Mr Meeks claimed recently there was a Leave plant on here, I'm outing him as Scott_P
I'm happy to listen to decent arguments for Remain, but these ones are just scaremongering and farcical.
3. Last year, as @Charles is keen to point out, we won a lawsuit which prevented the ECB repatriating all euro-denominated clearing institutions back to the Eurozone as it violated the principle of the single market. If we were outside the EU do we think we could win that lawsuit?
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal.
But outside the EU, we can clear whatever trades we like.
Norway implements less than 10% of the EU's regulations (it isn't even compelled to do that much) and chooses for itself on everything else. So how is that resigning sovereignty?
If it wants to sell anything in the EU, the products have to comply with EU regs they can't write.
We sell quite a lot of stuff to the EU...
If we want to sell anything to the USA, the products have to comply with USA regs we can't write.
I run a small business that does no international trade. Yet I need to observe a whole swathe of European regulations that have nothing to do with trade. If we were in the EEA we could decide on those laws ourselves.
But WOULD we adopt our own measures? Your small business might only trade domestically, but thousands of others will trade with the EU. The demand for UK law to coincide with EU standards would be deafening. And even if it wasn't, companies would mostly choose to adopt EU standards for ease and convenience. And anything imported to the UK from the EU would be of a common EU standard, so our consumers would continue to be used to products meeting EU standards.
For selling into Europe we will need to comply with EU regulations.
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
More important for selling to say Japan would would not have to follow EU regulations AND Japanese regulations, which makes us more competitive with non-EU countries who can produce items to JUST Japanese regulations and save themselves one set of compliance costs.
@Philip_Thompson - I know you haven't made a final decision yet and, I just wanted to say, I'm delighted you're seriously considering joining us Leavers.
I look forward to, hopefully, campaigning together with you.
Thanks.
Other than the risk of this turning into a proxy referendum on immigration if Farage's mob has anything to do with it, I'm still concerned about this becoming a running sore 90's style within the Tories and don't see any plausible path to a Leave victory unless a swathe of left-wing voters can be convinced.
However I think so long as this isn't a proxy referendum on migration that I should vote how I believe and forget about those concerns and am currently leaning Leave which is totally new and weird. Genuinely torn though which makes me sympathetic with MPs who are attacked here for being disingenuous for appearing so themselves.
I understand.
I think different people will have different reasons for voting Leave, and I try and respect that.
Ultimately, this is about this country regaining sovereignty so we can meaningfully have precisely those debates, and decide what it is we really want, and change our minds if it isn't.
One aspect of these sums is that some of the EU27 may be very happy to negotiate a fairly open free trade agreement (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands) but others may be much less keen unless free movement continues, welfare rights etc (some of Eastern Europe). A free trade area could be blocked even if a majority of the EU wanted it. The negotiations and wheeler-dealing would just be beginning.
Yes, this is a key point, and one which certainly adds to the uncertainty, especially if we try to go outside the EEA-style framework. We could easily end up with a deal which is damaging to both sides, and most especially to the City.
Mr. Slackbladder, it'd be shocking if it were under 1m. Apparently around 1.8m EU-wide, and over a million just to Germany, came in 2015. The numbers for January were hugely up on 2015.
One suspects the plan, linked to by Mr. Indigo just below, of the EU to suspend passport checks at the edges of Schengen when it's busy will not necessarily deter the hordes of migrants.
After an extensive ring round, cajoling and much browbeating the updated count for Tory MPs is now; 140 for Out, 146 for In. This is the first time that Guido’s list has shown the Remainians leading. 44 still in play…
The EU, especially Jerry, sells a lot more to us than we do to them.
Scott_P:
No, they really don't
Yes, they don't. I'll try again, and type slowly...
What percentage of UK exports goes to the EU? Clue, it's a big number. We sell them lots of our stuff
What percentage of EU exports come to the UK? Clue, it's not a big number. They don't sell us lots of stuff
The EU, does not sell us a lot more to us than we do to them. We are a small EU customer. They are a huge UK customer.
