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Tory MP defects to Labour – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2022 in General
Tory MP defects to Labour – politicalbetting.com

A very warm welcome to Christian Wakeford MP!The new Labour MP for Bury South. ? pic.twitter.com/kfpbob6VC9

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,916
    Not enough popcorn in the world for this.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,407
    Happy days!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    An actual floor-crossing at PMQs?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    Looks like it.

    His letter presumably won’t count now.
  • Sandpit said:

    An actual floor-crossing at PMQs?

    Just need a mace grabbing for full house.
  • Boris must go and go now
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Poor Andrew Bowie on politics live, this is the stuff of nightmares for backbenchers.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    I suspect that this will actually help Boris.

    I wonder if Starmer is trying to keep Boris in place?
  • One less vonc vote. Good news for Boris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IanB2 said:

    Looks like it.

    His letter presumably won’t count now.

    That must be right. Does it change the threshold?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2022
    In negotiation for 4 months???

    What was happening in September to prompt that?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    A warm welcome to Comrade Wakeford.

    Any more to follow, I wonder?

    Really?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    When will the by-election be?
  • tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Apparently there won't be one
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Another Tory MP in PLP


    LOL

    Boris fan please explain
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited January 2022

    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Apparently there won't be one
    Oh???

    i n n o c e n t f a c e
  • tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    No by election, straight defection.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Looks like it.

    His letter presumably won’t count now.

    That must be right. Does it change the threshold?
    I am guessing not, as the loss of Paterson did
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Treacherous Pig Dog
  • Perfect timing.

    Mike's busy and I'm with the other half.

    Christian Wakeford and Boris Johnson might end my relationship.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Starmer wants Johnson to stay. He wouldn't have done this today if he didn't.
  • alex_ said:

    In negotiation for 4 months???

    What was happening in September to prompt that?

    Afghanistan?
  • Will this be Boris's last pmgs ?

    Fingers crossed
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Roughly the same time as the immediate general election that Johnson's successor will obviously feel obliged to call in order to the decent thing and ensure that their mandate is supported by the electorate at large.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Wakeford merely trying to save his seat. Even if the Tories scraped a narrow 1992 style re election Labour would gain his Bury South seat.

    Nothing more
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Perfect timing.

    Mike's busy and I'm with the other half.

    Christian Wakeford and Boris Johnson might end my relationship.

    Worse for you than Mark Reckless?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Wakeford merely trying to save his seat. Even if the Tories scraped a narrow 1992 style re election Labour would gain his Bury South seat.

    Nothing more

    Of course you dismiss this
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    HYUFD said:

    Wakeford merely trying to save his seat. Even if the Tories scraped a narrow 1992 style re election Labour would gain his Bury South seat.

    Nothing more

    It doesn’t need to be anything more. The red wall Tories know they are doomed under Johnson.
  • Sandpit said:

    Perfect timing.

    Mike's busy and I'm with the other half.

    Christian Wakeford and Boris Johnson might end my relationship.

    Worse for you than Mark Reckless?
    I was in a foul mood that day.

    He defected about five minutes after Everton scored an injury time equaliser in the Merseyside derby.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Lol, Johnson really does not have a grip on his party at all. The whole thing looks absolutely shambolic
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    tlg86 said:

    Starmer wants Johnson to stay. He wouldn't have done this today if he didn't.

    Of course he does, although I doubt this will have much of an effect on that either way.

    Still, it is an embarrassing disaster for the government and a hammer blow for the red wall caucus.
  • It's like the 1990s all over again :lol:
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,916
    HYUFD said:

    Wakeford merely trying to save his seat. Even if the Tories scraped a narrow 1992 style re election Labour would gain his Bury South seat.

    Nothing more

    There are no tanks in Baghdad...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    IanB2 said:

    Looks like it.

    His letter presumably won’t count now.

    Yes, great news for Boris.
    Is he therefore hoping for another ten or twenty defections ?
  • Wakeford just walked into the chamber to massive cheers as he took his place on the Labour benches.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631

    Another Tory MP in PLP


    LOL

    Boris fan please explain
    On topic - grimmest PMQ run up for the PM that I can remember.

