Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
Denmark, I think.
I think the same stories are being run about them in some places.
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
Pretty much. The number of people round the world doing country comparisons based on cases and who haven't realised that there is a testing rate......
Just to partly answer the earlier question for Germany, you can look (for example) at the weekly report here:
At the bottom of page 33 there is a table which shows out of a total of 4038 random positive samples that were sequenced 4015 were Delta and 23 were Omicron (there will also be quite a few other confirmed omicron cases that were sampled but not part of this random check, for example my wife's hospital does a PCR test on everyone who comes in, and every positive test is then sequenced - but these won't appear in the data. So far they have had one omicron case confirmed, and the hospital is in an Omicron "hotspot" with several confirmed cases in the area). That was calendar week 48: 29th November to 5th December.
So the week before last was still overwhelmingly Delta. This makes sense as the incidence rate has also been falling slightly over the last 2 weeks - which would probably not be happening if Omicron was already dominant.
There's probably some more up to date data somewhere.
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
Headline figures are people with covid, regardless of whether they're admitted because of covid. The government also publishes weekly figures showing the number of incidental admissions compared to admissions caused by covid.
My mum is an incidental admission today, she's got COVID but also has an ear infection and has been asked to stay for observation because of a pre-existing hearing loss condition. Happily her COVID symptoms are mostly gone.
Hope she gets better soon.
where does the Gov publish the Covid Covid Vs incidental covid weekly fingers? might add it to my faverats list and start checking so can see if how bad or not omicron is.
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Plenty of comments on ConHome are not from Tory members.
Same thing happened on Labour List, which is why they closed the comments there years ago - though there it was both anti-Labour types and Corbynistas having a pop at mainstream Labour.
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
Denmark, I think.
I think the same stories are being run about them in some places.
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
Pretty much. The number of people round the world doing country comparisons based on cases and who haven't realised that there is a testing rate......
Just to partly answer the earlier question for Germany, you can look (for example) at the weekly report here:
At the bottom of page 33 there is a table which shows out of a total of 4038 random positive samples that were sequenced 4015 were Delta and 23 were Omicron (there will also be quite a few other confirmed omicron cases that were sampled but not part of this random check, for example my wife's hospital does a PCR test on everyone who comes in, and every positive test is then sequenced - but these won't appear in the data. So far they have had one omicron case confirmed, and the hospital is in an Omicron "hotspot" with several confirmed cases in the area). That was calendar week 48: 29th November to 5th December.
So the week before last was still overwhelmingly Delta. This makes sense as the incidence rate has also been falling slightly over the last 2 weeks - which would probably not be happening if Omicron was already dominant.
There's probably some more up to date data somewhere.
Germany is about 2 weeks behind the UK? Rough guess?
But it is coming to you, especially as you have a land border with Denmark
I wonder if it is already showing in the Dutch stats, where cases were obviously receding, until the last few days. Now they tick up, despite a curfew
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
I just wish there was something using a more commonplace word. But we're always hampered having to use the plural form to get the s-less verb, or vice versa.
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
Headline figures are people with covid, regardless of whether they're admitted because of covid. The government also publishes weekly figures showing the number of incidental admissions compared to admissions caused by covid.
My mum is an incidental admission today, she's got COVID but also has an ear infection and has been asked to stay for observation because of a pre-existing hearing loss condition. Happily her COVID symptoms are mostly gone.
Hope she gets better soon.
where does the Gov publish the Covid Covid Vs incidental covid weekly fingers? might add it to my faverats list and start checking so can see if how bad or not omicron is.
No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy
What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
I just wish there was something using a more commonplace word. But we're always hampered having to use the plural form to get the s-less verb, or vice versa.
Perfectly grammatical account of a grammar examination:
Farooq, where Leon had had "had", had had "had had." "Had had" had had the examiner's approval.
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
Denmark, I think.
I think the same stories are being run about them in some places.
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
Pretty much. The number of people round the world doing country comparisons based on cases and who haven't realised that there is a testing rate......