Sorry if this is too complicated for some
I confess I hadn't thought of it like that before, and clearly nor had a lot of other esteemed posters who don't understand the point you are making. (Although you aren't trying very hard to explain it, and I suspect you are enjoying it...)
Take Austria as a random example
The proportion of their exports which go to the UK - i.e. the ones which may be affected by Brexit - is pretty small. All other Austrian exports are unaffected.
But for Britain, the relevant figure is ALSO the proportion which could be affected by Brexit not just what we export to Austria
So Austria is much less affected by Brexit than we are.
Repeat for all other EU nations.
Ergo, Britain is much more affected by Brexit than any other EU country. The comparison of British exports to the EU and total EU exports to Britain is far less relevant.
hmmm. But I still think the absolute figure for German exports to the UK is big enough for them to care at least a bit that trade should continue to flourish
One aspect of these sums is that some of the EU27 may be very happy to negotiate a fairly open free trade agreement (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands) but others may be much less keen unless free movement continues, welfare rights etc (some of Eastern Europe). A free trade area could be blocked even if a majority of the EU wanted it. The negotiations and wheeler-dealing would just be beginning.
Hhhmmm ....
Cameron's EU negotiations were as nothing compared to the those Chez JackW relating to my return to PB ....
I was finally given exceptionally LEAVE to REMAIN on site .... but the reckoning .... OUCH !! ..
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Didn't realise you were Odiham - I have cousins (the Sharps and the Hudsons) living there. Other cousins and in Dogmersfield, but I'm a foreigner as I grew up in Wootton St. Lawrence.
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
@Philip_Thompson - I know you haven't made a final decision yet and, I just wanted to say, I'm delighted you're seriously considering joining us Leavers.
I look forward to, hopefully, campaigning together with you.
Thanks.
Other than the risk of this turning into a proxy referendum on immigration if Farage's mob has anything to do with it, I'm still concerned about this becoming a running sore 90's style within the Tories and don't see any plausible path to a Leave victory unless a swathe of left-wing voters can be convinced.
However I think so long as this isn't a proxy referendum on migration that I should vote how I believe and forget about those concerns and am currently leaning Leave which is totally new and weird. Genuinely torn though which makes me sympathetic with MPs who are attacked here for being disingenuous for appearing so themselves.
If you are interested in EEA+EFTA resources I recommend the following:
Norway implements less than 10% of the EU's regulations (it isn't even compelled to do that much) and chooses for itself on everything else. So how is that resigning sovereignty?
If it wants to sell anything in the EU, the products have to comply with EU regs they can't write.
We sell quite a lot of stuff to the EU...
If we want to sell anything to the USA, the products have to comply with USA regs we can't write.
I run a small business that does no international trade. Yet I need to observe a whole swathe of European regulations that have nothing to do with trade. If we were in the EEA we could decide on those laws ourselves.
But WOULD we adopt our own measures? Your small business might only trade domestically, but thousands of others will trade with the EU. The demand for UK law to coincide with EU standards would be deafening. And even if it wasn't, companies would mostly choose to adopt EU standards for ease and convenience. And anything imported to the UK from the EU would be of a common EU standard, so our consumers would continue to be used to products meeting EU standards.
For selling into Europe we will need to comply with EU regulations.
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
I'm pretty sure I buy a 4 pint bottle of milk and a quarter pounder burger already.
Though the metric system is far superior.
Technically you buy a 2.27 litre bottle of milk...
Norway implements less than 10% of the EU's regulations (it isn't even compelled to do that much) and chooses for itself on everything else. So how is that resigning sovereignty?
If it wants to sell anything in the EU, the products have to comply with EU regs they can't write.
We sell quite a lot of stuff to the EU...
If we want to sell anything to the USA, the products have to comply with USA regs we can't write.
I run a small business that does no international trade. Yet I need to observe a whole swathe of European regulations that have nothing to do with trade. If we were in the EEA we could decide on those laws ourselves.
