Carswell, unlike some Tories, seems to think Cameron went to the EU and argued for reform in good faith, I see (although he failed, obviously).
Given how often he repeats the point, perhaps 'Take back control' should be the Leave slogan?
He really likes pushing the point about the vast majority of UKIP councillors backing VoteLeave too, doesn't he? I've seen him write it several times, and he brings it up here - was he expecting something different, or is it a swipe at Grassroots Out or something?
Its a swipe at Grassroots out but primarily it is a message to the Electoral Commission who will have to decide which group to give official status to. It is remarkable that practically every UKIP councilor is backing Vote Leave rather than the officially UKIP backed G.O.
Yep. This is why I said that I think UKIP will disintegrate after the referendum.
If LEAVE wins then UKIP will either have to dramatically change or lose a lot of support from those like me who were only interested in it as a means to an end. I would suggest that the Euro driven UKIP membership is perhaps a third of the total at least. For many of us to stay the Carswell tendency would have to win out and I simply don't see that happening.
If REMAIN wins then the blood letting will be catastrophic for the party and I can't see Farage surviving the backlash.
I'm not convinced about the last paragraph. If Farage could survive last May he will shrug off anything.
Not a regular commentator on these sort of things (avoiding work at the moment). But just wanted to thank the website for the interesting podcast. Generally I think "remain" makes more sense - if only for the duty free wine at the French/English border (just imagine going back to limits) However, I think Mr Carswell is an interesting character. So it was great to hear what he thinks and, perhaps disconcertingly, I found myself agreeing with much of it. Sounds like a reasonable bloke. Although you could probably play that game where you change a few words and it means the opposite - but still agree with it.
What surprises me most so far is that those that wish to leave the EU have really not hit on a clear message and clear leadership. Maybe given the current climate that won't matter. But it is like they have been wishing for Christmas so much they forgot to buy any pressies. They are now furiously down the nearest petrol station seeing what they can pick up and hoping to get away with it. I am not sure that the "remain" folk are in that situation. Mind we've got umpteen days until the end of this one and the papers, like the French owned Daily Mail, aren't going to relent.
A contest where the heart leads the head can only be good for the betting folk
Carswell, unlike some Tories, seems to think Cameron went to the EU and argued for reform in good faith, I see (although he failed, obviously).
Given how often he repeats the point, perhaps 'Take back control' should be the Leave slogan?
He really likes pushing the point about the vast majority of UKIP councillors backing VoteLeave too, doesn't he? I've seen him write it several times, and he brings it up here - was he expecting something different, or is it a swipe at Grassroots Out or something?
Its a swipe at Grassroots out but primarily it is a message to the Electoral Commission who will have to decide which group to give official status to. It is remarkable that practically every UKIP councilor is backing Vote Leave rather than the officially UKIP backed G.O.
Yep. This is why I said that I think UKIP will disintegrate after the referendum.
If LEAVE wins then UKIP will either have to dramatically change or lose a lot of support from those like me who were only interested in it as a means to an end. I would suggest that the Euro driven UKIP membership is perhaps a third of the total at least. For many of us to stay the Carswell tendency would have to win out and I simply don't see that happening.
If REMAIN wins then the blood letting will be catastrophic for the party and I can't see Farage surviving the backlash.
Evans' letter of acceptance (of her sacking) is just pathetic.
I also note the absurd Peter Oborne throwing his usual pile of shite at Teresa May.
You cannot make a positive case for REMAIN. All you have is bile.
This is apropos of nothing, as I am committed Leaver, but I always loved the Dennis Healey Own quote:
The good fairy gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intellect. Unfortunately, the bad fairy also made him a shit.'
Do you suspect the photo editor had to get approval from Owen about the choice of picture?
Really surprised that Owen has come out for LEAVE. He has always been the epitome of stay in and reform.
Owen was once a very clever man. He later set up a party that was of refuseniks to the LibDems, prefering the "its my party..." approach. With an ego and arrogance that is hard to contain he now comes out for Leave. What is it about Leave that attracts leaders of personality cult parties?
This is apropos of nothing, as I am committed Leaver, but I always loved the Dennis Healey Own quote:
The good fairy gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intellect. Unfortunately, the bad fairy also made him a shit.'
Your father loves that quote.
He once told me if I ever did any David Owen threads, I had to put in that quote in the thread.
Do you suspect the photo editor had to get approval from Owen about the choice of picture?
Really surprised that Owen has come out for LEAVE. He has always been the epitome of stay in and reform.
He wondered which side would give him another 15 minutes of attention. What a S.o.b !
Was he one of your political hero's,you post disappointment ;-)
Anyone who leaves the Labour Party could never be one of my heroes. He was always a S.o.B. He should have been like Healey and Smith and fought from within.
But as Healey said so correctly. The man is a SHIT.
Do you suspect the photo editor had to get approval from Owen about the choice of picture?
Really surprised that Owen has come out for LEAVE. He has always been the epitome of stay in and reform.
He wondered which side would give him another 15 minutes of attention. What a S.o.b !
Was he one of your political hero's,you post disappointment ;-)
Anyone who leaves the Labour Party could never be one of my heroes. He was always a S.o.B. He should have been like Healey and Smith and fought from within.
But as Healey said so correctly. The man is a SHIT.
“According to BBC records seen by Dame Janet, I was allegedly interviewed about the girls’ diary before her death in 1971 by a very senior figure at the BBC, Bill Cotton Jr.
"I was also, supposedly, interviewed by Brian Neill QC as part of his report in to the Payola scandal at the BBC.
“I have repeatedly told Dame Janet and the BBC I was never interviewed by either man in this context and the BBC records are either very vague or have, conveniently, disappeared.
-----
For those that don't know what the Payola scandal was about,
I don't know why, but I get very worried if I will be able to get any whitewash down at B&Q when I read report authors bringing out the "not in terms of reference" when presented with a difficult question.
Do you suspect the photo editor had to get approval from Owen about the choice of picture?
Really surprised that Owen has come out for LEAVE. He has always been the epitome of stay in and reform.
He wondered which side would give him another 15 minutes of attention. What a S.o.b !
Was he one of your political hero's,you post disappointment ;-)
Anyone who leaves the Labour Party could never be one of my heroes. He was always a S.o.B. He should have been like Healey and Smith and fought from within.
But as Healey said so correctly. The man is a SHIT.
Haven't you voted lib dem ?
Yes in 2010 to help Labour by keeping the Tories out. I did help elect a Lib Dem MP. In 2015, I refused to do so. He lost !
