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It’s now odds-on that BJ will be replaced by the end of 2022 – politicalbetting.com
It’s now odds-on that BJ will be replaced by the end of 2022 – politicalbetting.com
By any standards the North Shropshire outcome will go down as one of the most sensational by-elections in decades with the LDs jumping from third place to win this Leave-voting agricultural seat with a huge swing which outdoes even Christchurch of 1993.. The result when in it came wasn’t even close and saw a huge drop in the Tory vote with the LAB GE2019 vote more than halved.
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Stu was in his hammock,
a thousand mile away.
Captain, are you sleeping thar below?
At which point he's decided to be quiet because it's an easy attack line - without HS2 and NPR we aren't going to hit our Carbon targets.
At most if they removed Boris and replaced him with say Sunak they might be able to scrape one more win, just but removing election winners normally does not work longer term. See also how Labour has lost 4 consecutive general elections since Blair was pushed out earlier than he wanted by Brownites in 2007. Brown got a short bounce but it was all downhill from there
I find it impossible to see how Boris wins the next election - he's damaged goods.
I'm sure there is potential for a recovery as others suggest, but it's no better than 1/3. He's never been a loser before. Christmas will make or break him.
Boris should go, I want him to go and if I were a backbench Tory MP my letter would already be in.
But this by-election isn't why he'll go, if he does.
Surely Boris has to go now?
He’s shot.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-australia-59693271
I'd be running away from the podium screeching like a loon...
What is the counterfactual were Thatcher to have contested another election ? Would you rather she had lost to Kinnock in 92 than Major to Blair in 97 ? Would your party have been more, or less likely to renew itself ?
You simply can't know.
maybe for sure I drunk too much sorry! and jumping up and down I threw up well over carpet and lots of things. My girlfriend came out didn’t say anything or cuddle me just shook head and went back. I dried it with hair dryer and then vacuumed it up. Sat on pot and went to bed.
What a night! Winning my first political bet! The fact I feel so hungover and person I live with trying to work from home is complaining about bad smell means I did it this in the right way?
(And a proportion of us are inveterate drunks anyway.)
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1471778143811870725
https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1471776855183265793
Wonder what the apostrophe is for?
Amess' situation not dissimilar to Brokenshire so I presume Labour will tilt at it.
Indeed, to some extent, the extent of the swing can be written off by Tories as it's not backed up in the polls, unlike the situation in autumn 1990. A 30%+ swing would usually be typical of a party in very deep trouble with public opinion, maybe a consistent 20% behind in the polls. While the LDs are no doubt delighted with the result, in some ways the greater their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Tories (both local and national in this case), the less representative the result - and the less the scale of it matters as it can't be repeated at a general election.
Also worth noting is the Lib Dems retreat into the comfort zone will be absolutely baked in after this. They will be certain that their strategy of being a dump-bucket for protest votes is the right way to go, despite it having been so obviously calamitous through the 2010s.
Now with Christmas and New Year coming you need to learn how to handle or your drink and not throw up over everything or your girlfriend will be sending you back to your mother's lol!
I was surprised by people being taken in by Libby Weiner's comments on the 10 o'clock news (looking at you HYUFD), when not all the ballot boxes would have arrived let alone opened at that point.
You think Lab will welch on their commitment not to field a candidate? I know that Starmer is a lawyer, but he's not *that* untrustworthy, surely? Or has this already been reversed - I'll be very surprised.
https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/19652881.southend-west-by-election-labour-will-not-field-candidate/
Quite obviously, the challenger will be the Green. A shame they have no clue how to fight elections seriously.
I don’t want to be greedy but have their been voxpop of switchers to build mensi heatmap why. Is it things we didn’t realise? Immigration, stuff in channel, did sheer not up to the job of person Boris appointed Home Secretary cost him his job? Or did switchers say Make Brexit Better it’s time to deliver on tangibles not take piss in your speeches.
“How did it go Bozbaby?”
“You know my guffing you been complaining about all evening, your are going to have to get used to it.”
The logic is presumably that a) neither has a chance of winning, and b) by not standing, they appear more like a "proper" political party than if they did.
