Surprised the cases aren't higher, maybe hitting testing ceiling or people keeping LTFs to themselves. Deaths and national hiospital figures good. London up again, but admissions number still looks to be tracking delta trend there rather than shooting vertically up yet.
My guess is there will be an upper bound the number, obviously because of capacity, but also just people not bothering to do tests (either laziness or deliberately as they don't want to chance they are positive).
"Reported UK figures for vaccinations will not include an update for England in today's release. We are aiming to add figures for England later today. The current estimate is 7pm."
Excel clearly couldn't handle the large numbers.
Earlier on this year I think @Alistair jokingly predicted 200,000 cases a day.
He might be right after all.
Francis joked at the 200k level I believe.
Then that one person who didn't realise you were joking is going to need to offer your a profound apology.
I have seen this argument already among anti-vaxxers...
They are the same sort of morons who oppose seat belts because they once read a story of someone trapped in a burning car by their seat belt. It's a waste of time trying to explain because inevitably they will trot out the moron trump card "can you prove it is completely safe?"
The message from Tories this morning has been v different. The PM seems to say the problem is people & the media not focusing on the gov's priorities, one senior Tory said that unless Boris's 'tide of taint' is stopped there is no way they can make progress on other priorities. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471818806347673600
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman · 12m EXCL: Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"
Raises serious questions about his investigation into No 10 parties
My guess is there will be an upper bound the number, obviously because of capacity, but also just people not bothering to do tests (either laziness or deliberately as they don't want to chance they are positive).
Or just doing the test and taking what action they deem necessary but not dobbing themselves in for government monitoring.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Ruth Davidson is making a big mistake appearing as apologist for Boris Johnson. It's pretty well known what happens if you hitch your wagon to an incontinent horse. She had a reasonable future once
I didn’t hear the interview that way. Listen to what she said, she was actually scathing about the risible leadership he has inflicted on our country.
She was absolutely superb, and coruscating on Boris without going outside the bounds of what a politician can say about a leader of his or her own party. What a pity that she didn't end up as Conservative Party leader and PM. (Yes, I know all the reasons why that wasn't likely, but still.)
Possibly the best lay ever when she was betting favourite for next Con leader.
The Ruth Davidson project was an empty bad of vacuous nothing supported by kids gloves treatment by her former BBC and media colleagues.
I must say that she has reminded me increasingly of Mr Johnson in other respects - her single policy programme (No Surrender to Indyref 2, spoken with a frequency and relevance which would have embarrassed M. Porcius Cato the Censor), her remodelling the Scons in her own image, and her playing the fool to photographers to try and gain power.
Frankly, rubbish. She did an amazing job revitalising the Scottish Tories but was knocked off course by Boris and Brexit. A very talented politician who has had the sense, and self-knowledge not to hang around too long, which is a rare attribute for a pol.
She's still around. She's in parliament for life. That's the exact opposite of not hanging around.
It also seems, erm, unusual, that knowing that there was a 'Christmas Party' invite during lockdown the night before 18th Dec, for his team, it seemed right thing for him to do the inquiry in the first place https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1471875612600160263
The message from Tories this morning has been v different. The PM seems to say the problem is people & the media not focusing on the gov's priorities, one senior Tory said that unless Boris's 'tide of taint' is stopped there is no way they can make progress on other priorities. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471818806347673600
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
The sheer shamblaciousness of this government is an absolute delight, or at least would be if they weren't in government. They may have exceeded their already world-beating record of shamblaciousness if they've appointed a civil servant who had held an allegedly illegal Xmas party to run their investigation into an allegedly illegal Xmas party. Bravo!
Come to think of it, Boris does look like Harpo Marx with a case of serious weight gain.
Have we discussed the possibility that the result in North Salop was entirely down to Owen Paterson's personal vote not transferring over?
Perhaps the voters of North Salop thought Boris Johnson and the wider Tory party treated O-Patz very shabbily ?
The thing that I don't understand is that OP seemed to me to be an old school Tory type who valued integrity and service. He evidently genuinely thought that he had done no wrong.
I have looked briefly at what he did and it does seem as though he did act wrongly.
But he and perhaps many of his constituents thought otherwise.
Maybe he was just playing the part of an old skool Tory; got caught with his fingers in the cookie jar; saw his reputation, earning potential, and future peerage slipping away; and decided to try to deny, deny, deny, and brazen it out.
I think that's the reality of it, unfortunately - a mild mannered but fundamentally unpleasant little man who got his just desserts.
