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  • Good morning, everyone.

    New EU referendum, in Hungary, on whether migrant quotas should be accepted:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35657054

    Not Hungarian, but I'd guess it's a dead cert, and a way of getting clear popular support for a hardline stance.

    It's a good example of what Margaret Thatcher meant when she said that the referendum was a device of demagogues and dictators.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
    Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
  • kle4 said:

    Worked in Greece. Hell, even when the stance failed they rewarded the people taking it!
    The difference is that the Greeks were like a patient on life-support saying they didn't want the hospitals rules and the hospital said OK we'll turn off life-support then. Hungary isn't on life-support.
  • Polruan said:

    Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
    I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    HYUFD said:

    A middle class Remainer who is a pensioner will be more likely to vote than a working class pensioner minded to Leave and a middle class thirty year old who backs Remain more likely to vote than a working class thirty year old who backs Brexit. At the general election and in indyref the Tories and No had a clear advantage on turnout as they were backed by both the old and the middle-class who have higher turnout while the young and working class, who have a lower turnout, favoured Labour and Yes respectively. In EU Ref neither side will have as big a turnout advantage as while the old back Leave the middle-class back Remain
    There's also the Scotland to factor in. Having caught the referendum bug last time the turnout might be higher here than elsewhere. Mind you perhaps some canny nationalists will vote to leave in the hope that might trigger another Indy ref.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    The difference is that the Greeks were like a patient on life-support saying they didn't want the hospitals rules and the hospital said OK we'll turn off life-support then. Hungary isn't on life-support.
    I know, I was just being flippant. I still cannot quite believe how bad the situation must be in Greece that they felt Tsipras and co were still the best option after that farce.
  • Sean_F said:

    The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.

    It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.

    Leave should highlight the major risks in staying, and emphasise the potential economic and fiscal benefits of leaving, just like any other political campaign.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Norm said:

    Mind you perhaps some canny nationalists will vote to leave in the hope that might trigger another Indy ref.

    Only if they live in England.

    So lots then...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,510

    One final thought on demographics and turnout, based on Sean's comment about a young middle class individual versus and older working class one ... I am curious if anyone knows what proportion of each age-group belongs to which social class?

    As people age they not only mature but can change their occupation.

    Someone who is unemployed at 18 (E)
    Could be working in a semi-skilled or unskilled profession at 25 (D).
    By 35 they may have become skilled at what they do (C2).
    By 45 they could be supervisory to the next generation (C1) - now middle class.
    By 55 they could have become managerial (B)
    Before they retire they may have even reached higher management (A)

    While it's not a one-way street people try and progress through their careers rather than go backwards so I wonder if the elderly could be more likely to vote because they're more middle class and/or if the middle class could be more likely to vote because they're older.

    Do we have data that granulated?

    A to E classification is really outdated anyway. Very junior clerical jobs get counted as middle class (C1) but people in such jobs don't really have middle class living standards.
  • I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
    Number two? Who's number one?

    Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
  • Number two? Who's number one?

    Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
    There's a picture clue in the thread header of number one.
  • Sean_F said:

    A to E classification is really outdated anyway. Very junior clerical jobs get counted as middle class (C1) but people in such jobs don't really have middle class living standards.
    I agree but as long as it's what the pollsters use it's what we have to go on. And the pollsters show a major difference based on these classifications so I doubt they'll be dropped any time soon.
  • There's a picture clue in the thread header of number one.
    I'm guessing it's not today's guest either. He'd be nuts to invoke her majesty unless he was certain it wouldn't be rebutted swiftly, which it almost certainly would.

    Then again he is nuts. You may be right.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,510

    In the short term Leave will probably have some temporary pain - currency depression, higher inflation & reduced business investment while uncertainty over renegotiation carries on.......longer term, who knows, but provided Britain retains access to the single market, there won't be much difference longer term.

    Of course if we end up out of the single market (with complete control of our borders) I struggle to see how we will be anything but poorer.....
    I think that EU membership is one variable among many that affects our prosperity. If we vote Leave, and Jeremy Corbyn wins in 2020, then we'll be poorer for certain, and a radical socialist government could do things outside the EU that EU membership would prevent it from doing. an economically sane government should be able to do fine outside the EU.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    HYUFD said:

    The Dutch, the Spanish, the Belgians, the Swedes, the Danes and Luxembourg all have monarchies too and the Queen probably backs Remain (though Philip likely backs Leave)
    O/T
    Saw in the Standard yesterday that cross rail is going to be called The Elizabeth line and will be Royal purple on the maps. Must have missed that one being muted.

