The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
Leon has no grasp of the concept of complex adaptive systems. He doesn't seem to understand that his hysterical outpourings, day after day, have an effect on people – because there is no such thing as a closed network. In some small way he himself makes lockdowns more likely.
Desist.
What I do have is an ability to assimilate information and impart it to others in a pithy way, very quickly. That’s it. Sorry if it upsets.
Sorry, but cutting and pasting whatever hyperbolic crap you’ve just read on Twitter, without having thought about it at all, isn’t evidence of anything other than a childish desire to be the first to arrive with the bad news
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If it hits 800k a day then it hits 800k a day. That's 5.6 million people a week. Within a couple of months everyone has had it and life goes on because that's over and done with.
That's the only way to get through this now. It hits however it hits, the NHS copes as well as it can, vaccines do as much as they can, and anyone who dies is mourned but life goes on.
"Life goes on"
Well, yes. Except for those who die, obviously. They've gone on to your nirvanic ultimate freedom ...
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Valid. But are you sure there isn't a touch of displacement from you because of the Great Man's troubles? Johnson, I mean. He's been exposed beyond all doubt now as exactly the person his detractors have always said he is. This will be tough for those who've invested time & energy in bigging him up.
As for OMICRON THE CANDID, I think a return to Lockdown (meaningful sense) is unlikely. What I can foresee is a protracted period of restrictions, pitched so as not to open the door to large scale government financial support of people & businesses.
I remember when the vaccine was going to get us back to normality by summer. I told you all then that was absurd.
If we go to lockdowns every time we have a new variant it will destroy the economy in due course and lead to mass unemployment in the private sector outside the likes of delivery firms like Amazon.
Double vaccination and boosters reduce the risk of hospitalisation to near zero, there must be no more lockdowns
Nonsense. Given infection, double vaccination has been found to reduce the likelihood of hospitalisation by about a factor of three. That was with earlier variants that didn't show the immune escape capability of Omicron.
I remember when the vaccine was going to get us back to normality by summer. I told you all then that was absurd.
We have been back to normal for four blissful months – almost entirely because of the vaccines. So, I'm not sure what point you are making!
We haven’t though. The virus was still around causing damage. People ignored the virus, it doesn’t mean we were back to normal. The lack of mask wearing was really sad and sickening to see.
You are mad - most people hate masks. Why was a lack of mask wearing 'sad and and sickening'? Is it just your typical left wing statist control freak nature?
Queuing for my booster at Guy’s hospital. It’s encouraging that the queue is quite lengthy and lots of the people in it are youngish. A bit chilly though.
After my 2 premium-economy AZs will it be business class Pfizer or plutocratic Moderna?
Still queuing. Bloody hell. Last time I just wandered in and got it.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If it hits 800k a day then it hits 800k a day. That's 5.6 million people a week. Within a couple of months everyone has had it and life goes on because that's over and done with.
That's the only way to get through this now. It hits however it hits, the NHS copes as well as it can, vaccines do as much as they can, and anyone who dies is mourned but life goes on.
"Life goes on"
Well, yes. Except for those who die, obviously. They've gone on to your nirvanic ultimate freedom ...
No shit Sherlock, is it news to you that people die?
Everyone dies eventually. Get over it. Stop being terrified of death, there are fates worse than death.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If the direction of travel on the work in progress data is right, the issue isn't "do we need to lockdown". Because if this truly is going to spread exponentially then even a "full lockdown" won't contain it because at no point has the UK ever had a full lockdown, and even the half lockdown we endured is impossible now to reinstate.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
Leon has no grasp of the concept of complex adaptive systems. He doesn't seem to understand that his hysterical outpourings, day after day, have an effect on people – because there is no such thing as a closed network. In some small way he himself makes lockdowns more likely.
Desist.
So, what, lockdowns are actually my fault?! Lol. Who knew? The power of the dildo knapper on PB! The power of PB!
Fwiw if you actually read my commentary rather than weeping like a girl guide in terror, and asking to borrow Topping’s teddy bear from his boarding school days, you’d know I am pretty much anti lockdown
I don’t support plan B. Said it on here many times. I am unconvinced any lockdown can stop Omicron
What I do have is an ability to assimilate information and impart it to others in a pithy way, very quickly. That’s it. Sorry if it upsets.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
What proportion of the population do you think can have Covid at once? We are at 1 in 60 right now in England and up at 1 in 50 in Wales.
Sure, cases can clearly rise further, but we aren't a million miles away from a natural limit (e.g. we peaked at 1 in 10 amongst school children).
Exponential growth can only go on for so long with a finite population.
It then reinfects people. Omicron doesn't seem to care if you've had Covid already.
Omicron won't reinfect omicron, except in immune compromised people, who probably would struggle to clear it. Reinfection generally is milder as the immune system has already been exposed, even with variants.
If you’d all listened to me and restricted when I said, we’d have done a lot better. Once again people are in denial about this virus.
The goalposts on Omicron have been shifted again. First it was no threat, then a little threat and now it’s a real threat. This was obvious from day 1
Codswallop. You're in denial about the reality of restrictions.
You've been calling for restrictions forever. Under no circumstances can we accept any more restrictions. If Omicron spreads then anyone afraid of it should hide themselves, not others.
We? You mean you. We being the general population who hate restrictions and feel pretty fed up will likely accept at least some of them and feel societal pressure to at least look like we're doing so.
And then we have the minority. The paranoids. The psychotics. The gammoners. Your new mates apparently.
The paranoids psychotics are those calling for new lockdown measures that will destroy people's businesses, mental health, opportunities etc in order to prevent what for most vaccinated people will be no more than the sniffles.
The price is simply not worth paying.
As I keep saying in SA Omicron is everywhere , yet they have not locked down and there have only been a very small number of hospital admissions for just Covid compared to the number of actual infections which I am sure are 10 times the official figure, why do people think it will be radically different here.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If there is another full lockdown there will be a full civil war in the Tory party, already almost a third of Tory MPs are ready to vote against Plan B.
I would think even more than half of Tory MPs would vote against another full lockdown and that really would be the end of Boris
@Carnyx you're exactly where I am on COVID and restrictions and just as last time we’re being shouted at by the usual suspects. I remember when you and I were some of the few to call for a lockdown last year.
Quite. Hope you're keeping as cheerful as one can expect in the circs ...
People in Wales are being asked to take a lateral flow test before they go out - in an attempt to help protect others against Covid.
The Welsh government is asking everyone to use the tests before Christmas shopping, going to parties or visiting others.
I wish we England had Mark Drakeford as our Prime Minister, even the Chief Executive of Millwall is saying no one will respect the rules in England because the Prime Minister is a liar and hypocrite.
I remember when people here said how rubbish Drakeford was. Strangely they’ve gone quiet.
The ONS says hello....
milquetoast whataboutery
Not how I'd describe higher infection rates despite greater restrictions.....
We never were back at normality. That was the lie of the summer.
Many people were back at normality. The country as a whole was not: the NHS was still under pressure, people were still dying, etc, etc. But many people did not choose to see any of that; and fair enough, in a way. I was pretty much back to 'normal'; the only exception being that I wore a mask when going into shops or public enclosed spaces. And that was my choice.
Lockdowns are an evil. Restrictions are terrible. But a failing health service is terrible, and deaths evil. We have to balance these awful things out; some people weight heavily one way; others the other.
I’m accused of being in love with lockdowns. Which with my mental health issues is clearly absurd. I don’t want a lockdown, I just am struggling to see another outcome.
I can - omicron causes a lot of cases of people with mild disease, thanks for vaccination (including boosters for the most at risk - done already), and recovery from infection (estimated to be 10-30 million of us). Hopsitals and deaths don't surge, and by March the future looks good. Why is that so implausible?
