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It’s now odds-on that BJ will be replaced by the end of 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    This Simon Case fellow. Does he have a brother called Justin?
  • Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
  • Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours:
    1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look.
    2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head.
    3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.

    In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!

    It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in

    Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
    Here the Fear

    Great name for a rock band! But is Hear the Fear even better?
    Tears for Fears.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Well fancy that:

    "The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK."


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    As an aside, why was the chair of Women For Women International UK... a bloke?

    Maybe he identifies as a woman
    Well, according to the Guardian, Martin Thomas did send a picture of himself in a Victoria's Secret to a female employee.

    Maybe GM wanted to her advice before making a purchase, to ensure it really did bring out {fill in pronoun] best?
    Shopping in a Victoria Secret full stop should be a sacking offence.
    More likely a back, crack and sacking.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,230
    On that basis - vote Boris
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.

    I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.


    We missed last year because of Covid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,523
    edited December 2021

    This Simon Case fellow. Does he have a brother called Justin?

    He does have 2 sisters, Open and Shut...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TimS said:
    As i said, Omicron might well save the American South from being smashed again at winter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours:
    1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look.
    2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head.
    3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.

    In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!

    It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in

    Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
    Fox Jr2 had a work do in Earls Court last night, and is having a party for his mates tonight.
    Looks like you'll not be seeing him at Christmas then.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,676
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Competition Update:

    Highest Boosters to date: 861,306 (today)
    Nearest estimate: @carnyx (854,217)
    Next nearest: @Richard_Nabavi (896,322)

    Eliminated entries:
    @Endillion 525,600
    @MightyAlex 700,000
    @Cyclefree 723,527
    @Eabhal 825,000

    I'm still in the game. This is fun!
    I really thought it would be a flash in the pan.

    Quite impressed so many young people are coming forward - one of my friends is doing shuttle runs to a max-vaxx centre for people without a car (probably super spreading), and everyone is boasting about how long they queued on insta (3.5 hours at a mosque in Glasgow is the record).
    I'd be surprised if it gets much higher before peaking tbh. Christmas init.
    This sunday WILL be the peak for this round of jabs. Highest day for recording -> Christmas -> New Year -> Demand limitations.
    I think that rate could be sustained for most of next week before we hit the demand wall which I think is about 43m so another ~17m to go. From now until Friday I think we can get through an absolute maximum of 10m, I don't think the capacity exists in the system to do more, not without additional centres being opened. That means 7m need to be done over the Xmas period, which seems extremely unlikely to me.
  • FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20
  • Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    The Dutch decision to slam the restrictions back on in July is shown to be wrong.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
  • They'll be dancing setting light to bikes in the streets of Raith Amsterdam tonight....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    DavidL said:

    We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.

    I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.


    We missed last year because of Covid.

    Newcastle City Centre much better shopping experience than the Metro Centre
  • DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    No its not.

    Its because the Dutch didn't let the virus spread in the summer.

    Idiots. Whitty warned about that at the time. He was right then, he shouldn't lose his nerve now.
  • DavidL said:

    We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.

    I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.


    We missed last year because of Covid.


    Was at Meadowhall this evening - not rammed but busy, a bit down from what would be normal at this time of year.

    About 50% mask wearing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    Yet somehow South Africa, with its poverty, its high rate of HIV/AIDS, etc., is doing fine.

    Look: I'm no crazy "let it rip" person. I've been much more OK with restrictions than some posters on here, and am happier than most to wear masks.

    But the reality is that South Africa's "in hospital" growth has *dramatically* slowed, and cases are already falling in Guateng. The number on oxygen is also really low compared to Delta. And the University of Hong Kong's analysis is that Omicron is an upper respiratory tract infection that is much (as in an order of magnitude) less bad in the lungs.

    I'm sure that Omicron will infect most of us. And it is sensible to have some modest restrictions, because changing the doubling rate from 2.5 to 5 days makes a massive difference.