I found his dragging his late wife into it particularly distasteful. The complaint was that the investigation took a toll on her, which seems plausible, and is terribly sad, although we don't really know the situation. But the investigation was entirely due to him very clearly breaking the rules, and its protracted nature was due to his strategy of fighting it every step of the way with no credible grounds whatsoever.
EXCL: Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"
Raises serious questions about his investigation into No 10 parties
The sheer shamblaciousness of this government is an absolute delight, or at least would be if they weren't in government. They may have exceeded their already world-beating record of shamblaciousness if they've appointed a civil servant who had held an allegedly illegal Xmas party to run their investigation into an allegedly illegal Xmas party. Bravo!
Come to think of it, Boris does look like Harpo Marx with a case of serious weight gain.
Ruth Davidson is making a big mistake appearing as apologist for Boris Johnson. It's pretty well known what happens if you hitch your wagon to an incontinent horse. She had a reasonable future once
I didn’t hear the interview that way. Listen to what she said, she was actually scathing about the risible leadership he has inflicted on our country.
She was absolutely superb, and coruscating on Boris without going outside the bounds of what a politician can say about a leader of his or her own party. What a pity that she didn't end up as Conservative Party leader and PM. (Yes, I know all the reasons why that wasn't likely, but still.)
Possibly the best lay ever when she was betting favourite for next Con leader.
The Ruth Davidson project was an empty bad of vacuous nothing supported by kids gloves treatment by her former BBC and media colleagues.
I must say that she has reminded me increasingly of Mr Johnson in other respects - her single policy programme (No Surrender to Indyref 2, spoken with a frequency and relevance which would have embarrassed M. Porcius Cato the Censor), her remodelling the Scons in her own image, and her playing the fool to photographers to try and gain power.
Frankly, rubbish. She did an amazing job revitalising the Scottish Tories but was knocked off course by Boris and Brexit. A very talented politician who has had the sense, and self-knowledge not to hang around too long, which is a rare attribute for a pol.
She's still around. She's in parliament for life. That's the exact opposite of not hanging around.
Only not elected. Indeed, not proceeding to fight her constituency and get elected.
EXCL: Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"
Raises serious questions about his investigation into No 10 parties
Have we discussed the possibility that the result in North Salop was entirely down to Owen Paterson's personal vote not transferring over?
Perhaps the voters of North Salop thought Boris Johnson and the wider Tory party treated O-Patz very shabbily ?
The thing that I don't understand is that OP seemed to me to be an old school Tory type who valued integrity and service. He evidently genuinely thought that he had done no wrong.
I have looked briefly at what he did and it does seem as though he did act wrongly.
But he and perhaps many of his constituents thought otherwise.
Maybe he was just playing the part of an old skool Tory; got caught with his fingers in the cookie jar; saw his reputation, earning potential, and future peerage slipping away; and decided to try to deny, deny, deny, and brazen it out.
I think that's the reality of it, unfortunately - a mild mannered but fundamentally unpleasant little man who got his just desserts.
I found his dragging his late wife into it particularly distasteful. The complaint was that the investigation took a toll on her, which seems plausible, and is terribly sad, although we don't really know the situation. But the investigation was entirely due to him very clearly breaking the rules, and its protracted nature was due to his strategy of fighting it every step of the way with no credible grounds whatsoever.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
"Reported UK figures for vaccinations will not include an update for England in today's release. We are aiming to add figures for England later today. The current estimate is 7pm."
Excel clearly couldn't handle the large numbers.
Earlier on this year I think @Alistair jokingly predicted 200,000 cases a day.
He might be right after all.
Francis joked at the 200k level I believe.
Then that one person who didn't realise you were joking is going to need to offer your a profound apology.
There were also daily death totals that are thankfully wayyyyyyy off.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
Either the South African doctors or the UK medical establishment are wrong
Not necessarily. Different populations.
Im amazed at the idea that SA has a better prepared population for Omicron
They have:
mass malnutrition and obesity, and by malnutrition I mean that over 35% of their under 5s have stunted growth. 13% of the population live with HIV Rabies and TB are endemic Millions of people live in shanty towns with limited hygiene Far less vaccination and booster doses than the UK Average life span 64 years
Yes in their demographic profile they are younger but they are ao disadvantaged in so many ways to the people in the UK
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
Thank God that Mark Drakeford is bringing back the ‘one way system’ in Welsh shops and supermarkets
That’s surely a gamechanger. No way OMICRON - which is 70 times quicker at spreading than Delta - will be able to get past that mighty wall of Welsh logic. Ok yes, 1 infected person in a room with 100 people can infect half of them in about 6 minutes BUT NOT IF THEY ARE WALKING SLOWLY, STARING DOWN AT ARROWS ON A FLOOR, BUMPING INTO EACH OTHER
There must come a time when Drakeford - THE DRAKE - will rightly be summoned to head a government of national unity and hand-washing protocols
Have we discussed the possibility that the result in North Salop was entirely down to Owen Paterson's personal vote not transferring over?
