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Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “One thing’s for sure – there is more to come.”

    This is the killer point. As soon as Boris makes a small step forward, the ground is going to be removed from under his feet. This is fascinating to witness. Someone’s playing a blinder. Sunak? Truss? Gove? Cummings? A.N. Other?

    I suspect A.N. Other. If you’re reading this: you’re good. Very, very good. Chapeau!

    Its Cummings. The guy is a higher-level strategist. Sacked by Peppa to keep the missus happy, he knows everything because he was involved in everything. So he can choose what to release when it will do the most damage, has already assessed what Peppa will do because he knows him so well, and is sat there dropping new information at the precise time to acutely cause the most damage.
    Until this week I was going to vote for Sunak as next leader.

    However as a Tory member if Cummings keeps up with this campaign and forces Boris out I might even vote for Truss now she has said she backs a constitutional monarchy over Sunak as I do not believe Cummings should be rewarded with what he wants. Even if that makes Starmer PM
    Not a game, HYUFD. It is about the governance of the UK. You are prepared to let Starmer in and increase the odds on an indyref, just to clarify Dom's Messiah/very naughty boy status?
    If Labour want to allow an indyref2 and devomax that is their problem
    It’s the UK’s problem.
    For which Labour would be responsible. The Tories do better in England than the UK, they have no benefit by respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote. The UK does.

    If Starmer becomes PM and allows an indyref2 he will be responsible if it is lost as much as if it is won
    For many of us, the allocation of responsibility is a second order issue, to keeping the country together in the first place.
  • kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    I agree with most of that and approve of it, although I think you are wrong about the LDs. The LDs would also likely split as well (not sure why you think they would be any different from Lab/Tory in that respect). I have no idea how it would pan out but the LDs are definitely a coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats. I'm guessing there would be a Liberal party, maybe a Social Democrat party (if they didn't join ex Tory/Lab groups). If a Social Democrat party I would expect it to attract some ex-Tories and Labour and maybe become a main player. I suspect I would be in the Liberal party which I imagine would be a small party. All a huge amount of guess work that is probably 100% wrong on my part.
    I know there are internal tensions in the party but I'm hopeful that they aren't that bad. It seems clear to me that both the Liberal and Social Democrat wings (I'm the latter) complement each other. Besides which there is a practical issue with a split as both the old Liberal and Social Democratic Parties still exist...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    I agree with most of that and approve of it, although I think you are wrong about the LDs. The LDs would also likely split as well (not sure why you think they would be any different from Lab/Tory in that respect). I have no idea how it would pan out but the LDs are definitely a coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats. I'm guessing there would be a Liberal party, maybe a Social Democrat party (if they didn't join ex Tory/Lab groups). If a Social Democrat party I would expect it to attract some ex-Tories and Labour and maybe become a main player. I suspect I would be in the Liberal party which I imagine would be a small party. All a huge amount of guess work that is probably 100% wrong on my part.
    Back in the Liberal Party?
    Full circle yes I guess and I was a member of the liberal party all those years ago, but things move on and it will depend upon what they stand for in the future. After all the name means nothing.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    kjh said:

    "The Prime Minister’s unprincipled principal private secretary has handed a baseball bat to Labour, which they will use with relish. Downing Street said that Martin Reynolds has the PM’s “full confidence”. Well, he hasn’t got anybody else’s. Reynolds is a damn fool who should resign immediately, if he hasn’t done so by the time you read this."

    Telegraph

    Entirely possible, of course, that Reynolds organised the party on Johnson's instructions, and that Johnson is keeping him there terrified of that emerging.
    If Johnson actually attended it, it's hard to imagine it was a surprise. But he could try that line - "I found to my astonishment that someone had organised a party in the garden, so I went down briefly and saw various people on my staff and wished them all the best." I think the explanation would be greeted with derision, but he might survive that.
    I hadn't thought of that. He could say he was utterly shocked and this is all part of my evidence to the investigation and I didn't mention it before because I didn't want to prejudice the investigation.
    That rather depends on what Cummo's next exhibit might be...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
  • AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    I agree with most of that and approve of it, although I think you are wrong about the LDs. The LDs would also likely split as well (not sure why you think they would be any different from Lab/Tory in that respect). I have no idea how it would pan out but the LDs are definitely a coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats. I'm guessing there would be a Liberal party, maybe a Social Democrat party (if they didn't join ex Tory/Lab groups). If a Social Democrat party I would expect it to attract some ex-Tories and Labour and maybe become a main player. I suspect I would be in the Liberal party which I imagine would be a small party. All a huge amount of guess work that is probably 100% wrong on my part.
    I know there are internal tensions in the party but I'm hopeful that they aren't that bad. It seems clear to me that both the Liberal and Social Democrat wings (I'm the latter) complement each other. Besides which there is a practical issue with a split as both the old Liberal and Social Democratic Parties still exist...
    I was only talking about the hypothetical PR scenario. I also believe that Social Democrats and Liberals complement one another very well indeed with Social Democrats being more grounded and Liberals being more radical in their ideas but both with the same basic objectives.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:
    The part of the politics we should all agree on and acknowledge is Why has Boris been hollowed out and destroyed, not by opposition parties, but by Tories? My Dad reckons They used lockdown parties as a blunt weapon, but the intent of Boris’ Tory assassins is to “take back control” of policy - especially economic and finance policy - from someone who hasn’t a clue about Conservative policy. That’s their motivation for doing it. They believe they are acting in short, medium, long term interest of their party by doing this.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    I agree with most of that and approve of it, although I think you are wrong about the LDs. The LDs would also likely split as well (not sure why you think they would be any different from Lab/Tory in that respect). I have no idea how it would pan out but the LDs are definitely a coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats. I'm guessing there would be a Liberal party, maybe a Social Democrat party (if they didn't join ex Tory/Lab groups). If a Social Democrat party I would expect it to attract some ex-Tories and Labour and maybe become a main player. I suspect I would be in the Liberal party which I imagine would be a small party. All a huge amount of guess work that is probably 100% wrong on my part.
    I know there are internal tensions in the party but I'm hopeful that they aren't that bad. It seems clear to me that both the Liberal and Social Democrat wings (I'm the latter) complement each other. Besides which there is a practical issue with a split as both the old Liberal and Social Democratic Parties still exist...
    France does have an endless number of centrist parties of various liberal/socdem/green stripes, forever forming alliances and falling out. But I suspect you're right and that the LibDems would stay together, at least unless there was another Orange Book-like attempt to drag the party to the right.

    That said, although everyone always talks about the LibDems as the beneficiaries of PR, I suspect the really big winners would be the Greens - and that a few left-leaning LibDem activists would peel off to a Green party capable of winning seats.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited January 2022
    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Indeed.

    Hard to believe, just back in November, I posted here my belief that the PM would eventually leave office discredited and disgraced - to some pushback from PB Tories - and even I wasn't thinking then that it might all come to pass within a matter of weeks!

    Or that a key topic of debate on PB that month was whether Labour would ever see a poll lead in the foreseeable...
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    It was 8 months ago..
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    Thanks Nick :+1:
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
  • eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    A VONC could be a lot of fun. Its absolutely clear that a significant number of Tory MPs are apoplectic about this and are openly and off the record screaming their dissent.