Why does David Owen back Leave? Well he's always been pro-US first, but the thought that came into my head was maybe some Russian or "Russian" "oligarch" had told him to back Leave...and then 2 minutes' research unearthed the info that he's on Alisher Usmanov's payroll.
That said, his work on how US presidents and British prime ministers usually suffer from mental problems looks interesting.
The truth can sometimes squeeze its way out in a limited way in old age, even in the actions of individuals who've lived most of their lives telling lies and being hypocritical. I mean look at Jimmy Carter. They're not all lying evil scum all the way through their entire personalities, completely and utterly, like Cyril Smith say.
About what was expected. But no net change in London, suggesting that Zac doesn't have a hidden registration reserve, as some hoped or feared.
How many Sinn Fein? I believe the real majority currently is 17 once you account for Sinn Fein and Speaker from memory. Would it be 39 in the new boundaries or do Sinn Fein lose one?
Carswell, unlike some Tories, seems to think Cameron went to the EU and argued for reform in good faith, I see (although he failed, obviously).
Given how often he repeats the point, perhaps 'Take back control' should be the Leave slogan?
He really likes pushing the point about the vast majority of UKIP councillors backing VoteLeave too, doesn't he? I've seen him write it several times, and he brings it up here - was he expecting something different, or is it a swipe at Grassroots Out or something?
Its a swipe at Grassroots out but primarily it is a message to the Electoral Commission who will have to decide which group to give official status to. It is remarkable that practically every UKIP councilor is backing Vote Leave rather than the officially UKIP backed G.O.
Yep. This is why I said that I think UKIP will disintegrate after the referendum.
If LEAVE wins then UKIP will either have to dramatically change or lose a lot of support from those like me who were only interested in it as a means to an end. I would suggest that the Euro driven UKIP membership is perhaps a third of the total at least. For many of us to stay the Carswell tendency would have to win out and I simply don't see that happening.
If REMAIN wins then the blood letting will be catastrophic for the party and I can't see Farage surviving the backlash.
I'm not convinced about the last paragraph. If Farage could survive last May he will shrug off anything.
Farage may survive, UKIP may not.
There is no reason those who want Leave can't or shouldn't be a part of the party with about 140 leave MPs rather than 1. Help pick the next PM too.
I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.
Assuming the story is true.
Not just this story, but the way he has behaved in the Commons this week.
This really is getting ridiculous. Cameron is putting winning the EU vote ahead of the good governance of the country. How can you have a situation where no one in the Justice department is allowed access to a significant proportion of their documents for 4 months. Are we simply going to say no Justice decisions can be made for a third of the year?
Cameron is a fecking lunatic.
Well you would say that wouldn't you. You are hardly objective or impartial.
Another great podcast Mr Pedley - Douglas has a great face for Radio! ;-)
I thought heroic spinning from Carswell about the LEAVE campaigns' strength being its 'broad base'.
That's one word for it......
On borders Carswell says we 'need to take back control of our borders'.......but does not specify how we will also 'control Labour mobility' which is also a good thing.....
Good line about 'decades of being a bad tenant - time for us to be a good neighbour'.....
Not a big fan of Nigel '87% didn't vote UKIP at the GE.'
Strong sell for Vote Leave getting the Lead Campaign designation.....
Good advice about not 'Shouting Shrill Certainties' if LEAVE want to persuade people......
Another great podcast Mr Pedley - Douglas has a great face for Radio! ;-)
I thought heroic spinning from Carswell about the LEAVE campaigns' strength being its 'broad base'.
That's one word for it......
On borders Carswell says we 'need to take back control of our borders'.......but does not specify how we will also 'control Labour mobility' which is also a good thing.....
Good line about 'decades of being a bad tenant - time for us to be a good neighbour'.....
Not a big fan of Nigel '87% didn't vote UKIP at the GE.'
Strong sell for Vote Leave getting the Lead Campaign designation.....
Good advice about not 'Shouting Shrill Certainties' if LEAVE want to persuade people......
56% Immigration should be reduced a lot 21% Immigration should be reduced a little
Two years ago, before Merkel idiocy, anyone think it is better or worse. Every time a politician is challenged about this on the TV they answer that it is out of their hands because of free movement in the EU. I think the voters understand the connection.
The nice well educated people on here don't think immigration can win it. But then we don't have that many working class tradesmen posting on here
We understand the "Southam" argument here that all the politicians that will make the decision will go for the most EU solution they can get away with given the referendum result, so either more EU, or EEA plus bilaterals. That might be playing with fire, the sense of betrayal might be severe. Look out for the "Trump" candidates in 2020, and I no don't think it will be Farage.
Another great podcast Mr Pedley - Douglas has a great face for Radio! ;-)
I thought heroic spinning from Carswell about the LEAVE campaigns' strength being its 'broad base'.
That's one word for it......
On borders Carswell says we 'need to take back control of our borders'.......but does not specify how we will also 'control Labour mobility' which is also a good thing.....
Good line about 'decades of being a bad tenant - time for us to be a good neighbour'.....
Not a big fan of Nigel '87% didn't vote UKIP at the GE.'
Strong sell for Vote Leave getting the Lead Campaign designation.....
Good advice about not 'Shouting Shrill Certainties' if LEAVE want to persuade people......
We understand the "Southam" argument here that all the politicians that will make the decision will go for the most EU solution they can get away with given the referendum result, so either more EU, or EEA plus bilaterals. That might be playing with fire, the sense of betrayal might be severe. Look out for the "Trump" candidates in 2020, and I no don't think it will be Farage.
Then its up to at least one of the LEAVE campaigns to put Immigration at the heart of its argument - get the support to be appointed Lead Campaign and to win the referendum on that basis - explicitly ruling out any future which involves the four freedoms.
The nice well educated people on here don't think immigration can win it. But then we don't have that many working class tradesmen posting on here
We understand the "Southam" argument here that all the politicians that will make the decision will go for the most EU solution they can get away with given the referendum result, so either more EU, or EEA plus bilaterals. That might be playing with fire, the sense of betrayal might be severe. Look out for the "Trump" candidates in 2020, and I no don't think it will be Farage.
Nice well educated people as you put it vote. Especially in a low turnout election. Ignore our views at your peril.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
56% may think immigration should be reduced a lot but that doesn't mean they'll all vote Leave. Don't fall down the same trap as Labour's 35% strategy.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
This has been done to death for years as well and its misses two important words. 51% of people who vote. If leavers turn out more readily that remainers, they need much less than 51%. This referendum isn't going to be won on the issues, it's going to be won on differential turnout, remain nutters vs leave nutters plus how many waverers either side can persuade it matters enough to get off the sofa.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
Precisely, so it is in the interest of Leave to the voters to sleep so only the zealots on each side turn out, because they have more of those.
