"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
Quite right too, he was by far the best candidate at the time. He got the country out of the Brexit morass and saw off Corbyn with an 80 seat majority. Mission accomplished!
The problem is that voters don't (and shouldn't) do gratitude. That's done now, he's served his purpose, the question is who's best for the future and right now it seems hard to think that Boris is the answer.
Out of the morass? Bit early to claim that. UK split legally and economically as well as geographically, inward customs still not implemented, and so on. But it's Friday evening and dinner calls. Night all.
Yes we are out of the morass. We were in a mess with an agreement with a backstop that Parliament quite rightly wouldn't back, but nor would they back anything else. Article 50 just kept being extended and there were no viable alternatives.
Boris had a solution for that, Hunt and May didn't. So the members made the right choice.
Yes there may be issues going forwards, but that's the future's problem. That's not the same as the problems of the past. As I said, Boris dealt with the problems we had then, that's not the same thing as saying he'll be best for the problems of the future.
La La La La La
Why don't you regale us all with the one about how the UK Treasury will be paying an independent Scotland's pensions?
Away you cretin , losers always whine when found out , typical lying Tory. I said they would hav eto pay up as part of teh settlement and that would cover the pension payments Scots had made. Another snivelling little Tory jessie boy, GIRUY.
Malcolmg there, the voice of reasonable, tolerant civic nationalism. Not some pissed up numpty, spouting homophobic hate, no siree...
This scenario from Imperial, for a hypothetical LMIC "with substantial prior transmission and low vaccine access", says a country like South Africa will see 6,000 Omicron deaths *a day* (current 7-day average: 31)
Sorry, I'm not a maths-brain, but this can't possibly be right.
It's absurd. This is what they've been reduced to in order to push for more lockdowns. It's almost like they're addicted to having this power over everyone's lives and don't want to give it up.
Go on Boris, listen to them, try and go for restrictions. Please. It's time for the nation to be rid of you.
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
Quite right too, he was by far the best candidate at the time. He got the country out of the Brexit morass and saw off Corbyn with an 80 seat majority. Mission accomplished!
The problem is that voters don't (and shouldn't) do gratitude. That's done now, he's served his purpose, the question is who's best for the future and right now it seems hard to think that Boris is the answer.
Out of the morass? Bit early to claim that. UK split legally and economically as well as geographically, inward customs still not implemented, and so on. But it's Friday evening and dinner calls. Night all.
Yes we are out of the morass. We were in a mess with an agreement with a backstop that Parliament quite rightly wouldn't back, but nor would they back anything else. Article 50 just kept being extended and there were no viable alternatives.
Boris had a solution for that, Hunt and May didn't. So the members made the right choice.
Yes there may be issues going forwards, but that's the future's problem. That's not the same as the problems of the past. As I said, Boris dealt with the problems we had then, that's not the same thing as saying he'll be best for the problems of the future.
La La La La La
Why don't you regale us all with the one about how the UK Treasury will be paying an independent Scotland's pensions?
Away you cretin , losers always whine when found out , typical lying Tory. I said they would hav eto pay up as part of teh settlement and that would cover the pension payments Scots had made. Another snivelling little Tory jessie boy, GIRUY.
You haven't made any pension payments. Your generation never bothered saving anything for pensions, you instead accrued pension liabilities instead.
You really are thick, I am getting the state pension I contributed to for 50 years and I also have a shedload in personal pension and I don't pay NI. You on the other hand will hopefully get F all , your just desserts for being such a bellend.
Sorry but you're the thickie
You never contributed to the state pension, there is no state pension pot. There is no pile of cash marked "pension contributions" that you contributed towards that you're now drawing down or can be distributed to Scotland upon independence.
Pensions are a liability, not a saving or something you've contributed to. You've fallen for a lie if you thought it was something you had.
Yet I get sent my state pension every 4 weeks and get increases regularly, even got my winter fuel payment recently. You think they are paying me for nothing.
No, I think they are paying you bribes with our taxes in order to try and get your vote.
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
Quite right too, he was by far the best candidate at the time. He got the country out of the Brexit morass and saw off Corbyn with an 80 seat majority. Mission accomplished!
The problem is that voters don't (and shouldn't) do gratitude. That's done now, he's served his purpose, the question is who's best for the future and right now it seems hard to think that Boris is the answer.
Out of the morass? Bit early to claim that. UK split legally and economically as well as geographically, inward customs still not implemented, and so on. But it's Friday evening and dinner calls. Night all.
Yes we are out of the morass. We were in a mess with an agreement with a backstop that Parliament quite rightly wouldn't back, but nor would they back anything else. Article 50 just kept being extended and there were no viable alternatives.
Boris had a solution for that, Hunt and May didn't. So the members made the right choice.
Yes there may be issues going forwards, but that's the future's problem. That's not the same as the problems of the past. As I said, Boris dealt with the problems we had then, that's not the same thing as saying he'll be best for the problems of the future.
La La La La La
Why don't you regale us all with the one about how the UK Treasury will be paying an independent Scotland's pensions?
Away you cretin , losers always whine when found out , typical lying Tory. I said they would hav eto pay up as part of teh settlement and that would cover the pension payments Scots had made. Another snivelling little Tory jessie boy, GIRUY.
You haven't made any pension payments. Your generation never bothered saving anything for pensions, you instead accrued pension liabilities instead.
You really are thick, I am getting the state pension I contributed to for 50 years and I also have a shedload in personal pension and I don't pay NI. You on the other hand will hopefully get F all , your just desserts for being such a bellend.
Sorry but you're the thickie
You never contributed to the state pension, there is no state pension pot. There is no pile of cash marked "pension contributions" that you contributed towards that you're now drawing down or can be distributed to Scotland upon independence.
Pensions are a liability, not a saving or something you've contributed to. You've fallen for a lie if you thought it was something you had.
Yet I get sent my state pension every 4 weeks and get increases regularly, even got my winter fuel payment recently. You think they are paying me for nothing.
