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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight

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  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

    Might lose Vermont, Oklahoma.
    In Vermont with 19% in

    Trump 36
    Kasich 27

    Oklahoma with 7% in

    Trump 34
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 25

    Bang on the opinion poll average.
    VT Kasich needs 2% in the rest

    OK Cruz needs 0.5% in the rest
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited March 2016
    1% in from Alabama, CNN projects Trump has won the state

    Trump 34.8%
    Rubio 23.1%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/al/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big divergence between Virginia results being reported by the Virginia election website and CNN.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cruz must be finished if he can't win in Texas or Oklahoma.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    1% in from Alabama, CNN projects Trump has won the state

    Trump 34.8%
    Rubio 23.1%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/al/

    Too early.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm ready to call Vermont for Trump.

    The exit polls look like they underestimated Trump again.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    Cruz must be finished if he can't win in Texas or Oklahoma.

    It very much looks like he will in Texas though
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump leads in Arkansas with the exit poll 34-30.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Trump projected to win Massachusetts 2% in

    Trump 44.3%
    Kasich 20.4%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ma/


    Dems

    Clinton 50.9%
    Sanders 48.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ma/Dem
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Sanders is winning more states than maybe expected buyt he's going to get swamped by GA delegates in particular.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Official VA page has Trump 4.4 points ahead with 70% of precincts reporting:

    http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Big divergence between Virginia results being reported by the Virginia election website and CNN.

    I think one is reporting % of precincts in, other % total vote. Either way, the Virginia.gov site is ahead.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Official VA page has Trump 4.4 points ahead with 70% of precincts reporting:

    http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

    CNN is up to 83% and a 7 point Trump lead.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Official VA page has Trump 4.4 points ahead with 70% of precincts reporting:

    http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

    CNN is up to 83% and a 7 point Trump lead.
    2nd place needs 34% lead in remaining...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    CNN exit poll Arkansas

    GOP
    Trump 34
    Cruz 30
    Rubio 25
    Kasich 3
    Carson 7

    Dems
    Clinton 64
    Sanders 34
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ar/Rep
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    31.3 % reporting in Vermont, the lead slightly lower at 8.8% for Trump... surely not enough of a dent being made now....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Rubio wins the "Late decider" state.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Sanders is winning more states than maybe expected buyt he's going to get swamped by GA delegates in particular.

    Also, even in the states he might win, he's not winning by enough.

    EVEN IF he squeaks out wins in Massachusetts and Oklahoma, it's nowhere enough to cancel out the delegates yielded to Clinton in the southern landslides.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Rubio wins the "Late decider" state.

    Fewer and fewer are late deciders though, in S.Carolina they where 40%, now they are 20%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    SeanT said:

    Looks like we might be one Very Dodgy Email or Creepy Clinton-Epstein Sex Revelation from a Trump Presidency.

    Depends if Biden then replaced Clinton, although I expect Clinton to stay in the race unless something major, it will be close but I say Clinton by about 1% helped by the minority and female vote
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Marco Rubio should drop out the race.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Rubio has fallen bellow 20 in Texas.
    Cruz bellow 20 in Alabama, Rubio very close to dropping bellow 20 there too, and in Georgia.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Marco Rubio should drop out the race.

    Yes please!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Marco Rubio should drop out the race.

    Was really hoping Kasich could win Vermont, for the hilarity of even him beating Rubio to a win.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    Pulpstar said:

    Marco Rubio should drop out the race.

    Carson could be the last one sleeping standing against Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sanders is winning more states than maybe expected buyt he's going to get swamped by GA delegates in particular.

    His relative success is symptomatic of Clinton's dislikeabilty tho. She isn't very enthusing. Trump could beat her, with a fair wind.
    Clinton is the Democratic Nixon, against Rubio she would probably lose, as Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy. Against Trump she should scrape home as Nixon scraped home against Humphrey
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Rubio 30k votes behind.

    I make him gaining 20,000 in Fairfax.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Oklahoma 13% in

    GOP
    Trump 32%
    Cruz 31.1%
    Rubio 23.4%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ok/

    Dems
    Sanders 48.1%
    Clinton 44%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ok/Dem
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    2500 Arlington

    The rest is a wash pretty much. Narrow win for Trump.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Rubio is leading in Arkansas, however only Little Rock is in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Rubio 30k votes behind.

    I make him gaining 20,000 in Fairfax.

    I agree with that, but 10k is small enough that it can't be called yet.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Vermont just 9% of the votes counted nearly two hours after polls closed!!!

    How can they be so much slower than Virginia, when the latter is like 4 times as big.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Tennessee projected for Trump

    19% in

    Trump 44.1%
    Cruz 21.4%
    Rubio 19.3%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/tn/Rep

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    You'd think Rubio would be in contention in states like Massachusetts and Vermont. Instead he's nowhere to be seen.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Virginia called for Trump - CNN
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN projects Trump wins Virginia.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    Tennessee projected for Trump

    19% in

    Trump 44.1%
    Cruz 21.4%
    Rubio 19.3%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/tn/Rep

    Cruz needs 5.3% elsewhere...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    You can feel the pain of the CNN bods....