Nah, couldn't work for multiple reasons.
1: Turnout was over 42% for a referendum on AV for which no normal person is a zealot (apologies to TSE). Turnout is inevitably going to be considerably higher for this no matter what. 2: Have you tried telling Leave zealots to shut up? Good luck with that one! 3: The media love this. It's going to dominate the news for the next 4 months until the vote.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
Precisely, so it is in the interest of Leave to the voters to sleep so only the zealots on each side turn out, because they have more of those.
Nah, couldn't work for multiple reasons.
1: Turnout was over 42% for a referendum on AV for which no normal person is a zealot (apologies to TSE). Turnout is inevitably going to be considerably higher for this no matter what. 2: Have you tried telling Leave zealots to shut up? Good luck with that one! 3: The media love this. It's going to dominate the news for the next 4 months until the vote.
4. ABC1 voters are the ones who turnout when others do not. They are pro-Remain. WWC males are notoriously hard to get to turnout and are more likely to vote Leave. A low turnout is not certain to support Leave (and to an extent undermines the validity of the referendum).
Furthermore don't assume that differential turnout automatically helps Leave. Especially if the issue is appealing to those "working class" concerned by immigration rather than "nice educated people" and then relying upon turnout. The latter vote.
In the 2015 general election AB social class voters had 75% turnout versus 57% turnout for DE voters. My guess which aligns with what you wrote is that it is the latter that are more concerned by migration but far, far less likely to bother to vote. In fact the divide is even worse if you look at males, 77% of AB males vote versus 56% of DE males.
Put another way AB males regardless of age have the same turnout as 55-64 year olds while DE voters regardless of age have the same turnout as 25-34 year olds. Low turnout is not automatically your friend if that is how you want to play it.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
Precisely, so it is in the interest of Leave to the voters to sleep so only the zealots on each side turn out, because they have more of those.
Nah, couldn't work for multiple reasons.
1: Turnout was over 42% for a referendum on AV for which no normal person is a zealot (apologies to TSE). Turnout is inevitably going to be considerably higher for this no matter what. 2: Have you tried telling Leave zealots to shut up? Good luck with that one! 3: The media love this. It's going to dominate the news for the next 4 months until the vote.
4. ABC1 voters are the ones who turnout when others do not. They are pro-Remain. WWC males are notoriously hard to get to turnout and are more likely to vote Leave. A low turnout is not certain to support Leave (and to an extent undermines the validity of the referendum).
Who turned out for the Kippers last Euro elections, was that WWC or pissed off ABC1 registering a protest vote ?
Incidentally immigration is of the most concern to DE people and the least to the AB people. Furthermore the reasons for concern vary dramatically, of the many DE people who are concerned a prime reason for concern is jobs and to a lesser extent benefits and housing.
Whereas for the smaller subset of more well off people who are concerned about the concern is benefits/public services and jobs and housing matter far less.
Hence I guess the renegotiation on benefits. For the ABC1 voters who actually turn up to vote that are concerned about immigration, Cameron has tried to shoot the fox of the main reason they're concerned. The C2DE voters whose concern about jobs can't be resolved on the other hand don't bother to vote at the best of times.
So relying on immigration and turnout is doomed to failure for multiple reasons. There is no easy win here, it needs to be a hard fought win and you need arguments that appeal to those who bother to vote.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
Precisely, so it is in the interest of Leave to the voters to sleep so only the zealots on each side turn out, because they have more of those.
Nah, couldn't work for multiple reasons.
1: Turnout was over 42% for a referendum on AV for which no normal person is a zealot (apologies to TSE). Turnout is inevitably going to be considerably higher for this no matter what. 2: Have you tried telling Leave zealots to shut up? Good luck with that one! 3: The media love this. It's going to dominate the news for the next 4 months until the vote.
4. ABC1 voters are the ones who turnout when others do not. They are pro-Remain. WWC males are notoriously hard to get to turnout and are more likely to vote Leave. A low turnout is not certain to support Leave (and to an extent undermines the validity of the referendum).
Who turned out for the Kippers last Euro elections, was that WWC or pissed off ABC1 registering a protest vote ?
It was a mix and included protest votes and the only reason UKIP so-called won the vote is because it was split more than four ways. UKIP didn't get anywhere close to 51% of the vote which is what will be needed in the referendum, they got 26.6% and 4 million votes.
No2AV got 13 million votes on a significantly lower turnout than this election will get.
The nice well educated people on here don't think immigration can win it. But then we don't have that many working class tradesmen posting on here
We understand the "Southam" argument here that all the politicians that will make the decision will go for the most EU solution they can get away with given the referendum result, so either more EU, or EEA plus bilaterals. That might be playing with fire, the sense of betrayal might be severe. Look out for the "Trump" candidates in 2020, and I no don't think it will be Farage.
Nice well educated people as you put it vote. Especially in a low turnout election. Ignore our views at your peril.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
56% may think immigration should be reduced a lot but that doesn't mean they'll all vote Leave. Don't fall down the same trap as Labour's 35% strategy.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
Precisely, so it is in the interest of Leave to the voters to sleep so only the zealots on each side turn out, because they have more of those.
Nah, couldn't work for multiple reasons.
1: Turnout was over 42% for a referendum on AV for which no normal person is a zealot (apologies to TSE). Turnout is inevitably going to be considerably higher for this no matter what. 2: Have you tried telling Leave zealots to shut up? Good luck with that one! 3: The media love this. It's going to dominate the news for the next 4 months until the vote.
4. ABC1 voters are the ones who turnout when others do not. They are pro-Remain. WWC males are notoriously hard to get to turnout and are more likely to vote Leave. A low turnout is not certain to support Leave (and to an extent undermines the validity of the referendum).
LOL I'd missed your post. Guess we had the same train of thought.
Incidentally immigration is of the most concern to DE people and the least to the AB people. Furthermore the reasons for concern vary dramatically, of the many DE people who are concerned a prime reason for concern is jobs and to a lesser extent benefits and housing.
Whereas for the smaller subset of more well off people who are concerned about the concern is benefits/public services and jobs and housing matter far less.
Hence I guess the renegotiation on benefits. For the ABC1 voters who actually turn up to vote that are concerned about immigration, Cameron has tried to shoot the fox of the main reason they're concerned. The C2DE voters whose concern about jobs can't be resolved on the other hand don't bother to vote at the best of times.
