Excellent reverse ferret thread here. Now the lockdown pushers' scientific claims are in tatters, the new line is that we must consider shutting down society, to prevent the risk of society shutting down.
Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.
Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.
Top man!!!
On manouevres.
Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.
If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
Had Burnham beaten Corbyn for the Labour leadership in 2015 he might well have won most seats against May at the next general election and then become PM in a hung parliament.
Labour's electing Corbyn as their leader in 2015 probably cost them at least an extra term out of power
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.
There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!
So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.
The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.
There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
My vote for Labour is dependant on a commitment to see through (and better) the Tory levelling up promises.
Austria has just tightened travel restrictions from Britain, Denmark, Norway and (I think) the Netherlands. You now need to be boosted and have a PCR to avoid quarantine. I can see my 1 January holiday slipping away - I'm boosted and lucky enough to be able to afford a PCR but wouldn't want to bet on them not changing the rules again in the next week.
Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.
Isn't the Russian meaning of 'levelling' rather more sinister than ours ?
Putin used the verb 'повышать' which means to enhance or elevate but he said it in his weird half German accent. We're now into arse licking questions from the fourth estate. Can't tell if Leon is there.
He also looks old and fucked. Not as old and fucked as Johnson though.
The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.
Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.
It feels a bit like Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1981 when everyone was convinced she was about to be forced out of office by riots, recession, strikes, unemployment, etc.
No doubt had PB been around at the time we would have had OGH doing threads about how the Tories needed to ditch Thatcher for Francis Pym to stay in office otherwise Roy Jenkins would become PM of an SDP led government
I wonder what quiet negotiations Ms Truss' department is involved in which will encourage some foreign government, needing positive publicity, to make a grab for British territory? And which member of our government will realise what is happening, blow the whistle and cause said foreign government to act prematurely? Would we go to war for Northern Ireland?
Well it wouldn't take as long to send the task force if Northern Ireland was invaded!
True; however with 50% of the population (near enough) giving comfort and aid to the other side......
Data from @OpenTableUK show the seven-day average estimate of UK seated diners fell 14 percentage points in the week to 20 Dec 2021, to 88% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
Constitutional changes very rarely get reversed in this country.
In fact, I can't think of an example of any. And joining the EEC and leaving the EU doesn't count - because we didn't get a democratic choice for joining the latter......
I know this will anger the c. 10% of Britons who are apoplectic about Brexit, but from what I can see they're relishing their anger. I suspect they'll never get over it.
I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.
There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!
So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.
The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.
There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
My vote for Labour is dependant on a commitment to see through (and better) the Tory levelling up promises.
That’s fair. If people just return to them in their droves they won’t get anything for their votes.
Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.
Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.
Top man!!!
On manouevres.
Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.
If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
Had Burnham beaten Corbyn for the Labour leadership in 2015 he might well have won most seats against May at the next general election and then become PM in a hung parliament.
Labour's electing Corbyn as their leader in 2015 probably cost them at least an extra term out of power
If Burnham hadn't lost the leadership election though, he wouldn't have become the improved politician he is today. That's the problem with these counterfactuals.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.
Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.
Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.
Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.
You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
Actually the rage against the Tories is so strong now, it kind of *is* enough. People vote for positive and negative reasons. I would say that at least half the voters make their choice to vote against something, rather than for something. It is the major feature of FPTP. You want more positive votes, then change the voting system to make sure they count.
Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.
Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.
Top man!!!
On manouevres.
Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.
If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
I thought he was poor as a minister. And quite a volte-face from someone who until now was always calling for more restrictions, not fewer. I would be much less supportive of a Labour party led by him rather than Starmer.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
Constitutional changes very rarely get reversed in this country.
In fact, I can't think of an example of any. And joining the EEC and leaving the EU doesn't count - because we didn't get a democratic choice for joining the latter......
I know this will anger the c. 10% of Britons who are apoplectic about Brexit, but from what I can see they're relishing their anger. I suspect they'll never get over it.
