It doesn't seem that anyone is paying too much attention to the opinion polls.
Overnight Remain tightened from 1.53/1.54 to 1.46/1.47. Gamblers were presumably impressed by the Prime Minister yesterday, though for the life of me I can't see why one good day in Parliament makes much difference.
They are not really gambling,they're trading,expecting the price to shorten.This is quite a reasonable assumption as the status quo factors kick in,markets get more and more jittery and Project Fear becomes the new reality and a fall to 1.33 is not impossible-the trend is the status quo always wins and the status quo vote comes out late and without noise,as conservative Britain tends to do anyway.Cameron has the power to knock Johnson off the final 2 in the ballot.He has to destroy him to save his own skin,his legacy as a PM. I'm sticking with 57-62% Remain.
Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
In which you are aligned with Atul Hatwal.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
A very complacent article. Neither telephone nor online polls have proved obviously more reliable than the other.
I agree on that point - no reason to assume one or the other is correct. But either way I expect sentiment to move towards Remain during the campaign (having moved towards Leave during the negotiations).
I think it will move too, but not massively.
I think we'd be talking a 3-4% swing rather than a 10% swing as feeling on this is so visceral.
But, what the hell do I know? No-one really knows what's going to happen.
I don't really think it is that visceral, but people are very interested. I had unprompted discussions about it at a party on the weekend (admittedly initiated by people who know I'm into politics) and likewise I have heard/overheard plenty of office conversations - the general temperature of both being "very soft Leave" - i.e. people who may well be swung by FUD.
I think MalcolmG put it well yesterday when he said we'll vote Remain out of fear of losing a fiver.
If we do, we will get the relationship with the EU we deserve.
Pollsters get alarmingly high numbers of public sector workers. I assume they're at home or free time to answer. Given their demographic is only 17% of the workforce, either this is really weird or misidentifying.
Maybe, but then again younger people are more confident users of technology and tend to skew towards Remain. One can spin these stories either way.
But younger people are likely to be predominantly mobile phone users, so they will be screening calls by default.
So who exactly are phone pollsters still reaching? Younger people who don't have mobile phones, and pensioners who blithely answer every landline call? Those must be two rapidly shrinking groups of the population.
You expect them to be working long hours? They often have much higher than average rates of sickness and enjoy longer than average paid holidays.
Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
In which you are aligned with Atul Hatwal.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
A very complacent article. Neither telephone nor online polls have proved obviously more reliable than the other.
I agree on that point - no reason to assume one or the other is correct. But either way I expect sentiment to move towards Remain during the campaign (having moved towards Leave during the negotiations).
I think it will move too, but not massively.
I think we'd be talking a 3-4% swing rather than a 10% swing as feeling on this is so visceral.
But, what the hell do I know? No-one really knows what's going to happen.
I don't really think it is that visceral, but people are very interested. I had unprompted discussions about it at a party on the weekend (admittedly initiated by people who know I'm into politics) and likewise I have heard/overheard plenty of office conversations - the general temperature of both being "very soft Leave" - i.e. people who may well be swung by FUD.
Very soft Leave may be the starting for most of the population.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
I now think the EU referendum will not be fatal to the Tory party nor cause a huge split or a sizeable defection to UKIP. Events of recent days have proved decisive in that IMHO.
However, it might well be fatal to Cameron, even if he wins.
Quentin Letts summed it up well.
'Tory leader in name alone – not now in spirit, nor possibly ever again – Mr Cameron came to the House to tell MPs about his European negotiation.
He entered the House shortly before 3.30pm. A few of his trusties expressed vocal acclaim at the sight of him. Many more sat in silence.'
Although having pretty much decided to vote LEAVE, I have to say that I was hugely impressed by David Cameron's terrific performance in the House of Commons yesterday ..... a real tour de force to be sure. Answering dozens of very varied questions from all shades of political opinion he was totally in command of all the facts and figures. It is difficult to think of any leader in modern times who has delivered such an impressive performance. If and when he resigns as Prime Minister he will be a great loss to the HoC it has to be said, irrespective of one's personal political persuasion.
Agreed. I will miss him too - he has been the first Tory PM that I voted for, and I couldn't have been more pleased until now. One can only wish he had put his talents and efforts more into securing EU reform, or perhaps deciding that of that was impossible, he should advocate leave, rather than trying to fool his party and he country that this deal is any better than the status quo, when the reality is that it is quite possibly worse.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
1) If fewer young British people want to get low paid jobs in catering because they've got better opportunities elsewhere, that's a good thing not a bad thing. 2) On supply and demand, if wages need to rise to attract curry chefs, so be it. 3) If that means that the price of a curry is going to rise, again, so be it. 4) Employment rates among Bengali women are still very low. Might that be a place to start looking?
I find it interesting that so many of the Ministers in the Justice Department have come out for Leave. When you are dealing with the actual nitty gritty of laws perhaps you are inclined to take a less rosy-eyed view? Who knows?
