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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.

    He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.

    NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
    I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.

    Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
    Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
    That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.

    As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
    What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
    Dover has got to be a runner
    Kent and Sussex were rather more pro-Common Market than average in the 75 Referendum.
    We're there thousands of African migrants trying to stow across the channel from Calais back then?
    I don't think so; but how would leaving the EU help the Calais Jungle situation?

    Bigger cross channel trade links now too.
    Have you been overdosing on the Daily Mail again ?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    AndyJS said:

    "Didcot Power Station building 'hanging by a thread'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-oxfordshire-35543274

    It definitely doesn't look like an explosion, all the debris are clustered in a single area, there is no scattering, and no reports of a blast or flames from witnesses.
    Looks like the building simply imploded.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: After concluding deal with Sturgeon, Osborne called Ruth Davidson - conservatives gunning for second place at Holyrood.
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    Sterling movements are not the end of the world. Boosts exports and hurts imports while ultimately helping savers and defeating the risk of deflation that has been hanging over our heads. Pretty much a win/win/win/win.

    Had we been suffering from inflation presently then it may be different.

    Of course, but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy. The Leavers airily dismiss this, and accuse those who point it out of lying/Europhilia etc, but it's a real concern.
    Same as with ERM and not joining the Euro, both worked out OK in the end, probably better than OK. What is different this time?

    So long as we switch to something like EFTA/EEA or get an equivalent trade deal I'm sure we'll be fine. I don't see a majority in the country against any form of trade deal.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Scott_P said:

    //twitter.com/agentp22/status/702193460544217088

    Swap the words 'Scottish' for 'European', and 'Scotland' for 'Europe', for a taste of the future.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:
    All satire on the SNP should be delivered like that.
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    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AZ poll
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/mbqf-r-23844

    T35 R23 C14

    Just about the last big WTA state, but in the final furlong anyhow...

    Seems Trump on his way to win everything but Texas at this point.

    Although I have found some areas where Rubio might win:

    Puerto Rico
    Wyoming
    Guam
    Mariana Trench
    Utah
    D.C.

    Though of course winning those areas are not exactly promising with delegates and probably offer scopes of ridicule "Rubio won the Guam caucus, wooo" .
    "Not exactly promising"

    Understatement of the year so far, lol. Not even sure where Mariana Trench is.
    It's the deepest point of the ocean, though they have a caucus on the small reefs above.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Mariana_Islands_Republican_caucuses,_2012

    Romney got 87% or 740 votes in 2012.
    Worth all of six delegates.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Latest: End of play Tuesday @itvnews Tory MP #EURef tally:
    REMAIN 147
    OUT 130
    UNDECIDED 36
    UNKNOWN 17
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    watford30 said:

    Swap the words 'Scottish' for 'European', and 'Scotland' for 'Europe', for a taste of the future.

    From a previous thread

    Nick Clegg's face, forever...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,395
    edited February 2016

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    Bad negotiation, yes I get it, with 28 members it's almost certain everyone will be disappointed.

    But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.

    We wouldn't have no influence. For those regulations that are negotiated at an international level we would have far more influence than we do now. For those regulations that are formulated and negotiated at an EU level concerning the single market - the only ones where the EEA agreement would apply - we would still have full participation in the instigation and formulation.
    We've been over this EEA members get no say on EU legislation they do get to sit on committees, usually concerning research or technology projects, of projects they have contributed to financially.

    Not the same as input into primary rule making - haven't the time to re-find the EEA link.
    Not so. According to the Norwegian government website the EFTA members have participation in all aspects of the drafting of Single Market legislation. I have posted the link.often enough.
    All in all, it has become more difficult to ensure that Norwegian interests are safeguarded when new legislation is being developed in the EU. It is therefore crucial for Norway to establish its national positions at an early stage in the legislative process and to follow all stages of the process closely from the preparatory or decisionshaping phase to the adoption of legislation. This may be followed by the development of common rules for implementing the legislation (comitology procedures) and amendments to the legislation. The capacity of the Norwegian authorities to participate actively in such processes is limited, and for this reason focus will be on major legislative and policy developments.

    sounds like they are doing Norway a favour. Nothing wrong with that, of course. But it is not an enshrined right for input into EU legislation.

    eu-norway.org/Global/SiteFolders/webeu/MeldSt5_UD_ENG.PDF
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    Mr. Nabavi, I think most would accept leaving the EU would involve short-term turbulence and, likely, economic pain.

    But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.

    Be bloody exciting though! A good time to be involved....
    Fun for the affluent for whom this is a game. Less so for the poor who would suffer from the turbulence.
    Who's better off currently? A poor individual in Australia, New Zealand or Canada - or a poor individual in Greece, Spain or Italy?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Was scheduled for demolition this weekend.

    I wonder if the idiots have drilled into the concrete support beams to plant the charges?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..

    You keep saying this.

    Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
    Yes: what it says in the agreement.

    The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.

    We protest.

    They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.

