On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The thing is, that it’s not something that can just be ‘reversed’ back to the status quo ante. The accession process takes years, and would require a level of integration much further than was the case in the organisation we left.
Think that argument is a little oversold. It isn't like we'd be from a standing start. Anyway. I've no urgent desire to re-open the tired old arguments. But plenty are. And I can't see them just withering away.
On the topic of making vaccination more routine, my GP clinic nonchalantly invited me to an anti-shingles jab this week, as part of a campaign to vaccinate people in the 70-80 range - exactly as though nothing else much was happening. So at least that GP doesn't seem to be swamped.
That's a nice piece - an d makes an interesting point:
"But you can only keep lockdowns out of bounds if you expand healthcare capacity and if you rethink other policy choices: it may be, for instance, that the cost-benefit of making flu jabs free at the point of use only for certain groups needs to be revisited, and that we should maintain a permanent infrastructure to provide regular free inoculations against the flu, against Covid-19, and expand the number of free vaccinations, so that diseases such as pneumonia and chickenpox are also fought via inoculation as a rule, rather than as the exception. (And, of course, new treatments also make it easier to manage Covid-19)
One barrier to getting there, though, is that the Conservative government isn’t being honest (even with itself) about what has really driven its decision-making since March 2020: and that lack of clarity may have catastrophic consequences."
When does Drakeford reverse ferret on restrictions in Wales?
He won't, as was pointed out last night. He'll just call Westminster irresponsible and hope no one notices that England is getting on fine in January without those idiotic restrictions.
How are Scotland and Wales going to compensate businesses affected by the restrictions they’re introducing? Are Drakeford and Sturgeon going to have to raise their own tax base to pay for it?
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The thing is, that it’s not something that can just be ‘reversed’ back to the status quo ante. The accession process takes years, and would require a level of integration much further than was the case in the organisation we left.
Sure. That's part of the conundrum.
A significant (but resistable for now) force of public opinion meeting a difficult (but not impossible) to move object of Brejoin being awkward.
And that sort of status quo can persist for quite a while. But as an interesting experiment in national psychology (and it is interesting), I'd rather be an observer than a participant.
Anyway, the children are out and the shops are calling.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
When does Drakeford reverse ferret on restrictions in Wales?
He won't, as was pointed out last night. He'll just call Westminster irresponsible and hope no one notices that England is getting on fine in January without those idiotic restrictions.
Thing is, they're going to discover that those restrictions won't make very little difference. So it'll be interesting to see if they double down and bring in more restrictions later.
So we know there's no chance of anything happening now with cabinet until at least Wednesday and a vote potentially on Thursday or Friday if cabinet agrees anything. That takes us to next week's incidental/non-incidental hospitalisations report. If it's anything like this week then I can't see how lockdown goes ahead at all. We'll just cough our way through January and get on with life.
Well done to @kinabalu who called it and has been very relaxed about no lockdowns. I really thought the lockdown ultras would get their one final wish to extinguish socialising and fun. It seems not.
They've still managed to wreck my plans for next week though due to Sturgeon's inability to wait and see
That's shitty. It's really worrying that "wait and for evidence" was cast as the irresponsible option by politicians and the media while rushing headlong into restrictions without actual evidence is deemed as being cautious.
It seems that finally the politicians have woken up to the fact that lockdown is anything but cautious.
"Separately, Danish data showed that among people who tested positive between November 22 and December 15, Omicron cases were three times less likely to be admitted to hospital than cases with other variants. But experts warned that the concentration of Omicron outbreaks among younger groups could skew the data.
(Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants)
“It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease,” said Henrik Ullum, director of the Statens Serum Institut, Denmark’s public health agency, in a press conference on Wednesday."
Does anyone know if the Scottish study was similarly age corrected?
I have tracked down the Scottish paper, and it does adjust for age, vaccine status, SE status by Scottish quintiles and clinical risk. It seems a lot to pile onto 15 admissions, but they did it.
I haven't seen the Scottish report, but are you saying that certain folk are partly justifying the neglect of further measures on the basis of a multifactorial study with total n = 15?!
20,000 Omicron cases, 15 hospitalisations IIRC.
Thanks - that makes much better sense, even if the details miught still be a bit iffy re the different cofactors.
Yep it was fit for all radio news information.
Edit: my question was I didn't think we were up to 20,000 Omicron cases in total in the UK so no idea where the study was from.
When does Drakeford reverse ferret on restrictions in Wales?
He won't, as was pointed out last night. He'll just call Westminster irresponsible and hope no one notices that England is getting on fine in January without those idiotic restrictions.
How are Scotland and Wales going to compensate businesses affected by the restrictions they’re introducing? Are Drakeford and Sturgeon going to have to raise their own tax base to pay for it?
They will just claim the Westminster government are starving them of funds.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Using that argument, by voting Conservative, you have to endorse a whole load of swivel-eyed loons on the Tory benches.
