A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
Not Hungarian, but I'd guess it's a dead cert, and a way of getting clear popular support for a hardline stance.
Worked in Greece. Hell, even when the stance failed they rewarded the people taking it!
The difference is that the Greeks were like a patient on life-support saying they didn't want the hospitals rules and the hospital said OK we'll turn off life-support then. Hungary isn't on life-support.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
A middle class Remainer who is a pensioner will be more likely to vote than a working class pensioner minded to Leave and a middle class thirty year old who backs Remain more likely to vote than a working class thirty year old who backs Brexit. At the general election and in indyref the Tories and No had a clear advantage on turnout as they were backed by both the old and the middle-class who have higher turnout while the young and working class, who have a lower turnout, favoured Labour and Yes respectively. In EU Ref neither side will have as big a turnout advantage as while the old back Leave the middle-class back Remain
There's also the Scotland to factor in. Having caught the referendum bug last time the turnout might be higher here than elsewhere. Mind you perhaps some canny nationalists will vote to leave in the hope that might trigger another Indy ref.
Not Hungarian, but I'd guess it's a dead cert, and a way of getting clear popular support for a hardline stance.
Worked in Greece. Hell, even when the stance failed they rewarded the people taking it!
The difference is that the Greeks were like a patient on life-support saying they didn't want the hospitals rules and the hospital said OK we'll turn off life-support then. Hungary isn't on life-support.
I know, I was just being flippant. I still cannot quite believe how bad the situation must be in Greece that they felt Tsipras and co were still the best option after that farce.
The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
Leave should highlight the major risks in staying, and emphasise the potential economic and fiscal benefits of leaving, just like any other political campaign.
One final thought on demographics and turnout, based on Sean's comment about a young middle class individual versus and older working class one ... I am curious if anyone knows what proportion of each age-group belongs to which social class?
As people age they not only mature but can change their occupation.
Someone who is unemployed at 18 (E) Could be working in a semi-skilled or unskilled profession at 25 (D). By 35 they may have become skilled at what they do (C2). By 45 they could be supervisory to the next generation (C1) - now middle class. By 55 they could have become managerial (B) Before they retire they may have even reached higher management (A)
While it's not a one-way street people try and progress through their careers rather than go backwards so I wonder if the elderly could be more likely to vote because they're more middle class and/or if the middle class could be more likely to vote because they're older.
Do we have data that granulated?
A to E classification is really outdated anyway. Very junior clerical jobs get counted as middle class (C1) but people in such jobs don't really have middle class living standards.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
There's a picture clue in the thread header of number one.
One final thought on demographics and turnout, based on Sean's comment about a young middle class individual versus and older working class one ... I am curious if anyone knows what proportion of each age-group belongs to which social class?
As people age they not only mature but can change their occupation.
Someone who is unemployed at 18 (E) Could be working in a semi-skilled or unskilled profession at 25 (D). By 35 they may have become skilled at what they do (C2). By 45 they could be supervisory to the next generation (C1) - now middle class. By 55 they could have become managerial (B) Before they retire they may have even reached higher management (A)
While it's not a one-way street people try and progress through their careers rather than go backwards so I wonder if the elderly could be more likely to vote because they're more middle class and/or if the middle class could be more likely to vote because they're older.
Do we have data that granulated?
A to E classification is really outdated anyway. Very junior clerical jobs get counted as middle class (C1) but people in such jobs don't really have middle class living standards.
I agree but as long as it's what the pollsters use it's what we have to go on. And the pollsters show a major difference based on these classifications so I doubt they'll be dropped any time soon.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
There's a picture clue in the thread header of number one.
I'm guessing it's not today's guest either. He'd be nuts to invoke her majesty unless he was certain it wouldn't be rebutted swiftly, which it almost certainly would.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
In the short term Leave will probably have some temporary pain - currency depression, higher inflation & reduced business investment while uncertainty over renegotiation carries on.......longer term, who knows, but provided Britain retains access to the single market, there won't be much difference longer term.
