In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
"The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK."
Quite impressed so many young people are coming forward - one of my friends is doing shuttle runs to a max-vaxx centre for people without a car (probably super spreading), and everyone is boasting about how long they queued on insta (3.5 hours at a mosque in Glasgow is the record).
I'd be surprised if it gets much higher before peaking tbh. Christmas init.
This sunday WILL be the peak for this round of jabs. Highest day for recording -> Christmas -> New Year -> Demand limitations.
Yes. 1,048,576 jabs I think.
If that's the peak then there's going to be a lot of people who haven't bothered to get their jab.
Dificulties ramping up delivery is what I hear. A friend who volunteered earlier in the year has re-volunteered but it's taking a time before his services can be used.
"The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK."
Dificulties ramping up delivery is what I hear. A friend who volunteered earlier in the year has re-volunteered but it's taking a time before his services can be used.
Mmm.Several of my friends are in the "would like to get booster but website currently offers no local sites to book into" boat...
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
Because Omicron can't be contained, unless you are going to go full China lockdown...only come out your house for the 30mins when the government tell you, floor by floor, block by block.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
In fairness, there were fewer people out last night in Manchester than there should have been two Thursdays before Christmas. But it was certainly not 'quiet'.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Fox Jr2 had a work do in Earls Court last night, and is having a party for his mates tonight.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
In fairness, there were fewer people out last night in Manchester than there should have been two Thursdays before Christmas. But it was certainly not 'quiet'.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Yes I agree. London is omicron-paranoid now. But the fear is not FEAR. Few are scared of dying of a terrible affliction. They (like me) are terrified of the dreaded 2 stripes and having to cancel Christmas.
It’s like we’ve all collectively decided to become hermits for the critical final week.
I am planning multiple meals out as soon as Boxing day is over and the relatives have headed home, to keep our local hospitality afloat.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Here the Fear
Great name for a rock band! But is Hear the Fear even better?
Quite impressed so many young people are coming forward - one of my friends is doing shuttle runs to a max-vaxx centre for people without a car (probably super spreading), and everyone is boasting about how long they queued on insta (3.5 hours at a mosque in Glasgow is the record).
Delighted that the queue is at the mosque. Hope it means that vax wary are getting vaxxed. Now what we need are big queues at Stocky’s local mosque to help the London figures. If I hadn’t been fully vaxxed, I would have queued for a jag at the Glasgow mosque. It’s a building I would love to visit.
I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
Nor has Keir consistently.
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Here the Fear
Great name for a rock band! But is Hear the Fear even better?
"The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK."
We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.
I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Fox Jr2 had a work do in Earls Court last night, and is having a party for his mates tonight.
Looks like you'll not be seeing him at Christmas then.
Quite impressed so many young people are coming forward - one of my friends is doing shuttle runs to a max-vaxx centre for people without a car (probably super spreading), and everyone is boasting about how long they queued on insta (3.5 hours at a mosque in Glasgow is the record).
I'd be surprised if it gets much higher before peaking tbh. Christmas init.
This sunday WILL be the peak for this round of jabs. Highest day for recording -> Christmas -> New Year -> Demand limitations.
I think that rate could be sustained for most of next week before we hit the demand wall which I think is about 43m so another ~17m to go. From now until Friday I think we can get through an absolute maximum of 10m, I don't think the capacity exists in the system to do more, not without additional centres being opened. That means 7m need to be done over the Xmas period, which seems extremely unlikely to me.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
Honestly mate, I think you need to take a step back and think about what you're saying.
We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.
I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.
We missed last year because of Covid.
Newcastle City Centre much better shopping experience than the Metro Centre
We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.
I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.
We missed last year because of Covid.
Was at Meadowhall this evening - not rammed but busy, a bit down from what would be normal at this time of year.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
Yet somehow South Africa, with its poverty, its high rate of HIV/AIDS, etc., is doing fine.
Look: I'm no crazy "let it rip" person. I've been much more OK with restrictions than some posters on here, and am happier than most to wear masks.
But the reality is that South Africa's "in hospital" growth has *dramatically* slowed, and cases are already falling in Guateng. The number on oxygen is also really low compared to Delta. And the University of Hong Kong's analysis is that Omicron is an upper respiratory tract infection that is much (as in an order of magnitude) less bad in the lungs.
I'm sure that Omicron will infect most of us. And it is sensible to have some modest restrictions, because changing the doubling rate from 2.5 to 5 days makes a massive difference.
But let's not overreact here. In Wuhan, in New York and in Milan there were people dying in the street. People couldn't sleep for the sound of ambulances. Bodies were piling up.
That has simply not happened in South Africa. It may still do so, of course. But the fact that the Health Minister there says that 91% of Omicron cases have already recovered suggests that it is no way more dangerous than previous variants - especially when faced with an extremely well vaxxed population.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
But we had neither of those tools available to us last Jan.
