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Tory MP defects to Labour – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Scott_xP said:

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    That's not a mistake...
    The longer they can string the Bozzmeister along for, the more votes the Conservatives lose.

    I do think Starmer and Labour are missing a trick, and it is something they can use Wakeford for. Castigate the entire party for keeping the clown on as PM, when he is clearly unfit for the role.

    Wakeford and Davis are not the big wins for Johnson some on here are selling.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Foxy said:

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    Sir Keir is fully aware of Gary Neville's views on covid restrictions, has spoken to him at length about them, and raised the fact that they debated the matter as a positive during his, Keir's, recent appearance on the Nick Ferrari show. He said he preferred to be challenged by colleagues than have their sycophantic agreement.

    As you clearly can't be bothered to check the basic contentions in your posts before publishing them, I'm not sure it's worthwhile reading the rest of your mutterings!
    Neville also has quite a good track record on Labour issues, not least being shop steward.
    Indeed – and the fact that we now have a high-profile vocal opponent of restrictionism in Labour will be seen as major positive for the many millions of lefties who oppose restrictions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833


    It is an absolute disgrace a man with this voting record is happily seated behind Starmer and welcomed in to todays Labour Party

    He's been a loyalist, and anyone who normally votes with their party has some uncomfortable moments (said he with some feeling), but if they didn't usually do that party government would collapse.

    Anyway, haven't you said you plan to vote Tory yourself in protest against Starmer's centrism?
    And he will find that the Labour whips are just as controlling and venal and unscrupulous as are the Tory whips.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400

    Farooq said:

    In a bold political development, Boris Johnson has accidentally set himself on fire and fallen down a dried-up well. Join us at 6 where we will be joined by Dan Hodges to discuss whether Starmer can survive this fresh blow to his leadership.

    :D
    But that is a blow for Starmer. Sunak is going to make mincemeat of him on todays performance.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    So. You're calling today a bad day for Starmer?
    • A Tory MP defecting to Labour is bad for Labour

    • David Davis knifing Boris is bad for Labour

    • Starmer brimming with confidence and being funny at PMQs is bad for Labour


    Only from the PB Tories.


    Only on PB.


    (With credit to @tim)
    I don't think any PB Tory has said any of those things. Some on the left, however...
    Er... paging Big G!!!
    He's already responded to dixiedean's comment. He hasn't said any of those three things.
    LOL. I refer you to his post at 1326hrs.
  • Farooq said:

    In a bold political development, Boris Johnson has accidentally set himself on fire and fallen down a dried-up well. Join us at 6 where we will be joined by Dan Hodges to discuss whether Starmer can survive this fresh blow to his leadership.

    Dan: It's an absolute disgrace that SKS refuses to state whether or not he will piss on him to put out the fire.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,893
    IshmaelZ said:

    Davey calls for BJ to go. This is turning into pmqs by other means.

    He did that a week ago.....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    MrEd said:

    DougSeal said:

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    Exactly my post pmqs comments
    Not a mistake. They want Johnson to stay. The longer he stays the better it is for Labour. They want to fight him at the next election if at all possible. The sooner he goes the quicker someone else comes in and this blows over. They want this to run and run and run.
    Wasn't this the same sort of reason as to when Labour won Batley and Spen i.e. it's actually good news for the Conservatives because it meant Starmer remained as leader?

    Things turn. BJ probably is finished but then we said the same things about Starmer a year back. If there is one thing it generally has been wrong to do is to write off Johnson.
    Fair point but I think the situation Johnson is in is of a different order. People were (are?) indifferent regarding Starmer on the whole. People are developing a visceral hatred of Johnson
  • Leon said:


    He is an entertainer, and we will miss the entertainment.

    Being PM is not about "entertainment", it's about good governance (or at least it should be!).

    I for one won't be missing him...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Farooq said:

    In a bold political development, Boris Johnson has accidentally set himself on fire and fallen down a dried-up well. Join us at 6 where we will be joined by Dan Hodges to discuss whether Starmer can survive this fresh blow to his leadership.

    :D
    But that is a blow for Starmer. Sunak is going to make mincemeat of him on todays performance.
    Of course, it's clearly a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrible day for Sir Keir all round.

    I know this because I read it, right here on PB!
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    You are. I'm not.

    The worst PM of my lifetime. Totally unsuited for this crisis. Actually unsuited for any office. A chaotic, appalling, lying, opportunistic, thoroughly nasty piece of work who threw Paterson under the bus and habitually shafts people.

    If he's the sort of person you like, Sean, then you're welcome to him. The rest of us will move on and look back on this as the most disastrous premiership of our lives.
    . And the focus on levelling-up was astute. .
    The focus on levelling up has been there since Cameron / Osborne's Northern Powerhouse endeavours and 'Red Wall' seats had been trending to the Tories long before Johnson.

    He did accelerate the process but the problem now is that his deliver has been so incompetent he will drive them back to Labour and make it twice as hard to win them back for any future leader.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    Nah.

    No-one in London wanted him back, either.
    I thought he was a great London Mayor. Less keen on his PM abilities.
    The truth is that he was a figurehead in London, while other people made sure the work of his mayoralty was done. Insofar as he impacted on anything, he wasted large amounts of time and money on pursuing his various lunatic schemes.

    He’d probably have made a reasonable President in a political system where the president is a figurehead and doesn’t have much real responsibility or work to do.

    Sadly for him, our parliamentary system doesn’t work like that, and places demands on the leader that his abilities and character are simply unable to fulfil.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Just been afk for a little bit. No VONC announced yet?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    edited January 2022
    DougSeal said:

    MrEd said:

    DougSeal said:

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    Exactly my post pmqs comments
    Not a mistake. They want Johnson to stay. The longer he stays the better it is for Labour. They want to fight him at the next election if at all possible. The sooner he goes the quicker someone else comes in and this blows over. They want this to run and run and run.
    Wasn't this the same sort of reason as to when Labour won Batley and Spen i.e. it's actually good news for the Conservatives because it meant Starmer remained as leader?

    Things turn. BJ probably is finished but then we said the same things about Starmer a year back. If there is one thing it generally has been wrong to do is to write off Johnson.
    Fair point but I think the situation Johnson is in is of a different order. People were (are?) indifferent regarding Starmer on the whole. People are developing a visceral hatred of Johnson
    Technical point: New people are developing a visceral hatred of Johnson
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    So. You're calling today a bad day for Starmer?
    • A Tory MP defecting to Labour is bad for Labour

    • David Davis knifing Boris is bad for Labour

    • Starmer brimming with confidence and being funny at PMQs is bad for Labour


    Only from the PB Tories.


    Only on PB.


