A Project Fear in reverse would need to focus on the fact that there will be more integration, determined by the EU, including, for instance:-
- quotas of migrants we are required to take in; - VAT on currently zero-rated items eg food and children's clothes - more harmonised taxation, including taxes imposed by the EU - increasing contributions and the complete loss of the British rebate, costing each family £xxx p.a.
Etc etc.
Now I don't know how likely any of these are. But I've picked them because they've all been mooted at some point in the recent past (and Martin Schultz was mentioning the migrant quota issue only this morning on the radio) and so it is possible that they could be revived.
But the aim of any well run Leave campaign should be to sow doubt about what remaining in the EU means and that this will cost people real money. People will worry about losing jobs if we leave. So Leave need to make them worry about what it will cost them if we stay. Plus it should put Remain on the defensive. If Remain have to start denying that VAT won't be put on food, it still sows a doubt in people's minds and that is time that cannot be spent on other arguments.
Similarly, the migrant quota issue will make people worry about who might be let in and helps undermine the EU keeps us safe argument.
Leave need to pick the most unattractive bits of the EU and say that remaining means more of this and costs you this - it has to be made personal and relevant.
Whether they are able to do this seems doubtful to me.
CR - if Miss Cyclefree is willing, this should be shared with Mr. Hannan - it is the best strategy I've yet heard for successful campaigning against Project Fear.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
"While the increase in immigration of EU citizens was not statistically significant, there was a statistically significant increase in EU2 immigration, from 40,000 to 55,000. EU2 citizens now account for 21% of total EU immigration compared with 16% in YE September 2014."
EU2 means Romania and Bulgaria. I thought we were told they weren't going to come?
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
That's begging for an Alamo themed thread.
Will Cruz be Sam Houston? Will Trump be Santa Anna?
I'm sure Trump will be delighted with me comparing him to a Mexican.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
Osborne may have had a piranha tank installed with which to threaten Gove to get the right result in the referendum.
You make Osborne sound like a Bond villain rather than a truly outstanding master strategist and Chancellor that he is.
Lurking beneath the façade of a mild mannered master strategist.....
A Project Fear in reverse would need to focus on the fact that there will be more integration, determined by the EU, including, for instance:-
- quotas of migrants we are required to take in; - VAT on currently zero-rated items eg food and children's clothes - more harmonised taxation, including taxes imposed by the EU - increasing contributions and the complete loss of the British rebate, costing each family £xxx p.a.
Etc etc.
Now I don't know how likely any of these are. But I've picked them because they've all been mooted at some point in the recent past (and Martin Schultz was mentioning the migrant quota issue only this morning on the radio) and so it is possible that they could be revived.
But the aim of any well run Leave campaign should be to sow doubt about what remaining in the EU means and that this will cost people real money. People will worry about losing jobs if we leave. So Leave need to make them worry about what it will cost them if we stay. Plus it should put Remain on the defensive. If Remain have to start denying that VAT won't be put on food, it still sows a doubt in people's minds and that is time that cannot be spent on other arguments.
Similarly, the migrant quota issue will make people worry about who might be let in and helps undermine the EU keeps us safe argument.
Leave need to pick the most unattractive bits of the EU and say that remaining means more of this and costs you this - it has to be made personal and relevant.
Whether they are able to do this seems doubtful to me.
CR - if Miss Cyclefree is willing, this should be shared with Mr. Hannan - it is the best strategy I've yet heard for successful campaigning against Project Fear.
Thanks. Vanilla me so I don't forget.
I still want to quote The Untouchables in my letter.
If these immigration numbers keep going up even after Cameron's deal is enacted, it will make renegotiation look very poor. Welfare limits were most substantive part of a meagre deal.
"While the increase in immigration of EU citizens was not statistically significant, there was a statistically significant increase in EU2 immigration, from 40,000 to 55,000. EU2 citizens now account for 21% of total EU immigration compared with 16% in YE September 2014."
EU2 means Romania and Bulgaria. I thought we were told they weren't going to come?
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
Tim Dowling in yesterdays Guardian suggested that some Republican delegates to the electoral college might become "an organised group of faithless electors (who) could for the first time affect the outcome of the election.” He doesn’t, though, suggest who they would choose instead of Trump.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
One thing that needs to be said in favour of new arrivals from EU2 countries, and indeed EU8 ones, is that they have a very high employment rate - higher than UK nationals, in fact.