Of course if we end up out of the single market (with complete control of our borders) I struggle to see how we will be anything but poorer.....
I think that EU membership is one variable among many that affects our prosperity. If we vote Leave, and Jeremy Corbyn wins in 2020, then we'll be poorer for certain, and a radical socialist government could do things outside the EU that EU membership would prevent it from doing. an economically sane government should be able to do fine outside the EU.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
The Dutch, the Spanish, the Belgians, the Swedes, the Danes and Luxembourg all have monarchies too and the Queen probably backs Remain (though Philip likely backs Leave)
O/T Saw in the Standard yesterday that cross rail is going to be called The Elizabeth line and will be Royal purple on the maps. Must have missed that one being muted.
Either way and like it or not the British Royal family is much more major and central in British life than the equivalent in these other countries you mention.
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
If you mean Middle Class as AB and Working Class as DE (I hate both terms personally):
A middle class voter (75%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%) A working class voter (57%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old.(54%)
A homeowner (77%) is exactly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%) A private renter (51%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old (54%)
I'd be curious to see the detail on a phone poll showing turnout favours Leave.
The Latest Ipsos MORI poll gives Remain a 32% lead among those certain not to vote, and a 7% lead among those certain to vote.
Yougov have Leave 74% certain to vote, Remain 64%.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?
Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.
I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.
I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.
We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
A French judge is to decide whether to implement or postpone an eviction order for up to 1,000 migrants under plans to demolish part of the Calais "Jungle" camp
Belgium has detained 80 migrants on the French border since imposing controls on Monday evening, officials say. Many of the migrants are thought to have come from Calais
Germany expects to accommodate 3.6m migrants by 2020, German media reported, quoting internal government estimates
A special flight from Germany carrying 125 deported Afghans has arrived in Kabul, as Germany takes steps to reduce the number of people seeking asylum
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
A middle class Remainer who is a pensioner will be more likely to vote than a working class pensioner minded to Leave and a middle class thirty year old who backs Remain more likely to vote than a working class thirty year old who backs Brexit. At the general election and in indyref the Tories and No had a clear advantage on turnout as they were backed by both the old and the middle-class who have higher turnout while the young and working class, who have a lower turnout, favoured Labour and Yes respectively. In EU Ref neither side will have as big a turnout advantage as while the old back Leave the middle-class back Remain
There's also the Scotland to factor in. Having caught the referendum bug last time the turnout might be higher here than elsewhere. Mind you perhaps some canny nationalists will vote to leave in the hope that might trigger another Indy ref.
Indeed that should help Remain though as you say about a third of SNP voters back Leave in most polls
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Yeah, it was after, but that's one of those facts you don't want to let get in the way of a good (well, passable) joke.
Ryanair has taken out an advert in the Times saying 'Vote Yes to Europe'
The most respected company in the country. All customers love them. They have no vested interest. Really, will that sort of advertisement have any effect?
A bit like Guardian readers writing to American citizens and advising them how to vote in a progressive way.
Thinking as quickly on his feet as he ever does, Corbyn barely responded to the jibe at the time. But a helpful aide, armed with Google, later tweeted what he claimed was a quote by Einstein: "If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies."
Wise words and often found in online lists of quotations, but the TMS diary reports that Einstein never said it. It's been misattributed to him for years.
As Abraham Lincoln once said: "30 per cent of quotes on the internet are made up."
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?
Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.
I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.
I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.
We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
But joining was something we "achieved" joining her reign and has been something successive governments have encouraged for decades of her reign. I don't doubt what her government or any of her previous governments, her advisors or any of her previous advisors have been recommending, do you?
To be in favour of Leave would mean being in favour of going against what the civil service and successive government's for decades have wanted. She's sentient so it's possible, but it would be tremendously out of character.
