London reports 26,608 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record and more than a quarter of UK cases
Lambeth, where my Dad lives, I think has a case rate of 2% infected in the 3 days 13-15th December that are still incomplete. It will probably end up with a 7-day rate of 5%, or higher, and that's just in confirmed cases.
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Hmmm... The Case party began at 17:30. A party after work, going on into the evening, would seem like a breach of the COVID regulations, even if it's the same people who have been in an office together all day.
You think the police would have accepted a student saying everyone at the party has been studying in the library all day together officer?
That's the whole point, isn't it. On the same day that these probably fairly innocent knees-ups were taking place, ordinary citizens in a similar position felt the full force of the law.
Just listened to that World at One interview: has BJ had a stroke? He sounds absolutely dreadful.
I think Boris know's the game's up!
The only question is how it ends.
If Boris had walked away in September or earlier it would have been with job done and nothing coming down the road to destroy his reputation.
As I've said multiple times since then there are very few upsides and lots of downsides from here on out (and that's ignoring all the self made screwups Boris has made).
Whole we wait for what mist be stonking england vaccination figures Scotland did 67k jabs which is a record.
Big numbers! Think England should be 700-750k today, bringing the total to over 800k at least. The weekend figures could be absolutely massive. Well over 1m per day each.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman · 12m EXCL: Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"
Raises serious questions about his investigation into No 10 parties
It makes you wonder what absolute morons work in government to not even think well if we are going to have a bit of a doo against the rules, we probably shouldn't write in the calendar "BIG ILLEGAL RULE BREAKING CHRISTMAS PISS UP", at least call it "PRE-CHRISTMAS STRATEGY MEETING".
They are surely just left with the rules dont apply at Downing St excuse?
We ask again. When are the police going to investigate the media's seeming now damning evidence that illegal parties were being held in Whitehall last xmas.
Several/many members of public were fined £10k for this breech.
I am boiling with anger again.
Only after they have cleared away the evidence of the parties at Scotland Yard.
London reports 26,608 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record and more than a quarter of UK cases
Lambeth, where my Dad lives, I think has a case rate of 2% infected in the 3 days 13-15th December that are still incomplete. It will probably end up with a 7-day rate of 5%, or higher, and that's just in confirmed cases.
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
This coming at Christmas is worst timing as that is exactly what is going to happen as lots of youngsters go to visit older family outside London.
PS He agreed with my theorizing that if omicron is now an upper rather than lower respiratory tract infection (which, along with the higher virus reproduction rates in the bronchi leading to higher shedded viral loads, helps explain why it is way more transmissible), then that is consistent with expecting it to be a less severe illness than previous variants.
Meaning to ask you did you ever come across Julian Robinson? Had lunch with his sister last weekend
London reports 26,608 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record and more than a quarter of UK cases
Lambeth, where my Dad lives, I think has a case rate of 2% infected in the 3 days 13-15th December that are still incomplete. It will probably end up with a 7-day rate of 5%, or higher, and that's just in confirmed cases.
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
This coming at Christmas is worst timing as that is exactly what is going to happen as lots of youngsters go to visit older family outside London.
Yes, it's almost as if OMICRON THE MASTERFUL planned it this way all along. A perfect storm of vectors
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Hmmm... The Case party began at 17:30. A party after work, going on into the evening, would seem like a breach of the COVID regulations, even if it's the same people who have been in an office together all day.
You think the police would have accepted a student saying everyone at the party has been studying in the library all day together officer?
That's the whole point, isn't it. On the same day that these probably fairly innocent knees-ups were taking place, ordinary citizens in a similar position felt the full force of the law.
I dunno know about anyone else on here, to me, the fact that the police seemingly wont investigate these multiple crimes is the worst aspect of all this. God knows what is going on inside the Met.
London reports 26,608 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record and more than a quarter of UK cases
Lambeth, where my Dad lives, I think has a case rate of 2% infected in the 3 days 13-15th December that are still incomplete. It will probably end up with a 7-day rate of 5%, or higher, and that's just in confirmed cases.
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
This coming at Christmas is worst timing as that is exactly what is going to happen as lots of youngsters go to visit older family outside London.
It's not much risk to us - they can do an LFT before they leave, and if they pick it up on the bus or train they won't be infectious when they meet us - but it would scupper their chances of meeting everyone else in the family over Christmas, who they can visit without taking the train. I don't fancy their chances of spending five hours on public transport in the day and not catching Omicron.
I thought you'd roughly said that after having a moment to sketch something on the back of an envelope you'd planned it all out...
But yes, 'Er..' !
