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The Red Wall seems to have swung most against Boris – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    England and Scotland third dose to go

    11.5 million remaining

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Case Summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Deaths

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited December 2021

    Competition News:

    The prize for best estimate of the highest daily Booster count will be a copy of The Prime Ministers by Iain Dale, signed by the author with a dedication to the competition winner.

    https://www.politicos.co.uk/products/the-prime-ministers

    The stewards have looked at the issue of entrants changing their identity mid-competition and have decided that, so long as the intention is not to defraud the competition, entries will roll over from old ID to new.

    Boosters reported today: 840,038
    Highest Boosters to date: 968,665 (22/12)
    Nearest estimate: @Northern_Al 963,451
    Next nearest: @MattW (986,000)

    Nice prize - wish I had entered now.

    I posted this link earlier but given that the book is the prize if you want it and have already lost and I suspect if you aren't called @Northern_Al you've lost - the book is available on the kindle today for 99p

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B082FX8LL5/ref=s9_acsd_hps_bw_c2_x_1_i?pf_rd_m=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE&pf_rd_s=merchandised-search-8&pf_rd_r=KYERWB0TKT35KCRNT6WK&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1cc59f7d-3720-49d0-9ca3-6d0922bceae9&pf_rd_i=341677031
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    I would have thought that Plaid would have been far too left-wing for you!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Regional cases

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  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Alistair said:

    maaarsh said:

    Another new record low for ventilator beds since October.

    Due to a processing delay, the update does not include new healthcare data for England. Data will be added later.
    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

    It's available here, just before 4pm, as usual.

    The file also gives the real admissions number (excluding transfers who have already been in hospital for a full week with something else before getting an incidental covid infection) rather than the padded one the Covid dashboard uses.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Regional hospitalisation

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  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    DavidL said:

    Loved this in The Guardian’s list of the year’s 50 best tv shows:

    37.
    Blair and Brown: The New Labour Revolution
    (BBC Two)

    … It is an inside job, with Labour veterans as unreliable narrators. Brown’s speechwriter Douglas Alexander even says: “They were literally the Lennon and McCartney of British politics.” Rubbish. They were more like Wham!, with no George Michael and two Andrew Ridgeleys.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/dec/03/the-50-best-tv-shows-of-2021

    The best political programme of the last decade IMHO
    That surely has to be Cumberbatch's Brexit. Took the piss out of everybody quite brilliantly.
    For me the best political history programme of the last decade (it was made in 1998 but I only saw it for the first time a couple of years ago) was the Secret History on the Winter of Discontent. Sheds a lot of light on the episode which determined the fate of British politics, economics and society for at least a decade to come, and still influences it to this day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYWsUXQrLYw
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    They used be known as green Tories. Now confirmed by the only Tory in Aberystwyth.
  • @Richard_Tyndall I consider Labour to be working well, if you are considering, or might vote for them. That is a good mark of success, IMHO
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    They used be known as green Tories. Now confirmed by the only Tory in Aberystwyth.
    Most of the ones I knew at college at the other end of Ceredigion seemed to be slightly to the left of the CPSU.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet



    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    London admissions only up 6 on yesterday for the dodgy headline measure, but down 7 for actual admissions. Should be rising aggressively for us to get anywhere near the bottom of SAGE's scenario ranges.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Still on 7, Malmesbury? I was expecting a downgrade for OMICRON THE MEREST OF SNIFFLES.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Then you must resign the Tory Party immediately, you are not a true Tory voter
    That does rather destroy his persistent denial of the legitimacy of independence for Scotland, if he voted for Welsh independence. I mean, Henry VIII owned the bloody place.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Falls off chair in amazement!

    You do know that because of our bonkers voting system you could have prevented one or more of the Tories winning by doing that. If it can be avoided you always need an exactly full slate of candidates (which can a bugger for Indies) as if spare votes go to alternatives it can mean the alternatives can overtake your preferred candidates if enough do it. It is a common problem with FPTP with multiple positions where the least preferred candidate in you list overtakes your preferred candidates by scooping up the votes from those who have spare vote to cast.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited December 2021
    .
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    They used be known as green Tories. Now confirmed by the only Tory in Aberystwyth.
    Most of the ones I knew at college at the other end of Ceredigion seemed to be slightly to the left of the CPSU.
    A vote for Plaid often let in the Tory candidate was the view of Old Labour in Wales. Plaid tended in the 60s and 70s to be middle class academics with names like Ffred Ffrancis. Ffs!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    Just watch the Trump clip. He's going to run, and he's going to win.