    But let's not overreact here. In Wuhan, in New York and in Milan there were people dying in the street. People couldn't sleep for the sound of ambulances. Bodies were piling up.

    That has simply not happened in South Africa. It may still do so, of course. But the fact that the Health Minister there says that 91% of Omicron cases have already recovered suggests that it is no way more dangerous than previous variants - especially when faced with an extremely well vaxxed population.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    But we had neither of those tools available to us last Jan.
  • Neil Ferguson is trending on the twatter machine...Some serious piss take of his projections.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    DavidL said:

    We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.

    I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.


    We missed last year because of Covid.

    Newcastle City Centre much better shopping experience than the Metro Centre
    I can believe that now. 30 years ago the Metro Centre was great but it has been declining for a long time. If we were to catch the train to the centre tomorrow where would you recommend?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    No its not.

    Its because the Dutch didn't let the virus spread in the summer.

    Idiots. Whitty warned about that at the time. He was right then, he shouldn't lose his nerve now.
    He was certainly right about encouraging spread over the summer. I fear he is also right to panic now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours:
    1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look.
    2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head.
    3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.

    In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!

    It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in

    Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
    Fox Jr2 had a work do in Earls Court last night, and is having a party for his mates tonight.
    Sure. But I am not exaggerating. London is empty

    https://twitter.com/CRYPTOHOOP1/status/1471581674819538955?s=20

    https://twitter.com/1873Rickster/status/1471435389000994820?s=20


    Just been for a ride around the City of London. I’ve been working there since 1974 and have seen it at all hours of the day and all times of the year. I’ve never seen it this quiet not even on an early Sunday morning in winter. But 0900hrs on Thursday morning!!

    https://twitter.com/fairfaxache/status/1471423207970418689?s=20

    @truemagic68
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    edited December 2021
    Sharing some potentially significant findings relating to Omicron given the current situation. First of all huge thanks to the team working flat out- Bo Meng,
    @isabella_atmf
    and to our collaborators both in G2P, J2P along with
    @SystemsVirology
    . Findings as follows:

    https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1471941645797146628?s=20

    Clif notes, Big O is good at getting past 2 doses, 3 doses seems to do a good job. Big O isn't as good at doing you lungs in as Delta
  • DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    I'm sorry David but take a deep breath and calm down.

    We're fine. The vaccines have been done, the boosters have been done. Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.

    We need to end this madness and get on with our lives. Anyone who doesn't survive after three jabs, has simply had their card marked, there's not much more to do about it. We can't keep destroying real life to prevent a handful of deaths.
  • Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours:
    1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look.
    2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head.
    3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.

    In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!

    It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in

    Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
    Here the Fear

    Great name for a rock band! But is Hear the Fear even better?
    Tears for Fears.
    Always thought that a trifle trite. Or was it other way around?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Foxy said:

    This Simon Case fellow. Does he have a brother called Justin?

    He does have 2 sisters, Open and Shut...
    No, but he has a Middle Eastern cousin Asad.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    DavidL said:

    We are doing our annual trip* to Newcastle/the Metro Centre this weekend. The Metro centre must have about a quarter of its retail space sitting empty including most of the old HoF and Debenhams stores. We went to Zizzi's tonight which was relatively busy but jeez, its less than 2 weeks to Christmas. No problem at all in making a booking at 7.00pm. Some of the restaurants round about were very quiet and the carpark for the Marriot is the emptiest I have ever seen it.

    I cannot believe that the centre is breaking even on current occupancy rates. It's really sad to see it like this. Retail and hospitality seem to be taking an absolute battering and the financial support of the first year of the pandemic is a distant memory. It's pretty grim to be honest.


    We missed last year because of Covid.

    Newcastle City Centre much better shopping experience than the Metro Centre
    Agreed. John Lewis and Fenwicks for a kick off.
  • Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,676
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
  • Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    But we had neither of those tools available to us last Jan.
    True although we did have the first round of vaccines. The difference is Omicron. What Whitty is forecasting is a huge spike in cases which will overwhelm our hospitals but, hopefully, pass through very quickly. Things may be a lot better by February but January is going to be very tough.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,518
    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    I dunno, I tend to the gloomy/restrictive side but I don't think we've got enough evidence yet. They're giving it a "not proven", as you say up there not saying it's just as bad, only that they don't yet know.