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
Those swivel eyed loons just saved Christmas and have seen off any potential panic lockdowns in England.
Winston S. Churchill: 'The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes.'
So we know there's no chance of anything happening now with cabinet until at least Wednesday and a vote potentially on Thursday or Friday if cabinet agrees anything. That takes us to next week's incidental/non-incidental hospitalisations report. If it's anything like this week then I can't see how lockdown goes ahead at all. We'll just cough our way through January and get on with life.
Well done to @kinabalu who called it and has been very relaxed about no lockdowns. I really thought the lockdown ultras would get their one final wish to extinguish socialising and fun. It seems not.
They've still managed to wreck my plans for next week though due to Sturgeon's inability to wait and see
That's shitty. It's really worrying that "wait and for evidence" was cast as the irresponsible option by politicians and the media while rushing headlong into restrictions without actual evidence is deemed as being cautious.
It seems that finally the politicians have woken up to the fact that lockdown is anything but cautious.
The thing is I have no problem with locking down very early on - because we didn't know how infectious and serious it is - so best to be safe rather than sorry.
And I have no problem with locking down later when it's clear that we need to due to hospitalisation numbers.
It's the current half baked approach that solves nothing that I completely hate - you decided to wait and see, so could you kindly wait and see as nothing anywhere is screaming Panic at the moment.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
We're used to it with our voting system I'm afraid. A majority continually voted against Thatcher and Blair. Didn't stop them reigning supreme for a decade each.
Yes but those were not binary votes. Dont disagree that the voting system could do with reform though. Sadly that bus has also been missed.
I haven’t seen any really good analysis of the runners and riders to replace Boris, ie with an informed understanding of the selectorate(s).
Both parliamentary party and membership are notably more rabid than even five years ago. For that reason, I can’t see Hunt or Tugendhat putting up a credible bid.
Mordaunt is too junior. Patel too hated, and thought incompetent. Gove alienates the public. Raab too. It’s not clear that Wallace wants it.
That leaves Truss, Rishi, Harper, and Javid as the only serious possibilities in my view.
But then it gets hard. I think if Truss gets through to the membership, she gets it, but I can’t read the internal party dynamics.
Truss’ success or lack thereof will probably depend on how she comes over in a campaign. The membership love her, but I suspect that support could be quite soft if she doesn’t strike the right tone in the campaign. Worth remembering that she struggles presentationally at times (she has gotten better since The Cheese Speech but she can still be hit and miss). If in debates it comes across as the return of the Maybot she might lose some support.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
We're used to it with our voting system I'm afraid. A majority continually voted against Thatcher and Blair. Didn't stop them reigning supreme for a decade each.
Using your logic a far, far, far bigger majority voted against Merkel. Didn't stop her from reigning supreme for over a decade.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
The pressure is similar in effect to my complaining that Labour needs more interesting policies. Starmer knows perfectly well that leftists like me will vote Labour in the end anyway, so he needn't bother to take account of my whingeing. I'm afraid that you will similarly be shrugged off by Tory strategists. They will take more interest in people like Nigel Foreman who say they might possibly vote Labour if...
My likelihood of voting labour would increase if they had fewer policies. Virtually everything in the last manifesto would make things worse even if a good deal of it had good intentions. Labour are dominated by the ideologically driven and are a conduit for bad ideas. If they propose a practical set of policies, some redistribution of wealth, taking on special interest groups, fairer taxation and look like they can be trusted on freedom of speech and dial down social engineering then I'm in. Otherwise I'll go LibDem I suppose.
I haven’t seen any really good analysis of the runners and riders to replace Boris, ie with an informed understanding of the selectorate(s).
Both parliamentary party and membership are notably more rabid than even five years ago. For that reason, I can’t see Hunt or Tugendhat putting up a credible bid.
Mordaunt is too junior. Patel too hated, and thought incompetent. Gove alienates the public. Raab too. It’s not clear that Wallace wants it.
That leaves Truss, Rishi, Harper, and Javid as the only serious possibilities in my view.
But then it gets hard. I think if Truss gets through to the membership, she gets it, but I can’t read the internal party dynamics.
Truss’ success or lack thereof will probably depend on how she comes over in a campaign. The membership love her, but I suspect that support could be quite soft if she doesn’t strike the right tone in the campaign. Worth remembering that she struggles presentationally at times (she has gotten better since The Cheese Speech but she can still be hit and miss). If in debates it comes across as the return of the Maybot she might lose some support.
Speech making is in the eye of the beholder to some extent. The current leader is believed by some to be a great orator, even after the Peppa Pig episode.
This extraordinary piece about Liz Truss is striking for so many reasons - insights into what makes her the greatest survivor in cabinet and what her leadership campaign will be like (at a time when there isn’t a vacancy👀)
On the topic of making vaccination more routine, my GP clinic nonchalantly invited me to an anti-shingles jab this week, as part of a campaign to vaccinate people in the 70-80 range - exactly as though nothing else much was happening. So at least that GP doesn't seem to be swamped.