    He has far, far more energy than Biden.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited December 2021

    .

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    They used be known as green Tories. Now confirmed by the only Tory in Aberystwyth.
    Most of the ones I knew at college at the other end of Ceredigion seemed to be slightly to the left of the CPSU.
    A vote for Plaid often let in the Tory candidate was the view of Old Labour in Wales. Plaid tended in the 60s and 70s to be middle class academics with names like Ffred Ffrancis. Ffs!
    Research collaborator of mine was at Aber around that time. I heard a few stories about that sort of thing, though in this case I presume Dr Francis as was had simply transliterated his name into Welsh orthography as a matter of courtesy.

    PS And also - surely FFransis to be more correct orthographically. *checks* Yes, and also Gwynfor Evans's s-in-law.
  • DavidL said:

    Loved this in The Guardian’s list of the year’s 50 best tv shows:

    37.
    Blair and Brown: The New Labour Revolution
    (BBC Two)

    … It is an inside job, with Labour veterans as unreliable narrators. Brown’s speechwriter Douglas Alexander even says: “They were literally the Lennon and McCartney of British politics.” Rubbish. They were more like Wham!, with no George Michael and two Andrew Ridgeleys.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/dec/03/the-50-best-tv-shows-of-2021

    The best political programme of the last decade IMHO
    That surely has to be Cumberbatch's Brexit. Took the piss out of everybody quite brilliantly.
    His portrayal of Dom was actually rather generous in retrospect.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Eabhal said:

    Just watch the Trump clip. He's going to run, and he's going to win.

    He has far, far more energy than Biden.

    Don't think US democracy would survive another Trump term.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Falls off chair in amazement!

    You do know that because of our bonkers voting system you could have prevented one or more of the Tories winning by doing that. If it can be avoided you always need an exactly full slate of candidates (which can a bugger for Indies) as if spare votes go to alternatives it can mean the alternatives can overtake your preferred candidates if enough do it. It is a common problem with FPTP with multiple positions where the least preferred candidate in you list overtakes your preferred candidates by scooping up the votes from those who have spare vote to cast.
    It was the radical young student Hyufd. Just a sepia tinged memory now.
  • COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image

    Mr Morden was responsible for my favourite ever scene in B5.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWE43m9SL4I
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kinabalu said:

    Still on 7, Malmesbury? I was expecting a downgrade for OMICRON THE MEREST OF SNIFFLES.

    I am looking at the data, not what you want to see in the data.

    The non-London regions are still climbing, though R is reducing. The question where they will peak, for the older groups. Which equals hospitalisations and deaths.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited December 2021
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Falls off chair in amazement!

    You do know that because of our bonkers voting system you could have prevented one or more of the Tories winning by doing that. If it can be avoided you always need an exactly full slate of candidates (which can a bugger for Indies) as if spare votes go to alternatives it can mean the alternatives can overtake your preferred candidates if enough do it. It is a common problem with FPTP with multiple positions where the least preferred candidate in you list overtakes your preferred candidates by scooping up the votes from those who have spare vote to cast.
    It was the radical young student Hyufd. Just a sepia tinged memory now.
    One wonders how many holiday cottages he accounted for, or is that just a canard perpetrated by cruel Tories on the innocent activist denizens of the sheep-moors?

    Edit: Just for avoidance of any doubt: that is IRONIC and NOT MEANT SERIOUSLY. That time of year after all.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,178
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:


    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Has the U.K. got rid of “droit de suite” or the necessity to apply VAT to renovations yet?

    They were about the only thing that annoyed me about cumbersome EU regulation.

    Frustratingly we set up our own artist resale right scheme. Madness. I think keeping it was in the withdrawal treaty too.

    VAT is now an entirely domestic tax, however, and we can do with it what we like.
    Yep. Waiting for the govt to zero rate VAT on domestic fuel supplies.
    With 40% price increases arriving a 5% cut isn't going to solve anything nor be noticed with gratitude.
    I think they will tweak the mechanism in March, or Jan/Feb is Boris has been dumped by then.
    Doubt it - and if you wish to tweak it, it's best to get Boris to cop the blame.
    Do you think that energy bills will be allowed to jump by 40% or so, which aiui is the logic of the algorithm?

