It's (per google maps) 159km from the closest Russian point to the outskirts of Kyiv.
If they drove at full pelt and encountered no opposition, maybe.... but I don't think they'll be there just yet. It would indicate the Ukrainian military don't exist.
While the government considers what sanctions the UK may adopt today, public opinion in our recent polling was clear - the public will back strong measures on Russian government-linked money
But what other analogy is there. With no reason, in an act of pure madness, an old-fashioned air assault has been inflicted on a neighbouring country.
I said that to my Russian colleague, and tried very hard not to show how my voice was trembling. She asked for forgiveness again.
There is a famous phrase “4am Kyiv is bombed”. Every Ukrainian and Russian kid knows it. That’s how the announcement of the German bombardment of Kyiv in 1941 sounded.
And here we are: 24 February 5am Kyiv is bombed by Russia...
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
Anyway, in a sign of these discombobulating times, took 6 on Wordle today - and even then. a surprisingly un-Wordle word in which I had very little confidence as I punched it in....
Got in 4 today. I cannot imagine that word said in an American accent.
Anyway, in a sign of these discombobulating times, took 6 on Wordle today - and even then. a surprisingly un-Wordle word in which I had very little confidence as I punched it in....
Hey...
Wordle 250 5/6
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟩🟩⬜🟩 ⬜🟩🟩⬜🟩 ⬜🟩🟩🟨🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
I had no confidence in it either. Doesn't sound very New York Times.
The saviour of the PM's career is not the bellicosity of Putin but the cowardice of Conservative MPs.
I'm sure many will claim that they had the foresight of the Russian invasion and it "would not be the right moment to leave the country without such a moral compass...."
Regardless of whatever else is going on it should not be beyond democratic countries to organise cooperation between themselves for their defence against expansionist dictatorships.
Evidently we have failed to do this with respect to Ukraine, so we ought to work out what we need to do now so that we don't fail again.
Spending further years arguing over British membership of the EU is not it.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
Any European nation that is not a member of NATO is now at risk of Russian invasion, especially if they border Russia.
Though the NATO Secretary General affirmed today that an attack on a NATO nation would still be considered an attack on all
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
But has NATO committed itself to the unequivocal defence (attack on one is attack on all) of non NATO friendly states.
No. Several of those are not in Nato but Nato isn't the only game in town.
It's (per google maps) 159km from the closest Russian point to the outskirts of Kyiv.
If they drove at full pelt and encountered no opposition, maybe.... but I don't think they'll be there just yet. It would indicate the Ukrainian military don't exist.
Couldn't they have come from (much nearer) Belarus?
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
There is no chance of invasion while Putin has his armies tied down in Ukraine.
I don't think any democracy on his borders can stay out if it - Finland should apply for membership while it is still free to do so.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Let's ignore WWW3 and concentrate on the important topic of British local by-elections. There are 6 today; Con defences in Castle Point, Lincolnshire, and South Kesteven, Ind defence in Durham, Ind defence elected as Con in South Kesteven, and Non-aligned elected as Con in Malden.
@maxseddon Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on state television just now:
“Firstly, this is not the beginning of a war. This is very important. We are trying to prevent developments that could escalate into a global war. And, secondly, this is the end of the war.”
It is clear, diplomats tell me, this morning's EU ambassadors' meeting on sanctions preparation took place in a new world that forced members into line. The new cleavage, I'm told, is whether to leave Putin out of the sanctions package to be adopted over the next 24 hours. Why?
4 countries led by Germany according to my sources are proposing Putin is left OFF the sanctions package under preparation for now, to be added to a potential 3rd package in order to keep a channel open. Others disagree. DE diplomat, in comment to us, did not confirm or deny.
It is clear, diplomats tell me, this morning's EU ambassadors' meeting on sanctions preparation took place in a new world that forced members into line. The new cleavage, I'm told, is whether to leave Putin out of the sanctions package to be adopted over the next 24 hours. Why?
4 countries led by Germany according to my sources are proposing Putin is left OFF the sanctions package under preparation for now, to be added to a potential 3rd package in order to keep a channel open. Others disagree. DE diplomat, in comment to us, did not confirm or deny.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
Defence generally and NATO in particular is an insurance policy. Neutrals are, at the end of the road, pacifists unless in their neutrality they also carry a large enough fire power to fight with and beat any aggression, including a major power. Finland's insurance policy has to be taken out before the fire consumes the building, not during.
