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The Red Wall seems to have swung most against Boris – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageThe Red Wall seems to have swung most against Boris – politicalbetting.com

One of the reasons that I use Opinium polls a lot for illustrative purposes is that the firm’s polling datasets are far more comprehensive than any other pollster and provide information not available elsewhere.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    First
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.

    Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.
  • Bad for Gove too, presumably, since he is the Secretary of State for Levelling Up.
  • Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    "The rest of us can get on with our lives and leave the antibody modellers to build castles in the air."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/23/prof-lockdowns-apocalyptic-omicron-claims-undermine-faith-vaccines/

    Can't read the article but if you are told that you have to lockdown to "defeat" the virus why would you bother getting jabbed. You won't be meeting with anyone to give or receive the virus.
    Both help to reduce the risk. And of course lockdown in some people's defintions is pretty much open access to other people, albeit restricted.
    Doesn't make sense. Lockdown as advocated by some profs is lockdown.
    And lockdown as defined by some here is quite different. As one of us remarked, it's no longer a very helpful term.
    The misuse of the “L-Word” is quite funny.

    For some of us, lockdown meant a month of needing advance permission from the police to leave the house, only every three days to visit supermarket or pharmacy, enforced by ANPR cameras and setting speed cameras to zero, and police patrols around residential neighbourhoods - followed by two months of a 10pm curfew, and a ban on visiting anyone else’s house.
    Where was that Sandpit?
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    eek said:

    Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.

    Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.

    Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.

    Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Taz said:

    The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.

    Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.

    It feels a bit like Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1981 when everyone was convinced she was about to be forced out of office by riots, recession, strikes, unemployment, etc.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    Bad for Gove too, presumably, since he is the Secretary of State for Levelling Up.

    Minister without portfolio, effectively.
  • OT -- fans of double negatives might like this, from Deliveroo:-

    Please indicate below if you would not like to be contacted by a member of our support team for a follow-up.

    Yes
    No
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    edited December 2021
    Yes, it will be a huge story in 2022. Among its facets, which could lengthen its interest, are three questions none of which admit one word answers, though it won't stop people, including me, trying:

    Can Boris recover enough to survive 2022?

    Is there a single person currently an MP who enough people including Tory MPs believe will do better? (All politics is relativity)

    Who?


    My current estimate:
    He has a better chance than the bookies think of surviving 2022

    because

    I can't think of one

    but

    Here's hoping for Hunt! But the obstacles are immense.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.

    Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.

    It feels a bit like Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1981 when everyone was convinced she was about to be forced out of office by riots, recession, strikes, unemployment, etc.
    IT does indeed, I wonder what Boris's Falklands moment will be ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    That wallpaper has not gone away

    Good to see that "Hartlepool = Peak Boris" has attained above-the-line status.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    Agree. Recent events have I think shifted the odds to favour the next election ending in a centre left alliance, but only from about equally likely to about 60/40. And has only slightly increased the tiny chance of a Labour outright win

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    OT -- fans of double negatives might like this, from Deliveroo:-

    Please indicate below if you would not like to be contacted by a member of our support team for a follow-up.

    Yes
    No

    A strange game, the only way to win is not to play. Would you like a nice game of chess?
  • A couple of covid observations:

    1) Omicron seems to rising fast in Australia - we'll get to see what it does in a country with high vaccination but low previous infections.

    2) The booster program in the USA seems to have come to a near stop - if the GOP hadn't pandered to anti-vaxxery they could have really ripped Biden on this.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    algarkirk said:

    Yes, it will be a huge story in 2022. Among its facets, which could lengthen its interest, are three questions none of which admit one word answers, though it won't stop people, including me, trying:

    Can Boris recover enough to survive 2022?

    Is there a single person currently an MP who enough people including Tory MPs believe will do better? (All politics is relativity)

    Who?


    My current estimate:
    He has a better chance than the bookies think of surviving 2022

    because

    I can't think of one

    but

    Here's hoping for Hunt! But the obstacles are immense.

    I have no major gripes about Hunt, and can see why some favour him - but I just can't see him being that popular with the electorate.
    I suppose he only has to beat Kier Starmer though, who falls into a similarly Rich Tea category.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes, it will be a huge story in 2022. Among its facets, which could lengthen its interest, are three questions none of which admit one word answers, though it won't stop people, including me, trying:

    Can Boris recover enough to survive 2022?

    Is there a single person currently an MP who enough people including Tory MPs believe will do better? (All politics is relativity)

    Who?


    My current estimate:
    He has a better chance than the bookies think of surviving 2022

    because

    I can't think of one

    but

    Here's hoping for Hunt! But the obstacles are immense.