    But should a confidence motion be put to the house many of them will be forced to vote confidence in Johnson and his government.

    What a beautiful political stick to beat red wall Tory MPs with. Voting confidence in Boris Johnson even as the wall of lies collapsed all around him. 100% a stunt, but a useful one.

    Labour probably won't. Bet the SNP will, with an eye on council elections in May.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    HYUFD said:
    The part of the politics we should all agree on and acknowledge is Why has Boris been hollowed out and destroyed, not by opposition parties, but by Tories? My Dad reckons They used lockdown parties as a blunt weapon, but the intent of Boris’ Tory assassins is to “take back control” of policy - especially economic and finance policy - from someone who hasn’t a clue about Conservative policy. That’s their motivation for doing it. They believe they are acting in short, medium, long term interest of their party by doing this.
    Exactly. "Boris" and "Get Brexit Done" we're Trojan horses to get a majority for a Thatcherite policy agenda from people who would never vote for it.
  • MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    Sure one of his chums will lend him a palatial flat somewhere warm for free as well.
    He might as well go for a break, it is not as if his absence will cause a decline in leadership
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    A VONC could be a lot of fun. Its absolutely clear that a significant number of Tory MPs are apoplectic about this and are openly and off the record screaming their dissent.

    But should a confidence motion be put to the house many of them will be forced to vote confidence in Johnson and his government.

    What a beautiful political stick to beat red wall Tory MPs with. Voting confidence in Boris Johnson even as the wall of lies collapsed all around him. 100% a stunt, but a useful one.

    Labour probably won't. Bet the SNP will, with an eye on council elections in May.
    This is absolutely what should happen if he’s not gone (or announced his going) by the end of next week.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Alastair Campbell says hello!
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 395

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    I agree with most of that and approve of it, although I think you are wrong about the LDs. The LDs would also likely split as well (not sure why you think they would be any different from Lab/Tory in that respect). I have no idea how it would pan out but the LDs are definitely a coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats. I'm guessing there would be a Liberal party, maybe a Social Democrat party (if they didn't join ex Tory/Lab groups). If a Social Democrat party I would expect it to attract some ex-Tories and Labour and maybe become a main player. I suspect I would be in the Liberal party which I imagine would be a small party. All a huge amount of guess work that is probably 100% wrong on my part.
    I know there are internal tensions in the party but I'm hopeful that they aren't that bad. It seems clear to me that both the Liberal and Social Democrat wings (I'm the latter) complement each other. Besides which there is a practical issue with a split as both the old Liberal and Social Democratic Parties still exist...
    It's also increasingly ancient history. Most of the old Liberals have gone now that the Celtic fringes have entered the Tory column. Most of the areas that the Lib Dems have (or hope to have) MPs in are ones that the SDP would have targeted. The Liberal/SDP split might still have some echoes in internal policy debates but in terms of active allegiance it's greatly diminished.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Alastair Campbell says hello!
    Nope. Campbell didn't create Blair's leadership platform. Cummings masterminded the 2016 vote, of which Johnson was the figurehead, and which brought Johnson to power.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Inviting him inside number ten and let him collect a box full of secrets before sending him on his way is yet another example of the clown's complete inability to think ahead or do any scenario planning
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
    Yes. He doesn't seem the scheming sort; I expect he's just trying to keep his head down while his neighbour self-destructs.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    What can Sunak do, resign and have someone you believe less good take your job?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited January 2022

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    A VONC could be a lot of fun. Its absolutely clear that a significant number of Tory MPs are apoplectic about this and are openly and off the record screaming their dissent.

    But should a confidence motion be put to the house many of them will be forced to vote confidence in Johnson and his government.

    What a beautiful political stick to beat red wall Tory MPs with. Voting confidence in Boris Johnson even as the wall of lies collapsed all around him. 100% a stunt, but a useful one.

    Labour probably won't. Bet the SNP will, with an eye on council elections in May.
    The political effect of a VONC is usually to force a government to close ranks - hence why it is rarely done. The judgement would be whether forcing the Tories to back their discredited leader in the face of such widespread public outrage would have similar damaging consequences as the Paterson vote.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    If you believe the immigration statistics have been wildly wrong for a long time you might believe the population of the UK is 138 million. Maybe.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    HYUFD said:
    The part of the politics we should all agree on and acknowledge is Why has Boris been hollowed out and destroyed, not by opposition parties, but by Tories? My Dad reckons They used lockdown parties as a blunt weapon, but the intent of Boris’ Tory assassins is to “take back control” of policy - especially economic and finance policy - from someone who hasn’t a clue about Conservative policy. That’s their motivation for doing it. They believe they are acting in short, medium, long term interest of their party by doing this.
    Exactly. "Boris" and "Get Brexit Done" we're Trojan horses to get a majority for a Thatcherite policy agenda from people who would never vote for it.
    Meanwhile though, there is the other side, those who installed him.

    Boris name is associated with Get Brexit Done. That is proper Brexit not May’s remainer government softer Brexit. But if you were ardent Brexiteer keen to exploit the change in the way you always imagined (we wouldn’t think Lord Frost alone in this world in that) and you are taking a long hard look at Boris for this, is Boris really the one to Make Brexit Work.
  • Looking back at Allegra Stratton answering test questions about a Christmas party:

    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-07/no-10-staff-joke-in-leaked-recording-about-christmas-party-they-later-denied

    Maybe I'm noticing something which isn't really there but the term 'socially distanced' seems to be an in joke among the Downing Street gang.

    I wonder if there might be a connection to the 'socially distanced' garden party.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Scott_xP said:

    The line from Tobias Ellwood this morning is apologise, and let cabinet decide his fate.

    Which means he gets away with it. Again.

    Idea Johnson is safe if he delivers at PMQs is obvs absurd. He'll then have to get over next hurdle of Sue Gray report (probs end next week). Hope his Omicron gamble pays off; deal with UK cost of living crisis & manage fallout of May elections where Tories will probs be trounced

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1481196984639889409?s=20
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Sophie Morris
    @itssophiemorris
    ·
    18m
    Tory MP Tobias Ellwood tells Sky News: "I strongly urge the PM to act now, to apologise for No 10's poor judgment, to show some contrition & to be committed to appropriately respond to Sue Gray's findings when they come out. We can't allow things to drift, that is not an option."

    Interesting that the Tories think an apology is sufficient when they normally like to pose as the party that's tough on criminals and miscreants. One rule for them...
    To be fair he didn't say it was sufficent, just something which Boris should do.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Conservative Home asks : If Johnson has to quit, is it best he does so now? https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2022/01/if-johnson-has-to-quit-is-it-best-he-does-so-quickly.html
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
    I think he's just taking a purist position on what makes a true Scot, like a Scot-supremacist HYUFD. Maybe only SNP voters are true Scots, that would get somewhere close to 4%, would it not?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Selebian said:

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
    I think he's just taking a purist position on what makes a true Scot, like a Scot-supremacist HYUFD. Maybe only SNP voters are true Scots, that would get somewhere close to 4%, would it not?
    Yes, I suppose it would. The consequences of such a view would also be a very easy Yes majority.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI, this seems like the more sensible solution for GB News than being on TV. Also a lot harder for advertisers to pull their adverts. Not sure if the numbers are true:

    https://twitter.com/ThatAlexWoman/status/1480948066589069319
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Scott_xP said:

    The line from Tobias Ellwood this morning is apologise, and let cabinet decide his fate.