    We lose.
    No, I meant something much more authoritative. We can both read the agreement, and you've ignored the rest of it, most notably the strengthened protection against discrimination. My interpretation is the diametric opposite of yours (and accords with that of, for example, Open Europe), but neither of us are specialist lawyers.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but you're not a lawyer at all. And neither are Open Europe I think. I don't mean this as a criticism. It's a genuine inquiry.

    I think the key issue to understand here is what I put in one of my posts yesterday about the different ways common law and civil lawyers approach both the drafting and interpretations of such agreements. I think you are taking a very English approach, which is not how the European courts will interpret the documents on which you place such reliance. These documents are deliberately and studiedly ambiguous precisely in order to allow all parties to claim that they mean what suits them at the time. But that does not mean that when they are argued about in court the court takes the same view. Continental lawyers and civil servants steeped in this tradition are much much better in my experience at drafting those ambiguities in a way which gets them what they want.

    We are seeking to use the common law approach in a fundamentally civil law environment. The whole EU jurisprudence is not one based on a common law approach. And failing to understand that is one reason why viewing these agreements from a very English perspective - as you appear to me to be doing - is leading you to be far more optimistic about the eventual outcome than I am.
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    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Very strange — Rubio is 2.3 and Cruz 40 despite the fact that Cruz is the only one of the two showing any signs of being able to actually win a state.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938

    The gamble is that anti-Trump vote will finally collate around Rubio. Although I'm green on him, increasingly feeling he can't do it.
    Why not lay off then ?
    Agreed. If you're green, you don't think he'll do it and he'd 2.3, isn't now the perfect time to lay off?

    Even if Kasich were to withdraw after Nevada and Carson to continue, which ought to move Rubio back to second, he'd still be miles behind Trump.

    I agree that Cruz seems long at 40 although it'd take Trump to finally do something unacceptable and given that he seems to have been trying to test the limits of acceptability without finding them, the chances of him doing so now are slim. But then 39/1 are the odds for a slim chance.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy'

    Only a small part of the decline since November is linked to Brexit jitters, amounting to perhaps a few percent. The rest is down to shifts in interest rate expectations.

    The Brexit effect is trivial in the context of the swings you can get in FX markets.
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    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    Bad negotiation, yes I get it, with 28 members it's almost certain everyone will be disappointed.

    But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.

    We wouldn't have no influence. For those regulations that are negotiated at an international level we would have far more influence than we do now. For those regulations that are formulated and negotiated at an EU level concerning the single market - the only ones where the EEA agreement would apply - we would still have full participation in the instigation and formulation.
    We've been over this EEA members get no say on EU legislation they do get to sit on committees, usually concerning research or technology projects, of projects they have contributed to financially.

    Not the same as input into primary rule making - haven't the time to re-find the EEA link.
    Not so. According to the Norwegian government website the EFTA members have participation in all aspects of the drafting of Single Market legislation. I have posted the link.often enough.
    All in all, it has become more difficult to ensure that Norwegian interests are safeguarded when new legislation is being developed in the EU. It is therefore crucial for Norway to establish its national positions at an early stage in the legislative process and to follow all stages of the process closely from the preparatory or decisionshaping phase to the adoption of legislation. This may be followed by the development of common rules for implementing the legislation (comitology procedures) and amendments to the legislation. The capacity of the Norwegian authorities to participate actively in such processes is limited, and for this reason focus will be on major legislative and policy developments.

    sounds like they are doing Norway a favour. Nothing wrong with that, of course. But it is not an enshrined right for input into EU legislation.

    eu-norway.org/Global/SiteFolders/webeu/MeldSt5_UD_ENG.PDF
    "When the Commission begins the process of assessing and, if necessary, drafting new legislation in a field covered by the EEA Agreement, it is to obtain the views of experts from the EFTA states in the same way as it consults with experts from the EU member states"

    This is from the EEA agreement. It is a requirement not a courtesy.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    NJ poll
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/rutgers-eagleton-23845
    T38 R11 C10

    Irrelevant, as it's held on the last day in June.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Charles said:

    But @Cyclefree is and she agrees with me

    The lady has appeared, so I hope she can tell us.
    Have only just seen this. The lady is off now to a Paul Lewis concert. A fine pianist.

    As @SeanT would say: Laters......

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2016

    "When the Commission begins the process of assessing and, if necessary, drafting new legislation in a field covered by the EEA Agreement, it is to obtain the views of experts from the EFTA states in the same way as it consults with experts from the EU member states"

    This is from the EEA agreement. It is a requirement not a courtesy.

    A requirement to obtain their views, just as it is a requirement to have a review if we make an objection under Cameron's deal. How meaningful is that requirement given that Cameron's new one has been laughed away here?
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    runnymede said:

    'but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy'

    Only a small part of the decline since November is linked to Brexit jitters, amounting to perhaps a few percent. The rest is down to shifts in interest rate expectations.

    The Brexit effect is trivial in the context of the swings you can get in FX markets.