Be grateful. After independence you’ll just get a bag of oats every month.
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
Quite right too, he was by far the best candidate at the time. He got the country out of the Brexit morass and saw off Corbyn with an 80 seat majority. Mission accomplished!
The problem is that voters don't (and shouldn't) do gratitude. That's done now, he's served his purpose, the question is who's best for the future and right now it seems hard to think that Boris is the answer.
Out of the morass? Bit early to claim that. UK split legally and economically as well as geographically, inward customs still not implemented, and so on. But it's Friday evening and dinner calls. Night all.
Yes we are out of the morass. We were in a mess with an agreement with a backstop that Parliament quite rightly wouldn't back, but nor would they back anything else. Article 50 just kept being extended and there were no viable alternatives.
Boris had a solution for that, Hunt and May didn't. So the members made the right choice.
Yes there may be issues going forwards, but that's the future's problem. That's not the same as the problems of the past. As I said, Boris dealt with the problems we had then, that's not the same thing as saying he'll be best for the problems of the future.
La La La La La
Why don't you regale us all with the one about how the UK Treasury will be paying an independent Scotland's pensions?
Away you cretin , losers always whine when found out , typical lying Tory. I said they would hav eto pay up as part of teh settlement and that would cover the pension payments Scots had made. Another snivelling little Tory jessie boy, GIRUY.
Malcolmg there, the voice of reasonable, tolerant civic nationalism. Not some pissed up numpty, spouting homophobic hate, no siree...
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
Quite right too, he was by far the best candidate at the time. He got the country out of the Brexit morass and saw off Corbyn with an 80 seat majority. Mission accomplished!
The problem is that voters don't (and shouldn't) do gratitude. That's done now, he's served his purpose, the question is who's best for the future and right now it seems hard to think that Boris is the answer.
Out of the morass? Bit early to claim that. UK split legally and economically as well as geographically, inward customs still not implemented, and so on. But it's Friday evening and dinner calls. Night all.
Yes we are out of the morass. We were in a mess with an agreement with a backstop that Parliament quite rightly wouldn't back, but nor would they back anything else. Article 50 just kept being extended and there were no viable alternatives.
Boris had a solution for that, Hunt and May didn't. So the members made the right choice.
Yes there may be issues going forwards, but that's the future's problem. That's not the same as the problems of the past. As I said, Boris dealt with the problems we had then, that's not the same thing as saying he'll be best for the problems of the future.
La La La La La
Why don't you regale us all with the one about how the UK Treasury will be paying an independent Scotland's pensions?
Away you cretin , losers always whine when found out , typical lying Tory. I said they would hav eto pay up as part of teh settlement and that would cover the pension payments Scots had made. Another snivelling little Tory jessie boy, GIRUY.
You haven't made any pension payments. Your generation never bothered saving anything for pensions, you instead accrued pension liabilities instead.
You really are thick, I am getting the state pension I contributed to for 50 years and I also have a shedload in personal pension and I don't pay NI. You on the other hand will hopefully get F all , your just desserts for being such a bellend.
Sorry but you're the thickie
You never contributed to the state pension, there is no state pension pot. There is no pile of cash marked "pension contributions" that you contributed towards that you're now drawing down or can be distributed to Scotland upon independence.
Pensions are a liability, not a saving or something you've contributed to. You've fallen for a lie if you thought it was something you had.
Yet I get sent my state pension every 4 weeks and get increases regularly, even got my winter fuel payment recently. You think they are paying me for nothing.
No, I think they are paying you bribes with our taxes in order to try and get your vote.
No doubt Lord Geidt will now be summoned to give a clean bill of health to the illegal Xmas parties legal after-work gatherings.
The incompetence is beyond belief. Setting aside for a moment the absurdity of pretending such an investigation was going to be independent, how on earth could they not have spotted that Case himself was likely to be implicated in the stuff that he was investigating?
There's a fundamental lack of basic competence, let alone integrity, at the heart of government at the moment. If I were a Tory, I'd be very worried. Luckily, I'm not.
Good evening IIRC you wondered recently when I would suggest that the odds were other than about equal between the next GE giving us a Tory majority or a centre left Labour led alliance of some sort (then at about 45+% each, with the remainder being the small chance of a Labour government.)
The answer is Now. I was wrong in thinking that the Tories would scrape home yesterday at NS, and I think the result shifts the balance.
Recent events greatly increase the chance that Boris will not fight the next election. He is good at elections. There is no candidate to replace him obviously good at elections. There is a danger of an unelectable candidate, and no certainty of a good one. The centre left voters may be getting better at tactical voting making marginal gains. Labour are getting better at not giving hostages.
No doubt Lord Geidt will now be summoned to give a clean bill of health to the illegal Xmas parties legal after-work gatherings.
The incompetence is beyond belief. Setting aside for a moment the absurdity of pretending such an investigation was going to be independent, how on earth could they not have spotted that Case himself was likely to be implicated in the stuff that he was investigating?
There's a fundamental lack of basic competence, let alone integrity, at the heart of government at the moment. If I were a Tory, I'd be very worried. Luckily, I'm not.
Thick as mince despite having aquired supposed fancy degree's.
This scenario from Imperial, for a hypothetical LMIC "with substantial prior transmission and low vaccine access", says a country like South Africa will see 6,000 Omicron deaths *a day* (current 7-day average: 31)
Sorry, I'm not a maths-brain, but this can't possibly be right.
It's absurd. This is what they've been reduced to in order to push for more lockdowns. It's almost like they're addicted to having this power over everyone's lives and don't want to give it up.
Go on Boris, listen to them, try and go for restrictions. Please. It's time for the nation to be rid of you.
I think that's a bit OTT but I am struggling to understand it.
CFR in South Africa has gone through the floor. Now there could be a lag effect but there comes a point where you have to start believing it's a milder variant.
No doubt Lord Geidt will now be summoned to give a clean bill of health to the illegal Xmas parties legal after-work gatherings.