    Which means he gets away with it. Again.

    Idea Johnson is safe if he delivers at PMQs is obvs absurd. He'll then have to get over next hurdle of Sue Gray report (probs end next week). Hope his Omicron gamble pays off; deal with UK cost of living crisis & manage fallout of May elections where Tories will probs be trounced

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1481196984639889409?s=20
    Mainstream news outlets have Sue several weeks away from delivering her Gray Report. And, if police step in and say they are investigating she has to stop and not report.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
    Yes. He doesn't seem the scheming sort; I expect he's just trying to keep his head down while his neighbour self-destructs.
    Really all Sunak needs to say (assuming he didn't attend any) is 'these were all within the No10 office, I wasn't really aware at the time, and all my focus and energy was on working in the Treasury and doing my job'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Keep thinking about this quote. Can't think why.
    ‘The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat. He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-is-the-ultimate-escape-artist-even-he-will-struggle-to-wriggle-out-of-this-one-989xrw7lh
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
    Yes. He doesn't seem the scheming sort; I expect he's just trying to keep his head down while his neighbour self-destructs.
    Of course that photo taken from a Treasury window of a party ages ago only happened to be leaked recently by chance ........
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    A VONC could be a lot of fun. Its absolutely clear that a significant number of Tory MPs are apoplectic about this and are openly and off the record screaming their dissent.

    But should a confidence motion be put to the house many of them will be forced to vote confidence in Johnson and his government.

    What a beautiful political stick to beat red wall Tory MPs with. Voting confidence in Boris Johnson even as the wall of lies collapsed all around him. 100% a stunt, but a useful one.

    Labour probably won't. Bet the SNP will, with an eye on council elections in May.
    The political effect of a VONC is usually to force a government to close ranks - hence why it is rarely done. The judgement would be whether forcing the Tories to back their discredited leader in the face of such widespread public outrage would have similar damaging consequences as the Paterson vote.
    I think Labour would want to see the feedback on the attack posters.

    XYZ thought partying was fine while you couldn't go to your Aunts' Funeral probably plays well but you would want the wording fine tuned and clearly ready to go before you hit the VONC button..

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Mood among Tory MPs worse for Number 10 than yesterday
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1481202964907843585
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    “Whatever way you look at it, Novak Djokovic is a lying, sneaky asshole.”

    Hot mic captures Australian television journalists talking candidly, off-air.


    https://twitter.com/cjwerleman/status/1481093737183072261?s=20
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Kay Burley: If he misled the House, should he resign?
    Huw Merriman MP: It just depends what's occurred.
    B: If it's proven, should he resign?
    M: I don't actually know the answer to that.
    B: The answer, as you know, is yes.
    M: If you already know the answer, why ask me?

    Wow. ~ AA
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1481206138259521536/video/1
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited January 2022
    Stereodog said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    I agree with most of that and approve of it, although I think you are wrong about the LDs. The LDs would also likely split as well (not sure why you think they would be any different from Lab/Tory in that respect). I have no idea how it would pan out but the LDs are definitely a coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats. I'm guessing there would be a Liberal party, maybe a Social Democrat party (if they didn't join ex Tory/Lab groups). If a Social Democrat party I would expect it to attract some ex-Tories and Labour and maybe become a main player. I suspect I would be in the Liberal party which I imagine would be a small party. All a huge amount of guess work that is probably 100% wrong on my part.
    I know there are internal tensions in the party but I'm hopeful that they aren't that bad. It seems clear to me that both the Liberal and Social Democrat wings (I'm the latter) complement each other. Besides which there is a practical issue with a split as both the old Liberal and Social Democratic Parties still exist...
    It's also increasingly ancient history. Most of the old Liberals have gone now that the Celtic fringes have entered the Tory column. Most of the areas that the Lib Dems have (or hope to have) MPs in are ones that the SDP would have targeted. The Liberal/SDP split might still have some echoes in internal policy debates but in terms of active allegiance it's greatly diminished.
    I'm a bit player now (if that) but I didn't used to be and I never came across any issues between liberals and social democrats within the party (obviously there was with those that didn't join) so I agree.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
    Yes. He doesn't seem the scheming sort; I expect he's just trying to keep his head down while his neighbour self-destructs.
    Really all Sunak needs to say (assuming he didn't attend any) is 'these were all within the No10 office, I wasn't really aware at the time, and all my focus and energy was on working in the Treasury and doing my job'
    "I wasn't aware"? Despite someone taking photos from the Treasury and not mentioning it at all. Despite all the hoo-ha over Cummings at the time which Sunak did comment on I seem to recall. Despite the reported arguments about whether there should be further restrictions on which Sunak had a view.

    That's a pretty Nelsonian approach and to me about as believable as Boris saying that he was shocked to learn about parties happening in the place where he lived and worked.
  • IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    A VONC could be a lot of fun. Its absolutely clear that a significant number of Tory MPs are apoplectic about this and are openly and off the record screaming their dissent.

    But should a confidence motion be put to the house many of them will be forced to vote confidence in Johnson and his government.

    What a beautiful political stick to beat red wall Tory MPs with. Voting confidence in Boris Johnson even as the wall of lies collapsed all around him. 100% a stunt, but a useful one.

    Labour probably won't. Bet the SNP will, with an eye on council elections in May.
    The political effect of a VONC is usually to force a government to close ranks - hence why it is rarely done. The judgement would be whether forcing the Tories to back their discredited leader in the face of such widespread public outrage would have similar damaging consequences as the Paterson vote.
    I *want* them to close ranks. I want red wall MPs to acquiesce to the whips and say that here and now, despite all we know, that they still have confidence in the PM and his government.

    I would absolutely expect such a vote of confidence would do nothing to save him - this has sunk him. But it also allows those of us who want rid of these Tory lickspittles to point to the albatross hung round their necks.

    That just like the few remaining apologists on here this morning they chose to stand with the lies just as the public outrage and disgust hit the peak. So that when they say "please vote for me, look at the lovely new Sunak government" we can parade their own personal lack of a political compass in supporting *that*
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022
    I think Johnson may limp on for a while - depending on whether he can affect a slightly new style. New honest Boris !
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    On the day of a difficult PMQs for Boris Johnson, the Chancellor finds himself 226 miles away... https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1481205520270868481
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Alastair Campbell says hello!
    Nope. Campbell didn't create Blair's leadership platform. Cummings masterminded the 2016 vote, of which Johnson was the figurehead, and which brought Johnson to power.
    I think Cummings is one of the more open and honest protagonists in this. He wants Boris out because he thinks Boris is crap and Boris shouldn’t be holding the policy reigns and leadership. You could counter saying he was sacked, that’s his driver, but what I am saying probably goes back to a position Cummings came to before the sacking. And in a way Cummings is in the headspace of many backbench Tory grandee’s, that Boris would be better if his political life didn’t keep tripping over his personal life so intermingled.

    And I have made that point without any picture of a 🐿

    Oh 🤭
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited January 2022
    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    There is no such thing as a good election to lose. Being in office means a party gets to change the country and set the political narrative. That's always better than being in opposition, even if governments of your side sometimes make such a hash of it that you find yourself wishing they were in opposition.

