Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

1235712

Comments

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Will Truss be offering support today?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    I note that the rather ludicrous attempts by a few to blame Tony Blair for the fact that Boris Johnson had an illegal party and lied about it seem to have run out of steam. They could try blaming Corbyn next?

    Talk me through that reasoning.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
  • malcolmg said:

    - “What should be really worrying is the increasing number of Tory MPs ready to make their views known.”

    Kudos to Douglas Ross MSP MP and football linesman for being the very first to break ranks yesterday. The most effective day in his political career by a country mile.

    The leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party was just as assured, persuasive and coherent as his predecessor Ruth Davidson, who actually pipped him by a couple of hours (but she’s not an MP).

    It was highly risky for Ross. Davidson cannot be sacked, but Ross can. If Johnson survives he’s history. If he goes, he’ll be a hero.

    The biggest risk though is not if Johnson goes, but when. If he’s still there in May the SCons are looking down the barrel of a thrashing in the Single Transferable Vote council elections in May. There is no FPTP incentive for Unionist-inclined SLab and SLD voters to lend their votes to the SCons, and every incentive to give The Boris Party the solid kicking they so richly deserve, with support for Brexit now sub 20% north of the border.

    So-what southern Tories might respond, but I’ll tell you what: being the first-placed Unionist party is critically important. Without those SLab and especially SLD tactical votes, all 6 SCon MPs are history. If Scottish Labour manage to build a narrative that only they can beat the SNP - which is actually true, in contrast to SCon claims - then the Tories will be back down to their core vote of 15% in no time.

    Douglas Ross doesn’t care. He’s not standing for Westminster again when the next UK GE is called, and his Holyrood seat is safe. Two jobs is probably more fun than three jobs anyway.

    Yes and him and all Scottish Tories are in hiding , even the cleaner was not available for GMS this morning.
    Where’s gormless Murdo? He’s usually good for a laugh.
    I'm old enough to remember a PBer describing Murdo's interrogation of Sturgeon during the 'Salmond' enquiry as masterly, and Jackie Baillie as a future leader of Labour.

    I really should be paying for such insights.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    I note that the rather ludicrous attempts by a few to blame Tony Blair for the fact that Boris Johnson had an illegal party and lied about it seem to have run out of steam. They could try blaming Corbyn next?

    I think we've already had that line, actually... 😂
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited January 2022

    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
    More likely in his childhood when his parents weren't there most of the time, I think - and when he moved schools about seventeen times.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
    Carrie, and only Carrie.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Wagons starting to circle a bit...

    One senior minister: "we are not going defenestrate a prime minister over the exuberance of a civil servant."

    Not sure that's a watertight defence...

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1481213673578414081
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “One thing’s for sure – there is more to come.”

    This is the killer point. As soon as Boris makes a small step forward, the ground is going to be removed from under his feet. This is fascinating to witness. Someone’s playing a blinder. Sunak? Truss? Gove? Cummings? A.N. Other?

    I suspect A.N. Other. If you’re reading this: you’re good. Very, very good. Chapeau!

    Its Cummings. The guy is a higher-level strategist. Sacked by Peppa to keep the missus happy, he knows everything because he was involved in everything. So he can choose what to release when it will do the most damage, has already assessed what Peppa will do because he knows him so well, and is sat there dropping new information at the precise time to acutely cause the most damage.
    Until this week I was going to vote for Sunak as next leader.

    However as a Tory member if Cummings keeps up with this campaign and forces Boris out I might even vote for Truss now she has said she backs a constitutional monarchy over Sunak as I do not believe Cummings should be rewarded with what he wants. Even if that makes Starmer PM
    Not a game, HYUFD. It is about the governance of the UK. You are prepared to let Starmer in and increase the odds on an indyref, just to clarify Dom's Messiah/very naughty boy status?
    If Labour want to allow an indyref2 and devomax that is their problem
    It’s the UK’s problem.
    For which Labour would be responsible. The Tories do better in England than the UK, they have no benefit by respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote. The UK does.

    If Starmer becomes PM and allows an indyref2 he will be responsible if it is lost as much as if it is won
    For many of us, the allocation of responsibility is a second order issue, to keeping the country together in the first place.
    That’s how Douglas Ross sees it. Union first, Union last. If the English Tories like Boris are intent on undermining the Union then fuck the English Tories and fuck Boris.

    Sarwar and Starmer are the beneficiaries.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    The “greased albino piglet” has wriggled free many times before. But he is cornered in a cul-de-sac and the butchers are whetting their knives.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2022/01/if-johnson-has-to-quit-is-it-best-he-does-so-quickly.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited January 2022
    I've no idea whether this will see Johnson off or not. I hope not. Much better it happens later in the year when Starmer is more the finished article.

    Cummings has his teeth into Johnson and he's made clear that's where they'll stay until he's gone. They've lived in each others pocket for over two years. He knows Johnson and his diary better than all his wives and ex's put together and he can't be bought.

    But the really bad news is that the man's something of a genius. To devise a campaign that persuaded 17,500,000 people to do something clearly against their best interest takes the art of selling onto another level. This man is not a simple Iago

    At the moment he's having fun like a cat with a bird but there's little doubt that when he chooses his moment Johnson will be gone


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986
  • OGH texted me this morning asking who the FLSOJ is?

