politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight
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CNN trying to make something of the fact that Cruz will be using a teleprompter tonight. Could he be preparing a concession speech?
Meanwhile Sky has found a birther...0 -
With 23% in Virginia
Trump 37
Rubio 30
Cruz 18
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
Rubio winning CD 8, 3, and 7.0 -
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
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Sky interviewing voluble citizen who thinks neither Obama nor Cruz are NBCs.
Cut off by Brit reporter who knows shit...0 -
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.0 -
13/246RodCrosby said:
Kasich gains maybe 7 delegates.Speedy said:First results from Vermont
Trump 38
Kasich 29
Rubio 17
http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/
These first results look a lot like the opinion polls.
Trump 37.5
Kasich 260 -
You really think Dave will make it to 2019 ? I guess that's the point of difference, I think he's gone in 12 - 18 months regardless, like we saw with Blair, once you say you're going power slips from you quickly.Tissue_Price said:
In 2019? Obviously people will be using their opinion poll response to send a message right now. But the referendum will have faded in 3 years time (though of course to some it will still be defining).asjohnstone said:
Agree, when we get to the final two, the simple choice is,"who stood with me on the defining issue of the day?"SeanT said:
That's not how it works.HYUFD said:
The Tory leadership is effectively under AV, add up Osborne, May and Javid and Morgan's totals (all of whom back Remain) and you get to 49%, ahead of Boris' 43%SeanT said:
Did I not predict this? All BoJo has to do is get LEAVE over 40%, and put in a decent personal performance in euroref, and he will be leader and PMTheScreamingEagles said:
Quite the irony. Cameron's lamentable deal has scuppered his friend Osborne and gifted the leadership to his bitter rival. Or so it seems right now.
59% of members are for leave. As long as the leave candidate is a figure with stature, like Boris or Gove, they win every single time.
Again like Tony, I doubt Dave will be in full control of the timings.0 -
Updated Vermont exit poll
Kasich 31
Trump 300 -
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS0 -
Over the zero in VT the polls suggested...TheWhiteRabbit said:
13/246RodCrosby said:
Kasich gains maybe 7 delegates.Speedy said:First results from Vermont
Trump 38
Kasich 29
Rubio 17
http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/
These first results look a lot like the opinion polls.
Trump 37.5
Kasich 260 -
Fits oddly with the first results, we shall see.Speedy said:Updated Vermont exit poll
Kasich 31
Trump 300 -
D.C coming in for CNN.Tissue_Price said:
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS
Looks Rubio 45 Trump 20 in D.C.
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http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fits oddly with the first results, we shall see.Speedy said:Updated Vermont exit poll
Kasich 31
Trump 30
10% reporting
Trump has 10% lead0 -
I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VATissue_Price said:
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS
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33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html0 -
Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.Pulpstar said:
I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VATissue_Price said:
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS0 -
https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/704828450889031681Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
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That someone else wasn't me.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.Pulpstar said:
I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VATissue_Price said:
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS
Sadly.
Great spot!0 -
Just laid about £1k at 1.04. Gonna be staying up now I guess. I went to school in Alexandria in 1998 :-)Pong said:
That someone else wasn't me.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.Pulpstar said:
I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VATissue_Price said:
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS
Sadly.0 -
39% reported, 6.5% leadPong said:
That someone else wasn't me.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.Pulpstar said:
I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VATissue_Price said:
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS
Sadly.
Great spot!
Looks fairly solid to me - I cashed out for, er, 4 pence0 -
Virginia up to 40% counted already. Seems a bit faster than usual.0
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Blimey just topped up at 1.03 in VA.0
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Trump nearly unbackable now in VA. Either someone has better info or people are misreading the result so far.0
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What are we expecting 2 mins polls-close-wise? Mass.?0
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Arlington County 48% for Rubio so far - http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Locality/ARLINGTON COUNTY/Index.htmlLondonBob said:
https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/704828450889031681Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
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https://www.predictit.org/Market/1721/Who-will-win-the-2016-Virginia-Republican-primaryTissue_Price said:
Just laid about £1k at 1.04. Gonna be staying up now I guess. I went to school in Alexandria in 1998 :-)Pong said:
That someone else wasn't me.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.Pulpstar said:
I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VATissue_Price said:
It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Probably come out to match the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.TheWhiteRabbit said:
9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.Tissue_Price said:Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.
Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.
http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS
Sadly.0 -
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
CNN projects Alabama for Trump, Massachusetts, Tennessee.
Massachusetts too close on the Dem side.
Oklahoma to close but Cruz leading, Sanders leading too.0 -
Trump projected wins in Alabama, Massachusetts, Tennessee0
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Sanders projected small lead in Massachusetts.0
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It's 40% in now, 6.5% lead for Trump so far - far greater divergence now...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
Do we have a Texas exit poll?0
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Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
Projecting Georgia onto Alabama and Tennessee would imply Trump might go plus 50 and both Rubio and Cruz might struggle to get over 20.
Love the fact Carson has stayed in just to shaft Cruz back for his Iowa dirty tricks.0 -
This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.0
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Didn't we hear this in South Carolina?Speedy said:This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.
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Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.williamglenn said:
Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
I know, that's why I said exit polls.williamglenn said:
Didn't we hear this in South Carolina?Speedy said:This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.
