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It’s now odds-on that BJ will be replaced by the end of 2022 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageIt’s now odds-on that BJ will be replaced by the end of 2022 – politicalbetting.com

By any standards the North Shropshire outcome will go down as one of the most sensational by-elections in decades with the LDs jumping from third place to win this Leave-voting agricultural seat with a huge swing which outdoes even Christchurch of 1993.. The result when in it came wasn’t even close and saw a huge drop in the Tory vote with the LAB GE2019 vote more than halved.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    First.

    Stu was in his hammock,
    a thousand mile away.
    Captain, are you sleeping thar below?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Third rate like...take a guess
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    eek said:

    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
    Houchen needs to sharpen his knife and puncture BJ's balloon.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    Boris was .....

    I find it impossible to see how Boris wins the next election - he's damaged goods.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.

    A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.

    How?
    If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.

    Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.

    The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
    Johnson is incapable of personal development. He cannot improve.
    5th. Not totally sleeping :smile:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    FPT

    Jonathan said:

    two tribes, two cultures lining up in 2024

    Lib/Lab

    V.

    Tory/Nationalists

    Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.

    This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
    Doesn't this feel different to you?

    Paterson could just be a black Wednesday moment for the Tories, a pinch point where everything goes horribly wrong thereafter. I did think the inch-high, inch-perfect Sunak would return the Tory doubters to the fold for the next GE, but he too has just ****** on his chips.

    The BBC are under instruction to make light of Conservative travails but ITV (even Ant and Dec) Sky, Chanel 4, 5, and the print media are relentless. And, I don't do much social media, but every day I get a comedy WhatsApp about Partygate, or Boris Johnson or the Conservatives.
    No it doesn't feel different to me, in fact why I was so positive the Lib Dems would win and why I had money on it was that this was the perfect storm of a by-election.

    Not just a mid-term by election, but a midterm by-election when the government has just kicked sand in the face of its supporters (tax rises and restrictions coming back) and the by-election was triggered by scandal with Paterson.

    You couldn't get a much more ideal midterm by-election if you tried. That's why I knew the Lib Dems would win and justifiably so.

    But midterms aren't General Elections. The 2024 General Election isn't going to be centred upon Owen Paterson.
    As Chancellor Norman Lamont so adroitly observed, the next General Election isn't going to be centred around Black Wednesday.
    You really think that Owen Paterson and Black Wednesday are in the same league?

    To quote John McEnroe You can not be serious!
    You're right they're not equivalent - After Black Wednesday the Tories only lost their reputation for economic competence, whereas now they're losing their reputation for competence across the board.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.

    A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.

    How?
    If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.

    Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.

    The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
    Johnson is incapable of personal development. He cannot improve.
    He's getting worse. His judgement is shot, he's a rumpled mess, his personal life is getting busier, and the vultures are circling.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    I'd rather he stayed. He can only take the party in one direction. His personal credibility is shot and we can enjoy several months of his own back benchers taking gratuitous pot shots. What joy!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709
    Johnson just looks dreadful at the mo. Tired, as the Doctor would say.

    I'm sure there is potential for a recovery as others suggest, but it's no better than 1/3. He's never been a loser before. Christmas will make or break him.
  • Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    Boris was .....

    I find it impossible to see how Boris wins the next election - he's damaged goods.
    He is hard to see him bringing anything new, success for him relies on reviving the Brexit war and channelling an establishment sentiment through folksy charm. The fiddle whilst Rome burn parties seriously undermine the latter. He is demonstrably out of touch.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,485
    Well done to OGH for tipping this one. As per last night's thread, I lumped fifty on the Tories at 2.5, as never in my wildest dreams did I believe they could lose in such a donkey-in-a-blue-rosette territory. You may consider my hat well and truly eaten.

    Surely Boris has to go now?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
  • He should go, but I'll believe it when I see it.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    Probably time to let go of the perception that Johnson is still “an election winner”.

    He’s shot.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    How few weeks is it since we were reading all those posts along the lines of "what crisis? The Tories are still ahead of the opposition..."
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    There are no other viable parties running. All the opposition parties (save the Greens I think) currently represented in Parliament have stood aside. And if the Greens win in Southend then I’ll believe I’m actually living in the Matrix.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    Boris WAS the biggest election winner since Thatch. But he's become a liability and a loser I'm afraid.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    Go Green...get rid of Blue!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    Yes. 3 times election winner Maggie was also poll tax riot instigator Maggie by then. Simplistic analysis of past form only gets you so far. It might make sense to run two times winner Tiger Roll in the National next year, handicap permitting, but if (absit omen) he breaks a leg between now and then, his trainer will probably take that into account.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    This made me laugh:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-australia-59693271

    I'd be running away from the podium screeching like a loon...
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    Boris WAS the biggest election winner since Thatch. But he's become a liability and a loser I'm afraid.
    As Thatcher was by 1990.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    But simple answer. He only won by telling the biggest whoppers in political history with not a clue how to deliver.
  • Small mercy for the Tories: At least they kept the populist right in their box. If they knife Boris they can't be sure the replacement will be able to do the same, especially if they try to pivot back in a sanity-wards direction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    That is meaningless.