    Indeed we were forecast this time last year to raise rates before or at the same time as the Fed. Now the Fed is raising theirs and we are holding ours down, so a shift in FX is inevitable.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Labour Paul
    Wow the 'Labour Party Forum' really is home to unparalleled gravity-defying idiocy.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    AndyJS said:

    "Didcot Power Station building 'hanging by a thread'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-oxfordshire-35543274

    Hope it's a load-bearing thread.
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    What a delusional world you live in.
    Negotiations are ongoing between the EU and Japan for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. The first round of talks was held in April 2013.
    When this is finally completed are you seriously suggesting that Japan will negotiate something different with an independent UK, always assuming that it wanted to?
    Of course if we were in the EEA then we would fall into this deal naturally, but have had no say in it.
    Japan is as large a market as they come and the other the USA is also negotiating with the EU. The USA has already said it does not want to negotiate with an 'independent', non EU, UK.

    Your notions are to bonkers.

    Absolutely not true. Flightpath you are showing your ignorance again. When the EU or EFTA negotiate a free trade agreement that applies only to the specific organisation. EU free trade agreements do not apply to ETA and EFTA free trade agreements do not apply to the EU.

    This is why EFTA and Canada had a free trade agreement 6 years before the EU and Canada.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited February 2016

    "When the Commission begins the process of assessing and, if necessary, drafting new legislation in a field covered by the EEA Agreement, it is to obtain the views of experts from the EFTA states in the same way as it consults with experts from the EU member states"

    This is from the EEA agreement. It is a requirement not a courtesy.

    A requirement to obtain their views, just as it is a requirement to have a review if we make an objection under Cameron's deal. How meaningful is that requirement given that Cameron's new one has been laughed away here?
    It will be the same as what we have now, our experts will have a certain view, they will be ignored and the EU will plough ahead. We save £7bn per year in the process and companies that only trade domestically are free of the EU red tape.

    You are severely overestimating our current level of influence and popularity within the EU. Our form of laissez-faire capitalism is deeply unpopular in Southern Europe, Scandinavia, France and much of Eastern Europe. The only other country in Europe that as the same model is Switzerland and they aren't in the EU.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScottyNational: Fiscal deal : Brilliant news as 2016 SNP ensure Scotland won't lose out by the imposition of Full Fiscal Autonomy as demanded by 2014 SNP
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,926

    Other than the risk of this turning into a proxy referendum on immigration...However I think so long as this isn't a proxy referendum on migration that I should vote how I believe and forget about those concerns...

    You vote REMAIN or LEAVE as your conscience dictates. But to contend that (for many people) this is not a proxy referendum on immigration is to take refuge in fantasy. Witness @Viceroy's response to me last night, namely:
    Viceroy said:

    My belief is the Leave campaign ought to hold back on immigration until the final weeks and then go nuclear with the simple message that if you want to control immigration (in the midst of the chaos that will engulf the continent with the refugees this summer) then the only way is to leave the European Union. Billboards and the lot.

    Or conversely you could just look at the innumerable threads since 2011 in which levels of "concern about immigration" was treated as a proxy for "concern about the EU". Or you could read Allison Person's cri de coeur in the Telegraph, Or...well, that's enough to be going on with.

    I do not claim that, for all Eurosceptics, immigration is the acknowledged or unacknowleged driver for a LEAVE: particularly the libertarian right and the sovereignists, both of whom are represented here. But it is the thing that has driven LEAVE from its sub-40% state a few years ago, to (IMHO) it's current level of about 55% and rising. To pretend otherwise is to require greater mental gymnastics than I can perform sober.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    runnymede said:

    'but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy'

    Only a small part of the decline since November is linked to Brexit jitters, amounting to perhaps a few percent. The rest is down to shifts in interest rate expectations.

    The Brexit effect is trivial in the context of the swings you can get in FX markets.

    Indeed we were forecast this time last year to raise rates before or at the same time as the Fed. Now the Fed is raising theirs and we are holding ours down, so a shift in FX is inevitable.
    yebbut BORIS ! 30 MILLION JOBS ! ARMAGEDDON !
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,926

    Mr. Nabavi, I think most would accept leaving the EU would involve short-term turbulence and, likely, economic pain.

    But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.

    Be bloody exciting though! A good time to be involved....
    Fun for the affluent for whom this is a game. Less so for the poor who would suffer from the turbulence.
    That sounds exactly like the relative effects the mass immigration of the last decade has had.

    An increase in interest rates would make their life worse, not better.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is this figure accurate?

    James Bartholomew
    If we left EU, our trade would still be covered by the World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs. So maximum extra cost 0.43% of GDP.
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    Charles said:


    What a delusional world you live in.
    Negotiations are ongoing between the EU and Japan for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. The first round of talks was held in April 2013.
    When this is finally completed are you seriously suggesting that Japan will negotiate something different with an independent UK, always assuming that it wanted to?
    Of course if we were in the EEA then we would fall into this deal naturally, but have had no say in it.
    Japan is as large a market as they come and the other the USA is also negotiating with the EU. The USA has already said it does not want to negotiate with an 'independent', non EU, UK.

    Your notions are to bonkers.

    To believe that the US will not do a deal with an independent UK is ludicrous.

    They have *said* that they won't because they want the UK to remain in the EU.

    But if the UK came out they would change their mind sharpish.