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/12/martin-lewis--even-the-cheapest-deals-are-more-than-double-than-/
    Trouble is, how does the government dodge this particular bullet? They can't make suppliers sell at a loss for prolonged periods, and the cost has risen so much that even if they jettison VAT on fuel and all the various bits of green nonsense its still going to go up an awful lot, and people will be really cheesed off.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited December 2021

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image

    Mr Morden was responsible for my favourite ever scene in B5.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWE43m9SL4I
    Though some might argue it was the a cynical Parthian Shot from the Shadows. Vir gets his wish, but as a result (partly) the Shadows and their allies rain destruction on Centauri Prime, including the slow death of his friend and mentor.

    "My associates always keep their promises".....
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image

    What was it that Vir Cotto said of Mr Morden? That some things come at too high of a price. This is the way I feel about more lockdowns to protect anti vaxxers.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Eabhal said:

    Just watch the Trump clip. He's going to run, and he's going to win.

    He has far, far more energy than Biden.

    A hibernating tortoise has more energy than Biden.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    Still on 7, Malmesbury? I was expecting a downgrade for OMICRON THE MEREST OF SNIFFLES.

    I am looking at the data, not what you want to see in the data.

    The non-London regions are still climbing, though R is reducing. The question where they will peak, for the older groups. Which equals hospitalisations and deaths.
    No, I think you're right. Lockdown is off but we're still looking at a bleak winter for the NHS.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kyf_100 said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image

    What was it that Vir Cotto said of Mr Morden? That some things come at too high of a price. This is the way I feel about more lockdowns to protect anti vaxxers.
    Mr Modern was a brilliant creation. A guy in a suit who could make drinking tea sinister. Who represented a billion year old civilisation....

    The Trickster/Tempter archetype from the ancient religions - he always delivered. At the price of your soul....
  • maaarsh said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet



    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    London admissions only up 6 on yesterday for the dodgy headline measure, but down 7 for actual admissions. Should be rising aggressively for us to get anywhere near the bottom of SAGE's scenario ranges.
    SAGE are a disaster for the country- Johnson had the good sense to ignore the more extreme measures unlike Sturgeon and especially Drakeford with his ridiculous one way system in supermarkets etc
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Falls off chair in amazement!

    You do know that because of our bonkers voting system you could have prevented one or more of the Tories winning by doing that. If it can be avoided you always need an exactly full slate of candidates (which can a bugger for Indies) as if spare votes go to alternatives it can mean the alternatives can overtake your preferred candidates if enough do it. It is a common problem with FPTP with multiple positions where the least preferred candidate in you list overtakes your preferred candidates by scooping up the votes from those who have spare vote to cast.
    To be fair, our colleague did say it was a straight fight between Llafur and Plaid
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    kyf_100 said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image

    What was it that Vir Cotto said of Mr Morden? That some things come at too high of a price. This is the way I feel about more lockdowns to protect anti vaxxers.
    Mr Modern was a brilliant creation. A guy in a suit who could make drinking tea sinister. Who represented a billion year old civilisation....

    The Trickster/Tempter archetype from the ancient religions - he always delivered. At the price of your soul....
    I always felt that him returning to warn Lennier in the Day of the Dead episode in season 5 made him more chaotic neutral than chaotic evil.

    I don't think he actually believed in the Shadows' philosophy. He was just a man in a nice suit sent out to sell the vision. He'd have made a great marketing consultant...
  • Are there any genuine anti capitalism folks on PB
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    edited December 2021
    theProle said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:


    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Has the U.K. got rid of “droit de suite” or the necessity to apply VAT to renovations yet?

    They were about the only thing that annoyed me about cumbersome EU regulation.

    Frustratingly we set up our own artist resale right scheme. Madness. I think keeping it was in the withdrawal treaty too.

    VAT is now an entirely domestic tax, however, and we can do with it what we like.
    Yep. Waiting for the govt to zero rate VAT on domestic fuel supplies.
    With 40% price increases arriving a 5% cut isn't going to solve anything nor be noticed with gratitude.
    I think they will tweak the mechanism in March, or Jan/Feb is Boris has been dumped by then.
    Doubt it - and if you wish to tweak it, it's best to get Boris to cop the blame.
    Do you think that energy bills will be allowed to jump by 40% or so, which aiui is the logic of the algorithm?