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If the direction of travel on the work in progress data is right, the issue isn't "do we need to lockdown". Because if this truly is going to spread exponentially then even a "full lockdown" won't contain it because at no point has the UK ever had a full lockdown, and even the half lockdown we endured is impossible now to reinstate.
If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
"Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.
I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.
It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Where ought I, as a religiously observant left winger (in attendance 3 or.4 times a week on a 40 mile round trip on public transport), stand on this issue? Frankly. If your Faith needs exceptions made purely for its own convenience, then it isn't much of a Faith. And certainly is no example to the secular.
Blimey, that's a lot of church going. Are you a vicar ?
No. Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude. And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Me, a leftwinger? I suppose it must seem like that from your perspecvtive.
Have you not been paying attention? Hospitalization numbers follow cases. And therefore case numbers matter, enormously.
Nope, for those double vaccinated and who have had their boosters the hospitalisation rate is near zero.
Not low enough to keep the NHS clear.
You need to have a sense of social responsibility.
Yes enough to keep the NHS clear once most of us have had our boosters.
It is not about social responsibility, it is about your leftwing, statist agenda of control
I don't think anyone actually knows what will happen, yet. I think we will have a good idea in the next couple of weeks though.
Exactly, and simply denying the possible need for controls is not good enough, thouigh I do hope they won't be needed.
I’m a centrist dad too but one who feels we’ve got the thresholds wrong.
Relieving pressure on the NHS isn’t enough to justify restrictions. It never was for any other infectious disease. Avoiding system collapse so that public health outcomes suffer is the threshold, and is why lockdowns pre-vaccine in 2020 and last winter were probably justified. Now, to my mind, any restrictions simply delay the inevitable, they don’t save lives.
We need to relieve pressure on the NHS by investing in capacity, efficiency and people.
Take the point, though it's also arguable that medical care itself has changed so that a virus like this does exert pressure in ways not foreseen. 1919 flu, what NHS? 1960-whatever it was flu, people just died quicky of pneumonia and didn't need ICU.
Is the new attack line to call anyone you don't agree with a left winger. How boring.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
The Omicron variant has the potential to “very substantially overwhelm the NHS” and cause up to 10,000 hospitalisations a day if it is as virulent as Delta, according to a leading scientist who helped shape Britain’s coronavirus lockdown strategy.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist from Imperial College London, said the UK was already experiencing a “very explosive wave of infection” from the new variant. This could lead to “quite an explosive wave of hospitalisations,” depending on the severity of disease caused by Omicron.
But Ferguson said: “Even the best case scenarios involve several-fold more admissions per day than we’re getting at the moment – we are at about 700 right now.”
The stark figure of 10,000 hospitalisations a day is more than double the current highest level, with 4,582 admissions on 12 January this year.
Some people are so messed up and warped now that they seem to have adopted a zero death mantra. Nobody can ever die, under any circumstances, ever again it seems.
That's utterly delusional. We need to be able to accept and live with death.
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
"Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.
I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.
It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.
How about go fuck yourself.
There's a start without asterisks.
I think I have made my views quite clear and I am grateful that you should have responded to me after telling me you were going to ignore me. I can also live with you not responding to me.
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
"Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.
I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.
It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.
.
Well said Nick.
For once I am actually on the Government's side, they were right to put restrictions in and they acted quickly. They have my credit for that.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
Leon has no grasp of the concept of complex adaptive systems. He doesn't seem to understand that his hysterical outpourings, day after day, have an effect on people – because there is no such thing as a closed network. In some small way he himself makes lockdowns more likely.
Desist.
Yes I do agree. But also he is like this (psychotherapists gown on) because the more hysterical he is on here the more people tell him not to be hysterical and hence he is given some balance in his life from sane people and can calm down and be reassured that the world won't end tomorrow whereas without it he would be left to the doomier side of Twitter.
Leon, your welcome.
You don't begin to grasp my power. As Anabobazina has pointed out, I, by myself, decide the entire national debate on Lockdowns, if not the world
Probably SAGE read PB every hour, to check my latest mood swing. Hence the new restrictions this week, and Sturgeon today, as I have grown slightly gloomier. I think I'm also responsible for the school closures in Denmark
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Where ought I, as a religiously observant left winger (in attendance 3 or.4 times a week on a 40 mile round trip on public transport), stand on this issue? Frankly. If your Faith needs exceptions made purely for its own convenience, then it isn't much of a Faith. And certainly is no example to the secular.
Blimey, that's a lot of church going. Are you a vicar ?
No. Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude. And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
Not even that. I notice the assumption that I'm not merely a leftie but also secular. All I've said about religion is that I don't think it should be broight into politics - least of all in the Erastian C of E way where the UK (really England) is a postmediaeval theocracy in spirit and still to some extent in fact. I could be a Free Presbyterian or a Quaker or a Muslim or a Congregationalist for all HYFD knows.
Is the new attack line to call anyone you don't agree with a left winger. How boring.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
I've been called a non Tory despite being a member of the party for 23 years and helping countless Tory councillors and MPs get elected.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Where ought I, as a religiously observant left winger (in attendance 3 or.4 times a week on a 40 mile round trip on public transport), stand on this issue? Frankly. If your Faith needs exceptions made purely for its own convenience, then it isn't much of a Faith. And certainly is no example to the secular.
Blimey, that's a lot of church going. Are you a vicar ?
No. Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude. And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
Not even that. I notice the assumption that I'm not merely a leftie but also secular. All I've said about religion is that I don't think it should be broight into politics - least of all in the Erastian C of E way where the UK (really England) is a postmediaeval theocracy in spirit and still to some extent in fact. I could be a Free Presbyterian or a Quaker or a Muslim or a Congregationalist for all HYFD knows.
Anyone left of Thatcher is now a communist, that's the pit that one member has fallen into.
Is the new attack line to call anyone you don't agree with a left winger. How boring.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
I've been called a non Tory despite being a member of the party for 23 years and helping countless Tory councillors and MPs get elected.
You are also been called a massive Islamophobe ;-)
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If it hits 800k a day then it hits 800k a day. That's 5.6 million people a week. Within a couple of months everyone has had it and life goes on because that's over and done with.
That's the only way to get through this now. It hits however it hits, the NHS copes as well as it can, vaccines do as much as they can, and anyone who dies is mourned but life goes on.
"Life goes on"
Well, yes. Except for those who die, obviously. They've gone on to your nirvanic ultimate freedom ...
What is your 18-month plan?
I don't have one. But if you were to ask me, if we have to, we should buy time. The more time we have, the more people vaxed. The more people boostered. The more treatment drugs we will have. The greater capability we will have to beat this sod. But only if we have to. I am not wedded to the idea of restrictions and lockdowns; neither am I wedded to ignoring the deaths that may occur if we try to go on as normal.
Hopefully Omicron won't be as bad as feared; there's even a possibility it might be relatively 'good' (if its effects are nowhere near as bad as Delta). But we cannot rely on that.
So what's your 18-month plan?
I'll say one thing: I'm blooming glad I don't have to make these decisions.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
Leon has no grasp of the concept of complex adaptive systems. He doesn't seem to understand that his hysterical outpourings, day after day, have an effect on people – because there is no such thing as a closed network. In some small way he himself makes lockdowns more likely.
Desist.
Yes I do agree. But also he is like this (psychotherapists gown on) because the more hysterical he is on here the more people tell him not to be hysterical and hence he is given some balance in his life from sane people and can calm down and be reassured that the world won't end tomorrow whereas without it he would be left to the doomier side of Twitter.
Leon, your welcome.
You don't begin to grasp my power. As Anabobazina has pointed out, I, by myself, decide the entire national debate on Lockdowns, if not the world
Probably SAGE read PB every hour, to check my latest mood swing. Hence the new restrictions this week, and Sturgeon today, as I have grown slightly gloomier. I think I'm also responsible for the school closures in Denmark
Is the new attack line to call anyone you don't agree with a left winger. How boring.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
I've been called a non Tory despite being a member of the party for 23 years and helping countless Tory councillors and MPs get elected.