Just to partly answer the earlier question for Germany, you can look (for example) at the weekly report here:
At the bottom of page 33 there is a table which shows out of a total of 4038 random positive samples that were sequenced 4015 were Delta and 23 were Omicron (there will also be quite a few other confirmed omicron cases that were sampled but not part of this random check, for example my wife's hospital does a PCR test on everyone who comes in, and every positive test is then sequenced - but these won't appear in the data. So far they have had one omicron case confirmed, and the hospital is in an Omicron "hotspot" with several confirmed cases in the area). That was calendar week 48: 29th November to 5th December.
So the week before last was still overwhelmingly Delta. This makes sense as the incidence rate has also been falling slightly over the last 2 weeks - which would probably not be happening if Omicron was already dominant.
There's probably some more up to date data somewhere.
Germany is about 2 weeks behind the UK? Rough guess?
But it is coming to you, especially as you have a land border with Denmark
I wonder if it is already showing in the Dutch stats, where cases were obviously receding, until the last few days. Now they tick up, despite a curfew
Yes I'm assuming maybe 2 weeks behind if we're lucky. Germany is probably less than that behind in terms of booster shots, and that is going quite fast.
The problem is the millions of older people who are still unvaccinated - and even if they could be persuaded it's obviously too late to get them triple-jabbed in time.
The other day the NRW health minister said people could get their booster jabs just 4 weeks after the second dose, but they have since rowed back on that, although it is unclear how long people have to wait now. The national advice is 5 months last time I looked, but it seems possible to get it quite a bit earlier if you insist...
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
Thanks, next week is the earliest I can get one unless I stand and queue. I don't mind waiting as I'm already isolating prior to going to my parents' for the holidays so won't be going anywhere at all (except to get my booster). I also had Delta in the summer shortly after my second dose which gives me a bit more immunity I'd say.
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
Do you have any idea of the vax efficacy in preventing "moderate" illness? ie something like a mild flu which puts you in bed for a week, but where you don't ever need hospital?
This could be the crucial metric in the next few weeks, and will decide whether the NHS - and the wider economy - seizes up entirely. Look at that news from the London Fire Brigade. Nearly a third of fire engines out of action due to staff shortages. Already
So with Omicron Vs Delta 60 days after booster: 90 -> 61% efficacy against mild -> 4x as many people will get it
98.7% -> 92.8% efficacy against severe disease -> 5.5x as many people will end up in hospital
So, if everyone were 60 day boosted and case rates increased 10x with Omicron, hospitalisation rates would be expected to increase about 13.5x (although that is walking in through the door not occupying a bed).
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy
What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
According to him - tiredness, sneezing, coughing, runny nose and general lack of concentration
According to my sister - man flu so he can stay upstairs and isolate with his PS5 and leave her to look after the kids because she hasn't got symptoms!
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
I just wish there was something using a more commonplace word. But we're always hampered having to use the plural form to get the s-less verb, or vice versa.
Perfectly grammatical account of a grammar examination:
Farooq, where Leon had had "had", had had "had had." "Had had" had had the examiner's approval.
Are there hyphens between "horse" and "and" and "and" and "cart"?
The point with the buffalo thing is that it works with ANY number of words. Buffalo! Buffalo buffalo. Buffalo buffalo buffalo. Etc. I think you need a plural-noun, verb, adjective to make it work.
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:
Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:
94.5% 30 days after booster 92.8% 60 days after booster 90.7% 90 days after booster
They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
I like that. My favorite of these, though, is:
1 1 was a racehorse 2 2 was one too 1 1 won one race 2 2 won one too
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
Do you have any idea of the vax efficacy in preventing "moderate" illness? ie something like a mild flu which puts you in bed for a week, but where you don't ever need hospital?
This could be the crucial metric in the next few weeks, and will decide whether the NHS - and the wider economy - seizes up entirely. Look at that news from the London Fire Brigade. Nearly a third of fire engines out of action due to staff shortages. Already
Somewhat ominous
Do they make London firemen do flow tests a couple of times a week even if they feel fine? Or is that people who actually can’t get out of bed?
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:
Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:
94.5% 30 days after booster 92.8% 60 days after booster 90.7% 90 days after booster
They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
The ideal outcome seems to be we all get boosted and we all get infected not long after in order to top up with natural immunity.
No point not getting infected and having immunity wane only to get infected a few months down the line.
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
Denmark, I think.