When we look at the detail of poor employment rates and high rates of welfare dependency, it's other groups from beyond the EU that figure most prominently.
In fact, Downing Street is so keen to hug Gove close that George Osborne entertained him and his wife at Dorneywood, the chancellor's country seat, at the weekend in what The Spectator describes as a "very happy occasion". Cheers!
No such thing as a purely social call at that level of politics. "A very happy occassion" = Osborne got something out of it he wanted.
I reckon he's been crapping himself the c.140 MPs declaring for Leave have blown his leadership chances out the water, now he can't sew it up, and was looking for an endorsement from Gove for him post referendum.
Looks like he got it.
Aren't the Goves Godparents to some of Ozzy's kids?
That said I'm fully expecting Osborne to announce his leadership bid with Gove as his running mate/Chancellor designate.
I couldn't care less if he gets an endorsement from Margaret Thatcher's posthumous soul.
There's no way on God's earth I'm voting for him.
Osborne is God's gift to Labour. He is similar in public view to Ed Miliband without the charm...
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
Because it's curtains for Cruz whose support would flock to Rubio's banner? Except many of them wouldn't and anyway Rubio is too far behind and too crap. Trump winning Texas is great news for Trump, no one else.
How come Saudi Arabia is fifth largest source of entry clearance visas???
Large parts of 'our' government are on their payroll. Almost as bad as it is with the Israelis whom Cameron seems ever willing to sacrifice our national interest to.
If these immigration numbers keep going up even after Cameron's deal is enacted, it will make renegotiation look very poor. Welfare limits were most substantive part of a meagre deal.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
With unemployment down to 5.1% and the number of vacancies per unemployed having halved in just over two years, it's just as well we've got all these immigrants coming to fill them.
Net immigration will reduce under one of the following circumstances:
1) Britain's economy falters. 2) The rest of the EU's economy picks up. 3) We voluntarily decide to sabotage our own economy by preventing people from coming to do the jobs that employers think need doing.
There is a very longterm solution of training more of our economically inactive to do the work, but that's not going to happen overnight or indeed in a few years.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
Tim Dowling in yesterdays Guardian suggested that some Republican delegates to the electoral college might become "an organised group of faithless electors (who) could for the first time affect the outcome of the election.” He doesn’t, though, suggest who they would choose instead of Trump.
Would there be enough of them to make a difference?
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
A Project Fear in reverse would need to focus on the fact that there will be more integration, determined by the EU, including, for instance:-
- quotas of migrants we are required to take in; - VAT on currently zero-rated items eg food and children's clothes - more harmonised taxation, including taxes imposed by the EU - increasing contributions and the complete loss of the British rebate, costing each family £xxx p.a.
Etc etc.
Now I don't know how likely any of these are. But I've picked them because they've all been mooted at some point in the recent past (and Martin Schultz was mentioning the migrant quota issue only this morning on the radio) and so it is possible that they could be revived.
But the aim of any well run Leave campaign should be to sow doubt about what remaining in the EU means and that this will cost people real money. People will worry about losing jobs if we leave. So Leave need to make them worry about what it will cost them if we stay. Plus it should put Remain on the defensive. If Remain have to start denying that VAT won't be put on food, it still sows a doubt in people's minds and that is time that cannot be spent on other arguments.
Similarly, the migrant quota issue will make people worry about who might be let in and helps undermine the EU keeps us safe argument.
Leave need to pick the most unattractive bits of the EU and say that remaining means more of this and costs you this - it has to be made personal and relevant.
Whether they are able to do this seems doubtful to me.
CR - if Miss Cyclefree is willing, this should be shared with Mr. Hannan - it is the best strategy I've yet heard for successful campaigning against Project Fear.
Thanks. Vanilla me so I don't forget.
I still want to quote The Untouchables in my letter.
I once quoted The Untouchables in a thread header. Was so chuffed.
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
If these immigration numbers keep going up even after Cameron's deal is enacted, it will make renegotiation look very poor. Welfare limits were most substantive part of a meagre deal.