But WOULD we adopt our own measures? Your small business might only trade domestically, but thousands of others will trade with the EU. The demand for UK law to coincide with EU standards would be deafening. And even if it wasn't, companies would mostly choose to adopt EU standards for ease and convenience. And anything imported to the UK from the EU would be of a common EU standard, so our consumers would continue to be used to products meeting EU standards.
For selling into Europe we will need to comply with EU regulations.
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
I'm pretty sure I buy a 4 pint bottle of milk and a quarter pounder burger already.
Though the metric system is far superior.
Technically you buy a 2.27 litre bottle of milk...
He's wrong- Malcolm told us Swinney would never settle!
usual Tory lies. I said not on the terms that were on offer, as predicted these have been altered to SNP position.
@FaisalIslam: Scottish Govt NOT got preferred method of adjusting block grant (per capita indexation), but claim to have "beaten HMT" as no cuts for 5 yrs
Well, they would say that, wouldn't they.....
That's pretty limp by the SNP. I wonder what their internal polling is saying.
It will be saying they got what they said they would No Detriment now or in the future.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
The MP for Boston & Skegness is apparently supporting Remain, as is Roger Gale in Thanet. Both areas will probably be big wins for Leave.
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
Yes: what it says in the agreement.
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Didn't realise you were Odiham - I have cousins (the Sharps and the Hudsons) living there. Other cousins and in Dogmersfield, but I'm a foreigner as I grew up in Wootton St. Lawrence.
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
Yes: what it says in the agreement.
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
We lose.
No, I meant something much more authoritative. We can both read the agreement, and you've ignored the rest of it, most notably the strengthened protection against discrimination. My interpretation is the diametric opposite of yours (and accords with that of, for example, Open Europe), but neither of us are specialist lawyers.
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
Yes: what it says in the agreement.
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
We lose.
No, I meant something much more authoritative. We can both read the agreement, and you've ignored the rest of it, most notably the strengthened protection against discrimination. My interpretation is the diametric opposite of yours (and accords with that of, for example, Open Europe), but neither of us are specialist lawyers.
yet when we have a specialist lawyer in the area @Cyclefree you ignore her comments anyway.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
Yes: what it says in the agreement.
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
We lose.
They always could propose a regulation in the interest of financial stability. That isn't why we won and they lost last time.
Bad negotiation, yes I get it, with 28 members it's almost certain everyone will be disappointed.
But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.
We wouldn't have no influence. For those regulations that are negotiated at an international level we would have far more influence than we do now. For those regulations that are formulated and negotiated at an EU level concerning the single market - the only ones where the EEA agreement would apply - we would still have full participation in the instigation and formulation.
We've been over this EEA members get no say on EU legislation they do get to sit on committees, usually concerning research or technology projects, of projects they have contributed to financially.
Not the same as input into primary rule making - haven't the time to re-find the EEA link.
yet when we have a specialist lawyer in the area @Cyclefree you ignore her comments anyway.
No, I don't, I listen to her very carefully, as I do to others I respect, all of whom seem to be saying the opposite. However, she's not a specialist lawyer in this area AFAIK.
In any case, has she said that we'd lose the case Charles mentioned? That seems a quite extraordinary claim, and I don't think she has made it.
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
Yes: what it says in the agreement.
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
We lose.
They always could propose a regulation in the interest of financial stability. That isn't why we won and they lost last time.
Precisely. I've no idea why Charles thinks that has changed.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
Dover has got to be a runner
Kent and Sussex were rather more pro-Common Market than average in the 75 Referendum.
yet when we have a specialist lawyer in the area @Cyclefree you ignore her comments anyway.
No, I don't, I listen to her very carefully, as I do to others I respect, all of whom seem to be saying the opposite. However, she's not a specialist lawyer in this area AFAIK.
In any case, has she said that we'd lose the case Charles mentioned? That seems a quite extraordinary claim, and I don't think she has made it.
Laughable.