    Awks.

    Fun loving source of joy - our beloved Prime Minister.
    It gets better, OGH is busy until later on today and has asked me to look after PB if anything major happens.

    I can relax and put on episode three of Boba Fett and not worry about politics.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Johnson’s main achievement is to have created a new political party, bearing the Conservative name, that does not believe in the sanctity of Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. That is a lasting legacy that all his potential successors are firmly bought into.

    +1
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    For comparison on political scandals, here's one in NZ at the moment:
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/deeply-inappropriate-clarke-gayford-sorry-for-confusion-after-claim-he-tried-to-get-mate-rapid-covid-test/BERMJTAVSMBW756EZLHP56PCVA/

    PM's fiancé tried to get a friend a LFT rather than a PCR. Amusing how such a seemingly trivial thing is making headlines there.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    dixiedean said:

    I note that the rather ludicrous attempts by a few to blame Tony Blair for the fact that Boris Johnson had an illegal party and lied about it seem to have run out of steam. They could try blaming Corbyn next?

    Talk me through that reasoning.
    It's Corbyn's fault for not winning the GE in 2019? If Johnson hadn't won, he wouldn't be in No. 10 so couldn't have a garden party there? Bloody Corbyn, eh.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I don't think PMQ's or the bumble beforehand will be decisive.

    Decisive has already happened in the eyes of voters. This one we will never forget or forgive.

    It's now simply a question of whether the tory MPs listen and wake up in time. They 'might' limit the damage with Rishi Sunak in charge. Otherwise they are heading for a drubbing in 2024.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    For innocents, do not google sybian, I mean I already know what it is, it is a pretty good indicator that it is not for innocent of mind.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “One thing’s for sure – there is more to come.”

    This is the killer point. As soon as Boris makes a small step forward, the ground is going to be removed from under his feet. This is fascinating to witness. Someone’s playing a blinder. Sunak? Truss? Gove? Cummings? A.N. Other?

    I suspect A.N. Other. If you’re reading this: you’re good. Very, very good. Chapeau!

    Its Cummings. The guy is a higher-level strategist. Sacked by Peppa to keep the missus happy, he knows everything because he was involved in everything. So he can choose what to release when it will do the most damage, has already assessed what Peppa will do because he knows him so well, and is sat there dropping new information at the precise time to acutely cause the most damage.
    Until this week I was going to vote for Sunak as next leader.

    However as a Tory member if Cummings keeps up with this campaign and forces Boris out I might even vote for Truss now she has said she backs a constitutional monarchy over Sunak as I do not believe Cummings should be rewarded with what he wants. Even if that makes Starmer PM
    Not a game, HYUFD. It is about the governance of the UK. You are prepared to let Starmer in and increase the odds on an indyref, just to clarify Dom's Messiah/very naughty boy status?
    If Labour want to allow an indyref2 and devomax that is their problem
    It’s the UK’s problem.
    For which Labour would be responsible. The Tories do better in England than the UK, they have no benefit by respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote. The UK does.

    If Starmer becomes PM and allows an indyref2 he will be responsible if it is lost as much as if it is won
    For many of us, the allocation of responsibility is a second order issue, to keeping the country together in the first place.
    That’s how Douglas Ross sees it. Union first, Union last. If the English Tories like Boris are intent on undermining the Union then fuck the English Tories and fuck Boris.

    Sarwar and Starmer are the beneficiaries.
    OTOH it's possible that the ScoTories might benefit locally, or that Ms Ballantyne's lot will mop up some of their votes (the Real Brexiter not Treasonous ScoTory Party).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    malcolmg said:

    - “What should be really worrying is the increasing number of Tory MPs ready to make their views known.”

    Kudos to Douglas Ross MSP MP and football linesman for being the very first to break ranks yesterday. The most effective day in his political career by a country mile.

    The leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party was just as assured, persuasive and coherent as his predecessor Ruth Davidson, who actually pipped him by a couple of hours (but she’s not an MP).

    It was highly risky for Ross. Davidson cannot be sacked, but Ross can. If Johnson survives he’s history. If he goes, he’ll be a hero.

    The biggest risk though is not if Johnson goes, but when. If he’s still there in May the SCons are looking down the barrel of a thrashing in the Single Transferable Vote council elections in May. There is no FPTP incentive for Unionist-inclined SLab and SLD voters to lend their votes to the SCons, and every incentive to give The Boris Party the solid kicking they so richly deserve, with support for Brexit now sub 20% north of the border.

    So-what southern Tories might respond, but I’ll tell you what: being the first-placed Unionist party is critically important. Without those SLab and especially SLD tactical votes, all 6 SCon MPs are history. If Scottish Labour manage to build a narrative that only they can beat the SNP - which is actually true, in contrast to SCon claims - then the Tories will be back down to their core vote of 15% in no time.

    Douglas Ross doesn’t care. He’s not standing for Westminster again when the next UK GE is called, and his Holyrood seat is safe. Two jobs is probably more fun than three jobs anyway.

