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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight

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  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Perhaps it just doesn't say what you want it to say.

    More than likely
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh God its one of these prick tease exit polls.

    Percentage of one armed half black half latinos who are vegan who switched Democrat to republican?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh God its one of these prick tease exit polls.

    Told you. They do it every time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865

    Can you imagine the sort of redecoration job Trump would do if he wins keys to the White House....Gold plating everywhere...

    In fairness, the American Presidency seems to be pretty ostentatious in trappings already.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Can you imagine the sort of redecoration job Trump would do if he wins keys to the White House....Gold plating everywhere...

    Pimp my Oval Room.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Because there was high turnout in one of those near DC reasonably rich VA districts they leapt to the conclusion it must be good news for Sanders and Rubio !

    With analysis like that...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    50% angry in Texas
    47% angry in Georgia
    36% Virginia
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Trump's vote lol ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    In a related matter, Ivanka must be nailed on as the future CEO of the Trump Corporation, probably before November.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Can't they both lose?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    CNN desperately trying to spin for Rubio right now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    47% black vote in Alabama. Democrat race. Bernie will be massacred there then.
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Pulpstar said:

    47% black vote in Alabama. Democrat race. Bernie will be massacred there then.

    Same will be true in every Deep South state.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TNS is putting the SNP constituency vote as high as 60%:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    Fox being deliciously sarcastic about Trump. He has really ticked them off.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2016
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Christ.

    Not running, too late to get on the ballot.
    Not religious enough for the evangelical vote anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    How many healthcare product ads are there on US TV o_O
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    Newsnight making allegations involving plod and Paul Boateng.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    How many healthcare product ads are there on US TV o_O

    The freaky ones are the ones whose side-effects take a longer time than the advert. I'm currently on holiday in Canada but with US channels on satellite and saw one ad the other day which had so many side effects it took virtually the entire advert length and said "may cause death" about three times ... and that's an advert!

    The Cialis ones are funny though.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    surely not
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Man U could still do it mathematically I think !

    That'd be pretty funny.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944

    Pulpstar said:

    How many healthcare product ads are there on US TV o_O

    The freaky ones are the ones whose side-effects take a longer time than the advert. I'm currently on holiday in Canada but with US channels on satellite and saw one ad the other day which had so many side effects it took virtually the entire advert length and said "may cause death" about three times ... and that's an advert!
    And while they rattle through the dire warnings the video is always of some smiling happy consumer grinning from ear to ear.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Pulpstar said:

    How many healthcare product ads are there on US TV o_O

    The freaky ones are the ones whose side-effects take a longer time than the advert. I'm currently on holiday in Canada but with US channels on satellite and saw one ad the other day which had so many side effects it took virtually the entire advert length and said "may cause death" about three times ... and that's an advert!
    And while they rattle through the dire warnings the video is always of some smiling happy consumer grinning from ear to ear.
    Always outside in the sunshine or something like that too. Like that makes you ignore the fact you've just said could lead to stroke, heart attack or death.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.
    To be honest I fancy Spurs but 6/1 for City is ridiculous
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Pulpstar said:

    How many healthcare product ads are there on US TV o_O

    The freaky ones are the ones whose side-effects take a longer time than the advert. I'm currently on holiday in Canada but with US channels on satellite and saw one ad the other day which had so many side effects it took virtually the entire advert length and said "may cause death" about three times ... and that's an advert!
    And while they rattle through the dire warnings the video is always of some smiling happy consumer grinning from ear to ear.
    My favourite ads from the debate were:

    lots of people offering the IRA (or was than "an" IRA) to me

    an all-American antivirus saying it was unpatriotic/unsafe to choose a competitor's product created in, er, Germany and Israel...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    n.b. DecisionDeskHq up

    when do we get the first actual results?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.
    To be honest I fancy Spurs but 6/1 for City is ridiculous
    Sounds about right to me, they are fourth and quite some way off the pace.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Newsnight making allegations involving plod and Paul Boateng.

    Please elaborate
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited March 2016
    www.redcopperpan.com

    Spacex launch scrubbed: Winds too high.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Newsnight making allegations involving plod and Paul Boateng.