While we didn't get a vote on the upgrading of the EC we did on the basic principle, back in 1975. And a much better conducted debate it was, with a very much bigger vote for joining.
And while I wouldn't say I was 'angry' I hope, even at my advanced age, to see us rejoin.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
He will get VONC if he tries to lockdown with stats like that.
Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.
Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.
Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.
Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.
You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
Actually the rage against the Tories is so strong now, it kind of *is* enough. People vot for positive and negative reasons. I would say that at leasthalf the voters make their choice to vote against something, rather than for something. It is the major feature of FPTP. You want more positive votes, then change the voting system to make sure they count.
Its midterms with such "rage" and yet most polls are worse for Labour than they were in 2014.
If your view was correct, surely Labour would be doing better now (or the Tories worse) than they we saw under Miliband and Cameron?
People are quite rightly unhappy with Boris, but they're also quite rightly not impressed with Starmer. What a shame that again the Opposition has chosen yet another dud just like they did at the last two elections, we need a credible Opposition this isn't healthy.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
On Monday, the day Boris tried to cancel xmas, there were fewer people in hospital for covid than the week before!
Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.
Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.
Top man!!!
On manouevres.
Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.
If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
I thought he was poor as a minister. And quite a volte-face from someone who until now was always calling for more restrictions, not fewer. I would be much less supportive of a Labour party led by him rather than Starmer.
In fairness to Burnham, he was one of the few figures in Labour not calling for more restrictions in Autumn 2020, and argued with his own leadership on the subject. He did argue against freedom day, though, and is an enthusiastic masker. But he is significantly less useless on the subject than Starmer, and has on balance been more pro-freedom than Boris over the course of the pandemic.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.
Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.
Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.
Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.
You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
Actually the rage against the Tories is so strong now, it kind of *is* enough. People vote for positive and negative reasons. I would say that at least half the voters make their choice to vote against something, rather than for something. It is the major feature of FPTP. You want more positive votes, then change the voting system to make sure they count.
At the moment Tories are losing more voters from 2019 to don’t know/will not vote than to labour. That may change. I don’t think it’s enough and I hope labour are not complacent enough to think that as it may come to bite them.
The anger is mainly focussed on Johnson. A change of leader or a more steady approach could see this dissipate. Get through Covid get through the next difficult 12 months and if things turn around after that it could be a different matter.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
He will get VONC if he tries to lockdown with stats like that.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.
Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.
It feels a bit like Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1981 when everyone was convinced she was about to be forced out of office by riots, recession, strikes, unemployment, etc.
No doubt had PB been around at the time we would have had OGH doing threads about how the Tories needed to ditch Thatcher for Francis Pym to stay in office otherwise Roy Jenkins would become PM of an SDP led government
To twist a phrase, Boris Johnson is no Margaret Thatcher
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
I have repeatedly been one of the most doveish people on here regards omicron but there could still be a wave of hospitalisations in January though unlikely anything close to what we saw last year. Is that a reason to be bringing in restrictions?
My guess is that the experts aren't expecting 4000 a day admissions either. But how will the NHS cope with 1000? As a society we need to be thinking pretty hard about our public services if we can't handle that kind of wave without restricting people's behaviour.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
And likely 4k of those were anti-vaxxers.
So they wanted to shut down Christmas to protect a few thousand antivaxxers.
The Zoe Covid study team says there has been an "explosion" of cases. They estimate around 144,000 people a day are catching and then feeling somewhat unwell with the virus.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
You have gone back to speaking in certainties again old chap. There are no certainties. The only reason rejoin at this precise time cannot get more than 50% is because people like me who think that Brexit was pointless and dumb, but that the pain of rejoining (even if "they" would let us) is equally not worth yet more division and pain. \in another 10 or 20 years time the world will once again be different. The EU will have different leaders and so will we. Hopefully we will have a PM that doesn't make us look like an international laughing stock.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
Only about 200 of those are people being treated for Omicron according to the latest official figures, despite the fact that Omicron has mostly displaced Delta as the main variant in the UK.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
I have repeatedly been one of the most doveish people on here regards omicron but there could still be a wave of hospitalisations in January though unlikely anything close to what we saw last year. Is that a reason to be bringing in restrictions?