    Yes and him and all Scottish Tories are in hiding , even the cleaner was not available for GMS this morning.
    Where’s gormless Murdo? He’s usually good for a laugh.
    I'm old enough to remember a PBer describing Murdo's interrogation of Sturgeon during the 'Salmond' enquiry as masterly, and Jackie Baillie as a future leader of Labour.

    I really should be paying for such insights.
    I love them both! I’m thinking of having Big Jackie as my profile pic once De Pfeffel bites the dust. But Glaikit Murdo is a strong challenger.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    Never heard of such a proposal, not least because Scottish voters form more like 8-9% of the UK electorate.

    As for the wider issue of principle, you do sound just like Lord Foulkes complaining that the SNP were doing the right thing "deliberately".
    Well, Scotland has 8-9% of UK people but, as you well know and maybe contrary to what we are somewhat told by some commentators from north of the border, the SNP does not speak for all of Scotland. So, 4-5% of MPs is about right. Which, of course, would be significantly smaller than the 45 MPs it has now.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    I've commented before on the huge success of the Covid testing programme in the UK. Another example of what a mess it is in Australia:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-12/rats-diverted-to-federal-government-amid-high-demand/100751754

    There are almost no free LFTs. What we take for granted in regularly doing LFTs is unheard of there as you have to pay for them all, that is if you can find any. Presumably they are only using them for testing if you have symptoms. A friend this morning said her son got a positive LFT this morning before school with no symptoms.

    I remember a lot of laughing late in 2020 with project "Moonshot" with a vast rapid testing programme. It seems to have almost happened though by stealth and it is ingrained in our way of life now it seems. In fact, the difficult part will now be weaning ourselves off it as Covid is now endemic.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    "Beleaguered" seems to have fallen out of the journalistic vocab. JM was beleaguered pretty much every week from 1993 on
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    Scott_xP said:

    Mood among Tory MPs worse for Number 10 than yesterday
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1481202964907843585

    There was too much in it’s in hand of opposition to finish Boris off on here last night. This is a Conservative party crisis, not a national crisis. It falls on the Conservatives to act, as Conservative MPs are the ones with the guillotine mechanism. In the meantime those on government payroll, from top down, can resign and refuse to serve Boris (anyone at all resigned yet?) The balls in court of the Tories, not parliamentary opponents.
    I think the main thing holding them back at the moment is that the main contenders want the job later rather than sooner.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “One thing’s for sure – there is more to come.”

    This is the killer point. As soon as Boris makes a small step forward, the ground is going to be removed from under his feet. This is fascinating to witness. Someone’s playing a blinder. Sunak? Truss? Gove? Cummings? A.N. Other?

    I suspect A.N. Other. If you’re reading this: you’re good. Very, very good. Chapeau!

    Its Cummings. The guy is a higher-level strategist. Sacked by Peppa to keep the missus happy, he knows everything because he was involved in everything. So he can choose what to release when it will do the most damage, has already assessed what Peppa will do because he knows him so well, and is sat there dropping new information at the precise time to acutely cause the most damage.
    Until this week I was going to vote for Sunak as next leader.

    However as a Tory member if Cummings keeps up with this campaign and forces Boris out I might even vote for Truss now she has said she backs a constitutional monarchy over Sunak as I do not believe Cummings should be rewarded with what he wants. Even if that makes Starmer PM
    Not a game, HYUFD. It is about the governance of the UK. You are prepared to let Starmer in and increase the odds on an indyref, just to clarify Dom's Messiah/very naughty boy status?
    If Labour want to allow an indyref2 and devomax that is their problem
    It’s the UK’s problem.
    For which Labour would be responsible. The Tories do better in England than the UK, they have no benefit by respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote. The UK does.

    If Starmer becomes PM and allows an indyref2 he will be responsible if it is lost as much as if it is won
    For many of us, the allocation of responsibility is a second order issue, to keeping the country together in the first place.
    That’s how Douglas Ross sees it. Union first, Union last. If the English Tories like Boris are intent on undermining the Union then fuck the English Tories and fuck Boris.

    Sarwar and Starmer are the beneficiaries.
    OTOH it's possible that the ScoTories might benefit locally, or that Ms Ballantyne's lot will mop up some of their votes (the Real Brexiter not Treasonous ScoTory Party).
    That might have been true if there was any Scottish media left, but it is all foreign owned and run nowadays. The focus is solely on Westminster, not Ms Bannatyne (who?) and assorted SCon nonentities.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2022
    The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.

    England's population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.....

    Over the 25-year period between mid-2020 and mid-2045, England is projected to have the largest increase in population, at 6.7%. The projected increase over the same period for Wales is 4.2% and for Northern Ireland it is 2.3%. Scotland is projected to see a decrease of 1.5% over this time.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425


    Gavin Barwell
    @GavinBarwell
    ·
    1h
    Not as easy as it looks for
    @Keir_Starmer
    today. The goal is so huge and so glaringly open that expectations are very high

    Yes. Many will not be satisfied if PMQs doesn't end with Johnson loaded onto a hurdle for the journey to Tyburn.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I'm still frankly incredulous at how BJ has screwed up his premiership.

    Obviously I loathe the man but plenty of people liked him. They don't anymore. It's just astonishing how quickly he fell from grace.