    I think that @bigjohnowls is referring to the habit of certain ultra-ultra-left types of referring to everyone in the Labour party who isn't an ultra-ultra leftist as a Tory...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096

    Lol, Johnson really does not have a grip on his party at all. The whole thing looks absolutely shambolic

    Their heavy handed threats to try and get loyalty has backfired
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Polruan said:

    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Roughly the same time as the immediate general election that Johnson's successor will obviously feel obliged to call in order to the decent thing and ensure that their mandate is supported by the electorate at large.
    I don't understand why you wouldn't call a by-election. Surely you want the publicity of saying "look, I'm giving the people the chance to validate my decision, etc. etc."
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,094
    HYUFD said:

    Wakeford merely trying to save his seat. Even if the Tories scraped a narrow 1992 style re election Labour would gain his Bury South seat.

    Nothing more

    Ah, yes. Crossing the floor is super-common for MPs worried about their parliamentary majorities in what is nominally mid-term. Happens every day.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Heathener said:

    I suspect that this will actually help Boris.

    I wonder if Starmer is trying to keep Boris in place?

    Agreed it will help Boris

    Starmer will not want to keep Boris in place IMO as only Boris can keep former Labour voters in place
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,794
    I love politics

    🍿
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    Idiot LauraK thinking Wendy is the by-election winner
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Here goes!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited January 2022
    Corbynistas not happy.

    'You realise right, that centrist Labour sabotaged two general elections? This just shows Labour are actually Tory 2, the backup team. Pointless.'
    https://twitter.com/raystonian/status/1483769632431480832?s=20

    'You see the problem with Labour taking tories into its ranks though?'
    https://twitter.com/FALLLFAN/status/1483770154513272837?s=20

    'I can't believe I have to explain this, but winning an election is meaningless if the only material change is the colour and name of the governing party'
    https://twitter.com/thetertus/status/1483769753638424579?s=20

    'More Tories in the Parliamentary Labour Party. That’s *exactly* what we need.'
    https://twitter.com/MrGeorgePRS/status/1483769897612161026?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590

    Treacherous Pig Dog

    Didn't you recently switch yourself ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235
    edited January 2022
    alex_ said:

    In negotiation for 4 months???

    What was happening in September to prompt that?

    Wasn't that the same time there were rumours of five Labour MPs about to defect to the Tories? How bizarre.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    A question I asked years ago:

    If you send a letter to Brady (not old lady...), can you recall it if you want? I.e. send in a letter contradicting it.

    If not, do letters have a lifetime? If I was an MP and sent it in two years ago, does it still count?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    Wendy nicking Starmer first question
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    His suit is back to being a mess.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    tlg86 said:

    Polruan said:

    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Roughly the same time as the immediate general election that Johnson's successor will obviously feel obliged to call in order to the decent thing and ensure that their mandate is supported by the electorate at large.
    I don't understand why you wouldn't call a by-election. Surely you want the publicity of saying "look, I'm giving the people the chance to validate my decision, etc. etc."
    presumably because of the small, but not negligible, chance that he will not re-win the seat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    edited January 2022

    A question I asked years ago:

    If you send a letter to Brady (not old lady...), can you recall it if you want? I.e. send in a letter contradicting it.

    If not, do letters have a lifetime? If I was an MP and sent it in two years ago, does it still count?

    Yes, and no (they last for ever, until withdrawn)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Seems to have a bit of his mojo back, upon opening remarks.

