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It’s now odds-on that BJ will be replaced by the end of 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
    90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
  • MattW said:

    No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...

    The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....

    Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.

    The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill


    https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1471830082511585284?s=20

    Do we know what happened to the other issue, about the ferries?
    Turned out alright for someone:

    The man brought in to turn around the fortunes of the nationalised shipyard building delayed CalMac ferries is leaving his post.

    Tim Hair has earned almost £1.3m for 454 days’ work since being appointed to lead Ferguson Marine by the Scottish Government in 2019.


    https://news.stv.tv/scotland/ferguson-marine-turnaround-boss-leaves-before-delayed-ferries-finished

    But there's no more money for hospitality.....
    Nice work if you can get it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    Just in case anyone drove home, we really need to know how many cases of wine they got through?
    I've been seeking out English wine in the last couple of months. Even the reds are now competitive.
    Orange doing well in a few places too.
    A bit tangy and no reliable finish.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Re: boosters

    I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.

    I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.

    I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?

    Thanks!

    It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
    Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy

    What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
  • Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    The fucking fucker's fucking fucked.

    Or

    Fuck! The fucking fucker's fucking fucked. Fuck!
  • Carnyx said:

    No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...

    The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....

    Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.

    The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill


    https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1471830082511585284?s=20

    It's spending 100m to support business.
    She was complaining today that that wasn't enough and it was Westminster's fault. Mind you, there's money for foreign "embassies".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    I just wish there was something using a more commonplace word. But we're always hampered having to use the plural form to get the s-less verb, or vice versa.
    Perfectly grammatical account of a grammar examination:

    Farooq, where Leon had had "had", had had "had had." "Had had" had had the examiner's approval.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    pigeon said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?

    Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.

    Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?

    Denmark, I think.
    I think the same stories are being run about them in some places. :smile:

    Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
    Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
    Pretty much. The number of people round the world doing country comparisons based on cases and who haven't realised that there is a testing rate......
    Just to partly answer the earlier question for Germany, you can look (for example) at the weekly report here:

    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-12-16.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

    At the bottom of page 33 there is a table which shows out of a total of 4038 random positive samples that were sequenced 4015 were Delta and 23 were Omicron (there will also be quite a few other confirmed omicron cases that were sampled but not part of this random check, for example my wife's hospital does a PCR test on everyone who comes in, and every positive test is then sequenced - but these won't appear in the data. So far they have had one omicron case confirmed, and the hospital is in an Omicron "hotspot" with several confirmed cases in the area). That was calendar week 48: 29th November to 5th December.

    So the week before last was still overwhelmingly Delta. This makes sense as the incidence rate has also been falling slightly over the last 2 weeks - which would probably not be happening if Omicron was already dominant.

    There's probably some more up to date data somewhere.
    Germany is about 2 weeks behind the UK? Rough guess?

    But it is coming to you, especially as you have a land border with Denmark

    I wonder if it is already showing in the Dutch stats, where cases were obviously receding, until the last few days. Now they tick up, despite a curfew
    Yes I'm assuming maybe 2 weeks behind if we're lucky. Germany is probably less than that behind in terms of booster shots, and that is going quite fast.

    The problem is the millions of older people who are still unvaccinated - and even if they could be persuaded it's obviously too late to get them triple-jabbed in time.

    The other day the NRW health minister said people could get their booster jabs just 4 weeks after the second dose, but they have since rowed back on that, although it is unclear how long people have to wait now. The national advice is 5 months last time I looked, but it seems possible to get it quite a bit earlier if you insist...
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    Just in case anyone drove home, we really need to know how many cases of wine they got through?
    I've been seeking out English wine in the last couple of months. Even the reds are now competitive.
    Orange doing well in a few places too.
    A bit tangy and no reliable finish.
    Watch out on the pricing too, promise one thing and then end up paying instalments forever.
  • MaxPB said:

    Re: boosters

    I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.

    I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.

    I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?

    Thanks!

    It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
    Thanks, next week is the earliest I can get one unless I stand and queue. I don't mind waiting as I'm already isolating prior to going to my parents' for the holidays so won't be going anywhere at all (except to get my booster). I also had Delta in the summer shortly after my second dose which gives me a bit more immunity I'd say.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
    90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
    Do you have any idea of the vax efficacy in preventing "moderate" illness? ie something like a mild flu which puts you in bed for a week, but where you don't ever need hospital?