So relying on immigration and turnout is doomed to failure for multiple reasons. There is no easy win here, it needs to be a hard fought win and you need arguments that appeal to those who bother to vote.
I think people are, genuinely, very concerned about immigration.
However, enough of them won't prioritise voting for its reduction if they share a fear that in doing so that will also lead to a big reduction in the size of their wallets.
It's a classic community v. personal interest issue, and why polls often underestimate the Tories over Labour, because, fundamentally, the Tories offer more reassurance on home economics.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
"Many of the underlying polling figures suggest that the Remain campaign may be in a stronger position than the topline figures imply. On most measures people expect Britain to be worse off if we leave the European Union – leaving is seen as being bad for British jobs, bad for British influence in the world and bad for the economy"
I just read this from your yougov link. If 'Leave' continue Michael Gove's strategy of plugging loss of sovereignty I imgine the above will trump them every time.
I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.
Assuming the story is true.
Not just this story, but the way he has behaved in the Commons this week.
This really is getting ridiculous. Cameron is putting winning the EU vote ahead of the good governance of the country. How can you have a situation where no one in the Justice department is allowed access to a significant proportion of their documents for 4 months. Are we simply going to say no Justice decisions can be made for a third of the year?
Cameron is a fecking lunatic.
Well you would say that wouldn't you. You are hardly objective or impartial.
I think people are, genuinely, very concerned about immigration.
However, enough of them won't prioritise voting for its reduction if they share a fear that in doing so that will also lead to a big reduction in the size of their wallets.
It's a classic community v. personal interest issue, and why polls often underestimate the Tories over Labour, because, fundamentally, the Tories offer more reassurance on home economics.
It's enough to make a big difference.
Well said. The Tories also disproportionately appeal to those demographics who vote, like Remain almost certainly will if Leave follows Indigo/Farage's path.
I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.
Assuming the story is true.
Not just this story, but the way he has behaved in the Commons this week.
This really is getting ridiculous. Cameron is putting winning the EU vote ahead of the good governance of the country. How can you have a situation where no one in the Justice department is allowed access to a significant proportion of their documents for 4 months. Are we simply going to say no Justice decisions can be made for a third of the year?
Cameron is a fecking lunatic.
Well you would say that wouldn't you. You are hardly objective or impartial.
Really? I am on record here of saying often that I wanted a LEAVE victory bit Cameron to stay because outside of the EU issue I thought he was a very good PM. I have praised him for many of the decisions he has made. Unlike you I actually think about the issues rather than blindly following a party line.
Of the two of us it is very clear that it is you who are a blinkered part fanatic rather than me.
I think people are, genuinely, very concerned about immigration.
However, enough of them won't prioritise voting for its reduction if they share a fear that in doing so that will also lead to a big reduction in the size of their wallets.
It's a classic community v. personal interest issue, and why polls often underestimate the Tories over Labour, because, fundamentally, the Tories offer more reassurance on home economics.
It's enough to make a big difference.
Well said. The Tories also disproportionately appeal to those demographics who vote, like Remain almost certainly will if Leave follows Indigo/Farage's path.
As I have said, I am relaxed about immigration as such, being married to an immigrant with immigrant children has that effect on you What exercises me is multiculturalism vs integration, the need to accept any EU criminal or vagrant that comes here, and the inability to throw out people that are conspicuously detrimental the country by their presence.
I am also extremely pissed off that we continue to let illegals in to the disadvantage of people waiting patiently in line. I am closely involved in a number of legal visa applications here, which are continually bounced back on the flimsiest of pretexts, and much more so this year than previously (18% rise in rejection on technicalities this year). The government continues to make legal applications more difficult, appeals less likely to succeed and both legal applications and appeals dramatically more expensive. At the same time they make appeals easier and cheaper for illegals already in the country. It's a disgrace.
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
For those who have trouble accessing PB for the next 4 months, they can replicate the experience by reading Hugo Rifkind's column in today's Times, every day.
And before long you’ll be having arguments. These arguments. Be prepared.
The one about David Cameron “I’m finding it a bit weird being on David Cameron’s side,” somebody who voted Labour will say. “He’s just so awful,” somebody who voted Conservative will say. And then they’ll both frown a bit, and go awfully quiet.
The one about immigration Life holds few greater joys than a fervent Ukipper genuinely expecting you to believe he’s against the EU so we can keep out more Poles and let in more Indians. Treasure these moments.
The one about sovereignty Nobody really wants to argue about sovereignty, but in the end they just can’t help themselves. Which is ironic, really. Traditionally, one person in this argument goes, “I just want us to be able to set our own laws,” and the other one person goes, “Such as?” Then the first person goes, “Such as anything.” And the second person goes, “For example?” And the first person goes, “That’s not the point.” And the second person goes, “No, but seriously, tell me a law.” And then the first person says, “VAT.”
The one about VAT Really, that’s what this is all about. All EU arguments end with VAT.
For those who have trouble accessing PB for the next 4 months, they can replicate the experience by reading Hugo Rifkind's column in today's Times, every day.
And before long you’ll be having arguments. These arguments. Be prepared.
The one about David Cameron “I’m finding it a bit weird being on David Cameron’s side,” somebody who voted Labour will say. “He’s just so awful,” somebody who voted Conservative will say. And then they’ll both frown a bit, and go awfully quiet.
The one about immigration Life holds few greater joys than a fervent Ukipper genuinely expecting you to believe he’s against the EU so we can keep out more Poles and let in more Indians. Treasure these moments.
The one about sovereignty Nobody really wants to argue about sovereignty, but in the end they just can’t help themselves. Which is ironic, really. Traditionally, one person in this argument goes, “I just want us to be able to set our own laws,” and the other one person goes, “Such as?” Then the first person goes, “Such as anything.” And the second person goes, “For example?” And the first person goes, “That’s not the point.” And the second person goes, “No, but seriously, tell me a law.” And then the first person says, “VAT.”
The one about VAT Really, that’s what this is all about. All EU arguments end with VAT.
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
If you mean Middle Class as AB and Working Class as DE (I hate both terms personally):
A middle class voter (75%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%) A working class voter (57%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old.(54%)
A homeowner (77%) is exactly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%) A private renter (51%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old (54%)
I'd be curious to see the detail on a phone poll showing turnout favours Leave.
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
The fundamentals are pretty clear to me. Leave have not done enough, and are not doing enough, to run this very close with a chance of winning this.
Relying on the EU migration crisis and socking it to Cameron won't be enough, IMHO.