The biggest red flag for me on the Iraq war was when Hurd, Hogg and Howell - the 3 foreign ministers still active in politics - all came out against it.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
You might be rather more miffed if they had told the selection committee they were more eurosceptic than Farage, and been banging on about voting leave for months and then when push comes to shove rowed in behind Remain.
People respect integrity, even in their opponents, but mostly hate being taken for a ride.
Personally I think turnout is key for the Presidentials. Romney lost due to the pathetic share of the white vote he picked up, due both to his failure to address the national question on immigration and affirmative action, as well as his plutocratic background restructuring Rust Belt industrials. Now these whites didn't vote for Obama instead, they just simply didn't vote. Trump is showing he has the policies and persona to get these blue collar workers to the polls.
Secondly Obama got blacks to vote as even more of a block than usual, and in huge numbers. I don't see HRC repeating this trick, for obvious reasons. Not only do I expect the black vote to fall, but I expect Trump to pick up more of a Reaganesque 15% or better, much better than the usual GOP 5% average with blacks when they choose their usual policies of pandering.
As for Hispanics they remain a small fraction of the vote, with most not bothering to vote, and when they do concentrated in a state like California where they are meaningless. Trump could afford to take a minor hit there.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
You might be rather more miffed if they had told the selection committee they were more eurosceptic than Farage, and been banging on about voting leave for months and then when push comes to shove rowed in behind Remain.
People respect integrity, even in their opponents, but mostly hate being taken for a ride.
I heard Mak was already in trouble with his local party.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
Tom Newton Dunn Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Oh Lord.
So those who have had to deal with the EU have become more pro-EU. One person who hasn't had any dealings with them is more anti-EU. Doesn't seem much of a story
There's dealing with them in terms of international diplomacy (PM, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary) that may well lead to becoming more favourable as a fellow member of a club.
Then again you have an ex-Chancellor and would in all probability have an ex-PM, if she were alive today, saying the opposite.
You also having serving ministers who are familiar with the impact of EU law in social, welfare, employment, justice and education policy who are all convinced of the case to Leave.
Sounds like ministers developing a touch of Stockholm syndrome.
I think I've come to the opinion that I would back Leave on two conditions:
1: That EFTA/EEA is a plausible alternative. 2: That Grassroots Out etc are not the official Leave campaign (linked to 1)
As a lifelong Remainer this is quite a break and feels like a shock. But the EZ performance for the last decade is corpse like and some quite convincing arguments that we could be more dynamic in the Single Market but out of the EU.
chestnut thanks for that polling data. I make it that more than half the voters who will bother to vote are circa 60/40 voting out whereas those less likely to vote are 70/30 in favour of Remain. Not good for the Remainers, they have the young and those with an aversion to voting.
Keep an eye on Dem vs GOP turnout. Trump being ahead of Hilary in raw votes in New Hampshire could be a straw in the wind. Dem turnout in SC will be interesting.
Yes. Two words of caution though. NH was an open primary where the GOP race was tighter and more interesting than the Dem one. It's possible and I think likely that independents will have tended towards the Republican primary to maximise their impact (which may also help explain the scale of Sanders' win).
Re SC, it is a Red state so there should be a higher turnout for the GOP by about 20%, all else being equal.
Trump's advantage is that he does pretty much as well with every single demographic in the GOP electorate. Were he running second or third, that'd be a pretty major disadvantage but he's not; he's 15-20 points clear nationally. With such consistent backing, he'll perform strongly everywhere; his SC result shows what that can achieve.
I don't honestly think the delegate totals are all that important at the moment - there's less than 5% of the pledged delegates decided so far - but that all changes come March (I will be doing a thread on this). Fully two-thirds of pledged GOP delegates will have been decided upon by March 22 (subject to state conventions and the like). Unless one of the other candidates can break through to challenge Trump then he'll ride to a very comfortable victory. At the moment, I don't see that happening.
@Tissue_Price Do you see HRC heading into the 1.7-1.8 range for POTUS come Super Tuesday with Bernie out in the hundreds ?
Yes. Bernie is dead soon; his only chance is the Feds. David Herdson had a very good post at the weekend detailing how the timing of any FBI involvement would affect the nominee. Get on Biden at 120.0.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Unemployment among Pakistani born people is around 25%, for Indian born it is around 8%. There is also a much lower activity rate among Pakistani born people as well.
I think I've come to the opinion that I would back Leave on two conditions:
1: That EFTA/EEA is a plausible alternative. 2: That Grassroots Out etc are not the official Leave campaign (linked to 1)
As a lifelong Remainer this is quite a break and feels like a shock. But the EZ performance for the last decade is corpse like and some quite convincing arguments that we could be more dynamic in the Single Market but out of the EU.
I wouldn't be too unhappy if EEA membership were the outcome. It's not something we can vote for though. Of course, we can't vote for the status quo either.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose).
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf
But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?").
Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
Atul is 1/2 on bold calls - he had Cameron winning a majority and Corbyn finishing 4th.
He also consistently said SLab would outperform the GE polls - '(SNP) boosting their representation by taking 6-10 Labour seats and reducing the majorities for most of Labour’s Scottish MPs', so more like 1/3.