That's a nice piece - an d makes an interesting point:
"But you can only keep lockdowns out of bounds if you expand healthcare capacity and if you rethink other policy choices: it may be, for instance, that the cost-benefit of making flu jabs free at the point of use only for certain groups needs to be revisited, and that we should maintain a permanent infrastructure to provide regular free inoculations against the flu, against Covid-19, and expand the number of free vaccinations, so that diseases such as pneumonia and chickenpox are also fought via inoculation as a rule, rather than as the exception. (And, of course, new treatments also make it easier to manage Covid-19)
One barrier to getting there, though, is that the Conservative government isn’t being honest (even with itself) about what has really driven its decision-making since March 2020: and that lack of clarity may have catastrophic consequences."
Over the last several aiui boosters have been running at 0.5% or so per pop per day whilst running normal healthcare at a high level (85-90%), and still being in the pandemic with hospitalisations at a lowish, flat level - so part of it will be about avoiding the need for surge vaccination campaigns as far as possible.
I note one or two of the Conservative-inclined on here are putting the notion about that somehow the Conservatives "saved" Christmas and Labour would have ruined Christmas.
Yes, 98 Conservative MPs voted against the introduction of Covid passes but there were many more Conservative MPs who voted to support them and the measure would have gone through even if every Labour MP had abstained.
It's also worth recognising the 8 Labour MPs, 10 Liberal Democrats, 2 Independent MPs (Jeremy Corbyn and Rob Roberts), 6 DUP MPs and Caroline Lucas who also voted against the proposal.
Perhaps it's just as accurate to argue Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron and Iain Paisley Junior saved Christmas - now, there's a thought....
I haven’t seen any really good analysis of the runners and riders to replace Boris, ie with an informed understanding of the selectorate(s).
Both parliamentary party and membership are notably more rabid than even five years ago. For that reason, I can’t see Hunt or Tugendhat putting up a credible bid.
Mordaunt is too junior. Patel too hated, and thought incompetent. Gove alienates the public. Raab too. It’s not clear that Wallace wants it.
That leaves Truss, Rishi, Harper, and Javid as the only serious possibilities in my view.
But then it gets hard. I think if Truss gets through to the membership, she gets it, but I can’t read the internal party dynamics.
Truss’ success or lack thereof will probably depend on how she comes over in a campaign. The membership love her, but I suspect that support could be quite soft if she doesn’t strike the right tone in the campaign. Worth remembering that she struggles presentationally at times (she has gotten better since The Cheese Speech but she can still be hit and miss). If in debates it comes across as the return of the Maybot she might lose some support.
Truss has one good way to leapfrog Rishi and become overwhelming favourite: Invoke Article 16 and resolve the NI situation.
If Johnson doesn't let her invoke Article 16, she could resign and bring him down and run as favourite in the following leadership election.
"Separately, Danish data showed that among people who tested positive between November 22 and December 15, Omicron cases were three times less likely to be admitted to hospital than cases with other variants. But experts warned that the concentration of Omicron outbreaks among younger groups could skew the data.
(Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants)
“It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease,” said Henrik Ullum, director of the Statens Serum Institut, Denmark’s public health agency, in a press conference on Wednesday."
Does anyone know if the Scottish study was similarly age corrected?
I have tracked down the Scottish paper, and it does adjust for age, vaccine status, SE status by Scottish quintiles and clinical risk. It seems a lot to pile onto 15 admissions, but they did it.
I haven't seen the Scottish report, but are you saying that certain folk are partly justifying the neglect of further measures on the basis of a multifactorial study with total n = 15?!
20,000 Omicron cases, 15 hospitalisations IIRC.
Thanks - that makes much better sense, even if the details miught still be a bit iffy re the different cofactors.
Yep it was fit for all radio news information.
Edit: my question was I didn't think we were up to 20,000 Omicron cases in total in the UK so no idea where the study was from.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
Possibly. It will be a bit like finding a Tory MP who admits to have been genuinely convinced that Boris Johnson was a good choice
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
What was the name of that movie, where the plot is a media company starting a world war because they know it will be great for ratings?
The local papers up here I follow on facebook are by far and away the worst offenders. It is just a stream of clickbait articles with very gloomy headlines.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
I agree with all of that. But the one concern that has just struck me (and I am somewhat surprised I have not thought about it before) is how you switch to a contributory based system without the opposition - both inside and outside whichever party is in power at the time - screaming about harming the least fortunate. I am not sue it is a policy that could ever be implemented no matter how sensible it might be.
"The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ... 🤔"
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
I agree with all of that. But the one concern that has just struck me (and I am somewhat surprised I have not thought about it before) is how you switch to a contributory based system without the opposition - both inside and outside whichever party is in power at the time - screaming about harming the least fortunate. I am not sue it is a policy that could ever be implemented no matter how sensible it might be.