Perhaps the voters of North Salop thought Boris Johnson and the wider Tory party treated O-Patz very shabbily ?
In all fairness to the Conservative Party, had Owen Paterson bent over and taken his spanking like a Conservative MP, quite a number of Johnson's travails would never have been noted, and Paterson would still be an MP.
I have seen this argument already among anti-vaxxers...
They are the same sort of morons who oppose seat belts because they once read a story of someone trapped in a burning car by their seat belt. It's a waste of time trying to explain because inevitably they will trot out the moron trump card "can you prove it is completely safe?"
One antivaxxer friend told me (before the pandemic) that he didn't believe in his toddler using a car seat because "I never wore a seat belt when I was a child, and I never got injured"
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
Also VERY smart and totally not going to get noticed by Nato members that the Kremlin suggested a ban on NEW nuclear missile deployments in border areas... which is handy given Russia's are already nice and snugly deployed
Thank God that Mark Drakeford is bringing back the ‘one way system’ in Welsh shops and supermarkets
That’s surely a gamechanger. No way OMICRON - which is 70 times quicker at spreading than Delta - will be able to get past that mighty wall of Welsh logic. Ok yes, 1 infected person in a room with 100 people can infect half of them in about 6 minutes BUT NOT IF THEY ARE WALKING SLOWLY, STARING DOWN AT ARROWS ON A FLOOR, BUMPING INTO EACH OTHER
There must come a time when Drakeford - THE DRAKE - will rightly be summoned to head a government of national unity and hand-washing protocols
The message from Tories this morning has been v different. The PM seems to say the problem is people & the media not focusing on the gov's priorities, one senior Tory said that unless Boris's 'tide of taint' is stopped there is no way they can make progress on other priorities. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471818806347673600
Reminds me of the time someone sent me an email work and used ‘perineal’ instead of ‘perennial’.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
I have seen this argument already among anti-vaxxers...
They are the same sort of morons who oppose seat belts because they once read a story of someone trapped in a burning car by their seat belt. It's a waste of time trying to explain because inevitably they will trot out the moron trump card "can you prove it is completely safe?"
One antivaxxer friend told me (before the pandemic) that he didn't believe in his toddler using a car seat because "I never wore a seat belt when I was a child, and I never got injured"
My grandfather spent a couple of months as an Infantry private on the Somme in 1916 and didn't get hurt, therefore it was quite safe...
Also VERY smart and totally not going to get noticed by Nato members that the Kremlin suggested a ban on NEW nuclear missile deployments in border areas... which is handy given Russia's are already nice and snugly deployed
Predictions for the first post-NS opinion poll? I am going for:
Lab 42% Con 31% Lib 12% Green 5% REF 3% SNP 5% Other 2%
Though obviously depends which polling company.
Lab 0% Con 0% Lib 99% Green 1% REF 0% SNP 0% Other 0%
That's what the bar chart will show.
No, you're missing the psychology that the bar chart lures you to moving from the smaller to the larger column to make the big story come true. There's none of that if the big bar is already at 99% - there are enough contrarians who would look at the little Green bar and think "why not vote for them?"
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
I like the strong emphasis on the fact he was present but did not answer quiz questions.
Is this the new "I did not inhale"?
I think it must be because of paragraph 17(b) subsection (iii) of the Regulations, which states that "No offence under these Regulations shall arise if the person or persons taking part or deemed to be taking part in the Gathering (pursuant to paragraph 11) did not take part in any Quiz associated with the Gathering.".
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
Thank God that Mark Drakeford is bringing back the ‘one way system’ in Welsh shops and supermarkets
That’s surely a gamechanger. No way OMICRON - which is 70 times quicker at spreading than Delta - will be able to get past that mighty wall of Welsh logic. Ok yes, 1 infected person in a room with 100 people can infect half of them in about 6 minutes BUT NOT IF THEY ARE WALKING SLOWLY, STARING DOWN AT ARROWS ON A FLOOR, BUMPING INTO EACH OTHER
There must come a time when Drakeford - THE DRAKE - will rightly be summoned to head a government of national unity and hand-washing protocols
Oven gloves sales banned again...