Rochford and Southend East MP James Duddridge will vote for the UK to Leave the EU.
Southend West MP Sir David Amess will vote for the UK to Leave the EU.
Further to what I said earlier, and given this drip drip of Tory Mps drifting to Leave - could you imagine how the Tory party would be against Cameron if he hadn't been at the top of his game yesterday. I think he'd be facing calls for immediate resignation.....
@Tissue_Price Do you see HRC heading into the 1.7-1.8 range for POTUS come Super Tuesday with Bernie out in the hundreds ?
Yes. Bernie is dead soon; his only chance is the Feds. David Herdson had a very good post at the weekend detailing how the timing of any FBI involvement would affect the nominee. Get on Biden at 120.0.
There was a piece somebody linked last night arguing that he still had a legitimate chance as the national polls are moving his way and the Democratic primaries are proportional, so the contest may not be over fast. My thinking is that the polls will swing back to Hillary as she acquires the aura of victory in SC and Super Tuesday and that Bernie has next to no chance.
Although having pretty much decided to vote LEAVE, I have to say that I was hugely impressed by David Cameron's terrific performance in the House of Commons yesterday ..... a real tour de force to be sure. Answering dozens of very varied questions from all shades of political opinion he was totally in command of all the facts and figures. It is difficult to think of any leader in modern times who has delivered such an impressive performance. If and when he resigns as Prime Minister he will be a great loss to the HoC it has to be said, irrespective of one's personal political persuasion.
LOL! He's the Ted Heath of modern British politics. Though actually he's worse than Heath because at least Ted was honest about this EUPhillia unlike slimy Cameron.
Dave is just an opportunist and a liar (I see today he has been lying that he was actually a eurosceptic when he was LOTO but in office he's "come to his senses" LOL) I should imagine the vast majority of the Conservative Party are wondering whatever they've done having this clown as their leader - They should have just given Ken Clarke the leadership years ago... At least he'd have won the Tories a good majority against Brown in 2010.
Rochford and Southend East MP James Duddridge will vote for the UK to Leave the EU.
Southend West MP Sir David Amess will vote for the UK to Leave the EU.
Further to what I said earlier, and given this drip drip of Tory Mps drifting to Leave - could you imagine how the Tory party would be against Cameron if he hadn't been at the top of his game yesterday. I think he'd be facing calls for immediate resignation.....
I don't honestly think the delegate totals are all that important at the moment - there's less than 5% of the pledged delegates decided so far - but that all changes come March (I will be doing a thread on this). Fully two-thirds of pledged GOP delegates will have been decided upon by March 22 (subject to state conventions and the like). Unless one of the other candidates can break through to challenge Trump then he'll ride to a very comfortable victory. At the moment, I don't see that happening.
Exactly right. Even if Trump would be beatable in a one-on-one contest by Rubio, we don't have a one-on-one contest, and it looks as though we won't have one in time to stop Trump. Ted Cruz is not going to withdraw in order to help Rubio, given that he is doing better than Rubio. Even if he wasn't, he's hardly a friend of the GOP establishment.
Disclaimer: Give than I've got a big red on Rubio, I hope I'm not talking my book.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
I don't hold it against them. But, I get annoyed at people who say one thing to a selection committee, and then do another.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose).
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf
But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?").
Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
The ONS statistics on employment by country of birth and nationality paint a vastly different picture. The subsection of "Asian" includes all of SE and East Asia. Indians also have an employment rate comparable with the general population compared to around 55% for people born in Pakistan or Pakistani citizens living in the UK. Among that vast number of unemployed people, there will be those who have the necessary aptitude to work in a curry house, we just need to make sure the benefits system doesn't incentivise people to stay home rather than go out and get a job.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
I don't hold it against them. But, I get annoyed at people who say one thing to a selection committee, and then do another.
How can anyone be "persuaded" by this deal?
Anyone who has gone from Out to In on the back of the negotiation has no credibility whatsoever.
1 seems Remain. Admires Cameron as a leader. 1 seems Leave. Quite admires Cameron but is worried the emergency brake could be struck down by the courts
Both in their 50s (I guess). Think Merkel is "fabulous". Wary of Muslims. Can't remember when the Berlin Wall fell (seriously, how is that possible?)
Yes. Bernie is dead soon; his only chance is the Feds. David Herdson had a very good post at the weekend detailing how the timing of any FBI involvement would affect the nominee. Get on Biden at 120.0.
Thanks for highlighting that post by David. I hadn't seen it, and you are right, it is excellent.
I think I've come to the opinion that I would back Leave on two conditions:
1: That EFTA/EEA is a plausible alternative. 2: That Grassroots Out etc are not the official Leave campaign (linked to 1)
As a lifelong Remainer this is quite a break and feels like a shock. But the EZ performance for the last decade is corpse like and some quite convincing arguments that we could be more dynamic in the Single Market but out of the EU.
Welcome aboard. That's pretty much where I am (including the shock!)