    This could be the crucial metric in the next few weeks, and will decide whether the NHS - and the wider economy - seizes up entirely. Look at that news from the London Fire Brigade. Nearly a third of fire engines out of action due to staff shortages. Already

    Somewhat ominous
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    The fucking fucker's fucking fucked.

    Or

    Fuck! The fucking fucker's fucking fucked. Fuck!
    Or: The fucking fucker's fucking fucked the fucking fucker's fucking fucker.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    OK, read it.

    So with Omicron Vs Delta 60 days after booster:
    90 -> 61% efficacy against mild
    -> 4x as many people will get it

    98.7% -> 92.8% efficacy against severe disease
    -> 5.5x as many people will end up in hospital

    So, if everyone were 60 day boosted and case rates increased 10x with Omicron, hospitalisation rates would be expected to increase about 13.5x (although that is walking in through the door not occupying a bed).

    That's situation in a static boosted population.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Re: boosters

    I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.

    I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.

    I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?

    Thanks!

    It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
    Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy

    What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
    According to him - tiredness, sneezing, coughing, runny nose and general lack of concentration

    According to my sister - man flu so he can stay upstairs and isolate with his PS5 and leave her to look after the kids because she hasn't got symptoms!
  • MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:

    Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:

    94.5% 30 days after booster
    92.8% 60 days after booster
    90.7% 90 days after booster

    They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited December 2021
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
    Would it? Can fish be an adjective?

    But you reminded me:
    There once was a fisher named Fisher
    Who fished for fish in a fissure
    The fish with a grin
    Pulled the fisherman in
    Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
    I like that. My favorite of these, though, is:

    1 1 was a racehorse
    2 2 was one too
    1 1 won one race
    2 2 won one too

    or, spelled differently

    11 was a racehorse
    22 was 12
    1111 race
    22112
  • Let me try to describe the queue for the eurostar:

    I got to the side entrance on Pancras Rd. You walk down to Euston Road. Wow that’s a long queue!

    Oh wait, that’s not the end. It goes along Euston Rd to the corner by the British Library & wraps back up Midland Road. Madness.



    https://twitter.com/public_culture_/status/1471891923812208651
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
    90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
    Do you have any idea of the vax efficacy in preventing "moderate" illness? ie something like a mild flu which puts you in bed for a week, but where you don't ever need hospital?

    This could be the crucial metric in the next few weeks, and will decide whether the NHS - and the wider economy - seizes up entirely. Look at that news from the London Fire Brigade. Nearly a third of fire engines out of action due to staff shortages. Already

    Somewhat ominous
    Do they make London firemen do flow tests a couple of times a week even if they feel fine? Or is that people who actually can’t get out of bed?
  • MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:

    Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:

    94.5% 30 days after booster
    92.8% 60 days after booster
    90.7% 90 days after booster

    They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
    The ideal outcome seems to be we all get boosted and we all get infected not long after in order to top up with natural immunity.

    No point not getting infected and having immunity wane only to get infected a few months down the line.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    pigeon said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?

    Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.

    Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?

    Denmark, I think.
    I think the same stories are being run about them in some places. :smile:

    Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
    Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
    Pretty much. The number of people round the world doing country comparisons based on cases and who haven't realised that there is a testing rate......
    Just to partly answer the earlier question for Germany, you can look (for example) at the weekly report here:

    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-12-16.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

    At the bottom of page 33 there is a table which shows out of a total of 4038 random positive samples that were sequenced 4015 were Delta and 23 were Omicron (there will also be quite a few other confirmed omicron cases that were sampled but not part of this random check, for example my wife's hospital does a PCR test on everyone who comes in, and every positive test is then sequenced - but these won't appear in the data. So far they have had one omicron case confirmed, and the hospital is in an Omicron "hotspot" with several confirmed cases in the area). That was calendar week 48: 29th November to 5th December.

    So the week before last was still overwhelmingly Delta. This makes sense as the incidence rate has also been falling slightly over the last 2 weeks - which would probably not be happening if Omicron was already dominant.

    There's probably some more up to date data somewhere.
    Germany is about 2 weeks behind the UK? Rough guess?

