Categories
Punters think the Ukraine invasion will help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com
Punters think the Ukraine invasion will help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com
The one betting market that has moved following the overnight news about the invasion of Ukraine has been the above one on when Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
On the one hand, Biden's rush out of Afghanistan probably emboldened Putin, and that's on him and the Democrats.
On the other, the Republican party seems completely split on Ukraine and Russia. And voters - historically - haven't been that keen on parties that are squabbling.
We changed PMs three times during the the world wars, we changed PM during the Korean war, and Thatcher was ousted a few weeks before the campaign to liberate Kuwait before.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
Thank goodness too Starmer is now Labour leader rather than Corbyn, even now Corbyn blaming the UK for stirring up the situation with Russia over the Ukraine.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/22/jeremy-corbyn-backs-criticism-britain-playing-provocative-role/
Many of the GOP establishment back Biden's pushing for sanctions v Putin and Romney and McConnell want a tough stance, they would be glad to be rid of Trump but it is the remaining GOP voters who back him who are the problem.
https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1496683277385617412?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
https://twitter.com/LeaderMcConnell/status/1496163710452252672?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
May also hit Le Pen and Zemmour's chances in France as both are more sympathetic to Putin than Macron and Pecresse, though Le Pen has said there is no justification for the invasion as has Zemmour
https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1496772837297868801?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
https://twitter.com/ZemmourEnglish/status/1496787116898070528?s=20&t=m9vT-D9HRNqPj4vhpuVtbw
Bloomberg
War in Ukraine hasn't suddenly transitioned the incompetent buffoon that is the PM from an incompetent buffoon to a great leader of men.
Containing Putin is much more complicated if (for example) he has China at his back. China under Mao was an economic irrelevance; today it's one of the two most significant economies on the planet.
Do you have a link ?
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496803971368947714
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1496803910731894786?s=20&t=4XPpvMZyn_t2oD72SeZoQw
After the boundary changes that only leads to a hung parliament, not a 1997 style Labour landslide.
The Tories would still win 255 seats to 300 for Labour
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
That is all before any rally behind the PM in a crisis poll bounce for Boris
(Also on Swedish state broadcaster SVT.)
Very graphic footage said to be from Ukrainian drones.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t0acy4/first_footage_of_ukrainian_bayraktar_strikes_on/
This just moves the news cycle on.
The world has been changing, this could rapidly speed up that process.
But it strengthens him vis a vis his mpsc which is what counts
A vote to leave NATO, on the other hand....
At that point a fundamental miscalculation could easily lead to an escalation. Is Putin willing to play nuclear brinkmanship? We’ve got to hope he isn’t.
But you can’t out-pedant me. It was still “here” you first read it.
700 million dollars a day spent by US - UK - EU on Russian energy !!!
Whether we should deploy NATO forces there at this moment, which would be sensible but provocative, remains to be seen.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
No matter how much mischief they might make, their economy is weakened by high oil prices.
* There is a small amount of piped natural gas from Russia to China, which may not be at market rates.
Economic damage is worsened if you don't react. The cheapest amount of restrictions is neither "none" nor "all" but "as much as you need to avoid catastrophe"
Without the NPIs and restrictions, things would have been far worse.
It's like complaining that a plaster cast on a broken arm stops you from doing things. It's not down to the plaster cast but the broken arm.
Had it been allowed to rip through and collapse the healthcare system, not only would the death toll have shot up massively (including amongst considerably younger people - remember that more than half of those who went into ICU were under sixty; without healthcare, they would certainly have died), but businesses would have collapsed without help from the Treasury as (as you allude) people shelter in desperation and without assistance.
No; it's long been known that it wasn't a trade off between health and economy; they were inextricably interlinked.
More suggests wait and see. Or possibly splits in the PRC regime
The Independent
@Independent
Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496816731020537858?s=20&t=nKeTWJTtkaRXk8cUnqwAOA
It will be boycotted if they do this
https://politicstoday.org/how-will-the-new-china-russia-gas-deal-affect-the-ukraine-crisis/
.......US president Donald Trump
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1496832457030594564
It has little to gain from turning its back completely to the west. It’s best tactic is to maintain the status quo whilst spreading its own influence around the world.
Sweden - which had few restrictions - performed better than most European countries, but worse than neighours Norway, Denmark or Germany.
Basically, it's complicated.
I don't have faith in him to follow through, but this is 100% what is required now. We need to bring Russia down to its knees and that means targetting the entirety of Russia, regretfully including its normal people and daily businesses and not any of this BS "targetted sanctions" against "senior people" or "oligarchs".
Russia must fail and be as ostracised as North Korea.
I’m out of here for a while, will probably lurk but not really in the mood for the usual political debate when there’s a war going on. Can we all please agree that the only agressor is Vladimir Putin.
Still we can never fully walk or understand the path not travelled, but as far as I can see no country without mandatory lockdowns had anything like the hit to the economy of their Exchequer as we did.
Lockdown had a steep price to pay, just because health is important doesn't mean it is cost-free or that the cost paid was unavoidable.
If you leave it too late (or too mild) to avoid considerable death and healthcare stresses, you'll incur a big chunk of the economic damage anyway, and need the restrictions longer.
On the flip side, do not impose restrictions that are unneeded or too strong. Not an easy balance, of course.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
Russia produces 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. At $100/barrel, that's $1bn of oil coming out of the ground every day.
FWIW, boycotting Russian oil will have next to no effect. Oil is (largely) fungible. If we don't buy Russian oil, the Chinese or the Argentinians or the Cubans or the Vietnamese will. And we'll buy the oil that was otherwise going to go from Saudi Arabia to Beijing.
As for Macron you’re criticizing politicians for making a diplomatic effort to stop the invasion.
The UK and US governments have been warning for months increasingly loudly that Russia was going to invade.
Charles Michel just said that they had no idea that Russia was going to invade.
This isn't a partisan thing, this isn't a Brexit issue, its seriously WTF that he can stand there and say to the world he had no idea what was coming. Incredible and Sky's correspondent was right to be gobsmacked.
100% not putting a Brexit spin on this either way, today is not the day for those old squabbles.