politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight

williamglenn

CNN trying to make something of the fact that Cruz will be using a teleprompter tonight. Could he be preparing a concession speech?

Meanwhile Sky has found a birther...

Speedy

With 23% in Virginia

Trump 37
Rubio 30
Cruz 18

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio winning CD 8, 3, and 7.

Tissue_Price

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

RodCrosby

Sky interviewing voluble citizen who thinks neither Obama nor Cruz are NBCs.

Cut off by Brit reporter who knows shit...

Pulpstar

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

TheWhiteRabbit

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

First results from Vermont

Trump 38
Kasich 29
Rubio 17

http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/

These first results look a lot like the opinion polls.

Kasich gains maybe 7 delegates.

13/246

Trump 37.5
Kasich 26

asjohnstone

Tissue_Price said:

asjohnstone said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/704822796594110467/photo/1

Did I not predict this? All BoJo has to do is get LEAVE over 40%, and put in a decent personal performance in euroref, and he will be leader and PM

Quite the irony. Cameron's lamentable deal has scuppered his friend Osborne and gifted the leadership to his bitter rival. Or so it seems right now.

The Tory leadership is effectively under AV, add up Osborne, May and Javid and Morgan's totals (all of whom back Remain) and you get to 49%, ahead of Boris' 43%

That's not how it works.

Agree, when we get to the final two, the simple choice is,"who stood with me on the defining issue of the day?"

59% of members are for leave. As long as the leave candidate is a figure with stature, like Boris or Gove, they win every single time.

In 2019? Obviously people will be using their opinion poll response to send a message right now. But the referendum will have faded in 3 years time (though of course to some it will still be defining).

You really think Dave will make it to 2019 ? I guess that's the point of difference, I think he's gone in 12 - 18 months regardless, like we saw with Blair, once you say you're going power slips from you quickly.

Again like Tony, I doubt Dave will be in full control of the timings.

Speedy

Updated Vermont exit poll

Kasich 31
Trump 30

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

RodCrosby

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

First results from Vermont

Trump 38
Kasich 29
Rubio 17

http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/

These first results look a lot like the opinion polls.

Kasich gains maybe 7 delegates.

13/246

Trump 37.5
Kasich 26

Over the zero in VT the polls suggested...

viewcode

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

Trump is actually leading in a DC suburb county.
That is good for him in Virginia.

Which DC suburb county ?

Fauquier.

Giggedy.

TheWhiteRabbit

Speedy said:

Updated Vermont exit poll

Kasich 31
Trump 30

Fits oddly with the first results, we shall see.

Speedy

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

D.C coming in for CNN.

Looks Rubio 45 Trump 20 in D.C.

Roger

RodCrosby said:

Sky interviewing voluble citizen who thinks neither Obama or Cruz are NBCs.

Cut off by Brit reporter who knows shit...

Finding eugenicist reporters isn't as easy as it used to be

TheWhiteRabbit

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Speedy said:

Updated Vermont exit poll

Kasich 31
Trump 30

Fits oddly with the first results, we shall see.

http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/

10% reporting

Trump has 10% lead

Pulpstar

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VA

Speedy

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VA

Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.

LondonBob

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/704828450889031681

Pong

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VA

Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.

That someone else wasn't me.

Sadly.

Great spot!

Tissue_Price

Pong said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VA

Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.

That someone else wasn't me.

Sadly.

Just laid about £1k at 1.04. Gonna be staying up now I guess. I went to school in Alexandria in 1998 :-)

TheWhiteRabbit

Pong said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VA

Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.

That someone else wasn't me.

Sadly.

Great spot!

39% reported, 6.5% lead

Looks fairly solid to me - I cashed out for, er, 4 pence

AndyJS

Virginia up to 40% counted already. Seems a bit faster than usual.

Pulpstar

Blimey just topped up at 1.03 in VA.

Tissue_Price

Trump nearly unbackable now in VA. Either someone has better info or people are misreading the result so far.