    Moreover, the triple-jabbed seem relatively safe (75% or so). I wouldn't mingle unnecessarily but I wouldn't despair either.
  • This is really good...other than the stupid and unnecessarily offensive chorus.

    https://twitter.com/Cassetteboy/status/1471752027311116290?s=20
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ruth Davidson is available to lay as next Con Leader at sub 1000 prices.

    Well... Wish i had a bigger betting balance
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,687

    Neil Ferguson is trending on the twatter machine...Some serious piss take of his projections.

    Why do the government continue to employ Imperial? Time after time their models are shown to be daft.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    edited December 2021
    Cookie said:

    Neil Ferguson is trending on the twatter machine...Some serious piss take of his projections.

    Why do the government continue to employ Imperial? Time after time their models are shown to be daft.
    Nobody ever challenges their defective work.....

    I think there is a wider problem, there isn't enough people who study these things and traditionally the data collection has been very poor / hard to come by / inconsistent.

    So you end up with the 2-3 people who do.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    But we had neither of those tools available to us last Jan.
    True although we did have the first round of vaccines. The difference is Omicron. What Whitty is forecasting is a huge spike in cases which will overwhelm our hospitals but, hopefully, pass through very quickly. Things may be a lot better by February but January is going to be very tough.
    The first round of vaccines wasn't rolled out in full in January, it had barely been started. Especially since it takes 3 weeks for the first jab to take effect.

    Let alone having people triple-jabbed which they already are now for the vulnerable.

    Now is nothing like last January. They may be tough, but tough is reality, we need to face it and not shove our head back in the sand.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Neil Ferguson is trending on the twatter machine...Some serious piss take of his projections.

    Good,

    These bastards need to be ridiculed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
  • Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.

    The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.

    Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
  • Seems to be very little evidence now that Omicron is going to be better than Delta.

    I hate to say I told you so...but I did say it was far too early to be saying it's all okay now
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    Yes. Which is what I tried to explain to @rcs1000 when the Dutch first went for a curfew 3/4 weeks ago. Once you start down the road of restrictions it is much harder to reverse, psychologically, than to impose even harder restrictions, and tighten the screw. All governments do this. And they take ages to finally yield and press the Freedom button (Ireland is one of the worst examples)

    The pressure on politicians is always to "save lives" - which looks good in the immediate short term, hospitals don't seize up, corpses don't pile up - but the long term damage goes unquestioned.

    There will be intense pressure on Boris and Co to lockdown Britain. Let us pray he has one bit of backbone left in him, and he says Fuck off

    It might, actually, be a gracious way for him to bow out of politics. He would then be the man who saved us from lockdown, got us through January, and at that point he can resign with some dignity? Even as Der Keir Sturmer wanted to put us all in camps
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    edited December 2021

    Seems to be very little evidence now that Omicron is going to be better than Delta.

    I hate to say I told you so...but I did say it was far too early to be saying it's all okay now

    I have literally just linked to an academic work saying it is.....it doesn't appear to bugger your lungs anywhere near as badly as Delta and 3 doses looks good against it.
  • TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59696499

    These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc

    No, it means you have a 5-fold lower chance of developing severe disease than someone unvaccinated. Who in turn has something like a 10% chance of developing severe disease if they catch it.

    So a pretty tiny chance on an individual basis. Before, it seems, taking account of T-cell immunity.

    And before allowing for any intrinsic mildness in the variant, if that exists.
    I don't think the government and media ever explain how the reduction in risk works.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,609

    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    I dunno, I tend to the gloomy/restrictive side but I don't think we've got enough evidence yet. They're giving it a "not proven", as you say up there not saying it's just as bad, only that they don't yet know.