    Please elaborate
    Doesn't look that big:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35695665
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016

    Newsnight making allegations involving plod and Paul Boateng.

    Please elaborate
    It is rather a complex story and I think best to be cautious. Basically a paedo ring operated in Lambeth (that isn't news). However, a particular paedophile was under investigation both by the council and the police, but those investigations were suddenly dropped. The police officer in charge was taken off the case. The padeophile then went on to commit further offenses.

    Newsnight are querying who decided to sanction all of this and have stated that Boateng, who was Home Office at the time, knew the individual, and had visited the home that served as the centre for the abuse and went on outings. It was also claimed that he phoned the council official looking into the paedophile (and who had discovered he had a previous conviction).

    He denies knowing the person or visiting the home or going on outings. He also denies phoning the council official.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    Faith will be rewarded!

    As a Chelsea fan the last thing I want is Spurs to win the league, and I understand the false dawns but this is different. Pochetino is the best manager around by some distance, the other contenders are all flaky. Just hold your nerve and it's yours.

    If you are wondering why have said that but backed City, it's only because of the value, I reckon it is a great trading bet at worst.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Deafbloke said:

    I'd think very carefully before I presumed to describe an International Treaty as 'incredibly badly drafted'. Perhaps it just doesn't say what you want it to say.

    This is too tedious, but when you've found, as you claimed, the bit of the agreement which supports what you wrote on the previous thread, let me know:

    "The UK is an EC Member state per the agreement, until the agreement is changed. Whether or not it is actually a member of the EU or EFTA makes no difference to the agreement".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    Newsnight testing to destruction how many times they can get KKK and Trump in the same sentence...now over to tomorrow's weather where tonight we will be doing the temperatures in degrees Kelvin, K for short, and we will start with New York city, at the Trump Tower, where it will be 283 K, K, K..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    What do we think the Trump odds for Prez and RepNom when tonight's results are in?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    Faith will be rewarded!

    As a Chelsea fan the last thing I want is Spurs to win the league, and I understand the false dawns but this is different. Pochetino is the best manager around by some distance, the other contenders are all flaky. Just hold your nerve and it's yours.

    If you are wondering why have said that but backed City, it's only because of the value, I reckon it is a great trading bet at worst.
    It was a much better performance by Leicester tonight, loads of chances but poor finishing on several occasions. A great game to watch despite the result. We never do well against the baggies at home. Berahinio was poor tonight and we missed Kante. We are still 3 points clear at the top.

    I don't think Arsenal will win the League, they are not the side that they were, or Man City. Spurs look likely but I think it will go to the wire.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    What do we think the Trump odds for Prez and RepNom when tonight's results are in?

    A couple of second places, Rubio will be into 4.5
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944
    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    Faith will be rewarded!

    As a Chelsea fan the last thing I want is Spurs to win the league, and I understand the false dawns but this is different. Pochetino is the best manager around by some distance, the other contenders are all flaky. Just hold your nerve and it's yours.

    If you are wondering why have said that but backed City, it's only because of the value, I reckon it is a great trading bet at worst.
    It was a much better performance by Leicester tonight, loads of chances but poor finishing on several occasions. A great game to watch despite the result. We never do well against the baggies at home. Berahinio was poor tonight and we missed Kante. We are still 3 points clear at the top.

    I don't think Arsenal will win the League, they are not the side that they were, or Man City. Spurs look likely but I think it will go to the wire.

    1. Spurs
    2. Leicester
    3. Arsenal
    4. Man City

    That's my top four.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    What do we think the Trump odds for Prez and RepNom when tonight's results are in?

    Dunno, lower I hope !
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Newsnight testing to destruction how many times they can get KKK and Trump in the same sentence...now over to tomorrow's weather where tonight we will be doing the temperatures in degrees Kelvin, K for short, and we will start with New York city, at the Trump Tower, where it will be 283 K, K, K..

    My entry is:

    Trump's KKK trump trumps KKK's Trump trump k? k? k?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    What do we think the Trump odds for Prez and RepNom when tonight's results are in?

    A couple of second places, Rubio will be into 4.5
    If you think that's possible, you may be better off laying Hillary than backing Rubio (or laying trump)

    She's basically 0% risk right now.