    Is that Labour's election guru on CNN?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Danny565 said:

    Vermont just 9% of the votes counted nearly two hours after polls closed!!!

    How can they be so much slower than Virginia, when the latter is like 4 times as big.

    Vermont about 33% reported (by number of precincts; I don't know how much they vary)

    http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/

    Trump with comfortable lead
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    AndyJS said:

    You'd think Rubio would be in contention in states like Massachusetts and Vermont. Instead he's nowhere to be seen.

    Yet he's doing well in Arkansas. They must go for smarmy lawyers.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    You'd think Rubio would be in contention in states like Massachusetts and Vermont. Instead he's nowhere to be seen.

    Yet he's doing well in Arkansas. They must go for smarmy lawyers.
    Only in Little Rock.

    There is a pattern, Rubio wins the capitols but nothing else.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Vermont now 43% reported, Trump's lead down to 7.2% but still safe one would have thought.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016
    The phony has-been makes her empty speech...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Guardian doesn't want to call Virginia for Trump.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hillary needs to take some more throat lozenges before she goes on stage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    AndyJS said:

    The Guardian doesn't want to call Virginia for Trump.

    He can't win it. He gets 20k extra in fairfax but he needs 30k.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    AndyJS said:

    The Guardian doesn't want to call Virginia for Trump.

    Trump on for a landslide victory in Virginia then? :D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    AndyJS said:

    The Guardian doesn't want to call Virginia for Trump.

    Has the anti-Trump letter writing campaign started yet?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    AndyJS said:

    The Guardian doesn't want to call Virginia for Trump.

    They are probably having a collection breakdown.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm ready to call Oklahoma for Cruz.
    It's a very good night for Cruz.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Hillary: Country doesn't just belong to those at the top.

    Like errm
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Vermont now 43% reported, Trump's lead down to 7.2% but still safe one would have thought.

    2nd place needs 5.4%. Unlikely, but do-able.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    AndyJS said:

    The Guardian doesn't want to call Virginia for Trump.

    Looks fairly safe to me, tbh.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    Hillary needs to take some more throat lozenges before she goes on stage.

    She's nearly 70.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Her.

    Now she is repeating Trump's campaign slogan.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    Hillary - "We have to fill in!" Not one of the greatest political slogans.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Pong said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Guardian doesn't want to call Virginia for Trump.

    Looks fairly safe to me, tbh.
    A good value loser.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Dem Oklahoma is intersting - early results flatter Sanders, but is that enough for Clinton?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    williamglenn said:

    Hillary - "We have to fill in!" Not one of the greatest political slogans.

    How she is channeling the 60's...its all about love....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Rubio fading on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Clinton will catch up in OK due to OK county.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,418
    Pulpstar said:

    Her.

    Now she is repeating Trump's campaign slogan.

    "Hillary J. Clinton is calling for a total and complete shut-down of political slogans entering the election campaign .... " :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Hillary speaking in Miami 'Trying to divide America between us and them is wrong and we are not going to let it work!'
    http://news.sky.com/watch-live
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Rubio will struggle to get over the 20% barrier in Texas.
    He's doing terribly in rural areas.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Clinton will catch up in OK due to OK county.

    I hope so! But is it enough I wonder
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Now she's repeating Trump's stuff about cheating employees ! But less convincingly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Speedy said:

    Rubio will struggle to get over the 20% barrier in Texas.
    He's doing terribly in rural areas.

    God Bless rural America.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    Hillary - "We have to fill in!" Not one of the greatest political slogans.

    How she is channeling the 60's...its all about love....
    Channeling Sydney Greenstreet "There's not enough kindness in the world" (1944, The Mask of Dimitrios)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Rubio will struggle to get over the 20% barrier in Texas.
    He's doing terribly in rural areas.

    God Bless rural America.
    Interesting avatar. ;)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Now she's repeating Trump's stuff about cheating employees ! But less convincingly.

    Even when I like the content of what she's saying, it just somehow feels so....uninspiring.

    It always feels like she's just reading bullet points off of a Powerpoint.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sanders is winning more states than maybe expected buyt he's going to get swamped by GA delegates in particular.

    His relative success is symptomatic of Clinton's dislikeabilty tho. She isn't very enthusing. Trump could beat her, with a fair wind.
    Clinton is the Democratic Nixon, against Rubio she would probably lose, as Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy. Against Trump she should scrape home as Nixon scraped home against Humphrey
    That's a fair analysis. She'll probably be a better president than Obama. Not hard, in foreign policy. At least.

    The melancholy truth is that any US president is now tasked with managing relative American decline. America will go from being 50% of global GDP in 1945 to around 10-14% in 2024. A huge drop. This collapse can no longer be disguised.
    Yes, she is certainly much tougher than Obama. America will go into relative decline and will have to accept being the second largest economy behind China (although still ahead on gdp per capita). Abroad it is also being challenged by Russia in projection of power
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Cruz projected Texas winner.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Clinton will catch up in OK due to OK county.