    But it is coming to you, especially as you have a land border with Denmark

    I wonder if it is already showing in the Dutch stats, where cases were obviously receding, until the last few days. Now they tick up, despite a curfew
    Yes I'm assuming maybe 2 weeks behind if we're lucky. Germany is probably less than that behind in terms of booster shots, and that is going quite fast.

    The problem is the millions of older people who are still unvaccinated - and even if they could be persuaded it's obviously too late to get them triple-jabbed in time.

    The other day the NRW health minister said people could get their booster jabs just 4 weeks after the second dose, but they have since rowed back on that, although it is unclear how long people have to wait now. The national advice is 5 months last time I looked, but it seems possible to get it quite a bit earlier if you insist...
    January is going to be scary right across Europe. That's baked in now. On the upside, we should all be through the worst - in our part of the world - by February (God willing, touch wood, etc etc etc)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...

    The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....

    Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.

    The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill


    https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1471830082511585284?s=20

    It's spending 100m to support business.
    She was complaining today that that wasn't enough and it was Westminster's fault. Mind you, there's money for foreign "embassies".
    Last time round it was a UK matter. And certainly UKG are doing nothing at all to support this time round.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:

    Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:

    94.5% 30 days after booster
    92.8% 60 days after booster
    90.7% 90 days after booster

    They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
    Confounding factor given Omicron transmissibility is plenty will get a natural booster, avoiding severe disease, in that 90 day window.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Re: boosters

    I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.

    I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.

    I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?

    Thanks!

    It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
    As the Irish Doctor's Association wisely observed early in the vaccine roll out when people were waiting for Pfizer
    The best vaccine you can have is the one you can have NOW.
  • South Africa COVID update: Daily cases in Gauteng province drop for 3rd day in a row

    - New cases: 20,713
    - Average: 23,626 (+243)
    - Positivity rate: 30.4% (-0.5)
    - In hospital: 7,932 (+318)
    - In ICU: 528 (+19)
    - New deaths: 35
    - Average: 31 (+2)
  • Seems like we're in a bad position on COVID now :(
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10321139/Is-UK-heading-New-Year-lockdown-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-7-000-Omicron-deaths-DAY.html

    Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:

    Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:

    94.5% 30 days after booster
    92.8% 60 days after booster
    90.7% 90 days after booster

    They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
    The ideal outcome seems to be we all get boosted and we all get infected not long after in order to top up with natural immunity.

    No point not getting infected and having immunity wane only to get infected a few months down the line.
    So what you’re saying is Valentine’s Day orgies all round? Or just the PB meet up in Feb will do?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    edited December 2021
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
    Would it? Can fish be an adjective?

    But you reminded me:
    There once was a fisher named Fisher
    Who fished for fish in a fissure
    The fish with a grin
    Pulled the fisherman in
    Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
    Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.

    Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021
    Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Re: boosters

    I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.

    I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.

    I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?

    Thanks!

    It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
    Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy

    What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
    According to him - tiredness, sneezing, coughing, runny nose and general lack of concentration

    According to my sister - man flu so he can stay upstairs and isolate with his PS5 and leave her to look after the kids because she hasn't got symptoms!
    That doesn't sound too bad

    I was much worse the week before last (tho I tested negative). Could barely stay awake for 3 days, quasi-delirious, loss of sense of smell, tottering about if I did get up. I even stopped drinking
  • Seems like we're in a bad position on COVID now :(

    Why?

    We've got everyone vulnerable who wants to get boosted, boosted already.

    We've got increasing millions of non-vulnerable people boosted too.

    Just what more do you want?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
    90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
    Do you have any idea of the vax efficacy in preventing "moderate" illness? ie something like a mild flu which puts you in bed for a week, but where you don't ever need hospital?

    This could be the crucial metric in the next few weeks, and will decide whether the NHS - and the wider economy - seizes up entirely. Look at that news from the London Fire Brigade. Nearly a third of fire engines out of action due to staff shortages. Already

    Somewhat ominous
    Yeah that's the 61-68% for boosted people. Remember these are percentage reductions in cases rather than risk reduction figures.

    The issue is the isolation rules, at some point we're going to have to make the call and say "fuck it, infected people with no symptoms can continue as before and get rid of isolation for triple jabbed contacts entirely.