    I guess it was covid. I mean, I know he would have been unmasked eventually. It's clear (to me) that Brexit is a dud but we can argue the toss over that one. Other things might have eventually found him out but he's such a slippery customer, who knows? Maybe he'd have lasted 10 years or so?

    In two years covid has destroyed him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    Underlining how dignified Sunak is.

    I think TMay has queered the "Look at me, I'm a woman like Maggie was" pitch for Truss, thankfully.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
    Because MPs might have very strong preferences about who replaces him, and don't want to risk getting the one they don't want if the timing is wrong?
  • AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
    There's no way it can be short and sharp.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
    On a serious note. The vaccination effort has proved that the numbers for the UK population we have, are wrong.

    Going by the official population figures, portions of Scotland have vaccinated 106% (and like numbers) of the available people of age X.

    Maybe Scotland is a *bigger* part of the union than previously thought :-)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    kamski said:

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
    Because MPs might have very strong preferences about who replaces him, and don't want to risk getting the one they don't want if the timing is wrong?
    Surely it's blindingly obvious that it has to be Sunak?

    As someone leftie he's the one I'd most fear in 2024.

    Liz Truss would result in a Labour landslide.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited January 2022
    Based on conversations with my other half and colleagues, Boris Johnson and everyone in Downing Street should resign and be imprisoned for serving and drinking (Tesco) rosé.

    Apparently for connoisseurs of alcohol/people with good taste it is the equivalent of drinking lighter fluid.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
    More likely in his childhood when his parents weren't there most of the time, I think - and when he moved schools about seventeen times.
    Aha. Didn’t know that.

    You’ve managed to induce a previously unknown emotion for me: sympathy for Alexander Johnson. The child, not the adult.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Wagons starting to circle a bit...

    One senior minister: "we are not going defenestrate a prime minister over the exuberance of a civil servant."

    Not sure that's a watertight defence...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Heathener said:

    kamski said:

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
    Because MPs might have very strong preferences about who replaces him, and don't want to risk getting the one they don't want if the timing is wrong?
    Surely it's blindingly obvious that it has to be Sunak?

    As someone leftie he's the one I'd most fear in 2024.

    Liz Truss would result in a Labour landslide.
    That and they want to make sure that whoever they put in is not going to be bogged down in exactly the same scandals.

    Hence my asking about Sunak and Truss with respect to lockdown parties at the office etc, the yesterday - if either of them nibbled a cracker, then there is a serious betting opportunity there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    "I went to a party in my own garden by mistake"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Wagons starting to circle a bit...

    One senior minister: "we are not going defenestrate a prime minister over the exuberance of a civil servant."

    Not sure that's a watertight defence...

    Chances of that civil servant having orchestrated party off own bat: zero
    Chances he can prove this: non-zero.
  • "I went to a party in my own garden by mistake"

    Up there with I accidentally had sexual relations with that women when I slipped and fell penis first into her.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Wagons starting to circle a bit...

    One senior minister: "we are not going defenestrate a prime minister over the exuberance of a civil servant."

    Not sure that's a watertight defence...

    It shows there are still two trains of thought

    1) Get rid of him now
    2) let him cop the blame for the next few months than pretend all the pain was his fault.

    I can see very much why 2 is the preferred option, the surprise is that the option seems to be disappearing.

    In fact this is classic Boris, the cabinet are delaying things until there is only 1 inevitable choice left to make..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
    There's no way it can be short and sharp.
    Unless the party in Westminster settles on a single member of the Cabinet to take over.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    Underlining how dignified Sunak is.

    I think TMay has queered the "Look at me, I'm a woman like Maggie was" pitch for Truss, thankfully.
    I like Truss. She has spunk. My kind of Tory.

    Can’t imagine Liz saying “Fuck business!”

    However, she’s a very English type of gal. Scottish Tory ladies tend towards more of the Auntie Goldie matronly end of the spectrum. Much less fun.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Heathener said:

    kamski said:

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
    Because MPs might have very strong preferences about who replaces him, and don't want to risk getting the one they don't want if the timing is wrong?
    Surely it's blindingly obvious that it has to be Sunak?

    As someone leftie he's the one I'd most fear in 2024.

    Liz Truss would result in a Labour landslide.
    That and they want to make sure that whoever they put in is not going to be bogged down in exactly the same scandals.

    Hence my asking about Sunak and Truss with respect to lockdown parties at the office etc, the yesterday - if either of them nibbled a cracker, then there is a serious betting opportunity there.
    Truss seems to think she is clean. A story was leaked a bit ago, prob. by her, of treasury drinks after an autumn statement or some such.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Roger said:

    I've no idea whether this will see Johnson off or not. I hope not. Much better it happens later in the year when Starmer is more the finished article.

    Cummings has his teeth into Johnson and he's made clear that's where they'll stay until he's gone. They've lived in each others pocket for over two years. He knows Johnson and his diary better than all his wives and ex's put together and he can't be bought.