Cameron has actually targeted the correct group from within the EU - the people that turn up with unemployed partners and children that will need schools, housing, healthcare etc who then need 'in-work' benefits to survive.
The problem with his welfare reform is that it is neither binding nor permanent.
As part of the government's welfare reforms, they really need to move on to abolishing market rate housing benefit in London. They must switch to a level that reflects what would be paid in Bristol, Leeds, Glasgow etc.
If a landlord can't let in London without a huge taxpayer subsidy, they should be pushed into a situation where they sell up or lower rents.
This isn't rent control, it's a cap on benefits for landlords.
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
If these immigration numbers keep going up even after Cameron's deal is enacted, it will make renegotiation look very poor. Welfare limits were most substantive part of a meagre deal.
Cameron has actually targeted the correct group from within the EU - the people that turn up with unemployed partners and children that will need schools, housing, healthcare etc who then need 'in-work' benefits to survive.
The problem with his welfare reform is that it is neither binding nor permanent.
As part of the government's welfare reforms, they really need to move on to abolishing market rate housing benefit in London. They must switch to a level that reflects what would be paid in Bristol, Leeds, Glasgow etc.
If a landlord can't let in London without a huge taxpayer subsidy, they should be pushed into a situation where they sell up or lower rents.
This isn't rent control, it's a cap on benefits for landlords.
And if he does that he will get accused of ethnic cleansing...
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
Tim Dowling in yesterdays Guardian suggested that some Republican delegates to the electoral college might become "an organised group of faithless electors (who) could for the first time affect the outcome of the election.” He doesn’t, though, suggest who they would choose instead of Trump.
Oh the squeals of the lefties will be a delight to behold if Trump makes it.
He's suggesting the GOP perform a coup d'etat on their own President-elect...
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
Zero element of control, or even knowledge of the true situation it seems. Something that needs sorting whether we're in or out of the EU tbh.
A Project Fear in reverse would need to focus on the fact that there will be more integration, determined by the EU, including, for instance:-
- quotas of migrants we are required to take in; - VAT on currently zero-rated items eg food and children's clothes - more harmonised taxation, including taxes imposed by the EU - increasing contributions and the complete loss of the British rebate, costing each family £xxx p.a.
Etc etc.
Now I don't know how likely any of these are. But I've picked them because they've all been mooted at some point in the recent past (and Martin Schultz was mentioning the migrant quota issue only this morning on the radio) and so it is possible that they could be revived.
But the aim of any well run Leave campaign should be to sow doubt about what remaining in the EU means and that this will cost people real money. People will worry about losing jobs if we leave. So Leave need to make them worry about what it will cost them if we stay. Plus it should put Remain on the defensive. If Remain have to start denying that VAT won't be put on food, it still sows a doubt in people's minds and that is time that cannot be spent on other arguments.
Similarly, the migrant quota issue will make people worry about who might be let in and helps undermine the EU keeps us safe argument.
Leave need to pick the most unattractive bits of the EU and say that remaining means more of this and costs you this - it has to be made personal and relevant.
Whether they are able to do this seems doubtful to me.
CR - if Miss Cyclefree is willing, this should be shared with Mr. Hannan - it is the best strategy I've yet heard for successful campaigning against Project Fear.
Thanks. Vanilla me so I don't forget.
I still want to quote The Untouchables in my letter.
I once quoted The Untouchables in a thread header. Was so chuffed.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
Because it's curtains for Cruz whose support would flock to Rubio's banner? Except many of them wouldn't and anyway Rubio is too far behind and too crap. Trump winning Texas is great news for Trump, no one else.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
Because it's curtains for Cruz whose support would flock to Rubio's banner? Except many of them wouldn't and anyway Rubio is too far behind and too crap. Trump winning Texas is great news for Trump, no one else.
Precisely.
Yeah but...
I'd like to sell off that Cruz wodge at some point !
F1: murmurings about changing qualifying to a one-by-one elimination. It'd still be a case of losing six in session one, six in session two, and ten in the last bit, but one would be dropped out every 90 seconds or so.
Drivers on a lap would be dropped out before being allowed to complete it, with the exception of the last chap per qualifying (when the chequered flag for a session is waved).
This would come into effect, if agreed, this year.
