Thank goodness too Starmer is now Labour leader rather than Corbyn, even now Corbyn blaming the UK for stirring up the situation with Russia over the Ukraine.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/22/jeremy-corbyn-backs-criticism-britain-playing-provocative-role/

    Many of the GOP establishment back Biden's pushing for sanctions v Putin and Romney and McConnell want a tough stance, they would be glad to be rid of Trump but it is the remaining GOP voters who back him who are the problem.
    https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1496683277385617412?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
    https://twitter.com/LeaderMcConnell/status/1496163710452252672?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw

    May also hit Le Pen and Zemmour's chances in France as both are more sympathetic to Putin than Macron and Pecresse, though Le Pen has said there is no justification for the invasion as has Zemmour

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1496772837297868801?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
    https://twitter.com/ZemmourEnglish/status/1496787116898070528?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    The war in Ukraine could have some interesting consequences for the US midterms.

    On the one hand, Biden's rush out of Afghanistan probably emboldened Putin, and that's on him and the Democrats.

    On the other, the Republican party seems completely split on Ukraine and Russia. And voters - historically - haven't been that keen on parties that are squabbling.

    A couple more nights of Tucker Carlson welcoming the Russian liberators and i think we'll see the GOP in alignment.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Russian tanks have entered Kiev.

    Bloomberg
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,224
    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Yes, this.

    War in Ukraine hasn't suddenly transitioned the incompetent buffoon that is the PM from an incompetent buffoon to a great leader of men.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Five Russian combat planes and a helicopter downed in eastern Ukraine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,368
    StuartDickson said:

    Russian tanks have entered Kiev.

    Bloomberg

    Terrible news
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,468
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Boris came across well today and promised heavy economic sanctions against Putin.

    Thank goodness too Starmer is now Labour leader rather than Corbyn, even now Corbyn blaming the UK for stirring up the situation with Russia over the Ukraine.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/22/jeremy-corbyn-backs-criticism-britain-playing-provocative-role/

    Many of the GOP establishment back Biden's pushing for sanctions v Putin and Romney and McConnell want a tough stance, they would be glad to be rid of Trump but it is the remaining GOP voters who back him who are the problem.
    https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1496683277385617412?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
    https://twitter.com/LeaderMcConnell/status/1496163710452252672?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw

    May also hit Le Pen and Zemmour's chances in France as both are sympathetic to Putin unlike Macron and Pecresse

    Firstly Boris (Johnson) came across well today (but he only had to read a speech written by Guto. Secondly, let us see if the sanctions amount to anything. Thirdly, yes thank God Corbyn is nowhere to be seen.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Finally, some good news.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Russian tanks have entered Kiev.

    Bloomberg

    Terrible news
    That's not what I saw reported, which was Kyiv region.
    Do you have a link ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,368
    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Russian tanks have entered Kiev.

    Bloomberg

    Terrible news
    That's not what I saw reported, which was Kyiv region.
    Do you have a link ?
    I don't but @StuartDickson should have
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Russian soldiers have raised the Russian flag over the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496803971368947714
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now

    Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Yes, this.

    War in Ukraine hasn't suddenly transitioned the incompetent buffoon that is the PM from an incompetent buffoon to a great leader of men.
    I beginning to think a lot of political bettors are clueless.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Nah, changing leadership in the middle of a crisis can be a sign of the strength of a country - not weakness - the UK does not rely on Johnson to continue functioning. If the grim reaper intervened tonight we’d be the same country in the morning. Russia on the other hand might be a very different country with Putin gone. We can but hope. The comically bad theatricality of the “provocations” “meetings” and “declarations” - with meta data left in place so we can identify the order it was done in suggests some don’t have their heart in it. It’s not just “fake news” it’s incompetent fake news.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,500
    edited February 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    Johnson now rock solid safe until next GE, which is going to be a Con bloodbath. You heard it here first.

    Latest poll today gives Labour a 7 point lead.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1496803910731894786?s=20&t=4XPpvMZyn_t2oD72SeZoQw

    After the boundary changes that only leads to a hung parliament, not a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    The Tories would still win 255 seats to 300 for Labour


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    That is all before any rally behind the PM in a crisis poll bounce for Boris
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,776
    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Yes, even as one of Boris's occasional defenders, I wouldn't say that it's obvious that the current crisis is one he is obviously better suited to than anyone else.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Looks like the NHL is going to just ignore the pro-Putin Russian stars in American and Canadian ice hockey. Money talks. Morality is completely absent.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Russian tanks have entered Kiev.