I think the same stories are being run about them in some places.
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
Pretty much. The number of people round the world doing country comparisons based on cases and who haven't realised that there is a testing rate......
Just to partly answer the earlier question for Germany, you can look (for example) at the weekly report here:
At the bottom of page 33 there is a table which shows out of a total of 4038 random positive samples that were sequenced 4015 were Delta and 23 were Omicron (there will also be quite a few other confirmed omicron cases that were sampled but not part of this random check, for example my wife's hospital does a PCR test on everyone who comes in, and every positive test is then sequenced - but these won't appear in the data. So far they have had one omicron case confirmed, and the hospital is in an Omicron "hotspot" with several confirmed cases in the area). That was calendar week 48: 29th November to 5th December.
So the week before last was still overwhelmingly Delta. This makes sense as the incidence rate has also been falling slightly over the last 2 weeks - which would probably not be happening if Omicron was already dominant.
There's probably some more up to date data somewhere.
Germany is about 2 weeks behind the UK? Rough guess?
But it is coming to you, especially as you have a land border with Denmark
I wonder if it is already showing in the Dutch stats, where cases were obviously receding, until the last few days. Now they tick up, despite a curfew
Yes I'm assuming maybe 2 weeks behind if we're lucky. Germany is probably less than that behind in terms of booster shots, and that is going quite fast.
The problem is the millions of older people who are still unvaccinated - and even if they could be persuaded it's obviously too late to get them triple-jabbed in time.
The other day the NRW health minister said people could get their booster jabs just 4 weeks after the second dose, but they have since rowed back on that, although it is unclear how long people have to wait now. The national advice is 5 months last time I looked, but it seems possible to get it quite a bit earlier if you insist...
January is going to be scary right across Europe. That's baked in now. On the upside, we should all be through the worst - in our part of the world - by February (God willing, touch wood, etc etc etc)
No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:
Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:
94.5% 30 days after booster 92.8% 60 days after booster 90.7% 90 days after booster
They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
Confounding factor given Omicron transmissibility is plenty will get a natural booster, avoiding severe disease, in that 90 day window.
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
As the Irish Doctor's Association wisely observed early in the vaccine roll out when people were waiting for Pfizer The best vaccine you can have is the one you can have NOW.
Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:
Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:
94.5% 30 days after booster 92.8% 60 days after booster 90.7% 90 days after booster
They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
The ideal outcome seems to be we all get boosted and we all get infected not long after in order to top up with natural immunity.
No point not getting infected and having immunity wane only to get infected a few months down the line.
So what you’re saying is Valentine’s Day orgies all round? Or just the PB meet up in Feb will do?
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.
Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy
What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
According to him - tiredness, sneezing, coughing, runny nose and general lack of concentration
According to my sister - man flu so he can stay upstairs and isolate with his PS5 and leave her to look after the kids because she hasn't got symptoms!
That doesn't sound too bad
I was much worse the week before last (tho I tested negative). Could barely stay awake for 3 days, quasi-delirious, loss of sense of smell, tottering about if I did get up. I even stopped drinking
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
What is the effectiveness against catching Delta and Omicron in the study?
90-92 against symptomatic infection for Delta vs 61-68% for symptomatic infection vs Omicron. That's where the big loss is, my friend's theory is that this is because antibody binding efficiency has been reduced quite significantly but t-cell immunity remains mostly unchanged. That means people are going to get infected (he models that VE against asymptomatic infection with three doses may be as low as 20-30%) but not experience severe symptoms. Three doses gives very good t-cell based immunity while 2 doses doesn't seem to.
Do you have any idea of the vax efficacy in preventing "moderate" illness? ie something like a mild flu which puts you in bed for a week, but where you don't ever need hospital?
This could be the crucial metric in the next few weeks, and will decide whether the NHS - and the wider economy - seizes up entirely. Look at that news from the London Fire Brigade. Nearly a third of fire engines out of action due to staff shortages. Already
Somewhat ominous
Yeah that's the 61-68% for boosted people. Remember these are percentage reductions in cases rather than risk reduction figures.
The issue is the isolation rules, at some point we're going to have to make the call and say "fuck it, infected people with no symptoms can continue as before and get rid of isolation for triple jabbed contacts entirely.