    Take the 1992-7 Tory government. It completed a large number of further privatisations. It kept a Labour party that hadn't yet accepted the Thatcherite revolution out of power.

    You imagine a rosy scenario where Britain's ejection from the ERM leads to a rapid return of the Conservatives to government for another long period - but that isn't the inevitable counter-factual.

    What if Labour had managed to blame the Tories for it and to convince the public that participation in the Euro would protect the country from future embarrassment at the hands of currency speculators? By the time the Conservatives returned to office they could have found Sterling gone and interest rates set in Frankfurt.

    1992 would then look as good an election to lose as 2010 looks to Labour now.

    There is no such thing as a good election to lose.
  • Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    As @Cyclefree is here - a quick question for you.

    How would you feel if you were in Sue Gray's current position and needing to report on the No 10 parties?

    As far as Boris is concerned his best bet is to accept responsibility, apologise unreservedly, explain that he wanted to do something nice for his staff to thank them but that it was not in compliance with the rules or guidelines, he was wrong to do so and not have been fully transparent about all this, if any of the staff members are fined, he will pay the fine and hope that this will be enough. It might work.
    That was possible a month ago. Instead of "I was outraged to see these staffers laughing", had he made a massive apology and eaten borrowed humility then he would have been protected now.

    Instead we have this. A web of lies exposed. Conspiracy to Pervert the Course of Justice. And lying to the house and inducing ministers to lie to the house. To apologise now is to admit lying to the house and opens the door to the polis going after who deleted what to protect him.

    Peppa is Bacon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_xP said:

    Kay Burley: If he misled the House, should he resign?
    Huw Merriman MP: It just depends what's occurred.
    B: If it's proven, should he resign?
    M: I don't actually know the answer to that.
    B: The answer, as you know, is yes.
    M: If you already know the answer, why ask me?

    Wow. ~ AA
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1481206138259521536/video/1

    Kay Burley, what does she know about “Lockdown Parties”?
  • I find myself rather warming to Ms Rayner. She has a passionate energy driving her and she really seems to be enjoying herself. I admire the way she boldly ignores the rules of pronunciation and grammar, without it at all obscuring the clarity of her intended message.

    This morning on the radio she asked the simple question of Boris; "Was yer there, or was yer not?"

    Except she didn't say "was" ending in a 'z' sound. She ended them with what sounded more like a 'j' in the middle of a word. Like a Russian ж

    Woж yer there or woж yer not?

    I wonder if Starmer will ask it quite so clearly.
  • Of course, it should go without saying that an apology issued at a time of immense political danger after months of lies and obfuscations is not an apology, it is an attempt to kick the can a little bit further down the road.
  • Scott_xP said:

    On the day of a difficult PMQs for Boris Johnson, the Chancellor finds himself 226 miles away... https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1481205520270868481

    As I keep pointing out, he has hired the best team in the business.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
    Yes. He doesn't seem the scheming sort; I expect he's just trying to keep his head down while his neighbour self-destructs.
    Of course that photo taken from a Treasury window of a party ages ago only happened to be leaked recently by chance ........
    It will emerge safe distance hence Sunak’s spin twin were main players.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Alastair Campbell says hello!
    Nope. Campbell didn't create Blair's leadership platform. Cummings masterminded the 2016 vote, of which Johnson was the figurehead, and which brought Johnson to power.
    I think Cummings is one of the more open and honest protagonists in this. He wants Boris out because he thinks Boris is crap and Boris shouldn’t be holding the policy reigns and leadership. You could counter saying he was sacked, that’s his driver, but what I am saying probably goes back to a position Cummings came to before the sacking. And in a way Cummings is in the headspace of many backbench Tory grandee’s, that Boris would be better if his political life didn’t keep tripping over his personal life so intermingled.

    And I have made that point without any picture of a 🐿

    Oh 🤭
    That 2/1 bet of yours looks nice now. Impeccably timed.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    @DavidL and @Sandpit being rather tin eared about this.

    The PM broke rules of his own making, and has lied about it. This has really cut through and the anger is genuine. The longer it carries on the more the Conservative Party is compromised.

    I acknowledge that. It is the lying and evasion that is annoying people. But the underlying "offence" is utterly trivial. Remember when we had nearly 2 weeks of nonsense about whether Dominic Cummings went on a drive? And the police then decided they were taking no action because they never did after the event? People need to get a bit of a grip but our political leaders also need to recognise the importance of telling the truth.
    Our PM is a systematic liar. He couldn't lie straight in bed. This matters to a lot of people, though surprisingly not you it seems.
    Yes, its a long held weakness of his and it is unfortunate. But it hardly makes him unique. I work on the basis that if you don't want to be a liar don't go into politics. I repeat the example: Sir Tony Blair lied and lied about what evidence he had of weapons of mass destruction, relying upon a document that Alastair Campbell made up and took us into a truly disastrous war. Why should Boris be any more accountable than him?
    Curious argument for a lawyer to make, never heard a speeding motorist defended in court because there are rapists and murderers out there

    Blair was a liar or at least a self-deluding fantasist, sure, but I can't think of any notable lies from other PMs from Thatcher onwards. And Blair has been jumped on to the extent of 1m no knighthood signatures, so not much of an example of afree pass.
    But of course there is no speeding in England, you all being so law abiding and all.
    Are you supporting breakaway for your Scottish Tory party David? You sound like you have tired of those reckless drivers in England.
    It's not my party, Stuart, I have never been a member. I thought that your description of Douglas Ross earlier was a bit optimistic but it described me pretty well. I am a Unionist above all. If a Labour party committed to the Union came to dominate Scottish politics again I would be absolutely ok with that.

    I think, FWIW, that tactically there is quite a lot to be said for a rather more autonomous Conservative and Unionist party in Scotland, focused on the issues before the Scottish Parliament.
    My mistake. You’re such an eloquent advocate for the party I always had you down as a senior member. Glad to see you now switching to the wholesale millionaire. No more wasted vote in Dundee! 😉
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    A VONC could be a lot of fun. Its absolutely clear that a significant number of Tory MPs are apoplectic about this and are openly and off the record screaming their dissent.

    But should a confidence motion be put to the house many of them will be forced to vote confidence in Johnson and his government.

    What a beautiful political stick to beat red wall Tory MPs with. Voting confidence in Boris Johnson even as the wall of lies collapsed all around him. 100% a stunt, but a useful one.

    Labour probably won't. Bet the SNP will, with an eye on council elections in May.
    The political effect of a VONC is usually to force a government to close ranks - hence why it is rarely done. The judgement would be whether forcing the Tories to back their discredited leader in the face of such widespread public outrage would have similar damaging consequences as the Paterson vote.
    I *want* them to close ranks. I want red wall MPs to acquiesce to the whips and say that here and now, despite all we know, that they still have confidence in the PM and his government.

    I would absolutely expect such a vote of confidence would do nothing to save him - this has sunk him. But it also allows those of us who want rid of these Tory lickspittles to point to the albatross hung round their necks.