    I have no major gripes about Hunt, and can see why some favour him - but I just can't see him being that popular with the electorate.
    I suppose he only has to beat Kier Starmer though, who falls into a similarly Rich Tea category.
    Agree. The obstacles are pretty large. The Tories are down a populist route, and though populism/popular politics is essential they are not sufficient in the long run. Boris and Jezza are both populists (though Jezza would of course be in denial about that).

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    How would Liz Truss do in the Red Wall? Difficult to say.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    "The rest of us can get on with our lives and leave the antibody modellers to build castles in the air."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/23/prof-lockdowns-apocalyptic-omicron-claims-undermine-faith-vaccines/

    Can't read the article but if you are told that you have to lockdown to "defeat" the virus why would you bother getting jabbed. You won't be meeting with anyone to give or receive the virus.
    Both help to reduce the risk. And of course lockdown in some people's defintions is pretty much open access to other people, albeit restricted.
    Doesn't make sense. Lockdown as advocated by some profs is lockdown.
    And lockdown as defined by some here is quite different. As one of us remarked, it's no longer a very helpful term.
    The misuse of the “L-Word” is quite funny.

    For some of us, lockdown meant a month of needing advance permission from the police to leave the house, only every three days to visit supermarket or pharmacy, enforced by ANPR cameras and setting speed cameras to zero, and police patrols around residential neighbourhoods - followed by two months of a 10pm curfew, and a ban on visiting anyone else’s house.
    Where was that Sandpit?
    Dubai, at the start in April-June 2020.

    There have been fewer restrictions than the UK this year though, all we have left now is masks in public and 1m between tables in restaurants.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    "The rest of us can get on with our lives and leave the antibody modellers to build castles in the air."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/23/prof-lockdowns-apocalyptic-omicron-claims-undermine-faith-vaccines/

    Can't read the article but if you are told that you have to lockdown to "defeat" the virus why would you bother getting jabbed. You won't be meeting with anyone to give or receive the virus.
    Both help to reduce the risk. And of course lockdown in some people's defintions is pretty much open access to other people, albeit restricted.
    Doesn't make sense. Lockdown as advocated by some profs is lockdown.
    And lockdown as defined by some here is quite different. As one of us remarked, it's no longer a very helpful term.
    The misuse of the “L-Word” is quite funny.

    For some of us, lockdown meant a month of needing advance permission from the police to leave the house, only every three days to visit supermarket or pharmacy, enforced by ANPR cameras and setting speed cameras to zero, and police patrols around residential neighbourhoods - followed by two months of a 10pm curfew, and a ban on visiting anyone else’s house.
    Where was that Sandpit?
    Dubai.
    Of course.
  • Obviously not a proper poll, but quite a lot of votes on Blair's comment yesterday

    @PickardJE
    do you agree with Tony Blair that those who can have vaccines but refuse to are “idiots”
    idiots - 89.7%
    not idiots - 10.3%
    10,925 votes
    1 day left
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1473745721635610635

    I missed the Archbish saying this week that antivaxers will burn in hell. Well he didn't exactly say that, nor did he actually say that they were "immoral", but GB News did a twit poll on that anyway..

    @GBNEWS
    Television Coming up on Dewbs & Co at 6pm...

    Syringe Is the Archbishop of Canterbury right to say that choosing not to be vaccinated is immoral?
    Yes - 17.1%
    No - 82.9%
    7,769 votes
    Final results
    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1473701928886575105
  • NYT leading with the three latest Omicron studies - two from the UK:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/health/covid-omicron-delta-hospitalizations.html
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    On the important subject of the day, this is quite good: Why Love Actually is the least romantic film of all time:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/12/-em-love-actually-em-is-the-least-romantic-film-of-all-time/282091/
  • Latest data show #COVID19 antibody levels remain high across the UK.

    Estimated percentage of adults who tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies (week beginning 29 Nov):

    - England 95.0%
    - Wales 93.6%
    - Northern Ireland 95.3%
    - Scotland 95.0%


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1473949307980161026?s=20
  • algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes, it will be a huge story in 2022. Among its facets, which could lengthen its interest, are three questions none of which admit one word answers, though it won't stop people, including me, trying:

    Can Boris recover enough to survive 2022?

    Is there a single person currently an MP who enough people including Tory MPs believe will do better? (All politics is relativity)

    Who?


    My current estimate:
    He has a better chance than the bookies think of surviving 2022

    because

    I can't think of one

    but

    Here's hoping for Hunt! But the obstacles are immense.