What's really difficult to project with Omicron is how quickly it's going to get to all of us, this really could be over in a few weeks.
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
“ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
“ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
IIRC Martin Thomas gave Boris Johnson an expensive vintage watch.
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.
Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
Fish! (I order you to use a rod to catch aquatic animals) Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others) Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others) Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
It's marginal, what's more important, IMO, is getting the booster sooner than next week. That's going to benefit you more than any difference between Pfizer and Moderna boosters. I'd highly recommend trying to go ASAP. My wife, my sister, my brother-in-law and I have all come down with Omicron because we simply couldn't get a booster early enough due to government restrictions. My brother in law is experiencing more than mild symptoms too. A booster a week earlier would have meant all of us being better immunised and experiencing no infection or no symptoms at all. @dixiedean is another PBer who can speak to this.
Sympathies to all PB-ers - and their folk and friends - with the latest lurgy
What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
According to him - tiredness, sneezing, coughing, runny nose and general lack of concentration
According to my sister - man flu so he can stay upstairs and isolate with his PS5 and leave her to look after the kids because she hasn't got symptoms!
Hopefully everybody is feeling better in time for the holidays - I remember from my brush with Delta in the summer although I was over the worst of it in a couple of days, I still spent a couple of weeks feeling not quite right (like 95% instead of 100%) which wasn't great!
Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.
Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.
I don’t think I’ll be offering.
I''d be surprised if we hit that hospitalisation rate, let alone deaths.
Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.
Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
Here we go: Fish Creek, also known as Fish, or Fish Station, GA
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:
Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:
94.5% 30 days after booster 92.8% 60 days after booster 90.7% 90 days after booster
They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
Everyone over 50 will undoubtedly be asked to get 4th doses around Easter. It seems as though the vaccines, as they are currently made (specifically targeting the spike), don't generate a very high t-cell immune response. Hopefully the gen 2 vaccines will address this as well as future variants.
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
I'm surprised they've got enough data to come up with that table, but, taking it at face value, one thing is a bit concerning: the effectiveness of the triple-dose regimes seems to fall noticeably over 90 days:
Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:
94.5% 30 days after booster 92.8% 60 days after booster 90.7% 90 days after booster
They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
The ideal outcome seems to be we all get boosted and we all get infected not long after in order to top up with natural immunity.
No point not getting infected and having immunity wane only to get infected a few months down the line.
So what you’re saying is Valentine’s Day orgies all round? Or just the PB meet up in Feb will do?
New Year's parties seem like a fantastic idea. Time to rip off the bandage and burn all masks. ;Everyone will be boosted by then, even the non-vulnerable, so time to call this crap over.
The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.
Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
Fish! (I order you to use a rod to catch aquatic animals) Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others) Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others) Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)
But I can't work out how to do 5 fish.
Any evolutionary biologist would tell you. Though this cheats a bit by using 'fish' in both cladistic and traditional classificatory senses. The key point is that fish are either fish fish (as they primitively are) or non-fish fish (evolved to tetrapods including thee and me).
Fish fish fish Fish fish. (plesiomorphic vertebrates from Fish catch others from Fish)
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
“ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
IIRC Martin Thomas gave Boris Johnson an expensive vintage watch.
That's charity, that is: giving to a down on the heels journalist who is struggling with child support payments.
The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
Well we know that not to be the case now with three dose immunity providing between a 93% and 95% reduction in severe symptoms.
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
Well we know that not to be the case now with three dose immunity providing between a 93% and 95% reduction in severe symptoms.
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
“ Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.”
IIRC Martin Thomas gave Boris Johnson an expensive vintage watch.
That's charity, that is: giving to a down on the heels journalist who is struggling with child support payments.
In 2013? It comes up on the internet immediately. But are they the same Martin Thomas?
Feeling slightly under the weather, a bit blocked up, coughing and sneezing. Very similar to how I felt after my first jab, to be honest.
How are you getting along? Recovering well I hope. Wife and I are off work next week so hoping to be done and dusted by Wednesday, our isolation will be over then anyway.
Feeling slightly under the weather, a bit blocked up, coughing and sneezing. Very similar to how I felt after my first jab, to be honest.