I think EFTA/EEA has to be a question of belief - it would be rational for the EU to offer it, and rational for us to accept it. But @Richard_Nabavi will ask you to prove it, which can't be done.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose).
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf
But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?").
Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
The ONS statistics on employment by country of birth and nationality paint a vastly different picture. The subsection of "Asian" includes all of SE and East Asia. Indians also have an employment rate comparable with the general population compared to around 55% for people born in Pakistan or Pakistani citizens living in the UK. Among that vast number of unemployed people, there will be those who have the necessary aptitude to work in a curry house, we just need to make sure the benefits system doesn't incentivise people to stay home rather than go out and get a job.
If I remember correctly from C4 analysis, those of Bangladeshi descent have even worse rates when it comes to education and employment. Indian and Chinese are the best "achievers" when it comes to those of immigrant descent.
The Curry house owners association always keep claiming they need more immigrant chefs, but never seem to have a good answer why they can't train UK nations (like most other businesses). Given the high rates of unemployment, poor formal qualifications, it would seem there like there is a really good untapped labour market for them right here in the UK.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose). www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?"). Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
I don't hold it against them. But, I get annoyed at people who say one thing to a selection committee, and then do another.
How can anyone be "persuaded" by this deal?
Anyone who has gone from Out to In on the back of the negotiation has no credibility whatsoever.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose).
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf
But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?").
Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
I don't think they want to pay expert chefs' wages. The business model is based on family members working for very little. And, the average curry house doesn't require much expertise. Even I could make a curry.
1 seems Remain. Admires Cameron as a leader. 1 seems Leave. Quite admires Cameron but is worried the emergency brake could be struck down by the courts
Both in their 50s (I guess). Think Merkel is "fabulous". Wary of Muslims. Can't remember when the Berlin Wall fell (seriously, how is that possible?)
A lot of people struggle to remember who they voted for at the last election, let alone something that happen 2 years after I was born....
'Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.'
How about female chefs and staff in curry restaurants,every time the news shows a curry restaurant it seems to be an all male preserve.I have yet to see any female staff in the years that I have eaten in these restaurants.
Maybe Rupa didn't want to mention that,can't think why.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose).
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf
But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?").
Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
The ONS statistics on employment by country of birth and nationality paint a vastly different picture. The subsection of "Asian" includes all of SE and East Asia. Indians also have an employment rate comparable with the general population compared to around 55% for people born in Pakistan or Pakistani citizens living in the UK. Among that vast number of unemployed people, there will be those who have the necessary aptitude to work in a curry house, we just need to make sure the benefits system doesn't incentivise people to stay home rather than go out and get a job.
If I remember correctly from C4 analysis, those of Bangladeshi descent have even worse rates when it comes to education and employment. Indian and Chinese are the best "achievers" when it comes to those of immigrant descent.
The Curry house owners association always keep claiming they need more immigrant chefs, but never seem to have a good answer why they can't train UK nations (like most other businesses).
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose). www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?"). Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
Today's eavesdropping-on-people-sitting-next-to-me-at-lunch poll: Sample of 2. 1 seems Remain. Admires Cameron as a leader. 1 seems Leave. Quite admires Cameron but is worried the emergency brake could be struck down by the courts Both in their 50s (I guess). Think Merkel is "fabulous". Wary of Muslims. Can't remember when the Berlin Wall fell (seriously, how is that possible?)
A sample that reflects the 50/50 for the 45-54 yr range in chestnut's unweighted collation of polls.
I think EFTA/EEA has to be a question of belief - it would be rational for the EU to offer it, and rational for us to accept it. But @Richard_Nabavi will ask you to prove it, which can't be done.
No he won't. As I've said many times, I think an EEA-style deal would be quite easy to negotiate. Not automatic - there'd be a lot of detail to sort out - but it would be in everyone's interest to get a deal done and the EEA agreement forms a ready-made template.
My objection is that it's not worth the candle and would be actively worse than Remain in important respects, plus the fact that it would be a fraud upon those voters who thought this decision had something to do with the EU migrant crisis or EU immigration.
'Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.'
How about female chefs and staff in curry restaurants,every time the news shows a curry restaurant it seems to be an all male preserve.I have yet to see any female staff in the years that I have eaten in these restaurants.
Maybe Rupa didn't want to mention that,can't think why.
Our local has a female chef, well a husband and wife team anyway, he is the floor manager and she is the kitchen manager/head chef. Really good food as well, almost as good as my mum's cooking!
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose). www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?"). Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
Yes. Bernie is dead soon; his only chance is the Feds. David Herdson had a very good post at the weekend detailing how the timing of any FBI involvement would affect the nominee. Get on Biden at 120.0.
Thanks for highlighting that post by David. I hadn't seen it, and you are right, it is excellent.
Kind of you to say so. There may well be a thread coming out of it!
I agree with Wanderer's post downthread that Bernie's national polling is misleading. He'll lose SC and he'll do badly on ST. That should then be it for him - he's unlikely to have won anywhere outside New England while Hillary's lead in states, votes and delegates will be huge and the media narrative written. Had he won Iowa and Nevada, that'd be completely different but he didn't.