My guess is that the experts aren't expecting 4000 a day admissions either. But how will the NHS cope with 1000? As a society we need to be thinking pretty hard about our public services if we can't handle that kind of wave without restricting people's behaviour.
The NHS averages 40k all cause admissions a day. 1k for covid would be far less than the usual winter flu 'crisis'
Q1 last year saw the lowest level of NHS bed occupation in history, by an absolute mile - we're a long way past this being about legitimate resource management.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
Yes, your self proclaimed objectivity and open mind is certainly one for the history books. Although I think we all new it was always a bit of a story.
You’ll exert precisely zero pressure on Boris by complaining on PB, but supporting the government. If I were Boris, I would stick you firmly in the blue column and raise a wry smile when you rediscover your enthusiasm come polling day.
Nationwide, on Tuesday there were only 4,432 people in English hospitals being treated primarily for covid, and this figure was only up 1% on the prior week.
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
Only about 200 of those are people being treated for Omicron according to the latest official figures, despite the fact that Omicron has mostly displaced Delta as the main variant in the UK.
Yep, and with the London spike in the cases from the 13th, infections were spiking from the 11th at the latest. By the 21st of December there should have been a strong signal of a problem if we were going to get anywhere near even the bottom of the SAGE ranges.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.
Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.
Top man!!!
On manouevres.
Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.
If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
I thought he was poor as a minister. And quite a volte-face from someone who until now was always calling for more restrictions, not fewer. I would be much less supportive of a Labour party led by him rather than Starmer.
In fairness to Burnham, he was one of the few figures in Labour not calling for more restrictions in Autumn 2020, and argued with his own leadership on the subject. He did argue against freedom day, though, and is an enthusiastic masker. But he is significantly less useless on the subject than Starmer, and has on balance been more pro-freedom than Boris over the course of the pandemic.
Thanks for the correction - down here in London I don't necessarily pick up on everything he says
On the topic of making vaccination more routine, my GP clinic nonchalantly invited me to an anti-shingles jab this week, as part of a campaign to vaccinate people in the 70-80 range - exactly as though nothing else much was happening. So at least that GP doesn't seem to be swamped.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
So, do you see yourself a) holding your nose and voting Tory? b) Voting for a Tory who will VONC an election-winning PM? c) Voting Lib Dem d) Not voting?
Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.
Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.
Top man!!!
On manouevres.
Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.
If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
I thought he was poor as a minister. And quite a volte-face from someone who until now was always calling for more restrictions, not fewer. I would be much less supportive of a Labour party led by him rather than Starmer.
In fairness to Burnham, he was one of the few figures in Labour not calling for more restrictions in Autumn 2020, and argued with his own leadership on the subject. He did argue against freedom day, though, and is an enthusiastic masker. But he is significantly less useless on the subject than Starmer, and has on balance been more pro-freedom than Boris over the course of the pandemic.
One thing impossible to avoid from the 5 weeks I've spent in the NW in the past couple of months is Andy Burnham. He is, quite literally, on the local news almost daily commenting or doing something or other. I don't think folk outside the area realise just what a dominant personality he is in the region. In the same way I don't think Londoners realise Khan isn't a national figure. He has taken the role of Mayor and defined it. He is probably solely responsible for Labour VI having held up so well in the NW.
On the topic of making vaccination more routine, my GP clinic nonchalantly invited me to an anti-shingles jab this week, as part of a campaign to vaccinate people in the 70-80 range - exactly as though nothing else much was happening. So at least that GP doesn't seem to be swamped.
Surgery here refers all enquiries for Covid to the official website. I don't think staff have done any Covid vaccinations.
Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.
Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.
Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.
Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.
