Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow. One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV. Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.
Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
I found it a bit weird, in the sense of its was a decent old style Top Gear, but that isn't what they have been doing....it was in some ways disappointing as the "specials" are supposed to be kinda well special....no super exotic location, with some epic road trip.
I think that is the problem with the Grand Tour, it doesn't really know what it is. Where as Clarkson's Farm was great, because it was a very clear what sort of show it was trying to be.
I see that Simon Case has had to recuse himself from the inquiry he was mean to lead. Oh dear, never mind.
It might be easier to ask which government department was NOT having a party.
Still, if Sue Gray falls foul of the same problem and they're looking for an independent investigator ....
As for Sunak saying that there is currently adequate support for hospitality, what planet is he on?
How on earth is retrospective recusal acceptable for such a senior figure. Should be resigning in disgrace if he accepted the lead of an investigation he knew he was a valid subject of interest in.
Could be interpreted as possible collusion to deflect, if not outright pervert, the course of justice, or at least accountability?
Hard to see him staying in his current job. Another one caught by Johnsons negative midas touch.
It's time to round up the anti vaxxers and put them in camps. Enough
They are the ones who will put us in Total Bastard Lockdown until June. Fuck them. Fuck their stupid little fucking conspiracy theories. Fuck it if they are green or ethnic or young or old or silly or whatever. Lock them up. Make them pay for what they are doing
I'm sort of surprised we haven't got to the stage of just openly throwing money at unvaccinated people to get jabbed, literally bribing them. Maybe it pays for itself in the long run if you keep your economy open more, I dunno.
Because that is an insane policy. You are incentivising people to be sefish stupid c*nts and not get the vax, in the expectation that HMG will bribe them with ££ in the end. After the rest of us have done our civic duty???? And my tax shilling pays for this?!! FUCK OFF
Make the anti vaxxers suffer, one way or another. Enuff
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
Whitty wasn't panicking at all, but the Dutch certainly need to panic. Their booster programme has barely started. Starting from here, which they shouldn't be, they absolutely should be locking down hard whilst they try to catch up on the boosters.
Yes, I don't understand why any European country isn't doing what Boris did at the start of this week and simply throwing the doors open. There's 7 proper days left in the year where any significant numbers could be done. All 7 will need to be 100% capacity everywhere in Europe to avert some of this disaster.
I think my friend has earned himself a pretty good year end bonus btw because the Imperial vaccine efficacy data matches exactly to his model which he produced about 10 days ago.
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
Good.
Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.
Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
How is "Lockdown... doing more damage than the virus now"?
We don't have a lockdown.
Even measures like closing nightclubs and returning to Social Distancing are not lockdowns.
A lockdown is a stay at home order with enforcement and non essential shops closed. That is not going to happen, though I suspect a lot will lock themselves down.
No. There are degrees of lockdown
Did we have a lockdown in the UK in Jan-March 2021? You bet we did. Who would deny it. All non essential shops shut, all hospitality, pretty much everything. Brutal. That was definitely a LOCKDOWN
And yet some had it even worse, eg with outside exercise literally forbidden without a permit - which was checked. France, Spain, Italy all - arguably - had even more severe lockdowns than us
So lockdown is a spectrum not a single state. Once we accept that we can properly analyse where we are.
Right now the UK is in a very mild lockdown, so mild it might not even be a lockdown at all, but it is tightening, and self-fulfilling when you look at central London tonight
Once you start formally shuttering pubs, cinemas and theatres at 8pm like Ireland today, then yes that is definitely a form of lockdown. And so on
We've never had a lockdown. The only people locked down were those who were shielding. Three months going no further than the front gate. That is lockdown.
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
Good.
Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.
Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
Lockdown can't be doing any damage at all now. Haven't you noticed we aren't in one?
Philip is on this occasion taking a global rather than purely national view. Good to see.
I was shouted down in March 2020 and at the end of last year.