    What's really difficult to project with Omicron is how quickly it's going to get to all of us, this really could be over in a few weeks.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    “ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
  • Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    “ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
    IIRC Martin Thomas gave Boris Johnson an expensive vintage watch.
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Re: boosters

    I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.

    I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.

    I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?

    Thanks!

    It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
    Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy

    What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
    According to him - tiredness, sneezing, coughing, runny nose and general lack of concentration

    According to my sister - man flu so he can stay upstairs and isolate with his PS5 and leave her to look after the kids because she hasn't got symptoms!
    Hopefully everybody is feeling better in time for the holidays - I remember from my brush with Delta in the summer although I was over the worst of it in a couple of days, I still spent a couple of weeks feeling not quite right (like 95% instead of 100%) which wasn't great!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Maffew said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10321139/Is-UK-heading-New-Year-lockdown-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-7-000-Omicron-deaths-DAY.html

    Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.

    I don’t think I’ll be offering.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    TimS said:

    Maffew said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10321139/Is-UK-heading-New-Year-lockdown-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-7-000-Omicron-deaths-DAY.html

    Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.

    I don’t think I’ll be offering.
    I''d be surprised if we hit that hospitalisation rate, let alone deaths.
  • Maffew said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10321139/Is-UK-heading-New-Year-lockdown-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-7-000-Omicron-deaths-DAY.html

    Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.

    Back to the BS models....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
    Would it? Can fish be an adjective?

    But you reminded me:
    There once was a fisher named Fisher
    Who fished for fish in a fissure
    The fish with a grin
    Pulled the fisherman in
    Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
    Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.

    Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
    Here we go: Fish Creek, also known as Fish, or Fish Station, GA

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_Creek,_Georgia
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:

    Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:

    94.5% 30 days after booster
    92.8% 60 days after booster
    90.7% 90 days after booster

    They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
    Everyone over 50 will undoubtedly be asked to get 4th doses around Easter. It seems as though the vaccines, as they are currently made (specifically targeting the spike), don't generate a very high t-cell immune response. Hopefully the gen 2 vaccines will address this as well as future variants.
  • moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron.
    1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
    2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
    (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD

    93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
    I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:

    Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:

    94.5% 30 days after booster
    92.8% 60 days after booster
    90.7% 90 days after booster

    They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
    The ideal outcome seems to be we all get boosted and we all get infected not long after in order to top up with natural immunity.

    No point not getting infected and having immunity wane only to get infected a few months down the line.
    So what you’re saying is Valentine’s Day orgies all round? Or just the PB meet up in Feb will do?
    New Year's parties seem like a fantastic idea. Time to rip off the bandage and burn all masks. ;Everyone will be boosted by then, even the non-vulnerable, so time to call this crap over.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
    Would it? Can fish be an adjective?

    But you reminded me:
    There once was a fisher named Fisher
    Who fished for fish in a fissure
    The fish with a grin
    Pulled the fisherman in
    Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
    Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.

    Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
    Fish! (I order you to use a rod to catch aquatic animals)
    Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others)
    Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others)
    Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)

    But I can't work out how to do 5 fish.
    Any evolutionary biologist would tell you. Though this cheats a bit by using 'fish' in both cladistic and traditional classificatory senses. The key point is that fish are either fish fish (as they primitively are) or non-fish fish (evolved to tetrapods including thee and me).

    Fish fish fish Fish fish. (plesiomorphic vertebrates from Fish catch others from Fish)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    edited December 2021

    Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    “ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
    IIRC Martin Thomas gave Boris Johnson an expensive vintage watch.
    That's charity, that is: giving to a down on the heels journalist who is struggling with child support payments.
  • @MaxPB the symptoms sound exactly like mine.

    Feeling slightly under the weather, a bit blocked up, coughing and sneezing. Very similar to how I felt after my first jab, to be honest.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    moonshine said:

    The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
    Well we know that not to be the case now with three dose immunity providing between a 93% and 95% reduction in severe symptoms.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    It's political correctness gone mad.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
    Well we know that not to be the case now with three dose immunity providing between a 93% and 95% reduction in severe symptoms.
    They're gonna lock us down, tho

    FUCK
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    rcs1000 said:

    Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    “ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
    IIRC Martin Thomas gave Boris Johnson an expensive vintage watch.
    That's charity, that is: giving to a down on the heels journalist who is struggling with child support payments.
    In 2013? It comes up on the internet immediately. But are they the same Martin Thomas?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    @MaxPB the symptoms sound exactly like mine.