The incompetence is beyond belief. Setting aside for a moment the absurdity of pretending such an investigation was going to be independent, how on earth could they not have spotted that Case himself was likely to be implicated in the stuff that he was investigating?
There's a fundamental lack of basic competence, let alone integrity, at the heart of government at the moment. If I were a Tory, I'd be very worried. Luckily, I'm not.
Thick as mince despite having aquired supposed fancy degree's.
I do hope you're not referring to me? (Anyway, I can spell acquired).
Guardian: As the storm clouds gather, Conservative MPs are united in believing that if the government is to regain the public’s trust, Johnson will have to change his approach significantly – but divided about whether he is capable of doing so. “He has to take some drastic action. He needs to show tangible action to show he gets it,” said one frontbencher.
Johnson has few genuine friends in the parliamentary Conservative party, and his popularity with colleagues was always contingent on his campaigning prowess. Yet one fear his MPs now have is that the very qualities that once made Johnson a winner with the public – his roguishness and devil-may-care approach to politics and life in general – are precisely those that have become electorally toxic.
Paula Surridge, an elections expert at the University of Bristol, said: “My instinct is that he’s in real trouble now, because I think what you’re getting is a blend of the grief and anger and emotion of the last 18 months attaching itself to these endless stories of parties and rule-breaking, and I think that’s going to be a really dangerous combination and really difficult for both Boris Johnson and the Conservative party more generally to shake off.
But senior MPs are also sceptical about how much Johnson is likely to be able to sharpen up his act. “It’s not about ‘Downing Street’, it’s him,” one minister said. “We have the problems we have because either he’s caused them, or his whole approach means other people do things they really shouldn’t. So it will be down to what he chooses to do.”
I use Claudia Rosen's recipe. Diced veg, mince, bacon, red wine, stock, tomato puree, slow cooked. Stir in cream towards the end The most important thing is to serve with flat pasta, fettuccine or tagliatelle. Mince just doesn't stick to spaghetti. Matching pasta to the sauce is an important part of Italian cuisine we ignore.
This scenario from Imperial, for a hypothetical LMIC "with substantial prior transmission and low vaccine access", says a country like South Africa will see 6,000 Omicron deaths *a day* (current 7-day average: 31)
Sorry, I'm not a maths-brain, but this can't possibly be right.
It's absurd. This is what they've been reduced to in order to push for more lockdowns. It's almost like they're addicted to having this power over everyone's lives and don't want to give it up.
Go on Boris, listen to them, try and go for restrictions. Please. It's time for the nation to be rid of you.
Next Tory leader Mark Harper. You heard it here first.
Pecresse's honeymoon continues for now and it's fascinating to see Zemmour and Le Pen tied and both set to be eliminated in Round 1. On that basis, you'd think the numbers look solid for Pecresse in round 2 to eke out a narrow victory over Macron.
Let's not forget we also have the Slovenian election on April 24th - the current government headed by Janez Jansa's Slovenian Democratic Party is a minority but faces a hugely fragmented opposition grouping.
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
Quite right too, he was by far the best candidate at the time. He got the country out of the Brexit morass and saw off Corbyn with an 80 seat majority. Mission accomplished!
The problem is that voters don't (and shouldn't) do gratitude. That's done now, he's served his purpose, the question is who's best for the future and right now it seems hard to think that Boris is the answer.
Out of the morass? Bit early to claim that. UK split legally and economically as well as geographically, inward customs still not implemented, and so on. But it's Friday evening and dinner calls. Night all.
Yes we are out of the morass. We were in a mess with an agreement with a backstop that Parliament quite rightly wouldn't back, but nor would they back anything else. Article 50 just kept being extended and there were no viable alternatives.
Boris had a solution for that, Hunt and May didn't. So the members made the right choice.
Yes there may be issues going forwards, but that's the future's problem. That's not the same as the problems of the past. As I said, Boris dealt with the problems we had then, that's not the same thing as saying he'll be best for the problems of the future.
La La La La La
Why don't you regale us all with the one about how the UK Treasury will be paying an independent Scotland's pensions?
Away you cretin , losers always whine when found out , typical lying Tory. I said they would hav eto pay up as part of teh settlement and that would cover the pension payments Scots had made. Another snivelling little Tory jessie boy, GIRUY.
Malcolmg there, the voice of reasonable, tolerant civic nationalism. Not some pissed up numpty, spouting homophobic hate, no siree...
Back to your knitting
You still might want to retract the "Jessie boy" comment since even Alba, the pensioners version of the SNP, might consider it a bit out off message. Alternatively stay on the swally and share the joy of the millionaires playground of Cumbernauld.
I use Claudia Rosen's recipe. Diced veg, mince, bacon, red wine, stock, tomato puree, slow cooked. Stir in cream towards the end The most important thing is to serve with flat pasta, fettuccine or tagliatelle. Mince just doesn't stick to spaghetti. Matching pasta to the sauce is an important part of Italian cuisine we ignore.
We tend to add stuff to make it more "interesting". Peppers, garlic, herbs etc. Problem is an authentic pasta sauce isn't supposed to be particularly interesting..it should sauce the pasta nicely, but it is only a starter and should be followed by a meat or fish dish with veg or salad on the side. But I expect we will have Cyclefree on shortly with her favourite Sicilian pasta sauce.
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Because all politics is relative. In 2019 you voted for a government led by Boris or one led by Jezza.
And in 2019 no other way was available (except Labour unicorns) out of the Brexit mire.
Nah, Con Home is where Boris fever took hold and brought down the existing Tory government. They choose Boris over Cameron, May, Javid, Gove, Stewart and Hunt, not just over Corbyn.
Quite right too, he was by far the best candidate at the time. He got the country out of the Brexit morass and saw off Corbyn with an 80 seat majority. Mission accomplished!
The problem is that voters don't (and shouldn't) do gratitude. That's done now, he's served his purpose, the question is who's best for the future and right now it seems hard to think that Boris is the answer.