The electoral commission will not officially nominate the official campaigns until 1st April. Are we really going to have more than another month of this chaos from Leave? If so the official nomination will be entirely academic.
The egos on the Leave side are many and various and the addition of David Owen is hardly likely to increase the sense of harmony and unity. Most claim that this is the biggest decision that the country will have faced in the last 40 years. But it is still not important enough, apparently, to stop playing really stupid and destructive games.
Rather than moaning about Cameron leading the remain campaign and standing up for government policy the various Leave factions need to focus on giving the people of this country a genuine and serious choice. To date that has not happened and the inevitable conclusion is going to be that whilst the EU is a very long way short of perfect staying in is the only sensible option.
I always thought that Leave would have some of these problems but the last week has been beyond my worst nightmares. Even in this podcast we have UKIPs only MP disagreeing with Farage about who the leading group should be. I was too young to vote the last time and will probably be dead before this comes around again. Is this one chance to define our future as a nation really to be a total farce?
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
However, on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out. Only Germany paid more on a net basis.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
Remain also appears to have a higher potential level of support. Testing alternative scenarios, we found there was more potential for the Remain vote to rise than for the Leave vote to rise.
Precisely, so it is in the interest of Leave to the voters to sleep so only the zealots on each side turn out, because they have more of those.
Nah, couldn't work for multiple reasons.
1: Turnout was over 42% for a referendum on AV for which no normal person is a zealot (apologies to TSE). Turnout is inevitably going to be considerably higher for this no matter what. 2: Have you tried telling Leave zealots to shut up? Good luck with that one! 3: The media love this. It's going to dominate the news for the next 4 months until the vote.
4. ABC1 voters are the ones who turnout when others do not. They are pro-Remain. WWC males are notoriously hard to get to turnout and are more likely to vote Leave. A low turnout is not certain to support Leave (and to an extent undermines the validity of the referendum).
Who turned out for the Kippers last Euro elections, was that WWC or pissed off ABC1 registering a protest vote ?
A bit of both (though most voters voted for parties of in).
The Euro elections are generally thought of as a free hit without consequence on how we are governed (slightly discrediting the idea that the majority of laws are made in Brussels). This referendum will have real effect whichever way it goes and will be decided by every voter not just those in Midland marginals like Broxtowe. That is why I expect turnout to be of the same order as the GE.
It is worth noting that it was the relatively low turnout areas in Scotland (Glasgow and Dundee) that were the only ones with a majority for Yes in the Sindyref, though even there the turnout was higher than it has been for decades.
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
The electoral commission will not officially nominate the official campaigns until 1st April. Are we really going to have more than another month of this chaos from Leave? If so the official nomination will be entirely academic.
The egos on the Leave side are many and various and the addition of David Owen is hardly likely to increase the sense of harmony and unity. Most claim that this is the biggest decision that the country will have faced in the last 40 years. But it is still not important enough, apparently, to stop playing really stupid and destructive games.
Rather than moaning about Cameron leading the remain campaign and standing up for government policy the various Leave factions need to focus on giving the people of this country a genuine and serious choice. To date that has not happened and the inevitable conclusion is going to be that whilst the EU is a very long way short of perfect staying in is the only sensible option.
I always thought that Leave would have some of these problems but the last week has been beyond my worst nightmares. Even in this podcast we have UKIPs only MP disagreeing with Farage about who the leading group should be. I was too young to vote the last time and will probably be dead before this comes around again. Is this one chance to define our future as a nation really to be a total farce?
It's beyond depressing, isn't it?
Not that anyone cares or listens to what I think, but I shall be writing to Vote Leave this weekend.
There's plenty of bad EU laws. Other than VAT (and surely levels of taxation are a big deal?), there's price floors for food products, the bankers' bonus cap, the Alternative Investment Management restrictions, poorly set fisheries quotas, temporary workers directive. Thats just off top of my head. Seems like theres some journos who don't speak to people outside their bubble.
For those who have trouble accessing PB for the next 4 months, they can replicate the experience by reading Hugo Rifkind's column in today's Times, every day.
Or revisit SINDYREF.....
"What about the currency Four Freedoms?"
"Thats neither here nor there. Whats important is that we are in control of our future and our borders"
"So will we use the pound control of our borders?
"Of course! the rUK EU/EEA/EFTA are bound to agree to that!
"What if they don't"
"Project Fear! Project Fear! Project Fear! There's no point in debating with you Unionist Europhile fanatics! What people are interested in is FREEDOM.....
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
However, on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out. Only Germany paid more on a net basis.
When adjusted for Gross National income or population the British contribution is pretty much the same or less than Germany, France, Italy, the Low Countries or Scandanavia.
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
Incidentally, good afternoon from the Philippines where we celebrate the 30th Anniversary of the People Power Revolution with a public holiday (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_Power_Revolution). Its also presidential, senatorial, house and local election year, so the place is festooned in political posters to the extent you would not believe. If anyone is interested I can talk about the processes, but it would be a foolish expat who expressed any opinions on the candidates or parties involved, politics is taken extremely seriously here, sometimes dangerously so.
I've been fortunate enough to spend time with Douglas Carswell, he is a very measured man, his decision to leave the Conservative Party wasn't petulant, his decision is justified by Cameron's stance now. Where that leaves Ukip is hard to say. The funding of a political party is incredibly difficult, Ukip ran out of money a month before the GE and concentrated all resources in Thanet. They are now totally skint.
In its current form it is finished, perhaps in time it can renew itself. I fear that those of us who hope for a small state, low tax, libertarian party are in a tiny minority.
As somebody who has also spent a lot of time with Nigel Farage I hope we see a dignified departure from him, he's done so much, but I doubt it.
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
If you mean Middle Class as AB and Working Class as DE (I hate both terms personally):
A middle class voter (75%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%) A working class voter (57%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old.(54%)
A homeowner (77%) is exactly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%) A private renter (51%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old (54%)
I'd be curious to see the detail on a phone poll showing turnout favours Leave.
The Latest Ipsos MORI poll gives Remain a 32% lead among those certain not to vote, and a 7% lead among those certain to vote.
Yougov have Leave 74% certain to vote, Remain 64%.
At the moment, certainty to vote favours Leave (see the MORI and Yougov polls). The gap between old and young voters' turnout (and registration) is bigger than the gap between middle and working class voters' turnout. A 60 year old working class voter is probably more likely to vote than a 24 year old middle class voter.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
A middle class Remainer who is a pensioner will be more likely to vote than a working class pensioner minded to Leave and a middle class thirty year old who backs Remain more likely to vote than a working class thirty year old who backs Brexit. At the general election and in indyref the Tories and No had a clear advantage on turnout as they were backed by both the old and the middle-class who have higher turnout while the young and working class, who have a lower turnout, favoured Labour and Yes respectively. In EU Ref neither side will have as big a turnout advantage as while the old back Leave the middle-class back Remain
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
However, on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out. Only Germany paid more on a net basis.