You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
Actually the rage against the Tories is so strong now, it kind of *is* enough. People vot for positive and negative reasons. I would say that at leasthalf the voters make their choice to vote against something, rather than for something. It is the major feature of FPTP. You want more positive votes, then change the voting system to make sure they count.
Its midterms with such "rage" and yet most polls are worse for Labour than they were in 2014.
If your view was correct, surely Labour would be doing better now (or the Tories worse) than they we saw under Miliband and Cameron?
People are quite rightly unhappy with Boris, but they're also quite rightly not impressed with Starmer. What a shame that again the Opposition has chosen yet another dud just like they did at the last two elections, we need a credible Opposition this isn't healthy.
It's Lazarus! I thought you'd gone. Hallelujah Bartholomew
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
So, do you see yourself a) holding your nose and voting Tory? b) Voting for a Tory who will VONC an election-winning PM? c) Voting Lib Dem d) Not voting?
If Boris Johnson is still leader I will hold my nose and vote LD. My constituency MP is OK but will not VONC the Clown. Not voting is a never a good option so far as I am concerned as it makes it look like you are part of "don't know"
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
Yes, your self proclaimed objectivity and open mind is certainly one for the history books. Although I think we all new it was always a bit of a story.
You’ll exert precisely zero pressure on Boris by complaining on PB, but supporting the government. If I were Boris, I would stick you firmly in the blue column and raise a wry smile when you rediscover your enthusiasm come polling day.
ISTM that posting here is a displacement activity for actually doing something.
Well we're past the point where it's credible now - this is just faith seeking justification. London true hospitalisations up such a paltry amount 10 days on from the infection spike, so even those who think South Africa are tin pot liars can just use English data if they like.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Using that argument, by voting Conservative, you have to endorse a whole load of swivel-eyed loons on the Tory benches.
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.
Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.
Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.
Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.
You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
Actually the rage against the Tories is so strong now, it kind of *is* enough. People vot for positive and negative reasons. I would say that at leasthalf the voters make their choice to vote against something, rather than for something. It is the major feature of FPTP. You want more positive votes, then change the voting system to make sure they count.
Its midterms with such "rage" and yet most polls are worse for Labour than they were in 2014.
If your view was correct, surely Labour would be doing better now (or the Tories worse) than they we saw under Miliband and Cameron?
People are quite rightly unhappy with Boris, but they're also quite rightly not impressed with Starmer. What a shame that again the Opposition has chosen yet another dud just like they did at the last two elections, we need a credible Opposition this isn't healthy.
It's Lazarus! I thought you'd gone. Hallelujah Bartholomew
Since his sudden conversion to Bozo scepticism I thought he should change his name to Volte Face
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
So, do you see yourself a) holding your nose and voting Tory? b) Voting for a Tory who will VONC an election-winning PM? c) Voting Lib Dem d) Not voting?
If Boris Johnson is still leader I will hold my nose and vote LD. My constituency MP is OK but will not VONC the Clown. Not voting is a never a good option so far as I am concerned as it makes it look like you are part of "don't know"
Honesty is always the best policy. Agree about not voting. Thanks, and have a good Christmas.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
Yes, your self proclaimed objectivity and open mind is certainly one for the history books. Although I think we all new it was always a bit of a story.
You’ll exert precisely zero pressure on Boris by complaining on PB, but supporting the government. If I were Boris, I would stick you firmly in the blue column and raise a wry smile when you rediscover your enthusiasm come polling day.
ISTM that posting here is a displacement activity for actually doing something.
Definitely. I’ve certainly been guilty of that over the years.
I haven’t seen any really good analysis of the runners and riders to replace Boris, ie with an informed understanding of the selectorate(s).
Both parliamentary party and membership are notably more rabid than even five years ago. For that reason, I can’t see Hunt or Tugendhat putting up a credible bid.
Mordaunt is too junior. Patel too hated, and thought incompetent. Gove alienates the public. Raab too. It’s not clear that Wallace wants it.
That leaves Truss, Rishi, Harper, and Javid as the only serious possibilities in my view.