Out of the morass? Bit early to claim that. UK split legally and economically as well as geographically, inward customs still not implemented, and so on. But it's Friday evening and dinner calls. Night all.
Yes we are out of the morass. We were in a mess with an agreement with a backstop that Parliament quite rightly wouldn't back, but nor would they back anything else. Article 50 just kept being extended and there were no viable alternatives.
Boris had a solution for that, Hunt and May didn't. So the members made the right choice.
Yes there may be issues going forwards, but that's the future's problem. That's not the same as the problems of the past. As I said, Boris dealt with the problems we had then, that's not the same thing as saying he'll be best for the problems of the future.
La La La La La
Why don't you regale us all with the one about how the UK Treasury will be paying an independent Scotland's pensions?
Away you cretin , losers always whine when found out , typical lying Tory. I said they would hav eto pay up as part of teh settlement and that would cover the pension payments Scots had made. Another snivelling little Tory jessie boy, GIRUY.
You haven't made any pension payments. Your generation never bothered saving anything for pensions, you instead accrued pension liabilities instead.
You really are thick, I am getting the state pension I contributed to for 50 years and I also have a shedload in personal pension and I don't pay NI. You on the other hand will hopefully get F all , your just desserts for being such a bellend.
Sorry but you're the thickie
You never contributed to the state pension, there is no state pension pot. There is no pile of cash marked "pension contributions" that you contributed towards that you're now drawing down or can be distributed to Scotland upon independence.
Pensions are a liability, not a saving or something you've contributed to. You've fallen for a lie if you thought it was something you had.
Yet I get sent my state pension every 4 weeks and get increases regularly, even got my winter fuel payment recently. You think they are paying me for nothing.
No, I think they are paying you bribes with our taxes in order to try and get your vote.
Oh Dear, even for you that is crass.
The truth is crass.
Were you seriously so naïve as to think the winter fuel payment or the state pension was coming from a pot of money you'd contributed towards? I really think you're smarter than that, surely? 😂
Sunday 19th (Recording Saturday's jabs) will be the largest number of the entire pandemic I think. After that we run into the fact next weekend is christmas; then after that we hit New Year's slowdown & in January demand limitation slowing the pace.
It's absurd. This is what they've been reduced to in order to push for more lockdowns. It's almost like they're addicted to having this power over everyone's lives and don't want to give it up.
Go on Boris, listen to them, try and go for restrictions. Please. It's time for the nation to be rid of you.
Next Tory leader Mark Harper. You heard it here first.
66:1 by the way.
The killing blow will be the first polls which show a Conservative Party led by Sunak or Truss back in the lead over Labour - the divergence of culpability between the Party and the leader is the key.
If this were a 92-97 scenario, it would make no difference who was the leader - the people would have turned against the Conservative Party. If this is more a 90 scenario, the hostility would be solely at the door of the Prime Minister - the Party could wipe the slate clean with a new leader.
This scenario from Imperial, for a hypothetical LMIC "with substantial prior transmission and low vaccine access", says a country like South Africa will see 6,000 Omicron deaths *a day* (current 7-day average: 31)
Sorry, I'm not a maths-brain, but this can't possibly be right.
It's absurd. This is what they've been reduced to in order to push for more lockdowns. It's almost like they're addicted to having this power over everyone's lives and don't want to give it up.
Go on Boris, listen to them, try and go for restrictions. Please. It's time for the nation to be rid of you.
Next Tory leader Mark Harper. You heard it here first.
If it's not bolognese I want, please can I have a genuine recipe for the genuine thing it is, if possible
There's a lot here (the recipes are in English) including the Claudia Roden recipe I use. In practice, I replace the veg with Waitrose frozen soffrito. https://puma-blanca.livejournal.com/76643.html
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
We were supposed to be there tomorrow night, 7 out of 8 have got the big Omi. I wouldn't be surprised if close to 1 in 10 under 40s have got it right now.
Johnson's administration really does now have a fin de siecle feel to it. Decadence, decay, corruption.
Putrid to the very core.
It's had that since day 1
It has, but there are a couple of differences now.
One is that everyone hoped that, somehow, BoJo would do the "Prince Hal to King Henry" thing on attaining office. Or after winning a General Election. Or sometime. He hasn't, because he can't.
(The brutal reality is that he probably had to be given a go as PM, or he would have just kept making life hell for the occupants bof No 10.)
The other is that he's smirking at everyone who tried to keep the rules over the last couple of years.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
Why are you in the least surprised?
The only way hospitality would have survived is if Johnson had decided a positive Covid test didn't mean having to self-isolate.
As I've seen and heard first hand, nobody is "scared" of Omicron but people are terrified of not being able to spend Christmas with their loved ones and/or families. A positive test kills Christmas - if that means the pre-Christmas festivities have to be eschewed in order to keep covid-free, a lot of people are more than happy to pay that price.
That doesn't apply to everyone and for some the pre-Christmas festivities and socialising make up for what might actually be a lonely and quiet Christmas Day itself. For those people, gathering in pubs, restaurants and the like with friends and colleagues IS their Christmas.
The romanticised idyll of families round a big table with a huge lunch may work for many but it's far from a reality for all.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
I am pretty sure Witty has been pushing this when Plan B was announced. It was absolutely clear he wasn't on board with Plan B or Plan B++.
Any Italians on the site? Can you give me an authentic bolognese recipe?
I recall Elizabeth David's Ragù as being pretty good when I've been arsed to follow it. Can't lay my hands on her original book at the mo but this is a précis. I'm almost certain that the original specified white wine and had finely chopped beef & pork.
Trying to show there were illegal parties over xmas across Whitehall when the only reason you got the investigating job is because the original investigator had to resign because he held an illegal party in Whitehall.
Seems to me that we're in big trouble and the Imperial study is not good news at all, can somebody tell me what I'm missing?