I wonder if the local conservatives will start to deselect some sitting MPs, must be a worry with the new constituences coming.
Depends on other events. Feldman is moving to restrict the Associations role in this on various rounds and there is the timetable waiting for the new boundaries to be set. This will just add to the friction inside the party but Cameron& Osborne seem to keep wanting to create fires inside the party.
I think I've come to the opinion that I would back Leave on two conditions:
1: That EFTA/EEA is a plausible alternative. 2: That Grassroots Out etc are not the official Leave campaign (linked to 1)
As a lifelong Remainer this is quite a break and feels like a shock. But the EZ performance for the last decade is corpse like and some quite convincing arguments that we could be more dynamic in the Single Market but out of the EU.
EFTA/EEA I think is plausible - but it will not make any difference to where we are now and I fail to see where the EZ acts any more for or against our prospects whether we are in or out of the EU. Does German industry suffer, do German exports suffer by being in the EU? The mega motive for leaving the EU is immigration - it is the driving force for what has become BNPlite - UKIP. But our immigration comes from far and wide and not just the EU - the majority of our immigration is non EU. You suggest that we can via the EEA still be in the single market, yes but that includes free EU movement. So the entire reason for leaving the EU and still having a coherent trade policy is totally bogus.
The notion that we do not join or remain in the EEA, ie cut away totally independent of anything, and are still able to maintain our lead status for EU inward investment is moot to say the least. And thats before we miraculously negotiate brilliantly selfishly successful trade deals out of thin air with a fawning grateful world! We can leave behind all the politics of the EU by joining the EEA but that means we have no say in the EU so how in the end does that help us or make any difference. The EU/EZ is here to stay and will still exert an influence over us. So does the fact that there would be no difference make any difference? Well I foresee a Leave vote unleashing all sorts of further controversy. Leave have no notion of what they want afterwards save wafty notions of sovereignty at best or crude anti immigrant notions at worst. I do not like the driving force of Leave or the drivers. They do not get my vote.
It is baffling. I don't really mind die-hard Europhiles who have always believed in the EU project, but if someone said to me the deal had persuaded them to vote Remain I would think that they are daft.
Can we have a thread on exactly what the situation with FBI and Clinton is?? I can't work out if this is just some minor wrongdoing where the FBI are covering their asses or if its a genuine threat to her.
The trend was away from the Tories at GE 2015 and we all know what hogwash that was... the polling industry has no idea if these polls are right or wrong.
The trend was away from the Tories at GE 2015 and we all know what hogwash that was... the polling industry has no idea if these polls are right or wrong.
Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses.... I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Less than you might think. White 5%, Asian 9% (female 10%, male 8%, again less difference than you might suppose).
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf
But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?").
Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
The ONS statistics on employment by country of birth and nationality paint a vastly different picture. The subsection of "Asian" includes all of SE and East Asia. Indians also have an employment rate comparable with the general population compared to around 55% for people born in Pakistan or Pakistani citizens living in the UK. Among that vast number of unemployed people, there will be those who have the necessary aptitude to work in a curry house, we just need to make sure the benefits system doesn't incentivise people to stay home rather than go out and get a job.
The bigger problem is how many are working cash in hand in a curry house etc already but continue to claim benefits while taking cash in hand. It's a problem with the whole industry and not just the race but probably disproportionately is higher there.
Problem Cameron has is not that he's pro-EU. Problem he has is the way he's not having a clean campaign. The gagging, the threats, the scaremongering, the dishonesty. A minor politician would be damaged by it, but a sitting PM simply can't get away with it not hurting him.
''My objection is that it's not worth the candle and would be actively worse than Remain in important respects, plus the fact that it would be a fraud upon those voters who thought this decision had something to do with the EU migrant crisis or EU immigration.''
OUT do need to spell out that a 'points system' for immigration will probably come at the expense of a good deal with the EU on free trade.
Indeed, in this campaign of hyperbole, a sober, clear message may actually be of benefit.
Although having pretty much decided to vote LEAVE, I have to say that I was hugely impressed by David Cameron's terrific performance in the House of Commons yesterday ..... a real tour de force to be sure. Answering dozens of very varied questions from all shades of political opinion he was totally in command of all the facts and figures. It is difficult to think of any leader in modern times who has delivered such an impressive performance. If and when he resigns as Prime Minister he will be a great loss to the HoC it has to be said, irrespective of one's personal political persuasion.
LOL! He's the Ted Heath of modern British politics. Though actually he's worse than Heath because at least Ted was honest about this EUPhillia unlike slimy Cameron.
Dave is just an opportunist and a liar (I see today he has been lying that he was actually a eurosceptic when he was LOTO but in office he's "come to his senses" LOL) I should imagine the vast majority of the Conservative Party are wondering whatever they've done having this clown as their leader - They should have just given Ken Clarke the leadership years ago... At least he'd have won the Tories a good majority against Brown in 2010.