I have disagreed with you many times but at least you have an ideology and set of principles and you uphold an institution I am proud of, even though I despise much of what it has done. But that institution is dead.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Me, a leftwinger? I suppose it must seem like that from your perspecvtive.
Have you not been paying attention? Hospitalization numbers follow cases. And therefore case numbers matter, enormously.
Nope, for those double vaccinated and who have had their boosters the hospitalisation rate is near zero.
70% of the country has not had a booster. And most of them are now months from that 2nd jab
Meanwhile, see here:
“Omicron's formidable immune evasiveness: First report of a cluster of 7 cases in young people all with 3rd shots 1-2 months previously, high anti-spike antibody levels. Symptoms mild to moderate papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…”
Most of the most vulnerable over 50s have had their boosters.
Plus symptoms only 'mild to moderate' amongst young people proves the point
But here’s another thing.
That cluster of 7 people ALL had recent boosters and they are all young. All had mild to moderate illness
They didn’t go to hospital but if you read the thread they had enough bad symptoms for a week in bed
So if everyone gets this - even if 90% get it mildly - that means EVERYONE spends a week in bed at the same time
That sounds fun but, in reality, what does it mean? The economy will simply grind to a total stop. Complete. No workers
Yes. I'm surprised this seemingly facile point gets missed almost always.
Because a lot of people on here are not as clever as they think, and they allow their brains to get clouded by fear. I am naming no names, Topping and IanB2, so as to spare your blushes
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Me, a leftwinger? I suppose it must seem like that from your perspecvtive.
Have you not been paying attention? Hospitalization numbers follow cases. And therefore case numbers matter, enormously.
Nope, for those double vaccinated and who have had their boosters the hospitalisation rate is near zero.
Not low enough to keep the NHS clear.
You need to have a sense of social responsibility.
Yes enough to keep the NHS clear once most of us have had our boosters.
It is not about social responsibility, it is about your leftwing, statist agenda of control
It really isn't. It is about not making exemptions on the grounds of religion. Which hypocrisy really is the worst thing for religion anyway. One rule for us and our God.
Nope, it is a culture war on the religious. End of.
Carnyx's whole point was to shut down Christian church services at its most important festival of the year, even before a full lockdown
Where on earth did you learn your theology? It's the Crucifixion and the Resurrection that led to Redemption from Original Sin that is the crux (no pun intended).
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Me, a leftwinger? I suppose it must seem like that from your perspecvtive.
Have you not been paying attention? Hospitalization numbers follow cases. And therefore case numbers matter, enormously.
Nope, for those double vaccinated and who have had their boosters the hospitalisation rate is near zero.
70% of the country has not had a booster. And most of them are now months from that 2nd jab
Meanwhile, see here:
“Omicron's formidable immune evasiveness: First report of a cluster of 7 cases in young people all with 3rd shots 1-2 months previously, high anti-spike antibody levels. Symptoms mild to moderate papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…”
Most of the most vulnerable over 50s have had their boosters.
Plus symptoms only 'mild to moderate' amongst young people proves the point
But here’s another thing.
That cluster of 7 people ALL had recent boosters and they are all young. All had mild to moderate illness
They didn’t go to hospital but if you read the thread they had enough bad symptoms for a week in bed
So if everyone gets this - even if 90% get it mildly - that means EVERYONE spends a week in bed at the same time
That sounds fun but, in reality, what does it mean? The economy will simply grind to a total stop. Complete. No workers
Ah I see you are taking a sample size of seven to argue for a total lockdown meaning the economy grinds to a halt to prevent the economy grinding to a halt.
Gotit.
Some PBers give every impression of wanting another lockdown. They not actually desire that, but they present as if they do.
You keep saying the same shit. I assume its in part aimed at me. I lost my job and my mental health during lockdown and genuinely feared I would lose my parents. I can assure you that I have no desire for another lockdown. Zero. None.
What I want isn't the fucking point though is it? The real hysterics on the forum who have this primal Paisleyite response to Covid. NOOOOO SURRENDER. And you all keep saying its over, its done, no problem and yet here we are with the inevitable spike brewing. The one that you all crowed about the forrin all getting because they were stupid but we don't because Covid is over and good old Boris.
We're getting the spike. A few weeks later, but its here. The difference between us and the Germans (other flavours of forrin idiots who got it wrong are available) is that they had months of very low cases. Took the pressure off their health systems. We have had months and months and months of sustained c. 40k new cases per day with all the weight on the NHS that exerts.
Do I want to be right and you wrong? Fuck no, it would have been great if we'd smashed it. So its not "I told you so" and there is no joy in my heart, no satisfaction in being right. Its genuinely terrible. But being "hysterical" watching you and others prat yourselves with pray the pox away has not been fun.
We all need to drop this adversarial shit and hold hands. Its going to be a horrendous few months. Again.
Is the new attack line to call anyone you don't agree with a left winger. How boring.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
I've been called a non Tory despite being a member of the party for 23 years and helping countless Tory councillors and MPs get elected.
You voted LD at the last 2 general elections, now you literally are not a Tory, even pollsters would count you as a LD not a Tory
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
Leon has no grasp of the concept of complex adaptive systems. He doesn't seem to understand that his hysterical outpourings, day after day, have an effect on people – because there is no such thing as a closed network. In some small way he himself makes lockdowns more likely.
Desist.
Yes I do agree. But also he is like this (psychotherapists gown on) because the more hysterical he is on here the more people tell him not to be hysterical and hence he is given some balance in his life from sane people and can calm down and be reassured that the world won't end tomorrow whereas without it he would be left to the doomier side of Twitter.
Leon, your welcome.
You don't begin to grasp my power. As Anabobazina has pointed out, I, by myself, decide the entire national debate on Lockdowns, if not the world
Probably SAGE read PB every hour, to check my latest mood swing. Hence the new restrictions this week, and Sturgeon today, as I have grown slightly gloomier. I think I'm also responsible for the school closures in Denmark
The Omicron variant has the potential to “very substantially overwhelm the NHS” and cause up to 10,000 hospitalisations a day if it is as virulent as Delta, according to a leading scientist who helped shape Britain’s coronavirus lockdown strategy.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist from Imperial College London, said the UK was already experiencing a “very explosive wave of infection” from the new variant. This could lead to “quite an explosive wave of hospitalisations,” depending on the severity of disease caused by Omicron.
But Ferguson said: “Even the best case scenarios involve several-fold more admissions per day than we’re getting at the moment – we are at about 700 right now.”
The stark figure of 10,000 hospitalisations a day is more than double the current highest level, with 4,582 admissions on 12 January this year.
“If it’s as virulent as Delta” is just a ridiculous misuse of the word if, when we already know prior immunity is reducing severity even among those only infected and not jabbed.
There has been a slew of lab evidence this week too showing neutralising antibody action remains especially in boosted populations, and that T-cell action is almost completely unaffected by the Omicron mutations.
This is primary school level extrapolation based on getting out a ruler and pencil and seeing where the line ends up.
Some people are so messed up and warped now that they seem to have adopted a zero death mantra. Nobody can ever die, under any circumstances, ever again it seems.
That's utterly delusional. We need to be able to accept and live with death.
It's not a zero death mantra, it's avoiding needless deaths.
You are involved in a car crash that wasn't your fault, in normal circumstances you get prompt treatment, you live.
If the ambulances are overwhelmed and so is A&E then you're likely to die, you can understand why the PM is wanting to make sure large numbers of voters don't die needlessly.
FWIW if it was up to me I'd declare a jihad on antivaxxers/non vaxxed people.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
My double vaccinated ass strongly suspects I caught it at a religious gathering. Not sure your point makes sense. You are saying one risky activity takes precedence over another. Because Christmas.