A 93-95% reduction in severe symptoms is great news, it confirms that three dose efficacy is exactly what we were hoping for.
Oh wait, you mean the model, that's not a study it's a predictive model, it also predicted 4x as many cases as we got with Delta and 3x as many deaths post July unlockdown. It's worthless.
Bloody hell, Mark Steel has actually come out with a funny joke.
Chris Witty should announce sternly that it's now clear the number of people who despise Johnson is doubling every two days, and we have to accept it will have affected everyone by Christmas, especially anyone who's been in close contact with him.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
We were at Bournemouth yesterday to see Bill Bailey. The show was pretty much fully-booked out in advance (I checked beforehand, only a handful of odd seats available).
On the night, I'd say it was about 80% full, so not bad, but it looks like circa 20% had decided to take the hit, lose the ticket fee and not attend.
New FIA president Mohammed ben Sulayem has refused to rule out punishing Lewis Hamilton for boycotting its awards ceremony on Thursday.
Hamilton and Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff did not attend in protest at the handling of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix last Sunday.
Formula 1 rules dictate that the top three drivers in the championship must attend.
"If there is any breach, there is no forgiveness in this," Ben Sulayem said.
Asked to clarify whether he was saying Hamilton would be penalised for not attending the gala, he said: "Forgiveness is always there. But rules are rules.
If RULES WERE RULES Lewis would be crowned champion FFS
Hang on, I thought 5000 were dying a day? It’s so hard to keep up with the bullshit numbers...
So are they trying to say 2,000 will be dying each day before they get to hospital?!?
based on what we know already and what can be logically concluded, I would be willing to bet there will be less that 5,000 deaths Total from Omicron in the next 3 months. Don't know how we would know for certain which deaths are Omicron, but still that's my prediction, and depending on the odds I might go as far to say less than 5,000 Omicron deaths in the next 12 months.
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
Why are you in the least surprised?
The only way hospitality would have survived is if Johnson had decided a positive Covid test didn't mean having to self-isolate.
As I've seen and heard first hand, nobody is "scared" of Omicron but people are terrified of not being able to spend Christmas with their loved ones and/or families. A positive test kills Christmas - if that means the pre-Christmas festivities have to be eschewed in order to keep covid-free, a lot of people are more than happy to pay that price.
That doesn't apply to everyone and for some the pre-Christmas festivities and socialising make up for what might actually be a lonely and quiet Christmas Day itself. For those people, gathering in pubs, restaurants and the like with friends and colleagues IS their Christmas.
The romanticised idyll of families round a big table with a huge lunch may work for many but it's far from a reality for all.
I’m one of those this year. My family is fragmented by Covid in multiple ways. It’s gonna take 6 hours of driving to allow me to see one daughter in london and also at least one parent on the same day
Not fun. Not merry at all
I was looking forward to quite a few pre Xmas get togethers to boost my mood. Only a couple survived
Ah well. Haddaway and shite. At least I met god on ayahuasca
I really pity those who now have no Xmas at all, and thereafter are staring at another winter lockdown
This scenario from Imperial, for a hypothetical LMIC "with substantial prior transmission and low vaccine access", says a country like South Africa will see 6,000 Omicron deaths *a day* (current 7-day average: 31)
Sorry, I'm not a maths-brain, but this can't possibly be right.
It's absurd. This is what they've been reduced to in order to push for more lockdowns. It's almost like they're addicted to having this power over everyone's lives and don't want to give it up.
Go on Boris, listen to them, try and go for restrictions. Please. It's time for the nation to be rid of you.
Next Tory leader Mark Harper. You heard it here first.
66:1 by the way.
It's not Harper they need, it's Harpic, to get rid of the stench that Bozo has created.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Boris will never survive it. Quite simply the party would tell him and the scientists to get fucked. He loses the leadership, Mark Harper or another Tory MP says "fuck lockdown" and wins.
New FIA president Mohammed ben Sulayem has refused to rule out punishing Lewis Hamilton for boycotting its awards ceremony on Thursday.
Hamilton and Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff did not attend in protest at the handling of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix last Sunday.
Formula 1 rules dictate that the top three drivers in the championship must attend.
"If there is any breach, there is no forgiveness in this," Ben Sulayem said.
Asked to clarify whether he was saying Hamilton would be penalised for not attending the gala, he said: "Forgiveness is always there. But rules are rules.
If RULES WERE RULES Lewis would be crowned champion FFS
Might as well correct Abu Dhabi but then disqualify Lewis for this - would be much more satisfactory and they still get to fix it for their dutch pet.
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
Why are you in the least surprised?
The only way hospitality would have survived is if Johnson had decided a positive Covid test didn't mean having to self-isolate.
As I've seen and heard first hand, nobody is "scared" of Omicron but people are terrified of not being able to spend Christmas with their loved ones and/or families. A positive test kills Christmas - if that means the pre-Christmas festivities have to be eschewed in order to keep covid-free, a lot of people are more than happy to pay that price.
That doesn't apply to everyone and for some the pre-Christmas festivities and socialising make up for what might actually be a lonely and quiet Christmas Day itself. For those people, gathering in pubs, restaurants and the like with friends and colleagues IS their Christmas.
The romanticised idyll of families round a big table with a huge lunch may work for many but it's far from a reality for all.
I’m one of those this year. My family is fragmented by Covid in multiple ways. It’s gonna take 6 hours of driving to allow me to see one daughter in london and also at least one parent on the same day
Not fun. Not merry at all
I was looking forward to quite a few pre Xmas get togethers to boost my mood. Only a couple survived
Ah well. Haddaway and shite. At least I met god on ayahuasca
I really pity those who now have no Xmas at all, and thereafter are staring at another winter lockdown
I agree. My Kingston pub crawl is still on tomorrow (I checked) and I have heard nothing about Sunday's lunch social being cancelled. I don't do family Christmas so it is the pre-Christmas socialising that is important. And the last couple of events I went to I met people I hadn't seen for two years.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Boris will never survive it. Quite simply the party would tell him and the scientists to get fucked. He loses the leadership, Mark Harper or another Tory MP says "fuck lockdown" and wins.