    The questions from Lab might be just single-toned and if he has prepped he will be able to bat them away.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    tlg86 said:

    Polruan said:

    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Roughly the same time as the immediate general election that Johnson's successor will obviously feel obliged to call in order to the decent thing and ensure that their mandate is supported by the electorate at large.
    I don't understand why you wouldn't call a by-election. Surely you want the publicity of saying "look, I'm giving the people the chance to validate my decision, etc. etc."
    Yeah, to be fair in this case, where I'm sure he'd win, it would be a nice bit of publicity - but I'm not sure either party would like to set the precedent that a fresh mandate is required. That said, maybe it would be in Labour's interest to do it and then use that to claim the moral high ground when the next Tory PM refuses to call an election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Ah the line is wait for the enquiry.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Hugely symbolic on so many levels. The one I like the best is that Bury South has a large Jewish community. The pain Corbyn caused there must have been immense. Wakeford - who is co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on British Jews - would never dared have moved if he felt Labour had not made substantial progress in tackling its anti-Semitism problem.

    Hugely symbolic in that SKS is happy to sit with Tories
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    A question I asked years ago:

    If you send a letter to Brady (not old lady...), can you recall it if you want? I.e. send in a letter contradicting it.

    If not, do letters have a lifetime? If I was an MP and sent it in two years ago, does it still count?

    Yes, it counts until you retract it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    edited January 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Polruan said:

    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Roughly the same time as the immediate general election that Johnson's successor will obviously feel obliged to call in order to the decent thing and ensure that their mandate is supported by the electorate at large.
    I don't understand why you wouldn't call a by-election. Surely you want the publicity of saying "look, I'm giving the people the chance to validate my decision, etc. etc."
    Right now it’s probably be a safe bet, as well

    But it might dicourage les autres
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    If I was a Tory MP, I would not boo Wakeford, or denigrate him (publicly, at least). I'd just go for regret: he's a good man, and was a good colleague, but he's made the wrong decision.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    TimS said:

    This is great for Starmer, not so much because it weakens an already weak government, but because it sends a very powerful signal that Labour is no longer under the control of the loony left, and is once again a safe bet for wavering centrist types to vote for. It's hard to imagine a defection like this under Corbyn.

    Yes, I remember many voices saying Shaun Woodward's 1999 defection was bad for Labour as it showed that they weren't true socialists. Of course, if anything it had the opposite effect, showing that Labour had changed and could attract centrists.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    No by election, straight defection.
    This is very wrong. I am a centrist but the Kippers were willing to put their change of allegiance to the voters. Centrist MPs are too elitist to let their constituents have their say. Pure cowardice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590

    Hugely symbolic on so many levels. The one I like the best is that Bury South has a large Jewish community. The pain Corbyn caused there must have been immense. Wakeford - who is co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on British Jews - would never dared have moved if he felt Labour had not made substantial progress in tackling its anti-Semitism problem.

    Hugely symbolic in that SKS is happy to sit with Tories
    Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    Boris is doing really really well so far.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,287
    The Tories in Bury South clearly did a useless job of selecting a candidate before the last election.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    IanB2 said:

    Lol, Johnson really does not have a grip on his party at all. The whole thing looks absolutely shambolic

    Their heavy handed threats to try and get loyalty has backfired
    I’m looking at Johnson now at PMQs, with his shaggy, bowl cut hair and ill fitting suit and I’m wondering how he inspires loyalty, perhaps HFUYD can tell us?

    Starmer has his mojo back at PMQs
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Good SKS opening remarks
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    Killer line by Starmer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    Starmers asking his same first question anyway
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    Polruan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Polruan said:

    tlg86 said:

    When will the by-election be?

    Roughly the same time as the immediate general election that Johnson's successor will obviously feel obliged to call in order to the decent thing and ensure that their mandate is supported by the electorate at large.
    I don't understand why you wouldn't call a by-election. Surely you want the publicity of saying "look, I'm giving the people the chance to validate my decision, etc. etc."
    Yeah, to be fair in this case, where I'm sure he'd win, it would be a nice bit of publicity - but I'm not sure either party would like to set the precedent that a fresh mandate is required. That said, maybe it would be in Labour's interest to do it and then use that to claim the moral high ground when the next Tory PM refuses to call an election.
    The last sentence - a by-election would be a bit risky for Labour (but not very, at the moment). Claiming the moral high ground might be a good step for them....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Starmer loving this.