    I have no major gripes about Hunt, and can see why some favour him - but I just can't see him being that popular with the electorate.
    I suppose he only has to beat Kier Starmer though, who falls into a similarly Rich Tea category.
    Agree. The obstacles are pretty large. The Tories are down a populist route, and though populism/popular politics is essential they are not sufficient in the long run. Boris and Jezza are both populists (though Jezza would of course be in denial about that).

    All politicians are populists but their populism is aimed at different segments of the electorate.
  • Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes, it will be a huge story in 2022. Among its facets, which could lengthen its interest, are three questions none of which admit one word answers, though it won't stop people, including me, trying:

    Can Boris recover enough to survive 2022?

    Is there a single person currently an MP who enough people including Tory MPs believe will do better? (All politics is relativity)

    Who?


    My current estimate:
    He has a better chance than the bookies think of surviving 2022

    because

    I can't think of one

    but

    Here's hoping for Hunt! But the obstacles are immense.

    I have no major gripes about Hunt, and can see why some favour him - but I just can't see him being that popular with the electorate.
    I suppose he only has to beat Kier Starmer though, who falls into a similarly Rich Tea category.
    That would be a sensible choice for the electorate and in stark contrast to the last GE which was a choice between Dumb and Dumber. Dumb won, and now we are seeing the consequences, and the fact that it isn't quite as bad as if Dumber had won is very little solace.
  • O/T : this is further evidence that the last GE was driven by an anti-Corbyn vote rather than a pro-Johnson/Get Brexit Done vote. Corbyn was a gift to the Tories. What was the Labour Party thinking?!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    NYT leading with the three latest Omicron studies - two from the UK:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/health/covid-omicron-delta-hospitalizations.html

    @Carnyx

    The Edinburgh paper in full is here:

    https://t.co/bqQqR1ag6l?s=09

    (Lots of no shows in clinic today...)
  • Cookie said:

    BBC radio news now shifting the argument: actually hospitalisations aren't important, it's case numbers which should guide policy on lockdowns.
    Honestly, BBC (and Sky, while we're at it), just fuck off.
    If there is to be a reckoning at the end of all this, the BBC come pretty close to the top of the list of villains of the piece.

    Easy to reduce case numbers.

    Just stop handing out LFTs.
  • Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
    Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
    Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
    It will continue to live, rent free, in his head for years to come.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709
    At the Hibs game "Shove your fucking booster up your arse"

    If you tell young people to get boosted, at no real benefit to themselves personally, but still stop them going to open - air stadiums and close night clubs, they are absolutely right to ask what the point is.
  • Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
    Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
    It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 368
    FPT

    MaxPB said:
    » show previous quotes
    “It's that party politics and party management that has kept us out of lockdown. You should be glad that the 100 stood up to the bullshit on plan b and the cabinet told the scientists to go back and do their sums properly.

    However you want to approach it we all owe Christmas this year to Tory MPs. Labour were ready to wave through all of the proposed measures as usual. It was Tory resistance to more lockdowns that has halted it.”


    For all the criticism of too many PPE graduates in politics if you have someone like Sunak in there then you would imagine that out of all of them he would understand the importance of putting numbers in to models can give varying results depending on the numbers entered from his hedge funds days.

    So PPE shouldn’t be as important as maybe their career and experience. We’ve seen that scientists are fallible too in a different way and so the calls to stuff politics with scientists isn’t the panacea that people think it would be.

    Whatever people think of Sunak’s career he must have been pretty smart to do as well as he did and so thank heaven for small mercies that somebody there understands numbers and not just Roman numerals…..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Andy_JS said:

    How would Liz Truss do in the Red Wall? Difficult to say.

    Crackin' bird when she was young. Not bad now, mind!
    Daft as a brush, though!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Did we see this bit from the YouGov survey

    Do you think the Conservative party is trustworthy or untrustworthy?

    Trustworthy: 10% (-6 on 25th Oct)
    Untrustworthy: 64% (+8)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/is-the-conservative-trustworthy-or-untrustworthy?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_tracker&utm_campaign=are_cons_trustworthy


    Alastair Meeks
    @AlastairMeeks
    ·
    5m
    That's just 1% more than claim to have communicated with the dead.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094

    O/T : this is further evidence that the last GE was driven by an anti-Corbyn vote rather than a pro-Johnson/Get Brexit Done vote. Corbyn was a gift to the Tories. What was the Labour Party thinking?!

    The Corbyn stuff has been talked to death. My view is that Corbyn created an asymmetry in politics that made Boris’ result possible.