    (With credit to @tim)
    I don't think any PB Tory has said any of those things. Some on the left, however...
    Er... paging Big G!!!
    He's already responded to dixiedean's comment. He hasn't said any of those three things.
    LOL. I refer you to his post at 1326hrs.
    And I refer you to his reply to Dixiedean. Anyway, he didn't even mention David Davis in that comment.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    So. You're calling today a bad day for Starmer?
    No I did not say that

    It is just I do not rate him, and do you disagree with the points I have made


    Starmer is mediocre, but Boris is self-destructing

    Yes but the longer Johnson stays in place the more he makes Starmer look impressive in comparison and the more difficult it will be for the new Tory leader to put Starmer back in the shade.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited January 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    David Davis's by-election under Cameron was over ID cards. He's generally been strong on civil liberties. He made a good speech in Parliament recently about the dreadful clause 9 in the Nationality and Borders Bill.

    Re this from @Burgessian (fpt)
    "Funnily enough, I think that Boris's focus on Levelling-Up was a huge opportunity for the Tories to consolidate their position following the Brexit breakthrough. Whoever succeeds him needs to double-down on that, don a hard-hat, and get themselves to as many building sites in the North as possible. The success of Ben Houchen (Tees Valley Mayor) and the Hartlepool by-election are indications of how this could play out if the Tories resist the temptation to revert to type. And, let's face it, a less-than-scintillating London lawyer-type like Keir Starmer is not terribly well-placed to counter it."

    I agree. I don't see Sunak or Truss as the leaders to do it, though. It's not just building sites which are needed - it's a range of measures: opportunities, education, housing, transport etc. And Sunak has just binned some of the transport proposals.

    There is a fault line in the coalition the Tories built in 2019. Boris might have been able to bridge it. I don't see anyone else atm who can. And I just see complacency from Labour - "coming home" indeed, as if voters belong to a party as of right. I find something really grating about such an approach. It is fundamentally contemptuous of voters.

    Meanwhile all this ghastly legislation will keep being quietly put on the statute book, voted for by all the MPs now putting the boot into Boris. And we're supposed to be pleased with them for finally doing just that - if they do. No thanks.

    From a betting perspective, this is a key point - the current frontrunners (and also extending to the second tier such as Mourdant) are not the sorts of leaders who will be able to keep the RW voters. They are classic, Home Counties Tories who might save the Cons some seats in the South that might be lost to the LDs but nothing else.

    The value bets come from working out which potential candidates would have appeal to RW Tory MPs worried about their seats. I've suggested McVey (ticks RW / ERG / anti-restrictions) but, if you don't like that, look at those possible candidates who are going to appeal to those types of MPs, especially as - unlike many of their traditional Tory MP colleagues - have gained a substantial increase in salary from becoming an MP and therefore don't have nice jobs to go back to.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    edited January 2022
    OldBasing said:

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    All most voters will hear from the news is; 'Tory MP defects to Labour' and 'Tory MP tells Boris to resign.' Starmer has nothing to worry about from today's performance.
    Its good because it makes Labour, on fundamental terms, seem popular and cool
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    Nah.

    No-one in London wanted him back, either.
    I thought he was a great London Mayor. Less keen on his PM abilities.
    The truth is that he was a figurehead in London, while other people made sure the work of his mayoralty was done. Insofar as he impacted on anything, he wasted large amounts of time and money on pursuing his various lunatic schemes.

    He’d probably have made a reasonable President in a political system where the president is a figurehead and doesn’t have much real responsibility or work to do.

    Sadly for him, our parliamentary system doesn’t work like that, and places demands on the leader that his abilities and character are simply unable to fulfil.
    Plus of course. He put in competent people to do the job required in London.
    As PM he appointed solely on the basis of ideological purity.
    This is a long way from being all his fault. Apart from the appointments of course.
  • DougSeal said:

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    Exactly my post pmqs comments
    Not a mistake. They want Johnson to stay. The longer he stays the better it is for Labour. They want to fight him at the next election if at all possible. The sooner he goes the quicker someone else comes in and this blows over. They want this to run and run and run.
    Labour should be careful what they wish for. If Boris stays in place the media will soon get bored with him and will start seeking out other victims. This happened with Dave - people got fed up kicking Gordon around and so put Dave under the microscope. Suddenly Labour were in the position to make a comeback with the 'insurgent' election. Boris would love nothing better than having a crack at Labour as the underdog. Labour need to make the kill then move on swiftly to Rishi.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    DougSeal said:

    MrEd said:

    DougSeal said:

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    Exactly my post pmqs comments
    Not a mistake. They want Johnson to stay. The longer he stays the better it is for Labour. They want to fight him at the next election if at all possible. The sooner he goes the quicker someone else comes in and this blows over. They want this to run and run and run.
    Wasn't this the same sort of reason as to when Labour won Batley and Spen i.e. it's actually good news for the Conservatives because it meant Starmer remained as leader?

    Things turn. BJ probably is finished but then we said the same things about Starmer a year back. If there is one thing it generally has been wrong to do is to write off Johnson.
    Fair point but I think the situation Johnson is in is of a different order. People were (are?) indifferent regarding Starmer on the whole. People are developing a visceral hatred of Johnson
    I'm not sure it is necessarily hatred - sure for the remainer types who always hated BJ for Brexit this is Heaven (funny how Beth Rigby's lockdown transgressions got forgotten in the praise for her interview...) For a lot of voters, it just reinforces their view of politicians generally.

    The restrictions are off and, in a few months the UK is advancing whilst other countries are in the quagmire, voters may be prepared to stick with him. Unlikely but...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Nigelb said:
    Just because I look white and come from Yorkshire doesn’t mean I’m racist- but only time will tell if the players listen to him.

    My own take is dressing rooms can’t be sweetness and light all the time if they want to be successful, telling it as is is part of camaraderie and there also needs to be noise and fun and high morale to take that out on the pitch. So I am not expecting Yorkshire to be successful next season because the dressing room won’t be functioning as I described to be successful. It will be too quiet and watchful.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    MrEd said:

    Cyclefree said:

    David Davis's by-election under Cameron was over ID cards. He's generally been strong on civil liberties. He made a good speech in Parliament recently about the dreadful clause 9 in the Nationality and Borders Bill.

    Re this from @Burgessian (fpt)
    "Funnily enough, I think that Boris's focus on Levelling-Up was a huge opportunity for the Tories to consolidate their position following the Brexit breakthrough. Whoever succeeds him needs to double-down on that, don a hard-hat, and get themselves to as many building sites in the North as possible. The success of Ben Houchen (Tees Valley Mayor) and the Hartlepool by-election are indications of how this could play out if the Tories resist the temptation to revert to type. And, let's face it, a less-than-scintillating London lawyer-type like Keir Starmer is not terribly well-placed to counter it."

    I agree. I don't see Sunak or Truss as the leaders to do it, though. It's not just building sites which are needed - it's a range of measures: opportunities, education, housing, transport etc. And Sunak has just binned some of the transport proposals.

    There is a fault line in the coalition the Tories built in 2019. Boris might have been able to bridge it. I don't see anyone else atm who can. And I just see complacency from Labour - "coming home" indeed, as if voters belong to a party as of right. I find something really grating about such an approach. It is fundamentally contemptuous of voters.