I am sorry that I don't share the optimistic view of many here - but things don't look good.
Let's hope and pray I am wrong.
People are disagreeing with you. Not shouting you down
Engage and convince them you are right
I've literally been told to fuck off.
Charles your pathetic biases are showing again, conversing with you is a complete waste of time
Apologies for the course language. I’m aware of your mental health issues. In my defence your posting is repetitive and totally negative, missing the full picture. I don’t know why you are ignoring data on this very thread, but doing so is incredibly irritating.
I wonder how many other countries have turned how many LFT you can take in a day into a national past time?
My tonsils are raw.
My nose needs a break, I'm tracking the progress of the virus every morning with LFTs. The nasal swabs are horrible.
Do you mind if I ask why?
What are you tracking? I thought they just displayed positive or not positive (which can be a false negative), if you know you've tested positive then do you mind if I ask what you're tracking?
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
It's no less severe if you compare two people with naive immune systems being infected with each variant. But we have loads of immunity against severe illness from the vaccines, and in many cases from prior infection, so the overall impact is going to be substantially less.
That is one side of the equation and it is a positive one. The negative side is that we are going to get 6 months worth of Delta type infections in less than 6 weeks. And that is going to be a problem.
Well, then it depends on the details. If we get the infections at a rate that is four times as fast, then the impact is the same if the severity is four times less. I think the health service can survive us being a little way on the wrong side of that balance.
I really do think that we are going to be okay. The changes in restrictions that we have had to date have been astonishingly slight, given how rapidly Omicron spreads. This must be because there is confidence that the vaccine effectiveness against severe infection will hold.
It's time to round up the anti vaxxers and put them in camps. Enough
They are the ones who will put us in Total Bastard Lockdown until June. Fuck them. Fuck their stupid little fucking conspiracy theories. Fuck it if they are green or ethnic or young or old or silly or whatever. Lock them up. Make them pay for what they are doing
I'm sort of surprised we haven't got to the stage of just openly throwing money at unvaccinated people to get jabbed, literally bribing them. Maybe it pays for itself in the long run if you keep your economy open more, I dunno.
Because that is an insane policy. You are incentivising people to be sefish stupid c*nts and not get the vax, in the expectation that HMG will bribe them with ££ in the end. After the rest of us have done our civic duty???? And my tax shilling pays for this?!! FUCK OFF
Make the ant vaxxers suffer, one way or another. Enuff
If there is to be financial incentives it should be taxation of anti-vaxxers.
Starting with making them pay for any hospital costs.
Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow. One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV. Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.
What, your the putter-web talking on PB, but you didn't watch any tv / netflix / youtube?
Had a few music vids on YouTube. But that was for the tunes. Absolutely never felt the urge no. Had footy and occasionally news on the radio. That's it. Family are watching Terminator. Can't think of anything I'd less like to do. Has really made me realise I watch stuff cos other folk have it on. Will really try to be aware and not do this.
Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow. One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV. Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.
Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
Never once felt like it, no.
Fair play. Apparently BBC is now more repeats than new anyway...
I was shouted down in March 2020 and at the end of last year.
I am sorry that I don't share the optimistic view of many here - but things don't look good.
Let's hope and pray I am wrong.
People are disagreeing with you. Not shouting you down
Engage and convince them you are right
I've literally been told to fuck off.
Charles your pathetic biases are showing again, conversing with you is a complete waste of time
Apologies for the course language. I’m aware of your mental health issues. In my defence your posting is repetitive and totally negative, missing the full picture. I don’t know why you are ignoring data on this very thread, but doing so is incredibly irritating.
To be quite honest I've missed it, if you're happy to post the links again I'll have a read.
Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow. One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV. Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.
Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
I found it a bit weird, in the sense of its was a decent old style Top Gear, but that isn't what they have been doing....it was in some ways disappointing as the "specials" are supposed to be kinda well special....no super exotic location, with some epic road trip.