I know it's not very scientific, and I in no way am recommending this a national guide, but when I start to hear of friends and acquaintances who've continued deteriorating past the 7-9 day patch I've heard so many times now, of a week of cold symptoms, sudden deterioration and even more bizarre recovery, I'll start to worry. Clearly there are vulnerable groups at risk and we must all be very careful at the current situation, but I've yet to hear of a single case of deterioration after this period in the way I was hearing from my extended circle, last year. Meanwhile the warnings every day get ever more dire.
London reports 26,608 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record and more than a quarter of UK cases
Lambeth, where my Dad lives, I think has a case rate of 2% infected in the 3 days 13-15th December that are still incomplete. It will probably end up with a 7-day rate of 5%, or higher, and that's just in confirmed cases.
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
This coming at Christmas is worst timing as that is exactly what is going to happen as lots of youngsters go to visit older family outside London.
I'm playing (organ) for a wedding in a tiny country church tomorrow. 60 youngsters up from London on the train. Hahahahahahahahahahahaaaargh
Titter, they are much better at political satire than being an airline
I think this site, and the country, have got Boris fatigue. NS was the most extraordinary upset of the century, and within hours of it happening PBers were having an animated conv as to whether being born in August harms one's life chances, or something.
Afternoon everyone. Been welcoming Thailand based grandchildren to UK.
I was in that conversation and those involved were, as usual on PB, discussing all sorts of matters as well as NS and time of the year to be born. Lively minded bunch comes to mind.
Anyway,. time of the year matters in these things. Just imagine PMQ's next Wednesday if Parliament had been sitting next week!
If this is correct, the 'party' probably wasn't a party at all, but an online quiz with a mixture of people at home and some in the office at their desks:
But such is the omnishambles of government now that, even if it was entirely within the rules, everyone is going to think that it wasn't and just get angrier and angrier (much as they did in the case of those MPs who had done absolutely nothing wrong in the expenses scandal).
Just listened to that World at One interview: has BJ had a stroke? He sounds absolutely dreadful.
I think Boris know's the game's up!
The only question is how it ends.
If Boris had walked away in September or earlier it would have been with job done and nothing coming down the road to destroy his reputation.
As I've said multiple times since then there are very few upsides and lots of downsides from here on out (and that's ignoring all the self made screwups Boris has made).
There's the possibility of a second general election victory for his legacy as the major upside that appeals to most Prime Ministers. Especially one with his ego.
If Boris wants a century long historical legacy that isn’t Brexit or covid before stepping down, he knows what he needs to do. Beat Biden to the punch and give the UAP speech!
By the way the special congressional UAP provisions in the defence procurement bill made it to Biden’s desk for signoff. The veil of secrecy is slowly but surely lifting.
Meanwhile the Uk government’s formal position was last reported to Parliament as: “the MOD has no opinion on the existence of extraterrestrial life… in over 50 years up until the closure of the UFO Desk, there was no existence of any military threat to the Uk”.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Sympathy, but none of this gets past elementary and well known tests for behaviour at the top of government, and for those working with them and accountable to them.
Such as: how does this look on the front page of the Daily Mail when placed in the worst possible light
is there any chance of being found out
does it look like one rule for them, another rule for us.
Epic fail on each.
As was the NS by election which should never happen if MPs and government avoided unforced errors.
Unforced errors are worth a closer look. arguably they have demolished:
Thatcher - poll tax
Major - ERM
Blair - Iraq
Brown - the world's greatest expert on banking and finance fails to anticipate total failure of banking and finance
Cameron - the hopeless EU renegotiation and Remain campaign
May - dementia tax
Boris - where do you start....
That works if and only if you treat unforced error as a synonym for error. In each and every case there (Brown and Cameron less than the others) there were pressing reasons to do something, and valid arguments in favour of what the person actually did. Blair was, for instance, under pressure from some but not all of his own backbenchers, the USA, the opposition, and had the problem of Saddam's WMDs to address. How was his error "unforced"?
The standards we set for PMs are high. They have access to all the intelligence and diplomacy that we don't, and know what we are not being told. They have the job of looking ahead rationally.
The public supported Iraq by and large on this sort of basis:
we were under direct attack we were certain of the WMD position there was a plan which could be executed to go in, win and set the region right a settled broadly moderate tolerant Iraq was a feasible option all the alternatives were worse.
What did Robin Cook know that Blair didn't?
For comparison: Harold Wilson keeping us out of the Viet Nam war.
If this is correct, the 'party' probably wasn't a party at all, but an online quiz with a mixture of people at home and some in the office at their desks:
This one was obvious from start, hence the initial focus on the bin bag.
London reports 26,608 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record and more than a quarter of UK cases
Lambeth, where my Dad lives, I think has a case rate of 2% infected in the 3 days 13-15th December that are still incomplete. It will probably end up with a 7-day rate of 5%, or higher, and that's just in confirmed cases.
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
This coming at Christmas is worst timing as that is exactly what is going to happen as lots of youngsters go to visit older family outside London.