How are you getting along? Recovering well I hope. Wife and I are off work next week so hoping to be done and dusted by Wednesday, our isolation will be over then anyway.
I'm on the way, only slightly under today but still waiting on my PCR test to be delivered.
Thanks for your kind words and best wishes to you and your wife
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.
Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
Fish! (I order you to use a rod to catch aquatic animals) Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others) Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others) Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)
But I can't work out how to do 5 fish.
Fish fish (fish from the town of Fish), Fish fish fish (who are hunted by other fish from the same town) fish Fish fish (in turn also hunt for fish from this delightful Southern US settlement).
Looks like Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday (54.2% on 14th December specimens). And it's extremely striking how England growth (red) is at exactly the same speed as London (blue). Two regression lines are basically parallel, just England is ~4 days behind.
Omicron doubling every two days both in London and (with the four-day lag) in England as a whole.
By the time Boris announces a lockdown om the 3rd Jan, be on the way down.
BoJo in the last chance saloon... Oh please let it be Rishi "12 houses" Sunak, since I'm sure the Red Wall will agree that a Wykhamist hedge fund manager is the perfect choice to cancel an Etonian chancer.
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
It's political correctness gone mad.
I'm not zealous about all-women shortlists, but it does seem a little odd that they couldn't find a woman to run an organisation called "Women for Women".
The Buffalo one is rubbish. You invariably have to explain the verb form of the word to people. Nobody here uses that word.
Of course it's rubbish. The important thing is that it is grammatically correct and makes a coherent assertion
English is a brilliantly mad language
Would work with the word fish if there’s a village called Fish somewhere.
Would it? Can fish be an adjective?
But you reminded me: There once was a fisher named Fisher Who fished for fish in a fissure The fish with a grin Pulled the fisherman in Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
Yes, if there were a place called Fish. Let me take a quick look on Google maps.
Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
Fish! (I order you to use a rod to catch aquatic animals) Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others) Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others) Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)
But I can't work out how to do 5 fish.
Any evolutionary biologist would tell you. Though this cheats a bit by using 'fish' in both cladistic and traditional classificatory senses. The key point is that fish are either fish fish (as they primitively are) or non-fish fish (evolved to tetrapods including thee and me).
Fish fish fish Fish fish. (plesiomorphic vertebrates from Fish catch others from Fish)
PS IN fact you could extend that to object as well as subject to get the full half dozen -
The only phrase of note on that is “No data on severe disease” in the immunity escape row. Which we all here know is Billy Bullshit. Relax. It will be fine.
Well we know that not to be the case now with three dose immunity providing between a 93% and 95% reduction in severe symptoms.
They're gonna lock us down, tho
FUCK
Not sure they'll get a chance, it won't happen this side of the New Year and by then it should be fairly obvious that Omi isn't causing 67m people to die every 8 seconds or whatever ridiculous output they've got from the model.
Another scandal. This government couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
It's political correctness gone mad.
I'm not zealous about all-women shortlists, but it does seem a little odd that they couldn't find a woman to run an organisation called "Women for Women".
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Hmm, PB's a politics-mad community, and what are we doing the day after the by-election? Debating Covid. Out there, I think it'll be almost completely forgotten by January.
Hmm, PB's a politics-mad community, and what are we doing the day after the by-election? Debating Covid. Out there, I think it'll be almost completely forgotten by January.
Boris is permanently damaged though. And only get worse with inflation kicking in.
What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening
Their boffins wanted a 5pm close time. An absolute killer for pubs and restaurants, and 8pm is not much better (and seems pointless).
Not only that, their curfew is set to last until January 30th!
"Also agreed at Cabinet: * 8pm curfew for pubs, rests and indoor venues including cinemas and theatres * Until Jan 30 but kept under review * Exception for weddings - midnight and 100 people * Sport - spectators limited to 5,000 people or 50% @rtenews"
Ireland has already experienced one of the longest most severe lockdowns in the world. And now this. 6 weeks of an Irish winter and no pubs or restaurants in the evening. Many will close for the duration entirely - an 8pm curfew means you have to start kicking people out at 7-7.30. Utterly miserable
Comments
English is a brilliantly mad language
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-12-16.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
At the bottom of page 33 there is a table which shows out of a total of 4038 random positive samples that were sequenced 4015 were Delta and 23 were Omicron (there will also be quite a few other confirmed omicron cases that were sampled but not part of this random check, for example my wife's hospital does a PCR test on everyone who comes in, and every positive test is then sequenced - but these won't appear in the data. So far they have had one omicron case confirmed, and the hospital is in an Omicron "hotspot" with several confirmed cases in the area). That was calendar week 48: 29th November to 5th December.