    What is the counterfactual were Thatcher to have contested another election ? Would you rather she had lost to Kinnock in 92 than Major to Blair in 97 ? Would your party have been more, or less likely to renew itself ?
    You simply can't know.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Very very sorry PB-ers
    maybe for sure I drunk too much sorry! and jumping up and down I threw up well over carpet and lots of things. My girlfriend came out didn’t say anything or cuddle me just shook head and went back. I dried it with hair dryer and then vacuumed it up. Sat on pot and went to bed.

    What a night! Winning my first political bet! The fact I feel so hungover and person I live with trying to work from home is complaining about bad smell means I did it this in the right way?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    ??
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    Turns out there isn't one - which shows how little attention I gave before posting the statement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    edited December 2021

    Very very sorry PB-ers
    maybe for sure I drunk too much sorry! and jumping up and down I threw up well over carpet and lots of things. My girlfriend came out didn’t say anything or cuddle me just shook head and went back. I dried it with hair dryer and then vacuumed it up. Sat on pot and went to bed.

    What a night! Winning my first political bet! The fact I feel so hungover and person I live with trying to work from home is complaining about bad smell means I did it this in the right way?

    Sounds as though it's not us you ought to be apologising to... :smile:

    (And a proportion of us are inveterate drunks anyway.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Boris in politics ends on a indoor bowling Green at four in morning, serenaded by a wailing boss Hogg? Or did I dream that. Won’t ever forget it ever You are very welcome PB-ERS
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Here we go. Boris now depends on Labour for the central policy of his administration - Covid measures. As @Dannythefink noted. Now, he needs to run it all past Labour knowing at some point they can declare him not to be going far enough and with regret withdraw support.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1471778143811870725
    https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1471776855183265793
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    This made me laugh:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-australia-59693271

    I'd be running away from the podium screeching like a loon...

    Not sure about a Health Minister called Yvette D'Ath.

    Wonder what the apostrophe is for?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,219
    Who are these 12,032 people who (despite all the evidence over the past few months to the contrary) still think Johnson's government is the right answer to our problems?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    Boris WAS the biggest election winner since Thatch. But he's become a liability and a loser I'm afraid.
    As Thatcher was by 1990.
    Nevertheless a poor non-showing by the Yorkshire Party? You have to be in it to win it....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    ??
    Well does the Lib Dem machine fire up (And there's no other machine like the Lib Dems for by-elections when they want it) for it or is it a more normal effort a la Bexley with the default being Labour.

    Amess' situation not dissimilar to Brokenshire so I presume Labour will tilt at it.
  • eek said:

    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
    Better than that. He said "HS2 should be scrapped" and praised his efforts in winning train-building contracts for HS2 for Hitachi in the same week.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    ??
    Well does the Lib Dem machine fire up (And there's no other machine like the Lib Dems for by-elections when they want it) for it or is it a more normal effort a la Bexley with the default being Labour.

    Amess' situation not dissimilar to Brokenshire so I presume Labour will tilt at it.
    Neither Labour nor the LDs are standing.
  • Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    This is exactly right. The by-election changes very little. It might be a slightly revealing symptom but the problems are already well-known to Tory MPs.

    Indeed, to some extent, the extent of the swing can be written off by Tories as it's not backed up in the polls, unlike the situation in autumn 1990. A 30%+ swing would usually be typical of a party in very deep trouble with public opinion, maybe a consistent 20% behind in the polls. While the LDs are no doubt delighted with the result, in some ways the greater their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Tories (both local and national in this case), the less representative the result - and the less the scale of it matters as it can't be repeated at a general election.

    Also worth noting is the Lib Dems retreat into the comfort zone will be absolutely baked in after this. They will be certain that their strategy of being a dump-bucket for protest votes is the right way to go, despite it having been so obviously calamitous through the 2010s.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    UKIP most likely. Labour and the LDs and RefUK are not putting up a candidate
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568
    edited December 2021

    Very very sorry PB-ers
    maybe for sure I drunk too much sorry! and jumping up and down I threw up well over carpet and lots of things. My girlfriend came out didn’t say anything or cuddle me just shook head and went back. I dried it with hair dryer and then vacuumed it up. Sat on pot and went to bed.

