CNN hinting that Vermont and Virginia will be competitive.
Well according to the exit polls, Rubio closed the gap by 4 points using the late decider breakdown, but all the polls had Trump's lead way more than 4 points.
Vermont?!
They said something like Kasich's campaign fancied their chances in Vermont....not sure if that was just wild optimism, though.
I don't understand why we have this argument so often.
We have it so often because some Leavers are immune to reason. The idea that we could unilaterally switch from being EU members, on one side of the agreement, to being an EEA/EFTA state, on the opposite side of the agreement, without the consent of the other 30 states involved, is so completely out with the fairies that you have to wonder at the sanity of anyone who suggests it.
CNN hinting that Vermont and Virginia will be competitive.
Well according to the exit polls, Rubio closed the gap by 4 points using the late decider breakdown, but all the polls had Trump's lead way more than 4 points.
I don't understand why we have this argument so often.
We have it so often because the Leavers are immune to reason. The idea that we could unilaterally switch from being EU members, on one side of the agreement, to being an EEA/EFTA state, on the opposite side of the agreement, without the consent of the other 30 states involved, is so completely out with the fairies that you have to wonder at the sanity of anyone who suggests it.
If you sign a contract that says "Mr. Nabavi and Mrs. Nabavi, hereinafter referred to as the Nabavis," and then get divorced, does that abrogate the contract?
CNN hinting that Vermont and Virginia will be competitive.
Well according to the exit polls, Rubio closed the gap by 4 points using the late decider breakdown, but all the polls had Trump's lead way more than 4 points.
Laid Trump at 1.08 in VA, Nate has Rubio at a 29% chance there anyway. (£4 liability) Also laid £200 of Clinton at 1.56 as per @Pong. Laid Cruz in Texas £5 to win £50.
That wasn't really a tip!
Just a very low risk way to take advantage of trump not sealing the deal tonight.
Laid Trump at 1.08 in VA, Nate has Rubio at a 29% chance there anyway. (£4 liability) Also laid £200 of Clinton at 1.56 as per @Pong. Laid Cruz in Texas £5 to win £50.
That wasn't really a tip!
Just a very low risk way to take advantage of trump not sealing the deal tonight.
The snippets from the exit polls look good for Trump overall with this exception:
Fox News exit poll, dissatisfied if Trump wins:
Arkansas 50 Georgia 46 Tennessee 41 Virginia 52
I voted today and then went to one of my local lunch haunts. Of the 7 folks I talked with, all but one (gay Obama loving server who voted for Sanders) all voted for Trump. I was surprised by a couple of them, major evangelicals.
What about yourself, if you don't mind telling us? Just curious.
Laid Trump at 1.08 in VA, Nate has Rubio at a 29% chance there anyway. (£4 liability) Also laid £200 of Clinton at 1.56 as per @Pong. Laid Cruz in Texas £5 to win £50.
That wasn't really a tip!
Just a very low risk way to take advantage of trump not sealing the deal tonight.
I'm pretty much all in on trump right now.
Nervous.
Should I reverse it at 1.55 ?
Surely its an OK move at this point ?
Personally I think it's very likely trump will meet or exceed expectations and tomorrow he'll be 3.25 - vs 1.5 for Hillary.
The Contacting Parties as defined on pages 4-5, and Article 2 (c).
You're a bluffer, and you've been caught well out of your depth here.
Out of my depth? Really? Well, I can read, which you apparently can't.
I didn't ask you for a list of the contracting parties. I asked you to support the statement you had made:
"The UK is an EC Member state per the agreement, until the agreement is changed. Whether or not it is actually a member of the EU or EFTA makes no difference to the agreement"
You clearly don't understand what a contract is. As William Glenn hopefully makes clear to you, you do not get out of one contract by annulling another.
I don't understand why we have this argument so often.
We have it so often because the Leavers are immune to reason. The idea that we could unilaterally switch from being EU members, on one side of the agreement, to being an EEA/EFTA state, on the opposite side of the agreement, without the consent of the other 30 states involved, is so completely out with the fairies that you have to wonder at the sanity of anyone who suggests it.
If you sign a contract that says "Mr. Nabavi and Mrs. Nabavi, hereinafter referred to as the Nabavis," and then get divorced, does that abrogate the contract?