I don't get why anyone is bringing back the rules that were devised for Wuhan coronavirus when people were mainly concerned about droplets spreading it. Surely at the very least such rules need to be examined again?
It also seems, erm, unusual, that knowing that there was a 'Christmas Party' invite during lockdown the night before 18th Dec, for his team, it seemed right thing for him to do the inquiry in the first place https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1471875612600160263
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
⚠️BREAKING—Imperial College study finds #Omicron could be **just as severe** as the Delta strain, according to early findings from researchers at Imperial College London.
➡️All those who said “it’s mild” need to think about how many they have endangered. ft.com/content/489316…
So the South African reports about Omicron that make the disease look "milder" are because of things like the previous variants having already killed vulnerable people in earlier waves, those cases which are reinfections having some immunity now, and that there is now a part of the population there that has been vaccinated since those earlier waves.
So it's not a case of the disease being any milder, but that the environment and circumstances in which virus is operating have changed the outcomes compared to what would happen in an earlier wave.
Which means you really, really do not want an unvaccinated or poorly vaccinated population being hit by Omicron as your first significant wave of infection.
No.
you do not have to compare this surge in SA with previous Peaks, you can compare the rates of cases to hospitalisations now to the same ratio a month ago. same population, same place, only a small change in weather or vaccination levels compared to a month ago, the ratio have moved dramatically, with many less hospitalisation for every 100 cases. and we are now seeing a big share of covid in hospitals being incidental cases of no symptom's but identified while in for other reasons, a month ago this was a trivial proportion of the corvid hospitalisations.
We have a milder version of covid starting to hit now, AND in a much more protected population.
The big difference you seem to be forgetting is that Omicron is infecting a lot more people who were previously infected and/or vaccinated. It may or may not be significantly milder for people with no immunity.
Yes, I think this needs to be drilled home by all governments, Omicron may be milder (probably is) for people who have had a previous infection or three vaccine doses but for people who have no immunity it may end up being a disaster because of how rapidly it spreads. There seems to be a new antivaxxer meme going around that Omicron means that they are right and didn't need to get the vaccine because Omicron proves the virus became less deadly naturally.
A guy I met in the Balearics this week is a smart, rich anti-vaxxer. He knows someone that ‘died’ of the jab, hence his abhorrence. I’ve no idea if that’s true
The news that vaccines ‘don’t really work against Omicron’ has only confirmed his belief system
I think you'll find a very large number of anti-vaxxers 'know' someone that die from the jab. He can't be particularly smart if that is part of his belief system. Successful, perhaps.
I'm surprised to find antivaxxers I know who tell me they personally know multiple people who have died, or had to have their foot amputated or whatever, as a result of the jab. I tell them I find it hard to square with my wife's experience as an emergency department doctor, where not a single person has been admitted to her hospital because of the vaccination. Of course quite a few have died of covid. And a hell of a lot more people have been vaccinated around here, than have had covid. And she is the one who often has to look into someone's eyes and say "sorry, your brother/wife/father didn't make it". Sure, it's part of the job. But when it is often (as she sees it) very easily preventable, it's worse.
She has zero tolerance left for anti-vaxxers. And the mood generally has become much more hostile recently- measures making life hard for the unvaccinated seem to be really popular.
So if you've appointed someone to investigate some wrongdoing and then it becomes clear that they're implicated in the wrongdoing too... how exactly do you replace them without at the same time admitting that the thing they're investigating definitely definitely happened?
Nicola Sturgeon using her TV briefing platform to launch an unwarranted & rude verbal attack on @Mike_Blackley. Should the first minister really be attacking journalists who dare to ask polite & reasonable questions?
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman · 12m EXCL: Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"
Raises serious questions about his investigation into No 10 parties
It makes you wonder what absolute morons work in government to not even think well if we are going to have a bit of a doo against the rules, we probably shouldn't write in the calendar "BIG ILLEGAL RULE BREAKING CHRISTMAS PISS UP", at least call it "PRE-CHRISTMAS STRATEGY MEETING".
They are surely just left with the rules dont apply at Downing St excuse?
We ask again. When are the police going to investigate the media's seeming now damning evidence that illegal parties were being held in Whitehall last xmas.
Several/many members of public were fined £10k for this breech.