We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.
I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.
We missed last year because of Covid.
Newcastle City Centre much better shopping experience than the Metro Centre
I can believe that now. 30 years ago the Metro Centre was great but it has been declining for a long time. If we were to catch the train to the centre tomorrow where would you recommend?
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Fox Jr2 had a work do in Earls Court last night, and is having a party for his mates tonight.
Just been for a ride around the City of London. I’ve been working there since 1974 and have seen it at all hours of the day and all times of the year. I’ve never seen it this quiet not even on an early Sunday morning in winter. But 0900hrs on Thursday morning!!
Sharing some potentially significant findings relating to Omicron given the current situation. First of all huge thanks to the team working flat out- Bo Meng, @isabella_atmf and to our collaborators both in G2P, J2P along with @SystemsVirology . Findings as follows:
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
I'm sorry David but take a deep breath and calm down.
We're fine. The vaccines have been done, the boosters have been done. Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
We need to end this madness and get on with our lives. Anyone who doesn't survive after three jabs, has simply had their card marked, there's not much more to do about it. We can't keep destroying real life to prevent a handful of deaths.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Here the Fear
Great name for a rock band! But is Hear the Fear even better?
Tears for Fears.
Always thought that a trifle trite. Or was it other way around?
We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.
I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.
We missed last year because of Covid.
Newcastle City Centre much better shopping experience than the Metro Centre
I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
Nor has Keir consistently.
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
Nor has Keir consistently.
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
"since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂
You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
But we had neither of those tools available to us last Jan.
True although we did have the first round of vaccines. The difference is Omicron. What Whitty is forecasting is a huge spike in cases which will overwhelm our hospitals but, hopefully, pass through very quickly. Things may be a lot better by February but January is going to be very tough.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
I dunno, I tend to the gloomy/restrictive side but I don't think we've got enough evidence yet. They're giving it a "not proven", as you say up there not saying it's just as bad, only that they don't yet know.
Moreover, the triple-jabbed seem relatively safe (75% or so). I wouldn't mingle unnecessarily but I wouldn't despair either.
Neil Ferguson is trending on the twatter machine...Some serious piss take of his projections.
Why do the government continue to employ Imperial? Time after time their models are shown to be daft.
Nobody ever challenges their defective work.....
I think there is a wider problem, there isn't enough people who study these things and traditionally the data collection has been very poor / hard to come by / inconsistent.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
But we had neither of those tools available to us last Jan.
True although we did have the first round of vaccines. The difference is Omicron. What Whitty is forecasting is a huge spike in cases which will overwhelm our hospitals but, hopefully, pass through very quickly. Things may be a lot better by February but January is going to be very tough.
The first round of vaccines wasn't rolled out in full in January, it had barely been started. Especially since it takes 3 weeks for the first jab to take effect.
Let alone having people triple-jabbed which they already are now for the vulnerable.
Now is nothing like last January. They may be tough, but tough is reality, we need to face it and not shove our head back in the sand.
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
Nor has Keir consistently.
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
"since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂
You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.
The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.
Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
Yes. Which is what I tried to explain to @rcs1000 when the Dutch first went for a curfew 3/4 weeks ago. Once you start down the road of restrictions it is much harder to reverse, psychologically, than to impose even harder restrictions, and tighten the screw. All governments do this. And they take ages to finally yield and press the Freedom button (Ireland is one of the worst examples)
The pressure on politicians is always to "save lives" - which looks good in the immediate short term, hospitals don't seize up, corpses don't pile up - but the long term damage goes unquestioned.
There will be intense pressure on Boris and Co to lockdown Britain. Let us pray he has one bit of backbone left in him, and he says Fuck off
It might, actually, be a gracious way for him to bow out of politics. He would then be the man who saved us from lockdown, got us through January, and at that point he can resign with some dignity? Even as Der Keir Sturmer wanted to put us all in camps
Seems to be very little evidence now that Omicron is going to be better than Delta.
I hate to say I told you so...but I did say it was far too early to be saying it's all okay now
I have literally just linked to an academic work saying it is.....it doesn't appear to bugger your lungs anywhere near as badly as Delta and 3 doses looks good against it.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc
No, it means you have a 5-fold lower chance of developing severe disease than someone unvaccinated. Who in turn has something like a 10% chance of developing severe disease if they catch it.
So a pretty tiny chance on an individual basis. Before, it seems, taking account of T-cell immunity.
And before allowing for any intrinsic mildness in the variant, if that exists.
I don't think the government and media ever explain how the reduction in risk works.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
I dunno, I tend to the gloomy/restrictive side but I don't think we've got enough evidence yet. They're giving it a "not proven", as you say up there not saying it's just as bad, only that they don't yet know.