    The one certainty in this world is that the USA ruthlessly pursues their own interests and take no prisoners in the process
    Agreed 100%. The USA views it in their own self-interest to have the UK in the EU not because it is good for the UK, but because it is good for America. Because we make the EU more aligned to America's interests and without us the EU would be a lot less agreeable to America. So America out of entirely selfish concerns want us to stay in the EU.

    However one thing Americans are not against is independence and if we go independent America will live with it. They're not going to encourage it though.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Is this figure accurate?

    James Bartholomew
    If we left EU, our trade would still be covered by the World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs. So maximum extra cost 0.43% of GDP.

    so about 3 months value destruction by Gordon brown
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,395

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    Bad negotiation, yes I get it, with 28 members it's almost certain everyone will be disappointed.

    But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.

    We wouldn't have no influence. For those regulations that are negotiated at an international level we would have far more influence than we do now. For those regulations that are formulated and negotiated at an EU level concerning the single market - the only ones where the EEA agreement would apply - we would still have full participation in the instigation and formulation.
    We've been over this EEA members get no say on EU legislation they do get to sit on committees, usually concerning research or technology projects, of projects they have contributed to financially.

    Not the same as input into primary rule making - haven't the time to re-find the EEA link.
    Not so. According to the Norwegian government website the EFTA members have participation in all aspects of the drafting of Single Market legislation. I have posted the link.often enough.
    All in all, it has become more difficult to ensure that Norwegian interests are safeguarded when new legislation is being developed in the EU. It is therefore crucial for Norway to establish its national positions at an early stage in the legislative process and to follow all stages of the process closely from the preparatory or decisionshaping phase to the adoption of legislation. This may be followed by the development of common rules for implementing the legislation (comitology procedures) and amendments to the legislation. The capacity of the Norwegian authorities to participate actively in such processes is limited, and for this reason focus will be on major legislative and policy developments.

    sounds like they are doing Norway a favour. Nothing wrong with that, of course. But it is not an enshrined right for input into EU legislation.

    eu-norway.org/Global/SiteFolders/webeu/MeldSt5_UD_ENG.PDF
    "When the Commission begins the process of assessing and, if necessary, drafting new legislation in a field covered by the EEA Agreement, it is to obtain the views of experts from the EFTA states in the same way as it consults with experts from the EU member states"

    This is from the EEA agreement. It is a requirement not a courtesy.
    Oh absolutely consult but the actual decision making power is limited. Every document says that.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117
    Quinnipiac Ohio

    GOP
    Trump 31
    Kasich 26
    Cruz 21
    Rubio 13
    Carson 5

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 40
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh02232016_Osm46vb.pdf
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @euanmccolm: this thwocking great simpleton tweeted this more than an hour after the first minister addressed holyrood. https://t.co/OiZPQjD7B0
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    @euanmccolm: this thwocking great simpleton tweeted this more than an hour after the first minister addressed holyrood. https://t.co/OiZPQjD7B0

    Link not working.
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    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe
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    viewcode said:

    Other than the risk of this turning into a proxy referendum on immigration...However I think so long as this isn't a proxy referendum on migration that I should vote how I believe and forget about those concerns...

    You vote REMAIN or LEAVE as your conscience dictates. But to contend that (for many people) this is not a proxy referendum on immigration is to take refuge in fantasy. Witness @Viceroy's response to me last night, namely:
    Viceroy said:

    My belief is the Leave campaign ought to hold back on immigration until the final weeks and then go nuclear with the simple message that if you want to control immigration (in the midst of the chaos that will engulf the continent with the refugees this summer) then the only way is to leave the European Union. Billboards and the lot.

    Or conversely you could just look at the innumerable threads since 2011 in which levels of "concern about immigration" was treated as a proxy for "concern about the EU". Or you could read Allison Person's cri de coeur in the Telegraph, Or...well, that's enough to be going on with.

    I do not claim that, for all Eurosceptics, immigration is the acknowledged or unacknowleged driver for a LEAVE: particularly the libertarian right and the sovereignists, both of whom are represented here. But it is the thing that has driven LEAVE from its sub-40% state a few years ago, to (IMHO) it's current level of about 55% and rising. To pretend otherwise is to require greater mental gymnastics than I can perform sober.
    It may be a proxy for some, I know that full well. But it isn't for me. Seeing nothing but anti-immigration rhetoric has been a right turnoff for me and rightly so. However the chorus of other arguments is getting louder and louder which is appealing.

    Now if Grassroots Out or anything else Farage and Banks have their mitts on become the official spokespeople of the Leave campaign I have no doubt the anti-immigration chorus will overwhelm everything else. In that scenario I almost certainly vote Remain.

    If Vote Leave lead on a control our own destiny campaign and marginalise the immigration issue (even if Farage etc bang the drum of it in the background) then I can get behind that.

    Immigration has probably got all the votes it will get, it's been banged on about for years. Vote Leave is I think the best chance to appeal to more marginal voters like myself.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Is this figure accurate?

    James Bartholomew
    If we left EU, our trade would still be covered by the World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs. So maximum extra cost 0.43% of GDP.

    A drop in the ocean.