I think that is the problem with the Grand Tour, it doesn't really know what it is. Where as Clarkson's Farm was great, because it was a very clear what sort of show it was trying to be.
I thought the Scottish Grand Tour was rather good - funny and clever. And sometimes hilarious. It helped that they finally accepted that the whole thing is contrived, and staged, and then they just got on with the jokes and the insights. That got rid of the awkward *scripted* quality - by paradoxically admitting it is all scripted
Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow. One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV. Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.
Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
It was more a row about Jeremy Clarkson punching a colleague in the face, to be fair.
I know - comic underplaying of the situation from me. But even so - I doubt clarkson is the only talent to throw a tantrum.
I wonder how many other countries have turned how many LFT you can take in a day into a national past time?
My tonsils are raw.
My nose needs a break, I'm tracking the progress of the virus every morning with LFTs. The nasal swabs are horrible.
Do you mind if I ask why?
What are you tracking? I thought they just displayed positive or not positive (which can be a false negative), if you know you've tested positive then do you mind if I ask what you're tracking?
With LFTs you basically get a rough estimate of your viral load based on the test line opacity, mine was really opaque on Wednesday, today it's not as bad, tomorrow hopefully it will be almost gone. My wife's is really faint now.
I wonder how many other countries have turned how many LFT you can take in a day into a national past time?
My tonsils are raw.
My nose needs a break, I'm tracking the progress of the virus every morning with LFTs. The nasal swabs are horrible.
Still two stripes?
The test line is less opaque, I think by tomorrow it will be gone.
The night will come soon when you’ll think, “you know what I’m over this. Am gonna have a beer.” Ignore that inner voice. For at least another three days!
My own thought, echoing what many other PBers have noted, it that most folks in Europe, US and other western-oriented countries, are focused right now on Christmas or similar. That is, on being able to celebrate this in some way with family and (maybe) close friends. In ways not possible or advisable in 2020.
Obviously not everyone is of that mindset. For example, many younger people plus those skeptical about vax, COVID, Omicon or God-knows-what. But even many of these are moderating the behavior at least somewhat, even if just in reaction to the cautions of others (such as party & even cancellations).
After December 25, who knows? My guess is plenty will let their hair down on New Years, more than in 2021. But fewer than expected a few months ago. And 2022 is a Brave New World, certainly with respect to what Omicron and its successors may or may not bring.
It's time to round up the anti vaxxers and put them in camps. Enough
They are the ones who will put us in Total Bastard Lockdown until June. Fuck them. Fuck their stupid little fucking conspiracy theories. Fuck it if they are green or ethnic or young or old or silly or whatever. Lock them up. Make them pay for what they are doing
I'm sort of surprised we haven't got to the stage of just openly throwing money at unvaccinated people to get jabbed, literally bribing them. Maybe it pays for itself in the long run if you keep your economy open more, I dunno.
Because that is an insane policy. You are incentivising people to be sefish stupid c*nts and not get the vax, in the expectation that HMG will bribe them with ££ in the end. After the rest of us have done our civic duty???? And my tax shilling pays for this?!! FUCK OFF
Make the ant vaxxers suffer, one way or another. Enuff
It probably is insane, yes. Although not really sure it's much less insane than hoping covid passports will be the incentive to get these same folk to get jabbed.
It's probably also cheaper than rounding them up into a camp, which is not exactly a sane idea either.
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
Good.
Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.
Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
I hear that's Omicron's thinking too.
Why are you being silly suggesting that a virus is sentient?
No, I mean in the evolutionary sense of it pitching itself so as to be not quite bad enough to cause lockdowns. Someone was telling me this earlier today. Interesting idea.
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
It's no less severe if you compare two people with naive immune systems being infected with each variant. But we have loads of immunity against severe illness from the vaccines, and in many cases from prior infection, so the overall impact is going to be substantially less.
That is one side of the equation and it is a positive one. The negative side is that we are going to get 6 months worth of Delta type infections in less than 6 weeks. And that is going to be a problem.