Incidentally, good afternoon from the Philippines where we celebrate the 30th Anniversary of the People Power Revolution with a public holiday (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_Power_Revolution). Its also presidential, senatorial, house and local election year, so the place is festooned in political posters to the extent you would not believe. If anyone is interested I can talk about the processes, but it would be a foolish expat who expressed any opinions on the candidates or parties involved, politics is taken extremely seriously here, sometimes dangerously so.
The electoral commission will not officially nominate the official campaigns until 1st April. Are we really going to have more than another month of this chaos from Leave? If so the official nomination will be entirely academic.
The egos on the Leave side are many and various and the addition of David Owen is hardly likely to increase the sense of harmony and unity. Most claim that this is the biggest decision that the country will have faced in the last 40 years. But it is still not important enough, apparently, to stop playing really stupid and destructive games.
Rather than moaning about Cameron leading the remain campaign and standing up for government policy the various Leave factions need to focus on giving the people of this country a genuine and serious choice. To date that has not happened and the inevitable conclusion is going to be that whilst the EU is a very long way short of perfect staying in is the only sensible option.
I always thought that Leave would have some of these problems but the last week has been beyond my worst nightmares. Even in this podcast we have UKIPs only MP disagreeing with Farage about who the leading group should be. I was too young to vote the last time and will probably be dead before this comes around again. Is this one chance to define our future as a nation really to be a total farce?
It's beyond depressing, isn't it?
Not that anyone cares or listens to what I think, but I shall be writing to Vote Leave this weekend.
Might make me feel better.
Would Vote Leave be your preference for Lead Campaign?
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
However, on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out. Only Germany paid more on a net basis.
When adjusted for Gross National income or population the British contribution is pretty much the same or less than Germany, France, Italy, the Low Countries or Scandanavia.
So what? We are bigger than the Low Countries so contribute more. In a standard organisation he who pays the piper calls the tunes but it must be abundantly clear to everyone by now that despite paying our tunes are left unplayed.
For those who have trouble accessing PB for the next 4 months, they can replicate the experience by reading Hugo Rifkind's column in today's Times, every day.
And before long you’ll be having arguments. These arguments. Be prepared.
The one about David Cameron “I’m finding it a bit weird being on David Cameron’s side,” somebody who voted Labour will say. “He’s just so awful,” somebody who voted Conservative will say. And then they’ll both frown a bit, and go awfully quiet.
The one about immigration Life holds few greater joys than a fervent Ukipper genuinely expecting you to believe he’s against the EU so we can keep out more Poles and let in more Indians. Treasure these moments.
The one about sovereignty Nobody really wants to argue about sovereignty, but in the end they just can’t help themselves. Which is ironic, really. Traditionally, one person in this argument goes, “I just want us to be able to set our own laws,” and the other one person goes, “Such as?” Then the first person goes, “Such as anything.” And the second person goes, “For example?” And the first person goes, “That’s not the point.” And the second person goes, “No, but seriously, tell me a law.” And then the first person says, “VAT.”
The one about VAT Really, that’s what this is all about. All EU arguments end with VAT.
Why do the Leavers such as Douglas Carswell in the podcast say Britain is the second biggest contributer to the EU when all the charts indicate it's 4th or with the rebate 5th?
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
Not a huge difference, I would think. It's not going to be on the scale of a jubilee or royal wedding is it (is it)?
Of course it's possible that that event, ahem, doesn't occur. That might have an effect.
The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
I don't think that's true. The two courses are potentially radically different in economic outcome. The honest answer is that we don't necessarily know how.
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
It will be a very foolish politician who tries even obliquely to make capital out of the Queen's birthday for a poxy referendum. Patriotic Brits will celebrate the day and see it as part of the country's culture without linking it to the referendum vote.
It may be a question of it it affects matters regardless of whether someone tries to make capital of it. Events can impact the national mood, and thus the vote, without anyone intending them too perhaps.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
In the short term Leave will probably have some temporary pain - currency depression, higher inflation & reduced business investment while uncertainty over renegotiation carries on.......longer term, who knows, but provided Britain retains access to the single market, there won't be much difference longer term.
Of course if we end up out of the single market (with complete control of our borders) I struggle to see how we will be anything but poorer.....
I've been fortunate enough to spend time with Douglas Carswell, he is a very measured man, his decision to leave the Conservative Party wasn't petulant, his decision is justified by Cameron's stance now. Where that leaves Ukip is hard to say. The funding of a political party is incredibly difficult, Ukip ran out of money a month before the GE and concentrated all resources in Thanet. They are now totally skint.
In its current form it is finished, perhaps in time it can renew itself. I fear that those of us who hope for a small state, low tax, libertarian party are in a tiny minority.
As somebody who has also spent a lot of time with Nigel Farage I hope we see a dignified departure from him, he's done so much, but I doubt it.
I thought he came accross OK though I can't understand why an intelligent person would use such a hackneyed line as "who the heck do these people think they are trying to live our lives for us on tax free salaries in Brussels" . When he moved on and said we should never criticize immigrants who are only trying to improve their circmstances...I started to like him more
One final thought on demographics and turnout, based on Sean's comment about a young middle class individual versus and older working class one ... I am curious if anyone knows what proportion of each age-group belongs to which social class?
As people age they not only mature but can change their occupation.
Someone who is unemployed at 18 (E) Could be working in a semi-skilled or unskilled profession at 25 (D). By 35 they may have become skilled at what they do (C2). By 45 they could be supervisory to the next generation (C1) - now middle class. By 55 they could have become managerial (B) Before they retire they may have even reached higher management (A)
While it's not a one-way street people try and progress through their careers rather than go backwards so I wonder if the elderly could be more likely to vote because they're more middle class and/or if the middle class could be more likely to vote because they're older.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
In the short term Leave will probably have some temporary pain - currency depression, higher inflation & reduced business investment while uncertainty over renegotiation carries on.......longer term, who knows, but provided Britain retains access to the single market, there won't be much difference longer term.
Of course if we end up out of the single market (with complete control of our borders) I struggle to see how we will be anything but poorer.....
Other English-speaking countries like the USA, Australia and Canada are significantly richer than us by GDP per capita without having French social policies foisted upon them. Do you think they're richer than us despite not being in the EU?