    Either way and like it or not the British Royal family is much more major and central in British life than the equivalent in these other countries you mention.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This looks like a sampling nightmare.

    Thought YouGov weighting up the Not Very Interested was something worth watching.

    I did the last survey and declared as a 10/10 Interested.

    Didn't think much of the forced choices for Leader post Cameron.
    Sean_F said:

    The Latest Ipsos MORI poll gives Remain a 32% lead among those certain not to vote, and a 7% lead among those certain to vote.

    Yougov have Leave 74% certain to vote, Remain 64%.
  • Number two? Who's number one?

    Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
    How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?

    Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.

    I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.

    I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.

    We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    In separate developments:

    A French judge is to decide whether to implement or postpone an eviction order for up to 1,000 migrants under plans to demolish part of the Calais "Jungle" camp

    Belgium has detained 80 migrants on the French border since imposing controls on Monday evening, officials say. Many of the migrants are thought to have come from Calais

    Germany expects to accommodate 3.6m migrants by 2020, German media reported, quoting internal government estimates

    A special flight from Germany carrying 125 deported Afghans has arrived in Kabul, as Germany takes steps to reduce the number of people seeking asylum

    Good morning, everyone.

    New EU referendum, in Hungary, on whether migrant quotas should be accepted:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35657054

    Not Hungarian, but I'd guess it's a dead cert, and a way of getting clear popular support for a hardline stance.

  • In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
  • It's a good example of what Margaret Thatcher meant when she said that the referendum was a device of demagogues and dictators.
    David Cameron has now held three referendums.

    Which one do you think he is?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,079
    Norm said:

    There's also the Scotland to factor in. Having caught the referendum bug last time the turnout might be higher here than elsewhere. Mind you perhaps some canny nationalists will vote to leave in the hope that might trigger another Indy ref.
    Indeed that should help Remain though as you say about a third of SNP voters back Leave in most polls
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Doesn't matter. People angry at the sacking potential will remain so even if it never happens.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
    Yeah, it was after, but that's one of those facts you don't want to let get in the way of a good (well, passable) joke.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    HYUFD said:

    Ryanair has taken out an advert in the Times saying 'Vote Yes to Europe'

    The most respected company in the country. All customers love them. They have no vested interest. Really, will that sort of advertisement have any effect?

    A bit like Guardian readers writing to American citizens and advising them how to vote in a progressive way.
  • Thinking as quickly on his feet as he ever does, Corbyn barely responded to the jibe at the time. But a helpful aide, armed with Google, later tweeted what he claimed was a quote by Einstein: "If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies."

    Wise words and often found in online lists of quotations, but the TMS diary reports that Einstein never said it. It's been misattributed to him for years.

    As Abraham Lincoln once said: "30 per cent of quotes on the internet are made up."
  • How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?

    Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.

    I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.

    I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.

    We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
    But joining was something we "achieved" joining her reign and has been something successive governments have encouraged for decades of her reign. I don't doubt what her government or any of her previous governments, her advisors or any of her previous advisors have been recommending, do you?

    To be in favour of Leave would mean being in favour of going against what the civil service and successive government's for decades have wanted. She's sentient so it's possible, but it would be tremendously out of character.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    David Cameron has now held three referendums.

    Which one do you think he is?
    Backed into a corner on two of them, so a third choice may be needed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,079
    Sean_F said:

    A to E classification is really outdated anyway. Very junior clerical jobs get counted as middle class (C1) but people in such jobs don't really have middle class living standards.
    Yes well ABs who are the most educated and most wealthy are the most pro Remain and most likely to turn out even if you exclude C1s and DEs are the most pro Leave
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,510
    "Full confidence" are often ominous words.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    kle4 said:

    I for one would be interested in the processes.

    On the face of it the system looks much like the US system, which should not be much of a surprise as a former American colony, it's a presidential system with elected Senate and House of Representative, however appearances can be deceptive!

    The president is elected for a six year term, with a maximum two term limit by simple plurality. The big difference is there is no ticket, the president and vice-president are elected independently. Which can mean some interesting results, such as the current administration where the president and vice-president are from different and indeed opposing parties.