    What a night! Winning my first political bet! The fact I feel so hungover and person I live with trying to work from home is complaining about bad smell means I did it this in the right way?

    Congrats on winning your first political bet.

    Now with Christmas and New Year coming you need to learn how to handle or your drink and not throw up over everything or your girlfriend will be sending you back to your mother's lol!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    Congratulations to @Philip_Thompson for his betting last night as the odds flipped back and forth for no rational reason whatsoever. I loved one of Philip's later comments (and I think it had only just completely dawned on him the full grand extent of the nonsense TV and Twitter reporting before even a ballot box had been opened, even though he was successfully exploiting it). It went something along the lines of 'Nobody has a clue do they?'. Excellent job of betting against people reacting to rumours based upon no facts whatsoever at that point in time.

    I was surprised by people being taken in by Libby Weiner's comments on the 10 o'clock news (looking at you HYUFD), when not all the ballot boxes would have arrived let alone opened at that point.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    ??
    Well does the Lib Dem machine fire up (And there's no other machine like the Lib Dems for by-elections when they want it) for it or is it a more normal effort a la Bexley with the default being Labour.

    Amess' situation not dissimilar to Brokenshire so I presume Labour will tilt at it.
    Neither Labour nor the LDs are standing.
    Hah yes forgot about that.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Here we go. Boris now depends on Labour for the central policy of his administration - Covid measures. As @Dannythefink noted. Now, he needs to run it all past Labour knowing at some point they can declare him not to be going far enough and with regret withdraw support.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1471778143811870725
    https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1471776855183265793

    Starmer has given up quite a few possible shots to built a reputation for being responsible and trustworthy. It seems to be working, so I'd be surprised if he suddenly started being highly political and appearing to put the covid response at risk.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    ??
    Well does the Lib Dem machine fire up (And there's no other machine like the Lib Dems for by-elections when they want it) for it or is it a more normal effort a la Bexley with the default being Labour.

    Amess' situation not dissimilar to Brokenshire so I presume Labour will tilt at it.
    Tempted to offer you a bet on that.

    You think Lab will welch on their commitment not to field a candidate? I know that Starmer is a lawyer, but he's not *that* untrustworthy, surely? Or has this already been reversed - I'll be very surprised.

    https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/19652881.southend-west-by-election-labour-will-not-field-candidate/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    RefUK most likely. Labour and the LDs are not putting up a candidate
    You're still ramping RefUK despite their demonstrated irrelevance at two by-elections now.

    Quite obviously, the challenger will be the Green. A shame they have no clue how to fight elections seriously.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
    Better than that. He said "HS2 should be scrapped" and praised his efforts in winning train-building contracts for HS2 for Hitachi in the same week.
    Trains that need to be transported (by road) along what would be the HS2E route for fitting in Derby...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    kjh said:

    Congratulations to @Philip_Thompson for his betting last night as the odds flipped back and forth for no rational reason whatsoever. I loved one of Philip's later comments (and I think it had only just completely dawned on him the full grand extent of the nonsense TV and Twitter reporting before even a ballot box had been opened, even though he was successfully exploiting it). It went something along the lines of 'Nobody has a clue do they?'. Excellent job of betting against people reacting to rumours based upon no facts whatsoever at that point in time.

    I was surprised by people being taken in by Libby Weiner's comments on the 10 o'clock news (looking at you HYUFD), when not all the ballot boxes would have arrived let alone opened at that point.

    Yes, we should have learned by now how unreliable movements in the betting markets can be when there is nothing other than rumour and anecdote to go on. Trouble is, when money is at stake, any scrap of information tends to fill the desperate need to know.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    So thought it gone, maybe week go, but since Sunday it all Omicrone and no party gate. You all told me there’s been big swings in History but it depends on nature of a seat, this is too leave for Libdems, and you were right I am not arguing.

    I don’t want to be greedy but have their been voxpop of switchers to build mensi heatmap why. Is it things we didn’t realise? Immigration, stuff in channel, did sheer not up to the job of person Boris appointed Home Secretary cost him his job? Or did switchers say Make Brexit Better it’s time to deliver on tangibles not take piss in your speeches.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
    Better than that. He said "HS2 should be scrapped" and praised his efforts in winning train-building contracts for HS2 for Hitachi in the same week.
    Trains that need to be transported (by road) along what would be the HS2E route for fitting in Derby...
    Will it be by road? I don't know whether that works has a rail connection.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333

    Who are these 12,032 people who (despite all the evidence over the past few months to the contrary) still think Johnson's government is the right answer to our problems?