    But the really bad news is that the man's something of a genius. To devise a campaign that persuaded 17,500,000 people to do something clearly against their best interest takes the art of selling onto another level. This man is not a simple Iago

    At the moment he's having fun like a cat with a bird but there's little doubt that when he chooses his moment Johnson will be gone


    You're right, this is awesome manipulation of politics and the media by DC.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    For innocents, do not google sybian, I mean I already know what it is, it is a pretty good indicator that it is not for innocent of mind.
    Wasn't it an operating system on a psion?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,691

    Based on conversations with my other half and colleagues, Boris Johnson and everyone in Downing Street should resign and be imprisoned for serving and drinking (Tesco) rosé.

    Apparently for connoisseurs of alcohol/people with good taste it is the equivalent of drinking lighter fluid.

    The only thing worse than Apple fans are Tesla fans. And the only thing worse than Tesla fans are wine snobs ;)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Heathener said:

    I'm still frankly incredulous at how BJ has screwed up his premiership.

    Obviously I loathe the man but plenty of people liked him. They don't anymore. It's just astonishing how quickly he fell from grace.

    I guess it was covid. I mean, I know he would have been unmasked eventually. It's clear (to me) that Brexit is a dud but we can argue the toss over that one. Other things might have eventually found him out but he's such a slippery customer, who knows? Maybe he'd have lasted 10 years or so?

    In two years covid has destroyed him.

    Absolutely right, and it's difficult to see what he could have done differently to avoid it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    For innocents, do not google sybian, I mean I already know what it is, it is a pretty good indicator that it is not for innocent of mind.
    Wasn't it an operating system on a psion?
    That was Symbian...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    "I went to a party in my own garden by mistake"

    A classic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
    On a serious note. The vaccination effort has proved that the numbers for the UK population we have, are wrong.

    Going by the official population figures, portions of Scotland have vaccinated 106% (and like numbers) of the available people of age X.

    Maybe Scotland is a *bigger* part of the union than previously thought :-)
    Perfectly possible. The population of Scotland declined from 1975 but then started growing steadily about 2007 or so. We can correlate that with changes in government ... and it's ten years since the 2010 census.

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-future-opportunities-challenges-scotlands-changing-population/pages/4/
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Farooq said:

    Selebian said:

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
    I think he's just taking a purist position on what makes a true Scot, like a Scot-supremacist HYUFD. Maybe only SNP voters are true Scots, that would get somewhere close to 4%, would it not?
    Yes, I suppose it would. The consequences of such a view would also be a very easy Yes majority.
    Tut Tut @Farooq, you need to pay a bit more attention if you are going to be a smart arse especially given your track record.

    The 4% referred to the SNP's share of MPs, so around their share of polling nationally.

    Scotland is 8-9% of the electorate as @Carnyx pointed out.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    For innocents, do not google sybian, I mean I already know what it is, it is a pretty good indicator that it is not for innocent of mind.
    Wasn't it an operating system on a psion?
    The was Symbian.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    You've got quite a collection ......

    (A chacun son gout)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Wagons starting to circle a bit...

    One senior minister: "we are not going defenestrate a prime minister over the exuberance of a civil servant."

    Not sure that's a watertight defence...

    Yeah, this isn't the end of Johnson by a long chalk.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Possibly the most unbias indicator of Covid prevalence, virus present in sewage water is showing a sharp rise and fall in Boston

    https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1481057526980489226/photo/1
  • Based on conversations with my other half and colleagues, Boris Johnson and everyone in Downing Street should resign and be imprisoned for serving and drinking (Tesco) rosé.

    Apparently for connoisseurs of alcohol/people with good taste it is the equivalent of drinking lighter fluid.

    The only thing worse than Apple fans are Tesla fans. And the only thing worse than Tesla fans are wine snobs ;)
    As a good and devout Muslim this is one of those conversations I'm not qualified to participate in.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
    Carrie, and only Carrie.
    Shame Carrie is neither an elected politician nor a civil servant. The governance of the UK is undemocratic and unaccountable.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    Never heard of such a proposal, not least because Scottish voters form more like 8-9% of the UK electorate.

    As for the wider issue of principle, you do sound just like Lord Foulkes complaining that the SNP were doing the right thing "deliberately".
    Well, Scotland has 8-9% of UK people but, as you well know and maybe contrary to what we are somewhat told by some commentators from north of the border, the SNP does not speak for all of Scotland. So, 4-5% of MPs is about right. Which, of course, would be significantly smaller than the 45 MPs it has now.
    But of course. That's the entire basis of PR. YOu referred, however, to Scotland, not the SNP, unless you think that only SNP MPs are somehow qualified to represent Scotland?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    Selebian said:

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    What is this 4% of the whole UK of which you speak?
    Mr Ed thinks the population of the UK is 110 million.
    To be fair, he's right if you count Sean's alter egos.
    I think he's just taking a purist position on what makes a true Scot, like a Scot-supremacist HYUFD. Maybe only SNP voters are true Scots, that would get somewhere close to 4%, would it not?
    Yes, I suppose it would. The consequences of such a view would also be a very easy Yes majority.
    Tut Tut @Farooq, you need to pay a bit more attention if you are going to be a smart arse especially given your track record.

    The 4% referred to the SNP's share of MPs, so around their share of polling nationally.

    Scotland is 8-9% of the electorate as @Carnyx pointed out.
    Actually, apologies @Farooq - that comment should have been directed at @Theuniondivvie. I should have guessed...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.

    England's population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.....