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/12/martin-lewis--even-the-cheapest-deals-are-more-than-double-than-/
    Trouble is, how does the government dodge this particular bullet? They can't make suppliers sell at a loss for prolonged periods, and the cost has risen so much that even if they jettison VAT on fuel and all the various bits of green nonsense its still going to go up an awful lot, and people will be really cheesed off.
    Negative VAT rate? Be a better use of money than 90% of the stuff it spends money on
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    edited December 2021

    Are there any genuine anti capitalism folks on PB

    I am in the sense of preferring cooperatives (worker or consumer depending on the sector) but also hate state socialism . i dont think land should be privately owned to charge a rent on it in a ideal world .Also dont believe in inheritance although concede it is hard to tax
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image

    What was it that Vir Cotto said of Mr Morden? That some things come at too high of a price. This is the way I feel about more lockdowns to protect anti vaxxers.
    Mr Modern was a brilliant creation. A guy in a suit who could make drinking tea sinister. Who represented a billion year old civilisation....

    The Trickster/Tempter archetype from the ancient religions - he always delivered. At the price of your soul....
    I always felt that him returning to warn Lennier in the Day of the Dead episode in season 5 made him more chaotic neutral than chaotic evil.

    I don't think he actually believed in the Shadows' philosophy. He was just a man in a nice suit sent out to sell the vision. He'd have made a great marketing consultant...
    Then you end up with people arguing that the Shadows were Chaotic Neutral or even Chaotic Good.

    The warning (if it wasn't just a dream) was perfectly in line with the Shadow habit of telling the truth in ways that just make the actual happening even more bitter.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    theProle said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:


    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Has the U.K. got rid of “droit de suite” or the necessity to apply VAT to renovations yet?

    They were about the only thing that annoyed me about cumbersome EU regulation.

    Frustratingly we set up our own artist resale right scheme. Madness. I think keeping it was in the withdrawal treaty too.

    VAT is now an entirely domestic tax, however, and we can do with it what we like.
    Yep. Waiting for the govt to zero rate VAT on domestic fuel supplies.
    With 40% price increases arriving a 5% cut isn't going to solve anything nor be noticed with gratitude.
    I think they will tweak the mechanism in March, or Jan/Feb is Boris has been dumped by then.
    Doubt it - and if you wish to tweak it, it's best to get Boris to cop the blame.
    Do you think that energy bills will be allowed to jump by 40% or so, which aiui is the logic of the algorithm?

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/12/martin-lewis--even-the-cheapest-deals-are-more-than-double-than-/
    Trouble is, how does the government dodge this particular bullet? They can't make suppliers sell at a loss for prolonged periods, and the cost has risen so much that even if they jettison VAT on fuel and all the various bits of green nonsense its still going to go up an awful lot, and people will be really cheesed off.
    The algorithm for the price cap is based on the previous months, so if wholesale prices are back down they could tweak it, suspend it, or say do it monthly for a period.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    For Wales? Why @HYUFD , it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Wales!”
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    edited December 2021

    Are there any genuine anti capitalism folks on PB

    I'm a big fan of Unionisation. I think we should aim for in-work poverty levels similar to those in Denmark, and I reckon that's how they have been achieved over there.

    I was born in the 90s though so anticipate massive hostility from posters who lived through the 70s :smiley:

    Appreciate that isn't "anti capitalism", but goes against the prevailing view on here at least.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Carnyx said:

    .

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    They used be known as green Tories. Now confirmed by the only Tory in Aberystwyth.
    Most of the ones I knew at college at the other end of Ceredigion seemed to be slightly to the left of the CPSU.
    A vote for Plaid often let in the Tory candidate was the view of Old Labour in Wales. Plaid tended in the 60s and 70s to be middle class academics with names like Ffred Ffrancis. Ffs!
    Research collaborator of mine was at Aber around that time. I heard a few stories about that sort of thing, though in this case I presume Dr Francis as was had simply transliterated his name into Welsh orthography as a matter of courtesy.

    PS And also - surely FFransis to be more correct orthographically. *checks* Yes, and also Gwynfor Evans's s-in-law.
    Yes you are right. Wasn't it Gwnfor who hunger-struck for S4C? My family were West Walians from between Llanelli and Carmarthen and first language Welsh speakers. They couldn't bear Evans, although as they were friends with Jim Griffiths that probably tells another story.