    Half the 24 seat Senate is elected every three years, this uses the interesting "plurality-at-large" voting system, effectively the whole country is one multi-member constituency. All voters get to pick 12 names, one vote per candidate and the 12 senators with the most votes are selected.

    The House of Representatives is also up for re-election, with a parallel voting system, electors get one vote for their local candidate, and one for a party list candidate. 234 Representatives are elected by district, and 58 from the party list (the constitution requires 1 party list seat for every four district seats). Then it gets a bit complicated. If the party passes a 2% threshold, they get one seat, they then get further seats in proportion to the number of votes but no more than 3 seats. If there are any seats left these are given to the parties with less that 2% of the vote in order of their vote share, 1 each. The idea being that the party list part of the seats should give access to the widest possible range of views, noteable "sectoral interests", which usually means a party representing a particular ethnic subgrouping.

    We also have local elections with governors, vice governors, mayors all the way down to city council members all standing for election. Here each equivalent of an electoral ward (Barangay) has its own council all of which will be elected this year, of particular note will be the head of this council, the Barangay Captain, which is always a hotly contested position. All politicians from the Barangay Captain up hold real power and patronage, so politics is taken extremely seriously indeed.
  • David Cameron has now held three referendums.

    Which one do you think he is?
    Was it Maggie who said that? I thought it was Churchill.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    edited February 2016

    Thinking as quickly on his feet as he ever does, Corbyn barely responded to the jibe at the time. But a helpful aide, armed with Google, later tweeted what he claimed was a quote by Einstein: "If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies."

    Wise words and often found in online lists of quotations, but the TMS diary reports that Einstein never said it. It's been misattributed to him for years.

    As Abraham Lincoln once said: "30 per cent of quotes on the internet are made up."

    Well, dear old far sighted Abraham was just plain wrong.

    100% of quotes on the internet are made up, as are all quotes from everywhere.

    Pedant mode off
  • Sean_F said:
    Nah. The ominous phrase is 'Cameron says Gove's position is unassailable'
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307

    Was it Maggie who said that? I thought it was Churchill.

    My thought is was Attlee.
  • @patrickwintour: Have to admire the professionalism of Downing Street. Migration statistics today so the Savile inquiry gets to be published. The grid is all
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,510

    How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?

    Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.

    I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.

    I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.

    We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
    I think the Queen is likely to favour the status quo.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jim Pickard
    "I wouldn't use a Frankenstein analogy but there have been times when we've wondered exactly what we've created." https://t.co/zH6mij7U2w
  • F1: likely that even the worst teams (in testing terms) will end up with over 200 laps on the board for the first test. Just one more before the season starts, of course.

    First race weekend starts on the 18th of March. Apparently, Channel 4 still doesn't have its F1 website up and running.
  • Absolutely.
    They seem by a wide margin the most sensible - though if it is them, and REMAIN win we'll have decades of 'Establishment stitch up' whining.......
  • Six Nations: just musing, but France are 4 and Italy 3.2 to beat Wales and Scotland respectively.

    Hmm. Shall ponder backing those.
  • Six Nations: just musing, but France are 4 and Italy 3.2 to beat Wales and Scotland respectively.

    Hmm. Shall ponder backing those.

    I'm going to back Ireland. Eddie Jones seems to have enraged the Irish.
  • Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't. Not impossible, of course, but Ireland appear to have forgotten how to win, likely due to losing leadership over the last couple of years.
  • Limited support for the SNP Scottish Six:

    The leaked document also confirmed the lack of clear public support for a Scottish Six.

    It said focus groups in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Kirkcaldy and Nairn, which were shown the proposals, declared "a strong interest in a UK perspective on UK and international stories".

    It added: "Support for a Scottish Six was muted and, at the very least, it is recognised that BBC Scotland would have to address perceived quality issues first".

    It said the two new-look bulletins "would clearly be a risk to audience numbers".


    http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14300023.Turmoil_at_BBC_Scotland_as_journalists_threaten_to_block__Scottish_Six_/
  • philiph said:

    The most respected company in the country. All customers love them. They have no vested interest. Really, will that sort of advertisement have any effect?

    A bit like Guardian readers writing to American citizens and advising them how to vote in a progressive way.
    You're assuming that the desired effect is intended in this country. I expect that it will go down very well in their home market.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    As told to Johann Hari.

