politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In a week dominated by the EU UKIP’s Douglas Carswell is th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In a week dominated by the EU UKIP’s Douglas Carswell is this week’s PB/Polling Matters special guest
In this week’s episode Keiran Pedley interviews UKIP MP Douglas Carswell about his political journey, thoughts on the EU referendum campaign, the future of UKIP and whether he might rejoin the Conservatives in the future.
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Excellent podcast.0
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Departing showrunner Beau Willimon has found a way of putting Underwood on the back foot again, House of Cards has regained its mojo. Spacey twinkles with vehemence as he ratchets up his portrayal of Frank as villainous force of nature; Wright has never been better as burningly ambitious ice queen Claire, who has unearthed a useful foil in ruthless strategist Leann Harvey
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/02/23/house-of-cards-season-four-first-look-review-a-deliciously-dark/
Can't wait.....next weekend is a total write off for me.0 -
The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.0
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Coming up tomorrow a PB favourite. Roger with his Oscar predictions
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New Texas poll:
Cruz 35
Trump 20
Rubio 8
Carson 7
Kasich 4
http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/news/politics/election-2016/
Don't forget Texas may be proportional, however there is a 20% barrier for delegates, only those who pass it are assigned delegates proportionally.
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What do you make of these reports on Tiger being finished?Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
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Quick listenerTheScreamingEagles said:Excellent podcast.
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When you look back your choice will be defined by whether you voted for or against Trump. Do you think you'll regret being part of a historic event or not having been part of it?Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
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I assume making us money is not a valid reason?Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
And that any PB reader is not seeking advice in the Clinton v Sanders contest0 -
One of the perks of being regular guest editor, I get regular advance sight of threads and podcasts.RobD said:
Plus I'm the publisher of this thread.0 -
My advice is to vote for the guy with the fewest endorsements.Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
That way you won't feel sorry for him, he's probably also the least corrupt.0 -
FPT - "Casino up thread said Vote Leave has bought a knife to a gun fight. I can confirm it's more like a wooden spoon.
The person who is meant to be 'organising' the local campaign has given me emails to forward to people I know about the EU. Nothing tangible is planned until mid-March.
That is not campaigning."
Please: don't. Vote Leave are like lambs to the slaughter right now.
I don't think Boris will kick in much until the start of May. I'm not sure what Gove is planning.
The rest of the cabinet may not have the time.
I am sorely tempted to spam these two email addresses (I can't find any other) and ask them what they're playing at:
press@voteleave.uk
jobs@voteleave.uk
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/contact0 -
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As I said Cameron would prefer to destroy the Tory party in the name of europe in a nasty civil war, especially now that he doesn't need it.Tykejohnno said:0 -
Rubio RISINGSpeedy said:New Texas poll:
Cruz 35
Trump 20
Rubio 8
Carson 7
Kasich 4
http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/news/politics/election-2016/
Don't forget Texas may be proportional, however there is a 20% barrier for delegates, only those who pass it are assigned delegates proportionally.
He will if that is the result in Texas.0 -
It's "proportional" in the smaller statewide tier. The main Congressional District tier will follow something like a square law.Speedy said:New Texas poll:
Cruz 35
Trump 20
Rubio 8
Carson 7
Kasich 4
http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/news/politics/election-2016/
Don't forget Texas may be proportional, however there is a 20% barrier for delegates, only those who pass it are assigned delegates proportionally.0 -
I will also write to a few of the directors at the weekend. I know Hannan personally, so will start with him.
I'd encourage maximum pressure from fellow Leavers:
The Vote Leave Board:
Arabella Arkwright, a Director of Core Health and Wellness
Harriet Bridgeman, founder of Bridgeman Images
Douglas Carswell MP.
Peter Cruddas, founder of CMC Markets.
Alan Halsall, former owner and Chairman of Silver Cross
Dan Hannan, MEP.
Daniel Hodson, Chairman of the Compliance Committee, former Chief Executive of LIFFE.
Bernard Jenkin MP.
Khalid Mahmood, MP.
John Mills, Chairman of John Mills Limited (JML).
Jon Moynihan, former CEO and Executive Chairman of PA Consulting.
Graham Stringer, MP.
Stuart Wheeler, founder of the IG Group.
Victoria Woodcock, Company Secretary and Operations Director.