Speedy

With 10% in Vermont

Trump 36
Kasich 25

http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/

TheWhiteRabbit

What are we expecting 2 mins polls-close-wise? Mass.?

williamglenn

LondonBob said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/704828450889031681

Arlington County 48% for Rubio so far - http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Locality/ARLINGTON COUNTY/Index.html

Pong

Tissue_Price said:

Pong said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

Can't see why people want to back Trump at 1.1 in VA.

9.4% reported, 9% lead. We haven't seen a candidate come back from that so far, although it may happen.

Very little reported for Northern Virginia. Arlington / Loudoun / Alexandria / Fairfax will be key.

Probably come out to match the exit poll.

Rubio ahead in Richmond I note.

It's now a 6.8% lead with 23% reporting. But still virtually nothing from Fairfax, which is huge and likely to break Rubio.

http://linkis.com/decisiondeskhq.com/2NmKS

I have laid Trump at 1.08 in VA

Yes, I saw, well done. I laid mostly at 1.10 (though did get some 20s Rubio) and someone else has just laid about £750 at 1.10.

That someone else wasn't me.

Sadly.

Just laid about £1k at 1.04. Gonna be staying up now I guess. I went to school in Alexandria in 1998 :-)

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1721/Who-will-win-the-2016-Virginia-Republican-primary

RodCrosby

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Speedy

CNN projects Alabama for Trump, Massachusetts, Tennessee.

Massachusetts too close on the Dem side.
Oklahoma to close but Cruz leading, Sanders leading too.

Danny565

Trump projected wins in Alabama, Massachusetts, Tennessee

Danny565

Sanders projected small lead in Massachusetts.

TheWhiteRabbit

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

It's 40% in now, 6.5% lead for Trump so far - far greater divergence now...

AndyJS

Do we have a Texas exit poll?

williamglenn

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...

LondonBob

Projecting Georgia onto Alabama and Tennessee would imply Trump might go plus 50 and both Rubio and Cruz might struggle to get over 20.

Love the fact Carson has stayed in just to shaft Cruz back for his Iowa dirty tricks.

Speedy

This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.

williamglenn

Speedy said:

This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.

Didn't we hear this in South Carolina?

Danny565

Speedy said:

This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.

Well, maybe bad compared to the sky-high expectations - but still makes him the frontrunner by far.

RodCrosby

williamglenn said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...

Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.

DanSmith

Speedy said:

This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.

But the exit polls are wrong.

Speedy

williamglenn said:

Speedy said:

This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.

Didn't we hear this in South Carolina?

I know, that's why I said exit polls.

DanSmith

Terrible night for Rubio if he wins nothing and Cruz wins two.

AndyJS

Speedy said:

This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.

Strange definition of bad IMO. He's still on course to win 10 or 11 of 12.

RodCrosby

Speedy said:

This is a bad night for Trump so far, with exit polls at least.

Wait, wait, wait....

Speedy

RodCrosby said:

williamglenn said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...

Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.

Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.

TheWhiteRabbit

Trump leads by 9% with 14% reported in Vermont

Speedy

In Vermont with 14% in

Trump 35
Kasich 26

RodCrosby

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Trump leads by 9% with 14% reported in Vermont

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Trump leads by 9% with 14% reported in Vermont

Kasich needs 1.6% in the rest...

Divergence 10.6%

TheWhiteRabbit

Speedy said:

RodCrosby said:

williamglenn said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...

Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.

Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.

36.67 vs 30.39 with 51,15% reporting

AndyJS

Speedy said:

RodCrosby said:

williamglenn said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...

Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.

Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.

Population 1.1 million, more than twice as many people as the next most populous VA county.

RodCrosby

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Speedy said:

RodCrosby said:

williamglenn said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...

Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.

Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.

36.67 vs 30.39 with 51,15% reporting

Needs 6.6% lead...

HYUFD

CNN exit poll Alabama

GOP
Trump 46
Rubio 20.5
Cruz 17
Carson 9
Kasich 4.5

Dems
Clinton 70
Sanders 26.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/al/Rep

Speedy

DanSmith said:

Terrible night for Rubio if he wins nothing and Cruz wins two.

Based on Trump underperforming so far, Rubio might win Minnesota.

TheWhiteRabbit

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

RodCrosby said:

williamglenn said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

33% in Virginia

Trump 36
Rubio 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Rubio needs a 2% lead in the remaining...