    In short, fear of Corbyn enabled the Tory EU and centrists to stick with Boris. Boris had the freedom to adopt a simple hard Brexit policy without worrying about that flank. He was able to conjure an image of decisiveness, which appealed in the circumstances of 2019.

    Meanwhile Labour had no such bogeyman and therefore had to adopt a more nuanced position that looked muddy and delighted no one.

    The world has changed a lot since and those circumstances will be hard to recreate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited December 2021

    Cookie said:

    BBC radio news now shifting the argument: actually hospitalisations aren't important, it's case numbers which should guide policy on lockdowns.
    Honestly, BBC (and Sky, while we're at it), just fuck off.
    If there is to be a reckoning at the end of all this, the BBC come pretty close to the top of the list of villains of the piece.

    Easy to reduce case numbers.

    Just stop handing out LFTs.
    Happened already; have you tried to get one recently? Promises, promises.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Cookie said:

    BBC radio news now shifting the argument: actually hospitalisations aren't important, it's case numbers which should guide policy on lockdowns.
    Honestly, BBC (and Sky, while we're at it), just fuck off.
    If there is to be a reckoning at the end of all this, the BBC come pretty close to the top of the list of villains of the piece.

    NI, Wales and Scotland have all locked down because of case numbers - as there is nothing else beyond fear to go on.
  • algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes, it will be a huge story in 2022. Among its facets, which could lengthen its interest, are three questions none of which admit one word answers, though it won't stop people, including me, trying:

    Can Boris recover enough to survive 2022?

    Is there a single person currently an MP who enough people including Tory MPs believe will do better? (All politics is relativity)

    Who?


    My current estimate:
    He has a better chance than the bookies think of surviving 2022

    because

    I can't think of one

    but

    Here's hoping for Hunt! But the obstacles are immense.

    I have no major gripes about Hunt, and can see why some favour him - but I just can't see him being that popular with the electorate.
    I suppose he only has to beat Kier Starmer though, who falls into a similarly Rich Tea category.
    Agree. The obstacles are pretty large. The Tories are down a populist route, and though populism/popular politics is essential they are not sufficient in the long run. Boris and Jezza are both populists (though Jezza would of course be in denial about that).

    All politicians are populists but their populism is aimed at different segments of the electorate.
    That is complete nonsense. Populism is about short termism and appealing to the baser instincts of sections of the population. Fascism is populism in its basest form. It is the antithesis of good governance and sometimes having to do what might be unpopular in the short term but necessary for good governance when looking at complex issues.
  • Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
    Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
    It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
    To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 938
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
    To be honest Scott, getting back to worrying about the shaved parmesan crisis will be something of a relief after this.
    A three quarters collapse in small business exports is a bit more than a minor problem.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 938
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.

    Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.

    Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.

    Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
    Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    edited December 2021
    Taz said:

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
    Well, I know roughly what I'd do (off the top of my head, serious incentives for investment and some direct investment, improvement of public transport links, adult retraining expansion, financed by a new band on income tax above (say) £70K, a wealth tax and a spread of council tax bands both up at the top and down at the bottom), but I can't speak for the leadership who I'm sure will be less radical - and they'll only say when an election actually comes round for all the usual reasons. I agree with your posts that the North has merely shifted from "Oh, let's try the Tories" to "God, that was bad, but is Labour any better?" I'm reasonably hopeful that we'll get to a more positive point.
  • Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
    Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
    It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
    To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
    It is his prerogative. Why shouldn't he? He has been consistent in saying Boris Johnson is unfit for office. He has been right while a whole load of you have been consistently apologising for the idiocy of having a incompetent clown as PM. The truth is that many on here don't like being reminded that Brexit was pointless. It was, though where I differ from Scott is I think it is time to move on because it cannot be reversed.
  • Cookie said:

    BBC radio news now shifting the argument: actually hospitalisations aren't important, it's case numbers which should guide policy on lockdowns.
    Honestly, BBC (and Sky, while we're at it), just fuck off.
    If there is to be a reckoning at the end of all this, the BBC come pretty close to the top of the list of villains of the piece.

    I doubt the Cabinet will listen. Not unless they want to be replaced by a new team.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,177

    Taz said:

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
    Well, I know roughly what I'd do (off the top of my head, serious incentives for investment and some direct investment, improvement of public transport links, adult retraining expansion, financed by a new band on income tax above (say) £70K, a wealth tax and a spread of council tax bands both at the top and the bottom), but I can't speak for the leadership who I'm sure will be less radical - and they'll only say when an election actually comes round for all the usual reasons. I agree with your posts that the North has merely shifted from "Oh, let's try the Tories" to "God, that was bad, but is Labour any better?" I'm reasonably hopeful that we'll get to a more positive point.
    Massive taxes on aspiration. Same old Labour.