One suspects that Cyclefree's probably the most authoritative commentator here on that subject.
yet when we have a specialist lawyer in the area @Cyclefree you ignore her comments anyway.
No, I don't, I listen to her very carefully, as I do to others I respect, all of whom seem to be saying the opposite. However, she's not a specialist lawyer in this area AFAIK.
In any case, has she said that we'd lose the case Charles mentioned? That seems a quite extraordinary claim, and I don't think she has made it.
Laughable.
One suspects that Cyclefree's probably the most authoritative commentator here on that subject.
She probably is.
If Charles is right, there must be some lawyerly paper out there he could point me to. I've searched, and haven't found anything.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
Dover has got to be a runner
Kent and Sussex were rather more pro-Common Market than average in the 75 Referendum.
Rubio gains no boost from Bush dropping out, instead they split to Trump and Kasich, Cruz takes a small hit but his votes go to the other evangelical, not Rubio.
Norway implements less than 10% of the EU's regulations (it isn't even compelled to do that much) and chooses for itself on everything else. So how is that resigning sovereignty?
If it wants to sell anything in the EU, the products have to comply with EU regs they can't write.
We sell quite a lot of stuff to the EU...
If we want to sell anything to the USA, the products have to comply with USA regs we can't write.
I run a small business that does no international trade. Yet I need to observe a whole swathe of European regulations that have nothing to do with trade. If we were in the EEA we could decide on those laws ourselves.
But WOULD we adopt our own measures? Your small business might only trade domestically, but thousands of others will trade with the EU. The demand for UK law to coincide with EU standards would be deafening. And even if it wasn't, companies would mostly choose to adopt EU standards for ease and convenience. And anything imported to the UK from the EU would be of a common EU standard, so our consumers would continue to be used to products meeting EU standards.
For selling into Europe we will need to comply with EU regulations.
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
I'm pretty sure I buy a 4 pint bottle of milk and a quarter pounder burger already.
Though the metric system is far superior.
Technically you buy a 2.27 litre bottle of milk...
Exactly.
you buy a bottle of milk that fits in the fridge door
Bad negotiation, yes I get it, with 28 members it's almost certain everyone will be disappointed.
But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.
We wouldn't have no influence. For those regulations that are negotiated at an international level we would have far more influence than we do now. For those regulations that are formulated and negotiated at an EU level concerning the single market - the only ones where the EEA agreement would apply - we would still have full participation in the instigation and formulation.
We've been over this EEA members get no say on EU legislation they do get to sit on committees, usually concerning research or technology projects, of projects they have contributed to financially.
Not the same as input into primary rule making - haven't the time to re-find the EEA link.
Not so. According to the Norwegian government website the EFTA members have participation in all aspects of the drafting of Single Market legislation. I have posted the link.often enough.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
Dover has got to be a runner
Kent and Sussex were rather more pro-Common Market than average in the 75 Referendum.
We're there thousands of African migrants trying to stow across the channel from Calais back then?
yet when we have a specialist lawyer in the area @Cyclefree you ignore her comments anyway.
No, I don't, I listen to her very carefully, as I do to others I respect. However, she's not a specialist lawyer in this area AFAIK.
In any case, has she said that we'd lose the case Charles mentioned? That seems a quite extraordinary claim, and I don't think she has made it.
Yeah Richard whatever, you've had a tough last 2 days.
Tough? Are you kidding? Have you seen what has happened to sterling?
Of course, it does mean I've got to make some tough decisions, such as which vintage of Krug to go for.
Sterling movements are not the end of the world. Boosts exports and hurts imports while ultimately helping savers and defeating the risk of deflation that has been hanging over our heads. Pretty much a win/win/win/win.
Had we been suffering from inflation presently then it may be different.
Sterling movements are not the end of the world. Boosts exports and hurts imports while ultimately helping savers and defeating the risk of deflation that has been hanging over our heads. Pretty much a win/win/win/win.
Had we been suffering from inflation presently then it may be different.