You mean you weren’t protected by some kind of divine shield?
Indeed not. Since I believe in the non-existence of any supernatural being who can intervene in our lives, I wasn't wholly surprised.
Best not waste your life worshipping some being that can’t help you at all, then? Try becoming a catholic; you can lead whatever life you want provided that at the last minute you confess everything.
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
There is a lot of arguing about how virulent Omicron will be, but it might be better to think of not how bad it will be but how mild it would have to be for us to avoid a lockdown. Given how transmissible Omicron seems to be I think the virulence would have to be as low as seasonal flu for us to avoid a lockdown, and even if it is milder than Delta there seems no prospect of it being so mild for us to avoid a lot of deaths and illness amongst the unvaccinated.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Me, a leftwinger? I suppose it must seem like that from your perspecvtive.
Have you not been paying attention? Hospitalization numbers follow cases. And therefore case numbers matter, enormously.
Nope, for those double vaccinated and who have had their boosters the hospitalisation rate is near zero.
Not low enough to keep the NHS clear.
You need to have a sense of social responsibility.
Yes enough to keep the NHS clear once most of us have had our boosters.
It is not about social responsibility, it is about your leftwing, statist agenda of control
It really isn't. It is about not making exemptions on the grounds of religion. Which hypocrisy really is the worst thing for religion anyway. One rule for us and our God.
Nope, it is a culture war on the religious. End of.
Carnyx's whole point was to shut down Christian church services at its most important festival of the year, even before a full lockdown
Wouldn’t that be Easter? Crucifixion and resurrection and all that.
Christmas is a great inclusive festival within which the Christian bit gives us fantastic carols and rituals. As a non-believing but culturally Christian Englishman and choir member I’m a big fan, but it’s a shared festival, much more than Easter.
Indeed. The great tell is almost all other non wacko fundamentalists of other faiths celebrate Christmas in some shape or form. Even in countries with tiny Christian populations. It is the default mid-winter festival. Or Summer Down Under. Precious no- one secular celebrates Easter. Beyond a chocolate egg or a meal.
I don’t see the problem with Christians going to church. After all, if they die, they have eternal life. I just hope that when they get to Heaven, it’s not in eternal lockdown.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Me, a leftwinger? I suppose it must seem like that from your perspecvtive.
Have you not been paying attention? Hospitalization numbers follow cases. And therefore case numbers matter, enormously.
Nope, for those double vaccinated and who have had their boosters the hospitalisation rate is near zero.
Not low enough to keep the NHS clear.
You need to have a sense of social responsibility.
Yes enough to keep the NHS clear once most of us have had our boosters.
It is not about social responsibility, it is about your leftwing, statist agenda of control
It really isn't. It is about not making exemptions on the grounds of religion. Which hypocrisy really is the worst thing for religion anyway. One rule for us and our God.
Nope, it is a culture war on the religious. End of.
Carnyx's whole point was to shut down Christian church services at its most important festival of the year, even before a full lockdown
Where on earth did you learn your theology? It's the Crucifixion and the Resurrection that led to Redemption from Original Sin that is the crux (no pun intended).
And there would have been none of that if Christ had not been born in the first place!
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If it hits 800k a day then it hits 800k a day. That's 5.6 million people a week. Within a couple of months everyone has had it and life goes on because that's over and done with.
That's the only way to get through this now. It hits however it hits, the NHS copes as well as it can, vaccines do as much as they can, and anyone who dies is mourned but life goes on.
"Life goes on"
Well, yes. Except for those who die, obviously. They've gone on to your nirvanic ultimate freedom ...
What is your 18-month plan?
I don't have one. But if you were to ask me, if we have to, we should buy time. The more time we have, the more people vaxed. The more people boostered. The more treatment drugs we will have. The greater capability we will have to beat this sod. But only if we have to. I am not wedded to the idea of restrictions and lockdowns; neither am I wedded to ignoring the deaths that may occur if we try to go on as normal.
Hopefully Omicron won't be as bad as feared; there's even a possibility it might be relatively 'good' (if its effects are nowhere near as bad as Delta). But we cannot rely on that.
So what's your 18-month plan?
I'll say one thing: I'm blooming glad I don't have to make these decisions.
Indeed. That's up to Leon.
My 18-month plan is to take every day as it comes to monitor while being aware that "buying time" which sounds super sensible nevertheless has a toll on peoples' well-being. I genuinely think that before long people will be more willing to tolerate the virus than to have the PM stand up and confine them to their homes and ban children from school again.
Covid isn't the flu. But we are behaving as though 30,000 people a year didn't die from "flu & influenza" every year.
So will the NHS be overwhelmed? It might be pushed but we will have to wait and see.
Curtice: six polling companies have asked the public about the various ‘gatherings’ that took place last year, and ”the truth is that the polling numbers are not good for the Prime Minister”.
“The polls show that between two thirds and three quarters of people think that there was a party..and that includes well over half of people who voted Conservative in 2019”
“Similar proportions of people think that the rules were broken..this is very redolent of what happened during the Dominic Cummings affair”
“The really difficult issue that now faces the PM is that…people simply no longer believe what the PM is telling them”.
“This includes a significant proportion of people who voted for him to be Prime Minister in 2019”
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If it hits 800k a day then it hits 800k a day. That's 5.6 million people a week. Within a couple of months everyone has had it and life goes on because that's over and done with.
That's the only way to get through this now. It hits however it hits, the NHS copes as well as it can, vaccines do as much as they can, and anyone who dies is mourned but life goes on.
"Life goes on"
Well, yes. Except for those who die, obviously. They've gone on to your nirvanic ultimate freedom ...
What is your 18-month plan?
I don't have one. But if you were to ask me, if we have to, we should buy time. The more time we have, the more people vaxed. The more people boostered. The more treatment drugs we will have. The greater capability we will have to beat this sod. But only if we have to. I am not wedded to the idea of restrictions and lockdowns; neither am I wedded to ignoring the deaths that may occur if we try to go on as normal.
Hopefully Omicron won't be as bad as feared; there's even a possibility it might be relatively 'good' (if its effects are nowhere near as bad as Delta). But we cannot rely on that.
So what's your 18-month plan?
I'll say one thing: I'm blooming glad I don't have to make these decisions.
My 18-month plan is to do sod all. The virus hits whoever it hits we treat anyone we have the capacity to treat, we bury or cremate anyone who dies and life goes on.
We don't need more time to get more people vaccinated, everyone's already been vaccinated who wants to be. The vulnerable should have all been offered their booster by now too. If some antivaxxers get it and die then that's on them. If some of the vulnerable get it despite three jabs and die, then that's just the natural end of their life.
Seriously, who wants another lockdown? It's going to destroy my health and I won't be able to see my counsellor. But I do think it is starting to be unavoidable.
Your counsellor doesn't do Online? My missus does virtually nowt else these days. Seriously. Do some research now before it happens. BACP website is a good place to start. You really don't want to be cut adrift.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Where ought I, as a religiously observant left winger (in attendance 3 or.4 times a week on a 40 mile round trip on public transport), stand on this issue? Frankly. If your Faith needs exceptions made purely for its own convenience, then it isn't much of a Faith. And certainly is no example to the secular.
Blimey, that's a lot of church going. Are you a vicar ?
No. Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude. And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
The Omicron variant has the potential to “very substantially overwhelm the NHS” and cause up to 10,000 hospitalisations a day if it is as virulent as Delta, according to a leading scientist who helped shape Britain’s coronavirus lockdown strategy.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist from Imperial College London, said the UK was already experiencing a “very explosive wave of infection” from the new variant. This could lead to “quite an explosive wave of hospitalisations,” depending on the severity of disease caused by Omicron.