    That just like the few remaining apologists on here this morning they chose to stand with the lies just as the public outrage and disgust hit the peak. So that when they say "please vote for me, look at the lovely new Sunak government" we can parade their own personal lack of a political compass in supporting *that*
    “ I *want* them to close ranks. I want red wall MPs to acquiesce to the whips and say that here and now, despite all we know, that they still have confidence in the PM and his government. “

    I don’t.

    As a Libdem I guess I should be happy to see Boris Premiership drag on as long and damaging for his party as possible now. Truth is, I wouldn’t feel rightly supportive of all the people genuinely distressed by the crimes of Boris. 😕.

    Can you Conservatives just end this ASAP please?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    .
    Scott_xP said:

    Kay Burley: If he misled the House, should he resign?
    Huw Merriman MP: It just depends what's occurred.
    B: If it's proven, should he resign?
    M: I don't actually know the answer to that.
    B: The answer, as you know, is yes.
    M: If you already know the answer, why ask me?
    A

    The answer to that is the pretty obvious - 'to find out whether or not you're happy to retain a notorious liar as PM'.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited January 2022
    Johnson’s main achievement is to have created a new political party, bearing the Conservative name, that does not believe in the sanctity of Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. That is a lasting legacy that all his potential successors are firmly bought into.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Alastair Campbell says hello!
    Nope. Campbell didn't create Blair's leadership platform. Cummings masterminded the 2016 vote, of which Johnson was the figurehead, and which brought Johnson to power.
    I think Cummings is one of the more open and honest protagonists in this. He wants Boris out because he thinks Boris is crap and Boris shouldn’t be holding the policy reigns and leadership. You could counter saying he was sacked, that’s his driver, but what I am saying probably goes back to a position Cummings came to before the sacking. And in a way Cummings is in the headspace of many backbench Tory grandee’s, that Boris would be better if his political life didn’t keep tripping over his personal life so intermingled.

    And I have made that point without any picture of a 🐿

    Oh 🤭
    That 2/1 bet of yours looks nice now. Impeccably timed.
    Thanks Kinabalu 🙂 have you seen how the Boris exit 2022 changed since Sunday? When you said go on then put a bet on I’ve made £50. So it’s a bet of yours, didn’t we jump in together?

    Did you see the wonder horse poem?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
    Yes. He doesn't seem the scheming sort; I expect he's just trying to keep his head down while his neighbour self-destructs.
    Really all Sunak needs to say (assuming he didn't attend any) is 'these were all within the No10 office, I wasn't really aware at the time, and all my focus and energy was on working in the Treasury and doing my job'
    "I wasn't aware"? Despite someone taking photos from the Treasury and not mentioning it at all. Despite all the hoo-ha over Cummings at the time which Sunak did comment on I seem to recall. Despite the reported arguments about whether there should be further restrictions on which Sunak had a view.

    That's a pretty Nelsonian approach and to me about as believable as Boris saying that he was shocked to learn about parties happening in the place where he lived and worked.
    Ok, instead of 'I wasn't aware', just say, my focus was on working at my department and keeping the economy going'

    It wasn't his department, and wasn't his office. I think he'll be fine (as long as nothing similar in No11).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    "Incapable of good governance", "avoids responsibility" and "tells lies"... 👀

    Just some of the accusations laid at the door of @BorisJohnson by former Attorney General Dominic Grieve 👇


    #KayBurley FM https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1481205372371316738/video/1
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Johnson’s main achievement is to have created a new political party, bearing the Conservative name, that does not believe in the sanctity of Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. That is a lasting legacy that all his potential successors are firmly bought into.

    Pretty much. It's not a party I want anything to do with.
  • IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I asked this yesterday and I don't think I got a reply - what is the punishment in Parliament for being caught lying to Parliament?

    Perhaps Boris is hoping for a 30 day suspension? It would save him from doing 4 or 5 PMQs.. ;)
    I think it counts as contempt for Parliament. Traditionally it's a resigning matter for Ministers, but it's subject to a vote and they can try to ride it out. The Government survived even a successful contempt motion in 2018 which I must admit I'd forgotten about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
    @NickPalmer - perhaps you could clarify something I get the impression that a lot of Parliaments rules depend on the people in question "self-enforcing" the penalties. If Boris ignored a contempt order, what could Parliament do about it?
    Labour can put dfown a VONC at 24 hours' notice. Parliament could vote for it and he'd be out. Or they could vote for him and hope the public wouldn't mind (good luck with that).
    A VONC could be a lot of fun. Its absolutely clear that a significant number of Tory MPs are apoplectic about this and are openly and off the record screaming their dissent.

    But should a confidence motion be put to the house many of them will be forced to vote confidence in Johnson and his government.

    What a beautiful political stick to beat red wall Tory MPs with. Voting confidence in Boris Johnson even as the wall of lies collapsed all around him. 100% a stunt, but a useful one.

    Labour probably won't. Bet the SNP will, with an eye on council elections in May.
    The political effect of a VONC is usually to force a government to close ranks - hence why it is rarely done. The judgement would be whether forcing the Tories to back their discredited leader in the face of such widespread public outrage would have similar damaging consequences as the Paterson vote.
    I *want* them to close ranks. I want red wall MPs to acquiesce to the whips and say that here and now, despite all we know, that they still have confidence in the PM and his government.

    I would absolutely expect such a vote of confidence would do nothing to save him - this has sunk him. But it also allows those of us who want rid of these Tory lickspittles to point to the albatross hung round their necks.

    That just like the few remaining apologists on here this morning they chose to stand with the lies just as the public outrage and disgust hit the peak. So that when they say "please vote for me, look at the lovely new Sunak government" we can parade their own personal lack of a political compass in supporting *that*
    “ I *want* them to close ranks. I want red wall MPs to acquiesce to the whips and say that here and now, despite all we know, that they still have confidence in the PM and his government. “

    I don’t.

    As a Libdem I guess I should be happy to see Boris Premiership drag on as long and damaging for his party as possible now. Truth is, I wouldn’t feel rightly supportive of all the people genuinely distressed by the crimes of Boris. 😕.

    Can you Conservatives just end this ASAP please?
    I don't think for a second that a won confidence vote is the end. Far from it. It does nothing to get Peppa off the hook. Or call off Cummings. Or stymie the public molten lava rage. It just glues Tory MPs to the side of the ship as it sinks.

    Think about it. Sunak will try and pretend that his administration is a new government. That they haven't been in power for 12 years. That they can't be blamed for the excesses and mistakes of the previous government.

    So lets have the likes of David Duguid voting full confidence in Boris Johnson and his government. Won't save the PM or the government. But helps remove Duguid.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    As @Cyclefree is here - a quick question for you.

    How would you feel if you were in Sue Gray's current position and needing to report on the No 10 parties?

    As far as Boris is concerned his best bet is to accept responsibility, apologise unreservedly, explain that he wanted to do something nice for his staff to thank them but that it was not in compliance with the rules or guidelines, he was wrong to do so and not have been fully transparent about all this, if any of the staff members are fined, he will pay the fine and hope that this will be enough. It might work.
    That was possible a month ago. Instead of "I was outraged to see these staffers laughing", had he made a massive apology and eaten borrowed humility then he would have been protected now.

    Instead we have this. A web of lies exposed. Conspiracy to Pervert the Course of Justice. And lying to the house and inducing ministers to lie to the house. To apologise now is to admit lying to the house and opens the door to the polis going after who deleted what to protect him.