Cross-Party Parliamentary Planning Committee to liaise with senior MPs
Steve Baker (Co-Chairman, Conservatives for Britain)
Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Kate Hoey (Co-Chair, Labour Leave)
Kelvin Hopkins (L)
Bernard Jenkin (C)
Owen Paterson (C)
Graham Stringer (L)0 -
Should be interesting tomorrow.
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
New immigration numbers out tomorrow. Will play into EU Ref debate. A useful piece by @jdportes http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-watch-thursday’s-immigration-figures#.Vs4qV1OLSWi …0 -
So it will be a bit of a mystery how Cruz and Trump divide the texas delegates until all the votes have been counted from all counties, no one will get 100%, but Rubio might get zero.RodCrosby said:
It's "proportional" in the smaller statewide tier. The main Congressional District tier will follow something like a square law.Speedy said:New Texas poll:
Cruz 35
Trump 20
Rubio 8
Carson 7
Kasich 4
http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/news/politics/election-2016/
Don't forget Texas may be proportional, however there is a 20% barrier for delegates, only those who pass it are assigned delegates proportionally.0 -
Carson then ?Speedy said:
My advice is to vote for the guy with the fewest endorsements.Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
That way you won't feel sorry for him, he's probably also the least corrupt.0 -
The media is starting to complain about Rubio losing all the time.Pulpstar said:
Rubio RISINGSpeedy said:New Texas poll:
Cruz 35
Trump 20
Rubio 8
Carson 7
Kasich 4
http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/news/politics/election-2016/
Don't forget Texas may be proportional, however there is a 20% barrier for delegates, only those who pass it are assigned delegates proportionally.
He will if that is the result in Texas.
I doubt they will give him a pass if he strikes another loss.0 -
Carswell, unlike some Tories, seems to think Cameron went to the EU and argued for reform in good faith, I see (although he failed, obviously).
Given how often he repeats the point, perhaps 'Take back control' should be the Leave slogan?0 -
I don't know if that's shit-stirring by the Telegraph.Tykejohnno said:
If it's true, I'd say it's a major error on No. 10's part.0 -
Who ever has the least, I got no idea who endorses who in Georgia.Pulpstar said:
Carson then ?Speedy said:
My advice is to vote for the guy with the fewest endorsements.Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
That way you won't feel sorry for him, he's probably also the least corrupt.0 -
It seems to be Vote Leave's slogan, not that you'd realise it given how they've been as vocal as a Trappist Monk.kle4 said:Carswell, unlike some Tories, seems to think Cameron went to the EU and argued for reform in good faith, I see (although he failed, obviously).
Given how often he repeats the point, perhaps 'Take back control' should be the Leave slogan?0 -
There is no Clinton v Sanders contest. She's won. The only contest she might lose is Clinton v DOJ.EPG said:
I assume making us money is not a valid reason?Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
And that any PB reader is not seeking advice in the Clinton v Sanders contest0 -
Curse of the new thread so FPT:
A Project Fear in reverse would need to focus on the fact that there will be more integration, determined by the EU, including, for instance:-
- quotas of migrants we are required to take in;
- VAT on currently zero-rated items eg food and children's clothes
- more harmonised taxation, including taxes imposed by the EU
- increasing contributions and the complete loss of the British rebate, costing each family £xxx p.a.
Etc etc.
Now I don't know how likely any of these are. But I've picked them because they've all been mooted at some point in the recent past (and Martin Schultz was mentioning the migrant quota issue only this morning on the radio) and so it is possible that they could be revived.
But the aim of any well run Leave campaign should be to sow doubt about what remaining in the EU means and that this will cost people real money. People will worry about losing jobs if we leave. So Leave need to make them worry about what it will cost them if we stay. Plus it should put Remain on the defensive. If Remain have to start denying that VAT won't be put on food, it still sows a doubt in people's minds and that is time that cannot be spent on other arguments.
Similarly, the migrant quota issue will make people worry about who might be let in and helps undermine the EU keeps us safe argument.
Leave need to pick the most unattractive bits of the EU and say that remaining means more of this and costs you this - it has to be made personal and relevant.