But Ferguson said: “Even the best case scenarios involve several-fold more admissions per day than we’re getting at the moment – we are at about 700 right now.”
The stark figure of 10,000 hospitalisations a day is more than double the current highest level, with 4,582 admissions on 12 January this year.
“If it’s as virulent as Delta” is just a ridiculous misuse of the word if, when we already know prior immunity is reducing severity even among those only infected and not jabbed.
There has been a slew of lab evidence this week too showing neutralising antibody action remains especially in boosted populations, and that T-cell action is almost completely unaffected by the Omicron mutations.
This is primary school level extrapolation based on getting out a ruler and pencil and seeing where the line ends up.
Indeed. Ferguson and Edmunds just can't help themselves.
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
"Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.
I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.
It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.
How about go fuck yourself.
There's a start without asterisks.
I think I have made my views quite clear and I am grateful that you should have responded to me after telling me you were going to ignore me. I can also live with you not responding to me.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
My double vaccinated ass strongly suspects I caught it at a religious service. Not sure your point makes sense.
I already said cases were irrelevant wherever you caught it.
Note you are not in hospital or dead
Well. Not yet. We'll see.
Of course, if you were, you wouldn't be posting here, would you? So HYUFD's logic fails.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
This makes sense. The healthcare systems were in a fragile state before Covid with each winter season worse than the previous one. A year and a half of Covid has put them under further strain and created a big backlog of treatment. Money has been poured into those systems to get through what was going to be grim winter anyway. But the assumption was that we were on the home straight for the pandemic. Now we're likely having to deal with a major additional wave, even if Omicron is no more extensive than Delta.
Some people are so messed up and warped now that they seem to have adopted a zero death mantra. Nobody can ever die, under any circumstances, ever again it seems.
That's utterly delusional. We need to be able to accept and live with death.
It's not a zero death mantra, it's avoiding needless deaths.
You are involved in a car crash that wasn't your fault, in normal circumstances you get prompt treatment, you live.
If the ambulances are overwhelmed and so is A&E then you're likely to die, you can understand why the PM is wanting to make sure large numbers of voters don't die needlessly.
FWIW if it was up to me I'd declare a jihad on antivaxxers/non vaxxed people.
Treat those in accidents and put the unvaccinated who get Covid on a waiting list.
Is the new attack line to call anyone you don't agree with a left winger. How boring.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
I've been called a non Tory despite being a member of the party for 23 years and helping countless Tory councillors and MPs get elected.
You voted LD at the last 2 general elections, now you literally are not a Tory, even pollsters would count you as a LD not a Tory
Absolutely. When people say they will vote Tory, the pollsters check the value of their house or the latitude of their address. If it is not expensive enough or too northerly they get marked as a non-Tory.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Where ought I, as a religiously observant left winger (in attendance 3 or.4 times a week on a 40 mile round trip on public transport), stand on this issue? Frankly. If your Faith needs exceptions made purely for its own convenience, then it isn't much of a Faith. And certainly is no example to the secular.
Blimey, that's a lot of church going. Are you a vicar ?
No. Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude. And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
A secret Corbyn worshipper!
Does he sacrifice vegan turkeys to his god? (Sorry Dixie, I couldn't resist.)
Edit: just for clarity, the sort of mock turkey made out of soy etc. Not turkeys fed on tofu etc.
Is the new attack line to call anyone you don't agree with a left winger. How boring.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
I've been called a non Tory despite being a member of the party for 23 years and helping countless Tory councillors and MPs get elected.
You voted LD at the last 2 general elections, now you literally are not a Tory, even pollsters would count you as a LD not a Tory
Absolutely. When people say they will vote Tory, the pollsters check the value of their house or the latitude of their address. If it is not expensive enough or too northerly they get marked as a non-Tory.
If they voted Tory in 2019 they are counted as a Tory regardless of their class or social status.
If they voted LD in 2019 they are not a Tory even if a high earning, home owning professional like TSE
This feels exactly how it felt pre-lockdown last year. Very eery
Just been out and about doing some pre-Christmas shopping on my day off.
Plenty of people about - trains and tubes busy (and a notable increase in mask wearing).
I think people are determined to make the best of Christmas - yes, they will take precautions and one of the messages from our team lunch discussion wasn't that people were afraid to meet up but they didn't want to get infected so close to Christmas which would prevent them seeing their families who are, let's be honest, more important than work colleagues or acquaintances.
It was the inability to be with loved ones (and families) that wrecked Christmas 2020 for so many.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If there is another full lockdown there will be a full civil war in the Tory party, already almost a third of Tory MPs are ready to vote against Plan B.
I would think even more than half of Tory MPs would vote against another full lockdown and that really would be the end of Boris
Wouldn't even be able to rely on the DUP, would he?
I'm laughing even at the (unlikely) possibility of it.
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
"Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.
I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.
It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.
How about go fuck yourself.
There's a start without asterisks.
I think I have made my views quite clear and I am grateful that you should have responded to me after telling me you were going to ignore me. I can also live with you not responding to me.
Haven't you got some mice in Xinjiang to save?
Calm
Down
I'm perfectly calm. Sanctimonious meta-commentators ("If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.") irritate the fuck out of me, however.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Where ought I, as a religiously observant left winger (in attendance 3 or.4 times a week on a 40 mile round trip on public transport), stand on this issue? Frankly. If your Faith needs exceptions made purely for its own convenience, then it isn't much of a Faith. And certainly is no example to the secular.
Blimey, that's a lot of church going. Are you a vicar ?
No. Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude. And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
Not even that. I notice the assumption that I'm not merely a leftie but also secular. All I've said about religion is that I don't think it should be broight into politics - least of all in the Erastian C of E way where the UK (really England) is a postmediaeval theocracy in spirit and still to some extent in fact. I could be a Free Presbyterian or a Quaker or a Muslim or a Congregationalist for all HYFD knows.
Anyone left of Thatcher is now a communist, that's the pit that one member has fallen into.
A mirror images of the Corbynites for whom everyone is a Tory. Apart from themselves and maybe one friend. Who is suspected of being a splitter.
In fairness, Sir Keir 'Storming' Starmer still commands a net negative, although I agree that much progress has been made. Meanwhile, Bozza racing to the bottom.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Me, a leftwinger? I suppose it must seem like that from your perspecvtive.
Have you not been paying attention? Hospitalization numbers follow cases. And therefore case numbers matter, enormously.
Nope, for those double vaccinated and who have had their boosters the hospitalisation rate is near zero.
Not low enough to keep the NHS clear.
You need to have a sense of social responsibility.
Yes enough to keep the NHS clear once most of us have had our boosters.
It is not about social responsibility, it is about your leftwing, statist agenda of control
It really isn't. It is about not making exemptions on the grounds of religion. Which hypocrisy really is the worst thing for religion anyway. One rule for us and our God.
Nope, it is a culture war on the religious. End of.
Carnyx's whole point was to shut down Christian church services at its most important festival of the year, even before a full lockdown
Where on earth did you learn your theology? It's the Crucifixion and the Resurrection that led to Redemption from Original Sin that is the crux (no pun intended).
And there would have been none of that if Christ had not been born in the first place!
But it was the teaching and dying that counted. A baby is merely potential.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.
August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.
A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If it hits 800k a day then it hits 800k a day. That's 5.6 million people a week. Within a couple of months everyone has had it and life goes on because that's over and done with.
That's the only way to get through this now. It hits however it hits, the NHS copes as well as it can, vaccines do as much as they can, and anyone who dies is mourned but life goes on.
"Life goes on"
Well, yes. Except for those who die, obviously. They've gone on to your nirvanic ultimate freedom ...
What is your 18-month plan?
I don't have one. But if you were to ask me, if we have to, we should buy time. The more time we have, the more people vaxed. The more people boostered. The more treatment drugs we will have. The greater capability we will have to beat this sod. But only if we have to. I am not wedded to the idea of restrictions and lockdowns; neither am I wedded to ignoring the deaths that may occur if we try to go on as normal.