Nah, Government of National Unity, lockdown passes with Labour votes and Boris Johnson is the new Ramsay MacDonald.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Boris will never survive it. Quite simply the party would tell him and the scientists to get fucked. He loses the leadership, Mark Harper or another Tory MP says "fuck lockdown" and wins.
Nah, Government of National Unity, lockdown passes with Labour votes and Boris Johnson is the new Ramsay MacDonald.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Boris will never survive it. Quite simply the party would tell him and the scientists to get fucked. He loses the leadership, Mark Harper or another Tory MP says "fuck lockdown" and wins.
Nah, Government of National Unity, lockdown passes with Labour votes and Boris Johnson is the new Ramsay MacDonald.
Lol, imagine if Keith kept Boris as PM.
It's the piece I'm doing for Boxing Day.
Not for the first time as PM, Boris Johnson is controlled by a dom.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc
It's also not the full findings of the study, this is the bit that's based on modelled antibody binding efficiency. The actual data (as in the real data from known cases of Omi, not modelled) shows 93-95% reduction in severe symptoms.
And yes, as other people have pointed out, it's an 85% reduction in likelihood of severe symptoms. If 1000 people get it, 1000 people get severe symptoms, three doses worth of antibodies turns that into 15.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc
No, it means you have a 5-fold lower chance of developing severe disease than someone unvaccinated. Who in turn has something like a 10% chance of developing severe disease if they catch it.
So a pretty tiny chance on an individual basis. Before, it seems, taking account of T-cell immunity.
And before allowing for any intrinsic mildness in the variant, if that exists.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc
It would be 1/6 of the chance of you getting a severe illness, sans booster. So pretty good.
Pecresse's honeymoon continues for now and it's fascinating to see Zemmour and Le Pen tied and both set to be eliminated in Round 1. On that basis, you'd think the numbers look solid for Pecresse in round 2 to eke out a narrow victory over Macron.
Let's not forget we also have the Slovenian election on April 24th - the current government headed by Janez Jansa's Slovenian Democratic Party is a minority but faces a hugely fragmented opposition grouping.
I love the cassic PBism "Let's not forget we also have the Slovenian election on April 24th."
I have £20 on Pecresse at 7, but £2 savers on Le Pen and Zemmour at 12-13. I sadly can't see the precise far-right split persisting, and if one gets through I suppose they'll shorten to 3 or so.
Politics Home: The Conservative party's stunning defeat in Leave-voting North Shropshire to the pro-Remain Lib Dems could be a sign they can no longer rely anti-EU sentiment to win votes, leading pollster Sir John Curtice has said.
Curtice said the North Shropshire result showed that how a constituency voted in 2016 would be much less of a factor in future elections, unlike in 2019 when Johnson's promise to deliver the UK's exit from the bloc was a highly effective in Leave-voting seats.
He explained that many Leave voters who supported the Conservatives for the first time at the 2019 general election did so largely because of Johnson's promise to "Get Brexit Done," but importantly do not have a deep loyalty to the Tory party. "If you take all polls since party-gate," Curtice said, referring to a string of scandals involving Christmas gatherings in Downing Street during lockdown, "the Conservative vote is down by 13% across the country compared with 2019, and down 20% among Leave voters".
No political ideology is going to defend you if the public begins to have doubts about your personal ethics," Curtice added.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc
FFS mate.....2 years and you are making this mistake...its always "effectiveness" i.e. reduction versus nothing.
"UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness."
These stats are so confusing. That sounds pretty bad. You have all three shots and you’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance of SEVERE illness? Presumably depending on age, co-morbidity etc
No
You have 1/6th of the chance of severe illness that you started with, which unless you're vulnerable was probably already very very small.
And these sorts of percentage declines are particularly unhelpful when it's impossible to find genuinely immune naive control groups, so the protection vs where we started 20 months ago is likely better than being claimed.
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
Except without the financial support... Most folk lockdown whatever the government says. And whatever pleas to rational argument. Cos they don't want to get sick.
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
Except without the financial support... Most folk lockdown whatever the government says. And whatever pleas to rational argument. Cos they don't want to get sick.
I remember seeing Manchester Piccadilly station in the early weeks of March 2020, before lockdown, and you could see it becoming less and less busy.
People don't need formal lockdowns to change their behaviour.
Some of the projections floating around on twitter imply that half the entire population will get Covid in January. Not sure what to make of that.
I reckon the 3rd Jan/27th Dec for lockdown.
Nah, will spread much quicker than that and be coming down by January. Looking at where London is and the Johannesburg experience, no way it's got 2 weeks continued rises to come. Rest of country apparently only 4 days behind.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Boris will never survive it. Quite simply the party would tell him and the scientists to get fucked. He loses the leadership, Mark Harper or another Tory MP says "fuck lockdown" and wins.
Nah, Government of National Unity, lockdown passes with Labour votes and Boris Johnson is the new Ramsay MacDonald.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Boris will never survive it. Quite simply the party would tell him and the scientists to get fucked. He loses the leadership, Mark Harper or another Tory MP says "fuck lockdown" and wins.
Nah, Government of National Unity, lockdown passes with Labour votes and Boris Johnson is the new Ramsay MacDonald.
Lol, imagine if Keith kept Boris as PM.
It's the piece I'm doing for Boxing Day.
Not for the first time as PM, Boris Johnson is controlled by a dom.
The Tories would be out of power for 50 years. I mean these predictions were made for Theresa May as well that she would lead a GONU to get her deal through.
No, if Boris pushes the lockdown option he's gone and an anti-lockdown person wins. It is inevitable.
New FIA president Mohammed ben Sulayem has refused to rule out punishing Lewis Hamilton for boycotting its awards ceremony on Thursday.
Hamilton and Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff did not attend in protest at the handling of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix last Sunday.