    Peppa is Bacon.
    Conspiracy to pervert the course of justice is a hard offence to prove. Once the police are involved no-one will say anything so politically it potentially buys him breathing space. And I don't have a lot of confidence in the Met's investigative powers or their understanding of the laws at the time. Remember that pretty much all the prosecutions they brought were dropped by the CPS because the police had made such a mess of them.

    It's the utter hypocrisy and contempt for the public and the lies which are the political problem here and which are undermining what standards are left in public life.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Conservative MP Matt Warman says “we never put a law in place that said you couldn’t go into your own garden”.

    But the rules did say you couldn’t invite 100 people to join you.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481209656601198595
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    FYI, this seems like the more sensible solution for GB News than being on TV. Also a lot harder for advertisers to pull their adverts. Not sure if the numbers are true:

    https://twitter.com/ThatAlexWoman/status/1480948066589069319

    You can look at live viewer numbers on channels with a live stream on YouTube, which GB News does. At time of writing - which admittedly is very much off-peak - it's 812. They'll also get streams of individual clips and interviews, of course, but it simply isn't a replacement for broadcast at those levels or anything like them.

    In terms of YouTube subscribers, they have indeed narrowly overtaken LBC (which doesn't have a live stream and isn't quite such a visual medium) with 351k subscribers, although LBC gets a lot more clip views, it appears, as you get people like Iain Dale getting big names on his show, and James O'Brien and Nick Ferrari being good at producing viral moments.

    It should be said, for context, however, that Sky News' YouTube channel has 9.3 million subscribers and 9,700 are watching right now, while the BBC News YouTube channel has no live stream but 11.2 million subscribers. So very different leagues.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,180
    Farooq said:

    Selebian said:

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
    I think he's just taking a purist position on what makes a true Scot, like a Scot-supremacist HYUFD. Maybe only SNP voters are true Scots, that would get somewhere close to 4%, would it not?
    Yes, I suppose it would. The consequences of such a view would also be a very easy Yes majority.
    It kills off any majority government unless you actually gain... you know... a majority. Given the Tory dominance on a minority vote I think Labour and indeed every other party would welcome the chance to even up the balance, indeed if Blair had had the wisdom to accept the Jenkins report it would have happened 20 years ago and none of the past ten years would have happened. Every European political system functions under some kind of PR, and most are doing a lot better than we are, so "PR government is weak government" is bollocks. After all what could be weaker than BoJo now, and he has a working majority (admittedly on a minority vote)? PR makes the political system more open and competitive and after this fiasco I think we can all see that the current system is a dismal failure. So I think the case for major consitutional reform: Lords (absurdity of "elected hereditaries" etc), Monarchy (How can Prince Andrew still be a consellor of state?), Commons (government governing without reference to Parliament) dictatorship), the nations of the UK (proper agreement on the powers of the national and federal parliaments), local government (on the brink of collapse as it stands) and fair votes and all, is now prety much unanswerable. In fact unless this constitutional crisis is addressed pretty soon the "UK" will soon be going the way of Austria Hungary. Johnson is as much a symptom as a cause of this.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    @DavidL and @Sandpit being rather tin eared about this.

    The PM broke rules of his own making, and has lied about it. This has really cut through and the anger is genuine. The longer it carries on the more the Conservative Party is compromised.

    I acknowledge that. It is the lying and evasion that is annoying people. But the underlying "offence" is utterly trivial. Remember when we had nearly 2 weeks of nonsense about whether Dominic Cummings went on a drive? And the police then decided they were taking no action because they never did after the event? People need to get a bit of a grip but our political leaders also need to recognise the importance of telling the truth.
    It is NOT TRIVIAL.

    The restrictions we have been placed under were utterly unprecedented.

    Had any PB'er - some ancient version of Leon, for example - popped up here a few years back and predicted that, soon, we would be prevented by law from seeing friends or family, told how often we could leave our homes, that Police would be counting how many people we were talking to in the park, that we'd be banned from travel (except Leon, obvs) and that people would be arrested for holding small quiet parties in their own gardens - we'd have told him to get back to his bottle.

    The reason, we were told, that we all had to suffer these 'outrageous' limitations on our freedom and liberty was to stem the spread of the virus and protect the NHS. We were also told we were all in it together.

    That those who took such a dramatic and wide-reaching decision, imposing all of this on the entire population (with consequentially devastating effects for many businesses, and for mental health) and gave the Police the power to arrest and fine people who transgressed, somehow felt they were above making the same sacrifices themselves, felt able to laugh and joke about it, and then lie about it, is the issue.
    Does not mean people always complied, Durdle Door beach was packed in May 2020 despite police efforts

    https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/gallery/durdle-door-beach-packed-again-4179481
    Yes. The famous Durdle Door committee that’s makes decisions for the rest of us. They should have set an example.
    So you spotted HY’s squirrel.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Alastair Campbell says hello!
    Nope. Campbell didn't create Blair's leadership platform. Cummings masterminded the 2016 vote, of which Johnson was the figurehead, and which brought Johnson to power.
    I think Cummings is one of the more open and honest protagonists in this. He wants Boris out because he thinks Boris is crap and Boris shouldn’t be holding the policy reigns and leadership. You could counter saying he was sacked, that’s his driver, but what I am saying probably goes back to a position Cummings came to before the sacking. And in a way Cummings is in the headspace of many backbench Tory grandee’s, that Boris would be better if his political life didn’t keep tripping over his personal life so intermingled.

    And I have made that point without any picture of a 🐿

    Oh 🤭
    That 2/1 bet of yours looks nice now. Impeccably timed.
    Thanks Kinabalu 🙂 have you seen how the Boris exit 2022 changed since Sunday? When you said go on then put a bet on I’ve made £50. So it’s a bet of yours, didn’t we jump in together?

    Did you see the wonder horse poem?
    Yes, I'm awfully glad I steered you to the bookies rather than take the other side myself. Not that a dead head shrewdie like me would have done at 2/1 of course.

    Did see the poem. Very good it was too.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited January 2022
    Out of all the rickety defences of BJ, the one accusing critics of hypocrisy seems the oddest. Obviously we all live with some amount of hypocrisy in our lives, but isn't a bunch of smirking rsoles breaking the rules in the most obvious way while announcing new versions of said rules the most whited of sepulchres?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Scott_xP said:

    Mood among Tory MPs worse for Number 10 than yesterday
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1481202964907843585

    There was too much in it’s in hand of opposition to finish Boris off on here last night. This is a Conservative party crisis, not a national crisis. It falls on the Conservatives to act, as Conservative MPs are the ones with the guillotine mechanism. In the meantime those on government payroll, from top down, can resign and refuse to serve Boris (anyone at all resigned yet?) The balls in court of the Tories, not parliamentary opponents.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    As @Cyclefree is here - a quick question for you.

    How would you feel if you were in Sue Gray's current position and needing to report on the No 10 parties?

    Like I'd been handed one hell of a hospital pass!

    I did once have an investigation into very very senior Board members, which got pretty political and difficult. The saving grace is that you always have the external regulator as a last resort.