Pacifism is a splendid thing, though I am not a pacifist. For Finland the options are these:
pacifism Micawberism double dealing whereby while not being in NATO a secret deal has been done hope NATO will help anyway winter hope it never happens.
While the government considers what sanctions the UK may adopt today, public opinion in our recent polling was clear - the public will back strong measures on Russian government-linked money
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
One hopes they wont be that obvious. Even Corbyn belated said the right thing in a tweet, can he manage it in a speech?
Let's ignore WWW3 and concentrate on the important topic of British local by-elections. There are 6 today; Con defences in Castle Point, Lincolnshire, and South Kesteven, Ind defence in Durham, Ind defence elected as Con in South Kesteven, and Non-aligned elected as Con in Malden.
You are a comforting anchor amidst a roiling sea.
The Tory defences in Essex and Lincolnshire don't look very interesting and should be holds.
Maybe Lab gain from Ind in Ferryhill but no local knowledge of the other independents standing there.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
There is no chance of invasion while Putin has his armies tied down in Ukraine.
I don't think any democracy on his borders can stay out if it - Finland should apply for membership while it is still free to do so.
The question is for how long will his forces be tied down in Ukraine. If it is over and done with in a few days, puppet regime installed, then they will be free to pursue other objectives. Finland joining NATO would be an obvious provocation.
The likelihood of escalation to other areas depends on what resistance the Ukrainians put up to Russian occupation. If Putin gets bogged down, Iraq style, this might act as a brake on his ambitions. Presumably western governments will be looking at ways of backing the Ukrainian resistance.
It's (per google maps) 159km from the closest Russian point to the outskirts of Kyiv.
If they drove at full pelt and encountered no opposition, maybe.... but I don't think they'll be there just yet. It would indicate the Ukrainian military don't exist.
Couldn't they have come from (much nearer) Belarus?
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
But has NATO committed itself to the unequivocal defence (attack on one is attack on all) of non NATO friendly states.
No. Several of those are not in Nato but Nato isn't the only game in town.
It is in terms of military defence, NATO has given no military response to Russian invasion of non NATO Ukraine. Only reiterated it will defend NATO nations only.
For non NATO Finland and Sweden and Georgia which are close to Russia that is a concern.
It will also be a concern for non NATO Ireland, Austria and Switzerland but to a lesser extent as they are further away
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
To let a bunch of transport helicopters land on one of your major airports seems a bit of an oversight.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
Russia does not have an unlimited number of troops. While they are engaged in Ukraine, I think it would be extremely difficult for them to attack Finland.
Russian ambassador was summoned by foreign secretary this afternoon - meeting was very short. Source says It was “tempestuous” and foreign Secretary ended the meeting early
What contribution is being made to the economic sanctions against Russia by UK territories?
British Virgin Islands (British Overseas Territory)? Isle of Man (Crown Dependency)? Cayman Islands (British Overseas Territory)? Guernsey (Crown Dependency)? Anguilla (British Overseas Territory)? Jersey (Crown Dependency)? Gibraltar (British Overseas Territory)?
Surely these bastions of Britishness can do something to help in the specialist financial services field? Or are BOTs and CDs unable to assist much in this hour of peril for the principle of national self-determination - to which they are all deeply wedded?
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
Yes, in Ukraine. Since it's not a real country what on earth are they doing there at all? As Putin demands they must stand down rather than defend themselves. Nothing more reasonable
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
Ukraine has reported destroying invading tanks on the Belarus border. It's rather that they were insufficiently prepared (or lacked the capacity) to defend against a helicopter bourne assault.
And there has been fierce fighting around Kharkiv, so they're not in the wrong place as much as overmatched.
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
Analysis earlier in the week was that the continued presence of Russian troops in Belarus would prevent the Ukrainian army from fully reinforcing the Donbas region, because of the need to defend Kyiv.
So while much of the army will be in the Donbas, they seem to be spread (thinly) pretty much everywhere. It's only the Russian advance from Crimea that I haven't read anything about Ukrainian army opposition.
(Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
Could the SLDs really be on 15%? That would suggest a massive leak from the SCons.
No, probably not. With over 2,000 respondents, the English results are pretty robust. The Scottish, Welsh and NI ones less so.
But if we are about to witness a SCon retreat, it is the SLDs who are the obvious winners. May will be fascinating.
The Lib Dems should do well in Edinburgh (at least in certain middle class areas of South and West Edinburgh that they are targeting) and even so I only see them gaining a couple of seats. Elsewhere in Scotland outside of NE fife and the Highlands possibly I can't see it. I also expect the Lib Dems to get heavily squeezed between a resilient SNP and advancing Tories in Aberdeenshire.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
There is no chance of invasion while Putin has his armies tied down in Ukraine.