    All upside.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    edited March 2016

    Deafbloke said:

    I'd think very carefully before I presumed to describe an International Treaty as 'incredibly badly drafted'. Perhaps it just doesn't say what you want it to say.

    This is too tedious, but when you've found, as you claimed, the bit of the agreement which supports what you wrote on the previous thread, let me know:

    "The UK is an EC Member state per the agreement, until the agreement is changed. Whether or not it is actually a member of the EU or EFTA makes no difference to the agreement".
    THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY,
    THE KINGDOM OF BELGIUM,
    THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
    THE CZECH REPUBLIC,
    THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK,
    THE FEDERAL REPUBLICOF GERMANY,
    THE REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA,
    IRELAND,
    THE HELLENIC REPUBLIC,
    THE KINGDOM OF SPAIN,
    THE FRENCH REPUBLIC,
    THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA,
    THE ITALIAN REPUBLIC,
    THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS,
    THE REPUBLIC OF LATVIA,
    THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA,
    THE GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG,
    HUNGARY,
    THE REPUBLIC OF MALTA,
    THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS,
    THE REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA,
    THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND,
    THE PORTUGUESE REPUBLIC,
    ROMANIA
    THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA,
    THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC,
    THE REPUBLIC OF FINLAND,
    THE KINGDOM OF SWEDEN,
    THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND,
    AND
    ICELAND,
    THE PRINCIPALITY OF LIECHTENSTEIN,
    THE KINGDOM OF NORWAY
    hereinafter referred to as the CONTRACTING PARTIES;
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm back.

    The snippets from the exit polls look good for Trump overall with this exception:

    Fox News exit poll, dissatisfied if Trump wins:

    Arkansas 50
    Georgia 46
    Tennessee 41
    Virginia 52
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pong said:

    What do we think the Trump odds for Prez and RepNom when tonight's results are in?

    A couple of second places, Rubio will be into 4.5
    If you think that's possible, you may be better off laying Hillary than backing Rubio (or laying trump)

    She's basically 0% risk right now.

    All upside.
    I do not think that's right - I was satirising the market moves on Rubio after previous failures.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    rcs1000 said:

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    Faith will be rewarded!

    As a Chelsea fan the last thing I want is Spurs to win the league, and I understand the false dawns but this is different. Pochetino is the best manager around by some distance, the other contenders are all flaky. Just hold your nerve and it's yours.

    If you are wondering why have said that but backed City, it's only because of the value, I reckon it is a great trading bet at worst.
    It was a much better performance by Leicester tonight, loads of chances but poor finishing on several occasions. A great game to watch despite the result. We never do well against the baggies at home. Berahinio was poor tonight and we missed Kante. We are still 3 points clear at the top.

    I don't think Arsenal will win the League, they are not the side that they were, or Man City. Spurs look likely but I think it will go to the wire.

    1. Spurs
    2. Leicester
    3. Arsenal
    4. Man City

    That's my top four.
    Spurs goal difference looks healthy
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    The thing is though that, in my view, Trump has room to improve on Romney's performance with white men in some of the big Rust Belt swing states. Romney's vote was depressed by the perception he didn't care about the average joe's job, and was just a heartless mega-rich CEO. Trump, for whatever reason, is much more able to pitch himself as in touch with the common man.

    I still think we could have the bizarre sight this November of Clinton holding traditional Republican-leaning states like Virginia and Florida on the back of ethnic minorities, while Trump takes traditionally Democrat states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, maybe even Michigan thanks to a big swing with white voters.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Fox News exit poll, Virginia

    Late deciders (20%)

    Rubio 38
    Cruz 18
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    Faith will be rewarded!

    As a Chelsea fan the last thing I want is Spurs to win the league, and I understand the false dawns but this is different. Pochetino is the best manager around by some distance, the other contenders are all flaky. Just hold your nerve and it's yours.

    If you are wondering why have said that but backed City, it's only because of the value, I reckon it is a great trading bet at worst.
    It was a much better performance by Leicester tonight, loads of chances but poor finishing on several occasions. A great game to watch despite the result. We never do well against the baggies at home. Berahinio was poor tonight and we missed Kante. We are still 3 points clear at the top.