But then it gets hard. I think if Truss gets through to the membership, she gets it, but I can’t read the internal party dynamics.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
So, do you see yourself a) holding your nose and voting Tory? b) Voting for a Tory who will VONC an election-winning PM? c) Voting Lib Dem d) Not voting?
If Boris Johnson is still leader I will hold my nose and vote LD. My constituency MP is OK but will not VONC the Clown. Not voting is a never a good option so far as I am concerned as it makes it look like you are part of "don't know"
The best option from your perspective, could make Davey Kingmaker in which case Starmer likely becomes PM anyway but no Labour majority
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Using that argument, by voting Conservative, you have to endorse a whole load of swivel-eyed loons on the Tory benches.
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
Those swivel eyed loons just saved Christmas and have seen off any potential panic lockdowns in England.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Rejoin is on 49% just 1% above the 48% who voted Remain in 2016 so in reality little change
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
It's probably a function of this being a betting site but I think on COVID many posters are too obsessed with stats and not how people actually perceive the illness. You can talk about mildness and hospitalisations all you want but a lot of people don't consider a week of feeling like death 'mild' and won't forgive a government who do nothing to prevent it. Never mind that businesses will be in real trouble if a large chunk of the population are just ill enough to miss a week's work. It was always ridiculous for the government to say that their COVID policy wasn't influenced by politics because of course it has to be. Not in the ideological sense but in having to deal with how the electorate perceive reality. It's like trying to tell some Tory voters that statistically illegal immigration is entirely insignificant. It doesn't matter because that's not how they perceive it
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
The pressure is similar in effect to my complaining that Labour needs more interesting policies. Starmer knows perfectly well that leftists like me will vote Labour in the end anyway, so he needn't bother to take account of my whingeing. I'm afraid that you will similarly be shrugged off by Tory strategists. They will take more interest in people like Nigel Foreman who say they might possibly vote Labour if...
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
So, do you see yourself a) holding your nose and voting Tory? b) Voting for a Tory who will VONC an election-winning PM? c) Voting Lib Dem d) Not voting?
If Boris Johnson is still leader I will hold my nose and vote LD. My constituency MP is OK but will not VONC the Clown. Not voting is a never a good option so far as I am concerned as it makes it look like you are part of "don't know"
The best option from your perspective, could make Davey Kingmaker in which case Starmer likely becomes PM anyway but no Labour majority
That could be a reasonable outcome. It would hopefully mean the Conservative Party gets its house back in order to be a serious party of government again, and perhaps a weak Labour government might not be too damaging to things I believe in
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
You have gone back to speaking in certainties again old chap. There are no certainties. The only reason rejoin at this precise time cannot get more than 50% is because people like me who think that Brexit was pointless and dumb, but that the pain of rejoining (even if "they" would let us) is equally not worth yet more division and pain. \in another 10 or 20 years time the world will once again be different. The EU will have different leaders and so will we. Hopefully we will have a PM that doesn't make us look like an international laughing stock.
Never been a fan of the argument that "they" wouldn't let us rejoin as it seems ridiculous.
It tries to make the point that the UK is and deserves to be a pariah state for daring to leave the EU in a democratic vote and as such shouldn't be allowed to rejoin a club of other democracies.
Of course we can argue forever about the way the referendum was run but it was on the whole a free and fair vote with a high turnout. Meanwhile, Poland and Hungary trounce all over democratic values inside the EU and the rest of the bloc seems determined to tip toe around their actions.
So, should the UK apply to rejoin and be rejected, it would just show that the EU isn't serious about the values it claims to be the guardian of.
However, as you said, it's not something that's going to happen for a number of years and I would certainly vote to stay out for the foreseeable future having voted to remain in 2016, although you never know what will happen.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
So, do you see yourself a) holding your nose and voting Tory? b) Voting for a Tory who will VONC an election-winning PM? c) Voting Lib Dem d) Not voting?
