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Tory MP defects to Labour – politicalbetting.com

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    One of the most famous quotations in British political history.

    Incredible. What an ignoramus.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Tory friend - "dagger in the back for Boris" - he's hoping for a dignified exit but thinks Boris is going to throw a toddler tantrum and will have to be forced out.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited January 2022
    It's interesting people are mentioning WW2 on here.

    I think that, rather in the way the country dumped Churchill once the war was over, it's the fact that we are coming out of covid which makes it worse for Boris Johnson. People will forever associate him with covid. He will be remembered as the covid PM. The fact that we (hopefully) seem to be coming out of it is not helpful to Boris at all.

    We want to put it all behind us and have a fresh start. And that means a fresh PM.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    WFH mandate binned with immediate effect

    Bugger. When's the next train to Leeds...
    On the emergency timetable? Your guess is as good as mine.
  • MaxPB said:

    I think the defection today was a tactical mistake, for what it is worth.

    Allows Tories to rally to the standard in very depth of the battle.

    Yes, if anything it's overshadowed a much bigger intervention from David Davis. That alone will be enough to get the letters over the line. Boris really needs to resign to avoid the damage to the party of the VONC process.
    I think the David Davis intervention was devastating. He had no need to do that. Really makes you wonder what other MPs must be thinking. Surely, it really must be over.
    It does need 181 to vote against Boris to succeed

    Not sure the numbers are there before Grays report
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    Oh my goodness, David Davis.

    That's the Brutus moment.

    I'm wondering if it proves the suggestion made by several on here that Brexiteers have reached the point where they see BJ and his stink of death as a threat to their precious.
  • Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    I was called all sorts of names when I suggested that a month or two ago. Great to see it happening soon.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Sunak quite literally having to drag the PM back may turn out to be the most significant event imho.
    Control v Out of Control.
    Face masks? Old news. Yet to meet anyone IRL who really cares much.

    Drag Boris back when?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    Re Bury South: It seems to me that when MPs choose to change parties that they should, generally, seek a by-election. There are some exceptions - if a party splits for example.

    I think it's quite weird that anyone could (currently) go from Tory to Labour though. Labour are still very left.

    Particularly odd at Holyrood, where some MSPs are explicitly elected on the party list element, that such MSPs can leave their party but not have to give up the seat.

    OTOH part of the calculation there may be that it is better for the original party to have an independent but broadly aligned former colleague than force a by election which is de facto FPTP across the region and which one might lose - this is especially true of cases where the MSP came low in the list anyway. Akin to the problem
    one gets in analysing Scottish local gmt by elections.
    Surely Labour should get Wakeford to resign and stand again under Labour? Sends more of a powerful message that the RW seats are coming home.

    However, there might also be the argument that it looks bad if turnout is low / the majority is cut (which, judging from the comments on Bury South might be the case if local lefties don't like him).

    PS, going slightly HYFUD, you may saw that C4 poll is actually reassuring for the Tories - Labour's 48% is not that much different from the 47% it had in November 2020, which then reversed itself out. Sure, the Tories are 4% lower than then but the trend (so far) suggests the situation is recoverable.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    MaxPB said:

    I think the defection today was a tactical mistake, for what it is worth.

    Allows Tories to rally to the standard in very depth of the battle.

    Yes, if anything it's overshadowed a much bigger intervention from David Davis. That alone will be enough to get the letters over the line. Boris really needs to resign to avoid the damage to the party of the VONC process.
    I think the David Davis intervention was devastating. He had no need to do that. Really makes you wonder what other MPs must be thinking. Surely, it really must be over.
    Boris is toast. It's a matter of when, not if. I used to think it would be better for the Tories to let him absorb the local election losses but now I am not so sure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Surely Davis wouldn't do that unless he knows they have the 54 letters?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Of course the "In the name of God, go!" imperative was first articulated by Oliver Cromwell, in 1653, directed at the remaining members of the Long Parliament.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Selebian said:

    AlistairM said:

    Whatever my anger at Boris right now, I'm a bit miffed and rather surprised to see my own MP cross the floor.

    He always seemed a bit of a lightweight and not making a massive impression locally. The local Labour Party has eviscerated him, not least because of him remaining a Pendle Councillor on Lancs CC and drawing expenses for that. It will certainly be amusing to see the local Labour Party leaflets and door knockers explaining why he's now the man for the area. I'm quite looking forward to asking about that in person when they next come round.

    Many friends and family in this area detest the man. I think this defection might help the Tories hold the seat in 2024, oddly.

    Interesting info. It does seem highly likely that he is worried about losing income to support his young family. It would have been highly likely that he would lose his seat as a Tory MP and would be more likely to hold it if he joined Labour. His voting record suggests he isn't left wing at all. As much as it would be easy to complain about him doing so I do understand why he would make such a decision.
    It is strange. Why not sit as independent, which also leaves open the possibility to return to the fold should a different Con leader emerge (and, who knows, even cosy up and find a safer seat?)