    I don't think Arsenal will win the League, they are not the side that they were, or Man City. Spurs look likely but I think it will go to the wire.

    1. Spurs
    2. Leicester
    3. Arsenal
    4. Man City

    That's my top four.
    Spurs goal difference looks healthy
    The correlation between goal difference and points is very strong!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    Yes, Trump will crush women with white men and the white working class and will probably get to 45%+ but as you say it will be very difficult for him to get to 50%+1 in today's 21st century America
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Speedy said:

    Fox News exit poll, Virginia

    Late deciders (20%)

    Rubio 38
    Cruz 18

    Trump??
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    Faith will be rewarded!

    As a Chelsea fan the last thing I want is Spurs to win the league, and I understand the false dawns but this is different. Pochetino is the best manager around by some distance, the other contenders are all flaky. Just hold your nerve and it's yours.

    If you are wondering why have said that but backed City, it's only because of the value, I reckon it is a great trading bet at worst.
    It was a much better performance by Leicester tonight, loads of chances but poor finishing on several occasions. A great game to watch despite the result. We never do well against the baggies at home. Berahinio was poor tonight and we missed Kante. We are still 3 points clear at the top.

    I don't think Arsenal will win the League, they are not the side that they were, or Man City. Spurs look likely but I think it will go to the wire.

    1. Spurs
    2. Leicester
    3. Arsenal
    4. Man City

    That's my top four.
    Spurs goal difference looks healthy
    The correlation between goal difference and points is very strong!
    Do you think Leicester can hold on? Would love them to do it. Give the rest of us some hope that it can be done!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Speedy said:

    Fox News exit poll, Virginia

    Late deciders (20%)

    Rubio 38
    Cruz 18

    Trump??
    They didn't show or I missed it.
    Got it.

    Rubio 38
    Cruz 18
    Kasich 17
    Trump 15

    Similar pattern in Georgia and Oklahoma, but late deciders are only 1 in 5.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Fox News exit poll, Virginia

    Late deciders (20%)

    Rubio 38
    Cruz 18

    Trump??
    They didn't show or I missed it.
    If it's 44, that would be a tendentious way to present the data.

    Edit: It's not. :smile:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Fox News exit poll, Virginia

    Late deciders (20%)

    Rubio 38
    Cruz 18

    Trump??
    They didn't show or I missed it.
    Got it.

    Rubio 38
    Cruz 18
    Kasich 17
    Trump 15

    Similar pattern in Georgia and Oklahoma, but they are only 1 in 5.
    Previous results in SC indicate this isn't enough, although clearly better for Rubio than not.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    I'm back.

    The snippets from the exit polls look good for Trump overall with this exception:

    Fox News exit poll, dissatisfied if Trump wins:

    Arkansas 50
    Georgia 46
    Tennessee 41
    Virginia 52

    I voted today and then went to one of my local lunch haunts. Of the 7 folks I talked with, all but one (gay Obama loving server who voted for Sanders) all voted for Trump. I was surprised by a couple of them, major evangelicals.
  • At what odds do PBers reckon Trump + 12.5% is value with Betfair to win Texas?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    I'm back.

    The snippets from the exit polls look good for Trump overall with this exception:

    Fox News exit poll, dissatisfied if Trump wins:

    Arkansas 50
    Georgia 46
    Tennessee 41
    Virginia 52

    I voted today and then went to one of my local lunch haunts. Of the 7 folks I talked with, all but one (gay Obama loving server who voted for Sanders) all voted for Trump. I was surprised by a couple of them, major evangelicals.
    Where are you based again?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    At what odds do PBers reckon Trump + 12.5% is value with Betfair to win Texas?

    It was trading at an unattractive 1.2 (difficult to call risk outweighs that). 1.5 I would have gone right in.
  • DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 70

    Deafbloke said:

    I'd think very carefully before I presumed to describe an International Treaty as 'incredibly badly drafted'. Perhaps it just doesn't say what you want it to say.