Well, then it depends on the details. If we get the infections at a rate that is four times as fast, then the impact is the same if the severity is four times less. I think the health service can survive us being a little way on the wrong side of that balance.
I really do think that we are going to be okay. The changes in restrictions that we have had to date have been astonishingly slight, given how rapidly Omicron spreads. This must be because there is confidence that the vaccine effectiveness against severe infection will hold.
Or the restrictions are just not going to work so what's the point?
It's time to round up the anti vaxxers and put them in camps. Enough
They are the ones who will put us in Total Bastard Lockdown until June. Fuck them. Fuck their stupid little fucking conspiracy theories. Fuck it if they are green or ethnic or young or old or silly or whatever. Lock them up. Make them pay for what they are doing
Anecdote: brother-in-law works for UCLH (albeit in a non-clinical capacity.) Has described the hospital as being "overrun" with new Covid patients.
As with many, many other examples quoted in the newspapers and elsewhere through the Autumn and into Winter, they are "mostly unvaccinated."
Nothing will be done about this though. The general consensus from both the politicians and the medics seems to be that most refusers are not hardcore anti-vaxxer nuts but distrustful and/or scared people who need to be slowly, gently, patiently coaxed into compliance, or they'll simply dig their heels in more. The fact that we've already been trying to talk them down, unsuccessfully, for a year, and don't have another year, or two, or five, to turn the situation around is, of course, never mentioned. And there's no political will to get brutal with them. Apparently Draconian lockdowns for everyone = perfectly OK, let's have more please; universal vaccination mandates = unforgiveable violation of human rights.
Frankly, I can understand why you want them punished. To be honest, so do I. I was driven halfway round the bend by the last lockdown; husband is clinically extremely vulnerable. We both want Covid crushed as soon as possible and, if we had the authority to do it, would have no compunctions at all about making the lives of refusers unbearable. But Parliament won't do that, so the suffering will go on.
PS He agreed with my theorizing that if omicron is now an upper rather than lower respiratory tract infection (which, along with the higher virus reproduction rates in the bronchi leading to higher shedded viral loads, helps explain why it is way more transmissible), then that is consistent with expecting it to be a less severe illness than previous variants.
Meaning to ask you did you ever come across Julian Robinson? Had lunch with his sister last weekend
Julian Perry Robinson?
That’s him
Yep. Met him first in 1980. He and Matt Meselson were somewhat my mentors on CBW issues. Matt wrote a reference for my EB1 visa for the US. Julian offered, but the letters were better from US citizens.
PS Truly one of the sweetest humans ever to grace the planet. It was a huge loss to the arms control community when COVID took him last year. He was the first person I knew to die of this scourge.
Thanks. Harriett (his sister) told me that he turned down a Nobel Peace Price because it would have made him less effective at his job! That’s dedication to the cause!
It's time to round up the anti vaxxers and put them in camps. Enough
They are the ones who will put us in Total Bastard Lockdown until June. Fuck them. Fuck their stupid little fucking conspiracy theories. Fuck it if they are green or ethnic or young or old or silly or whatever. Lock them up. Make them pay for what they are doing
BREAKING: Outbreak Management Team recommends "strict lockdown" in the Netherlands to slow the spread of Omicron - RTL
They've been on curfew for weeks. Now it worsens
This is why Whitty was the closest to panic we have seen earlier this week. He saw what was coming and its bad.
Let him panic then, let the Dutch panic as well if they need to. The Tory party needs to hold Boris on the path of no more restrictions or dump him. Omicron is the tsunami in the distance and the Dutch are closing the window because they think it might save them. It won't.
I agree that lockdown measures seem unlikely to have a big impact on the spread of Omicron. It is just too infectious.
Good.
Let lockdown fail, that'd be the best way out of this nightmare.
Lockdown is doing more damage than the virus now. A variant that kills lockdowns for good would be a blessing.