    Meanwhile all this ghastly legislation will keep being quietly put on the statute book, voted for by all the MPs now putting the boot into Boris. And we're supposed to be pleased with them for finally doing just that - if they do. No thanks.

    From a betting perspective, this is a key point - the current frontrunners (and also extending to the second tier such as Mourdant) are not the sorts of leaders who will be able to keep the RW voters. They are classic, Home Counties Tories who might save the Cons some seats in the South that might be lost to the LDs but nothing else.

    The value bets come from working out which potential candidates would have appeal to RW Tory MPs worried about their seats. I've suggested McVey (ticks RW / ERG / anti-restrictions) but, if you don't like that, look at those possible candidates who are going to appeal to those types of MPs, especially as - unlike many of their traditional Tory MP colleagues - have gained a substantial increase in salary from becoming an MP and therefore don't have nice jobs to go back to.
    What the hell was Johnson if not a "classic, Home Counties Tory"? If he could appeal to Red Wall former Labour voters, then, in theory at least, any of the current front runners could (also note that Sunak's seat is very far from the Home Counties, and Mordaunt's is in Portsmouth).

    If the Red Wall appeal was something unique to Johnson's personality, then none of the (pre-19 entry) Tory MPs have a hope, and it's not worth wasting time even trying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Inflation = 5.4%, highest since 1992.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60050699

    How much did it shoot up by this time?

    Where’s @Eek?

    minuscule uptick in inflation (making highest since headlines look true but misleading the actual story).

    Is this business media 1 Eek 0?
    The only thing misleading about the headline inflation rate is that it probably understates the effect on those on average earnings.

    5.4% year on year inflation is in no way minuscule.
    How much did it leap up by?

    I reported Business and Financial media now convinced inflation is going to be just a blip not big player in credit crunch. Eek disagreed. Do I add you to list of disagreeing?
    "Leap up" is your phrase, not mine or @eek 's , so you tell me.
    The fact remains that the current rate is over double the average rate of inflation for nearly three decades.

    In return, how do you define 'blip', and how long will it last ?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622
    edited January 2022

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    You are. I'm not.

    The worst PM of my lifetime. Totally unsuited for this crisis. Actually unsuited for any office. A chaotic, appalling, lying, opportunistic, thoroughly nasty piece of work who threw Paterson under the bus and habitually shafts people.

    If he's the sort of person you like, Sean, then you're welcome to him. The rest of us will move on and look back on this as the most disastrous premiership of our lives.
    Not disastrous at all. He did break the Brexit logjam, and he did make some pretty good calls on Covid. And the focus on levelling-up was astute. He will go down as a consequential PM who committed hari-kiri in a most bizarre way. A brief blazing meteor of a premiership.

    And, Leon is right, we will miss such an entertainer in high office.
    I think Boris was a fit for the times.

    Brexit needed someone not tied down by detail. That's why May failed. Yes, detail matters, but the principle mattered more. Some of the problems we've been left with were utterly predictable, but many of the problems that were predicted haven't happened. Trying to fix them all in advance would have been a waste of time.

    Covid needed similar. We'd never have got to the current situation otherwise. Yes, there were mistakes in timing, but how quickly we forget that lockdowns were and are an unprecedented restriction of liberties. I'm glad we had someone in charge who really didn't like them and didn't obsess about numbers, even whilst we all sat here obsessing about numbers.

    The aftermath of both needs someone different. And sooner rather than later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    Nah.

    No-one in London wanted him back, either.
    I thought he was a great London Mayor. Less keen on his PM abilities.
    The truth is that he was a figurehead in London, while other people made sure the work of his mayoralty was done. Insofar as he impacted on anything, he wasted large amounts of time and money on pursuing his various lunatic schemes.

    He’d probably have made a reasonable President in a political system where the president is a figurehead and doesn’t have much real responsibility or work to do.

    Sadly for him, our parliamentary system doesn’t work like that, and places demands on the leader that his abilities and character are simply unable to fulfil.
    Plus of course. He put in competent people to do the job required in London.
    As PM he appointed solely on the basis of ideological purity...
    No, there was also a clear effort to appoint those who who were less than competent.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,246
    edited January 2022

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    Christian Wakeford MP should not be admitted to the Labour Party. He has consistently voted against the interests of working-class people; for the £20 universal credit cut, for the Nationality and Borders Bill and for the Police and Crime Bill, against almost every climate change measure.

    Labour is a Democratic Socialist Party CW like SKS is not
    I've got some sympathy with your view, although on balance it would be foolish to turn down defections.

    However, if he doesn't genuinely repent, would it be possible for Bury South CLP to deselect him in advance of the GE? That would be fun.
    What does this defection achieve? I guess it's a positive news story for Starmer in a week where he has plenty already. Zero significance in terms of parliamentary arithmetic.

    In the longer term, the risk is that Labour get saddled with a right-wing MP they don't want and who could easily walk back to the Tories at some point. But if the local party can support him, I certainly can.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.

    The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.

    One of the worst of his hobby horses.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    edited January 2022
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Inflation = 5.4%, highest since 1992.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60050699

    How much did it shoot up by this time?

    Where’s @Eek?

    minuscule uptick in inflation (making highest since headlines look true but misleading the actual story).

    Is this business media 1 Eek 0?
    Do you understand how inflation is calculated in the UK.

    What matters isn't what it does month on month but what it does year on year.

    And May / June's figure isn't going to be 5.4% it's going to be way higher.
    Well obviously I don’t.

    So how do you have the score line Financial Media (short blip) 0 - Eek (high inflation two years) 0 - very early stages of match?
  • I wonder how many of these PB Tories whinging about Wakeford's defection would think the same way if a Labour MP had defected TO the Tories :lol:

    Captain Darling: So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.

    General Melchett: Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!

    Captain Darling: And fortunately, one of our spies...

    General Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727

    I wonder how many of these PB Tories whinging about Wakeford's defection would think the same way if a Labour MP had defected TO the Tories :lol:

    Captain Darling: So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.

    General Melchett: Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!

    Captain Darling: And fortunately, one of our spies...

    General Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!

    Count me in.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    Exactly my post pmqs comments
    Not a mistake. They want Johnson to stay. The longer he stays the better it is for Labour. They want to fight him at the next election if at all possible. The sooner he goes the quicker someone else comes in and this blows over. They want this to run and run and run.
    Labour should be careful what they wish for. If Boris stays in place the media will soon get bored with him and will start seeking out other victims. This happened with Dave - people got fed up kicking Gordon around and so put Dave under the microscope. Suddenly Labour were in the position to make a comeback with the 'insurgent' election. Boris would love nothing better than having a crack at Labour as the underdog. Labour need to make the kill then move on swiftly to Rishi.
    The decision is not theirs. It's with Tory MPs. What were they going to do, tell Wakeford not to cross the floor? The same Monday Morning Quarterbacks would be saying that they missed an opportunity in failing to welcme him with open arms. There's only so much Labour can do.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    edited January 2022
    Today is one of those days where the weird inconsistencies seem to stand out

    Boris doesn't have anything to say about anything anymore. Clearly to his detriment he has been caught and cannot justify himself


    The Labour party has welcomed a chancer who I don't think anyone believes is doing more than saving his skin.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    I wonder how many of these PB Tories whinging about Wakeford's defection would think the same way if a Labour MP had defected TO the Tories :lol:

    Captain Darling: So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.