Like Nixon in China, can only be done by the Labour Party.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
There 'remains' great hope for the Tories and possibly even for Boris as long as the 'rogers' of this world keep banging on about Europe. I love living in Spain but with just 70% of the over 60s boosted and cases surging while most of the younger groups are moving well past 6 months since dose 2 a number of EU countries have really dropped the vaccine ball..again. But never mind - socialist PM Sanchez has announced compulsory masks out in the open air for everyone. That should sort it!
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
Um no. This is fantasy land. The main issue with Brexit right now is that its implementation is connected so thoroughly with Johnson. Once he is gone the whole landscape changes. A less confrontational relationship with the EU, plus its own evolution into something even less attractive to the UK public will ensure there is no majority for rejoin when the time comes. Face it Roger, you are one of the dinosaurs after the comet has struck. You just haven't realised you are already extinct.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
There 'remains' great hope for the Tories and possibly even for Boris as long as the 'rogers' of this world keep banging on about Europe. I love living in Spain but with just 70% of the over 60s boosted and cases surging while most of the younger groups are moving well past 6 months since dose 2 a number of EU countries have really dropped the vaccine ball..again. But never mind - socialist PM Sanchez has announced compulsory masks out in the open air for everyone. That should sort it!
Yes if Boris gets a booster bounce and the likes of Roger from his South of France villa keep talking about 'extraordinary' figures of 49% rejoin being used by Starmer and Davey to drive over the Redwall anything could happen next year
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
What was the name of that movie, where the plot is a media company starting a world war because they know it will be great for ratings?
The local papers up here I follow on facebook are by far and away the worst offenders. It is just a stream of clickbait articles with very gloomy headlines.
The biggest problem local papers have is Facebook. The local classified advertising, that was their bread and butter for decades, is now all online.
"The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ... 🤔"
Labour's position on covid has always confused me a bit.
The most restrictions sceptic / vaxx sceptic voters (the young and ethnic minority voters) are firmly in their column right?
Sir Keir thinks he's awfully clever splitting the tories like he is. Maybe not?
I don’t think it’ll harm him particularly. Covid may or may not be an election issue but by 2024 I think we will all be hoping it’s not. Better to get an in with the older voters about protecting their health and the NHS than worry about the young, who are less likely to vote and if they do are unlikely to shift en masse from Labour on the basis purely of Covid policy.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
Um no. This is fantasy land. The main issue with Brexit right now is that its implementation is connected so thoroughly with Johnson. Once he is gone the whole landscape changes. A less confrontational relationship with the EU, plus its own evolution into something even less attractive to the UK public will ensure there is no majority for rejoin when the time comes. Face it Roger, you are one of the dinosaurs after the comet has struck. You just haven't realised you are already extinct.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
What was the name of that movie, where the plot is a media company starting a world war because they know it will be great for ratings?
The local papers up here I follow on facebook are by far and away the worst offenders. It is just a stream of clickbait articles with very gloomy headlines.
The biggest problem local papers have is Facebook. The local classified advertising, that was their bread and butter for decades, is now all online.
Reach (Mirror Group) own lots of them now. It seems their model is to try to go digital and their group of websites share economies of scale.
The problem with that is that the EU then had Jacques Delores who not only had a name that famously rhymed with "up yours" but made pronouncements that were a gift to British EU-phobes and xenophobic tabloid newspapers
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
It was not the welfare system that drove the Leave vote, the vast majority of Eastern European migrants came to work and worked very hard. It was the downward pressure on working class wages and the pressure on housing and public services free movement caused that was the issue. We have a Canada style trade deal with the EU now and more effective points based immigration system anyway.
Personally though while I would favour a more contributory system, which JSA now is anyway based on NI credits, I would not scrap non contributory benefits like UC either. A few people simply cannot get jobs though UC helps them get the skills and training to do so while claiming.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
If the track record of Remainers organising online is anything to go by, it'll be the biggest laughing stock of a political campaign since Alba.
Remain/Rejoin can only win if it can show a positive vision of the UK in the EU rather than the current Guardianesque prevailing view of "You working class morons ruined my skiing holiday to France!" and 5 years since the referendum I'd say the most hardcore remainers have only doubled down.
Rejoin sounds like it could be a compelling argument, then you look at the arguments against it:
1. If we rejoin, there will be zip, nada, no opt outs, rebates or special treatments. The EU won’t be in the mindset to let us in on a semi-detached basis again. If we are in, we are in. We sign up to everything and we are fully on board The Project.
2. That in itself leads to a big question about Euro implementation. Whether rightly or wrongly that will be a huge stick for the anti-rejoin camp.
3. We assume that our membership application wouldn’t get vetoed.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
It was not the welfare system that drove the Leave vote, the vast majority of Eastern European migrants came to work and worked very hard. It was the downward pressure on working class wages and the pressure on housing and public services free movement caused that was the issue. We have a Canada style trade deal with the EU now and more effective points based immigration system anyway.