    One possible conclusion is that he does not believe Johnson is toast. Somewhat interesting, if so. Of course, it's probably more likely that he just believes his seat is toast if he stays Tory, under any leader.

    Third possibility is that he had a massive bet on a Con -> Lab defection before the end of January :wink:
    He probably figures that with Johnson imploding and all the probable candidates to succeed him being non-Red Wall friendly (see Sunak etc) that the seat will go Labour next time.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stjohn said:

    DD. Double Diamond works wonders.

    He used to be in favour of support for big tits.




    Obvs a birdwatcher. Great tits. Or blue tits.
    He wouldn’t get away with that today
    I'm not sure he got away with it then!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Ooh, tuned out of PMQs just before the end, and missed David Davis tell the PM to go. Presumably one more letter heading to Sir Graham.

    Good news on the remaining restrictions getting binned in England, fingers crossed I might be able to make the PB party!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    I think David Davis has been pissed with Boris since he (Davis) resigned from Theresa's government and Boris resigned hours later and stole all the limelight ;)
  • Stocky said:

    tlg86 said:

    Face masks mandating gone from everywhere

    Boris should have announced it during PMQs and all the Tories could have taken their masks off.
    Oh yes - peel off their masks one by one and stare at the Labour benches for a full 30 seconds.

    Embarrass the opposition, who would be like rabbits caught in headlights, and give a clear demonstration of transition from pandemic to endemic.
    Would Parliament's own rules have changed inside 30 seconds?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Heathener said:

    Oh my goodness, David Davis.

    That's the Brutus moment.

    I'm wondering if it proves the point made by several on here that Brexiteers have reached the point where they see BJ and his stink of death as a threat to their precious.
    Well, a Labour government are far more likely to rejoin customs union or do a Norway deal than Tories ever are and Starmer is coming if they don't ditch the Clown.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    David Davis tells Boris to go

    Will he call a by election in protest if he doesn't? :D
    Indeed, that was an idiotic move by Davis.

    Had he remained in the Shadow Cabinet he would have been Cameron's Home Secretary in 2016 and it could have been Davis, not May who replaced Cameron as PM
    Davis undermined himself when he entirely failed to deliver anything when put in charge of the Brexit negotiations. He should never have accepted the appointment, and the idea that he once aspired to greater stations is pretty alarming. Nonetheless it doesn't make him wrong on all things.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    I can't imagine why the PM chose today, of all days, to ditch the remaining Covid restrictions. It's as if he's trying to change the agenda.

    Or maybe he has a party planned?
  • Sandpit said:

    Ooh, tuned out of PMQs just before the end, and missed David Davis tell the PM to go. Presumably one more letter heading to Sir Graham.

    Good news on the remaining restrictions getting binned in England, fingers crossed I might be able to make the PB party!

    Some conservatives have removed their masks in this statement
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    MaxPB said:

    Tory friend - "dagger in the back for Boris" - he's hoping for a dignified exit but thinks Boris is going to throw a toddler tantrum and will have to be forced out.

    Nothing Johnson has done in his whole life suggests there would be a "dignified" exit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sunak quite literally having to drag the PM back may turn out to be the most significant event imho.
    Control v Out of Control.
    Face masks? Old news. Yet to meet anyone IRL who really cares much.

    Drag Boris back when?
    He tried to get back to his feet. Sunak pulled on his jacket. Re Royal Rumble.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    The union jack is a terrible choice for a face mask. It's looks horrifying.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    The only people more upset than the Tories about the Wakeford defection are the Corbyn loons on the left.

    It's classic isn't it?

    Tory MP crosses the floor and joins Labour. Response from the Left: "Why don't you f-off and join the Tories?"

    And yet entryists from the SWP and various other fringe outfits are welcomed by them with open arms.
    Labour is a Democratic Socialist Party

    The new member of the PLP is not.

    You may be personally OK with that I am not
    Has a request to cross the floor (to be clear, not between opposition parties) ever been refused?

    I guess some due diligence is there, but not at the level of an Anglican being prepared for Catholic confirmation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Was David Davis already included in the list of Tory MPs sending letters to Graham Brady?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    Stocky said:

    tlg86 said:

    Face masks mandating gone from everywhere

    Boris should have announced it during PMQs and all the Tories could have taken their masks off.
    Oh yes - peel off their masks one by one and stare at the Labour benches for a full 30 seconds.

    Embarrass the opposition, who would be like rabbits caught in headlights, and give a clear demonstration of transition from pandemic to endemic.
    A clearer demonstration of both failing to take their own advice (they still recommended wearing masks indoors, it is just not mandatory) and the selfishness of these Tories (you are principally wearing your mask to protect others, not yourself) I could not imagine. So that's probably why not.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Surely Davis wouldn't do that unless he knows they have the 54 letters?