Whether they are able to do this seems doubtful to me.0 -
Silver-haired 'Saga louts' causing trouble in the Lake District
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12171352/Silver-haired-Saga-louts-causing-trouble-in-the-Lake-District.html0 -
For my book - Hilary, Trump or Cruz.Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
On a serious note Kasich's town halls have been excellent. I'd go for Kasich if I had a free choice of any of the bods.0 -
@Sean Fear
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.0 -
Why would it be only 1 million? It was more than 1 million last year and we're running fast ahead of last year so far this year.Tykejohnno said:
They've said a million because it sounds impressive but I'd guess it will be at least 2.0 -
He really likes pushing the point about the vast majority of UKIP councillors backing VoteLeave too, doesn't he? I've seen him write it several times, and he brings it up here - was he expecting something different, or is it a swipe at Grassroots Out or something?kle4 said:Carswell, unlike some Tories, seems to think Cameron went to the EU and argued for reform in good faith, I see (although he failed, obviously).
Given how often he repeats the point, perhaps 'Take back control' should be the Leave slogan?0 -
Code for Trump?Speedy said:
My advice is to vote for the guy with the fewest endorsements.Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
That way you won't feel sorry for him, he's probably also the least corrupt.0 -
Michael Gove faces sack over his opposition to European Union
The Telegraph understands that Mr Gove could be removed as Justice Secretary in the weeks following the in-out referendum on membership of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12172445/Michael-Gove-faces-sack-over-his-opposition-to-European-Union.html0 -
And to think he "took one for the team" when he got moved from Education. Now sounds like he could get kicked in the nuts again for standing for what he believe in.Tykejohnno said:Michael Gove faces sack over his opposition to European Union
The Telegraph understands that Mr Gove could be removed as Justice Secretary in the weeks following the in-out referendum on membership of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12172445/Michael-Gove-faces-sack-over-his-opposition-to-European-Union.html0 -
I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
Taking a leaf out of Corbyn's trident book. NEW POLITICS.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
Ultimately, I think the philosophical tensions between No.10 and Gove may simply be too great for him to stay in Government. No. 10 thought "low profile" meant saying 'I'm for Leave', on day one, and then shutting-up for four months.Casino_Royale said:@Sean Fear
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.
I don't think Gove can do that and be true to himself.
I think Gove is toast anyway after the referendum. Dave bears grudges and really detests it when he feels that longstanding allies have gone against him.0 -
Carswell much weaker when asked about UKIP's direction re Libertarian and old Labour areas. Much less clear and convincing.0
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Can't believe Cameron is expecting Gove into keep a low profile in EU campaign. So even after the draconian gagging order keeping ministers silent for months, they are still supposed to not speak too loudly. And the leak of Cameron's "anger" and urges by "aides" that he is on thin ice and could be sacked is a very unsubtle threat by Cameron's office.
If this referendum is lost by Leave it will be because Cameron has pushed to limit every power available to his office to bribe, blackmail and threaten the cabinet, MPs and Civil Service. Tory Leave supporters should know they could win a second one once they have someone in tune with them in No 10.0 -
If it's true,should help in the leadership race ;-)FrancisUrquhart said:
And to think he "took one for the team" when he got moved from Education. Now sounds like he could get kicked in the nuts again for standing for what he believe in.Tykejohnno said:Michael Gove faces sack over his opposition to European Union
The Telegraph understands that Mr Gove could be removed as Justice Secretary in the weeks following the in-out referendum on membership of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12172445/Michael-Gove-faces-sack-over-his-opposition-to-European-Union.html0 -
I'll be part of it whether I vote for Trump or not. For most folks on here it's a betting opportunity, but for me there's a fair chance that whoever i vote for might become the next POTUS which affects me. So I look at who I want to win.williamglenn said:
When you look back your choice will be defined by whether you voted for or against Trump. Do you think you'll regret being part of a historic event or not having been part of it?Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
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Phew! For a moment I thought it might be a reference to the extended Cyclefree family.........FrancisUrquhart said:Silver-haired 'Saga louts' causing trouble in the Lake District
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12171352/Silver-haired-Saga-louts-causing-trouble-in-the-Lake-District.html
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I would hope if Gove is sacked he is able to challenge Cameron's leadership.Casino_Royale said:@Sean Fear
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.0 -
Gulp ;-0Philip_Thompson said:
Why would it be only 1 million? It was more than 1 million last year and we're running fast ahead of last year so far this year.Tykejohnno said:
They've said a million because it sounds impressive but I'd guess it will be at least 2.0 -
I can't see any upside to firing Gove, or to pushing him into a position where he has no choice but to resign. I can see an enormous downside, and I can't believe Cameron would be so stupid. That really would trigger an almighty conflict within the Conservative Party, because it would show that the promise of a free vote was a sham.Casino_Royale said:@Sean Fear
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.0 -
Makes little sense to me, but he may have little to lose anyway - anecdote alert, I had an argument with a chap who thought Cameron would be totally unreasonable to 'attack' Leavers in his own party, and clarified that criticising their arguments counted as attacking them, when I suggested that was what he would, and how can he put his own case without saying he thinks those making the other case are wrong.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
But I'd have thought he'd stick to the plan of reconciliation if he wins. The nuclear option would surely only come out if Leave looked like winning as we approach the finish.0 -
The risk for the Tories is that they will appear divided. Cameron's successor won't have the same popularity or star quality or gravitas that Cameron undoubtedly has. And that risks letting in Corbyn's Labour - remember the Tory majority is not that great - especially if Osborne messes with peoples' pensions and the economy doesn't do as well.Casino_Royale said:
Ultimately, I think the philosophical tensions between No.10 and Gove may simply be too great for him to stay in Government. No. 10 thought "low profile" meant saying 'I'm for Leave', on day one, and then shutting-up for four months.Casino_Royale said:@Sean Fear
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.
I don't think Gove can do that and be true to himself.
I think Gove is toast anyway after the referendum. Dave bears grudges and really detests it when he feels that longstanding allies have gone against him.
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In terms of winning 4 more majors and challenging Jack's total, yes he's finished. Not going to happen. Will he play on the tour again? Who knows. Hope so.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you make of these reports on Tiger being finished?Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
Tiger issued a video today of him swinging at a golf simulator, with the caption progressing nicely. I don't know when the video was shot.0 -
Lord Owen: 'EU has tested us to breaking point - it's time to leave'
'Cameron's negotiation has shown why it is now too late to reform the EU from within in any significant way.'
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6954770/Lord-Owen-EU-has-tested-us-to-breaking-point-Now-its-time-to-leave.html0 -
FPT:
Yes, a double cheeseburger, large fries and side order of onion rings.Omnium said:Clegg though has a certain quality. He can serve yet.
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Code for CarsonTim_B said:
Code for Trump?Speedy said:
My advice is to vote for the guy with the fewest endorsements.Tim_B said:The S.E.C. Primary is next Tuesday. I'd be intrigued to hear who PBers think I should vote for, and why. No insults - X is a clown etc - just good valid reasons.
That way you won't feel sorry for him, he's probably also the least corrupt.
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That Gove story is nonsense, Dave is truly impressed by Gove's tenure as Justice Secretary.
Note the story also talks about a promotion for Boris.
Story dissing Gove, talking up Boris appearing in the Telegraph, now I wonder if any Telegraph columnist had a hand in this story to cause problems for
1) Gove who has outshone Boris this past week
2) Cause grief for Dave after that kicking he gave Boris0 -
Idiot on the Sky couch claims "it would take years for us to reconstruct ourselves as a nation state" if we quit the EU.
Where do they get them from?0 -
It's stuff like this why Cameron is toast even if he wins. Seems like a politician acting like a politician to me, but many other Leavers have already established a narrative that if we lose, it's because of betrayal and bribery (indeed, this argument was already advanced long before a referendum was assured, when I was still a Remainer - I recall arguing with Kippers saying I thought they had a good chance even if Cameron and the media did fit things up as much as they can, as they would still get heard as the desire to Leave was high enough with enough political supporters to counter any falsities). A reconciliation reshuffle in the event of Remain will probably happen, but what's the point? Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.NorfolkTilIDie said:
If this referendum is lost by Leave it will be because Cameron has pushed to limit every power available to his office to bribe, blackmail and threaten the cabinet, MPs and Civil Service. Tory Leave supporters should know they could win a second one once they have someone in tune with them in No 10.0 -
I saw my first Hillary commercials today, and lots of them.
She seems to always run two back to back - war on women, institutional racism0 -
Do you suspect the photo editor had to get approval from Owen about the choice of picture?Tykejohnno said:Lord Owen: 'EU has tested us to breaking point - it's time to leave'
'Cameron's negotiation has shown why it is now too late to reform the EU from within in any significant way.'