    Bloomberg

    This is quicker than the fall of Afghanistan if true. I DON’T BELIEVE YOU.
    You mean you don’t believe Bloomberg. Don’t shoot the messenger.

    (Also on Swedish state broadcaster SVT.)
  • eekeek Posts: 30,881
    MoonRabbit said:

    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Yes, this.

    War in Ukraine hasn't suddenly transitioned the incompetent buffoon that is the PM from an incompetent buffoon to a great leader of men.
    I beginning to think a lot of political bettors are clueless.
    Why else would political betting be so profitable - it's the idiots that we are taking the money off.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Why do you think Boris comes out well in this? He’s had an awful Ukraine Crisis so far.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,656
    IshmaelZ said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now

    Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
    *even more
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,761
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nah.

    We changed PMs three times during the the world wars, we changed PM during the Korean war, and Thatcher was ousted a few weeks before the campaign to liberate Kuwait before.

    Johnson was always safe. He clearly still has the support of the vast majority of his MPs.
    This just moves the news cycle on.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,797
    OT

    Very graphic footage said to be from Ukrainian drones.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t0acy4/first_footage_of_ukrainian_bayraktar_strikes_on/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    On an entirely non-Ukraine issue - does anyone have any idea about how much it would cost to commission a poll of 2,000 people from a member of the BPC?
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,224
    Nigelb said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
    At the moment China seems to be onside with him.

    The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    CarlottaVance said:

    Nah, changing leadership in the middle of a crisis can be a sign of the strength of a country - not weakness - the UK does not rely on Johnson to continue functioning. If the grim reaper intervened tonight we’d be the same country in the morning. Russia on the other hand might be a very different country with Putin gone. We can but hope. The comically bad theatricality of the “provocations” “meetings” and “declarations” - with meta data left in place so we can identify the order it was done in suggests some don’t have their heart in it. It’s not just “fake news” it’s incompetent fake news.

    We don't matter enough for it to matter whether we look strong weak or middling, the only thing which would have any effect on the outside world would be replacing Johnson with truss in the hope Putin would die laughing

    But it strengthens him vis a vis his mpsc which is what counts
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MoonRabbit said:

    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Yes, this.

    War in Ukraine hasn't suddenly transitioned the incompetent buffoon that is the PM from an incompetent buffoon to a great leader of men.
    I beginning to think a lot of political bettors are clueless.
    The bookies love political punters. Generally clueless folk betting with their hearts not their heads. (Small markets mind.)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,767
    IshmaelZ said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now

    Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
    The danger for the world comes not from the action in Ukraine (as devastating as it is). The key issue is whether Putin then turns his attention to brinkmanship over the Baltic states - I.e, I will help myself to them, thank you very much, and I’m gambling that you’ll do nothing to help them, thereby fatally weakening NATO.

    At that point a fundamental miscalculation could easily lead to an escalation. Is Putin willing to play nuclear brinkmanship? We’ve got to hope he isn’t.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,224
    MoonRabbit said:

    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Why do you think Boris comes out well in this? He’s had an awful Ukraine Crisis so far.
    I didn't see his speech at 12 but from comments on social media he seems to have upped his game a bit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Johnson now rock solid safe until next GE, which is going to be a Con bloodbath. You heard it here first.

    In the interests of pedantic accuracy we actually heard it first on the previous thread - from your self :smile:
    Kudos! 😉

    But you can’t out-pedant me. It was still “here” you first read it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,368
    Sky

    700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nah.

    We changed PMs three times during the the world wars, we changed PM during the Korean war, and Thatcher was ousted a few weeks before the campaign to liberate Kuwait before.

    Johnson was always safe. He clearly still has the support of the vast majority of his MPs.
    This just moves the news cycle on.
    My understanding is that, on the contrary, the majority hate him. This will delay his demise, though in my view, other than Mr Thicky Corbyn, I can think of few worse individuals to have in No10 at a time like this than a clown like Johnson.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    StuartDickson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Russian tanks have entered Kiev.

    Bloomberg

    This is quicker than the fall of Afghanistan if true. I DON’T BELIEVE YOU.
    You mean you don’t believe Bloomberg. Don’t shoot the messenger.