Of course, but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy. The Leavers airily dismiss this, and accuse those who point it out of lying/Europhilia etc, but it's a real concern.
Mr. Nabavi, I think most would accept leaving the EU would involve short-term turbulence and, likely, economic pain.
But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.
BTW the proposed LSE/Deutsche Borse merger is probably more relevant to the UK's position as a financial centre than the referendum (which I think will result in a Remain vote).
Mind you, for reasons that I'm sure @Charles will understand, I very much hope that DB's current Chief Executive does not take a prominent position in any merged entity.
Agreed!
I'm always suspicious of Goldman Sachs alumni, although I suspect you have a clearer view on Carsten's weaknesses* than I do!
Have they said where the primary listing would be? I'd very much hope it will be in London...!
* And strengths, of course. Must be fair.
Macavity the cat comes to mind when thinking of this particular gentleman.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Didn't realise you were Odiham - I have cousins (the Sharps and the Hudsons) living there. Other cousins and in Dogmersfield, but I'm a foreigner as I grew up in Wootton St. Lawrence.
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
Yes: what it says in the agreement.
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
We lose.
No, I meant something much more authoritative. We can both read the agreement, and you've ignored the rest of it, most notably the strengthened protection against discrimination. My interpretation is the diametric opposite of yours (and accords with that of, for example, Open Europe), but neither of us are specialist lawyers.
Just about the last big WTA state, but in the final furlong anyhow...
Seems Trump on his way to win everything but Texas at this point.
Although I have found some areas where Rubio might win:
Puerto Rico Wyoming Guam Mariana Trench Utah D.C.
Though of course winning those areas are not exactly promising with delegates and probably offer scopes of ridicule "Rubio won the Guam caucus, wooo" .
Mr. Nabavi, I think most would accept leaving the EU would involve short-term turbulence and, likely, economic pain.
But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.
Be bloody exciting though! A good time to be involved....
And you are ignoring my point: we wouldn't win that lawsuit under Cameron's new deal..
You keep saying this.
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
Yes: what it says in the agreement.
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
We lose.
They always could propose a regulation in the interest of financial stability. That isn't why we won and they lost last time.
Precisely. I've no idea why Charles thinks that has changed.
Because we have agreed to abide by the rules for the eurozone. Not possible to sue as there is a single rulebook approved by QMV.
Just about the last big WTA state, but in the final furlong anyhow...
Seems Trump on his way to win everything but Texas at this point.
Although I have found some areas where Rubio might win:
Puerto Rico Wyoming Guam Mariana Trench Utah D.C.
Though of course winning those areas are not exactly promising with delegates and probably offer scopes of ridicule "Rubio won the Guam caucus, wooo" .
I'd have thought Ted Cruz would be more popular in Wyoming.
Sterling movements are not the end of the world. Boosts exports and hurts imports while ultimately helping savers and defeating the risk of deflation that has been hanging over our heads. Pretty much a win/win/win/win.
Had we been suffering from inflation presently then it may be different.
Of course, but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy. The Leavers airily dismiss this, and accuse those who point it out of lying/Europhilia etc, but it's a real concern.
Sterling movements are not the end of the world. Boosts exports and hurts imports while ultimately helping savers and defeating the risk of deflation that has been hanging over our heads. Pretty much a win/win/win/win.
Had we been suffering from inflation presently then it may be different.
Of course, but the fall in sterling is a symptom of serious market concern about what Brexit would do to the UK economy. The Leavers airily dismiss this, and accuse those who point it out of lying/Europhilia etc, but it's a real concern.
So what you're saying is Dave's deal is so duff the markets don't think it will carry ?
Norway implements less than 10% of the EU's regulations (it isn't even compelled to do that much) and chooses for itself on everything else. So how is that resigning sovereignty?
If it wants to sell anything in the EU, the products have to comply with EU regs they can't write.
We sell quite a lot of stuff to the EU...
If we want to sell anything to the USA, the products have to comply with USA regs we can't write.