    Moreover, the triple-jabbed seem relatively safe (75% or so). I wouldn't mingle unnecessarily but I wouldn't despair either.
    Voice of reason. No wonder you're no longer an MP - far too sensible.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,687
    Just noticed this reply to me last night:

    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    Just to clear my name, I knew Slaithwaite was Slawit or Slowit. Unfortunately my phone didn't, and autocorrected 'Slawit' to 'Slaithwaite'. Grrr.
  • Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.

    The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.

    Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
    Almost a month? Almost a month?

    An entire month? Almost?

    Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.

    But you've nearly had a month now, that's cute.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585

    SAGE predicting 3000 hospital cases a day. Last January peaked at about 4000.

    Evidence from South Africa is that fewer would probably need to be ICU as well.

    History suggests their leaked forecasts are designed to scare and influence rather than be accurate. In this case even if accurate, a peak of 3k per day, reached much quicker and exited much quicker than last time given Omicron's rapid cycle speed - would be absolute fine. Not if you're one of them, but nowhere near a scenario justify ruining a 2nd xmas. It would barely be ahead of the usual NHS winter crisis we got every year back in the old world.
  • https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471960959396757504

    Johnson, it's time to say bye bye for us all
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    @BBCLAURAK spoof account

    BREAKING: Turns out Rishi Sunak didn't bugger off to California for a holiday after all. Well, he did stay at his holiday home, but you'll be reassured to know that while he was there, he was negotiating the takeover of the NHS by the worst health service in the developed world x
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    Other experts are available...
  • DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
    Good.

    Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.

    Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
  • Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.

    The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.

    Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
    Almost a month? Almost a month?

    An entire month? Almost?

    Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.

    But you've nearly had a month now, that's cute.
    You're in denial, I see.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,676

    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    I dunno, I tend to the gloomy/restrictive side but I don't think we've got enough evidence yet. They're giving it a "not proven", as you say up there not saying it's just as bad, only that they don't yet know.

    Moreover, the triple-jabbed seem relatively safe (75% or so). I wouldn't mingle unnecessarily but I wouldn't despair either.
    I'm sorry Nick, it's not 75%, it's a 93-95% reduction in severe symptoms. I'll do the calculation as many times as necessary.

    If Omicron attacks 1000 unvaccinated people it seems to infect all 1000, it the presents severe symptoms in around 70 and kills about 10.
    If Omicron attacks 1000 triple jabbed it will infect about 300, present severe symptoms in around 3 or 4 and kill around 0.5.

    Those are the numbers of VE based on a study of actual Omicron infections in the UK. 26m people have had three doses and we're probably going to add another 10m to that cohort in the next 7 days. The worry, as my friend's model seems to have correctly predicted earlier this week, is two dose and single dose people with no prior infection, that's a huge number of people.
  • Alistair said:

    On the 11 th of Jan this year 4.1% of 12+ people had had a first dose.

    We have 45.6% triple jabbed at this point. The situations are completely different.

    They say every time it's different but it doesn't seem very different.

    Cases going through the roof and people are dying.

    So much for "vaccines will get us out".
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,609
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    In other news: I have been out THREE times in the past 24 hours:
    1) last night for the annual Christmas meal with two other sets of parents of middle daughter's peers - to the Portico Library in Manchester. An amazing venue - an old reading room for Victorian industrialists trying to social climb. I urge any North Western PBers to go and take a look.
    2) this morning, to Edale and Mam Tor. An absolutely beautiful morning, with an inversion over the Hope Valley. Then a pub lunch in the OldNags Head.
    3) this evening, to Lightopia in Heaton Park. Amazing and brilliant. Again, urge any North Western pbers, especially with families, to see it - though probably next year now.

    In all cases, what was notable was the feeling if normality. In the outside world, people are keen to keep on living their lives. No sign of people being nervous and fearful. This is not February 2020 all over again. A refreshing antidote to too much time on the internet!