One final thought on demographics and turnout, based on Sean's comment about a young middle class individual versus and older working class one ... I am curious if anyone knows what proportion of each age-group belongs to which social class?
As people age they not only mature but can change their occupation.
Someone who is unemployed at 18 (E) Could be working in a semi-skilled or unskilled profession at 25 (D). By 35 they may have become skilled at what they do (C2). By 45 they could be supervisory to the next generation (C1) - now middle class. By 55 they could have become managerial (B) Before they retire they may have even reached higher management (A)
While it's not a one-way street people try and progress through their careers rather than go backwards so I wonder if the elderly could be more likely to vote because they're more middle class and/or if the middle class could be more likely to vote because they're older.
Do we have data that granulated?
A to E classification is really outdated anyway. Very junior clerical jobs get counted as middle class (C1) but people in such jobs don't really have middle class living standards.
Yes well ABs who are the most educated and most wealthy are the most pro Remain and most likely to turn out even if you exclude C1s and DEs are the most pro Leave
On the face of it the system looks much like the US system, which should not be much of a surprise as a former American colony, it's a presidential system with elected Senate and House of Representative, however appearances can be deceptive!
The president is elected for a six year term, with a maximum two term limit by simple plurality. The big difference is there is no ticket, the president and vice-president are elected independently. Which can mean some interesting results, such as the current administration where the president and vice-president are from different and indeed opposing parties.
Half the 24 seat Senate is elected every three years, this uses the interesting "plurality-at-large" voting system, effectively the whole country is one multi-member constituency. All voters get to pick 12 names, one vote per candidate and the 12 senators with the most votes are selected.
The House of Representatives is also up for re-election, with a parallel voting system, electors get one vote for their local candidate, and one for a party list candidate. 234 Representatives are elected by district, and 58 from the party list (the constitution requires 1 party list seat for every four district seats). Then it gets a bit complicated. If the party passes a 2% threshold, they get one seat, they then get further seats in proportion to the number of votes but no more than 3 seats. If there are any seats left these are given to the parties with less that 2% of the vote in order of their vote share, 1 each. The idea being that the party list part of the seats should give access to the widest possible range of views, noteable "sectoral interests", which usually means a party representing a particular ethnic subgrouping.
We also have local elections with governors, vice governors, mayors all the way down to city council members all standing for election. Here each equivalent of an electoral ward (Barangay) has its own council all of which will be elected this year, of particular note will be the head of this council, the Barangay Captain, which is always a hotly contested position. All politicians from the Barangay Captain up hold real power and patronage, so politics is taken extremely seriously indeed.
Thinking as quickly on his feet as he ever does, Corbyn barely responded to the jibe at the time. But a helpful aide, armed with Google, later tweeted what he claimed was a quote by Einstein: "If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies."
Wise words and often found in online lists of quotations, but the TMS diary reports that Einstein never said it. It's been misattributed to him for years.
As Abraham Lincoln once said: "30 per cent of quotes on the internet are made up."
Well, dear old far sighted Abraham was just plain wrong.
100% of quotes on the internet are made up, as are all quotes from everywhere.
@patrickwintour: Have to admire the professionalism of Downing Street. Migration statistics today so the Savile inquiry gets to be published. The grid is all
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?
Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.
I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.
I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.
We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
I think the Queen is likely to favour the status quo.
F1: likely that even the worst teams (in testing terms) will end up with over 200 laps on the board for the first test. Just one more before the season starts, of course.
First race weekend starts on the 18th of March. Apparently, Channel 4 still doesn't have its F1 website up and running.
The electoral commission will not officially nominate the official campaigns until 1st April. Are we really going to have more than another month of this chaos from Leave? If so the official nomination will be entirely academic.
The egos on the Leave side are many and various and the addition of David Owen is hardly likely to increase the sense of harmony and unity. Most claim that this is the biggest decision that the country will have faced in the last 40 years. But it is still not important enough, apparently, to stop playing really stupid and destructive games.