    Here I think I would insist that my report be published in full to Parliament. I would set out all the facts about the parties, what was said to Parliament, what the relevant rules were and civil service codes, set out what the recommended steps should be for civil servants (in accordance with the relevant disciplinary procedures - that section alone will need the Civil Service employment lawyers crawling all over it) and in relation to Ministers and the PM just set out the facts and let Parliament decide.

    The problem is there is no real mechanism for disciplining a PM beyond their own conscience and their party. So setting out the facts is all you can - and should - do.

    Incidentally, I would interview every single Cabinet member and those who had access to No 10 to establish who knew about these parties and what, if anything, they did or did not say or do about what they knew. Those who knew and did nothing should not be let off the hook. I think this is, in my opinion and based on my experience, a very important point and one which risks being overlooked.

    As far as Boris is concerned his best bet is to accept responsibility, apologise unreservedly, explain that he wanted to do something nice for his staff to thank them but that it was not in compliance with the rules or guidelines, he was wrong to do so and not have been fully transparent about all this, if any of the staff members are fined, he will pay the fine and hope that this will be enough. It might work.
    They've already promised to publish her report
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    @DavidL and @Sandpit being rather tin eared about this.

    The PM broke rules of his own making, and has lied about it. This has really cut through and the anger is genuine. The longer it carries on the more the Conservative Party is compromised.

    Like most things, in work, in relationships, in life (and even on PB), a quick recognition that you were wrong and an apology works wonders.

    "The staff of 10 Downing Street worked closely with each other, indoors, over the course of the pandemic. They are dedicated staff who braved Covid every day to come into the office. Given that any transmission of Covid was likely to have already happened inside, it was thought that a short opportunity to relax and drink outside and after work presented minimal extra risk of transmitting Covid. Nevertheless, such a party was against the rules at the time, and I should have stopped in and prevented it. Even though no harm came of it, I regret the decision and apologise."

    Which would have worked in December but this is a month later and Boris did everything he could to avoid saying that first time round with the drinks. Now we have more parties which seemingly Boris completely forgot to mention when he was asked about them back in December.

    On a scale of 1 to 10 the actual scandal is about a 3 (as you say it's easy to justify all the drinks outside), however, as with Watergate it's the lies and cover ups that do for you not the actual crime.
    The fundamental problem is that Boris seems to always choose to lie rather than apologize. And I guess it has worked out so far in his life (in that he has ascended to the highest office of State), so I can't see him changing.

    Will he be deposed?

    My gut still says no. I just don't see who sticks the knife in.
    My gut also. I suspect however a substantial possibility of Johnson throwing in the towel. Need to get into Johnson's brain to work out the probability of that happening. Not a place I particularly want to go. Johnson is someone who has no concept of right and wrong; truth and falsehood. All his life he's been rewarded for his mendacity. Will he be shocked by the blowback or will he see it as yet another of his many scrapes that can be got out of so easily.?
    He is truly cornered I think.

    And has trashed his brand, who wants to pay for Peppas Pig speeches or pay non-remainder prices for the memoirs?

    Carrie'll be off.
    - “Carrie'll be off.”

    Easy come, easy go.

    Boris is aiming for at least a dozen offspring. He’ll need to work through another couple of mares before he’s finished.
    The Boris family tree will be quite something by 2100.
    They’ll be increasing England’s ugly oaf quotient by a few points.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, the Downing St staff having a drink outside after work, on a day when Bournemouth beach was crowded with day-trippers, is still leading the news. I’m clearly in a small minority here, in not giving a crap. It wasn’t at the height of “don’t leave your house”, it was when parks and beaches were busy.

    So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?

    HYUFD said:
    I find it very hard to believe that Sunak did not know about these parties. Yet he said nothing. So he too is blameworthy.

    And if he is using them to become PM then that shows equal contempt for the public and makes him IMO unfit to be PM. I've never bought into the Sunak-as-saviour-story.
    It could just be "don't interrupt you enemy (rival) when he's making a mistake..."?
    I think it’s premature to convict Sunak over this too. You don’t know what he said or did at the time and the degree to which he has helped try and rectify matters since. He is for sure going to have a very difficult moment indeed during the leadership election over it but form suggests he’s smart and sincere enough to navigate it properly.

    What would you have had him do? Phone the police guard at the gates of downing st to break it up? Flounce out of the government over it and use it as lever to launch a leadership bid that summer?
    Yes. He doesn't seem the scheming sort; I expect he's just trying to keep his head down while his neighbour self-destructs.
    Really all Sunak needs to say (assuming he didn't attend any) is 'these were all within the No10 office, I wasn't really aware at the time, and all my focus and energy was on working in the Treasury and doing my job'
    "I wasn't aware"? Despite someone taking photos from the Treasury and not mentioning it at all. Despite all the hoo-ha over Cummings at the time which Sunak did comment on I seem to recall. Despite the reported arguments about whether there should be further restrictions on which Sunak had a view.

    That's a pretty Nelsonian approach and to me about as believable as Boris saying that he was shocked to learn about parties happening in the place where he lived and worked.
    Ok, instead of 'I wasn't aware', just say, my focus was on working at my department and keeping the economy going'

    It wasn't his department, and wasn't his office. I think he'll be fine (as long as nothing similar in No11).
    I have 2 friends working at the Treasury right now. They've been there throughout the pandemic. Time for a coffee, I think .......
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Looking back at Allegra Stratton answering test questions about a Christmas party:

    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-07/no-10-staff-joke-in-leaked-recording-about-christmas-party-they-later-denied

    Maybe I'm noticing something which isn't really there but the term 'socially distanced' seems to be an in joke among the Downing Street gang.

    I wonder if there might be a connection to the 'socially distanced' garden party.

    I took it as effectively knowing, and conceding, that there were no precautions at all and they were basically doing whatever they liked.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    AlistairM said:

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Because Labour would have to clean up their Brexit shit...
    No signs of Labour doing any such thing. It is the glaring gap in Starmer’s arsenal. And amazingly, Davey is missing his big opportunity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Scott_xP said:

    Keep thinking about this quote. Can't think why.
    ‘The thing about Boris Johnson is that he’s like a rat. He bumbles on amiably enough until he’s trapped. Then he’ll chew through bone, kill anyone, do anything to get free.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-is-the-ultimate-escape-artist-even-he-will-struggle-to-wriggle-out-of-this-one-989xrw7lh

    He'd surely kept Reynolds on in order to throw him under the bus when Grey reports - by raising the stakes Cummo has made sure that this avenue of retreat is now closed off, since blaming it all on the staff isn't going to wash.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    I find myself rather warming to Ms Rayner. She has a passionate energy driving her and she really seems to be enjoying herself. I admire the way she boldly ignores the rules of pronunciation and grammar, without it at all obscuring the clarity of her intended message.

    This morning on the radio she asked the simple question of Boris; "Was yer there, or was yer not?"

    Except she didn't say "was" ending in a 'z' sound. She ended them with what sounded more like a 'j' in the middle of a word. Like a Russian ж

    Woж yer there or woж yer not?

    I wonder if Starmer will ask it quite so clearly.

    I wouldn't vote for her as Labour is quite simply the party of capital but she does seem to despise tories with a genuine passion so good for her.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    I'm not a Tory member but I have generally voted Tory. I hoped Boris would win the leadership and stopping Corbyn was absolutely necessary. He got Brexit over the line so it was no longer a daily argument.