    On the contrary, I’d have thought he wouldn’t have done it if the letters were in.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    MaxPB said:

    Tory friend - "dagger in the back for Boris" - he's hoping for a dignified exit but thinks Boris is going to throw a toddler tantrum and will have to be forced out.

    Time for the cabinet to grow a pair.

    If Boris fights this and somehow wins he drags the whole party down into the abyss. There’s no coming back now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sunak quite literally having to drag the PM back may turn out to be the most significant event imho.
    Control v Out of Control.
    Face masks? Old news. Yet to meet anyone IRL who really cares much.

    Drag Boris back when?
    He tried to get back to his feet. Sunak pulled on his jacket. Re Royal Rumble.
    Ah tks
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited January 2022
    Davis is a bit of a d1ck and this is exactly the sort of cheap stunt he likes to pull to eke out a bit of publicity at the fag end of his career.

    That doesn't diminish its significance, though. He has weight on the Tory backbenches and it's good and dramatic timing to galvanise those with letters written but not popped in Brady's pigeonhole.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Aaaaaggggghhhh!!!!
    Bury South is not Red Wall.
    It is a classic marginal.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I think David Davis has been pissed with Boris since he (Davis) resigned from Theresa's government and Boris resigned hours later and stole all the limelight ;)

    Plus he's a regular member of the 'awkward squad' of rebels on things like dropping international aid to 0.5 and much much more. Almost every rebellion has had his name in it, so I'm not remotely surprised he's put the letter in and wouldn't read too much into it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    R4 lunchtime news leading with defection and DD.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Great fightback, pretty clear win for Johnson.

    SKS fans please explain.

    I can explain why Boris was handed a clear win, Starmer was self satisfied and complacent and not serious enough in approach to channel the electorates anger and hurt as he done well last week. You get your tone and strategy wrong, you hand the win to the other side and make yourself look bad like he did.

    I’ll contrast it with another good example. Prime ministers questions but Boris didn’t go near answering a single question. However what he did do, if you put all his answers together especially the last one, was deliver a far better conference speech than he delivered at the last party conference. At the conference Boris speech got tone and strategy all wrong, partly landed him in this trouble. If he delivered “todays speech” at the conference it would have been much better received.
    I was joking, but I genuinely thought BJ was unexpectedly upbeat. David Davis redressed the balance though

    SKS giving a fairly good part 2 kicking in response to Covid statement, though
    Interested on that last bit (not watching and 'live' reporting hasn't reported that yet). I'd have thought SKS would be on the defensive about that, given that the government has been shown to be right and Labour have been shown to be wrong.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited January 2022
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh my goodness, David Davis.

    That's the Brutus moment.

    Is it Boris's Geoffrey Howe moment
    Maybe, But mumbling that prehistoric line was hardly in the league of Howe's "cricket bat" speech.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    MASK MANDATES BINNED

    We wouldn't have had this yet if it wasn't for the No 10 parties. Huzzah for Boris' parties.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Davis is a bit of a d1ck and this is exactly the sort of cheap stunt he likes to pull to eke out a bit of publicity at the fag end of his career.

    That doesn't diminish its significance, though. He has weight on the Tory backbenches and it's good and dramatic timing to galvanise those with letters written but not popped in Brady's pigeonhole.

    About where I am. Usual portentious pompous stuff from him, but not worthless for all that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Just tuned in. Good grief.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    dixiedean said:

    Aaaaaggggghhhh!!!!
    Bury South is not Red Wall.
    It is a classic marginal.

    North of Watford it's all the same...
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Its interesting that some of the most outspoken of Boris's opponents are cast iron brexiteers - Davis, Bridgen, Wragg.

    Boris was their man. There is zero guarantee any new leader would be any different.

    What's their game here?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    R4 lunchtime news leading with defection and DD.

    Something of a left-right sucker punch really.

    I can't see how Boris escapes from this, although I'll still believe it when I see it.

    I thought we had lived through enough crazy times with Brexit and then that utterly bonkers Remainer parliament but we're back to high drama Westminster politics.
  • I can't imagine why the PM chose today, of all days, to ditch the remaining Covid restrictions. It's as if he's trying to change the agenda.

    Or maybe he has a party planned?

    An announcement was due today because the restrictions are due to lapse next week so an announcement has to be made as to whether they'd be renewed or not.

    If not today, when should the announcement have been made before they lapse next week?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Davey calls for BJ to go. This is turning into pmqs by other means.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    GIN1138 said:

    I think David Davis has been pissed with Boris since he (Davis) resigned from Theresa's government and Boris resigned hours later and stole all the limelight ;)

    Plus he's a regular member of the 'awkward squad' of rebels on things like dropping international aid to 0.5 and much much more. Almost every rebellion has had his name in it, so I'm not remotely surprised he's put the letter in and wouldn't read too much into it.
    He has told the Sun he has not yet put a letter, according to Guido.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited January 2022
    MISTY said:

    Its interesting that some of the most outspoken of Boris's opponents are cast iron brexiteers - Davis, Bridgen, Wragg.