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6954770/Lord-Owen-EU-has-tested-us-to-breaking-point-Now-its-time-to-leave.html0 -
If you say so. I do not have a hotline to Tory headquarters, but I'd seen many reports suggesting Leavers would be retained or promoted in the event of a Remain win.Scott_P said:
What plan?kle4 said:But I'd have thought he'd stick to the plan of reconciliation if he wins.
When Remain win, the next reshuffle will be to put all of Osborne's team in place for the handover...0 -
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
Wishful thinking from Ken Adelman on Newsnight. Trump heading for big defeat according to him.0
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Strikes me this Gove sacking story is a bit reminiscent of the Corbyn/Benn kerfuffle reshuffle. No doubt people will froth with outrage into their cornflakes when they see Cameron is contemplating sacking Gove, and whether he does intended, or never did, he will still be hated by those same people who will assume, if it doesn't happen, that he wanted to but backed down and deserves no credit for it as that makes him weak, but will of course still hate him if he goes through with it even if he didn't mean to do it initially.0
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Assuming the story is true.nigel4england said:
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
The thing is Tory Leavers have been remarkably restrained. They all waited patiently til end of gag order. Since talking they've all towed party line of Cameron getting a good deal, just not quite good enough, as a courtesy to the PM, even though deal was clearly poor.Cyclefree said:
The risk for the Tories is that they will appear divided. Cameron's successor won't have the same popularity or star quality or gravitas that Cameron undoubtedly has. And that risks letting in Corbyn's Labour - remember the Tory majority is not that great - especially if Osborne messes with peoples' pensions and the economy doesn't do as well.Casino_Royale said:
Ultimately, I think the philosophical tensions between No.10 and Gove may simply be too great for him to stay in Government. No. 10 thought "low profile" meant saying 'I'm for Leave', on day one, and then shutting-up for four months.Casino_Royale said:@Sean Fear
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.
I don't think Gove can do that and be true to himself.
I think Gove is toast anyway after the referendum. Dave bears grudges and really detests it when he feels that longstanding allies have gone against him.
Cameron has done opposite. He tried to fix a dodgy question, eliminate purdah, have Osborne threaten MPs with not having careers if they backed wrong side, have shortest campaign possible, gag ministers, broke agreement not to push his deal while they were gagged, lie about migrant camps in Kent, block civil service from briefing their own ministers (but only if they backed Leave!) and now unsubtely raise the possibility of sack for any Leave minister too vocal.0 -
Fortunately for her the Democrat schedule and rules are tremendously favourable for her, and Iowa/ New Hampshire are much less indicative of eventual DEM nominee than of GOP.Sean_F said:
Hilary's big problem is that she's an awfully bad candidate.Tim_B said:I saw my first Hillary commercials today, and lots of them.
She seems to always run two back to back - war on women, institutional racism
The HRC machine should get rolling in the deep south soon enough.0 -
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
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Speak for yourself. I was convinced after the first 'red blooded Tory' speech he made, and after that unravelled I stopped considering him anything more than a clockwork mouth.nigel4england said:
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
You think a Remain win is in the bag? I see a 50/50 situation.williamglenn said:
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
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And then there's this poor chap ..FrancisUrquhart said:Silver-haired 'Saga louts' causing trouble in the Lake District
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12171352/Silver-haired-Saga-louts-causing-trouble-in-the-Lake-District.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-35649985
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Anyone have any idea who is the favourite for the Fifa Presidency? Seems to me their image problem will not be resolved by throwing out a few bad apples as it is the orchard which has the problem, to borrow an expression, but I wonder which is the least obviously bad candidate. On the basis of best name, Tokyo Sexwale has to be favourite.0
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Please do. Leave should have a massive ground advantage, but it is all being squandered.Casino_Royale said:I will also write to a few of the directors at the weekend. I know Hannan personally, so will start with him.
I'd encourage maximum pressure from fellow Leavers:
The Vote Leave Board:
Arabella Arkwright, a Director of Core Health and Wellness
Harriet Bridgeman, founder of Bridgeman Images
Douglas Carswell MP.
Peter Cruddas, founder of CMC Markets.
Alan Halsall, former owner and Chairman of Silver Cross
Dan Hannan, MEP.
Daniel Hodson, Chairman of the Compliance Committee, former Chief Executive of LIFFE.
