I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
He was putting out "feelers" to stay in power.
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible.
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
I still don't see the problem. He explored the possibility of staying on, and he waited until it was clear that was not possible before going. As I recall there was gameplaying by the LDs who did briefly meet with Lab, presumably as part of putting the pressure on the Tories.
Regardless, all I see in these accusations is that it while was an improbable path to staying on, the other side had not locked down a deal, and once they had Brown accepted that immediately. I just don't see what was so terrible about that.
Because incumbency matters. A lot. I think if you have nearly 50 seats more than the second highest party, you have a right to be in 10 Downing Street.
A right to put oneself to the HoC. Not quite the same thing.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Straightforward no to that post. We are not even a year away from the Hartlepool by election last May. What’s really changed underneath this partygate froth? We don’t know. No one knows.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
You can’t possibly know.
No, but I suppose it also depends what one includes in levelling up. If people are going to feel a clear dip in their living standards, which they may well do in the next few months, in my mind that's already started to become merged with the levelling up issue, or rhetoric of equality - others may disagree - because people may simply feel that their level has to be raised up even further in balance, to satisfy what was advertised. It just looks to me as if many people may suffer a substantial shock with costs, and trust has been lowered.
That's why although I agree with your analysis that partygate needs leaks to keep it going, I don't think it's just froth. A lot of trust has been lost for some people, and when you merge with that sudden or unpredictable changes in living standards, all sorts of things can emerge.
Infrastructure. I would say. Correct me where wrong, but Tory mayor were appearing in Red Wall long before Boris came along saying levelling up. These Mayors broke with years of rolling over letting globalisation tickle tummy under New Labour with venture capitalism by introducing things like free ports.
Jobs I would say. Boris planted a question for him in todays PMQs about a red wall constituency creating proper jobs in a battery plant. In power they have power to gerrymander an awful lot of constituency’s like this. Levelling up is far from a busted flush. Impression of levelling up can easily win Tories a majority at next GE from here.
PS thanks for acknowledging my observance without Cummings and Norman the media are hopeless at maintaining this froth on their own.
I don’t want to tempt fate - the bitch - by saying where exactly I am going. Just in case She intervenes. The bureaucratic faff has been plentiful and things could still go wrong
Ukraine! Our man on the spot.
Make sure you wrap up warm Leon, we don’t want you catching a sniffle
Fortunately, @Leon will wear a 'raincoat', so there'll be no danger of him catching a 'sniffle'.
A communication from North Tyneside Conservatives dolled up to look like an official local council letter.
Didn't Trump's lot do that?
Technique (ab)used from time to time by Republicans AND Democrats in USA
That's one American import I'd be happy to see high barriers to entry slapped on.
Anyway, on another matter, it's looking really grim in Tonga. So far the official death toll is at three but looking at the devastation it's surely going to be far, far higher. And without food and water and major difficulties getting it in, things could get worse before they get better.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Or not. The scene lacks a Churchill unless maybe we are watching a 1940 epic translated into a Whitehall farce.
I thought Cromwell came up with the quote?
And I thought it was an aging Lloyd George who saw off Chamberlain with his speech. "The nation is prepared for every sacrifice so long as it has leadership, as long as the Government show clearly what they are aiming at and so long as the nation is confident that those who are leading it are doing their best. I say solemnly that the Prime Minister should give an example of sacrifice, because there is nothing which can contribute more to victory in this war than that he should sacrifice the seals of office."
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Or not. The scene lacks a Churchill unless maybe we are watching a 1940 epic translated into a Whitehall farce.
I thought Cromwell came up with the quote?
In 1653, when running the Rump of the Loooong Parliament out of the Palace of Westminster.
Who knows who HE stole it from? Cause bet ya he did!
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Straightforward no to that post. We are not even a year away from the Hartlepool by election last May. What’s really changed underneath this partygate froth? We don’t know. No one knows.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
You can’t possibly know.
What has changed is that the commenter who called Hartlepool as peak Boris on the day of the result, was regarded then as a drooling, self-fouling idiot, and now as a prophetic demi god. Without the demi.
You mean you called it peak Boris 😂
It was a good call.
Now what are the Labour and Conservative vote shares at next election for your next good call?
Who could be that right twice in a lifetime?
I am on lab maj at 11/2, now in to 9/2. We shall see.
We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower.
No honestly we were, because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman.
Any further questions?
What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote bottom of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Or not. The scene lacks a Churchill unless maybe we are watching a 1940 epic translated into a Whitehall farce.
I thought Cromwell came up with the quote?
And I thought it was an aging Lloyd George who saw off Chamberlain with his speech. "The nation is prepared for every sacrifice so long as it has leadership, as long as the Government show clearly what they are aiming at and so long as the nation is confident that those who are leading it are doing their best. I say solemnly that the Prime Minister should give an example of sacrifice, because there is nothing which can contribute more to victory in this war than that he should sacrifice the seals of office."