Hopefully Omicron won't be as bad as feared; there's even a possibility it might be relatively 'good' (if its effects are nowhere near as bad as Delta). But we cannot rely on that.
So what's your 18-month plan?
I'll say one thing: I'm blooming glad I don't have to make these decisions.
My 18-month plan is to do sod all. The virus hits whoever it hits we treat anyone we have the capacity to treat, we bury or cremate anyone who dies and life goes on.
We don't need more time to get more people vaccinated, everyone's already been vaccinated who wants to be. The vulnerable should have all been offered their booster by now too. If some antivaxxers get it and die then that's on them. If some of the vulnerable get it despite three jabs and die, then that's just the natural end of their life.
No restrictions, just live as best as we can.
I strongly sympathise with this position. But read @TSE's comment below. HMG is scared that the NHS will actually collapse, not just creak and strain. People will die in hospital carparks, morgues will need extra ovens, ambulances will shriek - in vain - through the night
What government will be able to resist total lockdown IF that happens? I can't see any PM having the brutal ruthlessness to say Fuck it, keep calm, go back to work. Can you?
Even tho that might well be the only long term option.
Also the government will have the new vaccines and therapies as a carrot to induce us to stay in our wardrobes. "Just three more months and we can let you out"
In fairness, Sir Keir 'Storming' Starmer still commands a net negative, although I agree that much progress has been made. Meanwhile, Bozza racing to the bottom.
How does it compare with say Brown vs Cameron, or Ed M vs Cameron, say?
Who cares about the bloody wallpaper or the cheese and wine parties.
OMICRON THE EATER OF NARRATIVES is here to devour these pathetic agendas. Boris is going nowhere because in about 3 weeks we will be huddled under Hungerford Bridge gnawing on raw weasels, and no one will give a tiny tiny fuck
Rats. Weasels is the menu under that bridge at Lechlade.
Besides that, weasels are far better raw, they go dry if cooked - unless pan fried. Stoat though, that’s a different kettle of fish, I’d definitely braise a stoat in Guinness. In fact Stoat in Stout is speciality at my dinner parties.
Have to say though Leon, beneath a dear bit of ramping, you are right news has so much less Boris bashing today I am pleased to say. Wallpaper gate hardly mentioned and only to say Geet has received assurances and is about to exonerate Boris again. Every where is Omicron Omicron Omicron it’s the biggest news story I agree
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that we may be facing "a potential tsunami of infections", citing a sharp rise in Scotland's coronavirus infections.
In her weekly press conference today, Ms Sturgeon said: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing, indeed we may be starting to experience, a potential tsunami of infections."
"It underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting,” Ms Sturgeon added. She continued: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new omicron variant.
"Omicron is going to very quickly overtake delta as the common strain in Scotland... as early as the very beginning of next week," she added.
I would take this seriously if she had suggested cancelling Christmas church services.
On no grounds whatsoever should Christmas church services be cancelled unless pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and most shops are also shut over the Christmas holiday period until the New Year too.
However we should avoid that, our last resort should be vaxports for physical attendance at all the above now, not another lockdown
Lots of people singing all together is not found in the other venues. So church services have an additional hazard over abd above the other places.
It is found in theatres and nightclubs etc. And the key point of Christmas is religious for the likes of me so it would be an outrageous denial of liberty for the double vaccinated like me to be denied attendance at churches on the most important Christian festival of the Year.
We would fight it all the way and rightly so
One person speaking on stage is not the same as sitting where everyone is singing. That is a huge difference. And you are claiming a sectarian right to engage in a known disease-spreading activity.
You are the leftwing, secular enemy in the culture war.
You singled out churches because of your ideological agenda. Most of us have been double vaccinated now and given their older demographic most church attendees and church choirs will have had their boosters too.
We will not give in to you, we will fight you all the way!
I didn't say C of E did I?
I'd say exactly the same thing about a Secular Society singsong or a Plymouth Brethren conventicle as your ideologically chosen sect with its political agenda. Or a performance of Oh what a lovely war.
You have an ideological leftwing agenda to shut down Christmas, again.
Most church attendees by Christmas day will have been double vaccinated and had their boosters, denial of church attendance and choirs and carols would be denial of religious freedom and a secular declaration of cultural war on the religious.
I didn'ty say anything about carols or religion. I was talking about spreading disease. If you can't have a religious service withoout spreading disease, you really need to look again at your plans.
Cases are irrelevant if you have had your boosters and been double jabbed.
If cases are all you care about then go full lockdown this Christmas and destroy the economy too.
This is now a matter of pure ideology and liberty not science.
Secular leftwingers like you who want to shut down religious services and private businesses and hugely expand state power again and conservatives like me and libertarians who want to preserve religious freedom and keep our economy open! It is now just the next stage in the culture wars.
Where ought I, as a religiously observant left winger (in attendance 3 or.4 times a week on a 40 mile round trip on public transport), stand on this issue? Frankly. If your Faith needs exceptions made purely for its own convenience, then it isn't much of a Faith. And certainly is no example to the secular.
Blimey, that's a lot of church going. Are you a vicar ?
No. Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude. And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
Not even that. I notice the assumption that I'm not merely a leftie but also secular. All I've said about religion is that I don't think it should be broight into politics - least of all in the Erastian C of E way where the UK (really England) is a postmediaeval theocracy in spirit and still to some extent in fact. I could be a Free Presbyterian or a Quaker or a Muslim or a Congregationalist for all HYFD knows.
Anyone left of Thatcher is now a communist, that's the pit that one member has fallen into.
A mirror images of the Corbynites for whom everyone is a Tory. Apart from themselves and maybe one friend. Who is suspected of being a splitter.
The dying days of a cult are always the same. And that is what we are seeing.
The parallels between Corbyn and Johnson are extraordinary.
The Omicron variant has the potential to “very substantially overwhelm the NHS” and cause up to 10,000 hospitalisations a day if it is as virulent as Delta, according to a leading scientist who helped shape Britain’s coronavirus lockdown strategy.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist from Imperial College London, said the UK was already experiencing a “very explosive wave of infection” from the new variant. This could lead to “quite an explosive wave of hospitalisations,” depending on the severity of disease caused by Omicron.
But Ferguson said: “Even the best case scenarios involve several-fold more admissions per day than we’re getting at the moment – we are at about 700 right now.”
The stark figure of 10,000 hospitalisations a day is more than double the current highest level, with 4,582 admissions on 12 January this year.
Alternatively, don’t treat any Covid sufferers in hospital. Reopen the hospitals to all the cancer, heart disease, hip replacement, etc, patients, and leave Covid patients at home until they recover or die. Sorry if it sounds cruel, but the current system is cruel to all those suffering on waiting lists for reasons not of their making.
I am going to propose that without the vaccines, the polls would have been tied for the last year. Johnson was never popular and neither were the Tories.
The clinical director Jason Leitch pointed out the attack rate of Omicron was that if 100 people were in the room and there was a single case, at least 50 people would get it.
If this is the level of transmission, no lockdown etc will stop it.
If that is true I don’t see how they can do anything BUT lock us all down very hard. Every office, shop, pub, cafe, house party, dinner party, church service, mosque prayer, concert, is a superspreader
So why haven’t they gone straight to Hard Lockdown?
1. They fear the terrible economic and social damage before Xmas and they are praying for a miracle on “mildness”
2. They now accept lockdowns aren’t enough. It’s here and it will hit us all
Calm yourself.
Can we all take a step back from the repeated "Leon is hysterical" stuff. Based on the reported figures we are in deep shit. That isn't me trying to justify or even welcome another lockdown (as suggested on the last thread) - we do not want that.