Bernard Jenkin MP.
Khalid Mahmood, MP.
John Mills, Chairman of John Mills Limited (JML).
Jon Moynihan, former CEO and Executive Chairman of PA Consulting.
Graham Stringer, MP.
Stuart Wheeler, founder of the IG Group.
Victoria Woodcock, Company Secretary and Operations Director.
Cross-Party Parliamentary Planning Committee to liaise with senior MPs
Steve Baker (Co-Chairman, Conservatives for Britain)
Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Kate Hoey (Co-Chair, Labour Leave)
Kelvin Hopkins (L)
Bernard Jenkin (C)
Owen Paterson (C)
Graham Stringer (L)
It's really not hard:
Canvassing>leafleting>nothing
They probably can't manage traditional canvassing (no software or data), so leafleting will have to do. Obtain ward maps, divide into sections, deliver first leaflet to whole area, repeat with second. Very easy and can be done by anyone at any time.
The Vote Leave staff must be bone idle, inexperienced or aren't prioritising effectively.0 -
Interesting - I've always rather admired David Owen.Tykejohnno said:Lord Owen: 'EU has tested us to breaking point - it's time to leave'
'Cameron's negotiation has shown why it is now too late to reform the EU from within in any significant way.'
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6954770/Lord-Owen-EU-has-tested-us-to-breaking-point-Now-its-time-to-leave.html0 -
Think its clear at this point that Cameron cares more about EU membership than integrity of Tory party.Sean_F said:
I can't see any upside to firing Gove, or to pushing him into a position where he has no choice but to resign. I can see an enormous downside, and I can't believe Cameron would be so stupid. That really would trigger an almighty conflict within the Conservative Party, because it would show that the promise of a free vote was a sham.Casino_Royale said:@Sean Fear
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.
Though of course after waging all out war on Leave supporters, he'll then demand reconciliation and unity afterwards.0 -
I think it's 2/1 likely Remain will win. Which actually means there's much to play for.AndyJS said:
You think a Remain win is in the bag? I see a 50/50 situation.williamglenn said:
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
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If he does well on the SEC Primary it's hard to see how. Once we get to 3/15 all the primaries are winner take all. So he will just run away with it at that point.AndyJS said:Wishful thinking from Ken Adelman on Newsnight. Trump heading for big defeat according to him.
Trump said that endorsements don't matter yesterday, and was promptly endorsed by 2 GOP congressmen.
Maybe he should stick to Shakespeare.0 -
Prince Ali isn't it ?kle4 said:Anyone have any idea who is the favourite for the Fifa Presidency? Seems to me their image problem will not be resolved by throwing out a few bad apples as it is the orchard which has the problem, to borrow an expression, but I wonder which is the least obviously bad candidate. On the basis of best name, Tokyo Sexwale has to be favourite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEryAoLfnAA0 -
Not just this story, but the way he has behaved in the Commons this week.kle4 said:
Assuming the story is true.nigel4england said:
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
Telegraph won't even open comments on the relatively sober topic of Michael Gove's potential sacking:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12172445/Michael-Gove-faces-sack-over-his-opposition-to-European-Union.html0 -
He must have ;-) this is his blog.williamglenn said:
Do you suspect the photo editor had to get approval from Owen about the choice of picture?Tykejohnno said:Lord Owen: 'EU has tested us to breaking point - it's time to leave'
'Cameron's negotiation has shown why it is now too late to reform the EU from within in any significant way.'
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6954770/Lord-Owen-EU-has-tested-us-to-breaking-point-Now-its-time-to-leave.html
http://www.lorddavidowen.co.uk/0 -
I think the biggest question is the scale of the result. My fear is a near 50/50 result because what should have been a cathartic moment will become the source of endless wasted political infighting for decades more. The best result for our politics would be an emphatic win for Remain.AndyJS said:
You think a Remain win is in the bag? I see a 50/50 situation.williamglenn said:
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
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One of the most pro-Europe politicians in this country in the 1970s and 1980s.Norm said:
Interesting - I've always rather admired David Owen.Tykejohnno said:Lord Owen: 'EU has tested us to breaking point - it's time to leave'
'Cameron's negotiation has shown why it is now too late to reform the EU from within in any significant way.'
