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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight if the 11 Super Tuesday primaries go according to the polls
Texas is the one which will get the most focus because it is the home state of Ted Cruz. He has to win there to even have slim hopes of making it to the nomination.
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Though a good result for Cruz would be nice too.
Media MattersVerified account @mmfa 25m25 minutes ago
Trump surrogate says Fox News judge and 9/11 truther Andrew Napolitano is likely Trump's top pick for SCOTUS: http://mm4a.org/1XYu4c0
It could have been worse, he could have picked Judge Judy.
On the Dem side Massachusetts is the key. If Hillary wins that as well as the south the argument for Sanders continuing to play gets weak.
(Thank Allah for the Iowans)
No, I think there are enough catalysts already - the faulty design of the Euro without a consolidated debt market for the whole of the eurozone and the migrant crisis. The suggestion that people are going to lose confidence in the ability of negative interest rates to stimulate the economy certainly appeals to me, and closely related to that is confidence in government and namely confidence in sovereign debt.
There are enough other places in Europe where disgust is running high eg Austria, Cyprus and Greece, so this revulsion with the EU is far from being a solely British (or as some in Brussels would like to think a narrow small Englander view) preoccupation.
And that's the worry on the Dem side, that they might be doing the same mistake.
But the most important factor, at least for me, is the vested corporate interest in the media to keep Trump going all the way to the White House.
In the past a republican nominee only had Fox News on his side, Trump has everyone except some parts of Fox News and maybe NBC.
It will be very surprising for me if Trump beats Cruz in Texas.
I learned how to spell Massachusetts during my history degree (to anyone who thinks there is no tangible benefit to doing one).
Personally I think Cruz will win, but 10/1 is more than fair for Trump. It have cashed out at +14.5 each way
alas those are pounds, not thousands
Which means the 1.1 to lay is for sure a fair value punt.
Even if it doesn't win its one of those bets you just have to make
I leave you with this for the next 2-3 hours:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/huckabee-hearts-trump#.ifXy4on0l
My red on "others" is errm...
It won't be dominant.
Also please to have started a mini-run on Trump in Texas...
NJ used to be a bellwether, Trump could make it one again. The demographics add up for it.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_20000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party
Trump effect in Massachusetts.
I notice Louis Farrakhan has praised Trump whilst condemning HRC. Does that cancel out the Duke endorsement?
It's close to impossible for a republican to win N.J. in a presidential election.
And it has an unpopular republican governor that will make it even more difficult.
Until I see polling evidence I will laugh at such analysis as much as I laughed when I saw this in September:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/644555290126491649
And of course in historical terms we're all mostly doing pretty well
As for her policies the only thing I remember was her advocating shooting down Russian jets over Syria and other generic policies like regulation reform.
She never had a chance, I rated her as a female but less successful version of Mitt Romney.
Trump 4 America
One conclusion I have come to - there is no such word as arrogance in a US dictionary.
Thanks in advance!
(I'll get my coat)
If you wanted a simple interface
Scratch that.. it doesn't seem to be working (clicking on either of the boxes did nothing).
Clinton camp reportedly working on plan to defeat Trump.
Sounds like a terrible strategy.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/top-rubio-advisor-preparing-donors-for-dismal-super-tuesday-220046#ixzz41gWnRHWi
" Not everyone who attended left the meeting thinking the campaign had a workable plan to dethrone Trump as the party's expected nominee.
"It was a presentation that defied reality," said one Rubio backer. "They said their convention strategy was not contingent on winning any states... Even if you go to the [second ballot] why would anyone say Marco Rubio is the guy to give it to?" "
Trump is Einstein compared to his GOP competitors.
I'm off or else I will be really unprepared for the Super Tuesday AM marathon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPRfP_TEQ-g
1. "OK, so we'd be in material breach of the agreement, because we'd no longer be an 'EC member state', and therefore we'd violate a provision essential to the treaty. See, for example, Article 126:
The Agreement shall apply to the territories to which the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community is applied and under the conditions laid down in that Treaty , and to the territories of Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein and the Kingdom of Norway."
To state this is a 'material breach' is absurd. Article 126 is really about defining the parts of e.g. France that are outside of Europe to which the agreement will apply. The clue is the word 'territories', and the intention is to use the EEC territories definition of them. What it does not do is re-define the Contracting Parties.
2. "Presumably therefore, we'd be obliged to withdraw from the EEA treaty by invoking Article 127, in order to avoid being in material breach."
We can not possibly be compelled to give the Notice under this provision. The recourse for Treaty breaches is set out in the Treaty, as anyone would expect.
3. "What I think is clear is that the treaty is incredibly badly drafted,"
I'd think very carefully before I presumed to describe an International Treaty as 'incredibly badly drafted'. Perhaps it just doesn't say what you want it to say.