Rather than moaning about Cameron leading the remain campaign and standing up for government policy the various Leave factions need to focus on giving the people of this country a genuine and serious choice. To date that has not happened and the inevitable conclusion is going to be that whilst the EU is a very long way short of perfect staying in is the only sensible option.
I always thought that Leave would have some of these problems but the last week has been beyond my worst nightmares. Even in this podcast we have UKIPs only MP disagreeing with Farage about who the leading group should be. I was too young to vote the last time and will probably be dead before this comes around again. Is this one chance to define our future as a nation really to be a total farce?
It's beyond depressing, isn't it?
Not that anyone cares or listens to what I think, but I shall be writing to Vote Leave this weekend.
Might make me feel better.
Would Vote Leave be your preference for Lead Campaign?
Absolutely.
They seem by a wide margin the most sensible - though if it is them, and REMAIN win we'll have decades of 'Establishment stitch up' whining.......
Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't. Not impossible, of course, but Ireland appear to have forgotten how to win, likely due to losing leadership over the last couple of years.
The leaked document also confirmed the lack of clear public support for a Scottish Six.
It said focus groups in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Kirkcaldy and Nairn, which were shown the proposals, declared "a strong interest in a UK perspective on UK and international stories".
It added: "Support for a Scottish Six was muted and, at the very least, it is recognised that BBC Scotland would have to address perceived quality issues first".
It said the two new-look bulletins "would clearly be a risk to audience numbers".
Ryanair has taken out an advert in the Times saying 'Vote Yes to Europe'
The most respected company in the country. All customers love them. They have no vested interest. Really, will that sort of advertisement have any effect?
A bit like Guardian readers writing to American citizens and advising them how to vote in a progressive way.
You're assuming that the desired effect is intended in this country. I expect that it will go down very well in their home market.
Thinking as quickly on his feet as he ever does, Corbyn barely responded to the jibe at the time. But a helpful aide, armed with Google, later tweeted what he claimed was a quote by Einstein: "If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies."
Wise words and often found in online lists of quotations, but the TMS diary reports that Einstein never said it. It's been misattributed to him for years.
As Abraham Lincoln once said: "30 per cent of quotes on the internet are made up."
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
Not Hungarian, but I'd guess it's a dead cert, and a way of getting clear popular support for a hardline stance.
It's a good example of what Margaret Thatcher meant when she said that the referendum was a device of demagogues and dictators.
David Cameron has now held three referendums.
Which one do you think he is?
Was it Maggie who said that? I thought it was Churchill.
My thought is was Attlee.
Googled it and it appears to be Attlee’s originially. Thatcher credited him with it in her 1975 speech on the matter. Can’t find where Attlee said it, so iot might have been in conversation or an interview. Attlee actually said despots not demagogues.
Ryanair has taken out an advert in the Times saying 'Vote Yes to Europe'
The most respected company in the country. All customers love them. They have no vested interest. Really, will that sort of advertisement have any effect?
A bit like Guardian readers writing to American citizens and advising them how to vote in a progressive way.
You're assuming that the desired effect is intended in this country. I expect that it will go down very well in their home market.
To be fair, Ryanair’s image has improved of late. Somewhat anyway.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
Ryanair has taken out an advert in the Times saying 'Vote Yes to Europe'
The most respected company in the country. All customers love them. They have no vested interest. Really, will that sort of advertisement have any effect?
A bit like Guardian readers writing to American citizens and advising them how to vote in a progressive way.
You're assuming that the desired effect is intended in this country. I expect that it will go down very well in their home market.
And may also motivate Brit expats who can vote......
@patrickwintour: Have to admire the professionalism of Downing Street. Migration statistics today so the Savile inquiry gets to be published. The grid is all
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
Lurking beneath the façade of a mild mannered master strategist.....