Formula 1 rules dictate that the top three drivers in the championship must attend.
"If there is any breach, there is no forgiveness in this," Ben Sulayem said.
Asked to clarify whether he was saying Hamilton would be penalised for not attending the gala, he said: "Forgiveness is always there. But rules are rules.
If RULES WERE RULES Lewis would be crowned champion FFS
Hope F1 fans are OK with so many races this season being held in what Freedom House terms Not Free countries. Let's see now:
Edinboro Castle. Huge popular boozer ten yards from my Camden flat. Massive heated beer garden
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
Except without the financial support... Most folk lockdown whatever the government says. And whatever pleas to rational argument. Cos they don't want to get sick.
I remember seeing Manchester Piccadilly station in the early weeks of March 2020, before lockdown, and you could see it becoming less and less busy.
People don't need formal lockdowns to change their behaviour.
I agree with Eagles. When is a circuit breaker can’t be called a circuit breaker.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
Boris will never survive it. Quite simply the party would tell him and the scientists to get fucked. He loses the leadership, Mark Harper or another Tory MP says "fuck lockdown" and wins.
Nah, Government of National Unity, lockdown passes with Labour votes and Boris Johnson is the new Ramsay MacDonald.
Lol, imagine if Keith kept Boris as PM.
It's the piece I'm doing for Boxing Day.
Not for the first time as PM, Boris Johnson is controlled by a dom.
The Tories would be out of power for 50 years. I mean these predictions were made for Theresa May as well that she would lead a GONU to get her deal through.
No, if Boris pushes the lockdown option he's gone and an anti-lockdown person wins. It is inevitable.
My only fear is whether sufficient number of MPs will get over the fear of 'playing politics in a crisis'. But I suppose it only takes 50 odd and he's had his 3 warnings now.
Comments
Go on Boris, listen to them, try and go for restrictions. Please. It's time for the nation to be rid of you.
https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1471928668628869127
illegal Xmas partieslegal after-work gatherings.The incompetence is beyond belief. Setting aside for a moment the absurdity of pretending such an investigation was going to be independent, how on earth could they not have spotted that Case himself was likely to be implicated in the stuff that he was investigating?
There's a fundamental lack of basic competence, let alone integrity, at the heart of government at the moment. If I were a Tory, I'd be very worried. Luckily, I'm not.
The answer is Now. I was wrong in thinking that the Tories would scrape home yesterday at NS, and I think the result shifts the balance.
Recent events greatly increase the chance that Boris will not fight the next election. He is good at elections. There is no candidate to replace him obviously good at elections. There is a danger of an unelectable candidate, and no certainty of a good one. The centre left voters may be getting better at tactical voting making marginal gains. Labour are getting better at not giving hostages.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/set
This is a good recipe, made it a few times. Google translate does a good enough job of you don't speak Italian.
I completely misread the signs throughout the campaign and count.
Well done @MikeSmithson @Pulpstar and others who made money. I’ll pay more attention to your posts in future!
CFR in South Africa has gone through the floor. Now there could be a lag effect but there comes a point where you have to start believing it's a milder variant.
Johnson has few genuine friends in the parliamentary Conservative party, and his popularity with colleagues was always contingent on his campaigning prowess. Yet one fear his MPs now have is that the very qualities that once made Johnson a winner with the public – his roguishness and devil-may-care approach to politics and life in general – are precisely those that have become electorally toxic.
Paula Surridge, an elections expert at the University of Bristol, said: “My instinct is that he’s in real trouble now, because I think what you’re getting is a blend of the grief and anger and emotion of the last 18 months attaching itself to these endless stories of parties and rule-breaking, and I think that’s going to be a really dangerous combination and really difficult for both Boris Johnson and the Conservative party more generally to shake off.
But senior MPs are also sceptical about how much Johnson is likely to be able to sharpen up his act. “It’s not about ‘Downing Street’, it’s him,” one minister said. “We have the problems we have because either he’s caused them, or his whole approach means other people do things they really shouldn’t. So it will be down to what he chooses to do.”
66:1 by the way.
Putrid to the very core.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1471932874261770248
https://twitter.com/jim_reed/status/1471915719117971456
Moving away from statistics and epidemiology to politics and polls for a moment (who'd have thunk it?).
An interesting poll from France this evening from Cluster 21:
Changes from equivalent candidate in 2017:
Macron (LREM): 22% (-2)
Pécresse (LR): 18% (-2)
Zemmour (REC): 15% (+15)
Le Pen (RN): 15% (-6)
Mélenchon (LFI): 13% (-7)
Pecresse's honeymoon continues for now and it's fascinating to see Zemmour and Le Pen tied and both set to be eliminated in Round 1. On that basis, you'd think the numbers look solid for Pecresse in round 2 to eke out a narrow victory over Macron.
Let's not forget we also have the Slovenian election on April 24th - the current government headed by Janez Jansa's Slovenian Democratic Party is a minority but faces a hugely fragmented opposition grouping.
Cabinet Secretary Simon Case often said to be more courtier than enforcer. Gray doesn’t pull punches, as many has have found to their cost.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1471933535787307021
Were you seriously so naïve as to think the winter fuel payment or the state pension was coming from a pot of money you'd contributed towards? I really think you're smarter than that, surely? 😂
https://www.accademiaitalianadellacucina.it/it/ricette/ricetta/ragù-classico-bolognese
If this were a 92-97 scenario, it would make no difference who was the leader - the people would have turned against the Conservative Party. If this is more a 90 scenario, the hostility would be solely at the door of the Prime Minister - the Party could wipe the slate clean with a new leader.
Three weeks ago, packed at weekends. Tonight, Friday night, seven days from Christmas, maybe 10% full. Barely a dozen drinkers
We in de facto lockdown anyway. Hospitality is being slaughtered
If you have any other authentic pasta recipes I should try, would love to hear them
There will be no pubs left by March if he doesn't do something like NOW.
https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1471906124039397379?s=21
One is that everyone hoped that, somehow, BoJo would do the "Prince Hal to King Henry" thing on attaining office. Or after winning a General Election. Or sometime. He hasn't, because he can't.