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
I'm sure the people who threw thousands of pounds at him @ 1.5 after he came third in Iowa will find all kinds of good news all the way to the convention.
One thing that needs to be said in favour of new arrivals from EU2 countries, and indeed EU8 ones, is that they have a very high employment rate - higher than UK nationals, in fact.
When we look at the detail of poor employment rates and high rates of welfare dependency, it's other groups from beyond the EU that figure most prominently.
How does that break down? Presumably if they are non-EU nationals then they are here under some kind of visa that we have decided it's in Britain's interests to grant. I can see that foreign students would skew the employment figures, and refugees are taken on compassionate grounds whereby we accept that they may not be a net benefit to our economy (in the short-medium term at least), but what on basis would the remaining under-employed/welfare dependent non-EU groups be here?
617,000 people immigrated to the UK in 12 months to Sept 2015. (same as to Sept 2014); 294,000 people left UK (down 30,000) = net rise 323k
"Ah but if we left the EU we couldn't stop them coming" or somesuch nonsense..
We could, but we wouldn't. I highly doubt any government would start to discriminate between making it easy for immigration from some EU countries and not others. For starters, business would lobby hard to keep allowing well trained hard working low "cost" labour from places like Poland.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
I'm sure the people who threw thousands of pounds at him @ 1.5 after he came third in Iowa will find all kinds of good news all the way to the convention.
My favoured result for Super Tuesday would be Trump to win every state except Texas, which he loses by 1 vote to Cruz.
617,000 people immigrated to the UK in 12 months to Sept 2015. (same as to Sept 2014); 294,000 people left UK (down 30,000) = net rise 323k
"Ah but if we left the EU we couldn't stop them coming" or somesuch nonsense..
We could, but we wouldn't. I highly doubt any government would start to discriminate between making it easy for immigration from some EU countries and not others. For starters, business would lobby hard to keep allowing well trained hard working low "cost" labour from places like Poland.
Perhaps we could be utterly selective in choosing the quality of immigrants - like say Australia ?
I think it'd be feasible to get net immigration down to between 125k-175k pa outside the EU without much (if any) real economic damage by capping EU workers at 75k per year, and favouring high skill workers, plus changing primary purpose and altering Commonwealth family residency rights.
617,000 people immigrated to the UK in 12 months to Sept 2015. (same as to Sept 2014); 294,000 people left UK (down 30,000) = net rise 323k
"Ah but if we left the EU we couldn't stop them coming" or somesuch nonsense..
We could, but we wouldn't. I highly doubt any government would start to discriminate between making it easy for immigration from some EU countries and not others. For starters, business would lobby hard to keep allowing well trained hard working low "cost" labour from places like Poland.
Perhaps we could be utterly selective in choosing the quality of immigrants - like say Australia ?
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
That suggests that the International Passenger Survey is a load of nonsense, or we have multiple ID fraud on an industrial scale.
Additionally, children are allocated NINOs at the point of Child Benefit claims - it's incorrectly assumed that this happens just before leaving school. So foreign children would be given NINOs.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
I'm sure the people who threw thousands of pounds at him @ 1.5 after he came third in Iowa will find all kinds of good news all the way to the convention.
My favoured result for Super Tuesday would be Trump to win every state except Texas, which he loses by 1 vote to Cruz.
My best result would be Cruz cruising to victory in all states because 45/1 was a crazy price I bit on.
617,000 people immigrated to the UK in 12 months to Sept 2015. (same as to Sept 2014); 294,000 people left UK (down 30,000) = net rise 323k
"Ah but if we left the EU we couldn't stop them coming" or somesuch nonsense..
We could, but we wouldn't. I highly doubt any government would start to discriminate between making it easy for immigration from some EU countries and not others. For starters, business would lobby hard to keep allowing well trained hard working low "cost" labour from places like Poland.
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
I urge you to take this message to Page Hall in the upcoming Brightside by-election.
Well if I'm chosen as the Tory candidate, I shall.
Have you put your name into the hat ?
Not yet, but I've been urged to.
For some reason people think I should become an MP or possibly the Sheffield City Region Mayor.
I think you should stand.
My problem, apart from the pay cut, is that I'm commendably honest. I'd get into constant trouble with my utterances.