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Terrible night for Rubio if he wins nothing and Cruz wins two.0
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Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.williamglenn said:
Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
Trump leads by 9% with 14% reported in Vermont0
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In Vermont with 14% in
Trump 35
Kasich 260 -
TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump leads by 9% with 14% reported in Vermont
Kasich needs 1.6% in the rest...TheWhiteRabbit said:Trump leads by 9% with 14% reported in Vermont
Divergence 10.6%0 -
36.67 vs 30.39 with 51,15% reportingSpeedy said:
Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.williamglenn said:
Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
Population 1.1 million, more than twice as many people as the next most populous VA county.Speedy said:
Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.williamglenn said:
Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
Needs 6.6% lead...TheWhiteRabbit said:
36.67 vs 30.39 with 51,15% reportingSpeedy said:
Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.williamglenn said:
Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
CNN exit poll Alabama
GOP
Trump 46
Rubio 20.5
Cruz 17
Carson 9
Kasich 4.5
Dems
Clinton 70
Sanders 26.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/al/Rep0 -
THey're 12% in from Fairfax though Rubio does have a 15% leadAndyJS said:
Population 1.1 million, more than twice as many people as the next most populous VA county.Speedy said:
Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.williamglenn said:
Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...RodCrosby said:
Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...Speedy said:33% in Virginia
Trump 36
Rubio 32
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
A 6% divergence.0 -
Well I am -£100 +£1700 in VA now. Come on Marco!0
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According to CNN Trump is 7% ahead in Virginia with 61% counted:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/va/Rep0 -
Close to the opinion polls.HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Alabama
GOP
Trump 46
Rubio 20.5
Cruz 17
Carson 9
Kasich 4.5
Dems
Clinton 70
Sanders 26.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/al/Rep0 -
If the exit poll understates Trump again he could be over 50%.RodCrosby said:
Close to the opinion polls.HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Alabama
GOP
Trump 46
Rubio 20.5
Cruz 17
Carson 9
Kasich 4.5
Dems
Clinton 70
Sanders 26.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/al/Rep0 -
2nd place needs 11%...AndyJS said:According to CNN Trump is 7% ahead in Virginia with 61% counted:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/va/Rep0 -
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I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.0
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Rubio will probably do an Iowa - look like he's winning but get a handful of f****** nothing by comparison.0
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CNN exit poll Massachusetts
GOP
Trump 47
Rubio 18
Kasich 16.5
Cruz 11.5
Carson 3.5
Dems
Clinton 45
Sanders 53
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ma/Rep
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But worse than opinion polls.AndyJS said:
We will see, as I said I'm not an optimist about opinion polls being more accurate than exit polls.
Though from the count so far looks like exit polls were defeated by the opinion polls.0 -
Sky discussion on NBC...0
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It's already 15% in - http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX COUNTY/Index.htmlAndyJS said:
Despite Fairfax being on just 4% reporting and a 15 point Rubio lead?Speedy said:I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.
Across the state - Trump 36.7, Rubio 30.2 at 57%.0 -
It's on 15% reported (at least - CNN seems ahead of the gov results) : http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX COUNTY/Index.htmlAndyJS said:
Despite Fairfax being on just 4% reporting and a 15 point Rubio lead?Speedy said:I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.
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Idiots all round displaying their ignorance...0
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Trump leads by 9%, 20% reported in Vermont.0
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CNN exit poll Oklahoma
GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5
Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/
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If Trump wins in Oklahoma City he wins Oklahoma.0
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Significantly better for Cruz than the polls.HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Oklahoma
GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5
Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/0 -
And Cruz is supposed to stand down for Rubio!HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Oklahoma
GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5
Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/0 -
Trump's ahead on the reported results so far (albeit only 1%).HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Oklahoma
GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 270 -
We have Oklahoma and Texas results.HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Oklahoma
GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5
Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/
Oklahoma 3% in
Trump 36
Cruz 29
Rubio 230 -
CNN exit poll Tennessee
GOP
Trump 41
Cruz 21
Rubio 20.5
Carson 9
Kasich 5
Dems
Clinton 61
Sanders 36
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tn/Rep0 -
Just checked how many votes were cast in previous GOP primaries in Fairfax county.
2012: 39,000
2008: 60,0000 -
Not far off the polls...HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Tennessee
GOP
Trump 41
Cruz 21
Rubio 20.5
Carson 9
Kasich 5
Dems
Clinton 61
Sanders 36
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tn/Rep0 -
Remember Polly's and friend's reaction when Boris won the first time, then multiple by a million....SeanT said:Having watched the John Oliver "takedown" of Trump, I want him to win the presidency. Just to see the liberal conniptions.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone0 -
I see actual vote numbers are coming in from Texas whilst the polls are still open.0
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The BBC will probably require therapy in the event of a Trump presidency - they are hardly bothering to conceal their hatred of him (and their love for Sanders)FrancisUrquhart said:
Remember Polly's and friend's reaction when Boris won the first time, then multiple by a million....SeanT said:Having watched the John Oliver "takedown" of Trump, I want him to win the presidency. Just to see the liberal conniptions.
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Yes, could see Cruz win Oklahoma, Arkansas and TexasRodCrosby said:
Significantly better for Cruz than the polls.HYUFD said:CNN exit poll Oklahoma
GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5
Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/0 -
Just when they have managed to finish therapy for the Tory win in 2015....it could push them over the edge again.oxfordsimon said:
The BBC will probably require therapy in the event of a Trump presidency - they are hardly bothering to conceal their hatred of him (and their love for Sanders)FrancisUrquhart said:
Remember Polly's and friend's reaction when Boris won the first time, then multiple by a million....SeanT said:Having watched the John Oliver "takedown" of Trump, I want him to win the presidency. Just to see the liberal conniptions.
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Vermont 24% reported, still a 9% lead for Trump0
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Trump will be happy enough to lose just Cruz's home state - and to the right opponentRodCrosby said:0