There was no one speech that saw off Chamberlain. Sir Roger Keyes was arguably as important as Amery by demonstrating the confusion of tactics due to conflicting orders causing both military defeats and a collapse in morale. Sinclair was forensic in demonstrating that there was a lack of grip and clarity in strategic decision making screwing up the logistics, as to a lesser extent was Attlee. Arthur Greenwood's closing speech was perfectly judged and focussed on policy, which made Chamberlain's decision to make the whole thing about personality even more unwise. Clement Davies didn't speak, but without him nobody would have heard Amery's speech.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
"superiors" is cavalier talk.
Well, current affairs are revolving around heads.
Nice pun.
Are you strong on the civil war period of History Dr Y?
Out enjoying the winter weather and an afternoon's equine activity in East Sussex so catching up on today's happenings.
I don't know if anyone has noted the YouGov poll in the Evening Standard:
Labour 55 Conservative 23 LD 9 Green 7 Reform 3 are the capital-wide figures.
This hides a 43-point Labour lead in Inner London (61-18) and a 26-point lead in Outer London (51-25).
The 2018 local election figures were Labour 44 Conservative 29 LD 13
Now, it might be easy to extrapolate from 2018 to tonight's figures and suggest a Conservative bloodbath but I'm much less convinced. Labour struggles to get its vote out historically at local elections and if it is going to take Wandsworth, Hillingdon and perhaps Barnet it will need to be getting the vote out.
Conversely, the Conservative and (where targeted) the LD vote tends to come out so for all the froth and fury, in London at any rate, it may not be too much different in vote shares to 2018 at this time. How it will look Borough by Borough is much harder to fathom - I'm tempted by the old adage there's usually less change than you expect.
Yes, feels like Deja vu of 2018 to me regarding expectations.
I tend to agree with that regarding Labour (not even Wandsworth is certain and I can't see a Labour majority on Barnet council). I can see the Tories doing worse now but I think the Tories will bottom out at 25% in London in May. Hillingdon won't happen either I don't think, just gaining a handful of extra council seats in Johnson's constituency would be a good result.
I think Westminster will be the 'shock' if it happens but don't expect it to.
We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower.
No honestly we were, because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman.
Any further questions?
What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote bottom of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere.
They are a double act.
Yup, and it started over Christmas, which is why I think Partygate is part of a lasting impact for the Tories. First there was Paterson, then generic sleaze, and then, just as that was subsiding - and exactly as he done every couple of weeks since then - Cummings and his "friend" arrived at exactly the right moment to prolong the narrative. As a result, a lot of people have had a continuous three months of disillusion with the Tories now, and that's what's behind the 13-point leads, I think.
A communication from North Tyneside Conservatives dolled up to look like an official local council letter.
Didn't Trump's lot do that?
Technique (ab)used from time to time by Republicans AND Democrats in USA
That's one American import I'd be happy to see high barriers to entry slapped on.
Anyway, on another matter, it's looking really grim in Tonga. So far the official death toll is at three but looking at the devastation it's surely going to be far, far higher. And without food and water and major difficulties getting it in, things could get worse before they get better.
Based on experience of Mt St Helens eruption/explosion, am more hopeful loss of life will be than you fear.
Appears most in Tonga got tsunami warning, which of course was not an issue with MSH. Nor did Tongans have to deal with mud & debris flows down rivers. In both cases plenty of rocks & esp. ash raining down. Highly survivable provided not too heavy in your locality AND you could find shelter.
Huge problem in both cases: dealing with and cleaning out inches-to-feet of ash deposited, which in Tonga's case has reportedly taken out most if not all potable water infrastructure.
PLUS the Tongans now face risk of COVID, in country that IIRC has had just ONE reported case.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
Inclined to agree. I think it is reasonably clear what is needed:
1 - Do it at wholesale not retail level, so as to reduce retail inflation pressure. 2 - Do it short term (4 or 6 months?) as it may be a shorter term issue than the industry are shouting about. Then review. 3 - Maintain the existing price cap. Given reduced summer demand, bills may well go down. Gas demand will reduce significantly as less is needed for heating, and less to make electricity. Given that lots more electricity is coming on stream, that pressure for usage of gas may also have been mitigated by autumn to some extent. 4 - Borrowing has undershot expectations significantly, so there is headroom for financing if required. 5 - Offer appropriate short term support for the industry by some mechanism. Perhaps cap wholesale electricity prices.
I would say leave VAT exactly where it is, and review in time for autumn.
Strong action required as there is limited political capital (!) left to spaff away at this point.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, .
I immensely dislike Dominic Cummings but calling him incompetent is ridiculous.
We probably have Brexit because of Cummings' brilliance and we have a whopping tory majority for the same reason.
The man is appalling. But brilliant.