    General Melchett: Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!

    Captain Darling: And fortunately, one of our spies...

    General Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!

    Nein!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    Farooq said:

    In a bold political development, Boris Johnson has accidentally set himself on fire and fallen down a dried-up well. Join us at 6 where we will be joined by Dan Hodges to discuss whether Starmer can survive this fresh blow to his leadership.

    :D
    But that is a blow for Starmer. Sunak is going to make mincemeat of him on todays performance.
    Of course, it's clearly a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrible day for Sir Keir all round.

    I know this because I read it, right here on PB!
    You seem to be having a debate between you and a whole load of imaginery things nobody has actually said. Rather sad to watch - and a distraction from the main business - the destruction of a PM. Given your views you ought to be able to savour that without shouting down literally nobody!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    Nigelb said:
    Just because I look white and come from Yorkshire doesn’t mean I’m racist- but only time will tell if the players listen to him.

    My own take is dressing rooms can’t be sweetness and light all the time if they want to be successful, telling it as is is part of camaraderie and there also needs to be noise and fun and high morale to take that out on the pitch. So I am not expecting Yorkshire to be successful next season because the dressing room won’t be functioning as I described to be successful. It will be too quiet and watchful.
    A very smart pace bowler in his time, and highly experience international coach - what's not to like ?
  • Nads showing her class


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    Over on Twitter

    "The fact that a Tory MP , with a voting record Genghis Khan would be proud of, is at home in Keir Starmer’s Labour, says it all."
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    dixiedean said:

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    So. You're calling today a bad day for Starmer?
    No I did not say that

    It is just I do not rate him, and do you disagree with the points I have made
    Yes, your point about Gary Neville is third hand and wrong. Starmer was joking about Neville being in the Cabinet. You remember jokes? Read the transcript, if you doubt it.

    Mind you, you've reminded me of my favourite comment on here in days, when our redoubtable Epping friend pointed out that "Gary Neville is no Winston Churchill"Who'd have thought it?
    Neville used to play right back. Sounds like a Tory to me.

    Starmer has clearly got him confused with his brother.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    SO, PMQs. Did I miss anything?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Plenty has already been said about the defection.

    I do agree that if an MP changes party they should be required to hold a by-election. The ability not to do so stems from the fact that we elect people not parties (officially) but the voters think we elect parties not people.
    As a Bootle constituent, I am painfully aware that Adolf Hitler would win in my seat if he was running as the Labour party candidate.

    The only time I think they would not need a by-election would be if they merely had the whip withdrew, or if they were expelled from the party (ie, the 'defection' is the choice of the party rather than the individual) but in that case they should sit as an independent and not take any other party (or resign from the Commons).

    Lots of rules there, but the current setup doesn't work well at all.

    It also strikes me as pretty poor, that in the last ten years, of all the parties that had had defections and splits and floor crossings, the only party that asked its new MP to hold a by-election (twice) was UKIP.
    UKIP - upholding democracy in by-elections
    Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Change UK..... not so much.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,372

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Given the habits of many cyclists, I sometimes wish cyclists would walking a viable option for everyday transport ...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2022
    DavidL said:

    SO, PMQs. Did I miss anything?

    Not much. A hackneyed quote and a guy no-one has heard of choosing a different place to sit.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    Peak SKS has passed just before PMQs today


    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (-1)
    CON: 32% (-)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 14 - 16 Jan
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Inflation = 5.4%, highest since 1992.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60050699

    How much did it shoot up by this time?

    Where’s @Eek?

    minuscule uptick in inflation (making highest since headlines look true but misleading the actual story).

    Is this business media 1 Eek 0?
    The only thing misleading about the headline inflation rate is that it probably understates the effect on those on average earnings.

    5.4% year on year inflation is in no way minuscule.
    How much did it leap up by?

    I reported Business and Financial media now convinced inflation is going to be just a blip not big player in credit crunch. Eek disagreed. Do I add you to list of disagreeing?
    "Leap up" is your phrase, not mine or @eek 's , so you tell me.
    The fact remains that the current rate is over double the average rate of inflation for nearly three decades.

    In return, how do you define 'blip', and how long will it last ?
    Blip = a transient sharp movement up or down (as of a quantity commonly shown on a graph) relatively small or inconsequential within a larger context.

    Leap up = something much much larger than 0.3
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Great to see the Covid theatre nonsense coming to an end.

    End of self isolation for the positive by March, and possibly earlier too.

    I was called all sorts of names when I suggested that a month or two ago. Great to see it happening soon.

    Yes, because a month or two ago it would have been totally inappropriate.

    My wife calls me names if I suggest turning off the heating in February, but suddenly in May she's all for it.
    Nice try but I was saying that at some point next year (now this year) we should be looking to drop the measure and March is quite early this year relatively. This is coming faster than I expected. 👍

    The reaction of a lot of people here was that it would never be appropriate for the legal restriction on isolation for the positive to be dropped. Not that it should only be dropped in March instead.
    Nice try, but this is what you actually said:

    Rip off the bandage, have the virus burn through a vaccinated population and if anyone's unvaccinated then they can claim their Darwin Award on the way out.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3721174#Comment_3721174
    That's far from the only post I ever made and is not what I was referring to since self isolation wasn't even mentioned in that post or the one I was replying to.

    And I stand by that comment 100%.
    It’s not a thoughtful, caring comment.
    Not everyone can get vaccinated even if they want to.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833

    Today is one of those days where the weird inconsistencies seem to stand out

    Boris doesn't have anything to say about anything anymore. Clearly to his detriment he has been caught and cannot justify himself


    The Labour party h

    What a cliffhanger!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    You are. I'm not.

    The worst PM of my lifetime. Totally unsuited for this crisis. Actually unsuited for any office. A chaotic, appalling, lying, opportunistic, thoroughly nasty piece of work who threw Paterson under the bus and habitually shafts people.

    If he's the sort of person you like, Sean, then you're welcome to him. The rest of us will move on and look back on this as the most disastrous premiership of our lives.
    Not disastrous at all. He did break the Brexit logjam, and he did make some pretty good calls on Covid. And the focus on levelling-up was astute. He will go down as a consequential PM who committed hari-kiri in a most bizarre way. A brief blazing meteor of a premiership.

    And, Leon is right, we will miss such an entertainer in high office.
    I think Boris was a fit for the times.

    Brexit needed someone not tied down by detail. That's why May failed. Yes, detail matters, but the principle mattered more. Some of the problems we've been left with were utterly predictable, but many of the problems that were predicted haven't happened. Trying to fix them all in advance would have been a waste of time.