I don't think any democracy on his borders can stay out if it - Finland should apply for membership while it is still free to do so.
The question is for how long will his forces be tied down in Ukraine. If it is over and done with in a few days, puppet regime installed, then they will be free to pursue other objectives. Finland joining NATO would be an obvious provocation.
The likelihood of escalation to other areas depends on what resistance the Ukrainians put up to Russian occupation. If Putin gets bogged down, Iraq style, this might act as a brake on his ambitions. Presumably western governments will be looking at ways of backing the Ukrainian resistance.
On that last sentence, I would not hold your breath.
You could argue the West's reaction to date is not much more than 'be seen to be doing something...'
It is clear, diplomats tell me, this morning's EU ambassadors' meeting on sanctions preparation took place in a new world that forced members into line. The new cleavage, I'm told, is whether to leave Putin out of the sanctions package to be adopted over the next 24 hours. Why?
4 countries led by Germany according to my sources are proposing Putin is left OFF the sanctions package under preparation for now, to be added to a potential 3rd package in order to keep a channel open. Others disagree. DE diplomat, in comment to us, did not confirm or deny.
Let's ignore WWW3 and concentrate on the important topic of British local by-elections. There are 6 today; Con defences in Castle Point, Lincolnshire, and South Kesteven, Ind defence in Durham, Ind defence elected as Con in South Kesteven, and Non-aligned elected as Con in Malden.
You are a comforting anchor amidst a roiling sea.
The Tory defences in Essex and Lincolnshire don't look very interesting and should be holds.
Maybe Lab gain from Ind in Ferryhill but no local knowledge of the other independents standing there.
Essex and Lincolnshire had the highest Tory voteshare of any English county at the last general election so those areas should be safe Tory
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
I was thinking the same thing. My own similarly uninformed theory is that Putin backed Lukashenko with his earlier domestic problems by getting agreement to assistance with an invasion of Ukraine launched from Belarus. Indeed, there are reports that Belarussian soldiers are involved in the invasion. Presumably, Ukraine did not expect this at all.
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine will inevitably lead to more fear, misery and death. It is a frightening escalation of the ongoing crisis.
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
To let a bunch of transport helicopters land on one of your major airports seems a bit of an oversight.
However the land forces now need to get to and relieve those troops. Let's hope they've over-reached.
I wonder if Putin has underestimated the home situation too - apparently warnings against demonstrations, and press restrictions.
I doubt it'll happen but Putin falling flat on his face would be a good outcome.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
I agree with some of that, but not at all on Brexit. The primary usefulness of Brexit for Putin was by far and obviously intra-European strife and reduced co-ordination, not social stresses within Britain. That's why he openly advocated for as hard a Brexit as possible, and even went on camera to tell May "to respect the Will of the People", as I posted the other day.
Yes I think it's true but only if you firmly emphasise that intra-European strife is Putin's aim and that the means don't concern him. It wouldn't have mattered to him if the result had been a surly Britain remaining in the EU stymieing any attempt at European coordination. I'm as commited a supporter of Britain in the EU as you can find but purely in terms of Russian preference I think they'd have been equally disappointed by an emphatic remain vote and a smooth exit and negotiation on the UK's future relationship.
I personally wouldn't agree there, at all, but it makes little difference now. We have to concentrate on a very solid European security alliance and building up the eastern states.
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
To let a bunch of transport helicopters land on one of your major airports seems a bit of an oversight.
Ukraine lacks modern air defence systems - we denied them medium range ground to air missiles, and advanced radars, as that might provoke Putin. How would you have stopped that many low flying assault helicopters (several of which were reported shot down) ?
(Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
Could the SLDs really be on 15%? That would suggest a massive leak from the SCons.
No, probably not. With over 2,000 respondents, the English results are pretty robust. The Scottish, Welsh and NI ones less so.
But if we are about to witness a SCon retreat, it is the SLDs who are the obvious winners. May will be fascinating.
The Lib Dems should do well in Edinburgh (at least in certain middle class areas of South and West Edinburgh that they are targeting) and even so I only see them gaining a couple of seats. Elsewhere in Scotland outside of NE fife and the Highlands possibly I can't see it. I also expect the Lib Dems to get heavily squeezed between a resilient SNP and advancing Tories in Aberdeenshire.