If Boris Johnson is still leader I will hold my nose and vote LD. My constituency MP is OK but will not VONC the Clown. Not voting is a never a good option so far as I am concerned as it makes it look like you are part of "don't know"
Honesty is always the best policy. Agree about not voting. Thanks, and have a good Christmas.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
You'll threaten not to wave flags when he drives through Llandudno?
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
You'll threaten not to wave flags when he drives through Llandudno?
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Rejoin is on 49% just 1% above the 48% who voted Remain in 2016 so in reality little change
@Stuartinromford has a good post on this; just below yours I think.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Rejoin is on 49% just 1% above the 48% who voted Remain in 2016 so in reality little change
Not when you consider that one is a much more dramatic proposition than the other. That’s actually a significant shift.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The thing is, that it’s not something that can just be ‘reversed’ back to the status quo ante. The accession process takes years, and would require a level of integration much further than was the case in the organisation we left.
Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.
Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.
Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.
Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.
You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
Actually the rage against the Tories is so strong now, it kind of *is* enough. People vote for positive and negative reasons. I would say that at least half the voters make their choice to vote against something, rather than for something. It is the major feature of FPTP. You want more positive votes, then change the voting system to make sure they count.
At the moment Tories are losing more voters from 2019 to don’t know/will not vote than to labour. That may change. I don’t think it’s enough and I hope labour are not complacent enough to think that as it may come to bite them.
The anger is mainly focussed on Johnson. A change of leader or a more steady approach could see this dissipate. Get through Covid get through the next difficult 12 months and if things turn around after that it could be a different matter.
Well that Bull case is rather undermined by a) the speed and momentum of the Tory poll collapse and b) the dispropetional fall in marginal seats. Perhaps not yet a time for Tory panic, but the party is on thin ice if it tries to pull off another John Major style leadership coup.
So we know there's no chance of anything happening now with cabinet until at least Wednesday and a vote potentially on Thursday or Friday if cabinet agrees anything. That takes us to next week's incidental/non-incidental hospitalisations report. If it's anything like this week then I can't see how lockdown goes ahead at all. We'll just cough our way through January and get on with life.
Well done to @kinabalu who called it and has been very relaxed about no lockdowns. I really thought the lockdown ultras would get their one final wish to extinguish socialising and fun. It seems not.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
You overlook the clear failure of the case for the Hard Brexit that the Tories are still trying to enact.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
We're used to it with our voting system I'm afraid. A majority continually voted against Thatcher and Blair. Didn't stop them reigning supreme for a decade each.
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If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Using that argument, by voting Conservative, you have to endorse a whole load of swivel-eyed loons on the Tory benches.
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
A fair comment, though when I was a Tory activist and voter I knew that the swivel-eyed loons were very much in the minority. They are now not so, and we have a man who is totally unfit for office as leader. If the Tories kick out the clown and someone sensible takes over and Rees Mogg is returned to back benches then I could return to voting for them. If Labour do a really good job in convincing me that the Corbynites are emasculated and Rayner is nowhere near power I could seriously consider voting for them. My little vote (and possibly quite a few others) is genuinely "floating"
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
You'll threaten not to wave flags when he drives through Llandudno?
I think it's more lying on the ground so Mr J has something to step down onto from his car. That's the trouble with being a reliable Tory voter (or indeed of any party) - one ends up being the carpet, taken for granted.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
"The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ... 🤔"
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Gender is permissible. (After all, some of us have no discernible gender.) But identity? No.
When does Drakeford reverse ferret on restrictions in Wales?
He won't, as was pointed out last night. He'll just call Westminster irresponsible and hope no one notices that England is getting on fine in January without those idiotic restrictions.
So we know there's no chance of anything happening now with cabinet until at least Wednesday and a vote potentially on Thursday or Friday if cabinet agrees anything. That takes us to next week's incidental/non-incidental hospitalisations report. If it's anything like this week then I can't see how lockdown goes ahead at all. We'll just cough our way through January and get on with life.