    Covid needed similar. We'd never have got to the current situation otherwise. Yes, there were mistakes in timing, but how quickly we forget that lockdowns were and are an unprecedented restriction of liberties. I'm glad we had someone in charge who really didn't like them and didn't obsess about numbers, even whilst we all sat here obsessing about numbers.

    The aftermath of both needs someone different. And sooner rather than later.
    I don't agree about what Brexit needed, but then I suppose I wouldn't would I. Assuming the goal was to deliver a successful Brexit deal, what it needed was someone with a proper eye for detail, but far better able to sell the necessary compromises than May was. Indeed in hindsight all it needed was May, but with the 2015 Cameron majority rather than the 2017 hung parliament.

    The fact there's been such a lack of attention to or interest in the detail is one of a number of reasons why Brexit has ended up the ill-tempered mess that it is, and why nobody is now able to articulate any tangible benefits apart from the simple fact of regaining sovereignty (which is enough for some, but not a quorum of public opinion). The other reason is that, Iraq war style, there just wasn't a clear vision or plan for what came after. Just topple Saddam/Brussels and the rest will follow.
  • DavidL said:

    SO, PMQs. Did I miss anything?

    Not much. A hackneyed quote and a guy no-one has heard of choosing a different place to sit.
    Oh, I forgot: Starmer making a half-decent joke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    Over on Twitter

    "The fact that a Tory MP , with a voting record Genghis Khan would be proud of, is at home in Keir Starmer’s Labour, says it all."

    Pretty sure the Great Khan would never have stooped to anything so humble as a vote.
  • OK, pop quiz, hotshots!

    Name me the last Labour MP to defect TO the Tories.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    'On yer bike' ?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    If Wakeford asked him, which he probably did, what's Starmo supposed to say: "Er no, not yet, can't it wait until next week?"

    In any case, I think the timing's great. If the ditherers and no-marks who keep threatening letters grow a pair, they'll send in the letters. If they don't, they won't. Not much Keir or anyone else on the Opposition benches can do about that.
    I don't think it is a coincidence that it is the small town and northern Tories going for Boris. They were at home in their very quiet constituencies during lockdown. I don't remember any great easing in public until at least the VE day celebrations. Boris has to be removed to cauterise the wound. I think that the Sue Gray report would hopefully identify any other candidate miscreants, and allow a field to be established.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Inflation = 5.4%, highest since 1992.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60050699

    How much did it shoot up by this time?

    Where’s @Eek?

    minuscule uptick in inflation (making highest since headlines look true but misleading the actual story).

    Is this business media 1 Eek 0?
    The only thing misleading about the headline inflation rate is that it probably understates the effect on those on average earnings.

    5.4% year on year inflation is in no way minuscule.
    How much did it leap up by?

    I reported Business and Financial media now convinced inflation is going to be just a blip not big player in credit crunch. Eek disagreed. Do I add you to list of disagreeing?
    "Leap up" is your phrase, not mine or @eek 's , so you tell me.
    The fact remains that the current rate is over double the average rate of inflation for nearly three decades.

    In return, how do you define 'blip', and how long will it last ?
    Blip = a transient sharp movement up or down (as of a quantity commonly shown on a graph) relatively small or inconsequential within a larger context.

    Leap up = something much much larger than 0.3
    Is inflation (globally) being driven by a lack of supply, or is that in better shape than last year?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    As I said earlier. Tactical mistake by Labour to do this today:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Sense amongst Tory MPs is Wakeford defection may have pushed the crisis into next week. “Think they’ll wait for Sue Gray now” one tells me.

    Exactly my post pmqs comments
    Not a mistake. They want Johnson to stay. The longer he stays the better it is for Labour. They want to fight him at the next election if at all possible. The sooner he goes the quicker someone else comes in and this blows over. They want this to run and run and run.
    Labour should be careful what they wish for. If Boris stays in place the media will soon get bored with him and will start seeking out other victims. This happened with Dave - people got fed up kicking Gordon around and so put Dave under the microscope. Suddenly Labour were in the position to make a comeback with the 'insurgent' election. Boris would love nothing better than having a crack at Labour as the underdog. Labour need to make the kill then move on swiftly to Rishi.
    The decision is not theirs. It's with Tory MPs. What were they going to do, tell Wakeford not to cross the floor? The same Monday Morning Quarterbacks would be saying that they missed an opportunity in failing to welcme him with open arms. There's only so much Labour can do.
    Absolutely right.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited January 2022
    Mortimer said:

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.

    The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.

    One of the worst of his hobby horses.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/219093/no-evidence-that-londons-cycle-superhighways/

    "A new analysis finds special London cycle lanes, which aim to boost commuting by bicycle, do not negatively impact traffic speed... the team has used advanced statistical models that incorporate multiple confounding factors to tease apart the impact of CSs [Cycle Superhighways] on congestion and discover whether they caused a change or not. They used data from before the CSs were implemented and afterwards, from 2007-2014, to reduce the complications from comparing different areas of London where other socio-economic factors can have an outsized impact on congestion.

    "They found that while CSs somewhat reduced traffic flow – the number of vehicles passing by in a certain time frame – they improved traffic speed, meaning overall there was little impact on congestion."

    They may have "created widespread anger", I'll grant you that, but that isn't a good basis for policy-making. Put simply, gammons gonna gammon. What they haven't done, in the round, is significantly worsened congestion.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,165

    I wonder how many of these PB Tories whinging about Wakeford's defection would think the same way if a Labour MP had defected TO the Tories :lol:

    Captain Darling: So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.

    General Melchett: Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!

    Captain Darling: And fortunately, one of our spies...

    General Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!

    Well I'm not a PB Tory and I'm whinging about it. Makes no difference from which party to which.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    edited January 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Inflation = 5.4%, highest since 1992.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60050699

    How much did it shoot up by this time?

    Where’s @Eek?

    minuscule uptick in inflation (making highest since headlines look true but misleading the actual story).

    Is this business media 1 Eek 0?
    The only thing misleading about the headline inflation rate is that it probably understates the effect on those on average earnings.

    5.4% year on year inflation is in no way minuscule.
    How much did it leap up by?

    I reported Business and Financial media now convinced inflation is going to be just a blip not big player in credit crunch. Eek disagreed. Do I add you to list of disagreeing?
    "Leap up" is your phrase, not mine or @eek 's , so you tell me.
    The fact remains that the current rate is over double the average rate of inflation for nearly three decades.

    In return, how do you define 'blip', and how long will it last ?
    Blip = a transient sharp movement up or down (as of a quantity commonly shown on a graph) relatively small or inconsequential within a larger context.

    Leap up = something much much larger than 0.3
    The claim that inflation over 5% is 'inconsequential' is very silly.
    And 0.3% is over ten percent of the average rate for the past couple of decades.

    It's possible that deflationary forces (competition in world shipping markets; a rebound in US oil & gas production; supply chains getting rebuilt, etc) will remedy things over the next year or so, but it's definitely not a given.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645

    DavidL said:

    SO, PMQs. Did I miss anything?