The electoral commission will not officially nominate the official campaigns until 1st April. Are we really going to have more than another month of this chaos from Leave? If so the official nomination will be entirely academic.
The egos on the Leave side are many and various and the addition of David Owen is hardly likely to increase the sense of harmony and unity. Most claim that this is the biggest decision that the country will have faced in the last 40 years. But it is still not important enough, apparently, to stop playing really stupid and destructive games.
Rather than moaning about Cameron leading the remain campaign and standing up for government policy the various Leave factions need to focus on giving the people of this country a genuine and serious choice. To date that has not happened and the inevitable conclusion is going to be that whilst the EU is a very long way short of perfect staying in is the only sensible option.
I always thought that Leave would have some of these problems but the last week has been beyond my worst nightmares. Even in this podcast we have UKIPs only MP disagreeing with Farage about who the leading group should be. I was too young to vote the last time and will probably be dead before this comes around again. Is this one chance to define our future as a nation really to be a total farce?
It's beyond depressing, isn't it?
Not that anyone cares or listens to what I think, but I shall be writing to Vote Leave this weekend.
Might make me feel better.
Would Vote Leave be your preference for Lead Campaign?
A thought which occurred to me after a community events meeting last night. A few days before the Referendum there is going to be a big “patriotic” event, the celebration of the Queen’s 90th birthday. Will that affect the result and how. Be proiud of our “specialness” for example, or won’t it make any difference?
The Dutch, the Spanish, the Belgians, the Swedes, the Danes and Luxembourg all have monarchies too and the Queen probably backs Remain (though Philip likely backs Leave)
Comments
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/tony-blackburn-sacked-bbc-sex-7435747
Not a regular commentator on these sort of things (avoiding work at the moment). But just wanted to thank the website for the interesting podcast. Generally I think "remain" makes more sense - if only for the duty free wine at the French/English border (just imagine going back to limits) However, I think Mr Carswell is an interesting character. So it was great to hear what he thinks and, perhaps disconcertingly, I found myself agreeing with much of it. Sounds like a reasonable bloke. Although you could probably play that game where you change a few words and it means the opposite - but still agree with it.
What surprises me most so far is that those that wish to leave the EU have really not hit on a clear message and clear leadership. Maybe given the current climate that won't matter. But it is like they have been wishing for Christmas so much they forgot to buy any pressies. They are now furiously down the nearest petrol station seeing what they can pick up and hoping to get away with it. I am not sure that the "remain" folk are in that situation. Mind we've got umpteen days until the end of this one and the papers, like the French owned Daily Mail, aren't going to relent.
A contest where the heart leads the head can only be good for the betting folk
Jim the Lurker
The good fairy gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intellect. Unfortunately, the bad fairy also made him a shit.'
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/270672-trump-lashes-out-at-romney-hes-a-fool
Romney attacked him on his tax returns and Trump is counter attacking.
After rolling over the Pope, G.W. Bush, Fox News, and countless others, how long do I give Romney before he also gets run over by Trump ?
He once told me if I ever did any David Owen threads, I had to put in that quote in the thread.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/03/my-favourite-denis-healey-quotation-on-david-owen/
But as Healey said so correctly. The man is a SHIT.
“According to BBC records seen by Dame Janet, I was allegedly interviewed about the girls’ diary before her death in 1971 by a very senior figure at the BBC, Bill Cotton Jr.
"I was also, supposedly, interviewed by Brian Neill QC as part of his report in to the Payola scandal at the BBC.
“I have repeatedly told Dame Janet and the BBC I was never interviewed by either man in this context and the BBC records are either very vague or have, conveniently, disappeared.
-----
For those that don't know what the Payola scandal was about,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/jimmy-savile/9623109/Jimmy-Savile-Secret-of-BBCs-first-sex-scandal.html
More evidence of something seriously rotten at the BBC in the 70's and not just kiddie fiddling.
http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5769/janet-smith-clashes-with-dj-a7-over-abuse-inquiry-at-bbc
I am rather glad that the lady who looked into the Rochdale grooming scandal didn't take that approach.
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/donald-trump-lights-out-video-162842597.html
That said, his work on how US presidents and British prime ministers usually suffer from mental problems looks interesting.
The truth can sometimes squeeze its way out in a limited way in old age, even in the actions of individuals who've lived most of their lives telling lies and being hypocritical. I mean look at Jimmy Carter. They're not all lying evil scum all the way through their entire personalities, completely and utterly, like Cyril Smith say.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35655743
They haven't paid anything yet and it is just start of what could be a long winded negotiation.
Embarrassing, embarrassing, embarrassing, embarrassing, embarrassing.
He doesn't care. They sense it. He's totally free from all convention and all artifice.
He's a clown, a sage, a prankster, and the uncle you don't bring into polite company, all rolled into one.
And they love him for it...
There is no reason those who want Leave can't or shouldn't be a part of the party with about 140 leave MPs rather than 1. Help pick the next PM too.
I thought heroic spinning from Carswell about the LEAVE campaigns' strength being its 'broad base'.
That's one word for it......
On borders Carswell says we 'need to take back control of our borders'.......but does not specify how we will also 'control Labour mobility' which is also a good thing.....
Good line about 'decades of being a bad tenant - time for us to be a good neighbour'.....
Not a big fan of Nigel '87% didn't vote UKIP at the GE.'
Strong sell for Vote Leave getting the Lead Campaign designation.....
Good advice about not 'Shouting Shrill Certainties' if LEAVE want to persuade people......
56% Immigration should be reduced a lot
21% Immigration should be reduced a little
Two years ago, before Merkel idiocy, anyone think it is better or worse. Every time a politician is challenged about this on the TV they answer that it is out of their hands because of free movement in the EU. I think the voters understand the connection.
The nice well educated people on here don't think immigration can win it. But then we don't have that many working class tradesmen posting on here
We understand the "Southam" argument here that all the politicians that will make the decision will go for the most EU solution they can get away with given the referendum result, so either more EU, or EEA plus bilaterals. That might be playing with fire, the sense of betrayal might be severe. Look out for the "Trump" candidates in 2020, and I no don't think it will be Farage.
The immigration argument has been done to death for years, but it hasn't got Leave to 51%. To get to 51% you need more than just that.
56% may think immigration should be reduced a lot but that doesn't mean they'll all vote Leave. Don't fall down the same trap as Labour's 35% strategy.