    One day they'll realise that it actually pays to grow the economy, rather than squeeze people's income....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
  • Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.

    He has been "lucky" thus far...
    Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
    It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
    To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
    It is his prerogative. Why shouldn't he? He has been consistent in saying Boris Johnson is unfit for office. He has been right while a whole load of you have been consistently apologising for the idiocy of having a incompetent clown as PM. The truth is that many on here don't like being reminded that Brexit was pointless. It was, though where I differ from Scott is I think it is time to move on because it cannot be reversed.
    I wholly agree with your last sentence
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes, it will be a huge story in 2022. Among its facets, which could lengthen its interest, are three questions none of which admit one word answers, though it won't stop people, including me, trying:

    Can Boris recover enough to survive 2022?

    Is there a single person currently an MP who enough people including Tory MPs believe will do better? (All politics is relativity)

    Who?


    My current estimate:
    He has a better chance than the bookies think of surviving 2022

    because

    I can't think of one

    but

    Here's hoping for Hunt! But the obstacles are immense.

    I have no major gripes about Hunt, and can see why some favour him - but I just can't see him being that popular with the electorate.
    I suppose he only has to beat Kier Starmer though, who falls into a similarly Rich Tea category.
    Agree. The obstacles are pretty large. The Tories are down a populist route, and though populism/popular politics is essential they are not sufficient in the long run. Boris and Jezza are both populists (though Jezza would of course be in denial about that).

    All politicians are populists but their populism is aimed at different segments of the electorate.
    This is true, but of course populist is an irregular adjective. Politicians who aim at oneself for votes are popular, One Nation, moderate; if you aim at the wrong sort, you are populist, extreme, Neanderthal.

    Hunt appeals to people who can cope with epic levels of dullness. There are more such people than meet the eye. So does SKS.

    The theatre the next GE being Boris v Jess Phillips would be box office. For the good of the nation, maybe a borefest is needed.

  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Mortimer said:

    Taz said:

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
    Well, I know roughly what I'd do (off the top of my head, serious incentives for investment and some direct investment, improvement of public transport links, adult retraining expansion, financed by a new band on income tax above (say) £70K, a wealth tax and a spread of council tax bands both at the top and the bottom), but I can't speak for the leadership who I'm sure will be less radical - and they'll only say when an election actually comes round for all the usual reasons. I agree with your posts that the North has merely shifted from "Oh, let's try the Tories" to "God, that was bad, but is Labour any better?" I'm reasonably hopeful that we'll get to a more positive point.
    Massive taxes on aspiration. Same old Labour.

    One day they'll realise that it actually pays to grow the economy, rather than squeeze people's income....
    Money has to come from somewhere and the only other option is a wealth tax - which you would equally hate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Dura_Ace said:

    Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.

    Finish with a bang?
  • O/T : this is further evidence that the last GE was driven by an anti-Corbyn vote rather than a pro-Johnson/Get Brexit Done vote. Corbyn was a gift to the Tories. What was the Labour Party thinking?!

    Its the contrary. That Boris had very high positives earlier this year was to his credit, it wasn't anti-Corbyn at all considering Starmer had long since replaced Corbyn already.

    What's changed since then is that Johnson has lost many of those who were in favour of him, myself included.

    What its evidence of is that while there was a pro-Johnson vote last time, unless things change dramatically there will not be one next time. The past is no guarantee of the future.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Boris' ratings look quite universally dire to me at the moment. Maybe the booster program will save him ?
    Not sure.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Taz said:

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
    Well, I know roughly what I'd do (off the top of my head, serious incentives for investment and some direct investment, improvement of public transport links, adult retraining expansion, financed by a new band on income tax above (say) £70K, a wealth tax and a spread of council tax bands both up at the top and down at the bottom), but I can't speak for the leadership who I'm sure will be less radical - and they'll only say when an election actually comes round for all the usual reasons. I agree with your posts that the North has merely shifted from "Oh, let's try the Tories" to "God, that was bad, but is Labour any better?" I'm reasonably hopeful that we'll get to a more positive point.
    I'd certainly go with adult retraining expansion and major revision, both ways, of council tax bands. I'd suggest a major review of public transport, rather than simply the links; the 'solution' we have is basically the Beeching plan, with tinkering.
    And better policing (not necessarily with the current structures) of the investment world. Sometimes seems to me that we're little better regulated than the Cayman Islands or Monaco.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,992
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall

    Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return

    Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.

    Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.