I hear that's Omicron's thinking too.
Why are you being silly suggesting that a virus is sentient?
No, I mean in the evolutionary sense of it pitching itself so as to be not quite bad enough to cause lockdowns. Someone was telling me this earlier today. Interesting idea.
Not true.
Someone was telling you that humans shape evolution by controlling what is and is not allowed to evolve and thrive.
I was shouted down in March 2020 and at the end of last year.
I am sorry that I don't share the optimistic view of many here - but things don't look good.
Let's hope and pray I am wrong.
People are disagreeing with you. Not shouting you down
Engage and convince them you are right
I've literally been told to fuck off.
Charles your pathetic biases are showing again, conversing with you is a complete waste of time
Apologies for the course language. I’m aware of your mental health issues. In my defence your posting is repetitive and totally negative, missing the full picture. I don’t know why you are ignoring data on this very thread, but doing so is incredibly irritating.
To be quite honest I've missed it, if you're happy to post the links again I'll have a read.
Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow. One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV. Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.
Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
It was more a row about Jeremy Clarkson punching a colleague in the face, to be fair.
"Politicalbetting.com is like doing a jigsaw: a pointless way to pass the time until you die!"
I remember when the vaccines were going to send cases to zero
The US figure will be higher when all its data is in, not that it makes much difference.
The vaccines were sending the number of Alpha cases to zero, and three doses would have been enough to send the number of Delta cases to zero, but it's clear now that the evolution of the virus is too quick for a vaccine to eradicate it in this way. Maybe a nasal spray vaccine would do so, not sure. But that's not a disaster, because the vaccines still protect us from severe illness.
It's true that some people will die of Covid, just as some people have always died from colds, or flu, or pneumonia, but the numbers will not be so high that they put society at risk.
Thanks at least not for shouting me down, I appreciate that.
Thank you for not implying that I was lying about cases and vaccines.
I hope you are right in your predictions
It's hard to trust that things will mostly be okay this time, because we've been through this cycle so many times before that we've learnt that a leads to b, leads to c, leads to d. Johnson was late to protect people in spring 2020, late again in autumn 2020, and for a third time in winter 2020/21. It really does feel like it's the same thing again.
I completely understand that, because the subconscious part of my mind is feeling that, it's recognising the patterns that have been learnt, and it's triggering my fight or flight reactions in response to the perceived danger.
So my logical mind is able to say that we can trust the vaccines, and intellectually I know that this is what the evidence to date shows us to be true (with also some evidence that the vaccines have nudged the virus to be intrinsically less harmful, by being more an infection of the upper respiratory tract), and yet at the same time I do not really believe this, because learning lessons really quickly from previous experience is the sort of thing that keeps us safe.
Sorry Max PB, your mortality figures for the unvaccinated are completely wrong..1% really? 🥴🙄 John Ioannidis early work had the figure at 0.24 across all ages/health..the figure would be more like 0.16 for younger/healthier people..flu is 0.10 in comparison..A tough virus no doubt but nothing as lethal as you would have others believe..🧐
PS He agreed with my theorizing that if omicron is now an upper rather than lower respiratory tract infection (which, along with the higher virus reproduction rates in the bronchi leading to higher shedded viral loads, helps explain why it is way more transmissible), then that is consistent with expecting it to be a less severe illness than previous variants.
Meaning to ask you did you ever come across Julian Robinson? Had lunch with his sister last weekend
Julian Perry Robinson?
That’s him
Yep. Met him first in 1980. He and Matt Meselson were somewhat my mentors on CBW issues. Matt wrote a reference for my EB1 visa for the US. Julian offered, but the letters were better from US citizens.
PS Truly one of the sweetest humans ever to grace the planet. It was a huge loss to the arms control community when COVID took him last year. He was the first person I knew to die of this scourge.
Thanks. Harriett (his sister) told me that he turned down a Nobel Peace Price because it would have made him less effective at his job! That’s dedication to the cause!