Moreover, the triple-jabbed seem relatively safe (75% or so). I wouldn't mingle unnecessarily but I wouldn't despair either.
Voice of reason. No wonder you're no longer an MP - far too sensible.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
Just to clear my name, I knew Slaithwaite was Slawit or Slowit. Unfortunately my phone didn't, and autocorrected 'Slawit' to 'Slaithwaite'. Grrr.
I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
Nor has Keir consistently.
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
"since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂
You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.
The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.
Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
Almost a month? Almost a month?
An entire month? Almost?
Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.
SAGE predicting 3000 hospital cases a day. Last January peaked at about 4000.
Evidence from South Africa is that fewer would probably need to be ICU as well.
History suggests their leaked forecasts are designed to scare and influence rather than be accurate. In this case even if accurate, a peak of 3k per day, reached much quicker and exited much quicker than last time given Omicron's rapid cycle speed - would be absolute fine. Not if you're one of them, but nowhere near a scenario justify ruining a 2nd xmas. It would barely be ahead of the usual NHS winter crisis we got every year back in the old world.
BREAKING: Turns out Rishi Sunak didn't bugger off to California for a holiday after all. Well, he did stay at his holiday home, but you'll be reassured to know that while he was there, he was negotiating the takeover of the NHS by the worst health service in the developed world x
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
Good.
Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.
Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
Nor has Keir consistently.
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
"since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂
You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.
The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.
Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
Almost a month? Almost a month?
An entire month? Almost?
Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
I dunno, I tend to the gloomy/restrictive side but I don't think we've got enough evidence yet. They're giving it a "not proven", as you say up there not saying it's just as bad, only that they don't yet know.
Moreover, the triple-jabbed seem relatively safe (75% or so). I wouldn't mingle unnecessarily but I wouldn't despair either.
I'm sorry Nick, it's not 75%, it's a 93-95% reduction in severe symptoms. I'll do the calculation as many times as necessary.
If Omicron attacks 1000 unvaccinated people it seems to infect all 1000, it the presents severe symptoms in around 70 and kills about 10. If Omicron attacks 1000 triple jabbed it will infect about 300, present severe symptoms in around 3 or 4 and kill around 0.5.
Those are the numbers of VE based on a study of actual Omicron infections in the UK. 26m people have had three doses and we're probably going to add another 10m to that cohort in the next 7 days. The worry, as my friend's model seems to have correctly predicted earlier this week, is two dose and single dose people with no prior infection, that's a huge number of people.
In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours: 1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look. 2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head. 3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Fox Jr2 had a work do in Earls Court last night, and is having a party for his mates tonight.
Just been for a ride around the City of London. I’ve been working there since 1974 and have seen it at all hours of the day and all times of the year. I’ve never seen it this quiet not even on an early Sunday morning in winter. But 0900hrs on Thursday morning!!
I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
Nor has Keir consistently.
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
"since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂
You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.
The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.
Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
Almost a month? Almost a month?
An entire month? Almost?
Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.
But you've nearly had a month now, that's cute.
Do you think Johnson is in a recoverable position?
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
It's no less severe if you compare two people with naive immune systems being infected with each variant. But we have loads of immunity against severe illness from the vaccines, and in many cases from prior infection, so the overall impact is going to be substantially less.
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
Whitty wasn't panicking at all, but the Dutch certainly need to panic. Their booster programme has barely started. Starting from here, which they shouldn't be, they absolutely should be locking down hard whilst they try to catch up on the boosters.
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
Good.
Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.
Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
How is "Lockdown... doing more damage than the virus now"?
A peak of 3000 hospitalisation a day, compared to 4000 last year, with a cycle time twice as quick like Omicron, gives total hospital numbers well below half the peak last year.
Comments
1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look.
2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head.
3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.
In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!
Maybe GM wanted to her advice before making a purchase, to ensure it really did bring out {fill in pronoun] best?
Evidence from South Africa is that fewer would probably need to be ICU as well.
Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
Comres March 2014
Lab 38%
Con 30%
Lib Dem 10%
Sound familiar?
SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1471945677412442114?s=21
It’s like we’ve all collectively decided to become hermits for the critical final week.
I am planning multiple meals out as soon as Boxing day is over and the relatives have headed home, to keep our local hospitality afloat.
Meanwhile some more Omicron hopium for you all: https://twitter.com/guptar_lab/status/1471941653376253955?s=21
Increasing scientific basis for the “mild” theory.
@TOPPING is right, by the way, a break does you a lot of good. Just two days away and I’m already feeling better.
Enjoy life. Have fun. Meet friends. Love. Live.
See you all in the New Year.
Great name for a rock band! But is Hear the Fear even better?
I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.