    One of them is presumably the candidate ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    Scott_xP said:

    Here we go. Boris now depends on Labour for the central policy of his administration - Covid measures. As @Dannythefink noted. Now, he needs to run it all past Labour knowing at some point they can declare him not to be going far enough and with regret withdraw support.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1471778143811870725
    https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1471776855183265793

    Starmer has given up quite a few possible shots to built a reputation for being responsible and trustworthy. It seems to be working, so I'd be surprised if he suddenly started being highly political and appearing to put the covid response at risk.
    Starmer's caution appeals to precisely the sort of older voter he needs too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    eek said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
    Better than that. He said "HS2 should be scrapped" and praised his efforts in winning train-building contracts for HS2 for Hitachi in the same week.
    Trains that need to be transported (by road) along what would be the HS2E route for fitting in Derby...
    Well, to be fair the trains are needed when the line opens, so it will be hard to transport them if the line isn't ready. And I think these trains are for the HS2 phase 1 route. There are many train movements along roads every day, anyway. Sometimes it's by far the most efficient and cheapest way of transporting one-off loads, especially ones that cannot travel fast.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    kjh said:

    Congratulations to @Philip_Thompson for his betting last night as the odds flipped back and forth for no rational reason whatsoever. I loved one of Philip's later comments (and I think it had only just completely dawned on him the full grand extent of the nonsense TV and Twitter reporting before even a ballot box had been opened, even though he was successfully exploiting it). It went something along the lines of 'Nobody has a clue do they?'. Excellent job of betting against people reacting to rumours based upon no facts whatsoever at that point in time.

    I was surprised by people being taken in by Libby Weiner's comments on the 10 o'clock news (looking at you HYUFD), when not all the ballot boxes would have arrived let alone opened at that point.

    Good for PT. I rarely bet and certainly not on by elections but obviously will latch onto any good news for my party
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Boris crawls into bed at 4 ish in morning.
    “How did it go Bozbaby?”
    “You know my guffing you been complaining about all evening, your are going to have to get used to it.”
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    RefUK most likely. Labour and the LDs are not putting up a candidate
    You're still ramping RefUK despite their demonstrated irrelevance at two by-elections now.

    Quite obviously, the challenger will be the Green. A shame they have no clue how to fight elections seriously.
    According to Wikipedia, neither the Greens nor RefUK will be contesting the election.

    The logic is presumably that a) neither has a chance of winning, and b) by not standing, they appear more like a "proper" political party than if they did.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    edited December 2021

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    This is exactly right. The by-election changes very little. It might be a slightly revealing symptom but the problems are already well-known to Tory MPs.

    Indeed, to some extent, the extent of the swing can be written off by Tories as it's not backed up in the polls, unlike the situation in autumn 1990. A 30%+ swing would usually be typical of a party in very deep trouble with public opinion, maybe a consistent 20% behind in the polls. While the LDs are no doubt delighted with the result, in some ways the greater their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Tories (both local and national in this case), the less representative the result - and the less the scale of it matters as it can't be repeated at a general election.

    Also worth noting is the Lib Dems retreat into the comfort zone will be absolutely baked in after this. They will be certain that their strategy of being a dump-bucket for protest votes is the right way to go, despite it having been so obviously calamitous through the 2010s.
    There is something very different between now and the 2010s. Labour and the Lib Dems are working together again and their voters are able to support each other to oust a Tory.

    This is a big deal.
  • Boris Johnson is the new Rory Burns.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Why do we even bother going to Australia for the ashes. Just give them their 5-0.
  • Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
    Better than that. He said "HS2 should be scrapped" and praised his efforts in winning train-building contracts for HS2 for Hitachi in the same week.
    Trains that need to be transported (by road) along what would be the HS2E route for fitting in Derby...
    Will it be by road? I don't know whether that works has a rail connection.
    Both Hitachi and Derby have rail connections. I haven't read into this, but *if* they are transporting bodyshells from Newton Aycliffe to Derby, then they'll be well out of gauge if not on temporary bogies. And if they're on temporary bogies, they'll only be able to go at really slow speeds. But I might be wrong ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    Suddenly the Southend byelection - one that should be the easiest of easy Tory wins because a lot more interesting.
    First question with that one is who is the main challenger.
    RefUK most likely. Labour and the LDs are not putting up a candidate
    You're still ramping RefUK despite their demonstrated irrelevance at two by-elections now.