    So, the real debate is about democracy and social policy?
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    "When the Commission begins the process of assessing and, if necessary, drafting new legislation in a field covered by the EEA Agreement, it is to obtain the views of experts from the EFTA states in the same way as it consults with experts from the EU member states"

    This is from the EEA agreement. It is a requirement not a courtesy.

    A requirement to obtain their views, just as it is a requirement to have a review if we make an objection under Cameron's deal. How meaningful is that requirement given that Cameron's new one has been laughed away here?
    This is not at the decision making stage. This is the formulation of new legislation. Indeed EFTA members also have the right to instigate this. It is making sure the legislation is for for all all participants.

    And crucially it only applies to a small amount of legislation - that concerned with the single market. For the rest of the legislative burden on EFTA countries the EU has no input at all.

    And in the end if there is something that fundamentally attacks the interests of an EFTA country they have a veto. Something we do not currently have inside the EU.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AndyJS said:


    Link not working.

    He deleted the tweet. Preserved for posterity

    @euanmccolm: that simpleton tweet, here. https://t.co/AwOQXcYxNG
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    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Many would disagree with your language and views
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    TOPPING said:

    Oh absolutely consult but the actual decision making power is limited. Every document says that.

    So the same as today. Our decision making power is already very diminished. The only reason we have been able to opt out of the stupid migrant quota is because we're not in schengen. Dave would have actively opt into it.

    The EU wants our money and our consumer purchasing power, nothing more.
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    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    No need for that sort of language.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,926

    runnymede said:

    'but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy'

    Only a small part of the decline since November is linked to Brexit jitters, amounting to perhaps a few percent. The rest is down to shifts in interest rate expectations.

    The Brexit effect is trivial in the context of the swings you can get in FX markets.

    Indeed we were forecast this time last year to raise rates before or at the same time as the Fed. Now the Fed is raising theirs and we are holding ours down, so a shift in FX is inevitable.
    I pointed this out to you last night. Up until Autumn last year, interest rates were predicted to rise during 2016. Then the BOE pointed out that "forward guidance" was more-or-less bullcrap, and the prediction reversed to low-thru-2016-and-probably-longer. Now with the Brexit fears, GBP is quietly collapsing against USD and some of the wilder predictions see it hitting $1.20, which is lower than the 2008/9 recession and (as @JohnMoney pointed out last night) is back to levels last seen in the mid-1980's, when interest rates were 14%. If it hits that level then interest rates will have to rise.

    You can't legitimately dismiss £1=$1.20 as a "market correction" or part of normal market volatility, it's an exceptional event that should be given its full measure.
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    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    Doesn't take long to find this.

    "Toyota threat to quit UK over euro"

    From January 2000. I assume the fact they are making the same hollow threat 16 years later means they had some other pressing reason for not leaving back in 2000.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
  • Options

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sure is.
    chestnut said:

    Is this figure accurate?

    James Bartholomew
    If we left EU, our trade would still be covered by the World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs. So maximum extra cost 0.43% of GDP.

    A drop in the ocean.

    So, the real debate is about democracy and social policy?
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    Cyclefree said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong but you're not a lawyer at all. And neither are Open Europe I think. I don't mean this as a criticism. It's a genuine inquiry.

    I think the key issue to understand here is what I put in one of my posts yesterday about the different ways common law and civil lawyers approach both the drafting and interpretations of such agreements. I think you are taking a very English approach, which is not how the European courts will interpret the documents on which you place such reliance. These documents are deliberately and studiedly ambiguous precisely in order to allow all parties to claim that they mean what suits them at the time. But that does not mean that when they are argued about in court the court takes the same view. Continental lawyers and civil servants steeped in this tradition are much much better in my experience at drafting those ambiguities in a way which gets them what they want.

    We are seeking to use the common law approach in a fundamentally civil law environment. The whole EU jurisprudence is not one based on a common law approach. And failing to understand that is one reason why viewing these agreements from a very English perspective - as you appear to me to be doing - is leading you to be far more optimistic about the eventual outcome than I am.

    No, I'm not a lawyer, and I accept the point you make about interpretation.

    However, what I am looking for is an authoritative view, from someone specialised in the arcane matters of EU law and financial regulation, to give an informed view on whether the renegotiation provides some extra protection for the City (as I currently believe to be the case), makes no difference (which if I understand you correctly, is your position), or actually makes things worse (which Charles is claiming).
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    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Many would disagree with your language and views
    Including many on the Leave side.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Golly Dixie, you're sorely irked. And as a loyal foot soldier, several here will sympathise.
    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    This kind of froth from Leavers will result in a vote to Remain. No arguments, just insults.

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    It would be interesting to compare the internal party divisions among MPs before the 1975 referendum, specifically the Commons vote on the renegotiated terms which I think took place in March/April. I might search back the old Hansards if they are on line for that period. My recollection, probably erroneous, is that a small majority of Labour MPs backed withdrawal, but that may just be backbenchers. The Tories then were overwhelmingly to remain of course.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
    Look at what they do not what they say. As Richard T has pointed out the same people who were leaving becuase of the Euro are still here. A bit like all those bankers who went to Switzerland but didn't.