    Not much. A hackneyed quote and a guy no-one has heard of choosing a different place to sit.
    Oh, I forgot: Starmer making a half-decent joke.
    And looking incredibly smug
  • Plenty has already been said about the defection.

    I do agree that if an MP changes party they should be required to hold a by-election. The ability not to do so stems from the fact that we elect people not parties (officially) but the voters think we elect parties not people.
    As a Bootle constituent, I am painfully aware that Adolf Hitler would win in my seat if he was running as the Labour party candidate.

    The only time I think they would not need a by-election would be if they merely had the whip withdrew, or if they were expelled from the party (ie, the 'defection' is the choice of the party rather than the individual) but in that case they should sit as an independent and not take any other party (or resign from the Commons).

    Lots of rules there, but the current setup doesn't work well at all.

    It also strikes me as pretty poor, that in the last ten years, of all the parties that had had defections and splits and floor crossings, the only party that asked its new MP to hold a by-election (twice) was UKIP.
    UKIP - upholding democracy in by-elections
    Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Change UK..... not so much.

    Adolf wouldn't find it quite so easy to get the Labour nomination as he might have done two years ago.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited January 2022
    Just seen RPI is up at about 8%, so not far off £500/month interest for most new university graduates if the cap isn't renewed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645

    OK, pop quiz, hotshots!

    Name me the last Labour MP to defect TO the Tories.

    Sir Keir Starmer and the whole of his front bench

    Next
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Is Sir Graham's sack swelling yet and ready to disgorge its contents?

    If not, what are the rumblers waiting for?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    I thought Johnson’s position as leader became untenable as soon as Douglas Ross called for him to resign.

    You can’t claim to lead a party of unionism whilst losing the support of your Scottish arm
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    OK, pop quiz, hotshots!

    Name me the last Labour MP to defect TO the Tories.

    Sir Keir Starmer and the whole of his front bench

    Next
    Never change.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,143
    Why is Bury South called Bury South? It isn't Bury at all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    Mortimer said:

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.

    The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.

    One of the worst of his hobby horses.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/219093/no-evidence-that-londons-cycle-superhighways/

    "A new analysis finds special London cycle lanes, which aim to boost commuting by bicycle, do not negatively impact traffic speed... the team has used advanced statistical models that incorporate multiple confounding factors to tease apart the impact of CSs [Cycle Superhighways] on congestion and discover whether they caused a change or not. They used data from before the CSs were implemented and afterwards, from 2007-2014, to reduce the complications from comparing different areas of London where other socio-economic factors can have an outsized impact on congestion.

    "They found that while CSs somewhat reduced traffic flow – the number of vehicles passing by in a certain time frame – they improved traffic speed, meaning overall there was little impact on congestion."

    They may have "created widespread anger", I'll grant you that, but that isn't a good basis for policy-making. Put simply, gammons gonna gammon. What they haven't done, in the round, is significantly worsened congestion.
    The country isn't London. Perhaps throw less insults around and think a little more before you reply?

    This data is 2007-2014; the schemes that were sneakily put in place during Covid include some crackers ones in Dorset and BCP.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,892

    Today is one of those days where the weird inconsistencies seem to stand out

    Boris doesn't have anything to say about anything anymore. Clearly to his detriment he has been caught and cannot justify himself

    Boris would be taken to pieces if questioned under oath. He has no answers, because any answer he could now give will drop him in it because of his previous statements. He has lied, everybody knows it, he has no way out other than to say nothing about the parties and blather away with the tractor stats.

    I find it inconceivable that Boris will be cleared by the inquiry, such a conclusion would stretch crediblity beyond any normal breaking point. If Boris is cleared I will simply assume that the inquiry was nobbled from the start.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    I thought Johnson’s position as leader became untenable as soon as Douglas Ross called for him to resign.

    You can’t claim to lead a party of unionism whilst losing the support of your Scottish arm

    Hmm, Labour tried that too. (Though the LDs had a rather different problem.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just because I look white and come from Yorkshire doesn’t mean I’m racist- but only time will tell if the players listen to him.

    My own take is dressing rooms can’t be sweetness and light all the time if they want to be successful, telling it as is is part of camaraderie and there also needs to be noise and fun and high morale to take that out on the pitch. So I am not expecting Yorkshire to be successful next season because the dressing room won’t be functioning as I described to be successful. It will be too quiet and watchful.
    A very smart pace bowler in his time, and highly experience international coach - what's not to like ?
    Cunning question because I am not criticising the calibre of coach, just the situation he is appointed into meaning we can’t be sure he will be listened to so a success or flop or not. Situation means it’s going to be hard for him is something you should have added to your original post.

    My cunning question to you, do you think the dressing room will quickly find morale and X factor of it can’t be sweetness and light all the time in a successful dressing room, next season?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,537

    Mortimer said:

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.

    The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.

    One of the worst of his hobby horses.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/219093/no-evidence-that-londons-cycle-superhighways/

    "A new analysis finds special London cycle lanes, which aim to boost commuting by bicycle, do not negatively impact traffic speed... the team has used advanced statistical models that incorporate multiple confounding factors to tease apart the impact of CSs [Cycle Superhighways] on congestion and discover whether they caused a change or not. They used data from before the CSs were implemented and afterwards, from 2007-2014, to reduce the complications from comparing different areas of London where other socio-economic factors can have an outsized impact on congestion.

    "They found that while CSs somewhat reduced traffic flow – the number of vehicles passing by in a certain time frame – they improved traffic speed, meaning overall there was little impact on congestion."

    They may have "created widespread anger", I'll grant you that, but that isn't a good basis for policy-making. Put simply, gammons gonna gammon. What they haven't done, in the round, is significantly worsened congestion.
    This is obvious. The lack of cycle lanes on my way to work make me a serious source of congestion, despite whizzing along at 25kph.

    The new cycle lanes being put in on a major arterial route near me weave around lampposts, bus stops, the entrance to a major theatre and even bins, making you do near 90 degree turns several times in a few hundred metres.

    I shall continue to use the road.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?

    And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    IanB2 said:

    I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”

    It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908
    edited January 2022

    Nads showing her class


    Yet she's completely right. See @kinabalu 's sneering remark below
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    .

    Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?

    And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.

    Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just because I look white and come from Yorkshire doesn’t mean I’m racist- but only time will tell if the players listen to him.

    My own take is dressing rooms can’t be sweetness and light all the time if they want to be successful, telling it as is is part of camaraderie and there also needs to be noise and fun and high morale to take that out on the pitch. So I am not expecting Yorkshire to be successful next season because the dressing room won’t be functioning as I described to be successful. It will be too quiet and watchful.
    A very smart pace bowler in his time, and highly experience international coach - what's not to like ?
    Cunning question because I am not criticising the calibre of coach, just the situation he is appointed into meaning we can’t be sure he will be listened to so a success or flop or not. Situation means it’s going to be hard for him is something you should have added to your original post.

    My cunning question to you, do you think the dressing room will quickly find morale and X factor of it can’t be sweetness and light all the time in a successful dressing room, next season?
    I haven't a clue - but they either give up, or make the attempt at a fresh start.
    So far they seem to have opted for the latter.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,872

    OK, pop quiz, hotshots!