    I hope so! But is it enough I wonder
    I doubt it.
    If it goes on I will call it for Sanders in a few minutes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Austin TX is a 3 way split at the moment. (Travis County).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Now she's repeating Trump's stuff about cheating employees ! But less convincingly.

    Even when I like the content of what she's saying, it just somehow feels so....uninspiring.

    It always feels like she's just reading bullet points off of a Powerpoint.
    Because she is.....

    Surely in a country of 300 million people there has to be better than these two pillocks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    I think Rubio gets over 20% actually, he'll get some votes in Dallas, Houston.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hillary's speech is all rights rights rights.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Arkansas 11% in

    GOP
    Trump 31.7%
    Rubio 30.5%
    Cruz 25.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ar/Rep
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    In Vermont with 48% in

    Trump 35
    Kasich 28.

    http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    CNN exit poll Texas

    GOP
    Cruz 39
    Trump 32.5
    Rubio 18.5
    Carson 4
    Kasich 3.5
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tx/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    This is better than her average speech actually. Not that that's a very high bar.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Speedy said:

    Hillary's speech is all rights rights rights.

    The word that comes to me...triangulate...triangulate...triangulate...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Rubio now speaking in Florida
    http://news.sky.com/watch-live
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    CNN exit poll Texas

    GOP
    Cruz 39
    Trump 32.5
    Rubio 18.5
    Carson 4
    Kasich 3.5
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tx/

    so it really is Rubio vs 20%
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    CNN exit poll Texas

    GOP
    Cruz 39
    Trump 32.5
    Rubio 18.5
    Carson 4
    Kasich 3.5
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tx/

    Not far off the polls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    HYUFD said:

    Rubio now speaking in Florida
    http://news.sky.com/watch-live

    He couldn't win Virginia. He's going to get less than 20% in Texas.

    He's terrible.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I don't see either Cruz or Rubio dropping out.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    CNN exit poll Texas

    GOP
    Cruz 39
    Trump 32.5
    Rubio 18.5
    Carson 4
    Kasich 3.5
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tx/

    White voters:
    Cruz 40, Trump 34, Rubio 17

    Hispanic voters:
    Cruz 31, Trump 28, Rubio 27
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    CNN exit poll Texas

    Democrats
    Clinton 60
    Sanders 38
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tx/Dem
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rubio now speaking in Florida
    http://news.sky.com/watch-live

    He couldn't win Virginia. He's going to get less than 20% in Texas.

    He's terrible.
    Yes, he is gone after the Florida primary in a fortnight
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pong said:

    I don't see either Cruz or Rubio dropping out.

    Cruz overperformed expectations by winning Oklahoma.
    Rubio overperformed in Virginia and Arkansas however he hasn't won anything yet tonight.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    CNN says Clinton ahead by ~2% in Massachusetts, Sanders ahead by ~10% in Oklahoma.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Rubio revealing he's more interested in some foreign country...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Rubio: My father was a bartender.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Ahaha They're booing Marco at the Cruz campaign

    His father was a bartender.

    How many fucking times has he come out with that.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Not an awful lot of net change on Betfair. Trump 1.30 for the nomination, Clinton 1.06. For next president, Clinton 1.57, Trump 3.85.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sanders is winning more states than maybe expected buyt he's going to get swamped by GA delegates in particular.

    His relative success is symptomatic of Clinton's dislikeabilty tho. She isn't very enthusing. Trump could beat her, with a fair wind.
    Clinton is the Democratic Nixon, against Rubio she would probably lose, as Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy. Against Trump she should scrape home as Nixon scraped home against Humphrey
    That's a fair analysis. She'll probably be a better president than Obama. Not hard, in foreign policy. At least.

    The melancholy truth is that any US president is now tasked with managing relative American decline. America will go from being 50% of global GDP in 1945 to around 10-14% in 2024. A huge drop. This collapse can no longer be disguised.
    Yes, she is certainly much tougher than Obama. America will go into relative decline and will have to accept being the second largest economy behind China (although still ahead on gdp per capita). Abroad it is also being challenged by Russia in projection of power
    This entire election seems emblematic of American decline. A second rate, do-nothing politician will become president on account of having ovaries and an ex-president for a husband, and because she will face a bonkers billionaire who inherited half his money and spent the rest on an awful pseudo-toupee.

    I mean, FFS. No wonder Putin is running rings around the West.

    It all feels very late Roman. Europe is the western Roman Empire, overrun by barbarians, America is Byzantium, still strong, but deeply strange and corrupt, and menaced by its own slow decay.
    There will be a relative decline but I would not go so far as to say it is ancient Rome and Constantinople as yet, more a levelling off of economic and political power
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:

    Rubio: My father was a bartender.

    I heard that in the background when CNN cut to a Cruz event.... at first I thought it was an impersonator parodying Rubio saying that, rather than Rubio himself :D
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Cruz will take Oklahoma, it looks like.

    So that's 2 states to Rubio's current 0.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Looks like Rubio will struggle to go above the 20% threshold in Tennessee as well.
This discussion has been closed.