A 6% divergence.

Rerun based on Trump 37, Rubio 30 at 45% reporting...

Rubio needs a 5.7% lead, a 12.7% divergence.

Only 4% in from Fairfax, Rubio has a 15 point lead there.

Population 1.1 million, more than twice as many people as the next most populous VA county.

THey're 12% in from Fairfax though Rubio does have a 15% lead

Tissue_Price

Well I am -£100 +£1700 in VA now. Come on Marco!

AndyJS

According to CNN Trump is 7% ahead in Virginia with 61% counted:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/va/Rep

RodCrosby

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Alabama

GOP
Trump 46
Rubio 20.5
Cruz 17
Carson 9
Kasich 4.5

Dems
Clinton 70
Sanders 26.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/al/Rep

Close to the opinion polls.

DanSmith

Speedy said:

DanSmith said:

Terrible night for Rubio if he wins nothing and Cruz wins two.

Based on Trump underperforming so far, Rubio might win Minnesota.

Trump isn't underperforming, please stop this !

williamglenn

RodCrosby said:

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Alabama

GOP
Trump 46
Rubio 20.5
Cruz 17
Carson 9
Kasich 4.5

Dems
Clinton 70
Sanders 26.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/al/Rep

Close to the opinion polls.

If the exit poll understates Trump again he could be over 50%.

RodCrosby

AndyJS said:

According to CNN Trump is 7% ahead in Virginia with 61% counted:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/va/Rep

2nd place needs 11%...

AndyJS

Speedy said:

DanSmith said:

Terrible night for Rubio if he wins nothing and Cruz wins two.

Based on Trump underperforming so far, Rubio might win Minnesota.

Hey? Trump is doing better than the exit poll in Virginia so far although as already pointed out Fairfax County could change that.

Speedy

I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.

TheWhiteRabbit

Rubio will probably do an Iowa - look like he's winning but get a handful of f****** nothing by comparison.

RodCrosby

Speedy said:

I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.

Seems wise...

HYUFD

CNN exit poll Massachusetts

GOP
Trump 47
Rubio 18
Kasich 16.5
Cruz 11.5
Carson 3.5

Dems
Clinton 45
Sanders 53
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ma/Rep

AndyJS

Speedy said:

I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.

Despite Fairfax being on just 4% reporting and a 15 point Rubio lead?

Speedy

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

DanSmith said:

Terrible night for Rubio if he wins nothing and Cruz wins two.

Based on Trump underperforming so far, Rubio might win Minnesota.

Hey? Trump is doing better than the exit poll in Virginia so far although as already pointed out Fairfax County could change that.

But worse than opinion polls.
We will see, as I said I'm not an optimist about opinion polls being more accurate than exit polls.

Though from the count so far looks like exit polls were defeated by the opinion polls.

RodCrosby

Sky discussion on NBC...

williamglenn

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.

Despite Fairfax being on just 4% reporting and a 15 point Rubio lead?

It's already 15% in - http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX COUNTY/Index.html

Across the state - Trump 36.7, Rubio 30.2 at 57%.

TheWhiteRabbit

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.

Despite Fairfax being on just 4% reporting and a 15 point Rubio lead?

It's on 15% reported (at least - CNN seems ahead of the gov results) : http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016 March Republican Presidential Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX COUNTY/Index.html

Speedy

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

I'm ready to call Virginia for Trump.

Despite Fairfax being on just 4% reporting and a 15 point Rubio lead?

We are at 69% in, 12% in Fairfax.
Rubio may close the gap but wont overtake Trump.

RodCrosby

Idiots all round displaying their ignorance...

TheWhiteRabbit

Trump leads by 9%, 20% reported in Vermont.

HYUFD

CNN exit poll Oklahoma

GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5

Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/

Speedy

If Trump wins in Oklahoma City he wins Oklahoma.

RodCrosby

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Oklahoma

GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5

Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/

Significantly better for Cruz than the polls.

TheWhiteRabbit

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Oklahoma

GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5

Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/

And Cruz is supposed to stand down for Rubio!