I'm playing (organ) for a wedding in a tiny country church tomorrow. 60 youngsters up from London on the train. Hahahahahahahahahahahaaaargh
And they don't have to wear masks while they are singing...
Was discussed earlier - appears lots of parients who would have been ventilated in previous waves are now just getting oxygen. It is GOOD news.
The other thing is these are SA wide figures, if we want to look further into the future we are best off looking at Gauteng only and seeing what’s happening in hospitals there. Not to belittle that this is clearly putting people on hospital in SA but there’s a nuance that should be teased out if we want to use it for making predictions here.
We have more naive immune systems than them so are gonna look worse for sure. But really what more is there to be said and done. Prof Pants Down asking for a new lockdown tonight is whistling in the wind at this point.
"Nearly a third of London fire engines out of action due to Covid
Rising Covid cases have left London's fire and rescue service with "unprecedented" staff shortages, the Fire Brigades Union says.
According to London Fire Brigade statistics 40 fire engines, out of a total of 142, were unavailable on both the day and night shift on Thursday - a level also reached for at least parts of the 10, 11 and 15 December."
We will see more and more of this, key services and parts of the economy buckle as millions go off sick with a highly infectious Omicron.
Are we going to get a stage where those who are positive but not suffering are put together to continue doing certain jobs?
If it gets that bad then it's possible that the Government will be forced to dump the self-isolation rules and just let it rip. They obviously don't want a load of Covid-positive but not particularly ill people wandering the land, but OTOH a landscape of closed everything (where there are no operational emergency services and the utilities and food distribution network are in a state of collapse) would undoubtedly be worse.
If Boris wants a century long historical legacy that isn’t Brexit or covid before stepping down, he knows what he needs to do. Beat Biden to the punch and give the UAP speech!
By the way the special congressional UAP provisions in the defence procurement bill made it to Biden’s desk for signoff. The veil of secrecy is slowly but surely lifting.
Meanwhile the Uk government’s formal position was last reported to Parliament as: “the MOD has no opinion on the existence of extraterrestrial life… in over 50 years up until the closure of the UFO Desk, there was no existence of any military threat to the Uk”.
it would certainly ensure that no one ever believed that UFOs might be real.
As I commented this morning the 'landslide' lib dem victory was a near certainty and many congratulations to them
Listening to Boris just now is difficult and he looks terrible
Guido and others have discovered that Simon Case of all people was aware of a party in his own office which raises the question just how many civil servants were partying at this time and he cannot conduct an enquiry into Downing Street now
I do not want Boris for a moment longer, and it is now upto his mps and in particular the 1922 committee to seek his resignation, not just for the greater good but he and his families own health
As far as his successor is concerned I support Rishi but right now almost anyone but Boris (ABB) would fit the bill
I remember Thatcher's last months and this seems much the same, though I am sure one conservative mp is going to enjoy Christmas, step forward Theresa May
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference.
Before anyone tries to apply 1.7% to out numbers, it is a gross over-estimate (as was 19%, though the error is likely consistent to make comparison possible) given they do very little testing outside of hospital admissions.
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
With Covid. Valid point to wonder how much capacity is free'd up vs a normal year by the near elimination of flu right now.
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day, based purely on a total no of confirmed cases number.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
"Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?"
Nope - you can't just divide the number of cases to match the testing levels in another country. ONS will tell you the real story, but nearly nowhere is looking at that either.
"Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?"
Remarkably few countries are doing any identification of variants.
London reports 26,608 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record and more than a quarter of UK cases
Lambeth, where my Dad lives, I think has a case rate of 2% infected in the 3 days 13-15th December that are still incomplete. It will probably end up with a 7-day rate of 5%, or higher, and that's just in confirmed cases.
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
This coming at Christmas is worst timing as that is exactly what is going to happen as lots of youngsters go to visit older family outside London.
I'm playing (organ) for a wedding in a tiny country church tomorrow. 60 youngsters up from London on the train. Hahahahahahahahahahahaaaargh
And they don't have to wear masks while they are singing...
If they take their masks off at any point I strongly suspect the vicar will frog-march them out of the church!
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Hmmm... The Case party began at 17:30. A party after work, going on into the evening, would seem like a breach of the COVID regulations, even if it's the same people who have been in an office together all day.
You think the police would have accepted a student saying everyone at the party has been studying in the library all day together officer?
That's the whole point, isn't it. On the same day that these probably fairly innocent knees-ups were taking place, ordinary citizens in a similar position felt the full force of the law.
I dunno know about anyone else on here, to me, the fact that the police seemingly wont investigate these multiple crimes is the worst aspect of all this. God knows what is going on inside the Met.
Given what's going on in Scotland Yard, I wouldn't trust a Met policeman to tell me the time if I was standing under Big Ben.