Like 'If you lost out on the job market to someone who moved here and can barely speak English, stop whining about immigrants and improve your skill set'
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
That suggests that the International Passenger Survey is a load of nonsense, or we have multiple ID fraud on an industrial scale.
Additionally, children are allocated NINOs at the point of Child Benefit claims - it's incorrectly assumed that this happens just before leaving school. So foreign children would be given NINOs.
Shouldn't the comparison be as against NI numbers given to EU immigrants?
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.
I can't see any upside to firing Gove, or to pushing him into a position where he has no choice but to resign. I can see an enormous downside, and I can't believe Cameron would be so stupid. That really would trigger an almighty conflict within the Conservative Party, because it would show that the promise of a free vote was a sham.
My first reaction to the Telegraph front page was to think it was just stirring. On reflection I wonder if it is meant to be a warning shot that, if Remain wins easily there will be negative consequences for some - not all, but you don't know which - Leavers.
There's a remark of Lincoln's - This government cannot much longer play a game in which it stakes all, and its enemies stake nothing - which might sum up what Cameron is thinking. He, after all, is certainly out on his arse if he loses. He may not find himself warming to the idea that Gove's job is safe either way.
But I think Gove will not be fired in the event. Better to choose someone less competent and articulate and less of a threat on the backbenches.
I did an 'A' level in politics a long time ago and what I always find peculiar is how few of the fundamental rules change. 'Collective responsibiity' is as central now as it was then. There was never a chance of Cameron being able to allow Cabinet ministers to do their own thing. Gove will be gone before the week end as I said yesterday
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
Some of those will be agricultural seasonal workers who head home in the late Autumn and come back the following summer. Likewise other seasonal trades.
Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 17. Texas has started voting already but Cruz is losing steam as his reputation takes a hit on honesty and those third place finishes register with voters. Turnout key again, still think Trump will edge it.
Texas is Cruz's last stand.
There's a school of thought on Betfair that Trump winning Texas is great news for Ru-bi-oh?
I'm sure the people who threw thousands of pounds at him @ 1.5 after he came third in Iowa will find all kinds of good news all the way to the convention.
My favoured result for Super Tuesday would be Trump to win every state except Texas, which he loses by 1 vote to Cruz.
My best result would be Cruz cruising to victory in all states because 45/1 was a crazy price I bit on.
Rubio would head to 1.01 if Cruz picked up all ST states. I'm only halfway joking on that too !
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
Some of those will be agricultural seasonal workers who head home in the late Autumn and come back the following summer. Likewise other seasonal trades.
Do you really get a new national insurance number every time??
I think it'd be feasible to get net immigration down to between 125k-175k pa outside the EU without much (if any) real economic damage by capping EU workers at 75k per year, and favouring high skill workers, plus changing primary purpose and altering Commonwealth family residency rights.
I don't think there are any special rights for Commonwealth family members.
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
Some of those will be agricultural seasonal workers who head home in the late Autumn and come back the following summer. Likewise other seasonal trades.
Do you really get a new national insurance number every time??
No you don't. Obviously every year there are new workers but probably not enough to explain the discrepancy
The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
Leave should highlight the major risks in staying, and emphasise the potential economic and fiscal benefits of leaving, just like any other political campaign.
Mr Royale: I gave some examples on last night's thread on the sort of topics they might want to focus on. Not sure if you saw it.
At any event, I tend to share DavidL's analysis of their so far lamentable campaign. And I remain of the view that Remain will likely win.
If those who have been saying for year that the current position is not good cannot make out a clear case for why the current position is no good, will get worse and why a change should be made, then they will lose - and deservedly so. Those who want change need to make the case for it.
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
I urge you to take this message to Page Hall in the upcoming Brightside by-election.
Well if I'm chosen as the Tory candidate, I shall.
Have you put your name into the hat ?
Not yet, but I've been urged to.
For some reason people think I should become an MP or possibly the Sheffield City Region Mayor.
I think you should stand.
My problem, apart from the pay cut, is that I'm commendably honest. I'd get into constant trouble with my utterances.
Like 'If you lost out on the job market to someone who moved here and can barely speak English, stop whining about immigrants and improve your skill set'
Perhaps Tony Blair was right about ID cards for NHS treatment. Perhaps ensuring it was very difficult to be either a benefit or health care tourist would mean a warmer welcome for working migrants ?