Russian ambassador was summoned by foreign secretary this afternoon - meeting was very short. Source says It was “tempestuous” and foreign Secretary ended the meeting early
(Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
Could the SLDs really be on 15%? That would suggest a massive leak from the SCons.
No, probably not. With over 2,000 respondents, the English results are pretty robust. The Scottish, Welsh and NI ones less so.
But if we are about to witness a SCon retreat, it is the SLDs who are the obvious winners. May will be fascinating.
The Lib Dems should do well in Edinburgh (at least in certain middle class areas of South and West Edinburgh that they are targeting) and even so I only see them gaining a couple of seats. Elsewhere in Scotland outside of NE fife and the Highlands possibly I can't see it. I also expect the Lib Dems to get heavily squeezed between a resilient SNP and advancing Tories in Aberdeenshire.
Are the Tories advancing here? Feels more like the opposite.
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
To let a bunch of transport helicopters land on one of your major airports seems a bit of an oversight.
Ukraine lacks modern air defence systems - we denied them medium range ground to air missiles, and advanced radars, as that might provoke Putin. How would you have stopped that many low flying assault helicopters (several of which were reported shot down) ?
By shooting them when they landed. We are talking about a tiny number of troops comparatively.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
There is no chance of invasion while Putin has his armies tied down in Ukraine.
I don't think any democracy on his borders can stay out if it - Finland should apply for membership while it is still free to do so.
The question is for how long will his forces be tied down in Ukraine. If it is over and done with in a few days, puppet regime installed, then they will be free to pursue other objectives. Finland joining NATO would be an obvious provocation.
The likelihood of escalation to other areas depends on what resistance the Ukrainians put up to Russian occupation. If Putin gets bogged down, Iraq style, this might act as a brake on his ambitions. Presumably western governments will be looking at ways of backing the Ukrainian resistance.
On that last sentence, I would not hold your breath.
You could argue the West's reaction to date is not much more than 'be seen to be doing something...'
I suppose they aren't going to make announcements of this nature, it is something they would just quietly do. It is pathetic though, hearing politicians talk about the 'tough new sanctions' that Putin clearly doesn't give a fuck about - I just end up tuning out.
Who on here is up for joining the Ukrainian resistance, International Brigades style? Would be nice to get some of the statue topplers signing up, they have a once in a lifetime chance to actually fight colonialism.
Russian ambassador was summoned by foreign secretary this afternoon - meeting was very short. Source says It was “tempestuous” and foreign Secretary ended the meeting early
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
I was thinking the same thing. My own similarly uninformed theory is that Putin backed Lukashenko with his earlier domestic problems by getting agreement to assistance with an invasion of Ukraine launched from Belarus. Indeed, there are reports that Belarussian soldiers are involved in the invasion. Presumably, Ukraine did not expect this at all.
Presumably they just ignored western intelligence that told them this is exactly what would unfold
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
"They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'"
The Holodomor; it's been mentioned on here a few times. There's an academic argument about whether it was a genocide or not. Personally, I believe it was. It also feeds into why some Ukrainians really dislike Russia.
Incidentally, in an exchange with my MP, I said on 25th January "I think only Putin invading Ukraine saves Boris..."
It only saves BoZo if he doesn't fuck up the response.
Off to a bad start...
I don't agree with much what you say at times, but this is spot on. I am quite sure Boris' response will be inadequate and be seen to be inadequate. For me, nothing less than Russia as a pariah state will suit me, and yes, I know that will be hard on us but Lenin was right. We'd sell Russia the rope to hang us with if we thought it'd make us a quick buck.
That mindset has to end. All trade, ALL trade with Russia has to stop. It's got to be like the Soviet Union in the early 1920s. Won't deal with them at all.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
I think you missed my point Richard, which may have been deliberate. Brexit has weakened the Western Alliance and emboldened Putin, that is a fact. You may think it is worth that risk, but it doesn't change the reality
What evidence do you have that Putin would not have invaded if we had remained in the EU?
His idiotic belief that Ukraine is a part of Russia isn't affected by our vote to Leave. He started wars in Georgia and the Ukraine while we were a member of the EU. He poisoned people in England while we were a member of the EU, and when we had voted to leave. He has always been a murderously opportunistic tyrant and I don't see any evidence at all that voting to leave affected his behaviour even slightly.
But feel free to produce some. Evidence, not assertions.