So the week before last was still overwhelmingly Delta. This makes sense as the incidence rate has also been falling slightly over the last 2 weeks - which would probably not be happening if Omicron was already dominant.
There's probably some more up to date data somewhere.
To me, it still doesn't seem possible to have the faintest clue what's going on with Omicron, as yet.
where does the Gov publish the Covid Covid Vs incidental covid weekly fingers? might add it to my faverats list and start checking so can see if how bad or not omicron is.
Same thing happened on Labour List, which is why they closed the comments there years ago - though there it was both anti-Labour types and Corbynistas having a pop at mainstream Labour. UK one here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview
But it is coming to you, especially as you have a land border with Denmark
I wonder if it is already showing in the Dutch stats, where cases were obviously receding, until the last few days. Now they tick up, despite a curfew
The man brought in to turn around the fortunes of the nationalised shipyard building delayed CalMac ferries is leaving his post.
Tim Hair has earned almost £1.3m for 454 days’ work since being appointed to lead Ferguson Marine by the Scottish Government in 2019.
https://news.stv.tv/scotland/ferguson-marine-turnaround-boss-leaves-before-delayed-ferries-finished
But there's no more money for hospitality.....
What are your bro in law's symptoms, if I may ask?
Or
Fuck! The fucking fucker's fucking fucked. Fuck!
Farooq, where Leon had had "had", had had "had had." "Had had" had had the examiner's approval.
But you reminded me:
There once was a fisher named Fisher
Who fished for fish in a fissure
The fish with a grin
Pulled the fisherman in
Now they're fishing the fissure for Fisher
The problem is the millions of older people who are still unvaccinated - and even if they could be persuaded it's obviously too late to get them triple-jabbed in time.
The other day the NRW health minister said people could get their booster jabs just 4 weeks after the second dose, but they have since rowed back on that, although it is unclear how long people have to wait now. The national advice is 5 months last time I looked, but it seems possible to get it quite a bit earlier if you insist...
This could be the crucial metric in the next few weeks, and will decide whether the NHS - and the wider economy - seizes up entirely. Look at that news from the London Fire Brigade. Nearly a third of fire engines out of action due to staff shortages. Already
Somewhat ominous
So with Omicron Vs Delta 60 days after booster:
90 -> 61% efficacy against mild
-> 4x as many people will get it
98.7% -> 92.8% efficacy against severe disease
-> 5.5x as many people will end up in hospital
So, if everyone were 60 day boosted and case rates increased 10x with Omicron, hospitalisation rates would be expected to increase about 13.5x (although that is walking in through the door not occupying a bed).
That's situation in a static boosted population.
According to my sister - man flu so he can stay upstairs and isolate with his PS5 and leave her to look after the kids because she hasn't got symptoms!
The point with the buffalo thing is that it works with ANY number of words.
Buffalo!
Buffalo buffalo.
Buffalo buffalo buffalo.
Etc.
I think you need a plural-noun, verb, adjective to make it work.
Effectiveness against severe disease, triple jab, Omicron:
94.5% 30 days after booster
92.8% 60 days after booster
90.7% 90 days after booster
They quote exactly the same figures and confidence intervals for AZ-AZ-PF and PF-PF-PF, which seems odd.
1 1 was a racehorse
2 2 was one too
1 1 won one race
2 2 won one too
or, spelled differently
11 was a racehorse
22 was 12
1111 race
22112
I got to the side entrance on Pancras Rd. You walk down to Euston Road. Wow that’s a long queue!
Oh wait, that’s not the end. It goes along Euston Rd to the corner by the British Library & wraps back up Midland Road. Madness.
https://twitter.com/public_culture_/status/1471891923812208651
No point not getting infected and having immunity wane only to get infected a few months down the line.
The best vaccine you can have is the one you can have NOW.