    It feels a bit like Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1981 when everyone was convinced she was about to be forced out of office by riots, recession, strikes, unemployment, etc.
    No doubt had PB been around at the time we would have had OGH doing threads about how the Tories needed to ditch Thatcher for Francis Pym to stay in office otherwise Roy Jenkins would become PM of an SDP led government
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.

    Putin has morphed into Boris 2019?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,177
    DavidL said:

    On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.

    Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.

    Omicron panic has been fuelled by people being too cautious for about 10 days, and the media/opposition calling for restrictions. But apart from the perennial worrywarts, as far as I can see its largely been a temporary blip and Christmas related. When the push for the restrictions fades, so will much of the economic caution.

    As an aside, lots of my mates have been supporting pubs and restos more - and buying expensive pressies too. Our December sales are on a par with a normal pre pandemic December.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    HYUFD said:

    If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall

    It does look as if England (outside London anyway) is going to be one of very few places in Western Europe open for new year.
  • Mr. Cookie, that's a bizarre argument the media is making.

    If people are not getting serious symptoms then high case numbers don't matter. How many people have colds? With proportionally fewer deaths and lower hospitalisations, the case for restrictions does not exist.
  • Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    2h
    Why is
    @BBCNews
    playing down the fact the Omicron variant is far less severe?
    It’s a sick society that only imposes bad news on its people.
    Or does it spoil the push for more unnecessary restrictions?
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    Cicero said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Yep - once levelling up was confirmed by the cancellation of the big infrastructure projects to be a set of lies - the North are returning to Labour.

    Yes, there is an element of that but I also think quite a few voters just won't bother or are currently don't knows. I wouldn't bother in General Elections if I didn't like my Labour MP who deserves my vote.

    Labour did little for us in their time in power after all aside from taking the safe seats in the red wall for granted.

    Why should the red wall just go back to labour en masse to provide lobby fodder to parliament to support a labour govt.
    Because when the voted for Tory lobby fodder, they got shafted.
    Which was no different to when they voted for the labour lobby fodder. That is the point. Moving from one party that does little for the area to another that does little for the area. Where is the motive to go out and endorse either.

    You offer no reason at all to go back to labour. Just not being the Tories is not enough.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,177
    eek said:

    Mortimer said:

    Taz said:

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
    Well, I know roughly what I'd do (off the top of my head, serious incentives for investment and some direct investment, improvement of public transport links, adult retraining expansion, financed by a new band on income tax above (say) £70K, a wealth tax and a spread of council tax bands both at the top and the bottom), but I can't speak for the leadership who I'm sure will be less radical - and they'll only say when an election actually comes round for all the usual reasons. I agree with your posts that the North has merely shifted from "Oh, let's try the Tories" to "God, that was bad, but is Labour any better?" I'm reasonably hopeful that we'll get to a more positive point.
    Massive taxes on aspiration. Same old Labour.

    One day they'll realise that it actually pays to grow the economy, rather than squeeze people's income....
    Money has to come from somewhere and the only other option is a wealth tax - which you would equally hate.
    Money comes from growing the economy....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    FPT: 'At the Hibs game "You can stick your fucking booster up your arse"'

    Thank goodness it wasn't a member of the CCS giving me my booster.
  • Mr. Cookie, that's a bizarre argument the media is making.

    If people are not getting serious symptoms then high case numbers don't matter. How many people have colds? With proportionally fewer deaths and lower hospitalisations, the case for restrictions does not exist.

    Some in media just seem desperate to get us lockdown again.

    I can only think it is so they can get stuck into their favourite old hit: "When are you going to unlock, Prime Minister?"
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    More than likely.
  • HYUFD said:

    If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall

    "Boris" as you still affectionately call him is (most probably) a dead man walking. There comes a point when Teflon wears out and the shit starts to stick and it is time to renew the utensil. Most sensible people have caught up with what a lot of us have known for a very long time: he is unfit for office. As I am right of centre and still fear a Labour government, so I hope the cretin will be removed, and that the Conservatives can return to being a sensible party of government. Without Corbyn, the Red Wall will most likely be red again after the next election unless The Clown is replaced.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall

    It does look as if England (outside London anyway) is going to be one of very few places in Western Europe open for new year.
    Let's hope so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    Dura_Ace said:

    Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.

    Isn't the Russian meaning of 'levelling' rather more sinister than ours ?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.

    Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.