Well done to @kinabalu who called it and has been very relaxed about no lockdowns. I really thought the lockdown ultras would get their one final wish to extinguish socialising and fun. It seems not.
They've still managed to wreck my plans for next week though due to Sturgeon's inability to wait and see
Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.
Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.
Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.
Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.
You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
Actually the rage against the Tories is so strong now, it kind of *is* enough. People vote for positive and negative reasons. I would say that at least half the voters make their choice to vote against something, rather than for something. It is the major feature of FPTP. You want more positive votes, then change the voting system to make sure they count.
At the moment Tories are losing more voters from 2019 to don’t know/will not vote than to labour. That may change. I don’t think it’s enough and I hope labour are not complacent enough to think that as it may come to bite them.
The anger is mainly focussed on Johnson. A change of leader or a more steady approach could see this dissipate. Get through Covid get through the next difficult 12 months and if things turn around after that it could be a different matter.
Well that Bull case is rather undermined by a) the speed and momentum of the Tory poll collapse and b) the dispropetional fall in marginal seats. Perhaps not yet a time for Tory panic, but the party is on thin ice if it tries to pull off another John Major style leadership coup.
The point of my final paragraph is that it is not time for the Tories to panic. It is not irredeemable in my view. It is a scenario. I am not saying it is going to happen but they could be in a different place.
Labour have yet to seal the deal.
I do think much of the anger is focussed on Johnson specifically as well.
Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.
Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.
Top man!!!
On manouevres.
Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.
If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
I thought he was poor as a minister. And quite a volte-face from someone who until now was always calling for more restrictions, not fewer. I would be much less supportive of a Labour party led by him rather than Starmer.
In fairness to Burnham, he was one of the few figures in Labour not calling for more restrictions in Autumn 2020, and argued with his own leadership on the subject. He did argue against freedom day, though, and is an enthusiastic masker. But he is significantly less useless on the subject than Starmer, and has on balance been more pro-freedom than Boris over the course of the pandemic.
One thing impossible to avoid from the 5 weeks I've spent in the NW in the past couple of months is Andy Burnham. He is, quite literally, on the local news almost daily commenting or doing something or other. I don't think folk outside the area realise just what a dominant personality he is in the region. In the same way I don't think Londoners realise Khan isn't a national figure. He has taken the role of Mayor and defined it. He is probably solely responsible for Labour VI having held up so well in the NW.
He's a bit too 'Matt Hancock' to be leader but he's great at getting publicity and could help get Labour elected if he'd return to Parliament and be given a prominent shadow cabinet position.
Comments
Excellent reverse ferret thread here. Now the lockdown pushers' scientific claims are in tatters, the new line is that we must consider shutting down society, to prevent the risk of society shutting down.
Labour's electing Corbyn as their leader in 2015 probably cost them at least an extra term out of power
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
He also looks old and fucked. Not as old and fucked as Johnson though.
Bad news. We’re now getting the bill for the failed energy suppliers;
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/energy-suppliers-granted-1-8-171359925.html
The reports are that London hospitality has been wiped out this last week.
If so most other places must be near normal.
Headline London beds occupied by covid figure on 21st - 1,904 up 41% in a week
How many patients were actually there for covid - 1197 up 24% in a week
The daily released hospital stats are bogus and the situation is much better than presented.
In fact, I can't think of an example of any. And joining the EEC and leaving the EU doesn't count - because we didn't get a democratic choice for joining the latter......
I know this will anger the c. 10% of Britons who are apoplectic about Brexit, but from what I can see they're relishing their anger. I suspect they'll never get over it.
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
This whole thing is an utter storm in a tea cup. 3 days ago Boris made a genuine attempt to get Christmas cancelled over this horseshit. Thank goodness he was stopped.
And while I wouldn't say I was 'angry' I hope, even at my advanced age, to see us rejoin.
If your view was correct, surely Labour would be doing better now (or the Tories worse) than they we saw under Miliband and Cameron?