    Quite obviously, the challenger will be the Green. A shame they have no clue how to fight elections seriously.
    The Green Party are also not putting up a candidate in the Southend by election out of respect for Sir David Amess as Labour, the LDs and RefUK are not either.
    https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2021/10/18/green-party-will-not-stand-in-southend-west-by-election/

    So the main party challenging the Tories will be UKIP, who are also anti vaxport and firmly anti lockdown as well as hardline on immigration.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Starry said:

    Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.

    There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.

    Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.

    Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?

    Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
    Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
    Ben Houchen is annoyed by the Rail cuts - he was trying last week to argue that HS2E wasn't essential until it was pointed out that if you want freight delivered by rail both NPR and HS2 are essential to provide the capacity.

    At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
    Better than that. He said "HS2 should be scrapped" and praised his efforts in winning train-building contracts for HS2 for Hitachi in the same week.
    Trains that need to be transported (by road) along what would be the HS2E route for fitting in Derby...
    Will it be by road? I don't know whether that works has a rail connection.
    Both Hitachi and Derby have rail connections. I haven't read into this, but *if* they are transporting bodyshells from Newton Aycliffe to Derby, then they'll be well out of gauge if not on temporary bogies. And if they're on temporary bogies, they'll only be able to go at really slow speeds. But I might be wrong ...
    It is body shells, bodies are being built in Aycliffe, fitting out done in Derby to keep both factories going during a lull in other work.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    How do you know Maggie would have won if they had kept her? Just think of the logic of your statement by an example: Usain Bolt should keep running the 100m until he is 90 because he is a proven winner.

    Everyone has their time and it isn't just about the leader but also the party. In fact I would suggest John Major was a winner as he won against the odds in 92. It was his party falling apart that finally lost the 97 election not Major. People had had enough.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
    So you actually think it isn't bad news that the Tories lost this?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    How do you know Maggie would have won if they had kept her? Just think of the logic of your statement by an example: Usain Bolt should keep running the 100m until he is 90 because he is a proven winner.

    Everyone has their time and it isn't just about the leader but also the party. In fact I would suggest John Major was a winner as he won against the odds in 92. It was his party falling apart that finally lost the 97 election not Major. People had had enough.
    The Tories look tired and in need of a period in opposition. They need to decide if they are conservative or populist. It's hard to be both.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    How do you know Maggie would have won if they had kept her? Just think of the logic of your statement by an example: Usain Bolt should keep running the 100m until he is 90 because he is a proven winner.

    Everyone has their time and it isn't just about the leader but also the party. In fact I would suggest John Major was a winner as he won against the odds in 92. It was his party falling apart that finally lost the 97 election not Major. People had had enough.
    Arguably had the Tories narrowly lost the 1992 general election under Thatcher it would have been better for them. They would have quickly rebuilt in opposition under Heseltine, Portillo or indeed Major with less bitterness from Thatcher and her supporters and been a real challenge to PM Kinnock in 1997. Blair would not have become Labour leader in 1994 and thousands of Tory councillors from 1993 to 1996 and over 150 Tory MPs in 1997 would not have lost their seats.

    Beating Kinnock in 1992 and paving the way for Blair was good for the country, it was not good for the Tory party longer term
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656

    James Melville
    @JamesMelville
    ·
    16h
    The way things are going, the only hospitality venue that is left open will be at 10 Downing Street.

    I don’t understand why Sunak has been so slow here..hmmm.

    Something churning beneath the surface?
  • kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    How do you know Maggie would have won if they had kept her? Just think of the logic of your statement by an example: Usain Bolt should keep running the 100m until he is 90 because he is a proven winner.

    Everyone has their time and it isn't just about the leader but also the party. In fact I would suggest John Major was a winner as he won against the odds in 92. It was his party falling apart that finally lost the 97 election not Major. People had had enough.
    Well said.

    HYUFD's biggest problem in his analysis, consistently, is that that he overeggs "this has happened in the past, so this must happen again".

    Unless you really live in a 1984 world its the future not the past that is unwritten. Just because something has happened before, doesn't mean it will continue into the future. Time moves on and people move on from the past.

    The Tories were right to dump Thatcher in 1990. She was the greatest ever postwar PM and nothing will ever take away from that, but she had lost it by then.

    Boris won a great election victory and nothing will ever take away from that either. He's probably second to Thatcher in my eyes as the most successful PM in my lifetime too. But he's lost it now. He's lost his nerve, he's lost his judgement. He's been through a period that I don't think anyone could have ever expected and dealt with more in 2.5 years than most PMs would deal with in 7, but its time for him to go.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    This is exactly right. The by-election changes very little. It might be a slightly revealing symptom but the problems are already well-known to Tory MPs.