    Name me the last Labour MP to defect TO the Tories.

    Saun Woodward
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,422
    tlg86 said:

    Why is Bury South called Bury South? It isn't Bury at all.

    Because it's in the metropolitan borough of Bury.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    glw said:

    Today is one of those days where the weird inconsistencies seem to stand out

    Boris doesn't have anything to say about anything anymore. Clearly to his detriment he has been caught and cannot justify himself

    Boris would be taken to pieces if questioned under oath. He has no answers, because any answer he could now give will drop him in it because of his previous statements. He has lied, everybody knows it, he has no way out other than to say nothing about the parties and blather away with the tractor stats.

    I find it inconceivable that Boris will be cleared by the inquiry, such a conclusion would stretch crediblity beyond any normal breaking point. If Boris is cleared I will simply assume that the inquiry was nobbled from the start.
    He must think that he is going to be cleared to some extent.
    If the result of the enquiry was that he knew that it was a party and that he gave the go ahead for it then he will have to resign. He clearly does not think that this will happen
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,422

    OK, pop quiz, hotshots!

    Name me the last Labour MP to defect TO the Tories.

    The only one I know is Reg Prentice in the 1970s.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    We're gonna miss Boris. You read it here first

    You are. I'm not.

    The worst PM of my lifetime. Totally unsuited for this crisis. Actually unsuited for any office. A chaotic, appalling, lying, opportunistic, thoroughly nasty piece of work who threw Paterson under the bus and habitually shafts people.

    If he's the sort of person you like, Sean, then you're welcome to him. The rest of us will move on and look back on this as the most disastrous premiership of our lives.
    Not disastrous at all. He did break the Brexit logjam, and he did make some pretty good calls on Covid. And the focus on levelling-up was astute. He will go down as a consequential PM who committed hari-kiri in a most bizarre way. A brief blazing meteor of a premiership.

    And, Leon is right, we will miss such an entertainer in high office.
    I think Boris was a fit for the times.

    Brexit needed someone not tied down by detail. That's why May failed. Yes, detail matters, but the principle mattered more. Some of the problems we've been left with were utterly predictable, but many of the problems that were predicted haven't happened. Trying to fix them all in advance would have been a waste of time.

    Covid needed similar. We'd never have got to the current situation otherwise. Yes, there were mistakes in timing, but how quickly we forget that lockdowns were and are an unprecedented restriction of liberties. I'm glad we had someone in charge who really didn't like them and didn't obsess about numbers, even whilst we all sat here obsessing about numbers.

    The aftermath of both needs someone different. And sooner rather than later.
    I don't agree about what Brexit needed, but then I suppose I wouldn't would I. Assuming the goal was to deliver a successful Brexit deal, what it needed was someone with a proper eye for detail, but far better able to sell the necessary compromises than May was. Indeed in hindsight all it needed was May, but with the 2015 Cameron majority rather than the 2017 hung parliament.

    The fact there's been such a lack of attention to or interest in the detail is one of a number of reasons why Brexit has ended up the ill-tempered mess that it is, and why nobody is now able to articulate any tangible benefits apart from the simple fact of regaining sovereignty (which is enough for some, but not a quorum of public opinion). The other reason is that, Iraq war style, there just wasn't a clear vision or plan for what came after. Just topple Saddam/Brussels and the rest will follow.
    By the time of the leadership election (and the 2019 general election), the goal had become simply to get the UK out of the EU and sort out the details later, because the unreconstructed Remainers had spent the last two years (and more) in pure obstructionism mode.

    It would have been better had Cameron not resigned immediately and had led a rapprochement with the Hannanites who were always going to be quite happy with EEA - there would have been a majority for that in 2016/17. There might even be a majority for it again now!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”

    It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
    No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns

    https://unherd.com/2022/01/covid-could-still-save-boris/

    Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.

    The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.

    One of the worst of his hobby horses.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/219093/no-evidence-that-londons-cycle-superhighways/

    "A new analysis finds special London cycle lanes, which aim to boost commuting by bicycle, do not negatively impact traffic speed... the team has used advanced statistical models that incorporate multiple confounding factors to tease apart the impact of CSs [Cycle Superhighways] on congestion and discover whether they caused a change or not. They used data from before the CSs were implemented and afterwards, from 2007-2014, to reduce the complications from comparing different areas of London where other socio-economic factors can have an outsized impact on congestion.

    "They found that while CSs somewhat reduced traffic flow – the number of vehicles passing by in a certain time frame – they improved traffic speed, meaning overall there was little impact on congestion."

    They may have "created widespread anger", I'll grant you that, but that isn't a good basis for policy-making. Put simply, gammons gonna gammon. What they haven't done, in the round, is significantly worsened congestion.
    The country isn't London. Perhaps throw less insults around and think a little more before you reply?

    This data is 2007-2014; the schemes that were sneakily put in place during Covid include some crackers ones in Dorset and BCP.

    Wait, you mean Dorset, run by (checks notes) the Tories, and BCP, run by (checks notes) the Tories, didn't do a very good job of planning and implementing something? Shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    edited January 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Why is Bury South called Bury South? It isn't Bury at all.

    Now that's my kind of post!
    I guess because it is the south of Bury MBC.
    But Rochdale, Stockport, Salford, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan don't follow that principle.
    Bolton does. Oldham gets both the name of the MBC plus the other bits.
  • This is funny:

    Joe Pike @joepike

    Boris Johnson ally calls David Davis ‘inconsistent and irrelevant’. Claims his call for the PM to go was ‘badly timed’.

    ‘He is showing the same loyalty he showed to David Cameron and Theresa May’


    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1483792191101317122

    Does this 'ally' really expect people not to make the connection with the record of loyalty to Cameron and May of another prominent figure?

    When was Boris disloyal to Cameron?

    If you mean Brexit that was deemed by Cameron a matter of conscience. If "loyalty" was supposed to be expressed even on a conscience vote then presumably there were Brexiteers in 2016 putting misplaced loyalty to Cameron ahead of doing the right thing by the country?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.

    The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.

    One of the worst of his hobby horses.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/219093/no-evidence-that-londons-cycle-superhighways/

    "A new analysis finds special London cycle lanes, which aim to boost commuting by bicycle, do not negatively impact traffic speed... the team has used advanced statistical models that incorporate multiple confounding factors to tease apart the impact of CSs [Cycle Superhighways] on congestion and discover whether they caused a change or not. They used data from before the CSs were implemented and afterwards, from 2007-2014, to reduce the complications from comparing different areas of London where other socio-economic factors can have an outsized impact on congestion.

    "They found that while CSs somewhat reduced traffic flow – the number of vehicles passing by in a certain time frame – they improved traffic speed, meaning overall there was little impact on congestion."

    They may have "created widespread anger", I'll grant you that, but that isn't a good basis for policy-making. Put simply, gammons gonna gammon. What they haven't done, in the round, is significantly worsened congestion.
    The country isn't London. Perhaps throw less insults around and think a little more before you reply?