I did not know that. But I did not see him much after 2010 when I pretty much stopped going to BWC meetings in Geneva and really started my own shift of emphasis away from arms control issues and into biorisk management in laboratory, healthcare and biological production settings.
If anyone of that age (from Western Europe, at least) tells you they are an expert in CBW arms control issues and says they never met Julian, one of the two statements is a lie.
Sorry Max PB, your mortality figures for the unvaccinated are completely wrong..1% really? 🥴🙄 John Ioannidis early work had the figure at 0.24 across all ages/health..the figure would be more like 0.16 for younger/healthier people..flu is 0.10 in comparison..A tough virus no doubt but nothing as lethal as you would have others believe..🧐
.25% of the US population has died from Covid. Do you think everyone in America has had it?
Sorry Max PB, your mortality figures for the unvaccinated are completely wrong..1% really? 🥴🙄 John Ioannidis early work had the figure at 0.24 across all ages/health..the figure would be more like 0.16 for younger/healthier people..flu is 0.10 in comparison..A tough virus no doubt but nothing as lethal as you would have others believe..🧐
We are so fucked. The death rate this January will make last January look like a stroll in the park. And there is really nothing we can do about it other than vax like crazy and try to bring forward the anti virials.
It's no less severe if you compare two people with naive immune systems being infected with each variant. But we have loads of immunity against severe illness from the vaccines, and in many cases from prior infection, so the overall impact is going to be substantially less.
That is one side of the equation and it is a positive one. The negative side is that we are going to get 6 months worth of Delta type infections in less than 6 weeks. And that is going to be a problem.
Well, then it depends on the details. If we get the infections at a rate that is four times as fast, then the impact is the same if the severity is four times less. I think the health service can survive us being a little way on the wrong side of that balance.
I really do think that we are going to be okay. The changes in restrictions that we have had to date have been astonishingly slight, given how rapidly Omicron spreads. This must be because there is confidence that the vaccine effectiveness against severe infection will hold.
Or the restrictions are just not going to work so what's the point?
I don't think that is right, though. People are treating restrictions as though they reduce R by a fixed amount - close shops, reduce R by 0.2, or close schools, reduce R by 0.5 - but I think it's more accurate to say that they would reduce R by a certain percentage, because they will be reducing the number of daily contacts by the same proportion.
If with a strict (by Western standards) lockdown you have an average reduction in contacts by 75%, I'd expect you would have a reduction in R of 75% too. Now if your initial R value is higher, your residual 25% of R will be higher, and perhaps with Omicron it would still be comfortably above 1, but there would still be a huge difference between an R of 3.5 and an R of 1.5, if the illness severity produced was sufficient to want to slow the virus down.
It's time to round up the anti vaxxers and put them in camps. Enough
They are the ones who will put us in Total Bastard Lockdown until June. Fuck them. Fuck their stupid little fucking conspiracy theories. Fuck it if they are green or ethnic or young or old or silly or whatever. Lock them up. Make them pay for what they are doing
Are you going to set free all the Muslims that you banged up after you last ‘turn’ or are you going to expand the camps?
No doubt Lord Geidt will now be summoned to give a clean bill of health to the illegal Xmas parties legal after-work gatherings.
The incompetence is beyond belief. Setting aside for a moment the absurdity of pretending such an investigation was going to be independent, how on earth could they not have spotted that Case himself was likely to be implicated in the stuff that he was investigating?
There's a fundamental lack of basic competence, let alone integrity, at the heart of government at the moment. If I were a Tory, I'd be very worried. Luckily, I'm not.
Thick as mince despite having aquired supposed fancy degree's.
I do hope you're not referring to me? (Anyway, I can spell acquired).
@Northern_Al I was certainly not referring to you , you may be a smart arse and can spell but you lack any perception to understand I was obviously not referring to you
Comments
I think that is the problem with the Grand Tour, it doesn't really know what it is. Where as Clarkson's Farm was great, because it was a very clear what sort of show it was trying to be.