This is a big deal.
https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1471773957858680832
What's actually bad news is that Burns is out for 4.
https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2021/10/18/green-party-will-not-stand-in-southend-west-by-election/
So the main party challenging the Tories will be UKIP, who are also anti vaxport and firmly anti lockdown as well as hardline on immigration.
Everyone has their time and it isn't just about the leader but also the party. In fact I would suggest John Major was a winner as he won against the odds in 92. It was his party falling apart that finally lost the 97 election not Major. People had had enough.
@JamesMelville
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16h
The way things are going, the only hospitality venue that is left open will be at 10 Downing Street.
Beating Kinnock in 1992 and paving the way for Blair was good for the country, it was not good for the Tory party longer term
Something churning beneath the surface?
HYUFD's biggest problem in his analysis, consistently, is that that he overeggs "this has happened in the past, so this must happen again".
Unless you really live in a 1984 world its the future not the past that is unwritten. Just because something has happened before, doesn't mean it will continue into the future. Time moves on and people move on from the past.
The Tories were right to dump Thatcher in 1990. She was the greatest ever postwar PM and nothing will ever take away from that, but she had lost it by then.
Boris won a great election victory and nothing will ever take away from that either. He's probably second to Thatcher in my eyes as the most successful PM in my lifetime too. But he's lost it now. He's lost his nerve, he's lost his judgement. He's been through a period that I don't think anyone could have ever expected and dealt with more in 2.5 years than most PMs would deal with in 7, but its time for him to go.
Labour are quite likely to need the LibDems in order to form an administration. And the asking price isn't going to be just a handful of cabinet seats.
What would your strategy be ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guildford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
Labour's vote fell to 7.7%, which is 6 points below what they got in 2001 when the Lib Dems won it.
The whole working together thing is a myth. Short of a full-on electoral pact where they don't contest some seats, it's up to the voters to decide how much they care about kicking out the Tories.
Lib Dems win by-election in midterm is up there with "sun rose in the East" or "it snowed in winter" as news.
Maybe I should have had white wine with pickled egg
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1471778962066001924?s=20
It is a post I can't disagree with at all, but that wasn't my point. I was simply commenting on the 'not ditching a winner' comment. A winner eventually becomes a loser and often their replacement doesn't win not because they are not winners but because the overall brand is damaged, usually from too much time in power.
He still think his brand of Brexit populism is Conservative.
Fukwit.
https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1471788747582853125
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1471764644805107714
Not spinning, that was over a month ago and I've been saying for the last month the Tories would lose this. That was simply saying how FPTP works but yes any realistic chance the Conservatives had of holding onto this seat was snuffed out within the past six weeks which is why I have been saying the Tories would lose for a month now.
But keep trawling older posts if that makes you happy.
One of the factors that will stop some Tory MPs emailing a letter of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady is that Brexit is not sorted out yet.
Until the Northern Ireland Protocol is resolved, many Tories will not want to risk a leadership election.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1471789492654718977
Are England even going to reach the follow-on target?
With inflation running hot, shortages in shops, and tax rises on the way, I think Brexit is going to turn out to be very unpopular. Not because Brexit was in fact the cause of these things (if Brexit is why prices are going up, how come inflation in the US is running at a similar amount and has equally as bad supply chain issues?) but because it can and will be blamed for these things.
It was said on here a while ago that if the economy goes bad, not many people will remember voting for Brexit. I do wonder if North Shropshire is the first sign of that.
A brexit-y seat going to the Lib Dems is definitely eyebrow-raising.
3 year loan on an irrelevant seat to the lib dems in return for extra pressure on the clown.
By-elections only matter if Parliament is tight in seats so the majority is at risk like 92-97 or 74-79
Or else the Tory party could depose Johnson.
Both options would be an improvement on the status quo.
They're checking it twice,
Gonna count letters and be precise,
The 1922 Committee is coming to town."
The people who did that in the past were Cummings and Gove. Neither of them are going to do it a second time.
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1471790890972815363?s=20
Its amusing to see so many people crying crocodile tears over people getting pay rises. The attitude stinks of "why should my barista get a pay rise if it means I'm going to have to pay a few pence more on my Grande, Iced, Sugar-Free, Vanilla Latte With Soy Milk"