    Feeling slightly under the weather, a bit blocked up, coughing and sneezing. Very similar to how I felt after my first jab, to be honest.

    How are you getting along? Recovering well I hope. Wife and I are off work next week so hoping to be done and dusted by Wednesday, our isolation will be over then anyway.
  • MaxPB said:

    @MaxPB the symptoms sound exactly like mine.

    Feeling slightly under the weather, a bit blocked up, coughing and sneezing. Very similar to how I felt after my first jab, to be honest.

    How are you getting along? Recovering well I hope. Wife and I are off work next week so hoping to be done and dusted by Wednesday, our isolation will be over then anyway.
    I'm on the way, only slightly under today but still waiting on my PCR test to be delivered.

    Thanks for your kind words and best wishes to you and your wife
  • Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
    Would it? Can fish be an adjective?

    But you reminded me:
    There once was a fisher named Fisher
    Who fished for fish in a fissure
    The fish with a grin
    Pulled the fisherman in
    Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
    Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.

    Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
    Fish! (I order you to use a rod to catch aquatic animals)
    Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others)
    Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others)
    Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)

    But I can't work out how to do 5 fish.
    Fish fish (fish from the town of Fish), Fish fish fish (who are hunted by other fish from the same town) fish Fish fish (in turn also hunt for fish from this delightful Southern US settlement).

    Same as the Buffalo one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Germany running at 50k cases a day and it not much Omicron is not an ideal situation.

    On the positive side, at least their Delta explosion is now on the down swing...

    Before they get their Omicron up swing.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    Oliver Johnson @BristOliver

    Looks like Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday (54.2% on 14th December specimens). And it's extremely striking how England growth (red) is at exactly the same speed as London (blue). Two regression lines are basically parallel, just England is ~4 days behind.


    Omicron doubling every two days both in London and (with the four-day lag) in England as a whole.

    Chart here:

    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1471899191957987328

    By the time Boris announces a lockdown om the 3rd Jan, be on the way down.
    BoJo in the last chance saloon... Oh please let it be Rishi "12 houses" Sunak, since I'm sure the Red Wall will agree that a Wykhamist hedge fund manager is the perfect choice to cancel an Etonian chancer.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    rcs1000 said:

    Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    It's political correctness gone mad.
    I'm not zealous about all-women shortlists, but it does seem a little odd that they couldn't find a woman to run an organisation called "Women for Women".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
    Would it? Can fish be an adjective?

    But you reminded me:
    There once was a fisher named Fisher
    Who fished for fish in a fissure
    The fish with a grin
    Pulled the fisherman in
    Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
    Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.

    Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
    Fish! (I order you to use a rod to catch aquatic animals)
    Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others)
    Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others)
    Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)

    But I can't work out how to do 5 fish.
    Any evolutionary biologist would tell you. Though this cheats a bit by using 'fish' in both cladistic and traditional classificatory senses. The key point is that fish are either fish fish (as they primitively are) or non-fish fish (evolved to tetrapods including thee and me).

    Fish fish fish Fish fish. (plesiomorphic vertebrates from Fish catch others from Fish)
    PS IN fact you could extend that to object as well as subject to get the full half dozen -

    Fish fish fish Fish fish fish.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    edited December 2021

    Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?

    Add milk, thank me later.

    And you're after a Ragu - in Bologna they don't do what you want.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
    Well we know that not to be the case now with three dose immunity providing between a 93% and 95% reduction in severe symptoms.
    They're gonna lock us down, tho

    FUCK
    Not sure they'll get a chance, it won't happen this side of the New Year and by then it should be fairly obvious that Omi isn't causing 67m people to die every 8 seconds or whatever ridiculous output they've got from the model.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.

    Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.

    He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.

    Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.

    Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.

    The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b

    an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.

    It's political correctness gone mad.
    I'm not zealous about all-women shortlists, but it does seem a little odd that they couldn't find a woman to run an organisation called "Women for Women".
    Maybe Martin identifies as a woman?
  • Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?

    Whats wrong with fish?
  • Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?