No, but it equally doesn't mean that one of the Nabavis becomes signed up to the opposite side of the contract, becoming a tenant rather than the landlord or vice versa.
I don't understand why we have this argument so often.
We have it so often because the Leavers are immune to reason. The idea that we could unilaterally switch from being EU members, on one side of the agreement, to being an EEA/EFTA state, on the opposite side of the agreement, without the consent of the other 30 states involved, is so completely out with the fairies that you have to wonder at the sanity of anyone who suggests it.
If you sign a contract that says "Mr. Nabavi and Mrs. Nabavi, hereinafter referred to as the Nabavis," and then get divorced, does that abrogate the contract?
No, but it equally doesn't mean that one of the Nabavis becomes signed up to the opposite side of the contract, becoming a tenant rather than the landlord or vice versa.
Now we are getting somewhere. Britain leaving the EU has no direct impact on the EEA agreement.
Are CNN still doing their how many left handed White 18-25 farmers voted today style exit polling and after the break more crucial exit polling will be revealed...
Did I not predict this? All BoJo has to do is get LEAVE over 40%, and put in a decent personal performance in euroref, and he will be leader and PM
Quite the irony. Cameron's lamentable deal has scuppered his friend Osborne and gifted the leadership to his bitter rival. Or so it seems right now.
The Tory leadership is effectively under AV, add up Osborne, May and Javid and Morgan's totals (all of whom back Remain) and you get to 49%, ahead of Boris' 43%
How funny. And further tinkering with pensions will only erode support for the odious smirking Chancellor even further. As will the rumoured plans for the Associations.
Presumably Osborne will now be desperate to find any way to remove the membership from the process to elect the next party leader.
Did I not predict this? All BoJo has to do is get LEAVE over 40%, and put in a decent personal performance in euroref, and he will be leader and PM
Quite the irony. Cameron's lamentable deal has scuppered his friend Osborne and gifted the leadership to his bitter rival. Or so it seems right now.
The Tory leadership is effectively under AV, add up Osborne, May and Javid and Morgan's totals (all of whom back Remain) and you get to 49%, ahead of Boris' 43%
That's not how it works.
Agree, when we get to the final two, the simple choice is,"who stood with me on the defining issue of the day?"
59% of members are for leave. As long as the leave candidate is a figure with stature, like Boris or Gove, they win every single time.
Did I not predict this? All BoJo has to do is get LEAVE over 40%, and put in a decent personal performance in euroref, and he will be leader and PM
Quite the irony. Cameron's lamentable deal has scuppered his friend Osborne and gifted the leadership to his bitter rival. Or so it seems right now.
The Tory leadership is effectively under AV, add up Osborne, May and Javid and Morgan's totals (all of whom back Remain) and you get to 49%, ahead of Boris' 43%
That's not how it works.
It is, in a final round of Boris v Osborne, Osborne picks up much of May, Javid and Morgan's support amongst members. Johnson does lead Osborne head to head but it is narrower than on first preferences. Boris also needs to get enough MPs backing him to get into the final 2
why the f*** is he in Vermont tonight? not exactly ambitious?
Because he is happiest when preaching to the converted. In no way is he a credible candidate for the Presidency. He knows that. The Democrats know that. The Republicans know that.
His policy platform is not affordable - but he keeps talking about his grand pie-in-the-sky ideas that sound very positive until you have to actual pay for them.
He isn't being given the scrutiny because no-one is taking him seriously.
That is why he is staying at home - because it is easier to be in the bubble than confronting realities.
Did I not predict this? All BoJo has to do is get LEAVE over 40%, and put in a decent personal performance in euroref, and he will be leader and PM
Quite the irony. Cameron's lamentable deal has scuppered his friend Osborne and gifted the leadership to his bitter rival. Or so it seems right now.
The Tory leadership is effectively under AV, add up Osborne, May and Javid and Morgan's totals (all of whom back Remain) and you get to 49%, ahead of Boris' 43%
That's not how it works.
Agree, when we get to the final two, the simple choice is,"who stood with me on the defining issue of the day?"
59% of members are for leave. As long as the leave candidate is a figure with stature, like Boris or Gove, they win every single time.