I run a small business that does no international trade. Yet I need to observe a whole swathe of European regulations that have nothing to do with trade. If we were in the EEA we could decide on those laws ourselves.
But WOULD we adopt our own measures? Your small business might only trade domestically, but thousands of others will trade with the EU. The demand for UK law to coincide with EU standards would be deafening. And even if it wasn't, companies would mostly choose to adopt EU standards for ease and convenience. And anything imported to the UK from the EU would be of a common EU standard, so our consumers would continue to be used to products meeting EU standards.
For selling into Europe we will need to comply with EU regulations.
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
More important for selling to say Japan would would not have to follow EU regulations AND Japanese regulations, which makes us more competitive with non-EU countries who can produce items to JUST Japanese regulations and save themselves one set of compliance costs.
What a delusional world you live in. Negotiations are ongoing between the EU and Japan for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. The first round of talks was held in April 2013. When this is finally completed are you seriously suggesting that Japan will negotiate something different with an independent UK, always assuming that it wanted to? Of course if we were in the EEA then we would fall into this deal naturally, but have had no say in it. Japan is as large a market as they come and the other the USA is also negotiating with the EU. The USA has already said it does not want to negotiate with an 'independent', non EU, UK.
Just about the last big WTA state, but in the final furlong anyhow...
Seems Trump on his way to win everything but Texas at this point.
Although I have found some areas where Rubio might win:
Puerto Rico Wyoming Guam Mariana Trench Utah D.C.
Though of course winning those areas are not exactly promising with delegates and probably offer scopes of ridicule "Rubio won the Guam caucus, wooo" .
"Not exactly promising"
Understatement of the year so far, lol. Not even sure where Mariana Trench is.
Mr. Nabavi, I think most would accept leaving the EU would involve short-term turbulence and, likely, economic pain.
But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.
Be bloody exciting though! A good time to be involved....
Fun for the affluent for whom this is a game. Less so for the poor who would suffer from the turbulence.
BTW the proposed LSE/Deutsche Borse merger is probably more relevant to the UK's position as a financial centre than the referendum (which I think will result in a Remain vote).
Mind you, for reasons that I'm sure @Charles will understand, I very much hope that DB's current Chief Executive does not take a prominent position in any merged entity.
Agreed!
I'm always suspicious of Goldman Sachs alumni, although I suspect you have a clearer view on Carsten's weaknesses* than I do!
Have they said where the primary listing would be? I'd very much hope it will be in London...!
* And strengths, of course. Must be fair.
Macavity the cat comes to mind when thinking of this particular gentleman.
What a delusional world you live in. Negotiations are ongoing between the EU and Japan for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. The first round of talks was held in April 2013. When this is finally completed are you seriously suggesting that Japan will negotiate something different with an independent UK, always assuming that it wanted to? Of course if we were in the EEA then we would fall into this deal naturally, but have had no say in it. Japan is as large a market as they come and the other the USA is also negotiating with the EU. The USA has already said it does not want to negotiate with an 'independent', non EU, UK.
Your notions are to bonkers.
To believe that the US will not do a deal with an independent UK is ludicrous.
They have *said* that they won't because they want the UK to remain in the EU.
But if the UK came out they would change their mind sharpish.
The one certainty in this world is that the USA ruthlessly pursues their own interests and take no prisoners in the process
BTW the proposed LSE/Deutsche Borse merger is probably more relevant to the UK's position as a financial centre than the referendum (which I think will result in a Remain vote).
Mind you, for reasons that I'm sure @Charles will understand, I very much hope that DB's current Chief Executive does not take a prominent position in any merged entity.
Agreed!
I'm always suspicious of Goldman Sachs alumni, although I suspect you have a clearer view on Carsten's weaknesses* than I do!
Have they said where the primary listing would be? I'd very much hope it will be in London...!
BTW the proposed LSE/Deutsche Borse merger is probably more relevant to the UK's position as a financial centre than the referendum (which I think will result in a Remain vote).