    This is too tedious, but when you've found, as you claimed, the bit of the agreement which supports what you wrote on the previous thread, let me know:

    "The UK is an EC Member state per the agreement, until the agreement is changed. Whether or not it is actually a member of the EU or EFTA makes no difference to the agreement".
    The Contacting Parties as defined on pages 4-5, and Article 2 (c).

    You're a bluffer, and you've been caught well out of your depth here.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Rubio is predicting a win in Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Virginia:

    Joe Scarborough ‏@JoeNBC 16m16 minutes ago
    TEAM MARCO privately predicting wins in Minnesota, Virginia and Oklahoma. TEAM CRUZ expecting a stronger than expected night. #SuperTuesday
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944

    At what odds do PBers reckon Trump + 12.5% is value with Betfair to win Texas?

    1.3?
  • At what odds do PBers reckon Trump + 12.5% is value with Betfair to win Texas?

    It was trading at an unattractive 1.2 (difficult to call risk outweighs that). 1.5 I would have gone right in.
    I thought around the 1.5 mark, maybe a little less - I can't see him losing by double digits, but what do i know from 4,500 miles away?
  • OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    But but but this time it might be different...

    It never is... 3 defeats in a row are almost inevitable yet still I hope and hope for once the inevitable won't happen.

    I'd bite your hand off for a point tomorrow. Spanners will be so up for stopping us going top in their last game there against us..
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Speedy said:

    Rubio is predicting a win in Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Virginia:

    Joe Scarborough ‏@JoeNBC 16m16 minutes ago
    TEAM MARCO privately predicting wins in Minnesota, Virginia and Oklahoma. TEAM CRUZ expecting a stronger than expected night. #SuperTuesday

    hahahahahahahahhahaha
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    It's unlikely minority voters will turn out in the same numbers they did for Obama, especially younger minority voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    The thing is though that, in my view, Trump has room to improve on Romney's performance with white men in some of the big Rust Belt swing states. Romney's vote was depressed by the perception he didn't care about the average joe's job, and was just a heartless mega-rich CEO. Trump, for whatever reason, is much more able to pitch himself as in touch with the common man.

    I still think we could have the bizarre sight this November of Clinton holding traditional Republican-leaning states like Virginia and Florida on the back of ethnic minorities, while Trump takes traditionally Democrat states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, maybe even Michigan thanks to a big swing with white voters.
    I agree to an extent, though I think it is more likely Trump takes Florida and loses Wisconsin and Michigan, Virginia should go to Clinton, Pennsylvania is an outside chance for Trump
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    Speedy said:

    Rubio is predicting a win in Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Virginia:

    Joe Scarborough ‏@JoeNBC 16m16 minutes ago
    TEAM MARCO privately predicting wins in Minnesota, Virginia and Oklahoma. TEAM CRUZ expecting a stronger than expected night. #SuperTuesday

    Caution: They define a win as coming in third place.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN is talking about projecting states already.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Speedy said:

    CNN is talking about projecting states already.

    If you took the odds, you could hand Cruz Texas and Trump most of the rest right now. Only Missouri, I think, does Rubio stand any change of winning.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    Faith will be rewarded!

    As a Chelsea fan the last thing I want is Spurs to win the league, and I understand the false dawns but this is different. Pochetino is the best manager around by some distance, the other contenders are all flaky. Just hold your nerve and it's yours.

    If you are wondering why have said that but backed City, it's only because of the value, I reckon it is a great trading bet at worst.
    It was a much better performance by Leicester tonight, loads of chances but poor finishing on several occasions. A great game to watch despite the result. We never do well against the baggies at home. Berahinio was poor tonight and we missed Kante. We are still 3 points clear at the top.

    I don't think Arsenal will win the League, they are not the side that they were, or Man City. Spurs look likely but I think it will go to the wire.

    1. Spurs
    2. Leicester
    3. Arsenal
    4. Man City

    That's my top four.
    Spurs goal difference looks healthy
    The correlation between goal difference and points is very strong!
    Do you think Leicester can hold on? Would love them to do it. Give the rest of us some hope that it can be done!
    Yes. It was a very strong Leicester performance tonight, but West Brom did well with a good game plan. None of the top 4 are going to win every match.