    Over the 25-year period between mid-2020 and mid-2045, England is projected to have the largest increase in population, at 6.7%. The projected increase over the same period for Wales is 4.2% and for Northern Ireland it is 2.3%. Scotland is projected to see a decrease of 1.5% over this time.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim

    And that's why Scotland receives more funding per capita despite the attempt by the Barnett Formula to redress the balance.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.

    England's population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.....

    Over the 25-year period between mid-2020 and mid-2045, England is projected to have the largest increase in population, at 6.7%. The projected increase over the same period for Wales is 4.2% and for Northern Ireland it is 2.3%. Scotland is projected to see a decrease of 1.5% over this time.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim

    And that's why Scotland receives more funding per capita despite the attempt by the Barnett Formula to redress the balance.
    See my posting. Population is going up in Scotland.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    Never heard of such a proposal, not least because Scottish voters form more like 8-9% of the UK electorate.

    As for the wider issue of principle, you do sound just like Lord Foulkes complaining that the SNP were doing the right thing "deliberately".
    Well, Scotland has 8-9% of UK people but, as you well know and maybe contrary to what we are somewhat told by some commentators from north of the border, the SNP does not speak for all of Scotland. So, 4-5% of MPs is about right. Which, of course, would be significantly smaller than the 45 MPs it has now.
    But of course. That's the entire basis of PR.
    Indeed. And, it may be that the SNP is prepared to accept PR and see its seats fall by a 1/3 in support of a principle, which would be admirable. However, fact remains that, if PR comes in, having 30 MPs gives you a lot more bargaining power than their 45 MPs do.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    @TSE be on standby having to explain to OGH what a "sybian" is
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    edited January 2022

    Based on conversations with my other half and colleagues, Boris Johnson and everyone in Downing Street should resign and be imprisoned for serving and drinking (Tesco) rosé.

    Apparently for connoisseurs of alcohol/people with good taste it is the equivalent of drinking lighter fluid.

    The only thing worse than Apple fans are Tesla fans. And the only thing worse than Tesla fans are wine snobs ;)
    So worse^3 would be a wine snob posting wine snobbery on his/her iPhone* from a Tesla. While using FSD... ?

    The best wine in the world is the one *you* like drinking.

    *With the stupid "from an iPhone" thing left turned on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Johnson now leads a zombie government, that much is now clear. The critical question for the Tories is can a new leader recover what has been so needlessly squandered? The problem now is that any in the current cabinet can be guilty by association. However, the old Tories and the ERG lack power to defeat each other. So the new leader will face a mutinous and chaotic party caucus at just the time that they need discipline and focus. In that sense Johnson has remade the party in his own image, and if he goes I'm not at all sure the Tories can avoid a profound split. In the same way that widening the franchise did for the Old Liberal Party in the 1920s under somewhat similar circumstances, I think PR could well do the same for the Conservatives a century later. A century of Tory dominance may finally be drawing to a close.

    PR of course kills off any chance of a Labour majority government ever again.

    Corbynites break away and form their own party as the ERG would break away and join RefUK and also win seats under PR.

    PR kills the 2 main parties as current and majority governments, its main beneficiaries the LDs who would nearly always be in power and smaller parties like ReformUK and the Greens. It also hits the SNP at Westminster
    Indeed, but the SNP are in favour of PR at Westminster. It's called strange things, 'principle' and 'good of the country'.
    Because it leads to weak UK Governments and, like the LDs, the SNP would also have a role to play. I'm assuming that the SNP would have a PR adjustment so that Scotland's 'special position' would be taken into account as opposed to being 4% of the whole UK?
    Never heard of such a proposal, not least because Scottish voters form more like 8-9% of the UK electorate.

    As for the wider issue of principle, you do sound just like Lord Foulkes complaining that the SNP were doing the right thing "deliberately".
    Well, Scotland has 8-9% of UK people but, as you well know and maybe contrary to what we are somewhat told by some commentators from north of the border, the SNP does not speak for all of Scotland. So, 4-5% of MPs is about right. Which, of course, would be significantly smaller than the 45 MPs it has now.
    But of course. That's the entire basis of PR.
    Indeed. And, it may be that the SNP is prepared to accept PR and see its seats fall by a 1/3 in support of a principle, which would be admirable. However, fact remains that, if PR comes in, having 30 MPs gives you a lot more bargaining power than their 45 MPs do.
    And we are at the Foulkesian stage again. SNP get blamed for doing the right thing just because it's not the Unionist thing ...

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/letters/diary-2508490
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Heathener said:

    kamski said:

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A 2019 Tory MP texted me this about Boris Johnson this morning: 🧵

    “It’s clear it’s all over. Just a matter of time. Colleagues have got to decide whether it’s going to be long and painful, or short and sharp. [1/3]

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1481214226287017986

    Exactly
    It is surely in the Tory party's interest for it to be short and sharp. Why drag it out?
    Because MPs might have very strong preferences about who replaces him, and don't want to risk getting the one they don't want if the timing is wrong?
    Surely it's blindingly obvious that it has to be Sunak?

    As someone leftie he's the one I'd most fear in 2024.