    It really doesn't feel like that in London. Here, the Fear has set in

    Which makes sense as London is rampant with Omicron the Boulevardier
    Fox Jr2 had a work do in Earls Court last night, and is having a party for his mates tonight.
    Sure. But I am not exaggerating. London is empty

    https://twitter.com/CRYPTOHOOP1/status/1471581674819538955?s=20

    https://twitter.com/1873Rickster/status/1471435389000994820?s=20


    Just been for a ride around the City of London. I’ve been working there since 1974 and have seen it at all hours of the day and all times of the year. I’ve never seen it this quiet not even on an early Sunday morning in winter. But 0900hrs on Thursday morning!!

    https://twitter.com/fairfaxache/status/1471423207970418689?s=20

    @truemagic68
    Ok we get what you mean but "I am not exaggerating. London is empty" is a classic!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,523

    Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.

    The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.

    Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
    Almost a month? Almost a month?

    An entire month? Almost?

    Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.

    But you've nearly had a month now, that's cute.
    Do you think Johnson is in a recoverable position?
  • BigRich said:

    Neil Ferguson is trending on the twatter machine...Some serious piss take of his projections.

    Good,

    These bastards need to be ridiculed.
    The sense of deja vu about all this makes me feel sick. Here we go once again.
  • Alistair said:

    On the 11 th of Jan this year 4.1% of 12+ people had had a first dose.

    We have 45.6% triple jabbed at this point. The situations are completely different.

    They say every time it's different but it doesn't seem very different.

    Cases going through the roof and people are dying.

    So much for "vaccines will get us out".
    Vaccines have got us out.

    You're miserable and looking for reasons for failure because you think a failed country would be good for your politics. Its sad really.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,239
    DavidL said:

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
    It's no less severe if you compare two people with naive immune systems being infected with each variant. But we have loads of immunity against severe illness from the vaccines, and in many cases from prior infection, so the overall impact is going to be substantially less.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Alistair said:

    On the 11 th of Jan this year 4.1% of 12+ people had had a first dose.

    We have 45.6% triple jabbed at this point. The situations are completely different.

    They say every time it's different but it doesn't seem very different.

    Cases going through the roof and people are dying.

    So much for "vaccines will get us out".
    Right now, deaths are continuing to fall week-on-week
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    edited December 2021

    FT WEEKEND: Omicron no less severe, experts say

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471956854569947136?s=20

    Other experts are available...
    The FT report on "severity" was based upon 24 suspected Omicron hospitalisations.....
  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    Whitty wasn't panicking at all, but the Dutch certainly need to panic. Their booster programme has barely started. Starting from here, which they shouldn't be, they absolutely should be locking down hard whilst they try to catch up on the boosters.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,609

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
    Good.

    Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.

    Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
    How is "Lockdown... doing more damage than the virus now"?

    We don't have a lockdown.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    A peak of 3000 hospitalisation a day, compared to 4000 last year, with a cycle time twice as quick like Omicron, gives total hospital numbers well below half the peak last year.

    Even SAGE agree there is no problem here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.

    The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.

    Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
    Almost a month? Almost a month?

    An entire month? Almost?

    Awww bless. Just wait until you find out how long Prime Minister Ed Miliband's party was ahead for.

    But you've nearly had a month now, that's cute.
    Do you think Johnson is in a recoverable position?
    Obviously yes.

    I think he should go, but I thought he should go a couple of months ago before the polls turned. However he's been behind for about as long as Tony Blair was in the petrol protests in 2000.

    Its midterms, winter, people are worried about Covid. If come the Spring the vaccine rollout has worked, there's no winter lockdown as people are expecting, the NHS doesn't collapse and so on then its entirely possible that Boris will be back in the lead before long.

    Despite wanting him out, I fully expect Boris to be Tory leader and to win a majority at the next election. Whether I want him to or not.
  • Alistair said:

    On the 11 th of Jan this year 4.1% of 12+ people had had a first dose.

    We have 45.6% triple jabbed at this point. The situations are completely different.

    They say every time it's different but it doesn't seem very different.