    If Toyota bugger off it simply means the other VMs sell more cars and become more profitable.
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    Latest: End of play Tuesday @itvnews Tory MP #EURef tally:
    REMAIN 147
    OUT 130
    UNDECIDED 36
    UNKNOWN 17

    By my count, a majority of the Tory backbenches now oppose the Government position and support Brexit.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Calm down. You are not doing as badly as all that. Your poll figures are ok.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
    Companies which have spent billions of dollars building and developing a factory and workforce are not about to leave the UK and wave goodbye to all of that investment. The RoI picture post Leave wouldn't be all that different to today. Also depending on how aggressive a post Leave government is in chasing free trade deals with smaller and mid sized countries there could be a net increase in RoI even if we have to use WTO conditions for a while with the EU.
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    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
    Look at what they do not what they say. As Richard T has pointed out the same people who were leaving becuase of the Euro are still here. A bit like all those bankers who went to Switzerland but didn't.

    If Toyota bugger off it simply means the other VMs sell more cars and become more profitable.
    I don't think the employees or their families will think like that. This will become a defining issue and its no use leave telling firms to push off (polite)
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    No need for that sort of language.
    I'm very angry. Very, very angry. Cameron is splitting the party for no reason. This should have been done amicably. He could ruin the party. And I hate the way party members are beign told by Cameron what w can adn cannot say. Angry
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    Doesn't take long to find this.

    "Toyota threat to quit UK over euro"

    From January 2000. I assume the fact they are making the same hollow threat 16 years later means they had some other pressing reason for not leaving back in 2000.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
    What conceivable motive would Toyota have for making a 'hollow threat'?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:
    Another last day state, and a PR one to boot. Irrelevant.

    Why aren't they polling the ones that are actually going to vote next week, and almost certainly decide the race?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Shocker
    Sky News contacted the overwhelming majority of the companies which signed Tuesday's letter, which was orchestrated by Downing Street officials and Baroness Rock, a senior figure in the Conservative Party.

    The companies were asked whether they were drawing up plans to cut jobs and investment in the UK, and whether they were delaying investment decisions until after the referendum.

    Dozens responded by saying that they had no plans to cut jobs or declining to comment.

    Only a handful of smaller companies said they were reconsidering investment decisions.
    http://news.sky.com/story/1647357/questions-raised-over-brexit-bosses-threat
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    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    I am disappointed too, and that sort of language against Cameron probably doesn't help our cause.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,926

    Is this figure accurate?

    James Bartholomew
    If we left EU, our trade would still be covered by the World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs. So maximum extra cost 0.43% of GDP.

    It rather depends whether the phrase "World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs" means that the EU-ex-UK cannot impose tariffs, common or otherwise, on the UK. I assume that the EU can impose tariffs on non-EU countries and I also assume those tariffs are compatible with the WTO. If both assumptions are correct, then the EU can impose WTO-compatible tariffs on the UK once UK becomes non-EU.

    If you want an actual number, take the highest tariff the EU currently imposes on a non-EU country, then take the lowest tariff it imposes on ditto, then I assume a post-Brexit EU tariff will be within that range. That doesn't really answer your question, but it'll give you a plausible range to be going on with.
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    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    No need for that sort of language.
    I'm very angry. Very, very angry. Cameron is splitting the party for no reason. This should have been done amicably. He could ruin the party. And I hate the way party members are beign told by Cameron what w can adn cannot say. Angry
    And you will lose the argument for your side if you continue with your language. I have no doubt many are very annoyed with Boris
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    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    Doesn't take long to find this.

    "Toyota threat to quit UK over euro"

    From January 2000. I assume the fact they are making the same hollow threat 16 years later means they had some other pressing reason for not leaving back in 2000.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
    I'm amazed we survived outside the Euro.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited February 2016
    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Mark you down as a "Undecided" shall we?
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    Doesn't take long to find this.

    "Toyota threat to quit UK over euro"

    From January 2000. I assume the fact they are making the same hollow threat 16 years later means they had some other pressing reason for not leaving back in 2000.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
    yes, so many businesses said we had to join the Euro. Pointless, backward, feeble businesses. Britain was at its greatest outside the EU. Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal all suffered in the EU. Time for freedom
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ReutersPolitics: UPDATE: Senate judiciary committee Republicans refuse to hold Supreme Court replacement hearings until next president.
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    JackW said:

    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Mark you down as a "Undecided! shall we?
    :lol:
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Many would disagree with your language and views
    Sorry, I'm angry.
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    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
    Well airbus won't be happy until we have a much closer membership of the EU.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-07-04/airbus-ceo-says-europe-needs-common-fiscal-defense-policies
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
    Look at what they do not what they say. As Richard T has pointed out the same people who were leaving becuase of the Euro are still here. A bit like all those bankers who went to Switzerland but didn't.