    It feels a bit like Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1981 when everyone was convinced she was about to be forced out of office by riots, recession, strikes, unemployment, etc.
    No doubt had PB been around at the time we would have had OGH doing threads about how the Tories needed to ditch Thatcher for Francis Pym to stay in office otherwise Roy Jenkins would become PM of an SDP led government
    I wonder what quiet negotiations Ms Truss' department is involved in which will encourage some foreign government, needing positive publicity, to make a grab for British territory? And which member of our government will realise what is happening, blow the whistle and cause said foreign government to act prematurely?
    Would we go to war for Northern Ireland?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Dura_Ace said:

    Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.

    Isn't it just his annual ask me anything phone-in?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    (FPT)
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Must be Christmas - Die Hard is on the telly....

    I am watching Die Hard tomorrow night, preceded by Love Actually, that way I can see Alan Rickman get properly punished for hurting Emma Thompson by having an affair with that tramp.

    #DeathPenaltyForAdulterers
    I do not know why, but I have gone off movies in recent years. I much prefer science documentaries
    That’s because most of the movies are crap superhero sequels. Documentaries, and stand-up comedy specials, kept me sane during the pandemic.

    Oh, and James Webb Space Telescope launches tonight on Christmas Day! 🚀
    I'm surprisingly nervous about this launch. The JWST will be such an amazing tool, but there is so much that can go wrong ...

    And they can go wrong: the Lucy probe launched a few months ago has had trouble with a solar panel not deploying. I haven't heard any news on it, but it *may* be a very big deal for its target orbit.
    If you and I feel nervous, imagine how those who have been working on it for 25 years are feeling right now!

    There’s more than 300 critical operations in the deployment phase, and if it goes wrong there’s no recovery options except to build another one.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=aICaAEXDJQQ

    Everything crossed for them.
    I'm incredibly excited about this too. I am sure it will all go to plan and go smoothly. I cannot wait to see some of the images it sends back. Hubble is impressive enough but this will be revolutionary.
    Just hoping this isn't going to be like all those hopeful comments on the cricket....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    Liz Truss after 6 months in office as PM.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.

    Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.

    Top man!!!

    On manouevres.

    Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.

    If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
  • Mortimer said:

    eek said:

    Mortimer said:

    Taz said:

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
    Well, I know roughly what I'd do (off the top of my head, serious incentives for investment and some direct investment, improvement of public transport links, adult retraining expansion, financed by a new band on income tax above (say) £70K, a wealth tax and a spread of council tax bands both at the top and the bottom), but I can't speak for the leadership who I'm sure will be less radical - and they'll only say when an election actually comes round for all the usual reasons. I agree with your posts that the North has merely shifted from "Oh, let's try the Tories" to "God, that was bad, but is Labour any better?" I'm reasonably hopeful that we'll get to a more positive point.
    Massive taxes on aspiration. Same old Labour.

    One day they'll realise that it actually pays to grow the economy, rather than squeeze people's income....
    Money has to come from somewhere and the only other option is a wealth tax - which you would equally hate.
    Money comes from growing the economy....
    It’s a rare alignment of the stars to basically have all three major parties in favour of higher taxes (whatever Rishi may claim). I can’t see it lasting…
  • eek said:

    Mortimer said:

    Taz said:

    I'm wary of the switch in narrative from "Will Labour ever win again?" to "The Tories are doomed". I think Johnson's ratings will stabilise and improve a bit if we do gradually emerge from the pandemic. But it does look as though the Red Wall has seen through the Tory rhetoric - as Mike says, 51% is a hell of a shift.

    There's nothing unusual in trying something different from what you're used to and then thinking yuck, this is worse!

    So what is your parties offer to the red wall going to be ? It seems all labour are doing is waiting for us to see the error of our ways and come home to deliver more lobby fodder to support a future labour govt.

    The same red wall labour took for granted for so many years because we sent MPs back to parliament with thumping majorities.

    There is no love, from what I can see, for labour more a general disdain for the Tories who made a promise and reneged on it.
    Well, I know roughly what I'd do (off the top of my head, serious incentives for investment and some direct investment, improvement of public transport links, adult retraining expansion, financed by a new band on income tax above (say) £70K, a wealth tax and a spread of council tax bands both at the top and the bottom), but I can't speak for the leadership who I'm sure will be less radical - and they'll only say when an election actually comes round for all the usual reasons. I agree with your posts that the North has merely shifted from "Oh, let's try the Tories" to "God, that was bad, but is Labour any better?" I'm reasonably hopeful that we'll get to a more positive point.
    Massive taxes on aspiration. Same old Labour.