  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    OMG Spurs are favs for the league best price 15/8, shorter than Leave.

    If they somehow manage to pull it off I hope to sober up for the party on June 24th.

    I backed City yesterday at 6/1, great price
    Can't have City, I'm afraid I still think Arsenal will sneak a win on saturday and go on to win the league, I'm conditioned to disappointment.

    As all true Spurs fans know, Arsenal will win the league. We'll lose tomorrow and on Saturday. This time the hope really will kill us.

    But but but this time it might be different...

    It never is... 3 defeats in a row are almost inevitable yet still I hope and hope for once the inevitable won't happen.

    I'd bite your hand off for a point tomorrow. Spanners will be so up for stopping us going top in their last game there against us..
    Difference is you now have a proper manager....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    NBC exit poll, S.Tuesday states, no college degree (40% of voters):

    Trump 54
    All others 44
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Speedy said:

    NBC exit poll, S.Tuesday states, no college degree (40% of voters):

    Trump 54
    All others 44

    Looks like Trump has errm Trumped them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    It's unlikely minority voters will turn out in the same numbers they did for Obama, especially younger minority voters.
    Against Trump Hispanics could turn out in even greater numbers, Hillary may not get as high a share of the black vote but the result in S Carolina showed she will still win it comfortably
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    NBC exit poll, S.Tuesday states, no college degree (40% of voters):

    Trump 54
    All others 44

    Looks like Trump has errm Trumped them.
    Depends a little on the makeup of "all others" there.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    NBC exit poll, S.Tuesday states, no college degree (40% of voters):

    Trump 54
    All others 44

    Looks like Trump has errm Trumped them.
    Edit, it's actually the internal composition, 54% of Trump's voters don't have a degree:

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/super-tuesday-exit-poll-results-who-voting-donald-trump-n529436?cid=sm_tw&hootPostID=dd69fbe0d9bdf39e1e761c8f0af70314
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    It's unlikely minority voters will turn out in the same numbers they did for Obama, especially younger minority voters.
    I agree. That being said, the Clinton campaign will run the "Mexicans coming here are rapists" clip again and again and again. That will not help him with Hispanics.
  • Words I've never expected to write in one sentence and which will surely only apply for 22 hours in my whole life. That is now.


    Spurs. Are. Favourites. To win the Premier league.


    That's me done. Box me up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    It's unlikely minority voters will turn out in the same numbers they did for Obama, especially younger minority voters.
    I agree. That being said, the Clinton campaign will run the "Mexicans coming here are rapists" clip again and again and again. That will not help him with Hispanics.
    You can put money on Trump getting a high profile Latino and a high profile Black endorsement. It won't be as simple for Hillary as running an attack ad and banking the votes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me, but are the reasons the pundits say Trump will lose to Clinton in November, are the same reasons he would never get the GOP nomination?

    It is just you, the GOP electorate is primarily angry white males so his nomination is not that surprising, in the general election the electorate will have far more Hispanics, blacks and women, all of which are more favourable to Hillary than Trump. It will be close but he is a last hurrah for America's past and the GOP's golden days, the next Republican president needs to represent America's future (in my opinion George P Bush in 2024)
    I think that analysis is spot on. Trump will dominate white men (70%), and he'll do OK with white women, particularly those without a college education. But he's going to get slaughtered by everyone else.

    He's built a brilliant 40% strategy. But it's not clear yet if it's enough to get him to 50%.
    It's unlikely minority voters will turn out in the same numbers they did for Obama, especially younger minority voters.
    I agree. That being said, the Clinton campaign will run the "Mexicans coming here are rapists" clip again and again and again. That will not help him with Hispanics.
    You can put money on Trump getting a high profile Latino and a high profile Black endorsement. It won't be as simple for Hillary as running an attack ad and banking the votes.
    Once you've said something, you can never unsay it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2016


    It is rather a complex story and I think best to be cautious. Basically a paedo ring operated in Lambeth (that isn't news). However, a particular paedophile was under investigation both by the council and the police, but those investigations were suddenly dropped. The police officer in charge was taken off the case. The padeophile then went on to commit further offenses.