Make the anti vaxxers suffer, one way or another. Enuff
Those numbers can likely be doubled to get those with acquired immunity.
As you say the situations are completely different.
What are you tracking? I thought they just displayed positive or not positive (which can be a false negative), if you know you've tested positive then do you mind if I ask what you're tracking?
I really do think that we are going to be okay. The changes in restrictions that we have had to date have been astonishingly slight, given how rapidly Omicron spreads. This must be because there is confidence that the vaccine effectiveness against severe infection will hold.
Starting with making them pay for any hospital costs.
Minimum charge £1000 per day.
Absolutely never felt the urge no.
Had footy and occasionally news on the radio. That's it.
Family are watching Terminator. Can't think of anything I'd less like to do.
Has really made me realise I watch stuff cos other folk have it on. Will really try to be aware and not do this.
Many thanks
Shame if they have gone backwards from that
Obviously not everyone is of that mindset. For example, many younger people plus those skeptical about vax, COVID, Omicon or God-knows-what. But even many of these are moderating the behavior at least somewhat, even if just in reaction to the cautions of others (such as party & even cancellations).
After December 25, who knows? My guess is plenty will let their hair down on New Years, more than in 2021. But fewer than expected a few months ago. And 2022 is a Brave New World, certainly with respect to what Omicron and its successors may or may not bring.
Home by Xmas 2022? Perhaps.
I don’t really care, but am curious as to why.
It's probably also cheaper than rounding them up into a camp, which is not exactly a sane idea either.
As with many, many other examples quoted in the newspapers and elsewhere through the Autumn and into Winter, they are "mostly unvaccinated."
Nothing will be done about this though. The general consensus from both the politicians and the medics seems to be that most refusers are not hardcore anti-vaxxer nuts but distrustful and/or scared people who need to be slowly, gently, patiently coaxed into compliance, or they'll simply dig their heels in more. The fact that we've already been trying to talk them down, unsuccessfully, for a year, and don't have another year, or two, or five, to turn the situation around is, of course, never mentioned. And there's no political will to get brutal with them. Apparently Draconian lockdowns for everyone = perfectly OK, let's have more please; universal vaccination mandates = unforgiveable violation of human rights.
Frankly, I can understand why you want them punished. To be honest, so do I. I was driven halfway round the bend by the last lockdown; husband is clinically extremely vulnerable. We both want Covid crushed as soon as possible and, if we had the authority to do it, would have no compunctions at all about making the lives of refusers unbearable. But Parliament won't do that, so the suffering will go on.
Someone was telling you that humans shape evolution by controlling what is and is not allowed to evolve and thrive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
(only kidding!
I completely understand that, because the subconscious part of my mind is feeling that, it's recognising the patterns that have been learnt, and it's triggering my fight or flight reactions in response to the perceived danger.
So my logical mind is able to say that we can trust the vaccines, and intellectually I know that this is what the evidence to date shows us to be true (with also some evidence that the vaccines have nudged the virus to be intrinsically less harmful, by being more an infection of the upper respiratory tract), and yet at the same time I do not really believe this, because learning lessons really quickly from previous experience is the sort of thing that keeps us safe.
If anyone of that age (from Western Europe, at least) tells you they are an expert in CBW arms control issues and says they never met Julian, one of the two statements is a lie.
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
If with a strict (by Western standards) lockdown you have an average reduction in contacts by 75%, I'd expect you would have a reduction in R of 75% too. Now if your initial R value is higher, your residual 25% of R will be higher, and perhaps with Omicron it would still be comfortably above 1, but there would still be a huge difference between an R of 3.5 and an R of 1.5, if the illness severity produced was sufficient to want to slow the virus down.
I was certainly not referring to you , you may be a smart arse and can spell but you lack any perception to understand I was obviously not referring to you