We missed last year because of Covid.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20
dancingsetting light to bikes in the streets ofRaithAmsterdam tonight....Its because the Dutch didn't let the virus spread in the summer.
Idiots. Whitty warned about that at the time. He was right then, he shouldn't lose his nerve now.
Was at Meadowhall this evening - not rammed but busy, a bit down from what would be normal at this time of year.
About 50% mask wearing.
Look: I'm no crazy "let it rip" person. I've been much more OK with restrictions than some posters on here, and am happier than most to wear masks.
But the reality is that South Africa's "in hospital" growth has *dramatically* slowed, and cases are already falling in Guateng. The number on oxygen is also really low compared to Delta. And the University of Hong Kong's analysis is that Omicron is an upper respiratory tract infection that is much (as in an order of magnitude) less bad in the lungs.
I'm sure that Omicron will infect most of us. And it is sensible to have some modest restrictions, because changing the doubling rate from 2.5 to 5 days makes a massive difference.
But let's not overreact here. In Wuhan, in New York and in Milan there were people dying in the street. People couldn't sleep for the sound of ambulances. Bodies were piling up.
That has simply not happened in South Africa. It may still do so, of course. But the fact that the Health Minister there says that 91% of Omicron cases have already recovered suggests that it is no way more dangerous than previous variants - especially when faced with an extremely well vaxxed population.
https://twitter.com/CRYPTOHOOP1/status/1471581674819538955?s=20
https://twitter.com/1873Rickster/status/1471435389000994820?s=20
Just been for a ride around the City of London. I’ve been working there since 1974 and have seen it at all hours of the day and all times of the year. I’ve never seen it this quiet not even on an early Sunday morning in winter. But 0900hrs on Thursday morning!!
https://twitter.com/fairfaxache/status/1471423207970418689?s=20
@truemagic68
@isabella_atmf
and to our collaborators both in G2P, J2P along with
@SystemsVirology
. Findings as follows:
https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1471941645797146628?s=20
Clif notes, Big O is good at getting past 2 doses, 3 doses seems to do a good job. Big O isn't as good at doing you lungs in as Delta
We're fine. The vaccines have been done, the boosters have been done. Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
We need to end this madness and get on with our lives. Anyone who doesn't survive after three jabs, has simply had their card marked, there's not much more to do about it. We can't keep destroying real life to prevent a handful of deaths.
You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
Moreover, the triple-jabbed seem relatively safe (75% or so). I wouldn't mingle unnecessarily but I wouldn't despair either.
https://twitter.com/Cassetteboy/status/1471752027311116290?s=20
Well... Wish i had a bigger betting balance
I think there is a wider problem, there isn't enough people who study these things and traditionally the data collection has been very poor / hard to come by / inconsistent.
So you end up with the 2-3 people who do.
Let alone having people triple-jabbed which they already are now for the vulnerable.
Now is nothing like last January. They may be tough, but tough is reality, we need to face it and not shove our head back in the sand.
These bastards need to be ridiculed.
The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.
Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
I hate to say I told you so...but I did say it was far too early to be saying it's all okay now
The pressure on politicians is always to "save lives" - which looks good in the immediate short term, hospitals don't seize up, corpses don't pile up - but the long term damage goes unquestioned.
There will be intense pressure on Boris and Co to lockdown Britain. Let us pray he has one bit of backbone left in him, and he says Fuck off
It might, actually, be a gracious way for him to bow out of politics. He would then be the man who saved us from lockdown, got us through January, and at that point he can resign with some dignity? Even as Der Keir Sturmer wanted to put us all in camps
An entire month? Almost?
Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.
But you've nearly had a month now, that's cute.
Johnson, it's time to say bye bye for us all
BREAKING: Turns out Rishi Sunak didn't bugger off to California for a holiday after all. Well, he did stay at his holiday home, but you'll be reassured to know that while he was there, he was negotiating the takeover of the NHS by the worst health service in the developed world x
Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.
Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
We have 45.6% triple jabbed at this point. The situations are completely different.
If Omicron attacks 1000 unvaccinated people it seems to infect all 1000, it the presents severe symptoms in around 70 and kills about 10.
If Omicron attacks 1000 triple jabbed it will infect about 300, present severe symptoms in around 3 or 4 and kill around 0.5.
Those are the numbers of VE based on a study of actual Omicron infections in the UK. 26m people have had three doses and we're probably going to add another 10m to that cohort in the next 7 days. The worry, as my friend's model seems to have correctly predicted earlier this week, is two dose and single dose people with no prior infection, that's a huge number of people.
Cases going through the roof and people are dying.
So much for "vaccines will get us out".
You're miserable and looking for reasons for failure because you think a failed country would be good for your politics. Its sad really.
We don't have a lockdown.
Even SAGE agree there is no problem here.