    Thinking as quickly on his feet as he ever does, Corbyn barely responded to the jibe at the time. But a helpful aide, armed with Google, later tweeted what he claimed was a quote by Einstein: "If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies."

    Wise words and often found in online lists of quotations, but the TMS diary reports that Einstein never said it. It's been misattributed to him for years.

    As Abraham Lincoln once said: "30 per cent of quotes on the internet are made up."

  • In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!

    Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,573
    JohnO said:

    My thought is was Attlee.
    Googled it and it appears to be Attlee’s originially. Thatcher credited him with it in her 1975 speech on the matter.
    Can’t find where Attlee said it, so iot might have been in conversation or an interview. Attlee actually said despots not demagogues.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690
    For the PB neds - just passed Flying Scotsman at St Neots. Unfortunately a northbound Virgin got in the way so I didn't see it!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,573

    You're assuming that the desired effect is intended in this country. I expect that it will go down very well in their home market.
    To be fair, Ryanair’s image has improved of late. Somewhat anyway.
  • Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
    You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    One of those rare occasions when being a #commuter pays off!
    #flyingscotsman Thanks to restorers & @railwaymuseum https://t.co/LZmu7KHaYj
  • You're assuming that the desired effect is intended in this country. I expect that it will go down very well in their home market.
    And may also motivate Brit expats who can vote......
  • @patrickwintour: Have to admire the professionalism of Downing Street. Migration statistics today so the Savile inquiry gets to be published. The grid is all

    I am sure it is a total coincidence....
  • You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
    Lurking beneath the façade of a mild mannered master strategist.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557
    I read that as meaning "It doesn't take three seconds of thought to know that this [intervention by a "Downing Street source"] is rubbish."

    Am I wrong?

  • Trust you to quote a Europhile propaganda sheet like the Telegraph.......
    Trust Roger to get it wrong.
  • I am sure it is a total coincidence....
    I wonder which one the BBC will focus on most heavily.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/life/article4698496.ece
    Hugo Rifkind is full-on metropolitan elite, and soaking wet, of course.

    An will vote yes in a second IndyRef if Britain leaves the EU
  • Lurking beneath the façade of a mild mannered master strategist.....
    George Osborne is Hong Kong Phooey?
  • Sean_F said:

    I think the Queen is likely to favour the status quo.
    I think she's ambivalent and as a risk averse lady would be likely to tilt towards the status quo, but it's not a certainty. She will act on the advice of her Government.

    FWIW, I think Philip probably tilts to Leave and Charles quite strongly to Remain.
  • I think she's ambivalent and as a risk averse lady would be likely to tilt towards the status quo, but it's not a certainty. She will act on the advice of her Government.

    FWIW, I think Philip probably tilts to Leave and Charles quite strongly to Remain.
    Surely Phil the Dane would be a Remainer, with the free movement of travel the EU gives him.
  • In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!

    No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.

    I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.

    Looks like he got it.
  • George Osborne is Hong Kong Phooey?
    And has to be rescued by his cat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557

    No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.

    I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.

    Looks like he got it.
    Osborne doesn't want an endorsement from Gove. He just wants to hear that he isn't going to stand for PM...
  • No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.

    I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.

    Looks like he got it.
    Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?

    That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
  • When adjusted for Gross National income or population the British contribution is pretty much the same or less than Germany, France, Italy, the Low Countries or Scandanavia.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union

    If we're talking about leverage in negotiations per capita amount don't matter. The gross amount is what the EU will lose if we leave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557

    George Osborne is Hong Kong Phooey?
    He's the Janitor?

    Could be....
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Election Data
    Asked @UKLabour members how they voted in leadership election and how they would vote in future. They broke thus: https://t.co/4UGrLM0rUO
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited February 2016
    According to the Guido spreadsheet there are only 28 Tory MPs still to declare with one of those remaining ND until referendum day. Leave are stuck on 140 with most late breakers going for Remain. I'm waiting for 2 of my local, previously eurosceptic MPs to pronounce - new mother and sports minister Tracey Crouch and Kelly Tolhiurst who saw off Reckless in Rochester and Strood.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?