    Boris was their man. There is zero guarantee any new leader would be any different.

    What's their game here?

    He is of no further use to them. The issue is that Partygate has made him a complete busted flush. It will be used time and time again against the Tories. It will be dragged out at every opportunity on the doorsteps. It is a guaranteed election losing millstone.

    The Tory Party likes winning elections. The self preservation instinct is kicking in.
  • That was an entertaining PMQs.

    Boris did quite well and I should say on that performance he is not quitting. The caveat concerns the unexpected intervention from David Davis. That kind of thing has to be preplanned and doesn't augur well for the PM.

    Starmer continues to be in the posiiton of team penalty-kick taker. He is always expected to score but he continues to do so, and with some aplomb today. He has to watch out for smugness of course and I see his self-satisfied grinning attracted some adverse comments here. Since he is more commonly criticised for lack of humour and personality this may be a good sign. He was clearly enjoying himself, and if that offends some, you'd have to say 'can't please everyone'.

    On balance I'd say Johnson was happy that he survived. Starmer too would be happy that Johnson survived.

    Everybody happy then! :)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Selebian said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Great fightback, pretty clear win for Johnson.

    SKS fans please explain.

    I can explain why Boris was handed a clear win, Starmer was self satisfied and complacent and not serious enough in approach to channel the electorates anger and hurt as he done well last week. You get your tone and strategy wrong, you hand the win to the other side and make yourself look bad like he did.

    I’ll contrast it with another good example. Prime ministers questions but Boris didn’t go near answering a single question. However what he did do, if you put all his answers together especially the last one, was deliver a far better conference speech than he delivered at the last party conference. At the conference Boris speech got tone and strategy all wrong, partly landed him in this trouble. If he delivered “todays speech” at the conference it would have been much better received.
    I was joking, but I genuinely thought BJ was unexpectedly upbeat. David Davis redressed the balance though

    SKS giving a fairly good part 2 kicking in response to Covid statement, though
    Interested on that last bit (not watching and 'live' reporting hasn't reported that yet). I'd have thought SKS would be on the defensive about that, given that the government has been shown to be right and Labour have been shown to be wrong.
    His basic point, BJ incapable of carrying on business of govt at all
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    MASK MANDATES BINNED

    Was always going to be - no way to keep it under the current circumstances.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    I was called all sorts of names when I suggested that a month or two ago. Great to see it happening soon.

    All I called you was an overexcitable bunny for foaming performatively about something that was obviously going to happen in a few short weeks.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Selebian said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Great fightback, pretty clear win for Johnson.

    SKS fans please explain.

    I can explain why Boris was handed a clear win, Starmer was self satisfied and complacent and not serious enough in approach to channel the electorates anger and hurt as he done well last week. You get your tone and strategy wrong, you hand the win to the other side and make yourself look bad like he did.

    I’ll contrast it with another good example. Prime ministers questions but Boris didn’t go near answering a single question. However what he did do, if you put all his answers together especially the last one, was deliver a far better conference speech than he delivered at the last party conference. At the conference Boris speech got tone and strategy all wrong, partly landed him in this trouble. If he delivered “todays speech” at the conference it would have been much better received.
    I was joking, but I genuinely thought BJ was unexpectedly upbeat. David Davis redressed the balance though

    SKS giving a fairly good part 2 kicking in response to Covid statement, though
    Interested on that last bit (not watching and 'live' reporting hasn't reported that yet). I'd have thought SKS would be on the defensive about that, given that the government has been shown to be right and Labour have been shown to be wrong.
    My understanding was that Labour were going along with the experts as were the government. i don't believe the public believe Labour had a distinctive Covid policy. PMQs will be noted for two things and only two. Starmer is MUCH better than any of us thought and the DAVID DAVIS MOMENT
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    DD says he has not put letter in.
  • dixiedean said:

    Aaaaaggggghhhh!!!!
    Bury South is not Red Wall.
    It is a classic marginal.

    Whilst I agree it has never been the reddest seat in the red wall, it's also not a "classic marginal" in that it was won by Labour by 7%, 10% and 12% (not ultra-safe of course, but not shabby majorities) in 2010, 2015, and 2017. Indeed, it probably would have been Labour in 2019 had the sitting Labour MP not stood as an independent (he got a derisory vote but enough to make the difference).

    I'd say a classic Con/Lab marginal is one where you'd generally expect the MP to be a governing party MP.
  • Endillion said:

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    I was called all sorts of names when I suggested that a month or two ago. Great to see it happening soon.

    Yes, because a month or two ago it would have been totally inappropriate.

    My wife calls me names if I suggest turning off the heating in February, but suddenly in May she's all for it.
    Nice try but I was saying that at some point next year (now this year) we should be looking to drop the measure and March is quite early this year relatively. This is coming faster than I expected. 👍

    The reaction of a lot of people here was that it would never be appropriate for the legal restriction on isolation for the positive to be dropped. Not that it should only be dropped in March instead.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    MISTY said:

    Its interesting that some of the most outspoken of Boris's opponents are cast iron brexiteers - Davis, Bridgen, Wragg.