Ironically it might have been smart for Leave to have run a "nothing to see here move along" campaign, put the voters to sleep, and then rely on the zeal of the true believers of leave which will clearly outnumber the true believers of remain.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/24/yougov-view-eu-referendum-polling/
1: Turnout was over 42% for a referendum on AV for which no normal person is a zealot (apologies to TSE). Turnout is inevitably going to be considerably higher for this no matter what.
2: Have you tried telling Leave zealots to shut up? Good luck with that one!
3: The media love this. It's going to dominate the news for the next 4 months until the vote.
In the 2015 general election AB social class voters had 75% turnout versus 57% turnout for DE voters. My guess which aligns with what you wrote is that it is the latter that are more concerned by migration but far, far less likely to bother to vote. In fact the divide is even worse if you look at males, 77% of AB males vote versus 56% of DE males.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
Put another way AB males regardless of age have the same turnout as 55-64 year olds while DE voters regardless of age have the same turnout as 25-34 year olds. Low turnout is not automatically your friend if that is how you want to play it.
Whereas for the smaller subset of more well off people who are concerned about the concern is benefits/public services and jobs and housing matter far less.
Hence I guess the renegotiation on benefits. For the ABC1 voters who actually turn up to vote that are concerned about immigration, Cameron has tried to shoot the fox of the main reason they're concerned. The C2DE voters whose concern about jobs can't be resolved on the other hand don't bother to vote at the best of times.
So relying on immigration and turnout is doomed to failure for multiple reasons. There is no easy win here, it needs to be a hard fought win and you need arguments that appeal to those who bother to vote.
EDIT: Link to where I got this posts data from, see figure 10: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri-perceptions-and-reality-immigration-report-summary-2013.pdf
No2AV got 13 million votes on a significantly lower turnout than this election will get.
However, enough of them won't prioritise voting for its reduction if they share a fear that in doing so that will also lead to a big reduction in the size of their wallets.
It's a classic community v. personal interest issue, and why polls often underestimate the Tories over Labour, because, fundamentally, the Tories offer more reassurance on home economics.
It's enough to make a big difference.
I just read this from your yougov link. If 'Leave' continue Michael Gove's strategy of plugging loss of sovereignty I imgine the above will trump them every time.
Of the two of us it is very clear that it is you who are a blinkered part fanatic rather than me.
I am also extremely pissed off that we continue to let illegals in to the disadvantage of people waiting patiently in line. I am closely involved in a number of legal visa applications here, which are continually bounced back on the flimsiest of pretexts, and much more so this year than previously (18% rise in rejection on technicalities this year). The government continues to make legal applications more difficult, appeals less likely to succeed and both legal applications and appeals dramatically more expensive. At the same time they make appeals easier and cheaper for illegals already in the country. It's a disgrace.
But, that does of course give Remain greater potential to improve turnout.
Hugo Rifkind is full-on metropolitan elite, and soaking wet, of course.
A middle class voter (75%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%)
A working class voter (57%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old.(54%)
A homeowner (77%) is exactly as likely to vote as a 60 year old (77%)
A private renter (51%) is nearly as likely to vote as a 25 year old (54%)
I'd be curious to see the detail on a phone poll showing turnout favours Leave.
Relying on the EU migration crisis and socking it to Cameron won't be enough, IMHO.
The egos on the Leave side are many and various and the addition of David Owen is hardly likely to increase the sense of harmony and unity. Most claim that this is the biggest decision that the country will have faced in the last 40 years. But it is still not important enough, apparently, to stop playing really stupid and destructive games.
Rather than moaning about Cameron leading the remain campaign and standing up for government policy the various Leave factions need to focus on giving the people of this country a genuine and serious choice. To date that has not happened and the inevitable conclusion is going to be that whilst the EU is a very long way short of perfect staying in is the only sensible option.
I always thought that Leave would have some of these problems but the last week has been beyond my worst nightmares. Even in this podcast we have UKIPs only MP disagreeing with Farage about who the leading group should be. I was too young to vote the last time and will probably be dead before this comes around again. Is this one chance to define our future as a nation really to be a total farce?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/11221427/EU-budget-what-you-need-to-know.html
However, on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out. Only Germany paid more on a net basis.
The Euro elections are generally thought of as a free hit without consequence on how we are governed (slightly discrediting the idea that the majority of laws are made in Brussels). This referendum will have real effect whichever way it goes and will be decided by every voter not just those in Midland marginals like Broxtowe. That is why I expect turnout to be of the same order as the GE.
It is worth noting that it was the relatively low turnout areas in Scotland (Glasgow and Dundee) that were the only ones with a majority for Yes in the Sindyref, though even there the turnout was higher than it has been for decades.
Not that anyone cares or listens to what I think, but I shall be writing to Vote Leave this weekend.
Might make me feel better.
"What about the currency Four Freedoms?"
"Thats neither here nor there. Whats important is that we are in control of our future and our borders"
"So will we use the pound control of our borders?
"Of course! the rUK EU/EEA/EFTA are bound to agree to that!
"What if they don't"
"Project Fear! Project Fear! Project Fear! There's no point in debating with you Unionist Europhile fanatics! What people are interested in is FREEDOM.....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union
Trust you to quote a Europhile propaganda sheet like the Telegraph.......
In its current form it is finished, perhaps in time it can renew itself. I fear that those of us who hope for a small state, low tax, libertarian party are in a tiny minority.
As somebody who has also spent a lot of time with Nigel Farage I hope we see a dignified departure from him, he's done so much, but I doubt it.
Yougov have Leave 74% certain to vote, Remain 64%.
I like his reference to Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. An excellent book, and very good read, that influenced me too.
It's amazing that Rifkind is paid money for this crap. It can't last.
I was going to use this from the BBC which is much less convoluted but for some reason they have used figures from 2007!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
Of course it's possible that that event, ahem, doesn't occur. That might have an effect.
Of course if we end up out of the single market (with complete control of our borders) I struggle to see how we will be anything but poorer.....
As people age they not only mature but can change their occupation.
Someone who is unemployed at 18 (E)
Could be working in a semi-skilled or unskilled profession at 25 (D).
By 35 they may have become skilled at what they do (C2).
By 45 they could be supervisory to the next generation (C1) - now middle class.
By 55 they could have become managerial (B)
Before they retire they may have even reached higher management (A)
While it's not a one-way street people try and progress through their careers rather than go backwards so I wonder if the elderly could be more likely to vote because they're more middle class and/or if the middle class could be more likely to vote because they're older.
Do we have data that granulated?
New EU referendum, in Hungary, on whether migrant quotas should be accepted:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35657054
Not Hungarian, but I'd guess it's a dead cert, and a way of getting clear popular support for a hardline stance.