    Whats wrong with fish?
    Mixed with buffalo.
  • Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    Clearly Ireland think Omicron goes to bed early....And Wales that it takes Christmas off.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    IanB2 said:

    A few comments from ConHome:

    "Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"

    "Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."

    "News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."

    "As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."

    "The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."

    "I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"

    "The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "

    "Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."

    "Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."

    "My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."

    "Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."

    "Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."

    "I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"

    "This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."

    "This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."

    Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.

    The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
    Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.

    And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Completely OT. A great story in the Guardian about the case of the film director who was sued by Leni Riefenstahl for libel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/dec/09/burying-leni-riefenstahl-nina-gladitz-lifelong-crusade-hitler-film-maker?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
    Why would pubs and restaurants even bother opening if they have to close at 5pm, as you say 8pm is rubbish as well.

    I think the whole of Europe should stop fannying about with restrictions and get boosting.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Hmm, PB's a politics-mad community, and what are we doing the day after the by-election? Debating Covid. Out there, I think it'll be almost completely forgotten by January.
  • Hmm, PB's a politics-mad community, and what are we doing the day after the by-election? Debating Covid. Out there, I think it'll be almost completely forgotten by January.

    Boris is permanently damaged though. And only get worse with inflation kicking in.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Siri, give me a list of things that don't really help stop the virus but also don't really help the affected businesses.

    Hilariously half-assed, either lock it down or don't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
    Not only that, their curfew is set to last until January 30th!

    "Also agreed at Cabinet:
    * 8pm curfew for pubs, rests and indoor venues including cinemas and theatres
    * Until Jan 30 but kept under review
    * Exception for weddings - midnight and 100 people
    * Sport - spectators limited to 5,000 people or 50%
    @rtenews"


    Ireland has already experienced one of the longest most severe lockdowns in the world. And now this. 6 weeks of an Irish winter and no pubs or restaurants in the evening. Many will close for the duration entirely - an 8pm curfew means you have to start kicking people out at 7-7.30. Utterly miserable
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,130
    tlg86 said:

    Party of NIMBYISM:


    They're clearly hoping to win on aggregate...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited December 2021
    Post number 1000
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Dr John Campbell thinks the government is being heavily influenced by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine model that was based on omicron being as severe as delta. Does anyone now believe that?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Siri, give me a list of things that don't really help stop the virus but also don't really help the affected businesses.

    Hilariously half-assed, either lock it down or don't.
    All the politicians have got an eye on the inquiries and the inevitable question "and what, Prime Mister/President/Chancellor did you do when you were first told about how devastating Omicron would be?"

    Assuming big Omi leaves any of us alive.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
    Not only that, their curfew is set to last until January 30th!

    "Also agreed at Cabinet:
    * 8pm curfew for pubs, rests and indoor venues including cinemas and theatres
    * Until Jan 30 but kept under review
    * Exception for weddings - midnight and 100 people
    * Sport - spectators limited to 5,000 people or 50%
    @rtenews"


    Ireland has already experienced one of the longest most severe lockdowns in the world. And now this. 6 weeks of an Irish winter and no pubs or restaurants in the evening. Many will close for the duration entirely - an 8pm curfew means you have to start kicking people out at 7-7.30. Utterly miserable
    Lockdowns breed lockdowns - the more you do, the less you remember how shit it is.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    Lower Case.
    Is that Best Case, Middle Case or Worst Case?
    Just fight them on their breeches.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
    Well we know that not to be the case now with three dose immunity providing between a 93% and 95% reduction in severe symptoms.
    They're gonna lock us down, tho

    FUCK
    That may be the plan, but the virus has not been spreading as fast as projected in the last two days, and the numbers in hospital with COVID are not rising much at the moment. Case numbers could level off, and if so how will the scientists and modellers explain this after all the frightening forecasts of the last week? By the New Year things could look different.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
    Why would pubs and restaurants even bother opening if they have to close at 5pm, as you say 8pm is rubbish as well.

    I think the whole of Europe should stop fannying about with restrictions and get boosting.
    They are boosting. Could be quicker, of course, but they're moving at quite a rate now:



    Germany is at the same level the UK was at on November 30, so they're about two and a half weeks behind. Of course, they should have started earlier, but at least they're moving now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?

    Spaghetti bolognese isn’t actually a genuine Italian dish.

    Google spaghetti al ragu.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    No rush....