    Boris was their man. There is zero guarantee any new leader would be any different.

    What's their game here?

    Yep this was the point also of my jokey response about how left wing the current Conservative Gov't is.

    I don't think Johnson had a wide base of support when he took over. He's too aloof, slippery, mendacious and disloyal for that.

    But he has managed to piss off every wing of the party. The high tax high spend policies have particularly galled traditional Conservatives and some of his policies would have happily fitted into Jeremy Corbyn's cabal.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Wouldn't it have made more sense for Wakeford to defect after his letter has helped to bring about a confidence vote in Johnson? Now it won't count.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    MaxPB said:

    Tory friend - "dagger in the back for Boris" - he's hoping for a dignified exit but thinks Boris is going to throw a toddler tantrum and will have to be forced out.

    Boris had an opportunity for a dignified exit a week ago. Too late now, he's so clearly had to be dragged to the exit kicking, screaming, and crying about how unfair it all is. It's not a pretty sight, but he's entirely responsible for it happening this way.
    Leaving with less dignity than Donald Trump will be his legacy...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    mwadams said:

    Stocky said:

    tlg86 said:

    Face masks mandating gone from everywhere

    Boris should have announced it during PMQs and all the Tories could have taken their masks off.
    Oh yes - peel off their masks one by one and stare at the Labour benches for a full 30 seconds.

    Embarrass the opposition, who would be like rabbits caught in headlights, and give a clear demonstration of transition from pandemic to endemic.
    A clearer demonstration of both failing to take their own advice (they still recommended wearing masks indoors, it is just not mandatory) and the selfishness of these Tories (you are principally wearing your mask to protect others, not yourself) I could not imagine. So that's probably why not.
    Of course, that's exactly how the Tories used to behave in the Commons, and what made such a terrible impression.

    What a brilliant idea. Keep Boris on and rub people's noses in it.

  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    Was that said? I was intermittently listening on 5Live. For me, that's the end of the Pandemic. Would be good news. March seems a bit brisk imo, but on current trends, by March, I might very well agree with it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Andy_JS said:

    Wouldn't it have made more sense for Wakeford to defect after his letter has helped to bring about a confidence vote in Johnson? Now it won't count.

    Yep. I think it was a tactical mistake by labour mainly for reason it will trigger a rally to the standard by wavering tories.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    MISTY said:

    The end of restrictions is a pretty big win for the tories in the light of what's happening in Europe and elsewhere.

    Why let a few drinks parties obscure that?

    Well it's a win for those cabinet members who stood firm in the week before Christmas. And for the 100-odd who rebelled on Plan B.
  • Unpopular said:

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    Was that said? I was intermittently listening on 5Live. For me, that's the end of the Pandemic. Would be good news. March seems a bit brisk imo, but on current trends, by March, I might very well agree with it.
    Yes he said that that lapses in March and he would not be looking to renew it, and would like to have a vote in Parliament possibly sooner to end it earlier than that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    dixiedean said:

    Aaaaaggggghhhh!!!!
    Bury South is not Red Wall.
    It is a classic marginal.

    Whilst I agree it has never been the reddest seat in the red wall, it's also not a "classic marginal" in that it was won by Labour by 7%, 10% and 12% (not ultra-safe of course, but not shabby majorities) in 2010, 2015, and 2017. Indeed, it probably would have been Labour in 2019 had the sitting Labour MP not stood as an independent (he got a derisory vote but enough to make the difference).

    I'd say a classic Con/Lab marginal is one where you'd generally expect the MP to be a governing party MP.
    I'd say it is a classic marginal. David Sumberg won it by small majorities in 1983, 1987 and 1992 for the Tories.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    DD says he has not put letter in.

    Why not? If you stand up and call for someone to go then it is your responsibility to do everything to bring that about.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited January 2022

    That was an entertaining PMQs.

    Boris did quite well and I should say on that performance he is not quitting. The caveat concerns the unexpected intervention from David Davis. That kind of thing has to be preplanned and doesn't augur well for the PM.

    Starmer continues to be in the posiiton of team penalty-kick taker. He is always expected to score but he continues to do so, and with some aplomb today. He has to watch out for smugness of course and I see his self-satisfied grinning attracted some adverse comments here. Since he is more commonly criticised for lack of humour and personality this may be a good sign. He was clearly enjoying himself, and if that offends some, you'd have to say 'can't please everyone'.

    All the greatest performances at PMQ's in my lifetime have contained an element of humour, smugness and put-down. I'm thinking of Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair in particular. The former was fantastic at it. It really incensed her detractors but it conveyed the message of being a powerful person who was in command. And heck she was.

    I think people on here were probably just rather shocked to see it in Starmer. He's clearly feeling pretty secure and good about things.