    Indeed, to some extent, the extent of the swing can be written off by Tories as it's not backed up in the polls, unlike the situation in autumn 1990. A 30%+ swing would usually be typical of a party in very deep trouble with public opinion, maybe a consistent 20% behind in the polls. While the LDs are no doubt delighted with the result, in some ways the greater their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Tories (both local and national in this case), the less representative the result - and the less the scale of it matters as it can't be repeated at a general election.

    Also worth noting is the Lib Dems retreat into the comfort zone will be absolutely baked in after this. They will be certain that their strategy of being a dump-bucket for protest votes is the right way to go, despite it having been so obviously calamitous through the 2010s.
    The electoral and political calculus might have changed a bit, though.
    Labour are quite likely to need the LibDems in order to form an administration. And the asking price isn't going to be just a handful of cabinet seats.

    What would your strategy be ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    Jonathan said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    This is exactly right. The by-election changes very little. It might be a slightly revealing symptom but the problems are already well-known to Tory MPs.

    Indeed, to some extent, the extent of the swing can be written off by Tories as it's not backed up in the polls, unlike the situation in autumn 1990. A 30%+ swing would usually be typical of a party in very deep trouble with public opinion, maybe a consistent 20% behind in the polls. While the LDs are no doubt delighted with the result, in some ways the greater their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Tories (both local and national in this case), the less representative the result - and the less the scale of it matters as it can't be repeated at a general election.

    Also worth noting is the Lib Dems retreat into the comfort zone will be absolutely baked in after this. They will be certain that their strategy of being a dump-bucket for protest votes is the right way to go, despite it having been so obviously calamitous through the 2010s.
    There is something very different between now and the 2010s. Labour and the Lib Dems are working together again and their voters are able to support each other to oust a Tory.

    This is a big deal.
    Really? Here's Guildford:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guildford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

    Labour's vote fell to 7.7%, which is 6 points below what they got in 2001 when the Lib Dems won it.

    The whole working together thing is a myth. Short of a full-on electoral pact where they don't contest some seats, it's up to the voters to decide how much they care about kicking out the Tories.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
    So you actually think it isn't bad news that the Tories lost this?
    I actually don't think its news at all.

    Lib Dems win by-election in midterm is up there with "sun rose in the East" or "it snowed in winter" as news.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    GIN1138 said:

    Very very sorry PB-ers
    maybe for sure I drunk too much sorry! and jumping up and down I threw up well over carpet and lots of things. My girlfriend came out didn’t say anything or cuddle me just shook head and went back. I dried it with hair dryer and then vacuumed it up. Sat on pot and went to bed.

    What a night! Winning my first political bet! The fact I feel so hungover and person I live with trying to work from home is complaining about bad smell means I did it this in the right way?

    Congrats on winning your first political bet.

    Now with Christmas and New Year coming you need to learn how to handle or your drink and not throw up over everything or your girlfriend will be sending you back to your mother's lol!
    😱 you are proper right.

    Maybe I should have had white wine with pickled egg
  • The proportion of adults reporting they wore a face covering when outside their home in the past seven days increased to 94% (up from 84% in the previous period from 18 to 28 November 2021), with the greatest increase seen in England (94%, up from 83%) following the announcement making face coverings mandatory in shops, on public transport, and in other settings from 30 November 2021.

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1471778962066001924?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    James Melville
    @JamesMelville
    ·
    16h
    The way things are going, the only hospitality venue that is left open will be at 10 Downing Street.

    I don’t understand why Sunak has been so slow here..hmmm.

    Something churning beneath the surface?
    What Liam Byrne wrote in 2010 is currently true - "there is no money left"
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
    So you actually think it isn't bad news that the Tories lost this?
    I actually don't think its news at all.

    Lib Dems win by-election in midterm is up there with "sun rose in the East" or "it snowed in winter" as news.
    You, on November 10th:
    Win by one vote: good news.
    Lose by one vote: bad news.


    It's just so damn easy to catch you spouting your nonsense. You're so addicted to spin, you don't know which way you're pointing from one day to the next.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Massive over-reaction to a midterm by-election.

    Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.

    But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.

    This is exactly right. The by-election changes very little. It might be a slightly revealing symptom but the problems are already well-known to Tory MPs.

    Indeed, to some extent, the extent of the swing can be written off by Tories as it's not backed up in the polls, unlike the situation in autumn 1990. A 30%+ swing would usually be typical of a party in very deep trouble with public opinion, maybe a consistent 20% behind in the polls. While the LDs are no doubt delighted with the result, in some ways the greater their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Tories (both local and national in this case), the less representative the result - and the less the scale of it matters as it can't be repeated at a general election.