Mr. Pulpstar, no. Merkel's a grown women. She's responsible for her own damned foolishness.
It's a great shame that the victims are those who had nothing to do with the decision to open the floodgates.
Miss Plato, I'd be astounded if it were that low. A million went to Germany alone last year (around 1.8m to the EU as a whole). The numbers for this year are higher than the same time last year. And then there's the family that might come over.
One thing that needs to be said in favour of new arrivals from EU2 countries, and indeed EU8 ones, is that they have a very high employment rate - higher than UK nationals, in fact.
When we look at the detail of poor employment rates and high rates of welfare dependency, it's other groups from beyond the EU that figure most prominently.
How does that break down? Presumably if they are non-EU nationals then they are here under some kind of visa that we have decided it's in Britain's interests to grant. I can see that foreign students would skew the employment figures, and refugees are taken on compassionate grounds whereby we accept that they may not be a net benefit to our economy (in the short-medium term at least), but what on basis would the remaining under-employed/welfare dependent non-EU groups be here?
I found this, but its from 2008 so maybe out of date.
The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
Leave should highlight the major risks in staying, and emphasise the potential economic and fiscal benefits of leaving, just like any other political campaign.
Mr Royale: I gave some examples on last night's thread on the sort of topics they might want to focus on. Not sure if you saw it.
At any event, I tend to share DavidL's analysis of their so far lamentable campaign. And I remain of the view that Remain will likely win.
If those who have been saying for year that the current position is not good cannot make out a clear case for why the current position is no good, will get worse and why a change should be made, then they will lose - and deservedly so. Those who want change need to make the case for it.
Mr. Pulpstar, the violation of Yorkshire's sacred boundaries cannot be overlooked.
Miss Plato, it'll go up a lot more when the hordes in Germany get the right of free travel.
My mother was from the North Riding and her family never acknowledged the West Riding as part of Yorkshire at all. (The fact that it supplied most of the cricketers was a minor embarrassment.) Needless to say, they didn't accept the boundary changes. Anyway, they wouldn't have been happy with your pan-Yorkshire mayor. Well, unless she was based somewhere civiised like Helmsley.
Mr. Pulpstar, no. Merkel's a grown women. She's responsible for her own damned foolishness.
I think that encounter had a large emotional impact on her though. And she's let her heart rule her head on immigration/borders policy with the migrant crisis. Butterfly effect.
Jonathan Portes Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
That suggests that the International Passenger Survey is a load of nonsense, or we have multiple ID fraud on an industrial scale.
Additionally, children are allocated NINOs at the point of Child Benefit claims - it's incorrectly assumed that this happens just before leaving school. So foreign children would be given NINOs.
Shouldn't the comparison be as against NI numbers given to EU immigrants?
Possibly.
I find this particular ONS publication to be especially unwieldy and difficult to make sense of. It needs an editorial revamp.
Why do you hate immigrants ? Listen to the podcast and the love Carswell has for immigrants.
I don't, but along with the aging population it puts more pressure on housing and services. In particular the idea of a free market for housing is a complete non starter given most of the country supports some form of planning laws.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
I urge you to take this message to Page Hall in the upcoming Brightside by-election.
Well if I'm chosen as the Tory candidate, I shall.
Have you put your name into the hat ?
Not yet, but I've been urged to.
For some reason people think I should become an MP or possibly the Sheffield City Region Mayor.
I think you should stand.
My problem, apart from the pay cut, is that I'm commendably honest. I'd get into constant trouble with my utterances.
Like 'If you lost out on the job market to someone who moved here and can barely speak English, stop whining about immigrants and improve your skill set'
Perhaps Tony Blair was right about ID cards for NHS treatment. Perhaps ensuring it was very difficult to be either a benefit or health care tourist would mean a warmer welcome for working migrants ?
As a rule I'm opposed to ID cards.
But I see that idea having merits.
My Grandfather was genuinely touched by how warmly he was received as a working immigrant here, so it would work to dip into the majority of Brits who welcome working immigrants.
The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
Leave should highlight the major risks in staying, and emphasise the potential economic and fiscal benefits of leaving, just like any other political campaign.