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
@patrickwintour: Have to admire the professionalism of Downing Street. Migration statistics today so the Savile inquiry gets to be published. The grid is all
I am sure it is a total coincidence....
I wonder which one the BBC will focus on most heavily.
For those who have trouble accessing PB for the next 4 months, they can replicate the experience by reading Hugo Rifkind's column in today's Times, every day.
And before long you’ll be having arguments. These arguments. Be prepared.
The one about David Cameron “I’m finding it a bit weird being on David Cameron’s side,” somebody who voted Labour will say. “He’s just so awful,” somebody who voted Conservative will say. And then they’ll both frown a bit, and go awfully quiet.
The one about immigration Life holds few greater joys than a fervent Ukipper genuinely expecting you to believe he’s against the EU so we can keep out more Poles and let in more Indians. Treasure these moments.
The one about sovereignty Nobody really wants to argue about sovereignty, but in the end they just can’t help themselves. Which is ironic, really. Traditionally, one person in this argument goes, “I just want us to be able to set our own laws,” and the other one person goes, “Such as?” Then the first person goes, “Such as anything.” And the second person goes, “For example?” And the first person goes, “That’s not the point.” And the second person goes, “No, but seriously, tell me a law.” And then the first person says, “VAT.”
The one about VAT Really, that’s what this is all about. All EU arguments end with VAT.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
Lurking beneath the façade of a mild mannered master strategist.....
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?
Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.
I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.
I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.
We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
I think the Queen is likely to favour the status quo.
I think she's ambivalent and as a risk averse lady would be likely to tilt towards the status quo, but it's not a certainty. She will act on the advice of her Government.
FWIW, I think Philip probably tilts to Leave and Charles quite strongly to Remain.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
Yes, it's a good thing there's no precedent for Cameron inappropriately citing Her Majesty to bolster his side in an important referendum.
I didn't he do that after the event rather than before? But yes, he's number two on my list of politicians who might do it.
Number two? Who's number one?
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
How do you know Her Majesty doesn't support Leave?
Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.
I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.
I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.
We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
I think the Queen is likely to favour the status quo.
I think she's ambivalent and as a risk averse lady would be likely to tilt towards the status quo, but it's not a certainty. She will act on the advice of her Government.
FWIW, I think Philip probably tilts to Leave and Charles quite strongly to Remain.
Surely Phil the Dane would be a Remainer, with the free movement of travel the EU gives him.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
Lurking beneath the façade of a mild mannered master strategist.....
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
Osborne doesn't want an endorsement from Gove. He just wants to hear that he isn't going to stand for PM...
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?
That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
However, on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out. Only Germany paid more on a net basis.
When adjusted for Gross National income or population the British contribution is pretty much the same or less than Germany, France, Italy, the Low Countries or Scandanavia.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
Lurking beneath the façade of a mild mannered master strategist.....
Election Data Asked @UKLabour members how they voted in leadership election and how they would vote in future. They broke thus: https://t.co/4UGrLM0rUO
According to the Guido spreadsheet there are only 28 Tory MPs still to declare with one of those remaining ND until referendum day. Leave are stuck on 140 with most late breakers going for Remain. I'm waiting for 2 of my local, previously eurosceptic MPs to pronounce - new mother and sports minister Tracey Crouch and Kelly Tolhiurst who saw off Reckless in Rochester and Strood.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?
That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
So will he also try to buy Priti off by offering her the Home Office?
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?
That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
So will he also try to buy Priti off by offering her the Home Office?
She might not have a seat. Boundary changes are going to leave her seatless.
According to the Guido spreadsheet there are only 28 Tory MPs still to declare with one of those remaining ND until referendum day. Leave are stuck on 140 with most late breakers going for Remain. I'm waiting for 2 of my local, previously eurosceptic MPs to pronounce - new mother and sports minister Tracey Crouch and Kelly Tolhiurst who saw off Reckless in Rochester and Strood.
I was sure I had read that Kelly Tolhurst was for Leave?