    Also worth noting is the Lib Dems retreat into the comfort zone will be absolutely baked in after this. They will be certain that their strategy of being a dump-bucket for protest votes is the right way to go, despite it having been so obviously calamitous through the 2010s.
    There is something very different between now and the 2010s. Labour and the Lib Dems are working together again and their voters are able to support each other to oust a Tory.

    This is a big deal.
    Really? Here's Guildford:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guildford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

    Labour's vote fell to 7.7%, which is 6 points below what they got in 2001 when the Lib Dems won it.

    The whole working together thing is a myth. Short of a full-on electoral pact where they don't contest some seats, it's up to the voters to decide how much they care about kicking out the Tories.
    Not sure I understand your argument, but that graph is hugely encouraging that the Tories will lose the seat next time and a few Lab->Lib switch could easily make the difference. Let's hope so.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem is when the Tories ousted 3 times election winner Maggie after Eastbourne they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. Boris is the Tories biggest general election winner since Thatcher.

    At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there

    How do you know Maggie would have won if they had kept her? Just think of the logic of your statement by an example: Usain Bolt should keep running the 100m until he is 90 because he is a proven winner.

    Everyone has their time and it isn't just about the leader but also the party. In fact I would suggest John Major was a winner as he won against the odds in 92. It was his party falling apart that finally lost the 97 election not Major. People had had enough.
    Arguably had the Tories narrowly lost the 1992 general election under Thatcher it would have been better for them. They would have quickly rebuilt in opposition under Heseltine, Thatcher or indeed Major with less bitterness from Thatcher and her supporters and been a real challenge to PM Kinnock in 1997. Blair would not have become Labour leader in 1994 and thousands of Tory councillors from 1993 to 1997 and over 150 Tory MPs in 1997 would not have lost their seats.

    Beating Kinnock in 1992 and paving the way for Blair was good for the country, it was not good for the Tory party longer term
    I agree with that 100% HYUFD. If Kinnock had won in 92 I would have bet on the Tories winning in 97 like you.

    It is a post I can't disagree with at all, but that wasn't my point. I was simply commenting on the 'not ditching a winner' comment. A winner eventually becomes a loser and often their replacement doesn't win not because they are not winners but because the overall brand is damaged, usually from too much time in power.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories look tired and in need of a period in opposition. They need to decide if they are conservative or populist. It's hard to be both.

    See Redwood this morning

    He still think his brand of Brexit populism is Conservative.

    Fukwit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Will Boris Johnson's hand-picked, surprise choice of conspicuously under-qualified cabinet secretary turn out to be not the man the prime minister thought he was?
    https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1471788747582853125
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1471764644805107714
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
    So you actually think it isn't bad news that the Tories lost this?
    I actually don't think its news at all.

    Lib Dems win by-election in midterm is up there with "sun rose in the East" or "it snowed in winter" as news.
    You, on November 10th:
    Win by one vote: good news.
    Lose by one vote: bad news.


    It's just so damn easy to catch you spouting your nonsense. You're so addicted to spin, you don't know which way you're pointing from one day to the next.
    LOL.

    Not spinning, that was over a month ago and I've been saying for the last month the Tories would lose this. That was simply saying how FPTP works but yes any realistic chance the Conservatives had of holding onto this seat was snuffed out within the past six weeks which is why I have been saying the Tories would lose for a month now.

    But keep trawling older posts if that makes you happy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    ROFLMAO

    One of the factors that will stop some Tory MPs emailing a letter of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady is that Brexit is not sorted out yet.

    Until the Northern Ireland Protocol is resolved, many Tories will not want to risk a leadership election.


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1471789492654718977
  • Hameed gone. What a joke.

    Are England even going to reach the follow-on target?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,485
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories look tired and in need of a period in opposition. They need to decide if they are conservative or populist. It's hard to be both.

    See Redwood this morning

    He still think his brand of Brexit populism is Conservative.

    Fukwit.
    I could joke and say, he still thinks it's popular.

    With inflation running hot, shortages in shops, and tax rises on the way, I think Brexit is going to turn out to be very unpopular. Not because Brexit was in fact the cause of these things (if Brexit is why prices are going up, how come inflation in the US is running at a similar amount and has equally as bad supply chain issues?) but because it can and will be blamed for these things.

    It was said on here a while ago that if the economy goes bad, not many people will remember voting for Brexit. I do wonder if North Shropshire is the first sign of that.

    A brexit-y seat going to the Lib Dems is definitely eyebrow-raising.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Lib Dem winner Helen Morgan is about to burst Boris Johnson’s Bubble in Oswestry https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1471789552331333635/photo/1
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    Excellent result last night.