    Absolutely great line: "Given the noise from the Tory backbench, I guess the chief whip has told them to bring their own booze."
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    My god - Starmer made a successful joke! That's a first!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    Blimey. Starmer on fine form. Wiping the floor with Johnson.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    boulay said:

    Regardless of Boris being crap I really don’t agree with MPs switching parties like this - really think morally they should trigger a by-election as in most cases they are elected as a member of their original party.

    If they believe that the other party is better for the country then they should have the courage of their convictions that their constituents would agree and vote for them in their new party.

    Would be more honest or fair to resign the whip and act as an Independent IMHO.

    It's a perfectly logical function of our FPTP system, where individual constituency MPs are elected to represent an area and are free to decide at any time whether or not to take a party whip. Other (more proportional) electoral systems are available.

    In pure parliamentary terms there is not much meaningful difference between being a rebel MP who routinely votes against their party whip (e.g. Corbyn, Skinner, or the Maastricht rebels) and taking a different party whip. Only when it comes to a vote of confidence, but with a majority as big as Boris has that's a moot point anyway.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    HYUFD said:

    Wakeford merely trying to save his seat. Even if the Tories scraped a narrow 1992 style re election Labour would gain his Bury South seat.

    Nothing more

    Puts me in mind of this:
    https://i.imgur.com/X7kKDcX.jpeg

    If I was better technically I'd embed it as an image!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Very punchy BoJo - MPs loving it not sure if the cheering is 54 voices short; doesn't sound like it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,794
    He has the same stain on this suit as on his grey one.

    One for the Sherlocks among us.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    If I was a Tory MP, I would not boo Wakeford, or denigrate him (publicly, at least). I'd just go for regret: he's a good man, and was a good colleague, but he's made the wrong decision.

    He's prolonged his career from 2023 to probably 2035 or so as a minimum.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    Starmer at his very, very, best. Clinically forensic.

    This is agony for Johnson.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    The PM daren’t go anywhere near answering these questions
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    And he's done it properly, crossing the floor at PMQs. Nice to see a return to the great traditions.

    And wearing a Union Jack face mask in case anyone thinks he’s unpatriotic.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited January 2022
    Interesting to look at Christian Wakeford's website: https://www.christianwakeford.org.uk/

    Other than it having a blue theme I could not see one mention of him being a Conservative. I'm guessing he was fairly soft to begin with.

    Changing his website to Labour will only need a quick update to his CSS to switch from blue to red.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    edited January 2022
    This was quite amusing in the BBC coverage.
    ...One cabinet minister blamed Covid for the behaviour of the new intake. This minister said that Covid restrictions, which have kept many MPs away from Westminster for large chunks of the last two years, meant they had not been properly “socialised”....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited January 2022
    IanB2 said:

    The PM daren’t go anywhere near answering these questions

    No PM ever goes anywhere near answering the LOTO's questions at PMQs.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Eabhal said:

    He has the same stain on this suit as on his grey one.

    One for the Sherlocks among us.

    Posseting
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    Starmer pointing out that Johnson is effectively accusing his own staff of lying
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wowsers.

    Boris Johnson partygate crisis: Poll gives Labour 32-point lead in London

    Exclusive: Eight Tory MPs could lose their seats in London if bombshell poll is replicated at next General Election


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/yougov-poll-labour-lead-london-boris-johnson-party-downing-st-plan-b-b977489.html

    Not that surprising given London, especially Inner London, was Remain central. The only reason most Tory MPs in Remain seats in London in 2019 held their seats was to keep out Corbyn, wealthy Remainers see Starmer as much less of a threat.

    Tories doing a bit better in Outer London though were a few areas like Hillingdon, Bexley and Havering voted Leave on 25% than Inner London, where every borough voted Remain and the Tories are on just 18%. That suggests the Tories could not only lose Wandsworth and Barnet in May but even lose Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea on a really bad night
    Last Starmer interview I read said that there was no question of Rejoining in his mind. We were OUT, end of.