Was discussed earlier - appears lots of parients who would have been ventilated in previous waves are now just getting oxygen. It is GOOD news.
The other thing is these are SA wide figures, if we want to look further into the future we are best off looking at Gauteng only and seeing what’s happening in hospitals there. Not to belittle that this is clearly putting people on hospital in SA but there’s a nuance that should be teased out if we want to use it for making predictions here.
We have more naive immune systems than them so are gonna look worse for sure. But really what more is there to be said and done. Prof Pants Down asking for a new lockdown tonight is whistling in the wind at this point.
Never mind Johnson, even Drakeford won't do anything significant in that direction until after Christmas (because he knows that most people won't obey a stay at home order at Christmas again,) and even come the 27th the measures proposed are some distance short of a full lockdown.
The more exhausted of (and therefore dismissive toward) lockdowns the people become, and the more infectious the disease gets, the less useful these restrictions become.
That said, if and when the hospitals start to burn you have to think that Governments will resort to stronger and stronger measures in panic. We're probably only going to be properly free of the yoke of this disease when a variant (which might turn out to be Omicron or, failing that, something more infectious that comes after it) spreads so easily that even lockdowns do little to stop it, and it goes through practically the whole of the susceptible population in a very short space of time.
No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
Here's how the current rates look for contributors reporting being newly sick. London still leading the way in a suspected Omicron tide and cases now exceeding 100k: https://t.co/07Mfk8L8cEhttps://t.co/UL2969MeU1
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
Also to note: regardless of how mild or severe a disease is, once we are into a wave of infections hospital admissions will rise exponentially at the same rate as infection. This seems to be missed in the panic about rapidly rising admissions in SA or London.
Say a virus has a case hospitalisation rate of 0.5% (i.e. is very mild) and a lag of 7 days from infection to admission. 7 days after cases hit 2000, the first 10 people will have been admitted to hospital. From then on, hospitalisation will rise as quickly as cases. So if cases double in 2 days so will the (low) hospitalisations. Exactly the same as if CHR were 50%.
Same too with deaths. Once Omicron has taken over and Delta is out of the system, deaths will rise exponentially at the same speed as cases, regardless how severe or mild the infection is.
This whole pandemic has been one long and fascinating maths case study.
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day, based purely on a total no of confirmed cases number.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
"Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?"
Nope - you can't just divide the number of cases to match the testing levels in another country. ONS will tell you the real story, but nearly nowhere is looking at that either.
"Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?"
Remarkably few countries are doing any identification of variants.
So no one else does any "incidence in the population" testing?
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day, based purely on a total no of confirmed cases number.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
"Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?"
Nope - you can't just divide the number of cases to match the testing levels in another country. ONS will tell you the real story, but nearly nowhere is looking at that either.
"Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?"
Remarkably few countries are doing any identification of variants.
So no one else does any "incidence in the population" testing?
Remarkably few countries - I've not been able to find much. You'd think that, since all it takes is a few thousand tests and some basic polling methodology.......
If those figures for hospitalisations keep on going up like that, another lockdown eventually looks a certainty to me, and then the only question is when it would be.
What I don't understand for the life of me is why feedback from relatives, friends and acquaintances on the virus's symptoms is so radically different from last time, if this variant also does present a genuine threat. Perhaps unvaccinated adults are the ones still at risk now, in that case. One thing I would only usefully notice is that my own circle skews heavily vaccinated.
As per Times/Guido, I understand invites were sent out for a 'Christmas Party!' on 17 Dec 2020 at the private office of Simon Case. He didn't take part in quiz, but was present. The BBC understands his position as chair of the inquiry into Downing St parties now being considered. https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1471874609989537804
Trying to be sympathetic for a moment (and Boris Johnson's administration hardly warrants any sympathy), if a group of people who are already in the office working together agree to have mince pies on a particular date when they're in the office anyway and would've taken a break anyway for a cuppa, and they call it a "Christmas Party!", I don't think that's a problem and I don't think that's a breach of the regulations. I also think low-key gatherings along such lines probably happened in many places.
However, at this point, anything short of 100% proactive transparency documenting the exact circumstances around every mince pie consumed and every party hat worn within a 500m radius of 10 Downing Street in November/December 2020 is disastrous for the Government's reputation.
Sympathy, but none of this gets past elementary and well known tests for behaviour at the top of government, and for those working with them and accountable to them.
Such as: how does this look on the front page of the Daily Mail when placed in the worst possible light
is there any chance of being found out
does it look like one rule for them, another rule for us.
Epic fail on each.
As was the NS by election which should never happen if MPs and government avoided unforced errors.
Unforced errors are worth a closer look. arguably they have demolished:
Thatcher - poll tax
Major - ERM
Blair - Iraq
Brown - the world's greatest expert on banking and finance fails to anticipate total failure of banking and finance
Cameron - the hopeless EU renegotiation and Remain campaign
May - dementia tax
Boris - where do you start....