    3 year loan on an irrelevant seat to the lib dems in return for extra pressure on the clown.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    You fucking idiot Hameed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    edited December 2021

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
    So you actually think it isn't bad news that the Tories lost this?
    I actually don't think its news at all.

    Lib Dems win by-election in midterm is up there with "sun rose in the East" or "it snowed in winter" as news.
    You, on November 10th:
    Win by one vote: good news.
    Lose by one vote: bad news.


    It's just so damn easy to catch you spouting your nonsense. You're so addicted to spin, you don't know which way you're pointing from one day to the next.
    LOL.

    Not spinning, that was over a month ago and I've been saying for the last month the Tories would lose this. That was simply saying how FPTP works but yes any realistic chance the Conservatives had of holding onto this seat was snuffed out within the past six weeks which is why I have been saying the Tories would lose for a month now.

    But keep trawling older posts if that makes you happy.
    So when, to no one's surprise, the Tories are turfed out at the next election, that won't be bad news - or even news at all - either ?
  • Michael Neser must think test cricket is easy. Smacks 35 off 24 balls and takes a wicket with his second ball.
  • Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
    So you actually think it isn't bad news that the Tories lost this?
    I actually don't think its news at all.

    Lib Dems win by-election in midterm is up there with "sun rose in the East" or "it snowed in winter" as news.
    You, on November 10th:
    Win by one vote: good news.
    Lose by one vote: bad news.


    It's just so damn easy to catch you spouting your nonsense. You're so addicted to spin, you don't know which way you're pointing from one day to the next.
    LOL.

    Not spinning, that was over a month ago and I've been saying for the last month the Tories would lose this. That was simply saying how FPTP works but yes any realistic chance the Conservatives had of holding onto this seat was snuffed out within the past six weeks which is why I have been saying the Tories would lose for a month now.

    But keep trawling older posts if that makes you happy.
    So when, to no one's surprise, the Tories are turfed out at the next election, that won't be bad news - or even news at all - either ?
    No, General Elections are real elections that matter.

    By-elections only matter if Parliament is tight in seats so the majority is at risk like 92-97 or 74-79
  • It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.

    A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.

    How?
    If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.

    Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.

    The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
    Johnson is incapable of personal development. He cannot improve.
    Johnson doesn't need to change. He can continue as an erratic, but charming, frontman, provided he has someone to do the real work in the background. Unlike most leaders I don't get the impression that Johnson particularly cares about being told what to do, as long as it ends up being popular and he can claim the credit for it.

    Or else the Tory party could depose Johnson.

    Both options would be an improvement on the status quo.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,706
    "They're making a list,
    They're checking it twice,
    Gonna count letters and be precise,
    The 1922 Committee is coming to town."
  • Cruel but fair.


  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    "No no, the Conservatives just suffered a 34% swing against them, but this is in no way bad news"

    Brilliant.

    Reading too much into a midterm by-election is a bit like reading too much into what Ant and Dec say: Its a joke.

    What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
    So you actually think it isn't bad news that the Tories lost this?
    I actually don't think its news at all.

    Lib Dems win by-election in midterm is up there with "sun rose in the East" or "it snowed in winter" as news.
    You, on November 10th:
    Win by one vote: good news.
    Lose by one vote: bad news.


    It's just so damn easy to catch you spouting your nonsense. You're so addicted to spin, you don't know which way you're pointing from one day to the next.
    LOL.

    Not spinning, that was over a month ago and I've been saying for the last month the Tories would lose this. That was simply saying how FPTP works but yes any realistic chance the Conservatives had of holding onto this seat was snuffed out within the past six weeks which is why I have been saying the Tories would lose for a month now.

    But keep trawling older posts if that makes you happy.
    No, you were not explaining how FPTP works, you were explaining that the only thing that mattered in terms of interpreting the results of by-elections was the result. The conversation was completely clear:
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3641631#Comment_3641631

    "If the Conservatives won [by] 40pp that's better news than if they won by 1pp. Yes, of course it makes no difference to the result of this constituency, but by-elections do offer (imperfect) signposts to the wider political fortunes of parties. Which is why I think everyone will agree that maintaining the current percentages would be an unambiguous success.

    At what point do we slip from "still good news" to "about expected" and then into "disappointing" and finally into "disaster"?"

    (me)

    Win by one vote: good news.
    Lose by one vote: bad news.

    (you)

    Today:
    "it's not news at all"

    PS you went trawling into the 2008 London mayoral election predictions recently to make a point, so cut me a bit of slack for going back to last month.
This discussion has been closed.