I think there is a reasonable chance that Dominic Cummings is not nearly as brilliant as Dominic Cummings thinks Dominic Cummings is.
Maybe that’s still good enough to outwit a lumbering clown?
We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower.
No honestly we were, because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman.
Any further questions?
What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote bottom of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere.
We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower.
No honestly we were, because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman.
Any further questions?
What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote bottom of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere.
They are a double act.
Like Sean and Leon?
🙂
To be serious, like Cummings and spinners working for Rishi.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
Very few are adopting an anti science viewpoint.
Most of us are saying masks work (as does staying in your home and not seeing anyone) but there should be a cost benefit/risk assessment as there are societal costs to mask mandates. For many people masks have a significant deleterious effect on their well being.
Some of us are saying this because at this level of infectiousness and protection Omicron is similar to the flu. We point to the fact that pre 2020 we didn't wear masks for the flu. And people weren't as scared or anxious. And flu and pneumonia killed 30,000 people per year pre 2020.
Omicron has been killing more than flu and putting more strain on the NHS than flu (thus impacting on other services). Adding flu and pneumonia together is misleading. Flu is a serious illness and we spend a lot of time and effort every year on dealing with it, so even if COVID got to a point of only being as bad as the flu, which is yet to be the case, that presumably means we’d still want to spend a lot of time and effort every year dealing with it.
The societal impact of mask mandates is small. The societal impact of Gove insisting on teaching phonics, which turns out not to work, seems higher. The societal impact of the Crime and Policing Bill is serious. The societal impact of the Govt undermining democracy and demanding photo ID is serious. The societal impact of Big Tech having too much power to control our lives, and ducking all their tax, is serious.
Sure, let’s weigh up pros/cons on masks, but the idea that mask impacts are the overriding threat to personal freedom in the modern world that some here seem to think is preposterous.
Do you have a link to the claim phonics don’t work? In my experience they are a damn sight better than child centred learning and whole word guessing
Comments
Problem is, if the SNP and LDs disagree ...
Jobs I would say. Boris planted a question for him in todays PMQs about a red wall constituency creating proper jobs in a battery plant. In power they have power to gerrymander an awful lot of constituency’s like this. Levelling up is far from a busted flush. Impression of levelling up can easily win Tories a majority at next GE from here.
PS thanks for acknowledging my observance without Cummings and Norman the media are hopeless at maintaining this froth on their own.
Anyway, on another matter, it's looking really grim in Tonga. So far the official death toll is at three but looking at the devastation it's surely going to be far, far higher. And without food and water and major difficulties getting it in, things could get worse before they get better.
"The nation is prepared for every sacrifice so long as it has leadership, as long as the Government show clearly what they are aiming at and so long as the nation is confident that those who are leading it are doing their best. I say solemnly that the Prime Minister should give an example of sacrifice, because there is nothing which can contribute more to victory in this war than that he should sacrifice the seals of office."
Who knows who HE stole it from? Cause bet ya he did!
They are a double act.
Let's call it a team effort and leave it at that.
NEW THREAD
Are you strong on the civil war period of History Dr Y?
Was Cromwell a Freemason?
I tend to agree with that regarding Labour (not even Wandsworth is certain and I can't see a Labour majority on Barnet council). I can see the Tories doing worse now but I think the Tories will bottom out at 25% in London in May. Hillingdon won't happen either I don't think, just gaining a handful of extra council seats in Johnson's constituency would be a good result.
I think Westminster will be the 'shock' if it happens but don't expect it to.
Appears most in Tonga got tsunami warning, which of course was not an issue with MSH. Nor did Tongans have to deal with mud & debris flows down rivers. In both cases plenty of rocks & esp. ash raining down. Highly survivable provided not too heavy in your locality AND you could find shelter.
Huge problem in both cases: dealing with and cleaning out inches-to-feet of ash deposited, which in Tonga's case has reportedly taken out most if not all potable water infrastructure.
PLUS the Tongans now face risk of COVID, in country that IIRC has had just ONE reported case.
1 - Do it at wholesale not retail level, so as to reduce retail inflation pressure.
2 - Do it short term (4 or 6 months?) as it may be a shorter term issue than the industry are shouting about. Then review.
3 - Maintain the existing price cap. Given reduced summer demand, bills may well go down. Gas demand will reduce significantly as less is needed for heating, and less to make electricity. Given that lots more electricity is coming on stream, that pressure for usage of gas may also have been mitigated by autumn to some extent.
4 - Borrowing has undershot expectations significantly, so there is headroom for financing if required.
5 - Offer appropriate short term support for the industry by some mechanism. Perhaps cap wholesale electricity prices.
I would say leave VAT exactly where it is, and review in time for autumn.
Strong action required as there is limited political capital (!) left to spaff away at this point.
To be serious, like Cummings and spinners working for Rishi.