But it is what it is, and in the harsh light of day we're facing a meltdown in the NHS. If we do get this Tsunami of cases it doesn't matter that Omicron is no worse than or even milder than Delta - the sheer numbers infected skyrockets hospitalisation or death.
So what do we do? I think I agree with the comments that a lockdown isn't going to contain it - not that we can realistically hope to implement one even if wanted.
Either way, I am off to that London tomorrow. Drink and party. Whilst we still can.
Not yet we're not. We might be but we're not now. We are in fact a long way from that. Let us see how it progresses. As for Leon (and you? Hadn't noticed), would it be helpful if I said Omicron isn't going to affect us in any way whatsoever and there will be precisely no impact on health or NHS services.
Would be ridiculous, right? Because as it stands we don't know what it will do. Will its seeming increased transmissability overwhelm its supposed mildness, or vice versa we just don't know so indulging Leon's hysteria is bad for his health to start with and adds precisely nothing to the debate.
But we DO know. We now have lots of data. The evidence for immune escape is unquestioned. The evidence for greater admissibility is unquestioned. The evidence for mildness v virulence is out there but fiercely disputed
Sure if you want to twiddle your thumbs and talk about something else, to make yourself feel better, knock yourself out
But this is a site for political and general speculation and we will speculate on the ongoing global health crisis, the worst in a century, now clearly entering an ominous new phase
Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.
We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.
I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.
Thank god for Steve Baker et al.
If it hits 800k a day then it hits 800k a day. That's 5.6 million people a week. Within a couple of months everyone has had it and life goes on because that's over and done with.
That's the only way to get through this now. It hits however it hits, the NHS copes as well as it can, vaccines do as much as they can, and anyone who dies is mourned but life goes on.
"Life goes on"
Well, yes. Except for those who die, obviously. They've gone on to your nirvanic ultimate freedom ...
What is your 18-month plan?
I don't have one. But if you were to ask me, if we have to, we should buy time. The more time we have, the more people vaxed. The more people boostered. The more treatment drugs we will have. The greater capability we will have to beat this sod. But only if we have to. I am not wedded to the idea of restrictions and lockdowns; neither am I wedded to ignoring the deaths that may occur if we try to go on as normal.
Hopefully Omicron won't be as bad as feared; there's even a possibility it might be relatively 'good' (if its effects are nowhere near as bad as Delta). But we cannot rely on that.
So what's your 18-month plan?
I'll say one thing: I'm blooming glad I don't have to make these decisions.
My 18-month plan is to do sod all. The virus hits whoever it hits we treat anyone we have the capacity to treat, we bury or cremate anyone who dies and life goes on.
We don't need more time to get more people vaccinated, everyone's already been vaccinated who wants to be. The vulnerable should have all been offered their booster by now too. If some antivaxxers get it and die then that's on them. If some of the vulnerable get it despite three jabs and die, then that's just the natural end of their life.
No restrictions, just live as best as we can.
I strongly sympathise with this position. But read @TSE's comment below. HMG is scared that the NHS will actually collapse, not just creak and strain. People will die in hospital carparks, morgues will need extra ovens, ambulances will shriek - in vain - through the night
What government will be able to resist total lockdown IF that happens? I can't see any PM having the brutal ruthlessness to say Fuck it, keep calm, go back to work. Can you?
Even tho that might well be the only long term option.
Also the government will have the new vaccines and therapies as a carrot to induce us to stay in our wardrobes. "Just three more months and we can let you out"
That will be the same attitude every time there is a new variant until everyone has had their boosters.
We may as well write off Christmas and Winter as locked down for evermore if that is the attitude and write off half the economy with it!
Now in the indoor waiting area. 46th on the waiting list.
Meanwhile at the walk in centre next door they’re waltzing in and out in no time.
They could at least serve up some hot towels with Cremant and bread rolls (if it’s Pfizer) / Krug grande Cuvee and caviar on blinis (if it’s Moderna).
I had Moderna yesterday and have been feeling ropey all day, with body aches and general fatigue. But, it's very manageable with paracetamol and nothing like AZ1, which kept me up all night with a fever.
My pharmacist advised me to take two paracetamol immediately after being jabbed – and that was good advice. I slept very well last night and should shrug the whole thing off by tomorrow I hope.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.
August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.
A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
Absolutely and I really feel for him. It must be awful, unbelievably so.
The government imo has contributed greatly (I will stop short of saying intentionally) to the anxiety and mental health damage of millions of people for largely political reasons. ie they have thought about how it will all "play" rather than the totality of peoples' mental, physical health.
It can't go on. I don't want one person to die that shouldn't die but we simply cannot have the continued shadow of these restrictions or the threat of them.
We never were back at normality. That was the lie of the summer.
Many people were back at normality. The country as a whole was not: the NHS was still under pressure, people were still dying, etc, etc. But many people did not choose to see any of that; and fair enough, in a way. I was pretty much back to 'normal'; the only exception being that I wore a mask when going into shops or public enclosed spaces. And that was my choice.
Lockdowns are an evil. Restrictions are terrible. But a failing health service is terrible, and deaths evil. We have to balance these awful things out; some people weight heavily one way; others the other.
I’m accused of being in love with lockdowns. Which with my mental health issues is clearly absurd. I don’t want a lockdown, I just am struggling to see another outcome.
I can - omicron causes a lot of cases of people with mild disease, thanks for vaccination (including boosters for the most at risk - done already), and recovery from infection (estimated to be 10-30 million of us). Hopsitals and deaths don't surge, and by March the future looks good. Why is that so implausible?
I can envisage this too. There are mixed signals about Omicron. Unfortunately the bad signals are outweighing the good ones at this point. Omicron may not be apocalyptic, but it will likely extend the active phase of the pandemic with a further major wave. Which is bad in itself.
Downing Street has denied there are plans to introduce further Covid restrictions in England.
The prime minister's spokesman says: "There are no plans to go beyond where we are", but adds "we will act if necessary".
----
Don't believe anything until it is official denied.
You seem desperate for there to be another lockdown.
Not at all. I said below, I think it will be ineffective. And even WFH is messing with my new opportunity, and we will suppose to be hiring a lot in January.
I am just seeing it in the tea leaves. Sturgeon, Drakeford, Ferguson.....they are all coming out and saying this is very bad, we need to do more. It feels again just like every other lockdown, Sturgeon and Drakeford are in on the same calls, they nudge towards harder restrictions, Ferguson talks to the press / SAGE minutes are leaked, government say nothing to see at the moment, and then it comes.
Comments
As for OMICRON THE CANDID, I think a return to Lockdown (meaningful sense) is unlikely. What I can foresee is a protracted period of restrictions, pitched so as not to open the door to large scale government financial support of people & businesses.
Everyone dies eventually. Get over it. Stop being terrified of death, there are fates worse than death.
The only issue is furlough,
I would think even more than half of Tory MPs would vote against another full lockdown and that really would be the end of Boris
*the party he is still denying took place...
It were done quickly
I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.
It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.
.
Just a bit irate at the "hour and a half on a Sunday is utterly sacrosanct. Just as long as it doesn't inconvenience any other aspect of my life in any way" attitude.
And I'm not a Christian. So it isn't Church.
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
To my mind there is no left and right wing anymore, there are those that believe Boris Johnson is fit for office and those that don't. I am glad to have been consistently on the latter wing.
The Omicron variant has the potential to “very substantially overwhelm the NHS” and cause up to 10,000 hospitalisations a day if it is as virulent as Delta, according to a leading scientist who helped shape Britain’s coronavirus lockdown strategy.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist from Imperial College London, said the UK was already experiencing a “very explosive wave of infection” from the new variant. This could lead to “quite an explosive wave of hospitalisations,” depending on the severity of disease caused by Omicron.
But Ferguson said: “Even the best case scenarios involve several-fold more admissions per day than we’re getting at the moment – we are at about 700 right now.”