Thank God that Mark Drakeford is bringing back the ‘one way system’ in Welsh shops and supermarkets
That’s surely a gamechanger. No way OMICRON - which is 70 times quicker at spreading than Delta - will be able to get past that mighty wall of Welsh logic. Ok yes, 1 infected person in a room with 100 people can infect half of them in about 6 minutes BUT NOT IF THEY ARE WALKING SLOWLY, STARING DOWN AT ARROWS ON A FLOOR, BUMPING INTO EACH OTHER
There must come a time when Drakeford - THE DRAKE - will rightly be summoned to head a government of national unity and hand-washing protocols
Oven gloves sales banned again...
I don't get why anyone is bringing back the rules that were devised for Wuhan coronavirus when people were mainly concerned about droplets spreading it. Surely at the very least such rules need to be examined again?
The one way system is particularly absurd as it is not only pointless, but causes queues and confusion, so makes life more wearisome AND probably more dangerous
At some point you have to wonder if we are governed by literal morons. Like, you could get a pigeon to randomly peck at a computer keyboard, with each peck producing a different government policy, and you’d get BETTER governance than we have now, with elected humans making ‘rational decisions’
So if you've appointed someone to investigate some wrongdoing and then it becomes clear that they're implicated in the wrongdoing too... how exactly do you replace them without at the same time admitting that the thing they're investigating definitely definitely happened?
I don't think replacing him would be an admission of such.
Predictions for the first post-NS opinion poll? I am going for:
Lab 42% Con 31% Lib 12% Green 5% REF 3% SNP 5% Other 2%
Though obviously depends which polling company.
I think you're overestimating the impact, sadly. The LibDems should pick up a bit from all the others, but probably not sustain it post-NY. First poll guess: Lab 39 Con 33 LD 13 Gr 4 Ref 3 SNP 4 Oth 4
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Hmmm... The Case party began at 17:30. A party after work, going on into the evening, would seem like a breach of the COVID regulations, even if it's the same people who have been in an office together all day.
It also seems, erm, unusual, that knowing that there was a 'Christmas Party' invite during lockdown the night before 18th Dec, for his team, it seemed right thing for him to do the inquiry in the first place https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1471875612600160263
Not acceptable for Bercow reasons.
The defendant does not get to be the judge.
Lucky for Johnson this new twist didn't break on Wednesday night.
Their chap from Birmingham running for NShrop would have lost his deposit.
Nicola Sturgeon using her TV briefing platform to launch an unwarranted & rude verbal attack on @Mike_Blackley. Should the first minister really be attacking journalists who dare to ask polite & reasonable questions?
So if you've appointed someone to investigate some wrongdoing and then it becomes clear that they're implicated in the wrongdoing too... how exactly do you replace them without at the same time admitting that the thing they're investigating definitely definitely happened?
I don't think replacing him would be an admission of such.
It was a question. How do you do it and explain why you've done it and without admitting it?
So if you've appointed someone to investigate some wrongdoing and then it becomes clear that they're implicated in the wrongdoing too... how exactly do you replace them without at the same time admitting that the thing they're investigating definitely definitely happened?
I don't think replacing him would be an admission of such.
It was a question. How do you do it without admitting it?
"Relevant allegations have been made against him, so it would not be appropriate for him to continue investigating the issue".
Have we discussed the possibility that the result in North Salop was entirely down to Owen Paterson's personal vote not transferring over?
Perhaps the voters of North Salop thought Boris Johnson and the wider Tory party treated O-Patz very shabbily ?
In all fairness to the Conservative Party, had Owen Paterson bent over and taken his spanking like a Conservative MP, quite a number of Johnson's travails would never have been noted, and Paterson would still be an MP.
No sympathy for the conceited old fool from me.
His spanking would have triggered a recall petition. There have been 3 recall petitions to date. The threshold required was reached easily in two of them. The third, Ian Paisley Jnr. in North Antrim, was only 0.6% off. It seems likely that Paterson would have lost a recall petition, particularly with Partygate motivating people. So, Paterson would still be an MP, but he'd be facing a by-election soon.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman · 12m EXCL: Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"
Raises serious questions about his investigation into No 10 parties
It makes you wonder what absolute morons work in government to not even think well if we are going to have a bit of a doo against the rules, we probably shouldn't write in the calendar "BIG ILLEGAL RULE BREAKING CHRISTMAS PISS UP", at least call it "PRE-CHRISTMAS STRATEGY MEETING".
They are surely just left with the rules dont apply at Downing St excuse?
We ask again. When are the police going to investigate the media's seeming now damning evidence that illegal parties were being held in Whitehall last xmas.