    And back in the day weren't the SNP green Tories too? Somewhat ironic as Slab are now considered Tory shills.
  • 💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920

    I have been back in the library as much as possible this last month or two. I have the excuse that I am training a devil but I really need the social contact and chat. I hate working from home for more than 1 day at a time. Hate it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    COVID Summary

    - Cases. Heading up steeply in most regions. However, R is now falling in all regions. Holidays effects? Goat de-worming pills? Phlogiston? Outside London, the rising haven't reached down into the older groups, very much. Yet

    image

    - Admissions. Heading up, but slowly overall. London is going up fairly rapidly, as is the North West.
    - Deaths. Still falling.

    image

    Mr Morden was responsible for my favourite ever scene in B5.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWE43m9SL4I
    Got to love Babylon 5 - a program that changed completely how TV serials work by introducing the multi-year storyline as the core of the program. Without it there wouldn't be the Sopranos, let alone The Wire, Game of Thrones....
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    edited December 2021

    💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920

    I am happy to continue working from home if my employer is happy to pay me the cost of buying a bigger house/renting a place with an extra room. Also my electricity bill.
  • 💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920

    Trouble is what is the sample - err probably people online who are probably working at home. I bet its skewed to people who are either used to that anyway or intoverted types . I fkin hate working at home
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920

    Bugger that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    "50% to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital"

  • RobD said:

    💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920

    Bugger that.
    I am sure you are not typical, the majority I am sure would like a hybrid model.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Eabhal said:

    Are there any genuine anti capitalism folks on PB

    I'm a big fan of Unionisation. I think we should aim for in-work poverty levels similar to those in Denmark, and I reckon that's how they have been achieved over there.

    I was born in the 90s though so anticipate massive hostility from posters who lived through the 70s :smiley:

    Appreciate that isn't "anti capitalism", but goes against the prevailing view on here at least.
    I am very pro trade unions, and I think that we would benefit greatly if private sector workers were unionised. A lot of the evils of late capitalism would be mitigated by strong unions.

    I am not anti-capitalist so much as wanting us to move to post capitalism, with organisations being decentralised, mutuality and controlled by stakeholders. Not by forcible imposition, but by choice.
  • Omicron looking extremely good and as a pessimistic person, I no longer believe we need a lockdown. But I will not apologise for being cautious.

    The cabinet have called this right, so credit where it is due. Quite happy to say that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920

    One day a week to socialise with colleagues, four at home. That's what I'm aiming for, and what most of our team was doing.

    Our official policy is 50% at home, 50% at work. That's what I was doing pre-Covid anyway.
  • https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-less-likely-to-cause-severe-symptoms-but-effectiveness-of-booster-jabs-waning-for-some-says-ukhsa-12503005

    Analysis by the agency, which was formerly called Public Health England, also shows that the effect of the booster dose in protecting against the variant is already beginning to wane in some people.

    It shows that 10 weeks after the booster the effect in preventing symptomatic disease dropped by 15 to 25%.

    The majority of people in the high risk groups received their booster 8 to 10 weeks ago. And the agency says it believes that protection against serious disease would hold up for longer.

    Independent scientists have warned that even a "milder" virus that causes large numbers of cases could still lead to a surge in hospital admissions.

    So I do believe we will need another round of boosters - but overall looks very good
  • 💻Three-quarters want to keep working from home after Covid pandemic.

    ⚫️New research reveals that only 17 per cent would prefer to spend most of their working time in workplaces

    #Thread 👇

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1474062260188454920

    One day a week to socialise with colleagues, four at home. That's what I'm aiming for, and what most of our team was doing.

    Our official policy is 50% at home, 50% at work. That's what I was doing pre-Covid anyway.
    I do two days in, two days at home. We only do a four day week :)
  • https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.
  • UK Gov should get ahead of the curve then and start putting in place a fourth round of boosters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Goodbye folks, for tonight.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Omicron looking extremely good and as a pessimistic person, I no longer believe we need a lockdown. But I will not apologise for being cautious.

    The cabinet have called this right, so credit where it is due. Quite happy to say that.

    The Saj still keeping his options open. I still expect some degree of tightened restrictions post-Christmas. But well short of a lockdown.

    Laters...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    "50% to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital"

    Lots of caveats about large numbers of cases still putting pressure on hospitals, not much data on what it does in the elderly, and so on - but nonetheless very encouraging. OTOH...

    Frontline doctors have issued desperate pleas for more people to get vaccinated after reporting that in some hospitals all new intensive care Covid patients have not had jabs.

    An estimated 5 million people, or 10% of the eligible population, have not had been inoculated, and it is this group who are seemingly draining the most resources from overstretched hospitals, experts say.

    The problem is worst in parts of London, but Cambridge’s Royal Papworth hospital said more than 80% of its Covid patients requiring the most care were unjabbed.