(The brutal reality is that he probably had to be given a go as PM, or he would have just kept making life hell for the occupants bof No 10.)
The other is that he's smirking at everyone who tried to keep the rules over the last couple of years.
Heaven knows what happens next.
‘My note that 'after step 2' would mean closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households inside. Whereas 'after step 1' would add no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing non-essential retail]. 6/10’
They want this BEFORE Jan 1. It’s actually worse than I predicted
And there’s a tiny hint this could last ‘for months’
The only way hospitality would have survived is if Johnson had decided a positive Covid test didn't mean having to self-isolate.
As I've seen and heard first hand, nobody is "scared" of Omicron but people are terrified of not being able to spend Christmas with their loved ones and/or families. A positive test kills Christmas - if that means the pre-Christmas festivities have to be eschewed in order to keep covid-free, a lot of people are more than happy to pay that price.
That doesn't apply to everyone and for some the pre-Christmas festivities and socialising make up for what might actually be a lonely and quiet Christmas Day itself. For those people, gathering in pubs, restaurants and the like with friends and colleagues IS their Christmas.
The romanticised idyll of families round a big table with a huge lunch may work for many but it's far from a reality for all.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-3715033/Elizabeth-David-s-irresistible-Italian-Tagliatelle-alla-bolognese.html
Trying to show there were illegal parties over xmas across Whitehall when the only reason you got the investigating job is because the original investigator had to resign because he held an illegal party in Whitehall.
I reckon she might be done in, say, a day.
Oh wait, you mean the model, that's not a study it's a predictive model, it also predicted 4x as many cases as we got with Delta and 3x as many deaths post July unlockdown. It's worthless.
Chris Witty should announce sternly that it's now clear the number of people who despise Johnson is doubling every two days, and we have to accept it will have affected everyone by Christmas, especially anyone who's been in close contact with him.
https://twitter.com/mrmarksteel/status/1471791236306636801
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59696499
On the night, I'd say it was about 80% full, so not bad, but it looks like circa 20% had decided to take the hit, lose the ticket fee and not attend.
98% wearing a mask I'd say.
Hamilton and Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff did not attend in protest at the handling of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix last Sunday.
Formula 1 rules dictate that the top three drivers in the championship must attend.
"If there is any breach, there is no forgiveness in this," Ben Sulayem said.
Asked to clarify whether he was saying Hamilton would be penalised for not attending the gala, he said: "Forgiveness is always there. But rules are rules.
If RULES WERE RULES Lewis would be crowned champion FFS
based on what we know already and what can be logically concluded, I would be willing to bet there will be less that 5,000 deaths Total from Omicron in the next 3 months. Don't know how we would know for certain which deaths are Omicron, but still that's my prediction, and depending on the odds I might go as far to say less than 5,000 Omicron deaths in the next 12 months.
Not fun. Not merry at all
I was looking forward to quite a few pre Xmas get togethers to boost my mood. Only a couple survived
Ah well. Haddaway and shite. At least I met god on ayahuasca
I really pity those who now have no Xmas at all, and thereafter are staring at another winter lockdown
Highest Boosters to date: 861,306 (today)
Nearest estimate: @carnyx (854,217)
Next nearest: @Richard_Nabavi (896,322)
Eliminated entries:
@Endillion 525,600
@MightyAlex 700,000
@Cyclefree 723,527
@Eabhal 825,000
Boris on Monday cancels Christmas
Not for the first time as PM, Boris Johnson is controlled by a dom.
And yes, as other people have pointed out, it's an 85% reduction in likelihood of severe symptoms. If 1000 people get it, 1000 people get severe symptoms, three doses worth of antibodies turns that into 15.
So a pretty tiny chance on an individual basis. Before, it seems, taking account of T-cell immunity.
And before allowing for any intrinsic mildness in the variant, if that exists.
I have £20 on Pecresse at 7, but £2 savers on Le Pen and Zemmour at 12-13. I sadly can't see the precise far-right split persisting, and if one gets through I suppose they'll shorten to 3 or so.
Curtice said the North Shropshire result showed that how a constituency voted in 2016 would be much less of a factor in future elections, unlike in 2019 when Johnson's promise to deliver the UK's exit from the bloc was a highly effective in Leave-voting seats.
He explained that many Leave voters who supported the Conservatives for the first time at the 2019 general election did so largely because of Johnson's promise to "Get Brexit Done," but importantly do not have a deep loyalty to the Tory party. "If you take all polls since party-gate," Curtice said, referring to a string of scandals involving Christmas gatherings in Downing Street during lockdown, "the Conservative vote is down by 13% across the country compared with 2019, and down 20% among Leave voters".
No political ideology is going to defend you if the public begins to have doubts about your personal ethics," Curtice added.
You have 1/6th of the chance of severe illness that you started with, which unless you're vulnerable was probably already very very small.
And these sorts of percentage declines are particularly unhelpful when it's impossible to find genuinely immune naive control groups, so the protection vs where we started 20 months ago is likely better than being claimed.
Most folk lockdown whatever the government says. And whatever pleas to rational argument. Cos they don't want to get sick.
Covid: Addenbrooke's boss says 80% of virus patients are unvaccinated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59699891
I reckon the 3rd Jan/27th Dec for lockdown.
Which is the highest yet of the pandemic!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/new-york-state-breaks-daily-covid-cases-record-reports-over-20-000-cases
People don't need formal lockdowns to change their behaviour.
No, if Boris pushes the lockdown option he's gone and an anti-lockdown person wins. It is inevitable.
Bahrain - Not Free
Azerbaijan - Not Free
Russia - Not Free
Turkey - Not Free
Qatar - Not Free
Saudi - Not Free
Abu Dhabi - Not Free