Several/many members of public were fined £10k for this breech.
I am boiling with anger again.
The police dont investigate the Eton set. No idea why you think they might?
Confirmed Omicron shift locations (5 days of consistently increasing R rate comparing single day with same day last week, over 100% increase by last day).
(Harder to confirm for smaller areas as data less consistent, but to note I've tried a small selection of inner and outer London boroughs individually and they all meet the test). No Central belt or bordering London districts yet confirmed as meeting the test and no other full regions.
So if you've appointed someone to investigate some wrongdoing and then it becomes clear that they're implicated in the wrongdoing too... how exactly do you replace them without at the same time admitting that the thing they're investigating definitely definitely happened?
No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered.
Titter, they are much better at political satire than being an airline
I think this site, and the country, have got Boris fatigue. NS was the most extraordinary upset of the century, and within hours of it happening PBers were having an animated conv as to whether being born in August harms one's life chances, or something.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Sympathy, but none of this gets past elementary and well known tests for behaviour at the top of government, and for those working with them and accountable to them.
Such as: how does this look on the front page of the Daily Mail when placed in the worst possible light
is there any chance of being found out
does it look like one rule for them, another rule for us.
Epic fail on each.
As was the NS by election which should never happen if MPs and government avoided unforced errors.
Unforced errors are worth a closer look. arguably they have demolished:
Thatcher - poll tax
Major - ERM
Blair - Iraq
Brown - the world's greatest expert on banking and finance fails to anticipate total failure of banking and finance
Cameron - the hopeless EU renegotiation and Remain campaign
"Nearly a third of London fire engines out of action due to Covid
Rising Covid cases have left London's fire and rescue service with "unprecedented" staff shortages, the Fire Brigades Union says.
According to London Fire Brigade statistics 40 fire engines, out of a total of 142, were unavailable on both the day and night shift on Thursday - a level also reached for at least parts of the 10, 11 and 15 December."
"Nearly a third of London fire engines out of action due to Covid
Rising Covid cases have left London's fire and rescue service with "unprecedented" staff shortages, the Fire Brigades Union says.
According to London Fire Brigade statistics 40 fire engines, out of a total of 142, were unavailable on both the day and night shift on Thursday - a level also reached for at least parts of the 10, 11 and 15 December."
This Simon Case thing was so inevitable, and again so self-inflicted.
The whole investigation is into whether people working for the Government in and around Downing Street around Christmas last year had "parties", what these did or did not involve, and who authorised them.
Of course you can't have that investigated by someone who was on the scene as there is bound to be a suggestion they were involved in some way, even if it transpires "Christmas Party!" in this context was a rather ironic reference to someone getting a packet of Mr Kiplings for colleagues. There's simply bound to be apparent bias.
You need a capable person from outside the scene to come in, look at people's diaries, sit them down, and see if there is a consistent and credible story of what went on at various "gatherings".
It's just indicative of the omnishambles at Number 10. Even if Johnson was daft enough to do it that way, why on Earth didn't Case just say, "I don't think that's wise, Sir"? All as stupid as each other it seems.
This Simon Case thing was so inevitable, and again so self-inflicted.
The whole investigation is into whether people working for the Government in and around Downing Street around Christmas last year had "parties", what these did or did not involve, and who authorised them.
Of course you can't have that investigated by someone who was on the scene as there is bound to be a suggestion they were involved in some way, even if it transpires "Christmas Party!" in this context was a rather ironic reference to someone getting a packet of Mr Kiplings for colleagues. There's simply bound to be apparent bias.
You need a capable person from outside the scene to come in, look at people's diaries, sit them down, and see if there is a consistent and credible story of what went on at various "gatherings".
It's just indicative of the omnishambles at Number 10. Even if Johnson was daft enough to do it that way, why on Earth didn't Case just say, "I don't think that's wise, Sir"? All as stupid as each other it seems.
Case's inexperience beginning to seriously tell? He is very young for head of cabinet and not go through the usual route iirc.
We have the Southend West by election coming up, probably early February. Surely Labour, Lib Dems and Greens will fight it given the dramatic change in circumstances over the past month.
PS He agreed with my theorizing that if omicron is now an upper rather than lower respiratory tract infection (which, along with the higher virus reproduction rates in the bronchi leading to higher shedded viral loads, helps explain why it is way more transmissible), then that is consistent with expecting it to be a less severe illness than previous variants.