    (It's also worth pointing out that much of the country is laughing at the absurdities of Boris Johnson. We've gone from revulsion at what happened to mockery at his responses.)
  • A few months ago remember it was nailed on at least three Labour MPs were going to defect to the Tories.

    What a time to be alive.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/10/03/keir-and-loathing-in-the-labour-party/
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Not entirely sure Davis’s intervention is a positive for those who want Boris out.

    He’s a preening prima donna and there might be a fair fee Tories who think that whilst they want to get rid of Boris but not because DD said something unoriginal and they certainly won’t want his giant oversized head floating forever as the Howe to Boris.

    I think if another senior/respected Tory who didn’t have the same history as Davis had done it then it would have been a killer blow.
  • Endillion said:

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    I was called all sorts of names when I suggested that a month or two ago. Great to see it happening soon.

    Yes, because a month or two ago it would have been totally inappropriate.

    My wife calls me names if I suggest turning off the heating in February, but suddenly in May she's all for it.
    Nice try but I was saying that at some point next year (now this year) we should be looking to drop the measure and March is quite early this year relatively. This is coming faster than I expected. 👍

    The reaction of a lot of people here was that it would never be appropriate for the legal restriction on isolation for the positive to be dropped. Not that it should only be dropped in March instead.
    Can you link to some of the posts that said it would never be appropriate for the legal restriction on isolation for the positive to be dropped?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Unpopular said:

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    Was that said? I was intermittently listening on 5Live. For me, that's the end of the Pandemic. Would be good news. March seems a bit brisk imo, but on current trends, by March, I might very well agree with it.
    95K cases yesterday and rules being scrapped. Compare to NZ with about ~20 cases/day and the entire country cut off from the outside world. It has been a hard road for many people but hopefully we can now move forward. The Zero-Covid approach may turn out to be a much trickier path in the long run.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory friend - "dagger in the back for Boris" - he's hoping for a dignified exit but thinks Boris is going to throw a toddler tantrum and will have to be forced out.

    Boris had an opportunity for a dignified exit a week ago. Too late now, he's so clearly had to be dragged to the exit kicking, screaming, and crying about how unfair it all is. It's not a pretty sight, but he's entirely responsible for it happening this way.
    Leaving with less dignity than Donald Trump will be his legacy...
    I doubt that when BJ is binned he will be banned from Twitter for saying his is still PM etc.

    Not sure that he will much more than a single tank to attack Parliament with, as well...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    MISTY said:

    Its interesting that some of the most outspoken of Boris's opponents are cast iron brexiteers - Davis, Bridgen, Wragg.

    Boris was their man. There is zero guarantee any new leader would be any different.

    What's their game here?

    He is of no further use to them. The issue is that Partygate has made him a complete busted flush. It will be used time and time again against the Tories. It will be dragged out at every opportunity on the doorsteps. It is a guaranteed election losing millstone.

    The Tory Party likes winning elections. The self preservation instinct is kicking in.
    Or it could be Boris, through both incompetence and design, is now seen by brexiteers as a blocker on delivering Brexit.

    Brexit is not done is it. To use an allegory, a door has been opened but we are still to pass through. Does Lord Frost and the party wing he represents think Brexit is done? Nope. Unless we now embrace freedom to break with the European social model they will call it Brexit not done, Brexit betrayal. Meanwhile there are those tory who would take Brexit in the other pro business direction, Remainer Mays softer brexit.

    It could be a mistake to think Brexit is done and not still driving factional politics in the Conservative Party.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    GIN1138 said:

    I think David Davis has been pissed with Boris since he (Davis) resigned from Theresa's government and Boris resigned hours later and stole all the limelight ;)

    He's just done the same thing to Boris by overshadowing his announcement about WFH and masks.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    The only people more upset than the Tories about the Wakeford defection are the Corbyn loons on the left.

    It's classic isn't it?

    Tory MP crosses the floor and joins Labour. Response from the Left: "Why don't you f-off and join the Tories?"

    And yet entryists from the SWP and various other fringe outfits are welcomed by them with open arms.
    Labour is a Democratic Socialist Party

    The new member of the PLP is not.

    You may be personally OK with that I am not
    He might be a Dem Soc who was pretending before that he wasn't. It's hard to know what people are if their decisions are driven purely by careerist concerns.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    boulay said:

    Not entirely sure Davis’s intervention is a positive for those who want Boris out.

    It's a nett positive for anyone who wants the Conservative and Unionist Party to recover from infiltration by the Little Englander Brexiteers.

    Tearing each other apart works for now
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    AlistairM said:

    DD says he has not put letter in.

    Why not? If you stand up and call for someone to go then it is your responsibility to do everything to bring that about.
    Takes time and effort.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Selebian said:

    AlistairM said:

    Whatever my anger at Boris right now, I'm a bit miffed and rather surprised to see my own MP cross the floor.