That works if and only if you treat unforced error as a synonym for error. In each and every case there (Brown and Cameron less than the others) there were pressing reasons to do something, and valid arguments in favour of what the person actually did. Blair was, for instance, under pressure from some but not all of his own backbenchers, the USA, the opposition, and had the problem of Saddam's WMDs to address. How was his error "unforced"?
The standards we set for PMs are high. They have access to all the intelligence and diplomacy that we don't, and know what we are not being told. They have the job of looking ahead rationally.
The public supported Iraq by and large on this sort of basis:
we were under direct attack we were certain of the WMD position there was a plan which could be executed to go in, win and set the region right a settled broadly moderate tolerant Iraq was a feasible option all the alternatives were worse.
What did Robin Cook know that Blair didn't?
For comparison: Harold Wilson keeping us out of the Viet Nam war.
Yes, it may well have been an error. It was not unforced. Everybody thought WMDs existed. Even I did, I objected to the war on the pedantic basis that you stick to protocols and if you appoint an inspector you give him time to inspect.
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
Denmark, I think.
I think the same stories are being run about them in some places.
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
If those figures for hospitalisations keep on going up like that, another lockdown eventually looks a certainty to me, and then the only question is when it would be.
What I don't understand for the life of me is why feedback from relatives, friends and acquaintances is so radically different from last time, if this variant does present a genuine threat. Perhaps unvaccinated adults of all ages really are the ones at some risk now, in that case. One thing I would only usefully notice is that my own circle skews heavily vaccinated.
Really depends how far along this thing we are. Even london hospital figures are up just under 50% in a week. compared to prior peaks, carrying that on for 3 more weeks would still have us comfortably below.
Personally I expect it to accelerate a little, but also not to last 3 more weeks (for London). Supply of new hosts is going to be limited pretty soon at the current rate.
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
Looks like Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday (54.2% on 14th December specimens). And it's extremely striking how England growth (red) is at exactly the same speed as London (blue). Two regression lines are basically parallel, just England is ~4 days behind.
Omicron doubling every two days both in London and (with the four-day lag) in England as a whole.
If those figures for hospitalisations keep on going up like that, another lockdown eventually looks a certainty to me, and then the only question is when it would be.
What I don't understand for the life of me is why feedback from relatives, friends and acquaintances on the virus's symptoms is so radically different from last time, if this variant also does present a genuine threat. Perhaps unvaccinated and other vulnerable adults are the ones still at risk now, in that case. One thing I would only usefully notice is that my own circle skews heavily vaccinated.
Asked before but not noticed any good answers yet. If we lockdown, how long is it likely to be for, and what are the exit conditions?
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
Err, why did they all vote for him then? I struggle to believe people can be politically aware enough to join conhome but not have known who Boris really was in 2019.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
It's the Fox Mulder explanation. "I want to believe."
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
Denmark, I think.
I think the same stories are being run about them in some places.
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
Pretty much. The number of people round the world doing country comparisons based on cases and who haven't realised that there is a testing rate......
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
Headline figures are people with covid, regardless of whether they're admitted because of covid. The government also publishes weekly figures showing the number of incidental admissions compared to admissions caused by covid.
No wonder Sturgeon hasn't got money to support business over COVID...
The Scottish government has taken a £161m provision against a guarantee it handed to Sanjeev Gupta, underlining the risk to taxpayers from underwriting the metals magnate’s takeover of Britain’s last aluminium smelter....
Reminder: we only know the eye-popping £586m size of the guarantee handed to Gupta due to an FOI from the FT. Scotland fought for nearly two years to keep it secret.
The guarantee underpinned a complex deal masterminded by the now-collapsed Greensill
Looks like Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday (54.2% on 14th December specimens). And it's extremely striking how England growth (red) is at exactly the same speed as London (blue). Two regression lines are basically parallel, just England is ~4 days behind.
Omicron doubling every two days both in London and (with the four-day lag) in England as a whole.
As I commented this morning the 'landslide' lib dem victory was a near certainty and many congratulations to them
Listening to Boris just now is difficult and he looks terrible
Guido and others have discovered that Simon Case of all people was aware of a party in his own office which raises the question just how many civil servants were partying at this time and he cannot conduct an enquiry into Downing Street now
I do not want Boris for a moment longer, and it is now upto his mps and in particular the 1922 committee to seek his resignation, not just for the greater good but he and his families own health
As far as his successor is concerned I support Rishi but right now almost anyone but Boris (ABB) would fit the bill
I remember Thatcher's last months and this seems much the same, though I am sure one conservative mp is going to enjoy Christmas, step forward Theresa May
Sorry that's a massive amount of hindsight/aftertiming. The betting swung around but was approximately 50:50 prior to the event.