In 2019? Obviously people will be using their opinion poll response to send a message right now. But the referendum will have faded in 3 years time (though of course to some it will still be defining).
why the f*** is he in Vermont tonight? not exactly ambitious?
Because he is happiest when preaching to the converted. In no way is he a credible candidate for the Presidency. He knows that. The Democrats know that. The Republicans know that.
His policy platform is not affordable - but he keeps talking about his grand pie-in-the-sky ideas that sound very positive until you have to actual pay for them.
He isn't being given the scrutiny because no-one is taking him seriously.
That is why he is staying at home - because it is easier to be in the bubble than confronting realities.
It's just like Corbyn going to a CND rally.
Absolutely. Comfort zone politics from a man who has been wrong all his life.
Did I not predict this? All BoJo has to do is get LEAVE over 40%, and put in a decent personal performance in euroref, and he will be leader and PM
Quite the irony. Cameron's lamentable deal has scuppered his friend Osborne and gifted the leadership to his bitter rival. Or so it seems right now.
The Tory leadership is effectively under AV, add up Osborne, May and Javid and Morgan's totals (all of whom back Remain) and you get to 49%, ahead of Boris' 43%
That's not how it works.
It is, in a final round of Boris v Osborne, Osborne picks up most of May, Javid and Morgan's support amongst members
The poll specifically says that Boris thrashes Osborne in a head to head.
Moreover, members will be looking for a leader who is popular in the country, and a proven winner. Osborne hasn't got a hope in that light.
Though by less than on the first round and Boris still has to get enough MPs votes to get to the final two and the members. If Leave wins Boris gets it no question, if Remain win however I would not yet rule out Osborne, especially if he is ruthless enough to keep Boris off the final ballot paper!
Comments
A majority in all states feel betrayed by the GOP leaders.
Just a very low risk way to take advantage of trump not sealing the deal tonight.
I'm pretty much all in on trump right now.
Nervous.
Surely its an OK move at this point ?
Hillary wins Georgia, virginia
Sanders Vermont.
and Sanders easily wins Vermont
Virginia
Trump 34
Rubio 31
Cruz 16
That's what I'm betting on.
I could be wrong though. DYOR!
Vermont
Trump 32
Kasich 31
GOP
Trump 34
Rubio 31
Cruz 16
Kasich 10
Carson 7.5
Dems
Clinton 62
Sanders 38
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/va/Rep
Same for Vermont.
Bad night for pollsters if Rubio and Kasich win.
GOP
Trump 32
Kasich 31
Rubio 21.5
Cruz 10.5
Carson 4.5
Dems
Sanders 87
Clinton 12.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/vt/Dem
GOP
Trump 40
Cruz 23.5
Rubio 22.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5
Dems
Clinton 64
Sanders 35
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ga/Dem
Probably 15 minutes.
Actually we got some.
Virginia 1% in
Trump 37
Rubio 33
Cruz 19
Or is it now safe to actually tune in?
Trump 38
Rubio 32
Cruz 18
Just as expected.
Anyone going for remain pretty much disqualifies themselves from every leading the party in my opinion
That is good for him in Virginia.
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president
The most important are Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas...
They are always their last to project states.
1% of Georgia in:
trump 53.9%
cruz 22.2%
rubio 15.3%
Parasites and shits the lot.
How does that affect the delegate math?
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/01/super-tuesday-results-live-state-by-state?CMP=ons_b-supertuesday_c-us_g-1
Trump 52
Cruz 23
Rubio 16
Times/@Yougov poll finds most important issue to Tory Members. Europe 55%, asylum & immigration 58%. economy 49%, health 19% education 9%
Presumably Osborne will now be desperate to find any way to remove the membership from the process to elect the next party leader.
http://news.sky.com/watch-live
59% of members are for leave. As long as the leave candidate is a figure with stature, like Boris or Gove, they win every single time.
His policy platform is not affordable - but he keeps talking about his grand pie-in-the-sky ideas that sound very positive until you have to actual pay for them.
He isn't being given the scrutiny because no-one is taking him seriously.
That is why he is staying at home - because it is easier to be in the bubble than confronting realities.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ga/
Trump 38
Kasich 29
Rubio 17
http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/
These first results look a lot like the opinion polls.
Well it is a 2 horse race...