    What that suggests is that, in his mind, apart from a few committed Europeans like myself banging on about it, he doesn't expect the EU to be an issue at the next, and indeed next but one election.

    So whether an area was Leave or Remain in 2016 will be immaterial. The issue will be the Governments overall competence.
    For Remainers the best policy is to sit tight for a while. The economy is clearly on a lower growth path post-Brexit and people will increasingly notice. Wait for about five years and there will be a clear majority for rejoin, or at least for EEA membership. That's the time to organise a vote to make it happen. In the meantime, just sit back and let Brexit fail on its own. Don't create a stabbed in the back myth for Brexiteers by hastening its end.
    Yes, pretty soon we will see that the lying bunch of chancers weren't suddenly competent at trade and foreign policy, but screwed that up too.

    Lib Dems will push for SM membership, but not Rejoin in the short term. The SNP, PC and SF will be for their nations to Rejoin as independent states.

    Ultimately the biggest obstacle to Rejoin will be the break up of the UK. Without Scotland and NI the hurdle to Rejoin gets a lot higher.
    Or being completely surrounded by EU states may change the calculation for a lot of people.
    Hmm. Strange definition of completely surrounded given that our largest border by far will continue to be with the sea. And being completely surrounded by EU countries doesn't seem to have made the Swiss more pro-EU. Quite the reverse in fact.
    Unless you are a very strong swimmer the sea border thing is not really relevant. Spain's longest border is also with the sea, ditto Italy's. Unlike those countries, you won't easily be able to leave the rUK without entering EU waters or airspace unless you take a very narrow corridor over Cornwall. The landlocked position of Switzerland is ameliorated by the fact it is in the Schengen area. That is an element of EU integration we didn't even subscribe to when we were in, so its absence from the EU has no practical day-to-day effects.
    I had assumed that since you were talking about changing public opinion you were talking psychologically not practically. And unless you believe the EU would decide to block all access except that Cornish corridor - which would be an 'interesting' claim then it makes not one bit of difference who owns those waters.
    Bit of a straw man there - there are many any varied administrative hassles up to and not necessarily including "blocking access". The practical then translates into the psychological. The waters don't matter, unless you are a fisherman, it's what happens when you get to the other side of them that matters. And in the case of Ireland who will have no desire nor need to stay in the CTA post unification, and Scotland, who will want to reorientate towards the EU, that hassle will involve having to pay for the EU equivalent of ESTA.

    It's academic and I've no desire to re-run these arguments. I've been content to sit back and watch the whole fiasco fail from the 2019 election on and I should stick to that policy. It's working so far.
    There are huge numbers of Irish people living and working in Britain. I don't see the Irish government wanting to walk away from the CTA post-unification - and I'd imagine ending it would do a lot to alienate those who would prefer Union with London to Union with Dublin.

    I'm confident the CTA will continue for at least another century.
    Once Irish unification happens there will be no going back to union with London. Those with British passports can continue to move freely. But there would be no reason to maintain special privileges for the Irish. Especially while they free ride on our defence umbrella and leech off our taxation base with their dodgy tax regime. If they want to continue to get the benefits of living and voting in Britain, they can meet the earning threshold and swear allegiance to HMQ.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Johnson blathering his way around. Totally drowning.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Starmer pissing himself laughing
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    AlistairM said:

    Interesting to look at Christian Wakeford's website: https://www.christianwakeford.org.uk/

    Other than it having a blue theme I could not see one mention of him being a Conservative. I'm guessing he was fairly soft to begin with.

    Changing his website to Labour will only need a quick update to his CSS to switch from blue to red.

    I suspect it may have been trimmed quite recently?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Forensic.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    It's over isn't it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    SKS in danger of enjoying himself too much. Laughing and snorting to himself and the audience. Either this is (literally) deadly serious (ref: HMQ) or it is not. SKS is slightly in no mans land.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    He's like a broken record. "wait for Gray, wait for Gray"
This discussion has been closed.