Mind you, for reasons that I'm sure @Charles will understand, I very much hope that DB's current Chief Executive does not take a prominent position in any merged entity.
Agreed!
I'm always suspicious of Goldman Sachs alumni, although I suspect you have a clearer view on Carsten's weaknesses* than I do!
Have they said where the primary listing would be? I'd very much hope it will be in London...!
* And strengths, of course. Must be fair.
Macavity the cat comes to mind when thinking of this particular gentleman.
I was going to go with Mr Mistoffelees.
Isn't Mista-Flees the pussy friend of Macavity, the Scottish dentist?
As with all these complicated inter-governmental negotiations, neither side came away with everything it wanted: both had to compromise. The Scottish Government had to give up on its preferred model to work out Scotland’s future funding – something it insisted it would never do. The UK Government had to agree to a short-term fudge which will cost it hundreds of millions of pounds, just to keep the Scottish Government sweet. http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/who-won-in-the-fiscal-framework-battle/
Just about the last big WTA state, but in the final furlong anyhow...
Seems Trump on his way to win everything but Texas at this point.
Although I have found some areas where Rubio might win:
Puerto Rico Wyoming Guam Mariana Trench Utah D.C.
Though of course winning those areas are not exactly promising with delegates and probably offer scopes of ridicule "Rubio won the Guam caucus, wooo" .
"Not exactly promising"
Understatement of the year so far, lol. Not even sure where Mariana Trench is.
YEESS! I lobbied my local MP, Ranil Jayawardena on his position last night wrt to the EU referendum.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
NE Hampshire — one of the nicest parts of the country. I think I've been there when visiting Jane Austen's house.
I live in Odiham, and grew up in Alton. Lovely place. MalcolmG knows it well.
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Hart could be a tough area for Leave to win due to it being so affluent.
That's why it's worth Leave fighting hard here. Ranil will be a big help in that.
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
What are people's thoughts as to which constituency is likely to be most strongly divergent from their own MP's opinion? Am thinking Vauxhall's got to be a good shout - struggle to see Leave doing that well here despite Kate Hoey? Lambeth was one of the few places to vote 'Yes' to AV if that's a guide.
Dover has got to be a runner
Kent and Sussex were rather more pro-Common Market than average in the 75 Referendum.
We're there thousands of African migrants trying to stow across the channel from Calais back then?
I don't think so; but how would leaving the EU help the Calais Jungle situation?
Mr. Nabavi, I think most would accept leaving the EU would involve short-term turbulence and, likely, economic pain.
But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.
Be bloody exciting though! A good time to be involved....
Fun for the affluent for whom this is a game. Less so for the poor who would suffer from the turbulence.
That sounds exactly like the relative effects the mass immigration of the last decade has had.
Comments
But outside the EU, we can clear whatever trades we like.
France Poll, Ifop:
Juppé (R-EPP): 30%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 27% ↑
Hollande (PS-S&D): 16% ↓
Mélenchon (FG-LEFT): 10% ↑
Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE): 9% ↑
Jim O'Neill, former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has said that Brits should vote "Leave" | IB Times https://t.co/sULgcv3fu8
I think different people will have different reasons for voting Leave, and I try and respect that.
Ultimately, this is about this country regaining sovereignty so we can meaningfully have precisely those debates, and decide what it is we really want, and change our minds if it isn't.
All of that is moot, unless we actually Leave.
One suspects the plan, linked to by Mr. Indigo just below, of the EU to suspend passport checks at the edges of Schengen when it's busy will not necessarily deter the hordes of migrants.
http://order-order.com/2016/02/23/more-tory-mps-declare-for-in/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Cameron's EU negotiations were as nothing compared to the those Chez JackW relating to my return to PB ....
I was finally given exceptionally LEAVE to REMAIN on site .... but the reckoning .... OUCH !! ..
As the safest Tory seat in the country this might be the only time it ever becomes 'marginal' in a political debate!