Personally though while I would favour a more contributory system, which JSA now is anyway based on NI credits, I would not scrap non contributory benefits like UC either. A few people simply cannot get jobs though UC helps them get the skills and training to do so while claiming.
You haven't given any thought to the plan. UC is contribution based - the last 2 years of a children's education (age 16-18) is used as the initial qualifying contribution.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
I would have thought you were more likely to be RefUK than any of the main parties anyway
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
I agree with all of that. But the one concern that has just struck me (and I am somewhat surprised I have not thought about it before) is how you switch to a contributory based system without the opposition - both inside and outside whichever party is in power at the time - screaming about harming the least fortunate. I am not sue it is a policy that could ever be implemented no matter how sensible it might be.
As I posted below - and it's worth repeating. You treat education at age 16-18 as the initial contribution..
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Using that argument, by voting Conservative, you have to endorse a whole load of swivel-eyed loons on the Tory benches.
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
A fair comment, though when I was a Tory activist and voter I knew that the swivel-eyed loons were very much in the minority. They are now not so, and we have a man who is totally unfit for office as leader. If the Tories kick out the clown and someone sensible takes over and Rees Mogg is returned to back benches then I could return to voting for them. If Labour do a really good job in convincing me that the Corbynites are emasculated and Rayner is nowhere near power I could seriously consider voting for them. My little vote (and possibly quite a few others) is genuinely "floating"
Not only are the Corbynites emasculated at parliamentary level, this is also happening on the NEC and increasingly at constituency level too. On the latter point, mainly because a lot of them have skulked off back to whichever fringe outfit they came from or have been expelled/suspended.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
It was not the welfare system that drove the Leave vote, the vast majority of Eastern European migrants came to work and worked very hard. It was the downward pressure on working class wages and the pressure on housing and public services free movement caused that was the issue. We have a Canada style trade deal with the EU now and more effective points based immigration system anyway.
Personally though while I would favour a more contributory system, which JSA now is anyway based on NI credits, I would not scrap non contributory benefits like UC either. A few people simply cannot get jobs though UC helps them get the skills and training to do so while claiming.
You haven't given any thought to the plan. UC is contribution based - the last 2 years of a children's education (age 16-18) is used as the initial qualifying contribution.
No it isn't, you can claim UC even if over 18 with no children having never worked if you have few savings.
You could not now claim JSA though which is contributory
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
"The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ... 🤔"
Labour's position on covid has always confused me a bit.
The most restrictions sceptic / vaxx sceptic voters (the young and ethnic minority voters) are firmly in their column right?
Sir Keir thinks he's awfully clever splitting the tories like he is. Maybe not?
I don’t think it’ll harm him particularly. Covid may or may not be an election issue but by 2024 I think we will all be hoping it’s not. Better to get an in with the older voters about protecting their health and the NHS than worry about the young, who are less likely to vote and if they do are unlikely to shift en masse from Labour on the basis purely of Covid policy.
I thought the Lab position on Covid was that did not have a clear position on Covid.
So we know there's no chance of anything happening now with cabinet until at least Wednesday and a vote potentially on Thursday or Friday if cabinet agrees anything. That takes us to next week's incidental/non-incidental hospitalisations report. If it's anything like this week then I can't see how lockdown goes ahead at all. We'll just cough our way through January and get on with life.
Well done to @kinabalu who called it and has been very relaxed about no lockdowns. I really thought the lockdown ultras would get their one final wish to extinguish socialising and fun. It seems not.
They've still managed to wreck my plans for next week though due to Sturgeon's inability to wait and see
Yes. My little group of football fans treat ourselves to the "hospitality" once a year. It was scheduled for Sunday 2nd January, with a public holiday the day after to "recover". The match is now on a Monday night, 1st February.
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Using that argument, by voting Conservative, you have to endorse a whole load of swivel-eyed loons on the Tory benches.
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
A fair comment, though when I was a Tory activist and voter I knew that the swivel-eyed loons were very much in the minority. They are now not so, and we have a man who is totally unfit for office as leader. If the Tories kick out the clown and someone sensible takes over and Rees Mogg is returned to back benches then I could return to voting for them. If Labour do a really good job in convincing me that the Corbynites are emasculated and Rayner is nowhere near power I could seriously consider voting for them. My little vote (and possibly quite a few others) is genuinely "floating"
Not only are the Corbynites emasculated at parliamentary level, this is also happening on the NEC and increasingly at constituency level too. On the latter point, mainly because a lot of them have skulked off back to whichever fringe outfit they came from or have been expelled/suspended.
I hope you are right. Decent politics can only return to this Island when there is a sensible alternative party of government
Totally agree with Mike which chimes with what I'm picking up anecdotally.
On covid, I'm desperate for this bloody thing to end. But so were those in WW2 and what Winston Churchill did NOT do was make false promises about the end of the war. In fact, he did the opposite.
Whilst I understand the desire to latch onto scraps of data, I remain cautious. This is not the time to hang out the bunting. We may yet see the worst of this pandemic in January and February.