    That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
    So will he also try to buy Priti off by offering her the Home Office?
  • Osborne would be terrible as leader. He doesn't have either loyalty of the troops or breakthrough appeal. Worst of both worlds.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2016
    The most likely to vote are white, home-owning AB's aged 55+

    The least likely to vote are BAME, rental, under 35s.

    A small piece of spreadsheet work implies the voting electorate (using GE2015 turnout from the Ipsos review) will be divided proportionately as:

    18-34: 21.2%
    35-54: 36.5%
    55-....: 42.3%

    A grey pledge is twice as valuable as one from an under 35.
  • So will he also try to buy Priti off by offering her the Home Office?
    She might not have a seat. Boundary changes are going to leave her seatless.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Osborne would be terrible as leader. He doesn't have either loyalty of the troops or breakthrough appeal. Worst of both worlds.

    Really?

    Reading PB this week I got the impression Cameron was the worst leader imaginable. Shocked to find somebody could be worse...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557
    Norm said:

    According to the Guido spreadsheet there are only 28 Tory MPs still to declare with one of those remaining ND until referendum day. Leave are stuck on 140 with most late breakers going for Remain. I'm waiting for 2 of my local, previously eurosceptic MPs to pronounce - new mother and sports minister Tracey Crouch and Kelly Tolhiurst who saw off Reckless in Rochester and Strood.

    I was sure I had read that Kelly Tolhurst was for Leave?
  • Mr. Die, indeed.

    Facing Corbyn, it could be springtime for UKIP. If the purples had someone other than Farage, they'd be in an even better position.
  • Two very good polls for Trump in the Cruz targets of Texas and Oklahoma.

    http://newsok.com/article/5480910

    Trump 29, Rubio 21, Cruz 20. Big turnout and Trump should win Oklahoma comfortably.

    http://www.wfaa.com/news/politics/elections/cruz-trump-tied-in-wfaa-texas-poll/55007805

    Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
  • Latest net migration figures to UK show dip down from 336,000 to 323,000 between second and third quarters of 2015 - ONS
  • She might not have a seat. Boundary changes are going to leave her seatless.
    Morning all,

    "There are no true friends in politics. We are all sharks circling, and waiting, for traces of blood to appear in the water." - Alan Clark.

  • I am sure it is a total coincidence....
    At least they know how to operate a grid. Hello, Corbyn's Labour??
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    From the migration stats release:

    http://tinyurl.com/zfukeh3

    "While the increase in immigration of EU citizens was not statistically significant, there was a statistically significant increase in EU2 immigration, from 40,000 to 55,000. EU2 citizens now account for 21% of total EU immigration compared with 16% in YE September 2014."

    EU2 means Romania and Bulgaria. I thought we were told they weren't going to come?
  • I work in the services sector. We're covering for the slackers in the rest of the economy.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/702788419248889856?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
  • Down to 10,000's .....oh wait....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690
    Tens of thousands.

    Thirty-two tens of thousands.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    What's interesting about the migration stats release is that emigration is continuing to fall.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ONS
    853k people aged 16-24 were #NEET in Oct-Dec 2015 - 5k up on previous 3 months but 110K down on year https://t.co/IzAyGJ9qpW
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ONS, nice graph
    Net migration was 323k in the year ending Sept 15, Immigration = 617k and Emigration = 294k https://t.co/EH3m2GS0hp https://t.co/e2lrCFhgQx
  • Tens of thousands.

    Thirty-two tens of thousands.

    It was an aspiration.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    MineForNothing
    UK service sector contributed to 91% of GDP growth in 2015
  • I was sure I had read that Kelly Tolhurst was for Leave?
    Yup, according to Speccie.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    165,000 EU citizens came to the UK for work-related reasons. Of these, 96,000 (58%) came for a definite job and 69,000 (42%) came looking for work.

    69,000 EU "workers" arriving speculatively.
  • Pulpstar said:
    Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ONS
    290k people immigrated for work in year ending Sept 2015. 59% had a definite job to go to https://t.co/FV0rQpCLQ5 https://t.co/YPjZEqZ1Oe
  • It was an aspiration.
    The Cons are nothing if not the party of aspiration.
  • Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?

    That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
    I couldn't care less if he gets an endorsement from Margaret Thatcher's posthumous soul.

    There's no way on God's earth I'm voting for him.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ONS
    Majority of those immigrating for work are EU citizens (60%), but for study are non-EU citizens (71%) https://t.co/yZFCiYObSL
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