This is all true, but it's Putin's stated aim to form a Eurasian "union" (read, empire) with Russia at its heart, and to do away with rival blocs including the EU and NATO. I think it's a much more helpful frame to see Brexit as PART of the evidence for Putin that the conditions were right to take this action now. This is why I'm not keen on a causative explanation (Brexit, therefore Ukraine) but I am keen on an associative one (Brexit tells us that Ukraine might be doable).
It's without any doubt that the breakup of the EU forms part of the same strategic goal as the annexation of Ukraine. Anyone who denies that is really totally ignorant of what Putin's outlook is. But how much you can map from that correct nuance to a starker conclusion on whether this would have happened without Brexit, that's a matter for more careful judgement.
I agree. It's undeniable that Putin wanted (eg) Brexit and Trump - and devoted resource to those (imo tawdry) causes - but it doesn't follow that if Remain and Hilary Clinton had prevailed there'd have been no Russian invasion of Ukraine. That's an absurd take. Indeed as a general point what I notice right now the length & breadth of Punditland is an unseemly rush to ascribe this catastrophe to whatever the particular bugbear of the author happens to be. So if not Brexit/Trump it's Iraq. Or it's Woke and the Culture Wars. It's being too Green - or maybe not Green enough. It's allowing Covid to sap our moral fibre and love of liberty. It's because the West has provoked the Bear. No, it's because we have appeased the Bear. We've been thoughtlessly aggressive OTOH and on the other have turned into complacent pussies who've gone soft, forgotten history and forgotten how to fight. Etc. I suppose it's inevitable you get this but it is pretty striking and I'm not sure of its value atm compared to the hard rolling news reporting.
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
As of 15.00, battles taking place along the contact line in Donbas. The Russians did not break through. Battles taking place in Pishchevyk. Russians tried to breach defense with 16 tanks, Ukrainian Army used NLAW. Three Russian tanks destroyed - Ministry of Defense
My (completely uninformed) analysis is that the Ukrainian military is all in the East to protect against invasion from the Donbas region, while the Russians have come from the North (Belorus), the South (Crimea) and via helicopter.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
To let a bunch of transport helicopters land on one of your major airports seems a bit of an oversight.
Ukraine lacks modern air defence systems - we denied them medium range ground to air missiles, and advanced radars, as that might provoke Putin. How would you have stopped that many low flying assault helicopters (several of which were reported shot down) ?
"as that might provoke Putin" sadly underlies much of the West's approach to Ukraine over the past few years - accepting what had been done by Russia with only token protest and sanctions and hoping there would be no more.
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
I think many of us would gladly take cw2 vs ww3 just now
Bloody hell Brexit looks stupid today
No it doesn't.
The EU nations still need non EU Turkey, the USA and Canada as well as the UK to provide an effective military and economic force that will be clearly enough to contain Putin's Russia. That comes via NATO mainly not the EU
Of course it does. Brexit was endorsed by Putin as he knew it would significantly weaken Europe and the Western Alliance. It is the same reason he supports and tries to encourage Scottish separatism. Wake up people ffs! He has been laughing his man tits off at us, and it has emboldened him considerably.
This is clearly garbage given that the strongest responses in Europe to the threat of invasion of Ukraine including supplying arms and training to them came from the UK (Outside of the EU) and the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain (Inside the EU) whilst the supposed big players in the EU - France and Germany - either dithered or openly criticised that support.
The EU has been an irrelevance in this crisis and that would have been exactly the same were we inside or outside.
The EU has done nothing.
Germany appeased, and that failed.
France flattered and cajoled, and that failed.
The UK threatened and actually offered Ukraine support, but that doesn't seem to have done much good either.
The only good news is that Russian aggression seems to have brought the West back together again.
I've often said that the Russian and Chinese approach to the West are fundamentally different.
China wants a sleepy West which is buying it's products, preoccupying itself with triviality and ignoring China's internal and regional activities. It's not interested in damaging the West to the point where it wakes from it's slumber.
Russia wants a chaotic West that is weak and discredited as an example to other countries. Yes Brexit suited that objective but equally a narrow Remain win coupled with continuing societal fracturing would have done nicely too. It's why I think Putin wasn't too bothered about Trump losing. The whole stolen election narrative was almost as useful as a Trump second term.
Broadly sympathetic to this view. Which means that China could well be the most significant broker in this ghastly situation.
Brexit is a triviality. What Russia will have noticed is that the EU places higher importance on the harmonisation of My Little Pony stickers than it does on all its members belonging to the same defence alliance.
If you were a Finn at this moment would you rather be in NATO or the EU if forced to choose?
If Russia stepped a boot in Finland, Sweden, Austria what exactly would be the EU response? What is their current policy?