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?
That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
So will he also try to buy Priti off by offering her the Home Office?
She might not have a seat. Boundary changes are going to leave her seatless.
Morning all,
"There are no true friends in politics. We are all sharks circling, and waiting, for traces of blood to appear in the water." - Alan Clark.
@patrickwintour: Have to admire the professionalism of Downing Street. Migration statistics today so the Savile inquiry gets to be published. The grid is all
I am sure it is a total coincidence....
At least they know how to operate a grid. Hello, Corbyn's Labour??
"While the increase in immigration of EU citizens was not statistically significant, there was a statistically significant increase in EU2 immigration, from 40,000 to 55,000. EU2 citizens now account for 21% of total EU immigration compared with 16% in YE September 2014."
EU2 means Romania and Bulgaria. I thought we were told they weren't going to come?
According to the Guido spreadsheet there are only 28 Tory MPs still to declare with one of those remaining ND until referendum day. Leave are stuck on 140 with most late breakers going for Remain. I'm waiting for 2 of my local, previously eurosceptic MPs to pronounce - new mother and sports minister Tracey Crouch and Kelly Tolhiurst who saw off Reckless in Rochester and Strood.
I was sure I had read that Kelly Tolhurst was for Leave?
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?
That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
I couldn't care less if he gets an endorsement from Margaret Thatcher's posthumous soul.
Comments
So lots then...
Leave would be crazy to do it since everything indicated Her Majesty doesn't support Leave and they'd be opening themselves up by suggesting it while the man who faces Cameron across the dispatch box is hardly like to.
Then again he is nuts. You may be right.
Saw in the Standard yesterday that cross rail is going to be called The Elizabeth line and will be Royal purple on the maps. Must have missed that one being muted.
Either way and like it or not the British Royal family is much more major and central in British life than the equivalent in these other countries you mention.
Thought YouGov weighting up the Not Very Interested was something worth watching.
I did the last survey and declared as a 10/10 Interested.
Didn't think much of the forced choices for Leader post Cameron.
Scotland was fundamental to her as she is half-Scottish, loves Scotland, lives there whenever she can, and it went directly against her coronation vows to break up the Union.
I just can't see the same level of passion from her about the EU. The Commonwealth, yes, as it's largely her baby.
I expect she doesn't care too much either way, but will take a cue from her advisors and her Government.
We weren't in the EEC for the first 20 years of her reign, after all.
Which one do you think he is?
A bit like Guardian readers writing to American citizens and advising them how to vote in a progressive way.
Wise words and often found in online lists of quotations, but the TMS diary reports that Einstein never said it. It's been misattributed to him for years.
As Abraham Lincoln once said: "30 per cent of quotes on the internet are made up."
To be in favour of Leave would mean being in favour of going against what the civil service and successive government's for decades have wanted. She's sentient so it's possible, but it would be tremendously out of character.
The president is elected for a six year term, with a maximum two term limit by simple plurality. The big difference is there is no ticket, the president and vice-president are elected independently. Which can mean some interesting results, such as the current administration where the president and vice-president are from different and indeed opposing parties.
Half the 24 seat Senate is elected every three years, this uses the interesting "plurality-at-large" voting system, effectively the whole country is one multi-member constituency. All voters get to pick 12 names, one vote per candidate and the 12 senators with the most votes are selected.
The House of Representatives is also up for re-election, with a parallel voting system, electors get one vote for their local candidate, and one for a party list candidate. 234 Representatives are elected by district, and 58 from the party list (the constitution requires 1 party list seat for every four district seats). Then it gets a bit complicated. If the party passes a 2% threshold, they get one seat, they then get further seats in proportion to the number of votes but no more than 3 seats. If there are any seats left these are given to the parties with less that 2% of the vote in order of their vote share, 1 each. The idea being that the party list part of the seats should give access to the widest possible range of views, noteable "sectoral interests", which usually means a party representing a particular ethnic subgrouping.