    If Toyota bugger off it simply means the other VMs sell more cars and become more profitable.
    I don't think the employees or their families will think like that. This will become a defining issue and its no use leave telling firms to push off (polite)
    Total guff

    we were in the EU when

    Peugeot closed their operations in Ryton and moved them to Slovakia
    Ford closed their operation in Dagenham and moved to Valencia and Cologne
    Ford closed the Transit line in Southampton and moved it to Turkey
    LDV closed and was moved to China
    Rover was ditched by BMW
    GM closed in Bedford and moved to Hungary

    The EU protects nothing, multinats move to suit themselves and if anything being in the EU makes it easier for them to close their UK operations.



  • Options

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    Doesn't take long to find this.

    "Toyota threat to quit UK over euro"

    From January 2000. I assume the fact they are making the same hollow threat 16 years later means they had some other pressing reason for not leaving back in 2000.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
    What conceivable motive would Toyota have for making a 'hollow threat'?
    Good question, but since they've done it once it's likely this is the same again.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    And, if I recall correctly, you are a loyal and hard-working Tory activist.

    Cameron needs to remember that he's just the tenant, not the owner of the Tory party
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,926

    Shocker

    Sky News contacted the overwhelming majority of the companies which signed Tuesday's letter, which was orchestrated by Downing Street officials and Baroness Rock, a senior figure in the Conservative Party.

    The companies were asked whether they were drawing up plans to cut jobs and investment in the UK, and whether they were delaying investment decisions until after the referendum.

    Dozens responded by saying that they had no plans to cut jobs or declining to comment.

    Only a handful of smaller companies said they were reconsidering investment decisions.
    http://news.sky.com/story/1647357/questions-raised-over-brexit-bosses-threat

    If I may..."dozens"? "a handful"? Numbers please. From the article, tell me:

    * how many signed the letter
    * how many were contacted
    * how many responded
    * Of those that responded, tell me how many said they had plans to cut jobs/investement, how many said they didn't, and how many refused to say one way or the other.

    (sorry, i have a nephew doing film studies, and pestering him to analyse data critically is an endless source of luls).



  • Options

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    Doesn't take long to find this.

    "Toyota threat to quit UK over euro"

    From January 2000. I assume the fact they are making the same hollow threat 16 years later means they had some other pressing reason for not leaving back in 2000.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
    What conceivable motive would Toyota have for making a 'hollow threat'?
    Ask Toyota. They made the threat in 2000 and then failed to act on it. Hence hollow.
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    viewcode said:

    Mr. Nabavi, I think most would accept leaving the EU would involve short-term turbulence and, likely, economic pain.

    But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.

    Be bloody exciting though! A good time to be involved....
    Fun for the affluent for whom this is a game. Less so for the poor who would suffer from the turbulence.
    That sounds exactly like the relative effects the mass immigration of the last decade has had.

    An increase in interest rates would make their life worse, not better.
    An increase in interest rates is good for savers and those who want to buy a house.

    Or don't such people matter to you ?
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    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Cameron's mockery of Boris's painful divorce was worthy of McBride.
    In a better time Cameron would have been challenged to a duel for his caddish behaviour.
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    We are going to have four months of companies saying jobs will be lost on Leave. Every day. I wouldn't get too excited about it. The Beeb will dutifully repeat the message.

    However, for betting purposes, it's important to understand the mountain Leave have to climb in this respect. It's a very hard message to counter. Trashing the messenger won't cut it.
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    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
    Look at what they do not what they say. As Richard T has pointed out the same people who were leaving becuase of the Euro are still here. A bit like all those bankers who went to Switzerland but didn't.

    If Toyota bugger off it simply means the other VMs sell more cars and become more profitable.
    I don't think the employees or their families will think like that. This will become a defining issue and its no use leave telling firms to push off (polite)
    What is stupid by the leavers is that they are saying 'so what?', they are brazening it that it might or would not happen. Can they tell us the names of all the companies which would fall over themselves to leave the EU to come here or who would flock to here to be outside the EU and not inside?
    Leave are trying to make out that leaving is a shot to nothing a free hit. It is the opposite.
    And the safeguard of leave the EU and all the politics stuff behind and join the EEA, which is at least plausible? Why surprise surprise - so what? It makes no difference we still have free movement of labour which is the mast the leavers have tied themselves to.
    The rancid wing of the Leavers do not want the EEA, their demands will only just start if leave were to win.

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Well said.
    Charles said:

    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    And, if I recall correctly, you are a loyal and hard-working Tory activist.

    Cameron needs to remember that he's just the tenant, not the owner of the Tory party
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    Doesn't take long to find this.

    "Toyota threat to quit UK over euro"

    From January 2000. I assume the fact they are making the same hollow threat 16 years later means they had some other pressing reason for not leaving back in 2000.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
    What conceivable motive would Toyota have for making a 'hollow threat'?
    What conceivable motive would Kraft have to lie to Parliament about UK jobs and then close their Bristol factory and move all the work to Poland ?

  • Options

    Shocker

    Sky News contacted the overwhelming majority of the companies which signed Tuesday's letter, which was orchestrated by Downing Street officials and Baroness Rock, a senior figure in the Conservative Party.

    The companies were asked whether they were drawing up plans to cut jobs and investment in the UK, and whether they were delaying investment decisions until after the referendum.

    Dozens responded by saying that they had no plans to cut jobs or declining to comment.