- New cases: 20,713
- Average: 23,626 (+243)
- Positivity rate: 30.4% (-0.5)
- In hospital: 7,932 (+318)
- In ICU: 528 (+19)
- New deaths: 35
- Average: 31 (+2)
Much as I hate to quote the Daily Mail, apparently we're on track for 5k death a day according to Neil Ferguson. I would be quite happy to make a bet against that if anyone wants to offer one.
Nothing doing on there, it just wants to advertise fish and chip shops to me (it is Friday after all) but a Google search then gives me Fish, GA. Good old USA.
The new head of the charity watchdog quit today before officially taking up his post after The Times uncovered how “inappropriate behaviour” led to his resignation from an aid agency.
Martin Thomas, 58, a friend of Boris Johnson, was confirmed as chairman of the Charity Commission last week by the culture secretary Nadine Dorries.
He was due to begin work on December 27 but stepped down after The Times raised questions about his appointment in the wake of his role in a bullying investigation this year when he was chairman of Women For Women International UK.
Thomas faced three formal misconduct complaints during his five years at the charity, including an incident in 2018 when he sent a picture of himself taken in a Victoria’s Secret store to a junior female employee.
In May he resigned as chairman of Women For Women just as the charity was about to ask him to step down after an investigation into alleged bullying concluded that he had behaved inappropriately towards a different employee.
Women For Women filed a “serious incident report” on the case, identifying its chairman as the subject of the allegations, to the charity commission.
The situation is embarrassing for Dorries and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and raises questions over what due diligence was performed and whether Thomas’s links with the prime minister influenced the appointment process.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/be277850-5f54-11ec-8fac-c70e630faee6?shareToken=d1354bb5aa4cca56ca79d36c4c75853b
I was much worse the week before last (tho I tested negative). Could barely stay awake for 3 days, quasi-delirious, loss of sense of smell, tottering about if I did get up. I even stopped drinking
We've got everyone vulnerable who wants to get boosted, boosted already.
We've got increasing millions of non-vulnerable people boosted too.
Just what more do you want?
The issue is the isolation rules, at some point we're going to have to make the call and say "fuck it, infected people with no symptoms can continue as before and get rid of isolation for triple jabbed contacts entirely.
What's really difficult to project with Omicron is how quickly it's going to get to all of us, this really could be over in a few weeks.
It looks terrible
Fish fish. (aquatic animals catch others)
Fish fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others)
Fish fish Fish fish. (aquatic animals from Fish catch others from Fish)
But I can't work out how to do 5 fish.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_Creek,_Georgia
Fish fish fish Fish fish. (plesiomorphic vertebrates from Fish catch others from Fish)
Feeling slightly under the weather, a bit blocked up, coughing and sneezing. Very similar to how I felt after my first jab, to be honest.
It's political correctness gone mad.
FUCK
Thanks for your kind words and best wishes to you and your wife
Same as the Buffalo one.
Before they get their Omicron up swing.
Fish fish fish Fish fish fish.
And you're after a Ragu - in Bologna they don't do what you want.
"Ireland is introducing new restrictions due to the Omicron variant:
Hospitality, cinemas & theatres to close at 8pm
Weddings capped at 100 people & midnight cut off
50% capacity at sporting events, max 5,000"
https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1471910732417667078?s=20
What's the point in an 8pm closure for cinemas? Pubs will just not bother opening
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/dec/09/burying-leni-riefenstahl-nina-gladitz-lifelong-crusade-hitler-film-maker?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
I think the whole of Europe should stop fannying about with restrictions and get boosting.
https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1471907339397738502?s=20
Hilariously half-assed, either lock it down or don't.
"Also agreed at Cabinet:
* 8pm curfew for pubs, rests and indoor venues including cinemas and theatres
* Until Jan 30 but kept under review
* Exception for weddings - midnight and 100 people
* Sport - spectators limited to 5,000 people or 50%
@rtenews"
Ireland has already experienced one of the longest most severe lockdowns in the world. And now this. 6 weeks of an Irish winter and no pubs or restaurants in the evening. Many will close for the duration entirely - an 8pm curfew means you have to start kicking people out at 7-7.30. Utterly miserable