    Will Ricketts, a consultant chest physician at the Royal London hospital, tweeted on Wednesday: “Every new respiratory admission with Covid since Friday has been unvaccinated.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/22/help-us-to-help-you-doctors-in-england-make-pleas-to-unvaccinated

    The Government is watching the situation in London like a hawk, using it (according to several reports) to gauge the likely impact on the remainder of the country, and virtually all the seriously ill Covid patients in London are unvaccinated. Make no mistake, if more restrictions are coming after Boxing Day, it'll be entirely down to the refusers. All their fault.
  • Goodbye folks, for tonight.

    Best wishes to you all OldKingCole!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    There will be better vaccines, hopefully. We’re still using the duds they made in 2020 ;)
  • Aslan said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just watch the Trump clip. He's going to run, and he's going to win.

    He has far, far more energy than Biden.

    Don't think US democracy would survive another Trump term.
    Likewise.

    He will run. He will beat a clearly past it but stubborn Biden.

    And then it's over. 200-odd years of democracy. It's done.

    Some states will leave the union when he refuses to stand down after end of second term is my guess. It will not be peaceful.

  • DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Omicron looking extremely good and as a pessimistic person, I no longer believe we need a lockdown. But I will not apologise for being cautious.

    The cabinet have called this right, so credit where it is due. Quite happy to say that.

    No need to apologise, and it takes a bigger person to admit when they have been wrong.
    I’ve been pretty consistent on this one. I never thought there was a big problem, and hopefully that will be borne out in the next few weeks.
    I am very aware of @Leon’s law about Covid hubris...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-less-likely-to-cause-severe-symptoms-but-effectiveness-of-booster-jabs-waning-for-some-says-ukhsa-12503005

    Analysis by the agency, which was formerly called Public Health England, also shows that the effect of the booster dose in protecting against the variant is already beginning to wane in some people.

    It shows that 10 weeks after the booster the effect in preventing symptomatic disease dropped by 15 to 25%.

    The majority of people in the high risk groups received their booster 8 to 10 weeks ago. And the agency says it believes that protection against serious disease would hold up for longer.

    Independent scientists have warned that even a "milder" virus that causes large numbers of cases could still lead to a surge in hospital admissions.

    So I do believe we will need another round of boosters - but overall looks very good

    So let's get boosting (elevating? Augmenting? Enhancing? Need a new word for round 4).

    No messing around. No restrictions till the next variant comes along, reduce isolation times for asymptomatic NHS staff, crack on with life.
  • DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
    Another round of boosters will get us through to the Spring when HOPEFULLY the underlying exposure will fall away somewhat so yes we should do this.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-less-likely-to-cause-severe-symptoms-but-effectiveness-of-booster-jabs-waning-for-some-says-ukhsa-12503005

    Analysis by the agency, which was formerly called Public Health England, also shows that the effect of the booster dose in protecting against the variant is already beginning to wane in some people.

    It shows that 10 weeks after the booster the effect in preventing symptomatic disease dropped by 15 to 25%.

    The majority of people in the high risk groups received their booster 8 to 10 weeks ago. And the agency says it believes that protection against serious disease would hold up for longer.

    Independent scientists have warned that even a "milder" virus that causes large numbers of cases could still lead to a surge in hospital admissions.

    So I do believe we will need another round of boosters - but overall looks very good

    Symptomatic disease though. Once again, the immune system does not just consist of NAb’s.
  • Yes absolutely, it's time for the Government to get ahead, call for a round 4 of boosters and continue it for as long as needed. That seems a small price to pay.

    Labour should call for this now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
    If its an alternative I would agree. We need to get to the point that you stay at home only if you are actually ill, not just because you are positive. Of course, such a world gets more problematic for the unvaxxed but, frankly, tough sh1t.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    Eabhal said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-less-likely-to-cause-severe-symptoms-but-effectiveness-of-booster-jabs-waning-for-some-says-ukhsa-12503005

    Analysis by the agency, which was formerly called Public Health England, also shows that the effect of the booster dose in protecting against the variant is already beginning to wane in some people.

    It shows that 10 weeks after the booster the effect in preventing symptomatic disease dropped by 15 to 25%.

    The majority of people in the high risk groups received their booster 8 to 10 weeks ago. And the agency says it believes that protection against serious disease would hold up for longer.

    Independent scientists have warned that even a "milder" virus that causes large numbers of cases could still lead to a surge in hospital admissions.

    So I do believe we will need another round of boosters - but overall looks very good

    So let's get boosting (elevating? Augmenting? Enhancing? Need a new word for round 4).