    (Also on Swedish state broadcaster SVT.)
    Okay. Sorry for being rude. But PB led me to believe it would be a meat grinder, not over in 10 hours.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MightyAlex said:

    OT

    Very graphic footage said to be from Ukrainian drones.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t0acy4/first_footage_of_ukrainian_bayraktar_strikes_on/

    Almost 0% chance this is of Ukraine
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,379
    CarlottaVance said:

    Nah, changing leadership in the middle of a crisis can be a sign of the strength of a country - not weakness - the UK does not rely on Johnson to continue functioning. If the grim reaper intervened tonight we’d be the same country in the morning. Russia on the other hand might be a very different country with Putin gone. We can but hope. The comically bad theatricality of the “provocations” “meetings” and “declarations” - with meta data left in place so we can identify the order it was done in suggests some don’t have their heart in it. It’s not just “fake news” it’s incompetent fake news.

    Just imagine how badly Ukraine would have suffered if the PM had faced a VONC.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,224
    numbertwelve said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now

    Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
    The danger for the world comes not from the action in Ukraine (as devastating as it is). The key issue is whether Putin then turns his attention to brinkmanship over the Baltic states - I.e, I will help myself to them, thank you very much, and I’m gambling that you’ll do nothing to help them, thereby fatally weakening NATO.

    At that point a fundamental miscalculation could easily lead to an escalation. Is Putin willing to play nuclear brinkmanship? We’ve got to hope he isn’t.
    If he threatens NATO members then we are duty bound to go to their assistance and we should. Whatever the consequences.

    Whether we should deploy NATO forces there at this moment, which would be sensible but provocative, remains to be seen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,500
    edited February 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now

    Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
    No it doesn't.

    The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Johnson now rock solid safe until next GE, which is going to be a Con bloodbath. You heard it here first.

    Latest poll today gives Labour a 7 point lead.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1496803910731894786?s=20&t=4XPpvMZyn_t2oD72SeZoQw

    After the boundary changes that only leads to a hung parliament, not a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    The Tories would still win 255 seats to 300 for Labour


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    That is all before any rally behind the PM in a crisis poll bounce for Boris
    In the dazed days after the results come in, it’ll all have seemed inevitable.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    StuartDickson said:

    Five Russian combat planes and a helicopter downed in eastern Ukraine.

    Any independent verification?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    edited February 2022
    Taz said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Why do you think Boris comes out well in this? He’s had an awful Ukraine Crisis so far.
    I didn't see his speech at 12 but from comments on social media he seems to have upped his game a bit.
    What game is that? Mad Dog Putin like a Arkan in Ukraine whilst the West squabble wether or not to add SWIFT to beef up the biggest baddest sanctions ever? It looks like failure to match your previous rhetoric and promises, leading to a poll drop doesn’t it?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,985
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
    At the moment China seems to be onside with him.

    The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
    The Chinese foreign minister gave a speech last weekend about the importance of maintaining the territorial integrity of nations. And it is worth noting that China is a massive importer of both oil and natural gas, and pays market rates for them*.

    No matter how much mischief they might make, their economy is weakened by high oil prices.

    * There is a small amount of piped natural gas from Russia to China, which may not be at market rates.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,368
    Sandpit said:

    Not an easy day. Pray for Ukraine and her people. 😢

    You and your family and all the peoples of Ukraine are in out thoughts and prayers
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    FPT:
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    glw said:

    A couple of thoughts.

    1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.

    2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.

    Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.

    Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
    Note to young Misty,

    Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.

    Cheers, Mr Chips.
    Misty's right.

    If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.

    You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.

    PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
    Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.

    Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"

    Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.

    It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm.
    Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.

    No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,379
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
    At the moment China seems to be onside with him.

    The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
    Do they? They were surprisingly equivocal over the past few days. We've yet to hear today. That doesn't suggest they are squarely onside.
    More suggests wait and see. Or possibly splits in the PRC regime
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Bloody hell, the people claiming that the claim that Brexit looks stupid today entails a claim that Putin invading Ukraine has anything to do with Brexit, look stupid today.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The mass evacuations are not only happening in Ukraine. Apparently the whole of South Western Russia is in complete panic: all airports closed, all trains fully-booked and roads clogged with traffic out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,011
    Are they fucking mad?



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA


    It will be boycotted if they do this
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,224
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
    At the moment China seems to be onside with him.

    The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
    The Chinese foreign minister gave a speech last weekend about the importance of maintaining the territorial integrity of nations. And it is worth noting that China is a massive importer of both oil and natural gas, and pays market rates for them*.