Only because they want more vaccines transferred to the developing world to reduce the threat of mutations. No reason you cannot get boosters done for most adults, as we are doing, then transfer spare vaccines to Africa etc
Who are these 10%, 7% and 6% that clearly need urgent medical help?
You beat me to the comment I was about to make. I am not sure whether it is reassuring or not to think that considerably less people think that Johnson is honest, trustworthy etc. than think the earth is actually flat!
What is more reassuring is that the number of people that Boris Johnson can fool all of the time is falling even further.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
Only because they want more vaccines transferred to the developing world to reduce the threat of mutations. No reason you cannot get boosters done for most adults, as we are doing, then transfer spare vaccines to Africa etc
But it won't reduce the threat of mutations. More vaxxed = more selection pressure against vaccines = more mutations. Omicron seems to have come from an animal reservoir anyway.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
It was not the welfare system that drove the Leave vote, the vast majority of Eastern European migrants came to work and worked very hard. It was the downward pressure on working class wages and the pressure on housing and public services free movement caused that was the issue. We have a Canada style trade deal with the EU now and more effective points based immigration system anyway.
Personally though while I would favour a more contributory system, which JSA now is anyway based on NI credits, I would not scrap non contributory benefits like UC either. A few people simply cannot get jobs though UC helps them get the skills and training to do so while claiming.
You haven't given any thought to the plan. UC is contribution based - the last 2 years of a children's education (age 16-18) is used as the initial qualifying contribution.
No it isn't, you can claim UC even if over 18 with no children having never worked if you have few savings.
You could not now claim JSA though which is contributory
In the current world - now go back and see how I've transformed UC into a "contributary" based system in such a way that it works exactly the same way as it does before except that immigrants can no longer immediately claim it.
And if you don't think it was a problem - I have a bridge to sell you. Round about 2016 (and probably a lot earlier) the eastern Europeans were way better informed about what they could claim and how than most of the local population.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
It was not the welfare system that drove the Leave vote, the vast majority of Eastern European migrants came to work and worked very hard. It was the downward pressure on working class wages and the pressure on housing and public services free movement caused that was the issue. We have a Canada style trade deal with the EU now and more effective points based immigration system anyway.
Personally though while I would favour a more contributory system, which JSA now is anyway based on NI credits, I would not scrap non contributory benefits like UC either. A few people simply cannot get jobs though UC helps them get the skills and training to do so while claiming.
You haven't given any thought to the plan. UC is contribution based - the last 2 years of a children's education (age 16-18) is used as the initial qualifying contribution.
I think both are issues, ie both the unfairness of accessing social systems without contribution, and the strain on local education, housing provision etc.
Communities receiving immigrants should be in receipt of proportional funds from central govt.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
Totally agree with Mike which chimes with what I'm picking up anecdotally.
On covid, I'm desperate for this bloody thing to end. But so were those in WW2 and what Winston Churchill did NOT do was make false promises about the end of the war. In fact, he did the opposite.
Whilst I understand the desire to latch onto scraps of data, I remain cautious. This is not the time to hang out the bunting. We may yet see the worst of this pandemic in January and February.
Indeed. There is a huge amount of blowhard dweebery based on not much beyond Theobald Smith and a study of myxy in Australian rabbits about how viruses inevitably get milder (who hasn't shaken off a slight touch of rabies in their time?) Even if it's true, evolution allows a fair amount of zigging and zagging on the way to the omega point.
They are ringing their bells, but soon they will be wringing their hands.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
See my post upthread.
I’m not sure there’s any ideological difference between Truss and Rishi.
There seems to be no viable red wall friendly candidate, although Javid could come through the middle of a leadership contest on the back of red wall MP votes.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
If the track record of Remainers organising online is anything to go by, it'll be the biggest laughing stock of a political campaign since Alba.
Remain/Rejoin can only win if it can show a positive vision of the UK in the EU rather than the current Guardianesque prevailing view of "You working class morons ruined my skiing holiday to France!" and 5 years since the referendum I'd say the most hardcore remainers have only doubled down.
A lot of people who were remainers were sore losers. A lot of leavers carry on being wankers and this post underlines that. thankfully there are some posters on here who voted leave but realise there is a point when it is good to stop being divisive. You clearly are not one of these.
When does Drakeford reverse ferret on restrictions in Wales?
He won't, as was pointed out last night. He'll just call Westminster irresponsible and hope no one notices that England is getting on fine in January without those idiotic restrictions.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
When was the last polls asking the direct question? Last one I could find asked when the decision was right or wrong..... ire w=not the same question. And Wrong to Leave had a clear majority.
Plus, of course the pro-EU side would not be led by incompetent Tories.
Best Source is "What UK thinks". Their most recent "2016 redone" poll is Remain 45, Leave 36, Don't Know 18.
Tricky to compare directly with the 2016 results, because they didn't allow DK. If you just ignore the don't knows, you get R56 L44.