    Liz Truss would result in a Labour landslide.
    I know Liz Truss has polled badly, and Sunak clearly has built a savvy media team, but I have a sense that Truss is the only potential replacement for Johnson who has the required chutzpah that is necessary for turning this Tory government around.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,691

    Based on conversations with my other half and colleagues, Boris Johnson and everyone in Downing Street should resign and be imprisoned for serving and drinking (Tesco) rosé.

    Apparently for connoisseurs of alcohol/people with good taste it is the equivalent of drinking lighter fluid.

    The only thing worse than Apple fans are Tesla fans. And the only thing worse than Tesla fans are wine snobs ;)
    As a good and devout Muslim this is one of those conversations I'm not qualified to participate in.
    Just as long as you don't boost Star Citizen. ;)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    Heathener said:

    I'm still frankly incredulous at how BJ has screwed up his premiership.

    It is only incredulous if somehow you had never heard of Boris Johnson and his previous escapades. He is performing just as poorly as his many critics predicted he would. Of course the die-hard right wing of the Tory party thought they knew better and that electing a lying lazy scruffy adulterous nincompoop was just what the country needed. They are almost as idiotic as the PM.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Based on conversations with my other half and colleagues, Boris Johnson and everyone in Downing Street should resign and be imprisoned for serving and drinking (Tesco) rosé.

    Apparently for connoisseurs of alcohol/people with good taste it is the equivalent of drinking lighter fluid.

    You serious? You mean there's posher drinks than

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/306802015

    ?

    Bugger, I serve it at all my soirees. Complements the Ferrero Rocher.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited January 2022
    Makeup of the population increase for the UK - More deaths than births.

    6.6 million people will be born
    6.7 million people will die
    5.6 million people will immigrate long-term to the UK
    3.4 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited January 2022
    AlistairM said:

    ...I remember a lot of laughing late in 2020 with project "Moonshot" with a vast rapid testing programme. It seems to have almost happened though by stealth and it is ingrained in our way of life now it seems. In fact, the difficult part will now be weaning ourselves off it as Covid is now endemic.

    Most of that laughing was over the spin.
    It wasn't a 'moonshot', given it was fairly clear from summer 2020 that LFTs were an effective health tool, and were available off the shelf from China (which is where they're still coming from, via a US middleman). And the cost is a fraction of the £100bn that was nonsensically talked about at the time.

    Though you're right - a lot of countries have done far worse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    Ride 'em cowgirl!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “One thing’s for sure – there is more to come.”

    This is the killer point. As soon as Boris makes a small step forward, the ground is going to be removed from under his feet. This is fascinating to witness. Someone’s playing a blinder. Sunak? Truss? Gove? Cummings? A.N. Other?

    I suspect A.N. Other. If you’re reading this: you’re good. Very, very good. Chapeau!

    Its Cummings. The guy is a higher-level strategist. Sacked by Peppa to keep the missus happy, he knows everything because he was involved in everything. So he can choose what to release when it will do the most damage, has already assessed what Peppa will do because he knows him so well, and is sat there dropping new information at the precise time to acutely cause the most damage.
    Until this week I was going to vote for Sunak as next leader.

    However as a Tory member if Cummings keeps up with this campaign and forces Boris out I might even vote for Truss now she has said she backs a constitutional monarchy over Sunak as I do not believe Cummings should be rewarded with what he wants. Even if that makes Starmer PM
    Not a game, HYUFD. It is about the governance of the UK. You are prepared to let Starmer in and increase the odds on an indyref, just to clarify Dom's Messiah/very naughty boy status?
    If Labour want to allow an indyref2 and devomax that is their problem
    It’s the UK’s problem.
    For which Labour would be responsible. The Tories do better in England than the UK, they have no benefit by respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote. The UK does.

    If Starmer becomes PM and allows an indyref2 he will be responsible if it is lost as much as if it is won
    For many of us, the allocation of responsibility is a second order issue, to keeping the country together in the first place.
    That’s how Douglas Ross sees it. Union first, Union last. If the English Tories like Boris are intent on undermining the Union then fuck the English Tories and fuck Boris.

    Sarwar and Starmer are the beneficiaries.
    Is Sarwar still in the country, sightings are rarer than Dodo's.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
    Carrie, and only Carrie.
    Shame Carrie is neither an elected politician nor a civil servant. The governance of the UK is undemocratic and unaccountable.
    Carrie is without doubt the biggest issue here - she shouldn't be having any say in anything yet she's managed to get herself into the heart of politics via Boris's trousers..
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Carnyx said:

    The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.

    England's population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.....

    Over the 25-year period between mid-2020 and mid-2045, England is projected to have the largest increase in population, at 6.7%. The projected increase over the same period for Wales is 4.2% and for Northern Ireland it is 2.3%. Scotland is projected to see a decrease of 1.5% over this time.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim

    And that's why Scotland receives more funding per capita despite the attempt by the Barnett Formula to redress the balance.
    See my posting. Population is going up in Scotland.
    If it's going up more slowly than England's then my point still applies.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    For innocents, do not google sybian, I mean I already know what it is, it is a pretty good indicator that it is not for innocent of mind.
    It's amazing what you learn in your compliance role.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's by the way hear it for @Tissue_Price. The 13 refuseniks on the Paterson vote are the only 13 clean skins on the tory benches, and he was the most outspoken of them. Rare coincidence of morally right, and brilliant careerwise. I'd have a flutter on him to lead the party by say 2035.