    No matter how much mischief they might make, their economy is weakened by high oil prices.

    * There is a small amount of piped natural gas from Russia to China, which may not be at market rates.
    You know far more about this than I do but this has been reported in the UK recently. Does this not change that situation going forward ?

    https://politicstoday.org/how-will-the-new-china-russia-gas-deal-affect-the-ukraine-crisis/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now

    Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
    No it doesn't.

    The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
    Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!

    The extent to which the West is funding Putin's war machine via energy was made a number of year ago to astonished German diplomats by....

    .......US president Donald Trump
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Leon said:

    Are they fucking mad?



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA


    It will be boycotted if they do this

    It has added crimes against humanity to it's list of misdemeanours along with crimes against music
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,797
    Alistair said:

    MightyAlex said:

    OT

    Very graphic footage said to be from Ukrainian drones.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t0acy4/first_footage_of_ukrainian_bayraktar_strikes_on/

    Almost 0% chance this is of Ukraine
    You're right.

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1496832457030594564
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,767
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
    At the moment China seems to be onside with him.

    The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
    Do they? They were surprisingly equivocal over the past few days. We've yet to hear today. That doesn't suggest they are squarely onside.
    More suggests wait and see. Or possibly splits in the PRC regime
    The PRC doesn’t win in a return to East-West tensions, particularly from an economic perspective. There is a significant ambivalence in Russo-Chinese relations which has been the case for decades.

    It has little to gain from turning its back completely to the west. It’s best tactic is to maintain the status quo whilst spreading its own influence around the world.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,368
    edited February 2022
    Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,468
    MISTY said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!

    The extent to which the West is funding Putin's war machine via energy was made a number of year ago to astonished German diplomats by....

    .......US president Donald Trump
    ...who in turn was financed by Putin's war machine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,985
    Andy_Cooke said:

    FPT:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    glw said:

    A couple of thoughts.

    1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.

    2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.

    Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.

    Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
    Note to young Misty,

    Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.

    Cheers, Mr Chips.
    Misty's right.

    If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.

    You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.

    PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
    Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.

    Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"

    Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.

    It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm.
    Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.

    No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
    The best performing economy in Europe through the pandemic was Denmark, which had lots of restrictions. The worst was either the UK or Spain. Both of which had lots of restrictions.

    Sweden - which had few restrictions - performed better than most European countries, but worse than neighours Norway, Denmark or Germany.

    Basically, it's complicated.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,569
    Just noticed an interesting like in Boris's short speech that the UK would with international partners agree "sanctions to hobble the Russian economy".

    I don't have faith in him to follow through, but this is 100% what is required now. We need to bring Russia down to its knees and that means targetting the entirety of Russia, regretfully including its normal people and daily businesses and not any of this BS "targetted sanctions" against "senior people" or "oligarchs".

    Russia must fail and be as ostracised as North Korea.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,829
    Leon said:

    Are they fucking mad?



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA


    It will be boycotted if they do this

    I think Putin would find Russia in Eurovision more of an affront to his ideas about masculinity and hatred of homosexuality - in fact it’s beholden on Eurovision to turn the gayness up to 11 this year and then make Russia win as it will give Putin a heart attack.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    numbertwelve said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
    At the moment China seems to be onside with him.

    The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
    Do they? They were surprisingly equivocal over the past few days. We've yet to hear today. That doesn't suggest they are squarely onside.
    More suggests wait and see. Or possibly splits in the PRC regime
    The PRC doesn’t win in a return to East-West tensions, particularly from an economic perspective. There is a significant ambivalence in Russo-Chinese relations which has been the case for decades.

    It has little to gain from turning its back completely to the west. It’s best tactic is to maintain the status quo whilst spreading its own influence around the world.
    That is my view/hope. The Chinese are an evil regime, but they are at least pragmatic. I suspect Putin will end up disappointed with his new "ally".
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    edited February 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Russian tanks have entered Kiev.

    Bloomberg

    This is quicker than the fall of Afghanistan if true. I DON’T BELIEVE YOU.
    You mean you don’t believe Bloomberg. Don’t shoot the messenger.

    (Also on Swedish state broadcaster SVT.)
    (Don't they say "the kyiv region" - with reports that they are about 35km from the capital; but it can't be long - the Belarus border is so close to the capital anyway.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,334
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Are they fucking mad?