    Only a handful of smaller companies said they were reconsidering investment decisions.
    http://news.sky.com/story/1647357/questions-raised-over-brexit-bosses-threat

    Vote Leave should be all over this. They can't afford to wait until 1st April.

    BSE and the Government will have a grid plan of Project Fear announcements to drip out consistently over the next 4 months. Vote Leave need to anticipate each of these and orchestra the same to counter.

    They need an untouchables strategy:

    Remain pulls a knife, Leave pulls a gun

    Remain sends one of your argument's to the hospital, Leave sends one of theirs to the morgue
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    Ask Toyota. They made the threat in 2000 and then failed to act on it. Hence hollow.

    Or it turned out differently from what they honestly expected.

    You don't seem to be able to get your head around the idea that people who disagree with you might be honest.
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    What conceivable motive would Kraft have to lie to Parliament about UK jobs and then close their Bristol factory and move all the work to Poland ?

    The obvious one. Why do you ask?
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    Big news on ITN - Toyota shoot leave's fox. Must stay in Europe

    or what they'll move to France and their worst performing factory ?

    LOL
    They are making an important statement that cannot easily be dismissed and Airbus said much the same today. Airbus in North Wales is huge for the economy together with Bristol
    Look at what they do not what they say. As Richard T has pointed out the same people who were leaving becuase of the Euro are still here. A bit like all those bankers who went to Switzerland but didn't.

    If Toyota bugger off it simply means the other VMs sell more cars and become more profitable.
    I don't think the employees or their families will think like that. This will become a defining issue and its no use leave telling firms to push off (polite)
    Total guff

    we were in the EU when

    Peugeot closed their operations in Ryton and moved them to Slovakia
    Ford closed their operation in Dagenham and moved to Valencia and Cologne
    Ford closed the Transit line in Southampton and moved it to Turkey
    LDV closed and was moved to China
    Rover was ditched by BMW
    GM closed in Bedford and moved to Hungary

    The EU protects nothing, multinats move to suit themselves and if anything being in the EU makes it easier for them to close their UK operations.



    This will be an issue to voters in these industries whether you like it or not
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    FarmersForBritain
    Interesting result so far in Farmers Weekly's 'EU - In or Out' poll. Have your say here: https://t.co/kl1mZvp0cG https://t.co/3W2plmqlal
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    We are going to have four months of companies saying jobs will be lost on Leave. Every day. I wouldn't get too excited about it. The Beeb will dutifully repeat the message.

    However, for betting purposes, it's important to understand the mountain Leave have to climb in this respect. It's a very hard message to counter. Trashing the messenger won't cut it.

    No just trash the message by pointing out they have said it all before and done nothing about it. No one is impressed by companies when they cry wolf like this.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @kevverage: Don't (yet) know enough to critique, but reads as an admirably reasonable, rational pro #Brexit economic analysis https://t.co/EM3YafsWZN
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    Golly Dixie, you're sorely irked. And as a loyal foot soldier, several here will sympathise.

    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Are you serious? You want to support that rambling load of tripe? Get away with you. You have lost the plot big time.
    What we have is a referendum and what do we get - codswollop like that from people who claimed they wanted a referendum.
    Can you tell me where Carswell is? Ukip's leading MP? You might have thought he would have been allowed a comment by at least 1 of the 2 or is it 3 leave groupings. What are his thoughts on immigration?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited February 2016

    We are going to have four months of companies saying jobs will be lost on Leave. Every day. I wouldn't get too excited about it. The Beeb will dutifully repeat the message.

    However, for betting purposes, it's important to understand the mountain Leave have to climb in this respect. It's a very hard message to counter. Trashing the messenger won't cut it.

    LOL you've clearly left the world of work.

    My wife amd malc both work for the same IT company. Currently they are being told there is a redundancy programme and jobs are heading to Poland. How is the EU preserving their jobs ?

    The example I quote is current but just about everyone I know has had a similar experience. So where's the job security ?

    It sits in places like France and Germany because the multinats find it too hard and too expensive to restructure in those countries so the Brits take the pain.

    Job security - mon cul !
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    No just trash the message by pointing out they have said it all before and done nothing about it. No one is impressed by companies when they cry wolf like this.

    I'm not so sure about that. People are going to hear the same message over and over again. They'll probably discount a lot of it as scaremongering and exaggeration, of course.

    But the Remain side don't need to prove their case. They just need to sow doubt.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dixie said:

    Cameron is an absolute sh*t. People voted for a referendum, a free f*cking vote and that c*nt Cameron now thinks he owns us. How dare he treat the blonde bombshell like he did. What a c*nt. Hope Leavers actually vote and stuff the effing liberal elite across UK and Europe.

    Cameron has set a date for the referendum and allowed ministers to campaign on either side.

    He took the mickey out of BoJo for promoting the ridiculous idea that voting Leave would bring a better deal and another chance to stay in. Lots of people think that is daft.

    But I see this is going to be a civil debate in the Tory party! Indeed they seem to be going down the SLAB route of splitting the elected members from the grassroots.

    Popcorn time!
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