BTW while in this mood, Russia's claim on Finland would be, from Putins' view point, completely plausible.
There is a 'UK Joint Expeditionary Force' involving close cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic armed forces, involving: United Kingdom (lead nation), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The question of what should Finland do is a very difficult one. It is an absolutely massive land border which would be easily overrun by Russian troops, just by way of size.
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
There is no chance of invasion while Putin has his armies tied down in Ukraine.
I don't think any democracy on his borders can stay out if it - Finland should apply for membership while it is still free to do so.
The question is for how long will his forces be tied down in Ukraine. If it is over and done with in a few days, puppet regime installed, then they will be free to pursue other objectives. Finland joining NATO would be an obvious provocation.
The likelihood of escalation to other areas depends on what resistance the Ukrainians put up to Russian occupation. If Putin gets bogged down, Iraq style, this might act as a brake on his ambitions. Presumably western governments will be looking at ways of backing the Ukrainian resistance.
On that last sentence, I would not hold your breath.
You could argue the West's reaction to date is not much more than 'be seen to be doing something...'
I suppose they aren't going to make announcements of this nature, it is something they would just quietly do. It is pathetic though, hearing politicians talk about the 'tough new sanctions' that Putin clearly doesn't give a fuck about - I just end up tuning out.
Who on here is up for joining the Ukrainian resistance, International Brigades style? Would be nice to get some of the statue topplers signing up, they have a once in a lifetime chance to actually fight colonialism.
(Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
Could the SLDs really be on 15%? That would suggest a massive leak from the SCons.
No, probably not. With over 2,000 respondents, the English results are pretty robust. The Scottish, Welsh and NI ones less so.
But if we are about to witness a SCon retreat, it is the SLDs who are the obvious winners. May will be fascinating.
The Lib Dems should do well in Edinburgh (at least in certain middle class areas of South and West Edinburgh that they are targeting) and even so I only see them gaining a couple of seats. Elsewhere in Scotland outside of NE fife and the Highlands possibly I can't see it. I also expect the Lib Dems to get heavily squeezed between a resilient SNP and advancing Tories in Aberdeenshire.
Are the Tories advancing here? Feels more like the opposite.
In May, will we be speaking to Councillor Pioneers?
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
You are a joke.
I also did a double take on that bit. Really?!
Still, there are major bits of history that all of us are ignorant of, so I wouldn't judge too harshly. I frequently see references on here to historical events that I know nothing about, Google and educate myself.
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
I actually take issue with the idea things are never as simple as they seem.
I think whilst the world is an immeasurably complex place, sometimes things really are as straightforward and simple as they appear. When they are, much effort is expended trying to make it seem complicated.
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
As luck would have it I've got a Ukrainian builder with me today. These things are never quite as simple as they seem. As you'd expect he thinks Putin is a madman and he's scared for his family in Kiev.
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
Any guesses on how much threat there is to UK financial systems from Russia? Should we be getting up to date hard copies of any investments for online only accounts?
The one thing I have come to learn about Putin is to be very sceptical about the optimists. His regime seems to hang on and prosper, and his actions seem to get worse as time goes on.
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
This is very worrying if true
There are so many many ways this could spiral horribly out of control. Wars in crowded, complex Europe tend to drag in other countries, even if that was never the intention of the aggressor.
@noahbarkin Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
"Putin doesn’t use a mobile phone or the internet. His obsession with secrecy means he even limits his use of paper and often gives orders verbally in person."
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
So you categorise Johnson as Right-wing Conservative? Good point!
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
The far left and the far right love Putin. Corbyn loves Putin as much as Farage does.
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
I hope everyone is ready to attend next week's Stop the War rally against war in Ukraine. I don't think they've updated their statements since it has kicked off, but it would be a welcome opportunity for them to disprove their doubters for once and actually focus ire where it is warranted.
Presumably it is now 'Back the War' as Putin started it and they love him?
Surprised you're not backing Putin (and Trump):
Zelensky = Centrist liberal Putin = Right-wing conservative
In 2019 it was Corbyn Labour that was more pro Putin than the Boris led Tories
This isn't 2019. This is 2022. Putin's party "United Russia" is right-wing conservative.
(Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
Could the SLDs really be on 15%? That would suggest a massive leak from the SCons.
No, probably not. With over 2,000 respondents, the English results are pretty robust. The Scottish, Welsh and NI ones less so.
But if we are about to witness a SCon retreat, it is the SLDs who are the obvious winners. May will be fascinating.