Presumably you have some evidence to back up this very odd claim, which flies in the face both of the text and all the informed opinion I've seen on the subject. Care to share it with us?
The Norway Option - Re-joining the EEA as an alternative to membership of the European Union - Richard North
http://www.brugesgroup.com/images/media_centre/papers/TheNorwayOption.pdf
The Norwegian Way: A case study for Britain’s future relationship with the EU - Jonathan Lindsell
http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/TheNorwegianWay.pdf
@ProfTomkins: So the #fiscalframework deal is based on @RuthDavidsonMSP's critical intervention.
Mrs JackW will surely be delighted at a free trade area encompassing London, Milan and Paris, in which to spend the winnings...
The Eurozone proposes a regulation in the interest of financial stability.
We protest.
They try to reach a consensus and then vote on a QMV basis.
We lose.
Not the same as input into primary rule making - haven't the time to re-find the EEA link.
In any case, has she said that we'd lose the case Charles mentioned? That seems a quite extraordinary claim, and I don't think she has made it.
Of course, it does mean I've got to make some tough decisions, such as which vintage of Krug to go for.
One suspects that Cyclefree's probably the most authoritative commentator here on that subject.
If Charles is right, there must be some lawyerly paper out there he could point me to. I've searched, and haven't found anything.
Trump 36 +5
Rubio 21 0
Cruz 17 -3
Kasich 12 +6
Carson 8 +3
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_s_lead_grows_with_jeb_out_of_the_race
Rubio gains no boost from Bush dropping out, instead they split to Trump and Kasich, Cruz takes a small hit but his votes go to the other evangelical, not Rubio.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/mbqf-r-23844
T35 R23 C14
Just about the last big WTA state, but in the final furlong anyhow...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938
Had we been suffering from inflation presently then it may be different.
But the world won't end in two years. We should make a decision based on the long-term interests of the UK. In the long-term, self-governance is better than perpetual erosion of our sovereignty. We're at risk of becoming as Constantinople was to the rival powers of Genoa and Venice.
Although I have found some areas where Rubio might win:
Puerto Rico
Wyoming
Guam
Mariana Trench
Utah
D.C.
Though of course winning those areas are not exactly promising with delegates and probably offer scopes of ridicule "Rubio won the Guam caucus, wooo" .
I thought Cruz would have been doing better there....
Several casualties reported after blast"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-oxfordshire-35543274
Negotiations are ongoing between the EU and Japan for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. The first round of talks was held in April 2013.
When this is finally completed are you seriously suggesting that Japan will negotiate something different with an independent UK, always assuming that it wanted to?
Of course if we were in the EEA then we would fall into this deal naturally, but have had no say in it.
Japan is as large a market as they come and the other the USA is also negotiating with the EU. The USA has already said it does not want to negotiate with an 'independent', non EU, UK.
Your notions are to bonkers.
Understatement of the year so far, lol. Not even sure where Mariana Trench is.
But who is Bustopher Jones?
Europe minister Lidington admits parents from Luxembourg will get higher payouts under the benefit indexation scheme
They have *said* that they won't because they want the UK to remain in the EU.
But if the UK came out they would change their mind sharpish.
The one certainty in this world is that the USA ruthlessly pursues their own interests and take no prisoners in the process
As with all these complicated inter-governmental negotiations, neither side came away with everything it wanted: both had to compromise. The Scottish Government had to give up on its preferred model to work out Scotland’s future funding – something it insisted it would never do. The UK Government had to agree to a short-term fudge which will cost it hundreds of millions of pounds, just to keep the Scottish Government sweet.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/who-won-in-the-fiscal-framework-battle/
The Zoomers will be all over that one...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Mariana_Islands_Republican_caucuses,_2012
Romney got 87% or 740 votes in 2012.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-oxfordshire-35543274
Bigger cross channel trade links now too.
Amazing it lasted so long.
The Zoomers will be all over that one...
You are certainly in the vanguard
There are more anti Rubio and anti Cruz voters, it is why Trump leads.