    He always seemed a bit of a lightweight and not making a massive impression locally. The local Labour Party has eviscerated him, not least because of him remaining a Pendle Councillor on Lancs CC and drawing expenses for that. It will certainly be amusing to see the local Labour Party leaflets and door knockers explaining why he's now the man for the area. I'm quite looking forward to asking about that in person when they next come round.

    Many friends and family in this area detest the man. I think this defection might help the Tories hold the seat in 2024, oddly.

    Interesting info. It does seem highly likely that he is worried about losing income to support his young family. It would have been highly likely that he would lose his seat as a Tory MP and would be more likely to hold it if he joined Labour. His voting record suggests he isn't left wing at all. As much as it would be easy to complain about him doing so I do understand why he would make such a decision.
    It is strange. Why not sit as independent, which also leaves open the possibility to return to the fold should a different Con leader emerge (and, who knows, even cosy up and find a safer seat?)

    One possible conclusion is that he does not believe Johnson is toast. Somewhat interesting, if so. Of course, it's probably more likely that he just believes his seat is toast if he stays Tory, under any leader.

    Third possibility is that he had a massive bet on a Con -> Lab defection before the end of January :wink:
    He probably figures that with Johnson imploding and all the probable candidates to succeed him being non-Red Wall friendly (see Sunak etc) that the seat will go Labour next time.
    Not a Red Wall seat though IMO.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Aaaaaggggghhhh!!!!
    Bury South is not Red Wall.
    It is a classic marginal.

    Whilst I agree it has never been the reddest seat in the red wall, it's also not a "classic marginal" in that it was won by Labour by 7%, 10% and 12% (not ultra-safe of course, but not shabby majorities) in 2010, 2015, and 2017. Indeed, it probably would have been Labour in 2019 had the sitting Labour MP not stood as an independent (he got a derisory vote but enough to make the difference).

    I'd say a classic Con/Lab marginal is one where you'd generally expect the MP to be a governing party MP.
    I'd say it is a classic marginal. David Sumberg won it by small majorities in 1983, 1987 and 1992 for the Tories.
    It's also interesting in that it's one of the most Jewish seats in the country. I'd say this was a big part of its swing against Labour in 2019.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Wouldn't it have made more sense for Wakeford to defect after his letter has helped to bring about a confidence vote in Johnson? Now it won't count.

    Wakeford's reasoning may very well be that Johnson is a busted flush, but none of the leading alternatives are particularly appealing, and the next election is lost (not just in his seat, although certainly that, but generally).

    That being the case, it makes little difference if he contributes to a VONC or not - if it means the letters stop at 53 (fairly unlikely but possible I suppose) why does he care? He thinks the Tories, and he, would lose with Johnson, or with Sunak. He wants to make a splash with a PMQ defection to boost his new party, and hopefully get his reward in career terms in a Labour Party that he sees as likely to be forming a Government in a couple of years time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited January 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Aaaaaggggghhhh!!!!
    Bury South is not Red Wall.
    It is a classic marginal.

    Whilst I agree it has never been the reddest seat in the red wall, it's also not a "classic marginal" in that it was won by Labour by 7%, 10% and 12% (not ultra-safe of course, but not shabby majorities) in 2010, 2015, and 2017. Indeed, it probably would have been Labour in 2019 had the sitting Labour MP not stood as an independent (he got a derisory vote but enough to make the difference).

    I'd say a classic Con/Lab marginal is one where you'd generally expect the MP to be a governing party MP.
    Yes. Although was Tory when a Tory government from creation (83-97). Labour thereafter.
    I may have been confused with Bury North which has gone with largest Party every time except 2017.
    Not Red Wall, mind.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    What have you heard? I'm about to place a bet on there not being a permanents new CP leader until 1 April. You've made me hesitate!
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    GIN1138 said:

    I think David Davis has been pissed with Boris since he (Davis) resigned from Theresa's government and Boris resigned hours later and stole all the limelight ;)

    Plus he's a regular member of the 'awkward squad' of rebels on things like dropping international aid to 0.5 and much much more. Almost every rebellion has had his name in it, so I'm not remotely surprised he's put the letter in and wouldn't read too much into it.
    He has an interesting history. Famously threw away the Conservative leadership by making a terrible speech, resigned from Cameron Shadow Cabinet to force a by-election (can't remember what on), resigned as Brexit minister from May's cabinet. Also has cross-party friendships, notably with Alastair Campbell and Alex Salmond. Very much his own man. I think in calling for Boris to go he just felt he was acting in national interest and doesn't much care about personal repercussions.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    You are. I'm not.

    The worst PM of my lifetime. Totally unsuited for this crisis. Actually unsuited for any office. A chaotic, appalling, lying, opportunistic, thoroughly nasty piece of work who threw Paterson under the bus and habitually shafts people.

    If he's the sort of person you like, Sean, then you're welcome to him. The rest of us will move on and look back on this as the most disastrous premiership of our lives.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779

    A few months ago remember it was nailed on at least three Labour MPs were going to defect to the Tories.