Is there a decent way of estimating the actual number of cases from the published data?
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
Denmark, I think.
I think the same stories are being run about them in some places.
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
Could this possibly be because (as discussed at various points during this mess) the UK and Denmark have better sequencing capabilities than everyone else in Europe? Other countries can't report Omicron cases that they aren't looking for.
Also the Netherlands: Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), tremendous efforts have been made to sequence the viral genome from samples collected throughout the world. Here, we evaluate how various countries have performed in sequencing from the perspectives of “fraction”, “timeliness”, and “openness”. We found that high proportions of samples were sequenced in the UK, the USA, Australia, and Iceland; sequencing was performed promptly in Iceland, the Netherlands, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; and data were shared timely from the Netherlands, the USA, Iceland, and the UK. Although many developing countries have high numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infected cases but few published sequences, we observed good performance on sequencing efforts for some low- and middle-income countries. Further strengthening of the sequencing capacity at a global level would help in the fight against not only the current pandemic but also future outbreaks of viral diseases https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)32557-1/pdf (Dec 2020)
Looks like Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday (54.2% on 14th December specimens). And it's extremely striking how England growth (red) is at exactly the same speed as London (blue). Two regression lines are basically parallel, just England is ~4 days behind.
Omicron doubling every two days both in London and (with the four-day lag) in England as a whole.
By the time Boris announces a lockdown om the 3rd Jan, be on the way down.
So far my predix from about ten days ago look pretty good:
"Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
The first bit is already coming true. We are getting Plan C, an incremental tightening of our quasi-lockdown. It is overt in Scotland and Wales, and tacit in England - don't go to parties, don't go out at al. Restaurants and pubs are shuttering, in mid December....
Christ. Look at the R for Hackney. And Camden not far behind....
14/12 is 272% higher than 7/12 in Hackney - so we're at weekly near quadrupling. Slight sign of this slowing down (i.e. weekly increase getting bigger slower), but there is still some rate increase dilution by Delta in that.
But an increase getting bigger still means above exponential and that will be the case until Delta is near eliminated.
As I commented this morning the 'landslide' lib dem victory was a near certainty and many congratulations to them
Listening to Boris just now is difficult and he looks terrible
Guido and others have discovered that Simon Case of all people was aware of a party in his own office which raises the question just how many civil servants were partying at this time and he cannot conduct an enquiry into Downing Street now
I do not want Boris for a moment longer, and it is now upto his mps and in particular the 1922 committee to seek his resignation, not just for the greater good but he and his families own health
As far as his successor is concerned I support Rishi but right now almost anyone but Boris (ABB) would fit the bill
I remember Thatcher's last months and this seems much the same, though I am sure one conservative mp is going to enjoy Christmas, step forward Theresa May
Sorry that's a massive amount of hindsight/aftertiming. The betting swung around but was approximately 50:50 prior to the event.
If you check back my posts I predicted a landslide some time ago and have been proved to be correct
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Looks like Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday (54.2% on 14th December specimens). And it's extremely striking how England growth (red) is at exactly the same speed as London (blue). Two regression lines are basically parallel, just England is ~4 days behind.
Omicron doubling every two days both in London and (with the four-day lag) in England as a whole.
By the time Boris announces a lockdown om the 3rd Jan, be on the way down.
So far my predix from about ten days ago look pretty good:
"Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
The first bit is already coming true. We are getting Plan C, an incremental tightening of our quasi-lockdown. It is overt in Scotland and Wales, and tacit in England - don't go to parties, don't go out at al. Restaurants and pubs are shuttering, in mid December....
The thing to remember is now loads of the future is already baked in....
Estimated vaccine efficacies of boosters vs Omicron. 1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk. 2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster. (From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.)https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
93-95% reduction in severe symptoms, mega. Lines up exactly with what my friend modelled last week. No wonder why they pay him so much money!
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well. - Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London. - Deaths still flat.
Asking for the umteenth time (don't take it personally) is that a rise in admissions with covid or a rise in total admissions?
Headline figures are people with covid, regardless of whether they're admitted because of covid. The government also publishes weekly figures showing the number of incidental admissions compared to admissions caused by covid.
My mum is an incidental admission today, she's got COVID but also has an ear infection and has been asked to stay for observation because of a pre-existing hearing loss condition. Happily her COVID symptoms are mostly gone.
Comments
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/lord-frost-statement-on-the-protocol-on-irelandnorthern-ireland-17-december-2021--2
The only question is how it ends.
@AllisonPearson
·
30m
You were not permitted to have social gatherings of more than two people in Tier 3.
But yes, 'Er..' !
I've suggested now is not the time to take the train to meet us in Bath.
As I've said multiple times since then there are very few upsides and lots of downsides from here on out (and that's ignoring all the self made screwups Boris has made).