A couple waited a week to claim a £32.5m National Lottery win because they were having their house decorated.Mrs Cannings, who still works as a teacher, said: "I know it sounds mad, but we had a guy in to paint the whole house. "We'd been planning it for ages and had packed everything into boxes. "We just thought it would be easier to wait."
The trend was away from the Tories at GE 2015 and we all know what hogwash that was... the polling industry has no idea if these polls are right or wrong.
My gut feel is remain will win with something to spare
I wonder if the local conservatives will start to deselect some sitting MPs, must be a worry with the new constituences coming.
Depends on other events. Feldman is moving to restrict the Associations role in this on various rounds and there is the timetable waiting for the new boundaries to be set. This will just add to the friction inside the party but Cameron& Osborne seem to keep wanting to create fires inside the party.
Problem Cameron has is not that he's pro-EU. Problem he has is the way he's not having a clean campaign. The gagging, the threats, the scaremongering, the dishonesty. A minor politician would be damaged by it, but a sitting PM simply can't get away with it not hurting him.
Yes it's just like old times!!! Threats gagging deals dishonesty.. of course the the Booers are squeaky clean with not a single untruth...and of course we know how truthful the papers are.....
Personally I think turnout is key for the Presidentials. Romney lost due to the pathetic share of the white vote he picked up, due both to his failure to address the national question on immigration and affirmative action, as well as his plutocratic background restructuring Rust Belt industrials. Now these whites didn't vote for Obama instead, they just simply didn't vote. Trump is showing he has the policies and persona to get these blue collar workers to the polls.
Secondly Obama got blacks to vote as even more of a block than usual, and in huge numbers. I don't see HRC repeating this trick, for obvious reasons. Not only do I expect the black vote to fall, but I expect Trump to pick up more of a Reaganesque 15% or better, much better than the usual GOP 5% average with blacks when they choose their usual policies of pandering.
As for Hispanics they remain a small fraction of the vote, with most not bothering to vote, and when they do concentrated in a state like California where they are meaningless. Trump could afford to take a minor hit there.
Hispanics are 18% of electorate in Florida, 21% of Arizona, 15% of Colorado. Republicans need all three to win.
Yes. Bernie is dead soon; his only chance is the Feds. David Herdson had a very good post at the weekend detailing how the timing of any FBI involvement would affect the nominee. Get on Biden at 120.0.
Thanks for highlighting that post by David. I hadn't seen it, and you are right, it is excellent.
Kind of you to say so. There may well be a thread coming out of it!
I agree with Wanderer's post downthread that Bernie's national polling is misleading. He'll lose SC and he'll do badly on ST. That should then be it for him - he's unlikely to have won anywhere outside New England while Hillary's lead in states, votes and delegates will be huge and the media narrative written. Had he won Iowa and Nevada, that'd be completely different but he didn't.
One point to add to your post about Hillary: anyone betting on these markets needs to check the exact terms of settlement when thinking about the various possibilities you highlighted.
EFTA/EEA I think is plausible - but it will not make any difference to where we are now and I fail to see where the EZ acts any more for or against our prospects whether we are in or out of the EU. Does German industry suffer, do German exports suffer by being in the EU? The mega motive for leaving the EU is immigration - it is the driving force for what has become BNPlite - UKIP. But our immigration comes from far and wide and not just the EU - the majority of our immigration is non EU. You suggest that we can via the EEA still be in the single market, yes but that includes free EU movement. So the entire reason for leaving the EU and still having a coherent trade policy is totally bogus.
The notion that we do not join or remain in the EEA, ie cut away totally independent of anything, and are still able to maintain our lead status for EU inward investment is moot to say the least. And thats before we miraculously negotiate brilliantly selfishly successful trade deals out of thin air with a fawning grateful world! We can leave behind all the politics of the EU by joining the EEA but that means we have no say in the EU so how in the end does that help us or make any difference. The EU/EZ is here to stay and will still exert an influence over us. So does the fact that there would be no difference make any difference? Well I foresee a Leave vote unleashing all sorts of further controversy. Leave have no notion of what they want afterwards save wafty notions of sovereignty at best or crude anti immigrant notions at worst. I do not like the driving force of Leave or the drivers. They do not get my vote.
I'm probably Free Movement. So that continuing if we go EEA/EFTA is a good thing not a bad thing.
The pros that have convinced me that switching is better are signing new trade deals and losing a lot of regulations. It would not be miraculous to sign new trade deals, other nations have managed it. The difference is that in the EU we negotiate to the lowest common denominator so if the French want to protect their farmers from Kiwi farmers then free trade with New Zealand is impossible etc - if we go by ourselves we don't need to worry about lowest common denominator. Plus as the world's fifth biggest economy we are a good market to trade with.
As for regulations apparently according to Gove and Hannan the EFTA nations implement less than 10% of EU regulations and even those are typically global standards that would be implemented anyway. So we lose stuff we don't need.
I agree that the crude anti immigration notions don't get my vote which is why a Grassroots Out or UKIP led leave campaign will not get my vote.