    Le délai pour recevoir sa dose de rappel va passer à 4 mois (au lieu de 5 mois) à partir du lundi 3 janvier, annonce Jean Castex. #Covid19
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
    Not only that, their curfew is set to last until January 30th!

    "Also agreed at Cabinet:
    * 8pm curfew for pubs, rests and indoor venues including cinemas and theatres
    * Until Jan 30 but kept under review
    * Exception for weddings - midnight and 100 people
    * Sport - spectators limited to 5,000 people or 50%
    @rtenews"


    Ireland has already experienced one of the longest most severe lockdowns in the world. And now this. 6 weeks of an Irish winter and no pubs or restaurants in the evening. Many will close for the duration entirely - an 8pm curfew means you have to start kicking people out at 7-7.30. Utterly miserable
    Lockdowns breed lockdowns - the more you do, the less you remember how shit it is.
    Once a nation is on the lockdown path they will keep ratcheting up until something works. Look at the Netherlands, in a lockdown, cases rising again and now talk of further extensions and measures.

    However it's happened here the unelected scientists have had their power taken off them, across Europe they still churn out the same garbage as they do here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    IanB2 said:

    Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?

    Spaghetti bolognese isn’t actually a genuine Italian dish.

    Google spaghetti al ragu.
    Tagliatelle al ragù ricetta, is probably the best search term and Google translate to English.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    IanB2 said:

    Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?

    Spaghetti bolognese isn’t actually a genuine Italian dish.

    Google spaghetti al ragu.
    This is the best I've tried. Slow cooking in mik - seems odd but wow, the flavour is stupendous.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2010/nov/25/how-to-make-perfect-bolognese
  • Christ, BBC have Dr Eric Feigl-Ding on...shakes head
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
    Why would pubs and restaurants even bother opening if they have to close at 5pm, as you say 8pm is rubbish as well.

    I think the whole of Europe should stop fannying about with restrictions and get boosting.
    To be fair the Irish are trying hard to do the boosters as fast as possible, and they already have particularly good two-dose takeup on the over 60s (better than ours). They're a bit behind us on boosters, but doing better than most European countries.

    The latest restrictions do seem half-baked. If they are worried about the spread of Omicron in the short term, they should lock down properly until Xmas, to buy themselves some time to get the boosters done. I doubt if pubs and restaurants can operate profitably with those restrictions.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, read it.

    So with Omicron Vs Delta 60 days after booster:
    90 -> 61% efficacy against mild
    -> 4x as many people will get it

    98.7% -> 92.8% efficacy against severe disease
    -> 5.5x as many people will end up in hospital

    So, if everyone were 60 day boosted and case rates increased 10x with Omicron, hospitalisation rates would be expected to increase about 13.5x (although that is walking in through the door not occupying a bed).

    That's situation in a static boosted population.

    How are they 'calculating' the efficiency ageist Omicron 90 days after infection when Omicron was first identified 25 days ago?

    These must be projections or estimates? and they may tern out to be accurate but but surly there should be a 'health warning with them'?
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Ireland semi locks down


    "Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:

    Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
    Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
    50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"


    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20


    What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening

    Siri, give me a list of things that don't really help stop the virus but also don't really help the affected businesses.

    Hilariously half-assed, either lock it down or don't.
    All the politicians have got an eye on the inquiries and the inevitable question "and what, Prime Mister/President/Chancellor did you do when you were first told about how devastating Omicron would be?"

    Assuming big Omi leaves any of us alive.
    The problem is that people have treated Covid for two years like a league sport where all that matters is minimising cases, hospitalisations and deaths - instead of minimising restrictions and economic damage.
  • Fine, as long as you don't expect the tax payers of England to pick up the bill:

    The first minister says business support should be available for all nations when they are needed, "not just at the point when restrictions are introduced in England"

    https://twitter.com/ITVWales/status/1471820453375324166?s=20
  • algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    A few comments from ConHome:

    "Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"

    "Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."

    "News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."

    "As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."

    "The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."

    "I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"

    "The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "

    "Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."

    "Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."

    "My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."

    "Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."

    "Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."

    "I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"

    "This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."

    "This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."

    Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.

    The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
    Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.

    And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.

    Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
  • glw said:

    Leon said:

    Thank God that Mark Drakeford is bringing back the ‘one way system’ in Welsh shops and supermarkets

    That’s surely a gamechanger. No way OMICRON - which is 70 times quicker at spreading than Delta - will be able to get past that mighty wall of Welsh logic. Ok yes, 1 infected person in a room with 100 people can infect half of them in about 6 minutes BUT NOT IF THEY ARE WALKING SLOWLY, STARING DOWN AT ARROWS ON A FLOOR, BUMPING INTO EACH OTHER


    There must come a time when Drakeford - THE DRAKE - will rightly be summoned to head a government of national unity and hand-washing protocols

    Oven gloves sales banned again...
    I don't get why anyone is bringing back the rules that were devised for Wuhan coronavirus when people were mainly concerned about droplets spreading it. Surely at the very least such rules need to be examined again?
    Why is there such EXTREME RESISTANCE by
    @WHO
    ,
    @CDCGov
    and IPC(*) to clearly state that COVID-19 is a dominantly AIRBORNE disease?

    TLDR: see slide

    https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1470825435579621377
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Fine, as long as you don't expect the tax payers of England to pick up the bill:

    The first minister says business support should be available for all nations when they are needed, "not just at the point when restrictions are introduced in England"

    https://twitter.com/ITVWales/status/1471820453375324166?s=20

    I don't understand, doesn't she have tax raising powers?
  • Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Case is off the partygate case because of an alleged case under Case

    It is possible to imagine someone in Downing Street uttering THIS sentence at about 4pm this afternoon:


    "Who's on the Case case? Case?"

    We could even have heard a


    "Who is on the Case case case? Case?"

    Obviously still not as good as the immortal

    Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo
    The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
    Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion

    English is a brilliantly mad language
    I just wish there was something using a more commonplace word. But we're always hampered having to use the plural form to get the s-less verb, or vice versa.
    Scotch would almost work if it weren't for that!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Fine, as long as you don't expect the tax payers of England to pick up the bill:

    The first minister says business support should be available for all nations when they are needed, "not just at the point when restrictions are introduced in England"

    https://twitter.com/ITVWales/status/1471820453375324166?s=20

    "For all nations" = our tax moneys too, and spent on all nations under Barnett.

    Fact is, Scotland's paying 66m to hospitality businesses pulled from other budgets. Do you think that is right or wrong?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    MaxPB said:

    Fine, as long as you don't expect the tax payers of England to pick up the bill:

    The first minister says business support should be available for all nations when they are needed, "not just at the point when restrictions are introduced in England"

    https://twitter.com/ITVWales/status/1471820453375324166?s=20

    I don't understand, doesn't she have tax raising powers?
    Limited, ditto borrowing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/17/sturgeons-urgency-on-covid-hits-brick-wall-of-johnson-optimism
  • BigRich said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, read it.

    So with Omicron Vs Delta 60 days after booster:
    90 -> 61% efficacy against mild
    -> 4x as many people will get it

    98.7% -> 92.8% efficacy against severe disease
    -> 5.5x as many people will end up in hospital

    So, if everyone were 60 day boosted and case rates increased 10x with Omicron, hospitalisation rates would be expected to increase about 13.5x (although that is walking in through the door not occupying a bed).

    That's situation in a static boosted population.

    How are they 'calculating' the efficiency ageist Omicron 90 days after infection when Omicron was first identified 25 days ago?

    These must be projections or estimates? and they may tern out to be accurate but but surly there should be a 'health warning with them'?
    It's 90 days after booster jab, not after infection. But I do agree that it seems odd that they think they already have enough data to produce those figures.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    BigRich said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, read it.

    So with Omicron Vs Delta 60 days after booster:
    90 -> 61% efficacy against mild
    -> 4x as many people will get it

    98.7% -> 92.8% efficacy against severe disease
    -> 5.5x as many people will end up in hospital

    So, if everyone were 60 day boosted and case rates increased 10x with Omicron, hospitalisation rates would be expected to increase about 13.5x (although that is walking in through the door not occupying a bed).

    That's situation in a static boosted population.

    How are they 'calculating' the efficiency ageist Omicron 90 days after infection when Omicron was first identified 25 days ago?

    These must be projections or estimates? and they may tern out to be accurate but but surly there should be a 'health warning with them'?
    90 days after booster.
This discussion has been closed.