People are quite rightly unhappy with Boris, but they're also quite rightly not impressed with Starmer. What a shame that again the Opposition has chosen yet another dud just like they did at the last two elections, we need a credible Opposition this isn't healthy.
How is this not a scandal?
He did argue against freedom day, though, and is an enthusiastic masker.
But he is significantly less useless on the subject than Starmer, and has on balance been more pro-freedom than Boris over the course of the pandemic.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
The anger is mainly focussed on Johnson. A change of leader or a more steady approach could see this dissipate. Get through Covid get through the next difficult 12 months and if things turn around after that it could be a different matter.
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
My guess is that the experts aren't expecting 4000 a day admissions either. But how will the NHS cope with 1000? As a society we need to be thinking pretty hard about our public services if we can't handle that kind of wave without restricting people's behaviour.
So they wanted to shut down Christmas to protect a few thousand antivaxxers.
The Zoe Covid study team says there has been an "explosion" of cases. They estimate around 144,000 people a day are catching and then feeling somewhat unwell with the virus.
Q1 last year saw the lowest level of NHS bed occupation in history, by an absolute mile - we're a long way past this being about legitimate resource management.
You’ll exert precisely zero pressure on Boris by complaining on PB, but supporting the government. If I were Boris, I would stick you firmly in the blue column and raise a wry smile when you rediscover your enthusiasm come polling day.
And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
https://twitter.com/steve4good/status/1473671625052766214?s=20
https://go.pardot.com/webmail/509131/857446775/c6b3ba6eb7f1f7122e1db8c788c0a32548f06577393f574ca4ccbf016518b77b
On the topic of making vaccination more routine, my GP clinic nonchalantly invited me to an anti-shingles jab this week, as part of a campaign to vaccinate people in the 70-80 range - exactly as though nothing else much was happening. So at least that GP doesn't seem to be swamped.
a) holding your nose and voting Tory?
b) Voting for a Tory who will VONC an election-winning PM?
c) Voting Lib Dem
d) Not voting?
He is, quite literally, on the local news almost daily commenting or doing something or other. I don't think folk outside the area realise just what a dominant personality he is in the region. In the same way I don't think Londoners realise Khan isn't a national figure.
He has taken the role of Mayor and defined it.
He is probably solely responsible for Labour VI having held up so well in the NW.
BBC News - Covid: Ministers watch data as studies say Omicron risk lower
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59765030
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
Both parliamentary party and membership are notably more rabid than even five years ago. For that reason, I can’t see Hunt or Tugendhat putting up a credible bid.
Mordaunt is too junior. Patel too hated, and thought incompetent. Gove alienates the public. Raab too. It’s not clear that Wallace wants it.
That leaves Truss, Rishi, Harper, and Javid as the only serious possibilities in my view.
But then it gets hard.
I think if Truss gets through to the membership, she gets it, but I can’t read the internal party dynamics.
Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
It tries to make the point that the UK is and deserves to be a pariah state for daring to leave the EU in a democratic vote and as such shouldn't be allowed to rejoin a club of other democracies.
Of course we can argue forever about the way the referendum was run but it was on the whole a free and fair vote with a high turnout. Meanwhile, Poland and Hungary trounce all over democratic values inside the EU and the rest of the bloc seems determined to tip toe around their actions.
So, should the UK apply to rejoin and be rejected, it would just show that the EU isn't serious about the values it claims to be the guardian of.
However, as you said, it's not something that's going to happen for a number of years and I would certainly vote to stay out for the foreseeable future having voted to remain in 2016, although you never know what will happen.
Well done to @kinabalu who called it and has been very relaxed about no lockdowns. I really thought the lockdown ultras would get their one final wish to extinguish socialising and fun. It seems not.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
A majority continually voted against Thatcher and Blair. Didn't stop them reigning supreme for a decade each.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1473966761347272708?t=ZfXVd7n_DaZASFrb1sqe6w&s=19
Labour have yet to seal the deal.
I do think much of the anger is focussed on Johnson specifically as well.