Now, this isn't going to reverse anything tomorrow. But I do wonder what happens to a country where the Powers That Be refuse to discuss (or even double down) on something that a plurality-to-majority think is a mistake and would prefer to reverse.
The Tories will obviously not consider rejoin as most of their voters would then go RefUK.
Labour won't either as if they do bang goes the Redwall and Starmer's chance of most seats ( remember Leave may only have got 52% but it won 2/3 of Westminster constituencies as Remain piled up huge leads in the inner cities and university towns).
The LDs likely would given most of their voters are and were Remainers as would the SNP but both would likely settle for EEA or EFTA or closer SM and CU alignment for now if Starmer needed their support to become PM
In five years time nobody will admit to having voted Brexit.
We won't rejoin the EU as that requires joining the Euro which would be a distinct point too far.
EEA or EFTA or closer alignment makes sense once the zealots have seen the reality to most of our exports are to Europe and some fixes the free movement issue by switching our benefits system to "contribution" based
It was not the welfare system that drove the Leave vote, the vast majority of Eastern European migrants came to work and worked very hard. It was the downward pressure on working class wages and the pressure on housing and public services free movement caused that was the issue. We have a Canada style trade deal with the EU now and more effective points based immigration system anyway.
Personally though while I would favour a more contributory system, which JSA now is anyway based on NI credits, I would not scrap non contributory benefits like UC either. A few people simply cannot get jobs though UC helps them get the skills and training to do so while claiming.
You haven't given any thought to the plan. UC is contribution based - the last 2 years of a children's education (age 16-18) is used as the initial qualifying contribution.
I think both are issues, ie both the unfairness of accessing social systems without contribution, and the strain on local education, housing provision etc.
Communities receiving immigrants should be in receipt of proportional funds from central govt.
Oh there was a lot of strain on local populations - the easiest test of that is to see how oversubscribed Catholic schools got.
My entire point is that if you treated attending education between ages 16-18 as a contribution to society, and say attached NI payments to attendance we could easily have a contribution based wealth system. And we should have done back in 2004-5 when most of the EU were saying you need to do this before you invite everyone in to work.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
I would have thought you were more likely to be RefUK than any of the main parties anyway
The only person on this entire site who seems to even care that RefUK exists and keeps talking them up is you.
They're an utter irrelevance or bad joke to everyone else it seems.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
It would be unwise for all the major parties to ignore the roughly half of the electorate who are/were in favour of being in the EU. It would have the same effect as UKIP in reverse - once the downsides of Brexit become clear. The Tories are lucky Covid has come along at exactly the right time to obscure all that. A nod in the direction of former Remainers and some fudge is fine for now.
There will be no pressure to rejoin until it's clear that Brexit has been a mistake, which will take a long time, combined with "something" that causes a sea change in opinion. I can't think what that will be but it will have to be big to overcome current instinctive general hostility to full-on EU integration and the Euro. And it will probably not be in my lifetime. Unfortunately.
Comments
It isn't like we'd be from a standing start. Anyway. I've no urgent desire to re-open the tired old arguments. But plenty are. And I can't see them just withering away.
"But you can only keep lockdowns out of bounds if you expand healthcare capacity and if you rethink other policy choices: it may be, for instance, that the cost-benefit of making flu jabs free at the point of use only for certain groups needs to be revisited, and that we should maintain a permanent infrastructure to provide regular free inoculations against the flu, against Covid-19, and expand the number of free vaccinations, so that diseases such as pneumonia and chickenpox are also fought via inoculation as a rule, rather than as the exception. (And, of course, new treatments also make it easier to manage Covid-19)
One barrier to getting there, though, is that the Conservative government isn’t being honest (even with itself) about what has really driven its decision-making since March 2020: and that lack of clarity may have catastrophic consequences."
A significant (but resistable for now) force of public opinion meeting a difficult (but not impossible) to move object of Brejoin being awkward.
And that sort of status quo can persist for quite a while. But as an interesting experiment in national psychology (and it is interesting), I'd rather be an observer than a participant.
Anyway, the children are out and the shops are calling.
@BallouxFrancois
The mood across the political spectrum about the necessity to acknowledge trade-offs in our pandemic response seems to be shifting so fast that it makes my head spin a little ...
It's backpeddle Thursday for the lockdown dickheads.
It seems that finally the politicians have woken up to the fact that lockdown is anything but cautious.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043466/20211222_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf
Like both 19% (-7)
Dislike both 44% (+4)
Like him, not policies 15% (=)
Like policies, not him 9% (+2)
DK 13% (+2)
2,096 UK adults, 17-19 Dec
(Changes from 19-21 Nov) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1473975234034384897/photo/1
Fanny Cradock would have loved it ...
And I have no problem with locking down later when it's clear that we need to due to hospitalisation numbers.
It's the current half baked approach that solves nothing that I completely hate - you decided to wait and see, so could you kindly wait and see as nothing anywhere is screaming Panic at the moment.