Meaning to ask you did you ever come across Julian Robinson? Had lunch with his sister last weekend
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Sympathy, but none of this gets past elementary and well known tests for behaviour at the top of government, and for those working with them and accountable to them.
Such as: how does this look on the front page of the Daily Mail when placed in the worst possible light
is there any chance of being found out
does it look like one rule for them, another rule for us.
Epic fail on each.
As was the NS by election which should never happen if MPs and government avoided unforced errors.
Unforced errors are worth a closer look. arguably they have demolished:
Thatcher - poll tax
Major - ERM
Blair - Iraq
Brown - the world's greatest expert on banking and finance fails to anticipate total failure of banking and finance
Cameron - the hopeless EU renegotiation and Remain campaign
May - dementia tax
Boris - where do you start....
That works if and only if you treat unforced error as a synonym for error. In each and every case there (Brown and Cameron less than the others) there were pressing reasons to do something, and valid arguments in favour of what the person actually did. Blair was, for instance, under pressure from some but not all of his own backbenchers, the USA, the opposition, and had the problem of Saddam's WMDs to address. How was his error "unforced"?
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman · 12m EXCL: Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"
Raises serious questions about his investigation into No 10 parties
The cabinet secretary "investigating" parties in government buildings. Whole thing is just so ridiculous on every level. In the vicinity of Boris Johnson everyone loses at least two of their job, their marbles or their dignity.
Titter, they are much better at political satire than being an airline
I think this site, and the country, have got Boris fatigue. NS was the most extraordinary upset of the century, and within hours of it happening PBers were having an animated conv as to whether being born in August harms one's life chances, or something.
Afternoon everyone. Been welcoming Thailand based grandchildren to UK.
I was in that conversation and those involved were, as usual on PB, discussing all sorts of matters as well as NS and time of the year to be born. Lively minded bunch comes to mind.
Anyway,. time of the year matters in these things. Just imagine PMQ's next Wednesday if Parliament had been sitting next week!
So if you've appointed someone to investigate some wrongdoing and then it becomes clear that they're implicated in the wrongdoing too... how exactly do you replace them without at the same time admitting that the thing they're investigating definitely definitely happened?
I imagine it has something to do with quantum dynamics - if it has not been observed, it has not resolved into actual outcomes but is still just possibilities hovering in the ether?
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Hmmm... The Case party began at 17:30. A party after work, going on into the evening, would seem like a breach of the COVID regulations, even if it's the same people who have been in an office together all day.
You think the police would have accepted a student saying everyone at the party has been studying in the library all day together officer?
Comments
The message from Tories this morning has been v different. The PM seems to say the problem is people & the media not focusing on the gov's priorities, one senior Tory said that unless Boris's 'tide of taint' is stopped there is no way they can make progress on other priorities.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471818806347673600
Lab 42%
Con 31%
Lib 12%
Green 5%
REF 3%
SNP 5%
Other 2%
Though obviously depends which polling company.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1471875612600160263
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804?s=20
There is, at the very least, a perception problem when the ruling party has been around for more than one term, for both UK and devolved govs.
I think that's the reality of it, unfortunately - a mild mannered but fundamentally unpleasant little man who got his just desserts.
I found his dragging his late wife into it particularly distasteful. The complaint was that the investigation took a toll on her, which seems plausible, and is terribly sad, although we don't really know the situation. But the investigation was entirely due to him very clearly breaking the rules, and its protracted nature was due to his strategy of fighting it every step of the way with no credible grounds whatsoever.
Con 0%
Lib 99%
Green 1%
REF 0%
SNP 0%
Other 0%
As I am never wrong on Covid you can relax till then
They have:
mass malnutrition and obesity, and by malnutrition I mean that over 35% of their under 5s have stunted growth.
13% of the population live with HIV
Rabies and TB are endemic
Millions of people live in shanty towns with limited hygiene
Far less vaccination and booster doses than the UK
Average life span 64 years
Yes in their demographic profile they are younger but they are ao disadvantaged in so many ways to the people in the UK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REpNTi-9oRQ
Is this the new "I did not inhale"?
That’s surely a gamechanger. No way OMICRON - which is 70 times quicker at spreading than Delta - will be able to get past that mighty wall of Welsh logic. Ok yes, 1 infected person in a room with 100 people can infect half of them in about 6 minutes BUT NOT IF THEY ARE WALKING SLOWLY, STARING DOWN AT ARROWS ON A FLOOR, BUMPING INTO EACH OTHER
There must come a time when Drakeford - THE DRAKE - will rightly be summoned to head a government of national unity and hand-washing protocols
No sympathy for the conceited old fool from me.