Out of 60 million people 1280 are on oxygen for Covid.
How many of our 7,000 in hospital for Covid would be on oxygen, I would guess the vast majority.
Very odd.
Have T put us on their Red List yet ?
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1471890741370703872
But such is the omnishambles of government now that, even if it was entirely within the rules, everyone is going to think that it wasn't and just get angrier and angrier (much as they did in the case of those MPs who had done absolutely nothing wrong in the expenses scandal).
Currently it is 1112.
Yes, it has actually fallen.
By the way the special congressional UAP provisions in the defence procurement bill made it to Biden’s desk for signoff. The veil of secrecy is slowly but surely lifting.
Meanwhile the Uk government’s formal position was last reported to Parliament as:
“the MOD has no opinion on the existence of extraterrestrial life… in over 50 years up until the closure of the UFO Desk, there was no existence of any military threat to the Uk”.
The public supported Iraq by and large on this sort of basis:
we were under direct attack
we were certain of the WMD position
there was a plan which could be executed to go in, win and set the region right
a settled broadly moderate tolerant Iraq was a feasible option
all the alternatives were worse.
What did Robin Cook know that Blair didn't?
For comparison: Harold Wilson keeping us out of the Viet Nam war.
Today they're roughly level, with Natal doubling and Gauteng getting on for halving.
Getting a little narked with Euro TV stations running plague island story on a loop all day, based purely on a total no of confirmed cases number.
Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?
We have more naive immune systems than them so are gonna look worse for sure. But really what more is there to be said and done. Prof Pants Down asking for a new lockdown tonight is whistling in the wind at this point.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/france-emmanuel-macron-clement-beaune-britain-elysee-b1978123.html
Listening to Boris just now is difficult and he looks terrible
Guido and others have discovered that Simon Case of all people was aware of a party in his own office which raises the question just how many civil servants were partying at this time and he cannot conduct an enquiry into Downing Street now
I do not want Boris for a moment longer, and it is now upto his mps and in particular the 1922 committee to seek his resignation, not just for the greater good but he and his families own health
As far as his successor is concerned I support Rishi but right now almost anyone but Boris (ABB) would fit the bill
I remember Thatcher's last months and this seems much the same, though I am sure one conservative mp is going to enjoy Christmas, step forward Theresa May
Days ago continental newspapers were pairing UK and Dk as places of surging Corona.
- Cases up. Big take off in London. Heavily in the younger groups, but older groups in increasing as well.
- Admissions overall trending up. Sharply up in London.
- Deaths still flat.
Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference.
Before anyone tries to apply 1.7% to out numbers, it is a gross over-estimate (as was 19%, though the error is likely consistent to make comparison possible) given they do very little testing outside of hospital admissions.
Nope - you can't just divide the number of cases to match the testing levels in another country. ONS will tell you the real story, but nearly nowhere is looking at that either.
"Does anyone else publish real Omicron data?"
Remarkably few countries are doing any identification of variants.
The more exhausted of (and therefore dismissive toward) lockdowns the people become, and the more infectious the disease gets, the less useful these restrictions become.
That said, if and when the hospitals start to burn you have to think that Governments will resort to stronger and stronger measures in panic. We're probably only going to be properly free of the yoke of this disease when a variant (which might turn out to be Omicron or, failing that, something more infectious that comes after it) spreads so easily that even lockdowns do little to stop it, and it goes through practically the whole of the susceptible population in a very short space of time.
Say a virus has a case hospitalisation rate of 0.5% (i.e. is very mild) and a lag of 7 days from infection to admission. 7 days after cases hit 2000, the first 10 people will have been admitted to hospital. From then on, hospitalisation will rise as quickly as cases. So if cases double in 2 days so will the (low) hospitalisations. Exactly the same as if CHR were 50%.
Same too with deaths. Once Omicron has taken over and Delta is out of the system, deaths will rise exponentially at the same speed as cases, regardless how severe or mild the infection is.
This whole pandemic has been one long and fascinating maths case study.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/metrics/doc/hospitalCases#patients-in-hospital
The important measure is the change - all metric have some flaw or the other.
{Idly kicks the cage of flying lawyers}
"Johnson really is in cloud cuckoo land. Until he recognises that it is his sleaze and lying that is the real message of this defeat then there is no hope for this party"
"Is Brexit sustainable? It was voted in by the elderly years ago. There is no economic good news from it. Nothing for Brits to look forward to. More unnecessary pain."
"News about Downing Street Christmas Parties in Lockdown London, the video of Allegra Stratton laughing about it, Parties in Lockdown at Conservative Central HQ and Boris Johnson, Wallpaper and the Conservative donor and the barbecue Party in May 2020 - all this filled the masses with rage at the Government and at Boris Johnson in particular."