    No messing around. No restrictions till the next variant comes along, reduce isolation times for asymptomatic NHS staff, crack on with life.
    And anti-vaxxers told to self-isolate indefinitely, and "back of the queue for ICU" (good line).
  • Omicron looking extremely good and as a pessimistic person, I no longer believe we need a lockdown. But I will not apologise for being cautious.

    The cabinet have called this right, so credit where it is due. Quite happy to say that.

    No need to apologise, and it takes a bigger person to admit when they have been wrong.
    I’ve been pretty consistent on this one. I never thought there was a big problem, and hopefully that will be borne out in the next few weeks.
    I am very aware of @Leon’s law about Covid hubris...
    Well I seemingly was wrong - but I am quite glad to be. Will keep a few percent of caution but I am leaning that way.

    A further lockdown certainly looks pointless at this stage.
  • DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
    Another round of boosters will get us through to the Spring when HOPEFULLY the underlying exposure will fall away somewhat so yes we should do this.
    The amount of important updates we need for the vaccines to keep going certainly brings credence to the idea that Gates and Microsoft might be involved.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
    If its an alternative I would agree. We need to get to the point that you stay at home only if you are actually ill, not just because you are positive. Of course, such a world gets more problematic for the unvaxxed but, frankly, tough sh1t.
    Philip would say we should go out and infect people but I agree, WFH if you are ill.
  • https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
  • https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    Time for the next round, UK Gov should announce this starting in the New Year
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2021
    That bloke who they caught in Belgium having had 9 jabs in short space of time had the right idea.....
  • Just published on http://gov.uk: a statement from the SPI-M-O chairs addressing many of the recent criticisms of Omicron modelling

    https://twitter.com/JoshBiostats/status/1474050765698314271
  • https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1473971684285636608

    For which OTHER party could current Labour voters see themselves voting?

    None: 31%
    Liberal Democrat: 30%
    Green: 20%
    Conservative: 8%
    Independent: 6%
    Don't know: 9%

    Certainly gives fire to the idea of tactical voting
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2021
    The waning is "the effect in preventing symptomatic disease"....I think again what we want to know if how does it work against severe disease / hospitalisation.
  • I have only quickly scan read the SPI statement, but to my layman's eyes, they appear to be sticking to their guns.
  • It does look though that Pfizer and Moderna just need to crack on and produce their re-formulated versions for Omicron.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    Aslan said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just watch the Trump clip. He's going to run, and he's going to win.

    He has far, far more energy than Biden.

    Don't think US democracy would survive another Trump term.
    Likewise.

    He will run. He will beat a clearly past it but stubborn Biden.

    And then it's over. 200-odd years of democracy. It's done.

    Some states will leave the union when he refuses to stand down after end of second term is my guess. It will not be peaceful.

    More likely Biden does not run again and Buttigieg narrowly wins.

    Trump may not even run again but if Biden or Harris are the candidates again he has a chance.

    He could not run for a third term however even if he wins again as the constitution forbids it, he unlikely would have the 2/3 majority in Congress to overturn it and the SC would uphold the Constitution even if it interprets it in a conservative way.

    Only way he could do it is if the army were on side, which they were not for him in January 2020
  • Seems to me that UK Gov should just announce quarterly boosters for the next however long and that should be enough going forward
  • https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    "wane" or "begin to wane"?

    Also, we have been here time and time - what about the T-cells? Yes immunity wanes but the system has learnt and is ready to spring back to life when needed.

    But based on past procedure, we are now looking at a Spring booster campaign. Starting again just as we finished the current boosters.

    Will GPs ever get back to their day job?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited December 2021
    Fishing said:

    DavidL said:

    Loved this in The Guardian’s list of the year’s 50 best tv shows:

    37.
    Blair and Brown: The New Labour Revolution
    (BBC Two)

    … It is an inside job, with Labour veterans as unreliable narrators. Brown’s speechwriter Douglas Alexander even says: “They were literally the Lennon and McCartney of British politics.” Rubbish. They were more like Wham!, with no George Michael and two Andrew Ridgeleys.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/dec/03/the-50-best-tv-shows-of-2021

    The best political programme of the last decade IMHO
    That surely has to be Cumberbatch's Brexit. Took the piss out of everybody quite brilliantly.
    For me the best political history programme of the last decade (it was made in 1998 but I only saw it for the first time a couple of years ago) was the Secret History on the Winter of Discontent. Sheds a lot of light on the episode which determined the fate of British politics, economics and society for at least a decade to come, and still influences it to this day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYWsUXQrLYw
    I had not seen the documentary, and I was quite young at the time of the event.