The stark figure of 10,000 hospitalisations a day is more than double the current highest level, with 4,582 admissions on 12 January this year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/omicron-could-overwhelm-nhs-if-virulent-as-delta-neil-ferguson-says
Lockdown incoming....
That's utterly delusional. We need to be able to accept and live with death.
There's a start without asterisks.
I think I have made my views quite clear and I am grateful that you should have responded to me after telling me you were going to ignore me. I can also live with you not responding to me.
Haven't you got some mice in Xinjiang to save?
For once I am actually on the Government's side, they were right to put restrictions in and they acted quickly. They have my credit for that.
Probably SAGE read PB every hour, to check my latest mood swing. Hence the new restrictions this week, and Sturgeon today, as I have grown slightly gloomier. I think I'm also responsible for the school closures in Denmark
Hopefully Omicron won't be as bad as feared; there's even a possibility it might be relatively 'good' (if its effects are nowhere near as bad as Delta). But we cannot rely on that.
So what's your 18-month plan?
I'll say one thing: I'm blooming glad I don't have to make these decisions.
What I want isn't the fucking point though is it? The real hysterics on the forum who have this primal Paisleyite response to Covid. NOOOOO SURRENDER. And you all keep saying its over, its done, no problem and yet here we are with the inevitable spike brewing. The one that you all crowed about the forrin all getting because they were stupid but we don't because Covid is over and good old Boris.
We're getting the spike. A few weeks later, but its here. The difference between us and the Germans (other flavours of forrin idiots who got it wrong are available) is that they had months of very low cases. Took the pressure off their health systems. We have had months and months and months of sustained c. 40k new cases per day with all the weight on the NHS that exerts.
Do I want to be right and you wrong? Fuck no, it would have been great if we'd smashed it. So its not "I told you so" and there is no joy in my heart, no satisfaction in being right. Its genuinely terrible. But being "hysterical" watching you and others prat yourselves with pray the pox away has not been fun.
We all need to drop this adversarial shit and hold hands. Its going to be a horrendous few months. Again.
There has been a slew of lab evidence this week too showing neutralising antibody action remains especially in boosted populations, and that T-cell action is almost completely unaffected by the Omicron mutations.
This is primary school level extrapolation based on getting out a ruler and pencil and seeing where the line ends up.
You are involved in a car crash that wasn't your fault, in normal circumstances you get prompt treatment, you live.
If the ambulances are overwhelmed and so is A&E then you're likely to die, you can understand why the PM is wanting to make sure large numbers of voters don't die needlessly.
FWIW if it was up to me I'd declare a jihad on antivaxxers/non vaxxed people.
The prime minister's spokesman says: "There are no plans to go beyond where we are", but adds "we will act if necessary".
----
Don't believe anything until it is official denied.
BoJo now almost as hated as Corbyn
Rishi Sunak: -3
Keir Starmer: -14
Boris Johnson: -42
Priti Patel: -47
Liz Truss: -22 (50% don't know)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/12/10/boris-johnsons-favourability-has-dropped-all-time-?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=favourability https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1469319411228200962/photo/1
Boris Johnson’s net favourability has dropped to an all-time low of -42
Favourable: 24% (-6)
Unfavourable: 66% (+5)
(Changes from 18 Nov)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/12/10/boris-johnsons-favourability-has-dropped-all-time-?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=favourability https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1469319401178607631/photo/1
Starmer is going to win and win big at this rate
My 18-month plan is to take every day as it comes to monitor while being aware that "buying time" which sounds super sensible nevertheless has a toll on peoples' well-being. I genuinely think that before long people will be more willing to tolerate the virus than to have the PM stand up and confine them to their homes and ban children from school again.
Covid isn't the flu. But we are behaving as though 30,000 people a year didn't die from "flu & influenza" every year.
So will the NHS be overwhelmed? It might be pushed but we will have to wait and see.
“The polls show that between two thirds and three quarters of people think that there was a party..and that includes well over half of people who voted Conservative in 2019”
“Similar proportions of people think that the rules were broken..this is very redolent of what happened during the Dominic Cummings affair”
“The really difficult issue that now faces the PM is that…people simply no longer believe what the PM is telling them”.
“This includes a significant proportion of people who voted for him to be Prime Minister in 2019”
Rishi Sunak: -3
Keir Starmer: -14
Boris Johnson: -42
Priti Patel: -47
Liz Truss: -22
Sunak above Starmer though now, even though both negative too
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1469319411228200962?s=20
We don't need more time to get more people vaccinated, everyone's already been vaccinated who wants to be. The vulnerable should have all been offered their booster by now too. If some antivaxxers get it and die then that's on them. If some of the vulnerable get it despite three jabs and die, then that's just the natural end of their life.
No restrictions, just live as best as we can.
My missus does virtually nowt else these days.
Seriously. Do some research now before it happens. BACP website is a good place to start.
You really don't want to be cut adrift.
So many here insisted for a while Starmer was hated, the truth is that he's never been particular unpopular and he has recovered.
Down
It's bad.
Meanwhile at the walk in centre next door they’re waltzing in and out in no time.
They could at least serve up some hot towels with Cremant and bread rolls (if it’s Pfizer) / Krug grande Cuvee and caviar on blinis (if it’s Moderna).
Edit: just for clarity, the sort of mock turkey made out of soy etc. Not turkeys fed on tofu etc.
Ah well, Starmer is crap etc
If they voted LD in 2019 they are not a Tory even if a high earning, home owning professional like TSE
Plenty of people about - trains and tubes busy (and a notable increase in mask wearing).
I think people are determined to make the best of Christmas - yes, they will take precautions and one of the messages from our team lunch discussion wasn't that people were afraid to meet up but they didn't want to get infected so close to Christmas which would prevent them seeing their families who are, let's be honest, more important than work colleagues or acquaintances.
It was the inability to be with loved ones (and families) that wrecked Christmas 2020 for so many.
I'm laughing even at the (unlikely) possibility of it.
August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.
A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
What government will be able to resist total lockdown IF that happens? I can't see any PM having the brutal ruthlessness to say Fuck it, keep calm, go back to work. Can you?
Even tho that might well be the only long term option.
Also the government will have the new vaccines and therapies as a carrot to induce us to stay in our wardrobes. "Just three more months and we can let you out"
It is Truss who I would not consider and she is worse than Starmer on approval while Sunak is ahead of Starmer
Have to say though Leon, beneath a dear bit of ramping, you are right news has so much less Boris bashing today I am pleased to say. Wallpaper gate hardly mentioned and only to say Geet has received assurances and is about to exonerate Boris again. Every where is Omicron Omicron Omicron it’s the biggest news story I agree
The parallels between Corbyn and Johnson are extraordinary.
I am going to propose that without the vaccines, the polls would have been tied for the last year. Johnson was never popular and neither were the Tories.
We may as well write off Christmas and Winter as locked down for evermore if that is the attitude and write off half the economy with it!
Vaxports maybe, another lockdown, no
My pharmacist advised me to take two paracetamol immediately after being jabbed – and that was good advice. I slept very well last night and should shrug the whole thing off by tomorrow I hope.
The government imo has contributed greatly (I will stop short of saying intentionally) to the anxiety and mental health damage of millions of people for largely political reasons. ie they have thought about how it will all "play" rather than the totality of peoples' mental, physical health.
It can't go on. I don't want one person to die that shouldn't die but we simply cannot have the continued shadow of these restrictions or the threat of them.
I am just seeing it in the tea leaves. Sturgeon, Drakeford, Ferguson.....they are all coming out and saying this is very bad, we need to do more. It feels again just like every other lockdown, Sturgeon and Drakeford are in on the same calls, they nudge towards harder restrictions, Ferguson talks to the press / SAGE minutes are leaked, government say nothing to see at the moment, and then it comes.