We also have local elections with governors, vice governors, mayors all the way down to city council members all standing for election. Here each equivalent of an electoral ward (Barangay) has its own council all of which will be elected this year, of particular note will be the head of this council, the Barangay Captain, which is always a hotly contested position. All politicians from the Barangay Captain up hold real power and patronage, so politics is taken extremely seriously indeed.
100% of quotes on the internet are made up, as are all quotes from everywhere.
Pedant mode off
First race weekend starts on the 18th of March. Apparently, Channel 4 still doesn't have its F1 website up and running.
Hmm. Shall ponder backing those.
The leaked document also confirmed the lack of clear public support for a Scottish Six.
It said focus groups in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Kirkcaldy and Nairn, which were shown the proposals, declared "a strong interest in a UK perspective on UK and international stories".
It added: "Support for a Scottish Six was muted and, at the very least, it is recognised that BBC Scotland would have to address perceived quality issues first".
It said the two new-look bulletins "would clearly be a risk to audience numbers".
http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14300023.Turmoil_at_BBC_Scotland_as_journalists_threaten_to_block__Scottish_Six_/
http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk/article/1384925/ryanair-launches-marketing-campaign-against-eu-brexit
Can’t find where Attlee said it, so iot might have been in conversation or an interview. Attlee actually said despots not demagogues.
#flyingscotsman Thanks to restorers & @railwaymuseum https://t.co/LZmu7KHaYj
Am I wrong?
An will vote yes in a second IndyRef if Britain leaves the EU
FWIW, I think Philip probably tilts to Leave and Charles quite strongly to Remain.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
Could be....
Asked @UKLabour members how they voted in leadership election and how they would vote in future. They broke thus: https://t.co/4UGrLM0rUO
The least likely to vote are BAME, rental, under 35s.
A small piece of spreadsheet work implies the voting electorate (using GE2015 turnout from the Ipsos review) will be divided proportionately as:
18-34: 21.2%
35-54: 36.5%
55-....: 42.3%
A grey pledge is twice as valuable as one from an under 35.
Reading PB this week I got the impression Cameron was the worst leader imaginable. Shocked to find somebody could be worse...
Facing Corbyn, it could be springtime for UKIP. If the purples had someone other than Farage, they'd be in an even better position.
http://newsok.com/article/5480910
Trump 29, Rubio 21, Cruz 20. Big turnout and Trump should win Oklahoma comfortably.
http://www.wfaa.com/news/politics/elections/cruz-trump-tied-in-wfaa-texas-poll/55007805
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
"There are no true friends in politics. We are all sharks circling, and waiting, for traces of blood to appear in the water." - Alan Clark.
http://tinyurl.com/zfukeh3
"While the increase in immigration of EU citizens was not statistically significant, there was a statistically significant increase in EU2 immigration, from 40,000 to 55,000. EU2 citizens now account for 21% of total EU immigration compared with 16% in YE September 2014."
EU2 means Romania and Bulgaria. I thought we were told they weren't going to come?
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/702788419248889856?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
Thirty-two tens of thousands.
853k people aged 16-24 were #NEET in Oct-Dec 2015 - 5k up on previous 3 months but 110K down on year https://t.co/IzAyGJ9qpW
Net migration was 323k in the year ending Sept 15, Immigration = 617k and Emigration = 294k https://t.co/EH3m2GS0hp https://t.co/e2lrCFhgQx
UK service sector contributed to 91% of GDP growth in 2015
69,000 EU "workers" arriving speculatively.
290k people immigrated for work in year ending Sept 2015. 59% had a definite job to go to https://t.co/FV0rQpCLQ5 https://t.co/YPjZEqZ1Oe
There's no way on God's earth I'm voting for him.
Majority of those immigrating for work are EU citizens (60%), but for study are non-EU citizens (71%) https://t.co/yZFCiYObSL