    One day they'll realise that it actually pays to grow the economy, rather than squeeze people's income....
    Money has to come from somewhere and the only other option is a wealth tax - which you would equally hate.
    Wealth taxes ultimately damage investment, which in turn damage fledgling companies and pension funds, which in turn hits the prosperity of everyone. It is why most sensible Labour governments have avoided them. Taxation is very similar to some dodgy insurance policies; the small print is intentionally complex so that the majority dont read it and those that do don't understand it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257

    Dura_Ace said:

    Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.

    Putin has morphed into Boris 2019?
    Other way round. Johnson is adopting Putin's post 2010 strategy. Engage the stupidest and oldest section with banale nationalism and the synthesis of external threats.
  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    20m
    This is politically brave from Andy Burnham. And correct.
  • Cookie said:

    BBC radio news now shifting the argument: actually hospitalisations aren't important, it's case numbers which should guide policy on lockdowns.
    Honestly, BBC (and Sky, while we're at it), just fuck off.
    If there is to be a reckoning at the end of all this, the BBC come pretty close to the top of the list of villains of the piece.

    It is not just hospitalisations that matter. Reduced capacity is the other side of the coin, with health workers off sick or self-isolating. And that brings us back to case numbers.
  • Eabhal said:

    Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.

    Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.

    Top man!!!

    On manouevres.

    Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.

    If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
    Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Dura_Ace said:

    Putin's press conference is a bit of an anti-climax so far. He's boring on about high speed rail and levelling up Nizhny Novgorod. Maybe he's saving the war for the end.

    At least he said 'up' after 'levelling...'
  • Eabhal said:

    Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.

    Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.

    Top man!!!

    On manouevres.

    Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.

    If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
    Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
    And yet he's still light years ahead of Oh Dear Starmer.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    edited December 2021


    ...




    This should be on 48 sheets everywhere. It would make the perfect Labour poster. Up there with 'Labour Isn't Working' and Milliband in Salmond's pocket.

    It would make even the Hartlipudlians blush
  • Eabhal said:

    Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.

    Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.

    Top man!!!

    On manouevres.

    Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.

    If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
    Burnham is, was and always will be a lightweight
  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    20m
    This is politically brave from Andy Burnham. And correct.

    What is?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,799
    edited December 2021
    Data on the anecdata I observed two days ago:

    Data from @OpenTableUK show the seven-day average estimate of UK seated diners fell 14 percentage points in the week to 20 Dec 2021, to 88% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019

    This is the lowest level since the week ending 17 May 2021 http://ow.ly/jMkG50Hi438


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1473954834810384390?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall

    Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return

    Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
    How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    The Tories have an uphill mountain to climb. It is hard to see how they can overturn their deficit with the current set up anytime soon and the press who were onside have turned against Johnson while those that were never fans are just sticking the knife in at every opportunity. He will never be forgiven by some in the media for his role in the Brext vote.

    Next year is just going to be one set of bad news after the other. There will be a true cost of living crisis with rising inflation, tax increases and fuel increasing. It is going to get very ugly I'm afraid.

    It feels a bit like Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1981 when everyone was convinced she was about to be forced out of office by riots, recession, strikes, unemployment, etc.
    No doubt had PB been around at the time we would have had OGH doing threads about how the Tories needed to ditch Thatcher for Francis Pym to stay in office otherwise Roy Jenkins would become PM of an SDP led government
    I wonder what quiet negotiations Ms Truss' department is involved in which will encourage some foreign government, needing positive publicity, to make a grab for British territory? And which member of our government will realise what is happening, blow the whistle and cause said foreign government to act prematurely?
    Would we go to war for Northern Ireland?
    Well it wouldn't take as long to send the task force if Northern Ireland was invaded!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Roger said:

    ...




    This should be on 48 sheets everywhere. It would make the perfect Labour poster. Up there with 'Labour Isn't Working' and Milliband in Salmond's pocket.

    It would make even the Hartlipudlians blush


    There are way too many attack lines now available against Boris which is why the question is one of when will Boris go rather than will Boris go..
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    Eabhal said:

    Burnham tells BBC Breakfast that the government is right not to put restrictions on at this stage.

    Worried about mental health at this stage of pandemic if we do lockdowns again.

    Top man!!!

    On manouevres.

    Starmer can't pivot to opening stuff up faster now, so there is a gap for Burnham to fill.

    If he starts talking about the young, getting people back into school, that report that showed lockdown harmed minorities and the poor more than the rich...
    Except Burnham is rubbish who has flopped in two previous leadership elections.
    I instinctively like him far more than Starmer. If he were LOTO I could imagine him pushing really hard for compensation for the hospitality sector (a la Manchester last year), and making a huge political fuss out of it.

    However, your tips have earnt me significant £££ so will defer to your superior wisdom this time round.
This discussion has been closed.