    Not likely. Back to being a bookie in 2024.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited January 2022
    Little did I ever imagine that PB would become a Liz Truss soft porn platform ..;.)

    No doubt the authorities will be around soon to issue on-the-spot fines.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's by the way hear it for @Tissue_Price. The 13 refuseniks on the Paterson vote are the only 13 clean skins on the tory benches, and he was the most outspoken of them. Rare coincidence of morally right, and brilliant careerwise. I'd have a flutter on him to lead the party by say 2035.

    Problem is I think he will need to find a proper job come the next election and I suspect he will be dealing with a labour lead local authority come May.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    BREAK - High court rules govt’s use of “VIP lane” to give contracts for supply of PPE to two companies during first wave of pandemic was unlawful
    https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1481222816477417472
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    IshmaelZ said:

    "Beleaguered" seems to have fallen out of the journalistic vocab. JM was beleaguered pretty much every week from 1993 on

    It implies problems arising from outside sources beyond one's control.
    Therefore of little use for this PM.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Why can't Boris just take a leaf out of Jokeovic's book?
    "Somebody else made a mistake and I didn't know at the time and I didn't want to disappoint people."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
    Carrie, and only Carrie.
    Shame Carrie is neither an elected politician nor a civil servant. The governance of the UK is undemocratic and unaccountable.
    Carrie is without doubt the biggest issue here - she shouldn't be having any say in anything yet she's managed to get herself into the heart of politics via Boris's trousers..
    Bit unfair. Plenty of hereditary peers who got there via dad's trousers (one hopes).
  • I quite like these pictures of Liz Truss that DA produces. It's good to see a politician genuinely looking as if they're having a good time.

    We all talk about the negatives of being a politician: the hard life, living your life under a microscope; the effect it has on their family. But there must be times when they get to do things which few of us ever do.

    She's having fun. That's cool.

    She's definitely having a good time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    I quite like these pictures of Liz Truss that DA produces. It's good to see a politician genuinely looking as if they're having a good time.

    We all talk about the negatives of being a politician: the hard life, living your life under a microscope; the effect it has on their family. But there must be times when they get to do things which few of us ever do.

    She's having fun. That's cool.

    Reminds me of Ruth Davidson of old. And Boris Johnson ditto.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAK - High court rules govt’s use of “VIP lane” to give contracts for supply of PPE to two companies during first wave of pandemic was unlawful
    https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1481222816477417472

    https://goodlawproject.org/update/high-court-vip-lane-ppe-unlawful/
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Just imagine, LOTO Jezza would be getting prepared to ask six questions on the bedroom tax right now...

    Monica from High Wycombe asks....
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will Truss be offering support today?

    She's turned the Sybian up to 11 and she's never been more ready to be PM of the United Kingdom of Global Britain and the Six Counties.


    For innocents, do not google sybian, I mean I already know what it is, it is a pretty good indicator that it is not for innocent of mind.
    SoP: If beyond Wikipedia's remit. always prefix your Google search with 'Urban Dictionary'.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,691
    Carnyx said:

    I quite like these pictures of Liz Truss that DA produces. It's good to see a politician genuinely looking as if they're having a good time.

    We all talk about the negatives of being a politician: the hard life, living your life under a microscope; the effect it has on their family. But there must be times when they get to do things which few of us ever do.

    She's having fun. That's cool.

    Reminds me of Ruth Davidson of old. And Boris Johnson ditto.
    I misread that as 'Boris Johnson dildo'.

    Which when combined with the first sentence leads to quite mind-boggling images...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Lots of debate here about whether Johnson will walk or be pushed. I doubt he’ll walk, he’ll believe this is all a triviality and will have convinced himself (with the help of his wife, unless I misjudge her) that he’s done nothing wrong and has been making noble sacrifices for the good of the nation.

    So who delivers the whisky bottle and revolver. I doubt it’s Cabinet collectively, as most are supine and will lose their jobs once he goes. He has few trusted political advisors left, Cain, Frost, Cummings, Lister etc… all gone.

    It can’t be someone in the running to take his job. But needs to be someone he trusts and who hasn’t so far been a vocal opponent. Someone who retains something of the old fashioned view of how things ought to be done. Don’t scoff at the back, but if he’s going to go without the humiliation of the letters, it will be Rees Mogg that talks him into it.

    Good post. Thought provoking. Who does Boris respect and listen to? Apart from the wee devil Boris on his shoulder. Shame the wee saint Boris was murdered back at Eton.
    Carrie, and only Carrie.
    Shame Carrie is neither an elected politician nor a civil servant. The governance of the UK is undemocratic and unaccountable.
    Carrie is without doubt the biggest issue here - she shouldn't be having any say in anything yet she's managed to get herself into the heart of politics via Boris's trousers..
    How do you stop this though? Insist that future PM's must be single? I have no doubt other spouses have had input into government policy, even if only by being used as a sounding board. Frankly I think having a spousal input is generally a good thing.

    If you want to get rid of Carrie, there is a pathway - get rid of Johnson.
This discussion has been closed.