    But it reminds me how correct Mrs Thatcher was to reset the culture of Trades Unions, and especially pickets.

    The Workers' Committee in the blockaded city of Hull deciding who was going to be allowed to have their deliveries, when the Government backed down from sending the army in to keep things moving, was striking. As was the loss of control by Trade Union leaders.

    Can anyone identify this (I think) London Square? I say London because there would be no need for journos to go further.


  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    Time for the next round, UK Gov should announce this starting in the New Year
    The deliberations about more boosters are grinding their way through the JCVI. In the meantime, the current campaign is still only just over half done. They'll get round to invites for olds again soon enough, I'm sure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Then you must resign the Tory Party immediately, you are not a true Tory voter
    That does rather destroy his persistent denial of the legitimacy of independence for Scotland, if he voted for Welsh independence. I mean, Henry VIII owned the bloody place.
    I didn't vote for Welsh independence, all the other votes I cast were for Tories and the only candidates left were Plaid.

    It was for town council, not even Senedd let alone Westminster (in which case I would not have voted for Plaid at all)
  • HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Then you must resign the Tory Party immediately, you are not a true Tory voter
    That does rather destroy his persistent denial of the legitimacy of independence for Scotland, if he voted for Welsh independence. I mean, Henry VIII owned the bloody place.
    I didn't vote for Welsh independence, all the other votes I cast were for Tories and the only candidates left were Plaid.

    It was for town council, not even Senedd let alone Westminster (in which case I would not have voted for Plaid at all)
    So when you voted Tory, that wasn't a vote for Brexit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2021

    Seems to me that UK Gov should just announce quarterly boosters for the next however long and that should be enough going forward

    The only problem with that is there will be bugger all GP services etc. In order to keep constantly running a booster program we are going to have to keep loads of people from their day to day jobs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    The only person that is allowed to vote Tory is @HYUFD.

    He’s going to be shocked when learns I’ve voted Tory before

    I am shamed to have to admit I have never voted Labour before after what you have said about my lack of ideological partisanship. That said I do perhaps redeem myself by once having been a member of Plaid Cymru back in the early 80s as the PC club in Cardiff was the only place you could get a drink on a Sunday evening. I have also voted both Green and LD in my dim and distant past at a local level.
    I once voted Plaid in a straight PC vs Labour contest while I was at college. I had planned to vote Labour, despite being mates with one of the more prominent Plaid members there, but then the night before the poll, the Labour candidate drove his car into the quad around 11pm and blasted out calls to vote for him on his loudspeaker.

    Of course, looking back, that could have been a dirty trick by Plaid, but it would have definitely been something the Labour candidate, who was known for his eccentricity, might have thought was a good idea at the time.
    Believe it or not I once also voted Plaid. When I was at Aberystwyth there were not enough Tory candidates for all the town council posts and as I always use all my votes I voted for a Plaid candidate who had canvassed me
    Then you must resign the Tory Party immediately, you are not a true Tory voter
    That does rather destroy his persistent denial of the legitimacy of independence for Scotland, if he voted for Welsh independence. I mean, Henry VIII owned the bloody place.
    I didn't vote for Welsh independence, all the other votes I cast were for Tories and the only candidates left were Plaid.

    It was for town council, not even Senedd let alone Westminster (in which case I would not have voted for Plaid at all)
    So when you voted Tory, that wasn't a vote for Brexit?
    It was as it was for Westminster, a Tory vote for council however would not have been but more for low council tax and well run local services
  • HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just watch the Trump clip. He's going to run, and he's going to win.

    He has far, far more energy than Biden.

    Don't think US democracy would survive another Trump term.
    Likewise.

    He will run. He will beat a clearly past it but stubborn Biden.

    And then it's over. 200-odd years of democracy. It's done.

    Some states will leave the union when he refuses to stand down after end of second term is my guess. It will not be peaceful.

    More likely Biden does not run again and Buttigieg narrowly wins.

    Trump may not even run again but if Biden or Harris are the candidates again he has a chance.

    He could not run for a third term however even if he wins again as the constitution forbids it, he unlikely would have the 2/3 majority in Congress to overturn it and the SC would uphold the Constitution even if it interprets it in a conservative way.

    Only way he could do it is if the army were on side, which they were not for him in January 2020
    I admire your confidence that Trump, and more specifically the dark forces around him in GOP, will not have learnt how to get it 'right' next time to bypass constitution and rig a third term.
This discussion has been closed.