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Oklahoma

GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27

Trump's ahead on the reported results so far (albeit only 1%).

Speedy

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Oklahoma

GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5

Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/

We have Oklahoma and Texas results.

Oklahoma 3% in

Trump 36
Cruz 29
Rubio 23

HYUFD

CNN exit poll Tennessee

GOP
Trump 41
Cruz 21
Rubio 20.5
Carson 9
Kasich 5

Dems
Clinton 61
Sanders 36
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tn/Rep

AndyJS

Just checked how many votes were cast in previous GOP primaries in Fairfax county.

2012: 39,000
2008: 60,000

RodCrosby

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Tennessee

GOP
Trump 41
Cruz 21
Rubio 20.5
Carson 9
Kasich 5

Dems
Clinton 61
Sanders 36
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tn/Rep

Not far off the polls...

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

Having watched the John Oliver "takedown" of Trump, I want him to win the presidency. Just to see the liberal conniptions.

Remember Polly's and friend's reaction when Boris won the first time, then multiple by a million....

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone

MikeL

I see actual vote numbers are coming in from Texas whilst the polls are still open.

oxfordsimon

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Having watched the John Oliver "takedown" of Trump, I want him to win the presidency. Just to see the liberal conniptions.

Remember Polly's and friend's reaction when Boris won the first time, then multiple by a million....

The BBC will probably require therapy in the event of a Trump presidency - they are hardly bothering to conceal their hatred of him (and their love for Sanders)

HYUFD

RodCrosby said:

HYUFD said:

CNN exit poll Oklahoma

GOP
Cruz 32
Trump 27
Rubio 26.5
Carson 7.5
Kasich 5.5

Dems
Clinton 46
Sanders 51
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/

Significantly better for Cruz than the polls.

Yes, could see Cruz win Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas

Speedy

MikeL said:

I see actual vote numbers are coming in from Texas whilst the polls are still open.

They don't close in the west part of Texas until another 40 minutes.
Different Time Zone.

AndyJS

SeanT said:

Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

Might lose Vermont, Oklahoma.

DanSmith

SeanT said:

Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

Looks like it.

FrancisUrquhart

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Having watched the John Oliver "takedown" of Trump, I want him to win the presidency. Just to see the liberal conniptions.

Remember Polly's and friend's reaction when Boris won the first time, then multiple by a million....

The BBC will probably require therapy in the event of a Trump presidency - they are hardly bothering to conceal their hatred of him (and their love for Sanders)

Just when they have managed to finish therapy for the Tory win in 2015....it could push them over the edge again.

Speedy

MikeL said:

I see actual vote numbers are coming in from Texas whilst the polls are still open.

Cruz is doing very well in rural Texas, Trump is actually winning on the Mexican border.

TheWhiteRabbit

Speedy said:

MikeL said:

I see actual vote numbers are coming in from Texas whilst the polls are still open.

They don't close in the west part of Texas until another 40 minutes.
Different Time Zone.

And yet Sutton County is reporting?!

TheWhiteRabbit

Vermont 24% reported, still a 9% lead for Trump

Speedy

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

Might lose Vermont, Oklahoma.

In Vermont with 19% in

Trump 36
Kasich 27

Oklahoma with 7% in

Trump 34
Cruz 27
Rubio 25

Bang on the opinion poll average.

RodCrosby

DanSmith said:

SeanT said:

Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

Looks like it.

It was already baked in to the expectations. Trump will still finish with a bus load of delegates in TX.

AndyJS

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

Might lose Vermont, Oklahoma.

Trump winning both of those, so far.

I was going by the exit polls. Maybe they're rubbish.

Speedy

RodCrosby said:

DanSmith said:

SeanT said:

Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

Looks like it.

It was already baked in to the expectations. Trump will still finish with a bus load of delegates in TX.

Watch if Rubio falls bellow 20%.

TheWhiteRabbit

RodCrosby said:

DanSmith said:

SeanT said:

Cruz ahead in Texas. Is this the only state Trump will lose?

Looks like it.

It was already baked in to the expectations. Trump will still finish with a bus load of delegates in TX.

Trump will be happy enough to lose just Cruz's home state - and to the right opponent