Yes. Bernie is dead soon; his only chance is the Feds. David Herdson had a very good post at the weekend detailing how the timing of any FBI involvement would affect the nominee. Get on Biden at 120.0.
Thanks for highlighting that post by David. I hadn't seen it, and you are right, it is excellent.
Kind of you to say so. There may well be a thread coming out of it!
I agree with Wanderer's post downthread that Bernie's national polling is misleading. He'll lose SC and he'll do badly on ST. That should then be it for him - he's unlikely to have won anywhere outside New England while Hillary's lead in states, votes and delegates will be huge and the media narrative written. Had he won Iowa and Nevada, that'd be completely different but he didn't.
One point to add to your post about Hillary: anyone betting on these markets needs to check the exact terms of settlement when thinking about the various possibilities you highlighted.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2016 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
Would have been the other way around in the 1970's.
The 75 refernedum was the start of the split that kept Labour out of power for 18 years. Will that, ultimately, be Cameron and Osborne's legacy? A party divided, destroyed and ruined for a generation?
Andrew Neil And don't forget the plague of lizards. Any chance of positive case for staying in EU? https://t.co/OBzgSdyBBV
It's the same old, same old though.
We couldn't leave the ERM because the sky was going to fall in. We had to join the Euro because the country would be in ruins within months of the mighty currency being launched.
We hear this defeatist nonsense constantly with the EU and usually the reality turns out to be the opposite of what the doomsters predicted.
Comments
I'm sticking with 57-62% Remain.
If we do, we will get the relationship with the EU we deserve.
'Tory leader in name alone – not now in spirit, nor possibly ever again – Mr Cameron came to the House to tell MPs about his European negotiation.
He entered the House shortly before 3.30pm. A few of his trusties expressed vocal acclaim at the sight of him. Many more sat in silence.'
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3459335/The-hatred-naked-leaves-metallic-tang-tongue-QUENTIN-LETTS-watches-PM-personal-belittles-Brexit-Boris-Commons.html#ixzz40zvOjRZe
People respect integrity, even in their opponents, but mostly hate being taken for a ride.
Secondly Obama got blacks to vote as even more of a block than usual, and in huge numbers. I don't see HRC repeating this trick, for obvious reasons. Not only do I expect the black vote to fall, but I expect Trump to pick up more of a Reaganesque 15% or better, much better than the usual GOP 5% average with blacks when they choose their usual policies of pandering.
As for Hispanics they remain a small fraction of the vote, with most not bothering to vote, and when they do concentrated in a state like California where they are meaningless. Trump could afford to take a minor hit there.
18-24...74:26 Remain
25-34...68:32 Remain
25-39...60:40 Remain
35-44...57:43 Remain
45-54...49:51 Leave
35-64...47:53 Leave
55-64...46:54 Leave
65+......41:59 Leave
40-59... 37:63 Leave (YG only)
55+.......39:61 Leave (TNS only)
60+.......31:69 Leave (YG only)
*not weighted by sample size
Key takeaway from Cameron's roadshow - In have an agreed stump speech - Out don't - https://t.co/eEqzwpo8Jk
Manchester and Liverpool failing to give many a decent education - Ofsted boss https://t.co/f8B2tz6c84 https://t.co/gGySttQKQ3
1: That EFTA/EEA is a plausible alternative.
2: That Grassroots Out etc are not the official Leave campaign (linked to 1)
As a lifelong Remainer this is quite a break and feels like a shock. But the EZ performance for the last decade is corpse like and some quite convincing arguments that we could be more dynamic in the Single Market but out of the EU.
I don't honestly think the delegate totals are all that important at the moment - there's less than 5% of the pledged delegates decided so far - but that all changes come March (I will be doing a thread on this). Fully two-thirds of pledged GOP delegates will have been decided upon by March 22 (subject to state conventions and the like). Unless one of the other candidates can break through to challenge Trump then he'll ride to a very comfortable victory. At the moment, I don't see that happening.
If we vote Remain, then Britain will be better off joining Euro. If we're in, we're in.
This half-arsed negotiation is the worse of both worlds.
Leave, or go all in and join the Euro.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahjewell/eurl#.rrWKpovaW
#Breaking London Stock Exchange confirms talks over merger with Deutsche Boerse to create European "global markets infrastructure group"
Are you? How sad.
Southend West MP Sir David Amess will vote for the UK to Leave the EU.
New: Dover MP Charlie Elphick for remain - on grounds of borders being safer
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06385.pdf
But anyway demographic group doesn't necessarily indicate aptitude or inclination. Would you make a good chef in a restaurant offering roast beef and other British specialties? Good on you if so, I'd be useless ("where's the microwave, man?").
Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/02/23/all-welsh-eu-referendum-polls-so-far/
Dave is just an opportunist and a liar (I see today he has been lying that he was actually a eurosceptic when he was LOTO but in office he's "come to his senses" LOL) I should imagine the vast majority of the Conservative Party are wondering whatever they've done having this clown as their leader - They should have just given Ken Clarke the leadership years ago... At least he'd have won the Tories a good majority against Brown in 2010.