    Newsnight are querying who decided to sanction all of this and have stated that Boateng, who was Home Office at the time, knew the individual, and had visited the home that served as the centre for the abuse and went on outings. It was also claimed that he phoned the council official looking into the paedophile (and who had discovered he had a previous conviction).

    He denies knowing the person or visiting the home or going on outings. He also denies phoning the council official.


    This Paul Boateng?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/04/19/01/27B727F900000578-0-image-a-93_1429403385811.jpg

    That's Michael Jackson and Greville Janner, coming to the HoC to give him a birthday cake in 2002.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    Deafbloke said:

    The Contacting Parties as defined on pages 4-5, and Article 2 (c).

    You're a bluffer, and you've been caught well out of your depth here.

    Out of my depth? Really? Well, I can read, which you apparently can't.

    I didn't ask you for a list of the contracting parties. I asked you to support the statement you had made:

    "The UK is an EC Member state per the agreement, until the agreement is changed. Whether or not it is actually a member of the EU or EFTA makes no difference to the agreement"
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    CNN hinting that Vermont and Virginia will be competitive.

    Well according to the exit polls, Rubio closed the gap by 4 points using the late decider breakdown, but all the polls had Trump's lead way more than 4 points.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Deafbloke said:

    The Contacting Parties as defined on pages 4-5, and Article 2 (c).

    You're a bluffer, and you've been caught well out of your depth here.

    Out of my depth? Really? Well, I can read, which you apparently can't.
    I don't understand why we have this argument so often.

    If it were a commercial contract, you'd be reliant on the understanding of the parties at the time it was entered into - something you're unlikely to get a clear picture of before the inside of a courtroom. (Unless, of course, the parties agreed.)

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Speedy said:

    CNN hinting that Vermont and Virginia will be competitive.

    They have to pick somewhere.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Am I the only one who finds betfair on Windows 10 / Microsoft edge completely hopeless?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited March 2016
    Tonight's bets:

    Laid Trump at 1.08 in VA, Nate has Rubio at a 29% chance there anyway. (£4 liability)
    Also laid £200 of Clinton at 1.56 as per @Pong.
    Laid Cruz in Texas £5 to win £50.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pong said:

    Am I the only one who finds betfair on Windows 10 / Microsoft edge completely hopeless?

    Haven't used Windows since 1995 so can't say.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Speedy said:

    CNN hinting that Vermont and Virginia will be competitive.

    Well according to the exit polls, Rubio closed the gap by 4 points using the late decider breakdown, but all the polls had Trump's lead way more than 4 points.

    Vermont?!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Andrew said:


    It is rather a complex story and I think best to be cautious. Basically a paedo ring operated in Lambeth (that isn't news). However, a particular paedophile was under investigation both by the council and the police, but those investigations were suddenly dropped. The police officer in charge was taken off the case. The padeophile then went on to commit further offenses.

    Newsnight are querying who decided to sanction all of this and have stated that Boateng, who was Home Office at the time, knew the individual, and had visited the home that served as the centre for the abuse and went on outings. It was also claimed that he phoned the council official looking into the paedophile (and who had discovered he had a previous conviction).

    He denies knowing the person or visiting the home or going on outings. He also denies phoning the council official.


    This Paul Boateng?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/04/19/01/27B727F900000578-0-image-a-93_1429403385811.jpg

    That's Michael Jackson and Greville Janner, coming to the HoC to give him a birthday cake in 2002.
    I didn't know this...

    Labour peer Lord Janner accused of child sex abuse wrote to Michael Jackson congratulating him on being cleared of molesting a child

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3123403/Labour-peer-Lord-Janner-accused-child-sex-abuse-wrote-Michael-Jackson-congratulating-cleared-molesting-child.html
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited March 2016
    Wanderer said:

    Speedy said:

    CNN hinting that Vermont and Virginia will be competitive.

    Well according to the exit polls, Rubio closed the gap by 4 points using the late decider breakdown, but all the polls had Trump's lead way more than 4 points.

    Vermont?!
    Only one poll at RealPolitics, Trump +15

    I feel like there will be a state with a surprise though such is the law of probability
This discussion has been closed.