    In my lifetime I do not remember a Prime Minister in such a good position (remember Hartlepool?) trashing it in such a short space of time. It has been entirely of his own making. He has switched from being a vote winner to being a vote loser.

    Boris needs to go. Tory MPs should be sending their letters to Sir Graham Brady now if they haven't already.

    Having said that I think the next election is a good one to lose (like 1992). Losing narrowly and leaving a Labour party in power with either no majority or a small one would be a good result in the long run for the Tories.

    Thats a key point to make - Hartlepool was less than a year ago. Quite how he's managed to soil himself this much this quickly is impressive.
    Cummings gone. Cummings is also behind his downfall now.

    Because of his role in the 2016 vote, you could arguably even call it in the Cummings + Johnson premiership. No adviser has ever been that powerful, or instrumental in creating a leadership platform for the winner, in modern Britain.
    Alastair Campbell says hello!
    Nope. Campbell didn't create Blair's leadership platform. Cummings masterminded the 2016 vote, of which Johnson was the figurehead, and which brought Johnson to power.
    I think Cummings is one of the more open and honest protagonists in this. He wants Boris out because he thinks Boris is crap and Boris shouldn’t be holding the policy reigns and leadership. You could counter saying he was sacked, that’s his driver, but what I am saying probably goes back to a position Cummings came to before the sacking. And in a way Cummings is in the headspace of many backbench Tory grandee’s, that Boris would be better if his political life didn’t keep tripping over his personal life so intermingled.

    And I have made that point without any picture of a 🐿

    Oh 🤭
    That 2/1 bet of yours looks nice now. Impeccably timed.
    Thanks Kinabalu 🙂 have you seen how the Boris exit 2022 changed since Sunday? When you said go on then put a bet on I’ve made £50. So it’s a bet of yours, didn’t we jump in together?

    Did you see the wonder horse poem?
    Yes, I'm awfully glad I steered you to the bookies rather than take the other side myself. Not that a dead head shrewdie like me would have done at 2/1 of course.

    Did see the poem. Very good it was too.
    I wrote it in back of car on iPhone in about an hour. Like portrait art I believe poetry has to be written fast to capture the moment. When I have done 5 minute portraits sketches to raise money at charity events it’s been some of my best work, poetry works same way, capturing in the moment, if you play with it next day in different mood you just ruin it. 🙂
    Coming back from my holiday I was obviously in down mood, hugging imaginary loving horse and asking what is going to come of us
    I was in back after arguing with my brother about him buying peoples freeholds, so I sat in back and put suitcase in front and before we got into London even the suitcase had fallen out with him!

    wonder horse

    Written on the fly, unsullied by commercial tie or financial obligation, by Jade (2022)

    Alone in the stables, aside on your hay,
    Your body mounting above mine,
    The insatiate dance of your tail,
    Your traveled, generous thigh.
    Chestnut coat, washed first in rain,
    Blessed by sun of late.
    Finger through forest fern of mane
    From astride your strong back,
    And here there I have gone and come again.

    Sharing ginger snaps, with my hand
    I feel your neck and press my body close,
    While you turn your head around me now,
    I go in for the hug and you wrap your neck
    around, neither of us want to stop.
    Innocence yet wisdom of this close,
    Two of us carefree.
    I whisper, I wonder horse -
    What becomes of you and me.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    - “What should be really worrying is the increasing number of Tory MPs ready to make their views known.”

    Kudos to Douglas Ross MSP MP and football linesman for being the very first to break ranks yesterday. The most effective day in his political career by a country mile.

    The leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party was just as assured, persuasive and coherent as his predecessor Ruth Davidson, who actually pipped him by a couple of hours (but she’s not an MP).

    It was highly risky for Ross. Davidson cannot be sacked, but Ross can. If Johnson survives he’s history. If he goes, he’ll be a hero.

    The biggest risk though is not if Johnson goes, but when. If he’s still there in May the SCons are looking down the barrel of a thrashing in the Single Transferable Vote council elections in May. There is no FPTP incentive for Unionist-inclined SLab and SLD voters to lend their votes to the SCons, and every incentive to give The Boris Party the solid kicking they so richly deserve, with support for Brexit now sub 20% north of the border.

    So-what southern Tories might respond, but I’ll tell you what: being the first-placed Unionist party is critically important. Without those SLab and especially SLD tactical votes, all 6 SCon MPs are history. If Scottish Labour manage to build a narrative that only they can beat the SNP - which is actually true, in contrast to SCon claims - then the Tories will be back down to their core vote of 15% in no time.

    Douglas Ross doesn’t care. He’s not standing for Westminster again when the next UK GE is called, and his Holyrood seat is safe. Two jobs is probably more fun than three jobs anyway.

    Yes and him and all Scottish Tories are in hiding , even the cleaner was not available for GMS this morning.
    Where’s gormless Murdo? He’s usually good for a laugh.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Observer, does that apply to Jeremy Corbyn and Labour?
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited January 2022
    If labour force a VONC - and force tories to back Boris, I wonder if we’ll see any tory defections?

    Not impossible.

    I recon Starmer would be receptive and guarantee they’d keep their seat.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,146
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    Never heard of such a proposal, not least because Scottish voters form more like 8-9% of the UK electorate.

    As for the wider issue of principle, you do sound just like Lord Foulkes complaining that the SNP were doing the right thing "deliberately".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039

    I find myself rather warming to Ms Rayner. She has a passionate energy driving her and she really seems to be enjoying herself. I admire the way she boldly ignores the rules of pronunciation and grammar, without it at all obscuring the clarity of her intended message.

    This morning on the radio she asked the simple question of Boris; "Was yer there, or was yer not?"

    Except she didn't say "was" ending in a 'z' sound. She ended them with what sounded more like a 'j' in the middle of a word. Like a Russian ж

    Woж yer there or woж yer not?

    I wonder if Starmer will ask it quite so clearly.

    Nope.

    He would have done better to stay off ill another day and let the Salford attack dog loose on Johnson. Apart from anything else he seems to struggle more with women at the dispatch box.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    ping said:

    If labour force a VONC - and force tories to back Boris, I wonder if we’ll see any tory defections?

    Not impossible.

    I doubt it. Would seem odd for a Tory MP to vote that he/she has no confidence in him yet has not put pen to paper Brady-wise.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    Scott_xP said:

    Mood among Tory MPs worse for Number 10 than yesterday
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1481202964907843585

    They've been reading some of the emails pouring in from the public?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    3m
    Excited to to be Ilfracombe today... #PlanForJobs indeed.


    ====

    Or, "my arse" as Jim Royale would say.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Kay Burley: If he misled the House, should he resign?
    Huw Merriman MP: It just depends what's occurred.
    B: If it's proven, should he resign?
    M: I don't actually know the answer to that.
    B: The answer, as you know, is yes.
    M: If you already know the answer, why ask me?

    Wow. ~ AA
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1481206138259521536/video/1

    Surely the first law of politics is ONLY ask questions to which you already know the answer?

    I appreciate journalism is a little different, but of course you often want people to confirm what is known so they are on the hook.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039

    Gavin Barwell
    @GavinBarwell
    ·
    1h
    Not as easy as it looks for
    @Keir_Starmer
    today. The goal is so huge and so glaringly open that expectations are very high
This discussion has been closed.