Disclaimer: Give than I've got a big red on Rubio, I hope I'm not talking my book.
How can anyone be "persuaded" by this deal?
Anyone who has gone from Out to In on the back of the negotiation has no credibility whatsoever.
Sample of 2.
1 seems Remain. Admires Cameron as a leader.
1 seems Leave. Quite admires Cameron but is worried the emergency brake could be struck down by the courts
Both in their 50s (I guess). Think Merkel is "fabulous". Wary of Muslims. Can't remember when the Berlin Wall fell (seriously, how is that possible?)
I think EFTA/EEA has to be a question of belief - it would be rational for the EU to offer it, and rational for us to accept it. But @Richard_Nabavi will ask you to prove it, which can't be done.
The Curry house owners association always keep claiming they need more immigrant chefs, but never seem to have a good answer why they can't train UK nations (like most other businesses). Given the high rates of unemployment, poor formal qualifications, it would seem there like there is a really good untapped labour market for them right here in the UK.
http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2012/10/young-black-men-have-experienced-sharpest-unemployment-rise-since-2010/
'Rupa's point is that there are plenty of expert chefs with 10+ years of experience who could come in, rather than trying to drag some youngster in who'd rather be a mechanic or a salesman.'
How about female chefs and staff in curry restaurants,every time the news shows a curry restaurant it seems to be an all male preserve.I have yet to see any female staff in the years that I have eaten in these restaurants.
Maybe Rupa didn't want to mention that,can't think why.
My objection is that it's not worth the candle and would be actively worse than Remain in important respects, plus the fact that it would be a fraud upon those voters who thought this decision had something to do with the EU migrant crisis or EU immigration.
I agree with Wanderer's post downthread that Bernie's national polling is misleading. He'll lose SC and he'll do badly on ST. That should then be it for him - he's unlikely to have won anywhere outside New England while Hillary's lead in states, votes and delegates will be huge and the media narrative written. Had he won Iowa and Nevada, that'd be completely different but he didn't.
I should think Leave must now be up to 130 Conservative MPs.
Does German industry suffer, do German exports suffer by being in the EU?
The mega motive for leaving the EU is immigration - it is the driving force for what has become BNPlite - UKIP. But our immigration comes from far and wide and not just the EU - the majority of our immigration is non EU. You suggest that we can via the EEA still be in the single market, yes but that includes free EU movement. So the entire reason for leaving the EU and still having a coherent trade policy is totally bogus.
The notion that we do not join or remain in the EEA, ie cut away totally independent of anything, and are still able to maintain our lead status for EU inward investment is moot to say the least. And thats before we miraculously negotiate brilliantly selfishly successful trade deals out of thin air with a fawning grateful world!
We can leave behind all the politics of the EU by joining the EEA but that means we have no say in the EU so how in the end does that help us or make any difference. The EU/EZ is here to stay and will still exert an influence over us.
So does the fact that there would be no difference make any difference? Well I foresee a Leave vote unleashing all sorts of further controversy. Leave have no notion of what they want afterwards save wafty notions of sovereignty at best or crude anti immigrant notions at worst. I do not like the driving force of Leave or the drivers. They do not get my vote.
OUT do need to spell out that a 'points system' for immigration will probably come at the expense of a good deal with the EU on free trade.
Indeed, in this campaign of hyperbole, a sober, clear message may actually be of benefit.
A few MPs sporting Chinese burns no doubt.....
"Irrelevant".
Conservative
In 145
████████████████▌
Out 140
████████████████
Labour
In 220
█████████████████████████
Out 9
█
https://www.nojam.com/post/653
The pros that have convinced me that switching is better are signing new trade deals and losing a lot of regulations. It would not be miraculous to sign new trade deals, other nations have managed it. The difference is that in the EU we negotiate to the lowest common denominator so if the French want to protect their farmers from Kiwi farmers then free trade with New Zealand is impossible etc - if we go by ourselves we don't need to worry about lowest common denominator. Plus as the world's fifth biggest economy we are a good market to trade with.
As for regulations apparently according to Gove and Hannan the EFTA nations implement less than 10% of EU regulations and even those are typically global standards that would be implemented anyway. So we lose stuff we don't need.
I agree that the crude anti immigration notions don't get my vote which is why a Grassroots Out or UKIP led leave campaign will not get my vote.
The 75 refernedum was the start of the split that kept Labour out of power for 18 years. Will that, ultimately, be Cameron and Osborne's legacy? A party divided, destroyed and ruined for a generation?
And don't forget the plague of lizards. Any chance of positive case for staying in EU? https://t.co/OBzgSdyBBV
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e90885d8-d3db-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz40tht1xkE
We couldn't leave the ERM because the sky was going to fall in. We had to join the Euro because the country would be in ruins within months of the mighty currency being launched.
We hear this defeatist nonsense constantly with the EU and usually the reality turns out to be the opposite of what the doomsters predicted.
That's manna from heaven for UKIP in Dover !