    Cases going through the roof and people are dying.

    So much for "vaccines will get us out".
    Vaccines have got us out.

    You're miserable and looking for reasons for failure because you think a failed country would be good for your politics. Its sad really.
    Don't tell me how I feel, thank you.

    I would completely love to be wrong and I hope you are right about your predictions with regards to vaccines.

    As for politics, your man BoJo has fudged it all on his own
  • As usual the Daily Mail trolleys around over COVID....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471963695194550272?s=20
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,687
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    Yes. Which is what I tried to explain to @rcs1000 when the Dutch first went for a curfew 3/4 weeks ago. Once you start down the road of restrictions it is much harder to reverse, psychologically, than to impose even harder restrictions, and tighten the screw. All governments do this. And they take ages to finally yield and press the Freedom button (Ireland is one of the worst examples)

    The pressure on politicians is always to "save lives" - which looks good in the immediate short term, hospitals don't seize up, corpses don't pile up - but the long term damage goes unquestioned.

    There will be intense pressure on Boris and Co to lockdown Britain. Let us pray he has one bit of backbone left in him, and he says Fuck off

    It might, actually, be a gracious way for him to bow out of politics. He would then be the man who saved us from lockdown, got us through January, and at that point he can resign with some dignity? Even as Der Keir Sturmer wanted to put us all in camps
    Think I saw some poll recently that the mood has finally started to turn against further lockdowns?
  • DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
    Good.

    Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.

    Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
    How is "Lockdown... doing more damage than the virus now"?

    We don't have a lockdown.
    And we're going to be fine as a result. But we're not the only country in the world.

    The Dutch have had a lockdown all year long, they never left lockdown. As a result they've got a fraction of the immunity we have and are getting royally fucked because lockdown not only hurt the economy but stopped people from getting natural immunity throughout the year.

    Keeping lockdowns through the summer was a moronic thing almost every country apart from the UK and USA did. As a result, those nations are fucked now. Lockdown has made the health crisis worse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,676

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    Whitty wasn't panicking at all, but the Dutch certainly need to panic. Their booster programme has barely started. Starting from here, which they shouldn't be, they absolutely should be locking down hard whilst they try to catch up on the boosters.
    Yes, I don't understand why any European country isn't doing what Boris did at the start of this week and simply throwing the doors open. There's 7 proper days left in the year where any significant numbers could be done. All 7 will need to be 100% capacity everywhere in Europe to avert some of this disaster.

    I think my friend has earned himself a pretty good year end bonus btw because the Imperial vaccine efficacy data matches exactly to his model which he produced about 10 days ago.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    The clown reduced to getting leadership advice from IDS tonight.
  • GUARDIAN: Held for the time being! #embargocat in play!
  • https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1471965501584773120

    Congratulations.

    I remember when the vaccines were going to send cases to zero
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
    Good.

    Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.

    Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
    Lockdown can't be doing any damage at all now.
    Haven't you noticed we aren't in one?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    edited December 2021

    https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1471965501584773120

    Congratulations.

    I remember when the vaccines were going to send cases to zero

    FFS, you are being absolutely ridiculous. NOBODY EVER SAID THAT....NOBODY....LITERALLY NOBODY...Even when they were announced the efficacy was nowhere near 100% against infection.

    The claim was that it would drastically reduce death. Which it has. And as Dr Foxy (and the stats) tell us, large proportion of those in ICU / dying aren't vaccinated. Then you have to ask how many are 80+ with all sorts of other illnesses. You only have to look at the official charts from Witty in regards to vaccinated risk of death to see for most people its down to the levels of risk from everything else in life.

    You are sounding like the anti-vaxxer lot, totally ignoring what the science actually said.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.

    The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.

    Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
    Are you too young to remember mid term polling? I’m not saying the Torres are nailed on to recover, I’m hoping they are not. But we are a heck of a way out from the next election, likely to be on the new boundaries.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    Seems to be very little evidence now that Omicron is going to be better than Delta.