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6954770/Lord-Owen-EU-has-tested-us-to-breaking-point-Now-its-time-to-leave.html0 -
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The problem hasn't been so much his backing of Remain but gutter tactics against his own party in carrying out that support.williamglenn said:
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
0 -
A better result would be a win for Leave. Even a win by 1% would put the issue to bed.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest question is the scale of the result. My fear is a near 50/50 result because what should have been a cathartic moment will become the source of endless wasted political infighting for decades more. The best result for our politics would be an emphatic win for Remain.AndyJS said:
You think a Remain win is in the bag? I see a 50/50 situation.williamglenn said:
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
0 -
Only the slimiest of Dave Toadies could defend his PMQs performance today.nigel4england said:
Not just this story, but the way he has behaved in the Commons this week.kle4 said:
Assuming the story is true.nigel4england said:
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
Alistair Bunkall ✔ @AliBunkallSKY
First response from General Sir Michael Rose: "I'm delighted Downing Street has taken me off the list"0 -
“Labour already needs a 1997-sized lead to get a majority of just one seat. It looks as if it’s going to be even more difficult on these numbers,” Mr Baston said.0
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They said stuff like that in 1992. Labour could never win a majority again they said.TheScreamingEagles said:“Labour already needs a 1997-sized lead to get a majority of just one seat. It looks as if it’s going to be even more difficult on these numbers,” Mr Baston said.
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His tactics have not helped, but I do not believe for one second there would not have been a sizable portion who could not accept anything he did on this issue if he opposed them.NorfolkTilIDie said:
The problem hasn't been so much his backing of Remain but gutter tactics against his own party in carrying out that support.williamglenn said:
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
A shame really - of those on offer, if Remain were to win I'd prefer Cameron to stay on, but struggle to see how he can last long with this much bitterness in evidence.
Should Leave win, well, I get the main thing and will have to hope Boris is a moderate, safe pair of hands.0 -
Must be a lot of slimes in the press judging by reports, but we knew that I supposed.Pulpstar said:
Only the slimiest of Dave Toadies could defend his PMQs performance today.nigel4england said:
Not just this story, but the way he has behaved in the Commons this week.kle4 said:
Assuming the story is true.nigel4england said:
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
If Labour led by 13%, they'd win comfortably, in reality.Jonathan said:
They said stuff like that in 1992. Labour could never win a majority again they said.TheScreamingEagles said:“Labour already needs a 1997-sized lead to get a majority of just one seat. It looks as if it’s going to be even more difficult on these numbers,” Mr Baston said.
0 -
Or things like this -nigel4england said:
Not just this story, but the way he has behaved in the Commons this week.kle4 said:
Assuming the story is true.nigel4england said:
Far from being the great Statesman we all thought he was, Cameron is showing himself to be a childish bully who lashes out if he cannot get his own way.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.
David Allen Green @DavidAllenGreen
The Prime Minister has ordered that the Lord Chancellor cannot now have advice on EU law. Extraordinary. https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/702546674586140672 …0 -
The reports don't say Cameron is going after Gove. They say Cameron is being urged by some anonymous people to remove Gove. I'm sure Cameron won't. It's just the Telegraph stirring.Alistair said:I honesty cannot believe these reports about Cameron going after Gove.
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.0 -
Schengen can't survive two million migrants this year. Just a fact.0
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If there were a consensus about what Leave meant then you would be right, but the huge divergence between the potential end points means that a narrow Leave win could be the worst possible outcome. If that's the result we should have a snap general election in which new leadership can be elected to negotiate the exit based on a prospectus they put to the people. An internal Tory coup in those circumstances would be undemocratic.Sean_F said:
A better result would be a win for Leave. Even a win by 1% would put the issue to bed.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest question is the scale of the result. My fear is a near 50/50 result because what should have been a cathartic moment will become the source of endless wasted political infighting for decades more. The best result for our politics would be an emphatic win for Remain.AndyJS said:
You think a Remain win is in the bag? I see a 50/50 situation.williamglenn said:
That's the nub of it, and really, they should get over themselves. Cameron has delivered on his commitment to hold a referendum. No-one can seriously cry foul that he is on the other side of the argument. The leave campaign has had years or even decades to form a coherent narrative and movement to convince the people to vote to leave. If it doesn't happen now the recriminations should be in their own camp.kle4 said:Too many Leave supporters will not forgive Cameron for beating them.
0