"Sky News - Omicron could still overwhelm"
https://youtu.be/4Ls_xUJfB9E
Aside from Brexit and levelling up what are his actual policies anyway ?
Liz Truss: the new Iron Lady?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/1ef602b8-61b3-11ec-ab46-99cae2b0f128?shareToken=24ef92fc2954f889a6303742810efaee
I would quite like it to be Truss. For the lolz...
I note one or two of the Conservative-inclined on here are putting the notion about that somehow the Conservatives "saved" Christmas and Labour would have ruined Christmas.
Yes, 98 Conservative MPs voted against the introduction of Covid passes but there were many more Conservative MPs who voted to support them and the measure would have gone through even if every Labour MP had abstained.
It's also worth recognising the 8 Labour MPs, 10 Liberal Democrats, 2 Independent MPs (Jeremy Corbyn and Rob Roberts), 6 DUP MPs and Caroline Lucas who also voted against the proposal.
Perhaps it's just as accurate to argue Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron and Iain Paisley Junior saved Christmas - now, there's a thought....
If Johnson doesn't let her invoke Article 16, she could resign and bring him down and run as favourite in the following leadership election.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
The PM has vacated his popular spot as the low(er)-tax, free-society Tory. So others are eyeing it up.
For today's @Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/22/tories-will-speak-liberty/
BBC News - Coldplay to stop making music as a band in 2025
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-59766719
The most restrictions sceptic / vaxx sceptic voters (the young and ethnic minority voters) are firmly in their column right?
Sir Keir thinks he's awfully clever splitting the tories like he is. Maybe not?
https://parlourmade.co.uk/product/durham-camembert/
I have seen it in Fenwicks food hall and artisan food shops in the North East.
As Sir Humphrey might say a very brave decision.
Personally though while I would favour a more contributory system, which JSA now is anyway based on NI credits, I would not scrap non contributory benefits like UC either. A few people simply cannot get jobs though UC helps them get the skills and training to do so while claiming.
Remain/Rejoin can only win if it can show a positive vision of the UK in the EU rather than the current Guardianesque prevailing view of "You working class morons ruined my skiing holiday to France!" and 5 years since the referendum I'd say the most hardcore remainers have only doubled down.
1. If we rejoin, there will be zip, nada, no opt outs, rebates or special treatments. The EU won’t be in the mindset to let us in on a semi-detached basis again. If we are in, we are in. We sign up to everything and we are fully on board The Project.
2. That in itself leads to a big question about Euro implementation. Whether rightly or wrongly that will be a huge stick for the anti-rejoin camp.
3. We assume that our membership application wouldn’t get vetoed.
🌳Boris Johnson
Honest 7% (-2)
Trustworthy 6% (-5)
Genuine 10% (-2)
2,096 UK adults, 17-19 Dec
(Changes from 19-21 Nov) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1473983920844718084/photo/1
You could not now claim JSA though which is contributory
Has someone said something that I missed?
It was scheduled for Sunday 2nd January, with a public holiday the day after to "recover".
The match is now on a Monday night, 1st February.
BBC News - Charles and Camilla to join Queen for Christmas Day
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59769243
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/who-says-covid-vaccine-booster-programs-will-prolong-pandemic.html
On covid, I'm desperate for this bloody thing to end. But so were those in WW2 and what Winston Churchill did NOT do was make false promises about the end of the war. In fact, he did the opposite.
Whilst I understand the desire to latch onto scraps of data, I remain cautious. This is not the time to hang out the bunting. We may yet see the worst of this pandemic in January and February.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
Which is quite impressive when you think about it.
What is more reassuring is that the number of people that Boris Johnson can fool all of the time is falling even further.
Mind you, Dr Kaufman nearly stole the show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH85zxU4tqU
And if you don't think it was a problem - I have a bridge to sell you. Round about 2016 (and probably a lot earlier) the eastern Europeans were way better informed about what they could claim and how than most of the local population.
Communities receiving immigrants should be in receipt of proportional funds from central govt.
They are ringing their bells, but soon they will be wringing their hands.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/21/dining/hawksmoor-steakhouse-review.html
I’m not sure there’s any ideological difference between Truss and Rishi.
There seems to be no viable red wall friendly candidate, although Javid could come through the middle of a leadership contest on the back of red wall MP votes.
My entire point is that if you treated attending education between ages 16-18 as a contribution to society, and say attached NI payments to attendance we could easily have a contribution based wealth system. And we should have done back in 2004-5 when most of the EU were saying you need to do this before you invite everyone in to work.
They're an utter irrelevance or bad joke to everyone else it seems.
There will be no pressure to rejoin until it's clear that Brexit has been a mistake, which will take a long time, combined with "something" that causes a sea change in opinion. I can't think what that will be but it will have to be big to overcome current instinctive general hostility to full-on EU integration and the Euro. And it will probably not be in my lifetime. Unfortunately.