The Lib Dems should do well in Edinburgh (at least in certain middle class areas of South and West Edinburgh that they are targeting) and even so I only see them gaining a couple of seats. Elsewhere in Scotland outside of NE fife and the Highlands possibly I can't see it. I also expect the Lib Dems to get heavily squeezed between a resilient SNP and advancing Tories in Aberdeenshire.
Are the Tories advancing here? Feels more like the opposite.
In May, will we be speaking to Councillor Pioneers?
That would be spectacular! I am not an active candidate so very unlikely. Though I would hope that Aberdeenshire Country Council would be more purposeful and less shitkicker than Thornaby Town Council was when I was an elected member on there.
"Putin doesn’t use a mobile phone or the internet. His obsession with secrecy means he even limits his use of paper and often gives orders verbally in person."
Apparently fighting in Chernobyl. A nuclear waste store has been blown up.
Russia obviously paranoid about ponds full of fuel rods... so makes a really stupid mistake...
I think the report was that fighting was occurring in the region and it 'may cause damage', not that damage has actually occurred. Still, can't be long...
Doesn't sound good
The Independent @Independent · 11m BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
Comments
"Breaking: CNN shows Russian airborne troops controlling Antonov airport outside Kyiv".
https://twitter.com/PMBreakingNews/status/1496850627774799873?s=20&t=HO8Y2R9xAiL7jjNwfVO7pA
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1496851347118993422
For years I have been reluctant to compare any dictator to Hitler, or any war to the second world war. The comparison, to me, seemed exaggerated, even vulgar.
But what other analogy is there. With no reason, in an act of pure madness, an old-fashioned air assault has been inflicted on a neighbouring country.
I said that to my Russian colleague, and tried very hard not to show how my voice was trembling. She asked for forgiveness again.
There is a famous phrase “4am Kyiv is bombed”. Every Ukrainian and Russian kid knows it. That’s how the announcement of the German bombardment of Kyiv in 1941 sounded.
And here we are: 24 February 5am Kyiv is bombed by Russia...
Putin's speech has a profound meaning for Finns, in that it seeks to deny them their right to exist as a nation. It is a provocation to join NATO, but there is a not insignificant possibility that they would be pre emptively invaded before they are able to do so. Also, the effectiveness of NATO itself depends on the will of the Americans, which has come under question recently.
I have spoken to some friends in Finland, who are very worried; the hope is that they will find a way to stay out of it. Until now, I believed that the strategy of remaining neutral was the right one; but you cannot remain neutral in the face of an adversary that does not respect your right to exist.
Regardless of whatever else is going on it should not be beyond democratic countries to organise cooperation between themselves for their defence against expansionist dictatorships.
Evidently we have failed to do this with respect to Ukraine, so we ought to work out what we need to do now so that we don't fail again.
Spending further years arguing over British membership of the EU is not it.
Though the NATO Secretary General affirmed today that an attack on a NATO nation would still be considered an attack on all
But if we are about to witness a SCon retreat, it is the SLDs who are the obvious winners. May will be fascinating.
I don't think any democracy on his borders can stay out if it - Finland should apply for membership while it is still free to do so.
Could have at least talked about it as preventing an effusion of bloodletting etc.
The new cleavage, I'm told, is whether to leave Putin out of the sanctions package to be adopted over the next 24 hours. Why?
4 countries led by Germany according to my sources are proposing Putin is left OFF the sanctions package under preparation for now, to be added to a potential 3rd package in order to keep a channel open. Others disagree. DE diplomat, in comment to us, did not confirm or deny.
https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496833875410132996
What more does Putin have to do?
Pacifism is a splendid thing, though I am not a pacifist. For Finland the options are these:
pacifism
Micawberism
double dealing whereby while not being in NATO a secret deal has been done
hope NATO will help anyway
winter
hope it never happens.
The Ukrainian army is in the wrong place.
Maybe Lab gain from Ind in Ferryhill but no local knowledge of the other independents standing there.
The likelihood of escalation to other areas depends on what resistance the Ukrainians put up to Russian occupation. If Putin gets bogged down, Iraq style, this might act as a brake on his ambitions. Presumably western governments will be looking at ways of backing the Ukrainian resistance.
For non NATO Finland and Sweden and Georgia which are close to Russia that is a concern.
It will also be a concern for non NATO Ireland, Austria and Switzerland but to a lesser extent as they are further away
Off to a bad start...