    I hate to say I told you so...but I did say it was far too early to be saying it's all okay now

    There has been loads of evidence, linked on pb. I think you are only seeing what you want to see.
  • https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1471965501584773120

    Congratulations.

    I remember when the vaccines were going to send cases to zero

    You do?

    I don't think you have been paying attention. Vaccines are about making you more likely to survive when you get infected, not preventing 100% of infections. 🤦‍♂️

    No Covid vaccine prevents all infections. Nobody claimed it does. It does a great job at preventing you from going to hospital or dying and that's all that matters.

    As far as cases are the more cases we can have without hospitals crashing, the merrier. Cases aren't a bad thing, when are you going to understand that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,523

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
    Good.

    Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.

    Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
    How is "Lockdown... doing more damage than the virus now"?

    We don't have a lockdown.
    Even measures like closing nightclubs and returning to Social Distancing are not lockdowns.

    A lockdown is a stay at home order with enforcement and non essential shops closed. That is not going to happen, though I suspect a lot will lock themselves down.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800
    The number of people on ventilators in London has gone from 199 to 208. So a small rise.

    Also some evidence that severe symptoms emerge earlier with omicron than with delta. Perversely that would be good news would it as it would suggest we are further into the sickness wave in London than we realised.
  • Lab - 38%
    con - 30%
    Lib dem - 10%
    Greens - 10%

    https://t.co/6jglyXgzhF

    Tories back to 1997.

    Back to 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824163403/https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/04/the-conservative-nightmare-we-could-be-seeing-a-voteless-recovery/

    Comres March 2014
    Lab 38%
    Con 30%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Sound familiar?

    SKSICIPMITSWAEICIPM
    I don't recall Ed M leading by a large margin on most capable PM and best PM and having ratings far ahead of Johnson's
    Nor has Keir consistently.

    I'm pretty certain that Ed did in the midterms, yes, but not 100% certain. I can't find the data for that. Opposition leading in midterms is not an original concept.
    Keir has constantly since Labour went significantly ahead. This is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    "since Labour went significant ahead" - do you mean a few days ago? 😂

    You're right this is not a repeat of the 2010-2015 Parliament. Labour are polling far worse than they were in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
    Labour has been pulling ahead for almost a month now.

    The Tories are literally polling at 1997 levels but continue to stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la" if you wish.

    Your chosen leader is now as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn
    Are you too young to remember mid term polling? I’m not saying the Torres are nailed on to recover, I’m hoping they are not. But we are a heck of a way out from the next election, likely to be on the new boundaries.
    Not at all - but Ed M never led on other measures despite being so far ahead. Starmer is.
  • Guardian has an embargo tonight.

    Interesting...
  • But what do the experts know?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585

    The number of people on ventilators in London has gone from 199 to 208. So a small rise.

    Also some evidence that severe symptoms emerge earlier with omicron than with delta. Perversely that would be good news would it as it would suggest we are further into the sickness wave in London than we realised.

    The hospital rise in London so far fits far more with the rise in Delta cases up to start of this week. We'll have to see if it starts to trend like the Omicron case line, but SAGE forecast of 3000 admissions would say they don't think it will.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,239

    Alistair said:

    On the 11 th of Jan this year 4.1% of 12+ people had had a first dose.

    We have 45.6% triple jabbed at this point. The situations are completely different.

    They say every time it's different but it doesn't seem very different.

    Cases going through the roof and people are dying.

    So much for "vaccines will get us out".
    The vaccines will get us out. They work.
  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL

    They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
    This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
    Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
    Whitty wasn't panicking at all, but the Dutch certainly need to panic. Their booster programme has barely started. Starting from here, which they shouldn't be, they absolutely should be locking down hard whilst they try to catch up on the boosters.
    I think they've done a lot of single dose J&J vaccines as well, which recent data is showing largely ineffective against omicron.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,609

    GUARDIAN: Held for the time being! #embargocat in play!

    I hope it's a goodun!
This discussion has been closed.