Mr Royale: I gave some examples on last night's thread on the sort of topics they might want to focus on. Not sure if you saw it.
At any event, I tend to share DavidL's analysis of their so far lamentable campaign. And I remain of the view that Remain will likely win.
If those who have been saying for year that the current position is not good cannot make out a clear case for why the current position is no good, will get worse and why a change should be made, then they will lose - and deservedly so. Those who want change need to make the case for it.
They also need to make the case for how the change will be implemented.
I was at a meeting addressed by the VC of a large University the other day and the referendum was discussed and they were able to dismiss the case for Leave simply by highlighting the total uncertainty there would be in the short term after a leave vote and the damage that would do to overseas student recruitment and funding.
Although to be honest getting University staff to agree on something like the EU is not that difficult!
You work?! As what? And how, you're always posting here.
Mr. 30, I have always understood Mr. Eagles to be a lawyer, and quite a senior one. Whether that classes as work as opposed to a way of life in the same way that Dracula was a vampire, is debatable.
Mr. Pulpstar, I'm sure it did, and you're right about heart and head. She's still responsible, and still a damned fool. Corbyn's a brainless emotional creature, and that way lies folly, doom and woe.
Amazing the BBC didn't know anything evah, then immediately sack Tony Blackburn 45yrs after the no evidence event.
SkyNews "I have identified 72 victims of #Savile... his youngest victim was age 8," says Dame Janet Smith https://t.co/DoD6yhCgPy video
Ignorance is no defence. In this case it indicates woeful policies (or implimentation of them) and failure to safeguard the children on its premises and often in the temporary care of the BBC.
The concept that it was not known or suspected in the higher echelons of the BBC stretches credibility to somewhere like Donald Trump turning out to be the love child of Mother Teresa.
The problem with just focusing on the economic issues is that they're unproveable either way. Two talking heads debating whether GDP will be 1% greater or smaller if we leave just isn't going to get voters out of bed.
It seems to me that the only honest answer is that economically, Leave or Remain makes very little difference.
Leave should highlight the major risks in staying, and emphasise the potential economic and fiscal benefits of leaving, just like any other political campaign.
Mr Royale: I gave some examples on last night's thread on the sort of topics they might want to focus on. Not sure if you saw it.
At any event, I tend to share DavidL's analysis of their so far lamentable campaign. And I remain of the view that Remain will likely win.
If those who have been saying for year that the current position is not good cannot make out a clear case for why the current position is no good, will get worse and why a change should be made, then they will lose - and deservedly so. Those who want change need to make the case for it.
They certainly do. A clear and realistic alternative vision, probably involving some sort of compromise between the factions on immigration, needs to be drawn up and then endlessly promoted to the public via Leaves most charismatic and effective media performers.
Comments
Thats why we've got a housing shortage..
Will Cruz be Sam Houston? Will Trump be Santa Anna?
I'm sure Trump will be delighted with me comparing him to a Mexican.
617,000 people immigrated to the UK in 12 months to Sept 2015. (same as to Sept 2014); 294,000 people left UK (down 30,000) = net rise 323k
I still want to quote The Untouchables in my letter.
'If you're going to fuck up, don't fuck up a little, spectacularly fuck up, make it memorable'
I think Dave has been following that advice on that immigration pledge.
If Tory voters, then I suspect Grove is seen as antagonistic, nasty and not very effective.
The combination of unfettered immigration and a perfectly natural desire to have some sort of planning rule on housing is one of free market demand and de facto state controlled supply. It is a poor combination.
He doesn’t, though, suggest who they would choose instead of Trump.
When we look at the detail of poor employment rates and high rates of welfare dependency, it's other groups from beyond the EU that figure most prominently.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/immigrants-boost-the-economy-says-niesr-8921634.html
LOL...have a guess where this is the headline?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/621683/Lord-Ashdown-Tories-Lib-Dem-ISIS-Saudi-Arabia-funding-Qatar-David-Cameron
Net immigration will reduce under one of the following circumstances:
1) Britain's economy falters.
2) The rest of the EU's economy picks up.
3) We voluntarily decide to sabotage our own economy by preventing people from coming to do the jobs that employers think need doing.