"As a Conservative voter the message I wish to leave with the Parliamentary Party is that you and Johnson between you have lost the North Shropshire bye election. You have done as you usually managed to do and that is to indulge your own preferences over the best interests of the country."
"The government needs to manage the country competently and stop being so sleazy and lying in the process. There seems only one cure for that."
"I would commend the Sam Coates Sky TV journalist interview today with Boris. As a Boris supporter his responses were dire. NOT what was needed right now. He doesn’t appear to * get it* !"
"The shine seems to be coming off Brexit here in North Shropshire, or at least it is much less of a tribal issue. "
"Boris Johnson's personal qualities make him unfit to hold any responsible job whatsoever."
"Unless there is major change the Party won't win the next GE. The shambles Johnston has made of Covid (first round of Vaccines excepted) will not count by then but high taxes, big state, high inflation and loss of civil liberties etc will."
"My local drinking group is fairly straightforward - they will tolerate a lot but hate with a passion being lied to. And that's the PM's modus operandi: lie, cheat and deceive when he was been found out about the parties last Christmas. Plus they greatly dislike the whiff of double-standards and downright corruption associated with attempting to get Paterson off the hook when he was clearly bang to rights."
"Conservatives in places like North Shropshire voted for Brexit because they believed Boris's promises that they would benefit. However, this largely rural constituency- especially its farmers - now realise they were lied to."
"Time for Bojo to go. Not only has he become a political joke he is in danger of single-handedly pushing the Conservative Party into oblivion."
"I'm pleased we lost, it may get rid of Johnson"
"This all comes back to Brexit. The way in which this was handled means that the party has lost the support of a substantial block of its traditional voters."
"This is clearly a protest vote against Johnson and his bunch of incompetents."
What I don't understand for the life of me is why feedback from relatives, friends and acquaintances on the virus's symptoms is so radically different from last time, if this variant also does present a genuine threat. Perhaps unvaccinated adults are the ones still at risk now, in that case. One thing I would only usefully notice is that my own circle skews heavily vaccinated.
Personally I expect it to accelerate a little, but also not to last 3 more weeks (for London). Supply of new hosts is going to be limited pretty soon at the current rate.
The truth is they did not mind the corruption or lies when they thought he was on their side. If he can re-frame it so he is on their side again, he will be fine.
1) Don't think effectiveness; think 1 - effectiveness. So e.g., 98% down to 92% may not seem like much. But it means 4x the risk.
2) Anyone 50+. Get. Your. Freaking. Booster.
(From Imperial Report 48. https://t.co/8CAfxPoKHC.) https://t.co/1xTKuBmecD
Looks like Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday (54.2% on 14th December specimens). And it's extremely striking how England growth (red) is at exactly the same speed as London (blue). Two regression lines are basically parallel, just England is ~4 days behind.
Omicron doubling every two days both in London and (with the four-day lag) in England as a whole.
Chart here:
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1471899191957987328
"I want to believe."
I have zero sympathy for the people that have chosen not to be vaccinated and thereby fall ill.
Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), tremendous efforts have been made to sequence the viral genome from samples collected throughout the world. Here, we evaluate how various countries have performed in sequencing from the perspectives of “fraction”, “timeliness”, and “openness”. We found that high proportions of samples were sequenced in the UK, the USA, Australia, and Iceland; sequencing was performed promptly in Iceland, the Netherlands, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; and data were shared timely from the Netherlands, the USA, Iceland, and the UK. Although many developing countries have high numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infected cases but few published sequences, we observed good performance on sequencing efforts for some low- and middle-income countries. Further strengthening of the sequencing capacity at a global level would help in the fight against not only the current pandemic but also future outbreaks of viral diseases
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)32557-1/pdf
(Dec 2020)
Mind you, in the areas with poor take up, it is often across the board in terms of age.
"Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
The first bit is already coming true. We are getting Plan C, an incremental tightening of our quasi-lockdown. It is overt in Scotland and Wales, and tacit in England - don't go to parties, don't go out at al. Restaurants and pubs are shuttering, in mid December....
But an increase getting bigger still means above exponential and that will be the case until Delta is near eliminated.
https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-17122021-ep96
I got 2xAZ 6 months ago and can get either Pfizer or Moderna next week and am not sure which to get.
I did a bit of digging online and could see in the BMJ that Moderna is marginally better than Pfizer as a booster, in terms of antibodies, *but* that was tested with a full dose. Currently the UK is doing half doses of Moderna and full doses of Pfizer I believe, therefore, no true like for like figures for me to make a decision on.
I vaguely remember seeing here a few days ago a discussion about Moderna vs Pfizer as a booster. Is anyone able to point me to relevant data?
Thanks!
"Who's on the Case case? Case?"
We could even have heard a
"Who is on the Case case case? Case?"
Obviously still not as good as the immortal
Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_buffalo_Buffalo_buffalo