Russian ambassador was summoned by foreign secretary this afternoon - meeting was very short. Source says It was “tempestuous” and foreign Secretary ended the meeting early
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60508671
Cosplay Thatcher trying to make up for being humiliated in Moscow
British Virgin Islands (British Overseas Territory)?
Isle of Man (Crown Dependency)?
Cayman Islands (British Overseas Territory)?
Guernsey (Crown Dependency)?
Anguilla (British Overseas Territory)?
Jersey (Crown Dependency)?
Gibraltar (British Overseas Territory)?
Surely these bastions of Britishness can do something to help in the specialist financial services field? Or are BOTs and CDs unable to assist much in this hour of peril for the principle of national self-determination - to which they are all deeply wedded?
And there has been fierce fighting around Kharkiv, so they're not in the wrong place as much as overmatched.
So while much of the army will be in the Donbas, they seem to be spread (thinly) pretty much everywhere. It's only the Russian advance from Crimea that I haven't read anything about Ukrainian army opposition.
You could argue the West's reaction to date is not much more than 'be seen to be doing something...'
I wonder if Putin has underestimated the home situation too - apparently warnings against demonstrations, and press restrictions.
I doubt it'll happen but Putin falling flat on his face would be a good outcome.
How would you have stopped that many low flying assault helicopters (several of which were reported shot down) ?
West Dunbartonshire?
Inverclyde?
(Last one a joke. To be clear.)
So transparent...
Who on here is up for joining the Ukrainian resistance, International Brigades style? Would be nice to get some of the statue topplers signing up, they have a once in a lifetime chance to actually fight colonialism.
Zelensky = Centrist liberal
Putin = Right-wing conservative
The things that surprised me are that it sounds very much like the Old Yugoslavia. He was schooled in Russian and his family only used Russian at home though that wasn't that common. They arrived after the 'Holocaust of 1930-33'which I'd never heard of and which killed millions of Ukrainians.....it's complicated. He believes Putin has quite a lot of support from countries outside of Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly his solution is for the West to give them a nuclear weapon.
The Holodomor; it's been mentioned on here a few times. There's an academic argument about whether it was a genocide or not. Personally, I believe it was. It also feeds into why some Ukrainians really dislike Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
I am quite sure Boris' response will be inadequate and be seen to be inadequate.
For me, nothing less than Russia as a pariah state will suit me, and yes, I know that will be hard on us but Lenin was right. We'd sell Russia the rope to hang us with if we thought it'd make us a quick buck.
That mindset has to end. All trade, ALL trade with Russia has to stop.
It's got to be like the Soviet Union in the early 1920s. Won't deal with them at all.
But we won't go anywhere near that.
Russian gas lobbyist & former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls for restraint in the use of sanctions against Russia, saying this could endanger a return to peace and dialogue.
https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1496858172040130567
International brigades work both ways.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496852218535895044
Still, there are major bits of history that all of us are ignorant of, so I wouldn't judge too harshly. I frequently see references on here to historical events that I know nothing about, Google and educate myself.
I think whilst the world is an immeasurably complex place, sometimes things really are as straightforward and simple as they appear. When they are, much effort is expended trying to make it seem complicated.
Yeah, the Ukrainians giving up nuclear weapons looks like a bad call now, doesn't it?
Nonetheless, I present evidence item 2 M'Lud. Nigel Farage's tweet from today and evidence item 3, Trump's pro-Putin eulogy...er yesterday and the day before!
Perhaps he has finally made one treacherous statement too many as his lovefest with Trump and GOP continues?
Nightmare
https://twitter.com/TheBushCenter/status/1496840897257951242?s=20&t=DHIR72QDa70RhEOm8i1cSw
It's not much to sell your soul for - less than Wales.
"Visegrád 24 🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰@visegrad24·20mGermany’s Minister of Economics, Robert Habeck says that Germany will not send any weapons to Ukraine. "
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1496859449814052867?s=20&t=-eN-FBxzBSy4VJwNhAP9CQ
"Putin doesn’t use a mobile phone or the internet. His obsession with secrecy means he even limits his use of paper and often gives orders verbally in person."
The centre right and the centre left and liberals dislike Putin. Hence Johnson, Starmer and Davey are all united against Putin.
It is more an authoritarian v liberal divide than a left v right divide
The Independent
@Independent
·
11m
BREAKING: Chernobyl nuclear waste facility destroyed amid Russian invasion, reports say
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1496862467414106112?s=20&t=-eN-FBxzBSy4VJwNhAP9CQ
BUT: fog of war and all that