    What a time to be alive.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/10/03/keir-and-loathing-in-the-labour-party/

    A new day has dawned, has it not?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    DD says he has not put letter in.

    That's ridiculous. Pompous, puffed-up grandstanding.

    Thick as mince and full of his own importance as someone once said.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    Labour will miss him if he's replaced by a more formidable opponent. The rest of the country? I doubt it.
  • boulay said:

    Not entirely sure Davis’s intervention is a positive for those who want Boris out.

    He’s a preening prima donna and there might be a fair fee Tories who think that whilst they want to get rid of Boris but not because DD said something unoriginal and they certainly won’t want his giant oversized head floating forever as the Howe to Boris.

    I think if another senior/respected Tory who didn’t have the same history as Davis had done it then it would have been a killer blow.

    Boris claiming not to recognise the quote might have been a mistake though. He lies reflexively.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    Your back 🤗
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Aaaaaggggghhhh!!!!
    Bury South is not Red Wall.
    It is a classic marginal.

    Whilst I agree it has never been the reddest seat in the red wall, it's also not a "classic marginal" in that it was won by Labour by 7%, 10% and 12% (not ultra-safe of course, but not shabby majorities) in 2010, 2015, and 2017. Indeed, it probably would have been Labour in 2019 had the sitting Labour MP not stood as an independent (he got a derisory vote but enough to make the difference).

    I'd say a classic Con/Lab marginal is one where you'd generally expect the MP to be a governing party MP.
    Yes. Although was Tory when a Tory government from creation (83-97). Labour thereafter.
    I may have been confused with Bury North which has gone with largest Party every time except 2017.
    Not Red Wall, mind.
    It's not Bolsover, I agree. But Midlands/North of England, and generally Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    You are. I'm not.

    The worst PM of my lifetime. Totally unsuited for this crisis. Actually unsuited for any office. A chaotic, appalling, lying, opportunistic, thoroughly nasty piece of work who threw Paterson under the bus and habitually shafts people.

    If he's the sort of person you like, Sean, then you're welcome to him. The rest of us will move on and look back on this as the most disastrous premiership of our lives.
    I'm not "Sean"

    I AM the guy who ill-advisedly used the R word in relation to a certain Scottish politician. I honestly thought that carefully putting a Y on the end of it made it non-libellous, but the moderators disagreed, and they are the ones who might face any libel action - so I have apologised to them, and I have accepted my yellow card without demur.

    Onwards! Unlike Boris
  • Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    We being Leon, Eadric, Byronic, LadyG etc.
    Vlad was here so briefly that it's hard to know what were his/her/their feelings towards BJ.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, tuned out of PMQs just before the end, and missed David Davis tell the PM to go. Presumably one more letter heading to Sir Graham.

    Good news on the remaining restrictions getting binned in England, fingers crossed I might be able to make the PB party!

    He said on R4 that he hasn’t sent a letter! Work that one out.

    It would be worth checking recent PMQs to see if Davis has been trying to catch the eye for some weeks?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    On R4 David Davis said turning point for him was Rigby interview where Johnson didn’t show leadership and take responsibility.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    We being Leon, Eadric, Byronic, LadyG etc.
    Vlad was here so briefly that it's hard to know what were his/her/their feelings towards BJ.
    You missed another I suspect (apol if I'm wrong). I wish @Lion_of_Penarth would re-appear with his hilarious nonsense.
  • Endillion said:

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    I was called all sorts of names when I suggested that a month or two ago. Great to see it happening soon.

    Yes, because a month or two ago it would have been totally inappropriate.

    My wife calls me names if I suggest turning off the heating in February, but suddenly in May she's all for it.
    Nice try but I was saying that at some point next year (now this year) we should be looking to drop the measure and March is quite early this year relatively. This is coming faster than I expected. 👍

    The reaction of a lot of people here was that it would never be appropriate for the legal restriction on isolation for the positive to be dropped. Not that it should only be dropped in March instead.
    Can you link to some of the posts that said it would never be appropriate for the legal restriction on isolation for the positive to be dropped?
    No I don't have much time to be online ATM so can't spend it searching but the reaction from many like @RochdalePioneers etc was vitriolic that it was basically saying people should be allowed to go out and kill others.

    Not that the time wasn't right, but that it'd be killing others.

    Maybe they meant that as of March it'd be perfectly fine to kill others but that's certainly not the impression I got from the vitriol levelled at the suggestion.
  • Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    We being Leon, Eadric, Byronic, LadyG etc.
    Vlad was here so briefly that it's hard to know what were his/her/their feelings towards BJ.
    The clue is in the name FFS. Vlad. Russian. Like Boris.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    On R4 David Davis said turning point for him was Rigby interview where Johnson didn’t show leadership and take responsibility.

    That was hardly a stunning diversion from the mean.
This discussion has been closed.