There is a very longterm solution of training more of our economically inactive to do the work, but that's not going to happen overnight or indeed in a few years.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/12/labour-need-not-only-a-decent-leader-they-also-need-a-decent-strategist-to-help-the-new-leader/
The problem with his welfare reform is that it is neither binding nor permanent.
As part of the government's welfare reforms, they really need to move on to abolishing market rate housing benefit in London. They must switch to a level that reflects what would be paid in Bristol, Leeds, Glasgow etc.
If a landlord can't let in London without a huge taxpayer subsidy, they should be pushed into a situation where they sell up or lower rents.
This isn't rent control, it's a cap on benefits for landlords.
Official immigration stats say EU (gross) immigration to UK was 260K. But 650K National Insurance number registrations over same period
For some reason people think I should become an MP or possibly the Sheffield City Region Mayor.
He's suggesting the GOP perform a coup d'etat on their own President-elect...
I'd like to sell off that Cruz wodge at some point !
Net migration from the EU to the UK rose 8.9% Y/Y in the year ended September 2015 to 172,000 #Brexit
Drivers on a lap would be dropped out before being allowed to complete it, with the exception of the last chap per qualifying (when the chequered flag for a session is waved).
This would come into effect, if agreed, this year.
Miss Plato, it'll go up a lot more when the hordes in Germany get the right of free travel.
SkyNews
Update - Dame Janet Smith's review concludes there is no evidence any senior member of staff at #BBC was aware of Jimmy #Savile's conduct
A stepping stone for being Directly Elected Dictator of the U.K.
Additionally, children are allocated NINOs at the point of Child Benefit claims - it's incorrectly assumed that this happens just before leaving school. So foreign children would be given NINOs.
Like 'If you lost out on the job market to someone who moved here and can barely speak English, stop whining about immigrants and improve your skill set'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr1S5BXcWU8
Rotherham sex gang victim: 'Only reason police started this investigation is because The Times printed my story' https://t.co/8MfJtYbyxb
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/downing-street-underestimated-conservative-opposition-to-remain-is-is-underestimating-opposition-to-the-feldman-review.html
Owen Paterson
Astonishing. Germany expect to take in 3.6 million migrants by 2020 https://t.co/oBp5Zgozel (in German)
SkyNews
"I have identified 72 victims of #Savile... his youngest victim was age 8," says Dame Janet Smith https://t.co/DoD6yhCgPy video
At any event, I tend to share DavidL's analysis of their so far lamentable campaign. And I remain of the view that Remain will likely win.
If those who have been saying for year that the current position is not good cannot make out a clear case for why the current position is no good, will get worse and why a change should be made, then they will lose - and deservedly so. Those who want change need to make the case for it.
http://indianexpress.com/article/world/europe/palestinian-refugee-girl-who-cried-before-merkel-gets-extended-residency-permit-until-2016/
It's a great shame that the victims are those who had nothing to do with the decision to open the floodgates.
Miss Plato, I'd be astounded if it were that low. A million went to Germany alone last year (around 1.8m to the EU as a whole). The numbers for this year are higher than the same time last year. And then there's the family that might come over.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lmac/employment-of-foreign-workers/employment-of-foreign-workers-male-and-female-labour-market-participation/employment-of-foreign-workers--male-and-female-labour-market-participation.pdf
Lowest rate is Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. Highest rate is South Africans.
I find this particular ONS publication to be especially unwieldy and difficult to make sense of. It needs an editorial revamp.
But I see that idea having merits.
My Grandfather was genuinely touched by how warmly he was received as a working immigrant here, so it would work to dip into the majority of Brits who welcome working immigrants.
I was at a meeting addressed by the VC of a large University the other day and the referendum was discussed and they were able to dismiss the case for Leave simply by highlighting the total uncertainty there would be in the short term after a leave vote and the damage that would do to overseas student recruitment and funding.
Although to be honest getting University staff to agree on something like the EU is not that difficult!
Mr. Wanderer, well, it's a view.
The concept that it was not known or suspected in the higher echelons of the BBC stretches credibility to somewhere like Donald Trump turning out to be the love child of Mother Teresa.
I don't think people are going to accept a BBC internal report into a brazen child abuser that concludes "We're as surprised as you."