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA


    It will be boycotted if they do this

    I think Putin would find Russia in Eurovision more of an affront to his ideas about masculinity and hatred of homosexuality - in fact it’s beholden on Eurovision to turn the gayness up to 11 this year and then make Russia win as it will give Putin a heart attack.
    Absolutely no gay here

    image
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,011
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear

    UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,379
    numbertwelve said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    The difference is that it's now a multipolar world.

    Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
    At the moment China seems to be onside with him.

    The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
    Do they? They were surprisingly equivocal over the past few days. We've yet to hear today. That doesn't suggest they are squarely onside.
    More suggests wait and see. Or possibly splits in the PRC regime
    The PRC doesn’t win in a return to East-West tensions, particularly from an economic perspective. There is a significant ambivalence in Russo-Chinese relations which has been the case for decades.

    It has little to gain from turning its back completely to the west. It’s best tactic is to maintain the status quo whilst spreading its own influence around the world.
    Equally though. They don't win by jumping on one side or the other. The PRC will do what is best for the PRC. And Ukraine is in no way Taiwan.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Malmesbury said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Are they fucking mad?



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA


    It will be boycotted if they do this

    I think Putin would find Russia in Eurovision more of an affront to his ideas about masculinity and hatred of homosexuality - in fact it’s beholden on Eurovision to turn the gayness up to 11 this year and then make Russia win as it will give Putin a heart attack.
    Absolutely no gay here

    image
    The horse looks a little worried
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,842
    I suppose we'll know things are going badly when the Ukrainian PM turns up in Saudi Arabia
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    FPT:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    glw said:

    A couple of thoughts.

    1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.

    2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.

    Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.

    Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
    Note to young Misty,

    Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.

    Cheers, Mr Chips.
    Misty's right.

    If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.

    You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.

    PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
    Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.

    Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"

    Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.

    It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm.
    Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.

    No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
    The best performing economy in Europe through the pandemic was Denmark, which had lots of restrictions. The worst was either the UK or Spain. Both of which had lots of restrictions.

    Sweden - which had few restrictions - performed better than most European countries, but worse than neighours Norway, Denmark or Germany.

    Basically, it's complicated.
    Compicated further by the various differences in social cultural and personal attidues, responsibilities and behaviours.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,656
    Might be tempted to swallow the wine samples today.


  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,569
    Andy_Cooke said:

    FPT:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    glw said:

    A couple of thoughts.

    1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.

    2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.

    Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.

    Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
    Note to young Misty,

    Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.

    Cheers, Mr Chips.
    Misty's right.

    If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.

    You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.

    PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
    Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.

    Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"

    Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.

    It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm.
    Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.

    No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
    You clearly missed my final paragraph so let me reiterate for you, there would have been economic damage either way, but there is no way that the damage would have been as severe.

    Still we can never fully walk or understand the path not travelled, but as far as I can see no country without mandatory lockdowns had anything like the hit to the economy of their Exchequer as we did.

    Lockdown had a steep price to pay, just because health is important doesn't mean it is cost-free or that the cost paid was unavoidable.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    FPT:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    glw said:

    A couple of thoughts.

    1. We already know Boris is not good in a crisis. I do not understand why Tory MPs are keeping him in place.

    2. I think we are past the point where sanctions are going to resolve the crisis. I'd rather the government was talking about arming Ukraine, rearmament of UK forces, and NATO expansion. The last defence review can now be binned.

    Except taxes are already at the highest in 70 years because of the damage of lockdown. Borrowing skyrocketed and we are soon to be told to give up our boilers and petrol cars and make other privations to achieve net zero.There are already shortages of oil and gas and these are set to get worse because of drilling bans.

    Thanks to our government and opposition, we are in no fit state to fight Putin. He knows this. He may be evil personified, but like Trump says, stupid he is not. Know your enemy.
    Note to young Misty,

    Please replace the word highlighted with the pandemic and resubmit your work.

    Cheers, Mr Chips.
    Misty's right.

    If we'd not had a lockdown, then there'd have been a surge of deaths as the virus ripped through society, but the economic impact would have been vastly reduced. On a cold, unfeeling cash flow analysis it could possibly even perversely the pandemic could have been good for the Treasury had it been left to rip since those it would have killed are a drain on the Exchequer because of pensions and healthcare and the fact they're not working.

    You might think the cost of lockdown was worth paying to save lives, that's fair enough, but the cost is lockdown. It is utterly dishonest to say otherwise.

    PS there would have been some economic damage either way due to the fact people voluntarily shelter in a pandemic even without lockdown being mandatory, but it would have been greatly reduced.
    Nope, absolutely the wrong way around.

    Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"

    Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.

    It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm.
    Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.

    No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
    The best performing economy in Europe through the pandemic was Denmark, which had lots of restrictions. The worst was either the UK or Spain. Both of which had lots of restrictions.

    Sweden - which had few restrictions - performed better than most European countries, but worse than neighours Norway, Denmark or Germany.

    Basically, it's complicated.
    If you're going to need restrictions, get them strong enough and get them going in time.

    If you leave it too late (or too mild) to avoid considerable death and healthcare stresses, you'll incur a big chunk of the economic damage anyway, and need the restrictions longer.

    On the flip side, do not impose restrictions that are unneeded or too strong. Not an easy balance, of course.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Leon said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear

    UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
    Whereas our wonderful government has covered itself in glory. Silly old furriners
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,368
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not an easy day. Pray for Ukraine and her people. 😢

    Does your wife have family in Ukraine ? Do you know if they are safe ? I hope they are.
    Her father is there, lives west of Kiev so out of the major conflict area. Military base nearby was bombed this morning though. She has many friends in Kiev and surrounding areas. God knows what happens next. My wife is thankfully with me in Dubai.

    I’m out of here for a while, will probably lurk but not really in the mood for the usual political debate when there’s a war going on. Can we all please agree that the only agressor is Vladimir Putin.
    Absolutely
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,468
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Johnson now rock solid safe until next GE, which is going to be a Con bloodbath. You heard it here first.

    Latest poll today gives Labour a 7 point lead.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1496803910731894786?s=20&t=4XPpvMZyn_t2oD72SeZoQw

    After the boundary changes that only leads to a hung parliament, not a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    The Tories would still win 255 seats to 300 for Labour


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    That is all before any rally behind the PM in a crisis poll bounce for Boris
    A stupid post (UNS?) and a cynical final statement.

  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,523
    Leon said:

    Are they fucking mad?



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA


    It will be boycotted if they do this

    If they could get Pussy Riot with anti Putin song for the Russian entry they might be absolved.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,334
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Malmesbury said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Are they fucking mad?



    The Independent
    @Independent
    Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say


    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA


    It will be boycotted if they do this

    I think Putin would find Russia in Eurovision more of an affront to his ideas about masculinity and hatred of homosexuality - in fact it’s beholden on Eurovision to turn the gayness up to 11 this year and then make Russia win as it will give Putin a heart attack.
    Absolutely no gay here

    image
    The horse looks a little worried
    "They were hard times. When men were hard.... and sheep were nervous"
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,192
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear

    President of the European Council: former Belgian prime minister Charles Michel the chair-grabber.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,224
    MoonRabbit said:

    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    Hard to disagree with the header, but personally I wouldn't let this stop Boris being thrown out.
    Boris's suitability as PM is entirely orthogonal to what's happening in Ukraine. He needs to be out whether it's war or peace because he's a fat lying sack of jizz.

    Yes, this.

    War in Ukraine hasn't suddenly transitioned the incompetent buffoon that is the PM from an incompetent buffoon to a great leader of men.
    I beginning to think a lot of political bettors are clueless.
    Mug punters. OGH, OTOH, is an incredibly shrewd cookie.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,508
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Cold War II is on.

    This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.

    I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now

    Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
    No it doesn't.

    The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
    Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
    This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.

    The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,985
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky

    700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!

    Back when oil was $70, 60% of Russia's exports are oil and gas. Oil is now $100, so that'll mean that 75% of Russia's exports are oil and gas today.

    Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.

    FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky EU corespondent astonished and highly critical of the President of the European Council when he said we did not know Russia was going to invade Ukraine last night when the US intelligence had made that clear

    UK/UK intel was informing the EU that Russia was 99% going to invade for about ten days before this grisly morning. They chose to disbelieve it, hence Macron's forlorn posturing. Fools
    More anti EU nonsense ! We’ve been hearing they were going to invade for weeks and it didn’t happen . So until it happens you just don’t know .

    As for Macron you’re criticizing politicians for making a diplomatic effort to stop the invasion.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,468
    On R4 WATO, Trump seems impressed...with Putin.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,508
    IshmaelZ said:

    Bloody hell, the people claiming that the claim that Brexit looks stupid today entails a claim that Putin invading Ukraine has anything to do with Brexit, look stupid today.

    Where as you just look stupid every day.
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