    This data is 2007-2014; the schemes that were sneakily put in place during Covid include some crackers ones in Dorset and BCP.

    Wait, you mean Dorset, run by (checks notes) the Tories, and BCP, run by (checks notes) the Tories, didn't do a very good job of planning and implementing something? Shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
    Try again. BCP covid ETRO schemes were almost exclusively implemented by a rag tag 'Unity alliance' of LDs, indies, Greens, Labour etc....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    Christian Wakeford MP supports the Borders Bill. He claimed asylum seekers fleeing war zones, risking their lives, before reaching the UK have a “shopping trolley as to what they want”.

    He’s a Tory who has been welcomed into SKS Labour.

    I am sure some of the stuff Bury South Labour has said about him will not be at all damaging in 2024
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908
    Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB

    The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?

    Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited January 2022
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'll miss cycling Boris. He genuinely has done good things to make cycling a viable option for everyday transport, more than any British politician before him.

    The rest of him can do one.

    Meanwhile making the roads miserable for everyone else - pedestrians and motorists alike.

    The cycle lanes have created widespread anger, often prioritising the middle class leisure cyclists over workers and public transport - including emergency and key workers.

    One of the worst of his hobby horses.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/219093/no-evidence-that-londons-cycle-superhighways/

    "A new analysis finds special London cycle lanes, which aim to boost commuting by bicycle, do not negatively impact traffic speed... the team has used advanced statistical models that incorporate multiple confounding factors to tease apart the impact of CSs [Cycle Superhighways] on congestion and discover whether they caused a change or not. They used data from before the CSs were implemented and afterwards, from 2007-2014, to reduce the complications from comparing different areas of London where other socio-economic factors can have an outsized impact on congestion.

    "They found that while CSs somewhat reduced traffic flow – the number of vehicles passing by in a certain time frame – they improved traffic speed, meaning overall there was little impact on congestion."

    They may have "created widespread anger", I'll grant you that, but that isn't a good basis for policy-making. Put simply, gammons gonna gammon. What they haven't done, in the round, is significantly worsened congestion.
    The country isn't London. Perhaps throw less insults around and think a little more before you reply?

    This data is 2007-2014; the schemes that were sneakily put in place during Covid include some crackers ones in Dorset and BCP.

    Yes, which is why I said "in the round". There have been good interventions and bad interventions, but there is no published evidence that "the cycle lanes" have consistently worsened congestion across Britain.

    You could certainly believe that they've "created widespread anger" if you spend your time BTL on local newspaper websites or Facebook, but in fact, YouGov national polling (2020) shows that 58% of people support installing cycle lanes on all main roads in urban areas, vs 20% oppose.

    Generally, those schemes that cleave most closely to the guidance set out by central Government (LTN 1/20) have been most effective. Those designed by local authority officers to their own prejudices, less so. I'm not familiar with the Dorset/BCP schemes but here in Oxfordshire, and certain other areas I visit, that's very much the case. And I can't blame Oxfordshire's failings on Boris, certainly not now it's being run by a centre-left coalition.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    RobD said:

    .

    Who remembers way, way back in Conference season when Johnson's reign as the working man's Prime Mister was going to be crowned by the defection of a whopping three RedWall Labour MPs?

    And yet, the defection of just one RedWall Tory to Labour is a Labour disaster.

    Has anyone actually said it is a disaster for Labour?
    Corbynista RedWall Boris fan BJO off the top of my head and a couple of others who I don't recall.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Whistling in the dark…..

    Tory MP Jonathan Gullis claims on @skynews that MPs are withdrawing letters from Sir Graham Brady

    But admitted on air to me he doesn’t know who those individuals are or how many there are and says he hasn’t spoken to any such individuals directly


    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1483808223857627143?s=21
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB

    The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?

    Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too

    As we have learned the constituency CLP can deselect. However I'd be surprised if discussions had not included the CLP.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    I liked the SNP intervention “Is the Prime Minister getting rid of the covid rules, simply because he doesn’t understand them?”

    It's actually what worries me - that it's being done because he's more frightened of the covid RG than covid.
    No, it's being done because the public have had enough of restrictions. See the deets here. Public opinion has swung massively against Covid rules and lockdowns

    https://unherd.com/2022/01/covid-could-still-save-boris/

    Incidentally, if Parkway Camden is anything to go by - I've just been for a haircut and shopping - masking is falling away fast already. People cannot be bothered. And now they know masks are finished anyhow? Get rid
    Welcome to PB
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    JonathanD said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    I would just like to comment on Starmer

    Today at pmqs he had all the ammunition and much more to near fatally wound Boris and while he made some good jokes his self satisfied demeanour and body language were maybe not a good look

    He welcomed Gary Neville into labour and made the extraordinary suggestion he could became a shadow minister which in itself is ridiculous without knowing Neville's views which ironically include being against all covid restrictions

    Today he had Wakeford sit immediately behind him and extolled his defection to labour, while Wakeford wore a union jack face mask and supports right wing conservative policies. No wonder some in labour are far from impressed

    In my opinion Starmer is trying to hard and is not receiving the best advice

    So. You're calling today a bad day for Starmer?
    No I did not say that

    It is just I do not rate him, and do you disagree with the points I have made


    Starmer is mediocre, but Boris is self-destructing

    Yes but the longer Johnson stays in place the more he makes Starmer look impressive in comparison and the more difficult it will be for the new Tory leader to put Starmer back in the shade.

    Is that really true?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Leon said:

    Question for PB politics geeks. OK the whole of PB

    The Tory MP who has defected to Labour. Is he guaranteed to be Labour's Bury South candidate in the next GE? Can any party guarantee that? I presume he's got some reassurance from the PLP but can they overrule the constituency?

    Because their must be Labour people in Bury who will deeply resent a Tory taking away their chance of being the local MP - quite a good chance in 2024, too

    He may even get a safer seat.

    When Shaun Woodward defected from the tories he was rewarded with a plum safe labour seat of St Helens South.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    GIN1138 said:

    I think David Davis has been pissed with Boris since he (Davis) resigned from Theresa's government and Boris resigned hours later and stole all the limelight ;)

    Plus he's a regular member of the 'awkward squad' of rebels on things like dropping international aid to 0.5 and much much more. Almost every rebellion has had his name in it, so I'm not remotely surprised he's put the letter in and wouldn't read too much into it.
    He has an interesting history. Famously threw away the Conservative leadership by making a terrible speech, resigned from Cameron Shadow Cabinet to force a by-election (can't remember what on), resigned as Brexit minister from May's cabinet. Also has cross-party friendships, notably with Alastair Campbell and Alex Salmond. Very much his own man. I think in calling for Boris to go he just felt he was acting in national interest and doesn't much care about personal repercussions.
    There is a very good chance this is his last parliament. He'll be 75 in May 2024 and he probably gives no flucks anymore. He can say what he wants and get away with it.
This discussion has been closed.