Also VERY smart and totally not going to get noticed by Nato members that the Kremlin suggested a ban on NEW nuclear missile deployments in border areas... which is handy given Russia's are already nice and snugly deployed
https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1471834192669458432?s=20
Took all of my professionalism to deal with that.
Lab 43%
Con 30%
LD 12%
… then factor in that BJ has lost the Midlands and North.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato
He was part of the rowing set, those buggers could drink.
How his psyche copes with suddenly not being popular will be, erm, shall we say interesting.
The defendant does not get to be the judge.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
She has zero tolerance left for anti-vaxxers. And the mood generally has become much more hostile recently- measures making life hard for the unvaccinated seem to be really popular.
https://twitter.com/DeanMThomson/status/1471845305578631176?s=20
Several/many members of public were fined £10k for this breech.
I am boiling with anger again.
At some point you have to wonder if we are governed by literal morons. Like, you could get a pigeon to randomly peck at a computer keyboard, with each peck producing a different government policy, and you’d get BETTER governance than we have now, with elected humans making ‘rational decisions’
Their chap from Birmingham running for NShrop would have lost his deposit.
(Harder to confirm for smaller areas as data less consistent, but to note I've tried a small selection of inner and outer London boroughs individually and they all meet the test). No Central belt or bordering London districts yet confirmed as meeting the test and no other full regions.
Will treat list as additive.
London Region
City of Manchester
https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1471883941544173570?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1471830082511585284?s=20
Titter, they are much better at political satire than being an airline
I think this site, and the country, have got Boris fatigue. NS was the most extraordinary upset of the century, and within hours of it happening PBers were having an animated conv as to whether being born in August harms one's life chances, or something.
Such as: how does this look on the front page of the Daily Mail when placed in the worst possible light
is there any chance of being found out
does it look like one rule for them, another rule for us.
Epic fail on each.
As was the NS by election which should never happen if MPs and government avoided unforced errors.
Unforced errors are worth a closer look. arguably they have demolished:
Thatcher - poll tax
Major - ERM
Blair - Iraq
Brown - the world's greatest expert on banking and finance fails to anticipate total failure of banking and finance
Cameron - the hopeless EU renegotiation and Remain campaign
May - dementia tax
Boris - where do you start....
Rising Covid cases have left London's fire and rescue service with "unprecedented" staff shortages, the Fire Brigades Union says.
According to London Fire Brigade statistics 40 fire engines, out of a total of 142, were unavailable on both the day and night shift on Thursday - a level also reached for at least parts of the 10, 11 and 15 December."
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59694961
=========
We will see more and more of this, key services and parts of the economy buckle as millions go off sick with a highly infectious Omicron.
The whole investigation is into whether people working for the Government in and around Downing Street around Christmas last year had "parties", what these did or did not involve, and who authorised them.
Of course you can't have that investigated by someone who was on the scene as there is bound to be a suggestion they were involved in some way, even if it transpires "Christmas Party!" in this context was a rather ironic reference to someone getting a packet of Mr Kiplings for colleagues. There's simply bound to be apparent bias.
You need a capable person from outside the scene to come in, look at people's diaries, sit them down, and see if there is a consistent and credible story of what went on at various "gatherings".
It's just indicative of the omnishambles at Number 10. Even if Johnson was daft enough to do it that way, why on Earth didn't Case just say, "I don't think that's wise, Sir"? All as stupid as each other it seems.
The curve for Gauteng is currently on a very very steep downward path.
https://www.nicd.ac.za/latest-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-17-december-2021/
We discussed the shared challenges including economic disruption and will continue to work together.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1471884945228546050?s=20
Surely Labour, Lib Dems and Greens will fight it given the dramatic change in circumstances over the past month.
In each and every case there (Brown and Cameron less than the others) there were pressing reasons to do something, and valid arguments in favour of what the person actually did. Blair was, for instance, under pressure from some but not all of his own backbenchers, the USA, the opposition, and had the problem of Saddam's WMDs to address. How was his error "unforced"?
"South Africa figures show a sharp one-day jump in oxygenated patients yesterday (at 1,280, up from 1,003)
Figures updated daily on The Spectator's data hub:"
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1471887130385428481?s=20
I was in that conversation and those involved were, as usual on PB, discussing all sorts of matters as well as NS and time of the year to be born. Lively minded bunch comes to mind.
Anyway,. time of the year matters in these things. Just imagine PMQ's next Wednesday if Parliament had been sitting next week!